TEDSummit
Rachel Botsman: We've stopped trusting institutions and started trusting strangers
雷切尔·波特曼: 从信任组织机构转向信任陌生人
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雷切尔·波特曼说在信任的领域里正在发生着翻天覆地的变化。过去我们总是愿意去相信一些组织机构，比如说政府或者是银行。而今天，通过像“区块链”这样的科技产品，我们开始相信陌生人，或者将我们的信任投放到像“空中食宿网”或者“优步”这样的电子平台上。如果我们利用的得当，这种新领域的信任将会带给我们一个更透明，更具兼容性且更值得信任的社会。那么，你究竟相信谁呢？
Rachel Botsman - Trust researcher
Rachel Botsman is a recognized expert on how collaboration and trust enabled by digital technologies will change the way we live, work, bank and consume. Full bio
Rachel Botsman is a recognized expert on how collaboration and trust enabled by digital technologies will change the way we live, work, bank and consume. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Let's talk about trust.
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我们来一起讨论讨论
信任这个问题。
信任这个问题。
00:16
We all know trust is fundamental,
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我们都知道信任
是人与人交往的基础，
是人与人交往的基础，
00:19
but when it comes to trusting people,
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当我们开始信任
一个人的时候
一个人的时候
00:22
something profound is happening.
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一些巨大的改变随之发生
00:25
Please raise your hand
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在“空中食宿网“
（旅行短租网站）中
（旅行短租网站）中
00:27
if you have ever been
a host or a guest on Airbnb.
a host or a guest on Airbnb.
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当过房东或者
住客的请举手。
住客的请举手。
00:32
Wow. That's a lot of you.
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哇！人数真不少。
00:35
Who owns Bitcoin?
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那么谁有”比特币“
（一种电子货币）呢？
（一种电子货币）呢？
00:38
Still a lot of you. OK.
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仍有很多人啊。
00:39
And please raise your hand
if you've ever used Tinder
if you've ever used Tinder
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那么在“火线”（交友网站）
上找过男女朋友的，
上找过男女朋友的，
00:42
to help you find a mate.
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请举手。
00:44
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:46
This one's really hard to count
because you're kind of going like this.
because you're kind of going like this.
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这次真的很难计算，
因为很多人都不好意思举手。
因为很多人都不好意思举手。
00:49
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:51
These are all examples of how technology
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以上的这些都可以很好的证明，
科技是如何创造一种新机制的
00:54
is creating new mechanisms
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00:56
that are enabling us to trust
unknown people, companies and ideas.
unknown people, companies and ideas.
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使我们相信陌生人、
陌生的公司以及陌生的点子，
陌生的公司以及陌生的点子，
01:02
And yet at the same time,
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但与此同时，
01:04
trust in institutions --
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对于一些组织机构，
01:05
banks, governments and even churches --
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比如说，银行，甚至教堂，
01:08
is collapsing.
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我们的信任正在崩塌。
01:10
So what's happening here,
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这究竟是怎么回事呢？
01:12
and who do you trust?
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你究竟信任谁呢？
01:14
Let's start in France with a platform --
with a company, I should say --
with a company, I should say --
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我们先来看看
法国的一个网络平台，
法国的一个网络平台，
确切的说是一家法国公司。
01:18
with a rather funny-sounding name,
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它有着一个听起来
很有意思的名字：
很有意思的名字：
01:20
BlaBlaCar.
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“巴拉巴拉拼车”
01:22
It's a platform that matches
drivers and passengers
drivers and passengers
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这个平台可以将
想要进行长途拼车的
想要进行长途拼车的
01:25
who want to share
long-distance journeys together.
long-distance journeys together.
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司机和旅客进行配对。
01:29
The average ride taken is 320 kilometers.
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每次拼车的平均旅程
距离为320千米。
距离为320千米。
01:34
So it's a good idea
to choose your fellow travelers wisely.
to choose your fellow travelers wisely.
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所以说通过这个平台
选择你的驴友是非常明智的。
选择你的驴友是非常明智的。
01:39
Social profiles and reviews
help people make a choice.
help people make a choice.
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人们可以通过社交
网络资料和评论进行选择，
网络资料和评论进行选择，
01:43
You can see if someone's a smoker,
you can see what kind of music they like,
you can see what kind of music they like,
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通过这些，你可以
知道他是否吸烟，
知道他是否吸烟，
他喜欢什么样的音乐，
01:48
you can see if they're going to bring
their dog along for the ride.
their dog along for the ride.
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你也可以知道他们是否
会带着宠物狗一起旅行。
会带着宠物狗一起旅行。
01:52
But it turns out
that the key social identifier
that the key social identifier
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但研究结果表示，
人们最关心的问题是：
人们最关心的问题是：
01:56
is how much you're going
to talk in the car.
to talk in the car.
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你能在车里说多少话。
01:58
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:00
Bla, not a lot,
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“巴拉”的意思是没说几句话
02:02
bla bla, you want a nice bit of chitchat,
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“巴拉巴拉”的意思是你们
可能会有一个很好的交谈。
可能会有一个很好的交谈。
02:04
and bla bla bla, you're not going
to stop talking the entire way
to stop talking the entire way
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而“巴拉巴拉巴拉”就代表
从伦敦直到巴黎的一路上，
从伦敦直到巴黎的一路上，
02:08
from London to Paris.
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你都在说个不停。
02:09
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:12
It's remarkable, right,
that this idea works at all,
that this idea works at all,
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这个点子真的很不错，
因而它大获成功。
因而它大获成功。
02:15
because it's counter to the lesson
most of us were taught as a child:
most of us were taught as a child:
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而且它与我们小时候父母
警告我们的事情正好相反：
警告我们的事情正好相反：
02:18
never get in a car with a stranger.
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永远不要和陌生人
搭同一辆车。
搭同一辆车。
02:21
And yet, BlaBlaCar transports
more than four million people
more than four million people
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然而，“巴拉巴拉拼车”
在每个月里
在每个月里
会承载超过400万的乘客
02:26
every single month.
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02:28
To put that in context,
that's more passengers
that's more passengers
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如果进行比较的话，
这些乘客数
这些乘客数
02:31
than the Eurostar
or JetBlue airlines carry.
or JetBlue airlines carry.
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要超过“欧洲之星”或者
“捷蓝航空”的客流量。
“捷蓝航空”的客流量。
02:35
BlaBlaCar is a beautiful illustration
of how technology is enabling
of how technology is enabling
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“巴拉巴拉拼车”很好的
证明了科技如何使得
证明了科技如何使得
02:39
millions of people across the world
to take a trust leap.
to take a trust leap.
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上百万来自世界各地的人
实现一种信任上的跨越。
实现一种信任上的跨越。
02:43
A trust leap happens when we take the risk
to do something new or different
to do something new or different
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当我们冒险去尝试一些
新的或与众不同的事物时，
新的或与众不同的事物时，
02:49
to the way that we've always done it.
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我们说这是一种信任上的跨越。
02:52
Let's try to visualize this together.
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让我们一起来设想下：
02:55
OK. I want you to close your eyes.
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现在，我希望大家
都把眼睛闭上，
都把眼睛闭上，
02:59
There is a man staring at me
with his eyes wide open.
with his eyes wide open.
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那有一位先生
瞪大了眼睛看着我。
瞪大了眼睛看着我。
03:02
I'm on this big red circle. I can see.
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我站在这个巨大的红色圆圈中，
我能清楚的看见你，
我能清楚的看见你，
03:04
So close your eyes.
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所以，请闭上眼睛。
03:06
(Laughter) (Applause)
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（笑声）（掌声）
03:09
I'll do it with you.
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我来教大家接下来怎么做。
03:10
And I want you to imagine
there exists a gap
there exists a gap
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我希望大家想象下，
你与一个陌生事物之间，
你与一个陌生事物之间，
03:13
between you and something unknown.
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存在着一个空间上的间隔。
03:16
That unknown can be
someone you've just met.
someone you've just met.
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这个陌生的事物可能
是你刚刚认识的某个人，
是你刚刚认识的某个人，
03:19
It can be a place you've never been to.
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也可能是你一个
你从来没去过的地方，
你从来没去过的地方，
03:21
It can be something
you've never tried before.
you've never tried before.
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也可能是你从来
没尝试过的事情。
没尝试过的事情。
03:25
You got it?
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大家想好了吗？
03:26
OK. You can open your eyes now.
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现在，大家可以睁开眼睛了。
03:28
For you to leap from a place of certainty,
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对于你来说，如果
你想跨越这个间隙，
你想跨越这个间隙，
03:31
to take a chance on that someone
or something unknown,
or something unknown,
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想要尝试到那个地方，
或者了解那个人，
或者了解那个人，
03:35
you need a force to pull you over the gap,
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你需要一个动力去推你，
03:38
and that remarkable force is trust.
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而这个了不起
的动力就是信任。
的动力就是信任。
03:42
Trust is an elusive concept,
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信任是一个捉摸不透的概念，
03:46
and yet we depend on it
for our lives to function.
for our lives to function.
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但是我们却需要它
成为我们生存的基石。
成为我们生存的基石。
03:49
I trust my children
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我相信我的孩子，
03:51
when they say they're going
to turn the lights out at night.
to turn the lights out at night.
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相信他们会按照他们自己
说的那样，在晚上准时关灯。
说的那样，在晚上准时关灯。
03:54
I trusted the pilot
who flew me here to keep me safe.
who flew me here to keep me safe.
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我相信飞行员，相信他们
会在飞行中保障我的安全。
会在飞行中保障我的安全。
03:58
It's a word we use a lot,
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信任是我们频繁使用的一个词，
04:00
without always thinking
about what it really means
about what it really means
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但我们却不会考虑
在不同的生活环境中，
在不同的生活环境中，
它究竟是什么意思，
起着怎样的作用。
起着怎样的作用。
04:03
and how it works in different
contexts of our lives.
contexts of our lives.
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04:06
There are, in fact,
hundreds of definitions of trust,
hundreds of definitions of trust,
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实际上，对于信任的
定义有成百上千种，
定义有成百上千种，
04:10
and most can be reduced
to some kind of risk assessment
to some kind of risk assessment
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这些定义大多数可以
被简化成一种风险评估，
被简化成一种风险评估，
04:14
of how likely it is
that things will go right.
that things will go right.
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主要的评估内容是这件事
有多大的可能性是正确的。
有多大的可能性是正确的。
04:18
But I don't like this definition of trust,
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但我并不喜欢这种
对信任的定义。
对信任的定义。
04:20
because it makes trust
sound rational and predictable,
sound rational and predictable,
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因为它们使得信任看起来
是理性的且可预测的。
是理性的且可预测的。
04:25
and it doesn't really get
to the human essence
to the human essence
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而且这些定义并没有真正
抓住究竟是人的哪些本性
抓住究竟是人的哪些本性
04:27
of what it enables us to do
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促使我们去前进，
04:29
and how it empowers us
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是怎么促使我们
04:31
to connect with other people.
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与他人建立联系？
04:33
So I define trust a little differently.
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所以，我对信任的
定义与它们有些不同，
定义与它们有些不同，
04:35
I define trust as a confident
relationship to the unknown.
relationship to the unknown.
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我认为信任是对
未知关系的一种自信。
未知关系的一种自信。
04:41
Now, when you view trust
through this lens,
through this lens,
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现在，如果大家以
这种角度来审视信任，
这种角度来审视信任，
04:44
it starts to explain
why it has the unique capacity
why it has the unique capacity
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你就会发现为什么
信任会有一种独特的力量，
信任会有一种独特的力量，
04:47
to enable us to cope with uncertainty,
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帮助我们克服
那种不确定的不安
那种不确定的不安
04:50
to place our faith in strangers,
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帮助我们将信任
交付到陌生人手中，
交付到陌生人手中，
04:53
to keep moving forward.
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最终帮助我们不断前进。
04:56
Human beings are remarkable
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人类是非常了不起的，
04:59
at taking trust leaps.
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我们可以因信任跨越鸿沟。
05:01
Do you remember the first time
you put your credit card details
you put your credit card details
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你还记得你第一次上网填写
05:04
into a website?
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信用卡信息的时候吗？
05:05
That's a trust leap.
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这就是信任的飞跃。
05:07
I distinctly remember telling my dad
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我始终记得
当我告诉我的父亲
当我告诉我的父亲
05:09
that I wanted to buy a navy blue
secondhand Peugeot on eBay,
secondhand Peugeot on eBay,
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我想在易趣（购物网站）上
买一辆二手的深蓝色
的标致汽车时，
的标致汽车时，
05:15
and he rightfully pointed out
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他理直气壮的指出
05:16
that the seller's name
was "Invisible Wizard"
was "Invisible Wizard"
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卖家的名字叫“隐形的巫师”，
05:19
and that this probably
was not such a good idea.
was not such a good idea.
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这个名字不好，
不能在他这里买。
不能在他这里买。
05:22
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
05:24
So my work, my research
focuses on how technology
focuses on how technology
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我的工作主要是研究科技
是如何改变社会凝聚力的，
05:27
is transforming
the social glue of society,
the social glue of society,
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05:30
trust between people,
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是如何在人们之间建立信任的。
05:31
and it's a fascinating area to study,
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这个领域真的特别吸引人，
05:34
because there's still
so much we do not know.
so much we do not know.
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因为有太多的东西
是我们不知道的。
是我们不知道的。
05:37
For instance, do men and women
trust differently in digital environments?
trust differently in digital environments?
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例如，男人和女人在网络中
的信任度是一样的吗？
的信任度是一样的吗？
05:42
Does the way we build trust
face-to-face translate online?
face-to-face translate online?
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我们在现实社会与在网络中
建立信任的方式是相同的吗？
05:47
Does trust transfer?
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信任会传递吗？
05:49
So if you trust finding a mate on Tinder,
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如果你相信在“火线”上
能找到你的另一半，
能找到你的另一半，
05:52
are you more likely
to trust finding a ride on BlaBlaCar?
to trust finding a ride on BlaBlaCar?
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那么你会不会更愿意相信
在“巴拉巴拉拼车”上
能找到合适的驴友呢？
能找到合适的驴友呢？
05:56
But from studying hundreds
of networks and marketplaces,
of networks and marketplaces,
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在研究过成百上千的
网络软件和商场模式之后，
网络软件和商场模式之后，
05:59
there is a common pattern
that people follow,
that people follow,
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我发现人们的行为
遵循一个共同的规律，
遵循一个共同的规律，
06:02
and I call it "climbing the trust stack."
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我叫它“爬上信任的阶梯”。
06:05
Let me use BlaBlaCar
as an example to bring it to life.
as an example to bring it to life.
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让我用“巴拉巴拉拼车”
为大家更直观的解释下。
为大家更直观的解释下。
06:09
On the first level,
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在这个阶梯的第一层，
06:10
you have to trust the idea.
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你需要首先相信
这个想法的可行性，
这个想法的可行性，
06:12
So you have to trust
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也就是说你要相信，
06:13
the idea of ride-sharing
is safe and worth trying.
is safe and worth trying.
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这个共同搭车的想法
是安全且值得一试的。
是安全且值得一试的。
06:17
The second level is about having
confidence in the platform,
confidence in the platform,
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阶梯的第二层是
你要对这个平台有信心，
你要对这个平台有信心，
06:22
that BlaBlaCar will help you
if something goes wrong.
if something goes wrong.
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也就是说你要
相信当问题出现时，
相信当问题出现时，
“巴拉巴拉拼车”会帮你解决。
06:26
And the third level is about
using little bits of information
using little bits of information
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第三层就是运用一些信息
06:30
to decide whether
the other person is trustworthy.
the other person is trustworthy.
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来决定究竟谁是
值得信任的驴友。
值得信任的驴友。
06:34
Now, the first time
we climb the trust stack,
we climb the trust stack,
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经历了这三层之后，
我们第一次爬上了
“信任阶梯”的顶峰。
“信任阶梯”的顶峰。
06:36
it feels weird, even risky,
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我们会感觉有些不可思议，
甚至还有些冒险，
甚至还有些冒险，
06:40
but we get to a point
where these ideas seem totally normal.
where these ideas seem totally normal.
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但是我们却发现了其实
这些想法是再正常不过的。
这些想法是再正常不过的。
06:45
Our behaviors transform,
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我们的行为在改变着，
06:47
often relatively quickly.
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而且速度相对较快。
06:49
In other words, trust enables
change and innovation.
change and innovation.
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换句话说，信任使
我们改变且不断创新。
我们改变且不断创新。
06:55
So an idea that intrigued me,
and I'd like you to consider,
and I'd like you to consider,
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因而，我有了一个想法，
我希望我们可以一起考虑，
我希望我们可以一起考虑，
06:58
is whether we can better understand
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我们是否可以
在信任的角度上，
在信任的角度上，
07:01
major ways of disruption and change
in individuals in society
in individuals in society
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更好的理解社会中
07:05
through the lens of trust.
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人们的分裂及改变？
07:07
Well, it turns out
that trust has only evolved
that trust has only evolved
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研究结果表明，
信任只参与了
信任只参与了
07:10
in three significant chapters
throughout the course of human history:
throughout the course of human history:
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人类历史进程中
的三个重要环节：
的三个重要环节：
07:15
local, institutional
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本土化，制度化
07:17
and what we're now entering, distributed.
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以及现在的分散化。
07:20
So for a long time,
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所以，很长一段时间内，
也就是直到19世纪中期
07:23
until the mid-1800s,
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07:24
trust was built
around tight-knit relationships.
around tight-knit relationships.
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信任只是建立在
亲密的关系之间的。
亲密的关系之间的。
07:28
So say I lived in a village
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举个例子，
我和前五排的观众，
我和前五排的观众，
07:30
with the first five rows of this audience,
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一起生活在一个村子里
07:32
and we all knew one another,
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我们都互相熟悉。
07:34
and say I wanted to borrow money.
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如果我想借钱，
07:37
The man who had his eyes wide open,
he might lend it to me,
he might lend it to me,
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前排这个睁大眼睛看着我
的先生可能会借给我。
的先生可能会借给我。
07:40
and if I didn't pay him back,
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但是如果我没有还钱给他，
07:42
you'd all know I was dodgy.
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村子了的所有人就
都会知道我是个骗子，
都会知道我是个骗子，
07:44
I would get a bad reputation,
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我的名声会变臭，
07:46
and you would refuse
to do business with me in the future.
to do business with me in the future.
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以后没有人会再和我做生意。
07:49
Trust was mostly local
and accountability-based.
and accountability-based.
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那时的信任完全是
建立在地区范围之内，
建立在地区范围之内，
且带有问责性的。
07:53
In the mid-19th century,
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而到了19世纪中期，
07:54
society went through
a tremendous amount of change.
a tremendous amount of change.
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我们的社会
经历了巨大的变革，
经历了巨大的变革，
07:58
People moved to fast-growing cities
such as London and San Francisco,
such as London and San Francisco,
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很多人搬到了
发展迅速的城市地区，
发展迅速的城市地区，
比如伦敦或者旧金山。
08:02
and a local banker here
was replaced by large corporations
was replaced by large corporations
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与此同时，当地的银行家
也被一些大企业而取代，
也被一些大企业而取代，
08:07
that didn't know us as individuals.
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这些大企业并不
了解我们每一个人。
了解我们每一个人。
08:10
We started to place our trust
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因此，我们开始将我们的信任
08:12
into black box systems of authority,
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放入权威机构的“黑箱系统”中
08:15
things like legal contracts
and regulation and insurance,
and regulation and insurance,
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它就像法律合同，
法律规范或者保险一样，
法律规范或者保险一样，
08:19
and less trust directly in other people.
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因而人与人之间的
直接信任就减少了很多，
直接信任就减少了很多，
08:23
Trust became institutional
and commission-based.
and commission-based.
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信任开始基于各种机构组织。
08:27
It's widely talked about how trust
in institutions and many corporate brands
in institutions and many corporate brands
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人们现在讨论最多的就是
对于各种机构组织的信任，
对于各种机构组织的信任，
08:32
has been steadily declining
and continues to do so.
and continues to do so.
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是如何持续下滑的。
08:36
I am constantly stunned
by major breaches of trust:
by major breaches of trust:
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我一直被那些失信
的丑闻所震惊着。
的丑闻所震惊着。
08:42
the News Corp phone hacking,
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比如说，新闻集团
的电话入侵事件，
的电话入侵事件，
08:44
the Volkswagen emissions scandal,
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大众的尾气排放丑闻，
08:47
the widespread abuse
in the Catholic Church,
in the Catholic Church,
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天主教会中大量的虐童事件。
08:50
the fact that only one measly banker
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实际上，在金融危机爆发以后
只有一个低等的银行家
08:54
went to jail after the great
financial crisis,
financial crisis,
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到监狱里做了替死鬼。
08:57
or more recently the Panama Papers
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还有最近爆出的“巴拿马文件”，
08:59
that revealed how the rich
can exploit offshore tax regimes.
can exploit offshore tax regimes.
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这些文件向我们暴露了，
有钱人是如何通过
离岸税收制度逃税漏税的。
离岸税收制度逃税漏税的。
09:04
And the thing that really surprises me
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真正令我吃惊的是，
09:07
is why do leaders find it so hard
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当人们间的信任崩盘时，
09:11
to apologize, I mean sincerely apologize,
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让这些人领导人
道个歉为什么这么难？
道个歉为什么这么难？
09:14
when our trust is broken?
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当然，我说的是真正的道歉
09:17
It would be easy to conclude
that institutional trust isn't working
that institutional trust isn't working
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我们对各种机构、组织
失去信任的原因很简单，
失去信任的原因很简单，
09:21
because we are fed up
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因为我们受够了那些
09:23
with the sheer audacity
of dishonest elites,
of dishonest elites,
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2896
厚颜无耻、谎话连篇
的所谓的精英们。
的所谓的精英们。
09:25
but what's happening now
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但现在所发生的
这些事，远不止
这些事，远不止
09:27
runs deeper than the rampant questioning
of the size and structure of institutions.
of the size and structure of institutions.
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对那些组织机构的规模、
结构的质疑那么简单。
结构的质疑那么简单。
09:33
We're starting to realize
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2016
因为我们开始意识到，
09:35
that institutional trust
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建立在组织机构上的信任，
09:37
wasn't designed for the digital age.
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不再适用于数字时代。
09:40
Conventions of how trust is built,
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568440
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一些常规的思维，
比如说信任在
比如说信任在
一些集团公司中、领导中，
以及整个系统之中，
以及整个系统之中，
09:44
managed, lost and repaired --
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2336
09:46
in brands, leaders and entire systems --
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是如何建立的、管理的、
失去的，最后又重建的，
失去的，最后又重建的，
09:49
is being turned upside down.
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2000
已经被完全颠覆。
09:51
Now, this is exciting,
190
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就现在来说，是件
另人兴奋的事，
另人兴奋的事，
09:53
but it's frightening,
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1536
但这也是非常恐怖的事情。
09:55
because it forces many of us
to have to rethink
to have to rethink
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因为这就要求我们重新思考，
09:58
how trust is built and destroyed
with our customers, with our employees,
with our customers, with our employees,
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信任是如何在我们
与客户之间，与雇员之间，
与客户之间，与雇员之间，
甚至与我们爱的人之间，
10:02
even our loved ones.
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建立、摧毁的。
10:05
The other day, I was talking to the CEO
of a leading international hotel brand,
of a leading international hotel brand,
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6176
有一天，我与一个来自
国际顶级酒店集团的
国际顶级酒店集团的
首席执行官聊天时，
10:12
and as is often the case,
we got onto the topic of Airbnb.
we got onto the topic of Airbnb.
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我们又不自觉的
聊到了“空中食宿网”。
聊到了“空中食宿网”。
10:15
And he admitted to me
that he was perplexed by their success.
that he was perplexed by their success.
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他说他真的不明白
这个公司是怎么成功的，
这个公司是怎么成功的，
10:20
He was perplexed at how a company
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2136
他不明白一个公司怎么可以
10:23
that depends on the willingness
of strangers to trust one another
of strangers to trust one another
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4176
依靠陌生人间的信任，
10:27
could work so well across 191 countries.
200
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将生意做得如此成功，
甚至遍布191个国家。
甚至遍布191个国家。
10:31
So I said to him
that I had a confession to make,
that I had a confession to make,
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然后我跟他说，
我要向他承认一个错误，
我要向他承认一个错误，
10:35
and he looked at me a bit strangely,
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1976
他有些莫名其妙的看着我，
10:37
and I said --
203
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1376
我说：
10:38
and I'm sure many of you
do this as well --
do this as well --
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2016
我相信很多在座
的各位也这样做过。
的各位也这样做过。
10:40
I don't always bother to hang my towels up
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2496
当我在离开酒店之前，
10:43
when I'm finished in the hotel,
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2936
我经常不把用过的毛巾挂起来，
10:46
but I would never do this
as a guest on Airbnb.
as a guest on Airbnb.
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但我不会这样对待在
“空中食宿网”订购的民宿。
“空中食宿网”订购的民宿。
10:49
And the reason why I would never do this
as a guest on Airbnb
as a guest on Airbnb
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3336
我之所在“空中食宿网”中
不会这么做，
不会这么做，
10:52
is because guests know
that they'll be rated by hosts,
that they'll be rated by hosts,
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3656
是因为住客知道房主
会对他们进行评估打分，
会对他们进行评估打分，
10:56
and that those ratings
are likely to impact their ability
are likely to impact their ability
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3736
这些评估打分很有可能会
11:00
to transact in the future.
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影响他们将来的交易，
11:02
It's a simple illustration of how
online trust will change our behaviors
online trust will change our behaviors
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4216
这就是一个非常好的例子。
它证明了网络上的信任是
如何在现实生活中
改变我们的行为的。
改变我们的行为的。
11:06
in the real world,
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1296
11:08
make us more accountable
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而且这些信任以一种
我们以前从未设想过的方式，
我们以前从未设想过的方式，
11:10
in ways we cannot yet even imagine.
215
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3440
使得我们变得更有责任感。
11:14
I am not saying we do not need hotels
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3056
当然，我也不是说
我们不再需要酒店了，
我们不再需要酒店了，
11:17
or traditional forms of authority.
217
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2336
或者说不再需要传统
的那些组织机构了。
的那些组织机构了。
11:20
But what we cannot deny
218
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2096
但是我们也不能否认，
11:22
is that the way trust
flows through society is changing,
flows through society is changing,
219
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4256
当今社会的信任
流向已经改变了。
流向已经改变了。
11:26
and it's creating this big shift
220
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这种巨大的改变，
11:29
away from the 20th century
221
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1856
是从20世纪
11:30
that was defined by institutional trust
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由组织机构定义的信任，
11:33
towards the 21st century
223
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2496
转向了21世纪
11:36
that will be fueled by distributed trust.
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更加分散的信任。
11:39
Trust is no longer top-down.
225
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4176
信任不再仅仅
是由上到下流动了，
是由上到下流动了，
11:43
It's being unbundled and inverted.
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2096
而是分散式的
甚至是反向的。
甚至是反向的。
11:45
It's no longer opaque and linear.
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2840
信任也不再是
看不见摸不着的了，
看不见摸不着的了，
也不再是直线型的了，
11:49
A new recipe for trust is emerging
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2976
一种新型的信任
正在不断兴起，
正在不断兴起，
11:52
that once again
is distributed amongst people
is distributed amongst people
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3896
这种信任再一次
的在人群中兴起
的在人群中兴起
11:56
and is accountability-based.
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2136
它以问责制为基础。
11:58
And this shift is only going to accelerate
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3416
这种改变加速了
12:01
with the emergence of the blockchain,
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区块链的出现，
12:04
the innovative ledger technology
underpinning Bitcoin.
underpinning Bitcoin.
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3640
区块链就是支持比特币
产生的分布式账本创新技术。
产生的分布式账本创新技术。
12:08
Now let's be honest,
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2936
但是诚实的讲，
12:11
getting our heads around
the way blockchain works
the way blockchain works
235
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3456
我们是很难
真正的理解究竟
真正的理解究竟
区块链是怎样工作的。
12:15
is mind-blowing.
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723240
1440
12:17
And one of the reasons why
is it involves processing
is it involves processing
237
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3256
其中的一个原因
就是人们总是，
就是人们总是，
12:21
some pretty complicated concepts
238
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2656
给一些及其复杂的概念，
12:23
with terrible names.
239
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1496
起一些特别难懂的名字，
12:25
I mean, cryptographic algorithms
and hash functions,
and hash functions,
240
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4496
比如说所谓的“密码规则系统”
以及“散列函数”，
以及“散列函数”，
12:29
and people called miners,
who verify transactions --
who verify transactions --
241
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3056
还有那些核查交易的“矿工”们。
12:32
all that was created
by this mysterious person
by this mysterious person
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这些都是由一个神秘人创造的，
12:36
or persons called Satoshi Nakamoto.
243
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2736
他的名字叫做中本聪
12:39
Now, that is a massive trust leap
that hasn't happened yet.
that hasn't happened yet.
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5656
现在对我们来说，这些
概念都是还没有发生的，
概念都是还没有发生的，
巨大的“信任跨越”，
因为我们根本不明白。
因为我们根本不明白。
12:44
(Applause)
245
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3056
（掌声）
12:47
But let's try to imagine this.
246
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但还是让我们
试着体会一下，
试着体会一下，
12:49
So "The Economist"
eloquently described the blockchain
eloquently described the blockchain
247
757400
3696
经济学家们将区块链
生动的比作为：
生动的比作为：
12:53
as the great chain
of being sure about things.
of being sure about things.
248
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3656
事物间最伟大的链接。
12:56
The easiest way I can describe it
is imagine the blocks as spreadsheets,
is imagine the blocks as spreadsheets,
249
764800
5056
而我能想到的最好方法
就是将区块链比作表格，
就是将区块链比作表格，
13:01
and they are filled with assets.
250
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2976
这个表格里面
有着丰富的数据。
有着丰富的数据。
13:04
So that could be a property title.
251
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2416
所以，我们可以将它
看做一个不动产契约，
看做一个不动产契约，
13:07
It could be a stock trade.
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2016
也可以看成一次股票交易，
13:09
It could be a creative asset,
such as the rights to a song.
such as the rights to a song.
253
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2960
也可以是一种
具有创造性的资产，
具有创造性的资产，
比如说一首歌的版权。
13:12
Every time something moves
254
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一旦人们登录的地点
13:16
from one place on the register
to somewhere else,
to somewhere else,
255
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有所改变，
13:19
that asset transfer is time-stamped
256
787840
3096
那么这些资产也是
随之实时转移的。
随之实时转移的。
13:22
and publicly recorded on the blockchain.
257
790960
3416
同时在区块链上
也有所有记录，
也有所有记录，
13:26
It's that simple. Right.
258
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1880
这样是不是就好理解些了。
13:28
So the real implication of the blockchain
259
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3096
所以说区块链的真正含义就是：
13:31
is that it removes the need
for any kind of third party,
for any kind of third party,
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4136
它为任何形式的
第三方转移他们的需求，
第三方转移他们的需求，
13:36
such as a lawyer,
261
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1336
比如说像一名律师一样，
13:37
or a trusted intermediary,
or maybe not a government intermediary
or maybe not a government intermediary
262
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3456
或者是一个可信的中介，
或者可能就是为了
不让政府做中介，
不让政府做中介，
13:40
to facilitate the exchange.
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来实现交易。
13:42
So if we go back to the trust stack,
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那么，现在我们回到
信任层级这个问题上来。
信任层级这个问题上来。
13:44
you still have to trust the idea,
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现在的情况是，
你仍需要相信这个点子，
你仍需要相信这个点子，
13:47
you have to trust the platform,
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你仍需要相信这个平台，
13:50
but you don't have to trust
the other person
the other person
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但是你不需要像以前一样，
13:53
in the traditional sense.
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相信某个特定的人了。
13:54
The implications are huge.
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这对我们的启示
是非常巨大的，
是非常巨大的，
13:57
In the same way the internet blew open
the doors to an age of information
the doors to an age of information
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同样的，互联网开启了
一个新的信息时代的大门。
一个新的信息时代的大门。
14:01
available to everyone,
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这个大门允许任何人的进入，
14:02
the blockchain will revolutionize
trust on a global scale.
trust on a global scale.
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而区块链也会在全球范围内
掀起一场信任革命。
掀起一场信任革命。
14:08
Now, I've waited to the end
intentionally to mention Uber,
intentionally to mention Uber,
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我一直在等着人们
不再提起“优步”（打车应用），
不再提起“优步”（打车应用），
14:12
because I recognize
that it is a contentious
that it is a contentious
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因为我认为
这是一个有异议，
这是一个有异议，
14:15
and widely overused example,
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且被过度使用了的例子。
14:18
but in the context of a new era of trust,
it's a great case study.
it's a great case study.
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但在我们所说的
新的信任的领域下，
新的信任的领域下，
“优步”确实是一个
很好的例子。
很好的例子。
14:21
Now, we will see cases of abuse
of distributed trust.
of distributed trust.
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现在，我们看几个
滥用分散性信任的例子。
滥用分散性信任的例子。
14:26
We've already seen this,
and it can go horribly wrong.
and it can go horribly wrong.
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我们早已看过这些例子了，
而且它们都糟糕到离谱，
而且它们都糟糕到离谱，
14:30
I am not surprised that we are seeing
protests from taxi associations
protests from taxi associations
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对于出租车协会
在全球范围内的抗议，
在全球范围内的抗议，
14:35
all around the world
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我一点也不觉得奇怪。
14:36
trying to get governments to ban Uber
based on claims that it is unsafe.
based on claims that it is unsafe.
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他们试图说服政府
相信“优步”并不安全，
相信“优步”并不安全，
因而请求取缔它。
14:42
I happened to be in London
the day that these protests took place,
the day that these protests took place,
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有一次我在伦敦刚好
遇到了抗议的队伍，
遇到了抗议的队伍，
14:46
and I happened to notice a tweet
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也正巧我看到了
一个很巧妙的“推文”。
一个很巧妙的“推文”。
14:48
from Matt Hancock, who is
a British minister for business.
a British minister for business.
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这段话那来自英国
商务大臣马特·汉考克，
商务大臣马特·汉考克，
14:52
And he wrote,
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他写到，
14:53
"Does anyone have details of this
#Uber app everyone's talking about?
#Uber app everyone's talking about?
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“谁能给我一些
关于‘优步’的信息？
关于‘优步’的信息？
为什么大家都
在讨论这个应用？
在讨论这个应用？
14:57
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:59
I'd never heard of it until today."
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直到今天之前
我都没有听说过！“
我都没有听说过！“
15:03
Now, the taxi associations,
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而现在，出租车协会
15:07
they legitimized the first layer
of the trust stack.
of the trust stack.
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合理化了信任层级中的第一层。
15:10
They legitimized the idea
that they were trying to eliminate,
that they were trying to eliminate,
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他们将他们想要避免
的事变得合理化了。
的事变得合理化了。
15:13
and sign-ups increased
by 850 percent in 24 hours.
by 850 percent in 24 hours.
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而且在24小时内”优步“
的注册人数增加了850%。
的注册人数增加了850%。
15:19
Now, this is a really strong illustration
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这个例子很好的说明了，
15:22
of how once a trust shift has happened
around a behavior or an entire sector,
around a behavior or an entire sector,
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信任是如何在行为之间
或者整个领域中转变的。
或者整个领域中转变的。
15:28
you cannot reverse the story.
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大家可以好好
想一下这个例子：
想一下这个例子：
15:31
Every day, five million people
will take a trust leap
will take a trust leap
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每天，全世界会有
500万人跨越信任鸿沟，
500万人跨越信任鸿沟，
15:35
and ride with Uber.
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乘坐”优步“，
15:36
In China, on Didi,
the ride-sharing platform,
the ride-sharing platform,
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在中国的“滴滴”，
这个打车应用每天
这个打车应用每天
15:39
11 million rides taken every day.
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载客数会达到1100万，
15:42
That's 127 rides per second,
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也就是每秒会有
127辆车载客。
127辆车载客。
15:46
showing that this is
a cross-cultural phenomenon.
a cross-cultural phenomenon.
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所以说这是一个
跨越文化的现象。
跨越文化的现象。
15:49
And the fascinating thing is
that both drivers and passengers report
that both drivers and passengers report
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而且更神奇的是
司机和乘客都说，
司机和乘客都说，
15:53
that seeing a name
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只看到一个人的名字，
15:55
and seeing someone's photo
and their rating
and their rating
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照片以及他们的评论，
15:58
makes them feel safer,
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会使他们感到更安全。
16:01
and as you may have experienced,
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也许在坐的各位都体会到，
16:02
even behave a little more nicely
in the taxi cab.
in the taxi cab.
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我们在”优步“上会比在
出租车上表现的好一些，
出租车上表现的好一些，
16:07
Uber and Didi are early
but powerful examples
but powerful examples
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虽然”优步“和”滴滴“
都已经出现很久了，
都已经出现很久了，
但是它们都有力的证明了，
16:11
of how technology
is creating trust between people
is creating trust between people
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科技是如何以一种前所未有
的方式和范围内，
的方式和范围内，
16:15
in ways and on a scale
never possible before.
never possible before.
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增加人与人之间的信任的。
16:19
Today, many of us are comfortable
getting into cars driven by strangers.
getting into cars driven by strangers.
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现在，很多人对于进入到
一个陌生人开的车里，
一个陌生人开的车里，
应该是感觉很舒服的了。
16:25
We meet up with someone
we swiped right to be matched with.
we swiped right to be matched with.
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我们会与陌生人见面，
会刷卡买东西，
会刷卡买东西，
16:29
We share our homes
with people we do not know.
with people we do not know.
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我们会与陌生人
分享我们的房子，
分享我们的房子，
16:33
This is just the beginning,
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但是，一切一切
才只是刚刚开始。
才只是刚刚开始。
16:36
because the real disruption happening
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因为真正促使改变产生的，
16:39
isn't technological.
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并不是科技，
16:41
It's the trust shift it creates,
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是信任的转变刺激了
科技的创造性。
科技的创造性。
16:43
and for my part, I want to help people
understand this new era of trust
understand this new era of trust
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站在我的角度来说，
我希望人们能够理解
信任的这个新领域，
信任的这个新领域，
16:49
so that we can get it right
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所以我们才能正确的掌握它。
16:50
and we can embrace
the opportunities to redesign systems
the opportunities to redesign systems
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因而我们也可以抓住
这个机会重塑我们的系统，
这个机会重塑我们的系统，
16:54
that are more transparent,
inclusive and accountable.
inclusive and accountable.
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使得这些系统更加透明，
更加兼容也更加值得信任。
更加兼容也更加值得信任。
16:58
Thank you very much.
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谢谢大家！
17:00
(Applause)
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（掌声）
17:02
Thank you.
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谢谢！
17:03
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rachel Botsman - Trust researcherRachel Botsman is a recognized expert on how collaboration and trust enabled by digital technologies will change the way we live, work, bank and consume.
Why you should listen
Rachel Botsman is an author and a visiting academic at the University of Oxford, Saïd Business School. Her work focuses on how technology is enabling trust in ways that are changing the way we live, work, bank and consume. She defined the theory of "collaborative consumption" in her first book, What's Mine Is Yours, which she co-authored with Roo Rogers. The concept was subsequently named by TIME as one of the "10 Ideas that Will Change the World" and by Thinkers50 as the 2015 Breakthrough Idea.
Named a "Young Global Leader" by the World Economic Forum, Botsman examines the growth and challenges of start-ups such as Airbnb, TaskRabbit and Uber. She is regular writer and commentator in leading international publications including the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Harvard Business Review, The Economist, WIRED and more. She is currently writing a new book that explores why the real disruption happening isn’t technology; it’s a profound shift in trust.
Rachel Botsman | Speaker | TED.com