ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Joy - Technologist and futurist
The co-founder of Sun Microsystems, Bill Joy has, in recent years, turned his attention to the biggest questions facing humanity: Where are we going? What could go wrong? What's the next great thing?

Why you should listen

In 2003, Bill Joy left Sun Microsystems, the computer company he cofounded, with no definite plans. He'd spent the late 1970s and early 1980s working on Berkeley UNIX (he wrote the vi editor), and the next decades building beautiful high-performance workstations at Sun. Always, he'd been a kind of polite engineer-gadfly -- refusing to settle for subpar code or muddled thinking.

In 2000, with a landmark cover story in Wired called "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," Joy began to share his larger concerns with the world. A careful observer of the nanotech industry that was growing up around his own industry, Joy saw a way forward that, frankly, frightened him. He saw a very plausible future in which our own creations supplanted us -- if not out and out killed us (e.g., the gray goo problem). His proposed solution: Proceed with caution.

Joy's now a partner at KPMG, where he reviews business plans in education, environmental improvement and pandemic defense.

More profile about the speaker
Bill Joy | Speaker | TED.com
TED2006

Bill Joy: What I'm worried about, what I'm excited about

比爾.喬伊思索未來

Filmed:
553,237 views

科技人比爾.喬伊同時也是未來學家,探討了幾項對人類影響重大的隱憂,以及一些對於健康、教育和未來科技的希望。
- Technologist and futurist
The co-founder of Sun Microsystems, Bill Joy has, in recent years, turned his attention to the biggest questions facing humanity: Where are we going? What could go wrong? What's the next great thing? Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:18
What technology技術 can we really apply應用 to reducing減少 global全球 poverty貧窮?
0
0
6000
什麼樣的科技能讓我們真正減少全球的貧窮問題?
00:24
And what I found發現 was quite相當 surprising奇怪.
1
6000
4000
我發現了令人驚訝的答案。
00:28
We started開始 looking at things like death死亡 rates利率 in the 20th century世紀,
2
10000
3000
我們自二十世紀開始觀察死亡率,
00:31
and how they'd他們會 been improved改善, and very simple簡單 things turned轉身 out.
3
13000
3000
也研究如何降低死亡率,我們發現了一些很簡單的事情。
00:34
You'd think maybe antibiotics抗生素 made製作 more difference區別 than clean清潔 water,
4
16000
3000
你或許會認為抗生素比乾淨水源來得重要,
00:37
but it's actually其實 the opposite對面.
5
19000
3000
但結果恰恰相反。
00:40
And so very simple簡單 things -- off-the-shelf現成的 technologies技術
6
22000
3000
就是這麼簡單的事,這種現成的科技,
00:43
that we could easily容易 find on the then-early那麼早 Web捲筒紙 --
7
25000
5000
隨手可得,還用不著網路,
00:48
would clearly明確地 make a huge巨大 difference區別 to that problem問題.
8
30000
5000
就能顯著地改善問題。
00:53
But I also, in looking at more powerful強大 technologies技術
9
35000
4000
但我同時也在注意一些更具威力的科技、
00:57
and nanotechnology納米技術 and genetic遺傳 engineering工程 and other new emerging新興
10
39000
5000
奈米科技、基因工程和其他新興事物
01:02
kind of digital數字 technologies技術, became成為 very concerned關心
11
44000
4000
像是數位科技等,我非常擔心這些科技
01:06
about the potential潛在 for abuse濫用.
12
48000
4000
會流於濫用。
01:10
If you think about it, in history歷史, a long, long time ago
13
52000
5000
如果你去回想很久以前,在過往的歷史中,
01:15
we dealt處理 with the problem問題 of an individual個人 abusing濫用 another另一個 individual個人.
14
57000
3000
當我們看到有一個人虐待另一個人的時候,
01:18
We came來了 up with something -- the Ten Commandments戒律: Thou shalt not kill.
15
60000
3000
我們就設立了像是十誡的東西來告誡人們:你不可以殺人。
01:21
That's a, kind of a one-on-one一對一 thing.
16
63000
2000
這像是一對一的機制。
01:23
We organized有組織的 into cities城市. We had many許多 people.
17
65000
4000
後來城市發展起來,人數變多了,
01:27
And to keep the many許多 from tyrannizing欺壓 the one,
18
69000
4000
而為了防止多數欺凌少數,
01:31
we came來了 up with concepts概念 like individual個人 liberty自由.
19
73000
4000
我們設置了像是保護個人自由的觀念。
01:35
And then, to have to deal合同 with large groups,
20
77000
1000
而後,為了處理更大的族群,
01:36
say, at the nation-state民族國家 level水平,
21
78000
3000
像是國家或州的層級,
01:39
and we had to have mutual相互 non-aggression互不侵犯,
22
81000
2000
我們必須讓雙方協議互不侵略,
01:41
or through通過 a series系列 of conflicts衝突, we eventually終於 came來了 to
23
83000
4000
或是在經歷一連串的衝突後,
01:45
a rough international國際 bargain討價還價 to largely大部分 keep the peace和平.
24
87000
6000
才能達成國際間的協議以維持和平。
01:51
But now we have a new situation情況, really what people call
25
93000
5000
但是現在我們面臨了一個新的情況,就是人們所謂的
01:56
an asymmetric非對稱 situation情況, where technology技術 is so powerful強大
26
98000
3000
非對稱情況,運用科技這種強而有力的工具,
01:59
that it extends擴展 beyond a nation-state民族國家.
27
101000
4000
就可以超越國家界限。
02:03
It's not the nation-states民族國家 that have potential潛在 access訪問
28
105000
3000
具有這種潛在巨大毁滅力的
02:06
to mass destruction毀壞, but individuals個人.
29
108000
5000
不是國家,而是個人。
02:11
And this is a consequence後果 of the fact事實 that these new technologies技術 tend趨向 to be digital數字.
30
113000
5000
而這就是新科技數位化的結果。
02:16
We saw genome基因組 sequences序列.
31
118000
4000
我們看過基因序列,
02:20
You can download下載 the gene基因 sequences序列
32
122000
1000
如果你想要,你可以從網路上下載這些
02:21
of pathogens病原體 off the Internet互聯網 if you want to,
33
123000
4000
基因序列或是病原體資料,
02:25
and clearly明確地 someone有人 recently最近 -- I saw in a science科學 magazine雜誌 --
34
127000
5000
最近有人說--我從一本科學雜誌上看到--
02:30
they said, well, the 1918 flu流感 is too dangerous危險 to FedEx聯邦快遞 around.
35
132000
5000
若將1918年的流感病毒四處傳播的話,將是一件很危險的事。
02:35
If people want to use it in their labs實驗室 for working加工 on research研究,
36
137000
3000
假如有人想在他的實驗室裡研究1918年流感病毒,
02:38
just reconstruct重建 it yourself你自己,
37
140000
3000
只要靠自己就可以重建當時的傳染狀況,
02:41
because, you know, it might威力 break打破 in FedEx聯邦快遞.
38
143000
4000
因為,這可能會因迅速傳播而爆發開來。
02:45
So that this is possible可能 to do this is not deniable可否認.
39
147000
5000
而這種可能性已是不可避免的了。
02:50
So individuals個人 in small groups super-empowered超授權 by access訪問 to these
40
152000
5000
所以,如果有一群有心人誤用了某些科技資訊,
02:55
kinds of self-replicating自我複製 technologies技術, whether是否 it be biological生物
41
157000
5000
從而自行複製出像是生化或是其他威力強大的科技,
03:00
or other, are clearly明確地 a danger危險 in our world世界.
42
162000
3000
對我們的世界而言明顯是種威脅。
03:03
And the danger危險 is that they can cause原因 roughly大致 what's a pandemic流感大流行.
43
165000
4000
其中的危險就在於他們可能釀成流行病。
03:07
And we really don't have experience經驗 with pandemics流行病,
44
169000
3000
由於我們處理流行疾病的經驗不足,
03:10
and we're also not very good as a society社會 at acting演戲
45
172000
3000
我們在面對從未接觸過的疾病時,
03:13
to things we don't have direct直接 and sort分類 of gut-level腸道級 experience經驗 with.
46
175000
4000
也顯得應變能力不足,
03:17
So it's not in our nature性質 to pre-act預行為.
47
179000
4000
所以我們根本就不知道該如何去防範。
03:21
And in this case案件, piling on more technology技術 doesn't solve解決 the problem問題,
48
183000
5000
而這種情況下,再多的科技也是無濟於事,
03:26
because it only super-empowers超如虎添翼 people more.
49
188000
3000
因為這只會讓有心人更加誤用科技而已。
03:29
So the solution has to be, as people like Russell羅素 and Einstein愛因斯坦
50
191000
4000
想像一下像羅素和愛因斯坦等人,
03:33
and others其他 imagine想像 in a conversation會話 that existed存在
51
195000
2000
如果他們能在二十世界初期,
03:35
in a much stronger form形成, I think, early in the 20th century世紀,
52
197000
4000
進行一段精彩的對話,
03:39
that the solution had to be not just the head but the heart.
53
201000
3000
他們提出的解決方案就不會只是治標,而是要治本。
03:42
You know, public上市 policy政策 and moral道德 progress進展.
54
204000
5000
隨著公共政策和道德觀的進步,
03:47
The bargain討價還價 that gives us civilization文明 is a bargain討價還價 to not use power功率.
55
209000
6000
現代人得以享有現代文明社會的條件,就是不能使用武力。
03:53
We get our individual個人 rights權利 by society社會 protecting保護 us from others其他
56
215000
3000
社會賦予我們每個人權利去保護我們自己,
03:56
not doing everything they can do but largely大部分 doing only what is legal法律.
57
218000
5000
不是為所欲為的權利,但只要是合法的,都可以去做。
04:01
And so to limit限制 the danger危險 of these new things, we have to limit限制,
58
223000
5000
我們必須控制新科技可能帶來的危險,
04:06
ultimately最終, the ability能力 of individuals個人
59
228000
2000
我們終究必須限制個人
04:08
to have access訪問, essentially實質上, to pandemic流感大流行 power功率.
60
230000
3000
探取引發流行疾病的力量。
04:11
We also have to have sensible明智 defense防禦, because no limitation局限性
61
233000
4000
同時我們也必須要有合理的防禦,
04:15
is going to prevent避免 a crazy person from doing something.
62
237000
3000
因為沒有什麼能限制得了一個瘋狂的人做些什麼。
04:18
And you know, and the troubling令人不安 thing is that
63
240000
2000
如你所知,麻煩的就是
04:20
it's much easier更輕鬆 to do something bad than to defend保衛
64
242000
2000
使壞比去防堵壞事發生
04:22
against反對 all possible可能 bad things,
65
244000
2000
來得容易得多,
04:24
so the offensive進攻 uses使用 really have an asymmetric非對稱 advantage優點.
66
246000
4000
因此進攻的人的確具有一種不對等的優勢。
04:28
So these are the kind of thoughts思念 I was thinking思維 in 1999 and 2000,
67
250000
4000
所以這些就是我在1999年到2000年間的一些想法,
04:32
and my friends朋友 told me I was getting得到 really depressed鬱悶,
68
254000
2000
那時我的朋友們說我太過沮喪,
04:34
and they were really worried擔心 about me.
69
256000
2000
他們真的很擔心我。
04:36
And then I signed a book contract合同 to write more gloomy陰沉 thoughts思念 about this
70
258000
3000
而後我簽了一紙合約,著手撰寫更陰鬱想法的書籍,
04:39
and moved移動 into a hotel旅館 room房間 in New York紐約
71
261000
2000
然後搬到紐約的一家飯店,
04:41
with one room房間 full充分 of books圖書 on the Plague鼠疫,
72
263000
4000
住進了一間塞滿災難禍患書籍的房間,
04:45
and you know, nuclear bombs炸彈 exploding爆炸 in New York紐約
73
267000
3000
像是原子彈投在紐約,
04:48
where I would be within the circle, and so on.
74
270000
3000
我可能會受牽連這類的書。
04:51
And then I was there on September九月 11th,
75
273000
4000
那時我正好碰上911事件,
04:55
and I stood站在 in the streets街道 with everyone大家.
76
277000
1000
我和每個人一樣站在街頭,
04:56
And it was quite相當 an experience經驗 to be there.
77
278000
2000
那種經驗真是難以令人忘懷。
04:58
I got up the next下一個 morning早上 and walked out of the city,
78
280000
3000
隔天清晨我外出散步,
05:01
and all the sanitation衛生 trucks卡車 were parked on Houston休斯頓 Street
79
283000
3000
所有的清潔車都停在休士頓街,
05:04
and ready準備 to go down and start開始 taking服用 the rubble瓦礫 away.
80
286000
2000
準備開始清理善後。
05:06
And I walked down the middle中間, up to the train培養 station,
81
288000
2000
我走到中間去,上了火車月台,
05:08
and everything below下面 14th Street was closed關閉.
82
290000
3000
14大街以下全都關閉。
05:11
It was quite相當 a compelling引人注目 experience經驗, but not really, I suppose假設,
83
293000
4000
那是一個很令人深思的經驗,但是我認為,
05:15
a surprise to someone有人 who'd誰願意 had his room房間 full充分 of the books圖書.
84
297000
3000
對一個房間充滿了陰鬱書籍的人而言,我不會太驚訝。
05:18
It was always a surprise that it happened發生 then and there,
85
300000
4000
對人們來說,這種偶發事件是很令人驚訝沒錯,
05:22
but it wasn't a surprise that it happened發生 at all.
86
304000
4000
但這種事終究是會發生的,沒什麼好驚訝的。
05:26
And everyone大家 then started開始 writing寫作 about this.
87
308000
2000
然後每個人都開始寫些關於這件事的文章,
05:28
Thousands成千上萬 of people started開始 writing寫作 about this.
88
310000
1000
成千上萬的人們都在寫。
05:29
And I eventually終於 abandoned the book, and then Chris克里斯 called me
89
311000
2000
我後來放棄了那本書的撰寫,之後克里斯打電話給我,
05:31
to talk at the conference會議. I really don't talk about this anymore
90
313000
3000
要我在研討會上演講,但我已經不再講這類議題了,
05:34
because, you know, there's enough足夠 frustrating洩氣 and depressing壓抑 things going on.
91
316000
5000
因為你知道,世上讓人挫敗和氣餒的事已經夠多了。
05:39
But I agreed約定 to come and say a few少數 things about this.
92
321000
3000
但我同意來這跟大家說說這些,
05:42
And I would say that we can't give up the rule規則 of law
93
324000
3000
我想跟大家說我們不能放棄
05:45
to fight鬥爭 an asymmetric非對稱 threat威脅, which哪一個 is what we seem似乎 to be doing
94
327000
4000
我們目前正在做的事,就是去對抗這種不對稱的威脅,
05:49
because of the present當下, the people that are in power功率,
95
331000
5000
因為現狀很危急,也因為我們有能力去做,
05:54
because that's to give up the thing that makes品牌 civilization文明.
96
336000
5000
更因為我們不做就表示我們要放棄現代文明。
05:59
And we can't fight鬥爭 the threat威脅 in the kind of stupid way we're doing,
97
341000
3000
而我們不能用我們現在的笨方法去對抗這種威脅,
06:02
because a million-dollar百萬美元 act法案
98
344000
2000
因為你以數百萬美元去對抗,
06:04
causes原因 a billion十億 dollars美元 of damage損傷, causes原因 a trillion dollar美元 response響應
99
346000
3000
就會造成數十億美元的傷害,還需要花上數兆美元去修補,
06:07
which哪一個 is largely大部分 ineffective不靈 and arguably按理說, probably大概 almost幾乎 certainly當然,
100
349000
3000
這是很沒有效率的事,而且很有可能
06:10
has made製作 the problem問題 worse更差.
101
352000
2000
只會讓問題更糟。
06:12
So we can't fight鬥爭 the thing with a million-to-one百萬到一 cost成本,
102
354000
5000
所以我們不能以百萬的成本來對抗這種事,
06:17
one-to-a-million一到一百萬 cost-benefit成本效益 ratio.
103
359000
6000
因為獲利率可能只有百萬分之一。
06:24
So after giving up on the book -- and I had the great honor榮譽
104
366000
5000
所以在放棄寫書之後,我很榮幸的
06:29
to be able能夠 to join加入 Kleiner克萊納 Perkins帕金斯 about a year ago,
105
371000
4000
在一年前有機會加入美國KPCB風險投資公司,
06:33
and to work through通過 venture冒險 capital首都 on the innovative創新 side,
106
375000
7000
從創新的一面去從事風險投資,
06:40
and to try to find some innovations創新 that could address地址 what I saw as
107
382000
4000
並且試著去找出一些創新方法來解決我所觀察到的
06:44
some of these big problems問題.
108
386000
2000
一些重大問題。
06:46
Things where, you know, a factor因子 of 10 difference區別
109
388000
3000
一件事如果有十個不同的潛在因素,
06:49
can make a factor因子 of 1,000 difference區別 in the outcome結果.
110
391000
4000
就可能衍生出一千種不同的結果。
06:53
I've been amazed吃驚 in the last year at the incredible難以置信 quality質量
111
395000
3000
去年我看到一些創新方案,
06:56
and excitement激動 of the innovations創新 that have come across橫過 my desk.
112
398000
5000
這些方案的品質讓我感到驚嘆、興奮不已,
07:01
It's overwhelming壓倒 at times. I'm very thankful感謝 for Google谷歌 and Wikipedia維基百科
113
403000
3000
有時也會佩服得五體投地。我很感謝Google和維基百科,
07:04
so I can understand理解 at least最小 a little of what people are talking about
114
406000
4000
所以我至少能知道這些來來往往的人們,
07:08
who come through通過 the doors.
115
410000
2000
都在談論些什麼。
07:10
But I wanted to share分享 with you three areas
116
412000
3000
但我想跟各位分享三個領域,
07:13
that I'm particularly尤其 excited興奮 about and that relate涉及 to the problems問題
117
415000
3000
這些是我特別感興趣的領域,而且也跟我前面說的重大問題有關,
07:16
that I was talking about in the Wired有線 article文章.
118
418000
5000
也就是我在Wired雜誌裡談到的問題。
07:21
The first is this whole整個 area of education教育,
119
423000
2000
首先是關於教育,
07:23
and it really relates涉及 to what Nicholas尼古拉斯 was talking about with a $100 computer電腦.
120
425000
4000
而這真的和尼可拉斯提出的百元電腦概念有關,
07:27
And that is to say that there's a lot of legs left in Moore's摩爾定律 Law.
121
429000
4000
也就是說根據摩爾定律還有很大的成長空間。
07:31
The most advanced高級 transistors晶體管 today今天 are at 65 nanometers納米,
122
433000
4000
現今最先進的電晶體是65奈米,
07:35
and we've我們已經 seen看到, and I've had the pleasure樂趣 to invest投資
123
437000
3000
我們已經看到有公司能做得更小,而我個人也很榮幸參與投資,
07:38
in, companies公司 that give me great confidence置信度 that we'll extend延伸 Moore's摩爾定律 Law
124
440000
6000
我有信心這些公司將會把摩爾定律擴充
07:44
all the way down to roughly大致 the 10 nanometer納米 scale規模.
125
446000
3000
到約莫十奈米那麼小。
07:47
Another另一個 factor因子 of, say, six in dimensional尺寸的 reduction減少,
126
449000
6000
舉例來說,如果我們縮減六個維度,
07:53
which哪一個 should give us about another另一個 factor因子 of 100 in raw生的 improvement起色
127
455000
5000
就能為晶片帶來百倍的改善,
07:58
in what the chips芯片 can do. And so, to put that in practical實際的 terms條款,
128
460000
5000
因此,應用在實際上,
08:03
if something costs成本 about 1,000 dollars美元 today今天,
129
465000
4000
就是如果現在有某樣東西價值一千美元,
08:07
say, the best最好 personal個人 computer電腦 you can buy購買, that might威力 be its cost成本,
130
469000
5000
例如最頂級的個人電腦,我認為將來
08:12
I think we can have that in 2020 for 10 dollars美元. Okay?
131
474000
6000
或許在2020年就能以十美元買到。可以嗎?
08:18
Now, just imagine想像 what that $100 computer電腦 will be in 2020
132
480000
5000
現在,想像一下現在做為教育工具的百元電腦,
08:23
as a tool工具 for education教育.
133
485000
2000
在2020年會是什麼樣子。
08:25
I think the challenge挑戰 for us is --
134
487000
2000
我認為我們的挑戰是--
08:27
I'm very certain某些 that that will happen發生, the challenge挑戰 is,
135
489000
2000
我認為非常有可能會發生,我們的挑戰就是,
08:29
will we develop發展 the kind of educational教育性 tools工具 and things with the net
136
491000
5000
我們能否發展出某項配有網路的教育工具,
08:34
to let us take advantage優點 of that device設備?
137
496000
3000
讓我們能夠善加利用?
08:37
I'd argue爭論 today今天 that we have incredibly令人難以置信 powerful強大 computers電腦,
138
499000
4000
我可以說我們今天擁有了不起的電腦設備,
08:41
but we don't have very good software軟件 for them.
139
503000
2000
但我們沒有足夠的軟體。
08:43
And it's only in retrospect回想起來, after the better software軟件 comes along沿,
140
505000
3000
但這只是過去的情形,現在我們已經有了較好的軟體,
08:46
and you take it and you run it on a ten-year-old十歲 machine, you say,
141
508000
2000
你把它放在一台十年的機器上跑,你會問說,
08:48
God, the machine was that fast快速?
142
510000
2000
天啊,這機器能跑這麼快?
08:50
I remember記得 when they took the Apple蘋果 Mac蘋果電腦 interface接口
143
512000
2000
我還記得當他們把蘋果電腦麥金塔界面,
08:52
and they put it back on the Apple蘋果 IIII.
144
514000
3000
放回到蘋果二代時,
08:55
The Apple蘋果 IIII was perfectly完美 capable of running賽跑 that kind of interface接口,
145
517000
3000
蘋果二代在跑這種界面時表現完美,
08:58
we just didn't know how to do it at the time.
146
520000
3000
我們那時只是不知道該如何使用它而已。
09:01
So given特定 that we know and should believe --
147
523000
2000
所以既然我們已經知道,而且我們應該相信--
09:03
because Moore's摩爾定律 Law's法律的 been, like, a constant不變,
148
525000
3000
因為摩爾定律已是一個恆律,
09:06
I mean, it's just been very predictable可預測 progress進展
149
528000
3000
我是指,摩爾定律在過去四十多年來
09:09
over the last 40 years年份 or whatever隨你.
150
531000
3000
一直具有很高的預測能力,
09:12
We can know what the computers電腦 are going to be like in 2020.
151
534000
4000
所以我們可以得知在2020年的電腦會是什麼樣子。
09:16
It's great that we have initiatives倡議 to say,
152
538000
2000
我很高興我們能起風潮之先,呼籲大家,
09:18
let's go create創建 the education教育 and educate教育 people in the world世界,
153
540000
3000
讓我們教育全世界的人們,
09:21
because that's a great force for peace和平.
154
543000
2000
因為這是一股偉大的和平力量。
09:23
And we can give everyone大家 in the world世界 a $100 computer電腦
155
545000
3000
而且我們可以給世上每個人一台百元電腦,
09:26
or a $10 computer電腦 in the next下一個 15 years年份.
156
548000
5000
或是在十五年後給他們一人一台十元電腦。
09:31
The second第二 area that I'm focusing調焦 on is the environmental環境的 problem問題,
157
553000
5000
第二個領域是著重在環保議題,
09:36
because that's clearly明確地 going to put a lot of pressure壓力 on this world世界.
158
558000
4000
因為很明顯地這將會對世界造成壓力,
09:40
We'll hear a lot more about that from Al Gore血塊 very shortly不久.
159
562000
4000
很快地我們會從高爾的演講中得知更多細節。
09:44
The thing that we see as the kind of Moore's摩爾定律 Law trend趨勢
160
566000
3000
就像摩爾定律的趨勢,能驅動我們提昇能力一樣,
09:47
that's driving主動 improvement起色 in our ability能力 to address地址
161
569000
3000
我們現在會去注意到環保問題,
09:50
the environmental環境的 problem問題 is new materials物料.
162
572000
4000
乃是因為有許多新的物質出現。
09:54
We have a challenge挑戰, because the urban城市的 population人口 is growing生長
163
576000
4000
我們的挑戰是,由於都市人口激增,
09:58
in this century世紀 from two billion十億 to six billion十億
164
580000
3000
本世紀的都市人口已在很短的時間內,
10:01
in a very short amount of time. People are moving移動 to the cities城市.
165
583000
2000
從20億成長到60億。人們都遷入都市,
10:03
They all need clean清潔 water, they need energy能源, they need transportation運輸,
166
585000
3000
他們需要乾淨的水源、能源、交通工具,
10:06
and we want them to develop發展 in a green綠色 way.
167
588000
4000
而我們希望他們能用環保的方式解決這些需求。
10:10
We're reasonably合理 efficient高效 in the industrial產業 sectors行業.
168
592000
2000
我們在工業方面是很有效率的,
10:12
We've我們已經 made製作 improvements改進 in energy能源 and resource資源 efficiency效率,
169
594000
3000
我們在能源和資源的有效利用上,已做了大幅改善,
10:15
but the consumer消費者 sector扇形, especially特別 in America美國, is very inefficient低效.
170
597000
4000
但是在消費方面,尤其是在美國,還是很沒有效率的。
10:19
But these new materials物料 bring帶來 such這樣 incredible難以置信 innovations創新
171
601000
4000
但是這些新的物質帶來了非常大的創新概念,
10:23
that there's a strong強大 basis基礎 for hope希望 that these things
172
605000
4000
大家強烈希望這些東西
10:27
will be so profitable有利可圖 that they can be brought to the market市場.
173
609000
2000
能為市場帶來巨大的利益。
10:29
And I want to give you a specific具體 example of a new material材料
174
611000
3000
我想舉一個十五年前發現的
10:32
that was discovered發現 15 years年份 ago.
175
614000
3000
新的物質做為例子,
10:35
If we take carbon nanotubes納米管, you know, Iijima飯島 discovered發現 them in 1991,
176
617000
5000
如果我們採用奈米碳管,這是飯島博士在1991年發現的,
10:40
they just have incredible難以置信 properties性能.
177
622000
2000
他們有很棒的特質。
10:42
And these are the kinds of things we're going to discover發現
178
624000
1000
而這類的事物就是我們將來要去發掘的,
10:43
as we start開始 to engineer工程師 at the nano納米 scale規模.
179
625000
3000
就像當時我們開始設計奈米尺度一樣。
10:46
Their strength強度: they're almost幾乎 the strongest最強 material材料,
180
628000
3000
它們的優點在於,它們幾乎是最強的材料,
10:49
tensile拉伸 strength強度 material材料 known已知.
181
631000
2000
是目前已知抗張強度最強的材料。
10:52
They're very, very stiff僵硬. They stretch伸展 very, very little.
182
634000
5000
他們非常非常堅硬,很難延伸。
10:57
In two dimensions尺寸, if you make, like, a fabric out of them,
183
639000
3000
在二維空間裡,如果你用它來做像是纖維的東西,
11:00
they're 30 times stronger than Kevlar芳綸.
184
642000
3000
它們的強度是凱拉維纖維(防彈衣)的三十倍。
11:03
And if you make a three-dimensional三維 structure結構體, like a buckyball布基球,
185
645000
3000
而如果你用它來做像巴克球(硬度較鑽石還硬)這種三維構造,
11:06
they have all sorts排序 of incredible難以置信 properties性能.
186
648000
2000
它們有各種很棒的特質。
11:08
If you shoot射擊 a particle粒子 at them and knock a hole in them,
187
650000
3000
如果你用粒子在它中間射穿一個洞,
11:11
they repair修理 themselves他們自己; they go zip壓縮 and they repair修理 the hole
188
653000
3000
它們能自我修護;他們會把洞修補起來,
11:14
in femtoseconds飛秒, which哪一個 is not -- is really quick.
189
656000
3000
即便不是飛秒--也是夠快了。
11:17
(Laughter笑聲)
190
659000
3000
(笑聲)
11:20
If you shine閃耀 a light on them, they produce生產 electricity電力.
191
662000
4000
如果你用光照射,它們就能產生電。
11:24
In fact事實, if you flash them with a camera相機 they catch抓住 on fire.
192
666000
3000
事實上,如果你用相機的閃光燈照射,他們就會著火。
11:27
If you put electricity電力 on them, they emit發射 light.
193
669000
4000
如果你讓它們通電,他們就會產生光照。
11:31
If you run current當前 through通過 them, you can run 1,000 times more current當前
194
673000
3000
如果你引水穿過它們,和引水穿過金屬相比,
11:34
through通過 one of these than through通過 a piece of metal金屬.
195
676000
4000
你將得到快一千倍的流速。
11:38
You can make both p-P- and n-typen型 semiconductors半導體,
196
680000
3000
你同時可以製造P型和N型的半導體,
11:41
which哪一個 means手段 you can make transistors晶體管 out of them.
197
683000
2000
也就是說你可以用這種材質製作電晶體。
11:43
They conduct進行 heat along沿 their length長度 but not across橫過 --
198
685000
3000
它們可以直向傳導熱能,而不是橫向傳導--
11:46
well, there is no width寬度, but not in the other direction方向
199
688000
2000
雖然這種東西沒有寬度,但就算你把它們堆疊起來,
11:48
if you stack them up; that's a property屬性 of carbon fiber纖維 also.
200
690000
6000
也不會是從另一個方向傳導。它們也具有碳纖維的特質。
11:54
If you put particles粒子 in them, and they go shooting射擊 out the tip小費 --
201
696000
3000
如果你放粒子進去,它們可以射穿尖端--
11:57
they're like miniature微型 linear線性 accelerators加速器 or electron電子 guns槍砲.
202
699000
3000
它們就像是線性加速器或是微型電子槍。
12:00
The inside of the nanotubes納米管 is so small --
203
702000
3000
奈米管內觀非常的小--
12:03
the smallest最少 ones那些 are 0.7 nanometers納米 --
204
705000
2000
最小的只有0.7奈米--
12:05
that it's basically基本上 a quantum量子 world世界.
205
707000
2000
這基本上是一個量子的世界。
12:07
It's a strange奇怪 place地點 inside a nanotube納米管.
206
709000
3000
在奈米管裡面是一個奇妙的世界。
12:10
And so we begin開始 to see, and we've我們已經 seen看到 business商業 plans計劃 already已經,
207
712000
3000
所以我們開始去看,而且我們也已經看過營運計劃,
12:13
where the kind of things Lisa麗莎 Randall's蘭德爾 talking about are in there.
208
715000
3000
在裡頭有著麗莎.蘭德爾所說的東西。
12:16
I had one business商業 plan計劃 where I was trying to learn學習 more about
209
718000
2000
我正試著研究著手頭上的一項營運計劃,
12:18
Witten's威滕的 cosmic宇宙的 dimension尺寸 strings字符串 to try to understand理解
210
720000
3000
這是一項由惠頓所提出的宇宙弦論,
12:21
what the phenomenon現象 was going on in this proposed建議 nanomaterial納米材料.
211
723000
3000
在這推論的奈米物質會發生什麼現象。
12:24
So inside of a nanotube納米管, we're really at the limit限制 here.
212
726000
6000
所以如果你以奈米管內部來看,我們的確受限於此。
12:30
So what we see is with these and other new materials物料
213
732000
4000
所以我們在這裡要找的就是其它新的物質,
12:34
that we can do things with different不同 properties性能 -- lighter打火機, stronger --
214
736000
4000
讓我們可以以不同的特質來因應事情--或許更輕便、或更強靭--
12:38
and apply應用 these new materials物料 to the environmental環境的 problems問題.
215
740000
6000
並且運用這些新的物質去解決環境問題。
12:44
New materials物料 that can make water,
216
746000
1000
新的物質可以創造水源,
12:45
new materials物料 that can make fuel汽油 cells細胞 work better,
217
747000
2000
新的物筫可以使石化分子運作得更好,
12:47
new materials物料 that catalyze催化 chemical化學 reactions反應,
218
749000
4000
新的物質可以催化化學反應,
12:51
that cut pollution污染 and so on.
219
753000
3000
來阻絕污染等等。
12:54
Ethanol乙醇 -- new ways方法 of making製造 ethanol乙醇.
220
756000
3000
乙醇--用新的方式來產生乙醇。
12:57
New ways方法 of making製造 electric電動 transportation運輸.
221
759000
3000
用新的方式來產生電氣運輸工具。
13:00
The whole整個 green綠色 dream夢想 -- because it can be profitable有利可圖.
222
762000
4000
這整個綠化夢想--由於這本身可以獲利,
13:04
And we've我們已經 dedicated專用 -- we've我們已經 just raised上調 a new fund基金,
223
766000
2000
所以我們已經致力其中--我們已經籌募新的資金,
13:06
we dedicated專用 100 million百萬 dollars美元 to these kinds of investments投資.
224
768000
3000
並已挹注一億美元於這些投資上。
13:09
We believe that Genentech基因泰克, the Compaq康柏, the Lotus蓮花, the Sun太陽,
225
771000
4000
我們相信綠化產業裡的基因科技公司、康柏電腦、
13:13
the Netscape網景, the Amazon亞馬遜, the Google谷歌 in these fields領域
226
775000
4000
蓮花軟體、昇陽電腦、網景、亞馬遜、Google等,
13:17
are yet然而 to be found發現, because this materials物料 revolution革命
227
779000
3000
還沒有出現,但這次的物質革命
13:20
will drive駕駛 these things forward前鋒.
228
782000
3000
將會驅動這些公司出現。
13:24
The third第三 area that we're working加工 on,
229
786000
2000
我們所要探討的第三個領或,
13:26
and we just announced公佈 last week -- we were all in New York紐約.
230
788000
4000
也就是我們上禮拜在紐約宣布的消息。
13:30
We raised上調 200 million百萬 dollars美元 in a specialty專業 fund基金
231
792000
6000
我們籌募到二億美元的專門基金
13:36
to work on a pandemic流感大流行 in biodefense生物防禦.
232
798000
4000
來研究傳染疾病的抗體。
13:40
And to give you an idea理念 of the last fund基金 that Kleiner克萊納 raised上調
233
802000
3000
在此給大家一個概念,上次KPCB公司募集到的金額
13:43
was a $400 million百萬 fund基金, so this for us is a very substantial大量的 fund基金.
234
805000
5000
是四億美元的基金,所以這對我們而言是一項龐大的資金。
13:48
And what we did, over the last few少數 months個月 -- well, a few少數 months個月 ago,
235
810000
4000
而我們過去幾個月所做的--嗯,幾個月前,
13:52
Ray射線 Kurzweil庫茲威爾 and I wrote an op-ed專欄 in the New York紐約 Times
236
814000
3000
雷.克茲維爾和我在紐約時報共同發表了一篇特稿,
13:55
about how publishing出版 the 1918 genome基因組 was very dangerous危險.
237
817000
3000
內容是關於發表1918年流感基因的危險性。
13:58
And John約翰 Doerr杜爾 and Brook and others其他 got concerned關心, [unclear不明],
238
820000
4000
而約翰.多爾和布魯克和其他人有一些考量,
14:02
and we started開始 looking around at what the world世界 was doing
239
824000
4000
所以我們開始去查看這世界了做什麼
14:06
about being存在 prepared準備 for a pandemic流感大流行. And we saw a lot of gaps空白.
240
828000
5000
來預防大規模傳染,而我們看到了很多缺口。
14:11
And so we asked ourselves我們自己, you know, can we find innovative創新 things
241
833000
4000
所以我們自問,我們能否找到創新的方法
14:15
that will go fill these gaps空白? And Brooks布魯克斯 told me in a break打破 here,
242
837000
4000
來填補這些缺口?布魯克有一次到這裡休假時跟我說,
14:19
he said he's found發現 so much stuff東東 he can't sleep睡覺,
243
841000
2000
他說有很多事讓他擔心得睡不成眠,
14:21
because there's so many許多 great technologies技術 out there,
244
843000
3000
因為外面有好多偉大的科技,
14:24
we're essentially實質上 buried隱藏. And we need them, you know.
245
846000
3000
都被我們給埋没了,但這些正是我們需要的。
14:27
We have one antiviral抗病毒 that people are talking about stockpiling堆存
246
849000
3000
目前有一個大概還具有效力的抗病毒物質,
14:30
that still works作品, roughly大致. That's Tamiflu達菲.
247
852000
3000
就是目前正在儲備存量的克流感。
14:33
But Tamiflu達菲 -- the virus病毒 is resistant. It is resistant to Tamiflu達菲.
248
855000
5000
但是病毒對克流感有抗藥性。
14:38
We've我們已經 discovered發現 with AIDS艾滋病 we need cocktails雞尾酒 to work well
249
860000
4000
我們發現要對抗愛滋病,我們需要雞尾酒療法來好好處理;
14:42
so that the viral病毒 resistance抵抗性 -- we need several一些 anti-virals抗病毒藥物.
250
864000
3000
所以對抗這些抗藥性病毒,我們就需要好幾種抗病毒物質。
14:45
We need better surveillance監控.
251
867000
2000
我們需要更好的檢查機制;
14:47
We need networks網絡 that can find out what's going on.
252
869000
3000
我們需要能發現事情徵兆的網絡;
14:50
We need rapid快速 diagnostics診斷 so that we can tell if somebody has
253
872000
4000
我們需要快速診斷,我們才能得知某人得的是
14:54
a strain應變 of flu流感 which哪一個 we have only identified確定 very recently最近.
254
876000
4000
我們最近確認的哪一種流感。
14:58
We've我們已經 got to be able能夠 to make the rapid快速 diagnostics診斷 quickly很快.
255
880000
2000
我們必須要能夠快速立即地診斷;
15:00
We need new anti-virals抗病毒藥物 and cocktails雞尾酒. We need new kinds of vaccines疫苗.
256
882000
3000
我們需要新的抗病毒物質和雞尾酒療法;我們需要新品種的疫苗、
15:03
Vaccines疫苗 that are broad廣闊 spectrum光譜.
257
885000
2000
可以涵蓋多個層面的疫苗、
15:05
Vaccines疫苗 that we can manufacture製造 quickly很快.
258
887000
4000
能夠快速製造的疫苗。
15:09
Cocktails雞尾酒, more polyvalent多價 vaccines疫苗.
259
891000
2000
雞尾酒療法,含更多價染色體的疫苗。
15:11
You normally一般 get a trivalent三價 vaccine疫苗 against反對 three possible可能 strains.
260
893000
3000
你大概已有三價疫苗來對抗三種可能的品種。
15:14
We need -- we don't know where this thing is going.
261
896000
3000
我們尚不知事情會如何進展,
15:17
We believe that if we could fill these 10 gaps空白,
262
899000
3000
但我們相信如果我們能填補這十個缺口,
15:20
we have a chance機會 to help really reduce減少 the risk風險 of a pandemic流感大流行.
263
902000
6000
我們就有機會真正地去降低流行病的危機。
15:26
And the difference區別 between之間 a normal正常 flu流感 season季節 and a pandemic流感大流行
264
908000
4000
而一般季節流感與流行病的差別在於,
15:30
is about a factor因子 of 1,000 in deaths死亡
265
912000
3000
死亡人數的差距是以千倍計算,
15:33
and certainly當然 enormous巨大 economic經濟 impact碰撞.
266
915000
3000
並且在經濟上帶來巨大衝擊。
15:36
So we're very excited興奮 because we think we can fund基金 10,
267
918000
3000
我們非常興奮,因為我們認為我們能籌措到十項基金,
15:39
or speed速度 up 10 projects項目 and see them come to market市場
268
921000
4000
或是加速十個專案的推行,並在數年之後
15:43
in the next下一個 couple一對 years年份 that will address地址 this.
269
925000
3000
看到他們真正上市。
15:46
So if we can address地址, use technology技術, help address地址 education教育,
270
928000
3000
所以如果我們能利用科技來幫助解決教育問題,
15:49
help address地址 the environment環境, help address地址 the pandemic流感大流行,
271
931000
3000
幫助解決環境問題,幫助解決大規模傳染問題,
15:52
does that solve解決 the larger problem問題 that I was talking about
272
934000
4000
這不就能解決當年我在Wired雜誌上
15:56
in the Wired有線 article文章? And I'm afraid害怕 the answer回答 is really no,
273
938000
5000
所提到那些大問題了嗎?恐怕不會,
16:01
because you can't solve解決 a problem問題 with the management管理 of technology技術
274
943000
4000
因為你不能光只靠科技
16:05
with more technology技術.
275
947000
3000
來解決一個問題。
16:08
If we let an unlimited無限 amount of power功率 loose疏鬆, then we will --
276
950000
5000
如果我們輕忽了某一個強大的力量,那將會讓
16:13
a very small number of people will be able能夠 to abuse濫用 it.
277
955000
2000
一小群人濫用這個力量,
16:15
We can't fight鬥爭 at a million-to-one百萬到一 disadvantage壞處.
278
957000
4000
我們不能以要耗費百萬倍精力的劣勢去對抗。
16:19
So what we need to do is, we need better policy政策.
279
961000
3000
所以我們應該要做的是,我們需要更好的政策。
16:22
And for example, some things we could do
280
964000
3000
舉例來說,我們能做的一些事,
16:25
that would be policy政策 solutions解決方案 which哪一個 are not really in the political政治 air空氣 right now
281
967000
4000
就是擬定解決方案的政策,這並不一定是目前政府的政策,
16:29
but perhaps也許 with the change更改 of administration行政 would be -- use markets市場.
282
971000
4000
但我們可以改變管理的機制,就是利用市場。
16:33
Markets市場 are a very strong強大 force.
283
975000
2000
市場本身具有強大的力量,
16:35
For example, rather than trying to regulate調節 away problems問題,
284
977000
3000
例如,與其試著去規範問題,
16:38
which哪一個 probably大概 won't慣於 work, if we could price價錢
285
980000
2000
而且通常成效不彰,不如讓我們透過價格機制
16:40
into the cost成本 of doing business商業, the cost成本 of catastrophe災難,
286
982000
5000
來讓使用者付費,像是災難的成本,
16:45
so that people who are doing things that had a higher更高 cost成本 of catastrophe災難
287
987000
3000
那麼當人們在從事具有高災難成本的事時,
16:48
would have to take insurance保險 against反對 that risk風險.
288
990000
3000
他們就要購買保險以降低風險。
16:51
So if you wanted to put a drug藥物 on the market市場 you could put it on.
289
993000
2000
所以如果你想要讓一種藥在市面流通,你可以去試試看,
16:53
But it wouldn't不會 have to be approved批准 by regulators監管機構;
290
995000
2000
雖然這種藥不一定要經由政府核准通過,
16:55
you'd have to convince說服 an actuary精算師 that it would be safe安全.
291
997000
4000
但你得先說服精算師你的藥品是安全的。
16:59
And if you apply應用 the notion概念 of insurance保險 more broadly寬廣地,
292
1001000
3000
而如果你將保險的概念應用得更廣泛些,
17:02
you can use a more powerful強大 force, a market市場 force,
293
1004000
3000
你就可以運用更有力的市場機制力量,
17:05
to provide提供 feedback反饋.
294
1007000
2000
來提供你回饋資訊。
17:07
How could you keep the law?
295
1009000
1000
你要如何維持法律運作?
17:08
I think the law would be a really good thing to keep.
296
1010000
2000
我認為法律是我們值得我們維持的一個好東西。
17:10
Well, you have to hold保持 people accountable問責.
297
1012000
2000
你必須要讓人民負責,
17:12
The law requires要求 accountability問責.
298
1014000
2000
法律必須要有誠信。
17:14
Today今天 scientists科學家們, technologists技術專家, businessmen商人, engineers工程師
299
1016000
3000
今天科學家、科學技術人員、商人、工程師,
17:17
don't have any personal個人 responsibility責任
300
1019000
2000
對他們所做所為可能帶來的後果,
17:19
for the consequences後果 of their actions行動.
301
1021000
2000
完全沒有任何個人的責任感。
17:21
So if you tie領帶 that -- you have to tie領帶 that back with the law.
302
1023000
4000
所以你必須用法律來加以約束。
17:25
And finally最後, I think we have to do something that's not really --
303
1027000
4000
最後,我想我們必須去做一些事--
17:29
it's almost幾乎 unacceptable不可接受 to say this -- which哪一個,
304
1031000
1000
這種說法幾乎是不太能被接受的--
17:30
we have to begin開始 to design設計 the future未來.
305
1032000
3000
就是我們必須要開始著手規劃未來。
17:33
We can't pick the future未來, but we can steer駕駛 the future未來.
306
1035000
4000
我們不能選擇未來,但我們可以駕馭未來。
17:37
Our investment投資 in trying to prevent避免 pandemic流感大流行 flu流感
307
1039000
2000
我們為防範傳染病所做的投資,
17:39
is affecting影響 the distribution分配 of possible可能 outcomes結果.
308
1041000
4000
有可能影響一些未來的發展。
17:43
We may可能 not be able能夠 to stop it, but the likelihood可能性
309
1045000
2000
我們或許無法去阻擋,
17:45
that it will get past過去 us is lower降低 if we focus焦點 on that problem問題.
310
1047000
4000
但如果我們專注在問題上的話,那它就比較不能對我們造成影響。
17:49
So we can design設計 the future未來 if we choose選擇 what kind of things
311
1051000
4000
因此,如果我們可以選擇我們希望發生的和不希望發生的事,
17:53
we want to have happen發生 and not have happen發生,
312
1055000
3000
我們就可以規劃未來,
17:56
and steer駕駛 us to a lower-risk低風險 place地點.
313
1058000
3000
並把自己的風險降低。
17:59
Vice President主席 Gore血塊 will talk about how we could steer駕駛 the climate氣候 trajectory彈道
314
1061000
6000
副總統高爾將會與我們談談如何去掌控氣候變遷,
18:05
into a lower降低 probability可能性 of catastrophic災難性的 risk風險.
315
1067000
3000
讓它釀成災難的風險可能性降低。
18:08
But above以上 all, what we have to do is we have to help the good guys,
316
1070000
3000
但最終,我們要做的就是去幫助好人,
18:11
the people on the defensive防禦性 side,
317
1073000
2000
幫助這些站在防禦陣線的人,
18:13
have an advantage優點 over the people who want to abuse濫用 things.
318
1075000
4000
讓他們能防堵那些想使壞的人們。
18:17
And what we have to do to do that
319
1079000
2000
為了達到這個目的,我們要做的,
18:19
is we have to limit限制 access訪問 to certain某些 information信息.
320
1081000
3000
就是要限制某些特定資訊的存取。
18:22
And growing生長 up as we have, and holding保持 very high
321
1084000
3000
而對於像我們這樣年紀的人,我們對言論自由
18:25
the value of free自由 speech言語, this is a hard thing for us to accept接受 --
322
1087000
4000
抱持很高的價值,這是一件難以接受的事--
18:29
for all of us to accept接受.
323
1091000
1000
對我們所有人來說都是。
18:30
It's especially特別 hard for the scientists科學家們 to accept接受 who still remember記得,
324
1092000
5000
對科學家而言特別是難以接受,
18:35
you know, Galileo伽利略 essentially實質上 locked鎖定 up,
325
1097000
2000
因為他們還記得伽俐略曾遭囚禁,
18:37
and who are still fighting戰鬥 this battle戰鬥 against反對 the church教會.
326
1099000
4000
他們之中還有些人仍在與教廷抗戰。
18:41
But that's the price價錢 of having a civilization文明.
327
1103000
5000
不過這就是文明的代價,
18:46
The price價錢 of retaining固定 the rule規則 of law
328
1108000
2000
這就是維繫法治社會的代價,
18:48
is to limit限制 the access訪問 to the great and kind of unbridled恣意 power功率.
329
1110000
5000
我們不得不去限制人們,不得探取那些偉大且無法拘束的力量。
18:53
Thank you.
330
1115000
1000
謝謝。
18:54
(Applause掌聲)
331
1116000
2000
(鼓掌)
Translated by Deborah Chen
Reviewed by Marie Wu

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Joy - Technologist and futurist
The co-founder of Sun Microsystems, Bill Joy has, in recent years, turned his attention to the biggest questions facing humanity: Where are we going? What could go wrong? What's the next great thing?

Why you should listen

In 2003, Bill Joy left Sun Microsystems, the computer company he cofounded, with no definite plans. He'd spent the late 1970s and early 1980s working on Berkeley UNIX (he wrote the vi editor), and the next decades building beautiful high-performance workstations at Sun. Always, he'd been a kind of polite engineer-gadfly -- refusing to settle for subpar code or muddled thinking.

In 2000, with a landmark cover story in Wired called "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," Joy began to share his larger concerns with the world. A careful observer of the nanotech industry that was growing up around his own industry, Joy saw a way forward that, frankly, frightened him. He saw a very plausible future in which our own creations supplanted us -- if not out and out killed us (e.g., the gray goo problem). His proposed solution: Proceed with caution.

Joy's now a partner at KPMG, where he reviews business plans in education, environmental improvement and pandemic defense.

More profile about the speaker
Bill Joy | Speaker | TED.com