TEDSummit 2019
Rose M. Mutiso: How to bring affordable, sustainable electricity to Africa
萝丝·M·穆提索: 如何为非洲带来可负担的、可持续的电力
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能源贫困意味着缺乏获得电力和其它基本能源服务的途径。在撒哈拉以南非洲，近三分之二的居民受到能源贫困的影响。萝丝·M·穆提索（Rose M. Mutiso）说，随着这个地区的人口继续增长，构筑随着人口一同发展的新型能源系统的需求也更加迫切。在这次大胆的演讲中，她探讨了由太阳能、风能、地热能与现代化电网等技术均衡糅合成的方案，将如何为非洲开拓高能源的未来——提供可靠的电力、创造工作岗位、增加收入。
Rose M. Mutiso - Energy scientist
As the Research Director of the Energy for Growth Hub, Rose M. Mutiso works with a global network of experts finding solutions for energy deficits across Africa and Asia. She is also cofounder of the Mawazo Institute, helping African women to become scholars and thought leaders. Full bio
As the Research Director of the Energy for Growth Hub, Rose M. Mutiso works with a global network of experts finding solutions for energy deficits across Africa and Asia. She is also cofounder of the Mawazo Institute, helping African women to become scholars and thought leaders. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So right now, nearly
one billion people globally
one billion people globally
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如今全球有近 10 亿人
00:17
don't have access
to electricity in their homes.
to electricity in their homes.
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家中缺乏电力供应。
00:19
And in sub-Saharan Africa,
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而在撒哈拉以南非洲，
00:21
more than half of the population
remain in the dark.
remain in the dark.
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超过半数的人口仍生活在黑暗之中。
00:25
So you probably all know
this image from NASA.
this image from NASA.
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你们或许都见过 NASA 的这张照片。
00:28
There's a name for this darkness.
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这片黑暗有一个名字，
00:30
It's called "energy poverty,"
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叫做“能源贫困”，
00:31
and it has massive implications
for economic development
for economic development
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它对经济发展与社会福祉
有深远的影响。
00:35
and social well-being.
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撒哈拉以南非洲的能源贫困问题
有一点十分独特——
有一点十分独特——
00:36
One unique aspect of the energy
poverty problem in sub-Saharan Africa --
poverty problem in sub-Saharan Africa --
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00:40
and by the way, in this talk
when I "energy," I mean "electricity" --
when I "energy," I mean "electricity" --
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另外说明一下，在本次演讲中
我所说的“能源”指的是“电力”——
我所说的“能源”指的是“电力”——
00:44
one thing that's unique about it is
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关于能源贫困问题的
一个独特方面是，
一个独特方面是，
00:46
there isn't much legacy
infrastructure already in place
infrastructure already in place
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这个地区的很多国家
缺少已经建好
缺少已经建好
的遗留基础设施。
00:48
in many countries of the region.
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00:51
So, for example, according to 2015 data,
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举个例子，根据 2015 年的数据，
00:54
the total installed electricity capacity
in sub-Saharan Africa
in sub-Saharan Africa
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撒哈拉以南非洲的总装机容量
00:57
is only about 100 gigawatts.
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只有约 100 吉瓦（GW），
01:00
That's similar to that of the UK.
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与英国的总装机容量差不多。
01:02
So this actually presents
a unique opportunity
a unique opportunity
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这其实提供了一个独特的机会，
01:05
to build an energy system
in the 21st century
in the 21st century
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让我们能够在21世纪
几乎从零开始
几乎从零开始
01:08
almost from scratch.
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构建一个能源系统。
01:10
The question is: How do you do that?
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问题在于：怎样才能达成这个目标呢？
01:13
We could look back to the past
and replicate the ways
and replicate the ways
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我们可以回首过去，
效仿以前的做法，
效仿以前的做法，
这些办法曾经将稳定、廉价的电力
01:16
in which we've managed to bring
stable, affordable electricity
stable, affordable electricity
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01:19
to a big part of the world's population.
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带给世界上大多数人口。
01:22
But we all know that that has
some well-known terrible side effects,
some well-known terrible side effects,
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但我们都知道，过去的做法
有一些众所周知的可怕的副作用，
有一些众所周知的可怕的副作用，
01:25
such as pollution and climate change,
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比如环境污染和气候变化，
01:28
in addition to being
costly and inefficient.
costly and inefficient.
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以及高昂的成本与低下的效率。
01:30
With Africa's population set to quadruple
by the end of the century,
by the end of the century,
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随着非洲的人口预计
在本世纪末增加四倍，
在本世纪末增加四倍，
01:34
this is not a theoretical question.
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我们面对的并非
只是理论上的问题。
只是理论上的问题。
01:36
Africa needs a lot of energy,
and it needs it fast,
and it needs it fast,
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非洲需要大量能源，
这个需求迫在眉睫，
这个需求迫在眉睫，
01:39
because its population is booming
and its economy needs to develop.
and its economy needs to develop.
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因为非洲的人口正在激增，
非洲的经济需要发展。
非洲的经济需要发展。
01:44
So for most countries,
the general trajectory of electrification
the general trajectory of electrification
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对大部分国家来说，
电气化的一般轨迹
电气化的一般轨迹
是这样的：
01:47
has been as follows.
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01:49
First, large-scale
grid infrastructure is put in place,
grid infrastructure is put in place,
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首先，铺设好大型电网基础设施，
01:52
usually with significant
public investment.
public investment.
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这一般需要大量公共投资。
01:54
That infrastructure then powers
productive centers,
productive centers,
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那些基础设施随后
为生产中心供能，
为生产中心供能，
01:57
such as factories,
agricultural mechanization,
agricultural mechanization,
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比如工厂、机械化农业、
商业企业等等。
02:00
commercial enterprises and the like.
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这得以刺激经济增长，
02:03
And this then stimulates economic growth,
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创造就业，提高收入，
02:05
creating jobs, raising incomes
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建立起一个能
02:08
and producing a virtuous cycle
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帮助更多人
购置电器的良性循环，
购置电器的良性循环，
02:09
that helps more people
afford more appliances,
afford more appliances,
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从而创造居民对电力的需求。
02:12
which then creates residential
demand for electricity.
demand for electricity.
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但在撒哈拉以南非洲，
尽管能源项目开展了数十年，
尽管能源项目开展了数十年，
02:15
But in sub-Saharan Africa,
despite decades of energy projects,
despite decades of energy projects,
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我们并没有观察到这些效益。
02:19
we haven't really seen these benefits.
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02:22
The energy projects have often
been characterized by waste,
been characterized by waste,
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这些能源项目常常意味着污染、
腐败、效率低下；
02:25
corruption and inefficiency;
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02:27
our rural electrification
rates are really low,
rates are really low,
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我们的农村电气化普及率非常低，
城市的电气化普及率
也有提升的空间；
也有提升的空间；
02:30
and our urban rates could be better;
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我们的电力可靠性很糟糕；
02:32
the reliability of
our electricity is terrible;
our electricity is terrible;
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我们的电费高居全世界的榜首。
02:36
and we have some of the highest
electricity prices in the whole world.
electricity prices in the whole world.
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02:39
And on top of all of this,
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在此之上，
我们如今正在直面日渐严重
的气候灾难带来的影响。
的气候灾难带来的影响。
02:41
we are now facing the impacts of
the growing climate catastrophe head-on.
the growing climate catastrophe head-on.
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非洲需要寻求一条不同的道路。
02:46
So Africa will need
to find a different path.
to find a different path.
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而事实证明，我们现在正在见证
02:49
And, as it turns out,
we are now witnessing
we are now witnessing
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非洲能源市场中
一些激动人心的变革。
一些激动人心的变革。
02:51
some pretty exciting disruption
in the African energy space.
in the African energy space.
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02:55
This new path is called off-grid solar,
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这条崭新的道路叫做“离网太阳能”，
它的诞生结合了廉价太阳能板，
02:58
and it's enabled by cheap solar panels,
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LED 和电池科技的发展，
03:00
advances in LED and battery technology,
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03:02
and combined with
innovative business models.
innovative business models.
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以及创新性的商业模型。
这些离网太阳能产品多种多样，
从简单的一盏灯，
从简单的一盏灯，
03:05
So these off-grid solar products
typically range from a single light
typically range from a single light
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到能够给手机充电、
03:09
to home system kits
that can charge phones,
that can charge phones,
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给电视供能、
03:12
power a television
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让电扇运转的居家系统组件。
03:14
or run a fan.
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我想强调的是：
03:15
I want to be clear:
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03:16
off-grid solar is a big deal in Africa.
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离网太阳能在非洲非常重要。
我在这个领域工作多年，
03:19
I have worked in the sector for years,
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03:21
and these products are enabling us
to extend basic energy services
to extend basic energy services
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而这些产品能让我们
把基本的能源服务
把基本的能源服务
送到世界上最为贫穷的人们手中，
03:25
to some of the world's poorest,
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提升了他们的生活质量。
03:26
raising their quality of life.
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这是件很好、很重要的事情。
03:28
This is a very good
and a very important thing.
and a very important thing.
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但是，离网太阳能并不能解决
非洲能源贫困的问题。
非洲能源贫困的问题。
03:31
However, off-grid solar will not solve
energy poverty in Africa,
energy poverty in Africa,
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就这一点来说，
03:36
and for that matter,
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自上而下、将每一个未通电的家庭
连接到电网上的尝试，
连接到电网上的尝试，
03:37
neither will a top-down effort
to connect every unserved household
to connect every unserved household
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也不能解决这个问题。
03:40
to the grid.
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我并不想老调重谈地
再议关于“入网还是离网”
再议关于“入网还是离网”
03:42
See, I'm not here to rehash
that played-out "on-versus-off-grid"
that played-out "on-versus-off-grid"
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或者“老技术还是新技术”的争论。
03:46
or "old-versus-new" debate.
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03:48
Instead,
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反之，
我相信，我们之所以
无法掌控并真正解决
无法掌控并真正解决
03:49
I believe that our inability
to grapple with and truly address
to grapple with and truly address
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非洲的资源贫困问题，
03:53
energy poverty in Africa
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其主要原因有三点。
03:54
stems from three main sources.
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第一，我们对能源贫困是什么，
以及其扎根之深度
以及其扎根之深度
03:56
First, we don't really have
a clear understanding
a clear understanding
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并没有一个清楚的认知。
03:59
of what energy poverty is,
or how deep it goes.
or how deep it goes.
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04:03
Second, we are avoiding
complex systemic issues
complex systemic issues
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第二，我们在逃避
复杂的体系上的问题，
复杂的体系上的问题，
而倾向于快速的权宜之计。
04:05
and prefer quick fixes.
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第三，我们在误导
对于气候变化的关注。
对于气候变化的关注。
04:07
And third, we are misdirecting
concerns about climate change.
concerns about climate change.
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这三个错误相结合，
导致我们对能源的未来
导致我们对能源的未来
04:11
Combined, these three mistakes are leading
us to impose a Western debate
us to impose a Western debate
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施加了西式的辩论，
04:15
on the future of energy
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04:16
and falling back on paternalistic
attitudes towards Africa.
attitudes towards Africa.
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重蹈了对非洲家长式态度的覆辙。
那么，请让我试图理清这三个问题。
04:20
So let me try and unpack
these three questions.
these three questions.
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首先，能源贫困到底是什么？
04:22
First, what exactly is energy poverty?
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能源贫困的主要针对性指标
04:25
The main energy poverty targeted indicator
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记载于联合国的第七个
可持续发展目标，
可持续发展目标，
04:27
is enshrined in the UN's Seventh
Sustainable Development Goal,
Sustainable Development Goal,
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即 SDG 7 之中。
04:30
or SDG 7.
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这个目标呼吁，到 2030 年，
04:31
It calls for 100 percent
of the world's population
of the world's population
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确保世界上所有人
都能获得电力。
都能获得电力。
04:34
to have access to electricity
by the year 2030.
by the year 2030.
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然而，这个二元化的门槛
04:37
This binary threshold, however,
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04:39
ignores the quality, reliability
or utility of the power,
or utility of the power,
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忽略了能源的质量、
可靠性和效用，
可靠性和效用，
不过目前我们正在研发能够
04:43
though indicators
are currently being developed
are currently being developed
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尝试捕捉这些要点的指标。
04:45
that will try and capture these things.
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但是，一家住户何时能被视作“通电”
04:47
However, the question of when
a household is considered "connected"
a household is considered "connected"
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的评判标准并不明确。
04:51
is not quite clear-cut.
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举个例子，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪
04:53
So, for example, last year
the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi
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在去年宣布，印度境内
全部村庄都通了电，
全部村庄都通了电，
04:56
declared all of the villages
in India electrified,
in India electrified,
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而电气化的标准是
04:59
the criteria for electrification being
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05:01
a transformer in every village
plus its public centers
plus its public centers
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每个村庄配备一座变电站，
加上它的公共中心，
加上它的公共中心，
05:04
and 10 percent -- 10 percent --
of its households connected.
of its households connected.
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和百分之十——没错，
百分之十——的居民能够通电。
百分之十——的居民能够通电。
与此同时，
05:09
Meanwhile,
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负责跟踪 SDG 7 进度的国际能源署
05:10
the International Energy Agency,
which tracks progress against SDG 7,
which tracks progress against SDG 7,
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将能源获取的标准定义为
每人每年 50 度电。
每人每年 50 度电。
05:15
defines energy access as
50 kilowatt hours per person per year.
50 kilowatt hours per person per year.
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50 度电足够点亮几盏灯泡，
给一台手机充电，
给一台手机充电，
05:20
That's enough to power
some light bulbs and charge a phone,
some light bulbs and charge a phone,
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大概每天也能让
低功耗电视或者风扇运行几个小时。
低功耗电视或者风扇运行几个小时。
05:24
perhaps run a low-watt TV or fan
for a few hours a day.
for a few hours a day.
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提供入门级别的电力获取
是重要的第一步，
是重要的第一步，
05:28
Now, providing entry-level access
is an important first step,
is an important first step,
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但是我们还是不要
过于美化这种状况。
过于美化这种状况。
05:33
but let's not romanticize the situation.
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05:35
By any standard, a few lights
and not much else
and not much else
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无论以何种标准来看，
如果只能点亮几盏灯，
如果只能点亮几盏灯，
05:39
is still living in energy poverty.
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仍然相当于生活在能源贫困之中。
05:41
And what's more,
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更有甚者，
05:43
these energy poverty
indicators and targets
indicators and targets
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这些能源贫困的指标与目标
05:46
cover only residential use.
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涵盖的仅仅是居民用电。
然而，居家用电仅占世界耗电总量
05:48
And yet, households account
for just about one quarter
for just about one quarter
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的四分之一。
05:51
of the world's electricity consumption.
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这是因为我们大部分的电力
都用在工业与商贸上。
都用在工业与商贸上。
05:53
That's because most of our power
is used in industries and for commerce.
is used in industries and for commerce.
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这也引出了我的主要论点：
05:57
Which brings me to my main point:
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国家想要脱离贫困，
不能没有能驱动各个生产中心
不能没有能驱动各个生产中心
06:00
countries cannot grow out of poverty
without access to abundant,
without access to abundant,
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的丰富的、廉价的、可靠的电力，
06:03
affordable and reliable electricity
to power these productive centers,
to power these productive centers,
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我将其称为“发展用能源”。
06:08
or what I call "Energy for Growth."
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从这幅图表可以看出，
06:10
As you can see from this graph,
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根本没有所谓的
低能耗、高收入国家。
低能耗、高收入国家。
06:12
there's simply no such thing
as a low-energy, high-income country.
as a low-energy, high-income country.
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这种国家并不存在。
06:15
It doesn't exist.
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然而，世界上有 30 亿人口
06:17
And yet, three billion people in the world
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目前居住的国家缺乏
可靠的、廉价的电力——
可靠的、廉价的电力——
06:19
currently live in countries without
reliable, affordable electricity --
reliable, affordable electricity --
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他们不仅无法为家里供电，
也无法为工厂，
也无法为工厂，
06:23
not just to power their homes
but also their factories,
but also their factories,
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办公楼，数据中心，
以及其他经济活动
以及其他经济活动
06:26
their office buildings, their data centers
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提供电力支持。
06:29
and other economic activities.
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06:31
Merely electrifying households
and microenterprises
and microenterprises
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仅仅为家庭和
微型企业供电根本无法解决
微型企业供电根本无法解决
这个更深层的能源贫困问题。
06:34
cannot solve this deeper energy poverty.
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为了解决能源贫困问题，
06:37
To solve energy poverty,
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我们需要大规模地输送
可靠的、廉价的电力，
可靠的、廉价的电力，
06:38
we need to deliver reliable,
affordable electricity at scale,
affordable electricity at scale,
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从而为整个社会工作岗位的创造
与收入增长提供动力。
与收入增长提供动力。
06:43
to power economy-wide job creation
and income growth.
and income growth.
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06:47
This need, however, bumps
against an emerging narrative that,
against an emerging narrative that,
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但是，这个需求却和
一个渐渐浮现的观点产生了矛盾。
一个渐渐浮现的观点产生了矛盾。
这个观点声称，
面对当今的气候变化，
面对当今的气候变化，
06:51
faced with climate change,
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06:52
we all need to transition
from large, centralized power systems
from large, centralized power systems
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我们都需要实现
从大型、集中式能源系统
从大型、集中式能源系统
06:56
to small-scale distributed power.
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到小型、分散式能源的转型。
非洲的离网太阳能正在发展——
06:59
The growth of off-grid solar in Africa --
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07:01
and let me repeat,
off-grid solar is a good thing --
off-grid solar is a good thing --
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我重申一次，
离网太阳能是好东西——
离网太阳能是好东西——
但是这种发展很好地
契合了这一观点，
契合了这一观点，
07:04
but that growth fits nicely
into this narrative
into this narrative
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从而导致有人声称，非洲正在绕过
传统能源范式进行跨越式发展，
传统能源范式进行跨越式发展，
07:07
and has led to those claims that Africa
is leapfrogging the old ways of energy
is leapfrogging the old ways of energy
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从零开始、一块一块太阳能板地
07:11
and building its power system
from the ground up,
from the ground up,
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打造自己的能源系统。
07:14
one solar panel at a time.
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07:16
It's a nice, solicitous narrative,
but also quite naïve.
but also quite naïve.
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这是一个好听的、诱人的说法，
但同时也很天真。
但同时也很天真。
这个说法和很多
关于受硅谷启发所诞生
关于受硅谷启发所诞生
07:21
Like many narratives
of technological disruption,
of technological disruption,
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07:24
often inspired by Silicon Valley,
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1998
的颠覆性科技的叙述一样，
07:26
it takes for granted the existing systems
that underpin all of this transformation.
that underpin all of this transformation.
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这种说法同样认为，作为这些转型的基础，
这些现有系统的存在是理所当然的。
这些现有系统的存在是理所当然的。
当谈到创新与能源时，
07:32
You see, when it comes
to innovating and energy,
to innovating and energy,
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西方正在研究一个尝试过
和测试过的体系的边缘。
和测试过的体系的边缘。
07:35
the West is working around the edges
of a system that is tried and tested.
of a system that is tried and tested.
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4391
所有那些吸引眼球的东西——
07:39
And so all the sexy stuff --
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屋顶太阳能电池，
07:41
the rooftop solar,
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1492
07:43
the smart household devices,
the electric vehicles --
the electric vehicles --
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智能居家设备，电动汽车——
这些都建立在一张庞大的、
至关重要的电网之上，
至关重要的电网之上，
07:46
all of this is built on top of a massive
and absolutely essential grid,
and absolutely essential grid,
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这张电网本身也置身于一个
经过证明的管理框架之中。
经过证明的管理框架之中。
07:50
which itself exists within
a proven governance framework.
a proven governance framework.
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即使是世界上最先进的国家，
07:55
Even the most advanced
countries in the world
countries in the world
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也没有一个只有边缘、没有中心的
大型能源系统的案例。
大型能源系统的案例。
07:57
don't have an example of an energy system
that is all edges and no center at scale.
that is all edges and no center at scale.
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4239
08:03
So ultimately, no approach --
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归根结底，
不管是集中式还是分散式系统、
可再生还是化石能源，
可再生还是化石能源，
08:05
be it centralized or distributed,
renewable or fossil-based --
renewable or fossil-based --
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3762
08:09
can succeed in solving energy poverty
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2591
如果找不到方法将
可靠、廉价的电力
可靠、廉价的电力
08:12
without finding a way to deliver
reliable, affordable electricity
reliable, affordable electricity
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输送到非洲萌芽的工业与商业领域，
非洲的能源贫困依然无解。
08:16
to Africa's emerging industrial
and commercial sectors.
and commercial sectors.
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08:20
So, it's not just lights
in every rural home.
in every rural home.
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所以，我们并不只是要
点亮每一户农村家庭。
点亮每一户农村家庭。
08:23
It's power for Africa's cities
that are growing fast
that are growing fast
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我们要为非洲
快速发展的城市提供能源，
快速发展的城市提供能源，
这些城市愈发充斥着
年轻有为的人们，
年轻有为的人们，
08:27
and increasingly full
of young, capable people
of young, capable people
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他们迫切需要工作。
08:29
in desperate need of a job.
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这进而又需要强大的互联
08:32
This in turn will require
significant interconnectivity
significant interconnectivity
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以及规模经济，
08:36
and economies of scale,
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使得稳定而现代化的电网
08:37
making a robust and modern grid
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505630
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成为任何能源贫困解决方案
不可或缺的一部分。
不可或缺的一部分。
08:39
a crucial piece of any
energy poverty solution.
energy poverty solution.
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我们的第二个错误是，
盲目相信快速解决方案。
盲目相信快速解决方案。
08:43
So, our second mistake is falling
for the allure of the quick fix.
for the allure of the quick fix.
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能源贫困是存在于
08:48
You see, energy poverty exists
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08:50
within a complex socioeconomic
and political context.
and political context.
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一个复杂的社会经济
与政治背景下的。
与政治背景下的。
诸如离网太阳能之类的
新型电气化模型的
新型电气化模型的
08:54
And part of the appeal
of new electrification models
of new electrification models
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3076
08:57
such as off-grid solar, for example,
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一部分吸引力在于，
08:59
is they can often bypass the glacial pace
and inefficiency of government.
and inefficiency of government.
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4584
它们大多能绕过
政府的滞缓节奏与低下效能。
政府的滞缓节奏与低下效能。
要是使用小型系统，
你就能跳过官僚机构与程序，
你就能跳过官僚机构与程序，
09:03
See, with small systems you can skip
the bureaucracies and the utilities
the bureaucracies and the utilities
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09:08
and sell directly to customers.
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直接与顾客进行交易。
09:10
But to confront energy poverty,
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但是要想攻克能源贫困，
你不能忽略政府，
你不能忽略制度，
你不能忽略制度，
09:13
you cannot ignore governments,
you cannot ignore institutions,
you cannot ignore institutions,
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3174
09:16
you cannot ignore the many players
involved in making, moving
involved in making, moving
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3708
你不能忽略大规模生产、
传输和使用电力时
传输和使用电力时
涉及到的多方参与者。
09:20
and using electricity at scale,
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换句话说，
当我们要为发展供能时，
当我们要为发展供能时，
09:23
which is a way to say that when it comes
to providing energy for growth,
to providing energy for growth,
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3639
09:26
it's not just about
innovating the technology,
innovating the technology,
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2578
我们不仅仅要考虑科技上的革新，
还要面对改善治理、制度
与更广阔的宏观环境时
与更广阔的宏观环境时
09:29
it's about the slow and hard work
of improving governance, institutions
of improving governance, institutions
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4531
所要付出的漫长与艰苦的努力。
09:34
and the broader macroenvironment.
191
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1920
09:37
OK, so this is all good and nice, you say.
192
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3285
你可能会说，
这一切听上去都很棒。
这一切听上去都很棒。
09:40
But what about climate change?
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1635
但关于气候变化又该怎么办？
09:42
How do we ensure a high-energy
future for everyone
future for everyone
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我们如何确保在未来，
每个人都享有充足能源
每个人都享有充足能源
09:46
while also curbing our emissions?
195
574396
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的同时减少排放？
09:49
Well, we'll have to make
some complex tradeoffs,
some complex tradeoffs,
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3148
我们必须要做出一些复杂的妥协，
但我相信，对非洲来说
一个能源充足的未来
一个能源充足的未来
09:52
but I believe that
a high-energy future for Africa
a high-energy future for Africa
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2374
09:54
is not mutually exclusive
to a low-carbon future.
to a low-carbon future.
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2716
和一个低碳的未来并不矛盾。
毫无疑问：
09:58
And make no mistake:
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1408
09:59
the world cannot expect Africa
to remain in energy poverty
to remain in energy poverty
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2940
世界不能指望非洲
因为气候变化
因为气候变化
就一直陷于能源贫困之中。
10:02
because of climate change.
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1514
10:04
(Applause)
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3769
（掌声）
实际上，事实表明，
情况恰好相反。
情况恰好相反。
10:11
Actually, the facts show
that the opposite is true.
that the opposite is true.
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能源对于非洲适应环境变化、
提高抵御能力
提高抵御能力
10:15
Energy will be essential for Africa
to adapt to climate change
to adapt to climate change
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3194
有至关重要的作用。
10:18
and build resilience.
205
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1481
10:19
You see, rising temperatures will mean
increased demand for space cooling
increased demand for space cooling
206
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4004
气温升高意味着
对于制冷和冷藏
对于制冷和冷藏
的需求增加。
10:24
and cold storage.
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612020
1173
地下水减少意味着
抽水灌溉增加。
抽水灌溉增加。
10:25
Declining water tables will mean
increased pumped irrigation.
increased pumped irrigation.
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3676
极端的天气与上升的海平面
将要求我们大幅扩建
将要求我们大幅扩建
10:28
And extreme weather and rising sea levels
will require a significant expansion
will require a significant expansion
209
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3862
以及加固我们的基础设施。
10:32
and reinforcement of our infrastructure.
210
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2231
这些都是高能耗的作业。
10:35
These are all energy-intensive activities.
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2660
10:38
So balancing climate change
and Africa's pressing need
and Africa's pressing need
212
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3506
因此，在气候变化
和非洲向能源充足的未来
和非洲向能源充足的未来
转化的迫切需求之间寻找平衡，
10:42
to transition to a high-energy future
213
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2041
将会十分艰巨。
10:44
will be tough.
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1231
但是否要这样做也是不容磋商的；
我们必须找到办法。
我们必须找到办法。
10:45
But doing so is nonnegotiable;
we will have to find a way.
we will have to find a way.
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第一步是拓宽辩论的视角，
10:49
The first step is broadening
the terms of the debate
the terms of the debate
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2575
10:52
away from this either-or framing.
217
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2689
从这种非此即彼
的局限中解放出来。
的局限中解放出来。
10:55
And we also must stop
romanticizing solutions
romanticizing solutions
218
643102
2583
另外，一些解决方案会转移
我们对核心挑战的注意力，
我们对核心挑战的注意力，
10:57
that distract us from the core challenges.
219
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2276
我们也必须停止
对这些方案的美化。
对这些方案的美化。
11:01
And let's not also forget that Africa
is endowed with vast natural resources,
is endowed with vast natural resources,
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我们也不能忘记，
非洲拥有得天独厚的丰富自然资源，
非洲拥有得天独厚的丰富自然资源，
其中包含了可观的可再生潜能。
11:05
including significant renewable potential.
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2614
11:08
For example, in Kenya, where I'm from,
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2741
比如说，在我的祖国肯尼亚，
有一半的电能来源于地热能，
11:11
geothermal power accounts
for half of our electricity generation,
for half of our electricity generation,
223
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3764
而水能则是另一个主要电力来源，
11:15
and with hydro being
the other major source,
the other major source,
224
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2069
所以我们的主要电力来源
已经是可再生能源了。
已经是可再生能源了。
11:17
we are already mainly powered
by renewable energy.
by renewable energy.
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2451
11:20
We also just brought online
Africa's largest wind farm
Africa's largest wind farm
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668100
3284
我们也刚刚开始运行
非洲最大的风力发电厂，
非洲最大的风力发电厂，
11:23
and East Africa's biggest solar facility.
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2914
以及东非最大的太阳能发电设施。
（掌声）
11:26
(Applause)
228
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3639
此外，
11:30
In addition,
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678906
1389
新的技术也意味着
我们现在可以以更高的效率
我们现在可以以更高的效率
11:32
new technology means that we can now
run and design our power systems
run and design our power systems
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680319
3789
运行和设计我们的能源系统
以及使用我们的能源，
以及使用我们的能源，
11:36
and use energy more efficiently than ever,
231
684132
2458
达到事半功倍的效果。
11:38
doing more with less.
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686614
1684
11:40
Energy efficiency
will be an important tool
will be an important tool
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2157
能源效率将会是
我们与气候变化
我们与气候变化
作斗争的重要工具。
11:42
in the fight against climate change.
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2124
那么在最后，我想说的是，
非洲是一个真实的地方，有真实的人民，
非洲是一个真实的地方，有真实的人民，
11:45
So in closing, I'd just like to say that
Africa is a real place with real people,
Africa is a real place with real people,
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693998
5273
11:51
navigating complex challenges
and major transitions,
and major transitions,
236
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3207
她正在应对复杂的挑战和重大的转变，
正如世界任何其他地方一样。
11:54
just like any other region of the world.
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2296
（掌声）
11:56
(Applause)
238
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3152
虽然每个国家、每个地区
12:02
And while each country and each region
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710390
2665
12:05
has its social, economic
and political quirks,
and political quirks,
240
713079
2908
都有其独有的社会、经济
与政治特色，
与政治特色，
电力的物理原理
在任何地方都是不变的。
在任何地方都是不变的。
12:08
the physics of electricity
are the same everywhere.
are the same everywhere.
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2566
（笑声）（掌声）
12:10
(Laughter) (Applause)
242
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3753
而我们的经济发展对能源的需求
12:14
And the energy needs of our economies
243
722378
3022
12:17
are just as intensive as those
of any other economy.
of any other economy.
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3380
和任何其它经济体一样强烈。
家庭电气化的普及
12:21
So, the expansion
of household electrification
of household electrification
245
729535
2825
通过网内外解决方案的组合
12:24
through a mix of
on- and off-grid solutions
on- and off-grid solutions
246
732384
2158
对非洲起到了难以置信的影响。
12:26
has had an incredible impact in Africa.
247
734566
2342
但它们还远远不足以
解决能源贫困的难题。
解决能源贫困的难题。
12:28
But they are nowhere near sufficient
for solving energy poverty.
for solving energy poverty.
248
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3279
要想克服能源贫困，
12:32
To solve energy poverty,
249
740628
1698
12:34
we need generation of electricity
from diverse sources at scale
from diverse sources at scale
250
742350
4130
我们需要大规模、多样化的发电来源
和现代化的电网，
为能量充足的未来提供动力，
为能量充足的未来提供动力，
12:38
and modern grids to power
a high-energy future,
a high-energy future,
251
746504
2467
12:40
in which Africans can enjoy
modern living standards
modern living standards
252
748995
2752
让非洲人享受现代生活水平
12:43
and well-paying jobs.
253
751771
1491
和高薪工作。
12:45
Africans deserve this,
254
753744
1788
非洲值得拥有这些；
而到了 2100 年时，
世界上每四个人中
世界上每四个人中
12:47
and with one of every four people
in the world projected to be African
in the world projected to be African
255
755556
4087
将有一人来自非洲，
12:51
by the year 2100,
256
759667
1646
届时，我们的星球也需要它。
12:53
the planet needs it.
257
761337
1251
谢谢。
12:54
Thank you.
258
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1166
（掌声）
12:55
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rose M. Mutiso - Energy scientistAs the Research Director of the Energy for Growth Hub, Rose M. Mutiso works with a global network of experts finding solutions for energy deficits across Africa and Asia. She is also cofounder of the Mawazo Institute, helping African women to become scholars and thought leaders.
Why you should listen
As a student in Nairobi, Kenya, Rose M. Mutiso dreamed of following her curiosity. Drawn to materials science and engineering -- which underpins ubiquitous features of modern life like plastics and electronics -- she received a PhD in the field, pursuing nanotechnology, polymer physics and creating materials for energy and electronic applications. As a postdoctoral fellow in the US Senate, Mutiso coauthored legislation signed into law by President Barack Obama.
Grateful for an education supported by financial aid and taxpayer-funded research, Mutiso resolved to help inspire Africa's next generation of female scholars. She cofounded the Mawazo ("Ideas") Institute, a nonprofit research institute based in Nairobi. She is also research director of the Energy for Growth Hub, working with global experts to find solutions for energy deficits in developing countries. Her dream is to see more African women shaping decision-making and public discourse on critical issues such as energy poverty.
Rose M. Mutiso | Speaker | TED.com