ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Chris Anderson - Drone maker
Chris Anderson is an authority on emerging technologies and the cultures that surround them.

Why you should listen

Before Chris Anderson took over as editor of WIRED, he spent seven years at The Economist, where he worked as editor of both the technology and business sections. Anderson holds a degree in physics and has conducted research at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and has done stints at the leading journals Nature and Science.

(He is not, however, to be confused with the curator of TED, who has the same name.)

He's perhaps most famous for coining the term "the long tail," a whiteboard favorite that describes the business strategy of pursuing many little fish (versus a few big fish), as typified by both Amazon and Netflix. Anderson first introduced the term in an article written for WIRED in 2004; the book-length version, The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More, became a bestseller. He maintains a blog, The Long Tail, which he updates with impressive regularity.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com
TED2004

Chris Anderson: Technology's long tail

WIRED 杂志的 克里斯·安德森 谈技术的长尾

Filmed:
1,053,329 views

WIRED 杂志的编辑 克里斯·安德森 探索可行技术的四个阶段:设定合理的价格,获得市场份额,取代现有的技术,以及最终全面普及。
- Drone maker
Chris Anderson is an authority on emerging technologies and the cultures that surround them. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:25
I'd like to speak说话 about technology技术 trends趋势,
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我想谈谈技术的发展趋势。
00:29
which哪一个 is something that many许多 of you follow跟随 --
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那是你们很多人关注的问题
00:33
but we also follow跟随, for related有关 reasons原因.
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我们因为相关的原因也关注它。
00:37
Obviously明显, being存在 a technology技术 magazine杂志, technology技术 trends趋势
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显然,做为技术杂志,
00:40
are something that we write about and need to know about.
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技术趋势是我们需要撰写和了解的东西。
00:44
But also it's part部分 of being存在 any monthly每月一次 magazine杂志 --
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但是和所有月刊一样,
00:47
you live生活 in the future未来. And we have a long lead-time交货时间.
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你们读者生活在未来。所以我们需要提前准备。
00:50
We have to plan计划 issues问题 many许多 months个月 in advance提前;
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我们每一期杂志都是几个月前就需要准备,
00:52
we have to guess猜测 at what public上市 appetites胃口 are going to be six months个月,
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我们需要揣测六个月以后公众的阅读口味,
00:55
nine months个月 down the road. So we're in the forecasting预测 business商业.
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甚至九个月以后的。所以我们做的是预报工作。
01:00
We also, like a lot of companies公司, create创建 a product产品
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我们也和其他公司一样,创造产品
01:02
that's based基于 on technology技术 trends趋势.
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那是建立在技术走势的基础上的产品
01:03
In this case案件, ours我们的 is about ideas思路 and information信息, and, if we're lucky幸运,
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在这种情况下, 我们的产品是思想和信息,如果幸运的话
01:08
some entertainment娱乐. But the concept's概念的 quite相当 the same相同.
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还有一些娱乐,但是概念是一样的。
01:12
And so we have to understand理解
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所以我们需要了解
01:14
not only why tech's高科技的 important重要, where it's going,
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不但为什么某些技术是重要的,它们朝哪个方向发展
01:16
but also, very importantly重要的, when -- the timing定时 is everything.
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更重要的是,什么时候 ─ 时间就是一切
01:22
And it's interesting有趣, when you look at the predictions预测 made制作
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有趣的是,当你回顾一些预言
01:26
during the peak of the boom繁荣 in the 1990s, about e-commerce电子商务,
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那些在90年代技术爆炸高潮期关于电子商务的预言
01:31
or Internet互联网 traffic交通, or broadband宽带 adoption采用, or Internet互联网 advertising广告,
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或者有关互联网流量,宽带使用和网络广告的预言
01:36
they were all right -- they were just wrong错误 in time.
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他们都是正确的,只不过预言的时间不对
01:40
Almost几乎 every一切 one of those has come true真正 just a few少数 years年份 later后来.
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而且几乎所有这些都在几年以后成为现实。
01:43
But the difference区别 of a few少数 years年份 on stock-market股市 valuations估值
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但是几年时间在股票市场价值上造成的差异
01:47
is obviously明显 extreme极端. And that's why timing定时 is everything.
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显然是巨大的。所以说时间就是一切。
01:52
You've probably大概 seen看到 something like this before.
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你以前很可能也见过这个。
01:54
This is the classic经典 GartnerGartner公司 Hype炒作 Curve曲线, which哪一个 talks会谈 about
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这是经典的Gartner Hype曲线,讲述了
01:56
kind of the trajectory弹道 of a technology's技术的 lifespan寿命.
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技术生命周期的轨迹
01:59
And just for fun开玩笑, we put a bunch of technologies技术 on it,
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为了好玩,我们在上面放过很多技术
02:01
to show显示 whether是否 they were kind of rising升起 for the first high peak,
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来展示它们是正在迎接第一个高峰来临的上升期
02:05
or whether是否 they were about to crash紧急
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还是将要毁灭,
02:06
into the trough of disillusionment幻灭,
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跌入低谷期,
02:09
or rise上升 back in the slope of enlightenment启示, etc等等.
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或是回到攀升期,徘徊期
02:14
And this is one way to do technology技术 forecasting预测: get a sense
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这是预测技术走势的一种方法,估算一下
02:17
of where technology技术 is and then anticipate预料 the next下一个 upturn翻转.
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技术在哪里,然后预见下一个转机
02:21
We tend趋向 to do any technology技术 that we think is sufficiently充分地 important重要;
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我们倾向于分析任何我们认为足够重要的技术
02:24
we'll typically一般 do it twice两次. Once一旦, we want to do it first.
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我们通常做两次,第一次是为了抢先
02:28
We want to be the first to do it, for the geeks怪才 who appreciate欣赏 that,
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第一次是为那些喜欢获取这些信息的奇客而做,
02:31
we'll catch抓住 it right there at the technology-trigger技术触发.
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我们会在萌芽期抓住了这些新技术。
02:33
You can see in 1997, we put LinuxLinux的 on the cover.
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你们可以看到我们把 Linux 放在了1997的封面上
02:37
But then it comes back. And sufficiently充分地 big technologies技术
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然而它们又会回来。任何重大技术
02:41
are going to hit击中 the mainstream主流, and they're going to burst爆裂 out.
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都会进入主流,然后爆发。
02:43
And then it's time to do it again. Last year.
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所以去年, 就是再做一次的好时机
02:48
And that's one way that we try to time technology技术 trends趋势.
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这就是我们为技术趋势计时的一种办法。
02:52
I'd like to talk about a way of thinking思维 about technology技术 trends趋势
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我还想说说怎样思考技术趋势。
02:55
that I call my "grand盛大 unified统一 theory理论 of predicting预测 the future未来,"
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我可以将之称为预言未来的宏大统一理论,
02:59
but it's closer接近 to a petite娇小 unified统一 theory理论 of predicting预测 the future未来.
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但是其实它更接近预言未来的袖珍统一理论。
03:05
It's based基于 on the presumption假定, the observation意见 even,
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它是基于假定甚至观察。
03:08
that all important重要 technologies技术 go through通过 four stages阶段 in their life --
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那就是: 所有的重要技术都经历过四个阶段--
03:13
at least最小 one of the four stages阶段, sometimes有时 all four of the stages阶段.
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至少四个中的一个阶段,有时是所有四个阶段。
03:17
And at each one of these stages阶段, can be seen看到 as a collision碰撞 --
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而其中的每个阶段都可以被看做一次撞击。
03:22
a collision碰撞 with something else其他 --
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一次与其他的事物的撞击--
03:25
for example, a critical危急 price-line价格行 that changes变化 both the technology技术
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比如,一个临界价格线会改变技术
03:29
and also changes变化 its effect影响 on the world世界. It's an inflection拐点 point.
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和它对世界的影响。它是一个转变的契机。
03:33
And these are the inflection拐点 points that tell you
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这些契机会告诉你
03:36
what the next下一个 chapter章节 in that technology's技术的 life is going to be,
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这项技术的下一个篇章是什么,
03:40
and maybe how you can do something about it.
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以及你可以对它做些什么。
03:44
The first is the critical危急 price价钱.
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第一阶段就是临界价格
03:46
The first stage阶段 in a technology's技术的 advance提前
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技术发展的第一个阶段是
03:48
is that it'll它会 fall秋季 below下面 a critical危急 price价钱.
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它的价格降到临界价格以下。
03:52
After it falls下降 below下面 a critical危急 price价钱, it will tend趋向,
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当它低于临界价格后,
03:54
if it's successful成功, to rise上升 above以上 a critical危急 mass, a penetration渗透.
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如果它是一种成功的技术, 就会超越临界量, 形成突破。
03:59
Many许多 technologies技术, at that point, displace顶替 another另一个 technology技术,
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很多技术在各这个时候就取代了另一个技术,
04:05
and that's another另一个 important重要 point.
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这也是另外一个重点。
04:09
And then finally最后, a lot of technologies技术 commoditize商品化.
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最终,很多技术商品化了。
04:12
Towards the end结束 of their life, they become成为 nearly几乎 free自由.
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接近它们生命周期的尾声时,它们就几乎成了免费的了。
04:15
Each one of those is an opportunity机会 to do something about it;
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这其中, 每个阶段都提供了机会给我们。
04:18
it's an opportunity机会 for the technology技术 to change更改.
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它是一种技术转折的机会。
04:20
And even if you missed错过, you know, the first boom繁荣 of Wi-Fi无线上网 --
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即便是你错过了第一阶段,比如第一波 Wi-Fi 热潮
04:24
you know, Wi-Fi无线上网 did the critical危急 price价钱, it did the critical危急 mass,
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你知道,Wi-Fi经历了临界价格和临界量两个阶段
04:28
but hasn't有没有 doneDONE displacement移位 yet然而, and hasn't有没有 doneDONE free自由 yet然而 --
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但是它还完成取代阶段,更还没去到免费的阶段 ─
04:31
there's still more opportunity机会 in that.
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所以其中还有机会。
04:33
I'd like to demonstrate演示 what I mean by this
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我想用DVD的故事来说明
04:35
by telling告诉 the story故事 of the DVDDVD,
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我想表达的意思。
04:37
which哪一个 is a technology技术 which哪一个 has doneDONE all of these.
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因为这个技术已经经历了所有这些阶段。
04:40
The DVDDVD, as you know, was introduced介绍 in the mid-中-1990s
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众所周知,DVD 在九十年代中期开始进入市场。
04:43
and it was quite相当 expensive昂贵. But you can see that by 1998,
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那时它还很贵。但是到了1998年,
04:48
it had fallen堕落 below下面 400 dollars美元, and 400 dollars美元 was a psychological心理 threshold.
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它的价格跌到了400美元以下,400美元是个关键的心理价位,
04:53
And it started开始 to take off. And you can see that the units单位
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于是它开始腾飞了,你们可以看见产品销量
04:57
started开始 to trend趋势 up, the hidden inflection拐点 point -- it was taking服用 off.
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呈上升趋势,这是一个潜在的转折点,从此迅速上升。
05:03
The next下一个 thing it hit击中, a year later后来, was critical危急 mass. In this case案件,
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一年以后,它进入下一个阶段,也就是临界量。
05:08
20 percent百分 is often经常 a good proxy代理 for critical危急 mass in a household家庭.
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通常,20% 的家庭拥有量是技术达到临界量的一个合理标志。
05:12
And what's interesting有趣 here
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有趣的是
05:14
is that something else其他 took off along沿 with it: home-theater家庭电影院 units单位.
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另一个随之腾飞的是家庭影院设备
05:19
Suddenly突然 you have a DVDDVD in the house;
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突然你家里有了DVD
05:21
you've got high-quality高质量 digital数字 video视频;
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你有了高质量的数字化视频图象,
05:23
you have a reason原因 to have a big-screen大屏幕 television电视;
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你也就有了购买大屏幕电视的理由
05:25
you have a reason原因 for Dolby杜比 5.1 surround-sound环绕声.
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有了购买杜比 5.1 环绕立体声系统的理由。
05:29
And maybe you have reasons原因 for starting开始 to connect them,
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你也有了把它们连在一起
05:31
and bring带来 the rest休息 of your entertainment娱乐 in.
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并也连接起其他娱乐设备的理由。
05:33
What's interesting有趣 also is -- note注意 that NetflixNetflix公司 was founded成立 in 1999.
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有趣的是,Netflix 是1999 年成立的。
05:37
Reed芦苇 Hastings黑斯廷斯 is here. He clearly明确地 saw that that was a moment时刻,
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Reed Hastings 今天也在这里。他当时清楚地看到了这一刻,
05:42
that was an inflection拐点 point that he could do something with.
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认识到这是他可以有所作为的转折点,
05:46
The next下一个 phase it hit击中 was displacement移位.
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下一个阶段就是取代,
05:48
You can see around 2001 it finally最后 out-sold外售 the VCR录像机.
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你们可以看到,到了2001年,它的销售量超越了录像机
05:52
And here too, you can see the implications启示 in the world世界 at large.
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从这里,你可以纵观这在全球的影响
05:58
NetflixNetflix公司 was right -- the NetflixNetflix公司 model模型 could capitalize利用 on the DVDDVD
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Netflix 是对的,Netflix 可以用一种
06:02
in a way that the video-rental视频租赁 stores商店 couldn't不能.
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录像出租店无法做到的模式来经营DVD。
06:05
Among其中 the DVD'sDVD的 many许多 assets资产 is that it's very small;
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DVD众多的特点之一就是它很小
06:08
you can stick it in the mailer信封 and post岗位 it cheaply廉价地.
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你可以把它放在信件里,很便宜地邮寄。
06:11
That gave an advantage优点; that was an implication意义
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这就提供了优势;这种技术崛起的含义
06:15
of the technology's技术的 rise上升 that wasn't obvious明显 to everybody每个人.
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并不是那么显而易见的。
06:19
And then finally最后, DVDsDVD光盘 are approaching接近 free自由.
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最后呢,DVD机几乎接近免费。
06:22
There's a company公司 called Apex顶尖, a no-name无名 Chinese中文 firm公司,
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有一个叫Apex的公司,一个默默无闻的中国公司。
06:24
who has, several一些 times in the past过去 year, been the number-one第一
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在过去的几年里,已经好几次成了DVD
06:28
DVDDVD seller卖家 in America美国. Their average平均 price价钱, for last year, was 48 dollars美元.
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在美国销售的大户。去年它们的平均价格是48美元。
06:35
You're aware知道的 of the
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你大概也知道
06:37
perhaps也许 apocryphal杜撰 Wal-Mart沃尔玛 stampede踩踏
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沃尔玛曾用难以置信的
06:41
over the 30-dollar-美元 DVDDVD.
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30美元的低价DVD机来吸引大促销时的狂潮。
06:45
But they're getting得到 very, very cheap低廉,
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但是,它们的确变得非常便宜。
06:47
and look at the interesting有趣 implication意义 of it. As they get cheaper便宜,
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结果呢,当它们变得更为便宜,
06:51
the premium额外费用 brands品牌, the Sonys索尼 and such这样, are losing失去 market市场 share分享,
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高档的品牌,比如Sony, 就失去了市场份额,
06:54
and the no-names没有名字, the Apexes顶点, are gaining取得 them.
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而无名的Apex们,则会获取这些市场份额。
06:56
They're being存在 commodified商品化, and that's what happens发生
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它们被商品化了,这就是
06:58
when things go to zero. It's a tough强硬 market市场 out there.
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当事物触及最低点时会发生的事情。市场竞争是残酷的。
07:03
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
07:06
Now they've他们已经 introduced介绍 these four ways方法 of looking at technology技术,
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现在,介绍了看待技术的四种方法:
07:09
these four stages阶段 of technology's技术的 life.
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技术的四个发展阶段。
07:11
I'd like to talk about some other technologies技术 out there,
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我再想说一下另外一些技术,
07:14
just technologies技术 on our radar雷达 -- and I'll use this lens镜片,
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我们一直关注的一些技术,我将用这个视角,
07:17
these four, as a way to kind of tell you
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这四个发展阶段,来告诉你
07:19
where each one of those technologies技术 is in its development发展.
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每一种技术在发展的哪个阶段。
07:22
They're not necessarily一定 the top-最佳-10 technologies技术 out there --
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它们不一定是最顶尖的前10种技术
07:25
they're just examples例子 of technologies技术
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它们只是
07:26
that are in each one of these periods.
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正处于其中一种阶段的例子。
07:29
But I think that the implications启示 of them approaching接近
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但是我觉得琢磨它们的走向
07:32
these crossovers分频器, these intersections十字路口, are interesting有趣 to think about.
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这些十字路口,这些转折的交叉口,是很有趣味的。
07:35
Start开始 with gene基因 sequencing测序.
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先从基因测序说起
07:37
As you probably大概 know, gene基因 sequencing测序 -- in a large part部分,
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如你所知,大部分的基因测序
07:40
because it's built内置 on computers电脑 -- is falling落下 in price价钱
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是在计算机上做的,因此价格正在
07:43
at a kind of a Moore's摩尔定律 Law-like椒样 level水平.
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象摩尔定义预测的那样下跌
07:45
It is now possible可能 -- will be possible可能,
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现在这已经是可能的 ─ 将是可能的,
07:48
and if Craig克雷格 Venter腹部 indeed确实 comes today今天,
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如果 Craig Venter 今天来了的话
07:51
he may可能 tell you something about this --
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他会告诉你
07:52
to sequence序列 the human人的 genome基因组 for 40 million百万 dollars美元 by the end结束 of this year.
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到今年年底,只要4千万美元就可以完成人类基因排序
07:57
That's as opposed反对 to billions数十亿 just a few少数 years年份 ago.
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在几年前,这需要几十亿。
08:02
You know, our ability能力 to capture捕获 the tools工具 of creation创建
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你们知道,我们已经越来越接近
08:07
is getting得到 closer接近 and closer接近.
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掌握创造天地万物的工具
08:09
What's interesting有趣 is that at the same相同 time, the number of genes基因
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有趣的是,我们发现的基因数量也
08:12
that we're discovering发现 is rising升起 very quickly很快.
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迅速地增长
08:14
Each one of these genes基因 has potential潜在 diagnostic诊断 test测试.
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每一种基因都有诊断试验的潜力。
08:17
There will come a day
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终有一天
08:19
when you can have hundreds数以百计 of thousands数千 of tests测试 doneDONE, very cheaply廉价地,
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当成千上万的试验可以很廉价地完成时,
08:23
if you want to know. You can learn学习 about your own拥有 mosaic镶嵌.
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如果你感兴趣,你可以了解你的基因镶嵌。
08:28
Here's这里的 another另一个 technology技术 that's approaching接近 a critical危急 price价钱.
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这里是另一个技术接近临界价值的例子。
08:31
This is a fascinating迷人 research研究 from WHO that shows节目 the effect影响
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一个世界卫生组织令人惊喜的研究展现了
08:35
of generic通用 drugs毒品 on anti-retroviral抗逆转录病毒 drug药物 compounds化合物 and cocktails鸡尾酒.
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非专利药对治疗艾滋病的抗逆转录病毒复合药和鸡尾酒药的影响。
08:42
In January一月 2000, the price价钱 was 10,000 dollars美元, or 27 dollars美元 a day.
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2000年1月时,它的价格是1万美元,也就是27美元一天
08:48
The generics仿制药 came来了 in, first in Brazil巴西 and elsewhere别处,
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非专利药最先是从巴西引进的,
08:51
and the effect影响 was just dramatic戏剧性 on pricing价钱.
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它对价格的影响是引入注目的,
08:55
Today今天 it's less than 50 cents a day.
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今天它的价格已经是低于50美分一天。
09:00
And what's interesting有趣 is if you look at the price价钱 elasticity弹性,
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最有意思的是,如果你观察价格弹性,
09:05
if you look at the correlation相关 between之间 these two,
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如果你观察两者的相互关系,
09:08
as the anti-retrovirals抗逆转录病毒 come down, the number of people you can treat对待
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抗逆转录病药的价格下降,能够得到治疗
09:11
goes radically根本 up. And the Clinton克林顿 Foundation基础 and WHO
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的人数就急剧上升。克林顿基金会和世界卫生组织
09:17
believe that they can treat对待 three million百万 people worldwide全世界 by 2005 --
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相信到2005年他们可以给全世界3百万人提供治疗--
09:21
two million百万 in sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲.
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其中2百万在撒哈拉以南的非洲
09:23
And the falling落下 price价钱 of drugs毒品 has a lot to do with that.
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药价的降低对这起到了很大的作用。
09:26
LinuxLinux的 is another另一个 good example.
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Linux 是另外一个例子。
09:28
Now we've我们已经 switched交换的 to critical危急 mass.
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现在我们换过来讲临界量。
09:30
These are now technologies技术 that are hitting critical危急 mass.
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有一些技术现在正即将到达临界量。
09:32
If you look here, here's这里的 LinuxLinux的 in red, and it's hit击中 20 percent百分.
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你看这里,Linux是红色的,它到达了20%,
09:38
Interestingly有趣的是, it's doneDONE a crossover交叉 before,
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有趣的是,它们以前也交叉过,
09:40
but not the crossovers分频器 that matter.
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但是那个交叉并不重要,
09:42
The crossover交叉 that's going to matter is the one with the blue蓝色.
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重要的是和蓝线的交叉。
09:45
But you can look and see the direction方向 those lines线 are going,
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但是你可以看见这些曲线的走向
09:47
you can see that at the 20 percent百分, it's now taken采取 seriously认真地.
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你可以看见到了20%,它就显得像模像样了。
09:50
It's not just for the geeks怪才 any more.
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它不再只是奇客专用的了
09:54
That is, I imagine想像, what people in Redmond雷德蒙
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我想,这就是让在Redmond的人们
09:56
wake唤醒 up in the middle中间 of the night thinking思维 about.
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半夜里辗转难眠的问题。
09:58
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:00
Another另一个 technology技术 that we see all around us out here is hybrid混合动力 cars汽车.
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另外一个在我们身边存在的技术是混合动力轿车。
10:04
I don't know whether是否 anybody任何人 has a Prius普锐斯 2004, but they're fantastic奇妙.
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我不知道你们中间谁有2004年的Prius车,它们真很不错。
10:07
And if you look at the trends趋势 here, by about 2008 --
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你们看看这里的趋势:到2008年,
10:11
and I don't think this is a crazy forecast预测 --
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我觉得这并不是什么疯狂的预测,
10:13
they'll他们会 be two percent百分 of auto汽车 sales销售.
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它们会占到汽车销售的百分之二。
10:15
Two percent百分 isn't 20 percent百分, but in the car汽车 business商业,
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百分之二虽然不是百分之二十,但是对于进程缓慢的汽车行业,
10:18
which哪一个 is slow moving移动, that's huge巨大; that's arrival到达.
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这就是巨大的发展,而它正在降临。
10:24
At two percent百分, you start开始 seeing眼看 them on the roads道路 everywhere到处.
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到达百分之二后,它们会在路上随处可见。
10:27
And what's interesting有趣 about the hybrids混合动力车 taking服用 off
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而关于混合动力轿车的腾飞最有意思的是
10:31
is you've now introduced介绍 electric电动 motors马达 to the automobile汽车 industry行业.
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人们将电动马达引入了汽车工业。
10:35
It's the first radical激进 change更改 in automobile汽车 technology技术 in 100 years年份.
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这是100年来汽车工业技术的首要重大改变。
10:39
And once一旦 you have electric电动 motors马达, you can do anything:
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而有了电动马达以后,你可以做任何事情:
10:42
you can change更改 the structure结构体 of the car汽车 in any way you want.
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你可以随意地改变汽车的构造
10:45
You can have regenerative再生 braking制动; you can have drive-by-wire驱动线控;
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你可以做再生制动,你可以做电传线控,
10:48
you can have replaceable更换 body身体 shapes形状 --
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你可以做可替换的车身 ─
10:50
it's a little thing that starts启动 with a hybrid混合动力,
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从混合动力轿车这一小事开始,
10:52
but it can lead to a whole整个 new era时代 of the car汽车.
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它会引导汽车业走向一个新的时代。
10:55
Voice语音 Over IPIP is something you may可能 have heard听说 something about.
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你也许听说过在IP网上传输话音
10:58
Again, it's kind of coming未来 out of nowhere无处;
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这又是一个不知从哪儿冒出来的东西,
10:59
it's a little hard to use right now.
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现在还不太好用。
11:01
There's a company公司 created创建 by the KazaaKazaa的 founders创始人 called SkypeSkype的.
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Kazza 的创始人建立了一个公司叫 Skype。
11:05
Look at these numbers数字. They launched推出 it in August八月 of last year;
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来看一下数字,他们是去年8月启动的,
11:08
they already已经 have nearly几乎 four million百万 registered注册 users用户 --
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现在已经有了4百万注册用户。
11:13
that's critical危急 mass.
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这就是临界量。
11:16
And the same相同 thing's事情的 happening事件 on the carrier支架 side.
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同样的事情在电讯公司也发生了
11:19
You're looking at IPIP taking服用 over from some of the traditional传统
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你可以看到IP正在取代传统的
11:23
telecom电信 standards标准. This is a tipping小费 point --
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电讯标准,这是一个引爆点
11:27
if Malcolm's马尔科姆的 here, forgive原谅 me -- and it's going to change更改 the economics经济学,
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如果 Malcom 在这里的话,请原谅我,这将会改变
11:31
and the speed速度, and the players玩家 in the industry行业.
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这个行业的经济模式,速度,和玩家。
11:35
It's going to look a little bit like that.
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这个看上去有点象那样的情况。
11:41
And finally最后, free自由. Free自由 is really, really interesting有趣.
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最终,免费。免费是真的非常非常有意思。
11:47
Free自由 is something that comes with digital数字, because
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免费是随数字化而产生的
11:53
the reproduction再生产 costs成本 are essentially实质上 free自由. It comes with IPIP,
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因为复制的成本基本上是免费的,免费随着IP而来,
11:59
because it's such这样 an efficient高效 protocol协议. It comes with fiber纤维 optics光学,
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因为这是一个非常有效的协议。 免费从光纤技术而来,
12:02
because there's so much bandwidth带宽.
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因为它带来了那么多的带宽。
12:03
Free自由 is really, you know, the gift礼品 of Silicon Valley to the world世界.
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你要知道,免费才是硅谷带给世界的礼物。
12:08
It's an economic经济 force; it's a technical技术 force.
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这是一股经济力量,也是一股技术力量。
12:11
It's a deflationary通货紧缩 force, if not handled处理 right.
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如果处理不当, 还会是一股通缩力量。
12:15
It is abundance丰富, as opposed反对 to scarcity缺乏.
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这是一种丰盛而不是稀缺。
12:18
Free自由 is probably大概 the most interesting有趣 thing.
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免费大概是最有意思的事情。
12:20
And here you have just the number of songs歌曲
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这是你在一个硬盘上
12:23
that can be stored存储 on a hard drive驾驶.
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能储存的歌曲的数量。
12:25
You know, there could be a film's电影的 [unclear不明] there,
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你知道那还可以用来存电影[此处不清],
12:29
but it's basically基本上, every一切 song歌曲 ever made制作 could be stored存储
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说到底,到2008年,这世界上所有的歌都可以被储存在
12:32
on 400 dollars美元 worth价值 of storage存储 by 2008. It takes that entire整个 element元件,
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一个价值400美元的存储器里。所以,用来储存歌曲,
12:39
the physical物理 element元件, of songs歌曲 off the table.
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的物理要素已经可以忽略不计了。
12:43
And you've seen看到 the numbers数字.
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你也看过这些数字了。
12:44
I mean, you know, the music音乐 industry行业 is imploding
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我的意思是说,整个音乐界正在垮掉,
12:48
in front面前 of our very eyes眼睛, and Hollywood's好莱坞 worried担心 as well.
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就在我们眼皮底下, 好莱坞也很担心。
12:51
They're facing面对 a force that they haven't没有 faced面对 before.
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他们正在面临一种前所未有的压力。
12:56
And their response响应 is draconian严厉的, and not necessarily一定
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而他们的反映是苛刻的,但那并不能
13:03
the one that's going to get them out of this.
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把他们从中解救出来。
13:07
And finally最后, I'll give you one last example of free自由 --
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最后,我再给你们一个免费的例子
13:10
perhaps也许 the most powerful强大 of all. I mentioned提到 fiber纤维 optics光学 --
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也是最有力量的一个。我提到过光纤:
13:13
their abundance丰富 tends趋向 to make things free自由.
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他们的繁荣会很多东西变得免费。
13:15
This is the price价钱 of a phone电话 call to India印度 per minute分钟.
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这是打到印度的国际长途每分钟的价格,
13:19
And what's interesting有趣 is that it was just 1990
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有趣的是,这是1990年的价格,
13:22
when it was more than two dollars美元 a minute分钟.
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那时的价格是每分钟两块多美元。
13:25
India印度 had, still has, a regulated调控 phone电话 system系统 and so did we.
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印度和我们一样有常规的电话系统
13:33
It was surprisingly出奇 non-innovative非创新, moved移动 very slowly慢慢地,
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它令人吃惊地缺乏创造力,发展缓慢
13:38
but then there was just so much fiber纤维 out there,
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然而因为光纤多得到处都是了
13:41
you couldn't不能 hold保持 back, and look how quickly很快 the price价钱 fell下跌.
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你想不发展也不行,所以你看价格跌得非常快。
13:45
It's seven cents a minute分钟, in many许多 cases.
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通常现在是7美分一分钟了
13:49
And the consequence后果 of cheap低廉 phone电话 calling调用, free自由 phone电话 calling调用,
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而便宜电话费甚至免费电话引发的结果呢
13:54
to India印度, is the pissed-off惹恼了 programmer程序员, is the outsourcing外包.
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是怨气冲天的计算机程序员,是工作外包,
13:59
It is probably大概 one of the most dramatic戏剧性 shifts转变 in globalization全球化
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这大概是全球化中最戏剧性的转变,
14:03
and one of the most powerful强大 economic经济 tools工具
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也是如今我们世界上最有力的
14:06
that we're seeing眼看 in our world世界 today今天.
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经济工具。
14:07
The force of India印度, and then China中国, and any other country国家
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印度,中国,和任何其他国家的人
14:12
that can contact联系 our markets市场
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都可以联络我们的市场。
14:14
and will work with our companies公司 -- because the communications通讯 are free自由 --
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通讯免费使得他们可以和我们的公司合作 ─ 这股影响力
14:19
is just beginning开始 to be felt.
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才刚刚被我们所知。
14:21
And I think that's probably大概 one
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而我认为,这也许就是
14:22
of the most important重要 technology技术 trends趋势 that we're looking at today今天.
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我们今天应该关注的最重要的技术趋势。
14:24
Thank you.
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谢谢。
Translated by Jenny Yang
Reviewed by Haohao Chen

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Chris Anderson - Drone maker
Chris Anderson is an authority on emerging technologies and the cultures that surround them.

Why you should listen

Before Chris Anderson took over as editor of WIRED, he spent seven years at The Economist, where he worked as editor of both the technology and business sections. Anderson holds a degree in physics and has conducted research at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and has done stints at the leading journals Nature and Science.

(He is not, however, to be confused with the curator of TED, who has the same name.)

He's perhaps most famous for coining the term "the long tail," a whiteboard favorite that describes the business strategy of pursuing many little fish (versus a few big fish), as typified by both Amazon and Netflix. Anderson first introduced the term in an article written for WIRED in 2004; the book-length version, The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More, became a bestseller. He maintains a blog, The Long Tail, which he updates with impressive regularity.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com