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Hannah Fry: The mathematics of love
Hannah Fry: Matematika ljubavi
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Pronaći pravog partnera nije lako, ali je li matematički uopće vjerojatno? U svojem šarmantnom govoru, matematičarka Hannah Fry pokazuje uzorke načina na koji tražimo ljubav i daje svoja tri glavna (matematički dokazana!) savjeta kako pronaći nekoga posebnog za sebe.
Hannah Fry - Complexity theorist
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Today I want to talk to you
about the mathematics of love.
about the mathematics of love.
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Danas bih vam htjela reći
ponešto o matematici ljubavi.
ponešto o matematici ljubavi.
00:16
Now, I think that we can all agree
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Mislim da se svi možemo složiti
00:18
that mathematicians
are famously excellent at finding love.
are famously excellent at finding love.
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da su matematičari poznati
po tome da s lakoćom pronalaze ljubav.
po tome da s lakoćom pronalaze ljubav.
00:23
But it's not just
because of our dashing personalities,
because of our dashing personalities,
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Ali nije to samo zbog
naših očaravajućih osobnosti,
naših očaravajućih osobnosti,
00:27
superior conversational skills
and excellent pencil cases.
and excellent pencil cases.
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fantastičnih društvenih vještina
i izvrsnih pernica,
i izvrsnih pernica,
00:31
It's also because we've actually done
an awful lot of work into the maths
an awful lot of work into the maths
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već i stoga što smo zapravo
stvarno puno radili na tome da izračunamo
stvarno puno radili na tome da izračunamo
00:36
of how to find the perfect partner.
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kako pronaći savršenog partnera.
00:38
Now, in my favorite paper
on the subject, which is entitled,
on the subject, which is entitled,
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U mojem najdražem članku
na tu temu, čiji je naslov
na tu temu, čiji je naslov
00:41
"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --
(Laughter) --
(Laughter) --
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„Zašto nemam djevojku”
(Smijeh)
(Smijeh)
00:45
Peter Backus tries to rate
his chances of finding love.
his chances of finding love.
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Peter Backus pokušava procijeniti
svoje izglede da pronađe ljubav.
svoje izglede da pronađe ljubav.
00:49
Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
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Peter nije vrlo zahtjevan čovjek.
00:51
Of all of the available women in the U.K.,
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Od svih žena koje žive
u Ujedinjenoj Kraljevini,
u Ujedinjenoj Kraljevini,
00:53
all Peter's looking for
is somebody who lives near him,
is somebody who lives near him,
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Peter traži takvu koja živi blizu njega,
00:56
somebody in the right age range,
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koja je prave dobi,
00:58
somebody with a university degree,
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koja je završila fakultet,
01:01
somebody he's likely to get on well with,
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s kojom bi se mogao dobro slagati,
01:03
somebody who's likely to be attractive,
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koja bi bila privlačna,
01:05
somebody who's likely
to find him attractive.
to find him attractive.
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kojoj bi on bio privlačan.
01:08
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:11
And comes up with an estimate
of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
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Na kraju je procijenio da
u cijeloj državi ima 26 takvih žena.
u cijeloj državi ima 26 takvih žena.
01:17
It's not looking very good,
is it Peter?
is it Peter?
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Ne izgleda baš dobro, zar ne?
01:19
Now, just to put that into perspective,
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Da bismo to stavili u perspektivu,
01:21
that's about 400 times fewer
than the best estimates
than the best estimates
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to je oko 400 puta manji broj
od najboljih procjena
od najboljih procjena
01:24
of how many intelligent
extraterrestrial life forms there are.
extraterrestrial life forms there are.
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toga koliko postoji inteligentnih
izvanzemaljskih oblika života.
izvanzemaljskih oblika života.
01:28
And it also gives Peter
a 1 in 285,000 chance
a 1 in 285,000 chance
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Peter tako ima šanse
u omjeru 1 : 285 000
u omjeru 1 : 285 000
01:33
of bumping into any one
of these special ladies
of these special ladies
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da tijekom izlaska
naleti na jednu
naleti na jednu
01:35
on a given night out.
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od tih posebnih žena.
01:37
I'd like to think
that's why mathematicians
that's why mathematicians
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Rado bih mislila da je to razlog iz kojeg
01:39
don't really bother
going on nights out anymore.
going on nights out anymore.
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matematičari više baš i ne izlaze.
01:42
The thing is that I personally
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No, ja osobno
01:44
don't subscribe
to such a pessimistic view.
to such a pessimistic view.
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ne prihvaćam takav pesimistični stav.
01:47
Because I know,
just as well as all of you do,
just as well as all of you do,
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Zato što znam, kao i svi vi,
01:49
that love doesn't really work like that.
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da ljubav zapravo ne funkcionira tako.
01:52
Human emotion isn't neatly ordered
and rational and easily predictable.
and rational and easily predictable.
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Ljudski osjećaji nisu uredni ni racionalni
i ne može ih se lako predvidjeti.
i ne može ih se lako predvidjeti.
01:57
But I also know that that doesn't mean
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Ali znam i da to ne znači
01:59
that mathematics hasn't got something
that it can offer us
that it can offer us
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da nam matematika
tu ne može ništa ponuditi
tu ne može ništa ponuditi
02:03
because, love, as with most of life,
is full of patterns
is full of patterns
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jer se ljubav, kao i mnogo toga u životu,
često odvija po određenim uzorcima,
često odvija po određenim uzorcima,
02:06
and mathematics is, ultimately,
all about the study of patterns.
all about the study of patterns.
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a matematika je, na kraju krajeva,
proučavanje uzoraka,
proučavanje uzoraka,
02:11
Patterns from predicting the weather
to the fluctuations in the stock market,
to the fluctuations in the stock market,
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od predviđanja vremenskih uvjeta
do fluktuacija na tržištu dionica,
do fluktuacija na tržištu dionica,
02:15
to the movement of the planets
or the growth of cities.
or the growth of cities.
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kretanja planeta i rasta gradova.
02:18
And if we're being honest,
none of those things
none of those things
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A, iskreno, ništa od toga
02:21
are exactly neatly ordered
and easily predictable, either.
and easily predictable, either.
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nije baš naročito uredno
niti se može lako predvidjeti.
niti se može lako predvidjeti.
02:24
Because I believe that mathematics
is so powerful that it has the potential
is so powerful that it has the potential
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Vjerujem da je matematika
toliko moćna da nam može
toliko moćna da nam može
02:29
to offer us a new way of looking
at almost anything.
at almost anything.
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pružiti novi način gledanja bilo čega.
02:33
Even something as mysterious as love.
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Čak i nečega misterioznog poput ljubavi.
02:37
And so, to try to persuade you
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Stoga, kako bih vas uvjerila
02:38
of how totally amazing, excellent
and relevant mathematics is,
and relevant mathematics is,
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da je matematika potpuno
divna, odlična i relevantna.
divna, odlična i relevantna.
02:43
I want to give you my top three
mathematically verifiable tips for love.
mathematically verifiable tips for love.
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dat ću vam svoja tri glavna
matematički provjerljiva savjeta za ljubav.
matematički provjerljiva savjeta za ljubav.
02:51
Okay, so Top Tip #1:
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Savjet br. 1:
02:53
How to win at online dating.
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Kako uspješno pronaći ljubav na internetu.
02:58
So my favorite online dating
website is OkCupid,
website is OkCupid,
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OkCupid mi je najdraža internetska
stranica za traženje partnera,
stranica za traženje partnera,
03:02
not least because it was started
by a group of mathematicians.
by a group of mathematicians.
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i to ne samo zato što ju je
pokrenula skupina matematičara.
pokrenula skupina matematičara.
03:05
Now, because they're mathematicians,
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Budući da su matematičari,
03:07
they have been collecting data
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gotovo deset godina
03:09
on everybody who uses their site
for almost a decade.
for almost a decade.
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prikupljaju podatke o svima
koji koriste njihovu stranicu.
koji koriste njihovu stranicu.
03:11
And they've been trying
to search for patterns
to search for patterns
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Nastoje pronaći uzorke
03:14
in the way that we talk about ourselves
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u načinu na koji govorimo o sebi
03:16
and the way that we
interact with each other
interact with each other
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i na koji komuniciramo jedni s drugima
03:18
on an online dating website.
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na internetskoj stranici
za traženje partnera.
za traženje partnera.
03:19
And they've come up with some
seriously interesting findings.
seriously interesting findings.
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I otkrili su neke
stvarno zanimljive stvari.
stvarno zanimljive stvari.
03:22
But my particular favorite
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Meni je najdraže
03:24
is that it turns out
that on an online dating website,
that on an online dating website,
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to što se pokazalo da na
stranicama za traženje partnera
stranicama za traženje partnera
03:27
how attractive you are
does not dictate how popular you are,
does not dictate how popular you are,
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vaša popularnost ne ovisi
o tome koliko ste privlačni
o tome koliko ste privlačni
03:33
and actually, having people
think that you're ugly
think that you're ugly
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i zapravo, ako ljudi misle da ste ružni,
03:37
can work to your advantage.
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to vam može ići u prilog.
03:40
Let me show you how this works.
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Pokazat ću vam kako to funkcionira.
03:42
In a thankfully voluntary
section of OkCupid,
section of OkCupid,
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U nasreću neobveznom dijelu OkCupida
03:46
you are allowed to rate
how attractive you think people are
how attractive you think people are
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možete ocijeniti koliko
ljude smatrate privlačnima,
ljude smatrate privlačnima,
03:49
on a scale between 1 and 5.
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ocjenama od 1 do 5.
03:52
Now, if we compare this score,
the average score,
the average score,
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Ako ovaj prosječan rezultat usporedimo
03:55
to how many messages a
selection of people receive,
selection of people receive,
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s brojem poruka koje
primaju određeni ljudi,
primaju određeni ljudi,
03:58
you can begin to get a sense
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možete pomalo vidjeti
03:59
of how attractiveness links to popularity
on an online dating website.
on an online dating website.
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kakav je odnos privlačnosti i popularnosti
na stranicama za traženje partnera.
na stranicama za traženje partnera.
04:03
This is the graph that the OkCupid guys
have come up with.
have come up with.
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Ovaj su graf izradili dečki s OkCupida.
04:07
And the important thing to notice
is that it's not totally true
is that it's not totally true
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Važno je primijetiti
da nije potpuno istina
da nije potpuno istina
04:10
that the more attractive you are,
the more messages you get.
the more messages you get.
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da ćete dobiti više poruka
ako ste privlačniji.
ako ste privlačniji.
04:13
But the question arises then
of what is it about people up here
of what is it about people up here
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Ali postavlja se pitanje
po čemu su to ljudi ovdje gore
po čemu su to ljudi ovdje gore
04:16
who are so much more popular
than people down here,
than people down here,
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toliko popularniji od ljudi ovdje dolje,
04:21
even though they have the
same score of attractiveness?
same score of attractiveness?
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iako imaju jednaku ocjenu privlačnosti?
04:24
And the reason why is that it's not just
straightforward looks that are important.
straightforward looks that are important.
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Razlog je taj što nije bitan samo izgled.
04:28
So let me try to illustrate their
findings with an example.
findings with an example.
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Dat ću vam primjer za
ilustraciju onoga što su otkrili.
ilustraciju onoga što su otkrili.
04:31
So if you take someone like
Portia de Rossi, for example,
Portia de Rossi, for example,
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Netko poput Portije de Rossi, na primjer.
04:35
everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi
is a very beautiful woman.
is a very beautiful woman.
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Svi se slažu da je Portia de Rossi
vrlo zgodna žena.
vrlo zgodna žena.
04:40
Nobody thinks that she's ugly,
but she's not a supermodel, either.
but she's not a supermodel, either.
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Nitko ne misli da je ružna,
ali nije ni supermodel.
ali nije ni supermodel.
04:43
If you compare Portia de Rossi
to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
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Ako usporedite Portiju de Rossi
s nekime poput Sarah Jessice Parker,
s nekime poput Sarah Jessice Parker,
04:48
now, a lot of people,
myself included, I should say,
myself included, I should say,
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mnogi ljudi, pa, moram priznati, i ja,
04:51
think that Sarah Jessica Parker
is seriously fabulous
is seriously fabulous
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misle da je Sarah Jessica Parker
stvarno fantastična
stvarno fantastična
04:56
and possibly one of the
most beautiful creatures
most beautiful creatures
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i možda jedno od najljepših bića
04:58
to have ever have walked
on the face of the Earth.
on the face of the Earth.
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koja su ikad hodala Zemljom.
05:01
But some other people,
i.e., most of the Internet,
i.e., most of the Internet,
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Ali čini se da neki drugi ljudi,
recimo većina ljudi na internetu,
recimo većina ljudi na internetu,
05:07
seem to think that she looks
a bit like a horse. (Laughter)
a bit like a horse. (Laughter)
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misle da malo naliči konju. (Smijeh)
05:13
Now, I think that if you ask people
how attractive they thought
how attractive they thought
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Mislim da, kad biste pitali ljude
za njihovo mišljenje o privlačnosti
za njihovo mišljenje o privlačnosti
05:17
Sarah Jessica Parker
or Portia de Rossi were,
or Portia de Rossi were,
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Sarah Jessice Parker i Portije de Rossi
05:19
and you ask them to give
them a score between 1 and 5,
them a score between 1 and 5,
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i kad biste tražili da ih
ocijene od 1 do 5,
ocijene od 1 do 5,
05:22
I reckon that they'd average out
to have roughly the same score.
to have roughly the same score.
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mislim da bi u prosjeku imale
otprilike jednak rezultat.
otprilike jednak rezultat.
05:25
But the way that people would vote
would be very different.
would be very different.
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Ali ljudi bi glasali
na vrlo različite načine.
na vrlo različite načine.
05:27
So Portia's scores would
all be clustered around the 4
all be clustered around the 4
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Portijine bi ocjene uglavnom bile oko 4
05:30
because everybody agrees
that she's very beautiful,
that she's very beautiful,
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jer se svi slažu da je prekrasna,
05:32
whereas Sarah Jessica Parker
completely divides opinion.
completely divides opinion.
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dok se za Sarah Jessicu Parker
mišljenja potpuno razlikuju.
mišljenja potpuno razlikuju.
05:35
There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
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Imala bi vrlo raznolike ocjene.
05:38
And actually it's this spread that counts.
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I upravo je ta raznolikost bitna.
05:40
It's this spread
that makes you more popular
that makes you more popular
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Zbog te ste raznolikosti popularniji
05:42
on an online Internet dating website.
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na stranicama za traženje partnera.
05:45
So what that means then
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To, dakle, znači
05:46
is that if some people
think that you're attractive,
think that you're attractive,
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da, ako neki ljudi misle da ste privlačni,
05:48
you're actually better off
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zapravo je za vas bolje
05:50
having some other people
think that you're a massive minger.
think that you're a massive minger.
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da neki drugi ljudi misle da ste rugoba.
05:55
That's much better
than everybody just thinking
than everybody just thinking
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To je mnogo bolje nego da svi misle
05:58
that you're the cute girl next door.
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da ste slatka djevojka iz susjedstva.
05:59
Now, I think this begins
makes a bit more sense
makes a bit more sense
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Mislim da to ima malo više smisla
06:02
when you think in terms of the people
who are sending these messages.
who are sending these messages.
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ako razmišljate
kao ljudi koji šalju te poruke.
kao ljudi koji šalju te poruke.
06:05
So let's say that you think
somebody's attractive,
somebody's attractive,
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Recimo da vam je netko privlačan,
06:07
but you suspect that other people
won't necessarily be that interested.
won't necessarily be that interested.
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ali mislite da drugi ljudi
neće nužno biti toliko zainteresirani.
neće nužno biti toliko zainteresirani.
06:11
That means there's
less competition for you
less competition for you
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To znači da imate manje konkurencije
06:14
and it's an extra incentive
for you to get in touch.
for you to get in touch.
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i to vam je dodatan poticaj
da stupite u kontakt s tom osobom.
da stupite u kontakt s tom osobom.
06:16
Whereas compare that
to if you think somebody is attractive
to if you think somebody is attractive
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S druge strane, netko vam je privlačan,
06:19
but you suspect that everybody
is going to think they're attractive.
is going to think they're attractive.
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ali mislite da će ta osoba
biti privlačna i svima drugima.
biti privlačna i svima drugima.
06:23
Well, why would you bother
humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
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Budimo iskreni, zašto biste se ponižavali?
06:26
Here's where the really
interesting part comes.
interesting part comes.
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Dolazimo do stvarno zanimljivog dijela.
06:28
Because when people choose the pictures
that they use on an online dating website,
that they use on an online dating website,
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Kad ljudi biraju fotografije koje
koriste na stranicama za traženje partnera,
koriste na stranicama za traženje partnera,
06:33
they often try to minimize the things
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često nastoje pokazati što manje stvari
06:35
that they think some people
will find unattractive.
will find unattractive.
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za koje misle da će
nekima biti neprivlačne.
nekima biti neprivlačne.
06:39
The classic example is people
who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
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Tipičan su primjer ljudi
koji su možda malo pretili
koji su možda malo pretili
06:43
deliberately choosing
a very cropped photo,
a very cropped photo,
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i koji namjerno biraju
vrlo odrezane fotografije.
vrlo odrezane fotografije.
06:46
or bald men, for example,
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Ili ćelavi muškarci
06:48
deliberately choosing pictures
where they're wearing hats.
where they're wearing hats.
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koji namjerno biraju fotografije
na kojima nose kapu.
na kojima nose kapu.
06:51
But actually this is the opposite
of what you should do
of what you should do
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Ali, ako želite postići uspjeh,
trebalo bi raditi
trebalo bi raditi
06:54
if you want to be successful.
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upravo suprotno od toga.
06:55
You should really, instead, play up to
whatever it is that makes you different,
whatever it is that makes you different,
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Zapravo biste trebali igrati
na ono što vas čini drugačijim,
na ono što vas čini drugačijim,
07:00
even if you think that some people
will find it unattractive.
will find it unattractive.
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čak i ako mislite da nekima
to neće biti privlačno.
to neće biti privlačno.
07:04
Because the people who fancy you
are just going to fancy you anyway,
are just going to fancy you anyway,
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Ljudima kojima se sviđate
sviđat ćete se ionako,
sviđat ćete se ionako,
07:07
and the unimportant losers who don't,
well, they only play up to your advantage.
well, they only play up to your advantage.
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a oni nebitni kojima se ne sviđate
samo vam idu u korist.
samo vam idu u korist.
07:12
Okay, Top Tip #2:
How to pick the perfect partner.
How to pick the perfect partner.
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U redu, savjet br. 2:
Kako izabrati savršenog partnera.
Kako izabrati savršenog partnera.
07:14
So let's imagine then
that you're a roaring success
that you're a roaring success
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Zamislimo da ste vrlo popularni
07:17
on the dating scene.
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u svijetu traženja partnera.
07:19
But the question arises
of how do you then convert that success
of how do you then convert that success
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Ali postavlja se pitanje
kako taj uspjeh pretvoriti
kako taj uspjeh pretvoriti
07:23
into longer-term happiness
and in particular,
and in particular,
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u dugoročnu sreću i, konkretno,
07:27
how do you decide
when is the right time to settle down?
when is the right time to settle down?
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kako odlučiti kad je
pravo vrijeme za skrasiti se?
pravo vrijeme za skrasiti se?
07:31
Now generally,
it's not advisable to just cash in
it's not advisable to just cash in
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Općenito se ne preporuča odmah se povući
07:34
and marry the first person
who comes along
who comes along
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i vjenčati se s prvom osobom koja naiđe
07:36
and shows you any interest at all.
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i pokaže interes za vas.
07:38
But, equally, you don't really
want to leave it too long
want to leave it too long
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Ali isto tako ne biste trebali
ni predugo čekati
ni predugo čekati
07:41
if you want to maximize your
chance of long-term happiness.
chance of long-term happiness.
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ako želite povećati svoje izglede
za dugoročnu sreću.
za dugoročnu sreću.
07:44
As my favorite author,
Jane Austen, puts it,
Jane Austen, puts it,
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Riječima Jane Austen,
moje najdraže spisateljice,
moje najdraže spisateljice,
07:47
"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
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„Neudana žena od 27 godina uopće se
07:50
can never hope to feel or
inspire affection again."
inspire affection again."
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ne može nadati da će ponovno osjetiti
ljubav niti nadahnuti koga ljubavlju.”
ljubav niti nadahnuti koga ljubavlju.”
07:53
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:55
Thanks a lot, Jane.
What do you know about love?
What do you know about love?
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Baš ti hvala, Jane. Što ti znaš o ljubavi?
07:59
So the question is then,
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Stoga je pitanje
08:01
how do you know when
is the right time to settle down
is the right time to settle down
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kako znati kad je
pravo vrijeme da se skrasite,
pravo vrijeme da se skrasite,
08:03
given all the people
that you can date in your lifetime?
that you can date in your lifetime?
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s obzirom na sve ljude s kojima
možete izlaziti u životu?
možete izlaziti u životu?
08:06
Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit
of mathematics that we can use
of mathematics that we can use
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Nasreću, za pomoć se možemo
poslužiti krasnim dijelom matematike:
poslužiti krasnim dijelom matematike:
08:10
to help us out here, called
optimal stopping theory.
optimal stopping theory.
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teorijom optimalnog zaustavljanja.
08:12
So let's imagine then,
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1900
Zamislimo
08:14
that you start dating when you're 15
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da počnete izlaziti s 15 godina
08:17
and ideally, you'd like to be married
by the time that you're 35.
by the time that you're 35.
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i u idealnom biste slučaju
do 35. godine htjeli biti vjenčani.
do 35. godine htjeli biti vjenčani.
08:21
And there's a number of people
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Postoji mnogo ljudi
08:22
that you could potentially
date across your lifetime,
date across your lifetime,
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s kojima biste u životu
potencijalno mogli izlaziti
potencijalno mogli izlaziti
08:25
and they'll be at varying
levels of goodness.
levels of goodness.
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i ti će vam ljudi
više ili manje odgovarati.
više ili manje odgovarati.
08:27
Now the rules are that once
you cash in and get married,
you cash in and get married,
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Pravila su takva da jednom
kad se povučete i vjenčate,
kad se povučete i vjenčate,
08:30
you can't look ahead to see
what you could have had,
what you could have had,
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više ne možete gledati što ste mogli imati
08:32
and equally, you can't go back
and change your mind.
and change your mind.
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i jednako tako više se
ne možete ni predomisliti.
ne možete ni predomisliti.
08:35
In my experience at least,
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Prema mojem iskustvu,
08:37
I find that typically people don't
much like being recalled
much like being recalled
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ljudi obično baš i ne vole
kad ih se netko sjeti
kad ih se netko sjeti
08:39
years after being passed up
for somebody else, or that's just me.
for somebody else, or that's just me.
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godinama nakon što su zamijenjeni
nekim drugim. Ili je možda samo meni tako.
nekim drugim. Ili je možda samo meni tako.
08:45
So the math says then
that what you should do
that what you should do
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Matematika kaže
08:48
in the first 37 percent
of your dating window,
of your dating window,
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3031
da u prvih 37 % svojeg razdoblja izlaženja
08:51
you should just reject everybody
as serious marriage potential.
as serious marriage potential.
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nikoga ne biste trebali
smatrati potencijalnim supružnikom.
smatrati potencijalnim supružnikom.
08:55
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:57
And then, you should pick the
next person that comes along
next person that comes along
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Zatim biste trebali izabrati
sljedeću osobu koja naiđe
sljedeću osobu koja naiđe
09:01
that is better than everybody
that you've seen before.
that you've seen before.
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i koja je bolja od ikoga
koga ste dotad vidjeli.
koga ste dotad vidjeli.
09:04
So here's the example.
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Evo primjera.
09:05
Now if you do this, it can be
mathematically proven, in fact,
mathematically proven, in fact,
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Ako to učinite, može se
matematički dokazati
matematički dokazati
09:08
that this is the best possible way
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da je to najbolji mogući način
09:10
of maximizing your chances
of finding the perfect partner.
of finding the perfect partner.
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da si povećate izglede za
pronalaženje savršenog partnera.
pronalaženje savršenog partnera.
09:15
Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that
this method does come with some risks.
this method does come with some risks.
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Nažalost, moram vam reći
da ta metoda ima i određene rizike.
da ta metoda ima i određene rizike.
09:20
For instance, imagine if
your perfect partner appeared
your perfect partner appeared
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4690
Zamislite, ne primjer, da se
vaš savršeni partner pojavio
vaš savršeni partner pojavio
09:25
during your first 37 percent.
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tijekom vaših prvih 37 % vremena.
09:28
Now, unfortunately,
you'd have to reject them.
you'd have to reject them.
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Nažalost, morali biste ga odbiti.
09:30
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:33
Now, if you're following the maths,
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Ako pratite ovu matematiku,
09:35
I'm afraid no one else comes along
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bojim se da neće naići nitko drugi
09:37
that's better than anyone
you've seen before,
you've seen before,
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2127
tko bi bio bolji od bilo koga
koga ste vidjeli prije
koga ste vidjeli prije
09:39
so you have to go on
rejecting everyone and die alone.
rejecting everyone and die alone.
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pa ćete i dalje morati
odbijati svakoga i umrijeti sami.
odbijati svakoga i umrijeti sami.
09:44
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:46
Probably surrounded by cats
nibbling at your remains.
nibbling at your remains.
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4881
Vjerojatno okruženi mačkama
koje će pojesti vaše ostatke.
koje će pojesti vaše ostatke.
09:51
Okay, another risk is,
let's imagine, instead,
let's imagine, instead,
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U redu, a drugi je rizik, zamislimo radije
09:55
that the first people that you dated
in your first 37 percent
in your first 37 percent
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3245
da su prvi ljudi s kojima ste izlazili
u svojih prvih 37 % vremena
u svojih prvih 37 % vremena
09:58
are just incredibly dull,
boring, terrible people.
boring, terrible people.
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nevjerojatno bezvezni, dosadni i užasni.
10:02
Now, that's okay, because
you're in your rejection phase,
you're in your rejection phase,
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To je u redu jer ste u fazi odbijanja
10:05
so thats fine,
you can reject them.
you can reject them.
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i možete ih odbiti bez problema.
10:07
But then imagine, the next
person to come along
person to come along
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3468
Ali zamislite da je iduća osoba koja naiđe
10:10
is just marginally less boring,
dull and terrible
dull and terrible
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4338
tek malo manje bezvezna, dosadna i užasna
10:14
than everybody that you've seen before.
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od svih koje ste dotad vidjeli.
10:16
Now, if you are following the maths,
I'm afraid you have to marry them
I'm afraid you have to marry them
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4202
Ako pratite ovu matematiku, bojim se
da ćete se morati vjenčati s tom osobom
da ćete se morati vjenčati s tom osobom
10:20
and end up in a relationship
which is, frankly, suboptimal.
which is, frankly, suboptimal.
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3413
i završit ćete u vezi koja nije optimalna.
10:24
Sorry about that.
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1083
Žao mi je.
10:25
But I do think that there's
an opportunity here
an opportunity here
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2200
Ali mislim da se proizvođačima čestitaka
10:27
for Hallmark to cash in on
and really cater for this market.
and really cater for this market.
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3150
tu javlja tržište i prilika za zaradu.
10:30
A Valentine's Day card like this.
(Laughter)
(Laughter)
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2090
Na ovakvim čestitkama za Valentinovo
(Smijeh)
(Smijeh)
10:32
"My darling husband, you
are marginally less terrible
are marginally less terrible
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4025
„Dragi mužu, malo si manje užasan
10:36
than the first 37 percent
of people I dated."
of people I dated."
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3045
od prvih 37 % ljudi s kojima sam izlazila.”
10:39
It's actually more romantic
than I normally manage.
than I normally manage.
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5487
To je zapravo romantičnije
nego što ja obično zvučim.
nego što ja obično zvučim.
10:45
Okay, so this method doesn't give
you a 100 percent success rate,
you a 100 percent success rate,
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4682
Znači, ovom metodom
ne postiže se stopostotni uspjeh,
ne postiže se stopostotni uspjeh,
10:50
but there's no other possible
strategy that can do any better.
strategy that can do any better.
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3303
ali nema druge bolje strategije.
10:53
And actually, in the wild,
there are certain types
there are certain types
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U divljini zapravo postoje vrste riba
10:56
of fish which follow and
employ this exact strategy.
employ this exact strategy.
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3713
koje primjenjuju upravo tu strategiju.
10:59
So they reject every possible
suitor that turns up
suitor that turns up
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2639
Odbijaju svakog udvarača koji se pojavi
11:02
in the first 37 percent
of the mating season,
of the mating season,
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u prvih 37 % sezone parenja,
11:05
and then they pick the next fish
that comes along after that window
that comes along after that window
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3531
a zatim izaberu sljedeću ribu
koja naiđe nakon toga
koja naiđe nakon toga
11:08
that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
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2056
i koja je, ne znam, veća i snažnija
11:11
than all of the fish
that they've seen before.
that they've seen before.
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od svih riba koje su dotad vidjele.
11:13
I also think that subconsciously,
humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
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4678
Mislim da mi ljudi to
podsvjesno ionako radimo.
podsvjesno ionako radimo.
11:18
We give ourselves a little bit of time
to play the field,
to play the field,
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3417
Dajemo si malo vremena
da izlazimo s više ljudi
da izlazimo s više ljudi
11:21
get a feel for the marketplace
or whatever when we're young.
or whatever when we're young.
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3502
i pogledamo što se nudi dok smo mladi.
11:25
And then we only start looking seriously
at potential marriage candidates
at potential marriage candidates
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4908
Zatim kandidate za brak
počnemo ozbiljno tražiti
počnemo ozbiljno tražiti
11:30
once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
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1890
tek kad dođemo u srednje ili kasne 20-e.
11:31
I think this is conclusive proof,
if ever it were needed,
if ever it were needed,
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2803
Mislim da je to jasan dokaz,
ako je uopće bio potreban,
ako je uopće bio potreban,
11:34
that everybody's brains are prewired
to be just a little bit mathematical.
to be just a little bit mathematical.
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682716
4506
da je svačiji mozak barem malo
matematički nastrojen.
matematički nastrojen.
11:39
Okay, so that was Top Tip #2.
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1861
Dakle to je bio savjet br. 2.
11:41
Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
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3253
Evo savjeta br. 3: Kako izbjeći razvod.
11:44
Okay, so let's imagine then
that you picked your perfect partner
that you picked your perfect partner
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3138
Zamislimo da ste
izabrali savršenog partnera
izabrali savršenog partnera
11:47
and you're settling into
a lifelong relationship with them.
a lifelong relationship with them.
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4777
i s njim ili njom
krećete u doživotnu vezu.
krećete u doživotnu vezu.
11:52
Now, I like to think that everybody
would ideally like to avoid divorce,
would ideally like to avoid divorce,
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4074
Volim misliti da se, u idealnom slučaju,
nitko ne želi razvesti,
nitko ne želi razvesti,
11:56
apart from, I don't know,
Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
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4366
osim, ne znam, možda
supruge Piersa Morgana?
supruge Piersa Morgana?
12:02
But it's a sad fact of modern life
225
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2290
Ali tužna je činjenica modernog doba
12:04
that 1 in 2 marriages in the
States ends in divorce,
States ends in divorce,
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3809
da pola brakova u SAD-u završi razvodom,
12:08
with the rest of the world
not being far behind.
not being far behind.
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3301
a ni ostatak svijeta ne zaostaje mnogo.
12:11
Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
228
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2099
Možda bi vam se moglo oprostiti
12:13
for thinking that the arguments
that precede a marital breakup
that precede a marital breakup
229
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3660
ako mislite da svađe koje
prethode raskidu braka
prethode raskidu braka
12:17
are not an ideal candidate
for mathematical investigation.
for mathematical investigation.
230
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3533
nisu idealan kandidat za
matematička istraživanja.
matematička istraživanja.
12:20
For one thing, it's very hard to know
231
728877
1900
Ako ništa drugo, vrlo je teško znati
12:22
what you should be measuring
or what you should be quantifying.
or what you should be quantifying.
232
730777
3057
što bi trebalo mjeriti ili
što bi trebalo brojiti.
što bi trebalo brojiti.
12:25
But this didn't stop a psychologist,
John Gottman, who did exactly that.
John Gottman, who did exactly that.
233
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6573
Ali to nije spriječilo psihologa
Johna Gottmana da učini upravo to.
Johna Gottmana da učini upravo to.
12:32
Gottman observed hundreds of couples
having a conversation
having a conversation
234
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5195
Gottman je promatrao
stotine parova koji su razgovarali
stotine parova koji su razgovarali
12:37
and recorded, well,
everything you can think of.
everything you can think of.
235
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2462
i bilježio sve što možete zamisliti.
12:40
So he recorded what was said
in the conversation,
in the conversation,
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2487
Bilježio je što je rečeno u razgovoru,
12:42
he recorded their skin conductivity,
237
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2063
vodljivost kože,
12:44
he recorded their facial expressions,
238
752614
1920
izraze lica,
12:46
their heart rates, their blood pressure,
239
754534
2340
brzine otkucaja srca, tlak,
12:48
basically everything apart from whether
or not the wife was actually always right,
or not the wife was actually always right,
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756874
6450
sve osim toga je li supruga
stvarno uvijek u pravu ili nije,
stvarno uvijek u pravu ili nije,
12:55
which incidentally she totally is.
241
763324
3024
a, inače, naravno da jest.
12:58
But what Gottman and his team found
242
766348
2920
Ali Gottman i njegov tim otkrili su
13:01
was that one of the
most important predictors
most important predictors
243
769268
2504
da je jedan od najvažnijih faktora
13:03
for whether or not a couple
is going to get divorced
is going to get divorced
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2150
toga hoće li se ili neće
određeni par razvesti
određeni par razvesti
13:05
was how positive or negative each
partner was being in the conversation.
partner was being in the conversation.
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5100
bio to koliko je svaki partner bio
pozitivan ili negativan tijekom razgovora.
pozitivan ili negativan tijekom razgovora.
13:11
Now, couples that were very low-risk
246
779022
2612
Parovi koji su bili izloženi malom riziku
13:13
scored a lot more positive points
on Gottman's scale than negative.
on Gottman's scale than negative.
247
781634
4227
imali su mnogo više pozitivnih nego
negativnih bodova na Gottmanovoj ljestvici.
negativnih bodova na Gottmanovoj ljestvici.
13:17
Whereas bad relationships,
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2140
S druge strane, u lošim vezama,
13:20
by which I mean, probably
going to get divorced,
going to get divorced,
249
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2792
odnosno onima koje će
vjerojatno završiti razvodom,
vjerojatno završiti razvodom,
13:22
they found themselves getting
into a spiral of negativity.
into a spiral of negativity.
250
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4612
partneri su bili vrlo negativni.
13:27
Now just by using these very simple ideas,
251
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2353
Samo na temelju tih
vrlo jednostavnih pretpostavki
vrlo jednostavnih pretpostavki
13:29
Gottman and his group were able to predict
252
797758
2502
Gottman i njegov tim
uspjeli su predvidjeti
uspjeli su predvidjeti
13:32
whether a given couple
was going to get divorced
was going to get divorced
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2843
hoće li se određeni par razvesti,
13:35
with a 90 percent accuracy.
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i to s točnošću predviđanja od 90 %.
13:37
But it wasn't until he teamed up
with a mathematician, James Murray,
with a mathematician, James Murray,
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Ali tek kad je počeo raditi zajedno
s matematičarom Jamesom Murrayjem
s matematičarom Jamesom Murrayjem
13:41
that they really started to understand
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počeli su stvarno shvaćati
13:43
what causes these negativity spirals
and how they occur.
and how they occur.
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što uzrokuje tu negativnost
i kako do nje dolazi.
i kako do nje dolazi.
13:47
And the results that they found
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Mislim da su njihovi rezultati
13:49
I think are just incredibly
impressively simple and interesting.
impressively simple and interesting.
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nevjerojatno i impresivno
jednostavni i zanimljivi.
jednostavni i zanimljivi.
13:53
So these equations, they predict how
the wife or husband is going to respond
the wife or husband is going to respond
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Ovim se jednadžbama predviđa
kako će žena ili muž reagirati
kako će žena ili muž reagirati
13:58
in their next turn of the conversation,
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kad na njih dođe red u razgovoru,
13:59
how positive or negative
they're going to be.
they're going to be.
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koliko će biti pozitivni ili negativni.
14:02
And these equations, they depend on
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Te jednadžbe ovise
14:03
the mood of the person
when they're on their own,
when they're on their own,
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o raspoloženju osobe kad je sama,
14:06
the mood of the person when
they're with their partner,
they're with their partner,
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o raspoloženju osobe kad je s partnerom,
14:08
but most importantly, they depend on
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ali najviše ovise
14:10
how much the husband and wife
influence one another.
influence one another.
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o tome koliko muž i žena
utječu jedno na drugo.
utječu jedno na drugo.
14:13
Now, I think it's important
to point out at this stage,
to point out at this stage,
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Mislim da je u ovoj fazi važno istaknuti
14:16
that these exact equations
have also been shown
have also been shown
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da se upravo ovim jednadžbama
14:19
to be perfectly able at describing
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savršeno može opisati
14:22
what happens between two
countries in an arms race.
countries in an arms race.
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i što se događa kad se
dvije zemlje utrkuju u naoružanju.
dvije zemlje utrkuju u naoružanju.
14:26
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
14:30
So that -- an arguing couple
spiraling into negativity
spiraling into negativity
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Par koji se svađa, dakle,
postaje sve negativniji
postaje sve negativniji
14:33
and teetering on the brink of divorce --
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i visi na rubu razvoda --
14:35
is actually mathematically equivalent to
the beginning of a nuclear war.
the beginning of a nuclear war.
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matematički je to jednako
početku nuklearnog rata.
početku nuklearnog rata.
14:40
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
14:42
But the really important term
in this equation
in this equation
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Ali zaista bitan faktor u ovoj jednadži
14:45
is the influence that people
have on one another,
have on one another,
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jest utjecaj koji ljudi
imaju jedni na druge,
imaju jedni na druge,
14:47
and in particular, something called
the negativity threshold.
the negativity threshold.
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a posebno nešto
što se zove prag negativnosti.
što se zove prag negativnosti.
14:50
Now, the negativity threshold,
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Prag negativnosti jest mjera
14:52
you can think of as
how annoying the husband can be
how annoying the husband can be
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koliko muž može biti iritantan
14:57
before the wife starts to get
really pissed off, and vice versa.
really pissed off, and vice versa.
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prije nego se žena
stvarno naljuti, i obratno.
stvarno naljuti, i obratno.
15:01
Now, I always thought that good marriages
were about compromise and understanding
were about compromise and understanding
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Oduvijek sam mislila da su dobri brakovi
puni kompromisa i razumijevanja
puni kompromisa i razumijevanja
15:06
and allowing the person to
have the space to be themselves.
have the space to be themselves.
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i da svatko ima prostora
da bude kakav stvarno jest.
da bude kakav stvarno jest.
15:09
So I would have thought that perhaps
the most successful relationships
the most successful relationships
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Pretpostavila bih možda
da su najuspješnije veze
da su najuspješnije veze
15:12
were ones where there was
a really high negativity threshold.
a really high negativity threshold.
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one u kojima postoji
vrlo visok prag negativnosti.
vrlo visok prag negativnosti.
15:16
Where couples let things go
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U kojima se parovi ne svađaju oko svega
15:17
and only brought things up if
they really were a big deal.
they really were a big deal.
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i započinju raspravu
samo ako je stvar zaista bitna.
samo ako je stvar zaista bitna.
15:20
But actually, the mathematics
and subsequent findings by the team
and subsequent findings by the team
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No, matematika i kasniji rezultati
do kojih je tim došao
do kojih je tim došao
15:24
have shown the exact opposite is true.
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pokazali su da je istina baš suprotna.
15:27
The best couples,
or the most successful couples,
or the most successful couples,
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Najbolji, najuspješniji parovi
15:29
are the ones with a really low
negativity threshold.
negativity threshold.
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oni su koji imaju zaista
nizak prag negativnosti.
nizak prag negativnosti.
15:33
These are the couples that don't
let anything go unnoticed
let anything go unnoticed
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To su parovi kod kojih ništa
ne prolazi nezamijećeno
ne prolazi nezamijećeno
15:37
and allow each other
some room to complain.
some room to complain.
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i koji se mogu jedno drugome žaliti.
15:40
These are the couples that are continually
trying to repair their own relationship,
trying to repair their own relationship,
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To su parovi koji neprestano
nastoje popraviti svoju vezu,
nastoje popraviti svoju vezu,
15:45
that have a much more positive
outlook on their marriage.
outlook on their marriage.
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koji imaju mnogo pozitivniju
sliku o svojem braku.
sliku o svojem braku.
15:48
Couples that don't let things go
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Parovi koji ne zanemaruju neslaganja
15:50
and couples that don't let trivial things
end up being a really big deal.
end up being a really big deal.
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i parovi koji ne dopuštaju
da se sitnice prenapušu.
da se sitnice prenapušu.
15:56
Now of course, it takes bit more than
just a low negativity threshold
just a low negativity threshold
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Naravno da nizak prag negativnosti
16:02
and not compromising to
have a successful relationship.
have a successful relationship.
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i neprihvaćanje kompromisa
nisu dovoljni za uspješnu vezu.
nisu dovoljni za uspješnu vezu.
16:06
But I think that it's quite interesting
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Ali mislim da je vrlo zanimljivo
16:08
to know that there is really
mathematical evidence
mathematical evidence
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znati da zaista postoji matematički dokaz
16:11
to say that you should never
let the sun go down on your anger.
let the sun go down on your anger.
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da nikad ne smijete
ostati ljuti preko noći.
ostati ljuti preko noći.
16:14
So those are my top three tips
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Eto, to su moja tri glavna savjeta
16:16
of how maths can help you
with love and relationships.
with love and relationships.
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o tome kako vam matematika
može pomoći u ljubavi i vezama.
može pomoći u ljubavi i vezama.
16:19
But I hope
that aside from their use as tips,
that aside from their use as tips,
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Ali nadam se da će, osim kao savjeti,
16:21
they also give you a little bit of insight
into the power of mathematics.
into the power of mathematics.
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poslužiti i da vam malo
prikažu moć matematike.
prikažu moć matematike.
16:25
Because for me, equations
and symbols aren't just a thing.
and symbols aren't just a thing.
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Meni jednadže i simboli
nisu samo stvari.
nisu samo stvari.
16:30
They're a voice that speaks out
about the incredible richness of nature
about the incredible richness of nature
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Oni su glas koji govori o
nevjerojatnom bogatstvu prirode
nevjerojatnom bogatstvu prirode
16:35
and the startling simplicity
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i zadivljujućoj jednostavnosti
16:36
in the patterns that twist and turn
and warp and evolve all around us,
and warp and evolve all around us,
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uzoraka koji se uvijaju, okreću,
izvrću i razvijaju svuda oko nas,
izvrću i razvijaju svuda oko nas,
16:41
from how the world works to how we behave.
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od načina na koji svijet funkcionira
do načina na koji se ponašamo.
do načina na koji se ponašamo.
16:44
So I hope that perhaps,
for just a couple of you,
for just a couple of you,
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Nadam se da će barem nekoliko vas
16:46
a little bit of insight into
the mathematics of love
the mathematics of love
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malo uvida u matematiku ljubavi
16:48
can persuade you to have
a little bit more love for mathematics.
a little bit more love for mathematics.
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potaknuti da pokažete
malo više ljubavi za matematiku.
malo više ljubavi za matematiku.
16:52
Thank you.
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Hvala.
16:53
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hannah Fry - Complexity theoristHannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future.
Why you should listen
Hannah Fry completed her PhD in fluid dynamics in early 2011 with an emphasis on how liquid droplets move. Then, after working as an aerodynamicist in the motorsport industry, she began work on an interdisciplinary project in complexity sciences at University College London. Hannah’s current research focusses on discovering new connections between mathematically described systems and human interaction at the largest scale.
Fry is the author of the TED Book, The Mathematics of Love: Patterns, Proofs, and the Search for the Ultimate Equation.
Hannah Fry | Speaker | TED.com