ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Geoffrey West - Theorist
Physicist Geoffrey West believes that complex systems from organisms to cities are in many ways governed by simple laws -- laws that can be discovered and analyzed.

Why you should listen

Trained as a theoretical physicist, Geoffrey West has turned his analytical mind toward the inner workings of more concrete things, like ... animals. In a paper for Science in 1997, he and his team uncovered what he sees as a surprisingly universal law of biology — the way in which heart rate, size and energy consumption are related, consistently, across most living animals. (Though not all animals: “There are always going to be people who say, ‘What about the crayfish?’ " he says. “Well, what about it? Every fundamental law has exceptions. But you still need the law or else all you have is observations that don’t make sense.")

A past president of the multidisciplinary Santa Fe Institute (after decades working  in high-energy physics at Los Alamos and Stanford), West now studies the behavior and development of cities. In his newest work, he proposes that one simple number, population, can predict a stunning array of details about any city, from crime rate to economic activity. It's all about the plumbing, he says, the infrastructure that powers growth or dysfunction. His next target for study: corporations.

He says: "Focusing on the differences [between cities] misses the point. Sure, there are differences, but different from what? We’ve found the what."

More profile about the speaker
Geoffrey West | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2011

Geoffrey West: The surprising math of cities and corporations

Geoffrey West:城市与企业中的奇妙数学

Filmed:
1,583,030 views

物理学家Geoffrey West发现,简单的数学定律治理着城市的各种属性--财富,犯罪率,步行速度以及城市的其它方方面面都可由一个数字推算出来:即城市的人口。他通过展示其中的原理,阐述生物与企业拥有的相似定律,让这场TED全球演讲颠覆了人们思想。
- Theorist
Physicist Geoffrey West believes that complex systems from organisms to cities are in many ways governed by simple laws -- laws that can be discovered and analyzed. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
Cities城市 are the crucible of civilization文明.
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城市是文明的熔炉
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They have been expanding扩大,
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它们一直在扩张
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urbanization城市化 has been expanding扩大,
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城市化的扩张速度
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at an exponential指数 rate in the last 200 years年份
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在过去的200年里变得越来越快
00:25
so that by the second第二 part部分 of this century世纪,
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到了本世纪下半叶
00:28
the planet行星 will be completely全然 dominated占主导地位
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整个地球都将被城市
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by cities城市.
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所主宰
00:33
Cities城市 are the origins起源 of global全球 warming变暖,
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城市是全球变暖的源头
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impact碰撞 on the environment环境,
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影响着环境
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health健康, pollution污染, disease疾病,
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卫生 污染 疾病
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finance金融,
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金融
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economies经济, energy能源 --
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经济 能源--
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they're all problems问题
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这些问题
00:48
that are confronted面对 by having cities城市.
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都是由城市引起的
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That's where all these problems问题 come from.
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这是所有这些问题的源头
00:52
And the tsunami海啸 of problems问题 that we feel we're facing面对
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我们感觉可持续性方面的问题
00:55
in terms条款 of sustainability可持续性 questions问题
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正如海啸般扑面而来
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are actually其实 a reflection反射
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而这些问题实际上
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of the exponential指数 increase增加
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是与日俱增的
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in urbanization城市化 across横过 the planet行星.
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全球城市化进程所产生的效应
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Here's这里的 some numbers数字.
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我们来看几个数字
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Two hundred years年份 ago, the United联合的 States状态
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200年前 美国
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was less than a few少数 percent百分 urbanized城市化.
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城市化程度不到百分之几而已
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It's now more than 82 percent百分.
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而现在则超过了82%
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The planet行星 has crossed越过 the halfway mark标记 a few少数 years年份 ago.
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全球的城市化程度在几年前就超过了百分之五十
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China's中国的 building建造 300 new cities城市
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中国在将来的20年内
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in the next下一个 20 years年份.
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建设300座新城市
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Now listen to this:
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请注意
01:21
Every一切 week for the foreseeable可预见的 future未来,
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在将来的每一周
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until直到 2050,
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一直到2050年
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every一切 week more than a million百万 people
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每一周 将有100万人
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are being存在 added添加 to our cities城市.
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进入我们的城市
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This is going to affect影响 everything.
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这将对一切产生影响
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Everybody每个人 in this room房间, if you stay alive,
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在座的各位 如果你一直活着
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is going to be affected受影响
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你就必定要受到
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by what's happening事件 in cities城市
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城市化所带来的
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in this extraordinary非凡 phenomenon现象.
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翻天覆地的影响
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However然而, cities城市,
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然而 城市
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despite尽管 having this negative aspect方面 to them,
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尽管存在负面效应
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are also the solution.
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但城市也是问题解决的出路
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Because cities城市 are the vacuum真空 cleaners清洁工 and the magnets磁铁
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这是因为城市是除尘器和吸铁石
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that have sucked up creative创作的 people,
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吸纳了所有创意人才
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creating创建 ideas思路, innovation革新,
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创造着思想 革新
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wealth财富 and so on.
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财富等等
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So we have this kind of dual nature性质.
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我们具有这样的双面性
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And so there's an urgent紧急 need
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我们迫切需要运用
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for a scientific科学 theory理论 of cities城市.
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城市的科学原理
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Now these are my comrades同志 in arms武器.
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这些是我全副武装的同志们
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This work has been doneDONE with an extraordinary非凡 group of people,
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这群杰出的人士做了这些工作
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and they've他们已经 doneDONE all the work,
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都是他们的功劳
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and I'm the great bullshitterbullshitter
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我只会胡吹海侃
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that tries尝试 to bring带来 it all together一起.
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做个总体介绍
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(Laughter笑声)
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(众人笑)
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So here's这里的 the problem问题: This is what we all want.
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这里有个问题 这是我们希望的结果
02:22
The 10 billion十亿 people on the planet行星 in 2050
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到了2050年,地球上的10亿人
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want to live生活 in places地方 like this,
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都想生活在这样的地方
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having things like this,
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拥有这些东西
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doing things like this,
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进行这样的活动
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with economies经济 that are growing生长 like this,
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在这样的经济增长情况下
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not realizing实现 that entropy
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而没有意识到
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produces产生 things like this,
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人口过剩会造成这样
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this, this
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这样 这样
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and this.
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和这样的情况
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And the question is:
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问题是
02:46
Is that what Edinburgh爱丁堡 and London伦敦 and New York纽约
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爱丁堡 伦敦和纽约
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are going to look like in 2050,
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到了2050年会变成这样
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or is it going to be this?
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还是这样
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That's the question.
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这是个问题
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I must必须 say, many许多 of the indicators指标
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我不得不说 许多这样的参数
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look like this is what it's going to look like,
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似乎更可能是它们将来的样子
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but let's talk about it.
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我们来探讨一下
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So my provocative挑衅 statement声明
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我敢大胆地说
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is that we desperately拼命 need a serious严重 scientific科学 theory理论 of cities城市.
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我们急需一个严谨的城市科学理论
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And scientific科学 theory理论 means手段 quantifiable量化 --
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科学理论意味着它是可量化的
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relying依托 on underlying底层 generic通用 principles原则
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依据基本的普遍原理
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that can be made制作 into a predictive预测 framework骨架.
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我们能够推导出一个可预见的结构
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That's the quest寻求.
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这是我们的目标
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Is that conceivable可以想象?
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这可能吗
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Are there universal普遍 laws法律?
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有这样的普遍定律吗
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So here's这里的 two questions问题
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每当我思考这个问题
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that I have in my head when I think about this problem问题.
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两个疑问一直在我脑子里打转
03:26
The first is:
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第一
03:28
Are cities城市 part部分 of biology生物学?
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城市是生物界的一部分吗
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Is London伦敦 a great big whale?
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伦敦是一只大鲸鱼吗
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Is Edinburgh爱丁堡 a horse?
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爱丁堡是一匹马吗
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Is Microsoft微软 a great big anthill?
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微软是一座巨型蚁山吗
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What do we learn学习 from that?
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我们从中能得到什么启发
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We use them metaphorically比喻 --
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我们可以使用比喻
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the DNA脱氧核糖核酸 of a company公司, the metabolism代谢 of a city, and so on --
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一个公司的DNA 一个城市的新陈代谢 等等
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is that just bullshit废话, metaphorical隐喻 bullshit废话,
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这些都是胡扯 乱七八糟的比喻
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or is there serious严重 substance物质 to it?
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还是有严谨的依据
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And if that is the case案件,
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如果确有依据
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how come that it's very hard to kill a city?
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为什么城市总是生生不息呢
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You could drop下降 an atom原子 bomb炸弹 on a city,
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你可以扔一个原子弹炸毁一个城市
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and 30 years年份 later后来 it's surviving幸存.
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而30年之后 它依然存在
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Very few少数 cities城市 fail失败.
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消亡的城市寥寥无几
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All companies公司 die, all companies公司.
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而所有公司都会关门 无一例外
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And if you have a serious严重 theory理论, you should be able能够 to predict预测
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如果你掌握了缜密的原理 你就应该可以预测
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when Google谷歌 is going to go bust胸围.
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谷歌什么时候关门大吉
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So is that just another另一个 version
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这是不是
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of this?
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这个画面的翻版
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Well we understand理解 this very well.
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我们对此非常清楚
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That is, you ask any generic通用 question about this --
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如果你随便问一个常识问题
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how many许多 trees树木 of a given特定 size尺寸,
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某已知体积的大树有多少棵
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how many许多 branches分支机构 of a given特定 size尺寸 does a tree have,
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一颗体积已知的大树有多少分枝
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how many许多 leaves树叶,
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多少树叶
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what is the energy能源 flowing流动 through通过 each branch,
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每根树枝中流动的能量是什么
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what is the size尺寸 of the canopy华盖,
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树冠有多大
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what is its growth发展, what is its mortality死亡?
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它长势如何 寿命多长
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We have a mathematical数学的 framework骨架
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我们有一套数学体系
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based基于 on generic通用 universal普遍 principles原则
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建立在普遍原理的基础上
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that can answer回答 those questions问题.
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它能够解答那些问题
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And the idea理念 is can we do the same相同 for this?
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问题是 它是否适用于城市
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So the route路线 in is recognizing认识
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首先我们要认识到
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one of the most extraordinary非凡 things about life,
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生命最奇妙之处 其中之一
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is that it is scalable可扩展性,
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就是它是会长大的
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it works作品 over an extraordinary非凡 range范围.
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它能够长到非常之大
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This is just a tiny range范围 actually其实:
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这只是很小的一个尺度
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It's us mammals哺乳动物;
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这是我们 哺乳动物
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we're one of these.
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我们是其中之一
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The same相同 principles原则, the same相同 dynamics动力学,
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相同的原理 相同的活动
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the same相同 organization组织 is at work
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相同的组织 在所有这些动物中
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in all of these, including包含 us,
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发挥着作用 我们也包括在内
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and it can scale规模 over a range范围 of 100 million百万 in size尺寸.
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它能够长大到一亿个单位
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And that is one of the main主要 reasons原因
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生命如此周而复始 欣欣向荣
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life is so resilient弹性 and robust强大的 --
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这就是原因之一
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scalability可扩展性.
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伸展性
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We're going to discuss讨论 that in a moment时刻 more.
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我们一会再讨论这个
05:14
But you know, at a local本地 level水平,
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从我们自身出发
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you scale规模; everybody每个人 in this room房间 is scaled缩放.
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你会长大 在座所有人的身体都长大了
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That's called growth发展.
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这就是成长
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Here's这里的 how you grew成长.
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你就是这么成长的
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Rat, that's a rat -- could have been you.
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这是一只老鼠 也可以是你
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We're all pretty漂亮 much the same相同.
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我们之间非常相似
05:27
And you see, you're very familiar with this.
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你们可以看到 你的情况与之十分相似
05:29
You grow增长 very quickly很快 and then you stop.
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你长得很快 接着停止生长
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And that line线 there
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上面的那条线
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is a prediction预测 from the same相同 theory理论,
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是同一理论推导出来的
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based基于 on the same相同 principles原则,
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所依据的原理
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that describes介绍 that forest森林.
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与描述森林的原理相同
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And here it is for the growth发展 of a rat,
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这显示的是老鼠的生长情况
05:41
and those points on there are data数据 points.
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上面的点是数据点
05:43
This is just the weight重量 versus the age年龄.
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即体重与年龄的比例
05:45
And you see, it stops停止 growing生长.
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你看 它停止生长了
05:47
Very, very good for biology生物学 --
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这对生物界非常有益
05:49
also one of the reasons原因 for its great resilience弹性.
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这也证明了其强大的伸展性
05:51
Very, very bad
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但对我们目前规划中的
05:53
for economies经济 and companies公司 and cities城市
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经济 公司和城市而而言
05:55
in our present当下 paradigm范例.
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这是非常糟糕的
05:57
This is what we believe.
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我们就是这么认为的
05:59
This is what our whole整个 economy经济
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这就是我们的经济
06:01
is thrusting推力 upon us,
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强加给我们的
06:03
particularly尤其 illustrated插图 in that left-hand左手 corner:
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左上角的图表凸显了这一点
06:06
hockey曲棍球 sticks.
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冰球棍
06:08
This is a bunch of software软件 companies公司 --
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它显示的是众多软件公司
06:10
and what it is is their revenue收入 versus their age年龄 --
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收入与公司建立时间的比例
06:12
all zooming缩放 away,
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它们都平步青云
06:14
and everybody每个人 making制造 millions百万 and billions数十亿 of dollars美元.
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每家公司都大把大把地捞钱
06:16
Okay, so how do we understand理解 this?
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那么 我们如何解读
06:19
So let's first talk about biology生物学.
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我们先来讨论一下生物学
06:22
This is explicitly明确地 showing展示 you
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这让你清清楚楚地看到
06:24
how things scale规模,
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事物的规模是如何增大的
06:26
and this is a truly remarkable卓越 graph图形.
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这幅图表意义非凡
06:28
What is plotted绘制 here is metabolic新陈代谢 rate --
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上面显示的是新陈代谢率
06:31
how much energy能源 you need per day to stay alive --
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为维持生命你每天需要摄入的能量
06:34
versus your weight重量, your mass,
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比上你的体重
06:36
for all of us bunch of organisms生物.
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这适用于人类以及许多其它生物
06:39
And it's plotted绘制 in this funny滑稽 way by going up by factors因素 of 10,
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它的结构很有意思 以10倍递进
06:42
otherwise除此以外 you couldn't不能 get everything on the graph图形.
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否则你无法看到全局
06:44
And what you see if you plot情节 it
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在这样一个有意思的图标中
06:46
in this slightly curious好奇 way
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你可以看到
06:48
is that everybody每个人 lies on the same相同 line线.
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每个人都落在了同一条线上
06:51
Despite尽管 the fact事实 that this is the most complex复杂 and diverse多种 system系统
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尽管这是宇宙中
06:54
in the universe宇宙,
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最为纷繁复杂的系统
06:57
there's an extraordinary非凡 simplicity简单
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但它显示了一个
06:59
being存在 expressed表达 by this.
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极为简单现象
07:01
It's particularly尤其 astonishing惊人
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这令人震惊
07:04
because each one of these organisms生物,
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这上面的每个物种
07:06
each subsystem子系统, each cell细胞 type类型, each gene基因,
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每个子系统 每个细胞种类 每个基因
07:08
has evolved进化 in its own拥有 unique独特 environmental环境的 niche壁龛
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都在其独特的生态位和历史中
07:12
with its own拥有 unique独特 history历史.
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得到进化发展
07:15
And yet然而, despite尽管 all of that Darwinian达尔文 evolution演化
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然而 即使经过了达尔文派支持的进化论
07:18
and natural自然 selection选择,
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和自然选择
07:20
they've他们已经 been constrained受限 to lie谎言 on a line线.
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它们最终还是集中到了一条线上
07:22
Something else其他 is going on.
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还有其它力量在发挥作用
07:24
Before I talk about that,
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谈到这之前
07:26
I've written书面 down at the bottom底部 there
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我在底下标出了
07:28
the slope of this curve曲线, this straight直行 line线.
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这条曲线的斜率 即这条直线
07:30
It's three-quarters四分之三, roughly大致,
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大约为3比4
07:32
which哪一个 is less than one -- and we call that sublinear次线性.
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小于1 呈“次线性”
07:35
And here's这里的 the point of that.
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这里有一点值得注意
07:37
It says that, if it were linear线性,
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当最大斜率
07:40
the steepest最陡 slope,
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呈线性
07:42
then doubling加倍 the size尺寸
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那么当体型翻倍
07:44
you would require要求 double the amount of energy能源.
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所需能量也随之翻倍
07:46
But it's sublinear次线性, and what that translates转换 into
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而若呈次线性 情况则是
07:49
is that, if you double the size尺寸 of the organism生物,
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当生物的体型翻倍
07:51
you actually其实 only need 75 percent百分 more energy能源.
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它实际只需增加75%的能量
07:54
So a wonderful精彩 thing about all of biology生物学
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生物的奇妙之处就在于
07:56
is that it expresses表达 an extraordinary非凡 economy经济 of scale规模.
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它巧妙地展现了经济的伸展能力
07:59
The bigger you are systematically系统,
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根据准确定义的规律
08:01
according根据 to very well-defined明确 rules规则,
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一个系统越大
08:03
less energy能源 per capita人头.
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其所需的平均能力越少
08:06
Now any physiological生理 variable变量 you can think of,
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你能够想到的任何变量
08:09
any life history历史 event事件 you can think of,
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任何历史事件
08:11
if you plot情节 it this way, looks容貌 like this.
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只要你照着这样制表 都会得到相似的图形
08:14
There is an extraordinary非凡 regularity规律性.
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其一致性非常惊人
08:16
So you tell me the size尺寸 of a mammal哺乳动物,
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只要你说出一种哺乳动物的体型
08:18
I can tell you at the 90 percent百分 level水平 everything about it
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我就能告诉你关于其生理和生命周期等情况
08:21
in terms条款 of its physiology生理, life history历史, etc等等.
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正确率90%
08:25
And the reason原因 for this is because of networks网络.
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原因就在于网络
08:28
All of life is controlled受控 by networks网络 --
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所有生命都由网络所控制
08:31
from the intracellular细胞内 through通过 the multicellular
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不论是单细胞还是多细胞生物
08:33
through通过 the ecosystem生态系统 level水平.
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整个生态系统都是如此
08:35
And you're very familiar with these networks网络.
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你对这些网络并不陌生
08:39
That's a little thing that lives生活 inside an elephant.
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这是生长在大象体内的一种小生物
08:42
And here's这里的 the summary概要 of what I'm saying.
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这是我讲话内容的总结
08:45
If you take those networks网络,
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你有了这些网络
08:47
this idea理念 of networks网络,
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网络的概念
08:49
and you apply应用 universal普遍 principles原则,
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再用上普遍原理
08:51
mathematizablemathematizable, universal普遍 principles原则,
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数学化的普遍原理
08:53
all of these scalings定标
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所有规模增长
08:55
and all of these constraints限制 follow跟随,
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所有限制因素
08:58
including包含 the description描述 of the forest森林,
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包括森林的情况
09:00
the description描述 of your circulatory循环系统 system系统,
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你循环系统的情况
09:02
the description描述 within cells细胞.
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细胞内部情况等
09:04
One of the things I did not stress强调 in that introduction介绍
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我在介绍中没有提及的一点是
09:07
was that, systematically系统, the pace步伐 of life
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生长的节奏会随着你体型的增大
09:10
decreases降低 as you get bigger.
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而系统性地减缓
09:12
Heart rates利率 are slower比较慢; you live生活 longer;
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心率会减缓 你活得更久
09:15
diffusion扩散 of oxygen and resources资源
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通过细胞膜的氧气
09:17
across横过 membranes is slower比较慢, etc等等.
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和物质的流动减缓
09:19
The question is: Is any of this true真正
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问题是 这是否
09:21
for cities城市 and companies公司?
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也适用于城市和企业
09:24
So is London伦敦 a scaled缩放 up Birmingham伯明翰,
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伦敦是否是长大了的伯明翰
09:27
which哪一个 is a scaled缩放 up Brighton布莱顿, etc等等., etc等等.?
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而伯明翰是否是长大了的布莱顿 等等
09:30
Is New York纽约 a scaled缩放 up San Francisco弗朗西斯科,
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纽约是否是长大了的旧金山
09:32
which哪一个 is a scaled缩放 up Santa圣诞老人 Fe?
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而旧金山是否是长大了的圣达菲
09:34
Don't know. We will discuss讨论 that.
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不知道 我们稍候再讨论
09:36
But they are networks网络,
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但它们都是网络
09:38
and the most important重要 network网络 of cities城市
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而城市最重要的网络
09:40
is you.
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就是你
09:42
Cities城市 are just a physical物理 manifestation表现
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城市只是
09:45
of your interactions互动,
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你我社会活动
09:47
our interactions互动,
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以及个体相互聚拢集合的
09:49
and the clustering集群 and grouping分组 of individuals个人.
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物质表现
09:51
Here's这里的 just a symbolic象征 picture图片 of that.
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这只是一张简易图表
09:54
And here's这里的 scaling缩放 of cities城市.
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这是城市规模的扩大
09:56
This shows节目 that in this very simple简单 example,
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这幅图显示出了一个非常简单的例子
09:59
which哪一个 happens发生 to be a mundane平凡 example
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这例子很寻常
10:01
of number of petrol汽油 stations
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加油站的数量
10:03
as a function功能 of size尺寸 --
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作为规模
10:05
plotted绘制 in the same相同 way as the biology生物学 --
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按照同于生物的方法制表
10:07
you see exactly究竟 the same相同 kind of thing.
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你能够观察到一模一样的结果
10:09
There is a scaling缩放.
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上面显示了增长的趋势
10:11
That is that the number of petrol汽油 stations in the city
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你告诉我城市的规模
10:15
is now given特定 to you
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我就能够说出
10:17
when you tell me its size尺寸.
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这座城市有多少个加油站
10:19
The slope of that is less than linear线性.
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斜率呈次线性
10:22
There is an economy经济 of scale规模.
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这是规模经济
10:24
Less petrol汽油 stations per capita人头 the bigger you are -- not surprising奇怪.
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城市越大 人均加油站数量就越小 并不稀奇
10:27
But here's这里的 what's surprising奇怪.
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稀奇的在这里
10:29
It scales in the same相同 way everywhere到处.
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增长的规律在哪里都适用
10:31
This is just European欧洲的 countries国家,
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这反映的只是欧洲国家的情况
10:33
but you do it in Japan日本 or China中国 or Colombia哥伦比亚,
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但如果你用同样的方法观察日本 中国或哥伦比亚
10:36
always the same相同
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结果都是一样的
10:38
with the same相同 kind of economy经济 of scale规模
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同样的规模经济
10:40
to the same相同 degree.
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同样的水平
10:42
And any infrastructure基础设施 you look at --
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而且 你看到的所有基础设施
10:45
whether是否 it's the length长度 of roads道路, length长度 of electrical电动 lines线 --
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不论是道路还是电线的长度
10:48
anything you look at
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不论是什么
10:50
has the same相同 economy经济 of scale规模 scaling缩放 in the same相同 way.
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都存在增长模式相同的规模经济
10:53
It's an integrated集成 system系统
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这个综合体系
10:55
that has evolved进化 despite尽管 all the planning规划 and so on.
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不停演进 无论如何规划都是如此
10:58
But even more surprising奇怪
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而当你看到
11:00
is if you look at socio-economic社会经济 quantities数量,
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社会经济数量
11:02
quantities数量 that have no analog类似物 in biology生物学,
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即八千到一万年前
11:05
that have evolved进化 when we started开始 forming成型 communities社区
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我们开始建立社区时的社会经济数量
11:08
eight to 10,000 years年份 ago.
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你们会感到更加意外
11:10
The top最佳 one is wages工资 as a function功能 of size尺寸
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上图以工资作为规模参数
11:12
plotted绘制 in the same相同 way.
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同理制表
11:14
And the bottom底部 one is you lot --
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而下面的是“你”
11:16
super-creatives超创意 plotted绘制 in the same相同 way.
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也就是超级智能人 同理制表
11:19
And what you see
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上面显示出
11:21
is a scaling缩放 phenomenon现象.
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一个规模增长的现象
11:23
But most important重要 in this,
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但图上最重要的是
11:25
the exponent指数, the analog类似物 to that three-quarters四分之三
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新陈代谢率的幂
11:27
for the metabolic新陈代谢 rate,
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近似于三分之四
11:29
is bigger than one -- it's about 1.15 to 1.2.
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大于1 大约在1.15和1.2之间
11:31
Here it is,
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意思是
11:33
which哪一个 says that the bigger you are
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规模越大
11:36
the more you have per capita人头, unlike不像 biology生物学 --
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人均数就越多 与生物学的情况相反
11:39
higher更高 wages工资, more super-creative超创意 people per capita人头 as you get bigger,
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工资越高 就有越多的超级智能人出现
11:43
more patents专利 per capita人头, more crime犯罪 per capita人头.
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人均专利和犯罪率越高
11:46
And we've我们已经 looked看着 at everything:
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我们研究了所有事物
11:48
more AIDS艾滋病 cases, flu流感, etc等等.
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艾滋病病例 流感等等
11:51
And here, they're all plotted绘制 together一起.
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把这些都放在一起制成表
11:53
Just to show显示 you what we plotted绘制,
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让你们看到
11:55
here is income收入, GDPGDP --
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我们把收入 GDP
11:58
GDPGDP of the city --
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城市的GDP
12:00
crime犯罪 and patents专利 all on one graph图形.
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犯罪和专利都放在一张图上
12:02
And you can see, they all follow跟随 the same相同 line线.
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你们可以看到
12:04
And here's这里的 the statement声明.
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下面是图的表述
12:06
If you double the size尺寸 of a city from 100,000 to 200,000,
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如果一个城市的规模从10万增长至20万
12:09
from a million百万 to two million百万, 10 to 20 million百万,
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从一百万到两百万 从一千万到两千万
12:11
it doesn't matter,
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都一样
12:13
then systematically系统
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在这个城市中
12:15
you get a 15 percent百分 increase增加
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工资 财富 艾滋病病例
12:17
in wages工资, wealth财富, number of AIDS艾滋病 cases,
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警察人数
12:19
number of police警察,
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任何你能想到的事物
12:21
anything you can think of.
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都会系统地增加15%
12:23
It goes up by 15 percent百分,
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对于所有事物都是如此
12:25
and you have a 15 percent百分 savings
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你还能节省
12:28
on the infrastructure基础设施.
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15%的基础设施经费
12:31
This, no doubt怀疑, is the reason原因
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这无疑就是
12:34
why a million百万 people a week are gathering搜集 in cities城市.
315
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城市每周新增一百万人口的原因
12:37
Because they think that all those wonderful精彩 things --
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他们觉得那些美好的事物
12:40
like creative创作的 people, wealth财富, income收入 --
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包括创新人才 财富 收入
12:42
is what attracts吸引 them,
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对他们有吸引力
12:44
forgetting遗忘 about the ugly丑陋 and the bad.
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而忘记了城市丑恶的一面
12:46
What is the reason原因 for this?
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原因何在
12:48
Well I don't have time to tell you about all the mathematics数学,
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我没有时间跟大家解释其中的数学
12:51
but underlying底层 this is the social社会 networks网络,
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社会网络是其基础
12:54
because this is a universal普遍 phenomenon现象.
323
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因为这是个普遍现象
12:57
This 15 percent百分 rule规则
324
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这个15%的规律
13:00
is true真正
325
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是真的
13:02
no matter where you are on the planet行星 --
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无论你在地球上哪个角落
13:04
Japan日本, Chile智利,
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日本 智利
13:06
Portugal葡萄牙, Scotland苏格兰, doesn't matter.
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葡萄牙 苏格兰 都一样
13:09
Always, all the data数据 shows节目 it's the same相同,
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尽管城市的发展是各自独立的
13:12
despite尽管 the fact事实 that these cities城市 have evolved进化 independently独立地.
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然而所有数据显示的结果都是一样的
13:15
Something universal普遍 is going on.
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这里蕴藏着一个普遍的规律
13:17
The universality普遍性, to repeat重复, is us --
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普遍性在于我们
13:20
that we are the city.
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我们就是城市
13:22
And it is our interactions互动 and the clustering集群 of those interactions互动.
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城市是我们相互活动以及这些活动的汇集
13:25
So there it is, I've said it again.
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我刚才说过了
13:27
So if it is those networks网络 and their mathematical数学的 structure结构体,
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那些网络和它们的数学结构
13:30
unlike不像 biology生物学, which哪一个 had sublinear次线性 scaling缩放,
337
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与呈次线性的生物界不同
13:33
economies经济 of scale规模,
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生物是规模经济
13:35
you had the slowing减缓 of the pace步伐 of life
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会随着规模的增大
13:37
as you get bigger.
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而减缓生长的速度
13:39
If it's social社会 networks网络 with super-linear超线性 scaling缩放 --
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如果城市的社会网络呈现超线性
13:41
more per capita人头 --
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人均数值越高
13:43
then the theory理论 says
343
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那么依照原理
13:45
that you increase增加 the pace步伐 of life.
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生长速度便会增加
13:47
The bigger you are, life gets得到 faster更快.
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你长得越大 生长速度就越快
13:49
On the left is the heart rate showing展示 biology生物学.
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左边是心率
13:51
On the right is the speed速度 of walking步行
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右边是行走的速度
13:53
in a bunch of European欧洲的 cities城市,
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在许多欧洲城市
13:55
showing展示 that increase增加.
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显示这样的增长情况
13:57
Lastly最后, I want to talk about growth发展.
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最后 我想谈谈增长
14:00
This is what we had in biology生物学, just to repeat重复.
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在重复一下 这是生物学的情况
14:03
Economies经济 of scale规模
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规模经济
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gave rise上升 to this sigmoidalS形 behavior行为.
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使之呈现反曲现象
14:09
You grow增长 fast快速 and then stop --
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你快速生长接着停止生长
14:12
part部分 of our resilience弹性.
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这是我们回复力的表现
14:14
That would be bad for economies经济 and cities城市.
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这对经济和城市都不利
14:17
And indeed确实, one of the wonderful精彩 things about the theory理论
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说实在的 这个原理奇妙之处之一在于
14:19
is that if you have super-linear超线性 scaling缩放
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如果财富创造和创新的
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from wealth财富 creation创建 and innovation革新,
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规模增长呈超线性
14:24
then indeed确实 you get, from the same相同 theory理论,
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那么根据同一理论 你必定会得到
14:27
a beautiful美丽 rising升起 exponential指数 curve曲线 -- lovely可爱.
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一条美妙的正态曲线 漂亮极了
14:29
And in fact事实, if you compare比较 it to data数据,
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实际上 如果你把它与数据进行对比
14:31
it fits适合 very well
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它非常符合
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with the development发展 of cities城市 and economies经济.
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城市与经济的发展情况
14:35
But it has a terrible可怕 catch抓住,
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然而 它存在着一个致命局限
14:37
and the catch抓住
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这个局限就是
14:39
is that this system系统 is destined注定 to collapse坍方.
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这个系统注定会崩溃
14:42
And it's destined注定 to collapse坍方 for many许多 reasons原因 --
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它之所以注定会崩溃 原因有很多
14:44
kind of Malthusian马尔萨斯 reasons原因 -- that you run out of resources资源.
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多少出于此消彼长的原因 资源枯竭了
14:47
And how do you avoid避免 that? Well we've我们已经 doneDONE it before.
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如何避免这种情况呢 我们曾尝试过
14:50
What we do is,
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我们所做的是
14:52
as we grow增长 and we approach途径 the collapse坍方,
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当我们发展到接近崩溃的阶段
14:55
a major重大的 innovation革新 takes place地点
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一项重大的创新出现了
14:58
and we start开始 over again,
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我们又从新开始
15:00
and we start开始 over again as we approach途径 the next下一个 one, and so on.
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向下一个目标靠近 以此类推
15:03
So there's this continuous连续 cycle周期 of innovation革新
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所以这个周而复始的创新周期
15:05
that is necessary必要
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对于维系发展
15:07
in order订购 to sustain支持 growth发展 and avoid避免 collapse坍方.
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避免崩溃 是十分必要的
15:10
The catch抓住, however然而, to this
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然而 这一局限
15:12
is that you have to innovate创新
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要求你必须
15:14
faster更快 and faster更快 and faster更快.
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不断加速创新
15:17
So the image图片
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所以 情况就是
15:19
is that we're not only on a treadmill跑步机 that's going faster更快,
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我们不仅坐在一架高速运转的机器上
15:22
but we have to change更改 the treadmill跑步机 faster更快 and faster更快.
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我们还必须加速对机器的更新
15:25
We have to accelerate加速 on a continuous连续 basis基础.
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我们必须不停地加速
15:28
And the question is: Can we, as socio-economic社会经济 beings众生,
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问题是 作为社会经济的存在
15:31
avoid避免 a heart attack攻击?
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我们能够避免心脏病发作吗
15:34
So lastly最后, I'm going to finish up in this last minute分钟 or two
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最后 我会花一两分钟
15:37
asking about companies公司.
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看看公司的情况
15:39
See companies公司, they scale规模.
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公司的规模不断增大
15:41
The top最佳 one, in fact事实, is Walmart沃尔玛(Walmart) on the right.
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上面右边的是沃尔玛
15:43
It's the same相同 plot情节.
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同样的图表
15:45
This happens发生 to be income收入 and assets资产
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这张图显示的是收入和资产
15:47
versus the size尺寸 of the company公司 as denoted by its number of employees雇员.
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比上公司规模 即员工人数
15:49
We could use sales销售, anything you like.
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我们还可以用销售量 什么都行
15:52
There it is: after some little fluctuations波动 at the beginning开始,
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看 当公司进行革新
15:55
when companies公司 are innovating创新,
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一开始出现轻微浮动
15:57
they scale规模 beautifully精美.
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它们长势良好
15:59
And we've我们已经 looked看着 at 23,000 companies公司
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我们观察了23000家
16:02
in the United联合的 States状态, may可能 I say.
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美国境内的企业
16:04
And I'm only showing展示 you a little bit of this.
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我今天展示给大家的只是冰山一角
16:07
What is astonishing惊人 about companies公司
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企业令人意想不到的地方是
16:09
is that they scale规模 sublinearlysublinearly
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是它们的规模增长呈次线性
16:12
like biology生物学,
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就像生物学的情况一样
16:14
indicating说明 that they're dominated占主导地位,
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这表明主导它们的
16:16
not by super-linear超线性
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并不是超线性的
16:18
innovation革新 and ideas思路;
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创新活动和思想
16:21
they become成为 dominated占主导地位
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主导它们的
16:23
by economies经济 of scale规模.
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是规模经济
16:25
In that interpretation解释,
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具体说来
16:27
by bureaucracy官僚 and administration行政,
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就是官僚主义和行政部门
16:29
and they do it beautifully精美, may可能 I say.
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可以说 它们干得很棒
16:31
So if you tell me the size尺寸 of some company公司, some small company公司,
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所以 如果你告诉我某个小企业的规模
16:34
I could have predicted预料到的 the size尺寸 of Walmart沃尔玛(Walmart).
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我就可以估摸出沃尔玛的规模
16:37
If it has this sublinear次线性 scaling缩放,
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如果其规模的增长呈次线性
16:39
the theory理论 says
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依照原理
16:41
we should have sigmoidalS形 growth发展.
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我们应该会得到一个S型的增长
16:44
There's Walmart沃尔玛(Walmart). Doesn't look very sigmoidalS形.
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这是沃尔玛 看起来并不十分像个S
16:46
That's what we like, hockey曲棍球 sticks.
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我们喜欢这个形状 冰球棍
16:49
But you notice注意, I've cheated被骗,
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但如果你仔细看 我其实做了手脚
16:51
because I've only gone走了 up to '94.
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因为我展示的部分只到94年
16:53
Let's go up to 2008.
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我们看看到了2008年情况如何
16:55
That red line线 is from the theory理论.
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红线表示的是理论上的预测
16:58
So if I'd have doneDONE this in 1994,
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如果我1994年开始制表
17:00
I could have predicted预料到的 what Walmart沃尔玛(Walmart) would be now.
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我就能够预测到沃尔玛现在的情况
17:03
And then this is repeated重复
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这个情况
17:05
across横过 the entire整个 spectrum光谱 of companies公司.
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在所有公司的生命周期中不断重复
17:07
There they are. That's 23,000 companies公司.
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这些就是所有23000家公司
17:10
They all start开始 looking like hockey曲棍球 sticks,
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它们一开始都呈现冰球棍的形状
17:12
they all bend弯曲 over,
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接着都弯下来了
17:14
and they all die like you and me.
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最后它们就像你我一样难逃一死
17:16
Thank you.
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谢谢大家
17:18
(Applause掌声)
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(众人鼓掌)
Translated by Lili Liang
Reviewed by Peng Zhang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Geoffrey West - Theorist
Physicist Geoffrey West believes that complex systems from organisms to cities are in many ways governed by simple laws -- laws that can be discovered and analyzed.

Why you should listen

Trained as a theoretical physicist, Geoffrey West has turned his analytical mind toward the inner workings of more concrete things, like ... animals. In a paper for Science in 1997, he and his team uncovered what he sees as a surprisingly universal law of biology — the way in which heart rate, size and energy consumption are related, consistently, across most living animals. (Though not all animals: “There are always going to be people who say, ‘What about the crayfish?’ " he says. “Well, what about it? Every fundamental law has exceptions. But you still need the law or else all you have is observations that don’t make sense.")

A past president of the multidisciplinary Santa Fe Institute (after decades working  in high-energy physics at Los Alamos and Stanford), West now studies the behavior and development of cities. In his newest work, he proposes that one simple number, population, can predict a stunning array of details about any city, from crime rate to economic activity. It's all about the plumbing, he says, the infrastructure that powers growth or dysfunction. His next target for study: corporations.

He says: "Focusing on the differences [between cities] misses the point. Sure, there are differences, but different from what? We’ve found the what."

More profile about the speaker
Geoffrey West | Speaker | TED.com