ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bruce Schneier - Security expert
Bruce Schneier thinks hard about security -- as a computer security guru, and as a philosopher of the larger notion of making a safer world.

Why you should listen

Bruce Schneier is an internationally renowned security technologist and author. Described by the Economist as a "security guru," he is best known as a refreshingly candid and lucid security critic and commentator. When people want to know how security really works, they turn to Schneier.

His first bestseller, Applied Cryptography, explained how the arcane science of secret codes actually works, and was described by Wired as "the book the National Security Agency wanted never to be published." His book on computer and network security, Secrets and Lies, was called by Fortune "[a] jewel box of little surprises you can actually use." Beyond Fear tackles the problems of security from the small to the large: personal safety, crime, corporate security, national security. His current book, Schneier on Security, offers insight into everything from the risk of identity theft (vastly overrated) to the long-range security threat of unchecked presidential power and the surprisingly simple way to tamper-proof elections.

Schneier publishes a free monthly newsletter, Crypto-Gram, with over 150,000 readers. In its ten years of regular publication, Crypto-Gram has become one of the most widely read forums for free-wheeling discussions, pointed critiques and serious debate about security. As head curmudgeon at the table, Schneier explains, debunks and draws lessons from security stories that make the news.

More profile about the speaker
Bruce Schneier | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxPSU

Bruce Schneier: The security mirage

布鲁斯 施奈尔:安全的幻觉

Filmed:
958,315 views

计算机安全专家布鲁斯 施奈尔认为,安全的感觉和现实不总是相符的。在TEDxPSU上,他解释了为什么我们花费数十亿美元去解决新闻故事风险,像现在在你当地机场播放的“安全剧场”,而忽略更多可能的风险,并告诉我们怎么跳出这个模式。
- Security expert
Bruce Schneier thinks hard about security -- as a computer security guru, and as a philosopher of the larger notion of making a safer world. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
So security安全 is two different不同 things:
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安全其实是两种事物:
00:17
it's a feeling感觉, and it's a reality现实.
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它不仅是感觉,也是现实。
00:19
And they're different不同.
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这两样事物是完全不同的。
00:21
You could feel secure安全
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你可以在不安全的时候
00:23
even if you're not.
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感觉很安全。
00:25
And you can be secure安全
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或者你不感到安全的时候
00:27
even if you don't feel it.
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却很安全
00:29
Really, we have two separate分离 concepts概念
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真的,我们有两种不同的概念
00:31
mapped映射 onto the same相同 word.
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存在于同一个词语上。
00:33
And what I want to do in this talk
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我在这里想要做的是
00:35
is to split分裂 them apart距离 --
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把它们区分开来
00:37
figuring盘算 out when they diverge偏离
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找出什么时候它们存在分歧,
00:39
and how they converge汇集.
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什么时候又聚合在一起。
00:41
And language语言 is actually其实 a problem问题 here.
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语言是个大问题。
00:43
There aren't a lot of good words
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因为没有多少适合的词语去表达
00:45
for the concepts概念 we're going to talk about.
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我们将要谈到的概念。
00:48
So if you look at security安全
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如果你将安全
00:50
from economic经济 terms条款,
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视为一个经济学的名词,
00:52
it's a trade-off交易.
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那它就是“权衡取舍”。
00:54
Every一切 time you get some security安全,
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每一次你得到一些安全,
00:56
you're always trading贸易 off something.
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你总是在拿一些东西去交换。
00:58
Whether是否 this is a personal个人 decision决定 --
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不管是个人决定
01:00
whether是否 you're going to install安装 a burglar窃贼 alarm报警 in your home --
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比如是否给家里装一个防盗器
01:02
or a national国民 decision决定 -- where you're going to invade入侵 some foreign国外 country国家 --
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或者国家的决策,比如去侵略哪个国家
01:05
you're going to trade贸易 off something,
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你都要去交换,
01:07
either money or time, convenience方便, capabilities功能,
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不管是金钱、时间、便利、能力,
01:10
maybe fundamental基本的 liberties自由.
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还可能是基本自由权。
01:13
And the question to ask when you look at a security安全 anything
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当你面对安全的时候,要问的
01:16
is not whether是否 this makes品牌 us safer更安全,
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不是这个能不能让我们更安全,
01:19
but whether是否 it's worth价值 the trade-off交易.
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而是值不值得我们去交换。
01:22
You've heard听说 in the past过去 several一些 years年份,
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你们这几年都听过,
01:24
the world世界 is safer更安全 because Saddam萨达姆 Hussein侯赛因 is not in power功率.
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世界更安全了是因为萨达姆倒台了。
01:26
That might威力 be true真正, but it's not terribly可怕 relevant相应.
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那个可能是真的,但没什么关系。
01:29
The question is, was it worth价值 it?
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问题是,值得吗?
01:32
And you can make your own拥有 decision决定,
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你可以有自己的想法,
01:35
and then you'll你会 decide决定 whether是否 the invasion侵入 was worth价值 it.
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然后决定那个侵略是否值得
01:37
That's how you think about security安全 --
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那就是你如何在以权衡取舍
01:39
in terms条款 of the trade-off交易.
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来考虑安全。
01:41
Now there's often经常 no right or wrong错误 here.
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这里没有绝对的对与错。
01:44
Some of us have a burglar窃贼 alarm报警 system系统 at home,
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我们中的有些人在家安了防盗器
01:46
and some of us don't.
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有些人没有
01:48
And it'll它会 depend依靠 on where we live生活,
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安不安取决于我们住在哪里
01:50
whether是否 we live生活 alone单独 or have a family家庭,
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我们是独居还是有个家庭
01:52
how much cool stuff东东 we have,
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我们有多少值钱的东西
01:54
how much we're willing愿意 to accept接受
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我们愿意接受多少
01:56
the risk风险 of theft盗窃.
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盗窃带来的风险
01:58
In politics政治 also,
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对于政治来说也是一样
02:00
there are different不同 opinions意见.
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存在着各种不同的观点
02:02
A lot of times, these trade-offs权衡
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很多时候,这些权衡取舍
02:04
are about more than just security安全,
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不仅仅跟安全有关
02:06
and I think that's really important重要.
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对于这点我觉得很重要
02:08
Now people have a natural自然 intuition直觉
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当今人们有一种
02:10
about these trade-offs权衡.
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关于这些权衡取舍的直觉
02:12
We make them every一切 day --
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我们每天都在用它来做决定
02:14
last night in my hotel旅馆 room房间,
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比如昨晚我在酒店房间里
02:16
when I decided决定 to double-lock双锁 the door,
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决定是否给门上两层锁的时候
02:18
or you in your car汽车 when you drove开车 here,
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或者你在驾车到这里的路上
02:20
when we go eat lunch午餐
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或者当我们去吃午饭时
02:22
and decide决定 the food's食品的 not poison and we'll eat it.
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会认为食物是没毒的然后放心地吃
02:25
We make these trade-offs权衡 again and again,
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我们反复做出这种权衡取舍
02:27
multiple times a day.
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每天都有很多次
02:29
We often经常 won't惯于 even notice注意 them.
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我们甚至没有留意它们
02:31
They're just part部分 of being存在 alive; we all do it.
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它们只是生活的一部分,人们都是这么做的
02:33
Every一切 species种类 does it.
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每一个物种都是这么做的
02:36
Imagine想像 a rabbit兔子 in a field领域, eating grass,
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想象有一只兔子在吃草
02:38
and the rabbit's going to see a fox狐狸.
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然后它看到了一只狐狸
02:41
That rabbit兔子 will make a security安全 trade-off交易:
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那只兔子需要做出一个关于安全的权衡取舍
02:43
"Should I stay, or should I flee逃跑?"
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“我应该留下,还是逃跑呢?”
02:45
And if you think about it,
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正如你所见
02:47
the rabbits that are good at making制造 that trade-off交易
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懂得做出权衡取舍的兔子
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will tend趋向 to live生活 and reproduce复制,
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会选择生存和繁衍
02:52
and the rabbits that are bad at it
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而不懂的兔子
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will get eaten吃过 or starve饿死.
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则被吃掉
02:56
So you'd think
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所以你可能会想
02:58
that us, as a successful成功 species种类 on the planet行星 --
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作为这个星球上一支成功的物种的我们 --
03:01
you, me, everybody每个人 --
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你、我、所有人 --
03:03
would be really good at making制造 these trade-offs权衡.
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比较擅长于做出有利的权衡取舍
03:06
Yet然而 it seems似乎, again and again,
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然而事实一次又一次地证明
03:08
that we're hopelessly绝望地 bad at it.
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我们并非如此
03:11
And I think that's a fundamentally从根本上 interesting有趣 question.
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我认为那是个关键又有趣的问题
03:14
I'll give you the short answer回答.
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我给你们一个简短的答案
03:16
The answer回答 is, we respond响应 to the feeling感觉 of security安全
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答案就是,我们依据的是安全的感觉
03:18
and not the reality现实.
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而非现实
03:21
Now most of the time, that works作品.
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很多时候,这样没什么问题
03:25
Most of the time,
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因为在大部分时间里
03:27
feeling感觉 and reality现实 are the same相同.
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感觉和现实是相同的
03:30
Certainly当然 that's true真正
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在绝大部分史前人类历史中
03:32
for most of human人的 prehistory史前.
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那也是没错的
03:35
We've我们已经 developed发达 this ability能力
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我们发展了这个能力
03:38
because it makes品牌 evolutionary发展的 sense.
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因为它有利于进化
03:40
One way to think of it
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继续思考一下就知道
03:42
is that we're highly高度 optimized优化
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我们做出某些风险决策的能力
03:44
for risk风险 decisions决定
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是高度优化了的
03:46
that are endemic流行 to living活的 in small family家庭 groups
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这些决策是以群居的小型家庭形式
03:49
in the East African非洲人 highlands高地 in 100,000 B.C.
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生活在公元前十万年的东非高地的人们所独有 --
03:52
2010 New York纽约, not so much.
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其实2010年的纽约也差不多
03:56
Now there are several一些 biases偏见 in risk风险 perception知觉.
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现在有一些对风险的偏见
03:59
A lot of good experiments实验 in this.
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很多实验都关于这些偏见
04:01
And you can see certain某些 biases偏见 that come up again and again.
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你可以观察到有些偏见反复出现
04:04
So I'll give you four.
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我讲四个
04:06
We tend趋向 to exaggerate夸大 spectacular壮观 and rare罕见 risks风险
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第一个,我们会夸大那些耸人听闻但少见的风险
04:09
and downplay淡化 common共同 risks风险 --
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并漠视常见的
04:11
so flying飞行 versus driving主动.
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比如像飞机和汽车的事故率
04:14
The unknown未知 is perceived感知
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第二个,未知的被认为比熟悉的
04:16
to be riskier风险较高 than the familiar.
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更加危险
04:20
One example would be,
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举个例子
04:22
people fear恐惧 kidnapping绑架 by strangers陌生人
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人们害怕被陌生人绑架
04:25
when the data数据 supports支持 kidnapping绑架 by relatives亲戚们 is much more common共同.
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即使数据证实被亲戚绑架更常见
04:28
This is for children孩子.
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以上都是针对孩子们来说的
04:30
Third第三, personified人格化 risks风险
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第三个,人格化的风险
04:33
are perceived感知 to be greater更大 than anonymous匿名 risks风险 --
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被认为比匿名的更严重
04:36
so Bin箱子 Laden拉登 is scarier可怕 because he has a name名称.
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所以本拉登很可怕是因为他有个名字
04:39
And the fourth第四
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第四个是
04:41
is people underestimate低估 risks风险
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人们在他们觉得可以掌控的情况下
04:43
in situations情况 they do control控制
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会低估风险
04:45
and overestimate估计过高 them in situations情况 they don't control控制.
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而在不能控制的情况下高估风险
04:49
So once一旦 you take up skydiving跳伞 or smoking抽烟,
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所以你在开始跳伞或抽烟后
04:52
you downplay淡化 the risks风险.
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会不再重视它们带来的风险
04:54
If a risk风险 is thrust推力 upon you -- terrorism恐怖主义 was a good example --
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如果你猛然面临某种风险 -- 恐怖主义是个好例子 --
04:57
you'll你会 overplay表演过火 it because you don't feel like it's in your control控制.
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你会高估它,因为你不觉得你可以控制了
05:02
There are a bunch of other of these biases偏见, these cognitive认知 biases偏见,
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还有许多这样的认知偏见
05:05
that affect影响 our risk风险 decisions决定.
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影响着我们的风险决策
05:08
There's the availability可用性 heuristic启发式,
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有一种易得性偏差
05:10
which哪一个 basically基本上 means手段
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意思是
05:12
we estimate估计 the probability可能性 of something
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我们在估计某事发生的概率时
05:15
by how easy简单 it is to bring带来 instances实例 of it to mind心神.
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依据的是想到具体的例子是否容易
05:19
So you can imagine想像 how that works作品.
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你可以想象那是怎么作用的
05:21
If you hear a lot about tiger attacks攻击, there must必须 be a lot of tigers老虎 around.
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如果你听说了许多老虎袭击人的消息,那么你会认为肯定有很多老虎在附近
05:24
You don't hear about lion狮子 attacks攻击, there aren't a lot of lions狮子 around.
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如果你没听说狮子袭击人,那么就没有多少狮子在附近
05:27
This works作品 until直到 you invent发明 newspapers报纸.
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这是可行的直到报纸被发明
05:30
Because what newspapers报纸 do
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因为报纸所做的
05:32
is they repeat重复 again and again
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就是一遍又一遍地重复
05:34
rare罕见 risks风险.
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那些少见的风险
05:36
I tell people, if it's in the news新闻, don't worry担心 about it.
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我告诉大家,如果事情出现在新闻里,那就不用担心了
05:38
Because by definition定义,
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因为按照定义
05:40
news新闻 is something that almost几乎 never happens发生.
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新闻是从来没有发生过的事情
05:43
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
05:45
When something is so common共同, it's no longer news新闻 --
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当事情变得常见了,那就不是新闻了
05:48
car汽车 crashes崩溃, domestic国内 violence暴力 --
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比如车祸和家庭暴力
05:50
those are the risks风险 you worry担心 about.
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你会担心这些风险
05:53
We're also a species种类 of storytellers讲故事的人.
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我们同时也是一种会讲故事的物种
05:55
We respond响应 to stories故事 more than data数据.
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相比于数据,我们更喜欢故事
05:58
And there's some basic基本 innumeracy数学盲 going on.
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在故事里,总有些对科学的无知存在
06:00
I mean, the joke玩笑 "One, Two, Three, Many许多" is kind of right.
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比如 “一、二、三、很多”(见英文) 这个笑话
06:03
We're really good at small numbers数字.
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我们善于用小数字
06:06
One mango芒果, two mangoes芒果, three mangoes芒果,
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一个芒果,两个芒果,三个芒果
06:08
10,000 mangoes芒果, 100,000 mangoes芒果 --
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一万个芒果,十万个芒果 --
06:10
it's still more mangoes芒果 you can eat before they rot腐烂.
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在烂掉前还有足够的芒果等你去吃
06:13
So one half, one quarter25美分硬币, one fifth第五 -- we're good at that.
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二分之一,四分之一,五分之一 -- 我们擅长这些
06:16
One in a million百万, one in a billion十亿 --
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百万分之一,十亿分之一 --
06:18
they're both almost几乎 never.
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它们就像永远不会发生那样
06:21
So we have trouble麻烦 with the risks风险
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所以我们不知如何面对
06:23
that aren't very common共同.
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那些不常见的风险
06:25
And what these cognitive认知 biases偏见 do
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这些认知偏见所起的作用
06:27
is they act法案 as filters过滤器 between之间 us and reality现实.
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就是像过滤器一样隔断我们和现实
06:30
And the result结果
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结果呢
06:32
is that feeling感觉 and reality现实 get out of whack重打,
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感觉和现实被割开
06:34
they get different不同.
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它们变得不同了
06:37
Now you either have a feeling感觉 -- you feel more secure安全 than you are.
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现在你要么有种感觉 -- 你觉得比现实更加安全
06:40
There's a false sense of security安全.
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这是一个错误的安全感
06:42
Or the other way,
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要么相反
06:44
and that's a false sense of insecurity不安全.
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出现错误的不安全感
06:46
I write a lot about "security安全 theater剧院,"
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我写了很多关于”安全剧场“的文章
06:49
which哪一个 are products制品 that make people feel secure安全,
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这个概念只起到让人们觉得很安全的作用
06:52
but don't actually其实 do anything.
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除此之外一无是处
06:54
There's no real真实 word for stuff东东 that makes品牌 us secure安全,
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现实世界里不存在让我们安全
06:56
but doesn't make us feel secure安全.
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但不让我们觉得安全的事物
06:58
Maybe it's what the CIA's中情局 supposed应该 to do for us.
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可能这就是CIA应该为我们做的
07:03
So back to economics经济学.
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好了,回到经济学里
07:05
If economics经济学, if the market市场, drives驱动器 security安全,
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如果经济,或者市场,以安全为重
07:09
and if people make trade-offs权衡
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并且人们根据安全的感觉
07:11
based基于 on the feeling感觉 of security安全,
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作出权衡取舍
07:14
then the smart聪明 thing for companies公司 to do
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那么精明的公司所应该做的
07:16
for the economic经济 incentives奖励
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为了经济上的激励
07:18
are to make people feel secure安全.
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就是让人们觉得安全
07:21
And there are two ways方法 to do this.
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有两种方法可以做到
07:24
One, you can make people actually其实 secure安全
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一,你可以真正地做到安全
07:26
and hope希望 they notice注意.
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然后希望人们可以注意到
07:28
Or two, you can make people just feel secure安全
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二,你可以让人们觉得安全
07:31
and hope希望 they don't notice注意.
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然后希望他们没有注意到真相
07:35
So what makes品牌 people notice注意?
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那么到底什么可以引起人们注意是否安全呢?
07:38
Well a couple一对 of things:
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有很多,比如
07:40
understanding理解 of the security安全,
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对安全的理解
07:42
of the risks风险, the threats威胁,
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对风险和威胁的理解
07:44
the countermeasures对策, how they work.
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对 对策及其原理的理解
07:47
But if you know stuff东东,
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如果你知道很多东西
07:49
you're more likely容易 to have your feelings情怀 match比赛 reality现实.
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那么你更有可能拥有与现实一致的感觉
07:52
Enough足够 real真实 world世界 examples例子 helps帮助.
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很多现实生活中的例子可以帮助理解
07:55
Now we all know the crime犯罪 rate in our neighborhood邻里,
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比如我们都了解我们居住的地区的犯罪率
07:58
because we live生活 there, and we get a feeling感觉 about it
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因为我们住在那,并且我们能够感受的到
08:01
that basically基本上 matches火柴 reality现实.
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这种感觉与现实基本相符
08:04
Security安全 theater's戏剧的 exposed裸露
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”安全剧场“会在失灵的时候
08:07
when it's obvious明显 that it's not working加工 properly正确.
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很明显的暴露出来
08:10
Okay, so what makes品牌 people not notice注意?
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好,接下来,什么让人们不去注意安全呢?
08:14
Well, a poor较差的 understanding理解.
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这里有个简单的理解
08:16
If you don't understand理解 the risks风险, you don't understand理解 the costs成本,
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如果你不理解风险,你就不理解成本
08:19
you're likely容易 to get the trade-off交易 wrong错误,
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你就会做出错误的权衡取舍
08:21
and your feeling感觉 doesn't match比赛 reality现实.
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并且你的感觉与现实不符
08:24
Not enough足够 examples例子.
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没多少例子
08:26
There's an inherent固有 problem问题
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在小概率事件里
08:28
with low probability可能性 events事件.
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存在一个固有的问题
08:30
If, for example,
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举个例子
08:32
terrorism恐怖主义 almost几乎 never happens发生,
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如果恐怖行动从来没发生过
08:34
it's really hard to judge法官
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那么就很难对反恐措施的效果
08:36
the efficacy功效 of counter-terrorist反恐 measures措施.
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进行衡量
08:40
This is why you keep sacrificing牺牲 virgins处女,
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这是为什么人们牺牲处女
08:43
and why your unicorn独角兽 defenses防御 are working加工 just great.
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和对童话的抵触会如此成功的原因
08:46
There aren't enough足够 examples例子 of failures故障.
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鲜有失败的例子
08:50
Also, feelings情怀 that are clouding混浊 the issues问题 --
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同时,对于事情的感觉
08:53
the cognitive认知 biases偏见 I talked about earlier,
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-- 之前说的认知偏见
08:55
fears恐惧, folk民间 beliefs信仰,
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恐惧和盲目相信熟悉的人 --
08:58
basically基本上 an inadequate不足 model模型 of reality现实.
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基本上一个对现实的不完整模型
09:02
So let me complicate复杂 things.
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让我深入一点
09:05
I have feeling感觉 and reality现实.
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我现在有感觉和现实
09:07
I want to add a third第三 element元件. I want to add model模型.
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我想加入第三个元素,一个模型
09:10
Feeling感觉 and model模型 in our head,
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感觉和模型存在于脑海里
09:12
reality现实 is the outside world世界.
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现实存在于外部世界
09:14
It doesn't change更改; it's real真实.
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它是不会变的,它是真实的
09:17
So feeling感觉 is based基于 on our intuition直觉.
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所以感觉是建立在直觉上的
09:19
Model模型 is based基于 on reason原因.
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模型是建立在理智上的
09:21
That's basically基本上 the difference区别.
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那是关键的不同之处
09:24
In a primitive原始 and simple简单 world世界,
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在一个原始又简单的世界里
09:26
there's really no reason原因 for a model模型
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没有建立模型的必要
09:29
because feeling感觉 is close to reality现实.
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因为感觉和现实很接近
09:32
You don't need a model模型.
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你不需要
09:34
But in a modern现代 and complex复杂 world世界,
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但是在现在这个复杂的世界里
09:36
you need models楷模
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你需要模型
09:38
to understand理解 a lot of the risks风险 we face面对.
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去理解面对的很多风险
09:42
There's no feeling感觉 about germs病菌.
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比如说,没有什么感觉是关于细菌的
09:44
You need a model模型 to understand理解 them.
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你需要一个模型去了解它们
09:47
So this model模型
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所以这个模型
09:49
is an intelligent智能 representation表示 of reality现实.
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是在理智层面上的现实
09:52
It's, of course课程, limited有限 by science科学,
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它当然被科学和技术
09:55
by technology技术.
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所限制着
09:57
We couldn't不能 have a germ病菌 theory理论 of disease疾病
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我们没法在发明显微镜观察细菌前
10:00
before we invented发明 the microscope显微镜 to see them.
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拥有一套关于细菌和疾病的理论
10:04
It's limited有限 by our cognitive认知 biases偏见.
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它同时也被我们的认知偏见所限制
10:07
But it has the ability能力
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但模型有能力
10:09
to override覆盖 our feelings情怀.
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凌驾于我们的感觉
10:11
Where do we get these models楷模? We get them from others其他.
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我们从哪里得到这些模型的呢?从其他人那里
10:14
We get them from religion宗教, from culture文化,
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从宗教、文化
10:17
teachers教师, elders长老.
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老师、长辈那里得到
10:19
A couple一对 years年份 ago,
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很多年前
10:21
I was in South Africa非洲 on safari苹果浏览器.
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我在南非狩猎
10:23
The tracker跟踪器 I was with grew成长 up in Kruger克鲁格 National国民 Park公园.
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跟我一起的那个追踪者是在克鲁格国家公园长大的
10:26
He had some very complex复杂 models楷模 of how to survive生存.
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他有一些如何生存的复杂模型
10:29
And it depended依赖 on if you were attacked袭击
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分别针对被狮子、猎豹、
10:31
by a lion狮子 or a leopard or a rhino犀牛 or an elephant --
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犀牛还是大象所攻击的情况
10:33
and when you had to run away, and when you couldn't不能 run away, and when you had to climb a tree --
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和什么时候应该逃跑,什么时候应该爬树
10:36
when you could never climb a tree.
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和什么时候千万别上树
10:38
I would have died死亡 in a day,
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我可能会在一天内就死在那里
10:41
but he was born天生 there,
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但他生在那里
10:43
and he understood了解 how to survive生存.
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他知道生存的方法
10:45
I was born天生 in New York纽约 City.
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我生在纽约
10:47
I could have taken采取 him to New York纽约, and he would have died死亡 in a day.
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我可以把他带到纽约,估计他也会在一天内就没命了
10:50
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑)
10:52
Because we had different不同 models楷模
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原因在我们有建立在我们各自经验上的
10:54
based基于 on our different不同 experiences经验.
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不同的模型
10:58
Models楷模 can come from the media媒体,
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模型来自媒体
11:00
from our elected当选 officials官员.
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来自我们选出的政府
11:03
Think of models楷模 of terrorism恐怖主义,
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想一下恐怖袭击的模型
11:06
child儿童 kidnapping绑架,
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绑架儿童的模型
11:09
airline航空公司 safety安全, car汽车 safety安全.
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飞机和汽车的安全模型
11:11
Models楷模 can come from industry行业.
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模型可以来自某个工业领域
11:14
The two I'm following以下 are surveillance监控 cameras相机,
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我关注的两个是监视器
11:16
IDID cards,
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和身份证
11:18
quite相当 a lot of our computer电脑 security安全 models楷模 come from there.
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很多计算机安全模型都来自它们
11:21
A lot of models楷模 come from science科学.
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还有些模型来自科学
11:24
Health健康 models楷模 are a great example.
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以健康模型为例
11:26
Think of cancer癌症, of bird flu流感, swine flu流感, SARSSARS.
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想想癌症、禽流感、猪流感、非典
11:29
All of our feelings情怀 of security安全
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我们所有关于
11:32
about those diseases疾病
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这些疾病的感觉
11:34
come from models楷模
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都来自于
11:36
given特定 to us, really, by science科学 filtered过滤 through通过 the media媒体.
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媒体从科学里过滤出来之后灌输给我们的
11:40
So models楷模 can change更改.
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所以模型是可变的
11:43
Models楷模 are not static静态的.
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模型不是静态的
11:45
As we become成为 more comfortable自在 in our environments环境,
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随着我们越来越适应环境
11:48
our model模型 can move移动 closer接近 to our feelings情怀.
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模型会越来越接近现实
11:53
So an example might威力 be,
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举个例子
11:55
if you go back 100 years年份 ago
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如果你回到一百年前
11:57
when electricity电力 was first becoming变得 common共同,
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那时电刚刚普及
12:00
there were a lot of fears恐惧 about it.
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仍然有很多人害怕它
12:02
I mean, there were people who were afraid害怕 to push doorbells门铃,
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有些人害怕按门铃
12:04
because there was electricity电力 in there, and that was dangerous危险.
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因为那有电,所以很危险
12:07
For us, we're very facile灵巧的 around electricity电力.
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对于我们来说,我们跟电相处地很融洽
12:10
We change更改 light bulbs灯泡
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我们不用怎么想
12:12
without even thinking思维 about it.
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就可以换灯泡
12:14
Our model模型 of security安全 around electricity电力
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我们拥有的关于电和安全的模型
12:18
is something we were born天生 into.
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是天生的
12:21
It hasn't有没有 changed as we were growing生长 up.
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它没有随着我们的成长而变化
12:24
And we're good at it.
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并且我们很适应
12:27
Or think of the risks风险
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再想想在不同年龄层的人
12:29
on the Internet互联网 across横过 generations --
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关于互联网风险的认识 --
12:31
how your parents父母 approach途径 Internet互联网 security安全,
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你的父母是怎么看待互联网安全的
12:33
versus how you do,
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你是怎么看待的
12:35
versus how our kids孩子 will.
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你的孩子们会怎么看待
12:38
Models楷模 eventually终于 fade褪色 into the background背景.
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模型最终会消失在无意识里
12:42
Intuitive直观的 is just another另一个 word for familiar.
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直觉来自于熟悉
12:45
So as your model模型 is close to reality现实,
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所以随着你的模型越来越接近现实
12:47
and it converges收敛 with feelings情怀,
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它将同感觉合二为一
12:49
you often经常 don't know it's there.
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你将感觉不到它的存在
12:52
So a nice不错 example of this
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以去年的猪流感为例
12:54
came来了 from last year and swine flu流感.
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以去年的猪流感为例
12:57
When swine flu流感 first appeared出现,
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当猪流感第一次出现时
12:59
the initial初始 news新闻 caused造成 a lot of overreaction过度反应.
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一开始的新闻造成了过度的反应
13:03
Now it had a name名称,
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现在它有了个名字
13:05
which哪一个 made制作 it scarier可怕 than the regular定期 flu流感,
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使之变得比平常的流感更加可怕
13:07
even though虽然 it was more deadly致命.
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即使它没那么致命
13:09
And people thought doctors医生 should be able能够 to deal合同 with it.
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另外,人们觉得医生应该能够解决掉它
13:13
So there was that feeling感觉 of lack缺乏 of control控制.
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所以产生了一种失去控制的感觉
13:15
And those two things
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以上两种原因
13:17
made制作 the risk风险 more than it was.
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使风险变得比实际更严重
13:19
As the novelty新奇 wore穿着 off, the months个月 went by,
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几个月过去了,随着新鲜感的消退
13:22
there was some amount of tolerance公差,
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人们接受了
13:24
people got used to it.
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并且习惯了猪流感的事情
13:26
There was no new data数据, but there was less fear恐惧.
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没有新的数据,但恐惧减少了
13:29
By autumn秋季,
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秋天的时候
13:31
people thought
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人们想
13:33
the doctors医生 should have solved解决了 this already已经.
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医生应该已经解决问题了
13:35
And there's kind of a bifurcation分枝 --
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一个选择出现了 --
13:37
people had to choose选择
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人们必须从
13:39
between之间 fear恐惧 and acceptance验收 --
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恐惧接受中选择 --
13:43
actually其实 fear恐惧 and indifference漠不关心 --
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实际上是恐惧和漠视 --
13:45
they kind of chose选择 suspicion怀疑.
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他们选择了怀疑
13:48
And when the vaccine疫苗 appeared出现 last winter冬季,
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当疫苗在冬天出现的时候
13:51
there were a lot of people -- a surprising奇怪 number --
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很多人 -- 非常大的数量 --
13:54
who refused拒绝 to get it --
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拒绝接种
13:58
as a nice不错 example
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这可以作为
14:00
of how people's人们 feelings情怀 of security安全 change更改, how their model模型 changes变化,
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人们的安全感和模型是如何
14:03
sort分类 of wildly疯狂
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剧烈地
14:05
with no new information信息,
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在没有新信息
14:07
with no new input输入.
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的情况下改变的
14:09
This kind of thing happens发生 a lot.
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这种情况经常发生
14:12
I'm going to give one more complication并发症.
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现在我再把概念深入一点
14:15
We have feeling感觉, model模型, reality现实.
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我们有感觉、模型和现实
14:18
I have a very relativistic相对论 view视图 of security安全.
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我认为安全其实还是相对的
14:20
I think it depends依靠 on the observer观察者.
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它取决于观察者
14:23
And most security安全 decisions决定
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大多数关于安全的决策
14:25
have a variety品种 of people involved参与.
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是由各种人群所参与决定的
14:29
And stakeholders利益相关者
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有小算盘的利益相关者
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with specific具体 trade-offs权衡
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有小算盘的利益相关者
14:34
will try to influence影响 the decision决定.
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会试着影响决策的进行
14:36
And I call that their agenda议程.
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我称其为他们的议程
14:38
And you see agenda议程 --
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你可以瞧见这个议程 --
14:40
this is marketing营销, this is politics政治 --
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不管是市场还是政治 --
14:43
trying to convince说服 you to have one model模型 versus another另一个,
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它尝试着说服你只拥有其中一种模型
14:46
trying to convince说服 you to ignore忽视 a model模型
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说服你去忽视模型
14:48
and trust相信 your feelings情怀,
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而相信感觉
14:51
marginalizing边缘化 people with models楷模 you don't like.
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边缘化那些拥有跟你的模型的不同的人们
14:54
This is not uncommon罕见.
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这很常见
14:57
An example, a great example, is the risk风险 of smoking抽烟.
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这里有个例子,很好的例子,关于吸烟的危害
15:01
In the history历史 of the past过去 50 years年份, the smoking抽烟 risk风险
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在过去50年里,吸烟的危害
15:04
shows节目 how a model模型 changes变化,
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展示了一个模型是怎么变化的
15:06
and it also shows节目 how an industry行业 fights打架 against反对
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同时也展示了一个工业是怎么对付
15:09
a model模型 it doesn't like.
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一个它不喜欢的模型
15:11
Compare比较 that to the secondhand二手 smoke抽烟 debate辩论 --
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你可以把它跟20年后
15:14
probably大概 about 20 years年份 behind背后.
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关于二手烟的争论相比较
15:17
Think about seat座位 belts皮带.
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再想想安全带
15:19
When I was a kid孩子, no one wore穿着 a seat座位 belt.
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当我还小的时候,没人系安全带
15:21
Nowadays如今, no kid孩子 will let you drive驾驶
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现在呢,如果你不系安全带
15:23
if you're not wearing穿着 a seat座位 belt.
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没有哪个孩子会让你开车
15:26
Compare比较 that to the airbag安全气囊 debate辩论 --
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你可以把它跟30年后
15:28
probably大概 about 30 years年份 behind背后.
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关于安全气囊的争论相比较
15:31
All examples例子 of models楷模 changing改变.
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这几个例子里的模型都变了
15:36
What we learn学习 is that changing改变 models楷模 is hard.
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由此我们可以的出结论,模型是很难被改变的
15:39
Models楷模 are hard to dislodge打跑.
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模型是很难被移除的
15:41
If they equal等于 your feelings情怀,
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如果模型跟你的感觉相符
15:43
you don't even know you have a model模型.
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你甚至不知道你有个模型
15:46
And there's another另一个 cognitive认知 bias偏压
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再说另一个认知偏见
15:48
I'll call confirmation确认 bias偏压,
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证实性偏见
15:50
where we tend趋向 to accept接受 data数据
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意思是我们倾向于接受
15:53
that confirms确认 our beliefs信仰
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那些能够支持我们观点的数据
15:55
and reject拒绝 data数据 that contradicts相矛盾 our beliefs信仰.
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而拒绝那些反对的
15:59
So evidence证据 against反对 our model模型,
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所以对于那些与我们的模型相反的证据
16:01
we're likely容易 to ignore忽视, even if it's compelling引人注目.
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我们会忽略掉,即使它们很有说服力
16:04
It has to get very compelling引人注目 before we'll pay工资 attention注意.
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那些证据必须非常非常令人信服,我们才会去关注
16:08
New models楷模 that extend延伸 long periods of time are hard.
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一个时间跨度长的新模型难以让人接受
16:10
Global全球 warming变暖 is a great example.
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比如像全球变暖
16:12
We're terrible可怕
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我们很难接受一个
16:14
at models楷模 that span跨度 80 years年份.
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超过80年的的模型
16:16
We can do to the next下一个 harvest收成.
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我们可以接受一年的
16:18
We can often经常 do until直到 our kids孩子 grow增长 up.
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我们也可以接受让一个小孩长大那么长的时间
16:21
But 80 years年份, we're just not good at.
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但80年还是太难了
16:24
So it's a very hard model模型 to accept接受.
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所以那是个非常难以让人接受的模型
16:27
We can have both models楷模 in our head simultaneously同时,
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我们可以同时拥有对同一件事情的
16:31
right, that kind of problem问题
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两个模型
16:34
where we're holding保持 both beliefs信仰 together一起,
386
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此时,我们拥有同时两种信念
16:37
right, the cognitive认知 dissonance不和谐.
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这种情况也叫认知不协调
16:39
Eventually终于,
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最后
16:41
the new model模型 will replace更换 the old model模型.
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新模型代替了旧模型
16:44
Strong强大 feelings情怀 can create创建 a model模型.
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强烈的感觉可以产生一个模型
16:47
September九月 11th created创建 a security安全 model模型
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911在很多人脑里
16:50
in a lot of people's人们 heads.
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产生了一个安全模型
16:52
Also, personal个人 experiences经验 with crime犯罪 can do it,
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同时,个人的犯罪经历和
16:55
personal个人 health健康 scare,
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一次健康危机 --
16:57
a health健康 scare in the news新闻.
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就是那种在新闻里可以看到的那种 -- 也可以产生模型
16:59
You'll你会 see these called flashbulb镁光灯 events事件
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那些经历在心理学里叫做
17:01
by psychiatrists精神科医生.
397
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闪光灯事件
17:03
They can create创建 a model模型 instantaneously瞬间,
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它们能迅速地产生一个模型
17:06
because they're very emotive感情的.
399
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因为引起了强烈的个人感情
17:09
So in the technological技术性 world世界,
400
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所以在一个技术世界里
17:11
we don't have experience经验
401
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我们没有可以判断模型
17:13
to judge法官 models楷模.
402
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的经历
17:15
And we rely依靠 on others其他. We rely依靠 on proxies代理.
403
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我们依赖其他人,我们依赖于代理人
17:17
I mean, this works作品 as long as it's to correct正确 others其他.
404
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这样是可以的,只要它能够纠正错误就行
17:21
We rely依靠 on government政府 agencies机构
405
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我们依赖政府
17:23
to tell us what pharmaceuticals药品 are safe安全.
406
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来告诉我们哪些药品是安全的
17:28
I flew here yesterday昨天.
407
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我是昨天坐飞机来的
17:30
I didn't check the airplane飞机.
408
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我没检查飞机是否安全
17:32
I relied on some other group
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我依赖其他人
17:34
to determine确定 whether是否 my plane平面 was safe安全 to fly.
410
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去决定我坐的飞机是否安全
17:37
We're here, none没有 of us fear恐惧 the roof屋顶 is going to collapse坍方 on us,
411
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我们坐在这里,没人担心屋顶会塌
17:40
not because we checked检查,
412
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不是因为我们亲自检查过
17:43
but because we're pretty漂亮 sure
413
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而是我们非常确定
17:45
the building建造 codes代码 here are good.
414
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这建筑符合规范
17:48
It's a model模型 we just accept接受
415
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这是一种模型我们只是
17:50
pretty漂亮 much by faith信仰.
416
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因为信念而接受
17:52
And that's okay.
417
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这也没错
17:57
Now, what we want
418
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现在,我们希望的是
17:59
is people to get familiar enough足够
419
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人们能够认识一些
18:01
with better models楷模 --
420
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更好的模型 --
18:03
have it reflected反射的 in their feelings情怀 --
421
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在感觉里显现出来 --
18:05
to allow允许 them to make security安全 trade-offs权衡.
422
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以帮助他们做出更好的权衡取舍
18:09
Now when these go out of whack重打,
423
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当感觉和模型分开的时候
18:11
you have two options选项.
424
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你有两个选择
18:13
One, you can fix固定 people's人们 feelings情怀,
425
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第一,改变人们的感觉
18:15
directly appeal上诉 to feelings情怀.
426
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直接诉诸于感觉
18:17
It's manipulation操作, but it can work.
427
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这是一种操纵,但有效果
18:20
The second第二, more honest诚实 way
428
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第二,更诚实一点的做法
18:22
is to actually其实 fix固定 the model模型.
429
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就是改变模型
18:26
Change更改 happens发生 slowly慢慢地.
430
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改变是很缓慢的
18:28
The smoking抽烟 debate辩论 took 40 years年份,
431
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吸烟的争论持续了40年
18:31
and that was an easy简单 one.
432
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而那还是比较简单的一个
18:34
Some of this stuff东东 is hard.
433
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有一些是非常困难的
18:36
I mean really though虽然,
434
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是真的很困难
18:38
information信息 seems似乎 like our best最好 hope希望.
435
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看起来信息是我们最好的希望
18:40
And I lied说谎.
436
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事实上我之前撒了个谎
18:42
Remember记得 I said feeling感觉, model模型, reality现实;
437
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我之前提到感觉、模型和现实
18:44
I said reality现实 doesn't change更改. It actually其实 does.
438
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我说现实不会改变。事实上它会。
18:47
We live生活 in a technological技术性 world世界;
439
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我们生活在一个技术的世界里
18:49
reality现实 changes变化 all the time.
440
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现实每时每刻都在改变
18:52
So we might威力 have -- for the first time in our species种类 --
441
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所以,可能是我们这个物种里的第一次
18:55
feeling感觉 chases追逐 model模型, model模型 chases追逐 reality现实, reality's现实的 moving移动 --
442
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感觉追赶着模型,模型追赶着现实,而现实则在不断改变
18:58
they might威力 never catch抓住 up.
443
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它们可能永远也追不上
19:02
We don't know.
444
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这点谁知道呢
19:04
But in the long-term长期,
445
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但是就长期来看
19:06
both feeling感觉 and reality现实 are important重要.
446
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感觉和现实是很重要的
19:09
And I want to close with two quick stories故事 to illustrate说明 this.
447
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结束前我想以两个小故事来说明这点
19:12
1982 -- I don't know if people will remember记得 this --
448
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1982年 -- 我不知道人们还记不记得 --
19:14
there was a short epidemic疫情
449
1139000
3000
那时在美国发生了一次
19:17
of Tylenol泰诺 poisonings中毒 in the United联合的 States状态.
450
1142000
2000
时间不长但传播范围广的泰诺中毒事件
19:19
It's a horrific可怕的 story故事. Someone有人 took a bottle瓶子 of Tylenol泰诺,
451
1144000
3000
很可怕。有人拿了一瓶泰诺胶囊,
19:22
put poison in it, closed关闭 it up, put it back on the shelf.
452
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放毒进去,关上盖子,然后又放回货架
19:25
Someone有人 else其他 bought it and died死亡.
453
1150000
2000
七个人买回去吃了然后中毒而死
19:27
This terrified people.
454
1152000
2000
人们很害怕
19:29
There were a couple一对 of copycat山寨 attacks攻击.
455
1154000
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当时还有些模仿此投毒的行为
19:31
There wasn't any real真实 risk风险, but people were scared害怕.
456
1156000
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幸好后者没什么真正的危险,但人们被吓到了
19:34
And this is how
457
1159000
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这是防盗瓶盖产业
19:36
the tamper-proof防篡改 drug药物 industry行业 was invented发明.
458
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得以发展起来的原因
19:38
Those tamper-proof防篡改 caps帽子, that came来了 from this.
459
1163000
2000
那些防盗瓶盖就是这么来的
19:40
It's complete完成 security安全 theater剧院.
460
1165000
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它就是所谓的安全剧场
19:42
As a homework家庭作业 assignment分配, think of 10 ways方法 to get around it.
461
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你们可以想想10种破解防盗瓶盖的方法
19:44
I'll give you one, a syringe注射器.
462
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我先说一个,用注射器
19:47
But it made制作 people feel better.
463
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即使没那么安全,但至少人们感觉更安全了
19:50
It made制作 their feeling感觉 of security安全
464
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它让人们对安全的感觉
19:52
more match比赛 the reality现实.
465
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跟现实更为符合
19:54
Last story故事, a few少数 years年份 ago, a friend朋友 of mine gave birth分娩.
466
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最后一个故事。几年前,我一个朋友要生了
19:57
I visit访问 her in the hospital醫院.
467
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我去医院看她
19:59
It turns out when a baby's宝宝 born天生 now,
468
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发现当一个婴儿出生后
20:01
they put an RFIDRFID bracelet手镯 on the baby宝宝,
469
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他们会给婴儿戴上一个带RFID的手镯
20:03
put a corresponding相应 one on the mother母亲,
470
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然后给母亲也配一个对应的
20:05
so if anyone任何人 other than the mother母亲 takes the baby宝宝 out of the maternity母道 ward病房,
471
1190000
2000
这样,当一个不是母亲的人想把婴儿从产房带走
20:07
an alarm报警 goes off.
472
1192000
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警报就会响
20:09
I said, "Well, that's kind of neat整齐.
473
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我说:“这措施不错。
20:11
I wonder奇迹 how rampant猖獗 baby宝宝 snatching is
474
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我想知道在医院
20:13
out of hospitals医院."
475
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偷盗婴儿的行为有多猖獗。”
20:15
I go home, I look it up.
476
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回到家,我查了一下。
20:17
It basically基本上 never happens发生.
477
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基本上从来没发生过
20:19
But if you think about it,
478
1204000
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但如果你仔细想想
20:21
if you are a hospital醫院,
479
1206000
2000
如果你是医生
20:23
and you need to take a baby宝宝 away from its mother母亲,
480
1208000
2000
你需要给婴儿从母亲身边带走
20:25
out of the room房间 to run some tests测试,
481
1210000
2000
带出房间做点测试
20:27
you better have some good security安全 theater剧院,
482
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你最好有安全剧院
20:29
or she's going to rip安息 your arm off.
483
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不然的话那位母亲会把你的胳膊都拽下来
20:31
(Laughter笑声)
484
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(笑)
20:33
So it's important重要 for us,
485
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所以,安全剧院这个概念对于
20:35
those of us who design设计 security安全,
486
1220000
2000
那些做安全设计的,
20:37
who look at security安全 policy政策,
487
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那些以实际效果来看待
20:40
or even look at public上市 policy政策
488
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安全政策或公共政策的人来说
20:42
in ways方法 that affect影响 security安全.
489
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是非常重要的
20:44
It's not just reality现实; it's feeling感觉 and reality现实.
490
1229000
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它不只是现实,它是感觉和现实
20:47
What's important重要
491
1232000
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重要的是
20:49
is that they be about the same相同.
492
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它们几乎是一样的
20:51
It's important重要 that, if our feelings情怀 match比赛 reality现实,
493
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如果我们的感觉和现实相符
20:53
we make better security安全 trade-offs权衡.
494
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我们就能够做出更好的关于安全的权衡取舍
20:55
Thank you.
495
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谢谢
20:57
(Applause掌声)
496
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Yuli Zhou
Reviewed by Tony Yet

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bruce Schneier - Security expert
Bruce Schneier thinks hard about security -- as a computer security guru, and as a philosopher of the larger notion of making a safer world.

Why you should listen

Bruce Schneier is an internationally renowned security technologist and author. Described by the Economist as a "security guru," he is best known as a refreshingly candid and lucid security critic and commentator. When people want to know how security really works, they turn to Schneier.

His first bestseller, Applied Cryptography, explained how the arcane science of secret codes actually works, and was described by Wired as "the book the National Security Agency wanted never to be published." His book on computer and network security, Secrets and Lies, was called by Fortune "[a] jewel box of little surprises you can actually use." Beyond Fear tackles the problems of security from the small to the large: personal safety, crime, corporate security, national security. His current book, Schneier on Security, offers insight into everything from the risk of identity theft (vastly overrated) to the long-range security threat of unchecked presidential power and the surprisingly simple way to tamper-proof elections.

Schneier publishes a free monthly newsletter, Crypto-Gram, with over 150,000 readers. In its ten years of regular publication, Crypto-Gram has become one of the most widely read forums for free-wheeling discussions, pointed critiques and serious debate about security. As head curmudgeon at the table, Schneier explains, debunks and draws lessons from security stories that make the news.

More profile about the speaker
Bruce Schneier | Speaker | TED.com