TED2012
James Hansen: Why I must speak out about climate change
James Hansen: 我为什么要声讨气候变化
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顶级气候学家James Hansen讲述他参与的全球气候变化科研与辩论。他向我们展示了气候变化的强有力的证据，以及他为什么对未来充满了担忧。
James Hansen - Climatologist
James Hansen has made key insights into our global climate -- and inspired a generation of activists and scientists. Full bio
James Hansen has made key insights into our global climate -- and inspired a generation of activists and scientists. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
What do I know
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我知道了些什么，
00:17
that would cause me,
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会驱使我这样一个
00:19
a reticent, Midwestern scientist,
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沉默寡言、来自中西部的科学家
00:21
to get myself arrested
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到白宫门前去抗议
00:24
in front of the White House protesting?
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而被捕？
00:27
And what would you do
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而你又会怎样做
00:29
if you knew what I know?
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如果你知道我所知道的？
00:31
Let's start with how I got to this point.
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我们从我的成长历程讲起。
00:35
I was lucky to grow up
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我很幸运。
00:37
at a time when it was not difficult
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在我成长的那个年代，
00:40
for the child of a tenant farmer
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一个佃农的孩子
00:42
to make his way to the state university.
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想上州立大学还不那么难。
00:44
And I was really lucky
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我还不是一般得幸运。
00:47
to go to the University of Iowa
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我大学去了爱荷华州立大学。
00:49
where I could study under Professor James Van Allen
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在那里，我得到了James Van Allen教授的悉心指教。
00:52
who built instruments
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Van Allen教授为美国最早的卫星
00:54
for the first U.S. satellites.
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制造仪器。
00:56
Professor Van Allen told me
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教授告诉我，
00:59
about observations of Venus,
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对金星的观察显示，
01:02
that there was intense microwave radiation.
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金星上有强烈的微波辐射。
01:04
Did it mean that Venus had an ionosphere?
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这是表明金星上有电离层，
01:07
Or was Venus extremely hot?
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还是说金星上非常热？
01:09
The right answer,
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经苏联的金星航天器肯定，
01:11
confirmed by the Soviet Venera spacecraft,
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正确的答案是，
01:16
was that Venus was very hot --
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金星上非常热——
01:19
900 degrees Fahrenheit.
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温度高达900华氏度。
01:21
And it was kept hot
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因为金星上空有一层厚厚的二氧化碳气层，
01:23
by a thick carbon dioxide atmosphere.
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这个高温得以一直保持。
01:26
I was fortunate to join NASA
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我非常幸运地加入了国家航空航天局，
01:28
and successfully propose
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并成功地提出了一项
01:30
an experiment to fly to Venus.
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飞往金星的实验。
01:32
Our instrument took this image
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我们的仪器拍摄到这张照片。
01:35
of the veil of Venus,
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照片上正是金星的面纱。
01:37
which turned out to be
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这层面纱实际上是
01:39
a smog of sulfuric acid.
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一层含硫酸的雾。
01:42
But while our instrument was being built,
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但就在我们制造仪器期间，
01:45
I became involved in calculations
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我参与
01:47
of the greenhouse effect
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计算地球上的
01:49
here on Earth,
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温室效应，
01:51
because we realized
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因为我们意识到
01:53
that our atmospheric composition was changing.
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我们的大气层成分正在发生变化。
01:56
Eventually, I resigned
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最终，我辞去了
01:58
as principal investigator
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我们金星实验组
02:00
on our Venus experiment
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首席调查员的职务，
02:02
because a planet changing before our eyes
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因为一颗就在我们眼前变化的行星
02:05
is more interesting and important.
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要更有趣，也更重要。
02:07
Its changes will affect all of humanity.
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它的变化会影响到全人类。
02:10
The greenhouse effect had been well understood
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一个世纪来，
02:12
for more than a century.
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人类已充分地了解了温室效应。
02:14
British physicist John Tyndall,
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英国物理学家John Tyndall
02:16
in the 1850's,
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在19世纪50年代时
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made laboratory measurements
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对红外辐射
02:20
of the infrared radiation,
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也就是热辐射
02:22
which is heat.
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进行了实验测量。
02:24
And he showed that gasses such as CO2 absorb heat,
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他向我们展示，二氧化碳等气体吸收热，
02:27
thus acting like a blanket
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就像是一层毯子，
02:30
warming Earth's surface.
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给地球的表面加温。
02:32
I worked with other scientists
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我和其他科学家
02:34
to analyze Earth climate observations.
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一起分析地球的气候变化。
02:38
In 1981,
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在1981年，
02:40
we published an article in Science magazine
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我们在《科学》杂志上发表了一篇论文，
02:43
concluding that observed warming
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我们的结论是，
02:45
of 0.4 degrees Celsius
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在上个世纪，
02:47
in the prior century
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地球的温度提升了0.4摄氏度，
02:49
was consistent with the greenhouse effect
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这和更多的二氧化碳
02:51
of increasing CO2.
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带来温室效应是相符的。
02:53
That Earth would likely warm in the 1980's,
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地球很有可能会在20世纪80年代变暖，
02:56
and warming would exceed
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到20世纪末，
02:58
the noise level of random weather
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地球变暖的严重程度将超过
03:00
by the end of the century.
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随机天气带来的噪音干扰。
03:02
We also said that the 21st century
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我们还提出到21世纪
03:05
would see shifting climate zones,
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地球的气候区将发生变化，
03:07
creation of drought-prone regions
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北美和亚洲会
03:09
in North America and Asia,
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出现易旱区；
03:11
erosion of ice sheets, rising sea levels
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冰盖将融化，海平面将上升，
03:14
and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.
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传说中的西北通道将打开。
03:17
All of these impacts
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从我们发表论文起，
03:19
have since either happened
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所有的这些影响都已经发生了，
03:21
or are now well under way.
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或正在发生。
03:23
That paper was reported on the front page of the New York Times
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我们那篇论文上了《纽约时报》的头版，
03:27
and led to me testifying to Congress
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在20世纪80年代，
03:29
in the 1980's,
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我得以向国会证明我的发现。
03:31
testimony in which I emphasized
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在陈述中，我强调
03:34
that global warming increases both extremes
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全球变暖会加剧地球水循环的
03:37
of the Earth's water cycle.
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两个极端。
03:40
Heatwaves and droughts on one hand,
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一方面，变暖会直接
03:42
directly from the warming,
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加剧热浪和干旱，
03:44
but also, because a warmer atmosphere
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但同时，因为一个更暖的大气层
03:46
holds more water vapor
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会保存更多的水汽
03:48
with its latent energy,
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和其潜在能量，
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rainfall will become
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降雨活动也将变得
03:52
in more extreme events.
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更为极端。
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There will be stronger storms and greater flooding.
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风暴会变得更强，洪水会变得更猛烈。
03:57
Global warming hoopla
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全球变暖像是个套圈游戏，
04:00
became time-consuming
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我在上面花的时间越来越多，
04:02
and distracted me from doing science --
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都没心思做科研了——
04:04
partly because I had complained
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其中一个原因是我之前抱怨说
04:06
that the White House altered my testimony.
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白宫修改了我的证词。
04:09
So I decided to go back
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于是我决定回归到
04:11
to strictly doing science
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只做科研，
04:13
and leave the communication to others.
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把这些跟人沟通的活儿都留给别人。
04:17
By 15 years later,
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15年后，
04:20
evidence of global warming was much stronger.
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全球变暖的证据越来越明显。
04:23
Most of the things mentioned in our 1981 paper
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我们在1981的那篇论文里提到的大多数东西
04:26
were facts.
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都变成了事实。
04:28
I had the privilege to speak twice
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我很荣幸地两次
04:31
to the president's climate task force.
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在总统的气候专案组前演讲。
04:33
But energy policies continued to focus
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但是能源政策的重点依旧是
04:36
on finding more fossil fuels.
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找到更多的化石燃料。
04:39
By then we had two grandchildren,
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那时我已经有一个孙子和一个孙女，
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Sophie and Connor.
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Sophie和Connor。
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I decided
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我决定
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that I did not want them in the future
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我不希望他们在将来说，
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to say, "Opa understood what was happening,
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“爷爷知道发生了些什么，
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but he didn't make it clear."
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但他没有告诉大家。“
04:52
So I decided to give a public talk
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于是我决定做场公众演讲，
04:55
criticizing the lack of an appropriate energy policy.
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批评政府没有一项合适的能源政策。
04:58
I gave the talk at the University of Iowa in 2004
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2004年我在爱荷华大学做了演讲，
05:01
and at the 2005 meeting
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2005年我在
05:04
of the American Geophysical Union.
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美国地球物理联盟的会议演讲。
05:07
This led to calls
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因为这些演讲，
05:09
from the White House to NASA headquarters
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从白宫到国家航空航天局总局都纷纷给我打电话，
05:11
and I was told that I could not give any talks or speak with the media
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告诉我如果我没有得到
05:14
without prior explicit approval
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航空航天局总局的明确批准，
05:17
by NASA headquarters.
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我就不能做演讲或者联系媒体。
05:20
After I informed the New York Times
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在我告诉《纽约时报》
05:22
about these restrictions,
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我言论受到限制后，
05:24
NASA was forced to end the censorship.
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国家航空航天局取消了对我的审查。
05:27
But there were consequences.
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但这是造成了其他后果。
05:29
I had been using the first line
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之后我一直在用
05:31
of the NASA mission statement,
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国家航空航天局的任务声明的第一句话，
05:33
"To understand and protect the home planet,"
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“为了了解和保护我们的地球家园”，
05:36
to justify my talks.
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来给我的演讲作个幌子。
05:38
Soon the first line of the mission statement
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很快航空航天局的任务声明的第一句话
05:40
was deleted, never to appear again.
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就被删除了，以后也不会再出现了。
05:44
Over the next few years
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在之后的几年里，
05:46
I was drawn more and more
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我对宣传
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into trying to communicate the urgency
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改变能源政策的紧急性
05:51
of a change in energy policies,
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越来越认真，
05:54
while still researching the physics of climate change.
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同时我还在研究气候变化物理。
05:57
Let me describe the most important conclusion from the physics --
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我来讲一下物理研究得出的最重要的结论。
06:00
first, from Earth's energy balance
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首先，从地球能量平衡角度；
06:03
and, second, from Earth's climate history.
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其次，从地球气候历史角度。
06:07
Adding CO2 to the air
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向空气中排入二氧化碳
06:09
is like throwing another blanket on the bed.
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就像是在床上又加了床毯子。
06:12
It reduces Earth's heat radiation to space,
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它减少从地球散向宇宙的热辐射，
06:15
so there's a temporary energy imbalance.
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造成暂时性的能量不平衡。
06:18
More energy is coming in
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进入地球的能量
06:20
than going out,
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比离开地球的能量多，
06:22
until Earth warms up enough
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直到地球继续升温
06:24
to again radiate to space
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再次向太空辐射出
06:26
as much energy as it absorbs from the Sun.
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它从太阳吸收到的同样多的能量。
06:28
So the key quantity
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这其中的关键量
06:30
is Earth's energy imbalance.
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是地球的能量不平衡。
06:33
Is there more energy coming in
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进入地球的能量
06:35
than going out?
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是否比离开地球的多？
06:37
If so, more warming is in the pipeline.
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如果是的，更严重的变暖正在萌生。
06:40
It will occur without adding any more greenhouse gasses.
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地球会继续升温，虽然温室气体没有增多。
06:44
Now finally,
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现在，
06:46
we can measure Earth's energy imbalance precisely
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通过测量地球热储层中的热量，
06:50
by measuring the heat content
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我们能精确地
06:52
in Earth's heat reservoirs.
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测量出地球的能源不平衡。
06:55
The biggest reservoir, the ocean, was the least well measured,
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最大的热储层，海洋，也曾是被测量得最不精确的，
06:58
until more than 3,000 Argo floats
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直到3000多个Argo浮标
07:01
were distributed around the world's ocean.
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被分散到海洋各地。
07:04
These floats reveal
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这些浮标显示
07:06
that the upper half of the ocean
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海洋的上半层
07:08
is gaining heat at a substantial rate.
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正在飞快地吸收热量。
07:11
The deep ocean is also gaining heat at a smaller rate,
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深洋也在吸收热量，虽然速度要慢一些，
07:14
and energy is going
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吸收的热量不断进到
07:16
into the net melting of ice all around the planet.
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地球上的融冰中。
07:19
And the land, to depths of tens of meters,
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陆地到十米深的地方，
07:22
is also warming.
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也在升温。
07:24
The total energy imbalance now
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现在的总能量不平衡
07:27
is about six-tenths of a watt per square meter.
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大概有每平方米0.6瓦。
07:31
That may not sound like much,
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这听起来好像不是很多，
07:33
but when added up over the whole world, it's enormous.
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但把全世界的都加起来，这个数字就大得惊人。
07:36
It's about 20 times greater
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它大概比所有人类用能量的
07:39
than the rate of energy use by all of humanity.
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多出20倍。
07:42
It's equivalent to exploding
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它等同于一年365天
07:44
400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day
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每天炸掉40万个
07:50
365 days per year.
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广岛原子弹。
07:53
That's how much extra energy
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地球每天都在吸收
07:55
Earth is gaining each day.
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这样多的额外能量。
07:57
This imbalance,
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这个不平衡意味着
07:59
if we want to stabilize climate,
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如果我们想要稳定气候的话，
08:02
means that we must reduce CO2
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我们就必须降低二氧化碳浓度，
08:04
from 391 ppm, parts per million,
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从391ppm，即百万分之三百九十一，
08:07
back to 350 ppm.
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降回到350ppm。
08:10
That is the change needed to restore energy balance
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如果我们想重建能量平衡，阻止地球变得更暖，
08:13
and prevent further warming.
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我们就必须做这样的改变。
08:15
Climate change deniers argue
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否认气候变化的人说，
08:18
that the Sun is the main cause of climate change.
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太阳是地球气候变化的主要原因。
08:21
But the measured energy imbalance occurred
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但是我们测量到的能量不平衡发生在
08:24
during the deepest solar minimum in the record,
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自人类记录以来太阳活动最弱时期，
08:28
when the Sun's energy reaching Earth was least.
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这期间太阳到达地球的能量是最少的。
08:32
Yet, there was more energy coming in than going out.
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然而，地球收到的能量还是比散发的多。
08:35
This shows that the effect of the Sun's variations on climate
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这表明太阳辐射对气候的影响
08:38
is overwhelmed by the increasing greenhouse gasses,
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已经被增加的温室气体减弱，
08:41
mainly from burning fossil fuels.
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这些气体主要来自化石燃料的燃烧。
08:44
Now consider Earth's climate history.
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现在想想地球的气候史。
08:47
These curves for global temperature,
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这些全球温度的曲线，
08:49
atmospheric CO2 and sea level
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大气层二氧化碳和海平面的曲线，
08:52
were derived from ocean cores and Antarctic ice cores,
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是通过测量海洋芯、南极冰芯、
08:55
from ocean sediments and snowflakes
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和海洋沉淀物和雪花得到的。
08:57
that piled up year after year
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80多万年来，
09:00
over 800,000 years
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这些沉淀物和雪花不断积累，
09:02
forming a two-mile thick ice sheet.
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最后形成了一个2英里厚的冰盖。
09:04
As you see, there's a high correlation
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大家都可以看到，温度、二氧化碳和海平面之间
09:07
between temperature, CO2 and sea level.
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有着极大的关联。
09:10
Careful examination shows
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仔细的研究显示
09:12
that the temperature changes
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气温变化
09:14
slightly lead the CO2 changes
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会引发几世纪后的
09:16
by a few centuries.
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二氧化碳变化。
09:19
Climate change deniers like to use this fact
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否定气候变化的人喜欢用这个事实
09:22
to confuse and trick the public
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来迷惑和愚弄大众。
09:25
by saying, "Look, the temperature causes CO2 to change,
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他们会说：“看，是温度引起了二氧化碳变化，
09:28
not vice versa."
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而不是二氧化碳引起温度变化。”
09:30
But that lag
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但是这正是
09:32
is exactly what is expected.
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我们所预期的。
09:35
Small changes in Earth's orbit
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经过数十万年，地球的轨道
09:38
that occur over tens to hundreds of thousands of years
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会产生小小的变化，
09:41
alter the distribution
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这些变化会改变
09:43
of sunlight on Earth.
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地球各部分得到的阳光。
09:45
When there is more sunlight
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如果高纬度地区
09:47
at high latitudes in summer, ice sheets melt.
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在夏天得到更多的日照，冰盖就会融化。
09:50
Shrinking ice sheets
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减少后的冰盖会
09:52
make the planet darker,
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让地球变得更暗，
09:54
so it absorbs more sunlight
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地球因此会吸收更多的阳光，
09:56
and becomes warmer.
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变得更加温暖。
09:58
A warmer ocean releases CO2,
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升温的海洋会释放二氧化碳，
10:00
just as a warm Coca-Cola does.
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就像升温的可口可乐一样。
10:03
And more CO2 causes more warming.
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更多的二氧化碳会引发更严重的变暖。
10:06
So CO2, methane, and ice sheets
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因此，二氧化碳、甲烷和冰盖
10:09
were feedbacks
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都是放大了
10:11
that amplified global temperature change
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全球温度变化的反馈，
10:14
causing these ancient climate oscillations to be huge,
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尽管气候变化最初是因小小的变化而起，
10:17
even though the climate change was initiated
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这些古老的气候变化指数
10:20
by a very weak forcing.
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也会变得非常大。
10:22
The important point
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重要的问题是
10:24
is that these same amplifying feedbacks
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这些同样的放大的反馈
10:26
will occur today.
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会出现在现在。
10:28
The physics does not change.
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物理原理是不会变的。
10:30
As Earth warms,
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随着地球变暖，
10:32
now because of extra CO2 we put in the atmosphere,
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现在是因为我们排入大气层的多余的二氧化碳，
10:35
ice will melt,
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冰层将会融化，
10:37
and CO2 and methane will be released
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升温的海洋和融化的冻土
10:39
by warming ocean and melting permafrost.
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会释放出二氧化碳和甲烷。
10:42
While we can't say exactly how fast
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虽然我们不知道这些放大的反馈
10:45
these amplifying feedbacks will occur,
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会多快发生，
10:48
it is certain they will occur,
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但毫无疑问它们会发生，
10:51
unless we stop the warming.
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除非我们停止让地球变暖。
10:53
There is evidence
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有证据显示
10:55
that feedbacks are already beginning.
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这些反馈已经开始了。
10:58
Precise measurements
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重力卫星GRACE的
11:00
by GRACE, the gravity satellite,
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精准测量显示，
11:02
reveal that both Greenland and Antarctica
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格陵兰岛和南极都在
11:05
are now losing mass,
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变小，
11:07
several hundred cubic kilometers per year.
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它们每年都会缩小几百立方千米。
11:10
And the rate has accelerated
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自从九年前
11:12
since the measurements began
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测量开始以来，
11:14
nine years ago.
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它们的缩小率都在加快。
11:16
Methane is also beginning
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甲烷也开始
11:18
to escape from the permafrost.
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从冻土中逃出。
11:21
What sea level rise
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海平面将会
11:23
can we look forward to?
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上升至什么程度？
11:25
The last time CO2 was 390 ppm,
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上一次二氧化碳含量为390ppm时，
11:28
today's value,
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这个含量即是现在的含量，
11:30
sea level was higher
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海平面高出了
11:32
by at least 15 meters, 50 feet.
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至少15米，50英尺。
11:35
Where you are sitting now
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各位现在坐的地方
11:37
would be under water.
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会在水下。
11:39
Most estimates are that, this century,
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大多数预算表明，在本世纪，
11:42
we will get at least one meter.
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海平面会上升至少一米。
11:44
I think it will be more
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我认为，如果我们继续燃烧化石燃料，
11:46
if we keep burning fossil fuels,
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海平面会上升更多，
11:48
perhaps even five meters, which is 18 feet,
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在本世纪或此后不久，
11:51
this century or shortly thereafter.
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海平面也许会上升5米，即18英尺。
11:54
The important point
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问题的关键是，
11:56
is that we will have started a process
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我们将开始一个
11:59
that is out of humanity's control.
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超出人类控制的进程。
12:02
Ice sheets would continue to disintegrate for centuries.
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冰盖将连着几个世纪持续消融。
12:05
There would be no stable shoreline.
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海岸线将不再稳定。
12:07
The economic consequences are almost unthinkable.
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随之而来的经济损失是不可想象的。
12:10
Hundreds of New Orleans-like devastations
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全世界都会出现数百起像新奥尔良一样的
12:14
around the world.
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毁灭。
12:16
What may be more reprehensible,
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如果我们继续否认气候变化，
12:18
if climate denial continues,
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更应受谴责的后果恐怕是
12:20
is extermination of species.
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物种的灭绝。
12:22
The monarch butterfly
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据气候变化政府委员会预计，
12:24
could be one of the 20 to 50 percent of all species
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目前的物种中有百分之二十到五十都会在
12:29
that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates
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本世纪末灭绝，
12:32
will be ticketed for extinction
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帝王蝶就可能是
12:34
by the end of the century
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其中之一，
12:36
if we stay on business-as-usual fossil fuel use.
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如果我们仍像现在这样使用化石燃料。
12:40
Global warming is already affecting people.
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全球变暖已经在影响我们了。
12:43
The Texas, Oklahoma, Mexico
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去年发生在德州、俄克拉荷马州和墨西哥的
12:45
heatwave and drought last year,
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热潮与干旱，
12:48
Moscow the year before
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去年的莫斯科热潮
12:50
and Europe in 2003,
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和2003年的欧洲热潮
12:52
were all exceptional events,
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都是不正常的现象，
12:55
more than three standard deviations outside the norm.
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这些事情的概率超过了正常值3个标准差。
12:59
Fifty years ago,
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50年前，
13:01
such anomalies
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这些异常现象仅
13:03
covered only two- to three-tenths
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覆盖了百分之一的陆地面积的
13:05
of one percent of the land area.
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十分之二到十分之三。
13:07
In recent years,
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在近几年，
13:09
because of global warming,
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因为全球变暖，
13:11
they now cover about 10 percent --
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异常现象覆盖了约百分之十——
13:13
an increase by a factor of 25 to 50.
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比以前增加了25到50倍。
13:16
So we can say with a high degree of confidence
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我们可以很肯定地说，
13:19
that the severe Texas and Moscow heatwaves
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发生在德州和莫斯科的严重热潮
13:21
were not natural;
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是反自然的；
13:23
they were caused by global warming.
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它们是由全球变暖造成的。
13:26
An important impact,
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如果全球变暖持续，
13:28
if global warming continues,
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我们以及全世界的食物
13:30
will be on the breadbasket of our nation and the world,
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都将受到重要影响。
13:33
the Midwest and Great Plains,
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中西部和大平原地区
13:35
which are expected to become prone to extreme droughts,
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将变得极易干旱，
13:38
worse than the Dust Bowl,
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比20世纪30年代的大沙尘暴还要严重。
13:40
within just a few decades,
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如果我们继续对全球变暖不闻不问，
13:42
if we let global warming continue.
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这将在几十年内就变成事实。
13:46
How did I get dragged deeper and deeper
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我是如何变得越来越
13:49
into an attempt to communicate,
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渴望与公众交流，
13:51
giving talks in 10 countries, getting arrested,
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在10个国家演讲，被逮捕，
13:54
burning up the vacation time
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耗尽我积攒了30多年的
13:56
that I had accumulated over 30 years?
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度假时间？
14:00
More grandchildren helped me along.
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我的孙子孙女中也有越来越多的人来帮我。
14:03
Jake is a super-positive,
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Jake是一个非常积极向上、
14:05
enthusiastic boy.
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热情活跃的男孩儿。
14:08
Here at age two and a half years,
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他只有2岁半的时候，
14:10
he thinks he can protect
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就觉得他能保护
14:12
his two and a half-day-old little sister.
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他两岁半天大的妹妹。
14:15
It would be immoral
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把一个持续迅速失控的
14:17
to leave these young people
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气候系统
14:19
with a climate system
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留给这些年轻人
14:21
spiraling out of control.
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是不道德的。
14:23
Now the tragedy about climate change
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而气候变化的悲剧是，
14:26
is that we can solve it
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我们其实只用一个简单、诚实的办法
14:28
with a simple, honest approach
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就可以解决它。
14:30
of a gradually rising carbon fee
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我们可以逐步提高从化石燃料公司
14:33
collected from fossil fuel companies
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收取的碳化气体排放费，
14:35
and distributed 100 percent electronically
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通过电汇、依据个人收入水平
14:39
every month to all legal residents
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把这次钱百分之百地分配到
14:41
on a per capita basis,
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合法居民头上，
14:43
with the government not keeping one dime.
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政府不拿其中一分钱。
14:47
Most people would get more in the monthly dividend
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大多数人拿到的月津贴将比
14:50
than they'd pay in increased prices.
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他们为上涨的物价多付的钱要多。
14:52
This fee and dividend
348
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这笔费用和津贴
14:54
would stimulate the economy
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将促进经济
14:56
and innovations,
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和创新，
14:58
creating millions of jobs.
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创造数以百万的工作机会。
15:00
It is the principal requirement
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这是让我们
15:02
for moving us rapidly
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加速进入一个清洁未来的
15:05
to a clean energy future.
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主要条件。
15:07
Several top economists
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几位顶级经济学家
15:09
are coauthors on this proposition.
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合作提出这个主张。
15:12
Jim DiPeso of Republicans for Environmental Protection
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来自环保共和党人的Jim DiPeso
15:15
describes it thusly:
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因此这样形容道：
15:17
"Transparent. Market-based.
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”公开透明。以市场需求为基础。
15:19
Does not enlarge government.
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不扩大政府。
15:21
Leaves energy decisions to individual choices.
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让公民个人为能源做决定。
15:24
Sounds like a conservative climate plan."
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听起来像是一个保守的气候计划。“
15:28
But instead of placing a rising fee on carbon emissions
363
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但是政府却没有提高碳化气体排放费，
15:32
to make fossil fuels pay
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让化石燃料公司为它们带给社会的
15:35
their true cost to society,
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真正危害买单，
15:37
our governments are forcing the public
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却在迫使世界范围的
15:40
to subsidize fossil fuels
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公民大众每年掏出
15:43
by 400 to 500 billion dollars
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3000
400到500亿美元
15:46
per year worldwide,
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补贴化石燃料公司。
15:48
thus encouraging extraction of every fossil fuel --
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这就鼓励化石燃料公司去挖掘每一滴化石燃料——
15:51
mountaintop removal,
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切掉山顶，
15:53
longwall mining, fracking,
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长壁开采，水力压裂，
15:55
tar sands, tar shale,
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焦油沙，焦油页岩，
15:57
deep ocean Arctic drilling.
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深海北极钻探。
16:00
This path, if continued,
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如果我们继续走这条道路，
16:02
guarantees that we will pass tipping points
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我们一定会超过引爆点，
16:05
leading to ice sheet disintegration
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引发冰盖消融，
16:07
that will accelerate out of control of future generations.
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等到了我们的后代时，消融会超出人类控制地加速。
16:11
A large fraction of species
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许多物种都将
16:13
will be committed to extinction.
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走向灭亡。
16:15
And increasing intensity of droughts and floods
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加剧的旱灾和洪涝
16:17
will severely impact breadbaskets of the world,
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将严重影响世界的食物产量，
16:20
causing massive famines
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带来严重的饥荒
16:22
and economic decline.
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和经济衰退。
16:26
Imagine a giant asteroid
385
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想象一个巨大的小行星
16:29
on a direct collision course with Earth.
386
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4000
在和地球正面相撞的轨道上。
16:33
That is the equivalent
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2000
这和我们现在
16:35
of what we face now.
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所面对的情况是相同的。
16:37
Yet, we dither,
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然而，我们犹豫不决，
16:39
taking no action
390
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2000
却不改变
16:41
to divert the asteroid,
391
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小行星的轨道，
16:43
even though the longer we wait,
392
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即使我们知道我们等得越久，
16:45
the more difficult and expensive it becomes.
393
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改变就变得更难更贵。
16:49
If we had started in 2005,
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如果我们从2005年就开始改变的话，
16:51
it would have required emission reductions of three percent per year
395
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我们需要每年减少百分之三的气体排放，
16:54
to restore planetary energy balance
396
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3000
才能在本世纪重造能源平衡，
16:57
and stabilize climate this century.
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稳定气候。
17:00
If we start next year,
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如果我们从明年开始，
17:02
it is six percent per year.
399
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2000
我们需要每年减少百分之六。
17:04
If we wait 10 years, it is 15 percent per year --
400
1009000
3000
如果我们等上十年，就得百分之十五——
17:07
extremely difficult and expensive,
401
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极其困难与昂贵，
17:09
perhaps impossible.
402
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3000
也许甚至会是不可能的。
17:12
But we aren't even starting.
403
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2000
然而我们到现在都没有开始。
17:14
So now you know what I know
404
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现在你们知道了到底是什么
17:17
that is moving me to sound this alarm.
405
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驱使我发出警告。
17:20
Clearly, I haven't gotten this message across.
406
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显然，这个消息还没有被足够广泛地传播。
17:23
The science is clear.
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科学证据再清晰不过了。
17:26
I need your help
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我需要你们的帮助，
17:28
to communicate the gravity and the urgency
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来更有效地传播
17:30
of this situation
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情况的重要性
17:32
and its solutions
411
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和紧急性，
17:34
more effectively.
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以及解决办法。
17:36
We owe it to our children and grandchildren.
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我们要对我们的后代负责。
17:38
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
17:40
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
James Hansen - ClimatologistJames Hansen has made key insights into our global climate -- and inspired a generation of activists and scientists.
Why you should listen
James Hansen is Adjunct Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University’s Earth Institute. He was trained in physics and astronomy in the space science program of James Van Allen at the University of Iowa. His early research on the clouds of Venus helped identify their composition as sulfuric acid. Since the late 1970s, he has focused his research on Earth's climate, especially human-made climate change. From 1981 to 2013, he headed the NASA Godard Institute for Space Studies. He is also a member of the National Academy of Sciences.
Hansen is known for his testimony on climate change to congressional committees in the 1980s that helped raise broad awareness of the global warming issue. Hansen is recognized for speaking truth to power, for identifying ineffectual policies as greenwash, and for outlining the actions that the public must take to protect the future of young people and the other species on the planet.
James Hansen | Speaker | TED.com