ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Stewart Brand - Environmentalist, futurist
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ...

Why you should listen

With biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, the revival of extinct species is becoming possible. Stewart Brand plans to not only bring species back but restore them to the wild.

Brand is already a legend in the tech industry for things he’s created: the Whole Earth Catalog, The WELL, the Global Business Network, the Long Now Foundation, and the notion that “information wants to be free.” Now Brand, a lifelong environmentalist, wants to re-create -- or “de-extinct” -- a few animals that’ve disappeared from the planet.

Granted, resurrecting the woolly mammoth using ancient DNA may sound like mad science. But Brand’s Revive and Restore project has an entirely rational goal: to learn what causes extinctions so we can protect currently endangered species, preserve genetic and biological diversity, repair depleted ecosystems, and essentially “undo harm that humans have caused in the past.”

More profile about the speaker
Stewart Brand | Speaker | TED.com
TED@State

Stewart Brand: 4 environmental 'heresies'

斯图尔特·伯兰特:关于环保的四个“异端观点”

Filmed:
785,573 views

斯图尔特·伯兰特曾引领了上世纪六七十年代的环保运动,现在,他开始重新考虑关于城市,核能,转基因改造和人工气候改造(地球工程)的问题。这是他在美国国务院的一个演讲,讲述的是他的新书《地球的法则》的主要观点。
- Environmentalist, futurist
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ... Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
Because of what I'm about to say,
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因为我等会谈论的议题的缘故
00:18
I really should establish建立 my green绿色 credentials证书.
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我想我必须首先讲述一下我的绿色情结
00:21
When I was a small boy男孩, I took my pledge保证
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当我还是一个小男孩,我承诺
00:23
as an American美国, to save保存 and faithfully忠实 defend保卫 from waste浪费
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作为一名美国人,要保护和忠实地捍卫
00:26
the natural自然 resources资源 of my country国家,
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我国的自然资源。
00:28
its air空气, soil and minerals矿物质, its forests森林, waters水域 and wildlife野生动物.
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这包括空气,土壤,矿物资源,森林,水资源和野生动物。
00:31
And I've stuck卡住 to that.
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我还坚持这一承诺。
00:33
Stanford斯坦福, I majored主修 in ecology生态 and evolution演化.
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在斯坦福大学,我主修生态学和生物进化学。
00:37
1968, I put out the Whole整个 Earth地球 Catalog目录. Was "mister先生 natural自然" for a while.
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1968年我创办了《地球目录》 一段时间我成了 “环保先生”。
00:41
And then worked工作 for the Jerry杰瑞 Brown棕色 administration行政.
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然后就职于杰里布朗政府。
00:44
The Brown棕色 administration行政, and a bunch of my friends朋友,
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布朗政府期间,我和一些朋友们
00:47
basically基本上 leveled夷为平地 the energy能源 efficiency效率 of California加州,
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主要使加州能源效率平衡。
00:50
so it's the same相同 now, 30 years年份 later后来,
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因此到现在,30年后,
00:53
even though虽然 our economy经济 has gone走了 up 80 percent百分, per capita人头.
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尽管我们的人均经济提高了百分之八十。
00:57
And we are putting out less greenhouse温室 gasses气体 than any other state.
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但我们加州比任何其他州排放越来越少的温室气体。
01:00
California加州 is basically基本上 the equivalent当量 of Europe欧洲, in this.
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在减少温室气体排放这点,加州基本上相当于欧洲。
01:03
This year, Whole整个 Earth地球 Catalog目录 has a supplement补充 that I'll preview预习 today今天,
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今年,地球目录有一个补充,今天,我将
01:08
called Whole整个 Earth地球 Discipline学科.
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其称为“地球规则”。
01:11
The dominant优势 demographic人口 event事件 of our time
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现在主要人口事件
01:13
is this screamingly令人讶异 rapid快速 urbanization城市化
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是我们已经经历过的这种令人讶异的快速城市化
01:16
that we have going on.
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进程。
01:18
By mid-century本世纪中叶 we'll be about 80 percent百分 urban城市的,
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到本世纪中叶将有大约80%要城市化。
01:22
and that's mostly大多 in the developing发展 world世界,
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而这主要是在发展中世界
01:25
where that's happening事件.
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要发生的事情。
01:27
It's interesting有趣, because history历史 is driven驱动 to a large degree
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有趣的是,在很大程度上
01:30
by the size尺寸 of cities城市.
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城市的大小往往也决定了历史的发展
01:32
The developing发展 world世界 now has all of the biggest最大 cities城市,
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现在最大的城市都在发展中国家
01:35
and they are developing发展 three times faster更快 than the developed发达 countries国家,
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他们的发展比发达国家的发展快3倍。
01:38
and nine times bigger.
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规模是我们的9倍
01:40
It's qualitatively定性 different不同.
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这是有质的不同。
01:43
They are the drivers司机 of history历史, as we see by looking at history历史.
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当我们回顾历史时,它们是历史转变的驱动力。
01:45
1,000 years年份 ago this is what the world世界 looked看着 like.
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一千年前的世界是什么样子。
01:49
Well we now have a distribution分配 of urban城市的 power功率
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那么,我们现在有一个城市发展分布
01:52
similar类似 to what we had 1,000 years年份 ago.
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类似于我们在1000年前城市分布。
01:55
In other words, the rise上升 of the West西,
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换言之,西方的崛起,
01:57
dramatic戏剧性 as it was, is over.
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尽管有如一出戏剧,但它已经结束了。
02:01
The aggregate骨料 numbers数字 are absolutely绝对 overwhelming压倒:
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总人口数有压倒性的优势。
02:04
1.3 million百万 people a week coming未来 to town,
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每星期130万人来到城镇,
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decade after decade.
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年复一年。
02:09
What's really going on?
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到底是怎么回事?
02:11
Well, what's going on is the villages村庄 of the world世界 are emptying清空 out.
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如今全球各地的村庄正变得荒芜起来
02:14
Subsistence生存 farming农业 is drying烘干 up basically基本上.
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农田没人管,因为人都迁移到了城市
02:17
People are following以下 opportunity机会 into town.
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城市就是机会
02:19
And this is why.
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就这么简单
02:21
I used to have a very romantic浪漫 idea理念 about villages村庄,
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我曾经有一个关于村庄很浪漫的看法,
02:23
and it's because I never lived生活 in one.
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这是因为我从来没有在村庄居住过。
02:26
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:27
Because in town --
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因为在城市 -
02:29
this is the bustling繁华 squatter棚户区 city
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这是熙熙攘攘的,寮屋搭建的基贝拉城
02:31
of Kibera基贝拉, near Nairobi内罗毕 --
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它靠近内罗毕 -
02:35
they see action行动. They see opportunity机会.
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在城市,有活动,有机会。
02:37
They see a cash现金 economy经济 that they were not able能够 to participate参加 in
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有现金经济交易,使得人们不愿回归到
02:40
back in the subsistence生活 farm农场.
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仅能维持生计的农业耕作上
02:43
As you go around these places地方 there's plenty丰富 of aesthetics美学.
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去到那些地方,你会发现很多美丽的景象
02:45
There is plenty丰富 going on.
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还有很多事情发生。
02:47
They are poor较差的, but they are intensely激烈 urban城市的. And they are intensely激烈 creative创作的.
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他们是穷人,但他们高度城市化,而且他们有很强的创造性。
02:51
The aggregate骨料 numbers数字 now
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现在总人口数
02:53
are that basically基本上 squatters棚户区,
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基本是住寮屋的人,
02:56
all one billion十亿 of them, are building建造 the urban城市的 world世界,
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他们中10亿人口正在建设他们的城市世界,
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which哪一个 means手段 they're building建造 the world世界 --
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也意味着他们正在建设新世界。
03:02
personally亲自, one by one, family家庭 by family家庭,
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那是一种人与人的连结,一个接一个,一个家庭接一个家庭,
03:04
clan氏族 by clan氏族, neighborhood邻里 by neighborhood邻里.
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家族联系着家族,左邻右舍的。
03:07
They start开始 flimsy单薄 and they get substantial大量的 as time goes by.
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他们开始举步维艰,随着时间的推移,他们取得实质性进展。
03:11
They even build建立 their own拥有 infrastructure基础设施.
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他们甚至建立起他们自己的基础设施。
03:13
Well, steal their own拥有 infrastructure基础设施, at first.
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当然开始的时候是偷盗他们的基础设施,
03:16
Cable电缆 TV电视, water, the whole整个 gamut色域, all gets得到 stolen被盗.
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有线电视,水,整个范围,所有都被侵占,
03:19
And then gradually逐渐 gentrifiesgentrifies.
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然后逐渐修复改善。
03:23
It is not the case案件 that slums贫民窟 undermine破坏 prosperity繁荣,
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贫民窟破坏繁荣,情况实际不是这样。
03:26
not the working加工 slums贫民窟; they help create创建 prosperity繁荣.
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贫民窟的工作反而帮助创造繁荣。
03:30
So in a town like Mumbai孟买, which哪一个 is half slums贫民窟,
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孟买,这个城市有一半的城市贫民区,
03:33
it's 1/6th of the GDPGDP of India印度.
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但那里却创造了印度国内生产总值的六分之一。
03:36
Social社会 capital首都 in the slums贫民窟 is at its most urban城市的 and dense稠密.
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贫民窟的社会资本是高度城市化和最密集的。
03:41
These people are valuable有价值 as a group.
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贫民窟里的人作为一个整体是最有价值的
03:44
And that's how they work.
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这也正是他们的组织形式
03:46
There is a lot of people who think about all these poor较差的 people,
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谈及贫民窟,很多人会想到
03:49
"Oh there's terrible可怕 things. We've我们已经 got to fix固定 their housing住房."
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“哦,那里太糟糕了。我们必须解决他们的住房问题。”
03:51
It used to be, "Oh we've我们已经 got to get them phone电话 service服务."
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还有“哦,我们得让他们有电话服务。”
03:53
Now they're showing展示 us how they do their phone电话 service服务.
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现在,他们向我们展示他们是如何做电话服务的。
03:56
Famine饥荒 mostly大多 is a rural乡村 event事件 now.
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现在饥荒大多是农村的事情。
03:58
There are things they care关心 about.
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贫民窟的居民关心的是这些事情。
04:00
And this is where we can help.
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而这正是我们可以帮助的方面。
04:03
And the nations国家 they're in can help.
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政府也可以提供帮助。
04:05
And they are helping帮助 each other solve解决 these issues问题.
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这样互相帮助,就可以解决类似问题。
04:08
And you go to a nice不错 dense稠密 place地点 like this slum贫民窟 in Mumbai孟买.
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你去一个像孟买这样的密集贫民区。
04:12
You look at that lane车道 on the right.
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你看关于右边的道路。
04:14
And you can ask, "Okay what's going on there?"
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你会问:“那会发生什么?”
04:16
The answer回答 is, "Everything."
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答案是,“一切都在发生。”
04:19
This is better than a mall购物中心. It's much denser更密集.
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这比一个商场好得多。它的密度大的多。
04:22
It's much more interactive互动.
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它更互动。
04:24
And the scale规模 is terrific了不起.
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规模惊人。
04:26
The main主要 event事件 is, these are not people crushed by poverty贫穷.
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关键是,人们不是被贫困折磨,
04:30
These are people busy getting得到 out of poverty贫穷
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而是人们忙于拼命要摆脱贫困
04:32
just as fast快速 as they can.
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尽他们所能,越快越好。
04:34
They're helping帮助 each other do it.
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他们互相帮助做到这一点。
04:36
They're doing it through通过 an outlaw取缔 thing,
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他们通过非法去做的事情,
04:38
the informal非正式的 economy经济.
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称为非正规经济。
04:40
The informal非正式的 economy经济, it's sort分类 of like dark黑暗 energy能源 in astrophysics天体物理学:
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非正规经济,它好比在天体物理学里的暗能量。
04:44
it's not supposed应该 to be there, but it's huge巨大.
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这本不应该有的,但它是巨大的。
04:46
We don't understand理解 how it works作品 yet然而, but we have to.
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我们还不明白它是如何运作的。但我们必须理解。
04:49
Furthermore此外, people in the informal非正式的 economy经济,
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此外,非正规经济,
04:51
the gray灰色 economy经济 --
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或称灰色经济
04:53
as time goes by,
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里头的人
04:55
crime犯罪 is happening事件 around them. And they can join加入 the criminal刑事 world世界,
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久而久之,也有可能走向犯罪。要么加入黑社会
04:59
or they can join加入 the legitimate合法 world世界.
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要么进入正常的法治社会
05:03
We should be able能够 to make that choice选择
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我们应该可以帮助他们
05:05
easier更轻松 for them to get toward the legitimate合法 world世界,
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使得她们更容易走进法治社会
05:07
because if we don't, they will go toward the criminal刑事 world世界.
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因为如果我们不这样做,他们将成为黑社会的一员
05:11
There's all kinds of activity活动.
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这会有多种活动影响。
05:14
In Dharavi达拉维 the slum贫民窟 performs施行 not only
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在达拉维贫民窟不仅有
05:16
a lot of services服务 for itself本身,
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很多为自己的服务,
05:18
but it performs施行 services服务 for the city at large.
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还为整个城市提供服务。
05:21
And one of the main主要 events事件 are these ad-hoc特别指定 schools学校.
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主要活动之一是这些特设学校。
05:24
Parents父母 pool their money to hire聘请 some local本地 teachers教师
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家长集合钱去聘请一些地方教师
05:28
to a private私人的, tiny, unofficial非官方 school学校.
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到一所小的,私人的,非官方学校教书。
05:30
Education教育 is more possible可能 in the cities城市, and that changes变化 the world世界.
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在城市,教育是更有可能的,并改变了世界。
05:35
So you see some interesting有趣, typical典型, urban城市的 things.
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所以你看到一些有趣的,典型的,城市的东西。
05:38
So one thing slammed抨击 up against反对 another另一个,
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贫民窟和富人区分别开来,
05:40
such这样 as in Sao圣保罗 Paulo圣保罗 here.
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例如在圣保罗这里。
05:42
That's what cities城市 do. That's how they create创建 value,
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这就是城市所创造的价值,
05:44
is by slamming猛击 things together一起.
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有机地融合起来。
05:46
In this case案件, supply供应 right next下一个 to demand需求.
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在这种情况下,供应需求紧密相连。
05:48
So the maids女佣 and the gardeners园丁 and the guards卫士
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就如,在这个城市左边,有着活生生的生活。
05:50
that live生活 in this lively活泼 part部分 of town on the left
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这里生活的女佣、园丁和警卫人员
05:53
walk步行 to work, in the boring无聊, rich丰富 neighborhood邻里.
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步行到一个枯燥,富有的邻居家工作。
05:58
Proximity接近 is amazing惊人.
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邻近性是惊人的。
06:01
We are learning学习 about how dense稠密 proximity接近 can be.
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我们正在研究这密集邻近性。
06:16
Connectivity连接 between之间 the city and the country国家
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城市和国家之间的邻近连接,
06:19
is what's going to keep the country国家 good,
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会使国家变好趋于完善。
06:22
because the city has interesting有趣 ways方法 of doing things.
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因为城市有很多有趣方法。
06:34
This is what makes品牌 cities城市 --
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这可以使城市--
06:36
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
06:40
this is what makes品牌 cities城市 so green绿色 in the developing发展 world世界.
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这可以使发展中世界的城市变得更加绿色环保。
06:43
Because people leave离开 the poverty贫穷 trap陷阱, an ecological生态 disaster灾害
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因为人们要摆脱贫困陷阱,一个赖以生存的农业生态灾难
06:46
of subsistence生活 farms农场, and head to town.
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而奔往城市。
06:49
And when they're gone走了 the natural自然 environment环境
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而当他们离开农村后,自然环境
06:51
starts启动 to come back very rapidly急速.
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开始很快恢复。
06:53
And those who remain in the village can shift转移 over to cash现金 crops作物
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而那些留在乡村的人则可以种植经济作物
06:56
to send发送 food餐饮 to the new growing生长 markets市场 in town.
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并且将粮食卖到城市里去
07:00
So if you want to save保存 a village, you do it with a good road,
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所以,如果你想保留一个村庄,你得有良好的道路,
07:03
or with a good cell细胞 phone电话 connection连接, and ideally理想 some grid electrical电动 power功率.
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或有好的手机连接信号。最好配有一些电网电力。
07:07
So the event事件 is: we're a city planet行星. That just happened发生.
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我们都在地球城市生活。这情况转变
07:10
More than half.
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已超过一半城市化。
07:12
The numbers数字 are considerable大量. A billion十亿 live生活 in the squatter棚户区 cities城市 now.
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这些数字是相当大的。 现在10亿人生活在城市的寮屋。
07:15
Another另一个 billion十亿 is expected预期.
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未来还将有10亿人要搬到城市
07:18
That's more than a sixth第六 of humanity人性 living活的 a certain某些 way.
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这超过六分之一的人们以他们的方式生活着。
07:21
And that will determine确定 a lot of how we function功能.
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这将影响很大。
07:25
Now, for us environmentalists环保主义者,
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现在,对于我们这些环保主义者来说,
07:27
maybe the greenest环保 thing about the cities城市 is they diffuse扩散 the population人口 bomb炸弹.
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也许城市最环保的一点就是城市使得人口炸弹延迟引爆
07:30
People get into town.
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人们进入城市。
07:33
The immediately立即 have fewer children孩子.
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马上就想到不去生那么多孩子。
07:35
They don't even have to get rich丰富 yet然而. Just the opportunity机会 of
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他们甚至还没有富起来。要在城市求得生存
07:38
coming未来 up in the world世界 means手段 they will have fewer, higher-quality更高质量 kids孩子,
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就意味着少生优生
07:42
and the birthrate出生率 goes down radically根本.
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出生率于是急剧下降
07:44
Very interesting有趣 side effect影响 here,
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还有其他有趣的副作用在发生
07:46
here's这里的 a slide滑动 from Phillip菲利普 Longman朗文.
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这是菲利普朗曼的一个幻灯片,
07:48
Shows展会 what is happening事件.
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显示正在发生的事情。
07:50
As we have more and more old people, like me,
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当我们有越来越多的老人和我一样,
07:52
and fewer and fewer babies婴儿.
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越来越少的孩子出生。
07:54
And they are regionally区域 separated分离.
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它们是区域分开的。
07:57
What you're getting得到 is a world世界 which哪一个 is
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你会看到
07:59
old folks乡亲, and old cities城市, going around doing things the old way,
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在北半球,都是些老人、老城市
08:04
in the north.
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在按照传统的方式来生活
08:06
And young年轻 people in brand new cities城市 they're inventing发明了,
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而在发展中世界的新兴城市,年轻人们在创新,
08:09
doing new things, in the south.
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做些新鲜事情。
08:11
Where do you think the action行动 is going to be?
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你认为这些转变将在哪发生?
08:14
Shift转移 of subject学科. Quickly很快 drop下降 by climate气候.
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我要转移话题了。简单谈谈气候。
08:17
The climate气候 news新闻, I'm sorry to say, is going to keep getting得到 worse更差
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我很抱歉地说,气候的消息比我们想象的恶化得厉害,
08:19
than we think, faster更快 than we think.
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比我们所认为的变化快。
08:22
Climate气候 is a profoundly深深 complex复杂, nonlinear非线性 system系统,
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气候是深刻复杂的,非线性系统,
08:24
full充分 of runaway逃跑 positive feedbacks反馈,
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尽是失控的正反馈,
08:27
hidden thresholds阈值 and irrevocable不可撤销 tipping小费 points.
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隐藏的阈值和不可逆转的临界点。
08:29
Here's这里的 just a few少数 samples样本.
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这有些例子。
08:32
We're going to keep being存在 surprised诧异. And almost几乎 all
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我们会很惊讶。几乎所有的
08:34
the surprises惊喜 are going to be bad ones那些.
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惊讶都是坏消息。
08:36
From your standpoint立场 this means手段
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从政府的立场来考虑,这意味着
08:39
a great increase增加 in climate气候 refugees难民
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在未来几十年
08:41
over the coming未来 decades几十年,
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气候移民将大幅增加
08:43
and what goes along沿 with that, which哪一个 is resource资源 wars战争
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随之而来的是资源的战争
08:46
and chaos混沌 wars战争,
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和因为缺水而引发的战争
08:48
as we're seeing眼看 in Darfur达尔富尔.
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就如我们在达尔富尔所看到的。
08:55
That's what drought干旱 does.
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这就是干旱造成的战争。
08:57
It brings带来 carrying携带 capacity容量 down,
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承载能力随之下降。
08:59
and there's not enough足够 carrying携带 capacity容量
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没有足够的承载能力
09:01
to support支持 the people. And then you're in trouble麻烦.
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支持该国人民。然后人们就有麻烦了。
09:04
Shift转移 to the power功率 situation情况.
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好,我们再谈谈能源问题。
09:07
Baseload基本负荷 electricity电力 is what it takes to run a city,
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基荷电力是使得一个城市
09:10
or a city planet行星.
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或一个城市星球运转。
09:12
So far there is only three sources来源 of baseload基本负荷 electricity电力:
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到目前为止,只有三种基荷电力资源,
09:16
coal煤炭, some gas加油站,
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煤炭来源,一些石油,
09:19
nuclear and hydro水电.
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核能和水力发电。
09:21
Of those, only nuclear and hydro水电 are green绿色.
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其中,仅核能和水力发电是绿色环保的。
09:25
Coal煤炭 is what is causing造成 the climate气候 problems问题.
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煤炭是造成气候问题的原因。
09:27
And everyone大家 will keep burning燃烧 it
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因为它是如此便宜,除非政府提高燃煤发电的价格
09:29
because it's so cheap低廉, until直到 governments政府 make it expensive昂贵.
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否则每个人都会继续使用煤炭燃烧生电。
09:32
Wind and solar太阳能 can't help, because so far we don't have a way to store商店 that energy能源.
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风能和太阳能帮助不大,因为到目前为止,我们没有办法存储这些能量。
09:37
So with hydro水电 maxed刷爆 out,
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于是水力发电不能成为主要考虑的途径
09:40
coal煤炭 and lose失去 the climate气候,
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用煤电就会破坏气候,
09:43
or nuclear, which哪一个 is the current当前 operating操作 low-carbon低碳 source资源,
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或者核能,这是当前可操作的低碳源,
09:46
and maybe save保存 the climate气候.
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或许可以拯救气候。
09:48
And if we can eventually终于 get good solar太阳能 in space空间,
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如果我们最终可以很好的应用太阳能,
09:51
that also could help.
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这也可以帮助。
09:53
Because remember记得, this is what drives驱动器 the prosperity繁荣 in the developing发展 world世界
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请记住,这可以推动发展中世界的乡村和城市
09:58
in the villages村庄 and in the cities城市.
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走向繁荣
10:01
So, between之间 coal煤炭 and nuclear,
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那么,就煤炭和核能之间,
10:03
compare比较 their waste浪费 products制品.
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比较它们的废弃物。
10:05
If all of the electricity电力 you used in your lifetime一生 was nuclear,
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如果你一直都使用核能发电,
10:09
the amount of waste浪费 that would be added添加 up
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废弃物的数量加起来
10:11
would fit适合 in a Coke可乐 can.
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将等同于一罐可乐。
10:14
Whereas a coal-burning燃煤 plant,
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而一个燃煤电厂,
10:16
a normal正常 one gigawatt吉瓦 coal煤炭 plant, burns烧伤 80 rail cars汽车 of coal煤炭 a day,
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一个普通的,1千兆瓦的燃煤发电厂,每天燃烧80节煤炭轨道车。
10:20
each car汽车 having 100 tons.
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每节车厢有100吨。
10:23
And it puts看跌期权 18 thousand tons
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它向空气中排放1.8万吨
10:25
of carbon dioxide二氧化碳 in the air空气.
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二氧化碳。
10:29
So and then when you compare比较 the lifetime一生 emissions排放
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因此,当你就这些不同能源形式一生的排放量
10:31
of these various各个 energy能源 forms形式,
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比较一下
10:33
nuclear is about even with solar太阳能 and wind,
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核电和太阳能和风能大致一样,
10:35
and ahead of solar太阳能 --
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核能还领先于太阳能。
10:37
oh, I'm sorry -- with hydro水电 and wind, and ahead of solar太阳能.
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噢,对不起。还有水电能和风能,领先于太阳能。
10:40
And does nuclear really compete竞争 with coal煤炭?
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核电能可以和煤电能竞争吗?
10:42
Just ask the coal煤炭 miners矿工 in Australia澳大利亚.
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仅问问澳大利亚的煤矿工人就知道了。
10:44
That's where you see some of the source资源,
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这就是你们所看到的资源信息,
10:46
not from my fellow同伴 environmentalists环保主义者,
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而不是从我的环保同事,
10:48
but from people who feel threatened受威胁 by nuclear power功率.
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而是从那些感受到核电威胁的矿工那得知。
10:51
Well the good news新闻 is that
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那么好消息是,
10:53
the developing发展 world世界, but frankly坦率地说, the whole整个 world世界,
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发展中世界,坦率地说,整个世界,
10:55
is busy building建造, and starting开始 to build建立, nuclear reactors反应堆.
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是忙于建设,并开始建造核反应堆。
10:59
This is good for the atmosphere大气层.
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这利于大气,
11:01
It's good for their prosperity繁荣.
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也利于繁荣。
11:03
I want to point out one interesting有趣 thing,
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我想指出一个有趣的事情,
11:05
which哪一个 is that environmentalists环保主义者 like the thing we call micropower.
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那就是环保人士喜欢称之为微型反应堆的东西。
11:08
It's supposed应该 to be, I don't know, local本地 solar太阳能 and wind and cogeneration热电联产,
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我不太确定,据说是当地太阳能和风能和热电联供发电
11:11
and good things like that.
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之类的东西。
11:13
But frankly坦率地说 micro-reactors微反应器 which哪一个 are just now coming未来 on,
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但坦率地说现在刚开始有的微型反应堆
11:15
might威力 serve服务 even better.
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可能被更好地应用。
11:17
The Russians俄罗斯, who started开始 this, are building建造 floating漂浮的 reactors反应堆,
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在俄国北部,那里的冰融化,有了新通道
11:19
for their new passage通道, where the ice is melting融化, north of Russia俄国.
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俄罗斯人开始在那建设浮动核反应堆
11:23
And they're selling销售 these floating漂浮的 reactors反应堆,
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他们向发展中国家卖这些
11:26
only 35 megawatts兆瓦, to developing发展 countries国家.
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只有35兆瓦浮动核反应堆
11:30
Here's这里的 the design设计 of an early one from Toshiba东芝.
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下面是东芝早期的设计。
11:32
It's interesting有趣, say, to take a 25-megawatt-megawatt,
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这个很有趣,比如,它采取了25兆瓦,
11:35
25 million百万 watts,
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2千5百万瓦特,
11:37
and you compare比较 it to the standard标准 big iron
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拿它和一般威斯汀豪斯或Ariva派的标准大铁块反应堆
11:39
of an ordinary普通 Westinghouse西屋 or Ariva艾丽华,
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比较一下
11:43
which哪一个 is 1.2, 1.6 billion十亿 watts.
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它们通常是12亿到16亿瓦特
11:46
These things are way smaller. They're much more adaptable适应性强.
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这些就小得多,并且非常容易安装
11:50
Here's这里的 an American美国 design设计 from Lawrence劳伦斯 Livermore利弗莫尔 Lab实验室.
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这是美国劳伦斯利弗莫尔实验室的设计。
11:53
Here's这里的 another另一个 American美国 design设计 that came来了 out
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这还有美国洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室开始研制另一款设计,
11:55
of Los洛杉矶 Alamos洛斯阿拉莫斯, and is now commercial广告.
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现在它已经商业化。
11:58
Almost几乎 all of these are not only small, they are proliferation-proof增殖防.
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几乎所有这些不仅仅是小,并且可以避免核扩散的发生
12:00
They're typically一般 buried隐藏 in the ground地面.
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他们通常被埋在地下。
12:03
And the innovation革新 is moving移动 very rapidly急速.
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创新发展非常迅速。
12:05
So I think microreactors微反应器 is going to be important重要 for the future未来.
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所以我认为在未来微反应堆变得重要。
12:08
In terms条款 of proliferation增殖,
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在核扩散方面,
12:10
nuclear energy能源 has doneDONE more
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核能发电事实上有助于核武器的消解
12:12
to dismantle拆除 nuclear weapons武器 than any other activity活动.
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其他办法都比不上这个
12:15
And that's why 10 percent百分 of the electricity电力 in this room房间,
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这就是在这个会议室有百分之十
12:19
20 percent百分 of electricity电力
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甚至百分之二十的电力
12:21
in this room房间 is probably大概 nuclear.
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可能是核电。
12:23
Half of that is coming未来 from dismantled拆除 warheads弹头 from Russia俄国,
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其中一半是来自俄罗斯拆除的核弹头。
12:27
soon不久 to be joined加盟 by our dismantled拆除 warheads弹头.
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不久也会有我们拆除的核弹头。
12:30
And so I would like to see the GNEPGNEP program程序,
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我想看到布什政府积极推进的
12:33
that was developed发达 in the Bush衬套 administration行政, go forward前锋 aggressively积极.
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全球核能源合作计划能够继续推进
12:36
And I was glad高兴 to see that president主席 Obama奥巴马
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我也很高兴看到奥巴马总统前几周
12:38
supported支持的 the nuclear fuel汽油 bank银行 strategy战略
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在布拉格讲到
12:41
when he spoke in Prague布拉格 the other week.
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他支持核燃料银行的战略
12:43
One more subject学科. Genetically基因 engineered工程 food餐饮 crops作物,
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再说另一个话题,就是转基因食品
12:46
in my view视图, as a biologist生物学家,
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作为一个生物学家,以我的观点,
12:48
have no reason原因 to be controversial争论的.
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转基因食品作物不会引起争议。
12:50
My fellow同伴 environmentalists环保主义者, on this subject学科,
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我的环保同行在这个问题上,
12:52
have been irrational不合理的, anti-scientific反科学, and very harmful有害.
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变得非理性,反科学的,那是十分有害的
12:56
Despite尽管 their best最好 efforts努力,
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尽管他们尽了最大努力,
12:58
genetically基因 engineered工程 crops作物 are the most
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转基因农作物是历史上
13:00
rapidly急速 successful成功 agricultural农业的 innovation革新 in history历史.
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最迅速发展成功的农业创新。
13:04
They're good for the environment环境 because they enable启用 no-till免耕 farming农业,
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他们有利于环境的保护,因为它们免去了翻土的耕作
13:07
which哪一个 leaves树叶 the soil in place地点,
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使得土壤年复一年
13:09
getting得到 healthier健康 from year to year --
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变得更加肥沃。
13:11
slsoslso keeps保持 less carbon dioxide二氧化碳 going from the soil
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也不断减少二氧化碳从土壤中排放
13:13
into the atmosphere大气层.
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到大气。
13:15
They reduce减少 pesticide农药 use.
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它们减少了农药的使用,
13:17
And they increase增加 yield产量, which哪一个 allows允许 you to have your
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还增加产量
13:19
agricultural农业的 area be smaller,
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在面积比较小的土地上就收获很多的粮食。
13:22
and therefore因此 more wild野生 area is freed释放 up.
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以致于让更多野外土地回归自然。
13:25
By the way, this map地图 from 2006
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顺便说一下,2006年这张地图
13:27
is out of date日期 because it shows节目 Africa非洲
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已经过时。但它显示
13:29
still under the thumb拇指 of Greenpeace绿色和平,
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受绿色和平组织
13:31
and Friends of the Earth地球 from Europe欧洲,
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和欧洲地球之友控制下的非洲。
13:34
and they're finally最后 getting得到 out from under that.
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他们最终摆脱那些控制。
13:36
And biotech生物技术 is moving移动 rapidly急速 in Africa非洲, at last.
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最后,生物技术正快速在非洲发展。
13:39
This is a moral道德 issue问题.
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这是一个道德问题。
13:41
The Nuffield纳菲尔德 Council评议会 on Bioethics生命伦理学
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纳菲尔德生物伦理会议
13:43
met会见 on this issue问题 twice两次 in great detail详情
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就这个问题详细讨论,并召开两次会议,
13:45
and said it is a moral道德 imperative势在必行
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并表示这是一个道德责任,
13:47
to make genetically基因 engineered工程 crops作物 readily容易 available可得到.
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并使转基因作物随时可应用。
13:50
Speaking请讲 of imperatives当务之急, geoengineering地球工程 is taboo忌讳 now,
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要讲到紧要事情,人工气候改造是一个禁忌话题
13:53
especially特别 in government政府 circles,
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特别是在政府内部
13:55
though虽然 I think there was a DARPADARPA meeting会议 on it a couple一对 of weeks ago,
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但我知道就在几个星期前,美国国防高级研究规划局还为此开了一个会
13:57
but it will be on your plate盘子 --
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但地球工程是事关你的事情,
13:59
not this year but pretty漂亮 soon不久,
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不是今年,但很快就会发生。
14:02
because some harsh苛刻 realizations变现 are coming未来 along沿.
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因为一些严峻的事实随之显现出来。
14:05
This is a list名单 of them.
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这是其中的一个清单。
14:07
Basically基本上 the news新闻 is going to keep getting得到 more scary害怕.
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事实上所知的会越来越可怕。
14:10
There will be events事件,
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将有一系列事件,
14:12
like 35,000 people dying垂死 of a heat wave,
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如前阵子发生
14:15
which哪一个 happened发生 a while back.
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35000人死于热浪
14:17
Like cyclones旋风 coming未来 up toward Bangladesh孟加拉国.
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又如袭击孟加拉国的龙卷风。
14:20
Like wars战争 over water,
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还有因为争夺水源而引发的战争
14:22
such这样 as in the Indus梧桐.
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例如印度河水患。
14:24
And as those events事件 keep happening事件
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由于这些事件不断发生,
14:26
we're going to say, "Okay, what can we do about that really?"
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我们可能会说,“好吧,我们到底能做些什么呢?”
14:28
But there's this little problem问题 with geoengineering地球工程:
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但这是地球工程的小问题。
14:33
what body身体 is going to decide决定
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哪一个机构来做出决定
14:37
who gets得到 to engineer工程师? How much they do? Where they do it?
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工程师是谁?他们做什么?他们在哪做?
14:39
Because everybody每个人 is downstream下游,
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因为不管这一气候改造工程结果如何
14:41
downwind顺风 of whatever随你 is doneDONE.
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我们每个人到都将深受其影响
14:44
And if we just taboo忌讳 it completely全然
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如果我们要完全将此作为禁忌话题的话
14:46
we could lose失去 civilization文明.
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人类文明也有可能走向灭亡
14:48
But if we just say "OK,
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但假如我们说,“好吧
14:51
China中国, you're worried担心, you go ahead.
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中国,你要是担心的话,你先行动。
14:53
You geoengineergeoengineer your way. We'll geoengineergeoengineer our way."
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你们的地球工程有你们的方式。我们有我们自己的。
14:57
That would be considered考虑 an act法案 of war战争 by both nations国家.
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这就好比两国间的战争行为。
15:00
So this is very interesting有趣 diplomacy外交 coming未来 along沿.
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接下来是非常有趣的外交对话。
15:04
I should say, it is more practical实际的 than people think.
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但实际上要实现这样的工程比人们想象的要容易得多
15:07
Here is an example that climatologists气象学 like a lot,
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气候学家很关注下面的例子。
15:10
one of the dozens许多 of geoengineering地球工程 ideas思路.
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许多地球工程点子中的一个,
15:12
This one came来了 from the sulfur dioxide二氧化碳
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1991年,皮纳图博火山喷发,
15:14
from Mount安装 Pinatubo皮纳图博火山 in 1991 --
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所喷出的二氧化硫
15:17
cooled冷却 the earth地球 by half a degree.
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使得地球的温度降低了摄氏半度。
15:21
There was so much ice in 1992, the following以下 year,
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第二年1992年,很多的冰
15:23
that there was a bumper保险杠 crop作物 of polar极性 bear cubs幼崽
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才使北极熊幼仔丰产,
15:26
who were known已知 as the Pinatubo皮纳图博火山 cubs幼崽.
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它们取名皮纳图博北极熊宝宝。
15:28
To put sulfur dioxide二氧化碳 in the stratosphere平流层
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向平流层中排放二氧化硫
15:30
would cost成本 on the order订购 of a billion十亿 dollars美元 a year.
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每年将花费10亿美元成本
15:33
That's nothing, compared相比 to all of the other
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相对于我们有关能源可能要做的所有事情,
15:36
things we may可能 be trying to do about energy能源.
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这真不算什么。
15:38
Just to run by another另一个 one:
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另一个应用的例子
15:41
this is a plan计划 to brighten变亮 the reflectance反射率 of ocean海洋 clouds,
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计划是靠雾化海水
15:44
by atomizing雾化 seawater海水;
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使海洋云层反射更加活跃
15:46
that would brighten变亮 the albedo反照率 of the whole整个 planet行星.
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这将影响整个地球的反照率。
15:48
A nice不错 one, because it can happen发生
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因为它可以
15:50
lots of little ways方法 in lots of little places地方,
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在许多很小的地方以很多不同方式发生
15:52
is by copying仿形 the ancient Amazon亚马逊 Indians印度人
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一个好例子是仿照古代亚马逊印第安人
15:54
who made制作 good agricultural农业的 soil
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通过热分解,不完全燃烧,植物废料
15:56
by pyrolizing热解, smoldering闷烧, plant waste浪费,
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使农业土壤更肥沃
16:00
and biochar生物炭 fixes修复 large quantities数量 of carbon
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生物炭替代大量的碳
16:03
while it's improving提高 the soil.
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从而改善土壤。
16:05
So here is where we are.
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这是我们的准则。
16:08
Nobel诺贝尔 Prize-winning奖得主 climatologist气候学家 Paul保罗 Crutzen克鲁岑
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诺贝尔奖得主气候学家保罗·克鲁岑
16:11
calls电话 our geological地质 era时代 the Anthropocene人类世,
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把我们现今这个地质时代称为人类世
16:14
the human-dominated人类主宰 era时代. We are stuck卡住
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也就是说现在人类活动正在改变着地球的面貌
16:17
with its obligations义务.
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并且我们还将不得不继续完成这样的任务
16:20
In the Whole整个 Earth地球 Catalog目录, my first words were,
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在《地球目录》的第一句话是
16:22
"We are as Gods, and might威力 as well get good at it."
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“我们就像上帝一样,也许我们可以做好这个角色。”
16:24
The first words of Whole整个 Earth地球 Discipline学科
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而《地球的法则》的第一句话是:
16:27
are, "We are as Gods, and have to get good at it."
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“我们就是上帝,我们必须做好这个角色。”
16:31
Thank you.
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谢谢。
16:33
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Angelia King
Reviewed by Tony Yet

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Stewart Brand - Environmentalist, futurist
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ...

Why you should listen

With biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, the revival of extinct species is becoming possible. Stewart Brand plans to not only bring species back but restore them to the wild.

Brand is already a legend in the tech industry for things he’s created: the Whole Earth Catalog, The WELL, the Global Business Network, the Long Now Foundation, and the notion that “information wants to be free.” Now Brand, a lifelong environmentalist, wants to re-create -- or “de-extinct” -- a few animals that’ve disappeared from the planet.

Granted, resurrecting the woolly mammoth using ancient DNA may sound like mad science. But Brand’s Revive and Restore project has an entirely rational goal: to learn what causes extinctions so we can protect currently endangered species, preserve genetic and biological diversity, repair depleted ecosystems, and essentially “undo harm that humans have caused in the past.”

More profile about the speaker
Stewart Brand | Speaker | TED.com