TED Talks Live
Eric Haseltine: What will be the next big scientific breakthrough?
埃里克·哈世廷: 下一个科学界大突破是什么？
Filmed:
Readability: 4.3
1,571,528 views
在漫漫历史长河中，推测时常带来革命性的科学进展——它们让我们看到了一个崭新的世界。“我所描述的不是那种进程缓慢的科学，“埃里克·哈世廷讲到：”我在描述的是带来重大飞跃的科学。“在这次的演讲中，哈世廷热切地带领我们探索了追求智慧前沿所需的两个观点——改变历史，以及雄心勃勃（还有对其他人合理的怀疑）。
Eric Haseltine - Author, futurist, innovator
Eric Haseltine applies discoveries about the brain to innovation and forecasting game-changing advances in science and technology. Full bio
Eric Haseltine applies discoveries about the brain to innovation and forecasting game-changing advances in science and technology. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Tonight, I'm going to share with you
my passion for science.
my passion for science.
0
920
3616
今天晚上，我想与大家
分享一下我对科学的热爱。
分享一下我对科学的热爱。
我想说的不是那些进程缓慢的科学，
00:16
I'm not talking about science
that takes baby steps.
that takes baby steps.
1
4560
3016
而是那些带来重大飞跃的科学。
00:19
I'm talking about science
that takes enormous leaps.
that takes enormous leaps.
2
7600
4256
是达尔文、爱因斯坦那一类
00:23
I'm talking Darwin, I'm talking Einstein,
3
11880
3376
给世界带来翻天覆地变化的、
革命性的科学。
革命性的科学。
00:27
I'm talking revolutionary science
that turns the world on its head.
that turns the world on its head.
4
15280
3600
00:31
In a moment, I'm going to talk
about two ideas that might do this.
about two ideas that might do this.
5
19440
3400
接下来，我会涉及到两个
可能带来这样效果的想法。
可能带来这样效果的想法。
00:35
I say "might"
6
23800
1216
我说“可能”，
因为大多数革命性的想法
都是彻头彻尾的错误。
都是彻头彻尾的错误。
00:37
because, with revolutionary ideas,
most are flat wrong,
most are flat wrong,
7
25040
2776
就算它们是正确的，
00:39
and even those that are right
seldom have the impact
seldom have the impact
8
27840
2456
也很少能带来我们想要的效果。
00:42
that we want them to have.
9
30320
1696
为了解释为什么我会
特意选择两个想法，
特意选择两个想法，
00:44
To explain why I picked
two ideas in particular,
two ideas in particular,
10
32040
2496
我想从一个神秘的故事讲起。
00:46
I'm going to start with a mystery.
11
34560
1680
00:48
1847, Vienna, Austria.
12
36840
3080
1847年，奥地利的维也纳。
00:53
Ignaz Semmelweis was a somber,
compulsively thorough doctor
compulsively thorough doctor
13
41080
3616
伊格纳兹·塞麦尔维斯
是一个沉着缜密的医生，
是一个沉着缜密的医生，
他经营着两家妇产诊所。
00:56
who ran two maternity clinics.
14
44720
1856
这两家诊所除了一件事以外完全相同。
00:58
They were identical except for one thing.
15
46600
2440
01:01
Women were dying of high fevers
soon after giving birth
soon after giving birth
16
49720
2656
其中一家诊所中女性分娩后
高烧死亡的病例要多过另一家三倍。
01:04
three times more often
at one of the clinics than at the other.
at one of the clinics than at the other.
17
52400
3560
01:08
Trying to figure out
what the difference was that caused this,
what the difference was that caused this,
18
56600
2936
为了弄清这背后的原因，
塞麦尔维斯仔细排查了
所有可能的情况。
所有可能的情况。
01:11
Semmelweis looked at everything he could.
19
59560
2016
卫生条件太差？不是。
01:13
Sanitation? No.
20
61600
1736
诊疗过程有问题？不是。
01:15
Medical procedures? No.
21
63360
2000
01:18
Air flow? No.
22
66000
1920
空气流通不好？也不是。
01:20
The puzzle went unsolved
until he happened to autopsy a doctor
until he happened to autopsy a doctor
23
68800
3256
他对此毫无头绪，直到偶然解剖了
一名死于手术感染的医生。
01:24
who died of an infected scalpel cut.
24
72080
2000
01:26
The doctor's symptoms were identical
to those of the mothers who were dying.
to those of the mothers who were dying.
25
74760
3776
那名医生与那些去世的母亲们
有完全相同的症状。
有完全相同的症状。
这怎么可能呢？
01:30
How was that possible?
26
78560
1376
一名男性医生怎么会
与刚分娩的女性得一样的疾病呢？
与刚分娩的女性得一样的疾病呢？
01:31
How could a male doctor
get the same thing as new mothers?
get the same thing as new mothers?
27
79960
2880
01:35
Semmelweis reconstructed
everything the doctor had done
everything the doctor had done
28
83560
3256
塞麦尔维斯重现了这名医生
在感染之前做过的每一件事，
01:38
right before he got sick,
29
86840
1256
他发现，这名医生之前
一直在解剖一具尸体。
一直在解剖一具尸体。
01:40
and he discovered
that he'd been autopsying a corpse.
that he'd been autopsying a corpse.
30
88120
4296
是不是有什么东西进入了他的伤口，
造成了他的死亡？
造成了他的死亡？
01:44
Had something gotten
in his wound that killed him?
in his wound that killed him?
31
92440
2800
01:48
With growing excitement,
32
96760
1776
怀着不断增强的好奇心，
塞麦尔维斯在停尸间的尸体
01:50
Semmelweis looked
for any connection he could
for any connection he could
33
98560
2816
01:53
between dead bodies in the morgue
and dead mothers in his delivery room,
and dead mothers in his delivery room,
34
101400
5376
和产房里死去的母亲之间
找寻了所有可能的联系，
找寻了所有可能的联系，
01:58
and he found it.
35
106800
1600
就这样，他找到了问题的答案。
02:01
It turned out that at the hospital
with the high death rate,
with the high death rate,
36
109320
2856
结果是，在死亡率高的那家医院，
只有那一家医院，
02:04
but not the others,
37
112200
1776
医生们在解剖尸体之后
紧接着就接生婴儿，
紧接着就接生婴儿，
02:06
doctors delivered babies immediately
after autopsying corpses in the morgue.
after autopsying corpses in the morgue.
38
114000
5136
02:11
Aha! Corpses were contaminating
the doctors' hands
the doctors' hands
39
119160
3936
啊哈！原来是尸体沾染了医生的手
并杀死了那些母亲。
02:15
and killing his mothers.
40
123120
1240
02:17
So he ordered the doctors
to sterilize their hands,
to sterilize their hands,
41
125240
3055
所以他要求医生们给手消毒，
然后就再也没有产后的母亲死亡了。
02:20
and the deaths stopped.
42
128320
2280
02:23
Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis
had discovered infectious disease.
had discovered infectious disease.
43
131400
4400
伊格纳兹·塞麦尔维斯医生发现了传染病。
02:28
But the doctors of the day
thought he was crazy,
thought he was crazy,
44
136400
3416
但是当时的医生都认为他疯了，
因为他们和几百年来的
人们一直都认为，
人们一直都认为，
02:31
because they knew,
and had for hundreds of years,
and had for hundreds of years,
45
139840
3496
是一种名为瘴气的
有味气体带来了疾病，
有味气体带来了疾病，
02:35
that odorous vapors
called miasmas caused disease,
called miasmas caused disease,
46
143360
5096
而不是这些看不到的假想粒子。
02:40
not these hypothetical particles
that you couldn't see.
that you couldn't see.
47
148480
3400
02:44
It took 20 years
for Frenchman Louis Pasteur
for Frenchman Louis Pasteur
48
152880
4176
法国人路易·巴斯德用了整整20年
才证明塞麦尔维斯是正确的。
02:49
to prove that Semmelweis was right.
49
157080
1960
02:51
Pasteur was an agricultural chemist
50
159680
2696
巴斯德是一名农业化学家，
他曾试图解释为什么
牛奶和啤酒经常变质。
牛奶和啤酒经常变质。
02:54
who tried to figure out
why milk and beer spoiled so often.
why milk and beer spoiled so often.
51
162400
4176
他发现细菌是幕后真凶。
02:58
He found that bacteria were the culprits.
52
166600
2440
03:02
He also found that bacteria
could kill people in exactly the same way
could kill people in exactly the same way
53
170160
3856
而且细菌会使人与塞麦尔维斯的病人
一样的方式死去。
03:06
that Semmelweis's patients were dying.
54
174040
2320
03:09
We now look at what I want
to talk about tonight, in two ideas.
to talk about tonight, in two ideas.
55
177120
4400
我们现在在讨论的两个想法
就是我今天想说的。
就是我今天想说的。
03:14
We saw it with Semmelweis,
that he was a revolutionary.
that he was a revolutionary.
56
182600
2920
我们共同见证了
塞麦尔维斯的革命性发现。
塞麦尔维斯的革命性发现。
03:18
He did it for two reasons.
57
186560
1256
我们这么说是出于两点原因：
其一，他为我们打开了新世界的大门。
03:19
One, he opened our eyes
to a completely new world.
to a completely new world.
58
187840
3240
03:23
We'd known since the 1680s about bacteria.
59
191720
2976
我们自十七世纪八十年代
就知道细菌的存在，
就知道细菌的存在，
但是我们不知道细菌还会杀死人类。
03:26
We just didn't know
that bacteria killed people.
that bacteria killed people.
60
194720
2456
他同时还推翻了人们心中
根深蒂固的传统观念。
根深蒂固的传统观念。
03:29
And he also demolished fond ideas
that people kept close to their heart.
that people kept close to their heart.
61
197200
5056
瘴气并不会杀死人类，
杀死人类的实际上是细菌。
杀死人类的实际上是细菌。
03:34
Miasmas didn't kill people.
Bacteria killed people.
Bacteria killed people.
62
202280
3320
03:38
So this brings me to the two ideas
I want to talk about tonight.
I want to talk about tonight.
63
206080
3336
这将我们带回了
我今晚想要讲到的两个观点。
我今晚想要讲到的两个观点。
一个能够拓宽我们的视野，
03:41
One has opened our eyes
to a completely new universe,
to a completely new universe,
64
209440
2816
另一个会颠覆长久以来的观念。
03:44
and the other attacks long-held beliefs.
65
212280
3976
我们首先来讲一下
埃里克·白兹格博士。
埃里克·白兹格博士。
03:48
Let's get started with Dr. Eric Betzig.
66
216280
1936
03:50
He's a physicist who has opened our eyes
to an entirely new world
to an entirely new world
67
218240
3896
这个物理学家通过违背物理法则
使我们见识到了一个新的世界。
03:54
by violating the laws of physics.
68
222160
1880
03:56
Betzig is a true rebel.
69
224720
1280
他是一个彻头彻尾的叛逆者。
03:58
He quit a job at prestigious
Bell Laboratory
Bell Laboratory
70
226560
2896
他从富有盛名的贝尔实验室辞职，
当时他们正在发明
用于生物研究的新型显微镜，
用于生物研究的新型显微镜，
04:01
inventing new microscopes for biology
71
229480
2256
因为他觉得科学家们正在
拿他绝佳的想法
拿他绝佳的想法
04:03
because he thought scientists
were taking his brilliant inventions
were taking his brilliant inventions
72
231760
4336
去做差劲的工作。
04:08
and doing lousy work with them.
73
236120
1520
04:10
So he became a househusband,
74
238880
3040
所以他变成了一个家庭煮夫，
04:15
but he never lost his passion
for figuring out
for figuring out
75
243360
2576
但是他从来没有失去过
04:17
how to get microscopes
to see finer and finer details
to see finer and finer details
76
245960
2896
想让显微镜提供更清晰图像的热情，
他想让显微镜的分辨率
达到前所未有的高度。
达到前所未有的高度。
04:20
than had ever been seen before
or ever could be seen.
or ever could be seen.
77
248880
2477
04:23
This is crucial if we're ever
going to understand how cells work,
going to understand how cells work,
78
251960
4456
这发明是极其重要的，
如果我们想要去了解细胞的工作机理，
如果我们想要去了解细胞的工作机理，
04:28
and how cancer works,
79
256440
1495
癌症是如何发生的，
04:29
and how something
150th the size of a head of a pin
150th the size of a head of a pin
80
257959
5417
还有那些只有针尖150分之1大小的东西
04:35
can do all these amazing things,
81
263400
2136
是怎样做到这些惊人的事情，
比如说制造蛋白，
04:37
like make proteins
82
265560
1576
还有运输带电粒子，
04:39
and move charges around
83
267160
1896
等等这之类的事情。
04:41
and all of those things.
84
269080
1280
04:43
There's just one problem.
85
271400
1680
但是这里有一个问题，
04:46
There's this thing
called the law of physics,
called the law of physics,
86
274040
2976
有一个名为物理法则的东西。
物理法则的其中一部分名叫衍射极限。
04:49
and part of the law of physics
is the thing called the diffraction limit.
is the thing called the diffraction limit.
87
277040
3456
它差不多是在说，
当你去诊所查视力的时候，
当你去诊所查视力的时候，
04:52
The diffraction limit is kind of like
when you go to a doctor's office,
when you go to a doctor's office,
88
280520
3376
不管你带了多么好的眼镜，
只能看见的最低的那一行。
只能看见的最低的那一行。
04:55
you can only see so far down,
no matter how good glasses you have.
no matter how good glasses you have.
89
283920
3136
这是一个所谓的“不可能问题”。
04:59
This was a so-called impossible problem.
90
287080
3376
但是白兹格的一个好朋友想到了
05:02
But one of Betzig's friends
figured out how to take a tiny molecule
figured out how to take a tiny molecule
91
290480
3176
怎样让一个最好的显微镜
也看不到的小分子
也看不到的小分子
05:05
that was smaller than
the best microscope could see
the best microscope could see
92
293680
2416
生亮发光。
05:08
and get it to light up and fluoresce.
93
296120
2136
“啊哈！”白兹格说：
05:10
"Aha!" Betzig said.
94
298280
2496
“我觉得物理法则也不是那么坚不可摧。”
05:12
"I think maybe the laws of physics
are not so unbreakable after all."
are not so unbreakable after all."
95
300800
4696
就这样他在朋友的客厅里
组建起一台显微镜。
组建起一台显微镜。
05:17
So he lashed together a microscope
in his friend's living room.
in his friend's living room.
96
305520
4856
05:22
He had no laboratory.
97
310400
1816
他没有自己的实验室。
这件杰出的发明使得蛋白分子
05:24
This revolutionary instrument
got different protein molecules
got different protein molecules
98
312240
3576
发出不同颜色的光，
05:27
to light up in different colors,
99
315840
1560
05:30
and with a computer, he was able
to turn very, very fuzzy blurs
to turn very, very fuzzy blurs
100
318080
4696
在计算机的帮助下，
他就可以将非常模糊的色块
他就可以将非常模糊的色块
转换成清晰的光点，实现前所未有的、
令人惊叹的清晰图像。
令人惊叹的清晰图像。
05:34
into very sharp dots and produce images
of unprecedented and startling clarity.
of unprecedented and startling clarity.
101
322800
6696
去年，埃里克·白兹格
05:41
For this work, last year,
102
329520
2296
05:43
Eric Betzig won the Nobel Prize.
103
331840
2600
因为这项成果获得了诺贝尔奖。
05:47
Why?
104
335360
1216
为什么呢？
因为我们现在可以以前所未有的清晰度
05:48
Because now we can see
with unprecedented detail
with unprecedented detail
105
336600
4096
看到从来没有看到过的东西。
05:52
things that we never had seen before,
106
340720
1816
现在医生们可以更好的
控制癌症之类的疾病。
控制癌症之类的疾病。
05:54
and now doctors can get
a better handle on things like cancer.
a better handle on things like cancer.
107
342560
3840
05:59
But do you think
Betzig was satisfied there?
Betzig was satisfied there?
108
347080
2496
但是你以为白兹格会就此满足吗？
大错特错。
06:01
No.
109
349600
1296
他想要得到动态的图像。
06:02
He wanted movies.
110
350920
1856
问题在于，
06:04
The problem was
111
352800
1216
即便是他发明的最先进的显微镜
仍旧是太慢了。
仍旧是太慢了。
06:06
that even the genius microscopes
that he invented were just too slow.
that he invented were just too slow.
112
354040
3976
所以他做了什么呢？
06:10
So what did he do?
113
358040
1256
他想到了一个两百年前提出的主意：
06:11
He came up with a 200-year-old idea
114
359320
3576
06:14
called moiré patterns.
115
362920
1696
叫“莫尔条纹”。
这个想法的原理是，
如果你让两组精细图案
如果你让两组精细图案
06:16
So the way that works is
if you take two very, very fine patterns
if you take two very, very fine patterns
116
364640
3456
06:20
and you move them across each other,
117
368120
1776
慢慢重合，
就可以看到
06:21
you will see a gross pattern
118
369920
3016
原本只有显微镜可以看到的
06:24
that a microscope can see
119
372960
1480
杂乱的图形。
06:27
that otherwise you would not
be able to see.
be able to see.
120
375360
2096
06:29
So he applied this technique
to taking a really blurry image of a cell
to taking a really blurry image of a cell
121
377480
3296
他使用这项技术来
拍摄模糊的细胞图像，
拍摄模糊的细胞图像，
然后在上面移动很多光线组合，
06:32
and moving lots of structured
light patterns across it
light patterns across it
122
380800
2576
直到细胞图像变得十分清晰。
06:35
until this cell became crystal clear.
123
383400
2440
06:38
And here is the result:
124
386840
2016
结果是这样的：
我们能够看到一个奇妙的新世界，
06:40
a mysterious new world,
125
388880
2736
其中满是奇怪的东西动来动去，
06:43
full of strange things zipping around
126
391640
2136
做着我们不甚了解的工作。
06:45
doing things that
we don't know what they're doing.
we don't know what they're doing.
127
393800
2400
06:49
But when we figure it out,
we'll have a better handle on life itself.
we'll have a better handle on life itself.
128
397600
3976
但是一旦我们弄明白，
我们就可以更好地理解生命。
我们就可以更好地理解生命。
比如说，你看到的那些绿色的东西，
06:53
For example, those
green globs that you see?
green globs that you see?
129
401600
2096
它们是网格蛋白。
06:55
Those things are called clathrins.
130
403720
1680
06:57
They're molecules
that protect other molecules
that protect other molecules
131
405960
2416
这种粒子的职责是
保护其他在细胞间穿梭的粒子。
07:00
as they move through a cell.
132
408400
1376
但是细菌有时候会
操纵它们去感染细胞。
操纵它们去感染细胞。
07:01
Unfortunately, viruses sometimes
hijack those to infect cells.
hijack those to infect cells.
133
409800
4336
还有，看到那些弯弯曲曲、
虫子一样动来动去的小东西了吧？
虫子一样动来动去的小东西了吧？
07:06
Also, you see those little squiggly
wormlike things moving around?
wormlike things moving around?
134
414160
3096
它们是肌动蛋白。
07:09
Those are actin molecules.
135
417280
2296
病毒同样也可以附着在它们上面
07:11
Unfortunately, viruses
also climb down those things
also climb down those things
136
419600
2416
进入细胞核并开始复制，
07:14
to get into the cell nucleus
137
422040
1456
07:15
to replicate themselves and make you sick.
138
423520
2120
使你感染疾病。
07:18
Now that we can look at movies
139
426240
1856
现在我们可以通过这些动态的图像
看到在细胞深处到底在发生什么，
07:20
of what's actually going on
deep inside a cell,
deep inside a cell,
140
428120
2856
让我们有更好的治愈病毒性疾病，
比如说艾滋病的机会。
比如说艾滋病的机会。
07:23
we have a much better chance
of curing viral diseases like AIDS.
of curing viral diseases like AIDS.
141
431000
4080
07:27
So when you look at a movie like this,
142
435680
1856
所以当你看到这样的小视频的时候，
白兹格着实是为我们打开了
新世界的大门。
新世界的大门。
07:29
it's very clear that Betzig has opened
our eyes to a completely new world.
our eyes to a completely new world.
143
437560
4000
07:34
But he hasn't shattered
any cherished beliefs.
any cherished beliefs.
144
442560
4120
但是他并没有打破任何固有的观念。
07:39
That leads us to Dr. Aubrey de Grey
145
447200
2936
讲到这里，就要提一下剑桥大学的
奥布里·德·格雷博士。
07:42
at Cambridge.
146
450160
1200
07:44
De Grey definitely has scientists
squirming with an interesting idea:
squirming with an interesting idea:
147
452440
4336
德·格雷博士有一个
让所有科学家都跃跃欲试的有趣想法。
让所有科学家都跃跃欲试的有趣想法。
我们是能够永生的。
07:48
we can be immortal.
148
456800
1376
我们可以停止老龄化。
07:50
We can beat aging.
149
458200
1616
现在大多数科学家认为他是一个怪人。
07:51
Now, most scientists
think he's a crackpot.
think he's a crackpot.
150
459840
2560
07:55
Any Biology 101 student knows
151
463320
3296
就连刚开始学习生物学的
学生都知道，
学生都知道，
衰老是生命不可避免的结局。
07:58
that aging is an inevitable
consequence of living.
consequence of living.
152
466640
4016
比如说，当我们在进食的时候，
08:02
For example, when we eat,
153
470680
2096
我们摄入食物并且开始代谢，
08:04
we take in food and we metabolize it,
154
472800
1856
在这个过程中会释放
我们称作“自由基“的东西。
我们称作“自由基“的东西。
08:06
and that throws off
what we call free radicals.
what we call free radicals.
155
474680
2376
你可能听说过。
08:09
You might have heard of those.
156
477080
1456
也叫氧离子，
08:10
Also known as oxygen ions,
157
478560
1936
它们会与我们的DNA
结合在一起，造成变异，
结合在一起，造成变异，
08:12
those bind to our DNA, cause it to mutate,
158
480520
2376
这就是为什么我们会变老并掉头发。
08:14
and cause us to get old and lose our hair.
159
482920
2056
（笑声）
08:17
(Laughter)
160
485000
1576
这有点像，不，
应该说这和氧与铁结合
应该说这和氧与铁结合
08:18
It's just like, no, it's exactly like
161
486600
2736
使其生锈是完全相同的道理。
08:21
oxygen binding to iron and making it rust.
162
489360
2176
所以说你会衰老是因为你生锈了。
08:23
So you age because you rust out.
163
491560
2456
（笑声）
08:26
(Laughter)
164
494040
2176
科学家们同时也知道有东西是不朽的，
08:28
Oh, and scientists also know
there is something called immortality:
there is something called immortality:
165
496240
5096
它们存在于癌细胞中。
08:33
in cancer cells.
166
501360
1976
所以如果你停止衰老，
08:35
So if you stop aging,
167
503360
2296
等于说你就变成了一个
行走的巨大恶性肿瘤。
行走的巨大恶性肿瘤。
08:37
all of you are going to turn
into giant walking malignant tumors.
into giant walking malignant tumors.
168
505680
3920
08:42
These are cherished beliefs,
but could de Grey be on to something?
but could de Grey be on to something?
169
510680
3160
这些都是盛行多年的观点,
但是德·格雷是不是对此有什么洞见？
但是德·格雷是不是对此有什么洞见？
08:47
I think he deserves a closer look.
170
515159
1657
我觉得人们应该试着去了解他。
首先，我并不认为他是一个怪人。
08:48
First of all, I have a really hard time
seeing him as a crackpot.
seeing him as a crackpot.
171
516840
3136
没错，他最初是一名计算机科学家，
08:52
Yeah, he started off life
as a computer scientist,
as a computer scientist,
172
520000
2336
而不是生物学家，
08:54
not a biologist,
173
522360
1496
但是他得到了剑桥大学
生物学的博士学位。
生物学的博士学位。
08:55
but he earned a PhD
in biology from Cambridge,
in biology from Cambridge,
174
523880
3816
他还就线粒体DNA和
一些其他领域的研究
一些其他领域的研究
08:59
and he has published
some very significant work
some very significant work
175
527720
2376
09:02
on mitochondrial DNA
and a bunch of other stuff.
and a bunch of other stuff.
176
530120
2456
发表了不少重要成果。
除此之外，
他还创建了一个抗衰老基金会，
他还创建了一个抗衰老基金会，
09:04
Secondly, he started
an antiaging foundation
an antiaging foundation
177
532600
3096
并发现了七种造成衰老的原因。
09:07
that has identified
seven different causes of aging,
seven different causes of aging,
178
535720
2576
对我来说，那些原因都是十分合理的。
09:10
to me, that seem very plausible,
179
538320
2256
同时他致力于想出
对每种原因的解决对策。
对每种原因的解决对策。
09:12
and he is hot in pursuit
of fixes for every single one of them.
of fixes for every single one of them.
180
540600
4136
比如说，衰老的原因之一是
我们的线粒体DNA会变异，
我们的线粒体DNA会变异，
09:16
For example, one of the reasons we age
is that our mitochondrial DNA mutates,
is that our mitochondrial DNA mutates,
181
544760
5016
由此使细胞失去能量，让人衰老。
09:21
and we get kind of old
and our cells lose energy.
and our cells lose energy.
182
549800
2680
09:25
He believes, and he's made
a convincing case,
a convincing case,
183
553160
2336
他相信，并且提出了
很令人信服的观点，
很令人信服的观点，
那就是使用病毒来进行基因疗法，
09:27
that using viruses we can do gene therapy,
184
555520
2536
修复DNA，
09:30
fix that DNA
185
558080
1656
使我们的细胞重新充满活力。
09:31
and rejuvenate our cells.
186
559760
1720
09:35
One more thing.
187
563400
1336
另外，
有证据证明，
09:36
We have an existent proof
188
564760
1856
特别长的寿命是有可能的。
09:38
that extreme longevity is possible.
189
566640
2720
09:42
Bristlecone pine trees live 5,000 years,
190
570520
4160
狐尾松树能存活5000年，
09:47
and some lobsters don't age at all.
191
575720
3800
有一些龙虾根本就不会衰老。
09:52
Now, this doesn't mean that de Grey
is going to revolutionize our lifespans.
is going to revolutionize our lifespans.
192
580640
4336
当然，这并不意味着德·格雷
会彻底改变我们的寿命。
会彻底改变我们的寿命。
毕竟我们不是树，
我们中的大多数也不是龙虾。
我们中的大多数也不是龙虾。
09:57
I mean, after all, we're not trees,
and most of us are not lobsters.
and most of us are not lobsters.
193
585000
3816
（笑声）
10:00
(Laughter)
194
588840
1216
但是，我相信我们这个时代
是有达尔文和爱因斯坦的，
是有达尔文和爱因斯坦的，
10:02
But I've got to believe that there are
Darwins and Einsteins out there,
Darwins and Einsteins out there,
195
590080
4800
10:07
and I'll tell you why.
196
595840
1376
我要来告诉你们为什么。
试想一下：
10:09
Consider this:
197
597240
1200
10:11
there are seven times more people
alive today than during Darwin's time.
alive today than during Darwin's time.
198
599160
5296
现在的人口数量是达尔文时期的七倍，
是爱因斯坦时期的四倍。
10:16
There are four times as many people
alive today as Einstein.
alive today as Einstein.
199
604480
3456
当你考虑到
10:19
When you consider
200
607960
1216
现在科学家占全体人口的比重在激增，
10:21
that the proportion of scientists
in the population has skyrocketed,
in the population has skyrocketed,
201
609200
3216
现在有七百万科学家。
10:24
there are now seven million scientists.
202
612440
2376
我不得不相信，并且我也的确相信，
他们中间有一个
他们中间有一个
10:26
I've got to believe, and I do believe,
that there's one of them out there
that there's one of them out there
203
614840
3440
10:31
who is working right now in obscurity
204
619720
2336
正默默无闻地钻研怎样延长
10:34
to rock our lives,
and I don't know about you,
and I don't know about you,
205
622080
2416
我们的寿命，
我不知道你们怎么想，
我不知道你们怎么想，
但是我对此迫不及待。
10:36
but I can't wait to be rocked.
206
624520
1816
谢谢。
10:38
Thank you.
207
626360
1256
（掌声）
10:39
(Applause)
208
627640
6961
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Eric Haseltine - Author, futurist, innovatorEric Haseltine applies discoveries about the brain to innovation and forecasting game-changing advances in science and technology.
Why you should listen
Dr. Eric Haseltine is a neuroscientist and futurist who has applied a brain-centered approach to help organizations in aerospace, entertainment, healthcare, consumer products and national security transform and innovate. He is the author of Long Fuse, Big Bang: Achieving Long-Term Success Through Daily Victories. For five years, he wrote a monthly column on the brain for Discover magazine and is a frequent contributor to Psychology Today's web site, where his popular blog on the brain has garnered over 800,000 views. Haseltine received the Distinguished Psychologist in Management Award from the Society of Psychologists in Management and has published 41 patents and patent applications in optics, media and entertainment technology.
In 1992 he joined Walt Disney Imagineering to help found the Virtual Reality Studio, which he ultimately ran until his departure from Disney in 2002. When he left Disney, Haseltine was executive vice president of Imagineering and head of R&D for the entire Disney Corporation, including film, television, theme parks, Internet and consumer products.
In the aftermath of 9/11, Eric joined the National Security Agency to run its Research Directorate. Three years later, he was promoted to associate of director of National Intelligence, where he oversaw all science and technology efforts within the United States Intelligence Community as well as fostering development innovative new technologies for countering cyber threats and terrorism. For his work on counter-terrorism technologies, he received the National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal in 2007.
Haseltine serves on numerous boards, and is an active consultant, speaker and writer. Over the past three years, he has focused heavily on developing innovation strategies and consumer applications for the Internet of Things, virtual reality and augmented reality.
Haseltine continues to do basic research in neuroscience, with his most recent publications focusing on the mind-body health connection and exploitation of big-data to uncover subtle, but important trends in mental and physical health.
Eric Haseltine | Speaker | TED.com