TED2019
Bina Venkataraman: The power to think ahead in a reckless age
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In a forward-looking talk, author Bina Venkataraman answers a pivotal question of our time: How can we secure our future and do right by future generations? She parses the mistakes we make when imagining the future of our lives, businesses and communities, revealing how we can reclaim our innate foresight. What emerges is a surprising case for hope -- and a path to becoming the "good ancestors" we long to be.
Bina Venkataraman - Writer, futurist
Bina Venkataraman is an MIT professor and author of the forthcoming book "The Optimist's Telescope." Full bio
Bina Venkataraman is an MIT professor and author of the forthcoming book "The Optimist's Telescope." Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So in the winter of 2012,
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I went to visit my grandmother's house
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in South India,
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a place, by the way,
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where the mosquitos have a special taste
for the blood of the American-born.
for the blood of the American-born.
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(Laughter)
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No joke.
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When I was there,
I got an unexpected gift.
I got an unexpected gift.
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It was this antique instrument
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made more than a century ago,
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hand-carved from a rare wood,
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inlaid with pearls
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and with dozens of metal strings.
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It's a family heirloom,
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a link between my past,
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the country where my parents were born,
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and the future,
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the unknown places I'll take it.
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I didn't actually realize it
at the time I got it,
at the time I got it,
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but it would later become
a powerful metaphor for my work.
a powerful metaphor for my work.
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We all know the saying,
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"There's no time like the present."
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But nowadays, it can feel
like there's no time but the present.
like there's no time but the present.
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What's immediate and ephemeral
seems to dominate our lives,
seems to dominate our lives,
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our economy and our politics.
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It's so easy to get caught up
in the number of steps we took today
in the number of steps we took today
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or the latest tweet
from a high-profile figure.
from a high-profile figure.
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It's easy for businesses to get caught up
in making immediate profits
in making immediate profits
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and neglect what's good
for future invention.
for future invention.
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And it's far too easy
for governments to stand by
for governments to stand by
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while fisheries and farmland are depleted
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instead of conserved
to feed future generations.
to feed future generations.
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I have a feeling that, at this rate,
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it's going to be hard for our generation
to be remembered as good ancestors.
to be remembered as good ancestors.
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If you think about it,
our species evolved to think ahead,
our species evolved to think ahead,
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to chart the stars,
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dream of the afterlife,
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sow seeds for later harvest.
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Some scientists call this superpower
that we have "mental time travel,"
that we have "mental time travel,"
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and it's responsible for pretty much
everything we call human civilization,
everything we call human civilization,
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from farming to the Magna Carta
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to the internet --
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all first conjured in the minds of humans.
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But let's get real:
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if we look around us today,
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we don't exactly seem to be
using this superpower quite enough,
using this superpower quite enough,
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and that begs the question: Why not?
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What's wrong is how our communities,
businesses and institutions are designed.
businesses and institutions are designed.
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They're designed in a way
that's impairing our foresight.
that's impairing our foresight.
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I want to talk to you
about the three key mistakes
about the three key mistakes
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that I think we're making.
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The first mistake is what we measure.
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When we look at the quarterly
profits of a company
profits of a company
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or its near-term stock price,
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that's often not a great measure
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of whether that company
is going to grow its market share
is going to grow its market share
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or be inventive in the long run.
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When we glue ourselves to the test scores
that kids bring back from school,
that kids bring back from school,
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that's not necessarily
what's great for those kids' learning
what's great for those kids' learning
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and curiosity in the long run.
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We're not measuring
what really matters in the future.
what really matters in the future.
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The second mistake we're making
that impairs our foresight
that impairs our foresight
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is what we reward.
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When we celebrate a political leader
or a business leader
or a business leader
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for the disaster she just cleaned up
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or the announcement she just made,
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we're not motivating that leader
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to invest in preventing
those disasters in the first place,
those disasters in the first place,
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or to put down payments on the future
by protecting communities from floods
by protecting communities from floods
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or fighting inequality
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or investing in research and education.
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The third mistake
that impairs our foresight
that impairs our foresight
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is what we fail to imagine.
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Now, when we do think about the future,
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we tend to focus
on predicting exactly what's next,
on predicting exactly what's next,
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whether we're using horoscopes
or algorithms to do that.
or algorithms to do that.
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But we spend a lot less time imagining
all the possibilities the future holds.
all the possibilities the future holds.
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When the Ebola outbreak
emerged in 2014 in West Africa,
emerged in 2014 in West Africa,
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public health officials around the world
had early warning signs
had early warning signs
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and predictive tools
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that showed how
that outbreak might spread,
that outbreak might spread,
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but they failed to fathom that it would,
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and they failed to act
in time to intervene,
in time to intervene,
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and the epidemic grew
to kill more than 11,000 people.
to kill more than 11,000 people.
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When people with lots of resources
and good forecasts
and good forecasts
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don't prepare for deadly hurricanes,
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they're often failing to imagine
how dangerous they can be.
how dangerous they can be.
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Now, none of these mistakes
that I've described,
that I've described,
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as dismal as they might sound,
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are inevitable.
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In fact, they're all avoidable.
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What we need to make
better decisions about the future
better decisions about the future
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are tools that can aid our foresight,
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tools that can help us think ahead.
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Think of these as something
like the telescopes
like the telescopes
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that ship captains of yore used
when they scanned the horizon.
when they scanned the horizon.
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Only instead of for looking
across distance and the ocean,
across distance and the ocean,
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these tools are for looking
across time to the future.
across time to the future.
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I want to share with you a
few of the tools
few of the tools
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that I've found in my research
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that I think can help us with foresight.
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The first tool I want to share with you
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I think of as making
the long game pay now.
the long game pay now.
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This is Wes Jackson, a farmer
I spent some time with in Kansas.
I spent some time with in Kansas.
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And Jackson knows
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that the way that most crops
are grown around the world today
are grown around the world today
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is stripping the earth
of the fertile topsoil
of the fertile topsoil
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we need to feed future generations.
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He got together
with a group of scientists,
with a group of scientists,
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and they bred perennial grain crops
which have deep roots
which have deep roots
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that anchor the fertile topsoil of a farm,
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preventing erosion
and protecting future harvests.
and protecting future harvests.
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But they also knew
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that in order to get farmers
to grow these crops in the short run,
to grow these crops in the short run,
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they needed to boost
the annual yields of the crops
the annual yields of the crops
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and find companies willing
to make cereal and beer using the grains
to make cereal and beer using the grains
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so that farmers could reap profits today
by doing what's good for tomorrow.
by doing what's good for tomorrow.
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And this is a tried-and-true strategy.
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In fact, it was used
by George Washington Carver
by George Washington Carver
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in the South of the United States
after the Civil War
after the Civil War
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in the early 20th century.
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A lot of people have probably heard
of Carver's 300 uses for the peanut,
of Carver's 300 uses for the peanut,
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the products and recipes
that he came up with
that he came up with
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that made the peanut so popular.
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But not everyone knows
why Carver did that.
why Carver did that.
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He was trying to help
poor Alabama sharecroppers
poor Alabama sharecroppers
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whose cotton yields were declining,
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and he knew that planting
peanuts in their fields
peanuts in their fields
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would replenish those soils
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so that their cotton yields
would be better a few years later.
would be better a few years later.
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But he also knew it needed
to be lucrative for them in the short run.
to be lucrative for them in the short run.
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Alright, so let's talk
about another tool for foresight.
about another tool for foresight.
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This one I like to think of
as keeping the memory of the past alive
as keeping the memory of the past alive
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to help us imagine the future.
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So I went to Fukushima, Japan
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on the sixth anniversary
of the nuclear reactor disaster there
of the nuclear reactor disaster there
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that followed the Tohoku earthquake
and tsunami of 2011.
and tsunami of 2011.
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When I was there, I learned
about the Onagawa Nuclear Power Station,
about the Onagawa Nuclear Power Station,
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which was even closer
to the epicenter of that earthquake
to the epicenter of that earthquake
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than the infamous Fukushima Daiichi
that we all know about.
that we all know about.
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In Onagawa, people in the city
actually fled to the nuclear power plant
actually fled to the nuclear power plant
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as a place of refuge.
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It was that safe.
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It was spared by the tsunamis.
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It was the foresight of just one engineer,
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Yanosuke Hirai,
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that made that happen.
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In the 1960s, he fought
to build that power plant
to build that power plant
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farther back from the coast
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at higher elevation
and with a higher sea wall.
and with a higher sea wall.
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He knew the story of his hometown shrine,
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which had flooded
in the year 869 after a tsunami.
in the year 869 after a tsunami.
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It was his knowledge of history
that allowed him to imagine
that allowed him to imagine
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what others could not.
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OK, one more tool of foresight.
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This one I think of
as creating shared heirlooms.
as creating shared heirlooms.
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These are lobster fishermen
on the Pacific coast of Mexico,
on the Pacific coast of Mexico,
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and they're the ones who taught me this.
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They have protected
their lobster harvest there
their lobster harvest there
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for nearly a century,
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and they've done that
by treating it as a shared resource
by treating it as a shared resource
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that they're passing on to their collected
children and grandchildren.
children and grandchildren.
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They carefully measure what they catch
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so that they're not taking
the breeding lobster out of the ocean.
the breeding lobster out of the ocean.
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Across North America,
there are more than 30 fisheries
there are more than 30 fisheries
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that are doing something
vaguely similar to this.
vaguely similar to this.
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They're creating long-term stakes
in the fisheries known as catch shares
in the fisheries known as catch shares
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which get fishermen to be motivated
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not just in taking whatever they can
from the ocean today
from the ocean today
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but in its long-term survival.
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Now there are many,
many more tools of foresight
many more tools of foresight
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I would love to share with you,
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and they come from all kinds of places:
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investment firms that look
beyond near-term stock prices,
beyond near-term stock prices,
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states that have freed their elections
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from the immediate interests
of campaign financiers.
of campaign financiers.
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And we're going to need to marshal
as many of these tools as we can
as many of these tools as we can
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if we want to rethink what we measure,
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change what we reward
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and be brave enough
to imagine what lies ahead.
to imagine what lies ahead.
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Not all this is going to be easy,
as you can imagine.
as you can imagine.
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Some of these tools
we can pick up in our own lives,
we can pick up in our own lives,
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some we're going to need to do
in businesses or in communities,
in businesses or in communities,
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and some we need to do as a society.
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The future is worth this effort.
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My own inspiration to keep up this effort
is the instrument I shared with you.
is the instrument I shared with you.
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It's called a dilruba,
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and it was custom-made
for my great-grandfather.
for my great-grandfather.
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He was a well-known
music and art critic in India
music and art critic in India
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in the early 20th century.
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My great-grandfather had the foresight
to protect this instrument
to protect this instrument
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at a time when my great-grandmother
was pawning off all their belongings,
was pawning off all their belongings,
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but that's another story.
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He protected it by giving it
to the next generation,
to the next generation,
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by giving it to my grandmother,
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and she gave it to me.
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When I first heard
the sound of this instrument,
the sound of this instrument,
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it haunted me.
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It felt like hearing a wanderer
in the Himalayan fog.
in the Himalayan fog.
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It felt like hearing
a voice from the past.
a voice from the past.
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(Music)
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(Music ends)
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That's my friend Simran Singh
playing the dilruba.
playing the dilruba.
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When I play it, it sounds
like a cat's dying somewhere,
like a cat's dying somewhere,
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so you're welcome.
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(Laughter)
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This instrument is in my home today,
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but it doesn't actually belong to me.
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It's my role to shepherd it in time,
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and that feels more meaningful to me
than just owning it for today.
than just owning it for today.
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This instrument positions me
as both a descendant and an ancestor.
as both a descendant and an ancestor.
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It makes me feel part of a story
bigger than my own.
bigger than my own.
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And this, I believe,
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is the single most powerful way
we can reclaim foresight:
we can reclaim foresight:
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by seeing ourselves
as the good ancestors we long to be,
as the good ancestors we long to be,
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ancestors not just to our own children
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but to all humanity.
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Whatever your heirloom is,
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however big or small,
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protect it
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and know that its music
can resonate for generations.
can resonate for generations.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bina Venkataraman - Writer, futuristBina Venkataraman is an MIT professor and author of the forthcoming book "The Optimist's Telescope."
Why you should listen
For more than six years, Bina Venkataraman has been traveling around the world studying how people and communities think about the future. Her curiosity as a former journalist, and her firsthand experience in the Obama White House, led her to question whether the shortsightedness rampant in today's societies is inevitable -- or actually "a choice we're making."
During the Obama years, Venkataraman built partnerships among communities, companies and government to prepare for coming pandemics, wildfires and rising seas. In 2014, she launched the White House Climate Data Initiative to bring actionable climate science to people making decisions around the globe. Previously, she was a science journalist for the New York Times and the Boston Globe. Now, she teaches students at MIT to use scientific knowledge in service of society.
As Venkataraman writes: "For as long as I can remember, I have suspected that the future of humanity depended on the future of the planet. I have since found this to be the most compelling story of our time. As I imagine what lies in our shared future, from gene-editing to the climate crisis, I see both dangers and extraordinary potential."
Venkataraman wrote her first book, The Optimist's Telescope (to be published by Riverhead on August 27, 2019), to help people today better shape their own future and that of coming generations.
Bina Venkataraman | Speaker | TED.com