ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita - Political scientist
A consultant to the CIA and the Department of Defense, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has built an intricate computer model that can predict the outcomes of international conflicts with bewildering accuracy.

Why you should listen

Every motive has a number, says Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. A specialist in foreign policy, international relations and state building, he is also a leading -- if controversial -- scholar of rational choice theory, which says math underlies the nation-scale consequences of individuals acting for personal benefit. He created forecasting technology that has, time and again, exceeded the accuracy of old-school analysis, even with thorny quarrels charged by obscure contenders, and often against odds. (One example: He called the second Intifada two years in advance.)

Bueno de Mesquita's company, Mesquita & Roundell, sells his system's predictions and analysis to influential government and private institutions that need heads-ups on policy. He teaches at NYU and is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.

More profile about the speaker
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita | Speaker | TED.com
TED2009

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: A prediction for the future of Iran

布鲁斯·布恩诺·德·梅斯奎塔预测伊朗局势的未来

Filmed:
1,045,301 views

布鲁斯·布恩诺·德·梅斯奎塔利用数学分析在预测一些人类突发事件,像战争,政权转变,巴勒斯坦起义等等(通常正确)。进过一番精炼的解释他预测的方法,梅斯奎塔对伊朗局势做出了三个预言。
- Political scientist
A consultant to the CIA and the Department of Defense, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has built an intricate computer model that can predict the outcomes of international conflicts with bewildering accuracy. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:18
What I'm going to try to do is explain说明 to you
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我将很快的向大家解释一下
00:21
quickly很快 how to predict预测,
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我们怎样预测未来
00:23
and illustrate说明 it with some predictions预测
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并且向大家展示一下
00:25
about what Iran伊朗 is going to do in the next下一个 couple一对 of years年份.
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我们对未来几年伊朗局势所做出的一些预测
00:30
In order订购 to predict预测 effectively有效,
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为了做出准确的预测
00:33
we need to use science科学.
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我们需要利用科学
00:36
And the reason原因 that we need to use science科学
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而利用科学的原因是
00:39
is because then we can reproduce复制 what we're doing;
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我们可以重复验证所得到的结果
00:41
it's not just wisdom智慧 or guesswork猜测.
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这就不是智者的预言或者瞎猜
00:44
And if we can predict预测,
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如果我们可以预测未来
00:47
then we can engineer工程师 the future未来.
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我们就可以操纵未来
00:49
So if you are concerned关心 to influence影响 energy能源 policy政策,
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换言之,当你想去左右国家能源政策的时候
00:53
or you are concerned关心 to influence影响 national国民 security安全 policy政策,
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或者,当你想去影响国防政策
00:58
or health健康 policy政策, or education教育,
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医疗政策或教育政策的时候
01:01
science科学 -- and a particular特定 branch of science科学 -- is a way to do it,
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科学,其中一门科学将会为你指明未来
01:05
not the way we've我们已经 been doing it,
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并不是靠我们所使用的方法
01:07
which哪一个 is seat-of-the-pants座椅的最裤子 wisdom智慧.
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凭借经验或直觉去预言
01:09
Now before I get into how to do it
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现在,在我进入主题之前
01:11
let me give you a little truth真相 in advertising广告,
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我先给大家一些事先声明,
01:14
because I'm not engaged订婚 in the business商业 of magic魔法.
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我不是算命的
01:17
There are lots of thing that the approach途径 I take can predict预测,
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有一些东西我可以预测
01:21
and there are some that it can't.
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有一些我不能
01:23
It can predict预测 complex复杂 negotiations谈判
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我可以预测一些大型谈判
01:26
or situations情况 involving涉及 coercion强迫 --
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牵涉强制力的一些情景
01:29
that is in essence本质 everything that has to do with politics政治,
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总的来说,那就是所有和政治有关的事情
01:33
much of what has to do with business商业,
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也包括一部份商业方面的
01:35
but sorry, if you're looking to speculate推测 in the stock股票 market市场,
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但如果你想在股市抄底,那实在不好意思
01:41
I don't predict预测 stock股票 markets市场 -- OK,
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我确实不能预测股票市场,不过,好吧
01:43
it's not going up any time really soon不久.
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反正最近是绝对不可能涨上去的
01:46
But I'm not engaged订婚 in doing that.
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但那是我不会预测的
01:49
I'm not engaged订婚 in predicting预测 random随机 number generators发电机.
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我也不会去预测随机生成的数字
01:52
I actually其实 get phone电话 calls电话 from people
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有人曾今打电话问我
01:54
who want to know what lottery抽奖 numbers数字 are going to win赢得.
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下期中奖彩票号码是多少
01:57
I don't have a clue线索.
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那我爱莫能助。
02:00
I engage从事 in the use of game游戏 theory理论, game游戏 theory理论 is a branch of mathematics数学
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我所研究的是博弈论的应用,博弈论是数学的一个分支
02:04
and that means手段, sorry, that even in the study研究 of politics政治,
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也就是说,对不起(文科生们),数学已经进入了
02:08
math数学 has come into the picture图片.
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政治学的研究领域
02:11
We can no longer pretend假装 that we just speculate推测 about politics政治,
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我们现在不能被动的盲目的去推测政治
02:15
we need to look at this in a rigorous严格 way.
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我们应该采取科学严谨的方法。
02:18
Now, what is game游戏 theory理论 about?
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那,到底什么是博弈论?
02:21
It assumes假设 that people are looking out for what's good for them.
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博弈论有一个假设,那就是人人为己
02:26
That doesn't seem似乎 terribly可怕 shocking触目惊心 --
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这并不是一个让人吃惊的假设
02:28
although虽然 it's controversial争论的 for a lot of people --
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尽管有很多人认为人人都是自私自利
02:30
that we are self-interested自利.
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是有争议的命题
02:34
In order订购 to look out for what's best最好 for them
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为了设法得到对自己最好的东西
02:36
or what they think is best最好 for them,
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或者是他们所认定的对自己最好的东西
02:38
people have values -- they identify鉴定 what they want, and what they don't want.
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人们会通过他们不同的价值观,来识别他们所想要的和所憎恨的
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And they have beliefs信仰 about what other people want,
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而且,他们对别人想要什么,不想要什么
02:45
and what other people don't want, how much power功率 other people have,
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别人有多少势力,他们能拿走多少你想要的
02:48
how much those people could get in the way of whatever随你 it is that you want.
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保留他们自己的观点
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And they face面对 limitations限制, constraints限制,
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他们会遇到一些条件限制,约束
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they may可能 be weak, they may可能 be located位于 in the wrong错误 part部分 of the world世界,
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也许他们十分的不起眼,也许他们在不应在的一些地方
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they may可能 be Einstein爱因斯坦, stuck卡住 away farming农业
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他们可能是爱因斯坦,但是被可能被困在
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someplace某个地方 in a rural乡村 village in India印度 not being存在 noticed注意到,
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印度的某个村落在种田
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as was the case案件 for Ramanujan拉马努金 for a long time,
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就像拉马努金一样
03:09
a great mathematician数学家 but nobody没有人 noticed注意到.
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一个很少人关注的印度天才数学家
03:12
Now who is rational合理的?
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那,谁是理性的
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A lot of people are worried担心 about what is rationality理性 about?
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很多人都在冥想到底什么是理性的
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You know, what if people are rational合理的?
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人人都是理性的
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Mother母亲 Theresa有一个, she was rational合理的.
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特蕾莎修女,她是理性的
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Terrorists恐怖分子, they're rational合理的.
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恐怖分子,他们也是理性
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Pretty漂亮 much everybody每个人 is rational合理的.
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绝大多数人都是理性的
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I think there are only two exceptions例外 that I'm aware知道的 of --
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我只知道两种例外情况
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two-year-olds两岁的孩子, they are not rational合理的,
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两岁大的孩子,他们不是理性的
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they have very fickle薄情 preferences优先,
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他们想要的东西随时都在变
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they switch开关 what they think all the time,
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他们的思维方式也在不停的变化
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and schizophrenics精神分裂症患者 are probably大概 not rational合理的,
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精神分裂症患者也不是理性的
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but pretty漂亮 much everybody每个人 else其他 is rational合理的.
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但除了以上两者以外,其他所有人都是理性的
03:44
That is, they are just trying to do
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所谓理性,那就是人们试着去做
03:46
what they think is in their own拥有 best最好 interest利益.
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他们认为对他们自己最有利的事情
03:51
Now in order订购 to work out what people are going to do
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现在,为了预测人们将要做什么
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to pursue追求 their interests利益,
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来获取他们的个人利益
03:55
we have to think about who has influence影响 in the world世界.
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我们研究那些有影响力的人物
03:57
If you're trying to influence影响 corporations公司 to change更改 their behavior行为,
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如果,你想去左右一些企业的行为
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with regard看待 to producing生产 pollutants污染物,
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例如,减少他们污染物的排放量
04:05
one approach途径, the common共同 approach途径,
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有一个方法,一种常见的方法
04:07
is to exhort劝告 them to be better,
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那就是给他们一些忠告
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to explain说明 to them what damage损伤 they're doing to the planet行星.
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告诉他们这些污染物正在破坏我们的地球
04:12
And many许多 of you may可能 have noticed注意到 that doesn't have
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你会发现这些手段的效果
04:14
as big an effect影响, as perhaps也许 you would like it to have.
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并没有你所想象中的那么大
04:18
But if you show显示 them that it's in their interest利益,
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但是,如果你告诉他们环保符合他们的利益
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then they're responsive响应.
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他们就会有所回应
04:23
So, we have to work out who influences影响 problems问题.
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所以,我们就应该找出谁是有影响力的人物。
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If we're looking at Iran伊朗, the president主席 of the United联合的 States状态
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如果我们研究伊朗,我们就会发现
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we would like to think, may可能 have some influence影响 --
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美国总统会有一定的影响力
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certainly当然 the president主席 in Iran伊朗 has some influence影响 --
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当然伊朗的总统也有一定的影响力
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but we make a mistake错误 if we just pay工资 attention注意
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但我们会犯一个错误
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to the person at the top最佳 of the power功率 ladder阶梯
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当我们只关心决策层的领导
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because that person doesn't know much about Iran伊朗,
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因为那个领导人不一定理解伊朗
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or about energy能源 policy政策,
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抑或能源政策
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or about health健康 care关心,
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或者医疗政策
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or about any particular特定 policy政策.
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甚至有可能不了解任何的政策
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That person surrounds围绕着 himself他自己 or herself她自己 with advisers顾问.
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那个领导人的周围一定还有很多的顾问
04:55
If we're talking about national国民 security安全 problems问题,
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若是我们在讨论国家安全问题
04:57
maybe it's the Secretary秘书 of State,
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那个顾问可能是国务卿
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maybe it's the Secretary秘书 of Defense防御,
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可能是国防部长
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the Director导向器 of National国民 Intelligence情报,
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情报部门的主任
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maybe the ambassador大使 to the United联合的 Nations国家, or somebody else其他
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或者是驻联合国的大使,或是决策层自选的
05:05
who they think is going to know more about the particular特定 problem问题.
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一些相关问题专家。
05:09
But let's face面对 it, the Secretary秘书 of State doesn't know much about Iran伊朗.
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但现实是,国务卿也不一定十分了解伊朗
05:12
The secretary秘书 of defense防御 doesn't know much about Iran伊朗.
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国防部长不一定十分了解伊朗
05:15
Each of those people in turn
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这些顾问们,同样的
05:18
has advisers顾问 who advise劝告 them,
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他们也被更多的顾问所包围着
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so they can advise劝告 the president主席.
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这样他们才能向总统进谏
05:23
There are lots of people shaping成型 decisions决定
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所以,是许多人影响做出决策
05:26
and so if we want to predict预测 correctly正确地
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也就是说,如果我们想正确的做出预测
05:28
we have to pay工资 attention注意 to everybody每个人
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我们必须关注影响决策结果
05:31
who is trying to shape形状 the outcome结果,
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的每一个人
05:33
not just the people at the pinnacle巅峰
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并不仅仅是在决策机构
05:36
of the decision-making做决定 pyramid金字塔.
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金字塔尖上的人
05:40
Unfortunately不幸, a lot of times we don't do that.
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但不幸的是,大多数时候我们没有这么做
05:42
There's a good reason原因 that we don't do that,
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我们有很好的理由不这样做,
05:44
and there's a good reason原因 that using运用 game游戏 theory理论 and computers电脑,
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我们也有好的理由去利用博弈论和电脑
05:47
we can overcome克服 the limitation局限性
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来克服仅仅关注在决策层的几个人
05:50
of just looking at a few少数 people.
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而做出预测的局限性
05:52
Imagine想像 a problem问题 with just five decision-makers决定者.
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让我们来假想一个仅有五个决策人的情况。
05:56
Imagine想像 for example
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比如说
05:58
that Sally出击 over here,
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Sally在那里
06:00
wants to know what Harry掠夺, and Jane,
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她想知道Harry, Jane, George和Frank
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and George乔治 and Frank坦率 are thinking思维,
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在想些什么
06:06
and sends发送 messages消息 to those people.
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她向其他人提供了一些信息
06:08
Sally'sSally的 giving her opinion意见 to them,
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Sally在给其他人传达她的观点
06:10
and they're giving their opinion意见 to Sally出击.
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其他人把他们的观点告诉给她
06:13
But Sally出击 also wants to know
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但Sally还想知道
06:15
what Harry掠夺 is saying to these three,
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Harry在给其他三个人说了些什么
06:18
and what they're saying to Harry掠夺.
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其他三个人有给Harry说了些什么
06:20
And Harry掠夺 wants to know
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然后Harry还想知道
06:22
what each of those people are saying to each other, and so on,
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其他人有在说些什么,以此类推
06:25
and Sally出击 would like to know what Harry掠夺 thinks those people are saying.
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Sally还想知道Harry认为其他人在说些什么
06:28
That's a complicated复杂 problem问题; that's a lot to know.
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这就变成了一个很复杂的问题,太多的信息
06:31
With five decision-makers决定者
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当有五个决策人的时候
06:34
there are a lot of linkages联系 --
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就有很多的联系信息
06:36
120, as a matter of fact事实,
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事实上有120个
06:38
if you remember记得 your factorials阶乘.
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如果你记得5的阶乘
06:40
Five factorial阶乘 is 120.
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5的阶乘是120
06:42
Now you may可能 be surprised诧异 to know
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但也许出乎你的意外
06:44
that smart聪明 people can keep 120 things straight直行
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一个聪明的人可以在大脑里
06:47
in their head.
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搞清楚120事情的来龙去脉
06:49
Suppose假设 we double the number of influencers影响力
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但如果我们把决策人的数量翻一倍
06:51
from five to 10.
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从五人到十人
06:53
Does that mean we've我们已经 doubled翻倍 the number of pieces of information信息
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那我们是不是简单的关系的数量
06:57
we need to know, from 120 to 240?
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也乘以2, 从120到240呢?
06:59
No. How about 10 times?
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不?十倍?
07:01
To 1,200? No.
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1200?不
07:04
We've我们已经 increased增加 it to 3.6 million百万.
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我们事实上增加到了三百六十万条信息
07:07
Nobody没有人 can keep that straight直行 in their head.
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没人能够把这弄清楚
07:09
But computers电脑,
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但是电脑可以
07:12
they can. They don't need coffee咖啡 breaks休息,
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它们可以。它们不用停下来喝咖啡
07:15
they don't need vacations休假,
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它们不会放假
07:18
they don't need to go to sleep睡觉 at night,
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它们晚上不用睡觉
07:20
they don't ask for raises加薪 either.
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他们也不会要求加薪
07:23
They can keep this information信息 straight直行
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它们能够理清楚所有的信息
07:25
and that means手段 that we can process处理 the information信息.
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也就是说,我们可以利用它们来处理信息
07:28
So I'm going to talk to you about how to process处理 it,
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接下来,我会告诉你们怎样来处理
07:30
and I'm going to give you some examples例子 out of Iran伊朗,
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然后我会向你们展示一下关于伊朗的一些预测
07:33
and you're going to be wondering想知道,
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你也许会纳闷儿了
07:35
"Why should we listen to this guy?
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我们凭什么相信这个家伙?
07:37
Why should we believe what he's saying?"
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为什么我们要听信他所说的?
07:40
So I'm going to show显示 you a factoid仿真陈述.
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所以,我先让你们看个数据
07:44
This is an assessment评定 by the Central中央 Intelligence情报 Agency机构
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这是中情局提供的一份评估报告
07:47
of the percentage百分比 of time
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关于我所提到的这个模型
07:49
that the model模型 I'm talking about
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所做出的一些正确预测
07:51
is right in predicting预测 things whose谁的 outcome结果 is not yet然而 known已知,
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反而是提供数据的专家
07:54
when the experts专家 who provided提供 the data数据 inputs输入
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做出了错误的预测
07:58
got it wrong错误.
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错误的预测
08:00
That's not my claim要求, that's a CIA中央情报局 claim要求 -- you can read it,
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我不是自卖自夸,这是中情局的东西,你可以读到的
08:03
it was declassified解密 a while ago. You can read it in a volume edited编辑 by
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这报告在前一阵子解的密。你可以在
08:06
H. Bradford布拉德福德 Westerfield韦斯特, Yale耶鲁 University大学 Press.
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H. Bradford Westerfield编撰的一本书里读到,耶鲁大学出版社
08:09
So, what do we need to know
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所以,我们需要什么样的信息
08:11
in order订购 to predict预测?
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来做出预测呢?
08:13
You may可能 be surprised诧异 to find out we don't need to know very much.
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也许出乎你的意料之外,我们不需要太多的东西
08:16
We do need to know who has a stake赌注
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我们需要知道的是:哪些人有利害关系
08:19
in trying to shape形状 the outcome结果 of a decision决定.
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并试图左右决策。
08:24
We need to know what they say they want,
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我们需要知道,他们口头上说的目标是什么
08:27
not what they want in their heart of hearts心中,
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不一定是他们真正心里所想的目标
08:30
not what they think they can get,
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不一定是他们认为他们能够得到的
08:32
but what they say they want, because that is a strategically战略性 chosen选择 position位置,
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而是挂在嘴边的目的,因为那是一个策略性姿态
08:35
and we can work backwards向后 from that
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我们可以反过来推测,到底什么是
08:37
to draw inferences推论 about important重要 features特征 of their decision-making做决定.
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真正的左右他们决策的重点。
08:41
We need to know how focused重点 they are
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我们还需要知道,对于面临的问题
08:43
on the problem问题 at hand.
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他们的关切程度有多少。
08:45
That is, how willing愿意 are they to drop下降 what they're doing when the issue问题 comes up,
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也就是说,当争议出现时,他们有多情愿放弃手头的东西
08:48
and attend出席 to it instead代替 of something else其他 that's on their plate盘子 --
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并且注意这些而不是盘子里的其他东西
08:52
how big a deal合同 is it to them?
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这些东西对他们的重要程度是多少?
08:54
And how much clout影响力 could they bring带来 to bear
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我们还需知道 对这件事情到底他们能有多大的影响力
08:57
if they chose选择 to engage从事 on the issue问题?
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如果他们选择介入议题。
09:02
If we know those things
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如果我们了解到了这些
09:04
we can predict预测 their behavior行为 by assuming假设 that everybody每个人
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我们假设决策人都十分关心
09:07
cares管它 about two things on any decision决定.
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决策的两个东西(“名“与“利”),从而预测他们会做出的决策。
09:12
They care关心 about the outcome结果. They'd他们会 like an outcome结果 as close to
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他们重视结果,并尽可能的把最终决策
09:14
what they are interested有兴趣 in as possible可能.
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拉向对自己有利的方向
09:17
They're careerists野心家, they also care关心 about getting得到 credit信用 --
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这些决策人也是干事业的,他们关心自己的信誉
09:20
there's ego自我 involvement参与,
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成就感是一个因素
09:22
they want to be seen看到 as important重要 in shaping成型 the outcome结果,
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他们希望别人把他们看成促成决策结果的重要人物
09:26
or as important重要, if it's their druthers能选择的话, to block an outcome结果.
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或者,成为阻碍决策结果的产生的重要人物。
09:31
And so we have to figure数字 out how they balance平衡 those two things.
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所以,我们还要找到他们名利双收的平衡点
09:34
Different不同 people trade贸易 off
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对于最终决策和成就感
09:36
between之间 standing常设 by their outcome结果,
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人人都有不一样的权衡
09:39
faithfully忠实 holding保持 to it, going down in a blaze火焰 of glory荣耀,
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有的人信守承诺,虔诚的追求荣光,
09:42
or giving it up, putting their finger手指 in the wind,
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有的不管如何,见风使舵,
09:45
and doing whatever随你 they think is going to be a winning胜利 position位置.
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朝着自认获利方向行动。
09:48
Most people fall秋季 in between之间, and if we can work out where they fall秋季
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有的人站在在中间。如果我们知道他们的态度
09:51
we can work out how to negotiate谈判 with them
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我们就可以对他做相应的工作
09:53
to change更改 their behavior行为.
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来改变他的行为
09:55
So with just that little bit of input输入
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所以,利用那些信息
09:58
we can work out what the choices选择 are that people have,
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我们可以找出决策者们有什么样的选择
10:01
what the chances机会 are that they're willing愿意 to take,
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他们愿意冒多大的风险
10:04
what they're after, what they value, what they want,
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他们想要什么,他们的价值观,他们的目的
10:07
and what they believe about other people.
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和他们认为别人想要什么
10:10
You might威力 notice注意 what we don't need to know:
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你可能注意到了有一些信息是不重要的
10:14
there's no history历史 in here.
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我们不需要知道过去的历史
10:16
How they got to where they are
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他们怎么回到今天这个地步
10:18
may可能 be important重要 in shaping成型 the input输入 information信息,
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也许对他们做出决策很重要
10:20
but once一旦 we know where they are
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但一旦我们知道他们到了今天局势
10:22
we're worried担心 about where they're going to be headed当家 in the future未来.
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我们想知道的就是他们未来的发展方向
10:25
How they got there turns out not to be terribly可怕 critical危急 in predicting预测.
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所以,今天的形势是如何形成的,在预测中并不关键
10:29
I remind提醒 you of that 90 percent百分 accuracy准确性 rate.
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我再提醒下大家我们百分之九十的正确率
10:33
So where are we going to get this information信息?
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那么,我们怎样获得相关信息呢?
10:35
We can get this information信息
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我们通过各种渠道搜集信息
10:38
from the Internet互联网, from The Economist经济学家,
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互联网,经济学人杂志
10:41
The Financial金融 Times, The New York纽约 Times,
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金融时报,纽约时报
10:44
U.S. News新闻 and World世界 Report报告, lots of sources来源 like that,
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美国新闻和世界报道,还有其他一些资源
10:47
or we can get it from asking experts专家
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或者我们会直接去询问那些
10:49
who spend their lives生活 studying研究 places地方 and problems问题,
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花费了毕生精力来研究该地区和问题的专家
10:52
because those experts专家 know this information信息.
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因为他们有大量的信息
10:55
If they don't know, who are the people trying to influence影响 the decision决定,
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如果那些专家都不知道有哪些人在影响最终决策
10:58
how much clout影响力 do they have,
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那些人有多大能耐
11:00
how much they care关心 about this issue问题, and what do they say they want,
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有多关心最终结果,那些人表面上的目的
11:03
are they experts专家? That's what it means手段 to be an expert专家,
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那他们还是什么“专家”。作为专家
11:06
that's the basic基本 stuff东东 an expert专家 needs需求 to know.
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他们就应该知道这些基础问题的答案
11:10
Alright好的, lets让我们 turn to Iran伊朗.
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好,现在我们转向伊朗
11:12
Let me make three important重要 predictions预测 --
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我会做出三个重要的预测
11:15
you can check this out, time will tell.
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我们走着瞧,时间会证明一切
11:18
What is Iran伊朗 going to do about its nuclear weapons武器 program程序?
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伊朗的核武器计划是怎样的?
11:26
How secure安全 is the theocratic政教合一 regime政权 in Iran伊朗?
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伊朗政教合一的政权是否稳定?
11:29
What's its future未来?
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它的未来怎样?
11:31
And everybody's每个人的 best最好 friend朋友,
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还有我们大家的朋友
11:34
Ahmadinejad内贾德. How are things going for him?
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伊朗总统内贾德。 他的下场是怎样的?
11:37
How are things going to be working加工 out for him in the next下一个 year or two?
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他未来一两年的日子好过吗?
11:43
You take a look at this, this is not based基于 on statistics统计.
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你们可以看看这个,这些不是基于统计数字
11:46
I want to be very clear明确 here. I'm not projecting突出 some past过去 data数据 into the future未来.
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我想明确这一点。我不是在用过去的数字来预测未来
11:51
I've taken采取 inputs输入 on positions位置 and so forth向前,
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我把各种有影响力的人物关于些问题所占的位置
11:54
run it through通过 a computer电脑 model模型
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输入一个电脑模型
11:56
that had simulated模拟 the dynamics动力学 of interaction相互作用,
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并模拟真人动态互相影响的过程
11:59
and these are the simulated模拟 dynamics动力学,
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这就是整个模拟的动态过程
12:01
the predictions预测 about the path路径 of policy政策.
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我们对伊朗核政策路线的预测
12:04
So you can see here on the vertical垂直 axis,
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你先可以看到纵轴
12:07
I haven't没有 shown显示 it all the way down to zero,
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我没有一直写到零
12:09
there are lots of other options选项, but here I'm just showing展示 you the prediction预测,
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这还有其他很多可能,但我仅仅展示了我们的预测
12:12
so I've narrowed收窄 the scale规模.
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我也缩小了比例
12:14
Up at the top最佳 of the axis, "Build建立 the Bomb炸弹."
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在纵轴的最高处写着 :制造核弹
12:17
At 130, we start开始 somewhere某处 above以上 130,
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在130这个位置,我们大概从130开始
12:21
between之间 building建造 a bomb炸弹, and making制造 enough足够 weapons-grade武器级 fuel汽油
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那是在制造一枚核弹
12:24
so that you could build建立 a bomb炸弹.
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和生产足够核武器原料之间
12:26
That's where, according根据 to my analyses分析,
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根据我的分析,那就是
12:29
the Iranians伊朗人 were at the beginning开始 of this year.
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伊朗人今年初所在的位置
12:32
And then the model模型 makes品牌 predictions预测 down the road.
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现在,我们的模型开是进行预测了
12:35
At 115 they would only produce生产 enough足够 weapons武器 grade年级 fuel汽油
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在115,他们只会生产足够的核武器原料
12:39
to show显示 that they know how, but they wouldn't不会 build建立 a weapon武器:
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以展示他们懂得怎么造,但他们不会去造
12:41
they would build建立 a research研究 quantity数量.
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他们会制造足够的原料用于科研
12:43
It would achieve实现 some national国民 pride自豪,
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这样可以震震国威
12:45
but not go ahead and build建立 a weapon武器.
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但不会去制造真正的核弹
12:48
And down at 100 they would build建立 civilian平民 nuclear energy能源,
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在下面100的地方,他们会制造和原料以用于核能生产
12:50
which哪一个 is what they say is their objective目的.
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也就是他们口头上的目标
12:54
The yellow黄色 line线 shows节目 us the most likely容易 path路径.
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黄线告诉我们他们最有可能的路线
12:57
The yellow黄色 line线 includes包括 an analysis分析
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这条黄线包括了
12:58
of 87 decision决定 makers制造商 in Iran伊朗,
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87个重要的伊朗决策人
13:01
and a vast广大 number of outside influencers影响力
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和大量向伊朗施加压力
13:04
trying to pressure压力 Iran伊朗 into changing改变 its behavior行为,
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的外国势力
13:07
various各个 players玩家 in the United联合的 States状态, and Egypt埃及,
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这包括: 美国,埃及
13:10
and Saudi沙特 Arabia阿拉伯, and Russia俄国, European欧洲的 Union联盟,
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沙特阿拉伯,俄罗斯,欧盟
13:12
Japan日本, so on and so forth向前.
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和日本,等等
13:14
The white白色 line线 reproduces再现 the analysis分析
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白线所代表的
13:18
if the international国际 environment环境
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是将外国势力排除在外的伊朗政策走向
13:20
just left Iran伊朗 to make its own拥有 internal内部 decisions决定,
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如果国外势力不向伊朗施加压力
13:23
under its own拥有 domestic国内 political政治 pressures压力.
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让伊朗人自己做决定
13:25
That's not going to be happening事件,
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虽然那不会发生
13:27
but you can see that the line线 comes down faster更快
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但是你可以看到,线向下滑的更快了
13:31
if they're not put under international国际 pressure压力,
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若没有国际压力的情况下
13:34
if they're allowed允许 to pursue追求 their own拥有 devices设备.
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而让他们自己发展
13:36
But in any event事件, by the end结束 of this year,
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但不管怎样,在今年底
13:39
beginning开始 of next下一个 year, we get to a stable稳定 equilibrium平衡 outcome结果.
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明年初,我们会有出现一个平衡
13:42
And that equilibrium平衡 is not what the United联合的 States状态 would like,
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这个平衡不是美国想要的,
13:46
but it's probably大概 an equilibrium平衡 that the United联合的 States状态 can live生活 with,
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不过这个平衡是美国可以忍受的,
13:49
and that a lot of others其他 can live生活 with.
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很多人都可以忍受它。
13:51
And that is that Iran伊朗 will achieve实现 that nationalist民族主义者 pride自豪
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那就是,伊朗以制造足够的核武器原料
13:55
by making制造 enough足够 weapons-grade武器级 fuel汽油, through通过 research研究,
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获得民族自豪感,
13:59
so that they could show显示 that they know how to make weapons-grade武器级 fuel汽油,
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展示他们有能力制造武器级核燃料,
14:03
but not enough足够 to actually其实 build建立 a bomb炸弹.
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但不够制造一枚核弹。
14:08
How is this happening事件?
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这是怎么会事?
14:10
Over here you can see this is the distribution分配
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在这里,你可以看到
14:14
of power功率 in favor偏爱 of civilian平民 nuclear energy能源 today今天,
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今天支持修建核电站的势力分布
14:19
this is what that power功率 block is predicted预料到的 to be like
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也就是说,这就是在2010年末,2011年初
14:22
by the late晚了 parts部分 of 2010, early parts部分 of 2011.
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这个可能性的支持者将会变成这样
14:28
Just about nobody没有人 supports支持 research研究 on weapons-grade武器级 fuel汽油 today今天,
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虽然今天没有支持生产足够核武器原料
14:32
but by 2011 that gets得到 to be a big block,
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但在2011年,那一组人将变成最大的一块
14:35
and you put these two together一起, that's the controlling控制 influence影响 in Iran伊朗.
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把这两块放在一起,他们便成了控制伊朗的主流力量
14:39
Out here today今天, there are a bunch of people --
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在今天,有一群人
14:42
Ahmadinejad内贾德 for example --
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比如说,内贾德先生
14:44
who would like not only to build建立 a bomb炸弹,
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他们不仅想造一枚核弹
14:46
but test测试 a bomb炸弹.
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还想实验一枚核弹
14:48
That power功率 disappears消失 completely全然;
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那一股势力在2011年
14:50
nobody没有人 supports支持 that by 2011.
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将会彻底的消失
14:53
These guys are all shrinking萎缩,
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这些人在缩小
14:55
the power功率 is all drifting漂流 out here,
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这股势力将会移向那里
14:58
so the outcome结果 is going to be the weapons-grade武器级 fuel汽油.
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所以结果将是他们会制造核武原料
15:01
Who are the winners获奖者 and who are the losers失败者 in Iran伊朗?
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那么在伊朗到底谁是赢家和输家呢?
15:04
Take a look at these guys, they're growing生长 in power功率,
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我们来看看这些人,他们的势力在增加
15:07
and by the way, this was doneDONE a while ago
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顺便说一下,这个预测做了有一阵子了
15:10
before the current当前 economic经济 crisis危机,
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在这次金融危机之前做的
15:12
and that's probably大概 going to get steeper陡峭的.
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那就是说 这条线也许会变得更陡
15:14
These folks乡亲 are the moneyed富有的 interests利益 in Iran伊朗,
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这条线代表的是金钱利益集团
15:16
the bankers银行家, the oil people, the bazaariesbazaaries.
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银行家,石油集团,商人
15:20
They are growing生长 in political政治 clout影响力,
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他们的政治势力在扩大
15:23
as the mullahs毛拉 are isolating隔离 themselves他们自己 --
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而毛拉(伊斯兰神学家)们在孤立自己
15:26
with the exception例外 of one group of mullahs毛拉,
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除了美国人不太了解的
15:28
who are not well known已知 to Americans美国人.
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一类毛拉没有这样
15:30
That's this line线 here, growing生长 in power功率,
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他们就是这条线,他们的政治力量也在增长
15:32
these are what the Iranians伊朗人 call the quietists静修主义.
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这就是伊朗人所谓的“安静者”们
15:36
These are the Ayatollahs阿亚图拉, mostly大多 based基于 in Qom库姆,
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这些是在库姆(Qom)的阿亚图拉(伊斯兰教什叶派的最高宗教职衔),
15:39
who have great clout影响力 in the religious宗教 community社区,
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他们在伊朗宗教团体很有势力
15:43
have been quiet安静 on politics政治 and are going to be getting得到 louder,
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他们现在虽然很安静,他们的声音变得越来越大
15:46
because they see Iran伊朗 going in an unhealthy不良 direction方向,
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因为他们认为伊朗的发展方向不健康
15:48
a direction方向 contrary相反
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是与霍梅尼(伊朗1979革命精神领袖)构想
15:50
to what Khomeini霍梅尼 had in mind心神.
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的路线完全相反
15:54
Here is Mr先生. Ahmadinejad内贾德.
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这条线是内贾德先生
15:56
Two things to notice注意: he's getting得到 weaker较弱,
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注意两件事,一 他越来越弱
15:59
and while he gets得到 a lot of attention注意 in the United联合的 States状态,
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他在美国确实吸引了很多的注意
16:01
he is not a major重大的 player播放机 in Iran伊朗.
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但他在伊朗并不是一个主要人物
16:03
He is on the way down.
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他已在下坡路上
16:05
OK, so I'd like you to take a little away from this.
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好吧,这我们就说到这里
16:09
Everything is not predictable可预测: the stock股票 market市场
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并不是所有的事情都可以被预测,股票市场
16:11
is, at least最小 for me, not predictable可预测,
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至少对我来说,是不可预测的
16:14
but most complicated复杂 negotiations谈判 are predictable可预测.
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但是绝大多数的谈判是可以预测的
16:19
Again, whether是否 we're talking health健康 policy政策, education教育,
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再说一次, 无论是说医疗政策,教育政策
16:23
environment环境, energy能源,
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环境,能源政策
16:26
litigation诉讼, mergers兼并,
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诉讼,公司合并
16:28
all of these are complicated复杂 problems问题
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所有这些复杂的问题
16:30
that are predictable可预测,
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都是可以预测的
16:32
that this sort分类 of technology技术 can be applied应用的 to.
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都是适用这种技术的。
16:36
And the reason原因 that being存在 able能够 to predict预测 those things is important重要,
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我们可以去预测这些事情是很重要的
16:41
is not just because you might威力 run a hedge树篱 fund基金 and make money off of it,
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不仅仅因为你可以开个对冲基金来挣一大笔钱
16:44
but because if you can predict预测 what people will do,
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而是因为你可以去预测人类的行为
16:47
you can engineer工程师 what they will do.
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然后去操纵他们的行为
16:50
And if you engineer工程师 what they do you can change更改 the world世界,
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如果你可以操纵行为,那你就可以改变世界
16:52
you can get a better result结果.
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你可以得到一个更好的结果
16:54
I would like to leave离开 you with one thought, which哪一个 is
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我最终想说的一点是
16:57
for me, the dominant优势 theme主题 of this gathering搜集,
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对我来说,这次集会的宗旨就是
17:02
and is the dominant优势 theme主题 of this way of thinking思维 about the world世界.
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也就是应该是我们看待这个世界的宗旨
17:05
When people say to you,
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当有人说
17:08
"That's impossible不可能,"
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“这不可能”
17:10
you say back to them,
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你回应道
17:12
"When you say 'That's'那是 impossible不可能,'
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“当你说‘不可能’的时候”
17:14
you're confused困惑 with,
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你其实在说
17:16
'I don't know how to do it.'"
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“我不知道怎样去做”
17:19
Thank you.
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谢谢
17:21
(Applause掌声)
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鼓掌
17:25
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: One question for you.
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我有一个问题
17:27
That was fascinating迷人.
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那太让人着迷了
17:30
I love that you put it out there.
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我很喜欢你刚才讲的
17:33
I got very nervous紧张 halfway through通过 the talk though虽然,
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你说到一半的时候,我变得很紧张
17:35
just panicking恐慌 whether是否 you'd included包括 in your model模型, the possibility可能性 that
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在你的模型中, 你是否认为
17:38
putting this prediction预测 out there might威力 change更改 the result结果.
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公布你的预测可能会改变未来结果
17:42
We've我们已经 got 800 people in Tehran德黑兰 who watch TEDTalksTED演讲.
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我们在德黑兰有800个人在观看TEDTalks
17:45
Bruce布鲁斯 Bueno布埃诺 de Mesquita梅斯基塔: I've thought about that,
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我想过这个问题
17:47
and since以来 I've doneDONE a lot of work for the intelligence情报 community社区,
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因为我和情报机构进行了大量的工作
17:51
they've他们已经 also pondered沉吟 that.
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他们也想过这个问题
17:53
It would be a good thing if
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如果人人都投入更多的注意力
17:56
people paid支付 more attention注意, took seriously认真地,
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更加的重视它
17:59
and engaged订婚 in the same相同 sorts排序 of calculations计算,
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进行同样的计算预测
18:01
because it would change更改 things. But it would change更改 things in two beneficial有利 ways方法.
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我们可以改变很多的事情。 益处主要是两个方面的
18:05
It would hasten how quickly很快 people arrive到达 at an agreement协议,
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它可以催促人们达成一个协议
18:11
and so it would save保存 everybody每个人 a lot of grief哀思 and time.
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所以大家都可以省很多不必要悲伤和时间
18:14
And, it would arrive到达 at an agreement协议 that everybody每个人 was happy快乐 with,
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然后,这个种协议是皆大欢喜的
18:18
without having to manipulate操作 them so much --
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不用进行太多的操控
18:21
which哪一个 is basically基本上 what I do, I manipulate操作 them.
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那就是我所做的,操控结果
18:24
So it would be a good thing.
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所以,这是一个很好的东西
18:26
CACA: So you're kind of trying to say, "People of Iran伊朗, this is your destiny命运, lets让我们 go there."
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那么,你就是在试着说:“伊朗的人们, 这就是你的命运, 大家就这样做吧."
18:30
BBMBBM: Well, people of Iran伊朗, this is what many许多 of you are going to evolve发展 to want,
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我会说,伊朗的人们, 这就是你们期望达到的结果
18:36
and we could get there a lot sooner,
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我们可以更快的达成协议
18:38
and you would suffer遭受 a lot less trouble麻烦 from economic经济 sanctions制裁,
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你们可以少受一点经济制裁
18:41
and we would suffer遭受 a lot less fear恐惧 of the use of military军事 force on our end结束,
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我们可以少一点军事行动的恐惧
18:47
and the world世界 would be a better place地点.
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这个世界将会变得更加美好
18:49
CACA: Here's这里的 hoping希望 they hear it that way. Thank you very much Bruce布鲁斯.
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我们希望他们是这样认为的。谢谢你布鲁斯
18:52
BBMBBM: Thank you.
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谢谢
18:54
(Applause掌声)
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鼓掌
Translated by Weiyu Chen
Reviewed by dahong zhang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita - Political scientist
A consultant to the CIA and the Department of Defense, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has built an intricate computer model that can predict the outcomes of international conflicts with bewildering accuracy.

Why you should listen

Every motive has a number, says Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. A specialist in foreign policy, international relations and state building, he is also a leading -- if controversial -- scholar of rational choice theory, which says math underlies the nation-scale consequences of individuals acting for personal benefit. He created forecasting technology that has, time and again, exceeded the accuracy of old-school analysis, even with thorny quarrels charged by obscure contenders, and often against odds. (One example: He called the second Intifada two years in advance.)

Bueno de Mesquita's company, Mesquita & Roundell, sells his system's predictions and analysis to influential government and private institutions that need heads-ups on policy. He teaches at NYU and is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.

More profile about the speaker
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita | Speaker | TED.com