TED Salon Brightline Initiative
Dan Ariely: How to change your behavior for the better
丹 · 艾瑞里: 如何更好地改变你的行为？
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什么是让人们改变行为的最好方法？在这场有趣且充满信息的演讲中，心理学家丹·艾瑞里（Dan Ariely）探索了为什么我们会做出坏的决定，即使我们知道我们不应该这么做——并且讨论了一些能够让我们做出正确决定的技巧（即使是出于错误的原因）。
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Hi.
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嗨，
00:14
You might have noticed
that I have half a beard.
that I have half a beard.
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你可能已经注意到了
我只有半边胡子，
我只有半边胡子，
00:17
It's not because I lost a bet.
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这不是因为我打赌输了。
00:19
Many years ago, I was badly burned.
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很多年前，我被严重烧伤。
00:22
Most of my body is covered with scars,
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我身体大部分都被伤疤覆盖，
00:24
including the right side of my face.
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包括我这右半边脸。
00:26
I just don't have hair.
That's just how it happened.
That's just how it happened.
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我只是不再长胡子。
事情就是这样发生的。
事情就是这样发生的。
00:29
It looks symmetrical, but almost.
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它看起来挺对称的，
差不多。
差不多。
00:31
Anyway, now that we discussed facial hair,
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不管怎样，我们已经谈论了胡子，
00:35
let's move to social science.
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我们开始说社会科学。
00:37
And in particular, I want us to think
about where is the potential for humanity
about where is the potential for humanity
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尤其是，我想要大家思考的是
人类的潜能有多大，
人类的潜能有多大，
00:44
and where we are now.
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并且我们已经到达了哪个水平。
00:45
And if you think about it,
there's a big gap
there's a big gap
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如果你想一下这个问题，
00:47
between where we think we could be
and where we are,
and where we are,
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在我们认为已经达到的水平
和能够达到的水平
和能够达到的水平
00:50
and it's in all kinds of areas.
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不论哪一方面，
这里都有个很大的差距。
这里都有个很大的差距。
00:52
So let me ask you:
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所以，让我问你：
00:54
How many of you in the last month
have eaten more than you think you should?
have eaten more than you think you should?
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你们多少人上个月饮食超量了？
00:58
Just kind of general. OK.
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这就很普遍，好。
01:00
How many of you in the last month have
exercised less than you think you should?
exercised less than you think you should?
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你们多少人上个月
运动量没有达标？
运动量没有达标？
01:05
OK, and for how many of you
has raising your hands twice
has raising your hands twice
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好，你们多少人举手两次
01:08
been the most exercise you got today?
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已经是今天最大的运动量了？
01:10
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:13
How many of you have ever
texted while driving?
texted while driving?
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你们多少人在开车的时候
发过短信？
发过短信？
01:18
OK, we're getting honest.
Let's test your honesty.
Let's test your honesty.
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好，大家都在说实话。
让我们测一下你的诚实度。
让我们测一下你的诚实度。
01:21
How many people here in the last month
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你们在座多少人
在上个月
在上个月
01:23
have not always washed your hands
when you left the bathroom?
when you left the bathroom?
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上完厕所没洗手？
01:26
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:28
A little less honest.
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没那么诚实了。
01:29
By the way, it's interesting how we're
willing to admit texting and driving
willing to admit texting and driving
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顺便，这很有趣。
我们对开车时发短信的承认意愿度
我们对开车时发短信的承认意愿度
01:33
but not washing our hands,
that's difficult.
that's difficult.
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竟然比不洗手高。这不简单。
01:35
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:37
We can go on and on.
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我们可以一直问问题。
01:38
The problem, the topic is
that there's lots of things
that there's lots of things
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问题是，有很多事情，
当我们知道自己能够做到——
当我们知道自己能够做到——
01:41
when we know what we could do --
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我们会变得极其不一样，
01:43
we could be very, very different,
but we're acting in a very different way.
but we're acting in a very different way.
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但是这个情况下，
我们的应对行为截然不同。
我们的应对行为截然不同。
01:47
And when we think
how do we bridge that gap,
how do we bridge that gap,
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当我们思考如何
能够缩小那个差距时，
能够缩小那个差距时，
01:49
the usual answer is, "Just tell people."
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通常的回答是“就告诉他们”。
01:52
For example, just tell people
that texting and driving is dangerous.
that texting and driving is dangerous.
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比如，就告诉他们
开车时候发短信很危险。
开车时候发短信很危险。
01:55
Did you know it's dangerous?
You should stop doing it.
You should stop doing it.
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你知道这很危险吗？
你应该停止做这件事。
你应该停止做这件事。
01:58
You tell people something
is dangerous, and they will stop.
is dangerous, and they will stop.
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你告诉他们一件事很危险，
之后他们就会停止做它。
之后他们就会停止做它。
02:01
Texting and driving is one example.
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开车时发短信，只是一个例子。
02:02
Another very sad example
is that in the US,
is that in the US,
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另一个非常悲哀的例子就是，
在美国，
在美国，
02:05
we spend between seven
and eight hundred million dollars a year
and eight hundred million dollars a year
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我们每年大约花费
七亿到八亿美元
七亿到八亿美元
02:08
on what's called "financial literacy."
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在我们所谓的“金融知识”上。
02:11
And what do we get
as a consequence of that?
as a consequence of that?
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我们做这事的结果是什么？
02:13
There was recently a study that looked
at all the research ever to be conducted
at all the research ever to be conducted
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有个最近的研究，
调查了所有有关金融知识的论文——
调查了所有有关金融知识的论文——
02:17
on financial literacy --
what's called a meta-analysis.
what's called a meta-analysis.
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我们称之为整合分析。
02:20
And what they found is that
when you tell people,
when you tell people,
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研究发现，当你告诉人们，
02:23
you teach them financial literacy,
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你教他们金融知识，
02:25
they learn and they remember.
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他们学会了、记住了，
02:27
But do people execute? Not so much.
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但是他们执行了吗？基本没吧。
02:30
The improvement is about
three or four percent
three or four percent
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3% - 4% 的进步只是
体现在
体现在
02:33
immediately after the course,
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刚刚课程结束后，
02:35
and then it goes down.
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之后便出现下滑。
02:36
And at the end of the day,
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到头来，
02:38
the improvement is about 0.1 percent --
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进步率仅为 0.1% ——
02:42
not zero, but as humanly close
to zero as possible.
to zero as possible.
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不是 0，但是从人的角度看，
接近于 0。
接近于 0。
02:45
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:48
So that's the sad news.
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所以这是一件令人悲伤的事。
02:49
The sad news is, giving
information to people
information to people
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令人悲伤的是：给予人们信息
02:52
is just not a good recipe
to change behavior.
to change behavior.
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并不是改变行为的好方法。
02:55
What is?
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那什么是？
02:56
Well, social science
has made lots of strides,
has made lots of strides,
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社会科学已经取得了很大的进步，
02:59
and the basic insight is that
if we want to change behavior,
if we want to change behavior,
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而其的基本观点是：
如果我们想要改变行为，
如果我们想要改变行为，
03:02
we have to change the environment.
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我们必须改变环境。
03:05
The right way is not to change people,
it's to change the environment.
it's to change the environment.
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正确的方法不是改变人们，
而是改变环境。
而是改变环境。
03:08
And I want to present a very simpleminded
model of how to think about it:
model of how to think about it:
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我想提出一个非常简单的思维模式
来想这件事：
来想这件事：
03:12
it's to think about behavioral change
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把行为改变
03:14
in the same way that we think about
sending a rocket to space.
sending a rocket to space.
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当作送火箭上太空
来思考这个问题。
来思考这个问题。
03:17
When we think about
sending a rocket to space,
sending a rocket to space,
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当我们想到送火箭上太空，
03:20
we want to do two main things.
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我们一般主要要做两件事。
03:21
The first one is to reduce friction.
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第一件事，就是减少摩擦。
03:24
We want to take the rocket
and have as little friction as possible
and have as little friction as possible
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我们想要乘坐火箭，
并且尽可能减少摩擦，
并且尽可能减少摩擦，
03:27
so it's the most aerodynamic possible.
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尽量最大化满足空气动力学。
03:29
And the second thing is we want
to load as much fuel as possible,
to load as much fuel as possible,
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第二件事，就是我们想要
装载尽量多的燃料，
装载尽量多的燃料，
03:32
to give it the most amount
of motivation, energy to do its task.
of motivation, energy to do its task.
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给火箭足够多的动力和能量，
来完成它的任务。
来完成它的任务。
03:37
And behavior change is the same thing.
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而行为改变也是一样。
03:39
So let's first talk about friction.
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我们首先来说说摩擦。
03:43
In this particular case study
I'll tell you about,
I'll tell you about,
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在这个特定的案例分析中，
我会给你讲一个
我会给你讲一个
03:46
there's a pharmacy, an online pharmacy.
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药店的故事，一个网上药店。
03:49
Imagine you go to your doctor.
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想象一下你去找你的医生，
03:51
You have a long-term illness,
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你有一个慢性疾病，
03:53
your doctor prescribes
to you a medication,
to you a medication,
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医生给了开了药，
03:55
you sign up for this online pharmacy
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你注册了这个网上药店
03:58
and you get your medication
in the mail every 90 days.
in the mail every 90 days.
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之后每隔 90 天，
你会收到这些药的邮寄包裹。
你会收到这些药的邮寄包裹。
04:01
Every 90 days, medication,
medication, medication.
medication, medication.
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每 90 天，药，药，药。
04:04
And this online pharmacy
wants to switch people
wants to switch people
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之后这个网上药店
04:07
from branded medication
to generic medication.
to generic medication.
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想要让人们
从品牌药换成仿制药。
从品牌药换成仿制药。
04:11
So they send people letters, and they say,
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所以他们给人们寄了信，说：
04:13
"Please, please, please,
switch to generics.
switch to generics.
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“拜托，拜托，拜托，
换成仿制药。
换成仿制药。
04:15
You will save money, we will save money,
your employer will save money."
your employer will save money."
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由此你可以省钱，我们可以省钱，
你的雇主也能省钱。”
你的雇主也能省钱。”
04:19
And what do people do?
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人们什么反应？
04:20
Nothing.
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没有任何反应。
04:21
So they try all kinds of things
and nothing happens.
and nothing happens.
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之后他们尝试了各种方法，
依旧没有任何改变发生。
依旧没有任何改变发生。
04:24
So for one year, they give people
an amazing offer.
an amazing offer.
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后来，他们给人们
一个一年期的很棒的优惠。
一个一年期的很棒的优惠。
04:27
They send people a letter, and they say,
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他们给人们寄了一封信，说：
04:29
"If you switch to generics now,
it will be free for a whole year."
it will be free for a whole year."
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“如果你们现在改成仿制药，
可以免去一整年的药费。”
可以免去一整年的药费。”
04:33
Free for a whole year. Amazing!
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一整年免费。多棒啊！
04:35
What percentage of people
do you think switched?
do you think switched?
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你觉得有多少人改了处方？
04:39
Less than 10 percent.
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不到 10%。
04:41
At this point, they show up to my office.
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这时候，他们跑来我的办公室。
04:43
And they come to complain.
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他们开始抱怨。
04:45
Why did they pick me?
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他们为什么选择我？
04:46
I wrote a couple of papers
on the "allure of free."
on the "allure of free."
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因为我写了几篇
关于“免费的诱惑”的研究论文。
关于“免费的诱惑”的研究论文。
04:49
In those papers, we showed
that if you reduce the price of something
that if you reduce the price of something
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在那些文章中，我们表明
如果你给某个东西降价，
如果你给某个东西降价，
04:52
for, let's say, 10 cents to one cent,
nothing much happens.
nothing much happens.
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假如我们说 10 分到 1 分钱，
不会有太多变化。
不会有太多变化。
04:55
You reduce it from one cent to zero,
now people get excited.
now people get excited.
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如果你从 1 分降价到不要钱，
人们就会开始激动起来。
人们就会开始激动起来。
04:58
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
05:00
And they said, "Look, we read these
papers on 'free,' we gave 'free.'
papers on 'free,' we gave 'free.'
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之后他们说：“看，我们读了那些
关于‘免费’的文章，所以我们‘免费’给药。
关于‘免费’的文章，所以我们‘免费’给药。
05:03
Not working as we expected.
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这并不如我们预期，
05:04
What's going on?"
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究竟怎么回事？”
05:06
I said, "You know, maybe
it's a question of friction."
it's a question of friction."
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我说：“你知道，
这可能是一个摩擦的问题。”
这可能是一个摩擦的问题。”
05:09
They said, "What do you mean?"
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他们说：“什么意思？”
05:11
I said, "People are starting with branded.
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我说：“人们最初开的是品牌药。
05:13
They can do nothing and end with branded.
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他们可以什么都不做，
一直开着品牌药。
一直开着品牌药。
05:15
To move to generic, they have to choose
generic over branded,
generic over branded,
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如果要改成仿制药，
他们必须选择仿制药，
他们必须选择仿制药，
05:19
but they also have to do something.
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而且他们必须有行动，
05:21
They have to return the letter."
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他们需要给你们回信。”
05:22
So this is what we call
a "confounded design."
a "confounded design."
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所以这就是我们说的
“混杂设计”。
“混杂设计”。
05:25
Two things are happening at the same time.
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两件事同时发生。
05:27
It's branded versus generic,
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即，品牌药 vs 仿制药。
05:29
but it's doing nothing
versus doing something.
versus doing something.
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但实际却是
无行动 vs 有行动。
无行动 vs 有行动。
05:32
So I said, "Why don't we switch it?
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所以我说：
“我们为什么不调换过来？
“我们为什么不调换过来？
05:34
Why don't we send people a letter
and say, 'We're switching you to generics.
and say, 'We're switching you to generics.
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为何不给人们寄封信，告诉他们：
我们将要把你的处方改成仿制药。
我们将要把你的处方改成仿制药。
05:38
You don't need to do anything.
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你不需要做任何事情。
05:39
If you want to stay with branded,
please return the letter.'"
please return the letter.'"
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如果你想要保留品牌药的选择，
请给我们回信。”
请给我们回信。”
05:42
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
05:43
Right?
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对吧？
05:45
What do you think happened?
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现在你认为什么情况会发生？
05:48
Lawyers, lawyers happened.
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律师，律师找上门了。
05:50
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
05:56
It turns out, this is illegal.
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结果证明，这种做法并不合法。
05:57
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:03
By the way, for brainstorming
and creativity,
and creativity,
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顺便说一下，为头脑风暴和创新，
06:06
doing things that are illegal
and immoral, it's fine,
and immoral, it's fine,
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做不合法不道德的事情，
没有关系，
没有关系，
06:08
as long as it's just
in the brainstorming phase.
in the brainstorming phase.
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只要这些事情
仅停留于头脑风暴的层面。
仅停留于头脑风暴的层面。
06:12
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:13
But this was the purity of the idea,
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但这是那想法最纯粹的地方。
06:15
because the initial design was
the branded had the no-action benefit.
the branded had the no-action benefit.
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因为这个原始设计是
品牌药有不作为的好处。
品牌药有不作为的好处。
06:19
In my illegal, immoral design,
generic had the no-action benefit.
generic had the no-action benefit.
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在我违法、不道德的设计中，
仿制药有了不作为的好处。
仿制药有了不作为的好处。
06:23
But they agreed to give people
a T-intersection:
a T-intersection:
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但是他们同意给人们双向选择：
06:26
send people a letter and say,
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给他们寄一封信，并说：
06:28
"If you don't return this letter,
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“如果你不寄回这封信，
06:30
we will be forced
to stop your medications.
to stop your medications.
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我们将会被迫停止您的药物订阅。
06:33
But when you return the letter,
you could choose branded at this price,
you could choose branded at this price,
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但当你寄回这封信，
你可以选择付这么多钱买品牌药，
你可以选择付这么多钱买品牌药，
06:36
generic at this price."
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那么多钱仿制药。”
06:38
Now people had to take an action.
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现在人们必须做出行动，
06:40
They were on even footing. Right?
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他们甚至加快了行动。对吧？
06:42
It wasn't that one had
the no-action benefit.
the no-action benefit.
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这情况下不作为好处没了。
06:44
What percentage do you think switched?
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那么，有多少人换了？
06:48
The vast majority switched.
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大多数人都换了。
06:50
So what does it tell us?
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所以这告诉我们什么？
06:51
Do people like generics,
or do we like branded?
or do we like branded?
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人们喜欢仿制药，
或者喜欢品牌药？
或者喜欢品牌药？
06:54
We hate returning letters.
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我们讨厌回信。
06:56
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:58
This is the story of friction:
small things really matter.
small things really matter.
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这是关于摩擦的故事：
小事，但重要。
小事，但重要。
07:02
And friction is about taking
the desired behavior
the desired behavior
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摩擦的意思是
思考着预期行为，
思考着预期行为，
07:06
and saying: Where do we have
too much friction
too much friction
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之后想：哪里存在太多摩擦
07:08
so it's slowing people down
from acting on it?
from acting on it?
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减慢了人们采取行动的速度?
07:11
And every time you see
that the desired behavior
that the desired behavior
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之后每次你都会看到
那个预期行为
那个预期行为
07:13
and the easy behavior are not aligned,
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和容易的行为不一致，
07:15
it means we want to try and realign them.
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这说明我们想要尝试，
并重新调整那些行为。
并重新调整那些行为。
07:18
That's the first part.
We talked about friction.
We talked about friction.
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这是第一部分，
我们讲了摩擦。
我们讲了摩擦。
07:20
Now let's talk about motivation.
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现在来谈谈动力。
07:22
In this particular study,
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在这个特别的研究中，
07:24
we were trying to get very poor people
in a slum called Kibera in Kenya
in a slum called Kibera in Kenya
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我们尝试着让肯尼亚的
基贝拉贫民窟里非常贫穷的人们
基贝拉贫民窟里非常贫穷的人们
07:28
to save a little bit of money
for a rainy day.
for a rainy day.
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存一点点钱，以备不时之需。
07:31
You know, if you're very, very poor,
you have no extra money,
you have no extra money,
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你知道，如果你非常非常贫穷，
你不会有一点多余的钱，
你不会有一点多余的钱，
07:34
you live hand to mouth,
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你只能勉强度日，
07:35
and from time to time, bad things happen.
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有时，坏事还会发生。
07:37
And when something bad happens,
you have nothing to draw on, you borrow.
you have nothing to draw on, you borrow.
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当坏事发生的时候，
你没有任何依靠，所以你借钱。
你没有任何依靠，所以你借钱。
07:42
The Kibera people can borrow at sometimes
up to 10 percent interest a week.
up to 10 percent interest a week.
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基贝拉的人们有时会借那种
高达 10% 周利率的钱。
高达 10% 周利率的钱。
07:48
And then, of course,
it's really hard to get out of it.
it's really hard to get out of it.
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之后，当然，
就很难脱离这种窘境。
就很难脱离这种窘境。
07:51
You live hand to mouth,
something bad happens,
something bad happens,
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你勉强度日，坏事发生，
07:53
you borrow, things get worse
and worse and worse.
and worse and worse.
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你借钱，情况变得更糟，
之后更糟，更糟。
之后更糟，更糟。
07:56
So we wanted people to keep
a little bit of money for a rainy day.
a little bit of money for a rainy day.
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所以我们想要让人们
存下一点点钱备用。
存下一点点钱备用。
08:00
And we thought about
what is the motivation,
what is the motivation,
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我们考虑了
他们做这事的动力是什么，
他们做这事的动力是什么，
08:02
what is the fuel that we need to add?
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我们还需要加入一些
什么动力因素？
什么动力因素？
08:05
And we tried all kinds of things.
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我们尝试了各种东西。
08:07
Some people, we texted them
once a week and said,
once a week and said,
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有些人，
我们每周发消息给他们并说：
我们每周发消息给他们并说：
08:09
"Please try to save 100 shillings" --
about a dollar -- "this week."
about a dollar -- "this week."
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“请尝试着存下 100 先令”——
大约 1 美金——“这周。”
大约 1 美金——“这周。”
08:14
Some people, we sent a text message
as if it came from their kids.
as if it came from their kids.
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有些人，我们给他们发
仿佛是他们的孩子发来的消息。
仿佛是他们的孩子发来的消息。
08:19
So it said, "Hi Mom, hi Dad,
this is little Joey" --
this is little Joey" --
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所以短信写着，“爸爸妈妈，
我是小乔伊，”——
我是小乔伊，”——
08:22
whatever the name of the kid was --
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不管孩子的名字是什么——
08:24
"Try and save 100 shillings this week
for the future of our family."
for the future of our family."
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“这周请尝试着存下 100 先令，
为了我们家的未来。”
为了我们家的未来。”
08:28
Right? I'm Jewish, a little bit
of guilt always works.
of guilt always works.
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对吧？我是犹太人，
愧疚感总是有帮助。
愧疚感总是有帮助。
08:32
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
08:33
Some people got 10 percent.
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有的人拿了 10% 的利率。
08:35
"Save up to a hundred shillings,
we'll give you 10 percent."
we'll give you 10 percent."
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“请存下 100 先令，
我们将会给你们 10% 利息。”
我们将会给你们 10% 利息。”
08:38
Some people got 20 percent.
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有的人拿了 20%。
08:40
Some people got also
10 percent and 20 percent,
10 percent and 20 percent,
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有些人同时拿了 10% 和 20%，
08:42
but they got it with loss aversion.
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但他们是通过损失厌恶而获得的。
08:45
What is loss aversion?
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什么是损失厌恶？
08:46
Loss aversion is the idea
that we hate losing
that we hate losing
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损失厌恶就是
我们讨厌输钱的程度
我们讨厌输钱的程度
08:48
more than we enjoy gaining.
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远大于我们享受赢钱的程度。
08:50
Now, think about somebody
who is in a 10-percent condition
who is in a 10-percent condition
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2727
现在，想一下
在 10% 条件下的某个人
在 10% 条件下的某个人
08:53
and they put 40 shillings in.
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存了 40 先令，
08:55
They put 40 shillings,
we give them four more,
we give them four more,
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他们存了 40 先令，
我们给他们额外的 4 先令。
我们给他们额外的 4 先令。
08:57
they say thank you very much.
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他们说“非常感谢。”
08:59
That person gave up six.
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其实那个人损失了 6 先令。
09:00
They could have gotten six more
if they gave a hundred,
if they gave a hundred,
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如果他们能存 100，
本可以拿额外的 6 先令，
本可以拿额外的 6 先令，
09:03
but they don't see it.
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但是他们看不到。
09:05
So we created what we call pre-match.
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所以我们搞了个实验前匹配。
09:07
We put the 10 shillings in
at the beginning of the week.
at the beginning of the week.
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我们在一周开始的时候
把 10 先令放在他们跟前，
把 10 先令放在他们跟前，
09:10
We said, "It's waiting for you!"
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说：“它在等着你！”
09:11
And then if somebody puts 40 in,
we say, "Oh, you put 40 in,
we say, "Oh, you put 40 in,
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之后如果有人存进 40，
我们会说：“喔，你存了 40 ，
我们会说：“喔，你存了 40 ，
09:14
we're leaving four,
and we're taking six back."
and we're taking six back."
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可以给你 4 先令，
另外的 6 先令我们拿走了。”
另外的 6 先令我们拿走了。”
09:17
So in both cases, pre-match or post-match,
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所以这两个情况，
实验前、或后的匹配，
实验前、或后的匹配，
09:20
people get 10 percent.
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人们都拿到了 10%。
09:22
But in the pre-match,
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但是在实验前匹配中，
09:23
they see the money they did not match
leaving their account.
leaving their account.
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他们看到了不匹配的钱
消失在他们的账户上。
消失在他们的账户上。
09:27
So we have text, text from kids,
10 percent, 20 percent,
10 percent, 20 percent,
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我们尝试了短信、来自孩子的短信、
10% 和 20% 现金奖励，
10% 和 20% 现金奖励，
09:30
pre-match, post-match.
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实验前和实验后匹配。
09:32
And we had one more condition.
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我们还另加了一个条件。
09:34
It was a coin about this size,
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那是一枚硬币，
大概这样的大小，
大概这样的大小，
09:36
with 24 numbers written on it.
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上面写有 24 个数字。
09:39
And we asked them to put the coin
somewhere in their hut,
somewhere in their hut,
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我们叫他们把这枚硬币
放在屋子里的某个地方，
放在屋子里的某个地方，
09:42
and every week, take a knife
and scratch the number for that week --
and scratch the number for that week --
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之后每个星期，拿把刀
在硬币上划掉一个数字——
在硬币上划掉一个数字——
09:46
week one, two, three, four --
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第 1 周，
第 2、3、4周——
第 2、3、4周——
09:48
scratch it like a minus
if they didn't save
if they didn't save
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像减法符号一样横着划线，
如果他们没有存钱，
如果他们没有存钱，
09:50
and scratch it up and down if they saved.
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之后他们如果存钱了，
就上下划线。
就上下划线。
09:53
Now, think to yourself:
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现在，你想想：
09:55
Which one of those methods
do you think worked the best?
do you think worked the best?
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哪一个方法最有效？
09:58
Text, text from the kids,
10 percent, 20 percent,
10 percent, 20 percent,
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短信、来自孩子的短信、
10:00
beginning of the week,
end of the week, and the coin?
end of the week, and the coin?
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每周 10% 和 20% 现金奖励，
以及硬币？
以及硬币？
10:03
I'll tell you what
the average people think.
the average people think.
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我可以告诉你们普遍人们的想法。
10:05
We've done these studies of prediction,
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我们做了这样一个预测研究，
10:07
both in the US and in Kenya.
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2094
在美国和肯尼亚。
10:09
People think that 20 percent
will get a lot of action,
will get a lot of action,
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2944
人们认为 20% 的方法
能鼓励大家存钱，
能鼓励大家存钱，
10:12
10 percent less,
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10% 鼓励力度少一些，
10:13
the rest of it will do nothing --
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其余的没有用——
10:15
kids, coin, doesn't matter.
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2725
孩子，硬币，不重要。
10:19
People think loss aversion
will have a small effect.
will have a small effect.
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人们认为损失厌恶的影响很小。
10:22
What actually happened?
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但实际上？
10:24
Sending a text reminder once a week
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每周一次的短信
10:27
helps a lot.
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帮助程度很大。
10:28
Good news!
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好消息！
10:30
This program lasted six months.
People forget. Reminding people is great.
People forget. Reminding people is great.
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这个项目持续了 6 个月。
人们会忘记，提醒他们很好。
人们会忘记，提醒他们很好。
10:34
Ten percent at the end
of the week helped some more.
of the week helped some more.
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2945
一周结束时的 10%
帮助更大。
帮助更大。
10:37
Financial incentives work.
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1398
金钱激励是有用的。
10:39
Twenty percent at the end of the week --
just like 10 percent, no difference.
just like 10 percent, no difference.
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一周结束时的 20% ——
就和 10% 一样，没有差别。
就和 10% 一样，没有差别。
10:43
Ten percent in the beginning of the week
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一周开始时的 10%，
10:45
helps some more.
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帮助更大。
10:46
Loss aversion works.
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损失厌恶有用。
10:48
Twenty percent in
the beginning of the week,
the beginning of the week,
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一周开始时的 20%，
10:50
just like 10 percent in the beginning
of the week, no difference.
of the week, no difference.
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3075
就和一周开始时的 10% 一样，
没有什么差别。
没有什么差别。
10:53
And the text message from the kids
was just as effective
was just as effective
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之后来自孩子的短信
就和 20% 外加损失厌恶
就和 20% 外加损失厌恶
10:56
as 20 percent plus loss aversion --
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一样有效——
10:59
which is amazing, right?
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这很令人惊讶，对吧？
11:01
It's amazing how motivating
messages from kids were.
messages from kids were.
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孩子的短信如此激励人们，
是一件多棒的事。
是一件多棒的事。
11:04
And one conclusion is
we don't use kids enough.
we don't use kids enough.
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所以还有一个结论就是：
我们还没有充分利用孩子。
我们还没有充分利用孩子。
11:07
(Laughter)
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2048
（笑声）
11:09
And, of course, I don't mean
in a child labor sense.
in a child labor sense.
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5468
当然，我不是指使用童工。
11:16
But if you think about
parents and their kids,
parents and their kids,
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2374
但是如果你想想家长和孩子，
11:18
we are the best that we can for our kids,
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2619
我们能为孩子们做到最好。
11:21
and we think about the future,
255
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1491
我们再想想未来，
11:22
and I think we should think
256
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1480
我觉得我们应该思考
11:24
about how to use that amazing
source of motivation
source of motivation
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如何利用人们的动力源泉
11:27
to get parents to behave in a better way.
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2551
让家长们表现得更好。
11:30
But the big surprise
of this study was the coin.
of this study was the coin.
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2827
但这个研究中的大惊喜
是这个硬币。
是这个硬币。
11:33
The coin basically doubled savings
compared to everything else.
compared to everything else.
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使用硬币方法的，
他们的存款是别的方法的 2 倍。
他们的存款是别的方法的 2 倍。
11:37
And now the question is: Why?
What was it about the coin?
What was it about the coin?
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现在问题是：
为什么？硬币有什么奇特之处？
为什么？硬币有什么奇特之处？
11:41
So I'll tell you how I started
thinking about the coin,
thinking about the coin,
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所以让我现在来和你说
我是怎么开始思考那个硬币的，
我是怎么开始思考那个硬币的，
11:43
and then we'll come back to it.
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1504
之后再回来解决这个问题。
11:45
So you know, when I do research
on, let's say, buying coffee,
on, let's say, buying coffee,
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当我做关于买咖啡的研究时，
11:48
I don't need to go anywhere.
I can sit in my office.
I can sit in my office.
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我不需要去任何地方。
我可以就坐在办公室。
我可以就坐在办公室。
11:50
I've bought enough coffee.
I know how it works.
I know how it works.
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2213
我已经买了足够多的咖啡，
也知道整个流程是什么。
也知道整个流程是什么。
11:52
The details, I'm familiar with.
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1936
细节，我很熟悉。
11:54
When you do research in some
of the poorest places in the world,
of the poorest places in the world,
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3107
当你在一些世界上
最贫穷的地方做研究时，
最贫穷的地方做研究时，
11:58
you have to go and visit
and see what's going on
and see what's going on
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你必须亲自实地调查，
看看那里的情况，
看看那里的情况，
12:00
and get some insight
about how the system works.
about how the system works.
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获得有关系统如何运转的
一些见解，
一些见解，
12:03
And on that particular day,
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之后就在那一天，
12:04
I'm in a place called Soweto
in South Africa,
in South Africa,
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我在南非一个叫索韦托的地方，
12:07
and I'm sitting in a place
that sells funeral insurance.
that sells funeral insurance.
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坐在一个卖丧葬保险的地方。
12:11
You know, in the US people spend
crazy amounts of money on weddings?
crazy amounts of money on weddings?
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你知道，在美国，
人们都是在婚礼上砸大把金钱。
人们都是在婚礼上砸大把金钱。
12:15
In South Africa, it's funerals.
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但在南非，是葬礼。
12:18
People spend up to a year
or two years of income on funerals.
or two years of income on funerals.
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人们会为葬礼
花掉一到两年的收入。
花掉一到两年的收入。
12:23
And I sit in this place --
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之后我坐在这里面——
12:26
by the way, before you judge the South
Africans as being irrational with this,
Africans as being irrational with this,
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顺便说一下，在你评价南非人
针对葬礼的行为“不理性”之前，
针对葬礼的行为“不理性”之前，
12:31
I just want to remind you
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我只想提醒你
12:32
that spending a lot of money
on funerals compared to weddings,
on funerals compared to weddings,
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相比花很多钱在婚礼上，
花大手笔在葬礼上
花大手笔在葬礼上
12:36
at least you know for sure
you only have one.
you only have one.
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至少你可以确认一生只有一次。
12:38
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
12:48
OK, so I sit in this place
that sells funeral insurance.
that sells funeral insurance.
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好吧，所以我坐在
卖丧葬保险的地方。
卖丧葬保险的地方。
12:53
And this guy comes in with his son --
his son is about 12 --
his son is about 12 --
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之后一个男子和他的儿子进来——
他的儿子大约 12 岁——
他的儿子大约 12 岁——
12:57
and he buys funeral insurance for a week.
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他买了一个礼拜的丧葬保险。
13:00
It will cover 90 percent
of his funeral expense
of his funeral expense
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如果他在未来 7 天内死亡，
13:03
only if he dies in the next seven days.
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能报销 90% 他的丧葬费用。
13:06
Right? These are very poor people,
they buy small amounts of insurance
they buy small amounts of insurance
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对吧？这些是非常贫穷的人们，
他们买非常小额的保险
他们买非常小额的保险
13:09
and small amount of soap and such.
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以及少量肥皂，诸如此类。
13:11
And he gets that certificate,
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1803
当他拿到那个保险证书，
13:13
and in a very ceremonious way,
he gives it to his son.
he gives it to his son.
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他非常隆重地将证书
递给了他儿子。
递给了他儿子。
13:16
And as he gives it to his son,
I think to myself, why the ceremony?
I think to myself, why the ceremony?
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当他递出的时候，
我在想，为什么这么隆重？
我在想，为什么这么隆重？
13:19
What is this father doing?
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这父亲在做什么？
13:21
Now, think about the breadwinner
that decides on that particular day
that decides on that particular day
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现在，想想这个养家糊口的人
在特定的那天
在特定的那天
13:25
to direct some money
into insurance or savings.
into insurance or savings.
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决定把钱放进保险或存款。
13:28
What is the family going to see tonight?
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这家人今晚将会经历什么？
13:31
They're going to see less.
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1570
他们将会看到更少的东西。
13:33
Right? At that level of poverty, there'll
be less food, less kerosene, less water --
be less food, less kerosene, less water --
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对吧？那样程度的贫困，
更少的食物、煤油，和水——
更少的食物、煤油，和水——
13:37
something less tonight.
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有些东西今晚会变少。
13:39
And what his father was doing
and what our coin was trying to do
and what our coin was trying to do
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之后他的父亲所为，
以及我们研究中硬币尝试做的
以及我们研究中硬币尝试做的
13:42
is to say, yes, there's less
food on the table,
food on the table,
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是为了说，没错，
餐桌上更少的食物，
餐桌上更少的食物，
13:45
but there's another activity.
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但是，还有另一个活动。
13:47
You see, what happened is, there are
many good, important economic activities,
many good, important economic activities,
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发生的事情是，
这里有不少很好且重要的经济活动，
这里有不少很好且重要的经济活动，
13:51
like savings and insurance,
that are invisible.
that are invisible.
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2528
例如存款、保险，
它们都是不可见的。
它们都是不可见的。
13:54
And now the question is:
How do we make them visible?
How do we make them visible?
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那现在的问题就是：
我们如何让它们变得可见？
我们如何让它们变得可见？
13:58
So let's go back to our rocket model.
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3732
所以让我们回到开始的火箭模型。
14:02
We have to, first of all,
look at the system
look at the system
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我们必须，首先，看看系统
14:04
and see where there's little things
we can fix, with friction,
we can fix, with friction,
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并且看看其中哪些地方，
利用摩擦，是我们可以改进的，
利用摩擦，是我们可以改进的，
14:08
where is there
that we can remove friction?
that we can remove friction?
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我们在哪里能够消除摩擦？
14:10
And then the next thing we want to do
is to think broadly about the system,
is to think broadly about the system,
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在这之后，我们想做的下一件事
就是广泛地思考这个系统，
就是广泛地思考这个系统，
14:14
and say: What other motivations
can we bring in?
can we bring in?
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并说：我们可以加入
什么其它的动力因素？
什么其它的动力因素？
14:18
And that's a much more difficult exercise,
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2022
这是一个困难很多的操作，
14:20
and we don't always know
what would work best.
what would work best.
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2522
并且我们不总是知道
什么最管用。
什么最管用。
14:22
Is it going to be money?
Is it going to be loss aversion?
Is it going to be loss aversion?
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会是钱吗？
会是损失厌恶吗？
会是损失厌恶吗？
14:25
Is it going to be
something that is visible?
something that is visible?
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会是某个可见的东西吗？
14:27
We don't know, and we have
to try different things.
to try different things.
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我们不知道，
所以我们要不断尝试不同的东西。
所以我们要不断尝试不同的东西。
14:30
We also have to realize that
our intuition sometimes misleads us.
our intuition sometimes misleads us.
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我们也需要意识到
我们的直觉有时会误导我们。
我们的直觉有时会误导我们。
14:33
We don't always necessarily know
what would work the best.
what would work the best.
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我们并不总是知道
怎么做效果最好。
怎么做效果最好。
14:37
So if we think about this gap
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1878
所以，如果我们回想开篇说的
14:39
between where we could be
and where we are,
and where we are,
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我们在哪个水平和
我们将能达到哪个水平的差距，
我们将能达到哪个水平的差距，
14:41
it's a really sad thing to see this gap
and to think about it.
and to think about it.
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看着这个差距，并且思考这件事，
真的非常令人难过。
真的非常令人难过。
14:44
But the good news is,
there's lots we can do.
there's lots we can do.
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但好消息是，
还有很多我们能做的事。
还有很多我们能做的事。
14:47
Some of the changes are easy,
some of the changes are more complex.
some of the changes are more complex.
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有的改变是简单的，
有的改变会更加复杂。
有的改变会更加复杂。
14:51
But if we'll attack each problem directly,
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但如果我们能直接击破每个问题，
14:53
not by just providing
more information to people
more information to people
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不仅是通过给人们提供更多信息，
14:57
but trying to change the friction,
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而且尝试着改变摩擦，
14:59
add motivation,
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加强动力，
15:00
I think we can ...
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我想我们可以……
15:01
Can we close the gap? No.
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1856
我们能弥补差距吗？不能。
15:03
But can we get much better?
Absolutely, yes.
Absolutely, yes.
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但我们能做得更好吗？
绝对可以。
绝对可以。
15:06
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
15:07
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com