ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.

Why you should listen

A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.

Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.

More profile about the speaker
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com
TED2009

Juan Enriquez: The next species of human

胡安 恩利克斯分享令人吃惊的新科技

Filmed:
3,584,967 views

即使庞大的银行纷纷崩溃,胡安 恩利克斯认为巨大的复苏仍然会来到。但别指望你的选票会起作用,或者股票交易。它会来自科学实验室,并且会带来更敏捷的身体与思维。我们的后代将会变得不同。
- Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
There's a great big elephant in the room房间 called the economy经济.
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经济是个重要,而又常被避开的话题。
00:16
So let's start开始 talking about that.
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让我们来聊下它。
00:18
I wanted to give you a current当前 picture图片 of the economy经济.
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我想给你们看看目前的经济状况。
00:21
That's what I have behind背后 myself.
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这是我自己身后的东西。
00:24
(Laughter笑声)
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笑声
00:27
But of course课程 what we have to remember记得 is this.
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言归正传,当然我们需要记住的,
00:30
And what you have to think about is,
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并且你们需要思考的是,
00:33
when you're dancing跳舞 in the flames火焰, what's next下一个?
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当你们在热焰上跳舞,后面会发生什么?
00:36
So what I'm going to try to do in the next下一个 17 and a half minutes分钟
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所以在接下来的17.5分钟里,我着意要做的是
00:39
is I'm going to talk first about the flames火焰 --
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首先要谈一谈这火焰
00:41
where we are in the economy经济 --
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目前我们所处的经济状况
00:43
and then I'm going to take three trends趋势
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接着我要提出三个趋势
00:45
that have taken采取 place地点 at TEDTED over the last 25 years年份
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这三个趋势已经在过去25年的TED大会上提到过
00:48
and that will take place地点 in this conference会议
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也会在这次的会议上涉及
00:50
and I will try and bring带来 them together一起.
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并且我会尝试把它们联系到一起。
00:53
And I will try and give you a sense of what the ultimate最终 reboot重启 looks容貌 like.
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同时尝试展示给你们看终极的复苏会是怎样的。
00:57
Those three trends趋势 are
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这三个趋势是
00:59
the ability能力 to engineer工程师 cells细胞,
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细胞工程
01:01
the ability能力 to engineer工程师 tissues组织,
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组织工程
01:03
and robots机器人.
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机器人工程
01:05
And somehow不知何故 it will all make sense.
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并且大家都会理解
01:07
But anyway无论如何, let's start开始 with the economy经济.
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不过,我们还是从经济讲起吧
01:10
There's a couple一对 of really big problems问题 that are still sitting坐在 there.
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有一些非常大的问题仍然存在
01:13
One is leverage杠杆作用.
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一个是杠杆化
01:15
And the problem问题 with leverage杠杆作用 is
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杠杆化的问题是
01:17
it makes品牌 the U.S. financial金融 system系统 look like this.
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它把美国的财政系统弄成了这个样子
01:20
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
01:27
So, a normal正常 commercial广告 bank银行 has nine to 10 times leverage杠杆作用.
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一个普通的商业银行有9到10倍
01:30
That means手段 for every一切 dollar美元 you deposit存款, it loans贷款 out about nine or 10.
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这意味着你存进银行的每一块钱都能贷出大约9或者10块
01:33
A normal正常 investment投资 bank银行 is not a deposit存款 bank银行,
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一个普通的投资银行不是存款银行,
01:36
it's an investment投资 bank银行;
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它是一个投资银行;
01:38
it has 15 to 20 times.
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有着大约15到20倍。
01:40
It turns out that B of A in September九月 had 32 times.
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结果美洲银行在9月份是32倍。
01:43
And your friendly友善 Citibank花旗银行 had 47 times.
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花旗银行有47倍。
01:46
Oops哎呀.
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喔哦。
01:48
That means手段 every一切 bad loan贷款 goes bad 47 times over.
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这就是说每笔坏帐会坏上47倍。
01:52
And that, of course课程, is the reason原因 why all of you
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那当然,就是为什么你们
01:55
are making制造 such这样 generous慷慨 and wonderful精彩 donations捐款
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做出了这么慷慨和美妙的捐赠
01:58
to these nice不错 folks乡亲.
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给这些人们。
02:03
And as you think about that,
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当你们在想这件事情的时候,
02:05
you've got to wonder奇迹: so what do banks银行 have in store商店 for you now?
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你们会觉得好奇:那银行里现在还为你们存着些什么呢?
02:11
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:20
It ain't pretty漂亮.
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显然不是很棒
02:23
The government政府, meanwhile与此同时, has been acting演戏 like Santa圣诞老人 Claus克劳斯.
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与此同时,政府扮的像圣诞老人一样
02:27
We all love Santa圣诞老人 Claus克劳斯, right?
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我们都爱圣诞老人不是吗?
02:30
But the problem问题 with Santa圣诞老人 Clause条款 is,
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不过,圣诞老人有个问题是,
02:33
if you look at the mandatory强制性 spending开支 of what these folks乡亲 have been doing
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如果你回顾下这些人的所作所为而导致的“强制性开销”
02:36
and promising有希望 folks乡亲,
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以及他们所承诺给人们的事项。
02:38
it turned转身 out that in 1967, 38 percent百分 was mandatory强制性 spending开支
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结果到了1937年,38%都是“强制性开销”
02:43
on what we call "entitlements权益."
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在了我们所谓“权利”上。
02:46
And then by 2007 it was 68 percent百分.
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到了07年变成了68%。
02:49
And we weren't supposed应该 to run into 100 percent百分 until直到 about 2030.
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到2030年左右,会达到100%
02:54
Except we've我们已经 been so busy giving away a trillion here, a trillion there,
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然而,如果我们再急不可耐的这里几万亿,那里几万亿
02:57
that we've我们已经 brought that date日期 of reckoning清算 forward前锋
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这个估算结果会提前
03:00
to about 2017.
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到2017年。
03:03
And we thought we were going to be able能够 to lay铺设 these debts债务 off on our kids孩子,
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我们认为自己将有能力不让我们的孩子承担这些债务,
03:06
but, guess猜测 what?
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但,你猜怎么着?
03:08
We're going to start开始 to pay工资 them.
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我们才开始偿还它们。
03:10
And the problem问题 with this stuff东东 is, now that the bill's法案 come due应有,
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关于这些事情的问题是,现在支票到期了,
03:12
it turns out Santa圣诞老人 isn't quite相当 as cute可爱 when it's summertime夏令.
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结果圣诞老人在夏天并不那么可爱了。
03:16
Right?
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对吗?
03:18
(Laughter笑声)
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笑声
03:30
Here's这里的 some advice忠告 from one of the largest最大 investors投资者 in the United联合的 States状态.
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这里是美国最大的投资商中的一位提出的一些建议。
03:34
This guy runs运行 the China中国 Investment投资 Corporation公司.
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这个人经营中国投资集团。
03:37
He is the main主要 buyer买方 of U.S. Treasury金库 bonds债券.
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他是美国国库券的主要购买者。
03:40
And he gave an interview访问 in December十二月.
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他在11月出席了一次访谈。
03:43
Here's这里的 his first bit of advice忠告.
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这是他的第一条建议。
03:45
And here's这里的 his second第二 bit of advice忠告.
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这是他的第二条建议。
03:50
And, by the way,
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顺便说一下,
03:52
the Chinese中文 Prime主要 Minister部长 reiterated重申 this at Davos达沃斯 last Sunday星期日.
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中国国务院总理上周日在达沃斯又重申了这点。
03:55
This stuff东东 is getting得到 serious严重 enough足够
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情况已经不容乐观了
03:57
that if we don't start开始 paying付款 attention注意 to the deficit赤字,
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如果我们仍然不重视这些缺陷
03:59
we're going to end结束 up losing失去 the dollar美元.
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结果就会是大量亏损。
04:02
And then all bets赌注 are off.
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仅此一项,就足以带来不堪设想的结果。
04:05
Let me show显示 you what it looks容貌 like.
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让我给你们看看情况会是怎样的。
04:08
I think I can safely安然 say
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我想我可以很有把握地说
04:10
that I'm the only trillionaire万亿富翁 in this room房间.
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我会是这个房间里唯一的万亿富翁。
04:14
This is an actual实际 bill法案.
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这是一张真的钞票。
04:16
And it's 10 triliiontriliion dollars美元.
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它值10万亿美元。
04:19
The only problem问题 with this bill法案 is it's not really worth价值 very much.
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问题只是它其实并不值这么多。
04:22
That was eight bucks雄鹿 last week, four bucks雄鹿 this week,
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上周是8块,这周就是4块,
04:25
a buck降压 next下一个 week.
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下周只值1块了。
04:27
And that's what happens发生 to currencies货币 when you don't stand behind背后 them.
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当我们支撑不了汇率的时候,这样的情况就会发生。
04:32
So the next下一个 time somebody as cute可爱 as this shows节目 up on your doorstep门阶,
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所以下次有类似这样可爱的人出现在你的门口时,
04:37
and sometimes有时 this creature's生物 called Chrysler克莱斯勒 and sometimes有时 Ford and sometimes有时 ... whatever随你 you want --
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有时候这个东西叫克莱斯勒或者有时是福特或者别的名字,
04:44
you've just got to say no.
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你就要说不。
04:46
And you've got to start开始 banishing放逐 a word that's called "entitlement权利."
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并且你必须开始不再使用“权益”这个词。
04:50
And the reason原因 we have to do that in the short term术语
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就眼前来说我们这样做的理由
04:53
is because we have just run out of cash现金.
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就是我们没钱了。
04:56
If you look at the federal联邦 budget预算, this is what it looks容貌 like.
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如果你们去看看联邦政府的预算,就是这个样子的
04:59
The orange橙子 slice is what's discretionary.
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橙色部分是自由资金,
05:02
Everything else其他 is mandated授权.
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别的都是强制性的。
05:05
It makes品牌 no difference区别 if we cut out the bridges桥梁 to Alaska阿拉斯加州 in the overall总体 scheme方案 of things.
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在整件事情里即使我们切断通向阿拉斯加的桥也不会发生什么变化。
05:08
So what we have to start开始 thinking思维 about doing
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所以我们不得不开始计划要做的
05:11
is capping封盖 our medical spending开支
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就是封住医疗支出
05:13
because that's a monster怪物 that's simply只是 going to eat the entire整个 budget预算.
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因为这是一头将会要吞噬掉所有预算的怪物。
05:16
We've我们已经 got to start开始 thinking思维 about asking people
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我们开始想要求人们
05:19
to retire退休 a little bit later后来.
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晚一点退休。
05:22
If you're 60 to 65 you retire退休 on time.
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如果你是在60倒65岁之间正常退休,
05:25
Your 401(k) just got nailed.
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你的退休金刚刚只受到一些影响。
05:27
If you're 50 to 60 we want you to work two years年份 more.
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如果你是50到60岁之间,我们希望你再多做两年。
05:30
If you're under 50 we want you to work four more years年份.
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如果你50不到,我们希望你再多做4年。
05:33
The reason原因 why that's reasonable合理 is,
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这样做合理的原因是,
05:36
when your grandparents祖父母 were given特定 Social社会 Security安全,
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当你祖父获得社会保障时,
05:38
they got it at 65 and were expected预期 to check out at 68.
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他们在65岁时开始领,68岁时领完。
05:41
Sixty-eight六十八个 is young年轻 today今天.
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如今68岁算年轻了。
05:44
We've我们已经 also got to cut the military军事 about three percent百分 a year.
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我们也需要每年削减军费3%。
05:48
We've我们已经 got to limit限制 other mandatory强制性 spending开支.
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并且限制其他强制开销。
05:50
We've我们已经 got to quit放弃 borrowing借款 as much,
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我们不能再借这么多钱
05:53
because otherwise除此以外 the interest利益 is going to eat that whole整个 pie馅饼.
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否则利息会吞噬整个预算。
05:56
And we've我们已经 got to end结束 up with a smaller government政府.
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最后就剩下一个更小的政府。
05:58
And if we don't start开始 changing改变 this trend趋势 line线,
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如果我们不开始改变这个趋势,
06:01
we are going to lose失去 the dollar美元
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就将会蒙受经济上的损失
06:03
and start开始 to look like Iceland冰岛.
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就会沦为象冰岛一样 。
06:05
I got what you're thinking思维.
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我知道你们在想什么。
06:08
This is going to happen发生 when hell地狱 freezes冻结 over.
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这一切只有在地狱封冻了才会发生。
06:13
But let me remind提醒 you this December十二月 it did snow in Vegas拉斯维加斯.
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但是我提醒你今年11月维加斯的确下雪了。
06:18
(Laughter笑声)
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笑声
06:23
Here's这里的 what happens发生 if you don't address地址 this stuff东东.
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如果你们不处理这些事,就将会发生的以下情况。
06:26
So, Japan日本 had a fiscal real真实 estate房地产 crisis危机
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日本发生过一次财政地产危机
06:29
back in the late晚了 '80s.
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在80年代后期。
06:31
And its 225 largest最大 companies公司 today今天
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今天它的225家最大的企业
06:34
are worth价值 one quarter25美分硬币 of what they were 18 years年份 ago.
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只有相当于18年前四分之一的价值。
06:37
We don't fix固定 this now,
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我们现在不解决这个问题,
06:39
how would you like to see a Dow道琼斯 3,500 in 2026?
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你是否乐意在2026年看到一个到琼斯3500点?
06:42
Because that's the consequence后果 of not dealing交易 with this stuff东东.
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因为这就是不处理这些事情的后果。
06:45
And unless除非 you want this person
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除非你希望这个人
06:48
to not just become成为 the CFO首席财务官 of Florida佛罗里达, but the United联合的 States状态,
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不仅变成佛罗里达州的首席财政官,并且掌管美国经济,
06:51
we'd星期三 better deal合同 with this stuff东东.
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我们最好处理好这些事情。
06:54
That's the short term术语. That's the flame火焰 part部分.
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以上是目前的情况,就是火焰的部分。
06:57
That's the financial金融 crisis危机.
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这就是金融危机。
06:59
Now, right behind背后 the financial金融 crisis危机 there's a second第二 and bigger wave
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现在,在金融危机背后的是第二波更大的浪潮
07:03
that we need to talk about.
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这是我们需要讲的。
07:04
That wave is much larger, much more powerful强大,
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这股浪潮要大的多,也有力的多,
07:06
and that's of course课程 the wave of technology技术.
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当然这是技术的浪潮。
07:09
And what's really important重要 in this stuff东东 is,
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在这里面最重要的是,
07:11
as we cut, we also have to grow增长.
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当我们在削减的同时,也需要增长。
07:13
Among其中 other things, because startup启动 companies公司
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不说别的,就只说新晋的公司
07:16
are .02 percent百分 of U.S. GDPGDP investmentminvestmentm
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只占美国GDP的投资的0.02%
07:18
and they're about 17.8 percent百分 of output产量.
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却带来了17.8%的产出
07:23
It's groups like that in this room房间 that generate生成 the future未来 of the U.S. economy经济.
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这样的一群人比如在这个房间内的各位便是创造美国经济未来的人。
07:26
And that's what we've我们已经 got to keep growing生长.
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这是我们需要保持增长的部分。
07:28
We don't have to keep growing生长 these bridges桥梁 to nowhere无处.
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我们不必毫无方向地发展。
07:32
So let's bring带来 a romance浪漫 novelist小说家 into this conversation会话.
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因此让我们把浪漫派作家带进这场谈话中。
07:38
And that's where these three trends趋势 come together一起.
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这是三个趋势合并到一起的地方
07:43
That's where the ability能力 to engineer工程师 microbes微生物,
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便是微生物工程
07:46
the ability能力 to engineer工程师 tissues组织,
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组织工程
07:48
and the ability能力 to engineer工程师 robots机器人
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机器人工程
07:50
begin开始 to lead to a reboot重启.
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所导向的复苏。
07:52
And let me recap概括 some of the stuff东东 you've seen看到.
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让我重述一些你们所见过的东西。
07:54
Craig克雷格 Venter腹部 showed显示 up last year
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克雷格 凡特去年来到这里
07:56
and showed显示 you the first fully充分 programmable可编程的 cell细胞 that acts行为 like hardware硬件
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并展示给大家第一个完全可编程的,运行起来就像计算机硬件般的细胞
07:58
where you can insert DNA脱氧核糖核酸 and have it boot up as a different不同 species种类.
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你能植入DNA,并且启动它,变成另一个物种。
08:01
In parallel平行, the folks乡亲 at MITMIT
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与此同时,在MIT的人们
08:04
have been building建造 a standard标准 registry注册处 of biological生物 parts部分.
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开始制定生物器官的标准注册表。
08:07
So think of it as a Radio无线电 Shack窝棚 for biology生物学.
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可以把这些想像成一股生物界的震荡波。
08:10
You can go out and get your proteins蛋白质, your RNARNA, your DNA脱氧核糖核酸, whatever随你.
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你可以获得你的蛋白质,RNA,DNA,或者任何东西。
08:13
And start开始 building建造 stuff东东.
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并开始制造东西。
08:16
In 2006 they brought together一起 high school学校 students学生们 and college学院 students学生们
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在2006年他们组织了一些高中生和大学生
08:19
and started开始 to build建立 these little odd creatures生物.
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开始制造这些奇怪的小东西。
08:21
They just happened发生 to be alive instead代替 of circuit电路 boards.
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它们的确活了起来而不只是电路板
08:24
Here was one of the first things they built内置.
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这是它们制造的第一个东西
08:27
So, cells细胞 have this cycle周期.
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细胞有这样的一个周期
08:29
First they don't grow增长.
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起先它们不生长
08:31
Then they grow增长 exponentially成倍.
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接着以指数速度生长
08:33
Then they stop growing生长.
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然后又停止
08:35
Graduate毕业 students学生们 wanted a way of telling告诉 which哪一个 stage阶段 they were in.
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研究生们希望找到一种方法能知道他们是处在什么阶段
08:38
So they engineered工程 these cells细胞
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所以他们改造了这些细胞
08:40
so that when they're growing生长 in the exponential指数 phase,
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这样这些细胞就能在指数增长阶段时,
08:42
they would smell like wintergreen冬青.
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散发除鹿蹄草的味道
08:44
And when they stopped停止 growing生长 they would smell like bananas香蕉.
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当它们停止生长就会闻起来像香蕉
08:47
And you could tell very easily容易 when your experiment实验 was working加工
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这样你就能很方便地知道你的实验什么时候是顺利的
08:50
and wasn't, and where it was in the phase.
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什么时候不起作用,以及它正处在什么阶段
08:53
This got a bit more complicated复杂 two years年份 later后来.
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在两年后这个实验又变得更复杂了一点
08:56
Twenty-one二十一 countries国家 came来了 together一起. Dozens许多 of teams球队.
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21个国家参与了进来,几十个团队
08:58
They started开始 competing竞争.
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他们开始竞争
09:00
The team球队 from Rice白饭 University大学 started开始 to engineer工程师 the substance物质 in red wine红酒
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莱斯大学的团队开始改造红酒里的物质
09:05
that makes品牌 red wine红酒 good for you
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把那些对你有好处的东西
09:07
into beer啤酒.
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放进啤酒
09:10
So you take resveratrol白藜芦醇 and you put it into beer啤酒.
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你可以提炼出白藜芦醇放进啤酒
09:14
Of course课程, one of the judges法官 is wandering飘零 by, and he goes,
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当然,有一位评审走过时,发出这样的惊叹
09:17
"Wow! Cancer-fighting抗癌 beer啤酒! There is a God."
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哇哦!抗癌啤酒!上帝的确存在!
09:21
(Laughter笑声)
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笑声
09:24
The team球队 from Taiwan台湾 was a little bit more ambitious有雄心.
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来自台湾得团队更雄心勃勃
09:27
They tried试着 to engineer工程师 bacterias in such这样 a way
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他们想要这样修改细菌
09:30
that they would act法案 as your kidneys肾脏.
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让它们像你们得肾脏一样工作
09:33
Four years年份 ago, I showed显示 you this picture图片.
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4年前,我给你们看了这张图片。
09:36
And people oohedoohed and ahhedahhed,
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人们惊叹不已,
09:38
because Cliff悬崖 Tabin塔宾 had been able能够 to grow增长 an extra额外 wing翅膀 on a chicken.
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因为克里夫 塔宾能在鸡身上多长一只翅膀出来
09:41
And that was very cool stuff东东 back then.
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那时候这真是非常酷的东西
09:44
But now moving移动 from bacterial细菌 engineering工程 to tissue组织 engineering工程,
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现在从细菌改造到生物组织制造
09:47
let me show显示 you what's happened发生 in that period of time.
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让我来展示给你们看这段时间里发生了什么
09:50
Two years年份 ago, you saw this creature生物.
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2年前,你们看这个生物。
09:53
An almost-extinct几乎绝迹 animal动物 from Xochimilco霍奇米尔科, Mexico墨西哥
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一种几乎灭绝的生物,生活在霍奇米尔科,墨西哥
09:56
called an axolotl蝾螈
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叫做蝾螈
09:58
that can re-generate再生 its limbs四肢.
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它能再生自己的四肢
10:00
You can freeze冻结 half its heart. It regrows继续生长.
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你能冷藏它的半颗心脏,它会再长出来
10:02
You can freeze冻结 half the brain. It regrows继续生长.
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冷藏它的一半大脑,它会再长出来
10:04
It's almost几乎 like leaving离开 Congress国会.
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几乎就像是离开国会
10:06
(Laughter笑声)
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笑声
10:12
But now, you don't have to have the animal动物 itself本身 to regenerate再生,
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但是现在,你不必要那个动物再自我恢复,
10:15
because you can build建立 cloned克隆 mice老鼠 molars磨牙 in PetriPetri网 dishes碗碟.
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因为你能在培养皿里制造克隆的老鼠的磨牙。
10:21
And, of course课程 if you can build建立 mice老鼠 molars磨牙 in PetriPetri网 dishes碗碟,
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当然如果你能在培养皿里制造老鼠牙齿
10:25
you can grow增长 human人的 molars磨牙 in PetriPetri网 dishes碗碟.
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你就也能在培养皿里生长人类的磨牙
10:28
This should not surprise you, right?
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这些不会让你感到惊奇吧?
10:30
I mean, you're born天生 with no teeth.
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你们出生的时候是没有牙齿的
10:32
You give away all your teeth to the tooth齿 fairy仙女.
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你把自己的牙齿全都给了牙仙
10:35
You re-grow重新长出 a set of teeth.
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又长出了一副牙齿
10:37
But then if you lose失去 one of those second第二 set of teeth, they don't regrow重新长出,
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但如果你失去了第二副牙齿,就不会再长出来了
10:40
unless除非, if you're a lawyer律师.
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除非,你是个律师
10:42
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:46
But, of course课程, for most of us,
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当然,我们大多数人,
10:49
we know how to grow增长 teeth, and therefore因此 we can take adult成人 stem teeth,
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我们知道怎样生长牙齿,所以我们能取出成人的干细胞,
10:52
put them on a biodegradable可生物降解 mold模子, re-grow重新长出 a tooth齿,
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放进一个能生物降解的模具,再生长出牙齿,
10:55
and simply只是 implant注入 it.
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就能很方便地植入它。
10:56
And we can do it with other things.
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我们也能用其他东西来做到这点
10:59
So, a Spanish西班牙语 woman女人 who was dying垂死 of T.B. had a donor捐赠者 trachea气管,
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一个因为肺结核而生命垂危西班牙妇女获得了一个捐赠的气管,
11:04
they took all the cells细胞 off the trachea气管,
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他们把气管上所有的细胞都去除,
11:06
they spraypaintedspraypainted her stem cells细胞 onto that cartilage软骨.
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然后在那软骨上面散布了她的干细胞。
11:09
She regrew再生长 her own拥有 trachea气管,
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她再生了自己的气管,
11:11
and 72 hours小时 later后来 it was implanted植入.
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72小时后它就被植入了。
11:14
She's now running赛跑 around with her kids孩子.
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现在她正和她的孩子一起嬉闹奔跑。
11:16
This is going on in Tony托尼 Atala's阿塔拉的 lab实验室 in Wake唤醒 Forest森林
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这是在维克丛林里的托尼阿塔拉实验室里发生的
11:19
where he is re-growing再生长 ears耳朵 for injured受伤 soldiers士兵,
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他为受伤的士兵再生长耳朵,
11:22
and he's also re-growing再生长 bladders水囊.
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他也再生膀胱。
11:26
So there are now nine women妇女 walking步行 around Boston波士顿
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在波士顿大约有九位女士带着再生的
11:29
with re-grown再生长 bladders水囊,
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膀胱四处走动,
11:31
which哪一个 is much more pleasant愉快 than walking步行 around with a whole整个 bunch of plastic塑料 bags包装袋
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相比起整个余生都要带着一大捆塑料袋
11:33
for the rest休息 of your life.
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出门要愉快多了。
11:35
This is kind of getting得到 boring无聊, right?
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有点无趣了是吗?
11:38
I mean, you understand理解 where this story's故事的 going.
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你们都理解发展的方向。
11:40
But, I mean it gets得到 more interesting有趣.
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但是它变得更有趣了。
11:42
Last year, this group was able能够 to take all the cells细胞 off a heart,
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去年,这个小组能取走一颗心脏上所有得细胞,
11:46
leaving离开 just the cartilage软骨.
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只留下软骨。
11:49
Then, they sprayed stem cells细胞 onto that heart, from a mouse老鼠.
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接着,他们在那个心脏上散布来自一只老鼠的干细胞。
11:51
Those stem cells细胞 self-organized自组织, and that heart started开始 to beat击败.
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这些干细胞自我组织,并且这个心脏开始跳了。
11:55
Life happens发生.
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生命出现了。
11:59
This may可能 be one of the ultimate最终 papers文件.
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这或许是最终极的论文之一。
12:02
This was doneDONE in Japan日本 and in the U.S., published发表 at the same相同 time,
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美国和日本都完成了这项实验,在同一时间发表,
12:05
and it rebooted重新启动 skin皮肤 cells细胞 into stem cells细胞, last year.
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然后去年又将皮肤细胞重新激活成干细胞。
12:10
That meant意味着 that you can take the stuff东东 right here,
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这以为着你可以把这里的东西拿出来,
12:13
and turn it into almost几乎 anything in your body身体.
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变成你身体里的任何东西。
12:15
And this is becoming变得 common共同, it's moving移动 very quickly很快,
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这正在变得普遍,发展得非常快,
12:18
it's moving移动 in a whole整个 series系列 of places地方.
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向一系列领域发展。
12:22
Third第三 trend趋势: robots机器人.
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第三个趋势:机器人。
12:25
Those of us of a certain某些 age年龄 grew成长 up expecting期待 that by now
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我们这年龄的人从年轻一直到现在还在期待
12:28
we would have Rosie罗西 the Robot机器人 from "The Jetsons摩登家庭" in our house.
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家里会有“杰森一家”里的罗茜和罗伯特。
12:32
And all we've我们已经 got is a Roomba伦巴.
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我们现在得到的就是地板清洁器。
12:35
(Laughter笑声)
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笑声
12:38
We also thought we'd星期三 have this robot机器人 to warn警告 us of danger危险.
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我们也希望这个机器人来为我们预警。
12:42
Didn't happen发生.
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也没发生。
12:44
And these were robots机器人 engineered工程 for a flat平面 world世界, right?
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这些机器人是为了一个平等的世界而制造的不是吗?
12:47
So, Rosie罗西 runs运行 around on skates冰鞋
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罗茜在滑板周围奔跑
12:49
and the other one ran on flat平面 threads线程.
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其他的在平的线路上跑着。
12:52
If you don't have a flat平面 world世界, that's not good,
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如果你得不到一个平等的世界,就不好了。
12:54
which哪一个 is why the robot's机器人 we're designing设计 today今天 are a little different不同.
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这就是为什么今天我们设计的机器人有些不同。
13:00
This is Boston波士顿 Dynamics'动力学' "BigDog大只的狗."
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这是波士顿动力的“大狗”。
13:05
And this is about as close as you can get to a physical物理 Turing图灵 test测试.
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这是你目前能看到的最接近物理图林测试的项目。
13:08
O.K., so let me remind提醒 you, a Turing图灵 test测试 is where you've got a wall,
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好了,让我提醒你们,图林测试就是你在一堵墙边,
13:12
you're talking to somebody on the other side of the wall,
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和墙另一边的某人交谈
13:14
and when you don't know if that thing is human人的 or animal动物 --
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同时并不清楚那个东西是人还是动物
13:17
that's when computers电脑 have reached到达 human人的 intelligence情报.
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这是在当电脑接近了人类的智力的时候。
13:21
This is not an intelligence情报 Turing图灵 rest休息,
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这不是一个智力图林测试,
13:24
but this is as close as you can get to a physical物理 Turing图灵 test测试.
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但这的确是目前最接近物理图林测试的。
13:27
And this stuff东东 is moving移动 very quickly很快,
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并且这东西移动的非常快,
13:29
and by the way, that thing can carry携带 about 350 pounds英镑 of weight重量.
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顺便说下,它能负重350磅。
13:34
These are not the only interesting有趣 robots机器人.
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这些不仅仅是有趣的机器人。
13:37
You've also got flies苍蝇, the size尺寸 of flies苍蝇,
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还有苍蝇尺寸的
13:39
that are being存在 made制作 by Robert罗伯特 Wood at Harvard哈佛.
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是由哈佛的罗伯特伍德制造的。
13:42
You've got StickybotsStickybots that are being存在 made制作 at Stanford斯坦福.
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你也会看到斯坦福制造的黏性机器人。
13:45
And as you bring带来 these things together一起,
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把这些放到一起来看,
13:48
as you bring带来 cells细胞, biological生物 tissue组织 engineering工程 and mechanics机械学 together一起,
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把细胞,生物组织工程,和机械工程放到一起,
13:54
you begin开始 to get some really odd questions问题.
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你开始会发现些非常奇怪的问题
13:57
In the last Olympics奥运会, this gentleman绅士,
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去年的奥林匹克运动会上,这位男士,
13:59
who had several一些 world世界 records记录 in the Special特别 Olympics奥运会,
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打破了好几项特奥会的世界纪律,
14:03
tried试着 to run in the normal正常 Olympics奥运会.
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并尝试参加常规的奥林匹克。
14:05
The only issue问题 with Oscar奥斯卡 Pistorius皮斯托留斯
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关于奥斯卡 皮斯特里斯的问题是
14:07
is he was born天生 without bones骨头 in the lower降低 part部分 of his legs.
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他生来腿的下半部分就没有骨头。
14:11
He came来了 within about a second第二 of qualifying排位赛.
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他带来另一种评判方式,
14:13
He sued起诉 to be allowed允许 to run,
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他上诉要求要求参赛,
14:16
and he won韩元 the suit适合,
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并且胜诉了。
14:18
but didn't qualify修饰 by time.
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但当时还没被认证。
14:20
Next下一个 Olympics奥运会, you can bet赌注 that Oscar奥斯卡, or one of Oscar's奥斯卡 successors继任者,
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下界奥林匹克,你能打赌是奥斯卡或是奥斯卡的后继者,
14:25
is going to make the time.
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会取得胜利。
14:27
And two or three Olympics奥运会 after that, they are going to be unbeatable无与伦比.
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并且在两到三界比赛之后,他们就会变的无可匹敌。
14:30
And as you bring带来 these trends趋势 together一起, and as you think of what it means手段
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当你把这些趋势放到一起,你开始思考这些意味着什么?
14:35
to take people who are profoundly深深 deaf, who can now begin开始 to hear --
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让完全失聪的人再度听到声音
14:39
I mean, remember记得 the evolution演化 of hearing听力 aids艾滋病, right?
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记得助听器的演变史吗?
14:42
I mean, your grandparents祖父母 had these great big cones,
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你的祖父辈使用这些大圆筒,
14:45
and then your parents父母 had these odd boxes盒子
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你的父辈使用这些奇怪的
14:47
that would squawk发牢骚 at odd times during dinner晚餐,
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会在吃饭时发出怪声的盒子,
14:49
and now we have these little buds that nobody没有人 sees看到.
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现在我们有了这些没人看的见的小设备。
14:51
And now you have cochlear人工耳蜗 implants植入物
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目前又有把耳蜗植入
14:53
that go into people's人们 heads and allow允许 the deaf to begin开始 to hear.
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进入人们的脑袋内让失聪的人开始能听见。
14:58
Now, they can't hear as well as you and I can.
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现在,他们不仅能像你我一样聆听。
15:00
But, in 10 or 15 machine generations they will,
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但是在10到15代产品演化后他们将能做到,
15:03
and these are machine generations, not human人的 generations.
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这些是机械的世代,不是人类的世代
15:06
And about two or three years年份 after they can hear as well as you and I can,
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在他们可以像你我一样听得大约2到3年以后,
15:10
they'll他们会 be able能够 to hear maybe how bats蝙蝠 sing, or how whales鲸鱼 talk,
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他们或许能听见蝙蝠如何歌唱,鲸鱼是如何交谈,
15:14
or how dogs小狗 talk, and other types类型 of tonal scales.
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狗儿如何聊天,或者其他的声调,
15:17
They'll他们会 be able能够 to focus焦点 their hearing听力,
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他们会能够集中他们的听力,
15:19
they'll他们会 be able能够 to increase增加 the sensitivity灵敏度, decrease减少 the sensitivity灵敏度,
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能够增加敏感度或者降低敏感度,
15:22
do a series系列 of things that we can't do.
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做许多我们不能做的事情。
15:24
And the same相同 thing is happening事件 in eyes眼睛.
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同样的事也会发生在视力上。
15:27
This is a group in Germany德国 that's beginning开始 to engineer工程师 eyes眼睛
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德国有一个小组开始改造眼睛
15:30
so that people who are blind can begin开始 to see light and dark黑暗.
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让盲人能开始看见亮暗。
15:34
Very primitive原始.
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还比较简单。
15:36
And then they'll他们会 be able能够 to see shape形状.
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然后他们会开始看见形状。
15:38
And then they'll他们会 be able能够 to see color颜色, and then they'll他们会 be able能够 to see in definition定义,
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接着能看见颜色,后来就是真的看见东西了,
15:41
and one day, they'll他们会 see as well as you and I can.
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直到有一天,他们能像你我般看。
15:44
And a couple一对 of years年份 after that, they'll他们会 be able能够 to see in ultraviolet紫外线,
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过了几年,他们就能看见紫外线了,
15:47
they'll他们会 be able能够 to see in infrared红外线, they'll他们会 be able能够 to focus焦点 their eyes眼睛,
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又能看见红外线了,能聚焦视力了,
15:49
they'll他们会 be able能够 to come into a microfocus微焦点.
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可以在微距上看东西。
15:52
They'll他们会 do stuff东东 you and I can't do.
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他们将做你我不能做的事情。
15:55
All of these things are coming未来 together一起,
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这些事情都汇集到一起,
15:57
and it's a particularly尤其 important重要 thing to understand理解,
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这是一个特别重要的需要大家来理解的事情,
16:01
as we worry担心 about the flames火焰 of the present当下,
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当我们在担心目前的热焰的时候,
16:04
to keep an eye on the future未来.
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也要放眼未来。
16:07
And, of course课程, the future未来 is looking back 200 years年份,
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当然,未来是往回看200年,
16:10
because next下一个 week is the 200th anniversary周年 of Darwin's达尔文 birth分娩.
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因为下周是达尔文诞辰200周年。
16:14
And it's the 150th anniversary周年 of the publication出版物 of "The Origin起源 of Species种类."
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也是“物种起源”出版150周年。
16:20
And Darwin达尔文, of course课程, argued争论 that evolution演化 is a natural自然 state.
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达尔文,当然,认为进化是自然状态。
16:24
It is a natural自然 state in everything that is alive, including包含 hominids原始人.
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是所有生命的自然状态,包括类人生物。
16:30
There have actually其实 been 22 species种类 of hominids原始人
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一共有22种类人物种
16:35
that have been around, have evolved进化, have wandered逛到 in different不同 places地方,
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它们经过进化并在各处漫游,
16:39
have gone走了 extinct绝种.
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然后灭绝了。
16:41
It is common共同 for hominids原始人 to evolve发展.
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类人进化是很普遍的。
16:46
And that's the reason原因 why, as you look at the hominid原始人 fossil化石 record记录,
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原因是,当你在看类人猿化石纪录的时候,
16:49
erectus直立人, and heidelbergensis海德堡, and floresiensis弗洛勒斯, and Neanderthals尼安德特人,
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直立人,海德堡人,佛罗勒斯人,尼安德特人,
16:57
and Homo智人 sapiens智人, all overlap交叠.
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以及智人,都有重叠。
17:02
The common共同 state of affairs事务 is to have overlapping重叠 versions版本 of hominids原始人,
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这种事的通常得情况就是有重叠类型的类人物种,
17:07
not one.
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而不仅仅就是一种。
17:09
And as you think of the implications启示 of that,
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你在想那些事情的含义时,
17:11
here's这里的 a brief简要 history历史 of the universe宇宙.
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这里有个宇宙的简史。
17:13
The universe宇宙 was created创建 13.7 billion十亿 years年份 ago,
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宇宙在137亿年前出现,
17:16
and then you created创建 all the stars明星, and all the planets行星,
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接着出现了所有的恒星及行星,
17:18
and all the galaxies星系, and all the Milky乳白色 Ways方法.
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还有星系,银河系。
17:20
And then you created创建 Earth地球 about 4.5 billion十亿 years年份 ago,
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地球时45亿年前出现的,
17:23
and then you got life about four billion十亿 years年份 ago,
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40亿年后出现了生命,
17:26
and then you got hominids原始人 about 0.006 billion十亿 years年份 ago,
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600万年前出现的类人猿,
17:30
and then you got our version of hominids原始人 about 0.0015 billion十亿 years年份 ago.
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我们这样的类人时在150万年前出现的。
17:35
Ta-dahTA-DAH!
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哒哒!
17:37
Maybe the reason原因 for thrTHR creation创建 of the universe宇宙,
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或许,宇宙起源的原因
17:39
and all the galaxies星系, and all the planets行星, and all the energy能源,
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以及所有的星系,所有的行星,所有的能量,
17:42
and all the dark黑暗 energy能源, and all the rest休息 of stuff东东
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所有的暗物质以及别的东西
17:44
is to create创建 what's in this room房间.
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就是为了创造这间房间里的一切。
17:48
Maybe not.
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或许不是。
17:51
That would be a mildly温和 arrogant傲慢 viewpoint观点.
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这个观点或许略微有些自大。
17:54
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
17:59
So, if that's not the purpose目的 of the universe宇宙, then what's next下一个?
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如果这不是宇宙的意义,那还会是什么?
18:04
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
18:08
I think what we're going to see is we're going to see a different不同 species种类 of hominid原始人.
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我想我们将会看到的是一种不同的类人物种。
18:13
I think we're going to move移动 from a Homo智人 sapiens智人 into a Homo智人 evolutisevolutis.
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我们会从智人变成演化人。
18:17
And I think this isn't 1,000 years年份 out.
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我认为这并不是1000年以后的事情。
18:19
I think most of us are going to glance一瞥 at it,
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我们中的大多数都将会去了解下,
18:22
and our grandchildren孙子 are going to begin开始 to live生活 it.
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我们的子孙后代将会这样去生存。
18:24
And a Homo智人 evolutisevolutis brings带来 together一起 these three trends趋势
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演化人会将这三种趋势带到一起
18:27
into a hominid原始人 that takes direct直接 and deliberate商榷 control控制
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变成一种直接且谨慎地控制
18:30
over the evolution演化 of his species种类, her species种类 and other species种类.
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它自身以及它后继物种的进化的类人。
18:35
And that, of course课程, would be the ultimate最终 reboot重启.
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当然,那将会是终极的复苏。
18:39
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
18:41
(Applause掌声)
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掌声
Translated by Boyang Zhu
Reviewed by Tony Yet

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.

Why you should listen

A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.

Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.

More profile about the speaker
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com