ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robin Hanson - Futurist, social scientist
Does humanity have a future as uploaded minds? In his work, Robin Hanson asks this and other extra-large questions.

Why you should listen

In his book, The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth, Robin Hanson re-imagines humanity's role as our tech becomes smarter. A pioneer in prediction markets, also known as information markets and idea futures, Hanson has been known since the 1980s for taking the very very long view on topics as varied as (a selected list) spatial product competition, health incentive contracts, group insurance, product bans, evolutionary psychology and bioethics of health care, voter information incentives, incentives to fake expertise, Bayesian classification, agreeing to disagree, self-deception in disagreement, probability elicitation, wiretaps, image reconstruction, the history of science prizes, reversible computation, the origin of life, the survival of humanity, very long term economic growth, growth given machine intelligence and interstellar colonization.

Meanwhile, he has developed new technologies for conditional, combinatorial and intermediated trading, and he studied insider trading, manipulation and other foul play. Hanson is associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. His next book is The Elephant in the Brain, co-authored with Kevin Simler, due in 2018.

More profile about the speaker
Robin Hanson | Speaker | TED.com
TED2017

Robin Hanson: What would happen if we upload our brains to computers?

罗宾 · 汉森: 如果我们把大脑上传至电脑会发生什么?

Filmed:
1,430,160 views

认识一下“仿真脑” —— 模仿人类大脑的机器,可以思考,感觉和工作,就像被它们复制的真实大脑一样。身为未来主义者兼社会科学家的罗宾 · 汉森描述了一个可能的未来: 仿真脑接管了全球经济,运行在超高速计算机上,并进行自我复制完成多任务处理,只留给人类一个选择: 永久退休。看一看汉森所描述的那不可思议的未来,如果机器人统治地球时将会发生的事情。
- Futurist, social scientist
Does humanity have a future as uploaded minds? In his work, Robin Hanson asks this and other extra-large questions. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
Someday日后, we may可能 have robots机器人
as smart聪明 as people,
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总有一天,机器人
会像人类一样聪明,
00:17
artificial人造 intelligence情报, AIAI.
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这要归功于人工智能,简称AI。
00:20
How could that happen发生?
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这是怎样发生的呢?
00:22
One route路线 is that we'll just keep
accumulating积累 better software软件,
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一种方法是我们将不断地
积累技术,开发出更好的软件,
00:26
like we've我们已经 been doing for 70 years年份.
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我们已经这样做了70年了。
00:28
At past过去 rates利率 of progress进展,
that may可能 take centuries百年.
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按照过去的发展速度来看,
这可能需要几个世纪的时间。
00:32
Some say it'll它会 happen发生 a lot faster更快
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有人说,当我们发现
00:34
as we discover发现 grand盛大 new
powerful强大 theories理论 of intelligence情报.
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更新颖、更强大的智能理论时,
它将会更快地发生。
00:38
I'm skeptical怀疑的.
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我对此持怀疑态度。
00:40
But a third第三 scenario脚本
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但还有第三种情况,
00:43
is what I'm going to talk about today今天.
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也是我今天要讲的。
这个想法是从人脑中移植出智能软件。
00:45
The idea理念 is to port港口 the software软件
from the human人的 brain.
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00:48
To do this, we're going to need
three technologies技术 to be good enough足够,
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要做到这一点,需要
让三种技术的发展足够成熟,
但目前还为时尚早。
00:52
and none没有 of them are there yet然而.
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00:54
First, we're going to need
lots of cheap低廉, fast快速, parallel平行 computers电脑.
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首先,我们需要很多便宜的,
高性能的,并行的计算机。
01:00
Second第二, we're going to need
to scan扫描 individual个人 human人的 brains大脑
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第二,我们需要精确地
从空间与化学细节上
01:05
in fine spatial空间的 and chemical化学 detail详情,
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来扫描个人的大脑,
01:07
to see exactly究竟 what cells细胞 are where,
connected连接的 to what, of what type类型.
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才能确切地知道什么类型的细胞
位于哪里,它又连接着什么结构。
01:11
And third第三, we're going to need
computer电脑 models楷模
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并且第三,我们需要一种电脑模型,
01:15
of how each kind of brain cell细胞 works作品 --
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它包含了每一种
脑细胞的工作原理——
01:19
taking服用 input输入 signals信号,
changing改变 interval间隔 state
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接受输入信号,改变间隔状态,
然后发送输出信号。
01:21
and sending发出 output产量 signals信号.
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如果我们有足够多的
各类大脑细胞模型,
01:22
If we have good enough足够 models楷模
of all the kinds of brain cells细胞
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与一个足够好的大脑模型,
01:26
and a good enough足够 model模型 of the brain,
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我们就可以把它们结合在一起来
形成一个足够完整的大脑模型,
01:28
we can put it together一起 to make
a good enough足够 model模型 of an entire整个 brain,
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01:32
and that model模型 would have the same相同
input-output输入输出 behavior行为 as the original原版的.
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并且这个模型的输入输出行为
和人类大脑一样。
所以如果你跟它说话,
它可能会回话。
01:36
So if you talk to it, it might威力 talk back.
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如果你让它去做事情,它可能会做。
01:38
If you ask it to do things,
it might威力 do them.
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如果我们能做到这一点,
一切都会改变。
01:40
And if we could do that,
everything would change更改.
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几十年来人们一直在谈论这个想法,
01:43
People have been talking
about this idea理念 for decades几十年,
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以“上传”的名义。
01:46
under the name名称 of "uploads上传."
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01:47
I'm going to call them "emsEMS."
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我把它们叫做“仿真脑 (em)”。
01:50
When they talk about it, they say,
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当他们谈论这个时会说,
”这真的可能吗?
01:52
"Is this even possible可能?
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01:54
If you made制作 one, would it be conscious意识?
Or is it just an empty machine?
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如果你做了一个,它会有意识的吗?
或者它只是一个空壳的机器?
01:58
If you made制作 one of me,
is that me or someone有人 else其他?"
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如果你创造了一个‘我’,
那它到底是我还是其他人?”
02:01
These are all fascinating迷人 questions问题
that I'm going to ignore忽视 ...
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我将忽略这些令人着迷的问题……
02:04
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:07
because I see a neglected被忽视的 question:
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因为我看到了一个被忽视的问题:
02:09
What would actually其实 happen发生?
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究竟会发生什么事?
02:12
I became成为 obsessed痴迷 with this question.
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我对这个问题很痴迷。
02:15
I spent花费 four years年份 trying to analyze分析 it,
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我花了四年时间来分析它,
02:18
using运用 standard标准 academic学术的 tools工具,
to guess猜测 what would happen发生,
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使用标准的学术工具,
来猜测会发生什么,
02:22
and I'm here to tell you what I found发现.
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下面我就来说一说我的发现。
02:24
But be warned警告 --
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但是要注意——
02:26
I'm not offering inspiration灵感,
I'm offering analysis分析.
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我不提供灵感,只提供分析结果。
02:30
I see my job工作 as telling告诉 you
what's most likely容易 to happen发生
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我的工作就是告诉你
最有可能会发生的事情,
02:32
if we did the least最小 to avoid避免 it.
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如果我们没有努力避免它的话。
02:36
If you aren't at least最小 a bit disturbed不安
by something I tell you here,
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如果你对我在这里告诉
你的事情不感到丝毫不安的话,
那你只是没有认真听。
02:39
you're just not paying付款 attention注意.
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(笑声)
02:41
(Laughter笑声)
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好的,我首先要告诉你们的是,
02:42
OK, the first thing I can tell you
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02:45
is that emsEMS spend most
of their life in virtual虚拟 reality现实.
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仿真脑的大部分时间
都是在虚拟现实生活中度过的。
02:48
This is what you might威力 look like
if you were using运用 virtual虚拟 reality现实.
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如果你使用虚拟现实,
这就是你的样子。
02:54
And this is what you might威力 see:
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这就是你们可能看到的:
02:57
sunlight阳光 glinting闪闪发光 off of water,
you might威力 hear gulls海鸥 flying飞行 above以上,
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阳光在水面上闪闪发光,
你可能会听到海鸥在飞翔,
03:00
you might威力 even feel the wind
on your cheeks脸颊 or smell seawater海水,
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在高级硬件的帮助下,
你甚至可以感觉到脸颊上的风,
或者闻到海水的味道。
03:03
with advanced高级 hardware硬件.
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03:06
Now, if you were to spend
a lot of time here,
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如果你要花很多时间在这里,
你可能想要一个仪表盘,
03:08
you might威力 want a dashboard仪表板
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03:09
where you could do things like
make a phone电话 call,
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让你可以做一些事情,
比如打个电话,
移动到一个新的虚拟世界,
03:12
move移动 to a new virtual虚拟 world世界,
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03:13
check your bank银行 account帐户.
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检查你的银行账户。
03:15
Now, while this is what
you would look like in virtual虚拟 reality现实,
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这就是置身于
虚拟现实中的你真正的样子,
03:19
this is what an emEM
would look like in virtual虚拟 reality现实.
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同样在虚拟现实中,
这就是仿真脑的真正的样子。
03:22
It's computer电脑 hardware硬件
sitting坐在 in a server服务器 rack somewhere某处.
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它是放在某处一个
服务器柜里的电脑硬件。
03:25
But still, it could see
and experience经验 the same相同 thing.
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但是,它仍然可以看到
和体验到同样的东西。
03:29
But some things are different不同 for emsEMS.
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但对于仿真脑来说,
有些事情是不同的。
03:31
First, while you'll你会 probably大概 always notice注意
that virtual虚拟 reality现实 isn't entirely完全 real真实,
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首先,你可能会注意到
虚拟现实并不是完全真实的,
03:36
to an emEM, it can feel as real真实 to them
as this room房间 feels感觉 to you now
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而对仿真脑来说,就像你
对这个房间或其他东西的感觉一样,
一切如此真实。
03:39
or as anything ever feels感觉.
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03:41
And emsEMS also have
some more action行动 possibilities可能性.
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并且仿真脑在行动上
也有更多的可能性。
03:44
For example, your mind心神 just always
runs运行 at the same相同 speed速度,
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例如,你的大脑总是
以恒定的速度运行,
但是一个仿真脑可以通过增减
计算机硬件来调整运行速度,
03:47
but an emEM can add more or less
computer电脑 hardware硬件 to run faster更快 or slower比较慢,
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03:50
and therefore因此, if the world世界 around them
seems似乎 to be going too fast快速,
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因此,如果它们觉得周围的
世界发展得太快了,
就可以加快思维速度,
03:54
they can just speed速度 up their mind心神,
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03:56
and the world世界 around them
would seem似乎 to slow down.
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这样它们周围的世界似乎就会变慢。
此外,一个仿真脑还可以
在那个时候复制自己的副本。
03:58
In addition加成, an emEM can make
a copy复制 of itself本身 at that moment时刻.
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04:04
This copy复制 would remember记得
everything the same相同,
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这个拷贝会记住所有的东西,
04:06
and if it starts启动 out with the same相同 speed速度,
looking at the same相同 speed速度,
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如果它以同样的速度开始运行,
以相同的速度观察一切,
04:09
it might威力 even need to be told,
"You are the copy复制."
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那可能还需要告诉它:
“你只是复制品。”
04:12
And emEM could make archive档案 copies副本,
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仿真脑也可以制作存档,
04:14
and with enough足够 archives档案,
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如果有足够的档案,
一个仿真脑也可以是不朽的——
04:16
an emEM can be immortal不朽 --
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04:18
in principle原理, though虽然 not
usually平时 in practice实践.
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这是从原理上讲,
不过在现实中不太常见。
04:21
And an emEM can move移动 its brain,
the computer电脑 that represents代表 its brain,
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一个仿真脑可以移动它的大脑,
也就是承载它的大脑的电脑,
04:24
from one physical物理 location位置 to another另一个.
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从一个物理位置到另一个物理位置。
04:28
EmsEms can actually其实 move移动 around the world世界
at the speed速度 of light,
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事实上,仿真脑可以
以光速在世界上移动,
通过移动到一个新的位置,
04:31
and by moving移动 to a new location位置,
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04:32
they can interact相互作用 more quickly很快
with emsEMS near that new location位置.
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它们可以更快地与
在新位置附近的仿真脑交互。
04:36
So far, I've been talking about
what emsEMS can do.
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到目前为止,我一直在
讨论仿真脑能做什么。
04:41
What do emsEMS choose选择 to do?
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但仿真脑会选择做什么呢?
04:44
To understand理解 that, we'll need
to understand理解 three key facts事实.
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要理解这一点,
我们需要理解三个关键的事实。
04:48
First, emsEMS by definition定义 do what
the human人的 they emulate仿真 would do
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首先,根据定义,仿真脑在同一情况下
理应会做出它们所模仿的人类
04:54
in the same相同 situation情况.
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所做的事情。
04:56
So their lives生活 and behavior行为
are very human人的.
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所以它们的生活和
行为是非常人性化的。
04:58
They're mainly主要 different不同 because
they're living活的 in a different不同 world世界.
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其中的区别主要归因于
他们生活在一个不同的世界。
其次,仿真脑需要
真正的资源来生存。
05:02
Second第二, emsEMS need
real真实 resources资源 to survive生存.
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你需要食物与住所,否则就性命不保。
05:05
You need food餐饮 and shelter庇护 or you'll你会 die.
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05:09
Also, emsEMS need computer电脑 hardware硬件,
energy能源, cooling冷却, or they can't exist存在.
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同样,仿真脑需要计算机硬件、
电源、散热,不然它们将不能生存。
05:13
For every一切 subjective主观 minute分钟
that an emEM experiences经验,
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对于仿真脑经历的每一个主观时刻,
05:16
someone有人, usually平时 that emEM,
had to work to pay工资 for it.
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某个“人”——它通常是仿真脑本身,
需要为此工作赚钱。
05:20
Third第三, emsEMS are poor较差的.
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第三,仿真脑很穷。
05:21
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
05:23
The emEM population人口 can grow增长
quicker更快 than the emEM economy经济,
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仿真脑社会的人口增长速度
快于仿真脑的经济体,
05:26
so that means手段 wages工资 fall秋季 down
to emEM subsistence生活 levels水平.
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这意味着它们的工资水平
将会低到仅能维持生活,
05:29
That means手段 emsEMS have to be working加工
most of the time.
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仿真脑的大部分时间都必须工作。
05:32
So that means手段
this is what emsEMS usually平时 see:
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这也意味着仿真脑通常会看到:
05:35
beautiful美丽 and luxurious豪华, but desks书桌 --
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美丽又豪华的,办公桌——
05:38
they're working加工 most of the time.
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他们大部分的时间都在工作。
05:40
Now, a subsistence生活 wage工资 scenario脚本,
you might威力 think, is exotic异国情调 and strange奇怪,
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你可能会认为,这种只能赚取
勉强糊口的工资的情景让人匪夷所思,
05:44
but it's actually其实 the usual通常 case案件
in human人的 history历史,
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但这种情况在人类历史上并不罕见,
05:46
and it's how pretty漂亮 much
all wild野生 animals动物 have ever lived生活,
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也几乎是所有野生动物的生活方式,
所以我们知道人类
在这种情况下会做什么。
05:49
so we know what humans人类 do
in this situation情况.
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05:51
Humans人类 basically基本上 do
what it takes to survive生存,
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人类基本上是为了生存而行动,
05:54
and this is what lets让我们 me say
so much about the emEM world世界.
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这就是为什么我说了这么多
关于仿真脑世界的情况。
05:58
When creatures生物 are rich丰富, like you,
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当生物富有时,就像你们一样,
06:01
you have to know a lot
about what they want
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你必须知道他们想要什么,
来弄清楚他们在做什么。
06:03
to figure数字 out what they do.
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当生物贫穷时,
06:04
When creatures生物 are poor较差的,
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你知道他们大部分的
行为都是为了生存。
06:05
you know that they mostly大多 do
what it takes to survive生存.
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06:08
So we've我们已经 been talking about the emEM world世界
from the point of view视图 of the emsEMS --
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我们已经从仿真脑的角度
讨论了它们的世界——
现在,让我们回到现实中,
来窥视它们的整个世界。
06:12
now, let's step back
and look at their whole整个 world世界.
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首先,仿真脑社会的发展速度
比我们的快得多,
06:14
First, the emEM world世界 grows成长
much faster更快 than ours我们的,
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06:18
roughly大致 a hundred times faster更快.
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大概要快100倍。
06:20
So the amount of change更改
we would experience经验 in a century世纪 or two,
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所以我们在一到两个世纪里
所经历的变化,
它们会在一两年内体验到。
06:23
they would experience经验 in a year or two.
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我不太愿意把时代设计的太远,
06:25
And I'm not really willing愿意 to project项目
this age年龄 much beyond that,
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因为很有可能会发生其他事情,
我不知道是什么。
06:28
because plausibly振振有词 by then something else其他
will happen发生, I don't know what.
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第二,典型的仿真脑运行得更快,
06:32
Second第二, the typical典型 emulation仿真
runs运行 even faster更快,
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06:34
roughly大致 a thousand times human人的 speed速度.
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约是人类速度的一千倍。
06:37
So for them, they experience经验
thousands数千 of years年份 in this year or two,
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对它们来说,在这一两年内
经历了相当于我们数千年的生活,
06:42
and for them, the world世界 around them
is actually其实 changing改变 more slowly慢慢地
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他们周围的世界变化得
比你的世界似乎更慢。
06:45
than your world世界 seems似乎 to change更改 for you.
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06:48
Third第三, emsEMS are crammed临时抱佛脚 together一起
in a small number of very dense稠密 cities城市.
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第三,仿真脑在少数
人口密集的城市里挤在一起。
06:52
This is not only how they see
themselves他们自己 in virtual虚拟 reality现实,
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这不仅仅是它们在
虚拟现实中如何看待自己,
06:56
it's also how they actually其实 are
physically物理 crammed临时抱佛脚 together一起.
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也是它们实际上
是如何被挤在一起的。
06:59
So at emEM speeds速度, physical物理 travel旅行
feels感觉 really painfully痛苦 slow,
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相比于仿真脑的运行速度,
其物理行进速度非常缓慢,
07:03
so most emEM cities城市 are self-sufficient自给,
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所以大多数仿真脑城市
都是自给自足的,
大多数战争都是网络战争,
07:05
most war战争 is cyber网络 war战争,
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地球上剩余的大部分
远离仿真脑城市的地方,
07:07
and most of the rest休息 of the earth地球
away from the emEM cities城市
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留给了人类,
因为仿真脑对它并不感兴趣。
07:10
is left to the humans人类, because the emsEMS
really aren't that interested有兴趣 in it.
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07:14
Speaking请讲 of humans人类,
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说到人类,
这是你们想知道的。
07:15
you were wanting希望 to hear about that.
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07:17
Humans人类 must必须 retire退休, at once一旦, for good.
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人类必须同时退休,
以保持良好的生活。
07:22
They just can't compete竞争.
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他们不再有竞争力了。
07:24
Now, humans人类 start开始 out owning拥有
all of the capital首都 in this world世界.
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现在,人类开始拥有
世界上所有的资本。
07:28
The economy经济 grows成长 very fast快速,
their wealth财富 grows成长 very fast快速.
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经济增长非常快,
他们的财富也增长很快。
07:30
Humans人类 get rich丰富, collectively.
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人类会共同地致富。
07:34
As you may可能 know, most humans人类 today今天
don't actually其实 own拥有 that much
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你们可能知道,现在大多数人类
并没有真正拥有什么东西,
07:37
besides除了 their ability能力 to work,
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除了他们的工作能力,
07:39
so between之间 now and then,
they need to acquire获得 sufficient足够 assets资产,
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因此,从现在到那时,
他们需要获得足够的资产,
07:42
insurance保险 or sharing分享 arrangements安排,
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准备保险或分成协议,
07:44
or they may可能 starve饿死.
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要不然他们可能会挨饿。
07:46
I highly高度 recommend推荐 avoiding避免 this outcome结果.
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我强烈建议避免这种结果。
07:48
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
07:50
Now, you might威力 wonder奇迹,
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你们可能想知道,
为什么仿真脑会让人类存在?
07:51
why would emsEMS let humans人类 exist存在?
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07:53
Why not kill them, take their stuff东东?
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为什么不杀死并取代他们?
07:55
But notice注意 we have many许多
unproductive非生产性 retirees退休人员 around us today今天,
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但是注意到今天我们身边有
很多没有效率的退休人员,
而我们并不会杀死他们,
拿走他们的一切。
07:58
and we don't kill them
and take their stuff东东.
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08:00
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
08:02
In part部分, that's because it would disrupt破坏
the institutions机构 we share分享 with them.
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在某种程度上,这是因为这样
会破坏我们与他们共享的制度。
08:07
Other groups would wonder奇迹 who's谁是 next下一个,
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其他群体就会想,谁会下一个遭殃?
08:09
so plausibly振振有词, emsEMS may可能 well let humans人类
retire退休 in peace和平 during the age年龄 of emEM.
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因此,在仿真脑时期,仿真脑
很有可能让人类和平地退休。
08:14
You should worry担心 more that
the age年龄 of emEM only lasts持续 a year or two
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你应该更加担心仿真脑的时代
只会持续一到两年,
而你却不知道接下来会发生什么。
08:17
and you don't know what happens发生 next下一个.
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08:21
EmsEms are very much like humans人类,
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仿真脑和人类很像,
08:23
but they are not like the typical典型 human人的.
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但它们不像典型的人类。
08:26
The typical典型 emEM is a copy复制
of the few少数 hundred most productive生产的 humans人类.
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典型的仿真脑是
几百个最有生产力的人的翻版。
08:33
So in fact事实, they are as elite原种,
compared相比 to the typical典型 human人的,
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所以事实上,
与一般人相比他们是精英,
是典型的亿万富翁,
诺贝尔奖得主,
08:36
as the typical典型 billionaire亿万富翁,
Nobel诺贝尔 Prize winner优胜者,
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08:39
Olympic奥林匹克 gold medalist得主, head of state.
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奥运金牌得主,国家元首。
08:42
EmsEms look on humans人类
perhaps也许 with nostalgia怀旧之情 and gratitude感谢,
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仿真脑可能会带着
怀旧和感激之情看待人类,
08:46
but not so much respect尊重,
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但是没有多少尊重,
08:48
which哪一个 is, if you think about it,
how you think about your ancestors祖先.
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就像你仔细想想,
自己是怎么看待祖先的。
我们知道许多关于
人类个体在生产力方面的不同之处。
08:51
We know many许多 things about how humans人类
differ不同 in terms条款 of productivity生产率.
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我们可以用这些来
预测仿真脑的特征——
08:54
We can just use those
to predict预测 features特征 of emsEMS --
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例如,他们往往聪明,认真,勤奋,
08:57
for example, they tend趋向 to be smart聪明,
conscientious有良心, hard-working用功,
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已婚,有宗教信仰,中年。
09:00
married已婚, religious宗教, middle-aged中年.
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09:02
These are features特征 of emsEMS.
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这些是仿真脑的特点。
09:04
EmEm world世界 also contains包含 enormous巨大 variety品种.
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仿真脑的世界
也有巨大的多样性。
09:06
Not only does it continue继续 on with most
of the kinds of variety品种 that humans人类 do,
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它不仅延续了人类
大多数种类的多样性,
包括行业与专业的多样性,
09:10
including包含 variety品种 of industry行业
and profession职业,
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他们也在很多新型特点上
体现了多样性,
09:12
they also have many许多 new kinds of variety品种,
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09:15
and one of the most important重要
is mind心神 speed速度.
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而其中最重要的是思维速度。
09:17
EmsEms can plausibly振振有词 go from human人的 speed速度
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仿真脑几乎可以
从与人类的思考速度齐平,
09:21
up to a million百万 times
faster更快 than human人的 speed速度,
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到比人类的速度快一百万倍,
09:24
and down to a billion十亿 times
slower比较慢 than human人的 speed速度.
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或是比人类的速度慢10亿倍。
09:28
Faster更快 emsEMS tend趋向 to have
markers标记 of high status状态.
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更快的仿真脑往往具有较高的地位。
09:31
They embody体现 more wealth财富.
They win赢得 arguments参数.
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它们体现了更多的财富,
在争论中具有优势。
09:33
They sit at premium额外费用 locations地点.
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它们位高权重。
09:34
Slower emsEMS are mostly大多 retirees退休人员,
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较慢的仿真脑主要是退休人员,
09:36
and they are like the ghosts
of our literature文学.
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它们就像我们文学中的幽灵一样。
如果你还记得,
鬼魂就在我们身边——
09:39
If you recall召回, ghosts are all around us --
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如果你能承受代价,
也可以和它们互动。
09:41
you can interact相互作用 with them
if you pay工资 the price价钱.
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但是它们不懂什么,
也产生不了多少影响,
09:43
But they don't know much,
they can't influence影响 much,
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09:45
and they're obsessed痴迷 with the past过去,
so what's the point?
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但是对过去很着迷,
不过那有什么意义呢?
(笑声)
09:48
(Laughter笑声)
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仿真脑的生活结构中
也有更多的多样性。
09:49
EmsEms also have more variety品种
in the structure结构体 of their lives生活.
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09:52
This is your life: you start开始
and you end结束, really simple简单.
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这就是你的生活:
从开始到结束,很简单。
这是一个仿真脑的生活,
09:55
This is the life of an emEM,
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每天都有一些短期的拷贝,
09:57
who every一切 day splits拆分 off
some short-term短期 copies副本
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完成短期任务,然后结束。
09:59
to do short-term短期 tasks任务 and then end结束.
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我们稍后会详细讨论
这些短期版本,
10:01
We'll talk more about
those short term术语 versions版本 in a moment时刻,
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但是它们的效率更高,
10:05
but they are much more efficient高效
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因为它们不需要在第二天休息。
10:07
because they don't have to rest休息
for the next下一个 day.
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这个仿真脑很会投机取巧。
10:09
This emEM is more opportunistic机会主义的.
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10:11
They make more copies副本 of themselves他们自己
when there's more demand需求 for that.
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当有更多需求时,
它们会进行更多次的自我复制。
10:14
They don't know which哪一个 way
the future's期货 going.
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它们并不知道未来的发展方向。
这是一个仿真脑设计师,
10:16
This is an emEM designer设计师,
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10:17
who conceives怀 of a large system系统
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它构想了一个大系统,
然后再递归地分裂成拷贝
来详细说明它的构想,
10:19
and then breaks休息 recursively递归 into copies副本
who elaborate阐述 that,
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10:22
so emsEMS can implement实行
larger, more coherent相干 designs设计.
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因此,仿真脑可以实现更大、
更连贯的设计。
这是仿真脑世界里的一个水管工,
10:26
This an emulation仿真 plumber水管工人
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10:27
who remembers记得 that every一切 day,
for the last 20 years年份,
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它记得在过去的20年里的每一天,
它们每天只工作两小时,
是一种悠闲的生活。
10:30
they only ever worked工作
two hours小时 a day, a life of leisure闲暇.
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10:33
But what really happened发生 is,
every一切 day they had a thousand copies副本,
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但实情是,他们每天
都有一千份拷贝,
每个人都做了两小时的水管工工作,
10:36
each of whom did a two-hour两小时 plumbing水暖 job工作,
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其中只有一个人
第二天接着工作。
10:38
and only one of them
went on to the next下一个 day.
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客观地说,它们的
工作时间超过了99%。
10:40
Objectively客观, they're working加工
well over 99 percent百分 of the time.
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不过主观上,他们还记得
一种悠闲的生活。
10:43
Subjectively主观, they remember记得
a life of leisure闲暇.
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(笑声)
10:45
(Laughter笑声)
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同样是你,开始到结束。
10:46
This, again, is you.
You start开始 and you end结束.
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这可能是你在派对开始的时候,
10:48
This could be you
if at the start开始 of party派对,
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服用了一种药物,
意味着你在那天之后再也
10:50
you took a drug药物 that meant意味着
you would not remember记得 that party派对
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想不起那天的派对。
10:53
ever after that day.
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有人告诉我,他们会这么做。
10:55
Some people do this, I'm told.
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10:57
Toward the end结束 of the party派对,
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在派对即将结束的时候,
10:59
will you say to yourself你自己,
"I'm about to die, this is terrible可怕.
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你是否会对自己说:
“我快要死了,这太可怕了。
明天的那个人不是我,
因为他们不记得我做了什么。”
11:02
That person tomorrow明天 isn't me,
because they won't惯于 remember记得 what I do."
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或者你可以说,“明天,我还是我,
只是不记得我刚刚做了什么。”
11:05
Or you could say, "I will go on tomorrow明天.
I just won't惯于 remember记得 what I did."
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这是一个制造短期副本的仿真脑,
11:09
This is an emEM who splits拆分 off
a short-term短期 copy复制
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11:12
to do a short-term短期 task任务 and then end结束.
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用来完成一项短期任务,然后结束。
它们有相同的两种态度。
11:13
They have the same相同 two
attitude态度 possibilities可能性.
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它们可以说,“我是一个
生命短暂的生物。我讨厌这个。”
11:16
They can say, "I'm a new short-term短期
creature生物 with a short life. I hate讨厌 this."
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或者“我是一个更大的生物的一部分,
它只是不记得这个部分。”
11:19
Or "I'm a part部分 of a larger creature生物
who won't惯于 remember记得 this part部分."
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我预测它们会持第二种态度,
11:23
I predict预测 they'll他们会 have
that second第二 attitude态度,
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不是因为它在哲学上是正确的,
而是因为它能帮助它们更好地相处。
11:25
not because it's philosophically哲学 correct正确,
but because it helps帮助 them get along沿.
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今天,如果总统说
我们必须入侵伊拉克,
11:28
Today今天, if the president主席 says
we must必须 invade入侵 Iraq伊拉克,
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你会说,“为什么?”
11:31
and you say, "Why?"
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1151
接着他们说,“国家机密”。
11:32
and they say, "State secret秘密,"
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1382
你不确定是否可以信任他们,
11:33
you're not sure if you can trust相信 them,
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但是对于仿真脑来说,总统的拷贝
与你的拷贝可以进入保险箱,
11:35
but for emsEMS, a copy复制 of the president主席
and a copy复制 of you can go inside a safe安全,
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解释他们所有的秘密原因,
11:39
explain说明 all their secret秘密 reasons原因,
244
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1654
11:40
and then one bit comes out
from your copy复制 to yourself你自己,
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如果你被说服了,你的拷贝就会
发送给你的本体一条信息,
告诉你:你被说服了。
11:43
telling告诉 you if you were convinced相信.
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所以现在你知道有一个很好的理由。
11:45
So now you can know
there is a good reason原因.
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2223
11:47
I know you guys are all eager急于
to evaluate评估 this world世界.
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我知道你们都渴望评价这个世界。
你渴望决定你是否喜欢它,
或者讨厌它。
11:50
You're eager急于 to decide决定
if you love it or hate讨厌 it.
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但是想想你几千年前的祖先,
11:52
But think: your ancestors祖先
from thousands数千 of years年份 ago
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会根据他们听闻的最初的几件事,
11:55
would have loved喜爱 or hated your world世界
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11:57
based基于 on the first few少数 things
they heard听说 about it,
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来选择爱或恨这个世界,
因为这个世界真的很奇怪。
11:59
because your world世界
is really just weird奇怪的.
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所以在判断一个奇怪的
未来世界之前,你应该好好了解它,
12:01
So before judging判断 a strange奇怪 future未来 world世界,
you should really learn学习 a lot about it,
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也许读一本关于它的书,
12:05
maybe read a whole整个 book about it,
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然后,如果你不喜欢它,
那就努力工作去改变它。
12:07
and then, if you don't like it,
work to change更改 it.
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谢谢。
12:09
Thank you.
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(掌声)
12:10
(Applause掌声)
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Translated by Lin Zhang
Reviewed by Wilde Luo

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robin Hanson - Futurist, social scientist
Does humanity have a future as uploaded minds? In his work, Robin Hanson asks this and other extra-large questions.

Why you should listen

In his book, The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth, Robin Hanson re-imagines humanity's role as our tech becomes smarter. A pioneer in prediction markets, also known as information markets and idea futures, Hanson has been known since the 1980s for taking the very very long view on topics as varied as (a selected list) spatial product competition, health incentive contracts, group insurance, product bans, evolutionary psychology and bioethics of health care, voter information incentives, incentives to fake expertise, Bayesian classification, agreeing to disagree, self-deception in disagreement, probability elicitation, wiretaps, image reconstruction, the history of science prizes, reversible computation, the origin of life, the survival of humanity, very long term economic growth, growth given machine intelligence and interstellar colonization.

Meanwhile, he has developed new technologies for conditional, combinatorial and intermediated trading, and he studied insider trading, manipulation and other foul play. Hanson is associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. His next book is The Elephant in the Brain, co-authored with Kevin Simler, due in 2018.

More profile about the speaker
Robin Hanson | Speaker | TED.com

Data provided by TED.

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