ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hannah Fry - Complexity theorist
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future.

Why you should listen

Hannah Fry completed her PhD in fluid dynamics in early 2011 with an emphasis on how liquid droplets move. Then, after working as an aerodynamicist in the motorsport industry, she began work on an interdisciplinary project in complexity sciences at University College London. Hannah’s current research focusses on discovering new connections between mathematically described systems and human interaction at the largest scale.

More profile about the speaker
Hannah Fry | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxBinghamtonUniversity

Hannah Fry: The mathematics of love

汉娜·弗里: 爱情数学

Filmed:
5,166,184 views

寻得最好的伴侣谈何容易,这事儿能够透过数学来完成吗?在这迷人的谈话中,数学家汉娜·弗里向我们展示了人们看待爱情的规律,并且揭露了三大秘诀(已经由数学验证!)来帮助你获得那最特别之人。
- Complexity theorist
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
Today今天 I want to talk to you
about the mathematics数学 of love.
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今天我想要和大家谈谈
关于爱情的数学。
00:16
Now, I think that we can all agree同意
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我想大家都同意
00:18
that mathematicians数学家
are famously著名 excellent优秀 at finding发现 love.
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数学家在寻找真爱上特别在行。
00:23
But it's not just
because of our dashing潇洒 personalities个性,
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但那并不只是因为我们
精力充沛的性格,
00:27
superior优越 conversational对话的 skills技能
and excellent优秀 pencil铅笔 cases.
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超凡的对话技巧,
和极好的笔盒。
00:31
It's also because we've我们已经 actually其实 doneDONE
an awful可怕 lot of work into the maths数学
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也是因为我们真的
花了许多时间精力在数学上,
00:36
of how to find the perfect完善 partner伙伴.
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计算如何找到完美的伴侣。
00:38
Now, in my favorite喜爱 paper
on the subject学科, which哪一个 is entitled标题,
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现在,在此学科中我最爱的论文,名为
00:41
"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend女朋友" --
(Laughter笑声) --
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“为什么我没有女友”
(笑声)
00:45
Peter彼得 Backus巴科斯 tries尝试 to rate
his chances机会 of finding发现 love.
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Peter Backus 试着
计算他寻得真爱的机会。
00:49
Now, Peter's彼得 not a very greedy贪婪 man.
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现在,Peter 不是一个非常贪心的人。
00:51
Of all of the available可得到 women妇女 in the U.K.,
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在英国所有适宜的女性对象中,
00:53
all Peter's彼得 looking for
is somebody who lives生活 near him,
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Peter 所看的,
就只是那个住在他附近的对象,
00:56
somebody in the right age年龄 range范围,
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某个处于适宜的年龄阶段,
00:58
somebody with a university大学 degree,
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某个拥有大学文凭,
01:01
somebody he's likely容易 to get on well with,
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某个他很有可能相处地不错的对象,
01:03
somebody who's谁是 likely容易 to be attractive有吸引力,
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某个有魅力的女子,
01:05
somebody who's谁是 likely容易
to find him attractive有吸引力.
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以及某个认为他也富有魅力的对象。
01:08
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
01:11
And comes up with an estimate估计
of 26 women妇女 in the whole整个 of the UK联合王国.
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结果他估计在全英国
大概有 26 位此类女性。
01:17
It's not looking very good,
is it Peter彼得?
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这看来很不妙,不是吗,Peter?
01:19
Now, just to put that into perspective透视,
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我们好好思考一下这件事,
01:21
that's about 400 times fewer
than the best最好 estimates估计
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在无数聪明外星生命形式存在的情况下,
01:24
of how many许多 intelligent智能
extraterrestrial外星人 life forms形式 there are.
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那是少于 400 倍数的估计呀。
01:28
And it also gives Peter彼得
a 1 in 285,000 chance机会
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那也给了 Peter 一个
在某晚遇见一个特别的女子
01:33
of bumping碰撞 into any one
of these special特别 ladies女士们
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28 万 5 千之 1 的机会。
01:35
on a given特定 night out.
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01:37
I'd like to think
that's why mathematicians数学家
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我宁愿想着那就是为什么数学家
01:39
don't really bother
going on nights out anymore.
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不再怎么想晚上出去约会了。
01:42
The thing is that I personally亲自
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重点是,我个人其实并不同意
01:44
don't subscribe订阅
to such这样 a pessimistic悲观 view视图.
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这种悲观的看法。
01:47
Because I know,
just as well as all of you do,
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因为我知道,如同你们所有所知道的,
01:49
that love doesn't really work like that.
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爱情并不是这样发生的。
01:52
Human人的 emotion情感 isn't neatly整洁 ordered有序
and rational合理的 and easily容易 predictable可预测.
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人类的情感不是那样地秩序井然、
干净利落、逻辑清晰,以及容易预测。
01:57
But I also know that that doesn't mean
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但我也知道那并不意谓着
01:59
that mathematics数学 hasn't有没有 got something
that it can offer提供 us
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数学无法提供帮助,
02:03
because, love, as with most of life,
is full充分 of patterns模式
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因为爱情,如同生命中多数的事物一般,
充斥着许多规律,
02:06
and mathematics数学 is, ultimately最终,
all about the study研究 of patterns模式.
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而数学,最终,就是那讲求规律的学说。
02:11
Patterns模式 from predicting预测 the weather天气
to the fluctuations波动 in the stock股票 market市场,
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从预测天候,到
预测股票市场的开高走低,
02:15
to the movement运动 of the planets行星
or the growth发展 of cities城市.
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到星球的运转,或都市的发展。
02:18
And if we're being存在 honest诚实,
none没有 of those things
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如果我们对自己诚实的话,
上述那些东西,没有一个是
02:21
are exactly究竟 neatly整洁 ordered有序
and easily容易 predictable可预测, either.
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井然有序以及容易预测的。
02:24
Because I believe that mathematics数学
is so powerful强大 that it has the potential潜在
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因为我相信,数学的力量非常强大,
以至于它让我们得以以新方法
02:29
to offer提供 us a new way of looking
at almost几乎 anything.
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重新看待任何事物。
02:33
Even something as mysterious神秘 as love.
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就算是和爱情一般神秘的东西也是。
02:37
And so, to try to persuade说服 you
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为了试着说服你们
02:38
of how totally完全 amazing惊人, excellent优秀
and relevant相应 mathematics数学 is,
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数学的神妙用处,
02:43
I want to give you my top最佳 three
mathematically数学 verifiable可验证 tips提示 for love.
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我想要给大家三个最重要的
在数学上可以验证的爱情秘诀。
02:51
Okay, so Top最佳 Tip小费 #1:
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好,首先最重要的秘技一:
02:53
How to win赢得 at online线上 dating约会.
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如何赢得线上交友的机会。
02:58
So my favorite喜爱 online线上 dating约会
website网站 is OkCupidOkCupid,
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我最爱的线上交友网站是 OkCupid
(网站名:好吧,丘比特),
03:02
not least最小 because it was started开始
by a group of mathematicians数学家.
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这并不仅仅因为这网站
是由一群数学家所架设的。
03:05
Now, because they're mathematicians数学家,
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因为他们是数学家,
03:07
they have been collecting搜集 data数据
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他们已经搜集了
03:09
on everybody每个人 who uses使用 their site现场
for almost几乎 a decade.
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近乎这十年来所有
他们网站使用者的资料。
03:11
And they've他们已经 been trying
to search搜索 for patterns模式
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他们试着寻找
03:14
in the way that we talk about ourselves我们自己
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我们在线上
谈论自己的方式的模式,
03:16
and the way that we
interact相互作用 with each other
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以及我们和他人互动的模式。
03:18
on an online线上 dating约会 website网站.
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03:19
And they've他们已经 come up with some
seriously认真地 interesting有趣 findings发现.
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他们发现了一些重要的有趣结果。
03:22
But my particular特定 favorite喜爱
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但我特别喜欢的结果之一是
03:24
is that it turns out
that on an online线上 dating约会 website网站,
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在线上交友网站上
03:27
how attractive有吸引力 you are
does not dictate听写 how popular流行 you are,
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你的魅力程度并无法
预测你的受欢迎程度,
03:33
and actually其实, having people
think that you're ugly丑陋
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事实上,让人们觉得你很丑
03:37
can work to your advantage优点.
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可以让你拥有优势。
03:40
Let me show显示 you how this works作品.
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让我向各位展示这是怎么一回事。
03:42
In a thankfully感激地 voluntary自主性
section部分 of OkCupidOkCupid,
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在 OkCupid 的一个志愿栏目中,
03:46
you are allowed允许 to rate
how attractive有吸引力 you think people are
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你可以评价人们的魅力值,
03:49
on a scale规模 between之间 1 and 5.
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从 1 到 5 。
03:52
Now, if we compare比较 this score得分了,
the average平均 score得分了,
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现在,如果我们比较这个分数,
平均分数,
03:55
to how many许多 messages消息 a
selection选择 of people receive接收,
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有多少人收到信息,
03:58
you can begin开始 to get a sense
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你就可以开始理解
03:59
of how attractiveness吸引力 links链接 to popularity声望
on an online线上 dating约会 website网站.
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在一个线上约会网站上
魅力指数与受欢迎程度有关。
04:03
This is the graph图形 that the OkCupidOkCupid guys
have come up with.
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这是 OkCupid 得到的图表。
04:07
And the important重要 thing to notice注意
is that it's not totally完全 true真正
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一件重要的值得注意的事是
04:10
that the more attractive有吸引力 you are,
the more messages消息 you get.
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并不是越有魅力的人,
收到的信息越多。
04:13
But the question arises出现 then
of what is it about people up here
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问题是,为什么上面的这些人
04:16
who are so much more popular流行
than people down here,
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比下面这些人要受欢迎得多,
04:21
even though虽然 they have the
same相同 score得分了 of attractiveness吸引力?
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即便他们都有相同的魅力值?
04:24
And the reason原因 why is that it's not just
straightforward直截了当 looks容貌 that are important重要.
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原因是,并不是直观的外貌是重要的。
04:28
So let me try to illustrate说明 their
findings发现 with an example.
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让我来谈谈他们的发现,
以一个案例说明。
04:31
So if you take someone有人 like
Portia波西亚 de Rossi罗西, for example,
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如果你拿 Portia de Rossi 为例,
04:35
everybody每个人 agrees同意 that Portia波西亚 de Rossi罗西
is a very beautiful美丽 woman女人.
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每个人都同意 Portia de Rossi
是个非常美丽的女人,
04:40
Nobody没有人 thinks that she's ugly丑陋,
but she's not a supermodel名模, either.
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没有人觉得她丑,但她也不是超模。
04:43
If you compare比较 Portia波西亚 de Rossi罗西
to someone有人 like Sarah莎拉 Jessica杰西卡 Parker帕克,
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如果你拿某个人,比如
Sarah Jessica Parker
(译者注:欲望都市女主角)来和她比较
04:48
now, a lot of people,
myself included包括, I should say,
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许多人,包括我自己,我应该会说,
04:51
think that Sarah莎拉 Jessica杰西卡 Parker帕克
is seriously认真地 fabulous极好
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Sarah Jessica Parker 魅力极为出众,
04:56
and possibly或者 one of the
most beautiful美丽 creatures生物
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有可能是地表上
04:58
to have ever have walked
on the face面对 of the Earth地球.
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最美丽的物种之一。
05:01
But some other people,
i.e., most of the Internet互联网,
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但许多其他人,比如,大多数的网友
05:07
seem似乎 to think that she looks容貌
a bit like a horse. (Laughter笑声)
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似乎都认为她看起来像马。(笑声)
05:13
Now, I think that if you ask people
how attractive有吸引力 they thought
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如果你问人们他们觉得自己有多美,
05:17
Sarah莎拉 Jessica杰西卡 Parker帕克
or Portia波西亚 de Rossi罗西 were,
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Sarah Jessica Parker
或 Portia de Rossi
05:19
and you ask them to give
them a score得分了 between之间 1 and 5,
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你要他们给自己打分,从 1 到 5,
05:22
I reckon估计 that they'd他们会 average平均 out
to have roughly大致 the same相同 score得分了.
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我猜他们也会大约给一个
和大家都差不多的数字。
05:25
But the way that people would vote投票
would be very different不同.
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但是人们投票的方式各自不同。
05:27
So Portia's鲍西娅 scores分数 would
all be clustered集群 around the 4
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因此 Portia 的分数会聚集在 4 分左右,
05:30
because everybody每个人 agrees同意
that she's very beautiful美丽,
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因为所有人都同意,她非常美丽,
05:32
whereas Sarah莎拉 Jessica杰西卡 Parker帕克
completely全然 divides分歧 opinion意见.
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然而人们对 Sarah Jessica Parker
却有截然不同的意见。
05:35
There'd这红色 be a huge巨大 spread传播 in her scores分数.
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她的分差悬殊很大。
05:38
And actually其实 it's this spread传播 that counts计数.
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然而,事实上,就是那分差别具意义,
05:40
It's this spread传播
that makes品牌 you more popular流行
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那差异让你
05:42
on an online线上 Internet互联网 dating约会 website网站.
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在交友网站上受欢迎。
05:45
So what that means手段 then
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所以那意味着
05:46
is that if some people
think that you're attractive有吸引力,
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如果有些人认为你别具魅力,
05:48
you're actually其实 better off
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你最好有其他人认为
05:50
having some other people
think that you're a massive大规模的 minger明格.
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你很丑。
05:55
That's much better
than everybody每个人 just thinking思维
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那远优于所有人认为
05:58
that you're the cute可爱 girl女孩 next下一个 door.
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你是邻家的可爱女孩。
05:59
Now, I think this begins开始
makes品牌 a bit more sense
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当你们开始思考一下
这些寄送信息的人的话,
06:02
when you think in terms条款 of the people
who are sending发出 these messages消息.
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这开始变得合理些了。
06:05
So let's say that you think
somebody's某人的 attractive有吸引力,
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这么说吧,假设你认为那个人很美,
06:07
but you suspect疑似 that other people
won't惯于 necessarily一定 be that interested有兴趣.
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但你同时猜想其他人并不会
和你有同样的审美观。
06:11
That means手段 there's
less competition竞争 for you
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那就意味着,你的竞争对手略少,
06:14
and it's an extra额外 incentive激励
for you to get in touch触摸.
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这就给你增加了额外的动机
去与他/她认识。
06:16
Whereas compare比较 that
to if you think somebody is attractive有吸引力
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与之相对的情况是
你认为某人很有吸引力,
06:19
but you suspect疑似 that everybody每个人
is going to think they're attractive有吸引力.
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但你猜想所有其他的人
都认为那人很有吸引力,
06:23
Well, why would you bother
humiliating羞辱 yourself你自己, let's be honest诚实?
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嗯,让我们面对事实
为什么要自取其辱呢?
06:26
Here's这里的 where the really
interesting有趣 part部分 comes.
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这就是最有趣的部分。
06:28
Because when people choose选择 the pictures图片
that they use on an online线上 dating约会 website网站,
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因为当人们去选择他们
在交友网站上使用的照片时,
06:33
they often经常 try to minimize最小化 the things
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他们总是试图最小化
06:35
that they think some people
will find unattractive没有吸引力.
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其他人认为不吸引人之处的可能性。
06:39
The classic经典 example is people
who are, perhaps也许, a little bit overweight超重
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最经典的例子是,
那些体重略重的人
06:43
deliberately故意 choosing选择
a very cropped裁剪 photo照片,
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故意选择一个
剪裁非常不正的照片,
06:46
or bald men男人, for example,
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例如那些秃顶的男士,
06:48
deliberately故意 choosing选择 pictures图片
where they're wearing穿着 hats帽子.
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故意去选择他们带着帽子的照片。
06:51
But actually其实 this is the opposite对面
of what you should do
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但你的行为是与你的目标相悖的,
06:54
if you want to be successful成功.
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如果你想要在网上交友成功。
06:55
You should really, instead代替, play up to
whatever随你 it is that makes品牌 you different不同,
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你真的应该,去选择
让你看起来与众不同的照片,
07:00
even if you think that some people
will find it unattractive没有吸引力.
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即便你认为某些人会对此失去兴趣。
07:04
Because the people who fancy幻想 you
are just going to fancy幻想 you anyway无论如何,
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因为那些喜欢你的人
无论如何都会去喜欢你,
07:07
and the unimportant不重要 losers失败者 who don't,
well, they only play up to your advantage优点.
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而那些不重要的路人
只是渲染你的优势。
07:12
Okay, Top最佳 Tip小费 #2:
How to pick the perfect完善 partner伙伴.
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好了,最高秘诀 2 号:
如何选择完美的伴侣。
07:14
So let's imagine想像 then
that you're a roaring咆哮 success成功
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让我们想象你的约会
07:17
on the dating约会 scene现场.
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精彩成功。
07:19
But the question arises出现
of how do you then convert兑换 that success成功
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但问题来了
你如何将那成功的约会
07:23
into longer-term长期 happiness幸福
and in particular特定,
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转变成长期的快乐,尤其是,
07:27
how do you decide决定
when is the right time to settle解决 down?
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你要如何选择
在哪个时刻安定下来?
07:31
Now generally通常,
it's not advisable可取 to just cash现金 in
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一般来说,
并不建议人们立刻
07:34
and marry结婚 the first person
who comes along沿
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与第一个出现
07:36
and shows节目 you any interest利益 at all.
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对你表达好感的人结婚。
07:38
But, equally一样, you don't really
want to leave离开 it too long
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但是,一般来说,如果你想要
最大化你未来数十年幸福婚姻的机会,
07:41
if you want to maximize最大化 your
chance机会 of long-term长期 happiness幸福.
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你也不愿等待太久。
07:44
As my favorite喜爱 author作者,
Jane Austen奥斯丁, puts看跌期权 it,
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我最喜欢的作家简·奥斯汀这样说,
07:47
"An unmarried未婚 woman女人 of seven and twenty二十
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“一个未婚的 27 岁女子
07:50
can never hope希望 to feel or
inspire启发 affection感情 again."
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就别指望再能感受或激发爱情了。”
07:53
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
07:55
Thanks谢谢 a lot, Jane.
What do you know about love?
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这太严重了,简。
你对爱了解多少呢?
07:59
So the question is then,
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那么问题来了,
08:01
how do you know when
is the right time to settle解决 down
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你怎么知道哪个时刻
是该要安定下来的时刻,
08:03
given特定 all the people
that you can date日期 in your lifetime一生?
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毕竟生命中你有很多可能的对象?
08:06
Thankfully感激地, there's a rather delicious美味的 bit
of mathematics数学 that we can use
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幸好,我们可以运用一点儿数学
08:10
to help us out here, called
optimal最佳 stopping停止 theory理论.
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来帮助我们计算解决这个问题,
名叫 “最优停止理论”。
08:12
So let's imagine想像 then,
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那么让我们来想象一下,
08:14
that you start开始 dating约会 when you're 15
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你在 15 岁的时候开始交往,
08:17
and ideally理想, you'd like to be married已婚
by the time that you're 35.
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理想状态下,你在 35 岁的时候会结婚。
08:21
And there's a number of people
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你的人生中
08:22
that you could potentially可能
date日期 across横过 your lifetime一生,
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有很多潜在的约会对象,
08:25
and they'll他们会 be at varying不同
levels水平 of goodness善良.
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他们都有各自的优点。
08:27
Now the rules规则 are that once一旦
you cash现金 in and get married已婚,
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规则是,你一旦跳进婚姻,
08:30
you can't look ahead to see
what you could have had,
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你就不能继续前进寻找
你可能可以有的对象,
08:32
and equally一样, you can't go back
and change更改 your mind心神.
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你也不能回头来改变你的主意。
08:35
In my experience经验 at least最小,
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我个人的经验看来,
08:37
I find that typically一般 people don't
much like being存在 recalled回顾
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一般人们不希望
在被拒绝又过了多年后被找回来,
也许只有我这样想。
08:39
years年份 after being存在 passed通过 up
for somebody else其他, or that's just me.
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08:45
So the math数学 says then
that what you should do
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数学告诉我们
08:48
in the first 37 percent百分
of your dating约会 window窗口,
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你应该拒绝认为会和
在你人生约会周期
08:51
you should just reject拒绝 everybody每个人
as serious严重 marriage婚姻 potential潜在.
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前 37% 时段出现的任何人
有严肃认真的婚姻关系。
08:55
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
08:57
And then, you should pick the
next下一个 person that comes along沿
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接着,你要选择下一个人,
09:01
that is better than everybody每个人
that you've seen看到 before.
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那个比你以前约会对象都好的人。
09:04
So here's这里的 the example.
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这里举个例子。
09:05
Now if you do this, it can be
mathematically数学 proven证明, in fact事实,
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如果你这么做,从数学证明来看
可以认为,事实上
09:08
that this is the best最好 possible可能 way
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这可能是最好的选择
09:10
of maximizing最大化 your chances机会
of finding发现 the perfect完善 partner伙伴.
174
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来最大化你找到完美伴侣的机会。
09:15
Now unfortunately不幸, I have to tell you that
this method方法 does come with some risks风险.
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现在不幸的是,我必须告诉你
这个方法也是有风险的。
09:20
For instance, imagine想像 if
your perfect完善 partner伙伴 appeared出现
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比如,想象一下,假设你的完美伴侣
09:25
during your first 37 percent百分.
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出现在你约会历程的前 37%
09:28
Now, unfortunately不幸,
you'd have to reject拒绝 them.
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那就很不幸了,
你会拒绝他们。
09:30
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
09:33
Now, if you're following以下 the maths数学,
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如果你相信数学,
09:35
I'm afraid害怕 no one else其他 comes along沿
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恐怕你不会再找到
09:37
that's better than anyone任何人
you've seen看到 before,
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比你以往见过更好的对象,
09:39
so you have to go on
rejecting拒绝 everyone大家 and die alone单独.
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你就会持续拒绝每个人
然后孤独终老。
09:44
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
09:46
Probably大概 surrounded包围 by cats
nibbling at your remains遗迹.
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可能会被猫咪包围
一点点啃食你的遗骸。
09:51
Okay, another另一个 risk风险 is,
let's imagine想像, instead代替,
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好,另一个风险是,
让我们想象,相反的,
09:55
that the first people that you dated过时的
in your first 37 percent百分
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你约会历程前 37% 里第一个对象
09:58
are just incredibly令人难以置信 dull平淡,
boring无聊, terrible可怕 people.
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极度愚蠢,无聊又很糟糕。
10:02
Now, that's okay, because
you're in your rejection拒绝 phase,
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2725
没事,因为你还在拒绝对象的阶段,
10:05
so thats那是 fine,
you can reject拒绝 them.
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没问题,
你可以拒绝他们。
10:07
But then imagine想像, the next下一个
person to come along沿
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但想象一下,下一个出现的人
10:10
is just marginally轻微 less boring无聊,
dull平淡 and terrible可怕
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4338
只是没那么无聊,愚蠢
10:14
than everybody每个人 that you've seen看到 before.
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1882
比你以前的对象都略好那么一点儿。
10:16
Now, if you are following以下 the maths数学,
I'm afraid害怕 you have to marry结婚 them
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如果你遵循数学,
恐怕你要和他们结婚
10:20
and end结束 up in a relationship关系
which哪一个 is, frankly坦率地说, suboptimal次优.
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3413
然后沉浸在一段,
实话说,次优的关系中。
10:24
Sorry about that.
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1083
很抱歉。
10:25
But I do think that there's
an opportunity机会 here
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2200
但我认为,机会还是有的
10:27
for Hallmark霍尔马克 to cash现金 in on
and really cater迎合 for this market市场.
198
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3150
贺曼公司迎合市场需求
10:30
A Valentine's情人节 Day card like this.
(Laughter笑声)
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出售这样的情人节贺卡。
(笑声)
10:32
"My darling宠儿 husband丈夫, you
are marginally轻微 less terrible可怕
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4025
“我亲爱的丈夫,你没有
10:36
than the first 37 percent百分
of people I dated过时的."
201
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3045
我约会历程中前 37% 的男士
那么糟糕。”
10:39
It's actually其实 more romantic浪漫
than I normally一般 manage管理.
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这比一般的贺卡浪漫很多。
10:45
Okay, so this method方法 doesn't give
you a 100 percent百分 success成功 rate,
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4682
这个数学方法不能保证
100% 的成功率,
10:50
but there's no other possible可能
strategy战略 that can do any better.
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3303
但也没有更好的策略了。
10:53
And actually其实, in the wild野生,
there are certain某些 types类型
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事实上,在动物界,
某个特定种类的鱼
遵循使用这样的策略。
10:56
of fish which哪一个 follow跟随 and
employ采用 this exact精确 strategy战略.
206
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3713
10:59
So they reject拒绝 every一切 possible可能
suitor起诉者 that turns up
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在交配期,它们拒绝
11:02
in the first 37 percent百分
of the mating交配 season季节,
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出现在前 37% 的每个求婚者,
11:05
and then they pick the next下一个 fish
that comes along沿 after that window窗口
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3531
接着它们选择 37% 后出现的下一个
11:08
that's, I don't know, bigger and burlierburlier
210
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2056
比所见过的鱼
11:11
than all of the fish
that they've他们已经 seen看到 before.
211
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体型更加庞大,更加结实的鱼。
11:13
I also think that subconsciously下意识,
humans人类, we do sort分类 of do this anyway无论如何.
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我想作为人类
我们潜意识里也在做同样的选择。
11:18
We give ourselves我们自己 a little bit of time
to play the field领域,
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3417
我们给自己更多时间寻找,
11:21
get a feel for the marketplace市井
or whatever随你 when we're young年轻.
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3502
在我们年轻的时候
感受婚恋市场。
11:25
And then we only start开始 looking seriously认真地
at potential潜在 marriage婚姻 candidates候选人
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我们只有在 20 岁年龄段的中后期
11:30
once一旦 we hit击中 our mid-to-late中期到晚期 20s.
216
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1890
才会很真寻找潜在的结婚对象。
11:31
I think this is conclusive确凿 proof证明,
if ever it were needed需要,
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2803
我想这证明了,
即使不确定是否需要,
11:34
that everybody's每个人的 brains大脑 are prewired预配
to be just a little bit mathematical数学的.
218
682716
4506
每个人的大脑
都预配了点儿数学能力。
11:39
Okay, so that was Top最佳 Tip小费 #2.
219
687616
1861
好,上述就是最高秘诀 2 号。
11:41
Now, Top最佳 Tip小费 #3: How to avoid避免 divorce离婚.
220
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3253
现在,最高秘诀 3 号:如何避免离婚。
11:44
Okay, so let's imagine想像 then
that you picked采摘的 your perfect完善 partner伙伴
221
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3138
好的,让我们想象一下
你找到了你的完美对象
11:47
and you're settling解决 into
a lifelong终身 relationship关系 with them.
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4777
你和他/她进入了一生的婚姻关系。
11:52
Now, I like to think that everybody每个人
would ideally理想 like to avoid避免 divorce离婚,
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我假设每个人都不希望离婚,
11:56
apart距离 from, I don't know,
Piers皮尔斯 Morgan's摩根 wife妻子, maybe?
224
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4366
当然,也许除了 Piers Morgan 的太太?
12:02
But it's a sad伤心 fact事实 of modern现代 life
225
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2290
可是,现代婚姻一个悲伤的事实
12:04
that 1 in 2 marriages婚姻 in the
States状态 ends结束 in divorce离婚,
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3809
就是美国离婚率高达 50%,
12:08
with the rest休息 of the world世界
not being存在 far behind背后.
227
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3301
世界其他国家也离这个数据不远。
12:11
Now, you can be forgiven原谅, perhaps也许
228
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2099
当然,你可以认为
12:13
for thinking思维 that the arguments参数
that precede优于 a marital婚姻 breakup分手
229
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3660
婚姻破裂的原因
12:17
are not an ideal理想 candidate候选人
for mathematical数学的 investigation调查.
230
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3533
不是数学运算理想的数据源。
12:20
For one thing, it's very hard to know
231
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1900
一方面来说,很难了解到
12:22
what you should be measuring测量
or what you should be quantifying量化.
232
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3057
你该去测量什么
或者是你该去量化什么。
12:25
But this didn't stop a psychologist心理学家,
John约翰 Gottman高特曼, who did exactly究竟 that.
233
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6573
但这并没有阻止心理学家
John Gottman 做这样的研究。
12:32
Gottman高特曼 observed观察到的 hundreds数以百计 of couples情侣
having a conversation会话
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5195
Gottman 观察了数百对夫妇的对谈
12:37
and recorded记录, well,
everything you can think of.
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2462
尽可能录下来所有信息。
12:40
So he recorded记录 what was said
in the conversation会话,
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2487
记录了对话的内容,
12:42
he recorded记录 their skin皮肤 conductivity电导率,
237
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皮肤的传导性,
12:44
he recorded记录 their facial面部 expressions表达式,
238
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1920
面部表情,
12:46
their heart rates利率, their blood血液 pressure压力,
239
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2340
心跳,血压,
12:48
basically基本上 everything apart距离 from whether是否
or not the wife妻子 was actually其实 always right,
240
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6450
基本上除了“太太永远是对的”
以外的所有东西,
12:55
which哪一个 incidentally顺便 she totally完全 is.
241
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3024
当然,太太永远是对的。
12:58
But what Gottman高特曼 and his team球队 found发现
242
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2920
但是,Gottman 和他的团队发现
13:01
was that one of the
most important重要 predictors预测
243
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2504
最能够准确预测
13:03
for whether是否 or not a couple一对
is going to get divorced离婚
244
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2150
这对夫妻是否未来会离婚的
13:05
was how positive or negative each
partner伙伴 was being存在 in the conversation会话.
245
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5100
是双方在对话过程中
积极还是消极。
13:11
Now, couples情侣 that were very low-risk低风险
246
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2612
那些离婚风险很低的夫妻
13:13
scored进球 a lot more positive points
on Gottman's高特曼的 scale规模 than negative.
247
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4227
在 Gottman 的测试中得到了
更多正面而不是负面的分数。
13:17
Whereas bad relationships关系,
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2140
相反的,在糟糕的关系中,
13:20
by which哪一个 I mean, probably大概
going to get divorced离婚,
249
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2792
我是指那些可能离婚的夫妻,
13:22
they found发现 themselves他们自己 getting得到
into a spiral螺旋 of negativity消极.
250
790793
4612
他们发现自己沉浸在消极的漩涡中。
13:27
Now just by using运用 these very simple简单 ideas思路,
251
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2353
就用这些非常简单的方法,
13:29
Gottman高特曼 and his group were able能够 to predict预测
252
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2502
Gottman 和他的团队能够准确预测
13:32
whether是否 a given特定 couple一对
was going to get divorced离婚
253
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2843
一对夫妻是否会离婚,
13:35
with a 90 percent百分 accuracy准确性.
254
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2655
准确率高达 90%
13:37
But it wasn't until直到 he teamed联手 up
with a mathematician数学家, James詹姆士 Murray穆雷,
255
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3394
但是,直到他与
数学家 James Murray 联手,
13:41
that they really started开始 to understand理解
256
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2139
他们才真正找出
13:43
what causes原因 these negativity消极 spirals螺旋
and how they occur发生.
257
811291
4310
那些消极漩涡是
如何产生,为什么产生的。
13:47
And the results结果 that they found发现
258
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1707
结果是他们发现
13:49
I think are just incredibly令人难以置信
impressively令人印象深刻 simple简单 and interesting有趣.
259
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4359
我认为不可思议太令人惊叹
的简单而有趣。
13:53
So these equations方程, they predict预测 how
the wife妻子 or husband丈夫 is going to respond响应
260
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4338
这些算式,他们用来预测
妻子或是丈夫是如何去回应
13:58
in their next下一个 turn of the conversation会话,
261
826005
1966
他们下一段对话,
13:59
how positive or negative
they're going to be.
262
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2128
他们的积极或消极程度是多少。
14:02
And these equations方程, they depend依靠 on
263
830099
1797
这些算式,取决于
14:03
the mood心情 of the person
when they're on their own拥有,
264
831896
2346
当他们独处时各自的情绪,
14:06
the mood心情 of the person when
they're with their partner伙伴,
265
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2614
当他们和伴侣在一起时候的情绪,
14:08
but most importantly重要的, they depend依靠 on
266
836856
1989
但最重要的是,
14:10
how much the husband丈夫 and wife妻子
influence影响 one another另一个.
267
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取决于丈夫和妻子相互间的影响。
14:13
Now, I think it's important重要
to point out at this stage阶段,
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在这个阶段我认为最重要的是,
14:16
that these exact精确 equations方程
have also been shown显示
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这个一模一样的算式
14:19
to be perfectly完美 able能够 at describing说明
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同时也可以完美预测
14:22
what happens发生 between之间 two
countries国家 in an arms武器 race种族.
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两个国家是否会开战。
14:26
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
14:30
So that -- an arguing争论 couple一对
spiraling螺旋式上升 into negativity消极
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因此一对沉浸于消极情绪
14:33
and teetering摇摇欲坠 on the brink边缘 of divorce离婚 --
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在离婚边缘摇摆的夫妻--
14:35
is actually其实 mathematically数学 equivalent当量 to
the beginning开始 of a nuclear war战争.
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实际在数学上等同于
即将开始一场核战争。
14:40
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
14:42
But the really important重要 term术语
in this equation方程
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事实上,这个算式最重要的部分
14:45
is the influence影响 that people
have on one another另一个,
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是人们给对方带来的影响,
14:47
and in particular特定, something called
the negativity消极 threshold.
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尤其是消极阈值。
14:50
Now, the negativity消极 threshold,
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消极阈值,
14:52
you can think of as
how annoying恼人的 the husband丈夫 can be
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你可以认为它指的是
丈夫讨厌到什么程度
14:57
before the wife妻子 starts启动 to get
really pissed生气 off, and vice versa反之亦然.
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就能惹到妻子真的暴怒,
或者是相反。
15:01
Now, I always thought that good marriages婚姻
were about compromise妥协 and understanding理解
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889254
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我一直认为美好的婚姻
是基于妥协和理解
15:06
and allowing允许 the person to
have the space空间 to be themselves他们自己.
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并且给对方留足独处空间。
15:09
So I would have thought that perhaps也许
the most successful成功 relationships关系
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我会想,最成功的关系是
15:12
were ones那些 where there was
a really high negativity消极 threshold.
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当那里有非常高的消极阈值时
15:16
Where couples情侣 let things go
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夫妻共同选择不去理会这些问题。
15:17
and only brought things up if
they really were a big deal合同.
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905692
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只有在非常严重的时候
才会严肃讨论。
15:20
But actually其实, the mathematics数学
and subsequent随后 findings发现 by the team球队
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908487
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事实上,团队得出的
数学运算结果和后续研究成果显示
15:24
have shown显示 the exact精确 opposite对面 is true真正.
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912023
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完全相反的结果。
15:27
The best最好 couples情侣,
or the most successful成功 couples情侣,
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915318
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最完美的夫妻,
最成功的夫妻,
15:29
are the ones那些 with a really low
negativity消极 threshold.
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917707
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有着很低的消极阈值。
15:33
These are the couples情侣 that don't
let anything go unnoticed被忽视
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这些夫妻不会忽视矛盾
15:37
and allow允许 each other
some room房间 to complain抱怨.
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给对方抱怨的空间。
15:40
These are the couples情侣 that are continually不断
trying to repair修理 their own拥有 relationship关系,
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928399
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这些夫妻持续努力
修复他们的关系,
15:45
that have a much more positive
outlook外表 on their marriage婚姻.
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他们对自己的婚姻
有着非常积极的预期。
15:48
Couples情侣 that don't let things go
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他们不会忽略矛盾
15:50
and couples情侣 that don't let trivial不重要的 things
end结束 up being存在 a really big deal合同.
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938516
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他们不会让一件件琐碎的小事
堆积成为巨大的问题。
15:56
Now of course课程, it takes bit more than
just a low negativity消极 threshold
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944426
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当然,这不仅仅是
一个低消极阈值
16:02
and not compromising折中 to
have a successful成功 relationship关系.
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950023
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和对成功关系毫不妥协的态度。
16:06
But I think that it's quite相当 interesting有趣
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但我认为,很有趣的是
16:08
to know that there is really
mathematical数学的 evidence证据
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真的有数学证据
16:11
to say that you should never
let the sun太阳 go down on your anger愤怒.
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959053
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来证明你永远不该长时间
积攒愤怒,太阳要下山了。
(译者注:这句话出自圣经)
16:14
So those are my top最佳 three tips提示
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1708
上述就是我的三条最高秘诀,
16:16
of how maths数学 can help you
with love and relationships关系.
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有关数学如何让你有
更美好的爱情和关系。
16:19
But I hope希望
that aside在旁边 from their use as tips提示,
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我希望,除了作为爱情秘诀,
16:21
they also give you a little bit of insight眼光
into the power功率 of mathematics数学.
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969826
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它们也展示了数学的力量。
16:25
Because for me, equations方程
and symbols符号 aren't just a thing.
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4365
对我来说,算式和符号
不仅仅是一样东西。
16:30
They're a voice语音 that speaks说话 out
about the incredible难以置信 richness丰富 of nature性质
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978293
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它们表达出
自然令人赞叹的丰富性
16:35
and the startling触目惊心 simplicity简单
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以及简化
16:36
in the patterns模式 that twist and turn
and warp and evolve发展 all around us,
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4455
那些我们身边
扭曲,旋转,包围,进化的事物,
16:41
from how the world世界 works作品 to how we behave表现.
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从世界是如何运作的,
到人类行为举止。
16:44
So I hope希望 that perhaps也许,
for just a couple一对 of you,
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2298
我希望,也许你们中的一部分人
16:46
a little bit of insight眼光 into
the mathematics数学 of love
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能够了解一些
爱的数学运算,
16:48
can persuade说服 you to have
a little bit more love for mathematics数学.
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能够让你爱数学稍微多一点。
16:52
Thank you.
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谢谢。
16:53
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Zhiting Chen
Reviewed by Geoff Chen

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hannah Fry - Complexity theorist
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future.

Why you should listen

Hannah Fry completed her PhD in fluid dynamics in early 2011 with an emphasis on how liquid droplets move. Then, after working as an aerodynamicist in the motorsport industry, she began work on an interdisciplinary project in complexity sciences at University College London. Hannah’s current research focusses on discovering new connections between mathematically described systems and human interaction at the largest scale.

More profile about the speaker
Hannah Fry | Speaker | TED.com