TED2013
Erik Brynjolfsson: The key to growth? Race with the machines
Celesi i rritjes? Te bejme gare se bashku me makinat.
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Ndersa makinat marrin persiper me shume pune, shume njerez e gjejne veten pa pune ose me me nje te ardhme pa rritje rroge. A eshte ky fundi i rritjes? Jo, thote Erik Brynjolfsson-- kjo eshte thjesht dhimbja e rritjes se nje ekonomie radikalisht te riorganizuar. Nje shpjegim se pse inovacionet e medha ecin perpara nesh.... nese i mendojme kompjuterat si shoke te skuadres. Mos lini pa pare pikepamjen e kundert nga Robert Gordon.
Erik Brynjolfsson - Innovation researcher
Erik Brynjolfsson examines the effects of information technologies on business strategy, productivity and employment. Full bio
Erik Brynjolfsson examines the effects of information technologies on business strategy, productivity and employment. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Growth is not dead.
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Rritja nuk ka vdekur
00:14
(Applause)
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(duartrokitje)
00:16
Let's start the story 120 years ago,
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Le ta fillojme historine 120 vjet me pare,
00:20
when American factories began to electrify their operations,
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kur fabrikat amerikane filluan te punojne me korrent
00:23
igniting the Second Industrial Revolution.
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duke filluar keshtu Revolucionin e Dyte Industrial.
00:27
The amazing thing is
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Gjeja e cuditeshme eshte
00:28
that productivity did not increase in those factories
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qe produktiviteti ne keto fabrika nuk u rrit
00:31
for 30 years. Thirty years.
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per 30 vjet. Tridhjete vjet.
00:34
That's long enough for a generation of managers to retire.
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Eshte kohe e mjaftueshme per te nxjerre ne pension nje gjenerate manaxheresh.
00:37
You see, the first wave of managers
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Vala e pare e manaxhereve
00:40
simply replaced their steam engines with electric motors,
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thjesht zevendesoi motorat me avull me ata elektrike,
00:43
but they didn't redesign the factories to take advantage
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por ata nuk i ridizenjuan fabrikat qe te perfitonin
00:46
of electricity's flexibility.
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nga fleksibiliteti i elektricitetit.
00:48
It fell to the next generation to invent new work processes,
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Iu desh gjenerates se mevoneshme te shpikte procese te reja pune,
00:52
and then productivity soared,
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dhe keshtu ne keto fabrika prodhimi u rrit,
00:55
often doubling or even tripling in those factories.
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e shpesh u dyfishua dhe trefishua.
00:59
Electricity is an example of a general purpose technology,
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Elektriciteti eshte nje shembull i teknologjise me perdorim te pergjitheshem,
01:03
like the steam engine before it.
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sic ishte motori me avull para tij.
01:06
General purpose technologies drive most economic growth,
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Teknologjite me perdorim te pergjithshem shkaktojne rritjen me te madhe ekonomike,
01:09
because they unleash cascades of complementary innovations,
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sepse ato clirojne ujevara shpikjesh qe kane te bejne me te,
01:13
like lightbulbs and, yes, factory redesign.
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sic jane llampat elektrike dhe, po, rindertimi i fabrikave.
01:16
Is there a general purpose technology of our era?
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A ka teknologji me perdorim te pergjithshem ne kohen tone?
01:20
Sure. It's the computer.
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Sigurisht. Eshte kompjuteri.
01:22
But technology alone is not enough.
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Por vetem teknologjia nuk mjafton.
01:25
Technology is not destiny.
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Teknologjia nuk eshte e ardhmja.
01:28
We shape our destiny,
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Ne i japim forme te ardhmes tone,
01:29
and just as the earlier generations of managers
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dhe ashtu si gjeneratat e mepareshme te manaxhereve
01:32
needed to redesign their factories,
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duhet t'i ridizenjonin fabrikat e tyre,
01:34
we're going to need to reinvent our organizations
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ne do te na duhet te rishpikim organizatat tona
01:36
and even our whole economic system.
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dhe madje gjithe sistemin tone ekonomik.
01:39
We're not doing as well at that job as we should be.
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Ne nuk po e bejme kete pune aq mire sa duhet.
01:42
As we'll see in a moment,
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Dhe pas pak do te shikojme ,
01:44
productivity is actually doing all right,
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prodhimi ne fakt nuk eshte dhe aq keq,
01:46
but it has become decoupled from jobs,
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por eshte shkeputur prej punes,
01:50
and the income of the typical worker is stagnating.
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dhe te ardhurat e nje punetori mesatar kane mbetur ne vend.
01:55
These troubles are sometimes misdiagnosed
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Keto probleme nganjehere diagnostikohen gabimisht
01:57
as the end of innovation,
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si fundi i inovacionit,
02:01
but they are actually the growing pains
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por ato aktualisht jane dhimbjet e rritjes
02:03
of what Andrew McAfee and I call the new machine age.
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se asaj qe une dhe Andrew McAfee e quajme periudha e re e makines.
02:09
Let's look at some data.
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Le te shikojme disa te dhena.
02:11
So here's GDP per person in America.
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Ja ku eshte GDP per person ne Amerike.
02:13
There's some bumps along the way, but the big story
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Ka disa luhatje gjate rruges, por perfundimisht
02:16
is you could practically fit a ruler to it.
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ju mund te vini nje vizore paralel me te.
02:19
This is a log scale, so what looks like steady growth
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Ky eshte nje diagram logaritmik, keshtu qe cka duket si rritje e vazhdueshme
02:22
is actually an acceleration in real terms.
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eshte ne fakt nje pershpejtim ne terma reale.
02:25
And here's productivity.
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Dhe ja ku eshte prodhimi.
02:27
You can see a little bit of a slowdown there in the mid-'70s,
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Ju mund te shikoni nje ngadalesim ne mesin e viteve 70-te,
02:30
but it matches up pretty well with the Second Industrial Revolution,
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por ky perkon me Revolucionin e Dyte Industrial,
02:34
when factories were learning how to electrify their operations.
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kur fabrikat po mesonin si te elektrifikonin proceset e tyre.
02:36
After a lag, productivity accelerated again.
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Pas kesaj, prodhimi u rrit perseri.
02:41
So maybe "history doesn't repeat itself,
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Atehere ndoshta "historia nuk perseritet,
02:43
but sometimes it rhymes."
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por nganjehere ben rime".
02:46
Today, productivity is at an all-time high,
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Ne kohet tona, prodhimi eshte me i larte se asnjehere,
02:49
and despite the Great Recession,
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dhe me gjithe Recesionin e Madh,
02:51
it grew faster in the 2000s than it did in the 1990s,
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ai u rrit me shpejt ne vitet 2000 se sa ne vitet 1990,
02:55
the roaring 1990s, and that was faster than the '70s or '80s.
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vitet e arte 1990, dhe ky ishte me i shpejte se ne vitet 70-te apo 80-te.
02:59
It's growing faster than it did during the Second Industrial Revolution.
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Po rritet me shpejt se gjate Revolucionit te dyte Industrial.
03:03
And that's just the United States.
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Dhe po flasim vetem per Shtetet e Bashkuara.
03:05
The global news is even better.
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Te dhenat globale jane edhe me te mira.
03:08
Worldwide incomes have grown at a faster rate
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Ne mbare boten te ardhurat jane rritur me ritme me te shpejta
03:10
in the past decade than ever in history.
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ne dekaden e kaluar sesa ne gjithe historine.
03:13
If anything, all these numbers actually understate our progress,
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Mbi te gjtiha, keta numra aktualisht e minimizojne progresin tone,
03:18
because the new machine age
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sepse periudha e re e makines
03:20
is more about knowledge creation
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ka me shume te beje me krijim te njohurive
03:21
than just physical production.
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sesa thjesht prodhim fizik.
03:24
It's mind not matter, brain not brawn,
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Eshte mendja jo lenda, truri jo ushqimi,
03:27
ideas not things.
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idete dhe jo sendet.
03:29
That creates a problem for standard metrics,
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Kjo krijon problem per metriken standarte,
03:31
because we're getting more and more stuff for free,
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sepse po perfitojme gjithnje e me teper gjera pa para
03:35
like Wikipedia, Google, Skype,
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sic psh: Wikipedia, Google, Skype,
03:37
and if they post it on the web, even this TED Talk.
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dhe nese postohet ne web, edhe kete fjalim te TED.
03:41
Now getting stuff for free is a good thing, right?
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Epo te marresh gjera pa para eshte gje e mire apo jo?
03:44
Sure, of course it is.
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Sigurisht qe eshte.
03:46
But that's not how economists measure GDP.
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Por ekonomistet nuk e masin keshtu GDP.
03:49
Zero price means zero weight in the GDP statistics.
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Cmimi zero do te thote qe dhe pesha eshte zero ne statistikat e GDP.
03:55
According to the numbers, the music industry
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Sipas numrave, industria e muzikes
03:57
is half the size that it was 10 years ago,
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eshte pergjysmuar ne krahasim me 10 vjet me pare,
04:00
but I'm listening to more and better music than ever.
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por une po degjoj me shume muzike dhe me te mire se me pare.
04:04
You know, I bet you are too.
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Dhe ve bast qe keshtu po ndodh dhe per ju.
04:06
In total, my research estimates
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Studimi im parashikon
04:09
that the GDP numbers miss over 300 billion dollars per year
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qe ne te dhenat e GDP nuk perfshihen mbi 300 miliard dollare ne vit qe vijne
04:13
in free goods and services on the Internet.
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nga mallrat pa pagese dhe sherbimet ne Internet.
04:17
Now let's look to the future.
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Tani le t'i hedhim nje sy te ardhmes.
04:19
There are some super smart people
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Ka disa njerez shume te zgjuar
04:21
who are arguing that we've reached the end of growth,
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te cilet argumentojne qe ne kemi arritur fundin e rritjes,
04:26
but to understand the future of growth,
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por per te kuptuar te ardhmen e rritjes,
04:29
we need to make predictions
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ne duhet te bejme parashikime
04:32
about the underlying drivers of growth.
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mbi faktoret e padukshem te rritjes.
04:35
I'm optimistic, because the new machine age
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Une jam optimist, sepse periudha e re e makines
04:39
is digital, exponential and combinatorial.
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eshte dixhitale, eksponenciale dhe e kombinueshme.
04:44
When goods are digital, they can be replicated
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Kur mallrat jane dixhitale, ato mund te shumefishohen
04:47
with perfect quality at nearly zero cost,
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me cilesi perfekte dhe me kosto pothuajse zero,
04:51
and they can be delivered almost instantaneously.
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dhe ato mund te perftohen pothujase menjehere.
04:55
Welcome to the economics of abundance.
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Mireseerdhet ne ekonomine e bollekut.
04:58
But there's a subtler benefit to the digitization of the world.
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Por ka nje benefit me te komplikuar ne dixhitalizimin e botes.
05:02
Measurement is the lifeblood of science and progress.
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Matja eshte arteria kryesore e shkences dhe progresit.
05:06
In the age of big data,
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Ne periudhen e te dhenave te medha,
05:08
we can measure the world in ways we never could before.
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ne mund ta matim boten me menyra qe me pare ishte e pamundur.
05:13
Secondly, the new machine age is exponential.
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Se dyti, periudha e makines se re eshte eksponenciale.
05:17
Computers get better faster than anything else ever.
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Kompjuterat permiresohen me shpejt se cdo gje tjeter.
05:23
A child's Playstation today is more powerful
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Ne ditet tona nje Playstation eshte me i fuqishem
05:26
than a military supercomputer from 1996.
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se sa nje super kompjuter ushtarak i vitit 1996.
05:30
But our brains are wired for a linear world.
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Por truri yne eshte i ndertuar te funksionoje ne nje bote lineare.
05:33
As a result, exponential trends take us by surprise.
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Si rezultat, trendet eksponenciale na kapin ne befasi.
05:37
I used to teach my students that there are some things,
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Une u mesoja studenteve te mi se ka disa gjera te cilat
05:40
you know, computers just aren't good at,
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kompjuterat nuk i bejne mire,
05:42
like driving a car through traffic.
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si psh t'i japesh makines ne trafik.
05:44
(Laughter)
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(te qeshura)
05:46
That's right, here's Andy and me grinning like madmen
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Po vertete, ja ku jemi une dhe Andy duke buzeqeshur si te cmendur
05:50
because we just rode down Route 101
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sepse ne sapo erdhem nga Route 101
05:52
in, yes, a driverless car.
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ne nje makine pa shofer, po po.
05:56
Thirdly, the new machine age is combinatorial.
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Se treti, periudha e re e makines eshte e kombinueshme.
05:58
The stagnationist view is that ideas get used up,
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Sipas pikepamjes stanjacioniste, idete harxhohen,
06:02
like low-hanging fruit,
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si frutat ne deget e poshtme,
06:04
but the reality is that each innovation
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por ne realitet cdo inovacion
06:07
creates building blocks for even more innovations.
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krijon bazen per edhe me shume inovacione.
06:11
Here's an example. In just a matter of a few weeks,
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Ja nje shembull. Ne pak jave,
06:14
an undergraduate student of mine
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nje student i imi i universitetit
06:16
built an app that ultimately reached 1.3 million users.
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ndertoi nje Aplikim qe tani ka 1.3 milion perdorues.
06:20
He was able to do that so easily
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Ai ishte ne gjendje ta bente kete kaq kollaj
06:22
because he built it on top of Facebook,
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sepse e ndertoi mbi Facebook,
06:24
and Facebook was built on top of the web,
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dhe Facebook eshte ndertuar mbi web-in,
06:26
and that was built on top of the Internet,
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i cili eshte ndertuar mbi Internet-in,
06:27
and so on and so forth.
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dhe keshtu me radhe.
06:30
Now individually, digital, exponential and combinatorial
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Tani individualisht, dixhitali, eksponenciali dhe kombinueshmeria
06:35
would each be game-changers.
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do te ishin lojtare me vete.
06:37
Put them together, and we're seeing a wave
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Me bashkimin e tyre ne po shohim nje vale
06:39
of astonishing breakthroughs,
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zbulimesh te cuditshme,
06:41
like robots that do factory work or run as fast as a cheetah
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si robotet qe bejne pune ne fabrika ose vrapojne aq shpejt sa edhe nje cita
06:44
or leap tall buildings in a single bound.
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ose kercejne nga ndertesa te larta me nje hedhje.
06:46
You know, robots are even revolutionizing
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Madje robotet po revolucionarizojne edhe
06:49
cat transportation.
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transportin e maceve.
06:50
(Laughter)
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(te qeshura)
06:53
But perhaps the most important invention,
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Por ndoshta inovacioni me i rendesishem,
06:55
the most important invention is machine learning.
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inovacioni me i rendesishem eshte te mesuarit e makines.
07:00
Consider one project: IBM's Watson.
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Kini parasysh nje projekt: Watson i IBM-se.
07:04
These little dots here,
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Keto pikat e vogla ketu,
07:05
those are all the champions on the quiz show "Jeopardy."
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jane te gjithe kampionet e shfaqjes televizive "Jeopardy".
07:10
At first, Watson wasn't very good,
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Ne fillim, Watson nuk ishte shume i mire,
07:13
but it improved at a rate faster than any human could,
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por ai u permiresua me shpejt sec mund te permiresohet nje njeri,
07:18
and shortly after Dave Ferrucci showed this chart
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dhe pak pasi Dave Ferrucci ia tregoi kete tabele
07:21
to my class at MIT,
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klases time tek MIT,
07:23
Watson beat the world "Jeopardy" champion.
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Watson e mundi kampionin e botes ne "Jeopardy".
07:26
At age seven, Watson is still kind of in its childhood.
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Ne moshen 7 vjec, Watson eshte akoma ne femijerine e tij.
07:30
Recently, its teachers let it surf the Internet unsupervised.
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Se fundmi, mesuesit e tij e lane te punonte ne Internet pa supervizion.
07:36
The next day, it started answering questions with profanities.
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Diten tjeter, ai filloi t'u pergjigjej pyetjeve me fjale te pasjellshme.
07:42
Damn. (Laughter)
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Dreqi. (te qeshura)
07:44
But you know, Watson is growing up fast.
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Por Watson po rritet shpejt.
07:46
It's being tested for jobs in call centers, and it's getting them.
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Po testohet per te punuar ne call centers dhe po pranohet.
07:50
It's applying for legal, banking and medical jobs,
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Po aplikon per pune qe kane te bejne me ligjin, sistemin bankar dhe shendetesine
07:54
and getting some of them.
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dhe po pranohet ne disa prej tyre.
07:56
Isn't it ironic that at the very moment
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Nuk eshte ironike qe tamam ne momentin
07:58
we are building intelligent machines,
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kur ne po ndertojme makina inteligjente,
08:00
perhaps the most important invention in human history,
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ndoshta inovacioni me i rendesishem ne historine e njerezimit,
08:04
some people are arguing that innovation is stagnating?
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disa njerez thone qe inovacioni ka mbetur ne vend?
08:08
Like the first two industrial revolutions,
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Ashtu si edhe dy revolucionet industriale,
08:10
the full implications of the new machine age
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implikimet e plota te periudhes se re te makines
08:13
are going to take at least a century to fully play out,
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do ta kene impaktin e tyre pas nje shekulli,
08:16
but they are staggering.
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por ato po lekunden.
08:19
So does that mean we have nothing to worry about?
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A do te thote kjo qe ne nuk duhet te shqetesohemi per asgje?
08:22
No. Technology is not destiny.
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Jo. Teknologjia nuk eshte e ardhmja.
08:26
Productivity is at an all time high,
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Prodhimi eshte ne shkallen me te larte te te gjtiha koherave,
08:28
but fewer people now have jobs.
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por me pak njerez jane te punesuar.
08:31
We have created more wealth in the past decade than ever,
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Ne kemi krijuar me shume se kurre pasuri ne dekaden e kaluar,
08:35
but for a majority of Americans, their income has fallen.
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por per shumicen e Amerikaneve, rroga eshte ulur.
08:38
This is the great decoupling
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Kjo eshte shkeputja e madhe
08:41
of productivity from employment,
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e prodhimit nga punesimi,
08:44
of wealth from work.
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e pasurise nga puna.
08:47
You know, it's not surprising that millions of people
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E dini qe nuk eshte cudi qe miliona njerez
08:49
have become disillusioned by the great decoupling,
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jane zhgenjyer nga shkeputja e madhe,
08:52
but like too many others,
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por si shume te tjere,
08:54
they misunderstand its basic causes.
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ata i keqkuptojne shkaqet baze te saj.
08:57
Technology is racing ahead,
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Teknologjia po ecen perpara,
09:00
but it's leaving more and more people behind.
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por po le shume e shume njerez prapa.
09:03
Today, we can take a routine job,
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Ne ditet e sotme, ne mund te marrim nje pune rutine,
09:07
codify it in a set of machine-readable instructions,
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ta kodifikojme ne nje grup instruksionesh qe mund te lexohen nga makina,
09:10
and then replicate it a million times.
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dhe ta shumefishojme nje milion here.
09:12
You know, I recently overheard a conversation
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Kohet e fundit degjova nja bisede
09:15
that epitomizes these new economics.
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qe i epitomizon keto koncepte te reja ekonomike.
09:17
This guy says, "Nah, I don't use H&R Block anymore.
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Njeri thote: Jo, une nuk shkoj me tek H&R Block.
09:21
TurboTax does everything that my tax preparer did,
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TurboTax ben cdo gje qe bente pergatitesi im i taksave,
09:23
but it's faster, cheaper and more accurate."
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por eshte me e shpejte, me e lire dhe me e sakte".
09:28
How can a skilled worker
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A mund te krahasohet nje punonjes i specializuar
09:30
compete with a $39 piece of software?
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me nje software qe kushton $39?
09:33
She can't.
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Nuk mundet.
09:35
Today, millions of Americans do have faster,
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Sot, miliona Amerikane bejne
09:37
cheaper, more accurate tax preparation,
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pergatitje taksash me te lire, me te shpejte dhe me te sakte,
09:40
and the founders of Intuit
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dhe themeluesit e Intuit
09:41
have done very well for themselves.
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ja kane dale mbane shume mire per veten e tyre.
09:44
But 17 percent of tax preparers no longer have jobs.
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Por 17 per qind e pergatitesve te taksave jane pa pune.
09:48
That is a microcosm of what's happening,
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Kjo eshte nje mikrobote e asaj qe po ndodh,
09:50
not just in software and services, but in media and music,
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jo vetem ne software dhe sherbime, por edhe ne media dhe muzike,
09:55
in finance and manufacturing, in retailing and trade --
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finance dhe prodhim, dyqane dhe tregeti,
09:59
in short, in every industry.
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shkurt ne cdo industri.
10:02
People are racing against the machine,
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Njerezit po bejne gare me makinen,
10:05
and many of them are losing that race.
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dhe shume prej tyre po e humbasin kete gare.
10:09
What can we do to create shared prosperity?
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Cfare mund te bejme qe ta ndajme prosperitetin?
10:12
The answer is not to try to slow down technology.
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Pergjigja ime eshte jo te perpiqemi te ngadalesojme teknologjine.
10:15
Instead of racing against the machine,
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Ne vend qe te bejme gare kunder makines,
10:18
we need to learn to race with the machine.
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ne duhet te mesojme te bejme gare me makinen.
10:22
That is our grand challenge.
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Kjo eshte sfida jone e madhe.
10:25
The new machine age
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Periudha e re e makines
10:27
can be dated to a day 15 years ago
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filloi nje dite rreth 15 vjet me pare
10:30
when Garry Kasparov, the world chess champion,
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kur Gary Kasparov, kampioni boteror i shahut,
10:33
played Deep Blue, a supercomputer.
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luajti me Deep Blue, nje super kompjuter.
10:37
The machine won that day,
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Makina fitoi ate dite,
10:39
and today, a chess program running on a cell phone
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dhe sot, programi i shahut ne celular
10:42
can beat a human grandmaster.
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e mund nje njeri qe eshte mjeshter.
10:44
It got so bad that, when he was asked
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Vajti aq keq sa kur e pyeten
10:48
what strategy he would use against a computer,
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cfare strategjie do te perdorte kundra nje kompiuteri,
10:50
Jan Donner, the Dutch grandmaster, replied,
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Jan Donner, Mjeshtri i madh Hollandez, u pergjigj,
10:54
"I'd bring a hammer."
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"Do te sillja nje cekic"
10:56
(Laughter)
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(te qeshura)
11:00
But today a computer is no longer the world chess champion.
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Por sot nje kompiuter nuk eshte me kampioni boteror i shahut.
11:04
Neither is a human,
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Nuk eshte as njeriu,
11:07
because Kasparov organized a freestyle tournament
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sepse Kasparovi organizoi nje tournament me stil te lire
11:10
where teams of humans and computers
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ku skuadra me njerez dhe kompiutera
11:12
could work together,
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mund te punonin se bashku,
11:14
and the winning team had no grandmaster,
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dhe skuadra fituese nuk kishte as mjeshter te madh
11:17
and it had no supercomputer.
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as superkompjuter.
11:20
What they had was better teamwork,
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Ata bene nje pune te mire ne skuader,
11:24
and they showed that a team of humans and computers,
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dhe treguan se nje skuader njerezish dhe kompjuterash,
11:29
working together, could beat any computer
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duke punuar se bashku, mund ta mundin cdo kompjuter
11:32
or any human working alone.
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ose cdo njeri qe punon vetem.
11:36
Racing with the machine
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Te besh gare bashke me makinen
11:37
beats racing against the machine.
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eshte me mire se te besh gare kunder makines.
11:40
Technology is not destiny.
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Teknologjia nuk eshte e ardhmja.
11:42
We shape our destiny.
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Ne i japim forme te ardhmes tone.
11:44
Thank you.
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Faleminderit.
11:45
(Applause)
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(Duartrokitje)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Erik Brynjolfsson - Innovation researcherErik Brynjolfsson examines the effects of information technologies on business strategy, productivity and employment.
Why you should listen
The director of the MIT Center for Digital Business and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Erik Brynjolfsson asks how IT affects organizations, markets and the economy. His recent work studies data-driven decision-making, management practices that drive productivity, the pricing implications of Internet commerce and the role of intangible assets.
Brynjolfsson was among the first researchers to measure the productivity contributions of information and community technology (ICT) and the complementary role of organizational capital and other intangibles. His research also provided the first quantification of the value of online product variety, often known as the “Long Tail,” and developed pricing and bundling models for information goods.
His books include Wired for Innovation: How IT Is Reshaping the Economy and Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy (with Andrew McAfee); and the recent article "Big Data: The Management Revolution" (with Andrew McAfee).
Erik Brynjolfsson | Speaker | TED.com