Robin Hanson: What would happen if we upload our brains to computers?
罗宾 · 汉森: 如果我们把大脑上传至电脑会发生什么?
Does humanity have a future as uploaded minds? In his work, Robin Hanson asks this and other extra-large questions. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
as smart as people,
会像人类一样聪明,
accumulating better software,
积累技术,开发出更好的软件,
that may take centuries.
这可能需要几个世纪的时间。
powerful theories of intelligence.
它将会更快地发生。
from the human brain.
three technologies to be good enough,
让三种技术的发展足够成熟,
lots of cheap, fast, parallel computers.
高性能的,并行的计算机。
to scan individual human brains
从空间与化学细节上
connected to what, of what type.
位于哪里,它又连接着什么结构。
computer models
脑细胞的工作原理——
changing interval state
各类大脑细胞模型,
of all the kinds of brain cells
形成一个足够完整的大脑模型,
a good enough model of an entire brain,
input-output behavior as the original.
和人类大脑一样。
它可能会回话。
it might do them.
一切都会改变。
everything would change.
about this idea for decades,
Or is it just an empty machine?
或者它只是一个空壳的机器?
is that me or someone else?"
那它到底是我还是其他人?”
that I'm going to ignore ...
to guess what would happen,
来猜测会发生什么,
I'm offering analysis.
what's most likely to happen
最有可能会发生的事情,
by something I tell you here,
你的事情不感到丝毫不安的话,
of their life in virtual reality.
都是在虚拟现实生活中度过的。
if you were using virtual reality.
这就是你的样子。
you might hear gulls flying above,
你可能会听到海鸥在飞翔,
on your cheeks or smell seawater,
你甚至可以感觉到脸颊上的风,
a lot of time here,
make a phone call,
比如打个电话,
you would look like in virtual reality,
虚拟现实中的你真正的样子,
would look like in virtual reality.
这就是仿真脑的真正的样子。
sitting in a server rack somewhere.
服务器柜里的电脑硬件。
and experience the same thing.
和体验到同样的东西。
有些事情是不同的。
that virtual reality isn't entirely real,
虚拟现实并不是完全真实的,
as this room feels to you now
对这个房间或其他东西的感觉一样,
some more action possibilities.
也有更多的可能性。
runs at the same speed,
以恒定的速度运行,
计算机硬件来调整运行速度,
computer hardware to run faster or slower,
seems to be going too fast,
世界发展得太快了,
would seem to slow down.
在那个时候复制自己的副本。
a copy of itself at that moment.
everything the same,
looking at the same speed,
以相同的速度观察一切,
"You are the copy."
“你只是复制品。”
usually in practice.
不过在现实中不太常见。
the computer that represents its brain,
也就是承载它的大脑的电脑,
at the speed of light,
以光速在世界上移动,
with ems near that new location.
在新位置附近的仿真脑交互。
what ems can do.
讨论仿真脑能做什么。
to understand three key facts.
我们需要理解三个关键的事实。
the human they emulate would do
理应会做出它们所模仿的人类
are very human.
行为是非常人性化的。
they're living in a different world.
他们生活在一个不同的世界。
真正的资源来生存。
real resources to survive.
energy, cooling, or they can't exist.
电源、散热,不然它们将不能生存。
that an em experiences,
had to work to pay for it.
需要为此工作赚钱。
quicker than the em economy,
快于仿真脑的经济体,
to em subsistence levels.
将会低到仅能维持生活,
most of the time.
this is what ems usually see:
you might think, is exotic and strange,
勉强糊口的工资的情景让人匪夷所思,
in human history,
all wild animals have ever lived,
在这种情况下会做什么。
in this situation.
what it takes to survive,
so much about the em world.
关于仿真脑世界的情况。
about what they want
行为都是为了生存。
what it takes to survive.
from the point of view of the ems --
讨论了它们的世界——
来窥视它们的整个世界。
and look at their whole world.
比我们的快得多,
much faster than ours,
we would experience in a century or two,
所经历的变化,
this age much beyond that,
我不知道是什么。
will happen, I don't know what.
runs even faster,
thousands of years in this year or two,
经历了相当于我们数千年的生活,
is actually changing more slowly
in a small number of very dense cities.
人口密集的城市里挤在一起。
themselves in virtual reality,
虚拟现实中如何看待自己,
physically crammed together.
是如何被挤在一起的。
feels really painfully slow,
其物理行进速度非常缓慢,
都是自给自足的,
远离仿真脑城市的地方,
away from the em cities
因为仿真脑对它并不感兴趣。
really aren't that interested in it.
以保持良好的生活。
all of the capital in this world.
世界上所有的资本。
their wealth grows very fast.
他们的财富也增长很快。
don't actually own that much
并没有真正拥有什么东西,
they need to acquire sufficient assets,
他们需要获得足够的资产,
unproductive retirees around us today,
很多没有效率的退休人员,
拿走他们的一切。
and take their stuff.
the institutions we share with them.
会破坏我们与他们共享的制度。
retire in peace during the age of em.
很有可能让人类和平地退休。
the age of em only lasts a year or two
只会持续一到两年,
of the few hundred most productive humans.
几百个最有生产力的人的翻版。
compared to the typical human,
与一般人相比他们是精英,
诺贝尔奖得主,
Nobel Prize winner,
perhaps with nostalgia and gratitude,
怀旧和感激之情看待人类,
how you think about your ancestors.
自己是怎么看待祖先的。
人类个体在生产力方面的不同之处。
differ in terms of productivity.
预测仿真脑的特征——
to predict features of ems --
conscientious, hard-working,
也有巨大的多样性。
of the kinds of variety that humans do,
大多数种类的多样性,
and profession,
体现了多样性,
is mind speed.
从与人类的思考速度齐平,
faster than human speed,
slower than human speed.
markers of high status.
They win arguments.
在争论中具有优势。
of our literature.
鬼魂就在我们身边——
也可以和它们互动。
if you pay the price.
也产生不了多少影响,
they can't influence much,
so what's the point?
不过那有什么意义呢?
也有更多的多样性。
in the structure of their lives.
and you end, really simple.
从开始到结束,很简单。
some short-term copies
这些短期版本,
those short term versions in a moment,
for the next day.
when there's more demand for that.
它们会进行更多次的自我复制。
the future's going.
来详细说明它的构想,
who elaborate that,
larger, more coherent designs.
更连贯的设计。
for the last 20 years,
是一种悠闲的生活。
two hours a day, a life of leisure.
every day they had a thousand copies,
都有一千份拷贝,
第二天接着工作。
went on to the next day.
工作时间超过了99%。
well over 99 percent of the time.
一种悠闲的生活。
a life of leisure.
You start and you end.
if at the start of party,
意味着你在那天之后再也
you would not remember that party
"I'm about to die, this is terrible.
“我快要死了,这太可怕了。
因为他们不记得我做了什么。”
because they won't remember what I do."
只是不记得我刚刚做了什么。”
I just won't remember what I did."
a short-term copy
attitude possibilities.
生命短暂的生物。我讨厌这个。”
creature with a short life. I hate this."
它只是不记得这个部分。”
who won't remember this part."
that second attitude,
而是因为它能帮助它们更好地相处。
but because it helps them get along.
我们必须入侵伊拉克,
we must invade Iraq,
与你的拷贝可以进入保险箱,
and a copy of you can go inside a safe,
from your copy to yourself,
发送给你的本体一条信息,
there is a good reason.
to evaluate this world.
或者讨厌它。
if you love it or hate it.
from thousands of years ago
they heard about it,
is really just weird.
未来世界之前,你应该好好了解它,
you should really learn a lot about it,
那就努力工作去改变它。
work to change it.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robin Hanson - Futurist, social scientistDoes humanity have a future as uploaded minds? In his work, Robin Hanson asks this and other extra-large questions.
Why you should listen
In his book, The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth, Robin Hanson re-imagines humanity's role as our tech becomes smarter. A pioneer in prediction markets, also known as information markets and idea futures, Hanson has been known since the 1980s for taking the very very long view on topics as varied as (a selected list) spatial product competition, health incentive contracts, group insurance, product bans, evolutionary psychology and bioethics of health care, voter information incentives, incentives to fake expertise, Bayesian classification, agreeing to disagree, self-deception in disagreement, probability elicitation, wiretaps, image reconstruction, the history of science prizes, reversible computation, the origin of life, the survival of humanity, very long term economic growth, growth given machine intelligence and interstellar colonization.
Meanwhile, he has developed new technologies for conditional, combinatorial and intermediated trading, and he studied insider trading, manipulation and other foul play. Hanson is associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. His next book is The Elephant in the Brain, co-authored with Kevin Simler, due in 2018.
Robin Hanson | Speaker | TED.com