ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul MacCready - Engineer
Paul MacCready, an aircraft designer and environmentalist, is a pioneer of human-powered flight, alternative energy for transportation, and environmentally responsible design.

Why you should listen

Through his life, Paul MacCready turned his mind, energy and heart toward his two passions: flight and the Earth. His early training as a fighter and glider pilot (glider pilots still use the "MacCready speed ring" he developed after World War II) led him to explore nontraditional flight and nontraditional energy sources.

In the 1970s, he and his company, AeroVironment, designed and built two record-breaking human-powered planes: the Gossamer Condor, the first human-powered aircraft to complete a one-mile course set by the Kremer Prize, and the Gossamer Albatross, the first to cross the English Channel. The planes' avian names reveal the deep insight that MacCready brought to the challenge -- that large birds, in their wing shape and flying style, possess an elegant secret of flight.

He then turned his wide-ranging mind toward environmentally responsible design, informed by his belief that human expansion poses a grave threat to the natural world. His team at AeroVironment prototyped an electric car that became General Motors' pioneering EV-1. They explored alternative energy sources, including building-top wind turbines. And they developed a fleet of fascinating aircraft -- including his Helios solar-powered glider, built to fly in the very top 2 percent of Earth's atmosphere, and the 2005 Global Observer, the first unmanned plane powered by hydrogen cells.

 

More profile about the speaker
Paul MacCready | Speaker | TED.com
TED1998

Paul MacCready: Nature vs. humans

保羅 麥可科羅地 之 自然與人類

Filmed:
227,903 views

一九九八年,飛行器設計師保羅 麥可科羅地談論地球上人類極大程度上主宰自然的現象。他談到我們該如何維護自然的平衡。他曾參與設計製造過 太陽能飛機、高效滑翔機和電動汽車。
- Engineer
Paul MacCready, an aircraft designer and environmentalist, is a pioneer of human-powered flight, alternative energy for transportation, and environmentally responsible design. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:18
You hear that this is the era時代 of environment環境 -- or biology生物學, or information信息 technology技術 ...
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現在是環境,或生物,或信息技術的時代
00:25
Well, it's the era時代 of a lot of different不同 things
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當然,現在也是很多其他東西的時代
00:27
that we're in right now. But one thing for sure:
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但是有一點是肯定的
00:29
it's the era時代 of change更改. There's more change更改 going on
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現在是一個正在發生改變的時代
00:32
than ever has occurred發生 in the history歷史 of human人的 life on earth地球.
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目前發生的變化是人類歷史上前所未有的
00:38
And you all sort分類 of know it, but it's hard to get it
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儘管我們知道變化存在,但是卻很難完全掌握它們
00:41
so that you really understand理解 it.
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以至於我們難於理解這些變化
00:43
And I've tried試著 to put together一起 something that's a good start開始 for this.
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我稍微分析了一下這個問題
00:48
I've tried試著 to show顯示 in this -- though雖然 the color顏色 doesn't come out --
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我試過用這個圖演示,但是效果並不明顯
00:52
that what I'm concerned關心 with is the little 50-year-年 time bubble泡沫
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我很關心後邊這段50年的虛線,它和大家息息相關
00:56
that you are in. You tend趨向 to be interested有興趣 in a generation past過去,
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人們關心一代人的過去
01:00
a generation future未來 -- your parents父母, your kids孩子, things you can change更改
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一代人的未來,你的父母,你的孩子,以及
01:04
over the next下一個 few少數 decades幾十年 -- and this 50-year-年 time bubble泡沫
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未來幾十年你能改變的實。
01:06
you kind of move移動 along沿 in. And in that 50 years年份,
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而你則沿著這代表50年的虛線前進。在未來50年,
01:10
if you look at the population人口 curve曲線, you find the population人口 of humans人類
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從人口曲線上來看,和現在相比
01:14
on the earth地球 more than doubles雙打 and we're up three-and-a-half三和半 times
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地球上的人口會翻倍,而那時的人口和我出生的時候相比是
01:19
since以來 I was born天生. When you have a new baby寶寶,
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三倍還要多。如果你有個孩子
01:22
by the time that kid孩子 gets得到 out of high school學校
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到孩子上完高中的时候
01:26
more people will be added添加 than existed存在 on earth地球 when I was born天生.
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新增人口比我出生时的 已存人口还要多
01:30
This is unprecedented史無前例, and it's big.
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这是史无前例的 也是无比巨大的改变
01:33
Where it goes in the future未來 is questioned質疑. So that's the human人的 part部分.
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人口的未来有很大的挑战。
01:37
Now, the human人的 part部分 related有關 to animals動物: look at the left side of that.
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下面是人类和动物的关系。请看左边
01:42
What I call the human人的 portion一部分 -- humans人類 and their livestock家畜 and pets寵物 --
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我所謂的人類部份 就是 人類和人所畜養的牲畜和寵物
01:45
versus the natural自然 portion一部分 -- all the other wild野生 animals動物 and just --
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相對應的是自然部份 即 其他所有的野生動物
01:49
these are vertebrates脊椎動物 and all the birds鳥類, etc等等.,
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這些是脊椎動物和所有的鳥類 等等
01:53
in the land土地 and air空氣, not in the water. How does it balance平衡?
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在陸地上在空中 但是沒有水中的。 人類和自然是怎麼平衡的呢
01:57
Certainly當然, 10,000 years年份 ago, the civilization's文明的 beginning開始,
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在一萬年前,人類文明才剛剛開始的時候
02:02
the human人的 portion一部分 was less than one tenth第十 of one percent百分. Let's look at it now.
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人類部份不到千分之一。我們現在來看一下
02:07
You follow跟隨 this curve曲線 and you see the whiter spot in the middle中間 --
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請看這條曲線,中間有一個比較白的點
02:11
that's your 50-year-年 time bubble泡沫. Humans人類, livestock家畜 and pets寵物
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這就是未來50年的虛線。人類,牲畜和寵物
02:16
are now 97 percent百分 of that integrated集成 total mass on earth地球
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目前是地球上集合質量的百分之九十七
02:20
and all wild野生 nature性質 is three percent百分. We have won韓元. The next下一個 generation
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所有的野生自然部份只佔百分之三。人類壓倒性的勝利了。
02:24
doesn't even have to worry擔心 about this game遊戲 -- it is over.
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我們的下一代不需要擔心人類和自然的競爭了。它已經結束了。
02:27
And the biggest最大 problem問題 came來了 in the last 25 years年份:
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但是最近25年有最大的問題
02:31
it went from 25 percent百分 up to that 97 percent百分.
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人類的比例從25%直接躍升到97%
02:34
And this really is a sobering發人深省 picture圖片 upon realizing實現 that we, humans人類,
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這很明確的揭示出 人類已經開始掌控地球上的生命
02:40
are in charge收費 of life on earth地球; we're like the capricious任性 Gods
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我們就像希臘神話中變幻莫測的古神
02:44
of old Greek希臘語 myths神話, kind of playing播放 with life --
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我們在玩弄操縱著生命
02:49
and not a great deal合同 of wisdom智慧 injected注射 into it.
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並沒有運用智慧來控制生命
02:53
Now, the third第三 curve曲線 is information信息 technology技術.
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下面是第三條曲線,關於信息技術發展的曲線
02:57
This is Moore's摩爾定律 Law plotted繪製 here, which哪一個 relates涉及 to density密度
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圖上畫出了關於信息密度的摩爾定律
03:01
of information信息, but it has been pretty漂亮 good for showing展示
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但同時這張圖也很好的體現了
03:04
a lot of other things about information信息 technology技術 --
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許多其他關於信息技術的內容
03:07
computers電腦, their use, Internet互聯網, etc等等. And what's important重要
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其中包括電腦的使用,互聯網等等。最總要的是,
03:11
is it just goes straight直行 up through通過 the top最佳 of the curve曲線,
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這張圖看起來就是一直向上,從圖上垂直的延伸出去了
03:14
and has no real真實 limits範圍 to it. Now try and contrast對比 these.
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完全沒有一個真正的極限。但是我們對比一下
03:20
This is the size尺寸 of the earth地球 going through通過 that same相同 --
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這是地球的尺寸。地球的尺寸可是一直沒變。(水平的)
03:22
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
03:24
-- frame. And to make it really clear明確, I've put all four on one graph圖形.
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為了更好說明這個問題,我把四張圖放到一起
03:30
There's no need to see the little detailed詳細 words on it.
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我們不用看圖上具體的小字
03:33
That first one is humans-versus-nature人類抗性質;
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第一張是人類和自然的對比
03:38
we've我們已經 won韓元, there's no more gain獲得. Human人的 population人口.
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毫無疑問,我們贏了。 接著是人口圖
03:41
And so if you're looking for growth發展 industries行業 to get into,
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如果考慮進工業增長的話
03:43
that's not a good one -- protecting保護 natural自然 creatures生物. Human人的 population人口
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就不太妙了,要保護野生的生物啊。
03:48
is going up; it's going to continue繼續 for quite相當 a while.
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人口還在增長。它將在很長一段時間保持增長
03:51
Good business商業 in obstetricians產科醫生, morticians殯葬業, and farming農業, housing住房, etc等等. --
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產科醫生,喪葬業者,農業,建築業的生意都會很紅火
03:57
they all deal合同 with human人的 bodies身體, which哪一個 require要求 being存在 fed美聯儲,
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這些行業都是和人身體有關的:人的飲食,
04:02
transported, housed安置 and so on. And the information信息 technology技術,
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人的交通,居住等等。 而信息技術
04:07
which哪一個 connects所連接 to our brains大腦, has no limit限制 -- now, that is a wonderful精彩
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是和我們頭腦聯繫在一起的,它沒有極限。
04:11
field領域 to be in. You're looking for growth發展 opportunity機會?
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如果你想找一個發展的機會的,這可是個極好的領域!
04:13
It's just going up through通過 the roof屋頂.
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這個領域的未來直上雲霄。
04:16
And then, the size尺寸 of the Earth地球. Somehow不知何故 making製造 these all compatible兼容
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然而地球的尺寸 在某種程度上限制了所有這些
04:19
with the Earth地球 looks容貌 like a pretty漂亮 bad industry行業 to be involved參與 with.
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這些發展一牽扯進地球好像就有問題了
04:24
So, that's the stage階段 out of all this. I find,
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所以這就是目前的狀況
04:28
for reasons原因 I don't understand理解, I really do have a goal目標.
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我發現了很多我不了解的原因,我有個目標
04:31
And the goal目標 is that the world世界 be desirable合意 and sustainable可持續發展
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當我的孩子和我一個年齡的時候,
04:35
when my kids孩子 reach達到 my age年齡 -- and I think that's -- in other words,
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我希望這個世界變得理想且可持續。也就是說,為了下一代
04:39
the next下一個 generation. I think that's a goal目標 that we probably大概 all share分享.
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我想這是所有人共同的目標
04:42
I think it's a hopeless絕望 goal目標. Technologically技術上, it's achievable實現;
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但我覺得希望渺茫。技術上是可實現的
04:45
economically經濟, it's achievable實現; politically政治上,
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經濟上是可實現的,但政治上
04:48
it means手段 sort分類 of the habits習慣, institutions機構 of people -- it's impossible不可能.
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由於人的慣性和習慣,是不可能實現的。
04:53
The institutions機構 of the past過去 with all their inertia慣性
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過去的慣例都帶著慣性
04:55
are just irrelevant不相干 for the future未來, except they're there
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這些慣例和未來不相干,但我們
04:59
and we have to deal合同 with them. I spend about 15 percent百分 of my time
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還要解決掉它們。我用了15%的時間
05:05
trying to save保存 the world世界, the other 85 percent百分, the usual通常 --
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去保護這個世界,85%的時間
05:08
and whatever隨你 else其他 we devote奉獻 ourselves我們自己 to.
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作平常的事
05:11
And in that 15 percent百分, the main主要 focus焦點 is on human人的 mind心神, thinking思維 skills技能,
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在15%的時間,我主要研究人思維的技能
05:17
somehow不知何故 trying to unleash發揮 kids孩子 from the straightjacket緊身衣 of school學校,
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嘗試將孩子從學校的束縛中釋放出來
05:20
which哪一個 is putting information信息 and dogma教條 into them,
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學校用信息和教條束縛孩子
05:23
get them so they really think, ask tough強硬 questions問題, argue爭論
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我想讓孩子會思考,問問題,討論
05:26
about serious嚴重 subjects主題, don't believe everything that's in the book,
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嚴肅的問題,不要盡信書
05:30
think broadly寬廣地 or creative創作的. They can be.
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視野寬廣而有創造性。這是可以實現的。
05:33
Our school學校 systems系統 are very flawed有缺陷 and do not reward獎勵 you
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我們的教育系統有很大問題。
05:37
for the things that are important重要 in life
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它不鼓勵那些對人生,或者文明發展
05:39
or for the survival生存 of civilization文明; they reward獎勵 you
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有價值的東西。它鼓勵學生
05:41
for a lot of learning學習 and sopping渾身濕透 up stuff東東.
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學東西,死記知識
05:46
We can't go into that today今天 because there isn't time --
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由於時間關係我今天就不說這個話題了
05:50
it's a broad廣闊 subject學科. One thing for sure, in the future未來
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這牽涉很多。但有一點是肯定的,未來,
05:53
there is an essential必要 feature特徵 -- necessary必要, but not sufficient足夠 --
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有一個基本特徵。必要但不充分。
06:00
which哪一個 is doing more with less. We've我們已經 got to be doing things
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即 用更少的東西完成更多的事。 我們必須有
06:04
with more efficiency效率 using運用 less energy能源, less material材料.
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更高的效率,用更少的能源,材料。
06:06
Your great-great很棒很棒 grandparents祖父母 got by on muscle肌肉 power功率,
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你的祖爺爺靠肌肉的力量生活
06:10
and yet然而 we all think there's this huge巨大 power功率 that's essential必要
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而我們認為我們的生活也是有一種力量支持的
06:14
for our lifestyle生活方式. And with all the wonderful精彩 technology技術 we have
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在美妙科技的支持下
06:18
we can do things that are much more efficient高效: conserve養護, recycle回收, etc等等.
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我們可以更有效率的生活:生態保護,循環利用等等
06:26
Let me just rush very quickly很快 through通過 things that we've我們已經 doneDONE.
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讓我快速談談我們已經取得的成就
06:29
Human-powered人力驅動 airplane飛機 -- Gossamer游絲 Condor禿鷹 sort分類 of started開始 me
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人力飛機-“遊絲禿鷲”在1976 1977年
06:32
in this direction方向 in 1976 and 77,
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啓發了我
06:38
winning勝利 the Kremer克雷默 prize in aviation航空 history歷史,
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在飛行史上,它贏得了Kremer奖
06:40
followed其次 by the Albatross信天翁. And we began開始
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後來還有一個“信天翁". 接著我們
06:43
making製造 various各個 odd planes飛機 and creatures生物.
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開始製造各種奇怪的飛機和仿生飛行器
06:46
Here's這裡的 a giant巨人 flying飛行 replica複製品 of a pterosaur翼龍 that has no tail尾巴.
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這是一個摹仿 大型無尾儀隴的作品
06:51
Trying to have it fly straight直行 is like trying to shoot射擊 an arrow箭頭
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它像一隻箭一樣直線飛
06:54
with the feathered羽毛 end結束 forward前鋒. It was a tough強硬 job工作,
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尾翼還有羽毛。這很難造
06:57
and boy男孩 it made製作 me have a lot of respect尊重 for nature性質.
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在過程中,我對自然產生了很多敬畏
07:00
This was the full充分 size尺寸 of the original原版的 creature生物.
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它和原本生物的尺寸一樣
07:04
We did things on land土地, in the air空氣, on water --
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我們造了陸地,空中,水上
07:07
vehicles汽車 of all different不同 kinds, usually平時 with some electronics電子產品
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的各種交通工具。通常帶有電子設備
07:11
or electric電動 power功率 systems系統 in them. I find they're all the same相同,
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或者電氣系統的。我發現都差不多。
07:14
whether是否 its land土地, air空氣 or water.
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不管事陸地 空中還是水上的。
07:18
I'll be focusing調焦 on the air空氣 here. This is a solar-powered太陽能 airplane飛機 --
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我著重講飛行器。這是一架太陽能驅動的飛機
07:22
165 miles英里 carrying攜帶 a person from France法國 to England英國
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它載著一個人飛了165英里 從法國飛到英國
07:25
as a symbol符號 that solar太陽能 power功率 is going to be an important重要 part部分
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作為一個太陽能的象徵。太陽能未來會很重要
07:29
of our future未來. Then we did the solar太陽能 car汽車 for General一般 Motors汽車 --
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我們為通用汽車GM做了太陽能車
07:32
the SunracerSunracer -- that won韓元 the race種族 in Australia澳大利亞.
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在澳大利亞贏得了太陽能車的比賽
07:36
We got a lot of people thinking思維 about electric電動 cars汽車,
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我們很多人在想電動車
07:38
what you could do with them. A few少數 years年份 later後來, when we suggested建議 to GMGM that
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能做甚麼。幾年前,我們告訴通用汽車GM公司
07:41
now is the time and we could do a thing called the Impact碰撞,
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現在是時候了,我們可以造一個叫“影響力”的車
07:44
they sponsored贊助 it, and here's這裡的 the Impact碰撞 that we developed發達 with them
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它們贊助了,這就是我們和他們一起開發的 車。
07:47
on their programs程式. This is the demonstrator示威者. And they put huge巨大 effort功夫
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這是一個概念車。他們投入了很多
07:51
into turning車削 it into a commercial廣告 product產品.
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去把它變成一個商業產品
07:54
With that preamble前言, let's show顯示 the first two-minute兩分鐘 videotape錄影帶,
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開場白結束,讓我們看一段兩分鐘的視頻
07:59
which哪一個 shows節目 a little airplane飛機 for surveillance監控
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展示了一架小監察幾
08:02
and moving移動 to a giant巨人 airplane飛機.
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怎麼變成一架巨型飛機的。
08:06
Narrator旁白: A tiny airplane飛機, the AVAV Pointer指針 serves供應 for surveillance監控 --
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(旁白):小飛機,AV指針是起監察作用的
08:10
in effect影響, a pair of roving漫遊 eyeglasses眼鏡. A cutting-edge前沿 example
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是一幅粗紗鏡片。一個極端的例子展示
08:14
of where miniaturization微型化 can lead if the operator操作者 is remote遠程
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如果操作員在遠處,先導作用的效果
08:17
from the vehicle車輛. It is convenient方便 to carry攜帶, assemble集合
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它容易帶著,組裝
08:20
and launch發射 by hand. Battery-powered電池供電, it is silent無聲 and rarely很少 noticed注意到.
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手動發射。電池供能,很安靜,不容易被發現
08:26
It sends發送 high-resolution高分辨率 video視頻 pictures圖片 back to the operator操作者.
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接受高分辨率圖像並發送回操作員
08:29
With onboard在船上 GPS全球定位系統, it can navigate導航 autonomously自主,
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帶有機載GPS,它可以自動導航
08:33
and it is rugged崎嶇 enough足夠 to self-land自土地 without damage損傷.
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很耐用,可以自主降落並沒有損傷。
08:38
The modern現代 sailplane滑翔機的一種 is superbly華麗 efficient高效.
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現代滑翔機超級高效
08:41
Some can glide滑行 as flat平面 as 60 feet forward前鋒 for every一切 foot腳丫子 of descent降落.
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每降低一英尺可以向前平飛60英尺
08:46
They are powered動力 only by the energy能源
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它們僅僅靠來自
08:47
they can extract提取 from the atmosphere大氣層 --
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大氣的能量。
08:50
an atmosphere大氣層 nature性質 stirs up by solar太陽能 energy能源.
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大氣被太陽能激起而產生的動能(風和各種空氣亂流)
08:53
Humans人類 and soaring沖天 birds鳥類 have found發現 nature性質 to be generous慷慨
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自然很慷慨的給與人和鳥類
08:56
in providing提供 replenishable可補充 energy能源. Sailplanes滑翔機 have flown飛行
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可再生的能源。滑翔機最多
09:00
over 1,000 miles英里, and the altitude高度 record記錄 is over 50,000 feet.
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飛過1000英里,高度紀錄超過50000英尺
09:04
(Music音樂)
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音樂
09:09
The Solar太陽能 Challenger挑戰者 was made製作 to serve服務 as a symbol符號
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“太陽挑戰者”飛機體現出
09:12
that photovoltaic光伏 cells細胞 can produce生產 real真實 power功率
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光伏電池(太陽照射,產生電流)可以產生真的力量
09:15
and will be part部分 of the world's世界 energy能源 future未來.
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將成為世界能源未來的一部分
09:18
In 1981, it flew 163 miles英里 from Paris巴黎 to England英國,
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1981年 它飛了163英里從巴黎到英國
09:22
solely獨自 on the power功率 of sunbeams陽光,
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直利用太陽光束的能量
09:24
and established既定 a basis基礎 for the Pathfinder開創者.
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並為“探路者”飛機打下基礎
09:27
(Music音樂)
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音樂
09:30
The message信息 from all these vehicles汽車 is that ideas思路 and technology技術
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這些作品告訴我們 想法和技術
09:34
can be harnessed駕馭 to produce生產 remarkable卓越 gains收益 in doing more with less --
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可以被用來產生顯著的收益 用更少做更多。
09:39
gains收益 that can help us attain達到 a desirable合意 balance平衡
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這些收益幫助我們維持一個理想的
09:42
between之間 technology技術 and nature性質. The stakes賭注 are high
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技術與科技的平衡。 我們高速發展
09:45
as we speed速度 toward a challenging具有挑戰性的 future未來.
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有著很大的風險
09:49
Buckminster巴克明斯特 Fuller富勒 said it clearly明確地: "there are no passengers乘客
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Buckminister Fuller說得很清楚: 在地球這架宇宙艦上
09:52
on spaceship飛船 Earth地球, only crew船員. We, the crew船員,
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沒有旅客,只有船員。我們就是船員,
09:56
can and must必須 do more with less -- much less."
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我們可以,必需用很少很少做很多的事
10:02
Paul保羅 MacCready麥克格雷迪: If we could have the second第二 video視頻, the one-minute等一下,
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我們很快的放一下第二個視頻
10:05
put in as quickly很快 as you can, which哪一個 -- this will show顯示
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一分鐘的視頻,展示
10:09
the Pathfinder開創者 airplane飛機 in some flights航班 this past過去 year in Hawaii夏威夷,
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探路者 飛機去年在夏威夷的幾個飛行
10:18
and will show顯示 a sequence序列 of some of the beauty美女 behind背後 it
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還有在它飛到71530英尺後
10:22
after it had just flown飛行 to 71,530 feet --
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所留下的一系列美妙事情。
10:27
higher更高 than any propeller螺旋槳 airplane飛機 has ever flown飛行.
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它的飛行高度比任何螺旋槳飛機都高
10:30
It's amazing驚人: just on the puny弱小 power功率 of the sun太陽 --
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這很奇妙,僅僅靠微薄的太陽能
10:33
by having a super lightweight輕量級 plane平面, you're able能夠 to get it up there.
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這家超級輕的飛機就能飛那麼高
10:38
It's part部分 of a long-term長期 program程序 NASANASA sponsored贊助.
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它是一個NASA(美國宇航局)長期資助的項目
10:41
And we worked工作 very closely密切 with the whole整個 thing being存在 a team球隊 effort功夫,
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我們緊密的協作
10:47
and with wonderful精彩 results結果 like that flight飛行.
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產生了這此美妙的飛行
10:52
And we're working加工 on a bigger plane平面 -- 220-foot-腳丫子 span跨度 --
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我們正在造更大的飛機 220英尺翼展
10:55
and an intermediate-size中間尺寸的, one with a regenerative再生 fuel汽油 cell細胞
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以及一個中尺寸的飛機 帶有重複充電燃料電池。
10:58
that can store商店 excess過量 energy能源 during the day, feed飼料 it back at night,
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它可以白天充電,晚上放電繼續使用
11:01
and stay up 65,000 feet for months個月 at a time.
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並一次保持65000英尺的高度一個月之久
11:05
(Music音樂)
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音樂
11:10
Ray射線 Morgan's摩根 voice語音 will come in here.
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Ray Morgan會出現
11:12
There he's the project項目 manager經理. Anything they do
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他是項目經理。所有這一切都是
11:14
is certainly當然 a team球隊 effort功夫. He ran this program程序. Here's這裡的 ...
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團隊協作的結果。他負責這個項目
11:21
some things he showed顯示 as a celebration慶典 at the very end結束.
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這是他在項目結束 慶祝時候說得:
11:25
Ray射線 Morgan摩根: We'd星期三 just ended結束 a seven-month七個月 deployment部署 of Hawaii夏威夷.
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我們剛剛結束在夏威夷一個月的部署
11:29
For those who live生活 on the mainland大陸, it was tough強硬 being存在 away from home.
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對於那些生活在大陸的人,遠離家鄉很難熬
11:35
The friendly友善 support支持, the quiet安靜 confidence置信度, congenial相投 hospitality待客
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夏威夷人和軍隊所展現的
11:39
shown顯示 by our Hawaiian夏威夷 and military軍事 hosts主機 --
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友好幫助,無聲的信任和適宜的款待
11:41
(Music音樂)
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音樂
11:44
this is starting開始 --
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這開始了-
11:45
made製作 the experience經驗 enjoyable其樂融融 and unforgettable難忘.
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使得這個經歷有樂趣且難忘
11:48
PM下午: We have real-time即時的 IRIR scans掃描 going out through通過 the Internet互聯網
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在飛機飛的時候 我們進行了
11:52
while the plane平面 is flying飛行. And it's exploring探索
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通過互聯網傳送的實時的紅外線掃描。
11:55
without polluting污染 the stratosphere平流層. That's its goal目標: the stratosphere平流層,
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它探測的時候,不會污染平流層。這是它的目的。
11:58
the blanket that really controls控制 the radiation輻射 of the earth地球
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平流層像一個毯子,保護地球免於輻射
12:02
and permits許可證 life on earth地球 to be the success成功 that it is --
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使得生命在地球上得以繁衍
12:06
probing探測 that is very important重要. And also we consider考慮 it
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探測平流層很重要。我們還把它當作
12:11
as a sort分類 of poor較差的 man's男人的 stationary靜止的 satellite衛星,
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一種廉價的靜態衛星
12:15
because it can stay right overhead高架 for months個月 at a time,
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因為它可以靜止在一個地方數月之久
12:19
2,000 times closer接近 than the real真實 GFCGFC synchronous同步 satellite衛星.
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比真正的同步軌道衛星,離地球近2000倍
12:24
We couldn't不能 bring帶來 one here to fly it and show顯示 you.
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我們不能把它帶到著 飛給你看
12:28
But now let's look at the other end結束.
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但是來看另一方面。 好。 我給你看-
12:32
In the video視頻 you saw that nine-pound九磅 or eight-pound八磅 Pointer指針 airplane飛機
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在那個視頻里 你看到了8,9磅重的
12:36
surveillance監控 drone無人駕駛飛機 that Keenan基南 has developed發達
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Keenan開發的無人偵察機
12:41
and just doneDONE a remarkable卓越 job工作. Where some have servos舵機
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他幹得漂亮。有些飛機的輔助系統
12:44
that have gotten得到 down to, oh, 18 or 25 grams,
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下降到18或者25克
12:47
his weigh稱重 one-third三分之一 of a gram公克. And what he's going to bring帶來 out here
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他的僅僅重三分之一克。他要帶過來一個
12:52
is a surveillance監控 drone無人駕駛飛機 that weighs about 2 ounces盎司 --
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僅重2盎斯的偵察機
12:56
that includes包括 the video視頻 camera相機, the batteries電池 that run it,
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其中包括了攝像頭,電池
12:59
the telemetry遙測, the receiver接收器 and so on. And we'll fly it, we hope希望,
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遙測器,接收機等等。 我們還會飛一下
13:06
with the same相同 success成功 that we had last night when we did the practice實踐.
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我們希望能和昨天晚上我們試飛的時候一樣成功
13:10
So Matt馬特 Keenan基南, just any time you're --
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好,Matt Keenan, 等你準備好-
13:13
all right
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好的
13:14
-- ready準備 to let her go. But first, we're going to make sure
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準備起飛。首先,我們要確保它的影響能
13:18
that it's appearing出現 on the screen屏幕, so you see what it sees看到.
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出現在屏幕上,你們能看到飛機看到的東西
13:22
You can imagine想像 yourself你自己 being存在 a mouse老鼠 or fly inside of it,
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你可以把自己想像成老鼠,在裡邊飛
13:26
looking out of its camera相機.
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從攝像頭看出去
13:33
Matt馬特 Keenan基南: It's switched交換的 on.
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開關打開了
13:35
PM下午: But now we're trying to get the video視頻. There we go.
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我們要弄好視頻。 好的。
13:41
MKMK: Can you bring帶來 up the house lights燈火?
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能開一下燈嗎?
13:43
PM下午: Yeah, the house lights燈火 and we'll see you all better
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好 燈打開了 我們能看得更清楚
13:46
and be able能夠 to fly the plane平面 better.
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然後飛的更好一點
13:48
MKMK: All right, we'll try to do a few少數 laps around and bring帶來 it back in.
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好,我們飛幾圈就收起來
13:54
Here we go.
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開始!
14:00
(Applause掌聲)
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掌聲
14:08
PM下午: The video視頻 worked工作 right for the first few少數 and I don't know why it --
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視頻開始還挺好,我不知道為甚麼-
14:14
there it goes.
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好了!
14:21
Oh, that was only a minute分鐘, but I think you'd be safe安全
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喔,只飛一分鐘,但我認為等降落的
14:25
to have that near the end結束 of the flight飛行, perhaps也許.
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時候你們是安全的,或許吧。。
14:30
We get to do the classic經典.
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我們得來經典得
14:35
All right.
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好的!
14:36
If this hits點擊 you, it will not hurt傷害 you.
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如果撞到你,你不會受傷
14:38
(Laughter笑聲)
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笑聲
14:41
OK.
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14:42
(Applause掌聲)
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掌聲
14:58
Thank you very much. Thank you.
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十分感謝,謝謝。
14:59
(Applause掌聲)
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掌聲
15:06
But now, as they say in infomercials電視購物節目,
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現在,如介紹里說得
15:09
we have something much better for you, which哪一個 we're working加工 on:
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我們有更好的東西要展示,我們現在正研究的
15:13
planes飛機 that are only six inches英寸 -- 15 centimeters公分 -- in size尺寸.
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只有6英吋-15厘米的飛機
15:18
And Matt's馬特的 plane平面 was on the cover of Popular流行 Science科學 last month,
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Matt的飛機上週是大眾科學的封面
15:24
showing展示 what this can lead to. And in a while, something this size尺寸
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展現了它的未來。很快,這個尺寸的飛機
15:28
will have GPS全球定位系統 and a video視頻 camera相機 in it. We've我們已經 had one of these fly
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就能有GPS和攝像頭了。我們曾經用這樣的飛機
15:34
nine miles英里 through通過 the air空氣 at 35 miles英里 an hour小時
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飛了9英里,時速35英里每小時
15:37
with just a little battery電池 in it.
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用一塊小電池
15:39
But there's a lot of technology技術 going.
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現在有各種技術
15:40
There are just milestones里程碑 along沿 the way of some remarkable卓越 things.
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這只是通往偉大成就路上的小里程碑
15:45
This one doesn't have the video視頻 in it,
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這架飛機沒有攝像頭
15:48
but you get a little feel from what it can do.
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但你應該能知道它是做甚麼的
15:52
OK, here we go.
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好了,起飛!
15:58
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
16:04
MKMK: Sorry.
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抱歉。。
16:05
OK.
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好的
16:06
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
16:10
PM下午: If you can pass通過 it down when you're doneDONE. Yeah, I think --
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你看完可以傳給別人看。恩,我覺得
16:14
I lost丟失 a little orientation方向; I looked看著 up into this light.
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我剛才迷失方向了,我一直看光來著,但
16:18
It hit擊中 the building建造. And the building建造 was poorly不好 placed放置, actually其實.
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它撞到房子了。房子位置不佳
16:22
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
16:24
But you're beginning開始 to see what can be doneDONE.
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大家現在可以看出來它能幹甚麼了
16:28
We're working加工 on projects項目 now -- even wing-flapping翼扇動 things
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我們目前研究很多,包括拍打翅膀的東西
16:30
the size尺寸 of hawk moths飛蛾 -- DARPADARPA contracts合同, working加工 with Caltech加州理工學院, UCLA加州大學洛杉磯分校.
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蛾子大小的,DARPA合同的,和加州理工以及UCLA合作的項目
16:36
Where all this leads引線, I don't know. Is it practical實際的? I don't know.
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它們的方向是甚麼?我不知道。實用嗎?我還不知道。
16:39
But like any basic基本 research研究, when you're really forced被迫 to do things
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和基礎研究一樣,被迫做一些
16:43
that are way beyond existing現有 technology技術,
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超越現有科技的事情
16:45
you can get there with micro-technology微技術, nanotechnology納米技術.
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你能通過微技術,Nano技術實現。
16:49
You can do amazing驚人 things when you realize實現
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只要明白自然所作的,你
16:51
what nature性質 has been doing all along沿. As you get to these small scales,
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就能完成一些奇妙的事。尺寸上的縮小,
16:54
you realize實現 we have a lot to learn學習 from nature性質 -- not with 747s --
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我們有很多要從自然學習-不是說747s-
16:58
but when you get down to the nature's大自然 realm領域,
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但當你到達自然的領域
17:01
nature性質 has 200 million百萬 years年份 of experience經驗.
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自然有超過2億年的經驗
17:04
It never makes品牌 a mistake錯誤. Because if you make a mistake錯誤,
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它不犯錯。
17:07
you don't leave離開 any progeny子孫.
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因為你犯錯不會留下後裔。
17:09
We should have nothing but success成功 stories故事 from nature性質,
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但自然沒有失敗只有成功,對於人類或者鳥類
17:12
for you or for birds鳥類, and we're learning學習 a lot
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我們正在學習自然
17:16
from its fascinating迷人 subjects主題.
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從各種吸引人的領域
17:18
In concluding結論, I want to get back to the big picture圖片
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總結一下,我想宏觀的看問題
17:24
and I have just two final最後 slides幻燈片 to try and put it in perspective透視.
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我有最後兩個幻燈片要展示 並說明一下
17:31
The first I'll just read. At last, I put in three sentences句子
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第一個我就念了。最後,我
17:35
and had it say what I wanted.
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把我要說的寫成三個句子
17:37
Over billions數十億 of years年份 on a unique獨特 sphere領域, chance機會 has painted
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幾十億年來,在這個獨一無二的星球,巧合畫出了
17:40
a thin covering覆蓋 of life -- complex複雜, improbable難以置信, wonderful精彩
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了無數生命的圖畫:複雜,意想不到,美好
17:44
and fragile脆弱. Suddenly突然, we humans人類 -- a recently最近 arrived到達 species種類,
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且脆弱。突然,我們人類,一個最近產生的種族
17:47
no longer subject學科 to the checks檢查 and balances結餘 inherent固有 in nature性質 --
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不再滿足於自然的現狀和平衡
17:51
have grown長大的 in population人口, technology技術 and intelligence情報
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人口,科技和智慧急遽增長
17:55
to a position位置 of terrible可怕 power功率. We now wield the paintbrush畫筆.
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擁有了巨大可怖的力量。我們揮舞著畫筆
17:59
And that's serious嚴重: we're not very bright. We're short on wisdom智慧;
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這很眼中。我們不聰明。我們缺乏智慧
18:03
we're high on technology技術. Where's哪裡 it going to lead?
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我們科技很強。現在將怎麼發展?
18:07
Well, inspired啟發 by the sentences句子, I decided決定 to wield the paintbrush畫筆.
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受到這段話的啓發,我決定揮舞畫筆
18:11
Every一切 25 years年份 I do a picture圖片. Here's這裡的 the one --
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每25年我畫一張圖。 這有一個
18:14
tries嘗試 to show顯示 that the world世界 isn't getting得到 any bigger.
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說明地球不再變大
18:17
Sort分類 of a timeline時間線, very non-linear非線性 scale規模, nature性質 rates利率
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一種時間線,非常不線形的刻度,自然比率。
18:21
and trilobites三葉蟲 and dinosaurs恐龍, and eventually終於 we saw some humans人類
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三葉蟲,恐龍,最後我們看到一些人類
18:25
with caves洞穴 ... Birds鳥類 were flying飛行 overhead高架, after pterosaurs翼龍.
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居住在山洞中的人。翼龍滅絕後,鳥類在飛
18:30
And then we get to the civilization文明 above以上 the little TV電視 set
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接著,我們進入了文明時代。電視機上有把槍
18:33
with a gun on it. Then traffic交通 jams果醬, and power功率 systems系統,
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交通堵塞,電力系統
18:37
and some dots for digital數字. Where it's going to lead -- I have no idea理念.
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點代表數碼。它在向哪裡去?我不知道
18:42
And so I just put robotic機器人 and natural自然 cockroaches蟑螂 out there,
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所以我畫上了機器的和自然的蟑螂
18:46
but you can fill in whatever隨你 you want. This is not a forecast預測.
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不過你業可以畫任何你想的。這不是預測
18:49
This is a warning警告, and we have to think seriously認真地 about it.
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這是一個警示。我們需要認真想想
18:53
And that time when this is happening事件 is not 100 years年份 or 500 years年份.
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這不會發生在100或者500年後
18:57
Things are going on this decade, next下一個 decade;
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是這10年或者下個十年的事情
19:03
it's a very short time that we have to decide決定 what we are going to do.
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我們有很短的時間決定向甚麼方向發展
19:08
And if we can get some agreement協議 on where we want the world世界 to be --
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如果我們能達成一致
19:12
desirable合意, sustainable可持續發展 when your kids孩子 reach達到 your age年齡 --
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我們嚮往在孩子長大時,有一個可持續,理想的世界
19:15
I think we actually其實 can reach達到 it. Now, I said this was a warning警告,
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我認為我們能做到。我說這是個警示
19:19
not a forecast預測. That was before --
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不是一個預測。因為之前
19:21
I painted this before we started開始 in on making製造 robotic機器人 versions版本
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我畫的時候,我們還沒開始造
19:26
of hawk moths飛蛾 and cockroaches蟑螂, and now I'm beginning開始 to wonder奇蹟
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機器鷹嘴和機器蟑螂。現在我想
19:30
seriously認真地 -- was this more of a forecast預測 than I wanted?
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這是個預測而不是我想要得未來?
19:32
I personally親自 think the surviving倖存 intelligent智能 life form形成 on earth地球
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我認為持續的智能生命不是碳基生命
19:35
is not going to be carbon-based碳基; it's going to be silicon-based基於矽的.
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而是硅基生命
19:39
And so where it all goes, I don't know.
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所以到底怎麼樣,我也不知道
19:45
The one final最後 bit of sparkle火花 we'll put in at the very end結束 here
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最後一個靈感小火花
19:51
is an utterly完全 impractical不切實際的 flight飛行 vehicle車輛,
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是一個非常不實際的飛行器
19:55
which哪一個 is a little ornithopter撲翼機 wing-flapping翼扇動 device設備 that --
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一個小的拍打翅膀的裝置
20:02
rubber-band橡皮筋 powered動力 -- that we'll show顯示 you.
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是橡皮筋供能的。我展示一下
20:12
MKMK: 32 gram公克. Sorry, one gram公克.
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32克。錯了,是1克
20:24
PM下午: Last night we gave it a few少數 too many許多 turns
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夠了。昨晚轉太多圈了
20:27
and it tried試著 to bash慶典 the roof屋頂 out also. It's about a gram公克.
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然後它試圖衝出房頂。這1克左右
20:32
The tube there's hollow空洞, about paper-thin薄如紙.
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管子是中空的,和紙一樣厚
20:38
And if this lands土地 on you, I assure保證 you it will not hurt傷害 you.
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如果在你身上降落,我保證不會傷害你
20:41
But if you reach達到 out to grab it or hold保持 it, you will destroy破壞 it.
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如果你去抓它,你會毀了它
20:44
So, be gentle溫和, just act法案 like a wooden Indian印度人 or something.
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所以,溫柔點。
20:49
And when it comes down -- and we'll see how it goes.
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降落時候,我們會看到效果
20:55
We consider考慮 this to be sort分類 of the spirit精神 of TEDTED.
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我把它當成一種TED的精神
21:00
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
21:05
And you wonder奇蹟, is it practical實際的? And it turns out if I had not been --
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你覺得,實用嗎?原來我沒有-
21:09
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
21:15
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
21:21
Unfortunately不幸, we have some light bulb燈泡 changes變化.
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看來我們得換燈泡了
21:24
We can probably大概 get it down,
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我們應該能把它弄下來
21:25
but it's possible可能 it's gone走了 up to a greater更大 destiny命運 up there --
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但可能它在上面是更好的命運吧
21:28
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
21:29
-- than it ever had. And I wanted to make --
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-它所能有的命運。然後我想-
21:32
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
21:35
just --
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-就-
21:36
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
21:37
But I want to make just two points. One is, you think it's frivolous輕浮;
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我想再說兩點。一,你覺得它無足輕重
21:43
there's nothing to it. And yet然而 if I had not been making製造 ornithopters撲翼
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這東西沒有甚麼意義。但是如果我沒做那樣的撲翼飛機
21:46
like that, a little bit cruder較粗略的, in 1939 -- a long, long time ago --
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稍微再簡陋一些,在1939年,很久以前
21:52
there wouldn't不會 have been a Gossamer游絲 Condor禿鷹,
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就不會有“遊絲禿鷲”
21:54
there wouldn't不會 have been an Albatross信天翁, a Solar太陽能 Challenger挑戰者,
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也不會有“信天翁”,不會有“太陽挑戰者”
21:56
there wouldn't不會 be an Impact碰撞 car汽車, there wouldn't不會 be a mandate要求
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也不會有“影響力”汽車,在加州
21:58
on zero-emission零排放 vehicles汽車 in California加州.
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也不會有汽車零排放規定
22:01
A lot of these things -- or similar類似 -- would have happened發生 some time,
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很多東西,類似的,會在某些時候發生。
22:03
probably大概 a decade later後來. I didn't realize實現 at the time
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可能十年之後。當我和團隊在做調查實踐的時候
22:06
I was doing inquiry-based探究式, hands-on動手 things with teams球隊,
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並沒有意識到
22:10
like they're trying to get in education教育 systems系統.
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就像探索改進教育系統一樣
22:13
So I think that, as a symbol符號, it's important重要.
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所以我想,作為一個標緻是重要的
22:16
And I believe that also is important重要. You can think of it
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我也相信這本身也是重要的。你可以把它
22:19
as a sort分類 of a symbol符號 for learning學習 and TEDTED
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看成是TED的一種標誌和 [不清楚]
22:26
that somehow不知何故 gets得到 you thinking思維 of technology技術 and nature性質,
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它讓人思考科技和自然
22:31
and puts看跌期權 it all together一起 in things that are --
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把它融為一體
22:34
that make this conference會議, I think, more important重要 than any
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並創造出這次會議。我想,這才是這十年 這個國家
22:36
that's taken採取 place地點 in this country國家 in this decade.
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最重要的事情。
22:39
Thank you. (Applause掌聲)
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谢谢觀賞。
Translated by Diming Yu
Reviewed by Shelley Krishna R. TSANG

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul MacCready - Engineer
Paul MacCready, an aircraft designer and environmentalist, is a pioneer of human-powered flight, alternative energy for transportation, and environmentally responsible design.

Why you should listen

Through his life, Paul MacCready turned his mind, energy and heart toward his two passions: flight and the Earth. His early training as a fighter and glider pilot (glider pilots still use the "MacCready speed ring" he developed after World War II) led him to explore nontraditional flight and nontraditional energy sources.

In the 1970s, he and his company, AeroVironment, designed and built two record-breaking human-powered planes: the Gossamer Condor, the first human-powered aircraft to complete a one-mile course set by the Kremer Prize, and the Gossamer Albatross, the first to cross the English Channel. The planes' avian names reveal the deep insight that MacCready brought to the challenge -- that large birds, in their wing shape and flying style, possess an elegant secret of flight.

He then turned his wide-ranging mind toward environmentally responsible design, informed by his belief that human expansion poses a grave threat to the natural world. His team at AeroVironment prototyped an electric car that became General Motors' pioneering EV-1. They explored alternative energy sources, including building-top wind turbines. And they developed a fleet of fascinating aircraft -- including his Helios solar-powered glider, built to fly in the very top 2 percent of Earth's atmosphere, and the 2005 Global Observer, the first unmanned plane powered by hydrogen cells.

 

More profile about the speaker
Paul MacCready | Speaker | TED.com