ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Pauly - Fisheries biologist
Daniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean.

Why you should listen

Daniel Pauly heads the Sea Around Us Project, based at the Fisheries Centre, at the University of British Columbia. Pauly has been a leader in conceptualizing and codeveloping software that’s used by ocean experts throughout the world. At the Sea Around Us and in his other work, he’s developing new ways to view complex ocean data.

Pauly’s work includes the Ecopath ecological/ecosystem modeling software suite; the massive FishBase, the online encyclopaedia of fishes; and, increasingly, the quantitative results of the Sea Around Us Project.

Read Mission Blue's interview with Daniel Pauly >>

More profile about the speaker
Daniel Pauly | Speaker | TED.com
Mission Blue Voyage

Daniel Pauly: The ocean's shifting baseline

Daniel Pauly: Promjena osnove oceana

Filmed:
254,411 views

Ocean se razgradio tijekom našeg životnog vijeka, što je prikazano smanjivanjem prosječne veličine ribe. I svejedno, što nam Daniel Pauly pokazuje na pozornici Mission Bluea, svaki put kad osnovica padne, mi ju zovemo novom „normalom“. Kada ćemo prestati pomicati granicu prema dolje?
- Fisheries biologist
Daniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
I'm going to speakgovoriti
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Pričat ću
00:14
about a tinysićušan, little ideaideja.
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o jednoj sitnoj ideji.
00:17
And this is about shiftingpremještanje baselineosnovica.
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I to o promjeni osnove.
00:21
And because the ideaideja can be explainedobjašnjen in one minuteminuta,
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Kako ta ideja može biti objašnjena u jednoj minuti,
00:25
I will tell you threetri storiespriče before
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prije nje ću vam ispričati tri priče
00:28
to fillispuniti in the time.
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da popunim vrijeme.
00:30
And the first storypriča
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Prva priča je
00:32
is about CharlesCharles DarwinDarwin, one of my heroesheroji.
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o Charlesu Darwinu, jednom od mojih heroja.
00:35
And he was here, as you well know, in '35.
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On je bio ovdje, kao što svi dobro znate, u '35.
00:38
And you'dti bi think he was chasingjurnjava finchesFinches,
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I mislili biste da je tražio zebe,
00:40
but he wasn'tnije.
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ali nije.
00:42
He was actuallyzapravo collectingprikupljanje fishriba.
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Ustvari je sakupljao ribu.
00:44
And he describedopisan one of them
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I jednu od njih je opisao
00:46
as very "commonzajednička."
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kao jako "uobičajenu".
00:48
This was the sailfinsailfin grouperŠkarpina.
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To je bila Mycteroperca olfax.
00:50
A bigvelika fisheryribarstva was runtrčanje on it
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Do '80-ih su je
00:52
untildo the '80s.
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mnogo lovili.
00:55
Now the fishriba is on the IUCNIUCN RedCrveni ListPopis.
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Sada je ta riba na IUCN-ovom (Međunarodni savez za očuvanje prirode) crvenom popisu.
00:58
Now this storypriča,
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Ta priča,
01:00
we have heardčuo it lots of timesputa
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čuli smo je puno puta
01:03
on GalapagosGalapagos and other placesmjesta,
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na Galapagosu i ostalim mjestima
01:05
so there is nothing particularposebno about it.
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pa nije ništa posebno.
01:08
But the pointtočka is, we still come to GalapagosGalapagos.
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Ali poanta je, svejedno dolazimo na Galapagos.
01:11
We still think it is pristineprastar.
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Još uvijek mislimo da je nedirnut.
01:14
The brochuresbrošure still say
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Brošure još uvijek kažu
01:17
it is untouchednetaknut.
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da je netaknut.
01:19
So what happensdogađa se here?
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Što se događa ovdje?
01:22
The seconddrugi storypriča, alsotakođer to illustrateilustrirati anotherjoš conceptkoncept,
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Druga priča, također da ilustriram jedan drugi koncept,
01:25
is calledzvao shiftingpremještanje waistlinestruk.
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zove se promjena obujma struka.
01:27
(LaughterSmijeh)
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(Smijeh)
01:30
Because I was there in '71,
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Zato što sam proučavao lagunu
01:32
studyingučenje a lagoonlaguna in WestZapad AfricaAfrika.
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u Zapadnoj Africi '71.
01:34
I was there because I grewrastao up in EuropeEurope
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Bio sam tamo jer sam odrastao u Europi
01:37
and I wanted laterkasnije to work in AfricaAfrika.
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i želio sam kasnije raditi u Africi.
01:39
And I thought I could blendspoj in.
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I pomislio sam da ću se uspjeti uklopiti.
01:41
And I got a bigvelika sunburnopekline od sunca,
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Zadobio sam veliku opekotinu od sunca
01:43
and I was convinceduvjeren that I was really not from there.
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i bio sam uvjeren da nisam zapravo od tamo.
01:46
This was my first sunburnopekline od sunca.
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To je bila moja prva opekotina.
01:48
And the lagoonlaguna
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Laguna je
01:51
was surroundedokružen by palmdlan treesstabla,
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bila okružena palmama,
01:53
as you can see, and a fewnekoliko mangrovemangrova.
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kao što možete vidjeti, i par mangrova.
01:55
And it had tilapiatilapija
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Imala je tilapije
01:57
about 20 centimeterscentimetara,
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duge oko 20 centimetara,
01:59
a speciesvrsta of tilapiatilapija calledzvao blackchinblackchin tilapiatilapija.
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vrstu tilapije koja se zove crnobradata tilapija.
02:01
And the fisheriesribarstvo for this tilapiatilapija
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Ribolov na tilapije
02:03
sustainedneprekidan lots of fishriba and they had a good time
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sadržavao je mnoštvo ribe i dobro e išao
02:06
and they earnedzarađen more than averageprosječan
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te se zaradilo više nego u prosjeku
02:08
in GhanaGana.
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u Gani.
02:10
When I wentotišao there 27 yearsgodina laterkasnije,
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Kada sam otišao tamo 27 godina kasnije,
02:13
the fishriba had shrunksmanjila to halfpola of theirnjihov sizeveličina.
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riba se smanjila na pola svoje veličine.
02:16
They were maturingsazrijevanje at fivepet centimeterscentimetara.
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Sazrijevale su s pet centimetra.
02:18
They had been pushedgurnula geneticallygenetski.
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Potaknute su genetski.
02:20
There were still fishesriba.
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Još je bilo ribe.
02:22
They were still kindljubazan of happysretan.
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I ribari su još uvijek na neki način bili sretni.
02:24
And the fishriba alsotakođer were happysretan to be there.
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I ribe su bile sretne što su tamo.
02:29
So nothing has changedpromijenjen,
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Ništa se nije promijenilo,
02:31
but everything has changedpromijenjen.
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ali sve se promijenilo.
02:33
My thirdtreći little storypriča
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Moja treća pričica jest
02:35
is that I was an accomplicesuučesnik
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da sam bio suučesnik
02:37
in the introductionUvod of trawlingkoćarenje
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početaka kočarenja
02:39
in SoutheastJugoistočne AsiaAsia.
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u južnoistočnoj Aziji.
02:41
In the '70s -- well, beginningpočetak in the '60s --
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U 70-ima – pa, s početkom u 60-ima –
02:44
EuropeEurope did lots of developmentrazvoj projectsprojekti.
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Europa je radila na mnogo razvojnih projekata.
02:47
FishRiba developmentrazvoj
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Unaprijeđenje ribarstva
02:49
meantznačilo imposingimpozantan on countrieszemlje
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je značilo nametanje
02:51
that had alreadyveć 100,000 fishersribarima
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industrijskog ribarstva
02:54
to imposenametnuti on them industrialindustrijski fishingribolov.
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na zemlje koje već imaju 100 000 ribara.
02:57
And this boatčamac, quitedosta uglyružan,
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Brod se zvao, prilično ružno,
02:59
is calledzvao the MutiaraTak 4.
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Mutiara 4.
03:01
And I wentotišao sailingjedrenje on it,
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Plovio sam se na njemu,
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and we did surveysankete
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i istraživali smo
03:06
throughoutkroz the southernjužni SouthJug ChinaKina seamore
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cijelu južnu stranu Južnog kineskog mora,
03:09
and especiallyposebno the JavaJava SeaMore.
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a posebno Javansko more.
03:11
And what we caughtzatečen,
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Ostali smo bez riječi
03:13
we didn't have wordsriječi for it.
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zbog onoga što smo uhvatili.
03:15
What we caughtzatečen, I know now,
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Sada znam, da je ono što smo uhvatili
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is the bottomdno of the seamore.
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bilo dno mora.
03:20
And 90 percentposto of our catchulov
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90 posto našeg ulova
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were spongesspužve,
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bile su spužve,
03:24
other animalsživotinje that are fixedfiksni on the bottomdno.
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ostale životinje koje su čvrsto na dnu.
03:27
And actuallyzapravo mostnajviše of the fishriba,
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I zapravo, većina ribe,
03:29
they are a little spotmjesto on the debriskrhotine,
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bile su male točke smeća,
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the pileshrpe of debriskrhotine, were coralkoraljni reefgreben fishriba.
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hrpe smeća, bile su ribe koraljnih grebena.
03:34
EssentiallyU suštini the bottomdno of the seamore camedošao ontona the deckpaluba
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U biti, dno mora se diglo na palubu
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and then was thrownbačen down.
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i onda bilo bačeno dolje.
03:38
And these picturesSlike are extraordinaryizvanredan
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Ove slike su izvanredne
03:41
because this transitiontranzicija is very rapidbrz.
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jer je taj prijelaz veoma brz.
03:44
WithinU roku od a yeargodina, you do a surveypregled
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U jednoj godini, napraviš istraživanje
03:47
and then commercialtrgovački fishingribolov beginspočinje.
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i onda komercijalno ribarstvo počinje.
03:49
The bottomdno is transformedpretvara
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Dno je promijenjeno
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from, in this casespis, a hardteško bottomdno or softmekan coralkoraljni
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iz, u ovom slučaju, tvrdog dna ili mekanog koralja
03:54
into a muddymješaj messnered.
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u blatni nered.
03:57
This is a deadmrtav turtlekornjača.
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Ovo je mrtva kornjača.
03:59
They were not eatenjede, they were thrownbačen away because they were deadmrtav.
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Nisu pojedene, bačene su, zato što su mrtve.
04:02
And one time we caughtzatečen a liveživjeti one.
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Jednom smo uhvatili živu kornjaču.
04:04
It was not drownedutopio se yetjoš.
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Još se nije utopila.
04:06
And then they wanted to killubiti it because it was good to eatjesti.
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I onda su je htjeli ubiti jer je bila jestiva.
04:09
This mountainplanina of debriskrhotine
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Ovu planina smeća
04:12
is actuallyzapravo collectedprikupljeni by fishersribarima
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ustvari skupe ribari
04:15
everysvaki time they go
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svaki put kada odu
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into an areapodručje that's never been fishedribu.
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u područje u kojem se još nije lovilo.
04:19
But it's not documenteddokumentirati.
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Ali to nije dokumentirano.
04:21
We transformtransformirati the worldsvijet,
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Mijenjamo svijet,
04:23
but we don't rememberzapamtiti it.
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ali to ne pamtimo.
04:25
We adjustprilagoditi our baselineosnovica
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Pomičemo osnovicu
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to the newnovi levelnivo,
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na novu razinu,
04:30
and we don't recallpodsjetiti what was there.
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a ne sjećamo se što je bilo tamo.
04:34
If you generalizegeneralizirati this,
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Ako generaliziramo,
04:36
something like this happensdogađa se.
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nešto takvo se događa.
04:38
You have on the y axisos some good thing:
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Na y osi imamo neke dobre stvari:
04:41
biodiversitybiološke raznolikosti, numbersbrojevi of orcaOrca,
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biološku raznolikost, broj orki,
04:44
the greennesszelenilo of your countryzemlja, the watervoda supplyOpskrba.
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zelenilo u državi, zalihu vode.
04:47
And over time it changespromjene --
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I s vremenom se to mijenja.
04:49
it changespromjene
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Mijenja se
04:51
because people do things, or naturallyprirodno.
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jer ljudi sve rade prirodno.
04:53
EverySvaki generationgeneracija
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Svaka generacija
04:55
will use the imagesslika
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će koristiti slike
04:57
that they got at the beginningpočetak of theirnjihov conscioussvjestan livesživot
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koje su dobili na početku svog svjesnog života
05:00
as a standardstandard
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kao standard
05:02
and will extrapolateizvesti forwardnaprijed.
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i procijenit će vrijednost dalje.
05:04
And the differencerazlika then,
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I razliku će tada vidjeti
05:06
they perceivedoživljavaju as a lossgubitak.
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kao gubitak.
05:08
But they don't perceivedoživljavaju what happeneddogodilo before as a lossgubitak.
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Ali ne primjećuju što se dogodilo prije kao gubitak.
05:11
You can have a successionsukcesije of changespromjene.
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I možete imati slijed promjena.
05:13
At the endkraj you want to sustainodržati
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Na kraju želite zadržati
05:16
miserablebijedan leftoversostatke.
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jadne ostatke.
05:19
And that, to a largeveliki extentopseg, is what we want to do now.
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I to je to ono što želimo napraviti sada.
05:22
We want to sustainodržati things that are goneotišao
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Želimo zadržati stvari koje su nestale
05:25
or things that are not the way they were.
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ili stvari koje više nisu kakve su bile.
05:29
Now one should think
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Čovjek bi trebao misliti
05:31
this problemproblem affectedpogođeni people
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da je ovaj problem pogodio ljude
05:33
certainlysigurno when in predatorypljačkaški societiesdruštva,
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u predatorskim društvima,
05:37
they killedubijen animalsživotinje
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ubijali su životinje
05:39
and they didn't know they had doneučinio so
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i nisu znali što su napravili
05:41
after a fewnekoliko generationsgeneracije.
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generacijama dalje.
05:43
Because, obviouslyočito,
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Očito,
05:46
an animalživotinja that is very abundantobilan,
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životinja koje ima u velikom broju,
05:51
before it getsdobiva extinctizumro,
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prije nego izumre,
05:54
it becomespostaje rarerijedak.
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postane rijetka vrsta.
05:57
So you don't loseizgubiti abundantobilan animalsživotinje.
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Ne izgubite vrste kojih ima mnogo.
06:00
You always loseizgubiti rarerijedak animalsživotinje.
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Uvijek izgubite one koje su rijetke.
06:02
And thereforestoga they're not perceivedpercipiraju
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I tako nisu gledane
06:04
as a bigvelika lossgubitak.
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kao veliki gubitak.
06:06
Over time,
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S vremenom
06:08
we concentratekoncentrat on largeveliki animalsživotinje,
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se koncentriramo na velike životinje,
06:10
and in a seamore that meanssredstva the bigvelika fishriba.
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a u moru to znači velike ribe.
06:12
They becomepostati rarerrjeđe because we fishriba them.
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Postanu rijetke jer ih lovimo.
06:15
Over time we have a fewnekoliko fishriba left
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S vremenom nam ostane nekoliko riba
06:17
and we think this is the baselineosnovica.
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i mi mislimo da je to osnova.
06:20
And the questionpitanje is,
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Pitanje je:
06:22
why do people acceptprihvatiti this?
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Zašto ljudi to prihvaćaju?
06:27
Well because they don't know that it was differentdrugačiji.
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Zato što ne znaju da je bilo drugačije.
06:30
And in factčinjenica, lots of people, scientistsznanstvenici,
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I zapravo, mnogo ljudi, znanstvenika,
06:33
will contestNatjecanje that it was really differentdrugačiji.
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osporavati će da je to potpuno drugačije.
06:35
And they will contestNatjecanje this
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A osporavat će to zato što
06:37
because the evidencedokaz
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zato što dokaz koji
06:39
presentedpredstavili in an earlierranije modenačin
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koji je prikazan ranije,
06:44
is not in the way
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nije onakav
06:47
they would like the evidencedokaz presentedpredstavili.
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kakav bi oni htjeli da je prikazan.
06:49
For exampleprimjer,
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Na primjer,
06:51
the anecdoteanegdota that some presentpredstaviti,
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anegdota koju neki prikazuju,
06:53
as CaptainKapetan so-and-sotako i tako
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kapetan taj-i-taj
06:55
observedpromatranom lots of fishriba in this areapodručje
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opazio je mnogo ribe u tom području,
06:58
cannotNe možete be used
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znanstvenici ribarstva
07:00
or is usuallyobično not utilizedkoristi by fisheryribarstva scientistsznanstvenici,
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ne mogu to iskoristiti,
07:03
because it's not "scientificznanstvena."
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jer nije "znanstveno".
07:05
So you have a situationsituacija
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Dakle, imate situaciju
07:07
where people don't know the pastprošlost,
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gdje ljudi ne znaju prošlost,
07:10
even thoughiako we liveživjeti in literatepismen societiesdruštva,
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iako živimo u pismenom društvu,
07:13
because they don't trustpovjerenje
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jer ne vjeruju
07:15
the sourcesizvori of the pastprošlost.
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izvorima prošlosti.
07:18
And hencestoga, the enormousogroman roleuloga
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I stoga, ogromna je uloga
07:21
that a marinemarinac protectedzaštićeni areapodručje can playigrati.
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koju zaštita mora može igrati.
07:23
Because with marinemarinac protectedzaštićeni areaspodručja,
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Zato što sa zaštitom područja mora,
07:26
we actuallyzapravo recreateponovno the pastprošlost.
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mi zapravo ponovno stvaramo prošlost.
07:30
We recreateponovno the pastprošlost that people cannotNe možete conceivezačeti
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Ponovno stvaramo prošlost koju ljudi ne mogu shvatiti,
07:33
because the baselineosnovica has shiftedpomaknut
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zato što se osnova promijenila
07:35
and is extremelykrajnje lownizak.
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i ekstremno je niska.
07:37
That is for people
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To je za ljude
07:39
who can see a marinemarinac protectedzaštićeni areapodručje
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koji mogu vidjeti zaštićeno područje mora
07:44
and who can benefitkorist
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i koji se mogu okoristiti
07:46
from the insightuvid that it providespruža,
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uvidom koji pruža,
07:49
whichkoji enablesomogućuje them to resetVrati izvorno theirnjihov baselineosnovica.
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što im omogućuje da ponovno postave svoju osnovu.
07:53
How about the people who can't do that
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Što s ljudima koji to ne mogu napraviti
07:55
because they have no accesspristup --
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jer nemaju pristup –
07:57
the people in the MidwestMidwest for exampleprimjer?
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ljudi sa Srednjeg Zapada, na primjer?
08:00
There I think
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Mislim da tamo
08:02
that the artsumjetnost and filmfilm
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to može nadomjestiti
08:04
can perhapsmožda fillispuniti the gappraznina,
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umjetnost, film
08:06
and simulationsimuliranje.
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i simulacija.
08:08
This is a simulationsimuliranje of ChesapeakeChesapeake BayZaljev.
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Ovo je simulacija Chesapeake zaljeva.
08:11
There were graysiva whaleskitovi in ChesapeakeChesapeake BayZaljev a long time agoprije --
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Prije mnogo vremena u Chesapeake zaljevu postojali su sivi kitovi --
08:13
500 yearsgodina agoprije.
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prije 500 godina.
08:15
And you will have noticedprimijetio that the huesnijanse and tonestonovi
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I možete primijetiti da su boje i nijanse
08:18
are like "AvatarAvatar."
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kao u "Avataru".
08:20
(LaughterSmijeh)
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(Smijeh)
08:22
And if you think about "AvatarAvatar,"
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Ako razmislite o "Avataru",
08:24
if you think of why people were so touchedganut by it --
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ako razmislite zašto su ljudi toliko dirnuti njime –
08:27
never mindum the PocahontasPocahontas storypriča --
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zanemarite priču o Pocahontas –
08:31
why so touchedganut by the imagerylik?
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zašto su toliko dirnuti izgledom?
08:35
Because it evokespriziva something
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Zato što on budi nešto
08:38
that in a senseosjećaj has been lostizgubljen.
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što je izgubljeno.
08:40
And so my recommendationpreporuka,
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Pa je moja preporuka,
08:42
it's the only one I will providepružiti,
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jedina koju ću dati,
08:44
is for CameronCameron to do "AvatarAvatar IIII" underwaterpod vodom.
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da Cameron napravi "Avatar II" pod vodom.
08:49
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala.
08:51
(ApplausePljesak)
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(Pljesak)
Translated by Senzos Osijek
Reviewed by Suzana Barić

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Pauly - Fisheries biologist
Daniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean.

Why you should listen

Daniel Pauly heads the Sea Around Us Project, based at the Fisheries Centre, at the University of British Columbia. Pauly has been a leader in conceptualizing and codeveloping software that’s used by ocean experts throughout the world. At the Sea Around Us and in his other work, he’s developing new ways to view complex ocean data.

Pauly’s work includes the Ecopath ecological/ecosystem modeling software suite; the massive FishBase, the online encyclopaedia of fishes; and, increasingly, the quantitative results of the Sea Around Us Project.

Read Mission Blue's interview with Daniel Pauly >>

More profile about the speaker
Daniel Pauly | Speaker | TED.com