ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nick Bostrom - Philosopher
Nick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us?

Why you should listen

Philosopher Nick Bostrom envisioned a future full of human enhancement, nanotechnology and machine intelligence long before they became mainstream concerns. From his famous simulation argument -- which identified some striking implications of rejecting the Matrix-like idea that humans are living in a computer simulation -- to his work on existential risk, Bostrom approaches both the inevitable and the speculative using the tools of philosophy, probability theory, and scientific analysis.

Since 2005, Bostrom has led the Future of Humanity Institute, a research group of mathematicians, philosophers and scientists at Oxford University tasked with investigating the big picture for the human condition and its future. He has been referred to as one of the most important thinkers of our age.

Nick was honored as one of Foreign Policy's 2015 Global Thinkers .

His recent book Superintelligence advances the ominous idea that “the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.”

More profile about the speaker
Nick Bostrom | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2005

Nick Bostrom: A philosophical quest for our biggest problems

尼克·博斯特罗姆:我们的大问题

Filmed:
967,767 views

牛津大学哲学家和超人类主义学家尼克·波斯特洛姆对人类前景进行审视,并提出以下疑问:我们是否应该重新定义人道来解决人类最根本的问题?
- Philosopher
Nick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us? Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:24
I want to talk today今天 about --
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今天我所要讲的是-
00:27
I've been asked to take the long view视图, and I'm going to tell you what
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他们让我谈谈长远的观点-我要告诉你们
00:33
I think are the three biggest最大 problems问题 for humanity人性
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我认为,从长远来看,
00:37
from this long point of view视图.
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人类面临着三大问题。
00:40
Some of these have already已经 been touched感动 upon by other speakers音箱,
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其中有些问题已经被其他讲演者提到了,
00:43
which哪一个 is encouraging鼓舞人心的.
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这是很鼓舞人心的。
00:45
It seems似乎 that there's not just one person
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看起来远不止一个人
00:47
who thinks that these problems问题 are important重要.
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认为这些问题意义重大。
00:49
The first is -- death死亡 is a big problem问题.
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第一——死亡是一个重大的问题。
00:53
If you look at the statistics统计,
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如果你看看统计数据,
00:56
the odds可能性 are not very favorable有利 to us.
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形式对我们来说并不乐观。
00:58
So far, most people who have lived生活 have also died死亡.
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到目前为止,大部分曾经活过的人,都已经死了。
01:02
Roughly大致 90 percent百分 of everybody每个人 who has been alive has died死亡 by now.
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大致来说,所有人类中百分之九十的人目前已经死亡了.
01:06
So the annual全年 death死亡 rate adds增加 up to 150,000 --
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因此,年死亡率总计就是15万——
01:12
sorry, the daily日常 death死亡 rate -- 150,000 people per day,
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对不起,日死亡率——每天15万人,
01:15
which哪一个 is a huge巨大 number by any standard标准.
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以任何标准看,这个数字都是巨大的。
01:18
The annual全年 death死亡 rate, then, becomes 56 million百万.
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那么,年死亡率就变成了5千6百万人。
01:23
If we just look at the single, biggest最大 cause原因 of death死亡 -- aging老化 --
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如果我们只着眼于死亡的最大的单一因素——衰老——
01:29
it accounts账户 for roughly大致 two-thirds三分之二 of all human人的 people who die.
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大约有三分之二的人因此而死。
01:34
That adds增加 up to an annual全年 death死亡 toll收费
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这些每年因衰老而死亡的人数
01:37
of greater更大 than the population人口 of Canada加拿大.
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比加拿大的人口还要多。
01:39
Sometimes有时, we don't see a problem问题
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有时,我们无视于问题之存在,
01:41
because either it's too familiar or it's too big.
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因为要么这个问题太熟悉,要么这个问题太大了。
01:45
Can't see it because it's too big.
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因为问题太大了,所以我们看不见。
01:47
I think death死亡 might威力 be both too familiar and too big
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我认为,死亡对我们来说,既过于熟悉也过于巨大
01:50
for most people to see it as a problem问题.
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因此大多数人都不会把它当做一个问题来看待。
01:53
Once一旦 you think about it, you see this is not statistical统计 points;
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一旦你想一下,你就会发现这并不是统计数字而已。
01:55
these are -- let's see, how far have I talked?
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这些是——让我看看,我讲了有多久了?
01:57
I've talked for three minutes分钟.
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我已经讲了三分钟。
02:00
So that would be, roughly大致, 324 people have died死亡 since以来 I've begun开始 speaking请讲.
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那么,从我开始讲话到现在,有大概324个人已经去世了。
02:07
People like -- it's roughly大致 the population人口 in this room房间 has just died死亡.
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这个人数就像——大概有这个房间里的那么多人刚才去世了。
02:12
Now, the human人的 cost成本 of that is obvious明显,
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死亡给人类带来的损失是很明显的。
02:14
once一旦 you start开始 to think about it -- the suffering痛苦, the loss失利 --
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如果你开始细想——死亡带来的痛苦、损失
02:17
it's also, economically经济, enormously巨大 wasteful浪费.
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从经济上来说,这也是一种巨大的浪费。
02:20
I just look at the information信息, and knowledge知识, and experience经验
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光从信息、知识和经验来看,
02:23
that is lost丢失 due应有 to natural自然 causes原因 of death死亡 in general一般,
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一般而言,它们都因人的自然死亡而消失了,
02:26
and aging老化, in particular特定.
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尤其是因衰老而造成的死亡。
02:28
Suppose假设 we approximated近似 one person with one book?
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假设我们把一个人比作一本书,
02:31
Now, of course课程, this is an underestimation低估.
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当然,这对人来说是低估的。
02:33
A person's人的 lifetime一生 of learning学习 and experience经验
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一个人一生的学识和经验
02:39
is a lot more than you could put into a single book.
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远不能为一本书所容纳。
02:41
But let's suppose假设 we did this.
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但让我们这么假设吧。
02:44
52 million百万 people die of natural自然 causes原因 each year
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每年有五千两百万人因自然原因而死亡
02:49
corresponds对应, then, to 52 million百万 volumes destroyed销毁.
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那么,相应的,五千两百万册书也毁灭了。
02:53
Library图书馆 of Congress国会 holds持有 18 million百万 volumes.
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国会图书馆有一千八百万册藏书。
02:57
We are upset烦乱 about the burning燃烧 of the Library图书馆 of Alexandria亚历山大.
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亚历山大图书馆被烧毁让我们深感惋惜。
03:00
It's one of the great cultural文化 tragedies悲剧
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这是一大文化悲剧
03:02
that we remember记得, even today今天.
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我们直到今天还记忆犹新。
03:06
But this is the equivalent当量 of three Libraries图书馆 of Congress国会 --
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但死亡造成的损失,相当于每年有三座国会图书馆的藏书
03:08
burnt down, forever永远 lost丢失 -- each year.
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灰飞烟灭,永远消亡。
03:11
So that's the first big problem问题.
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因此,这是第一个重大问题。
03:13
And I wish希望 Godspeed一帆风顺 to Aubrey奥布里 de Grey灰色,
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我要祝奥布里·德·格雷(译者:研究永生的学者)
03:16
and other people like him,
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和他的同行们成功,
03:18
to try to do something about this as soon不久 as possible可能.
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祝他们在这个问题上尽早有所进展。
03:22
Existential存在主义 risk风险 -- the second第二 big problem问题.
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存在风险——第二个重大问题。
03:25
Existential存在主义 risk风险 is a threat威胁 to human人的 survival生存, or to the long-term长期 potential潜在 of our species种类.
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存在风险是对人类生存,或对整个人类种群的长远潜能的一种威胁。
03:32
Now, why do I say that this is a big problem问题?
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为什么我会认为这是一个重大问题?
03:34
Well, let's first look at the probability可能性 --
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让我们来看看可能性——
03:38
and this is very, very difficult to estimate估计 --
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这非常难估量——
03:41
but there have been only four studies学习 on this in recent最近 years年份,
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但近年来,这个领域只出现了四篇研究文章。
03:44
which哪一个 is surprising奇怪.
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这很让人吃惊。
03:46
You would think that it would be of some interest利益
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你可能会认为,既然厉害关系如此巨大,
03:49
to try to find out more about this given特定 that the stakes赌注 are so big,
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那么在这个领域做研究一定是有意义的。
03:53
but it's a very neglected被忽视的 area.
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然而,这是一个被人们忽视的领域。
03:55
But there have been four studies学习 --
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但是,已经有了四篇研究——
03:57
one by John约翰 Lesley莱斯利, wrote a book on this.
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其中一篇由约翰·雷斯利所著,为这个问题写了一本书。
03:59
He estimated预计 a probability可能性 that we will fail失败
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据他估计,有50%的可能性
04:01
to survive生存 the current当前 century世纪: 50 percent百分.
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我们会在这个世纪灭亡。
04:04
Similarly同样, the Astronomer天文学家 Royal王室的, whom we heard听说 speak说话 yesterday昨天,
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类似的,皇家天文学家(名号)——我们昨天听过他的演讲——
04:09
also has a 50 percent百分 probability可能性 estimate估计.
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的估算结果也是50%。
04:12
Another另一个 author作者 doesn't give any numerical数字的 estimate估计,
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另外一个作者并没有给出任何数据估算,
04:15
but says the probability可能性 is significant重大 that it will fail失败.
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但他指出,人类灭亡的可能性非常高。
04:18
I wrote a long paper on this.
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我就这个问题写了一篇长篇论文
04:21
I said assigning分配 a less than 20 percent百分 probability可能性 would be a mistake错误
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我在文章里指出,根据现有的证据,
04:25
in light of the current当前 evidence证据 we have.
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任何低于20%的可能性估算都应该是错误的。
04:28
Now, the exact精确 figures人物 here,
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对于这里的具体数字,
04:30
we should take with a big grain粮食 of salt,
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我们不应该全盘相信,
04:32
but there seems似乎 to be a consensus共识 that the risk风险 is substantial大量的.
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但人们似乎对此达成共识,风险的确不小。
04:35
Everybody每个人 who has looked看着 at this and studied研究 it agrees同意.
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每个看过并研究过这方面的人,都会同意。
04:38
Now, if we think about what just reducing减少
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那么,如果我们考虑
04:40
the probability可能性 of human人的 extinction灭绝 by just one percentage百分比 point --
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将人类灭绝的可能性几率只减少一个百分点——
04:45
not very much -- so that's equivalent当量 to 60 million百万 lives生活 saved保存,
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并不是很多——那就相当于拯救了六千万的生命,
04:50
if we just count计数 the currently目前 living活的 people, the current当前 generation.
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而这只是计算现存的人类,当代人口。
04:54
Now one percent百分 of six billion十亿 people is equivalent当量 to 60 million百万.
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那么六十亿人的百分之一相当于六千万。
04:58
So that's a large number.
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这是一个很大的数字。
05:00
If we were to take into account帐户 future未来 generations
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如果我们把未来的人口也算进来
05:03
that will never come into existence存在 if we blow打击 ourselves我们自己 up,
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如果我们把自己毁灭了,未来人口也永不会存在,
05:08
then the figure数字 becomes astronomical天文.
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那么这数字就变成天文数字了。
05:11
If we could eventually终于 colonize拓殖 a chunk of the universe宇宙 --
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如果我们最终可以开拓宇宙的一角为生存地——
05:14
the Virgo处女座 supercluster超星 --
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比如室女座超星系团——
05:16
maybe it will take us 100 million百万 years年份 to get there,
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可能我们需要一亿年才能到达那儿,
05:18
but if we go extinct绝种 we never will.
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但如果我们灭亡了,我们永远也到不了
05:21
Then, even a one percentage百分比 point reduction减少
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那么,即使是减少百分之一
05:24
in the extinction灭绝 risk风险 could be equivalent当量
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的灭绝风险,那将等同于
05:28
to this astronomical天文 number -- 10 to the power功率 of 32.
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这个极为庞大的数字——10的32次方。
05:31
So if you take into account帐户 future未来 generations as much as our own拥有,
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那么,如果你像关心我们自己一样关心我们的后代,
05:35
every一切 other moral道德 imperative势在必行 of philanthropic慈善 cost成本 just becomes irrelevant不相干.
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所有其他基于道义责任的慈善都变得无关紧要。
05:40
The only thing you should focus焦点 on
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你所应该关注的唯一事情
05:42
would be to reduce减少 existential存在 risk风险
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就是减少生存风险
05:44
because even the tiniest最小的 decrease减少 in existential存在 risk风险
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因为即使只减少极少的一点生存风险,
05:48
would just overwhelm压倒 any other benefit效益 you could hope希望 to achieve实现.
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其带来的好处也可以覆盖其它任何你希望获得的利益。
05:52
And even if you just look at the current当前 people,
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另外,如果你仅仅关注现在的人类,
05:54
and ignore忽视 the potential潜在 that would be lost丢失 if we went extinct绝种,
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而忽略那些一旦我们灭绝后可能失去的潜能,
05:59
it should still have a high priority优先.
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减少存在风险也仍旧值得优先考虑。
06:01
Now, let me spend the rest休息 of my time on the third第三 big problem问题,
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现在,让我把余下的时间花在对第三个重大问题的探讨上。
06:06
because it's more subtle微妙 and perhaps也许 difficult to grasp把握.
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因为这个问题更加微妙,也可能难以把握。
06:12
Think about some time in your life --
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试着回忆一下你生命中的某些时刻——
06:16
some people might威力 never have experienced有经验的 it -- but some people,
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有些人可能从未体会过——但有些人
06:19
there are just those moments瞬间 that you have experienced有经验的
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在他们生命的某些时刻
06:22
where life was fantastic奇妙.
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体会到生命的美妙。
06:24
It might威力 have been at the moment时刻 of some great, creative创作的 inspiration灵感
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它可能是当你进入心流体验时
06:31
you might威力 have had when you just entered进入 this flow stage阶段.
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所经历的很棒的,产生创造性灵感的时候。
06:33
Or when you understood了解 something you had never doneDONE before.
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或者是当你弄懂了某件以往从未涉足的事情的时刻。
06:35
Or perhaps也许 in the ecstasy狂喜 of romantic浪漫 love.
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或者是浪漫爱情中那销魂迷醉的时刻。
06:39
Or an aesthetic审美 experience经验 -- a sunset日落 or a great piece of art艺术.
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或者是一种对美感的欣赏——如一次落日,或一幅名画。
06:44
Every一切 once一旦 in a while we have these moments瞬间,
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时不时的,我们便会经历这样的时刻,
06:46
and we realize实现 just how good life can be when it's at its best最好.
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我们意识到,生命最美好的时刻是多么令人陶醉。
06:50
And you wonder奇迹, why can't it be like that all the time?
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然后你就想,为什么生活不能总是那么美好呢?
06:55
You just want to cling依偎 onto this.
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你就是想抓住此刻不放。
06:57
And then, of course课程, it drifts漂移 back into ordinary普通 life and the memory记忆 fades.
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然后呢,当然,生活又回到了常态,美好记忆悄然消退。
07:01
And it's really difficult to recall召回, in a normal正常 frame of mind心神,
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对我们来说,以一颗平常之心是非常难以回想
07:05
just how good life can be at its best最好.
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生活在最精彩的时候是多么的美好,
07:08
Or how bad it can be at its worst最差.
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或在最差劲的时候是多么的糟糕。
07:11
The third第三 big problem问题 is that life isn't usually平时
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第三个重大问题是,生命通常达不到
07:14
as wonderful精彩 as it could be.
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它可能达到的美妙状态。
07:16
I think that's a big, big problem问题.
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我想这是一个非常,非常大的问题。
07:20
It's easy简单 to say what we don't want.
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我们很容易指出出我们不喜欢的东西。
07:23
Here are a number of things that we don't want --
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以下都是我们避之而不及的东西——
07:26
illness疾病, involuntary非自愿 death死亡, unnecessary不必要 suffering痛苦, cruelty残酷,
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疾病、非自愿死亡、不必要的痛苦、残酷、
07:29
stunted发育不良 growth发展, memory记忆 loss失利, ignorance无知, absence缺席 of creativity创造力.
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发育停滞、健忘症、无知,以及缺乏创造力。
07:35
Suppose假设 we fixed固定 these things -- we did something about all of these.
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假设我们解决了这些问题——我们对所有这些都采取些措施。
07:38
We were very successful成功.
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我们对此非常成功。
07:40
We got rid摆脱 of all of these things.
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我们摆脱了所有这些难题。
07:42
We might威力 end结束 up with something like this,
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我们可能会变成这样。
07:45
which哪一个 is -- I mean, it's a heck赫克 of a lot better than that.
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我的意思是,这将比原来的境况要好一百倍,
07:49
But is this really the best最好 we can dream梦想 of?
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但是,这真的是我们能想到的最好结果吗?
07:54
Is this the best最好 we can do?
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这真的是我们所能做的最好程度吗?
07:56
Or is it possible可能 to find something a little bit more inspiring鼓舞人心 to work towards?
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还是有可能找到一些更加鼓舞人心的目标来为之奋斗?
08:02
And if we think about this,
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如果我们这样想,
08:04
I think it's very clear明确 that there are ways方法
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我认为,有一点非常明确,那就是
08:08
in which哪一个 we could change更改 things, not just by eliminating消除 negatives底片,
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如果想改变现状,除了消除负面因素,
08:11
but adding加入 positives阳性.
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还可以增加积极因素。
08:13
On my wish希望 list名单, at least最小, would be:
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至少在我的愿望清单上会有——
08:15
much longer, healthier健康 lives生活, greater更大 subjective主观 well-being福利,
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更长久、更健康的幸福,更美满的康乐安宁,
08:20
enhanced增强 cognitive认知 capacities能力, more knowledge知识 and understanding理解,
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更强的认知能力,更多的知识和领悟力,
08:25
unlimited无限 opportunity机会 for personal个人 growth发展
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超越目前人类生物极限的无限的个人成长机会,
08:27
beyond our current当前 biological生物 limits范围, better relationships关系,
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更好的人际关系,
08:31
an unbounded无界 potential潜在 for spiritual精神, moral道德
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更宽广的精神,道德
08:33
and intellectual知识分子 development发展.
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以及才智方面的发展空间。
08:35
If we want to achieve实现 this, what, in the world世界, would have to change更改?
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如果我们想达到这些目标,世界应如何改变?
08:43
And this is the answer回答 -- we would have to change更改.
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答案是——该改变的是我们。
08:48
Not just the world世界 around us, but we, ourselves我们自己.
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不仅仅改变我们周围的世界,更应该改变我们自己。
08:51
Not just the way we think about the world世界, but the way we are -- our very biology生物学.
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不仅仅改变我们看待世界的方式,还有我们自身存在的方式——我们自身的生物特性。
08:55
Human人的 nature性质 would have to change更改.
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人类本质必须要改变。
08:57
Now, when we think about changing改变 human人的 nature性质,
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那么,当我们考虑改变人类本质时,
08:59
the first thing that comes to mind心神
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首先想到的
09:01
are these human人的 modification修改 technologies技术 --
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便是那些人类改造技术——
09:05
growth发展 hormone激素 therapy治疗, cosmetic化妆品 surgery手术,
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荷尔蒙生长疗法,整容手术,
09:07
stimulants兴奋剂 like Ritalin利他林, Adderall药物Adderall, anti-depressants抗抑郁药,
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如利他林,安非他命缓释剂之类的兴奋剂,抗抑郁剂,
09:10
anabolic合成代谢的 steroids类固醇, artificial人造 hearts心中.
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合成代谢类固醇,人造心脏。
09:12
It's a pretty漂亮 pathetic可怜 list名单.
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这是一张可悲的清单。
09:15
They do great things for a few少数 people
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这些技术极大地帮助了一部分人,
09:17
who suffer遭受 from some specific具体 condition条件,
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这些人患有某些特定的病症。
09:19
but for most people, they don't really transform转变
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但对与大多数人来说,它们并不能真正改变
09:24
what it is to be human人的.
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人的本质。
09:26
And they also all seem似乎 a little bit --
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并且,它们看起来也有点——
09:28
most people have this instinct直觉 that, well, sure,
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大多数人都会本能地认为,
09:31
there needs需求 to be anti-depressants抗抑郁药 for the really depressed郁闷 people.
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虽然抗抑郁剂对严重抑郁的人来说确实是必须的,
09:33
But there's a kind of queasiness恶心
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但这里面总有一点让人不舒服的成分,
09:35
that these are unnatural不自然 in some way.
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因为在某种程度上说,这毕竟是很不自然的。
09:38
It's worth价值 recalling回顾 that there are a lot of other
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值得一提的是,有许多其他的
09:40
modification修改 technologies技术 and enhancement增强 technologies技术 that we use.
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改造技术和改善技术供我们使用。
09:43
We have skin皮肤 enhancements增强, clothing服装.
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我们有改善皮肤的产品,服装。
09:47
As far as I can see, all of you are users用户 of this
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据我的观察,你们所有人都是
09:51
enhancement增强 technology技术 in this room房间, so that's a great thing.
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这改善技术的使用者,所以这是个好东西。
09:56
Mood心情 modifiers修饰符 have been used from time immemorial太古 --
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自古以来,情绪改善剂就一直为人们所使用——
09:59
caffeine咖啡因, alcohol, nicotine尼古丁, immune免疫的 system系统 enhancement增强,
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咖啡因、酒精、尼古丁、免疫系统增强剂、
10:04
vision视力 enhancement增强, anesthetics麻醉剂 --
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视力增强品、麻醉剂。
10:06
we take that very much for granted理所当然,
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我们通常认为这些是理所当然的,没什么稀奇,
10:08
but just think about how great progress进展 that is --
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但想想看这是多么伟大的进步——
10:12
like, having an operation手术 before anesthetics麻醉剂 was not fun开玩笑.
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比如,不实施麻醉而进行手术可不是好玩的。
10:16
Contraceptives避孕药, cosmetics化妆品 and brain reprogramming重新编程 techniques技术 --
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避孕药、美容用品和大脑重新编程技术——
10:22
that sounds声音 ominous不祥的,
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听起来并不像什么好事。
10:24
but the distinction分别 between之间 what is a technology技术 --
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但技术——典型的例子就是小装置,
10:28
a gadget小工具 would be the archetype原型 --
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以及其他改变和重塑人类本质的方法,
10:30
and other ways方法 of changing改变 and rewriting重写 human人的 nature性质 is quite相当 subtle微妙.
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这两者的差别很微妙。
10:34
So if you think about what it means手段 to learn学习 arithmetic算术 or to learn学习 to read,
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因此,如果你思考学习算术和阅读意义何在,
10:38
you're actually其实, literally按照字面 rewriting重写 your own拥有 brain.
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那实际上你就是在重写你自己的大脑。
10:41
You're changing改变 the microstructure微观结构 of your brain as you go along沿.
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你在学习的过程中,也正在改变大脑的微型结构。
10:45
So in a broad广阔 sense, we don't need to think about technology技术
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所以,广义而言,我们不必认为技术
10:48
as only little gadgets小工具, like these things here,
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只是一些小装置,如上面列举的那些。
10:50
but even institutions机构 and techniques技术,
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还应包括甚至像制度,技能,
10:54
psychological心理 methods方法 and so forth向前.
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心理学方法等等。
10:56
Forms形式 of organization组织 can have a profound深刻 impact碰撞 on human人的 nature性质.
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组织机构的不同形式可对人类本质产生深远影响。
11:01
Looking ahead, there is a range范围 of technologies技术
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遥望未来,一系列技术
11:03
that are almost几乎 certain某些 to be developed发达 sooner or later后来.
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迟早会被研发出来。
11:06
We are very ignorant愚昧 about what the time scale规模 for these things are,
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虽然我们对这些技术何时面世一无所知,
11:10
but they all are consistent一贯 with everything we know
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但它们必然与我们所知的一切知识相一致,
11:12
about physical物理 laws法律, laws法律 of chemistry化学, etc等等.
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包括物理定律、化学定律等等。
11:16
It's possible可能 to assume承担,
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我们可以假定,
11:18
setting设置 aside在旁边 a possibility可能性 of catastrophe灾难,
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排除人类遭受大灾难的可能性,
11:21
that sooner or later后来 we will develop发展 all of these.
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迟早我们都会发展出所有这些技术。
11:24
And even just a couple一对 of these would be enough足够
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而且,仅仅这其中的几项就足够
11:27
to transform转变 the human人的 condition条件.
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改变人类的处境。
11:29
So let's look at some of the dimensions尺寸 of human人的 nature性质
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那么,让我们看看人类本质中哪些部分
11:34
that seem似乎 to leave离开 room房间 for improvement起色.
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是有进步空间的。
11:37
Health健康 span跨度 is a big and urgent紧急 thing,
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寿命长短是一个巨大而紧迫的问题,
11:39
because if you're not alive,
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因为如果你死了,
11:41
then all the other things will be to little avail.
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那么所有其他事情都一无所用了。
11:44
Intellectual知识分子 capacity容量 -- let's take that box,
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智力——看那个方框,
11:46
which哪一个 falls下降 into a lot of different不同 sub-categories子类:
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它可以分为许多不同的子目录——
11:51
memory记忆, concentration浓度, mental心理 energy能源, intelligence情报, empathy同情.
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记忆力,注意力,精神能量,理解力,情感共鸣。
11:54
These are really great things.
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这些都是非常美妙的东西。
11:56
Part部分 of the reason原因 why we value these traits性状
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我们之所以重视这些特质,一方面是因为
11:58
is that they make us better at competing竞争 with other people --
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它们能令我们在与他人的竞争中处于更有利的位置,
12:02
they're positional位置 goods产品.
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所以它们是地位商品。
12:04
But part部分 of the reason原因 --
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但另一方面的原因——
12:06
and that's the reason原因 why we have ethical合乎道德的 ground地面 for pursuing追求 these --
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即从人类的本质上看,它们也是很有价值的,
12:10
is that they're also intrinsically本质 valuable有价值.
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这也是为什么我们拥有追求这些特质的道德基础。
12:13
It's just better to be able能够 to understand理解 more of the world世界 around you
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去理解你周围的世界和人
12:17
and the people that you are communicating通信 with,
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以及记住所学的知识,
12:19
and to remember记得 what you have learned学到了.
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能让你变得更好。
12:23
Modalities模式 and special特别 faculties各系.
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不同的模式和特殊能力.
12:25
Now, the human人的 mind心神 is not a single unitary information信息 processor处理器,
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人类的思维并不是一个单一的信息处理器,
12:30
but it has a lot of different不同, special特别, evolved进化 modules模块
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相反,它拥有许多不同的、特殊的、已进化的模块,
12:34
that do specific具体 things for us.
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这些模块各司其职,为我们服务。
12:36
If you think about what we normally一般 take as giving life a lot of its meaning含义 --
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想一下那些通常我们认为赋予生活许多意义的事物——
12:40
music音乐, humor幽默, eroticism性欲亢进, spirituality灵性, aesthetics美学,
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音乐、幽默、性爱、灵性、美学
12:44
nurturing培育 and caring爱心, gossip八卦, chatting聊天的 with people --
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养育和关心、八卦、与他人聊天。
12:49
all of these, very likely容易, are enabled启用 by a special特别 circuitry电路
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所有的这些,都类似的由一个特殊的
12:53
that we humans人类 have,
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每个人都具备的电路所启动,
12:55
but that you could have another另一个 intelligent智能 life form形成 that lacks缺乏 these.
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但很可能,另外一种智慧生命形态却没有这些装置。
12:58
We're just lucky幸运 that we have the requisite必要 neural神经 machinery机械
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我们只是幸运地拥有了这种必备的神经装置
13:01
to process处理 music音乐 and to appreciate欣赏 it and enjoy请享用 it.
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来处理音乐,欣赏它,并从中得到乐趣。
13:05
All of these would enable启用, in principle原理 -- be amenable适合 to enhancement增强.
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所有的这些,从原则上说,都可以以某些方式改进。
13:08
Some people have a better musical音乐 ability能力
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有些人拥有比他人优秀的音乐能力
13:10
and ability能力 to appreciate欣赏 music音乐 than others其他 have.
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及更好的音乐欣赏能力。
13:12
It's also interesting有趣 to think about what other things are --
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如果想想其它事物的情况,那会很有意思
13:15
so if these all enabled启用 great values,
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那么,如果这些事物都能带来宝贵的价值,
13:19
why should we think that evolution演化 has happened发生 to provide提供 us
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为什么我们要认为,这些模式,
13:22
with all the modalities模式 we would need to engage从事
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这些我们要用来与其他可能存在的价值体系来沟通的模式,
13:25
with other values that there might威力 be?
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是由进化凑巧提供的呢?
13:27
Imagine想像 a species种类
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假设有这样一个物种
13:29
that just didn't have this neural神经 machinery机械 for processing处理 music音乐.
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它们刚好没有能够处理音乐的神经装置。
13:33
And they would just stare at us with bafflement困惑
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当我们花时间聆听一曲美妙的演奏时,
13:36
when we spend time listening to a beautiful美丽 performance性能,
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就像我们刚听到的那支,
13:40
like the one we just heard听说 -- because of people making制造 stupid movements运动,
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它们只能迷惑的盯着我们,因为觉得人们在做愚蠢的举动。
13:42
and they would be really irritated恼怒的 and wouldn't不会 see what we were up to.
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并且它们会变得很烦躁,不知道我们到底在干什么。
13:45
But maybe they have another另一个 faculty学院, something else其他
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但是,它们可能具有另外一种能力,
13:48
that would seem似乎 equally一样 irrational不合理的 to us,
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一种同样对我们来说毫无意义的东西,
13:51
but they actually其实 tap龙头 into some great possible可能 value there.
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但它们的确会在这方面开发出一些美好的可能的价值。
13:54
But we are just literally按照字面 deaf to that kind of value.
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但我们对那种价值就是充耳不闻。
13:58
So we could think of adding加入 on different不同,
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因此,我们可以考虑增加不同的
14:00
new sensory感觉的 capacities能力 and mental心理 faculties各系.
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新式的感官机能和精神能力。
14:04
Bodily身体 functionality功能 and morphology形态学 and affective情感 self-control自我控制.
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身体功能、形态以及情感自我控制。
14:09
Greater subjective主观 well-being福利.
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更高层次的主观幸福。
14:11
Be able能够 to switch开关 between之间 relaxation松弛 and activity活动 --
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能够在放松和活动之间转换
14:14
being存在 able能够 to go slow when you need to do that, and to speed速度 up.
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能够根据需要,或放慢速度或加快步伐。
14:18
Able能够 to switch开关 back and forth向前 more easily容易
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能够进退更加自如
14:20
would be a neat整齐 thing to be able能够 to do --
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是件很棒的事,
14:22
easier更轻松 to achieve实现 the flow state,
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它可以让我们更加容易进入心流状态,
14:24
when you're totally完全 immersed沉浸 in something you are doing.
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即一种完全沉浸于所做之事时的状态。
14:28
Conscientiousness责任心 and sympathy同情.
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责任心和同情心。
14:30
The ability能力 to -- it's another另一个 interesting有趣 application应用
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这另一种有趣的能力
14:33
that would have large social社会 ramification分枝, perhaps也许.
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会带来巨大的社会分歧问题。
14:36
If you could actually其实 choose选择 to preserve保留 your romantic浪漫 attachments附件 to one person,
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如果你真的能够保存你对另一个人的浪漫爱恋,
14:42
undiminished不减 through通过 time,
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不受时光侵蚀,
14:44
so that wouldn't不会 have to -- love would never have to fade褪色 if you didn't want it to.
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那么,爱情就会随你心意,永葆灿烂。
14:49
That's probably大概 not all that difficult.
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这也许并不是太难做到的事情。
14:52
It might威力 just be a simple简单 hormone激素 or something that could do this.
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可能只需要一种普通激素或其它什么材料。
14:57
It's been doneDONE in voles田鼠.
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人们在田鼠身上做过这种实验。
15:01
You can engineer工程师 a prairie草原 vole田鼠 to become成为 monogamous一夫一妻制
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本性上是一雄多雌制的草原田鼠,经过改造后,
15:04
when it's naturally自然 polygamous一夫多妻制.
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可变为一雄一雌制。
15:06
It's just a single gene基因.
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只是单一基因的转变
15:08
Might威力 be more complicated复杂 in humans人类, but perhaps也许 not that much.
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对于人类这可能更加复杂,但也许并不那么麻烦。
15:10
This is the last picture图片 that I want to --
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这是我想讨论的最后一张图片
15:13
now we've我们已经 got to use the laser激光 pointer指针.
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现在我们要用镭射指针了。
15:16
A possible可能 mode模式 of being存在 here would be a way of life --
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一种可能存在的模式,是一种生活的方式
15:19
a way of being存在, experiencing经历, thinking思维, seeing眼看,
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一种存在、经历、思考、观察、
15:23
interacting互动 with the world世界.
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及与世界互动的方式。
15:25
Down here in this little corner, here, we have the little sub-space亚空间
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在下面这里的小角落里,我们可以看到这个子空间
15:30
of this larger space空间 that is accessible无障碍 to human人的 beings众生 --
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存在于这片较大的、属于我们
15:34
beings众生 with our biological生物 capacities能力.
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这种具有人类能力的生物可及的空间。
15:37
It's a part部分 of the space空间 that's accessible无障碍 to animals动物;
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这空间属于更大的动物可及空间的一部分——
15:40
since以来 we are animals动物, we are a subset子集 of that.
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因为我们也是动物,所以我们属于动物的分支。
15:43
And then you can imagine想像 some enhancements增强 of human人的 capacities能力.
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那么我们可以想象对人类的能力进行一些改善。
15:47
There would be different不同 modes模式 of being存在 you could experience经验
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你可能可以体验不同的存在模式,
15:50
if you were able能够 to stay alive for, say, 200 years年份.
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假设你能活到200岁吧。
15:53
Then you could live生活 sorts排序 of lives生活 and accumulate积累 wisdoms智慧
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那么你就可以体验不同的生活并积累智慧,
15:57
that are just not possible可能 for humans人类 as we currently目前 are.
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而以我们现阶段的人类形态,我们是无法做到的。
16:00
So then, you move移动 off to this larger sphere领域 of "human人的 +,"
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那么,然后我们迈步来到这片更大的人类空间,
16:04
and you could continue继续 that process处理 and eventually终于
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我们不断地前进,
16:07
explore探索 a lot of this larger space空间 of possible可能 modes模式 of being存在.
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最终,在这片更大的空间,我们可以探索许多可能的生存方式。
16:11
Now, why is that a good thing to do?
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那么,为什么这么做有益呢?
16:13
Well, we know already已经 that in this little human人的 circle there,
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我们已经知道,在这片小小的人类空间中,
16:17
there are these enormously巨大 wonderful精彩 and worthwhile合算 modes模式 of being存在 --
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有极多美妙和宝贵的生存模式
16:21
human人的 life at its best最好 is wonderful精彩.
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人类生活的最高境界是美好的。
16:24
We have no reason原因 to believe that within this much, much larger space空间
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我们没有理由不相信,在这片更大的空间中
16:29
there would not also be extremely非常 worthwhile合算 modes模式 of being存在,
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会存在更多极其宝贵的生存方式。
16:33
perhaps也许 ones那些 that would be way beyond our wildest最疯狂 ability能力
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它们可能大大超越我们智慧的极限,
16:39
even to imagine想像 or dream梦想 about.
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我们甚至做梦也无法想象得到。
16:41
And so, to fix固定 this third第三 problem问题,
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因此,要解决这第三个问题
16:43
I think we need -- slowly慢慢地, carefully小心, with ethical合乎道德的 wisdom智慧 and constraint约束 --
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我认为我们需要缓慢地,仔细地,带着道德智慧和自制力
16:49
develop发展 the means手段 that enable启用 us to go out in this larger space空间 and explore探索 it
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来发展一些方式让我们能够走进并探索这片更宽广的空间。
16:54
and find the great values that might威力 hide隐藏 there.
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并且找到那里可能隐藏着的巨大价值。
16:56
Thanks谢谢.
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谢谢。
Translated by Yujian Li
Reviewed by Zhu Jie

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nick Bostrom - Philosopher
Nick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us?

Why you should listen

Philosopher Nick Bostrom envisioned a future full of human enhancement, nanotechnology and machine intelligence long before they became mainstream concerns. From his famous simulation argument -- which identified some striking implications of rejecting the Matrix-like idea that humans are living in a computer simulation -- to his work on existential risk, Bostrom approaches both the inevitable and the speculative using the tools of philosophy, probability theory, and scientific analysis.

Since 2005, Bostrom has led the Future of Humanity Institute, a research group of mathematicians, philosophers and scientists at Oxford University tasked with investigating the big picture for the human condition and its future. He has been referred to as one of the most important thinkers of our age.

Nick was honored as one of Foreign Policy's 2015 Global Thinkers .

His recent book Superintelligence advances the ominous idea that “the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.”

More profile about the speaker
Nick Bostrom | Speaker | TED.com