ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Streicker - Animal-borne disease researcher
Daniel Streicker investigates how everyday killer pathogens can provide insight into future outbreaks of infectious disease.

Why you should listen

Daniel Streicker uses ecology and evolution to reveal, anticipate and prevent infectious disease transmission between species. His research uses a range of approaches including longitudinal field studies in wild bats, phylodynamics, machine learning, metagenomicsand epidemiological modeling. In Peru, Streicker uses bat and virus genetics to connect bats' movements with the spread of rabies virus. With this technique, he and his team are able to forecast outbreaks before they begin, providing valuable lead times for governments to take preventative actions, such as vaccinating humans and livestock ahead of outbreaks.

Streicker is a Wellcome Trust senior research fellow and head of the Streicker Group at the University of Glasgow Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine and the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research.

More profile about the speaker
Daniel Streicker | Speaker | TED.com
TEDMED 2018

Daniel Streicker: What vaccinating vampire bats can teach us about pandemics

丹尼尔·斯特里克: 对抗流行病是如何受到吸血蝠疫苗接种的启发?

Filmed:
1,381,812 views

我们如何能够预测下一场疾病大爆发?如何在埃博拉之类的病毒袭击人类之前,阻止它的发生?在这个关于科技前沿的演讲中,生态学家丹尼尔·斯特里克(Daniel Streicker)带领我们前往秘鲁的亚马逊雨林。他在那里追踪吸血蝠的活动,以预测和预防狂犬病的爆发。 通过研究这些疾病模式,斯特里克向我们展示了如何学会从根源上遏制下一次疾病大流行。
- Animal-borne disease researcher
Daniel Streicker investigates how everyday killer pathogens can provide insight into future outbreaks of infectious disease. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
The story故事 that I'm going
to tell you today今天,
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今天我要讲的故事
对于我来说,始于 2006 年。
00:15
for me, began开始 back in 2006.
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00:17
That was when I first heard听说
about an outbreak暴发 of mysterious神秘 illness疾病
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那是我第一次听到秘鲁亚马逊雨林
00:21
that was happening事件 in the Amazon亚马逊
rainforest雨林 of Peru秘鲁.
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正在上演一场神秘疾病的大爆发。
00:24
The people that were getting得到 sick生病
from this illness疾病,
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因为这个疾病,人们开始感到不适。
00:27
they had horrifying可怕的 symptoms症状, nightmarish噩梦.
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他们出现了噩梦般的可怕症状;
00:29
They had unbelievable难以置信的 headaches头痛,
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经历着难以忍受的的头痛,
00:31
they couldn't不能 eat or drink.
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难以喝水进食。
00:33
Some of them were even hallucinating幻觉 --
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他们有的甚至产生了幻觉——
00:35
confused困惑 and aggressive侵略性.
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变得困惑与激进。
00:36
The most tragic悲惨 part部分 of all
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最让人心碎的是,
00:39
was that many许多 of the victims受害者
were children孩子.
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大部分的病患是儿童。
00:41
And of all of those that got sick生病,
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而且所有这些病患,
00:43
none没有 survived幸存.
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无人幸存。
00:46
It turned转身 out that what was killing谋杀
people was a virus病毒,
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最后事实证明是
一种病毒杀害了那些人,
00:49
but it wasn't Ebola埃博拉病毒, it wasn't Zika兹卡,
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但不是埃博拉,也不是寨卡,
00:51
it wasn't even some new virus病毒
never before seen看到 by science科学.
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它甚至不是科学家
前所未闻的新病毒。
00:55
These people were dying垂死
of an ancient killer凶手,
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这些病患的离去
是由一种古老的杀手造成的,
00:57
one that we've我们已经 known已知 about for centuries百年.
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一种在几百年前就知晓的的病毒。
01:00
They were dying垂死 of rabies狂犬病.
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病患们死于狂犬病。
01:02
And what all of them had in common共同
was that as they slept,
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他们的一个共同点是,
在睡觉时,都被一种
仅以嗜血为生的哺乳动物给咬了:
01:06
they'd他们会 all been bitten被咬 by the only mammal哺乳动物
that lives生活 exclusively on a diet饮食 of blood血液:
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01:10
the vampire吸血鬼 bat蝙蝠.
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吸血蝠。
01:13
These sorts排序 of outbreaks爆发
that jump from bats蝙蝠 into people,
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这类疾病的大爆发
从蝙蝠转移到了人,
01:16
they've他们已经 become成为 more and more common共同
in the last couple一对 of decades几十年.
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在过去几十年中已经变得越发普遍。
01:19
In 2003, it was SARSSARS.
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在 2003 年,是非典。
01:20
It showed显示 up in Chinese中文 animal动物 markets市场
and spread传播 globally全球.
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它首现于中国动物市场,并肆虐全球。
01:24
That virus病毒, like the one from Peru秘鲁,
was eventually终于 traced追踪 back to bats蝙蝠,
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那病毒,就像是秘鲁的那个一样,
最终被追溯到蝙蝠,
01:28
which哪一个 have probably大概 harbored怀着 it,
undetected未被发现, for centuries百年.
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它们可能已经藏匿该病毒
长达几百年,却从未被发现。
01:32
Then, 10 years年份 later后来, we see Ebola埃博拉病毒
showing展示 up in West西 Africa非洲,
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10 年后,我们看到
埃博拉出现在西非,
01:36
and that surprised诧异 just about everybody每个人
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这震惊了所有人,
01:38
because, according根据
to the science科学 at the time,
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因为根据当时的科学表明,
01:40
Ebola埃博拉病毒 wasn't really supposed应该
to be in West西 Africa非洲.
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埃博拉不应该出现在西非。
01:44
That ended结束 up causing造成 the largest最大
and most widespread广泛 Ebola埃博拉病毒 outbreak暴发
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但它却导致了史上
传播最广,规模最大的
01:47
in history历史.
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埃博拉病毒爆发。
01:49
So there's a disturbing烦扰的 trend趋势 here, right?
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这是一个令人不安的趋势,对吧?
01:52
Deadly致命 viruses病毒 are appearing出现 in places地方
where we can't really expect期望 them,
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致命的病毒正出现于
我们无法真正预期的地方。
01:56
and as a global全球 health健康 community社区,
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而作为全球健康社区,
01:57
we're caught抓住 on our heels脚跟.
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我们一直在忙于应对。
01:59
We're constantly经常 chasing
after the next下一个 viral病毒 emergency
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我们一直在追逐下一个
02:02
in this perpetual永动的 cycle周期,
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病毒带来的紧急情况,
02:04
always trying to extinguish扑灭 epidemics流行病
after they've他们已经 already已经 started开始.
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总是在疫情已经开始蔓延后,
努力消灭它们。
02:08
So with new diseases疾病 appearing出现 every一切 year,
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随着每年新疾病的出现,
02:11
now is really the time
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现在,
真的是需要开始思考
我们能为之做什么的时候了。
02:13
that we need to start开始 thinking思维
about what we can do about it.
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如果我们仅仅等着
下一个埃博拉的出现,
02:15
If we just wait for the next下一个
Ebola埃博拉病毒 to happen发生,
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02:18
we might威力 not be so lucky幸运 next下一个 time.
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那时,我们可能就不会这么幸运了。
02:20
We might威力 face面对 a different不同 virus病毒,
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我们可能面对着一个不同的病毒,
02:22
one that's more deadly致命,
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一个更加致命的病毒,
02:23
one that spreads利差 better among其中 people,
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一个人类间传播能力更强的病毒,
02:26
or maybe one that just completely全然
outwitsoutwits our vaccines疫苗,
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或可能是效力完全胜于疫苗,
02:29
leaving离开 us defenseless手无寸铁.
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让我们束手无策的病毒。
02:31
So can we anticipate预料 pandemics流行病?
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那么我们可以预测疾病大流行吗?
02:34
Can we stop them?
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我们能够阻止它们吗?
02:36
Those are really hard questions问题 to answer回答,
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这些是非常难以回答的问题,
02:39
and the reason原因 is that the pandemics流行病 --
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而其中的原因是大流行——
02:42
the ones那些 that spread传播 globally全球,
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那些传播于全球的流行病,
02:44
the ones那些 that we really
want to anticipate预料 --
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那些我们非常想要去
预测的流行病——
02:46
they're actually其实 really rare罕见 events事件.
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它们实际上是罕见事件。
02:48
And for us as a species种类
that is a good thing --
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对于我们,作为一个物种,
是一件好事——
02:50
that's why we're all here.
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这就是为何我们都在这里。
02:53
But from a scientific科学 standpoint立场,
it's a little bit of a problem问题.
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但从科学角度来看,
这是有一些问题的。
02:58
That's because if something
happens发生 just once一旦 or twice两次,
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因为一件事如果只发生一两次,
那就真的不足以发现任何规律,
03:01
that's really not enough足够
to find any patterns模式.
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可以告诉我们何时或何地
下一场流行病毒可能发生的规律。
03:03
Patterns模式 that could tell us when
or where the next下一个 pandemic流感大流行 might威力 strike罢工.
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03:08
So what do we do?
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那么我们该怎么做?
03:10
Well, I think one of the solutions解决方案
we may可能 have is to study研究 some viruses病毒
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我认为其中一个解决方案就是,
我们可能可以研究一些
03:14
that routinely常规 jump from wild野生
animals动物 into people,
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常规性从野生动物
传播到人身上的病毒,
03:18
or into our pets宠物, or our livestock家畜,
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或到我们宠物、牲畜的病毒,
即使它们和我们认为
03:21
even if they're not the same相同 viruses病毒
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造成大流行的病毒不同,
03:23
that we think are going
to cause原因 pandemics流行病.
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03:26
If we can use
those everyday每天 killer凶手 viruses病毒
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如果我们可以利用那些日常杀手病毒
03:28
to work out some of the patterns模式
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来找到一些规律,
03:30
of what drives驱动器 that initial初始, crucial关键 jump
from one species种类 to the next下一个,
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例如是什么驱动了最初的
病毒的物种间转移,
03:34
and, potentially可能, how we might威力 stop it,
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以及,我们可能如何阻止转移的发生,
03:36
then we're going to end结束 up better prepared准备
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这样为应对未来
更小概率的物种间转移,
03:38
for those viruses病毒 that jump
between之间 species种类 more rarely很少
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但对大流行造成更大威胁的病毒,
03:41
but pose提出 a greater更大 threat威胁 of pandemics流行病.
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我们将做出更加充分的准备。
03:44
Now, rabies狂犬病, as terrible可怕 as it is,
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然而如此可怕的狂犬病毒,
03:47
turns out to be a pretty漂亮 nice不错
virus病毒 in this case案件.
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事实证明已经是比较“友善”的了。
大家都知道,狂犬病毒多么
令人闻声色变,它是致命的,
03:52
You see, rabies狂犬病 is a scary害怕, deadly致命 virus病毒.
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03:55
It has 100 percent百分 fatality病死率.
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且具有百分百的死亡率。
03:57
That means手段 if you get infected感染 with rabies狂犬病
and you don't get treated治疗 early,
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这意味着如果你被它感染,
而且没尽早接受治疗,
04:01
there's nothing that can be doneDONE.
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那你就会走投无路。
04:02
There is no cure治愈.
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无药可治,
04:04
You will die.
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你必死无疑。
04:06
And rabies狂犬病 is not just
a problem问题 of the past过去 either.
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此外,狂犬病毒不仅是
一个历史问题。
04:10
Even today今天, rabies狂犬病 still kills杀死
50 to 60,000 people every一切 year.
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甚至在今天,该病毒每年
仍能杀死 5 - 6 万人。
04:16
Just put that number in some perspective透视.
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换个角度看看这个数字。
04:19
Imagine想像 the whole整个 West西 African非洲人
Ebola埃博拉病毒 outbreak暴发 --
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想象整个西非的
埃博拉疫情爆发——
04:21
about two-and-a-half两个半 years年份;
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持续了大约 2 年至 2 年半,
04:23
you condense凝结 all the people
that died死亡 in that outbreak暴发
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把所有在疫情爆发中死亡的人数
压缩到一年。
04:26
into just a single year.
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这听起来蛮糟糕的。
04:27
That's pretty漂亮 bad.
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04:28
But then, you multiply it by four,
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但你再把这数字乘以 4,
04:30
and that's what happens发生
with rabies狂犬病 every一切 single year.
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就是每一年狂犬病疫情的情况。
04:35
So what sets rabies狂犬病 apart距离
from a virus病毒 like Ebola埃博拉病毒
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让狂犬病毒
有别于埃博拉病毒的是,
04:40
is that when people get it,
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当人们被病毒感染时,
04:42
they tend趋向 not to spread传播 it onward向前.
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往往不会继续传播给其他人。
04:44
That means手段 that every一切 single time
a person gets得到 rabies狂犬病,
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这意味着每次当一个人
接触到狂犬病病毒,
04:48
it's because they were bitten被咬
by a rabid疯狂的 animal动物,
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都是因为他们被
携带狂犬病的动物咬了,
04:51
and usually平时, that's a dog or a bat蝙蝠.
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通常是狗或蝙蝠。
04:53
But it also means手段 that those jumps跳跃
between之间 species种类,
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但这也意味着我们
对于那些物种间传播的病毒
04:56
which哪一个 are so important重要 to understand理解,
but so rare罕见 for most viruses病毒,
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的理解认知是如此重要,
但对大部分病毒来说却又如此罕见。
05:00
for rabies狂犬病, they're actually其实
happening事件 by the thousands数千.
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然而对狂犬病毒来说,
物种间传播是非常频繁的。
05:04
So in a way, rabies狂犬病
is almost几乎 like the fruit水果 fly
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所以从某种程度上,
狂犬病毒就好比果蝇,
05:08
or the lab实验室 mouse老鼠 of deadly致命 viruses病毒.
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或是携带致命病毒的实验室老鼠。
05:11
This is a virus病毒 that we can use
and study研究 to find patterns模式
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这是一种我们可以用来研究
以找寻规律的病毒,
05:15
and potentially可能 test测试 out new solutions解决方案.
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有可能帮助我们找到新的解决方案。
05:17
And so, when I first heard听说
about that outbreak暴发 of rabies狂犬病
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所以,当我第一次听到秘鲁亚马逊的
05:20
in the Peruvian秘鲁 Amazon亚马逊,
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狂犬病大爆发,
05:22
it struck来袭 me as something
potentially可能 powerful强大
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我惊讶于这潜在的、
如此强大的威力,
05:24
because this was a virus病毒 that was jumping跳跃
from bats蝙蝠 into other animals动物
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因为这是个能够
从蝙蝠转移到其它动物身上的病毒,
05:27
often经常 enough足够 that we might威力
be able能够 to anticipate预料 it ...
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通常我们可能足以预见它……
05:31
Maybe even stop it.
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甚至可能阻止它。
05:33
So as a first-year第一年 graduate毕业 student学生
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因此,作为一个研一学生,
05:35
with a vague模糊 memory记忆
of my high school学校 Spanish西班牙语 class,
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带着自己模糊的高中西语课记忆,
05:38
I jumped跳下 onto a plane平面
and flew off to Peru秘鲁,
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我跳上了飞机,飞往秘鲁,
05:41
looking for vampire吸血鬼 bats蝙蝠.
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寻找吸血蝠。
05:42
And the first couple一对 of years年份
of this project项目 were really tough强硬.
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这个项目的最初几年真的很艰难。
05:48
I had no shortage短缺 of ambitious有雄心 plans计划
to rid摆脱 Latin拉丁 America美国 of rabies狂犬病,
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我不乏消灭拉丁美洲
狂犬病毒的雄心壮志,
05:52
but at the same相同 time,
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但与此同时,
05:53
there seemed似乎 to be an equally一样 endless无穷
supply供应 of mudslides泥石流 and flat平面 tires轮胎,
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我还不断遇到
无止尽的泥石流和爆胎,
05:57
power功率 outages停电, stomach bugs虫子
all stopping停止 me.
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停电以及胃病,
都在阻碍我的进程。
06:01
But that was kind of par平价 for the course课程,
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但这在南美洲
06:03
working加工 in South America美国,
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都是意料之中的,
06:04
and to me, it was part部分 of the adventure冒险.
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与我而言,也是探险的一部分。
06:08
But what kept不停 me going
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让我坚持下去的
06:10
was the knowledge知识 that for the first time,
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是第一次知道
自己手头的工作也许确实能
06:12
the work that I was doing
might威力 actually其实 have some real真实 impact碰撞
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在短期对人们的生活产生实际影响。
06:15
on people's人们 lives生活 in the short term术语.
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06:17
And that struck来袭 me the most
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令我最震惊的是,
06:18
when we actually其实 went out to the Amazon亚马逊
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我们真正步入亚马逊
06:21
and were trying to catch抓住 vampire吸血鬼 bats蝙蝠.
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并亲自尝试着抓捕吸血蝠。
06:23
You see, all we had to do was show显示 up
at a village and ask around.
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我们要做的就是
去往村庄,四处询问。
06:27
"Who's谁是 been getting得到 bitten被咬
by a bat蝙蝠 lately最近?"
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“谁最近被蝙蝠咬了?”
06:29
And people raised上调 their hands,
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之后人们举起他们的手,
06:31
because in these communities社区,
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因为在这个社区,
06:34
getting得到 bitten被咬 by a bat蝙蝠
is an everyday每天 occurrence发生,
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被蝙蝠咬是家常便饭,
06:36
happens发生 every一切 day.
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每天都在发生。
06:38
And so all we had to do
was go to the right house,
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所以我们要做的是去正确的家庭,
06:41
open打开 up a net
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布网,
06:43
and show显示 up at night,
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夜间拜访,
06:44
and wait until直到 the bats蝙蝠 tried试着
to fly in and feed饲料 on human人的 blood血液.
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并等待蝙蝠前来准备吸人血。
06:49
So to me, seeing眼看 a child儿童 with a bite wound伤口
on his head or blood血液 stains on his sheets床单,
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对我而言,看着一个孩子
头被咬伤,或他床单上的血迹,
06:54
that was more than enough足够 motivation动机
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就是能让我忘却任何路途困难
与身体不适的动力,继续工作。
06:56
to get past过去 whatever随你 logistical后勤
or physical物理 headache头痛
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06:59
I happened发生 to be feeling感觉 on that day.
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那天碰巧是这样。
07:02
Since以来 we were working加工
all night long, though虽然,
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尽管我们经常整夜都在工作,
我仍然会抽时间思考
要如何解决这个问题,
07:05
I had plenty丰富 of time to think about
how I might威力 actually其实 solve解决 this problem问题,
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07:08
and it stood站在 out to me
that there were two burning燃烧 questions问题.
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然而在我看来,
尚有两个亟待解决的问题。
07:11
The first was that we know
that people are bitten被咬 all the time,
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第一个是我们知道人们总是被咬,
07:15
but rabies狂犬病 outbreaks爆发
aren't happening事件 all the time --
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但是狂犬病并非总是爆发——
07:18
every一切 couple一对 of years年份,
maybe even every一切 decade,
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每隔几年,甚至可能每隔十年,
07:20
you get a rabies狂犬病 outbreak暴发.
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爆发一次。
07:22
So if we could somehow不知何故 anticipate预料
when and where the next下一个 outbreak暴发 would be,
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因此,如果我们能够
预测下一次爆发的时间地点,
07:26
that would be a real真实 opportunity机会,
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那将会是一个极佳的机会,
07:27
meaning含义 we could vaccinate接种疫苗
people ahead of time,
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意味着我们可以在
任何人受到疫情折磨前,
07:30
before anybody任何人 starts启动 dying垂死.
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给大家注射疫苗。
07:32
But the other side of that coin硬币
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但是同时,
07:34
is that vaccination疫苗接种
is really just a Band-Aid创可贴.
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疫苗是否只能充当一张创可贴,
07:38
It's kind of a strategy战略 of damage损伤 control控制.
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作为一种控制伤害的策略。
07:40
Of course课程 it's lifesaving救生 and important重要
and we have to do it,
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当然,这能挽救生命,
也很重要,我们要做这件事,
07:43
but at the end结束 of the day,
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但归根结底,
07:44
no matter how many许多 cows奶牛,
how many许多 people we vaccinate接种疫苗,
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不论我们给多少头牛、
多少个人接种疫苗,
07:47
we're still going to have exactly究竟 the same相同
amount of rabies狂犬病 up there in the bats蝙蝠.
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蝙蝠身上始终
将携带同样数量的狂犬病毒。
07:51
The actual实际 risk风险 of getting得到 bitten被咬
hasn't有没有 changed at all.
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被蝙蝠咬伤的实际风险
并没有任何改变。
07:53
So my second第二 question was this:
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所以,我的第二个问题就是:
07:55
Could we somehow不知何故
cut the virus病毒 off at its source资源?
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我们能否从源头消灭这些病毒?
07:59
If we could somehow不知何故 reduce减少 the amount
of rabies狂犬病 in the bats蝙蝠 themselves他们自己,
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如果我们多少能降低
蝙蝠自身携带狂犬病毒的数量,
08:02
then that would be a real真实 game游戏 changer.
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这将会真正逆转现状。
08:04
We'd星期三 been talking about shifting
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我们一直在说
08:06
from a strategy战略 of damage损伤 control控制
to one based基于 on prevention预防.
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要从伤害控制转变成预防的策略。
08:10
So, how do we begin开始 to do that?
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那么,我们如何开始做这件事?
08:13
Well, the first thing
we needed需要 to understand理解
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第一件我们需要了解
这个病毒是如何
在它的天然宿主——
08:15
was how this virus病毒 actually其实 works作品
in its natural自然 host主办 --
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08:18
in the bats蝙蝠.
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即蝙蝠体内生存的。
08:19
And that is a tall order订购
for any infectious传染病 disease疾病,
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这对于任何传染病来说
都是一项艰巨的任务,
08:21
particularly尤其 one in a reclusive深居简出
species种类 like bats蝙蝠,
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尤其是对于蝙蝠这样的隐居物种,
08:25
but we had to start开始 somewhere某处.
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但我们必须找到入手点。
08:28
So the way we started开始
was looking at some historical历史的 data数据.
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于是我们最先查看了一些历史数据:
08:31
When and where had these outbreaks爆发
happened发生 in the past过去?
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这些大爆发曾经发生在何时何地?
08:35
And it became成为 clear明确
that rabies狂犬病 was a virus病毒
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我们也逐渐明确了
狂犬病毒必须要
08:37
that just had to be on the move移动.
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不断转移宿主,
它们无法保持不动。
08:39
It couldn't不能 sit still.
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08:41
The virus病毒 might威力 circulate流通 in one area
for a year, maybe two,
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病毒可能在一个地区
传播一年,或两年,
08:44
but unless除非 it found发现 a new group of bats蝙蝠
to infect感染 somewhere某处 else其他,
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除非它能找到新蝙蝠群,
传播到别的地方,
08:47
it was pretty漂亮 much bound to go extinct绝种.
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否则就会自然灭绝。
08:50
So with that, we solved解决了 one key part部分
of the rabies狂犬病 transmission传输 challenge挑战.
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根据这点,我们解决了
一个狂犬病毒传播挑战的关键部分。
08:55
We knew知道 we were dealing交易
with a virus病毒 on the move移动,
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我们知道我们在与
不断转移的病毒打交道,
08:58
but we still couldn't不能 say
where it was going.
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但我们仍旧不知道
它会传播到哪里去。
09:01
Essentially实质上, what I wanted was
more of a Google谷歌 Maps-style地图样式 prediction预测,
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我想要一个类似
谷歌地图的预测图,
09:05
which哪一个 is, "What's
the destination目的地 of the virus病毒?
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能告诉我 “病毒的目的地在哪里?
09:07
What's the route路线 it's going
to take to get there?
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它们去目的地的路径是什么?
09:10
How fast快速 will it move移动?"
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速度有多快?”
09:13
To do that, I turned转身
to the genomes基因组 of rabies狂犬病.
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于是我转去研究狂犬病毒基因组。
09:17
You see, rabies狂犬病, like many许多 other viruses病毒,
has a tiny little genome基因组,
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狂犬病毒和许多其他病毒一样,
有一个很小的基因组,
09:21
but one that evolves演变
really, really quickly很快.
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但是它进化得非常非常快。
09:23
So quickly很快 that by the time the virus病毒
has moved移动 from one point to the next下一个,
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快到在病毒从一个地点
转移到另一个的时候,
09:28
it's going to have picked采摘的 up
a couple一对 of new mutations突变.
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它就会经历几次新突变。
09:31
And so all we have to do
is kind of connect the dots
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因此,我们要做的
09:33
across横过 an evolutionary发展的 tree,
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就是连结那些进化树上的点,
09:35
and that's going to tell us
where the virus病毒 has been in the past过去
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这会告诉我们
这个病毒曾经去过哪里,
又是如何传播的。
09:38
and how it spread传播 across横过 the landscape景观.
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1903
09:40
So, I went out and I collected cow brains大脑,
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所以我出门收集了牛脑,
09:44
because that's where
you get rabies狂犬病 viruses病毒.
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因为这是你能找到狂犬病毒的地方。
09:47
And from genome基因组 sequences序列 that we got
from the viruses病毒 in those cow brains大脑,
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从牛脑病毒中获取的基因序列中,
09:52
I was able能够 to work out
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1151
我发现
这是一个每年能够
传播 10-20 英里的病毒。
09:53
that this is a virus病毒 that spreads利差
between之间 10 and 20 miles英里 each year.
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09:57
OK, so that means手段 we do now have
the speed速度 limit限制 of the virus病毒,
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3957
所以这说明我们
现在有了病毒的传播限速,
10:01
but still missing失踪 that other key part部分
of where is it going in the first place地点.
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但依旧缺失其他关键部分,
例如它们首先向什么地方传播。
10:06
For that, I needed需要 to think
a little bit more like a bat蝙蝠,
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要解决这个问题,
我需要用蝙蝠的思维来思考,
10:10
because rabies狂犬病 is a virus病毒 --
212
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因为狂犬病毒是一个病毒——
不依靠自身传播,
10:12
it doesn't move移动 by itself本身,
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1239
10:13
it has to be moved移动 around by its bat蝙蝠 host主办,
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必须围绕在蝙蝠宿主身边,
10:16
so I needed需要 to think about
how far to fly and how often经常 to fly.
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3979
所以我需要思考这个病毒
传播的距离和频率。
10:20
My imagination想像力 didn't get me
all that far with this
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我的想象力不够回答这些问题,
10:23
and neither也不 did little digital数字 trackers跟踪器
that we first tried试着 putting on bats蝙蝠.
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我们第一次尝试安装在蝙蝠上的
小型数字追踪器也没有答案。
我们就是无法获取所需信息。
10:26
We just couldn't不能 get
the information信息 we needed需要.
218
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2334
于是,我们转向蝙蝠
交配模式的研究。
10:29
So instead代替, we turned转身
to the mating交配 patterns模式 of bats蝙蝠.
219
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2651
10:32
We could look at certain某些 parts部分
of the bat蝙蝠 genome基因组,
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我们观察蝙蝠基因组的特定片段,
10:34
and they were telling告诉 us that some
groups of bats蝙蝠 were mating交配 with each other
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知道了有些蝙蝠群会相互交配,
10:37
and others其他 were more isolated孤立.
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但是有的比较孤立。
10:39
And the virus病毒 was basically基本上 following以下
the trail落后 laid铺设 out by the bat蝙蝠 genomes基因组.
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狂犬病毒基本上遵循了
蝙蝠基因组的踪迹。
10:44
Yet然而 one of those trails步道 stood站在 out
as being存在 a little bit surprising奇怪 --
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但其中的一个踪迹与众不同,
10:48
hard to believe.
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1150
令人惊讶且难以置信。
10:50
That was one that seemed似乎 to cross交叉
straight直行 over the Peruvian秘鲁 Andes安第斯山脉,
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那个踪迹似乎径直
跨越了秘鲁安第斯山脉,
10:53
crossing路口 from the Amazon亚马逊
to the Pacific和平的 coast,
227
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从亚马逊穿越到太平洋海岸,
10:56
and that was kind of hard to believe,
228
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2417
这就是我说的
10:58
as I said,
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难以置信,
因为安第斯山脉海拔很高——
大约6700米,
11:01
because the Andes安第斯山脉 are really tall --
about 22,000 feet,
230
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3222
11:04
and that's way too high
for a vampire吸血鬼 to fly.
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2566
是吸血蝠几乎不可能飞越的高度。
11:08
Yet然而 --
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但是——
(笑声)
11:09
(Laughter笑声)
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当我们仔细观察后,
11:10
when we looked看着 more closely密切,
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我们看到对于河岸两边
11:11
we saw, in the northern北方 part部分 of Peru秘鲁,
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1803
11:13
a network网络 of valley systems系统
that was not quite相当 too tall
236
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3607
想要互相交配的蝙蝠来说,
11:17
for the bats蝙蝠 on either side
to be mating交配 with each other.
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秘鲁北部的一系列
峡谷流域海拔还不算太高。
11:20
And we looked看着 a little bit more closely密切 --
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我们又观察得更加仔细了一点——
没错,所有那些流域
都有狂犬病毒的传播,
11:22
sure enough足够, there's rabies狂犬病
spreading传播 through通过 those valleys山谷,
239
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11:24
just about 10 miles英里 each year.
240
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1665
每年 10 英里。
11:26
Basically基本上, exactly究竟 as our evolutionary发展的
models楷模 had predicated预测 it would be.
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3475
基本上正如我们
的进化模型预测的那样。
11:30
What I didn't tell you
242
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1174
我没有告诉你们的
11:31
is that that's actually其实
kind of an important重要 thing
243
679729
2404
是这件事的重要性,
11:34
because rabies狂犬病 had never been seen看到 before
on the western西 slopes连续下坡 of the Andes安第斯山脉,
244
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因为狂犬病从未在
安第斯山脉的西坡出现,
11:37
or on the whole整个 Pacific和平的 coast
of South America美国,
245
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或是整个南非的太平洋海岸,
11:40
so we were actually其实 witnessing见证,
in real真实 time, a historical历史的 first invasion侵入
246
688695
4026
所以我们实际上在亲眼目睹
一场实时的,历史首现的入侵,
11:44
into a pretty漂亮 big part部分 of South America美国,
247
692745
2951
对相当大面积南美洲的入侵。
11:47
which哪一个 raises加薪 the key question:
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这就引出了一个关键问题:
11:49
"What are we going to do about that?"
249
697173
2010
“我们应该做什么来应对入侵?”
11:51
Well, the obvious明显 short-term短期
thing we can do is tell people:
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3306
我们在短期明确可以做的
就是告诉大家:
11:55
you need to vaccinate接种疫苗 yourselves你自己,
vaccinate接种疫苗 your animals动物;
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你需要给自己接种疫苗,
以及你的宠物也是,
11:57
rabies狂犬病 is coming未来.
252
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1200
狂犬病毒马上要传播到这里了。
11:59
But in the longer term术语,
253
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但是长远来说,
12:00
it would be even more powerful强大
if we could use that new information信息
254
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如果能够利用新的研究成果
来阻止病毒入侵,
12:04
to stop the virus病毒
from arriving到达 altogether.
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这会使我们变得更加强大。
12:07
Of course课程, we can't just tell bats蝙蝠,
"Don't fly today今天,"
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3187
当然,我们不能和蝙蝠说:
“今天不要飞。”
12:11
but maybe we could stop the virus病毒
from hitching拴马 a ride along沿 with the bat蝙蝠.
257
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3594
但我们或许可以阻止病毒
在蝙蝠身上的搭便车行为。
12:16
And that brings带来 us to the key lesson
that we have learned学到了
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724347
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我们从全球狂犬病毒管理项目中
12:19
from rabies-management狂犬病管理 programs程式
all around the world世界,
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所学到的最重要的一堂课,
12:22
whether是否 it's dogs小狗, foxes狐狸,
skunks臭 鼬, raccoons浣熊,
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就是不论狗、狐狸、
臭鼬还是浣熊,
12:26
North America美国, Africa非洲, Europe欧洲.
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在北美,非洲还是欧洲,
12:29
It's that vaccinating接种疫苗 the animal动物 source资源
is the only thing that stops停止 rabies狂犬病.
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动物源的疫苗接种都是
唯一能够消除狂犬病毒的方法。
12:34
So, can we vaccinate接种疫苗 bats蝙蝠?
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那么,我们能给蝙蝠接种疫苗吗?
12:38
You hear about vaccinating接种疫苗 dogs小狗
and cats all the time,
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你们都听说过给猫狗接种疫苗,
12:41
but you don't hear too much
about vaccinating接种疫苗 bats蝙蝠.
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但是肯定没怎么听过
给蝙蝠接种疫苗。
12:44
It might威力 sound声音 like a crazy question,
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这问题可能听起来有点疯狂,
12:46
but the good news新闻 is that we actually其实
already已经 have edible食用 rabies狂犬病 vaccines疫苗
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但有一个好消息,
我们已经有专门为蝙蝠设计的
12:51
that are specially特别 designed设计 for bats蝙蝠.
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可食用狂犬病疫苗。
12:54
And what's even better
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更妙的是,
12:55
is that these vaccines疫苗
can actually其实 spread传播 from bat蝙蝠 to bat蝙蝠.
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这些疫苗可以阻止
病毒在蝙蝠间传播。
13:00
All you have to do is smear涂抹 it on one
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你所要做的就是
将疫苗涂抹在一只蝙蝠上,
13:02
and let the bats'蝙蝠' habit习惯
of grooming梳洗 each other
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之后让它们
相互梳理绒毛的习惯
帮助你完成剩下的工作。
13:05
take care关心 of the rest休息 of the work for you.
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773212
2005
13:07
So that means手段, at the very least最小,
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所以这意味着,至少
13:09
we don't have to be out there vaccinating接种疫苗
millions百万 of bats蝙蝠 one by one
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我们不需要用小小的注射器
去外面把上百万只蝙蝠
13:12
with tiny little syringes注射器.
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一只只抓来接种疫苗。
13:14
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
13:15
But just because we have that tool工具
doesn't mean we know how to use it.
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但工具的存在并不代表
我们知道如何使用它。
13:19
Now we have a whole整个 laundry洗衣店
list名单 of questions问题.
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2355
现在我们有一箩筐的问题。
13:21
How many许多 bats蝙蝠 do we need to vaccinate接种疫苗?
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2096
我们需要给多少蝙蝠接种疫苗?
13:23
What time of the year
do we need to be vaccinating接种疫苗?
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一年中的什么时候,
我们需要开始接种?
13:26
How many许多 times a year
do we need to be vaccinating接种疫苗?
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一年总共需要接种几次?
13:30
All of these are questions问题
that are really fundamental基本的
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所有的这些问题都是
开展任何预防接种运动
最基本的问题,
13:32
to rolling压延 out any sort分类
of vaccination疫苗接种 campaign运动,
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2243
13:34
but they're questions问题
that we can't answer回答 in the laboratory实验室.
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2858
但这些恰恰是我们在实验室中
无法解答的问题。
13:37
So instead代替, we're taking服用
a slightly more colorful华美 approach途径.
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于是,我们正在尝试
一个稍许更加有趣的方法。
13:41
We're using运用 real真实 wild野生 bats蝙蝠,
but fake vaccines疫苗.
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使用真正的野生蝙蝠,
但接种的是假疫苗。
13:45
We use edible食用 gels凝胶 that make bat蝙蝠 hair头发 glow辉光
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813795
2416
我们用可食用凝胶使蝙蝠毛发发光,
13:48
and UVUV powders粉末 that spread传播 between之间
bats蝙蝠 when they bump磕碰 into each other,
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816235
3603
以及蝙蝠在彼此碰撞时
能得以传播的紫外光粉末,
13:51
and that's letting出租 us study研究
how well a real真实 vaccine疫苗 might威力 spread传播
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819862
3039
这使我们能够研究真正的疫苗
在这些野生蝙蝠群体中的
潜在的传播有效性。
13:54
in these wild野生 colonies群落 of bats蝙蝠.
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2030
13:57
We're still in the earliest最早
phases of this work,
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825908
2343
我们依旧处于这个项目的初期阶段,
14:00
but our results结果 so far
are incredibly令人难以置信 encouraging鼓舞人心的.
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2437
可至今我们的成果非常鼓舞人心。
14:03
They're suggesting提示 that using运用
the vaccines疫苗 that we already已经 have,
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3096
结果表明,使用我们已经拥有的疫苗,
14:06
we could potentially可能 drastically大幅 reduce减少
the size尺寸 of rabies狂犬病 outbreaks爆发.
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很有可能可以极大地
缩减狂犬病爆发的规模。
14:10
And that matters事项, because as you remember记得,
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838637
2802
这很重要,因为就如刚才所说,
14:13
rabies狂犬病 is a virus病毒 that always
has to be on the move移动,
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841463
2780
狂犬病毒是一种
经常需要变换宿主的病毒,
14:16
and so every一切 time we reduce减少
the size尺寸 of an outbreak暴发,
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3115
所以我们每一次对爆发规模的削弱,
14:19
we're also reducing减少 the chance机会
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847406
1461
都在降低
14:20
that the virus病毒 makes品牌 it
onto the next下一个 colony殖民地.
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2245
病毒入侵下一个种群的可能性,
14:23
We're breaking破坏 a link链接
in the chain of transmission传输.
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2495
都在打破传播链的一个环节。
14:26
And so every一切 time we do that,
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854289
1592
因此每一次,
14:27
we're bringing使 the virus病毒
one step closer接近 to extinction灭绝.
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855905
2877
我们都让该病毒距离灭亡更进一步。
14:30
And so the thought, for me,
of a world世界 in the not-too-distant不太远 future未来
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858806
4712
不远的将来,世界将会
永远免于任何狂犬病毒侵扰的想法,
14:35
where we're actually其实 talking
about getting得到 rid摆脱 of rabies狂犬病 altogether,
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863542
3271
对我来说
是极其鼓舞人心且令人激动的。
14:38
that is incredibly令人难以置信
encouraging鼓舞人心的 and exciting扣人心弦.
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866837
2071
14:41
So let me return返回 to the original原版的 question.
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2164
那么让我回到最初的问题。
14:43
Can we prevent避免 pandemics流行病?
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1484
我们能够预防疾病大流行吗?
14:46
Well, there is no silver-bullet银子弹
solution to this problem问题,
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874119
4100
这个问题没有彻底
且完美的解决方案,
14:50
but my experiences经验 with rabies狂犬病
have left me pretty漂亮 optimistic乐观 about it.
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3435
但是我对于狂犬病毒的经验
让我对这个问题持乐观态度。
14:54
I think we're not too far from a future未来
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882282
1993
我认为我们离那个未来不是太远,
14:56
where we're going to have genomics基因组学
to forecast预测 outbreaks爆发
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3643
一个利用基因组学预测疫情爆发
14:59
and we're going to have clever聪明
new technologies技术,
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2405
和拥有智能新技术的未来,
15:02
like edible食用, self-spreading自我传播 vaccines疫苗,
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890395
2904
例如可食用,可自行传播的疫苗,
15:05
that can get rid摆脱 of these
viruses病毒 at their source资源
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2289
能够在这些病毒有机会传播到人类前
15:07
before they have a chance机会
to jump into people.
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2271
从根源消灭它们的疫苗。
15:10
So when it comes to fighting战斗 pandemics流行病,
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所以当说到对抗疾病大流行,
15:13
the holy grail大盘 is just to get
one step ahead.
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2346
我们离胜利也就一步之遥。
15:16
And if you ask me,
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1150
如果你问我,
15:17
I think one of the ways方法
that we can do that
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2000
我认为其中一个
能实现这一目标的方法就是,
15:19
is using运用 some of the problems问题
that we already已经 have now,
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2583
利用一些现在我们
已经知道的问题,
比如狂犬病毒——
15:22
like rabies狂犬病 --
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910007
1232
15:23
sort分类 of the way an astronaut宇航员
might威力 use a flight飞行 simulator模拟器,
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2761
好比宇航员会用飞行模拟器,
15:26
figuring盘算 out what works作品 and what doesn't,
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1968
来摸索什么能起作用,而什么不行,
15:28
and building建造 up our tool工具 set
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并且构建我们自己的工具集,
15:29
so that when the stakes赌注 are high,
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1598
这样当我们面临危难时,
15:31
we're not flying飞行 blind.
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1248
我们不会盲目飞行。
15:32
Thank you.
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谢谢。
15:34
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Jiasi Hao

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Streicker - Animal-borne disease researcher
Daniel Streicker investigates how everyday killer pathogens can provide insight into future outbreaks of infectious disease.

Why you should listen

Daniel Streicker uses ecology and evolution to reveal, anticipate and prevent infectious disease transmission between species. His research uses a range of approaches including longitudinal field studies in wild bats, phylodynamics, machine learning, metagenomicsand epidemiological modeling. In Peru, Streicker uses bat and virus genetics to connect bats' movements with the spread of rabies virus. With this technique, he and his team are able to forecast outbreaks before they begin, providing valuable lead times for governments to take preventative actions, such as vaccinating humans and livestock ahead of outbreaks.

Streicker is a Wellcome Trust senior research fellow and head of the Streicker Group at the University of Glasgow Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine and the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research.

More profile about the speaker
Daniel Streicker | Speaker | TED.com