ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Laurie Santos - Cognitive psychologist
Laurie Santos studies primate psychology and monkeynomics -- testing problems in human psychology on primates, who (not so surprisingly) have many of the same predictable irrationalities we do.

Why you should listen

Laurie Santos runs the Comparative Cognition Laboratory (CapLab) at Yale, where she and collaborators across departments (from psychology to primatology to neurobiology) explore the evolutionary origins of the human mind by studying lemurs, capuchin monkeys and other primates. The twist: Santos looks not only for positive humanlike traits, like tool-using and altruism, but irrational ones, like biased decisionmaking.

In elegant, carefully constructed experiments, Santos and CapLab have studied how primates understand and categorize objects in the physical world -- for instance, that monkeys understand an object is still whole even when part of it is obscured. Going deeper, their experiments also search for clues that primates possess a theory of mind -- an ability to think about what other people think.

Most recently, the lab has been looking at behaviors that were once the province mainly of novelists: jealousy, frustration, judgment of others' intentions, poor economic choices. In one experiment, Santos and her team taught monkeys to use a form of money, tradeable for food. When certain foods became cheaper, monkeys would, like humans, overbuy. As we humans search for clues to our own irrational behaviors, Santos' research suggests that the source of our genius for bad decisions might be our monkey brains.

More profile about the speaker
Laurie Santos | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2010

Laurie Santos: A monkey economy as irrational as ours

劳瑞 珊图斯谈猴子社会的经济系统和我们的一样不合逻辑

Filmed:
1,506,660 views

劳瑞 珊图斯通过观察 我们的灵长类亲戚作决策,研究人类的不合逻辑的决策的根源。一系列在“猴子经济社会”中经典实验向我们展示了猴子和我们一样,常做出不明智的决策来。
- Cognitive psychologist
Laurie Santos studies primate psychology and monkeynomics -- testing problems in human psychology on primates, who (not so surprisingly) have many of the same predictable irrationalities we do. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:17
I want to start开始 my talk today今天 with two observations意见
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我想以两个关于人类物种的现象
00:19
about the human人的 species种类.
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开始今天的话题
00:21
The first observation意见 is something that you might威力 think is quite相当 obvious明显,
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第一个现象也许你会觉得显而易见
00:24
and that's that our species种类, Homo智人 sapiens智人,
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这就是 我们的物种 智人
00:26
is actually其实 really, really smart聪明 --
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事实上非常非常的聪明
00:28
like, ridiculously可笑 smart聪明 --
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聪明的无法形容
00:30
like you're all doing things
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正如你们现在做的事情
00:32
that no other species种类 on the planet行星 does right now.
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地球上其它任何物种都无法做到
00:35
And this is, of course课程,
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而且 当然
00:37
not the first time you've probably大概 recognized认可 this.
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这也许不是第一次你意识到这一点
00:39
Of course课程, in addition加成 to being存在 smart聪明, we're also an extremely非常 vain徒然 species种类.
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当然 除了聪明意外 我们也是十分自负的物种
00:42
So we like pointing指点 out the fact事实 that we're smart聪明.
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因此我们喜欢指出我们聪明的这个事实
00:45
You know, so I could turn to pretty漂亮 much any sage智者
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要知道,我可以列举出如莎士比亚或者史蒂芬·考伯特
00:47
from Shakespeare莎士比亚 to Stephen斯蒂芬 Colbert科尔伯特
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这样的先哲
00:49
to point out things like the fact事实 that
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来指出一个事实,那就是
00:51
we're noble高贵 in reason原因 and infinite无穷 in faculties各系
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我们理性高贵、能力无穷,
00:53
and just kind of awesome-er真棒-ER than anything else其他 on the planet行星
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而且当需要动脑筋的时候
00:55
when it comes to all things cerebral颅内.
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是地球上最棒的。
00:58
But of course课程, there's a second第二 observation意见 about the human人的 species种类
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但是,当然我更希望将注意力更多的放在
01:00
that I want to focus焦点 on a little bit more,
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人类的第二个现象上
01:02
and that's the fact事实 that
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而且事实上,
01:04
even though虽然 we're actually其实 really smart聪明, sometimes有时 uniquely独特地 smart聪明,
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虽然我们真的非常聪明,有时候独一无二的聪明,
01:07
we can also be incredibly令人难以置信, incredibly令人难以置信 dumb
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我们有时也在制定决策的时候,
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when it comes to some aspects方面 of our decision决定 making制造.
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变得难以置信的愚蠢。
01:13
Now I'm seeing眼看 lots of smirks假笑 out there.
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我看到在座的很多开始傻笑,
01:15
Don't worry担心, I'm not going to call anyone任何人 in particular特定 out
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不要担心,我不是来指出
01:17
on any aspects方面 of your own拥有 mistakes错误.
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你们中的任何一位犯的错误。
01:19
But of course课程, just in the last two years年份
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但是,当然仅仅在过去的两年里,
01:21
we see these unprecedented史无前例 examples例子 of human人的 ineptitude无能.
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我们见证了许多前所未有的,足以证明人类的无能的例子。
01:24
And we've我们已经 watched看着 as the tools工具 we uniquely独特地 make
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我们见到了我们使用特制的工具,
01:27
to pull the resources资源 out of our environment环境
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将资源从环境中发掘出来,
01:29
kind of just blow打击 up in our face面对.
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就像突然从我们的脸上爆发一样。
01:31
We've我们已经 watched看着 the financial金融 markets市场 that we uniquely独特地 create创建 --
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我们也看到我们特意创造的,
01:33
these markets市场 that were supposed应该 to be foolproof简单的 --
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本应该万无一失的金融市场,
01:36
we've我们已经 watched看着 them kind of collapse坍方 before our eyes眼睛.
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在我们眼皮子底下轰然坍塌。
01:38
But both of these two embarrassing尴尬 examples例子, I think,
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但是,我想这两个令人尴尬的例子
01:40
don't highlight突出 what I think is most embarrassing尴尬
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并不是人类所犯错误里
01:43
about the mistakes错误 that humans人类 make,
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最让人尴尬的。
01:45
which哪一个 is that we'd星期三 like to think that the mistakes错误 we make
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我们可能更倾向于认为这些错误
01:48
are really just the result结果 of a couple一对 bad apples苹果
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更像几个烂苹果,
01:50
or a couple一对 really sort分类 of FAIL失败 Blog-worthy博客值得 decisions决定.
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或者几个错误的值得在博客上宣扬的决定。
01:53
But it turns out, what social社会 scientists科学家们 are actually其实 learning学习
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但是事实上,社会科学家认为
01:56
is that most of us, when put in certain某些 contexts上下文,
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当在一定的环境中,我们中的大多数人
01:59
will actually其实 make very specific具体 mistakes错误.
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都会犯一些非常特定的错误。
02:02
The errors错误 we make are actually其实 predictable可预测.
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我们犯的这些错误实际上是可以预判的,
02:04
We make them again and again.
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我们总是在犯同样的错误。
02:06
And they're actually其实 immune免疫的 to lots of evidence证据.
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而且对很多证据视而不见。
02:08
When we get negative feedback反馈,
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当我们得到负面反馈的时候,
02:10
we still, the next下一个 time we're face面对 with a certain某些 context上下文,
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却总是在再次面对同样的情况时,
02:13
tend趋向 to make the same相同 errors错误.
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犯下同样的错误。
02:15
And so this has been a real真实 puzzle难题 to me
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所以我觉得困惑:
02:17
as a sort分类 of scholar学者 of human人的 nature性质.
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作为研究人类天性的学者,
02:19
What I'm most curious好奇 about is,
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我最好奇的是,
02:21
how is a species种类 that's as smart聪明 as we are
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我们作为一个如此聪明的种类,
02:24
capable of such这样 bad
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为何总是犯如此糟糕,
02:26
and such这样 consistent一贯 errors错误 all the time?
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如此类似的错误呢?
02:28
You know, we're the smartest最聪明的 thing out there, why can't we figure数字 this out?
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你们知道,我们是最聪明的,为什么对这个问题得不到答案?
02:31
In some sense, where do our mistakes错误 really come from?
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从某种意义上来说,我们的错误到底从何而来?
02:34
And having thought about this a little bit, I see a couple一对 different不同 possibilities可能性.
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考虑一阵子之后,我感觉有一些不同的可能性。
02:37
One possibility可能性 is, in some sense, it's not really our fault故障.
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第一种可能性就是在某种意义上,这的确不是我们的错。
02:40
Because we're a smart聪明 species种类,
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因为我们是聪明的物种,
02:42
we can actually其实 create创建 all kinds of environments环境
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我们事实上能创造出很多种
02:44
that are super, super complicated复杂,
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非常非常复杂的环境,
02:46
sometimes有时 too complicated复杂 for us to even actually其实 understand理解,
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复杂到有时候我们都不能理解,
02:49
even though虽然 we've我们已经 actually其实 created创建 them.
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虽然是我们创造出来的。
02:51
We create创建 financial金融 markets市场 that are super complex复杂.
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我们创造出了超级复杂的金融市场,
02:53
We create创建 mortgage抵押 terms条款 that we can't actually其实 deal合同 with.
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和自己都不能应付的房屋贷款条款,
02:56
And of course课程, if we are put in environments环境 where we can't deal合同 with it,
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而且当然,如果我们处于不能应付的环境中,
02:59
in some sense makes品牌 sense that we actually其实
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在某种意义上,
03:01
might威力 mess食堂 certain某些 things up.
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是我们自己把一些事情搞砸了。
03:03
If this was the case案件, we'd星期三 have a really easy简单 solution
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如果这样的话,我们可以很轻松的解决
03:05
to the problem问题 of human人的 error错误.
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这些人为错误的问题。
03:07
We'd星期三 actually其实 just say, okay, let's figure数字 out
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我们可以说,好吧,
03:09
the kinds of technologies技术 we can't deal合同 with,
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让我们挑出我们不能对付的技术,
03:11
the kinds of environments环境 that are bad --
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还有那些糟糕的环境,
03:13
get rid摆脱 of those, design设计 things better,
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抛弃它们,设计更好的东西,
03:15
and we should be the noble高贵 species种类
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而且我们需要成为我们期待的
03:17
that we expect期望 ourselves我们自己 to be.
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那种高尚的物种。
03:19
But there's another另一个 possibility可能性 that I find a little bit more worrying令人担忧,
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但是我更担心的是另外一个可能,
03:22
which哪一个 is, maybe it's not our environments环境 that are messed搞砸 up.
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那就是,也许不是糟糕的环境的问题,
03:25
Maybe it's actually其实 us that's designed设计 badly.
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也许问题出在没有设计好的我们自己身上。
03:28
This is a hint暗示 that I've gotten得到
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这是我从观察社会科学家对人类错误的理解
03:30
from watching观看 the ways方法 that social社会 scientists科学家们 have learned学到了 about human人的 errors错误.
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而得到的启发。
03:33
And what we see is that people tend趋向 to keep making制造 errors错误
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我觉察到人们会一次又一次地
03:36
exactly究竟 the same相同 way, over and over again.
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以同样的方式犯错误。
03:39
It feels感觉 like we might威力 almost几乎 just be built内置
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就好像是我们被造的时候,
03:41
to make errors错误 in certain某些 ways方法.
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就设计好了会以某种方式犯错误。
03:43
This is a possibility可能性 that I worry担心 a little bit more about,
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这就是我更担心的可能,
03:46
because, if it's us that's messed搞砸 up,
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因为如果我们自己的原因,
03:48
it's not actually其实 clear明确 how we go about dealing交易 with it.
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那就更不清楚应该怎么应对它了。
03:50
We might威力 just have to accept接受 the fact事实 that we're error错误 prone易于
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我们也许只能接受这个事实,那就是我们也会犯错误,
03:53
and try to design设计 things around it.
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在设计东西的过程中只能尽可能的避免这些错误。
03:55
So this is the question my students学生们 and I wanted to get at.
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所以这就是我和我的学生都很关心的问题,
03:58
How can we tell the difference区别 between之间 possibility可能性 one and possibility可能性 two?
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我们如何分辨这两种可能的不同呢?
04:01
What we need is a population人口
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我们需要一个聪明的,
04:03
that's basically基本上 smart聪明, can make lots of decisions决定,
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能做许多决定,
04:05
but doesn't have access访问 to any of the systems系统 we have,
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但是和我们的系统——也就是我们可能弄糟的任何东西
04:07
any of the things that might威力 mess食堂 us up --
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都互不相干,
04:09
no human人的 technology技术, human人的 culture文化,
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没有人类的技术,人类的文化,
04:11
maybe even not human人的 language语言.
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可能甚至没有人类的语言的群体。
04:13
And so this is why we turned转身 to these guys here.
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这就是为什么我们研究他们。
04:15
These are one of the guys I work with. This is a brown棕色 capuchin僧帽 monkey.
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这是我的工作对象之一。它是棕色卷尾猴。
04:18
These guys are New World世界 primates灵长类动物,
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它们属于新世界灵长科,
04:20
which哪一个 means手段 they broke打破 off from the human人的 branch
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也就是说它们在三千五百万年前
04:22
about 35 million百万 years年份 ago.
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已经与人类得分支脱离了。
04:24
This means手段 that your great, great, great great, great, great --
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这样的话,你的曾曾曾。。。祖母
04:26
with about five million百万 "greats巨星" in there --
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大概往上推1千万代,
04:28
grandmother祖母 was probably大概 the same相同 great, great, great, great
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可能和在这里的霍利
04:30
grandmother祖母 with five million百万 "greats巨星" in there
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往上推1千万代的曾曾曾。。。祖母
04:32
as Holly冬青 up here.
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是相同的。
04:34
You know, so you can take comfort安慰 in the fact事实 that this guy up here is a really really distant遥远,
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为此我们可以放心的说在这里的家伙和我们是真的真的很远的
04:37
but albeit尽管 evolutionary发展的, relative相对的.
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虽然有进化的远亲。
04:39
The good news新闻 about Holly冬青 though虽然 is that
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关于霍利的好消息是:
04:41
she doesn't actually其实 have the same相同 kinds of technologies技术 we do.
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她实际上没有我们一样的技术。
04:44
You know, she's a smart聪明, very cut creature生物, a primate灵长类动物 as well,
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你们知道,她是聪明的,很可爱的小动物,也属于灵长类,
04:47
but she lacks缺乏 all the stuff东东 we think might威力 be messing搞乱 us up.
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而且她没有那些我们自己都搞不懂的东西。
04:49
So she's the perfect完善 test测试 case案件.
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所以她应该是比较合适的实验对象。
04:51
What if we put Holly冬青 into the same相同 context上下文 as humans人类?
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如果我们把霍利放在跟人类同样的情境里呢?
04:54
Does she make the same相同 mistakes错误 as us?
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她会不会犯跟我们同样的错误?
04:56
Does she not learn学习 from them? And so on.
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她是不是不会从中吸取教训呢?等等。。。
04:58
And so this is the kind of thing we decided决定 to do.
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这些都是我们想探讨的问题。
05:00
My students学生们 and I got very excited兴奋 about this a few少数 years年份 ago.
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我和我的学生在好几年前就很期待这个实验。
05:02
We said, all right, let's, you know, throw so problems问题 at Holly冬青,
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我们说,让我们丢给霍利一些人类才有的问题,
05:04
see if she messes混乱 these things up.
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看看她有什么反应。
05:06
First problem问题 is just, well, where should we start开始?
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第一个问题就是,嗯,从哪儿开始呢?
05:09
Because, you know, it's great for us, but bad for humans人类.
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因为实验对我们来说很好,但对人类来说就很难了。
05:11
We make a lot of mistakes错误 in a lot of different不同 contexts上下文.
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我们在不同的领域会犯不同的错误。
05:13
You know, where are we actually其实 going to start开始 with this?
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所以,我们的实验到底要从哪儿开始呢?
05:15
And because we started开始 this work around the time of the financial金融 collapse坍方,
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正好实验开始的时候是在金融危机的时候,
05:18
around the time when foreclosures丧失抵押品赎回权 were hitting the news新闻,
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同时新闻也不停的报道抵押品回收的消息,
05:20
we said, hhmmHHMM, maybe we should
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我们想,也许
05:22
actually其实 start开始 in the financial金融 domain.
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就从金融领域开始好了。
05:24
Maybe we should look at monkey's猴子的 economic经济 decisions决定
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让我们来观察猴子在经济方面的决策,
05:27
and try to see if they do the same相同 kinds of dumb things that we do.
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看看他们是不是也犯跟我们一样的错误。
05:30
Of course课程, that's when we hit击中 a sort分类 second第二 problem问题 --
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当然,第二个问题也就随之而来,
05:32
a little bit more methodological方法论 --
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就是方法上的问题,
05:34
which哪一个 is that, maybe you guys don't know,
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各位可能不知道,
05:36
but monkeys猴子 don't actually其实 use money. I know, you haven't没有 met会见 them.
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猴子是不是用货币的。各位没跟猴子及出国。
05:39
But this is why, you know, they're not in the queue队列 behind背后 you
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这就是为什么当你在杂货店或者提款机前面的时候,
05:41
at the grocery杂货 store商店 or the ATM自动取款机 -- you know, they don't do this stuff东东.
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没看到猴子排在你后面——他们才不做这种事情。
05:44
So now we faced面对, you know, a little bit of a problem问题 here.
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所以我们在这儿碰到一点麻烦,
05:47
How are we actually其实 going to ask monkeys猴子 about money
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如果猴子不用钱,
05:49
if they don't actually其实 use it?
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那要怎么让猴子开始用钱呢?
05:51
So we said, well, maybe we should just, actually其实 just suck吮吸 it up
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我们就像,好吧,稍微忍耐一下,
05:53
and teach monkeys猴子 how to use money.
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先从教猴子用钱开始。
05:55
So that's just what we did.
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所以我们就照做了。
05:57
What you're looking at over here is actually其实 the first unit单元 that I know of
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各位看到我手上拿的这个小东西
06:00
of non-human非人类的 currency货币.
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就是我知道的第一个非人类社会的货币的基本单位。
06:02
We weren't very creative创作的 at the time we started开始 these studies学习,
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我们在开始这项研究的时候没多少创意,
06:04
so we just called it a token代币.
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所以暂时叫它代币。
06:06
But this is the unit单元 of currency货币 that we've我们已经 taught our monkeys猴子 at Yale耶鲁
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我们在耶鲁大学教猴子们使用这些货币
06:09
to actually其实 use with humans人类,
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和人类做交易,
06:11
to actually其实 buy购买 different不同 pieces of food餐饮.
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用来买不同的水果。
06:14
It doesn't look like much -- in fact事实, it isn't like much.
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它看起来不起眼,实际上也没什么价值。
06:16
Like most of our money, it's just a piece of metal金属.
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和我们的货币系统一样,它使用金属做的。
06:18
As those of you who've谁一直 taken采取 currencies货币 home from your trip know,
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就像各位旅行后带回家的各种外币一样,
06:21
once一旦 you get home, it's actually其实 pretty漂亮 useless无用.
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一旦你到家了,这钱也就没法用了。
06:23
It was useless无用 to the monkeys猴子 at first
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在猴子们了解能用这些代币做什么之前,
06:25
before they realized实现 what they could do with it.
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对它们来说这些东西也一点用都没有。
06:27
When we first gave it to them in their enclosures机箱,
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当我们第一次把这些代币放到猴笼里,
06:29
they actually其实 kind of picked采摘的 them up, looked看着 at them.
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它们捡了起来,看着这些代币。
06:31
They were these kind of weird奇怪的 things.
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对它们来说是很奇怪的事情。
06:33
But very quickly很快, the monkeys猴子 realized实现
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不过很快这些猴子就认识到,
06:35
that they could actually其实 hand these tokens令牌 over
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他们可以用这些代币
06:37
to different不同 humans人类 in the lab实验室 for some food餐饮.
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跟实验室里不同的人换食物。
06:40
And so you see one of our monkeys猴子, Mayday劳动节, up here doing this.
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可以看到其中一只猴子,五月天,就正在做这件事情。
06:42
This is A and B are kind of the points where she's sort分类 of a little bit
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A图到B图是她 正对这些代币感到一点好奇,
06:45
curious好奇 about these things -- doesn't know.
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因为她从来没见过这些东西。
06:47
There's this waiting等候 hand from a human人的 experimenter实验者,
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图C是实验人员正在伸出手等着,
06:49
and Mayday劳动节 quickly很快 figures人物 out, apparently显然地 the human人的 wants this.
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五月天很快就意识到,显然人类想要这个代币。
06:52
Hands it over, and then gets得到 some food餐饮.
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她交出代币,然后就拿到一些食物。
06:54
It turns out not just Mayday劳动节, all of our monkeys猴子 get good
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不只是五月天,
06:56
at trading贸易 tokens令牌 with human人的 salesman推销员.
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实验室里所有的猴子都懂。
06:58
So here's这里的 just a quick video视频 of what this looks容貌 like.
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这里有个小短片,我们大家来看看发生了什么。
07:00
Here's这里的 Mayday劳动节. She's going to be trading贸易 a token代币 for some food餐饮
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这是五月天。她要用代币换食物,
07:03
and waiting等候 happily高高兴兴 and getting得到 her food餐饮.
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她开心的等啊等,然后也顺利的拿到了食物。
07:06
Here's这里的 Felix费利克斯, I think. He's our alphaα male; he's a kind of big guy.
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这是Felix,猴子群的老大,是个大家伙。
07:08
But he too waits等待 patiently耐心地, gets得到 his food餐饮 and goes on.
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他也同样耐心的等到了食物的到来。
07:11
So the monkeys猴子 get really good at this.
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所以猴子们对交易这件事挺在行。
07:13
They're surprisingly出奇 good at this with very little training训练.
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只要很少一点训练他们就能表现得非常好。
07:16
We just allowed允许 them to pick this up on their own拥有.
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我们只是放手让他们自己做选择。
07:18
The question is: is this anything like human人的 money?
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问题是:这跟人类的货币有什么关系?
07:20
Is this a market市场 at all,
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市场运作就是这样而已?
07:22
or did we just do a weird奇怪的 psychologist's心理学家 trick
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或者我们只是用一些奇特的心理手段,
07:24
by getting得到 monkeys猴子 to do something,
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引诱猴子们去做一些事情,
07:26
looking smart聪明, but not really being存在 smart聪明.
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看似聪明实际上却并不聪明的事情。
07:28
And so we said, well, what would the monkeys猴子 spontaneously自发 do
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所以我们想,如果这真是它们的货币,也真是像我们用钱那样用它,
07:31
if this was really their currency货币, if they were really using运用 it like money?
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猴子们会做什么样的自然反应?
07:34
Well, you might威力 actually其实 imagine想像 them
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各位可以想象一下,
07:36
to do all the kinds of smart聪明 things
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当他们开始用货币彼此做交易的时候,
07:38
that humans人类 do when they start开始 exchanging交换 money with each other.
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就是他们开始做类似人类做的聪明事情了。
07:41
You might威力 have them start开始 paying付款 attention注意 to price价钱,
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他们会开始注意到价格,
07:44
paying付款 attention注意 to how much they buy购买 --
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注意到该用多少价格去买,
07:46
sort分类 of keeping保持 track跟踪 of their monkey token代币, as it were.
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而且记住这些猴子币的使用情况。
07:49
Do the monkeys猴子 do anything like this?
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看看猴子们是否做了这些事情呢?
07:51
And so our monkey marketplace市井 was born天生.
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于是我们的猴子市集诞生了。
07:54
The way this works作品 is that
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它是这样运作的:
07:56
our monkeys猴子 normally一般 live生活 in a kind of big zoo动物园 social社会 enclosure附件.
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我们让猴子生活在一种类似动物园的透明笼子里,
07:59
When they get a hankering渴望 for some treats对待,
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当它们表现出想要做交易的时候,
08:01
we actually其实 allowed允许 them a way out
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我们会让它们
08:03
into a little smaller enclosure附件 where they could enter输入 the market市场.
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转移到一个可以进入“市场”的透明笼子里。
08:05
Upon entering进入 the market市场 --
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一进入这个市场——
08:07
it was actually其实 a much more fun开玩笑 market市场 for the monkeys猴子 than most human人的 markets市场
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这个市场可比人类的市场有趣多了,
08:09
because, as the monkeys猴子 entered进入 the door of the market市场,
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因为,当猴子一进入这个市场,
08:12
a human人的 would give them a big wallet钱包 full充分 of tokens令牌
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人们会给他们一个装满代币的钱包,
08:14
so they could actually其实 trade贸易 the tokens令牌
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它们可以用代币
08:16
with one of these two guys here --
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和画面中的其中一个人做交易,
08:18
two different不同 possible可能 human人的 salesmen推销员
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2个不同的销售员,
08:20
that they could actually其实 buy购买 stuff东东 from.
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猴子们可以从他们那儿买到不同的东西。
08:22
The salesmen推销员 were students学生们 from my lab实验室.
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这两位是我实验室里的学生。
08:24
They dressed连衣裙的 differently不同; they were different不同 people.
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他们穿着不同的衣服。
08:26
And over time, they did basically基本上 the same相同 thing
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在一段时间内,销售员会一直做同样的事情,
08:29
so the monkeys猴子 could learn学习, you know,
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所以猴子们就能意识到
08:31
who sold出售 what at what price价钱 -- you know, who was reliable可靠, who wasn't, and so on.
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谁卖什么价格,谁比较可靠等等之类的事情。
08:34
And you can see that each of the experimenters实验者
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各位能看到这2位销售员
08:36
is actually其实 holding保持 up a little, yellow黄色 food餐饮 dish.
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都拿着一个小小的黄色食物盘,
08:39
and that's what the monkey can for a single token代币.
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猴子可以用一个代币买盘子里的东西。
08:41
So everything costs成本 one token代币,
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其实每样东西都值一个代币,
08:43
but as you can see, sometimes有时 tokens令牌 buy购买 more than others其他,
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但有时候一个代币可以买到比较多的东西,
08:45
sometimes有时 more grapes葡萄 than others其他.
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也就是买到比较多的葡萄。
08:47
So I'll show显示 you a quick video视频 of what this marketplace市井 actually其实 looks容貌 like.
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让我给大家演示一下这个猴子市集的运作情况。
08:50
Here's这里的 a monkey-eye-view猴眼图. Monkeys猴子 are shorter, so it's a little short.
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这是从猴子的视角拍的,所以比较低。
08:53
But here's这里的 Honey蜜糖.
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她是小可爱。
08:55
She's waiting等候 for the market市场 to open打开 a little impatiently不耐烦.
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她有点不耐烦的等着市场开张。
08:57
All of a sudden突然 the market市场 opens打开. Here's这里的 her choice选择: one grapes葡萄 or two grapes葡萄.
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然后市场开张了,她有2个选择:买1个葡萄或者2个葡萄。
09:00
You can see Honey蜜糖, very good market市场 economist经济学家,
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各位可以发现小可爱是个很棒的市场经济学家,
09:02
goes with the guy who gives more.
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她跟卖较多葡萄的人做交易了。
09:05
She could teach our financial金融 advisers顾问 a few少数 things or two.
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她可以给我们的财务学教授上课了。
09:07
So not just Honey蜜糖,
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不只是小可爱,
09:09
most of the monkeys猴子 went with guys who had more.
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大多数的猴子都会跟卖较多葡萄的人做交易。
09:12
Most of the monkeys猴子 went with guys who had better food餐饮.
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大多数的猴子都会跟有较好食物的人交易。
09:14
When we introduced介绍 sales销售, we saw the monkeys猴子 paid支付 attention注意 to that.
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开始与猴子做买卖猴,我们发现猴子会专注在这件事情上。
09:17
They really cared照顾 about their monkey token代币 dollar美元.
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他们会在意猴子币的真正价值。
09:20
The more surprising奇怪 thing was that when we collaborated合作 with economists经济学家
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最令人惊讶的是,当我们开始与经济学家合作,
09:23
to actually其实 look at the monkeys'猴子 data数据 using运用 economic经济 tools工具,
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使用经济工具分析猴子的数据的时候,
09:26
they basically基本上 matched匹配, not just qualitatively定性,
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不管是在定性研究上,
09:29
but quantitatively数量上 with what we saw
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还是在定量研究上,
09:31
humans人类 doing in a real真实 market市场.
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他们的使用方式与我们人类在市场上做的一样。
09:33
So much so that, if you saw the monkeys'猴子 numbers数字,
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以至于在定量研究中,
09:35
you couldn't不能 tell whether是否 they came来了 from a monkey or a human人的 in the same相同 market市场.
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你根本没法分辨这些数据结果是人类的还是猴子的。
09:38
And what we'd星期三 really thought we'd星期三 doneDONE
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我们已经成功做到
09:40
is like we'd星期三 actually其实 introduced介绍 something
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引介给猴子一些东西,
09:42
that, at least最小 for the monkeys猴子 and us,
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至少猴子与我们
09:44
works作品 like a real真实 financial金融 currency货币.
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将代币运作得跟金融货币差不多。
09:46
Question is: do the monkeys猴子 start开始 messing搞乱 up in the same相同 ways方法 we do?
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另一个问题是:猴子会不会跟我们一样把这个制度搞乱?
09:49
Well, we already已经 saw anecdotally据传 a couple一对 of signs迹象 that they might威力.
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其实我们也观察到一些现象。
09:52
One thing we never saw in the monkey marketplace市井
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第一,在猴子市场中我们没发现到
09:54
was any evidence证据 of saving保存 --
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任何储蓄的证据,
09:56
you know, just like our own拥有 species种类.
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没发现像我们人一样的储蓄行为。
09:58
The monkeys猴子 entered进入 the market市场, spent花费 their entire整个 budget预算
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猴子来到市场,会把所有钱花光,
10:00
and then went back to everyone大家 else其他.
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然后再跳回猴群里。
10:02
The other thing we also spontaneously自发 saw,
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我们同时也发现另一件事,
10:04
embarrassingly尴尬 enough足够,
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非常尴尬,
10:06
is spontaneous自发 evidence证据 of larceny盗窃罪.
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就是自发性的盗窃行为。
10:08
The monkeys猴子 would rip-off撕掉 the tokens令牌 at every一切 available可得到 opportunity机会 --
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猴子不放过任何机会来偷代币,
10:11
from each other, often经常 from us --
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偷同伴的、偷我们的。
10:13
you know, things we didn't necessarily一定 think we were introducing引入,
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这些都是我们不认为介绍给了猴子们的行为,
10:15
but things we spontaneously自发 saw.
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但是我们还是同时看到了这种行为。
10:17
So we said, this looks容貌 bad.
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这看起来很糟糕。
10:19
Can we actually其实 see if the monkeys猴子
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我们是否能够看到
10:21
are doing exactly究竟 the same相同 dumb things as humans人类 do?
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猴子们做出跟人类一样愚蠢的事情?
10:24
One possibility可能性 is just kind of let
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有个方法是先创立猴子金融市场,
10:26
the monkey financial金融 system系统 play out,
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然后再让这个市场停摆,
10:28
you know, see if they start开始 calling调用 us for bailouts救助 in a few少数 years年份.
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不过,这样做实验可能得等上好几年。
10:30
We were a little impatient不耐烦 so we wanted
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我们有点等不及,
10:32
to sort分类 of speed速度 things up a bit.
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所以让实验进行得快一点。
10:34
So we said, let's actually其实 give the monkeys猴子
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我们就像,那就让这些小猴子们
10:36
the same相同 kinds of problems问题
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面对一些问题,
10:38
that humans人类 tend趋向 to get wrong错误
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这些问题是人类经常会犯错的
10:40
in certain某些 kinds of economic经济 challenges挑战,
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一些经济议题,或者
10:42
or certain某些 kinds of economic经济 experiments实验.
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一些经济方面的实验。
10:44
And so, since以来 the best最好 way to see how people go wrong错误
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想要了解人类是怎么犯错的,
10:47
is to actually其实 do it yourself你自己,
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最直接的方式就是自己做一次。
10:49
I'm going to give you guys a quick experiment实验
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所以我给大家一个小实验,
10:51
to sort分类 of watch your own拥有 financial金融 intuitions直觉 in action行动.
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请各位用你的财务直觉来回答。
10:53
So imagine想像 that right now
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请各位现在想象一下,
10:55
I handed each and every一切 one of you
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我给现场每个人各1千美金,
10:57
a thousand U.S. dollars美元 -- so 10 crisp hundred dollar美元 bills票据.
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10张百元钞票成一捆的1千美金。
11:00
Take these, put it in your wallet钱包
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把它放进你的皮夹里,
11:02
and spend a second第二 thinking思维 about what you're going to do with it.
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花点时间想想你要拿这笔钱做什么。
11:04
Because it's yours你的 now; you can buy购买 whatever随你 you want.
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这是你的钱,你可以用它买任何想要的东西。
11:06
Donate it, take it, and so on.
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捐出去,花掉,怎么都行。
11:08
Sounds声音 great, but you get one more choice选择 to earn a little bit more money.
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听起来不错吧?不过再给你另一个机会,让你能拿1千美金以上的钱。
11:11
And here's这里的 your choice选择: you can either be risky有风险,
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第一种选择:冒险拿多一些,
11:14
in which哪一个 case案件 I'm going to flip翻动 one of these monkey tokens令牌.
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我用丢猴子代币来决定这个选择的结果。
11:16
If it comes up heads, you're going to get a thousand dollars美元 more.
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如果代币是正面,你可以多得1千美金。
11:18
If it comes up tails尾巴, you get nothing.
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如果是背面,那你一分钱都不能多得。
11:20
So it's a chance机会 to get more, but it's pretty漂亮 risky有风险.
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有机会拿到比较多,但是要冒点风险。
11:23
Your other option选项 is a bit safe安全. Your just going to get some money for sure.
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而另一个比较安全的选择:让你再拿一笔确切的金额。
11:26
I'm just going to give you 500 bucks雄鹿.
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不过只能拿500美金。
11:28
You can stick it in your wallet钱包 and use it immediately立即.
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你可以把这笔钱放进皮夹或者马上花掉。
11:31
So see what your intuition直觉 is here.
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你的直觉决定好了吗?
11:33
Most people actually其实 go with the play-it-safe播放它安全 option选项.
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大部分的人会选择不冒险的选项。
11:36
Most people say, why should I be risky有风险 when I can get 1,500 dollars美元 for sure?
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这些人想说,我确定能拿1500美金,干嘛还要去冒险?
11:39
This seems似乎 like a good bet赌注. I'm going to go with that.
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这似乎是一个不错的选择,我选这个。
11:41
You might威力 say, eh, that's not really irrational不合理的.
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各位也许觉得这样选没错啊,
11:43
People are a little risk-averse规避风险. So what?
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人是风险趋避者,有问题吗?
11:45
Well, the "so what?" comes when start开始 thinking思维
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人是不是风险趋避者的问题,
11:47
about the same相同 problem问题
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请思考过另一个类似问题后,
11:49
set up just a little bit differently不同.
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再作判断。
11:51
So now imagine想像 that I give each and every一切 one of you
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现在再想象一下,我现在给各位2千美金,
11:53
2,000 dollars美元 -- 20 crisp hundred dollar美元 bills票据.
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20张百元钞票成一捆。
11:56
Now you can buy购买 double to stuff东东 you were going to get before.
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你刚刚想买的物品可以多买一倍。
11:58
Think about how you'd feel sticking症结 it in your wallet钱包.
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想想这笔钱在皮夹里的感觉。
12:00
And now imagine想像 that I have you make another另一个 choice选择
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现在,选择的一刻又来了,
12:02
But this time, it's a little bit worse更差.
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但这次,条件比较糟糕。
12:04
Now, you're going to be deciding决定 how you're going to lose失去 money,
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因为你将决定“失去金钱”的方式,
12:07
but you're going to get the same相同 choice选择.
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一样要从中做个选择。
12:09
You can either take a risky有风险 loss失利 --
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第一个选择是有风险的损失——
12:11
so I'll flip翻动 a coin硬币. If it comes up heads, you're going to actually其实 lose失去 a lot.
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一样用丢硬币,如果是正面,你会损失1千美金。
12:14
If it comes up tails尾巴, you lose失去 nothing, you're fine, get to keep the whole整个 thing --
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如果是反面,你1毛都不用丢,2千美金好好放着。
12:17
or you could play it safe安全, which哪一个 means手段 you have to reach达到 back into your wallet钱包
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或者可以不冒险,也就是说你乖乖把皮夹拿出来,
12:20
and give me five of those $100 bills票据, for certain某些.
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然后给我5张100元钞票。
12:23
And I'm seeing眼看 a lot of furrowed紧锁 brows眉毛 out there.
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我看到很多人眉头紧缩哦。
12:26
So maybe you're having the same相同 intuitions直觉
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测试各位的这个问题,
12:28
as the subjects主题 that were actually其实 tested测试 in this,
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也许各位有着同样直觉的答案,
12:30
which哪一个 is when presented呈现 with these options选项,
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当这些选项摊开给大家选择时,
12:32
people don't choose选择 to play it safe安全.
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人们不会选安全的方案,
12:34
They actually其实 tend趋向 to go a little risky有风险.
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而会选择冒险。
12:36
The reason原因 this is irrational不合理的 is that we've我们已经 given特定 people in both situations情况
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明明是有着同样选择的2种情境下,
12:39
the same相同 choice选择.
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后者竟然变得不太理智。
12:41
It's a 50/50 shot射击 of a thousand or 2,000,
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拿到1000或2000元的机会各50%,
12:44
or just 1,500 dollars美元 with certainty肯定.
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或者100%拿到1500元。
12:46
But people's人们 intuitions直觉 about how much risk风险 to take
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而人们对于风险多寡的直觉,
12:49
varies变化 depending根据 on where they started开始 with.
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居然是来自一开始手上有多少筹码来决定。
12:51
So what's going on?
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这是怎么回事?
12:53
Well, it turns out that this seems似乎 to be the result结果
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嗯,这答案来自
12:55
of at least最小 two biases偏见 that we have at the psychological心理 level水平.
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我们心理层面上的2项偏误。
12:58
One is that we have a really hard time thinking思维 in absolute绝对 terms条款.
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一个是我们没有足够的时间去计算绝对价值。
13:01
You really have to do work to figure数字 out,
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你应该要找时间好好考虑清楚,
13:03
well, one option's期权 a thousand, 2,000;
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一个选择是拿1000或2000,
13:05
one is 1,500.
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一个是拿1500.
13:07
Instead代替, we find it very easy简单 to think in very relative相对的 terms条款
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相反的,如果选项改成相对价值的话,
13:10
as options选项 change更改 from one time to another另一个.
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就比较容易理清了。
13:13
So we think of things as, "Oh, I'm going to get more," or "Oh, I'm going to get less."
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选项改成:“拿到更多”或“拿比较少”。
13:16
This is all well and good, except that
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这样的话很好,只不过
13:18
changes变化 in different不同 directions方向
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稍微改变一下手法,
13:20
actually其实 effect影响 whether是否 or not we think
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就会影响我们对于
13:22
options选项 are good or not.
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选项是好是坏的观感。
13:24
And this leads引线 to the second第二 bias偏压,
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这会引出第二项偏误,
13:26
which哪一个 economists经济学家 have called loss失利 aversion厌恶.
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经济学家称此为“损失规避”。
13:28
The idea理念 is that we really hate讨厌 it when things go into the red.
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也就是说,我们会非常讨厌任何损失。
13:31
We really hate讨厌 it when we have to lose失去 out on some money.
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我们会极度不愿意失去任何金钱。
13:33
And this means手段 that sometimes有时 we'll actually其实
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这就意味着我们会转移我们的偏好
13:35
switch开关 our preferences优先 to avoid避免 this.
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来避免任何损失。
13:37
What you saw in that last scenario脚本 is that
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刚刚在第二个情境里面,
13:39
subjects主题 get risky有风险
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人们会选择冒险,
13:41
because they want the small shot射击 that there won't惯于 be any loss失利.
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因为不想放过任何“零损失”的机会。
13:44
That means手段 when we're in a risk风险 mindset心态 --
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这也点出了我们对于风险的心态——
13:46
excuse借口 me, when we're in a loss失利 mindset心态,
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当我们进入“损失规避”模式时,
13:48
we actually其实 become成为 more risky有风险,
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我们会变得更喜欢风险,
13:50
which哪一个 can actually其实 be really worrying令人担忧.
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这就是最令人担心的部分。
13:52
These kinds of things play out in lots of bad ways方法 in humans人类.
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人类的负面行为也因此而暴露出来。
13:55
They're why stock股票 investors投资者 hold保持 onto losing失去 stocks个股 longer --
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也是为什么股票投资者会死抱着不断下跌的股票,
13:58
because they're evaluating评估 them in relative相对的 terms条款.
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因为他们用相对价值来计算后得到的结论。
14:00
They're why people in the housing住房 market市场 refused拒绝 to sell their house --
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这也是为什么房市里的投资客不愿意卖掉房子,
14:02
because they don't want to sell at a loss失利.
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因为他们不想要房子贬值的时候卖掉。
14:04
The question we were interested有兴趣 in
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我们感兴趣的是
14:06
is whether是否 the monkeys猴子 show显示 the same相同 biases偏见.
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猴子们是否也有同样的偏误。
14:08
If we set up those same相同 scenarios场景 in our little monkey market市场,
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若我们在猴子市场里设计同样的问题,
14:11
would they do the same相同 thing as people?
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他们是否会表现出跟人一样的行为?
14:13
And so this is what we did, we gave the monkeys猴子 choices选择
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所以我们让猴子在两个销售员间做选择,
14:15
between之间 guys who were safe安全 -- they did the same相同 thing every一切 time --
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一个是安全的交易者,他会一直拿出同样的商品量;
14:18
or guys who were risky有风险 --
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另一位是有风险的交易者,
14:20
they did things differently不同 half the time.
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他有一半的时间会拿出不同商品。
14:22
And then we gave them options选项 that were bonuses奖金 --
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我们提供有红利的选项——
14:24
like you guys did in the first scenario脚本 --
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就像刚才的第一情境——
14:26
so they actually其实 have a chance机会 more,
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因此猴子们同样也有机会拿到更多,
14:28
or pieces where they were experiencing经历 losses损失 --
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或者碰到一些损失,
14:31
they actually其实 thought they were going to get more than they really got.
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实际上他们会觉得自己会拿到比较多的葡萄。
14:33
And so this is what this looks容貌 like.
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这是实验的情景。
14:35
We introduced介绍 the monkeys猴子 to two new monkey salesmen推销员.
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我们将2为新的销售员介绍给猴子们。
14:37
The guy on the left and right both start开始 with one piece of grape葡萄,
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左边和右边一开始都是拿出1粒葡萄,
14:39
so it looks容貌 pretty漂亮 good.
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看起来很公平。
14:41
But they're going to give the monkeys猴子 bonuses奖金.
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但是这2位会给猴子们一些红利。
14:43
The guy on the left is a safe安全 bonus奖金.
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左边提供的是安全红利。
14:45
All the time, he adds增加 one, to give the monkeys猴子 two.
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从头到尾,他会多给猴子1粒葡萄。
14:48
The guy on the right is actually其实 a risky有风险 bonus奖金.
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右边的是提供风险红利。
14:50
Sometimes有时 the monkeys猴子 get no bonus奖金 -- so this is a bonus奖金 of zero.
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有时候猴子拿不到任何红利,所以他不会多拿任何葡萄。
14:53
Sometimes有时 the monkeys猴子 get two extra额外.
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但有时候猴子能多拿2粒葡萄。
14:56
For a big bonus奖金, now they get three.
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很棒的红利,所以猴子能一次拿3粒葡萄。
14:58
But this is the same相同 choice选择 you guys just faced面对.
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这跟刚刚给各位的实验内容是一样的。
15:00
Do the monkeys猴子 actually其实 want to play it safe安全
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那么,猴子是会去选择有安全红利的交易,
15:03
and then go with the guy who's谁是 going to do the same相同 thing on every一切 trial审讯,
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就是那位每次交易都会提供同样东西的人;
15:05
or do they want to be risky有风险
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或者,他们会去选有风险的红利。
15:07
and try to get a risky有风险, but big, bonus奖金,
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虽然要冒点险,有可能拿不到任何红利,
15:09
but risk风险 the possibility可能性 of getting得到 no bonus奖金.
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但是如果能拿到就赚翻了。
15:11
People here played发挥 it safe安全.
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人类倾向选择安全的做法。
15:13
Turns out, the monkeys猴子 play it safe安全 too.
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结果,没想到猴子也会选择安全的一方。
15:15
Qualitatively定性 and quantitatively数量上,
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在定性和定量研究里,
15:17
they choose选择 exactly究竟 the same相同 way as people,
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在同样的测试内容中,
15:19
when tested测试 in the same相同 thing.
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猴子与人类有一致的行为反应。
15:21
You might威力 say, well, maybe the monkeys猴子 just don't like risk风险.
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各位也许会觉得,可能是因为猴子不喜欢冒险。
15:23
Maybe we should see how they do with losses损失.
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那么让我们来看看猴子面对损失时的行为。
15:25
And so we ran a second第二 version of this.
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于是我们就做了第二个版本的实验。
15:27
Now, the monkeys猴子 meet遇到 two guys
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现在,猴子们会面对这两个销售员,
15:29
who aren't giving them bonuses奖金;
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他们不会再给猴子红利了;
15:31
they're actually其实 giving them less than they expect期望.
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他们会拿走猴子们预期的葡萄数。
15:33
So they look like they're starting开始 out with a big amount.
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所以他们一开始就拿出较多的葡萄。
15:35
These are three grapes葡萄; the monkey's猴子的 really psyched激动 for this.
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一开始就拿出3粒葡萄:这是猴子最想看到的情形。
15:37
But now they learn学习 these guys are going to give them less than they expect期望.
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不过他们发现,这两个家伙会给比预期少的数量。
15:40
They guy on the left is a safe安全 loss失利.
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左边这位,他提供固定的损失量。
15:42
Every一切 single time, he's going to take one of these away
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每次他都会固定少给猴子一粒葡萄,
15:45
and give the monkeys猴子 just two.
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也就是只给他们2粒。
15:47
the guy on the right is the risky有风险 loss失利.
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右边这位提供有风险的损失量。
15:49
Sometimes有时 he gives no loss失利, so the monkeys猴子 are really psyched激动,
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有时候一个都不会少,完全符合猴子预期,
15:52
but sometimes有时 he actually其实 gives a big loss失利,
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但有时候他会拿走更多,
15:54
taking服用 away two to give the monkeys猴子 only one.
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也就是只给猴子一粒葡萄。
15:56
And so what do the monkeys猴子 do?
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猴子们会怎么决定?
15:58
Again, same相同 choice选择; they can play it safe安全
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和刚才一样,他们可以做保险的交易,
16:00
for always getting得到 two grapes葡萄 every一切 single time,
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每次交易都拿固定的2粒葡萄,
16:03
or they can take a risky有风险 bet赌注 and choose选择 between之间 one and three.
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或者做有风险的交易,拿1粒或者3粒。
16:06
The remarkable卓越 thing to us is that, when you give monkeys猴子 this choice选择,
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最让我们关注的是,当猴子们面对这个选择时,
16:09
they do the same相同 irrational不合理的 thing that people do.
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他们表现出跟人类一样的非理性行为。
16:11
They actually其实 become成为 more risky有风险
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根据实验的起始条件,
16:13
depending根据 on how the experimenters实验者 started开始.
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猴子们变得倾向冒险。
16:16
This is crazy because it suggests提示 that the monkeys猴子 too
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这真是太不可思议了,
16:18
are evaluating评估 things in relative相对的 terms条款
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因为猴子居然也用相对价值来评估,
16:20
and actually其实 treating治疗 losses损失 differently不同 than they treat对待 gains收益.
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而且在面对损失和面对收获时有着非常不同的行为。
16:23
So what does all of this mean?
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这给我们什么启示?
16:25
Well, what we've我们已经 shown显示 is that, first of all,
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我们先做归纳。首先,
16:27
we can actually其实 give the monkeys猴子 a financial金融 currency货币,
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我们给猴子一种财务货币,
16:29
and they do very similar类似 things with it.
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然后教它们一些简单的交易行为,
16:31
They do some of the smart聪明 things we do,
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它们会做出跟人类一样聪明的事情,
16:33
some of the kind of not so nice不错 things we do,
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也会做跟人类一样不太好的事情,
16:35
like steal it and so on.
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比如偷钱之类的。
16:37
But they also do some of the irrational不合理的 things we do.
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同事它们也会做出跟人类一样非理性的行为。
16:39
They systematically系统 get things wrong错误
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它们有条理地做出错误行为,
16:41
and in the same相同 ways方法 that we do.
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跟我们如出一辙。
16:43
This is the first take-home带回家 message信息 of the Talk,
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今天我想给各位的第一个结论,
16:45
which哪一个 is that if you saw the beginning开始 of this and you thought,
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如果你只听到开头的部分,你可能会想——
16:47
oh, I'm totally完全 going to go home and hire聘请 a capuchin僧帽 monkey financial金融 adviser顾问.
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我回家后真该雇佣一只卷尾猴当我的财务大臣。
16:49
They're way cuter可爱 than the one at ... you know --
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这家伙的可爱程度超过家里的那位。。。
16:51
Don't do that; they're probably大概 going to be just as dumb
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但你可千万别这么做,因为这些猴子的糊涂程度
16:53
as the human人的 one you already已经 have.
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跟你家里的那位差不多。
16:56
So, you know, a little bad -- Sorry, sorry, sorry.
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这有点遗憾。各位听我说,
16:58
A little bad for monkey investors投资者.
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请猴子来当投资客不太好。
17:00
But of course课程, you know, the reason原因 you're laughing is bad for humans人类 too.
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当然,偷笑的各位也觉得人一样不善于当投资客。
17:03
Because we've我们已经 answered回答 the question we started开始 out with.
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这问题的答案在刚才就已经证明给大家看了。
17:06
We wanted to know where these kinds of errors错误 came来了 from.
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而我们为了想了解这些错误从何而来,
17:08
And we started开始 with the hope希望 that maybe we can
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就抱着某些希望,像是
17:10
sort分类 of tweak our financial金融 institutions机构,
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在某种程度上调整我们的金融机构,
17:12
tweak our technologies技术 to make ourselves我们自己 better.
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或调整我们的财务方法让自己过得更好。
17:15
But what we've我们已经 learn学习 is that these biases偏见 might威力 be a deeper更深 part部分 of us than that.
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但我们已经了解到其实这两种偏误已经深深地影响了我们。
17:18
In fact事实, they might威力 be due应有 to the very nature性质
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事实上,这些偏误之所以会影响我们这么深,
17:20
of our evolutionary发展的 history历史.
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是因为它们老早就深植在我们的进化过程中。
17:22
You know, maybe it's not just humans人类
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各位,也许笨蛋不只是
17:24
at the right side of this chain that's dunceyduncey.
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图中这进化链中最右边的人类,
17:26
Maybe it's sort分类 of dunceyduncey all the way back.
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也许变笨蛋的来源是从古早就有了。
17:28
And this, if we believe the capuchin僧帽 monkey results结果,
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如果我们相信这些针对猴子的实验结果,
17:31
means手段 that these dunceyduncey strategies策略
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也就表示我们承认这种愚蠢对策,
17:33
might威力 be 35 million百万 years年份 old.
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早在3500万年前就出现了。
17:35
That's a long time for a strategy战略
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这存在已久的对策
17:37
to potentially可能 get changed around -- really, really old.
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已经默默地影响我们很久。
17:40
What do we know about other old strategies策略 like this?
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我们对这类的对策了解多少?
17:42
Well, one thing we know is that they tend趋向 to be really hard to overcome克服.
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我们了解的其中一个事实就是,我们很难去改变它。
17:45
You know, think of our evolutionary发展的 predilection好发
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想一想我们最先进化的部分
17:47
for eating sweet things, fatty脂肪 things like cheesecake乳酪蛋糕.
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就是懂得吃甜食、高脂肪的食物,如芝士蛋糕。
17:50
You can't just shut关闭 that off.
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你没办法闭嘴不吃。
17:52
You can't just look at the dessert甜点 cart大车 as say, "No, no, no. That looks容貌 disgusting讨厌 to me."
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你没办法对着装满推车的点心说:“我才不吃,这些令我作呕。”
17:55
We're just built内置 differently不同.
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但人与人之间存在着差异性。
17:57
We're going to perceive感知 it as a good thing to go after.
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我们会追求自己认为好的事物。
17:59
My guess猜测 is that the same相同 thing is going to be true真正
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所以我推测
18:01
when humans人类 are perceiving感知
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人们对于财务上的决策
18:03
different不同 financial金融 decisions决定.
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也会有不同的认知见解。
18:05
When you're watching观看 your stocks个股 plummet铅坠 into the red,
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你会傻愣愣地看持有的股票价格直线下降,
18:07
when you're watching观看 your house price价钱 go down,
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或者看着自己持有的不动产贬值,
18:09
you're not going to be able能够 to see that
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而你不会去注意到事情的真相,
18:11
in anything but old evolutionary发展的 terms条款.
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因为我们与生俱来就是有这样的行为。
18:13
This means手段 that the biases偏见
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这种心理上的偏差
18:15
that lead investors投资者 to do badly,
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会让投资者做出糟糕的决定,
18:17
that lead to the foreclosure丧失抵押品赎回权 crisis危机
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所以像这次的次贷危机
18:19
are going to be really hard to overcome克服.
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就变得很难去避免。
18:21
So that's the bad news新闻. The question is: is there any good news新闻?
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听起来都是坏消息,哪有没有好消息呢?
18:23
I'm supposed应该 to be up here telling告诉 you the good news新闻.
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我这里是有一些好消息告诉各位。
18:25
Well, the good news新闻, I think,
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我想这个好消息就是,
18:27
is what I started开始 with at the beginning开始 of the Talk,
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就如同我在今天开头时所说,
18:29
which哪一个 is that humans人类 are not only smart聪明;
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人类不只是聪明而已;
18:31
we're really inspirationallyinspirationally smart聪明
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我们比起生物界里的其它动物,
18:33
to the rest休息 of the animals动物 in the biological生物 kingdom王国.
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都要聪明许多。
18:36
We're so good at overcoming克服 our biological生物 limitations限制 --
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我们非常擅长克服我们先天上的不足——
18:39
you know, I flew over here in an airplane飞机.
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就像我是搭飞机来这里,
18:41
I didn't have to try to flap拍打 my wings翅膀.
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我不需要把手当翅膀拍动来飞。
18:43
I'm wearing穿着 contact联系 lenses镜头 now so that I can see all of you.
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我带着隐形眼镜就能看清楚各位,
18:46
I don't have to rely依靠 on my own拥有 near-sightedness近视.
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不需要依赖我这双大近视的眼睛。
18:49
We actually其实 have all of these cases
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我们有这么多例子
18:51
where we overcome克服 our biological生物 limitations限制
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都是用科技或其它方式来突破我们生物限制的事实,
18:54
through通过 technology技术 and other means手段, seemingly似乎 pretty漂亮 easily容易.
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让一切看起来是这么简单。
18:57
But we have to recognize认识 that we have those limitations限制.
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但我们也必须了解自己的极限在哪里,
19:00
And here's这里的 the rub.
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而这是最难的地方。
19:02
It was Camus加缪 who once一旦 said that, "Man is the only species种类
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就像卡谬曾说,
19:04
who refuses拒绝 to be what he really is."
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“人是唯一搞不清楚自己是什么的物种。”
19:07
But the irony讽刺 is that
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讽刺的是
19:09
it might威力 only be in recognizing认识 our limitations限制
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我们得知道人类的极限在哪儿,
19:11
that we can really actually其实 overcome克服 them.
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才能克服它们。
19:13
The hope希望 is that you all will think about your limitations限制,
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希望各位都能意识到自己的极限在哪儿,
19:16
not necessarily一定 as unovercomableunovercomable,
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它并不是不可逾越的,
19:19
but to recognize认识 them, accept接受 them
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了解它,接受它,
19:21
and then use the world世界 of design设计 to actually其实 figure数字 them out.
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然后发展出让世人更了解人类极限的工具。
19:24
That might威力 be the only way that we will really be able能够
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想要能激发出人类潜力,
19:27
to achieve实现 our own拥有 human人的 potential潜在
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同时成为那种我们心里想成为的高贵物种,
19:29
and really be the noble高贵 species种类 we hope希望 to all be.
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这也许是唯一的办法。
19:32
Thank you.
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谢谢各位。
19:34
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Wenjia Tang
Reviewed by Tracie Chen

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Laurie Santos - Cognitive psychologist
Laurie Santos studies primate psychology and monkeynomics -- testing problems in human psychology on primates, who (not so surprisingly) have many of the same predictable irrationalities we do.

Why you should listen

Laurie Santos runs the Comparative Cognition Laboratory (CapLab) at Yale, where she and collaborators across departments (from psychology to primatology to neurobiology) explore the evolutionary origins of the human mind by studying lemurs, capuchin monkeys and other primates. The twist: Santos looks not only for positive humanlike traits, like tool-using and altruism, but irrational ones, like biased decisionmaking.

In elegant, carefully constructed experiments, Santos and CapLab have studied how primates understand and categorize objects in the physical world -- for instance, that monkeys understand an object is still whole even when part of it is obscured. Going deeper, their experiments also search for clues that primates possess a theory of mind -- an ability to think about what other people think.

Most recently, the lab has been looking at behaviors that were once the province mainly of novelists: jealousy, frustration, judgment of others' intentions, poor economic choices. In one experiment, Santos and her team taught monkeys to use a form of money, tradeable for food. When certain foods became cheaper, monkeys would, like humans, overbuy. As we humans search for clues to our own irrational behaviors, Santos' research suggests that the source of our genius for bad decisions might be our monkey brains.

More profile about the speaker
Laurie Santos | Speaker | TED.com