ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Rothkopf - Foreign policy strategist
With books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape.

Why you should listen

David Rothkopf draws on decades of foreign policy experience to clarify the events shaking today’s world -- and develops strategies for organizations to weather them and those looming ahead. Rothkopf is CEO of The Rothkopf Group, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former CEO and Editor of the FP Group (which publishes Foreign Policy Magazine and Foreign Policy.com).

Rothkopf's books (including most recently National Insecurity, which focuses on the treacherous post-9/11 national security climate) argue that the nature of power and those who wield it are fundamentally transforming. He is the author of the TED Book, The Great Questions of Tomorrow.

More profile about the speaker
David Rothkopf | Speaker | TED.com
TED2015

David Rothkopf: How fear drives American politics

Filmed:
1,291,544 views

Does it seem like Washington has no new ideas? Instead of looking to build the future, it sometimes feels like the US political establishment happily retreats into fear and willful ignorance. Journalist David Rothkopf lays out a few of the major issues that US leadership is failing to address -- from cybercrime to world-shaking new tech to the reality of modern total war -- and calls for a new vision that sets fear aside.
- Foreign policy strategist
With books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
What I'd like to do
is talk to you a little bit about fear
0
879
3764
00:16
and the cost of fear
1
4667
1689
00:18
and the age of fear
from which we are now emerging.
2
6380
3274
00:22
I would like you to feel comfortable
with my doing that
3
10072
3975
00:26
by letting you know that I know something
about fear and anxiety.
4
14071
5293
00:31
I'm a Jewish guy from New Jersey.
5
19388
2187
00:33
(Laughter)
6
21599
1484
00:35
I could worry before I could walk.
7
23107
2868
00:37
(Laughter)
8
25999
1506
00:39
Please, applaud that.
9
27529
2442
00:41
(Applause)
10
29995
2388
00:44
Thank you.
11
32407
1319
00:46
But I also grew up in a time
where there was something to fear.
12
34954
4685
00:52
We were brought out in the hall
when I was a little kid
13
40915
3261
00:56
and taught how to put
our coats over our heads
14
44200
3450
00:59
to protect us from global
thermonuclear war.
15
47674
3753
01:03
Now even my seven-year-old brain
knew that wasn't going to work.
16
51838
4228
01:09
But I also knew
17
57179
1158
01:10
that global thermonuclear war
was something to be concerned with.
18
58361
4724
01:15
And yet, despite the fact
that we lived for 50 years
19
63109
4161
01:19
with the threat of such a war,
20
67294
2363
01:21
the response of our government
and of our society
21
69681
3981
01:25
was to do wonderful things.
22
73686
1880
01:28
We created the space program
in response to that.
23
76220
2998
01:31
We built our highway system
in response to that.
24
79242
3097
01:34
We created the Internet
in response to that.
25
82363
3547
01:37
So sometimes fear can produce
a constructive response.
26
85934
4193
01:42
But sometimes it can produce
an un-constructive response.
27
90847
3322
01:47
On September 11, 2001,
28
95066
2909
01:49
19 guys took over four airplanes
29
97999
4511
01:54
and flew them into a couple of buildings.
30
102534
2288
01:57
They exacted a horrible toll.
31
105667
2460
02:00
It is not for us to minimize
what that toll was.
32
108151
4000
02:04
But the response that we had
was clearly disproportionate --
33
112965
6983
02:11
disproportionate to the point
of verging on the unhinged.
34
119972
4878
02:16
We rearranged the national security
apparatus of the United States
35
124874
3902
02:20
and of many governments
36
128800
1840
02:22
to address a threat that,
at the time that those attacks took place,
37
130664
4718
02:27
was quite limited.
38
135406
1303
02:28
In fact, according to our
intelligence services,
39
136733
3431
02:32
on September 11, 2001,
40
140188
3368
02:35
there were 100 members of core Al-Qaeda.
41
143580
3229
02:39
There were just a few thousand terrorists.
42
147414
2490
02:42
They posed an existential threat
43
150357
3114
02:45
to no one.
44
153495
1169
02:47
But we rearranged our entire
national security apparatus
45
155561
4576
02:52
in the most sweeping way
since the end of the Second World War.
46
160161
4081
02:56
We launched two wars.
47
164577
1839
02:58
We spent trillions of dollars.
48
166440
2333
03:00
We suspended our values.
49
168797
2177
03:02
We violated international law.
50
170998
1851
03:04
We embraced torture.
51
172873
1232
03:06
We embraced the idea
52
174129
1673
03:07
that if these 19 guys could do this,
anybody could do it.
53
175826
3071
03:11
And therefore,
for the first time in history,
54
179385
2856
03:14
we were seeing everybody as a threat.
55
182265
2948
03:17
And what was the result of that?
56
185237
1852
03:19
Surveillance programs that listened in
on the emails and phone calls
57
187113
4008
03:23
of entire countries --
58
191145
2165
03:25
hundreds of millions of people --
59
193334
2406
03:27
setting aside whether
those countries were our allies,
60
195764
3023
03:30
setting aside what our interests were.
61
198811
2448
03:34
I would argue that 15 years later,
62
202735
3278
03:38
since today there are more terrorists,
63
206037
2393
03:40
more terrorist attacks,
more terrorist casualties --
64
208454
3542
03:44
this by the count
of the U.S. State Department --
65
212020
3340
03:47
since today the region
from which those attacks emanate
66
215384
3069
03:50
is more unstable
than at any time in its history,
67
218477
3689
03:54
since the Flood, perhaps,
68
222190
3680
03:57
we have not succeeded in our response.
69
225894
3763
04:02
Now you have to ask,
where did we go wrong?
70
230206
2007
04:04
What did we do?
What was the mistake that was made?
71
232237
2450
04:06
And you might say, well look,
Washington is a dysfunctional place.
72
234711
4129
04:10
There are political food fights.
73
238864
1694
04:12
We've turned our discourse
into a cage match.
74
240582
3563
04:16
And that's true.
75
244169
1282
04:18
But there are bigger problems,
believe it or not, than that dysfunction,
76
246039
3414
04:21
even though I would argue
77
249477
1868
04:23
that dysfunction that makes it impossible
to get anything done
78
251369
4651
04:28
in the richest and most powerful
country in the world
79
256044
3681
04:31
is far more dangerous than anything
that a group like ISIS could do,
80
259749
5649
04:37
because it stops us in our tracks
and it keeps us from progress.
81
265422
3624
04:42
But there are other problems.
82
270183
1472
04:44
And the other problems
83
272127
1164
04:45
came from the fact that in Washington
and in many capitals right now,
84
273315
3556
04:48
we're in a creativity crisis.
85
276895
1791
04:51
In Washington, in think tanks,
86
279108
2647
04:53
where people are supposed to be
thinking of new ideas,
87
281779
3118
04:56
you don't get bold new ideas,
88
284921
2066
04:59
because if you offer up a bold new idea,
89
287011
2867
05:01
not only are you attacked on Twitter,
90
289902
1852
05:03
but you will not get confirmed
in a government job.
91
291778
3351
05:07
Because we are reactive to the heightened
venom of the political debate,
92
295153
5229
05:12
you get governments that have
an us-versus-them mentality,
93
300406
3110
05:15
tiny groups of people making decisions.
94
303540
2397
05:17
When you sit in a room with a small group
of people making decisions,
95
305961
3282
05:21
what do you get?
96
309267
1159
05:22
You get groupthink.
97
310450
1640
05:24
Everybody has the same worldview,
98
312114
1589
05:25
and any view from outside of the group
is seen as a threat.
99
313727
3266
05:29
That's a danger.
100
317366
1230
05:31
You also have processes
that become reactive to news cycles.
101
319258
4261
05:35
And so the parts of the U.S. government
that do foresight, that look forward,
102
323543
4293
05:39
that do strategy --
103
327860
1155
05:41
the parts in other governments
that do this -- can't do it,
104
329039
2763
05:43
because they're reacting
to the news cycle.
105
331826
2158
05:46
And so we're not looking ahead.
106
334383
1904
05:48
On 9/11, we had a crisis
because we were looking the wrong way.
107
336311
3798
05:52
Today we have a crisis because,
because of 9/11,
108
340527
3427
05:55
we are still looking
in the wrong direction,
109
343978
2651
05:58
and we know because we see
transformational trends on the horizon
110
346653
5848
06:04
that are far more important
than what we saw on 9/11;
111
352525
4852
06:09
far more important than the threat
posed by these terrorists;
112
357401
3802
06:13
far more important even
than the instability that we've got
113
361227
3250
06:16
in some areas of the world
that are racked by instability today.
114
364501
4251
06:21
In fact, the things that we are seeing
in those parts of the world
115
369161
4660
06:25
may be symptoms.
116
373845
2614
06:28
They may be a reaction to bigger trends.
117
376883
3478
06:32
And if we are treating the symptom
and ignoring the bigger trend,
118
380385
4704
06:37
then we've got far bigger
problems to deal with.
119
385113
3064
06:41
And so what are those trends?
120
389415
1497
06:43
Well, to a group like you,
121
391510
1777
06:45
the trends are apparent.
122
393311
1491
06:48
We are living at a moment
in which the very fabric of human society
123
396444
5255
06:53
is being rewoven.
124
401723
1789
06:57
If you saw the cover of The Economist
a couple of days ago --
125
405057
3220
07:00
it said that 80 percent
of the people on the planet,
126
408301
3546
07:03
by the year 2020, would have a smartphone.
127
411871
2933
07:07
They would have a small computer
connected to the Internet in their pocket.
128
415564
3853
07:11
In most of Africa, the cell phone
penetration rate is 80 percent.
129
419808
4525
07:17
We passed the point last October
130
425749
2664
07:20
when there were more
mobile cellular devices, SIM cards,
131
428437
3971
07:24
out in the world than there were people.
132
432432
2116
07:27
We are within years
of a profound moment in our history,
133
435166
5896
07:33
when effectively every single
human being on the planet
134
441086
5357
07:38
is going to be part of a man-made
system for the first time,
135
446467
4608
07:43
able to touch anyone else --
136
451099
2041
07:45
touch them for good, touch them for ill.
137
453164
2362
07:47
And the changes associated with that
are changing the very nature
138
455999
5826
07:53
of every aspect of governance
and life on the planet
139
461849
3601
07:57
in ways that our leaders
ought to be thinking about,
140
465474
3446
08:00
when they're thinking about
these immediate threats.
141
468944
2480
08:03
On the security side,
142
471824
1766
08:05
we've come out of a Cold War in which
it was too costly to fight a nuclear war,
143
473614
5504
08:11
and so we didn't,
144
479142
1534
08:12
to a period that I call
Cool War, cyber war,
145
480700
3817
08:16
where the costs of conflict are actually
so low, that we may never stop.
146
484541
5051
08:22
We may enter a period of constant warfare,
147
490137
2726
08:24
and we know this because
we've been in it for several years.
148
492887
4411
08:29
And yet, we don't have the basic doctrines
to guide us in this regard.
149
497322
5551
08:35
We don't have the basic ideas formulated.
150
503255
2091
08:37
If someone attacks us with a cyber attack,
151
505370
2540
08:39
do have the ability to respond
with a kinetic attack?
152
507934
3115
08:43
We don't know.
153
511787
1207
08:45
If somebody launches a cyber attack,
how do we deter them?
154
513573
4085
08:49
When China launched
a series of cyber attacks,
155
517682
2187
08:51
what did the U.S. government do?
156
519893
1527
08:53
It said, we're going to indict
a few of these Chinese guys,
157
521444
3985
08:57
who are never coming to America.
158
525453
1742
08:59
They're never going to be anywhere near
a law enforcement officer
159
527897
3949
09:03
who's going to take them into custody.
160
531870
2005
09:06
It's a gesture -- it's not a deterrent.
161
534252
2890
09:09
Special forces operators
out there in the field today
162
537678
3798
09:13
discover that small groups
of insurgents with cell phones
163
541500
4871
09:18
have access to satellite imagery
that once only superpowers had.
164
546395
5271
09:23
In fact, if you've got a cell phone,
165
551690
2167
09:25
you've got access to power
that a superpower didn't have,
166
553881
3316
09:29
and would have highly
classified 10 years ago.
167
557221
2155
09:31
In my cell phone,
I have an app that tells me
168
559400
2891
09:34
where every plane in the world is,
and its altitude, and its speed,
169
562315
4540
09:38
and what kind of aircraft it is,
170
566879
1822
09:40
and where it's going
and where it's landing.
171
568725
2916
09:44
They have apps that allow them to know
172
572429
4549
09:49
what their adversary is about to do.
173
577002
2219
09:51
They're using these tools in new ways.
174
579245
2376
09:53
When a cafe in Sydney
was taken over by a terrorist,
175
581645
4114
09:57
he went in with a rifle...
176
585783
2293
10:00
and an iPad.
177
588100
1243
10:01
And the weapon was the iPad.
178
589936
2561
10:04
Because he captured people,
he terrorized them,
179
592999
3299
10:08
he pointed the iPad at them,
180
596322
2705
10:11
and then he took the video
and he put it on the Internet,
181
599051
2672
10:13
and he took over the world's media.
182
601747
2023
10:17
But it doesn't just affect
the security side.
183
605861
3468
10:22
The relations between great powers --
184
610132
1829
10:23
we thought we were past the bipolar era.
185
611985
2365
10:27
We thought we were in a unipolar world,
186
615259
1874
10:29
where all the big issues were resolved.
187
617157
1894
10:31
Remember? It was the end of history.
188
619075
1717
10:34
But we're not.
189
622129
1296
10:35
We're now seeing that our
basic assumptions about the Internet --
190
623449
4388
10:39
that it was going to connect us,
weave society together --
191
627861
4061
10:43
are not necessarily true.
192
631946
1656
10:46
In countries like China,
you have the Great Firewall of China.
193
634083
3196
10:49
You've got countries saying no,
if the Internet happens within our borders
194
637303
3520
10:52
we control it within our borders.
195
640847
1575
10:54
We control the content.
We are going to control our security.
196
642446
2860
10:57
We are going to manage that Internet.
197
645330
1766
10:59
We are going to say what can be on it.
198
647120
1813
11:00
We're going to set
a different set of rules.
199
648957
2051
11:03
Now you might think,
well, that's just China.
200
651032
2097
11:05
But it's not just China.
201
653153
1714
11:07
It's China, India, Russia.
202
655651
2729
11:10
It's Saudi Arabia,
it's Singapore, it's Brazil.
203
658708
3100
11:13
After the NSA scandal, the Russians,
the Chinese, the Indians, the Brazilians,
204
661832
4514
11:18
they said, let's create
a new Internet backbone,
205
666370
3055
11:21
because we can't be dependent
on this other one.
206
669449
2482
11:23
And so all of a sudden, what do you have?
207
671955
1969
11:26
You have a new bipolar world
208
674400
2499
11:28
in which cyber-internationalism,
209
676923
2191
11:31
our belief,
210
679138
1151
11:32
is challenged by cyber-nationalism,
211
680313
2837
11:35
another belief.
212
683174
1265
11:37
We are seeing these changes
everywhere we look.
213
685593
3171
11:41
We are seeing the advent of mobile money.
214
689629
1978
11:43
It's happening in the places
you wouldn't expect.
215
691631
2297
11:45
It's happening in Kenya and Tanzania,
216
693952
2377
11:48
where millions of people who haven't
had access to financial services
217
696353
3269
11:51
now conduct all those
services on their phones.
218
699646
2495
11:54
There are 2.5 million people
who don't have financial service access
219
702702
4500
11:59
that are going to get it soon.
220
707226
2016
12:01
A billion of them are going
to have the ability to access it
221
709740
2813
12:04
on their cell phone soon.
222
712577
1195
12:05
It's not just going to give them
the ability to bank.
223
713796
2853
12:08
It's going to change
what monetary policy is.
224
716957
2877
12:11
It's going to change what money is.
225
719858
2636
12:15
Education is changing in the same way.
226
723262
2171
12:18
Healthcare is changing in the same way.
227
726430
2461
12:20
How government services are delivered
is changing in the same way.
228
728915
3494
12:25
And yet, in Washington, we are debating
229
733607
4262
12:29
whether to call the terrorist group
that has taken over Syria and Iraq
230
737893
5465
12:35
ISIS or ISIL or Islamic State.
231
743382
4160
12:40
We are trying to determine
232
748540
3111
12:43
how much we want to give
in a negotiation with the Iranians
233
751675
5289
12:48
on a nuclear deal which deals
with the technologies of 50 years ago,
234
756988
4799
12:53
when in fact, we know that the Iranians
right now are engaged in cyber war with us
235
761811
5358
12:59
and we're ignoring it, partially
because businesses are not willing
236
767193
6034
13:05
to talk about the attacks
that are being waged on them.
237
773251
3118
13:09
And that gets us to another breakdown
238
777399
2809
13:12
that's crucial,
239
780232
1224
13:13
and another breakdown that couldn't be
more important to a group like this,
240
781480
3711
13:17
because the growth of America
and real American national security
241
785215
3652
13:20
and all of the things that drove progress
even during the Cold War,
242
788891
4441
13:25
was a public-private partnership
between science, technology and government
243
793356
4751
13:30
that began when Thomas Jefferson
sat alone in his laboratory
244
798131
3508
13:33
inventing new things.
245
801663
1843
13:36
But it was the canals
and railroads and telegraph;
246
804528
3810
13:40
it was radar and the Internet.
247
808362
2316
13:43
It was Tang, the breakfast drink --
248
811129
2284
13:45
probably not the most important
of those developments.
249
813437
2877
13:48
But what you had was
a partnership and a dialogue,
250
816795
2879
13:51
and the dialogue has broken down.
251
819698
2265
13:53
It's broken down because in Washington,
252
821987
2379
13:56
less government is considered more.
253
824390
1766
13:58
It's broken down because there is,
believe it or not,
254
826180
2479
14:00
in Washington, a war on science --
255
828683
1840
14:02
despite the fact that
in all of human history,
256
830547
3039
14:05
every time anyone has waged
a war on science,
257
833610
2960
14:08
science has won.
258
836594
1601
14:11
(Applause)
259
839463
4927
14:16
But we have a government
that doesn't want to listen,
260
844712
4196
14:20
that doesn't have people
at the highest levels
261
848932
2159
14:23
that understand this.
262
851115
1154
14:24
In the nuclear age,
263
852293
1151
14:25
when there were people
in senior national security jobs,
264
853468
3167
14:28
they were expected to speak throw-weight.
265
856659
3028
14:32
They were expected to know
the lingo, the vocabulary.
266
860005
3018
14:35
If you went to the highest level
of the U.S. government now
267
863047
2799
14:37
and said, "Talk to me about cyber,
about neuroscience,
268
865870
2533
14:40
about the things that are going
to change the world of tomorrow,"
269
868427
3140
14:43
you'd get a blank stare.
270
871591
1151
14:44
I know, because when I wrote this book,
271
872766
1921
14:46
I talked to 150 people,
many from the science and tech side,
272
874711
3040
14:49
who felt like they were being
shunted off to the kids' table.
273
877775
3056
14:53
Meanwhile, on the tech side,
274
881389
2082
14:55
we have lots of wonderful people
creating wonderful things,
275
883495
3805
14:59
but they started in garages
and they didn't need the government
276
887324
2957
15:02
and they don't want the government.
277
890305
1673
15:04
Many of them have a political view
that's somewhere between
278
892002
2767
15:06
libertarian and anarchic:
279
894793
1894
15:08
leave me alone.
280
896711
1361
15:11
But the world's coming apart.
281
899305
1814
15:13
All of a sudden, there are going to be
massive regulatory changes
282
901668
3389
15:17
and massive issues
associated with conflict
283
905081
2918
15:20
and massive issues associated
with security and privacy.
284
908023
4285
15:24
And we haven't even gotten
to the next set of issues,
285
912332
2495
15:26
which are philosophical issues.
286
914841
1974
15:29
If you can't vote,
if you can't have a job,
287
917601
2822
15:32
if you can't bank,
if you can't get health care,
288
920447
2492
15:34
if you can't be educated
without Internet access,
289
922963
2442
15:37
is Internet access a fundamental right
that should be written into constitutions?
290
925429
4911
15:42
If Internet access is a fundamental right,
291
930364
3171
15:45
is electricity access for the 1.2 billion
who don't have access to electricity
292
933559
4158
15:49
a fundamental right?
293
937741
1417
15:51
These are fundamental issues.
Where are the philosophers?
294
939500
3029
15:54
Where's the dialogue?
295
942553
1660
15:57
And that brings me
to the reason that I'm here.
296
945590
2516
16:00
I live in Washington. Pity me.
297
948559
2518
16:03
(Laughter)
298
951101
1770
16:04
The dialogue isn't happening there.
299
952895
2267
16:07
These big issues
that will change the world,
300
955932
2395
16:10
change national security,
change economics,
301
958351
2648
16:13
create hope, create threats,
302
961023
2883
16:15
can only be resolved
when you bring together
303
963930
2714
16:18
groups of people who understand
science and technology
304
966668
3381
16:22
back together with government.
305
970073
1673
16:23
Both sides need each other.
306
971770
2180
16:26
And until we recreate that connection,
307
974486
4752
16:31
until we do what helped America grow
and helped other countries grow,
308
979262
5431
16:36
then we are going to grow
ever more vulnerable.
309
984717
3070
16:40
The risks associated with 9/11
will not be measured
310
988547
3811
16:44
in terms of lives lost by terror attacks
311
992382
3006
16:47
or buildings destroyed
or trillions of dollars spent.
312
995412
4085
16:52
They'll be measured in terms of the costs
of our distraction from critical issues
313
1000040
4903
16:56
and our inability to get together
314
1004967
3733
17:00
scientists, technologists,
government leaders,
315
1008724
4196
17:04
at a moment of transformation
akin to the beginning of the Renaissance,
316
1012944
5135
17:10
akin to the beginning
of the major transformational eras
317
1018103
3718
17:13
that have happened on Earth,
318
1021845
2489
17:16
and start coming up with,
if not the right answers,
319
1024358
4446
17:20
then at least the right questions.
320
1028828
2353
17:23
We are not there yet,
321
1031205
2043
17:25
but discussions like this
and groups like you
322
1033272
3064
17:28
are the places where those questions
can be formulated and posed.
323
1036360
3786
17:32
And that's why I believe
that groups like TED,
324
1040553
4554
17:37
discussions like this around the planet,
325
1045131
2593
17:39
are the place where the future
of foreign policy, of economic policy,
326
1047748
4710
17:44
of social policy, of philosophy,
will ultimately take place.
327
1052482
5487
17:50
And that's why it's been
a pleasure speaking to you.
328
1058394
2430
17:52
Thank you very, very much.
329
1060848
1255
17:54
(Applause)
330
1062127
4866

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Rothkopf - Foreign policy strategist
With books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape.

Why you should listen

David Rothkopf draws on decades of foreign policy experience to clarify the events shaking today’s world -- and develops strategies for organizations to weather them and those looming ahead. Rothkopf is CEO of The Rothkopf Group, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former CEO and Editor of the FP Group (which publishes Foreign Policy Magazine and Foreign Policy.com).

Rothkopf's books (including most recently National Insecurity, which focuses on the treacherous post-9/11 national security climate) argue that the nature of power and those who wield it are fundamentally transforming. He is the author of the TED Book, The Great Questions of Tomorrow.

More profile about the speaker
David Rothkopf | Speaker | TED.com