TED2014
Joi Ito: Want to innovate? Become a "now-ist"
伊藤穰一: 想要創新? 請成為「現在主義者」
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伊藤穰一向觀眾提問：「還記得網路發明以前的世界嗎?」、「還記得人們總是想要預測未來嗎?」在這個吸引人的演說中，麻省理工媒體實驗室的主管伊藤不談對未來的預測，但與我們分享一個全新的動力來源：快速地創造和不斷的進步，不須等待別人的首肯或證明你的想法是對的。這種由基層出發的創新，我們在許多有趣和充滿未來性的應用中都可以看到。這一切都從保持開放與「當下」對周遭事物的覺察開始。別做一個未來主義者，演講者建議我們：做一個「現在主義者」。
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
On March 10, 2011,
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在2011年的三月十日，
00:15
I was in Cambridge at the MIT Media Lab
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我人在美國麻省劍橋的MIT媒體實驗室，
00:18
meeting with faculty, students and staff,
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見了許多教授、學生與員工，
00:21
and we were trying to figure out whether
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我們想要知道
00:23
I should be the next director.
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我是否是下一任主任的適合人選。
00:25
That night, at midnight,
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那天的半夜，
00:28
a magnitude 9 earthquake
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強度高達九級的地震
00:29
hit off of the Pacific coast of Japan.
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重創了鄰近日本的太平洋沿岸，
00:32
My wife and family were in Japan,
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我的妻子和家人當時都在日本。
00:34
and as the news started to come in,
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當新聞開始湧入，
00:38
I was panicking.
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我感到非常恐慌。
00:39
I was looking at the news streams
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我一邊看著新聞快報，
00:41
and listening to the press conferences
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一邊聽著政府
00:44
of the government officials
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與東京電力公司
00:46
and the Tokyo Power Company,
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官方的記者會轉播。
00:47
and hearing about this explosion
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我知道某一個核電廠反應爐爆炸了，
00:50
at the nuclear reactors
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00:51
and this cloud of fallout
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而這些外洩的輻射雲
00:53
that was headed towards our house
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正朝著我們
00:55
which was only about 200 kilometers away.
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僅兩百公里以外的家襲來，
00:58
And the people on TV weren't telling us
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轉播單位全然沒有提供
01:00
anything that we wanted to hear.
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我們所希望得知的資訊。
01:02
I wanted to know what was going on with the reactor,
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我想知道反應爐的狀況，
01:04
what was going on with the radiation,
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以及輻射外洩的程度。
01:06
whether my family was in danger.
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我的家人是否身處危險之中?
01:08
So I did what instinctively felt like the right thing,
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所以我循著自己的直覺，
01:11
which was to go onto the Internet
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那是當時我認為我該做的:
01:13
and try to figure out
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上網搜尋。
01:14
if I could take matters into my own hands.
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我想知道是否有辦法靠自己找到解答。
01:17
On the Net, I found there were a lot of other people
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在網路上，我發現有許多人也和我一樣，
01:19
like me trying to figure out what was going on,
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想知道現在的情況，
01:21
and together we sort of loosely formed a group
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我們這群人就這樣形成了一個團隊，
01:23
and we called it Safecast,
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我們自稱為「安全人員」(Safecast)
01:25
and we decided we were going to try
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我們決定要嘗試去
01:26
to measure the radiation
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測量輻射量
01:28
and get the data out to everybody else,
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並把所得到的資料提供給社會大眾。
01:30
because it was clear that the government
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因為很明顯的政府
01:32
wasn't going to be doing this for us.
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並沒有想提供資訊給我們的意思。
01:35
Three years later,
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三年之後，
01:36
we have 16 million data points,
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我們有一千六百萬筆的資料，
01:39
we have designed our own Geiger counters
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我們設計了自己的
蓋革計數器 (測量輻射的儀器)，
蓋革計數器 (測量輻射的儀器)，
01:42
that you can download the designs
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你自行下載那些設計，
01:43
and plug it into the network.
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然後連上系統。
01:44
We have an app that shows you
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我們有自行開發的APP顯示
01:46
most of the radiation in Japan
and other parts of the world.
and other parts of the world.
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日本大部分地區
與世界其他地方的輻射指數。
與世界其他地方的輻射指數。
01:49
We are arguably one of the most successful
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我們可以說是最全球成功的
01:51
citizen science projects in the world,
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由公民參與的自然科學計畫之一，
01:53
and we have created
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我們也創造了
01:56
the largest open dataset of radiation measurements.
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最大的輻射測量的公開資料庫。
01:59
And the interesting thing here
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有趣的是，
02:02
is how did — (Applause) — Thank you.
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(鼓掌) 謝謝，
02:07
How did a bunch of amateurs
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是我們一群外行人，
02:09
who really didn't know what we were doing
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完全不懂自己在幹嘛，
02:11
somehow come together
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但能團結在一起，
02:13
and do what NGOs and the government
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做到那些非政府組織和政府單位，
02:16
were completely incapable of doing?
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完全做不到的事情。
02:18
And I would suggest that this has something to do
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我認為這必須歸功於
02:21
with the Internet. It's not a fluke.
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網路的力量。這不是僥倖，
02:23
It wasn't luck, and it wasn't because it was us.
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也不是幸運，也不是因為個人，
02:25
It helped that it was an event
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因為一個災難事件，
02:27
that pulled everybody together,
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讓我們連繫在一起沒錯，
02:29
but it was a new way of doing things
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但不一樣的是因為有網路，
02:30
that was enabled by the Internet
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讓我們有新的方法可以完成事情。
02:32
and a lot of the other things that were going on,
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還有許多事情也正在發生，
02:34
and I want to talk a little bit about
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我想談一下
02:36
what those new principles are.
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這些新的準則。
02:39
So remember before the Internet? (Laughter)
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還記得網路發明之前的生活嗎? (笑聲)
02:43
I call this B.I. Okay?
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我就稱之 B. I. (網路元年前)
02:45
So, in B.I., life was simple.
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所以在 B.I. 時，生活很簡單，
02:49
Things were Euclidian, Newtonian,
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事物在歐式空間，遵循著牛頓定律，
02:52
somewhat predictable.
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非常好預測。
02:53
People actually tried to predict the future,
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人們甚至嘗試預測未來，
02:55
even the economists.
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甚至經濟學家也是。
02:57
And then the Internet happened,
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但突然有了網路，
03:00
and the world became extremely complex,
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世界突然變得非常複雜、
03:02
extremely low-cost, extremely fast,
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非常低廉、非常快速。
03:05
and those Newtonian laws
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而那些我們奉為圭臬的
03:07
that we so dearly cherished
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牛頓定律，
03:09
turned out to be just local ordinances,
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只能解釋日常的規則，
03:11
and what we found was that in this
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但在這個不可預測的世界中
03:13
completely unpredictable world
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我們發現，
03:16
that most of the people who were surviving
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大部分的人都在
03:18
were working with sort of a different set of principles,
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用截然不同的定律準則在生活。
03:21
and I want to talk a little bit about that.
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這就是我想討論的。
03:24
Before the Internet, if you remember,
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在網路紀元之前，如果你記得的話，
03:25
when we tried to create services,
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當我們想要提供服務，
03:27
what you would do is you'd create
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你必須提供硬體、
03:28
the hardware layer and the
network layer and the software
network layer and the software
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系統，和軟體層，
03:30
and it would cost millions of dollars
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可能得花上好幾百萬。
03:32
to do anything that was substantial.
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才能做的基本服務。
03:35
So when it costs millions of dollars
to do something substantial,
to do something substantial,
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所以當要做任何事
都必須好幾百萬美元，
都必須好幾百萬美元，
03:37
what you would do is you'd get an MBA
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你會去讀個工商管理碩士、
03:39
who would write a plan
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寫個計畫書、
03:40
and get the money
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從創投公司
03:41
from V.C.s or big companies,
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或大公司找資金，
03:43
and then you'd hire the designers and the engineers,
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然後雇用設計師和工程師，
03:45
and they'd build the thing.
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來製造產品。
03:46
This is the Before Internet, B.I., innovation model.
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這是網路紀元之前，B.I 的創業模型。
03:51
What happened after the Internet was
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但有了網路之後，
03:53
the cost of innovation went down so much
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創新的代價變低許多，
03:55
because the cost of collaboration,
the cost of distribution,
the cost of distribution,
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因為合作與分配的成本、
03:57
the cost of communication, and Moore's Law
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通訊的成本，以及摩爾定律，
04:00
made it so that the cost of trying a new thing
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讓嘗試新事物的代價
04:03
became nearly zero,
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變得幾乎是零了。
04:04
and so you would have Google, Facebook, Yahoo,
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所以才會有谷歌、臉書、雅虎等公司，
04:06
students that didn't have permission —
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由那些根本沒按照規矩來的學生創立，
04:08
permissionless innovation —
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沒人同意他們可以創新——
04:10
didn't have permission, didn't have PowerPoints,
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不用任何人首肯，不需要別人講解，
04:11
they just built the thing,
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他們只是一股腦的做出東西來，
04:13
then they raised the money,
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賺到一些錢，
04:15
and then they sort of figured out a business plan
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然後從中摸索出商業經營的方法，
04:17
and maybe later on they hired some MBAs.
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或許之後再雇用一些工商管理碩士。
04:19
So the Internet caused innovation,
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所以網路的產生
04:22
at least in software and services,
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讓在軟體服務的創新，
04:23
to go from an MBA-driven innovation model
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從以往由MBA主導的創業模式，
04:26
to a designer-engineer-driven innovation model,
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變成由設計師與工程師主導。
04:30
and it pushed innovation to the edges,
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並把創新帶到了一個新的境界。
04:32
to the dorm rooms, to the startups,
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從學校宿舍到新創公司，
04:33
away from the large institutions,
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不需要大企業的介入。
04:35
the stodgy old institutions that had the power
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那些無聊老舊的大企業，曾經擁有金錢，
04:37
and the money and the authority.
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能力和權力，現在不然。
04:39
And we all know this. We all know
this happened on the Internet.
this happened on the Internet.
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我都知道這些網路公司的故事。
04:42
It turns out it's happening in other things, too.
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但同樣的事情，這也發生在其他地方。
04:44
Let me give you some examples.
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讓我舉個例子，
04:48
So at the Media Lab, we don't just do hardware.
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在媒體實驗室，我們不只有做硬體，
04:50
We do all kinds of things.
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我們從事各方面的研發。
04:51
We do biology, we do hardware,
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我們做生物、硬體，
04:53
and Nicholas Negroponte
famously said, "Demo or die,"
famously said, "Demo or die,"
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尼葛洛龐帝教授的名言所說
「不展示成果就死」，
「不展示成果就死」，
04:57
as opposed to "Publish or perish,"
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這是相對於傳統學術領域
的格言「不出版就死」。
的格言「不出版就死」。
04:59
which was the traditional academic way of thinking.
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05:01
And he often said, the demo only has to work once,
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他也常說，展示的成果
只需要成功一次即可。
只需要成功一次即可。
05:04
because the primary mode of us impacting the world
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因為我們做出的初始模型
可以激發那些大公司
可以激發那些大公司
05:07
was through large companies
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進而影響這個世界，創造出
05:09
being inspired by us
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像Kindle電子閱讀器和
05:10
and creating products like
the Kindle or Lego Mindstorms.
the Kindle or Lego Mindstorms.
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樂高Mindstorms機器人等產品。
05:14
But today, with the ability
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但今日，我們有能力
05:16
to deploy things into the real world at such low cost,
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以非常低廉的成本創造出產品。
05:18
I'm changing the motto now,
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我想要改寫這個格言，
05:20
and this is the official public statement.
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而且這是正式的官方聲明，
05:22
I'm officially saying, "Deploy or die."
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我要說：「不創造產品就死」。
05:24
You have to get the stuff into the real world
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你必須把東西做出來讓這世界看到，
05:27
for it to really count,
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那才算數。
05:28
and sometimes it will be large companies,
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有時會是由大公司做出，
05:30
and Nicholas can talk about satellites.
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然後另一位講者尼葛洛龐帝教授
就能講講衛星的事。
就能講講衛星的事。
05:32
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
05:33
Thank you.
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謝謝
05:34
But we should be getting out there ourselves
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但我們是可以靠自己達成的，
05:36
and not depending on large
institutions to do it for us.
institutions to do it for us.
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不需要靠大企業的幫助。
05:40
So last year, we sent a bunch
of students to Shenzhen,
of students to Shenzhen,
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去年，我們送了一群學生去深圳
05:42
and they sat on the factory floors
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他們與當地的創業家
一起坐在工廠的地板
一起坐在工廠的地板
05:44
with the innovators in Shenzhen, and it was amazing.
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真是很棒的經驗。
05:46
What was happening there
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在那裏，
05:48
was you would have these manufacturing devices,
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有生產製造的儀器，
05:50
and they weren't making prototypes or PowerPoints.
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他們不是在做
初始模型或投影片簡報，
初始模型或投影片簡報，
05:52
They were fiddling with the manufacturing equipment
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他們在微調那些製造的器材，
05:55
and innovating right on the
manufacturing equipment.
manufacturing equipment.
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直接在製造的器材上實現創新。
05:58
The factory was in the designer,
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工廠由那些設計師操控，
06:00
and the designer was literally in the factory.
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設計師就在工廠之中。
06:02
And so what you would do is,
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所以你可以
06:04
you'd go down to the stalls
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走到小賣場，
06:05
and you would see these cell phones.
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馬上看到完成的手機。
06:07
So instead of starting little websites
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所以不像在矽谷Palo Alto的孩子，
06:10
like the kids in Palo Alto do,
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忙著架設新的網站。
06:11
the kids in Shenzhen make new cell phones.
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在深圳地孩子在製作新的手機，
06:14
They make new cell phones like kids in Palo Alto
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他們研發新手機就像矽谷的孩子
06:17
make websites,
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造新網站一樣。
06:18
and so there's a rainforest
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所以在那手機的創新之蓬勃，
06:20
of innovation going on in the cell phone.
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有如熱帶雨林。
06:22
What they do is, they make a cell phone,
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他們就是製造手機，
06:23
go down to the stall, they sell some,
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到小賣場賣一些手機。
06:25
they look at the other kids' stuff, go up,
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再看看別人的產品，調整，
06:28
make a couple thousand more, go down.
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再做一千多個，拿去賣。
06:30
Doesn't this sound like a software thing?
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這跟軟體業不是很像嗎?
06:32
It sounds like agile software development,
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這很像是一個很敏捷的軟體開發模式，
06:34
A/B testing and iteration,
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測試，重新來過，
06:37
and what we thought you could only do with software
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當你以為這只能適用於軟體，
06:39
kids in Shenzhen are doing this in hardware.
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深圳的孩子已經將他應用在硬體了。
06:41
My next fellow, I hope, is going to be
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我實驗室下一個研究人員，我希望
06:43
one of these innovators from Shenzhen.
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就是來自那些深圳的研發人員之一。
06:44
And so what you see is
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從剛剛的例子，
06:46
that is pushing innovation to the edges.
180
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我們看到把研發推到一個新的境界。
06:48
We talk about 3D printers and stuff like that,
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我們討論3D列印等新技術，
06:50
and that's great, but this is Limor.
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那很棒，但這是Limor
06:52
She is one of our favorite graduates,
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她是我們最好的研究生之一，
06:54
and she is standing in front of a Samsung
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她正站在一個三星泰科
06:56
Techwin Pick and Place Machine.
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自動電路板設計機
06:58
This thing can put 23,000 components per hour
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這玩意能在一小時內把2萬3千的零組件
07:02
onto an electronics board.
187
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焊接到電路板上。
07:04
This is a factory in a box.
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這是盒裝的工廠，
07:06
So what used to take a factory full of workers
189
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以往需要滿工廠的工人
07:08
working by hand
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用手工組裝完成的工作，
07:09
in this little box in New York,
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她只需要這個位於紐約的小盒子，
07:11
she's able to have effectively —
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就可輕易完成。
07:12
She doesn't actually have to go to Shenzhen
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她不需要去到深圳，
07:14
to do this manufacturing.
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就可以生產產品。
07:15
She can buy this box and she can manufacture it.
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她只要買下這個盒子就可以生產，
07:17
So manufacturing, the cost of innovation,
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所以生產、創新的成本、
07:19
the cost of prototyping, distribution,
manufacturing, hardware,
manufacturing, hardware,
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製造初始模型的成本、分配、製造、硬體，
07:22
is getting so low
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都變得非常低廉。
07:24
that innovation is being pushed to the edges
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創新已經被推往這個新的境界，
07:26
and students and startups are being able to build it.
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學生與新創公司就可以自行製造。
07:28
This is a recent thing, but this will happen
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這東西還很新，但一定會變成主流，
07:30
and this will change
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也會產生許多改變，
07:32
just like it did with software.
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就像網路改變了軟體業。
07:34
Sorona is a DuPont process
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Sorona是杜邦發展出的一個程序，
07:37
that uses a genetically engineered microbe
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使用基因工程改造的微生物，
07:40
to turn corn sugar into polyester.
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將玉米轉製成聚酯纖維，
07:44
It's 30 percent more efficient
than the fossil fuel method,
than the fossil fuel method,
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這製程的效率比
化石燃料方法增進了30%，
化石燃料方法增進了30%，
07:47
and it's much better for the environment.
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且對環境更為友善。
07:50
Genetic engineering and bioengineering
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基因工程和生物工程，
07:52
are creating a whole bunch
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創造出了許多
07:53
of great new opportunities
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很好的嶄新機會。
07:55
for chemistry, for computation, for memory.
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在化學、計算、記憶體上都有應用。
07:58
We will probably be doing a lot,
obviously doing health things,
obviously doing health things,
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應用層面很廣，很明顯地在醫學方面也是，
08:00
but we will probably be growing chairs
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但或許我們也可以應用在生產
08:02
and buildings soon.
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與製造方面。
08:03
The problem is, Sorona costs
about 400 million dollars
about 400 million dollars
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可是問題是，Sorona的研發
投入了四億美金，
投入了四億美金，
08:07
and took seven years to build.
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耗費了七年才完成。
08:09
It kind of reminds you of the old mainframe days.
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這似乎讓你想起古早的
大型主機那個年代，
大型主機那個年代，
08:12
The thing is, the cost of innovation
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但事實上，在生物工程領域，
08:14
in bioengineering is also going down.
220
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創新的成品也在降低中。
08:16
This is desktop gene sequencer.
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這是一個桌上型的基因測序儀，
08:18
It used to cost millions and millions
of dollars to sequence genes.
of dollars to sequence genes.
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曾經，要定序基因需要
花上好幾百萬的資金。
花上好幾百萬的資金。
08:21
Now you can do it on a desktop like this,
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現在你只需要一個桌機，
08:23
and kids can do this in dorm rooms.
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孩子們在學校宿舍就可以做。
08:25
This is Gen9 gene assembler,
225
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這是一個名叫"Gen9"的基因組合器，
08:28
and so right now when you try to print a gene,
226
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現在當你試圖合成一個基因時，
08:30
what you do is somebody in a factory
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某個在工廠的人，
08:31
with pipettes puts the thing together by hand,
228
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會以手動的方式使用吸量管將材料混合，
08:33
you have one error per 100 base pairs,
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在一百個鹼基對中就會出現一個錯誤，
08:35
and it takes a long time and costs a lot of money.
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而且需要投注很長的時間以及可觀的金錢。
08:38
This new device
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這個嶄新的儀器，
08:39
assembles genes on a chip,
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在一個晶片上組裝基因，
08:41
and instead of one error per 100 base pairs,
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不會在一百個鹼基對中就出現一個錯誤，
08:43
it's one error per 10,000 base pairs.
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而是在一萬個鹼基對中才會有一個錯誤。
08:45
In this lab, we will have the world's capacity
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在這個實驗室裡，我們將具有全世界
08:48
of gene printing within a year,
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一年的基因合成容量，
08:50
200 million base pairs a year.
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一年兩億鹼基對。
08:53
This is kind of like when we went
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這有點類似我們從手工製的
08:55
from transistor radios wrapped by hand
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電晶體收音機，
08:58
to the Pentium.
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到英特爾的奔騰處理器。
08:59
This is going to become the
Pentium of bioengineering,
Pentium of bioengineering,
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這將會成為生物工程界的奔騰處理器。
09:01
pushing bioengineering into the hands
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將生物工程帶到
09:03
of dorm rooms and startup companies.
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學校宿舍與新創公司伸手可及之處。
09:06
So it's happening in software and in hardware
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所以這個現象我們在軟體、硬體，
09:09
and bioengineering,
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也在生物工程領域發生。
09:10
and so this is a fundamental new
way of thinking about innovation.
way of thinking about innovation.
246
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3281
所以當我們想到創新，
這會是一個新的基本方法。
這會是一個新的基本方法。
09:13
It's a bottom-up innovation, it's democratic,
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由基層出發，人人都有機會，
09:16
it's chaotic, it's hard to control.
248
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會很混亂，很難控制。
09:18
It's not bad, but it's very different,
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這並不是件壞事，但和以往截然不同。
09:20
and I think that the traditional rules that we have
250
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1967
我認為過往適用於大型機構的
09:22
for institutions don't work anymore,
251
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2072
的原則將不再適用。
09:24
and most of us here
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現在大部分的人將會在不同的
09:26
operate with a different set of principles.
253
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原則下運作。
09:29
One of my favorite principles is the power of pull,
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《拉力，讓好事更靠近》這本書中，
我最喜歡的原則
我最喜歡的原則
09:32
which is the idea of pulling resources
255
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是它提出從網路中
09:34
from the network as you need them
256
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1766
提取出(Pull)你所需的資源的概念。
09:36
rather than stocking them in the center
257
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這樣一來我們不須處理所有雜務，
09:38
and controlling everything.
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不須將資源集中存放。
09:39
So in the case of the Safecast story,
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以我們的安全人員(Safecast)的故事為例，
09:42
I didn't know anything when
the earthquake happened,
the earthquake happened,
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在地震發生時我毫無相關的知識，
09:44
but I was able to find Sean
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但我找到了尚恩，
09:45
who was the hackerspace community organizer,
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尚恩是駭客空間社群的管理者，
09:48
and Peter, the analog hardware hacker
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1786
還有彼得，是類比硬體的駭客，
09:49
who made our first Geiger counter,
264
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製造了我們第一個蓋格計數器。
09:51
and Dan, who built the Three Mile Island
265
579688
1998
還有丹，在三浬島核災之後，
09:53
monitoring system after the
Three Mile Island meltdown.
Three Mile Island meltdown.
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3334
製造了三浬島監視系統。
09:57
And these people I wouldn't have been able to find
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這些我在事件發生之前
09:59
beforehand and probably were better
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根本找不到的人才，
10:01
that I found them just in time from the network.
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但我卻在網路上即刻的
網羅到他們，這樣或許更好。
網羅到他們，這樣或許更好。
10:04
I'm a three-time college dropout,
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我本身從大學輟學三次，
10:06
so learning over education
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所以我非常感同身受，
10:08
is very near and dear to my heart,
272
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學習比教育更重要。
10:09
but to me, education is what people do to you
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對我來說，教育是別人給予你的，
10:12
and learning is what you do to yourself.
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但學習是你為自己所做的。
10:15
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
10:19
And it feels like, and I'm biased,
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我可能有點主觀，但那感覺就好像，
10:20
it feels like they're trying to make you memorize
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他們總要你記下所有百科全書的內容
10:23
the whole encyclopedia before
they let you go out and play,
they let you go out and play,
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3114
才能讓你自己摸索跟玩樂。
10:26
and to me, I've got Wikipedia on my cell phone,
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4097
對我來說，我手機裡就有維基百科，
10:30
and it feels like they assume
280
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1703
但感覺它們預設
10:32
you're going to be on top of some mountain
281
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1787
你在某山峰的頂端，
10:34
all by yourself with a number 2 pencil
282
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2461
只有你自己和一隻二號鉛筆，
10:36
trying to figure out what to do
283
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1383
然後嘗試解決問題。
10:38
when in fact you're always going to be connected,
284
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2116
但事實上你永遠都會有網路連線。
10:40
you're always going to have friends,
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你也永遠都會有朋友幫忙。
10:42
and you can pull Wikipedia
up whenever you need it,
up whenever you need it,
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你可以在需要的時候
隨時查詢維基百科。
隨時查詢維基百科。
10:44
and what you need to learn is how to learn.
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你所需要學習的就是「如何去學習」。
10:47
In the case of Safecast, a bunch of amateurs
288
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2644
在安全人員的例子，三年前
10:50
when we started three years ago,
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由一群外行人所組成。
10:51
I would argue that we probably as a group
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2508
現在我敢說我們的團隊
比任何其他組織，
比任何其他組織，
10:54
know more than any other organization
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2416
更了解如何收集跟
10:56
about how to collect data and publish data
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3209
發佈數據和
10:59
and do citizen science.
293
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做公民的科學研究。
11:02
Compass over maps.
294
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1120
羅盤比地圖更有用。
11:03
So this one, the idea is that the cost of writing a plan
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3725
這個概念是因為撰寫計畫，
11:07
or mapping something is getting so expensive
296
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3103
和建構藍圖是非常高成本的，
11:10
and it's not very accurate or useful.
297
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而且並不是非常精確或實用。
11:13
So in the Safecast story, we
knew we needed to collect data,
knew we needed to collect data,
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在安全人員的故事中，我們知道必須收集數據。
11:16
we knew we wanted to publish the data,
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我們知道想要公布數據。
11:19
and instead of trying to come up with the exact plan,
300
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我們並沒有嘗試提出任何具體方案，
11:22
we first said, oh, let's get Geiger counters.
301
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2408
我們先想：喔! 我們得有一些蓋格計數器。
11:24
Oh, they've run out.
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1766
喔! 蓋格計數器不夠用了。
11:26
Let's build them. There aren't enough sensors.
303
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那我們來製造吧。探測器不夠，
11:28
Okay, then we can make a mobile Geiger counter.
304
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2227
那我們可以做一些行動的蓋格計數器，
11:30
We can drive around. We can get volunteers.
305
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2047
我們有志願者可以載運那些計數器。
11:32
We don't have enough money. Let's Kickstarter it.
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我們資金不夠，那我們到
資金籌募網站Kickstarter籌錢。
資金籌募網站Kickstarter籌錢。
11:34
We could not have planned this whole thing,
307
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1991
我們當時並沒有全盤規劃，
11:36
but by having a very strong compass,
308
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1744
但我們有一個非常強的羅盤指引方向。
11:38
we eventually got to where we were going,
309
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1435
我們最終達到了我們的目標。
11:39
and to me it's very similar to
agile software development,
agile software development,
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對我來說，這和敏捷軟體開發非常類似。
11:42
but this idea of compasses is very important.
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但這羅盤的概念非常重要。
11:45
So I think the good news is
312
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1941
所以我認為好消息是
11:47
that even though the world is extremely complex,
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3501
雖然現今世界非常的複雜，
11:50
what you need to do is very simple.
314
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但你所需做的卻非常簡單。
11:53
I think it's about stopping this notion
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我認為必須停止認為:
11:56
that you need to plan everything,
316
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1572
你必須計畫周全，
11:57
you need to stock everything,
317
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你必須有足夠的庫存，
11:58
and you need to be so prepared,
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你需要做好足夠的準備。
12:00
and focus on being connected,
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你所需的是專注在彼此連結，
12:03
always learning,
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1851
持續學習，
12:04
fully aware,
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1861
保持覺察，
12:06
and super present.
322
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1780
和活在當下。
12:08
So I don't like the word "futurist."
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我不喜歡「未來主義者」這字眼，
12:11
I think we should be now-ists,
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我認為我們必須成為「現在」主義者，
12:17
like we are right now.
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就像我們現在這樣。
12:19
Thank you.
326
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謝謝。
12:21
(Applause)
327
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3979
(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Joi Ito - Relentless mindJoi Ito is the director of the MIT Media Lab.
Why you should listen
Joichi "Joi" Ito is one of those names threaded through the history of the Internet. From his days kickstarting Internet culture in Japan at Digital Garage, his restless curiosity led him to be an early-stage investor in Twitter, Six Apart, Wikia, Flickr, Last.fm, Kickstarter and other Internet companies, and to serve on countless boards and advisory committees around digital culture and Internet freedom.
He leads the legendary MIT Media Lab as it heads toward its third decade, and is working on a book with Jeff Howe about nine principles for navigating whatever the changing culture throws at us next. As he told Wired, "The amount of money and the amount of permission that you need to create an idea has decreased dramatically." So: aim for resilience, not strength; seek risk, not safety. The book is meant to be a compass for a world without maps.
Joi Ito | Speaker | TED.com