TED@IBM
Grady Booch: Don't fear superintelligent AI
格雷迪·布啟: 不要害怕超級人工智能
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科學家和哲學家格雷迪·布啟（Grady Booch）說，新科技帶來新的焦慮，但我們不需要害怕功能強大，沒有情感的人工智能電腦。布啟解釋我們將教它們，與它們分享我們的價值觀，來消弭我們對超級智能電腦的恐懼。與其擔心不可能存在的威脅，他敦促我們考慮人工智能如何改善人類生活。
Grady Booch - Scientist, philosopher
IBM's Grady Booch is shaping the future of cognitive computing by building intelligent systems that can reason and learn. Full bio
IBM's Grady Booch is shaping the future of cognitive computing by building intelligent systems that can reason and learn. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
When I was a kid,
I was the quintessential nerd.
I was the quintessential nerd.
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我小時候是個典型的書呆子。
00:17
I think some of you were, too.
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你們有些人也曾經是書呆子。
00:19
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:20
And you, sir, who laughed the loudest,
you probably still are.
you probably still are.
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那位笑最大聲的也許現在還是書呆子。
00:24
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:26
I grew up in a small town
in the dusty plains of north Texas,
in the dusty plains of north Texas,
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我在北德州一座塵土飛揚的
平原小鎮長大，
平原小鎮長大，
00:29
the son of a sheriff
who was the son of a pastor.
who was the son of a pastor.
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父親是警長，祖父是牧師。
00:33
Getting into trouble was not an option.
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所以我「惹上麻煩」是不可能的事。
00:36
And so I started reading
calculus books for fun.
calculus books for fun.
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因此我開始讀微積分的書當消遣。
00:39
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:40
You did, too.
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你也讀過。
00:42
That led me to building a laser
and a computer and model rockets,
and a computer and model rockets,
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這引導我去製作雷射、
電腦和火箭模型，
電腦和火箭模型，
00:46
and that led me to making
rocket fuel in my bedroom.
rocket fuel in my bedroom.
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然後我在臥室裡製造火箭推進燃料。
00:49
Now, in scientific terms,
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如果用科學上的說法來形容，
00:53
we call this a very bad idea.
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我們把這叫做「糟糕透頂的主意」。
00:56
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:58
Around that same time,
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大概在那段時期，
01:00
Stanley Kubrick's "2001: A Space Odyssey"
came to the theaters,
came to the theaters,
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史丹利·庫柏力克執導的
《2001 太空漫遊》上映了，
《2001 太空漫遊》上映了，
01:03
and my life was forever changed.
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我的人生也永遠地改變了。
01:06
I loved everything about that movie,
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我愛上了這部電影裡的一切，
01:08
especially the HAL 9000.
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尤其是「豪爾－9000」。
01:10
Now, HAL was a sentient computer
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豪爾是一台知覺電腦，
01:13
designed to guide the Discovery spacecraft
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設計來引導「發現號」太空船，
01:15
from the Earth to Jupiter.
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從地球前往木星。
01:18
HAL was also a flawed character,
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豪爾也是個有缺陷的角色，
01:20
for in the end he chose
to value the mission over human life.
to value the mission over human life.
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因為它最終選擇
任務優先、人命其次。
任務優先、人命其次。
01:24
Now, HAL was a fictional character,
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儘管豪爾只是個虛構的角色，
01:26
but nonetheless he speaks to our fears,
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卻直指我們內心的恐懼，
01:29
our fears of being subjugated
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我們害怕被征服的恐懼，
01:31
by some unfeeling, artificial intelligence
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臣服於某個沒有情感，
對於人類漠不關心的人工智能電腦。
01:34
who is indifferent to our humanity.
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01:37
I believe that such fears are unfounded.
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我認為這種恐懼只是杞人憂天。
01:40
Indeed, we stand at a remarkable time
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沒錯，我們現在處於
人類史上一個偉大的時代。
01:43
in human history,
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01:44
where, driven by refusal to accept
the limits of our bodies and our minds,
the limits of our bodies and our minds,
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我們拒絕接受肉體和心靈上的限制，
01:49
we are building machines
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我們製造細緻、精美，複雜
01:51
of exquisite, beautiful
complexity and grace
complexity and grace
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又優雅的機器。
01:55
that will extend the human experience
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這些機器將透過各種超乎想像的方式，
01:57
in ways beyond our imagining.
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拓展人類的經驗範圍。
01:59
After a career that led me
from the Air Force Academy
from the Air Force Academy
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我曾任職於美國空軍學院，
02:02
to Space Command to now,
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現在服務於美國空軍太空司令部。
02:04
I became a systems engineer,
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我成了系統工程師，
最近我被派去解決一個
02:06
and recently I was drawn
into an engineering problem
into an engineering problem
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與美國太空總署的
火星任務有關的工程問題。
火星任務有關的工程問題。
02:08
associated with NASA's mission to Mars.
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02:11
Now, in space flights to the Moon,
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目前，前往月球的太空航行，
02:13
we can rely upon
mission control in Houston
mission control in Houston
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我們可以仰賴位於休士頓的控制中心
02:17
to watch over all aspects of a flight.
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來監控這段旅程的所有層面。
02:19
However, Mars is 200 times further away,
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然而，火星的距離比月球遠了200倍，
02:22
and as a result it takes
on average 13 minutes
on average 13 minutes
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一個訊號平均要花 13 分鐘，
02:25
for a signal to travel
from the Earth to Mars.
from the Earth to Mars.
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才能從地球傳送到火星。
02:29
If there's trouble,
there's not enough time.
there's not enough time.
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如果發生了任何狀況，
根本不夠時間解決。
根本不夠時間解決。
02:32
And so a reasonable engineering solution
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所以一個合理的工程解決方案，
02:35
calls for us to put mission control
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就是把控制中心的位置，
02:37
inside the walls of the Orion spacecraft.
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放在「獵戶座」太空船裡面。
02:41
Another fascinating idea
in the mission profile
in the mission profile
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在任務方面，還有另一個絕妙的點子，
02:43
places humanoid robots
on the surface of Mars
on the surface of Mars
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就是提早在人類之前抵達前，
先在火星表面部署人型機器人。
02:46
before the humans themselves arrive,
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02:48
first to build facilities
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它們首先建造設備，
02:50
and later to serve as collaborative
members of the science team.
members of the science team.
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以後擔任科學小組的協助角色。
02:55
Now, as I looked at this
from an engineering perspective,
from an engineering perspective,
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當我從工程師的角度來看這件事，
02:58
it became very clear to me
that what I needed to architect
that what I needed to architect
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很明顯我需要做的
03:01
was a smart, collaborative,
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就是製作一個聰明、善於合作、
03:03
socially intelligent
artificial intelligence.
artificial intelligence.
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具備社交智能的人工智能電腦。
03:05
In other words, I needed to build
something very much like a HAL
something very much like a HAL
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換句話說，我需要製作一個很像豪爾，
03:10
but without the homicidal tendencies.
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但是沒有殺人的癖好的電腦。
03:12
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:14
Let's pause for a moment.
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讓我們暫停一下。
03:16
Is it really possible to build
an artificial intelligence like that?
an artificial intelligence like that?
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真的有可能，製作出那樣的
人工智慧電腦嗎？
人工智慧電腦嗎？
03:20
Actually, it is.
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確實有可能。
03:22
In many ways,
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就許多方面來說，
03:23
this is a hard engineering problem
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這是一個困難的工程問題，
03:25
with elements of AI,
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其中包含了人工智慧的元素，
03:26
not some wet hair ball of an AI problem
that needs to be engineered.
that needs to be engineered.
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而不是一個難解的人工智能問題。
03:31
To paraphrase Alan Turing,
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就如同艾倫·圖靈所說的，
03:34
I'm not interested
in building a sentient machine.
in building a sentient machine.
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我沒有興趣製造一台情識的機器。
03:36
I'm not building a HAL.
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我所製作的並不是豪爾，
03:38
All I'm after is a simple brain,
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我想要的是一個簡單的大腦，
03:40
something that offers
the illusion of intelligence.
the illusion of intelligence.
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它能夠營造出「具備智慧」的錯覺。
03:45
The art and the science of computing
have come a long way
have come a long way
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在豪爾登台亮相之後，
藝術和計算科學已有了長足的進步。
03:48
since HAL was onscreen,
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03:49
and I'd imagine if his inventor
Dr. Chandra were here today,
Dr. Chandra were here today,
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我想如果它的發明者
強德拉（Chandra）博士今天也在現場，
強德拉（Chandra）博士今天也在現場，
03:52
he'd have a whole lot of questions for us.
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他會有很多問題要問我們。
03:55
Is it really possible for us
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我們是否真的有可能
03:57
to take a system of millions
upon millions of devices,
upon millions of devices,
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讓一個擁有無數元件的系統，
04:01
to read in their data streams,
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去讀自己的數據流，
04:02
to predict their failures
and act in advance?
and act in advance?
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然後預測故障以及提前預防？
04:05
Yes.
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這是可能的。
04:06
Can we build systems that converse
with humans in natural language?
with humans in natural language?
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我們可否做出可使用自然語言
交談的系統？
交談的系統？
04:09
Yes.
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可以。
04:10
Can we build systems
that recognize objects, identify emotions,
that recognize objects, identify emotions,
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我們可否做出能夠
辨別物體、辨識情緒、
辨別物體、辨識情緒、
04:13
emote themselves,
play games and even read lips?
play games and even read lips?
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模擬情緒、玩遊戲，
甚至能讀唇語的系統？
甚至能讀唇語的系統？
04:17
Yes.
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可以。
04:18
Can we build a system that sets goals,
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我們可否做出一個能夠設定目標，
04:20
that carries out plans against those goals
and learns along the way?
and learns along the way?
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並一面執行朝向目標的計劃，
同時在過程中學習的系統？
同時在過程中學習的系統？
04:24
Yes.
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可以。
04:25
Can we build systems
that have a theory of mind?
that have a theory of mind?
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我們可否做出具備心智理論的系統？
04:28
This we are learning to do.
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這個目前我們還在學習做。
04:30
Can we build systems that have
an ethical and moral foundation?
an ethical and moral foundation?
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我們可否做出擁有
倫理與道德基礎的系統？
倫理與道德基礎的系統？
04:34
This we must learn how to do.
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這個我們必須摸索如何做。
04:37
So let's accept for a moment
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所以讓我們姑且相信
04:38
that it's possible to build
such an artificial intelligence
such an artificial intelligence
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建造這樣的人工智能系統有可能成真，
04:41
for this kind of mission and others.
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以用在諸如此類和其他的任務。
04:43
The next question
you must ask yourself is,
you must ask yourself is,
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接下來我們必須捫心自問，
04:46
should we fear it?
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我們是否應該感到害怕？
04:47
Now, every new technology
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誠然，每一項新的科技
04:49
brings with it
some measure of trepidation.
some measure of trepidation.
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都會帶來某種程度的擔憂。
04:52
When we first saw cars,
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當汽車問世的時候，
04:54
people lamented that we would see
the destruction of the family.
the destruction of the family.
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眾人都在哀嘆家庭可能因此而毀滅。
04:58
When we first saw telephones come in,
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當電話問世的時候，
05:01
people were worried it would destroy
all civil conversation.
all civil conversation.
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眾人擔心日常的對話會不復存在。
05:04
At a point in time we saw
the written word become pervasive,
the written word become pervasive,
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當書面文字風行的時候，
05:08
people thought we would lose
our ability to memorize.
our ability to memorize.
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眾人以為我們會失去記憶的能力。
05:10
These things are all true to a degree,
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這些擔憂在某種程度上都有所根據，
05:12
but it's also the case
that these technologies
that these technologies
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但同時這些科技
05:15
brought to us things
that extended the human experience
that extended the human experience
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以某些深刻的方式，
帶給我們許多拓展人類經驗的事物。
05:18
in some profound ways.
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05:21
So let's take this a little further.
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讓我們再繼續探討。
05:25
I do not fear the creation
of an AI like this,
of an AI like this,
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我並不懼怕創造
像這樣的人工智能系統，
像這樣的人工智能系統，
05:29
because it will eventually
embody some of our values.
embody some of our values.
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因為它最終會
體現我們的一些價值觀。
體現我們的一些價值觀。
05:33
Consider this: building a cognitive system
is fundamentally different
is fundamentally different
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思考一下：建造認知系統
與過去建造傳統
軟體密集型的系統根本不同。
軟體密集型的系統根本不同。
05:37
than building a traditional
software-intensive system of the past.
software-intensive system of the past.
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05:40
We don't program them. We teach them.
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我們不寫電腦程式。我們教它們。
05:43
In order to teach a system
how to recognize flowers,
how to recognize flowers,
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為了教導系統如何辨識花，
05:45
I show it thousands of flowers
of the kinds I like.
of the kinds I like.
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我給它們看數以千計
我喜歡的花的圖片。
我喜歡的花的圖片。
05:48
In order to teach a system
how to play a game --
how to play a game --
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為了教系統如何玩遊戲－－
05:51
Well, I would. You would, too.
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我會，你也會。
05:54
I like flowers. Come on.
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我喜歡花。你也是吧！
05:57
To teach a system
how to play a game like Go,
how to play a game like Go,
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為了教系統如何玩遊戲，例如圍棋，
06:00
I'd have it play thousands of games of Go,
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我會讓它一面下數千局圍棋，
06:02
but in the process I also teach it
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也在下棋的過程中
教它如何分辨好的、不好的棋局。
06:04
how to discern
a good game from a bad game.
a good game from a bad game.
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06:06
If I want to create an artificially
intelligent legal assistant,
intelligent legal assistant,
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如果我要造個人工智能的法律助理，
06:10
I will teach it some corpus of law
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我會教它一些法律，
06:12
but at the same time I am fusing with it
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同時我會將它與憐憫的感覺
06:14
the sense of mercy and justice
that is part of that law.
that is part of that law.
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和法律正義融合在一起。
06:18
In scientific terms,
this is what we call ground truth,
this is what we call ground truth,
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以科學術語方面，
這就是我們所謂的真理，
這就是我們所謂的真理，
06:21
and here's the important point:
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重點來了：
06:23
in producing these machines,
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在製造這些機器時，
06:25
we are therefore teaching them
a sense of our values.
a sense of our values.
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我們因此教它們我們的價值感。
06:28
To that end, I trust
an artificial intelligence
an artificial intelligence
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為此，我相信人工智能
06:31
the same, if not more,
as a human who is well-trained.
as a human who is well-trained.
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至少不會輸給訓練有素的人。
06:36
But, you may ask,
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但是，你可能問，
06:37
what about rogue agents,
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那些流氓代理，
06:39
some well-funded
nongovernment organization?
nongovernment organization?
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那些資金豐富的非政府組織呢？
06:43
I do not fear an artificial intelligence
in the hand of a lone wolf.
in the hand of a lone wolf.
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我不擔心獨狼（獨行俠）
手上的人工智能。
手上的人工智能。
06:47
Clearly, we cannot protect ourselves
against all random acts of violence,
against all random acts of violence,
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很顯然，我們無法防禦
所有隨機的暴力行為，
所有隨機的暴力行為，
06:51
but the reality is such a system
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但是現實是這種系統，
06:53
requires substantial training
and subtle training
and subtle training
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需要大量的訓練和微妙的訓練，
06:57
far beyond the resources of an individual.
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非個人的資源所能及。
06:59
And furthermore,
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此外，
07:00
it's far more than just injecting
an internet virus to the world,
an internet virus to the world,
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遠遠超出像把互聯網病毒注入世界，
07:03
where you push a button,
all of a sudden it's in a million places
all of a sudden it's in a million places
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只要按個按鈕，
頃刻之間病毒就會散播各處，
頃刻之間病毒就會散播各處，
07:06
and laptops start blowing up
all over the place.
all over the place.
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所有地方的筆電開始當機。
07:09
Now, these kinds of substances
are much larger,
are much larger,
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這些實質要大得多，
07:12
and we'll certainly see them coming.
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我們確定會看到它們的到來。
07:14
Do I fear that such
an artificial intelligence
an artificial intelligence
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我擔心這樣的人工智能
07:17
might threaten all of humanity?
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會威脅全體人類嗎？
07:20
If you look at movies
such as "The Matrix," "Metropolis,"
such as "The Matrix," "Metropolis,"
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電影如《駭客任務》、
《大都會》、《魔鬼終結者》，
《大都會》、《魔鬼終結者》，
07:24
"The Terminator,"
shows such as "Westworld,"
shows such as "Westworld,"
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電視劇像是《西方極樂園》，
07:27
they all speak of this kind of fear.
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都是在談這種恐懼。
07:30
Indeed, in the book "Superintelligence"
by the philosopher Nick Bostrom,
by the philosopher Nick Bostrom,
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的確，在哲學家尼克· 博斯特倫
寫的 《超級智能》書裡，
寫的 《超級智能》書裡，
07:34
he picks up on this theme
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他以此主題，
07:35
and observes that a superintelligence
might not only be dangerous,
might not only be dangerous,
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主張超智能不僅危險，
07:39
it could represent an existential threat
to all of humanity.
to all of humanity.
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還可能威脅全人類的存亡。
07:43
Dr. Bostrom's basic argument
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博斯特倫博士的基本論點是：
07:46
is that such systems will eventually
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這種系統最終
07:48
have such an insatiable
thirst for information
thirst for information
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將會不屈不撓地渴望資訊，
07:52
that they will perhaps learn how to learn
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它們或許會學習到如何學習的方法，
07:55
and eventually discover
that they may have goals
that they may have goals
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最終發現它們的目標
可能與人類的背道而馳。
07:57
that are contrary to human needs.
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08:00
Dr. Bostrom has a number of followers.
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博斯特倫博士有不少追隨者。
08:01
He is supported by people
such as Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking.
such as Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking.
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他得到伊隆·馬斯克和
史蒂芬·霍金等人的支持。
史蒂芬·霍金等人的支持。
08:06
With all due respect
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我非常尊重
08:10
to these brilliant minds,
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這些非常聰明的人，
08:12
I believe that they
are fundamentally wrong.
are fundamentally wrong.
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但是我相信他們從根本上就是錯誤的，
08:14
Now, there are a lot of pieces
of Dr. Bostrom's argument to unpack,
of Dr. Bostrom's argument to unpack,
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博斯格羅姆博士的許多說法
需要被詳細分析，
需要被詳細分析，
08:17
and I don't have time to unpack them all,
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但在此我沒有時間分別解說。
08:19
but very briefly, consider this:
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簡要的說，就考慮這個：
08:22
super knowing is very different
than super doing.
than super doing.
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超智能與超執行完全是兩回事。
08:26
HAL was a threat to the Discovery crew
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只有當豪爾全面掌控「發現號」時，
08:28
only insofar as HAL commanded
all aspects of the Discovery.
all aspects of the Discovery.
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才對「發現號」的組員造成威脅。
08:32
So it would have to be
with a superintelligence.
with a superintelligence.
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所以它就必須是有超智慧。
08:35
It would have to have dominion
over all of our world.
over all of our world.
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它必須擁有對我們全世界的統治權。
08:37
This is the stuff of Skynet
from the movie "The Terminator"
from the movie "The Terminator"
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這是電影《魔鬼終結者》 裡的
「天網」所具有的。
「天網」所具有的。
08:40
in which we had a superintelligence
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它有超智能
08:42
that commanded human will,
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來指揮的人的意志，
08:43
that directed every device
that was in every corner of the world.
that was in every corner of the world.
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來操控世界每一個角落的每個設備。
08:47
Practically speaking,
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實際上，
08:49
it ain't gonna happen.
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這不會發生。
08:51
We are not building AIs
that control the weather,
that control the weather,
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我們不是製造人工智能來控制氣候、
08:54
that direct the tides,
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控制海潮，
08:55
that command us
capricious, chaotic humans.
capricious, chaotic humans.
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指揮反覆無常和混亂的人類。
08:59
And furthermore, if such
an artificial intelligence existed,
an artificial intelligence existed,
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此外，如果這樣的人工智能真的存在，
09:03
it would have to compete
with human economies,
with human economies,
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它必須與人類的經濟競爭，
09:06
and thereby compete for resources with us.
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從而與我們競爭資源。
09:09
And in the end --
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最後，
09:10
don't tell Siri this --
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不要告訴 Siri 這個——
09:12
we can always unplug them.
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我們可以隨時拔掉它們的插頭。
09:13
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:17
We are on an incredible journey
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我們正處於與我們的機器共同演化的
09:19
of coevolution with our machines.
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一個難以置信的旅程。
09:22
The humans we are today
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今天的人類
09:24
are not the humans we will be then.
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不是屆時的人類。
09:27
To worry now about the rise
of a superintelligence
of a superintelligence
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現在擔心超級智能的出現，
09:30
is in many ways a dangerous distraction
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會使我們在許多方面危險地分心，
09:33
because the rise of computing itself
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因為計算機本身的興起，
09:36
brings to us a number
of human and societal issues
of human and societal issues
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帶來的許多人類和社會問題，
09:39
to which we must now attend.
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我們現在就必須解決。
09:41
How shall I best organize society
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當人力的需要逐漸減少時，
09:44
when the need for human labor diminishes?
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我們如何重整這個社會？
09:46
How can I bring understanding
and education throughout the globe
and education throughout the globe
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我該如何為全球帶來理解和教育
09:50
and still respect our differences?
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而仍然尊重我們彼此的分歧？
09:52
How might I extend and enhance human life
through cognitive healthcare?
through cognitive healthcare?
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我們如何通過認知保健
延伸和增強人的生命？
延伸和增強人的生命？
09:56
How might I use computing
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我如何使用計算技術
09:59
to help take us to the stars?
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來幫助我們去到其他星球？
10:01
And that's the exciting thing.
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這是令人興奮的事。
10:04
The opportunities to use computing
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透過計算技術的運用，
10:06
to advance the human experience
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來拓展人類經驗的機會，
10:08
are within our reach,
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就在我們眼前。
10:09
here and now,
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此時、此刻，
10:11
and we are just beginning.
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我們才正要起步而已。
10:14
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝各位。
10:15
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Grady Booch - Scientist, philosopherIBM's Grady Booch is shaping the future of cognitive computing by building intelligent systems that can reason and learn.
Why you should listen
When he was 13, Grady Booch saw 2001: A Space Odyssey in the theaters for the first time. Ever since, he's been trying to build Hal (albeit one without the homicidal tendencies). A scientist, storyteller and philosopher, Booch is Chief Scientist for Software Engineering as well as Chief Scientist for Watson/M at IBM Research, where he leads IBM's research and development for embodied cognition. Having originated the term and the practice of object-oriented design, he is best known for his work in advancing the fields of software engineering and software architecture.
A co-author of the Unified Modeling Language (UML), a founding member of the Agile Allianc, and a founding member of the Hillside Group, Booch has published six books and several hundred technical articles, including an ongoing column for IEEE Software. He's also a trustee for the Computer History Museum, an IBM Fellow, an ACM Fellow and IEEE Fellow. He has been awarded the Lovelace Medal and has given the Turing Lecture for the BCS, and was recently named an IEEE Computer Pioneer.
Booch is currently deeply involved in the development of cognitive systems and is also developing a major trans-media documentary for public broadcast on the intersection of computing and the human experience.
Grady Booch | Speaker | TED.com