TED2006
Larry Brilliant: My wish: Help me stop pandemics
Larry Brilliant želi spriječiti pandemije
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Primivši TED nagradu 2006., dr. Larry Brilliant govori kako su boginje iskorijenjene s planete i zahtijeva novi globalni sustav koji može identificirati i suzbiti pandemije prije nego se prošire.
Larry Brilliant - Epidemiologist, philanthropist
TED Prize winner Larry Brilliant has spent his career solving the ills of today -- from overseeing the last smallpox cases to saving millions from blindness -- and building technologies of the future. Now, as Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, he's redefining how we solve the world's biggest problems. Full bio
TED Prize winner Larry Brilliant has spent his career solving the ills of today -- from overseeing the last smallpox cases to saving millions from blindness -- and building technologies of the future. Now, as Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, he's redefining how we solve the world's biggest problems. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I'm the luckiest guy in the world.
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Ja sam najsretniji čovjek na svijetu.
00:28
I got to see the last case of killer smallpox in the world.
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Uspio sam vidjeti posljednji slučaj boginja u svijetu.
00:32
I was in India this past year,
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Bio sam u Indiji protekle godine
00:34
and I may have seen the last cases of polio in the world.
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i moguće da sam vidio posljednje slučajeve polija na svijetu.
00:40
There's nothing that makes you feel more -- the blessing and the honor
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Nema ničeg što vas može učiniti više – blagoslov i čast
00:44
of working in a program like that than to know
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rada u takvom programu i spoznaja
00:48
that something that horrible no longer exists.
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da nešto tako užasno više ne postoji.
00:52
So, I'm going to tell -- (Applause) --
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Pa, ispričat ću vam – (Pljesak) --
00:56
so, I'm going to show you some dirty pictures.
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pokazat ću vam neke slike groznih stvari.
00:59
They are difficult to watch, but you should look at them with optimism
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Teške su za gledati, ali trebate ih gledati s optimizmom
01:05
because the horror of these pictures will be matched
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jer će užas ovih fotografija biti izjednačen
01:10
by the uplifting quality of knowing that they no longer exist.
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s kvalitetom spoznaje da više ne postoje.
01:15
But first I'm going to tell you a little bit about my own journey.
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Ali, prvo ću vam ispričati nešto o svom vlastitom putovanju.
01:20
My background is not exactly the conventional medical education
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Moja pozadina i nije baš konvencionalno medicinsko školovanje
01:23
that you might expect.
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koje biste mogli očekivati.
01:27
When I was an intern in San Francisco,
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Kada sam bio stažist u San Franciscu,
01:30
I heard about a group of Native Americans
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čuo sam za grupu Indijanaca,
01:33
who had taken over Alcatraz Island,
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koji su preuzeli otok Alcatraz,
01:35
and a Native American who wanted to give birth on that island,
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i domorotkinji koja je željela roditi na otoku,
01:38
and no other doctor wanted to go and help her give birth.
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ali nije bilo liječnika koji je želio otići i pomoći joj pri porodu.
01:42
I went out to Alcatraz, and I lived on the island for several weeks.
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Otišao sam na Alcatraz, i živio na otoku nekoliko tjedana.
01:46
She gave birth; I caught the baby; I got off the island;
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Ona je rodila, ulovio sam bebu, otišao s otoka,
01:49
I landed in San Francisco; and all the press wanted to talk to me
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iskrcao se u San Francisco, i svi su mediji željeli pričati sa mnom
01:53
because my three weeks on the island made me an expert in Indian affairs.
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jer su me moja tri tjedna učinila stručnjakom za poslove Indijanaca.
01:58
I wound up on every television show.
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Pojavio sam se na svakom televizijskom showu.
02:00
Someone saw me on television; they called me up; and they asked me
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Netko me vidio na televiziji, nazvali su me i pitali me
02:03
if I'd like to be in a movie and to play a young doctor
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želim li biti u filmu i igrati mladog liječnika
02:06
for a bunch of rock and roll stars who were traveling in a bus ride
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za hrpetinu zvijezda rock'n'rolla koji su putovali autobusom
02:09
from San Francisco to England. And I said, yes, I would do that,
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od San Francisca do Engleske. I rekao sam – da, učinio bih to,
02:13
so I became the doctor in an absolutely awful movie
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te sam postao liječnik u apsolutno groznom filmu
02:17
called "Medicine Ball Caravan."
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nazvanom „Medicine Ball Caravan.“
02:20
Now, you know from the '60s,
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Dakle, znate da u '60.-ima,
02:22
you're either on the bus or you're off the bus.
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ili ste u autobusu ili niste.
02:25
I was on the bus. My wife and I, of 37 years, joined the bus.
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Moja supruga i ja, prije 37 godina, pridružili smo se autobusu.
02:28
Our bus ride took us from San Francisco to London.
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Naš autobus vozio nas je od San Francisca do Londona.
02:31
We switched buses at the big pond. We then got on two more buses
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Presjeli smo na Atlantiku. Tada smo sjeli na dva autobusa
02:35
and we drove through Turkey and Iran, Afghanistan,
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i vozili se kroz Tursku i Iran, Afganistan,
02:38
over the Khyber Pass, into Pakistan, like every other young doctor.
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preko prijevoja Khyber, u Pakistan, kao i svaki drugi mladi liječnik.
02:43
This is us at the Khyber Pass, and that's our bus.
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Ovo smo mi na prijevoju Khyber, a ovo je naš autobus.
02:45
We had some difficulty getting over the Khyber Pass,
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Imali smo nekih poteškoća s prelaskom preko prijevoja,
02:49
but we wound up in India.
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ali smo završili u Indiji.
02:52
And then, like everyone else in our generation,
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I onda, kao i svi drugi u našoj generaciji,
02:54
we went to live in a Himalayan monastery.
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otišli smo živjeti u himalajanski samostan.
02:56
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:00
This is just like a residency program,
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Ovo je kao specijalistički staž,
03:02
for those of you that are in medical school.
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za one od vas koji su na studiju medicine.
03:04
And we studied with a wise man, a guru named Karoli Baba,
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I učili smo s mudrim čovjekom, guruom zvanim Karoli Baba
03:10
who then told me to get rid of the dress,
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koji mi je tada rekao da se riješim haljine,
03:13
put on a three-piece suit,
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nabacim trodjelno odijelo,
03:15
go join the United Nations as a diplomat
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pridružim se Ujedinjenim narodima kao diplomat
03:18
and work for the World Health Organization.
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i radim za Svjetsku zdravstvenu organizaciju.
03:21
And he made an outrageous prediction that smallpox would be eradicated,
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Izrekao je silovito proročanstvo da će boginje biti iskorijenjene
03:25
and that this was God's gift to humanity
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i da je to bio Božji dar čovječanstvu
03:28
because of the hard work of dedicated scientists.
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zbog teškog rada posvećenih znanstvenika.
03:31
And that prediction came true, and this little girl is Rahima Banu,
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I to se proročanstvo ispunilo, i ova mala djevojčica je Rahima Banu,
03:36
and she was the last case of killer smallpox in the world.
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i ona je bila zadnji slučaj ubojitih boginja u svijetu.
03:40
And this document is the certificate that the global commission signed
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I ovaj dokument je certifikat da je globalno povjerenstvo
03:45
certifying the world to have eradicated the first disease in history.
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potvrdilo svijetu da je iskorijenjena prva bolest u povijesti.
03:51
The key to eradicating smallpox was early detection, early response.
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Ključ iskorijenjenja boginja je bilo rano otkriće, rani odgovor.
03:57
I'm going to ask you to repeat that: early detection, early response.
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Zamolit ću vas da ponovite to, rano otkrivanje, rani odgovor.
04:01
Can you say that?
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Možete li to reći?
04:03
Audience: Early detection, early response.
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Publika: Rano otkrivanje, rani odgovor.
04:05
Larry Brilliant: Smallpox was the worst disease in history.
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Larry Brilliant: Boginje su bile najgora bolest u povijesti.
04:08
It killed more people than all the wars in history.
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Ubile su više ljudi nego ratovi u povijesti.
04:11
In the last century, it killed 500 million people.
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U posljednjem stoljeću, ubile su 500 milijuna ljudi.
04:17
More than two -- you're reading about Larry Page already,
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Više od dva-- već čitate o Larryju Pageu,
04:20
somebody reads very fast. (Laughter)
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netko čita jako brzo. (Smijeh)
04:22
In the year that Larry Page and Sergey Brin --
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U godini kada su Larry Page i Sergey Brin –
04:25
with whom I have a certain affection and a new affiliation --
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prema kojem osjećam određenu naklonost i novo povezivanje –
04:28
in the year in which they were born,
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u godini kada su oni rođeni,
04:30
two million people died of smallpox.
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dva milijuna ljudi umrlo je od boginja.
04:33
We declared smallpox eradicated in 1980.
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Objavili smo da su boginje iskorijenjene 1980.
04:38
This is the most important slide that I've ever seen in public health
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Ovo je najvažniji slajd koji sam vidio u javnom zdravstvu
04:42
because it shows you to be the richest and the strongest,
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jer vam pokazuje da biti najbogatiji i najsnažniji,
04:46
and to be kings and queens of the world,
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i biti kraljevi i kraljice svijeta,
04:48
did not protect you from dying of smallpox.
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nije štitilo od umiranja od boginja.
04:50
Never can you doubt that we are all in this together.
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Nikad se ne može sumnjati da smo u ovome svi zajedno.
04:55
But to see smallpox from the perspective of a sovereign
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Ali, vidjeti boginje iz perspektive vladara
04:59
is the wrong perspective.
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je kriva perspektiva.
05:01
You should see it from the perspective of a mother
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Trebali biste ih vidjeti iz perspektive majke
05:04
watching her child develop this disease and standing by helplessly.
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koja gleda svoje dijete kako razvija ovu bolest i stoji ondje bespomoćno.
05:08
Day one, day two, day three, day four, day five, day six.
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Dan jedan, dan dva, dan tri, dan četiri, dan pet, dan šest.
05:19
You're a mother and you're watching your child,
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Vi ste majka i gledate svoje dijete,
05:22
and on day six, you see pustules that become hard.
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i šesti dan, vidite čiriće koji otvrdnjavaju.
05:27
Day seven, they show the classic scars of smallpox umbilication.
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Dan sedam, pokazuju svoje tipične ožiljke udubljivanja boginja.
05:33
Day eight.
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Dan osam.
05:34
And Al Gore said earlier that the most photographed image in the world,
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I Al Gore je rekao ranije da je najfotografiranija slika na svijetu,
05:39
the most printed image in the world,
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najprintanija slika u svijetu,
05:41
was that of the Earth. But this was in 1974,
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bila ta slika Zemlje. Ali, to je bilo 1974.,
05:44
and as of that moment this photograph was the photograph
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i od tog trenutka ova fotografija je bila fotografija
05:47
that was the most widely printed
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koja je najviše puta isprintana
05:49
because we printed two billion copies of this photograph,
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jer smo isprintali dvije milijarde primjeraka ove fotografije,
05:52
and we took them hand to hand, door to door,
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i nosili smo je od ruke do ruke, od vrata do vrata,
05:55
to show people and ask them if there was smallpox in their house
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kako bismo je pokazali ljudima i pitali ih je li bilo boginja u njihovoj kući
06:00
because that was our surveillance system. We didn't have Google;
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jer to je bio naš nadzorni sustav. Nismo imali Google,
06:04
we didn't have web crawlers; we didn't have computers.
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nismo imali web pretraživače, nismo imali računala.
06:08
By day nine, you look at this picture, and you're horrified.
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Do devetog dana, pogledate ovu fotografiju i zgroženi ste.
06:13
I look at this picture and I say, "Thank God"
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Ja pogledam ovu fotografiju i kažem, „Hvala Bogu“
06:15
because it's clear that this is only an ordinary case of smallpox,
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jer je jasno da je ovo samo uobičajen slučaj boginja
06:19
and I know this child will live.
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i ja znam da će ovo dijete živjeti.
06:22
And by day 13, the lesions are scabbing, his eyelids are swollen,
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13-tog dana, lezije se krastaju, očni kapci su natečeni,
06:27
but you know this child has no other secondary infection.
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ali vi znate da ovo dijete nema sekundarnu infekciju.
06:31
And by day 20, while he will be scarred for life, he will live.
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I 20-tog dana, iako će biti unakažen, živjet će.
06:36
There are other kinds of smallpox that are not like that.
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Ima drugih vrsta boginja koje nisu takve.
06:40
This is confluent smallpox,
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Ovo su rasprostranjene boginje
06:42
in which there isn't a single place on the body where you could put a finger
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i ne postoji dio tijela na koji možete staviti prst,
06:46
and not be covered by lesions.
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a da nije prekriven oštećenjima.
06:49
Flat smallpox, which killed 100 percent of people who got it.
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Ravne boginje, koje su ubile 100 posto ljudi koji su ih imali.
06:53
And hemorrhagic smallpox, the most cruel of all,
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I hemoragične boginje, najopakije od svih,
06:57
which had a predilection for pregnant women.
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koje su imale sklonost trudnicama.
07:00
I've probably had 50 women die. They all had hemorrhagic smallpox.
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Ja sam vjerojatno bio prisutan smrti 50 žena. Sve su imale hemoragične boginje.
07:04
I've never seen anybody die from it who wasn't a pregnant woman.
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Nikad nisam vidio nikoga da je umro od toga, a da nije bio trudna žena.
07:09
In 1967, the WHO embarked on what was an outrageous program
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1967. WHO se upleo u nešto što je bio nečuven program
07:12
to eradicate a disease.
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iskorjenjivanja bolesti.
07:14
In that year, there were 34 countries affected with smallpox.
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Te godine, 34 države su bile pogođene boginjama.
07:18
By 1970, we were down to 18 countries.
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Do 1970, smanjili smo taj broj na 18 država.
07:22
1974, we were down to five countries.
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1974, bili smo na pet država.
07:24
But in that year, smallpox exploded throughout India.
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Ali u toj godini, boginje su buknule Indijom.
07:29
And India was the place where smallpox made its last stand.
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I Indija je mjesto koje je boginjama bilo posljednja postaja.
07:34
In 1974, India had a population of 600 million.
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1974.godine, Indija je imala populaciju od 600 milijuna ljudi.
07:37
There are 21 linguistic states in India,
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U Indiji postoji 21 govorno područje,
07:40
which is like saying 21 different countries.
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što je kao 21 različita zemlja.
07:43
There are 20 million people on the road at any time in buses
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Bilo je u svakom trenu 20 milijuna ljudi na putu – u autobusima,
07:46
and trains, walking, 500,000 villages, 120 million households,
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vlakovima, hodajućih; 500.000 sela, 120 milijuna kućanstava
07:52
and none of them wanted to report if they had a case of smallpox in their house
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i nijedno od njih nije željelo prijaviti jesu li imali slučaj boginja u svojoj kući
07:57
because they thought that smallpox was the visitation of a deity,
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jer su mislili da su boginje posjet božanstva,
08:00
Shitala Mata, the cooling mother,
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Shitale Mata, majke hlađenja,
08:02
and it was wrong to bring strangers into your house
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i bilo je neispravno dovesti strance u svoju kuću
08:06
when the deity was in the house. No incentive to report smallpox.
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ako je božanstvo u kući. Nije bilo motivacije za prijavu boginja.
08:11
It wasn't just India that had smallpox deities;
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Nije samo Indija imala božanstva boginja,
08:14
smallpox deities were prevalent all over the world.
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božanstva boginja bila su rasprostranjena po cijelom svijetu.
08:18
So, how we eradicated smallpox was -- max vaccination wouldn't work.
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Dakle, kako smo iskorijenili boginje – maksimalno cijepljenje ne bi uspjelo.
08:23
You could vaccinate everybody in India,
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Mogli ste cijepiti sve u Indiji,
08:25
but one year later there'll be 21 million new babies,
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ali u sljedećoj godini bio bi 21 milijun novih beba,
08:28
which was then the population of Canada.
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što je tada bila populacija Kanade.
08:30
It wouldn't do just to vaccinate everyone.
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Ne bi bilo dovoljno samo sve cijepiti.
08:33
You had to find every single case of smallpox in the world
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Morali ste naći svaki slučaj boginja u svijetu
08:36
at the same time and draw a circle of immunity around it.
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istovremeno i napraviti krug imunosti oko njih.
08:39
And that's what we did.
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I to je ono što smo učinili.
08:42
In India alone, my 150,000 best friends and I
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Samo u Indiji, mojih 150.000 najboljih prijatelja i ja
08:45
went door to door with that same picture
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išli smo od vrata do vrata s istom onom fotografijom
08:49
to every single house in India. We made over one billion house calls.
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do svake kuće u Indiji. Napravili smo više od milijarde kućnih posjeta.
08:54
And in the process, I learned something very important.
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I usput, naučio sam nešto vrlo važno.
08:58
Every time we did a house-to-house search,
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Svaki put kad smo napravili od-kuće-do-kuće potragu,
09:02
we had a spike in the number of reports of smallpox.
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imali smo porast broja prijava boginja.
09:08
When we didn't search, we had the illusion that there was no disease.
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Kada nismo tražili, imali smo dojam da nije bilo bolesti.
09:12
When we did search, we had the illusion that there was more disease.
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Kada smo tražili, imali smo dojam da ima više bolesti.
09:17
A surveillance system was necessary
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Nadzorni sustav je bio nužan
09:19
because what we needed was early detection, early response.
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jer smo trebali rano otkrivanje, rani odgovor.
09:26
So, we searched and we searched, and we found
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Tražili smo i tražili i pronašli
09:29
every case of smallpox in India. We had a reward.
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svaki slučaj boginja u Indiji. Imali smo naknadu.
09:32
We raised the reward. We continued to increase the reward.
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Podigli smo naknadu. Nastavili smo povećavati naknadu.
09:36
We had a scorecard that we wrote on every house.
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Imali smo kartu koju smo stavljali na svaku kuću.
09:40
And as we did that, the number of reported cases in the world dropped to zero,
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I kako smo to radili, broj prijavljenih slučajeva u svijetu pao je na nulu,
09:45
and in 1980 we declared the globe free of smallpox.
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te smo 1980. objavili da je svijet slobodan od boginja.
09:51
It was the largest campaign in United Nations history until the Iraq war.
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Bila je to najveća kampanja u povijesti Ujedinjenih naroda do rata u Iraku.
09:57
150,000 people from all over the world,
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150.000 ljudi iz cijelog svijeta,
10:02
doctors of every race, religion, culture and nation,
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liječnici svih rasa, religija, kultura i nacija,
10:05
who fought side by side, brothers and sisters, with each other,
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borili su se na istoj strani, braće i sestre, jedni s drugima,
10:10
not against each other, in a common cause to make the world better.
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ne jedni protiv drugih, sa zajedničkim ciljem učiniti svijet boljim.
10:16
But smallpox was the fourth disease that was intended for eradication.
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Ali, boginje su bile četvrta bolest koja je trebala biti iskorijenjena.
10:20
We failed three other times.
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Nismo uspjeli ostala tri puta.
10:22
We failed against malaria, yellow fever and yaws.
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Nismo uspjeli protiv malarije, žute groznice i tropske frambezije.
10:25
But soon we may see polio eradicated.
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Ali, uskoro možemo vidjeti iskorijenjen polio.
10:29
But the key to eradicating polio is early detection, early response.
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Ključ za iskorjenjivanje polija je rano otkrivanje, rani odgovor.
10:35
This may be the year we eradicate polio --
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Ovo bi mogla biti godina iskorjenjenja polija –
10:38
that will make it the second disease in history.
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i to bi bila druga bolest u povijesti.
10:41
And David Heymann, who's watching this on the webcast --
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I David Heymann, koji gleda ovo putem Interneta –
10:45
David, keep on going. We're close. We're down to four countries.
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Davide, samo nastavi. Blizu smo. Ostalo su nam četiri zemlje.
10:50
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
10:56
I feel like Hank Aaron. Barry Bonds can replace me any time.
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Osjećam se kao Hank Aaron. Barry Bonds može me zamijeniti svakog trena.
11:00
Let's get another disease off the list of terrible things to worry about.
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Skinimo još jednu bolest s liste užasnih stvari zbog kojih se brinemo.
11:05
I was just in India working on the polio program.
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Baš sam bio u Indiji radeći na polio programu.
11:08
The polio surveillance program is four million people going door to door.
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Polio nadzorni sustav čini četiri milijuna ljudi koji idu od vrata do vrata.
11:14
That is the surveillance system.
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To je nadzorni sustav.
11:16
But we need to have early detection, early response.
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Ali trebali smo rano otkrivanje, rani odgovor.
11:20
Blindness, the same thing. The key to discovering blindness
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Sljepoća, ista stvar. Ključ za otkrivanje sljepoće
11:24
is doing epidemiological surveys and finding out the causes of blindness
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je epidemiološko istraživanje i otkrivanje uzroka sljepoće
11:29
so you can mount the correct response.
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tako da možete postaviti točan odgovor.
11:32
The Seva Foundation was started by a group of alumni
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Seva zaklada započeta je od strane grupe ljudi
11:36
of the smallpox eradication program who,
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koji su sudjelovali u programu iskorjenjivanja boginja i koji su,
11:39
having climbed the highest mountain,
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popevši se na najvišu planinu,
11:42
tasted the elixir of the success of eradicating a disease,
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okusili eliksir uspjeha istrebljenja bolesti
11:47
wanted to do it again.
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te su to željeli ponoviti.
11:49
And over the last 27 years, Seva's programs in 15 countries
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I proteklih 27 godina, Seva programi u 15 država
11:53
have given back sight to more than two million blind people.
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vratili su vid više od dva milijuna slijepih ljudi.
11:57
Seva got started because we wanted to apply these lessons
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Seva je započeta jer smo željeli primijeniti spoznaje
12:01
of surveillance and epidemiology
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o nadgledanju i epidemiologiji
12:03
to something which nobody else was looking at
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na nešto što nitko drugi nije gledao
12:06
as a public health issue: blindness,
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kao problem javnog zdravstva: sljepoća,
12:09
which heretofore had been thought of only as a clinical disease.
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koja je do tada bila smatrana samo kliničkim poremećajem.
12:12
In 1980, Steve Jobs gave me that computer, which is Apple number 12,
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1980., Steve Jobs dao mi je to računalo, koje je Apple broj 12,
12:18
and it's still in Kathmandu, and it's still working,
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i još uvijek je u Kathmanduu te još uvijek radi.
12:21
and we ought to go get it and auction it off and make more money for Seva.
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Trebali bi ga dati na aukciju i zaraditi više novaca za Sevu.
12:26
And we conducted the first Nepal survey ever done for health,
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Potpomagali smo prvo nepalsko istraživanje ikad napravljeno za zdravlje
12:30
and the first nationwide blindness survey ever done,
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i prvo nacionalno istraživanje sljepoće ikad učinjeno
12:33
and we had astonishing results.
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i dobili smo začuđujuće rezultate.
12:35
Instead of finding out what we thought was the case --
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Umjesto da smo saznali ono što smo očekivali da je slučaj –
12:38
that blindness was caused mostly by glaucoma and trachoma --
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da je sljepoća većinom uzrokovana glaukomom i trahomom –
12:42
we were astounded to find out that blindness was caused instead by cataract.
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bili smo iznenađeni saznanjem da je nasuprot tome sljepoća bila uzrokovana kataraktom.
12:48
You can't cure or prevent what you don't know is there.
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Ne možeš liječiti ili spriječiti nešto što ne znaš da je tu.
12:55
In your TED packages there's a DVD, "Infinite Vision,"
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U svojim TED paketima možete naći DVD ˝Neograničeni vid,˝
12:59
about Dr. V and the Aravind Eye Hospital.
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o dr. V i očnoj klinici Aravind.
13:02
I hope that you will take a look at it.
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Nadam se da ćete ga pogledati.
13:04
Aravind, which started as a Seva project,
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Aravind, koji je započeo kao Seva projekt,
13:06
is now the world's largest and best eye hospital.
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je danas najveća i najbolja očna klinika u svijetu.
13:09
This year, that one hospital will give back sight
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Ove godine ta će klinika vratiti vid
13:12
to more than 300,000 people in Tamil Nadu, India.
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više od 300.000 ljudi u Tamil Nadu, Indija.
13:16
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
13:20
Bird flu. I stand here as a representative of all terrible things --
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Ptičja gripa. Ovdje sam kao reprezentativac svih loših stvari –
13:24
this might be the worst.
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ova bi mogla biti najgora.
13:27
The key to preventing or mitigating pandemic bird flu
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Ključ u prevenciji ili ublaživanju pandemske ptičje gripe
13:31
is early detection and rapid response.
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je u ranom otkrivanju i brzom reagiranju.
13:34
We will not have a vaccine or adequate supplies of an antiviral
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Ako dođe do ptičje gripe u sljedeće tri godine,
13:39
to combat bird flu if it occurs in the next three years.
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nećemo imati cjepivo ili adekvatne zalihe antivirusa za borbu protiv nje.
13:43
WHO stages the progress of a pandemic.
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WHO navodi stupnjeve pandemije.
13:47
We are now at stage three on the pandemic alert stage,
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Sada smo na trećoj fazi opreznosti od pandemije,
13:51
with just a little bit of human-to-human transmission,
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s malim prijenosom s čovjeka na čovjeka,
13:55
but no human-to-human-to-human sustained transmission.
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ali bez prijenosa s čovjeka na čovjeka na čovjeka.
13:59
The moment WHO says we've moved to category four,
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Kada prijeđemo u četvrtu fazu, kaže WHO,
14:03
this will not be like Katrina. The world as we know it will stop.
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neće biti kao Katrina. Svijet kakav znamo će prestati.
14:08
There'll be no airplanes flying.
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Zrakoplovi više neće letjeti.
14:10
Would you get in an airplane with 250 people you didn't know,
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Biste li ušli u zrakoplov s 250 nepoznatih ljudi,
14:13
coughing and sneezing, when you knew that some of them
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koji kašlju i kišu, kada biste znali da samo neki od njih
14:16
might carry a disease that could kill you,
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mogu biti zaraženi bolešću koja bi Vas mogla ubiti,
14:18
for which you had no antivirals or vaccine?
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za koju ne bi imali ni antivirus ni cjepivo?
14:21
I did a study of the top epidemiologists in the world in October.
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U listopadu sam istražio najbolje epidemiologe u svijetu.
14:26
I asked them -- these are all fluologists and specialists in influenza --
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Pitao sam ih – svi su oni fluolozi i specijalisti za gripu –
14:30
and I asked them the questions you'd like to ask them.
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pitao sam ih pitanja koja biste ih Vi pitali.
14:33
What do you think the likelihood is that there'll be a pandemic?
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Što mislite kolika je vjerojatnost za pandemiju?
14:36
If it happens, how bad do you think it will be?
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Ako se pojavi, koliko će grozna biti?
14:39
15 percent said they thought there'd be a pandemic within three years.
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15 posto ih je reklo kako bi moglo biti pandemije u naredne tri godine.
14:44
But much worse than that,
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Još gore od toga,
14:46
90 percent said they thought there'd be a pandemic
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njih 90 posto je reklo kako misle da će biti pandemije
14:49
within your children or your grandchildren's lifetime.
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za vrijeme života Vaše djece ili unuka.
14:53
And they thought that if there was a pandemic,
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Također su mislili kako će, ako dođe do pandemije,
14:57
a billion people would get sick.
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milijarda ljudi oboliti.
15:00
As many as 165 million people would die.
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Čak 165 milijuna ljudi će umrijeti.
15:03
There would be a global recession and depression
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Došlo bi do globalne recesije i depresije
15:06
as our just-in-time inventory system
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dok bi se naš pravovremeni popisivački sustav
15:08
and the tight rubber band of globalization broke,
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i uska gumica globalizacije uništili,
15:12
and the cost to our economy of one to three trillion dollars
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i trošak našem gospodarstvu od jednog do tri bilijuna dolara
15:16
would be far worse for everyone than merely 100 million people dying
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bio bi mnogo gori nego jedva 100 milijuna umirućih ljudi
15:21
because so many more people would lose their job
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zbog toga što će toliko mnogo više ljudi ostati bez posla
15:24
and their healthcare benefits
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i zdravstvenog osiguranja
15:26
that the consequences are almost unthinkable.
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da su posljedice skoro nezamislive.
15:30
And it's getting worse because travel is getting so much better.
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I pogoršava se jer putovanje postaje sve bolje.
15:37
Let me show you a simulation of what a pandemic looks like
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Dopustite mi da Vam pokažem simulaciju pandemije
15:42
so we know what we're talking about.
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kako bi znali o čemu govorimo.
15:45
Let's assume, for example, that the first case occurs in South Asia.
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Pretpostavimo da se prvi slučaj pojavio u Južnoj Aziji.
15:50
It initially goes quite slowly.
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U početku se razvija prilično sporo.
15:52
You get two or three discrete locations.
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Bolest izbije na dvije ili tri diskretne lokacije.
15:57
Then there'll be secondary outbreaks, and the disease will spread
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Potom izbiju sekundarni napadi i bolest se proširi
16:02
from country to country so fast that you won't know what hit you.
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sa zemlje na zemlju tako brzo da ne znaš ni što se dogodilo.
16:06
Within three weeks it will be everywhere in the world.
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U roku tri tjedna bit će svugdje u svijetu.
16:10
Now, if we had an "undo" button, and we could go back and isolate it
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Kada bismo mogli poništiti situaciju i kada bismo se mogli vratiti natrag
16:16
and grab it when it first started. If we could find it early,
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i izolirati je kada je počela. Kada bi je mogli rano naći
16:19
and we had early detection and early response,
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i kada bi je rano primijetili i rano reagirali
16:22
and we could put each one of those viruses in jail --
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i kada bi mogli staviti svaki od tih virusa u ćeliju –
16:25
that's the only way to deal with something like a pandemic.
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to je jedini način za nošenje s nečim kao pandemija.
16:32
And let me show you why that is.
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I dopustite mi da Vam pokažem zašto je to tako.
16:35
We have a joke. This is an epidemic curve, and everyone in medicine,
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Postoji šala. Ovo je epidemična krivulja i svi u medicini,
16:39
I think, ultimately gets to know what it is.
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ja mislim, na kraju je i upoznaju.
16:41
But the joke is, an epidemiologist likes to arrive at an epidemic
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Šala je da epidemiolog voli stići
16:45
right here and ride to glory on the downhill curve.
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točno ovdje i proslaviti se na padajućoj krivulji.
16:49
But you don't get to do that usually.
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Inače se ne događaju takve stvari.
16:51
You usually arrive right about here.
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Obično kreneš odavde.
16:54
What we really want is to arrive right here, so we can stop the epidemic.
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Što mi zapravo želimo je krenuti ovdje kako bi mogli zaustaviti epidemiju.
16:59
But you can't always do that. But there's an organization
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Ali ne možemo uvijek to napraviti. Postoji organizacija
17:02
that has been able to find a way to learn when the first cases occur,
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koja je uspjela naći način kako saznati kada su se pojavili prvi slučajevi,
17:07
and that is called GPHIN.
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i zove se GPHIN.
17:09
It's the Global Public Health Information Network.
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To je Globalna javna zdravstvena mreža informacija.
17:12
And that simulation that I showed you that you thought was bird flu --
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A ona simulacija koju sam vam pokazao, za koju ste mislili da je ptičja gripa,
17:16
that was SARS. And SARS is the pandemic that did not occur.
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bio je SARS. SARS je pandemija do koje nije došlo.
17:20
And it didn't occur because GPHIN found the pandemic-to-be of SARS
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Do nje nije došlo jer je GPHIN pronašao buduću pandemiju SARS-a
17:27
three months before WHO actually announced it,
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tri mjeseca prije nego ju je WHO objavio,
17:33
and because of that we were able to stop the SARS pandemic.
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i zbog toga smo uspjeli zaustaviti pandemiju SARS-a.
17:37
And I think we owe a great debt of gratitude to GPHIN and to Ron St. John,
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Mislim da dugujemo veliku zahvalnost GPHIN-u i Ron St. Johnu,
17:42
who I hope is in the audience some place -- over there --
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za kojeg se nadam da sjedi u publici – ondje –
17:45
who's the founder of GPHIN.
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koji je osnivač GPHIN-a.
17:47
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
17:48
Hello, Ron.
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Bok, Ron.
17:50
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
17:58
And TED has flown Ron here from Ottawa, where GPHIN is located,
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TED je doveo Rona ovdje iz Ottawe, gdje je sjedište GPHIN-a,
18:03
because not only did GPHIN find SARS early, but
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ne samo zbog toga što je GPHIN otkrio SARS, nego
18:08
you may have seen last week that Iran announced that they had bird flu in Iran,
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i zbog, mogli ste prošli tjedan vidjeti da je Iran objavio da su otkrili ptičju gripu,
18:14
but GPHIN found the bird flu in Iran not February 14 but last September.
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ali je GPHIN otkrio pričju gripu u Iranu, ne 14. veljače nego prošlog rujna.
18:20
We need an early-warning system
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Trebamo sustav ranog upozorenja
18:22
to protect us against the things that are humanity's worst nightmare.
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da nas zaštiti od najgore noćne more čovječanstva.
18:27
And so my TED wish is based on the common denominator of these experiences.
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Tako je moja TED želja bazirana na zajedničkom nazivniku ovih eksperimenata.
18:33
Smallpox -- early detection, early response.
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Boginje – rano otkrivanje, rani odgovor.
18:35
Blindness, polio -- early detection, early response.
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Sljepoća, polio – rano otkrivanje, rani odgovor.
18:39
Pandemic bird flu -- early detection, early response. It is a litany.
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Pandemija ptičje gripe – rano otkrivanje, rani odgovor. To je litanija.
18:44
It is so obvious that our only way of dealing with these new diseases
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Toliko je očito da je naš jedini način nošenja s novim bolestima
18:49
is to find them early and to kill them before they spread.
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da ih rano nađemo i zaustavimo prije nego se prošire.
18:54
So, my TED wish is for you to help build a global system,
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I tako, moja TED želja je da pomognemo sagraditi globalni sustav,
18:58
an early-warning system,
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sustav ranog upozorenja,
19:00
to protect us against humanity's worst nightmares.
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da bi se zaštitili od naših najgorih noćnih mora.
19:04
And what I thought I would call it is "Early Detection,"
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Mislio sam ga nazvati Rano otkrivanje,
19:11
but it should really be called "Total Early Detection."
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ali u stvari bi se zapravo trebao zvati Potpuno rano otkrivanje.
19:16
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
19:18
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
19:31
But in all seriousness --
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Budimo ozbiljni –
19:33
because this idea is birthed in TED,
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zato što se ideja razvila u TED-u,
19:36
I would like it to be a legacy of TED, and I'd like to call it
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htio bih da to bude nasljedstvo TED-a, i htio bi ga nazvati
19:42
the "International System for Total Early Disease Detection."
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Međunarodni sustav za potpuno rano otkrivanje bolesti (International System for Total Early Disease Detection).
19:51
And INSTEDD then becomes our mantra.
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INSTEDD onda postaje naša mantra.
19:58
So instead of a hidden pandemic of bird flu,
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Umjesto skrivene pandemije pričje gripe,
20:01
we find it and immediately contain it.
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otkrijemo je i odmah je spriječimo.
20:04
Instead of a novel virus caused by bio-terror or bio-error,
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Umjesto novog virusa uzrokovanog biološkim terorom ili biološkom greškom,
20:08
or shift or drift, we find it, and we contain it.
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ili promjenom ili zanošenjem, mi je otkrijemo i spriječimo.
20:13
Instead of industrial accidents like oil spills or the catastrophe in Bhopal,
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Umjesto industrijskih nesreća kao izlijevanja nafte ili katastrofe u Bhopalu,
20:18
we find them, and we respond to them.
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nađemo ih i reagiramo na njih.
20:22
Instead of famine, hidden until it is too late, we detect it, and we respond.
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Umjesto da je skriveno dok nije prekasno, otkrijemo to i odgovorimo.
20:29
And instead of a system,
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I umjesto sustava
20:31
which is owned by a government and hidden in the bowels of government,
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kojeg posjeduje vlada i koji je skriven u vladinim prolazima,
20:35
let's build an early detection system
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napravimo sustav ranog otkrivanja,
20:37
that's freely available to anyone in the world in their own language.
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koji je dostupan svima u svijetu na njihovom materinjem jeziku.
20:42
Let's make it transparent, non-governmental,
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Napravimo ga vidljivim, nevladinim,
20:47
not owned by any single country or company,
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koji ne pripada nijednoj državi ili tvrtki,
20:50
housed in a neutral country, with redundant backup
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sa sjedištem u neutralnoj državi, s prekomjernom rezervom
20:53
in a different time zone and a different continent,
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u različitoj vremenskoj zoni i različitom kontinentu,
20:57
and let's build it on GPHIN. Let's start with GPHIN.
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i nadogradimo ga na GPHIN. Počnimo s GPHIN-om.
21:01
Let's increase the websites that they crawl from 20,000 to 20 million.
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Povećajmo broj web stranica koje pretražuju s 20.000 na 20 milijuna.
21:06
Let's increase the languages they crawl from seven to 70, or more.
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Povećajmo broj jezika koje koriste sa sedam na 70 ili više.
21:12
Let's build in outbound confirmation messages
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Ugradimo bezgraničnu potvrdu poruka
21:15
using text messages or SMS or instant messaging
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koristeći tekstualne poruke ili SMS ili instantne poruke
21:19
to find out from people who are within 100 meters of the rumor that you hear
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kako bi saznali od ljudi koji su u području od 100 metara od glasine koju si čuo,
21:23
if it is, in fact, valid.
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je li ona važeća činjenica.
21:25
And let's add satellite confirmation.
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Dodajmo potvrdu satelita.
21:27
And we'll add Gapminder's amazing graphics to the front end.
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Dodajmo Gapminderove odlične grafike.
21:31
And we'll grow it as a moral force in the world,
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Razvit ćemo ga kao moralnu snagu u svijetu
21:35
finding out those terrible things before anybody else knows about them,
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nalazeći grozne stvari prije svih
21:40
and sending our response to them. So that next year,
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i šaljući naš odgovor na njih. Kako bi sljedeće godine,
21:44
instead of us meeting here,
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umjesto sastanka ovdje,
21:46
lamenting how many terrible things there are in the world,
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raspravljajući o mnogim groznim stvarima u svijetu,
21:49
we will have pulled together, used the unique skills
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pribrali se, koristili naše jedinstvene sposobnosti
21:52
and the magic of this community,
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i čaroliju zajednice,
21:56
and be proud that we have done everything we can to stop pandemics,
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i bit ćemo ponosni što smo napravili sve kako bi zaustavili pandemije,
21:59
other catastrophes, and change the world beginning right now.
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ostale katastrofe i promijenili svijet - počinjući sada.
22:04
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
22:23
Chris Anderson: An amazing presentation. First of all,
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Chris Anderson: Izuzetna prezentacija. Kao prvo,
22:27
just so everyone understands, you're saying that by building --
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samo da svi razumiju, vi kažete da gradeći –
22:31
by creating web crawlers, looking on the Internet for patterns,
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kreirajući, web pretraživače, gledajući internet za uzorke,
22:36
they can detect something suspicious before WHO,
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oni mogu otkriti nešto sumnjivo prije WHO,
22:42
before anyone else can see it?
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prije nego što itko drugi vidi?
22:44
Just explain. Give an example of how that could possibly be true.
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Samo objasnite. Dajte mi primjer kako tako nešto može biti istinito.
22:47
Larry Brilliant: First of all, you're not mad about the copyright violation?
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Larry Brilliant: Kao prvo, niste ljuti zbog kršenja autorskih prava?
22:50
CA: No. I love it. (Laughter)
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CA: Ne, obožavam to.
22:53
LB: Well, you know, as Ron St. John -- I hope you'll go and meet him
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LB: Eto, vidite, kao Ron St. John – ja se nadam da ćete otići i upoznati ga
22:56
in the dinner afterwards and talk to him --
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za večerom poslije i popričati s njim –
22:59
When he started GPHIN -- In 1997, there was an outbreak of bird flu.
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Kad smo osnovali GPHIN 1997., bilo je izbijanje ptičje gripe.
23:05
H5N1. It was in Hong Kong. And a remarkable doctor in Hong Kong
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H5N1. To je bilo u Hong Kongu. I izuzetan liječnik iz Hong Konga
23:09
responded immediately by slaughtering 1.5 million chickens and birds,
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je odmah reagirao ubivši 1.5 milijuna pilića i ptica,
23:15
and they stopped that outbreak in its tracks.
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i sasjekao izbijanje u korijenu.
23:18
Immediate detection, immediate response.
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Neposredno otkrivanje, neposredno reagiranje.
23:21
Then a number of years went by,
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Zatim je određeni broj godina prošao
23:23
and there were a lot of rumors about bird flu.
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i bilo je dosta glasina o ptičjoj gripi.
23:25
Ron and his team in Ottawa began to crawl the web,
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Ron i njegov tim iz Ottawe započeli su pretraživati internet,
23:29
only crawling 20,000 different websites, mostly periodicals,
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pretražujući samo 20.000 različitih web stranica, većinom periodički,
23:34
and they read about and heard about a concern of a lot of children
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i pročitali su i čuli o zabrinutosti mnogih za djecu
23:39
who had high fever and symptoms of bird flu.
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koja su imala visoku temperaturu i simptome ptičje gripe.
23:42
They reported this to WHO. WHO took a little while taking action
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Prijavili su to WHO-u. WHO-u je trebalo neko vrijeme kako bi stupio u akciju,
23:47
because WHO will only receive a report from a government,
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jer WHO prima izvješća od vlade,
23:52
because it's the United Nations.
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jer su to Ujedinjeni Narodi.
23:54
But they were able to point to WHO and let them know
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Ali, bili su u mogućnosti pokazati WHO-u i javiti im
23:58
that there was this surprising and unexplained cluster of illnesses
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da se događa velik broj iznenađujućih i neobjašnjivih bolesti
24:02
that looked like bird flu.
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koje su izgledale kao ptičja gripa.
24:04
That turned out to be SARS.
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Ispalo je da je to bio SARS.
24:06
That's how the world found out about SARS.
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Tako je svijet saznao za SARS.
24:08
And because of that we were able to stop SARS.
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I zbog toga smo uspjeli zaustaviti SARS.
24:12
Now, what's really important is that, before there was GPHIN,
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Sada, što je vrlo važno je da, prije nego što je bio GPHIN,
24:15
100 percent of all the world's reports of bad things --
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100 posto svih ljudskih izvješća o lošim stvarima –
24:19
whether you're talking about famine or you're talking about bird flu
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bilo da se radi o gladi ili o ptičjoj gripi
24:22
or you're talking about Ebola --
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ili o Eboli –
24:24
100 percent of all those reports came from nations.
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100 posto tih izvješća došlo je iz naroda.
24:27
The moment these guys in Ottawa, on a budget of 800,000 dollars a year,
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Trenutak kada su ti dečki iz Ottawe, s budžetom od 800.000 dolara na godinu,
24:32
got cracking, 75 percent of all the reports in the world came from GPHIN,
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počeli raditi, 75 posto svih izvješća u svijetu dolazilo je od GPHIN-a,
24:38
25 percent of all the reports in the world
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25 posto svih izvješća u svijetu
24:40
came from all the other 180 nations.
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dolazilo je od ostalih 180 naroda.
24:43
Now, here's what's real interesting,
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Sada, evo što je stvarno zanimljivo,
24:45
after they'd been working for a couple years,
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kada su već radili nekoliko godina,
24:48
what do you think happened to those nations?
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što mislite što se dogodilo s tim narodima?
24:51
They felt pretty stupid, so they started sending in their reports earlier.
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Osjećali su se prilično glupo pa su počeli slati izvješća ranije.
24:54
Now their reporting percentage is down to 50 percent
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Sada je postotak njihovih izvješća pao za 50 posto
24:57
because other nations have started to report.
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jer su ostali narodi počeli slati svoja izvješća ranije.
25:00
So, can you find diseases early by crawling the web?
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Znači, možete li pronaći izvješća ranije pretražujući internet?
25:04
Of course you can. Can you find it even earlier than GPHIN does now?
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Naravno da možete. Možete li ih naći prije nego to učini GPHIN?
25:09
Of course you can. You saw that they found SARS
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Naravno da možete. Vidjeli ste da su pronašli SARS
25:12
using their Chinese web crawler a full six weeks
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koristeći kineski internet pretraživać punih šest tjedana
25:16
before they found it using their English web crawler.
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ranije prije nego što su ga našli koristeći njihov engleski internet pretraživač.
25:20
Well, they're only crawling in seven languages.
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Zapravo, oni pretražuju u samo sedam jezika.
25:22
These bad viruses really don't have any intention of showing up
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Ti grozni virusi stvarno nemaju nikakvu namjeru pojaviti se
25:25
first in English or Spanish or French.
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prvo na engleskom ili španjolskom ili francuskom.
25:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
25:28
So, yes, I want to take GPHIN; I want to build on it;
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Da, hoću uzeti GPHIN, hoću raditi na njemu,
25:34
I want to add all the languages of the world that we possibly can;
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hoću dodati sve jezike na svijetu koje mogu,
25:38
I want to make this open to everybody
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hoću otvoriti oči svima
25:40
so that the health officer in Nairobi or in Patna, Bihar
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kako bi zdravstveni radnici u Nairobiju ili Patni, Bihar
25:43
will have as much access to it as the folks in Ottawa or in CDC;
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imali istu dostupnost kao i ljudi iz Ottawe ili iz CDC-a.
25:48
and I want to make it part of our culture that there is a community
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Želim napraviti dijelom naše kulture postojanje zajednice
25:52
of people who are watching out for the worst nightmares of humanity,
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ljudi koji paze na najgore noćne more čovječanstva,
25:56
and that it's accessible to everyone.
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i da je to dostupno svima.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Larry Brilliant - Epidemiologist, philanthropistTED Prize winner Larry Brilliant has spent his career solving the ills of today -- from overseeing the last smallpox cases to saving millions from blindness -- and building technologies of the future. Now, as Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, he's redefining how we solve the world's biggest problems.
Why you should listen
Larry Brilliant's career path, as unlikely as it is inspirational, has proven worthy of his surname. Trained as a doctor, he was living in a Himalayan monastery in the early 1970s when his guru told him he should help rid the world of smallpox. He joined the World Health Organization's eradication project, directed efforts to eliminate the disease in India and eventually presided over the last case of smallpox on the planet.
Not content with beating a single disease, he founded the nonprofit Seva Foundation, which has cured more than two million people of blindness in 15 countries through innovative surgery, self-sufficient eye care systems and low-cost manufacturing of intraocular lenses. Outside the medical field, he found time to cofound the legendary online community The Well, and run two public tech companies. Time and WIRED magazines call him a "technology visionary."
His 2006 TED Prize wish drew on both sides of his career: He challenged the TED community to help him build a global early-response system to spot new diseases as quickly as they emerge. Called InSTEDD, the system has grown into a network of 100 digital detection partners, which provide tools that help the UN, WHO and CDC track potential pandemics.
Shortly after he won the TED Prize, Google executives asked Brilliant to run their new philanthropic arm, Google.org. So, between consulting on the WHO's polio eradication project and designing a disease-surveillance network, he harnessed Google's brains and billions in a mix of for-profit and nonprofit ventures tackling the global problems of disease, poverty and climate change. Today, Brilliant is Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, where he heads a team whose mission is to confront global threats imperiling humanity: pandemics, climate change, water security, nuclear proliferation and Middle East conflict.
Larry Brilliant | Speaker | TED.com