ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tali Sharot - Cognitive neuroscientist
Tali Sharot studies why our brains are biased toward optimism.

Why you should listen

Optimism bias is the belief that the future will be better, much better, than the past or present. And most of us display this bias. Neuroscientist Tali Sharot wants to know why: What is it about our brains that makes us overestimate the positive? She explores the question in her book The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain

In the book (and a 2011 TIME magazine cover story), she reviewed findings from both social science and neuroscience that point to an interesting conclusion: "our brains aren't just stamped by the past. They are constantly being shaped by the future." In her own work, she's interested in how our natural optimism actually shapes what we remember, and her interesting range of papers encompasses behavioral research (how likely we are to misremember major events) as well as medical findings -- like searching for the places in the brain where optimism lives. Sharot is a faculty member of the Department of Cognitive, Perceptual and Brain Sciences at University College London.

 

More profile about the speaker
Tali Sharot | Speaker | TED.com
TED2012

Tali Sharot: The optimism bias

Tali Sharot: 樂觀偏見

Filmed:
2,387,106 views

我們是否生來就樂觀,而非實際?Tali Sharot分享了新的研究建議我們的大腦應該看光明面─又為何是何既危險又有利
- Cognitive neuroscientist
Tali Sharot studies why our brains are biased toward optimism. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
I'm going to talk to you about optimism樂觀 --
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我想和你們談談樂觀主義--
00:19
or more precisely恰恰, the optimism樂觀 bias偏壓.
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或者更準確的說,樂觀偏見。
00:21
It's a cognitive認知 illusion錯覺
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這是個認知錯覺
00:23
that we've我們已經 been studying研究 in my lab實驗室 for the past過去 few少數 years年份,
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過去數年來一直在我的實驗室裏研究著,
00:26
and 80 percent百分 of us have it.
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我們之中有80%都得過。
00:28
It's our tendency趨勢 to overestimate估計過高
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我們容易高估
00:30
our likelihood可能性 of experiencing經歷 good events事件 in our lives生活
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可能是因為生活中所經歷的都是好事
00:33
and underestimate低估 our likelihood可能性 of experiencing經歷 bad events事件.
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卻低估了可能也會經歷到壞事
00:37
So we underestimate低估 our likelihood可能性 of suffering痛苦 from cancer癌症,
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所以我們低估了可能也會患有癌症
00:40
being存在 in a car汽車 accident事故.
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可能也會出車禍
00:42
We overestimate估計過高 our longevity長壽, our career事業 prospects前途.
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我們高估了壽命、職涯前景
00:45
In short, we're more optimistic樂觀 than realistic實際,
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簡言之,我們是樂觀多於實際
00:48
but we are oblivious渾然不覺 to the fact事實.
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但是我們都忽略了一個事實
00:51
Take marriage婚姻 for example.
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就拿婚姻來說
00:53
In the Western西 world世界, divorce離婚 rates利率 are about 40 percent百分.
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離婚率在西方世界大約是40%
00:56
That means手段 that out of five married已婚 couples情侶,
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也就是說五對已婚夫妻中
01:00
two will end結束 up splitting分裂 their assets資產.
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有兩對會玩完了然後分財產
01:03
But when you ask newlyweds新婚夫婦 about their own擁有 likelihood可能性 of divorce離婚,
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但是當你問新婚夫妻他們本身的離婚可能性時
01:06
they estimate估計 it at zero percent百分.
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他們都說百分之百的不可能
01:10
And even divorce離婚 lawyers律師, who should really know better,
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甚至連離婚律師,他才更應該真正的了解,
01:13
hugely巨大 underestimate低估 their own擁有 likelihood可能性 of divorce離婚.
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也是大大地低估了他們自己離婚的可能性。
01:17
So it turns out that optimists樂觀主義者 are not less likely容易 to divorce離婚,
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所以結論就是樂觀者不是不可能離婚
01:20
but they are more likely容易 to remarry再婚.
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而是較可能再婚
01:23
In the words of Samuel塞繆爾 Johnson約翰遜,
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塞謬耳‧約翰曾說過,
01:25
"Remarriage再婚 is the triumph勝利 of hope希望 over experience經驗."
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“再婚是希望對經歷的勝利。”
01:29
(Laughter笑聲)
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(觀眾大笑)
01:31
So if we're married已婚, we're more likely容易 to have kids孩子.
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所以如果我們結了婚,就比較可能有小孩。
01:36
And we all think our kids孩子 will be especially特別 talented天才.
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而且都會認為我們的小孩特別聰明。
01:39
This, by the way, is my two-year-old二十歲 nephew外甥, Guy.
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這一位,順便一提,是我的兩歲外甥,蓋。
01:42
And I just want to make it absolutely絕對 clear明確
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我想說的只是
01:44
that he's a really bad example of the optimism樂觀 bias偏壓,
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他真的是樂觀偏見的壞榜樣
01:47
because he is in fact事實 uniquely獨特地 talented天才.
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因為他真的是絕頂聰明。
01:50
(Laughter笑聲)
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(觀眾大笑)
01:51
And I'm not alone單獨.
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而且不是只有我這麼認為
01:53
Out of four British英國的 people, three said
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四個英國人中,有三個會說
01:55
that they were optimistic樂觀 about the future未來 of their own擁有 families家庭.
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他們對於自己家人的前途都相當樂觀
01:59
That's 75 percent百分.
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這樣的比例有75%
02:01
But only 30 percent百分 said
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但只有30%的人說
02:03
that they thought families家庭 in general一般
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他們認為一般說來家人
02:05
are doing better than a few少數 generations ago.
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做得比前幾代要好
02:08
And this is a really important重要 point,
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這真的是很重要的一點,
02:10
because we're optimistic樂觀 about ourselves我們自己,
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因為我們對自己樂觀,
02:11
we're optimistic樂觀 about our kids孩子,
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我們對孩子樂觀,
02:13
we're optimistic樂觀 about our families家庭,
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對我們的家人樂觀,
02:15
but we're not so optimistic樂觀 about the guy sitting坐在 next下一個 to us,
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但是對坐在我們旁邊的人卻不是那麼樂觀,
02:18
and we're somewhat有些 pessimistic悲觀
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反而有些悲觀
02:20
about the fate命運 of our fellow同伴 citizens公民 and the fate命運 of our country國家.
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對我們的市民同胞的命運及國家的命運。
02:24
But private私人的 optimism樂觀 about our own擁有 personal個人 future未來
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但是對於我們個人前途的私人樂觀
02:28
remains遺跡 persistent一貫.
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仍然持續。
02:30
And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically神奇 turn out okay,
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這並不是說我們認為事情會奇蹟般的變好,
02:34
but rather that we have the unique獨特 ability能力 to make it so.
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而是我們有獨特的能力使它變好
02:39
Now I'm a scientist科學家, I do experiments實驗.
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現在,我是個科學家,我做實驗。
02:41
So to show顯示 you what I mean,
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所以為了告訴你們我的本意,
02:43
I'm going to do an experiment實驗 here with you.
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我在這裏要和你們一起做個實驗。
02:46
So I'm going to give you a list名單 of abilities能力 and characteristics特點,
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我打算列出一張能力和特性的清單,
02:50
and I want you to think for each of these abilities能力
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我要你們想想看這些每個能力
02:53
where you stand relative相對的 to the rest休息 of the population人口.
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你所佔據的位置,與其它人相比
02:57
The first one is getting得到 along沿 well with others其他.
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第一個是和他人相處得很好
03:01
Who here believes相信 they're at the bottom底部 25 percent百分?
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在座各位有誰相信自己是最底部的25%?
03:07
Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500.
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好吧,那大概是1,500人中的10個
03:11
Who believes相信 they're at the top最佳 25 percent百分?
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有誰相信自己是最頂端的25%?
03:15
That's most of us here.
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這裏大部份人都相信。
03:18
Okay, now do the same相同 for your driving主動 ability能力.
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好。 同樣的事也發生在你的駕駛能力上
03:22
How interesting有趣 are you?
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你這個人有多有趣?
03:25
How attractive有吸引力 are you?
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你有多少吸引力?
03:28
How honest誠實 are you?
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你有多誠實?
03:31
And finally最後, how modest謙虛 are you?
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最後,你有多謙虛?
03:36
So most of us put ourselves我們自己 above以上 average平均
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所以大部份的人把自己放在水平之上
03:39
on most of these abilities能力.
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對這些能力來說
03:41
Now this is statistically統計學 impossible不可能.
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這是完全不可能的
03:43
We can't all be better than everyone大家 else其他.
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我們不可能次次比別人好
03:46
(Laughter笑聲)
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(觀眾大笑)
03:48
But if we believe we're better than the other guy,
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但是如果我們相信自己比他人好
03:50
well that means手段 that we're more likely容易 to get that promotion提升, to remain married已婚,
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就是說我們容易高升、容易維持婚姻
03:54
because we're more social社會, more interesting有趣.
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因為我們較社會化、較有趣
03:57
And it's a global全球 phenomenon現象.
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這是個全球化的現象
03:59
The optimism樂觀 bias偏壓 has been observed觀察到的
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樂觀偏見已經被注意到了
04:02
in many許多 different不同 countries國家 --
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在許多不同的國家裏
04:03
in Western西 cultures文化, in non-Western非西方 cultures文化,
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在西方文化裏、在非西方文化裏
04:06
in females女性 and males男性,
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在女性與男性之間
04:08
in kids孩子, in the elderly老年.
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在小孩和年長者之間
04:10
It's quite相當 widespread廣泛.
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分佈甚廣
04:11
But the question is, is it good for us?
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但問題是,對我們而言好嗎?
04:15
So some people say no.
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有些人說不好
04:17
Some people say the secret秘密 to happiness幸福
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有些人說幸福的秘訣
04:20
is low expectations期望.
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就是期望不高
04:23
I think the logic邏輯 goes something like this:
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我想邏輯是這樣的:
04:25
If we don't expect期望 greatness偉大,
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如果我們的期盼不高,
04:27
if we don't expect期望 to find love and be healthy健康 and successful成功,
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如果我們不期盼找到愛、身體健康和事業成功,
04:31
well we're not going to be disappointed失望 when these things don't happen發生.
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嗯,當這些事都沒發生時,我們就不會失望。
04:34
And if we're not disappointed失望 when good things don't happen發生,
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而且,就算好事沒發生時,我們也不會失望
04:38
and we're pleasantly愉快 surprised詫異 when they do,
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如果發生了好事,就算給我們一個大驚喜
04:40
we will be happy快樂.
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我們會很快樂。
04:42
So it's a very good theory理論,
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所以這是個相當好的推論,
04:43
but it turns out to be wrong錯誤 for three reasons原因.
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但是有三個理由讓它變成錯的。
04:46
Number one: Whatever隨你 happens發生, whether是否 you succeed成功 or you fail失敗,
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第一:不論發生什麼事,不管你成功還是失敗,
04:51
people with high expectations期望 always feel better.
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期待高的人通常都會自我感覺較好。
04:55
Because how we feel when we get dumped or win贏得 employee僱員 of the month
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因為,我們被人拋棄或當上明星店員的感覺如何,
04:59
depends依靠 on how we interpret that event事件.
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完全看我們怎麼解釋那件事而定
05:02
The psychologists心理學家 Margaret瑪格麗特 Marshall馬歇爾 and John約翰 Brown棕色
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心裡學家Margraret Marshall 及 John Brown
05:06
studied研究 students學生們 with high and low expectations期望.
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研究期盼高及期盼低的學生。
05:09
And they found發現 that when people with high expectations期望 succeed成功,
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他發現期待高的人成功時,
05:13
they attribute屬性 that success成功 to their own擁有 traits性狀.
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他們將成功歸功於自己的人格特質。
05:16
"I'm a genius天才, therefore因此 I got an A,
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’“我是個天才,所以我得個A,
05:18
therefore因此 I'll get an A again and again in the future未來."
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所以以後我也會一再得A。”
05:21
When they failed失敗, it wasn't because they were dumb,
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當他們失敗時,不是因為他們笨。
05:24
but because the exam考試 just happened發生 to be unfair不公平.
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而是因為這個考試剛巧不公平,
05:27
Next下一個 time they will do better.
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下一次他們會考得更好。
05:29
People with low expectations期望 do the opposite對面.
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期盼低的人剛好相反。
05:32
So when they failed失敗 it was because they were dumb,
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所以當他們失敗時他們就是笨,
05:35
and when they succeeded成功
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而當他們成功時,
05:37
it was because the exam考試 just happened發生 to be really easy簡單.
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是因為考試剛巧真的太簡單,
05:40
Next下一個 time reality現實 would catch抓住 up with them.
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下一次就會露出馬腳了。
05:42
So they felt worse更差.
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所以他們覺得很糟。
05:44
Number two: Regardless而不管 of the outcome結果,
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第二:不管結果,
05:48
the pure act法案 of anticipation預期 makes品牌 us happy快樂.
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單純的期待行為使我們快樂,
05:52
The behavioral行為的 economist經濟學家 George喬治 Lowenstein洛溫斯坦
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行為經濟學家George Lowenstein
05:55
asked students學生們 in his university大學
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在大學裏問學生
05:57
to imagine想像 getting得到 a passionate多情 kiss from a celebrity名人, any celebrity名人.
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得到名人的熱吻的印象,任何名人
06:01
Then he said, "How much are you willing願意 to pay工資
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他說:“你願付多少錢
06:04
to get a kiss from a celebrity名人
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得到名人的吻
06:06
if the kiss was delivered交付 immediately立即,
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如果吻馬上就來,
06:08
in three hours小時, in 24 hours小時, in three days,
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3小時內,24小時內,3天內
06:13
in one year, in 10 years年份?
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1年內,10年內?
06:15
He found發現 that the students學生們 were willing願意 to pay工資 the most
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他發現學生最願意付的是
06:19
not to get a kiss immediately立即,
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不要馬上就能得到的吻
06:21
but to get a kiss in three days.
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而是3天內能得到的吻,
06:24
They were willing願意 to pay工資 extra額外 in order訂購 to wait.
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也有人願意支付額外費用來等待一個吻
06:28
Now they weren't willing願意 to wait a year or 10 years年份;
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但他們不願意一等就等個1年或10年的;
06:31
no one wants an aging老化 celebrity名人.
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因為沒人會要個上了年紀的名人,
06:32
But three days seemed似乎 to be the optimum最佳 amount.
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但是三天似乎是最佳的天數
06:37
So why is that?
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為什麼會這樣?
06:39
Well if you get the kiss now, it's over and doneDONE with.
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嗯。如果你現在馬上就被親一下,那一切就沒事了
06:43
But if you get the kiss in three days,
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但是如果你三天內才被親
06:45
well that's three days of jittery風聲鶴唳 anticipation預期, the thrill顫抖 of the wait.
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那就有三天緊張的預期,等待的快感
06:49
The students學生們 wanted that time
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學生要那個時間
06:51
to imagine想像 where is it going to happen發生,
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來想像即將要發生什麼事,
06:53
how is it going to happen發生.
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究竟是怎麼發生的。
06:55
Anticipation預期 made製作 them happy快樂.
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期待使他們快樂。
06:57
This is, by the way, why people prefer比較喜歡 Friday星期五 to Sunday星期日.
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這也就是,順道一提的,為何人們比週日還喜歡週五。
07:01
It's a really curious好奇 fact事實,
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這真是讓人難以理解的事實,
07:03
because Friday星期五 is a day of work and Sunday星期日 is a day of pleasure樂趣,
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因為週五是個工作天而週日是個歡樂天,
07:06
so you'd assume承擔 that people will prefer比較喜歡 Sunday星期日,
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所以可以假設人們較喜歡星期天,
07:09
but they don't.
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但不是。
07:11
It's not because they really, really like being存在 in the office辦公室
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不是因為他們真的、真的愛呆在辦公室
07:14
and they can't stand strolling漫步 in the park公園
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也不是因為他們不能忍受在公園裏散步
07:16
or having a lazy brunch早午餐.
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或是不想吃個慵懶的早午餐
07:17
We know that, because when you ask people
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我們知道,因為當你問人
07:20
about their ultimate最終 favorite喜愛 day of the week,
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一週中最喜歡哪一天
07:22
surprise, surprise, Saturday星期六 comes in at first,
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驚訝吧,驚訝吧,週六是首選,
07:25
then Friday星期五, then Sunday星期日.
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之後是週五,再來才是週日,
07:28
People prefer比較喜歡 Friday星期五
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人們喜歡週五
07:30
because Friday星期五 brings帶來 with it the anticipation預期 of the weekend週末 ahead,
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因為週五為週末帶來期待,
07:34
all the plans計劃 that you have.
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期待所有的計劃
07:36
On Sunday星期日, the only thing you can look forward前鋒 to
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但在週日,唯一能企望到的
07:38
is the work week.
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就是整週的工作。
07:41
So optimists樂觀主義者 are people who expect期望 more kisses in their future未來,
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所以樂觀者就是期待未來能有更多吻的人
07:46
more strolls散步 in the park公園.
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在公園裏更多的散步
07:48
And that anticipation預期 enhances提高 their wellbeing福利.
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所以期待提高了他們的幸福感
07:51
In fact事實, without the optimism樂觀 bias偏壓,
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事實上,沒有了樂觀偏見
07:54
we would all be slightly depressed鬱悶.
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我們都會有一點點沮喪
07:57
People with mild溫和 depression蕭條,
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輕度憂鬱症患者,
07:59
they don't have a bias偏壓 when they look into the future未來.
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當他們展望未來時完全沒有偏見
08:02
They're actually其實 more realistic實際 than healthy健康 individuals個人.
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實際上,他們比健康的人更現實
08:07
But individuals個人 with severe嚴重 depression蕭條,
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但是重度憂鬱症患者
08:09
they have a pessimistic悲觀 bias偏壓.
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他們有悲觀的偏見
08:11
So they tend趨向 to expect期望 the future未來
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所以往往盼望前途
08:13
to be worse更差 than it ends結束 up being存在.
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比死亡結束時要差
08:15
So optimism樂觀 changes變化 subjective主觀 reality現實.
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所以樂觀改變了主觀的現實
08:19
The way we expect期望 the world世界 to be changes變化 the way we see it.
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我們期盼世界變成我們眼見的方式
08:22
But it also changes變化 objective目的 reality現實.
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但是也改變了客觀存在
08:26
It acts行為 as a self-fulfilling自我實現 prophecy預言.
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它表現得像個自我實現的預言
08:28
And that is the third第三 reason原因
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第三個理由
08:31
why lowering降低 your expectations期望 will not make you happy快樂.
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為什麼降低期待不會使你感到快樂
08:34
Controlled受控 experiments實驗 have shown顯示
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對照實驗顯示
08:36
that optimism樂觀 is not only related有關 to success成功,
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樂觀不只和成功有關,
08:38
it leads引線 to success成功.
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樂觀導向成功
08:40
Optimism樂觀 leads引線 to success成功 in academia學術界 and sports體育 and politics政治.
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樂觀在學術界及運動界和政治界導向成功
08:45
And maybe the most surprising奇怪 benefit效益 of optimism樂觀 is health健康.
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樂觀最令人驚喜的好處就是健康
08:50
If we expect期望 the future未來 to be bright,
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如果我們期盼前途是光明的
08:53
stress強調 and anxiety焦慮 are reduced減少.
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壓力及焦慮會降低
08:56
So all in all, optimism樂觀 has lots of benefits好處.
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所以總而言之,樂觀有很多好處
09:00
But the question that was really confusing撲朔迷離 to me was,
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但是真正困擾我的問題是
09:03
how do we maintain保持 optimism樂觀 in the face面對 of reality現實?
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我們如何在現實面前保持樂觀?
09:08
As an neuroscientist神經學家, this was especially特別 confusing撲朔迷離,
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身為一個神經科學家,感到特別的困擾,
09:11
because according根據 to all the theories理論 out there,
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因為根據那裏所有的理論
09:13
when your expectations期望 are not met會見, you should alter改變 them.
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期待未達時,就應該改變他們
09:18
But this is not what we find.
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但這不是我們所發現的
09:19
We asked people to come into our lab實驗室
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我們要求人們來到實驗室
09:23
in order訂購 to try and figure數字 out what was going on.
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為的是嘗試而且弄清楚倒底是怎麼一回事
09:26
We asked them to estimate估計 their likelihood可能性
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我們要求他們評估自己
09:28
of experiencing經歷 different不同 terrible可怕 events事件 in their lives生活.
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經歷生活中不同的恐怖事件的可能性
09:31
So, for example, what is your likelihood可能性 of suffering痛苦 from cancer癌症?
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例如,得癌症的可能性為何?
09:35
And then we told them the average平均 likelihood可能性
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之後我們告訴他們像他們這樣的人
09:37
of someone有人 like them to suffer遭受 these misfortunes不幸.
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遭受這些不幸的平均可能性
09:40
So cancer癌症, for example, is about 30 percent百分.
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所以癌症,舉例來說,大約30%
09:44
And then we asked them again,
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之後我們再問他們一次,
09:47
"How likely容易 are you to suffer遭受 from cancer癌症?"
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“得癌症的可能性有多大?”
09:50
What we wanted to know was
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我們想知道的是
09:52
whether是否 people will take the information信息 that we gave them
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人們是否會採信我們給的消息
09:55
to change更改 their beliefs信仰.
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來改變他們的看法。
09:57
And indeed確實 they did --
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他們真的會
09:59
but mostly大多 when the information信息 we gave them
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但大部份是在我們給他們的消息
10:02
was better than what they expected預期.
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比他們期待的消息還要好的時候
10:04
So for example,
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所以舉例來說
10:06
if someone有人 said, "My likelihood可能性 of suffering痛苦 from cancer癌症
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如果某人說,“我得癌症的可能性
10:09
is about 50 percent百分,"
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大概是50%,”
10:11
and we said, "Hey, good news新聞.
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我們會說,“嘿,好消息。
10:14
The average平均 likelihood可能性 is only 30 percent百分,"
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平均可能性只有30%,”
10:16
the next下一個 time around they would say,
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下一次大概他們就會說,
10:18
"Well maybe my likelihood可能性 is about 35 percent百分."
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“嗯,我的可能性大約是35%,”
10:21
So they learned學到了 quickly很快 and efficiently有效率的.
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所以他們學得很快也很有效率
10:24
But if someone有人 started開始 off saying,
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但是如果有人開始說
10:26
"My average平均 likelihood可能性 of suffering痛苦 from cancer癌症 is about 10 percent百分,"
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“我得癌的一般可能性大約是10%,”
10:30
and we said, "Hey, bad news新聞.
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我們就會說“嗨,壞消息。
10:32
The average平均 likelihood可能性 is about 30 percent百分,"
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一般得病的可能性是30%
10:35
the next下一個 time around they would say,
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到了下一次大概他們會說
10:37
"Yep是的. Still think it's about 11 percent百分."
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是,我仍然認為大約是11%
10:41
(Laughter笑聲)
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(全場觀眾大笑)
10:42
So it's not that they didn't learn學習 at all -- they did --
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所以不是他們完全不知道--他們知道--
10:46
but much, much less than when we gave them
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但是比我們告訴他們的
10:48
positive information信息 about the future未來.
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有關未來的正面信息要少很多
10:50
And it's not that they didn't remember記得 the numbers數字 that we gave them;
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也不是他們不記得我們給他們的數字
10:53
everyone大家 remembers記得 that the average平均 likelihood可能性 of cancer癌症
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每個人都記得癌症的平均可能性
10:56
is about 30 percent百分
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大約是30%
10:58
and the average平均 likelihood可能性 of divorce離婚 is about 40 percent百分.
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而離婚的平均可能性大約是40%
11:01
But they didn't think that those numbers數字 were related有關 to them.
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但是他們不認為這些數字跟他們有關
11:05
What this means手段 is that warning警告 signs跡象 such這樣 as these
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這表示像這樣的警告跡象
11:10
may可能 only have limited有限 impact碰撞.
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影響也有限
11:12
Yes, smoking抽煙 kills殺死, but mostly大多 it kills殺死 the other guy.
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是的,吸煙殺人,但是大部份是殺了別人
11:17
What I wanted to know was
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我想知道的是
11:18
what was going on inside the human人的 brain
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人類腦中倒底發生了什麼事
11:21
that prevented防止 us from taking服用 these warning警告 signs跡象 personally親自.
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才會讓我們以為這些警告跡象不是衝著我們來的
11:25
But at the same相同 time,
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但是同時
11:27
when we hear that the housing住房 market市場 is hopeful有希望,
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當我們聽到房市很有希望的時候
11:29
we think, "Oh, my house is definitely無疑 going to double in price價錢."
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我們就會想,“喔,我的房子絕對漲了兩倍
11:33
To try and figure數字 that out,
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試著找出來
11:35
I asked the participants參與者 in the experiment實驗
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我要求實驗室裏的參與者
11:38
to lie謊言 in a brain imaging成像 scanner掃描器.
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躺在腦成像掃描儀裏
11:40
It looks容貌 like this.
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看起來就像這樣
11:41
And using運用 a method方法 called functional實用 MRIMRI,
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而且用一種叫做核磁共振的儀器
11:44
we were able能夠 to identify鑑定 regions地區 in the brain
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我們可以辨認出腦中的哪些部位
11:48
that were responding響應 to positive information信息.
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回應了正面信息
11:51
One of these regions地區 is called the left inferior frontal前面的 gyrus.
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其中一個部份被稱為左前下腦回
11:54
So if someone有人 said, "My likelihood可能性 of suffering痛苦 from cancer癌症 is 50 percent百分,"
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所以如果某人說,“我得癌的可能性是50%”
11:58
and we said, "Hey, good news新聞.
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我們會說,“嘿,好消息。”
12:00
Average平均 likelihood可能性 is 30 percent百分,"
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一般的可能性是30%”
12:02
the left inferior frontal前面的 gyrus would respond響應 fiercely激烈.
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左前下腦回將強烈的回應
12:06
And it didn't matter if you're an extreme極端 optimist樂天派, a mild溫和 optimist樂天派
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就算你是個極端樂觀主義者,溫和的樂觀主義者,
12:10
or slightly pessimistic悲觀,
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或是輕度的悲觀者 ,那都不重要
12:12
everyone's大家的 left inferior frontal前面的 gyrus
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每個人的左前下腦回
12:15
was functioning功能 perfectly完美 well,
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都運作得很好
12:17
whether是否 you're Barack巴拉克 Obama奧巴馬 or Woody伍迪 Allen艾倫.
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不管你是歐巴馬或是伍迪艾倫
12:20
On the other side of the brain,
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在腦的另一邊
12:21
the right inferior frontal前面的 gyrus was responding響應 to bad news新聞.
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右前下腦回只對壞消息有所回應
12:26
And here's這裡的 the thing: it wasn't doing a very good job工作.
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事情來了: 它做得不是很好
12:30
The more optimistic樂觀 you were,
256
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你愈是樂觀
12:32
the less likely容易 this region地區 was
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這個部份就不太可能
12:34
to respond響應 to unexpected意外 negative information信息.
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對意想不到的負面消息做出回應
12:37
And if your brain is failing失敗
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如果你的大腦
12:40
at integrating整合 bad news新聞 about the future未來,
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無法整合與未來有關的壞消息
12:43
you will constantly經常 leave離開 your rose-tinted玫瑰色 spectacles眼鏡 on.
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你就會一直保持樂觀
12:48
So we wanted to know, could we change更改 this?
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所以我們想知道,我們能改變嗎?
12:53
Could we alter改變 people's人們 optimism樂觀 bias偏壓
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我們能不能透過干擾這些部份的腦活動
12:56
by interfering干擾 with the brain activity活動 in these regions地區?
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來改變人們的樂觀偏見?
13:00
And there's a way for us to do that.
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有一個方法
13:03
This is my collaborator合作者 Ryota良太 Kanai金井.
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這是我的合作人Ryota Kanai
13:06
And what he's doing is he's passing通過 a small magnetic磁性 pulse脈衝
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他正在做的就是把小型電磁脈衝
13:10
through通過 the skull頭骨 of the participant參加者 in our study研究
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透過參加研究者的頭骨
13:12
into their inferior frontal前面的 gyrus.
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傳送到他們的額下回
13:14
And by doing that,
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這樣做
13:16
he's interfering干擾 with the activity活動 of this brain region地區
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他的這些大腦區域活動就會被干擾
13:19
for about half an hour小時.
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大約半小時
13:20
After that everything goes back to normal正常, I assure保證 you.
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我向你保證,之後每件事都回到正常
13:23
(Laughter笑聲)
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(觀眾大笑)
13:25
So let's see what happens發生.
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所以讓我們看看發生了什麼事
13:28
First of all, I'm going to show顯示 you
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首先,我要給你們看的是
13:30
the average平均 amount of bias偏壓 that we see.
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我們所見的偏見的平均量
13:33
So if I was to test測試 all of you now,
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所以如果現在我要試試你們所有的人
13:36
this is the amount that you would learn學習
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這就是你們
13:37
more from good news新聞 relative相對的 to bad news新聞.
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相對於壞消息來說 聽到了更多好消息
13:41
Now we interfere干擾 with the region地區
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現在我們來干擾一下
13:43
that we found發現 to integrate整合 negative information信息 in this task任務,
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我們找到的這個 整合負面消息的腦部區域
13:48
and the optimism樂觀 bias偏壓 grew成長 even larger.
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樂觀主義的偏見就會愈來愈大
13:51
We made製作 people more biased in the way that they process處理 information信息.
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我們使得人們在處理消息的方面更加偏激
13:57
Then we interfered干擾 with the brain region地區
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所以我們干擾腦區域
13:59
that we found發現 to integrate整合 good news新聞 in this task任務,
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我們找到的這個 整合負面消息的腦部區域
14:03
and the optimism樂觀 bias偏壓 disappeared消失.
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而樂觀偏見就消失了
14:07
We were quite相當 amazed吃驚 by these results結果
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我們對這些結果相當震驚
14:09
because we were able能夠 to eliminate消除
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因為我們可以消除
14:12
a deep-rooted刻骨 bias偏壓 in humans人類.
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人類根深蒂固的偏見
14:15
And at this point we stopped停止 and we asked ourselves我們自己,
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在這一點上我們停了下來而且問自己
14:20
would we want to shatter打碎 the optimism樂觀 illusion錯覺 into tiny little bits?
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是不是要把樂觀的幻想粉碎成一小片一小片?
14:25
If we could do that, would we want to take people's人們 optimism樂觀 bias偏壓 away?
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如果可以這樣做,我們會不會是想取走人們的樂觀偏見?
14:30
Well I've already已經 told you about all of the benefits好處 of the optimism樂觀 bias偏壓,
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我已經告訴你樂觀偏見的所有好處
14:34
which哪一個 probably大概 makes品牌 you want to hold保持 onto it for dear life.
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你可能會想在寶貴的生活裏繼續保有
14:39
But there are, of course課程, pitfalls陷阱,
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但是當然有圈套
14:41
and it would be really foolish of us to ignore忽視 them.
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而我們真是蠢到忽略了他們
14:44
Take for example this email電子郵件 I recieved收到
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舉個例子來說,我從一位加州的消防隊員
14:47
from a firefighter消防隊員 here in California加州.
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收到這封電子郵件
14:50
He says, "Fatality死亡事故 investigations調查 for firefighters消防員
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他說,“消防隊員的死亡調查
14:53
often經常 include包括 'We'我們 didn't think the fire was going to do that,'
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通常包括“我們不認為火勢會像這樣
14:58
even when all of the available可得到 information信息
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即使所有現有的消息
15:00
was there to make safe安全 decisions決定."
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都是安全的
15:02
This captain隊長 is going to use our findings發現 on the optimism樂觀 bias偏壓
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這位船長想使用我們在樂觀偏見上的研究結果
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to try to explain說明 to the firefighters消防員
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試著向消防隊員解釋
15:08
why they think the way they do,
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為什麼他們會認為他們做事的方法
15:10
to make them acutely急性 aware知道的 of this very optimistic樂觀 bias偏壓 in humans人類.
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會使得他們敏銳地意識到人類的樂觀偏見
15:18
So unrealistic不切實際 optimism樂觀 can lead to risky有風險 behavior行為,
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所以不切實際的樂觀會導致危險的行為
15:23
to financial金融 collapse坍方, to faulty不完善的 planning規劃.
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導致金融崩潰,導致計劃錯誤
15:26
The British英國的 government政府, for example,
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舉例來說,英國政府
15:28
has acknowledged承認 that the optimism樂觀 bias偏壓
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確認樂觀偏見
15:31
can make individuals個人 more likely容易
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使得人們更有可能
15:34
to underestimate低估 the costs成本 and durations持續時間 of projects項目.
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低估了計劃的成本及持續期間
15:38
So they have adjusted調整 the 2012 Olympic奧林匹克 budget預算
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所以他們調整了2012年奧林匹克的預算
15:43
for the optimism樂觀 bias偏壓.
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就是因為樂觀偏見
15:45
My friend朋友 who's誰是 getting得到 married已婚 in a few少數 weeks
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我有一個將在幾星期內結婚的朋友
15:47
has doneDONE the same相同 for his wedding婚禮 budget預算.
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也對結婚預算做了同樣的事
15:49
And by the way, when I asked him about his own擁有 likelihood可能性 of divorce離婚,
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順便一提的是,當我問他自己離婚的可能性時
15:52
he said he was quite相當 sure it was zero percent百分.
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他說他很確定是百分之零(完全不可能)
15:56
So what we would really like to do,
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所以我們真正想做的
15:58
is we would like to protect保護 ourselves我們自己 from the dangers危險 of optimism樂觀,
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是我們要保護自己免除樂觀危險
16:03
but at the same相同 time remain hopeful有希望,
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但同時保持深具希望
16:06
benefiting受益 from the many許多 fruits水果 of optimism樂觀.
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從樂觀的許多成果中獲益
16:09
And I believe there's a way for us to do that.
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我相信一定有條路讓我們這樣做
16:11
The key here really is knowledge知識.
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真正的關鍵是知識
16:14
We're not born天生 with an innate先天 understanding理解 of our biases偏見.
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我們不是生來就了解偏見
16:17
These have to be identified確定 by scientific科學 investigation調查.
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這些必需要透過科學調查來釐清
16:21
But the good news新聞 is that becoming變得 aware知道的 of the optimism樂觀 bias偏壓
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但是好消息是知道了樂觀偏見
16:25
does not shatter打碎 the illusion錯覺.
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並未粉碎幻想
16:27
It's like visual視覺 illusions幻想,
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它就像是視覺上的錯覺
16:28
in which哪一個 understanding理解 them does not make them go away.
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了解它們而非叫他們走
16:32
And this is good because it means手段
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這是很好的因為意思是
16:34
we should be able能夠 to strike罷工 a balance平衡,
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我們應該能夠找到折衷辦法
16:36
to come up with plans計劃 and rules規則
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想出計劃和規則
16:39
to protect保護 ourselves我們自己 from unrealistic不切實際 optimism樂觀,
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保護我們自己遠離不切實際的樂觀
16:42
but at the same相同 time remain hopeful有希望.
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但同時保持深具希望
16:45
I think this cartoon動畫片 portrays刻畫 it nicely很好.
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我認為這個卡通畫面很不錯
16:48
Because if you're one of these pessimistic悲觀 penguins企鵝 up there
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因為如果你是站在那邊的悲觀企鵝的一員
16:52
who just does not believe they can fly,
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就是不相信自己會飛
16:54
you certainly當然 never will.
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當然就永遠也不會飛
16:56
Because to make any kind of progress進展,
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因為任何的進展
16:58
we need to be able能夠 to imagine想像 a different不同 reality現實,
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都需要想像一個不同的現實
17:00
and then we need to believe that that reality現實 is possible可能.
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之後我們必需相信那個現實是可能的
17:04
But if you are an extreme極端 optimistic樂觀 penguin企鵝
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但如果你是個極端樂觀的企鵝
17:08
who just jumps跳躍 down blindly盲目地 hoping希望 for the best最好,
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只是盲目的往下跳希望成為最好的
17:10
you might威力 find yourself你自己 in a bit of a mess食堂 when you hit擊中 the ground地面.
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當撞到地面的時候,你會發現有點麻煩
17:15
But if you're an optimistic樂觀 penguin企鵝
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但如果你是個樂觀的企鵝
17:17
who believes相信 they can fly,
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相信自己可以飛
17:19
but then adjusts調整 a parachute降落傘 to your back
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但之後又調整背後的降落傘
17:22
just in case案件 things don't work out exactly究竟 as you had planned計劃,
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萬一事情不完全按照你的計劃走
17:25
you will soar翱翔 like an eagle,
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你也可能像隻鷹一樣的翱翔
17:26
even if you're just a penguin企鵝.
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即使你只是隻企鵝
17:29
Thank you.
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謝謝你
17:31
(Applause掌聲)
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(觀眾鼓掌)
Translated by Shin-Yuan Tzou
Reviewed by Chen-Han Hsiao

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tali Sharot - Cognitive neuroscientist
Tali Sharot studies why our brains are biased toward optimism.

Why you should listen

Optimism bias is the belief that the future will be better, much better, than the past or present. And most of us display this bias. Neuroscientist Tali Sharot wants to know why: What is it about our brains that makes us overestimate the positive? She explores the question in her book The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain

In the book (and a 2011 TIME magazine cover story), she reviewed findings from both social science and neuroscience that point to an interesting conclusion: "our brains aren't just stamped by the past. They are constantly being shaped by the future." In her own work, she's interested in how our natural optimism actually shapes what we remember, and her interesting range of papers encompasses behavioral research (how likely we are to misremember major events) as well as medical findings -- like searching for the places in the brain where optimism lives. Sharot is a faculty member of the Department of Cognitive, Perceptual and Brain Sciences at University College London.

 

More profile about the speaker
Tali Sharot | Speaker | TED.com