ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Johnson - Writer
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience.

Why you should listen

Steven Johnson is a leading light of today's interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to innovation. His writings have influenced everything from cutting-edge ideas in urban planning to the battle against 21st-century terrorism. Johnson was chosen by Prospect magazine as one of the top ten brains of the digital future, and The Wall Street Journal calls him "one of the most persuasive advocates for the role of collaboration in innovation."

Johnson's work on the history of innovation inspired the Emmy-nominated six-part series on PBS, "How We Got To Now with Steven Johnson," which aired in the fall of 2014. The book version of How We Got To Now was a finalist for the PEN/E.O. Wilson Literary Science Writing Award. His new book, Wonderland: How Play Made the Modern World, revolves around the creative power of play and delight: ideas and innovations that set into motion many momentous changes in science, technology, politics and society. 

Johnson is also the author of the bestselling Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation, one of his many books celebrating progress and innovation. Others include The Invention of Air and The Ghost Map. Everything Bad Is Good For You, one of the most discussed books of 2005, argued that the increasing complexity of modern media is training us to think in more complex ways. Emergence and Future Perfect explore the power of bottom-up intelligence in both nature and contemporary society.

An innovator himself, Johnson has co-created three influential sites: the pioneering online magazine FEED, the Webby-Award-winning community site, Plastic.com, and the hyperlocal media site outside.in, which was acquired by AOL in 2011.

Johnson is a regular contributor to WIRED magazine, as well as the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and many other periodicals. He has appeared on many high-profile television programs, including "The Charlie Rose Show," "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer."


More profile about the speaker
Steven Johnson | Speaker | TED.com
TED2003

Steven Johnson: The Web as a city

史帝芬·強生:網路就像一個都市

Filmed:
395,928 views

史帝芬·強生認為網路就像一個都市:許多人一起建造、沒有人有完全的掌控能力,人們的關係錯綜複雜,但卻可以各自獨立運作;當一處有災難發生時,其他地方的人們還是可以照樣過自己的日子。
- Writer
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:18
I want to take you back basically基本上 to my hometown家鄉,
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我想先跟各位介紹我的家鄉,
00:21
and to a picture圖片 of my hometown家鄉 of the week
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這是我的家鄉在我的新書「崛起」
00:23
that "Emergence緊急情況" came來了 out.
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發行後一個星期的照片,
00:25
And it's a picture圖片 we've我們已經 seen看到 several一些 times.
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這張照片大家都看過很多次了,
00:33
Basically基本上, "Emergence緊急情況" was published發表 on 9/11.
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「崛起」其實就是在9·11那天發行。
00:36
I live生活 right there in the West西 Village,
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我當時就住在西村,
00:41
so the plume was luckily blowing west西, away from us.
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那時的煙霧很幸運地往西邊吹,沒有擴散到我們這裡。
00:46
We had a two-and-a-half-day-old兩個和一個半日齡 baby寶寶 in the house that was ours我們的 --
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那時我們有一個二天半大的嬰兒在家裡--
00:53
we hadn't有沒有 taken採取 it from somebody else其他.
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那嬰兒可不是偷來的...
00:55
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
00:57
And one of the thoughts思念 that I had dealing交易 with these two separate分離 emergencesemergences
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我那時手上正忙著處理書和嬰兒這二件燙手山芋,
01:04
of a book and a baby寶寶, and having this event事件 happen發生 so close --
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結果附近又發生了這件大事,
01:08
that my first thought, when I was still kind of in the apartment公寓 looking out at it all
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我站在公寓裡看著外面發生的一切,
01:12
or walking步行 out on the street and looking out on it just in front面前 of our building建造,
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有時也走上街去看看我們大樓前發生的事,
01:15
was that I'd made製作 a terrible可怕 miscalculation失算 in the book that I'd just written書面.
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我第一個想到的事是我剛寫好的書裡有一個嚴重的錯誤。
01:20
Because so much of that book was a celebration慶典 of the power功率
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那本書大部分的內容都是在誇耀人口密集都市的力量、
01:24
and creative創作的 potential潛在 of density密度, of largely大部分 urban城市的 density密度,
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大都市的創造力、
01:28
of connecting people and putting them together一起 in one place地點,
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都市可以把人都聚集且連結在一起、
01:31
and putting them on sidewalks人行道 together一起 and having them share分享 ideas思路
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人們可以聚在馬路邊分享彼此的看法、
01:34
and share分享 physical物理 space空間 together一起.
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許多人可以共同享有一個都市空間等。
01:36
And it seemed似乎 to me looking at that -- that tower burning燃燒 and then falling落下,
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而當我看著那棟大樓燃燒起來,然後倒下,
01:39
those towers burning燃燒 and falling落下 -- that in fact事實, one of the lessons教訓
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又有大樓燃燒然後倒下,我突然驚覺這件事的意義是:
01:41
here was that density密度 kills殺死.
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都市人口密度太高反而是場災難。
01:43
And that of all the technologies技術 that were exploited利用
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而歹徒為造成這場災難
01:46
to make that carnage大屠殺 come into being存在,
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所使用的科技技術,
01:51
probably大概 the single group of technologies技術 that cost成本 the most lives生活
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可能只是讓這五萬人在這二棟超過110層樓高
01:57
were those that enable啟用 50,000 people to live生活 in two buildings房屋
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的大樓裡上班所需要用到的科技
02:01
110 stories故事 above以上 the ground地面.
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的一小部分。
02:03
If they hadn't有沒有 been crowded --
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如果人口不是那麼密集--
02:05
you compare比較 the loss失利 of life at the Pentagon五角大樓 to the Twin雙胞胎 Towers,
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看看五角大廈的傷亡就知道,
02:08
and you can see that very powerfully有力.
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雙子星大樓的人員傷亡是很嚴重的。
02:10
And so I started開始 to think, well, you know, density密度, density密度 --
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所以我開始想,嗯,人口密度...人口密度...
02:13
I'm not sure if, you know, this was the right call.
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我開始不能確定這是不是正確的想法,
02:17
And I kind of ruminated沉思 on that for a couple一對 of days.
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所以我那幾天反覆地想這個問題。
02:20
And then about two days later後來, the wind started開始 to change更改 a little bit,
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大約二天之後,風向有點改變了,
02:24
and you could sense that the air空氣 was not healthy健康.
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大家都知道那時的空氣很污濁,有害健康,
02:27
And so even though雖然 there were no cars汽車 still in the West西 Village
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所以即使那時我們所住的西村還是禁止汽車通行,
02:31
where we lived生活, my wife妻子 sent發送 me out to buy購買 a, you know,
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我太太還是派我出去,
02:34
a large air空氣 filter過濾 at the Bed Bath and Beyond,
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要我去電器行買一台大型的空氣濾淨器,
02:38
which哪一個 was located位於 about 20 blocks away, north.
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那家電器行在我們家北邊20個街區之外,
02:41
And so I went out.
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所以我就去了。
02:43
And obviously明顯 I'm physically物理 a very strong強大 person, as you can tell -- (Laughter笑聲) --
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你可以看得出來我的身體還滿結實的,
02:47
so I wasn't worried擔心 about carrying攜帶 this thing 20 blocks.
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所以我一點也不擔心要搬著那台機器走過20個街區。
02:50
And I walked out, and this really miraculous神奇 thing happened發生 to me
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就在我走在街上,要去買空氣濾淨器時,
02:54
as I was walking步行 north to buy購買 this air空氣 filter過濾,
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發生了一件很奇妙的事情,
02:57
which哪一個 was that the streets街道 were completely全然 alive with people.
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我發現街上的人們全都朝氣蓬勃,
03:02
There was an incredible難以置信 -- it was, you know, a beautiful美麗 day,
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真的很奇妙,那天天氣很好,
03:05
as it was for about a week after,
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911才發生大約一個星期,
03:07
and the West西 Village had never seemed似乎 more lively活潑.
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西村的人卻表現得如此朝氣蓬勃。
03:10
I walked up along沿 Hudson哈德森 Street --
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我走向哈德森街,
03:12
where Jane Jacobs雅各布斯 had lived生活 and written書面 her great book
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珍·賈古柏曾住在那兒,還寫了一本很棒的書,
03:14
that so influenced影響 what I was writing寫作 in "Emergence緊急情況" --
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那本書對我那時正在寫的「崛起」有很大的影響;
03:16
past過去 the White白色 Horse Tavern酒館,
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接著我走過白馬酒館,
03:18
that great old bar酒吧 where Dylan迪倫 Thomas托馬斯 drank himself他自己 to death死亡,
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迪倫.湯瑪士就在這間很棒的老酒館裡把自己喝掛了;
03:21
and the Bleecker布利克 Street playground操場 was filled填充 with kids孩子.
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還有一堆小孩聚集在布力克街的遊樂場裡。
03:24
And all the people who lived生活 in the neighborhood鄰里,
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這些住在附近的人們,
03:26
who owned擁有的 restaurants餐館 and bars酒吧 in the neighborhood鄰里,
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他們在附近開了餐廳或是經營小酒館,
03:28
were all out there -- had them all open打開.
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全都開始營業了。
03:30
People were out.
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人們全都走出來了,
03:32
There were no cars汽車, so it seemed似乎 even better, in some ways方法.
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街上少了車子,看起來又更好了,
03:34
And it was a beautiful美麗 urban城市的 day,
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真是美好的都市生活,
03:37
and the incredible難以置信 thing about it was that the city was working加工.
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最不可思議的是整個城市又開始運作了,
03:41
The city was there.
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完全沒變。
03:43
All the things that make a great city successful成功
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所有讓大都市成功的因素、
03:45
and all the things that make a great city stimulating刺激 --
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所有讓大都市活潑起來的事情,
03:47
they were all on display顯示 there on those streets街道.
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全都在這些街區上演起來。
03:49
And I thought, well, this is the power功率 of a city.
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我想,嗯,這就是都市的力量。
03:53
I mean, the power功率 of the city --
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我是說,都市的力量--
03:55
we talked about cities城市 as being存在 centralized集中 in space空間,
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我們認為都市就是一個集中的地區,
03:57
but what makes品牌 them so strong強大 most of the time
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但大多數時候,真正讓都市茁壯起來的,
03:59
is they're decentralized分散 in function功能.
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反而是各個功能的分散處理。
04:01
They don't have a center中央 executive行政人員 branch that you can take out
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在都市裡,沒有一個類似中央指揮所的地方,
04:03
and cause原因 the whole整個 thing to fail失敗.
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你只要摧毁這個地方整個都市就垮了;
04:05
If they did, it probably大概 was right there at Ground地面 Zero.
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如果真的有這個地方,或許就在雙子星大樓吧,
04:08
I mean, you know, the emergency bunker掩體 was right there,
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因為緊急避難所就設在那裡,
04:10
was destroyed銷毀 by the attacks攻擊,
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但雙子星大樓被摧毁了,
04:12
and obviously明顯 the damage損傷 doneDONE to the building建造 and the lives生活.
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不只樓塌了,人員也傷亡慘重。
04:14
But nonetheless儘管如此,, just 20 blocks north, two days later後來,
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但是,就在二天後,在雙子星大樓北邊20個街區的地方,
04:18
the city had never looked看著 more alive.
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整個都市又活起來了。
04:21
If you'd gone走了 into the minds頭腦 of the people,
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如果你窺探人們的心思,
04:23
well, you would have seen看到 a lot of trauma外傷,
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你可能會看到很多創傷,
04:25
and you would have seen看到 a lot of heartache心痛,
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可能會發現很多心痛的痕跡,
04:27
and you would have seen看到 a lot of things that would take a long time to recover恢復.
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還有很多是需要花上長時間才能復原的傷口。
04:30
But the system系統 itself本身 of this city was thriving.
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但是整個都市體系又恢復了朝氣,
04:33
So I took heart in seeing眼看 that.
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所以我認真地用心思考這件事。
04:36
So I wanted to talk a little bit about the reasons原因 why that works作品 so well,
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我要來談談為什麼都市可以運作得這麼好,
04:42
and how some of those reasons原因 kind of map地圖
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以及這背後的原因又可以怎麼樣
04:44
on to where the Web捲筒紙 is going right now.
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和現在流行的網路扯上關係。
04:47
The question that I found發現 myself asking to people
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當我後來在談我所寫的書、
04:49
when I was talking about the book afterwards之後 is --
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當我們談及緊急應變行為
04:51
when you've talked about emergent應急 behavior行為,
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以及集體智慧時,
04:53
when you've talked about collective集體 intelligence情報,
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要引起人們注意最好的方法
04:55
the best最好 way to get people to kind of wrap their heads around that
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就是問他們:
04:57
is to ask, who builds建立 a neighborhood鄰里?
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「是誰建立了社區?」
05:00
Who decides決定 that Soho蘇荷 should have this personality個性
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「是誰決定蘇活區就要長得這樣?
05:03
and that the Latin拉丁 Quarter25美分硬幣 should have this personality個性?
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又是誰決定拉丁區要長成這樣?」
05:05
Well, there are some kind of executive行政人員 decisions決定,
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當然,這背後一定有些是大老闆的決定,
05:07
but mostly大多 the answer回答 is -- everybody每個人 and nobody沒有人.
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但是真正的決策者應該每一個人,或是沒有任何人。
05:09
Everybody每個人 contributes有助於 a little bit.
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每個人都貢獻了一點,
05:11
No single person is really the ultimate最終 actor演員
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但沒有任何一個人可以決定
05:15
behind背後 the personality個性 of a neighborhood鄰里.
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那個社區的個性。
05:17
Same相同 thing to the question of, who was keeping保持 the streets街道 alive
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同樣的問題是:「是誰讓我們的社區
05:20
post-9/11 in my neighborhood鄰里?
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在911之後又重新恢復運作?」
05:22
Well, it was the whole整個 city.
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答案是:整個都市居民。
05:24
The whole整個 system系統 kind of working加工 on it,
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整個都市體系都運作了起來,
05:26
and everybody每個人 contributing貢獻 a small little part部分.
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每個人都貢獻了自己的那一小部分。
05:28
And this is increasingly日益 what we're starting開始 to see on the Web捲筒紙
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從這個方向來看網路,
05:31
in a bunch of interesting有趣 ways方法 --
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你也會看到很多有趣的現象,
05:33
most of which哪一個 weren't around, actually其實,
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但在我寫「崛起」這本書和它發行期間,
05:35
except in very experimental試驗 things,
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大部分的現象還不存在,
05:37
when I was writing寫作 "Emergence緊急情況" and when the book came來了 out.
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除非是一些具有實驗性質的測試。
05:39
So it's been a very optimistic樂觀 time, I think,
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我認為那時一切都很樂觀,
05:41
and I want to just talk about a few少數 of those things.
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我想來談談幾個樂觀的事實。
05:43
I think that there is effectively有效 a new kind of model模型 of interactivity互動
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我認為目前有一個新型的互動模式
05:47
that's starting開始 to emerge出現 online線上 right now.
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正在網路上興起,
05:49
And the old one looked看著 like this.
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舊的是長這個樣子--
05:54
This is not the future未來 King國王 of England英國, although雖然 it looks容貌 like it.
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這不是未來的英國國王,雖然看起來有點像,
05:58
It's some guy, it's a GeoCities地球村 homepage主頁 of some guy that I found發現 online線上
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那只是我在GeoCities網頁上找到的某個傢伙,
06:01
who's誰是 interested有興趣, if you look at the bottom底部, in soccer足球 and Jesus耶穌
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他還滿有趣的,看看這下面:我愛足球、耶穌、
06:04
and Garth加思 Brooks布魯克斯 and Clint克林特 Beckham貝克漢姆 and "my hometown家鄉" -- those are his links鏈接.
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葛斯.布魯克、克林.貝克漢和我的家鄉--下面是他的連結。
06:07
But nothing really says
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但這個模式
06:09
this model模型 of interactivity互動 -- which哪一個 was so exciting扣人心弦 and captures捕獲 the real真實,
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一點也沒有刺激或真實的互動成份,
06:13
the Web捲筒紙 Zeitgeist時代精神 of 1995 -- than
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有點像是1995年的Zeitgeist網路,
06:16
"Click點擊 here for a picture圖片 of my dog."
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「點這裡看我的狗的照片」。
06:18
That is -- you know, there's no sentence句子
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這個連結比其他任何說明
06:20
that kind of conjures浮現 up that period better than that, I think,
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都更能詮釋那個時代,
06:24
which哪一個 is that you suddenly突然 have the power功率 to put up a picture圖片 of your dog
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你突然可以把自家狗的照片放上網路,
06:27
and link鏈接 to it, and somebody reading the page
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建立一個連結,這樣在別人讀到這個網頁時,
06:30
has the power功率 to click點擊 on that link鏈接 or not click點擊 on that link鏈接.
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他就能選擇要不要開啟這個連結。
06:33
And, you know, I don't want to belittle貶低 that. That, in a sense --
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我並不是要眨低這個模式,
06:36
to reference參考 what Jeff傑夫 was talking about yesterday昨天 --
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我只是要引用昨天傑夫所談到的事情,
06:39
that was, in a sense, the kind of interface接口 electricity電力 that
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這就像是一個電力介面,
06:41
powered動力 a lot of the explosion爆炸 of interest利益 in the Web捲筒紙:
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可以引起大家對網路的興趣,
06:44
that you could put up a link鏈接, and somebody could click點擊 on it,
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你只要放上一個連結,另一個人點選之後,
06:46
and it could take you anywhere隨地 you wanted to go.
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就可以到任何地方去。
06:48
But it's still a very one-to-one一到一個 kind of relationship關係.
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但這種關係還是維持在一對一的狀況下,
06:50
There's one person putting up the link鏈接, and there's another另一個 person
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一個人放上連結,另一個人
06:52
on the other end結束 trying to decide決定 whether是否 to click點擊 on it or not.
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則在另一端思考要不要點選。
06:57
The new model模型 is much more like this,
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新的模式則比較像這樣,
06:59
and we've我們已經 already已經 seen看到 a couple一對 of references引用 to this.
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大家應該都已經看過好幾個這種例子了,
07:01
This is what happens發生 when you search搜索 "Steven史蒂芬 Johnson約翰遜" on Google谷歌.
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當你在Google上搜尋「史帝芬·強生」就會看到這個頁面。
07:05
About two months個月 ago, I had the great breakthrough突破 --
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大約二個月之前,我個人有了重大突破,
07:09
one of my great, kind of shining閃亮的 achievements成就 --
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有點像是我個人的重大成就,
07:12
which哪一個 is that my website網站 finally最後 became成為 a top最佳 result結果 for "Steven史蒂芬 Johnson約翰遜."
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我個人的網頁終於站上了「史帝芬·強生」搜尋結果的第一列,
07:15
There's some theoretical理論 physicist物理學家 at MITMIT named命名 Steven史蒂芬 Johnson約翰遜
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有個麻省理工學院的物理學家也叫史帝芬·強生,
07:21
who has dropped下降 two spots斑點, I'm happy快樂 to say.
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他下降了二位,我很高興...
07:24
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
07:25
And, you know, I mean, I'll look at a couple一對 of things like this,
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我會上好幾個搜尋網站,
07:29
but Google谷歌 is obviously明顯 the greatest最大 technology技術 ever invented發明 for navel gazing凝視.
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但對自大的人來說,Google顯然是有史以來最好用的科技,
07:33
It's just that there are so many許多 other people in your navel when you gaze凝視.
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只是當你在自我陶醉的時候,還會出現其他許多人而已。
07:36
Because effectively有效, what's happening事件 here,
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你所看到的這個頁面,
07:41
what's creating創建 this page, obviously明顯 -- and we all know this,
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雖然大家都知道是怎麼回事,
07:43
but it's worth價值 just thinking思維 about it --
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但我們還是來想一想,
07:45
is not some person deciding決定 that I am the number one answer回答 for Steven史蒂芬 Johnson約翰遜,
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這並不是由某人來決定讓我來當這個搜尋的第一個答案,
07:49
but rather somehow不知何故 the entire整個 web捲筒紙 of people
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而是由所有的網路成員來決定,
07:53
putting up pages網頁 and deciding決定 to link鏈接 to my page or not link鏈接 to it,
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他們會放上自己的網頁,決定是否要連結到我的網頁,
07:56
and Google谷歌 just sitting坐在 there and running賽跑 the numbers數字.
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Google只是坐在那裡數連結的數量而已。
07:59
So there's this collective集體 decision-making做決定 that's going on.
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這背後是由群體所做成的決策,
08:03
This page is effectively有效, collectively authored創作 by the Web捲筒紙,
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這個搜尋結果是由全體網路成員共同撰寫而成,
08:06
and Google谷歌 is just helping幫助 us
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Google只是在一旁協助,
08:08
kind of to put the authorship作者 in one kind of coherent相干 place地點.
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提供一個場地讓大家共同撰寫。
08:11
Now, they're more innovative創新 -- well, Google's谷歌的 pretty漂亮 innovative創新 --
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還有許多創新的部分--嗯,Google一向很創新,
08:14
but there are some new twists曲折 on this.
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這裡有些新的技術,
08:17
There's this incredibly令人難以置信 interesting有趣 new site現場 -- TechnoratiTechnorati的 --
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像這個很棒的有趣新奇網站--Technorati,
08:19
that's filled填充 with lots of little widgets小部件 that are expanding擴大 on these.
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裡面都是一些從這個搜尋概念發展出來的小玩意兒,
08:23
And these are looking in the blog博客 world世界 and the world世界 of weblogs博客.
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它會去搜尋每個人的部落格,自成一個網路部落格世界。
08:27
He's analyzed分析 basically基本上 all the weblogs博客 out there that he's tracking追踪.
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它會追蹤分析所有的部落格,
08:31
And he's tracking追踪 how many許多 other weblogs博客 linked關聯 to those weblogs博客,
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看有多少其他的部落格連結到這種部落格,
08:34
and so you have kind of an authority權威 --
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因此就可以看出各個部落格的權威性,
08:36
a weblog博客 that has a lot of links鏈接 to it
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有較多人連結的部落格,
08:38
is more authoritative權威性 than a weblog博客 that has few少數 links鏈接 to it.
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就比較少人連結的部落格具有權威性。
08:43
And so at any given特定 time, on any given特定 page on the Web捲筒紙, actually其實,
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所以在某個特定時間內,只要你選定任何一個網路頁面,
08:45
you can say, what does the weblog博客 community社區 think about this page?
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你就可以知道部落客們對這個網頁有什麼評價,
08:48
And you can get a list名單.
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你會看到一份清單,
08:50
This is what they think about my site現場; it's ranked排名 by blog博客 authority權威.
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這是部落客們對我的網頁的排名,
08:53
You can also rank it by the latest最新 posts帖子.
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你也可以看到最新文章的排名。
08:55
So when I was talking in "Emergence緊急情況,"
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當我在寫「崛起」這本書時,
08:58
I talked about the limitations限制 of the one-way單程 linking鏈接 architecture建築
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我在裡面談到了單向連結架構的限制,
09:00
that, basically基本上, you could link鏈接 to somebody else其他
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也就是說,你可以連結到其他人,
09:02
but they wouldn't不會 necessarily一定 know that you were pointing指點 to them.
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但其他人並不一定知道你做了連結,
09:04
And that was one of the reasons原因 why the web捲筒紙
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這也是為什麼舊的網路模式
09:07
wasn't quite相當 as emergent應急 as it could be
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沒有那麼興盛的原因之一,
09:09
because you needed需要 two-way雙向 linking鏈接, you needed需要 that kind of feedback反饋 mechanism機制
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因為大家都喜歡雙向連結,大家都需要回饋的機制,
09:11
to be able能夠 to really do interesting有趣 things.
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才能創造出有趣的事情來。
09:13
Well, something like TechnoratiTechnorati的 is supplying供應 that.
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現在,像Technorati這種網站就能提供這種服務。
09:16
Now what's interesting有趣 here is that this is a quote引用 from Dave戴夫 Weinberger溫伯格,
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我要引用大衛.溫柏格的話來闡述這個有趣的現象,
09:19
where he talks會談 about everything being存在 purposive立意 in the Web捲筒紙 --
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他認為網路的一切都具有某種目的:
09:23
there's nothing artificial人造.
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「全都是人為的東西。」
09:25
He has this line where he says, you know, you're going to put up a link鏈接 there,
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他說這句話的意思是,如果你看到一個連結在某處,
09:27
if you see a link鏈接, somebody decided決定 to put it there.
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那一定是另外的某人放上去的。
09:30
And he says, the link鏈接 to one site現場 didn't just grow增長 on the other page "like a tree fungus."
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他還說,某個網站的連結,並不像菇菌寄生在樹上那樣在某個網頁自動長出來,
09:35
And in fact事實, I think that's not entirely完全 true真正 anymore.
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但我覺得這並不完全適用於現在的網路。
09:38
I could put up a feed飼料 of all those links鏈接 generated產生 by TechnoratiTechnorati的
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我可以在我網頁的右手邊,
09:42
on the right-hand右手 side of my page,
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訂閱Technorati所產生的所有連結,
09:44
and they would change更改 as the overall總體 ecology生態 of the Web捲筒紙 changes變化.
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那麼在網路生態改變的時候,我也看得到他們的改變,
09:47
That little list名單 there would change更改.
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這份清單也會跟著改變,
09:49
I wouldn't不會 really be directly in control控制 of it.
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但我並沒有實際參與控制這份清單。
09:51
So it's much closer接近, in a way, to a data數據 fungus, in a sense,
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這有點像是是網頁的寄生物,他們在我的網頁不斷地繁殖,
09:54
wrapped包裹 around that page, than it is to a deliberate商榷 link鏈接 that I've placed放置 there.
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而不是我刻意放上去的某個連結。
10:00
Now, what you're having here is basically基本上 a global全球 brain
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現在我們所看到的,有點像是全球網友組合而成的大腦,
10:03
that you're able能夠 to do lots of kind of experiments實驗 on to see what it's thinking思維.
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你可以做許多測試來看它在想什麼,
10:06
And there are all these interesting有趣 tools工具.
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還有許多有趣的工具可以使用。
10:08
Google谷歌 does the Google谷歌 Zeitgeist時代精神,
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Google推出了Google Zeitgeist,
10:10
which哪一個 looks容貌 at search搜索 requests要求 to test測試 what's going on, what people are interested有興趣 in,
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它會分析搜尋的字彙,以瞭解最近發生了什麼事,大家對什麼有興趣等,
10:15
and they publish發布 it with lots of fun開玩笑 graphs.
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再以有趣的圖表呈現出來。
10:17
And I'm saying a lot of nice不錯 things about Google谷歌,
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我說了很多Google的好話,
10:19
so I'll be I'll be saying one little critical危急 thing.
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所以我現在要說Google的一個小缺點,
10:20
There's a problem問題 with the Google谷歌 Zeitgeist時代精神,
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Google Zeitgeist有一個問題,
10:22
which哪一個 is it often經常 comes back with news新聞 that a lot of people are searching搜索
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那就是它會把小甜甜布蘭妮的照片成為熱門搜尋這件事,
10:26
for Britney布蘭妮 Spears布蘭妮 pictures圖片, which哪一個 is not necessarily一定 news新聞.
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當成新聞來處理,但這已經不是新聞了;
10:30
The Columbia哥倫比亞 blows打擊 up, suddenly突然 there are a lot of searches搜索 on Columbia哥倫比亞.
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哥倫比亞號爆炸,突然就會有很多人上網搜尋哥倫比亞號,
10:34
Well, you know, we should expect期望 to see that.
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這是一定的啊...
10:36
That's not necessarily一定 something we didn't know already已經.
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那就不是什麼新聞了...
10:38
So the key thing in terms條款 of these new tools工具
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所以對這些新式工具來說,
10:40
that are kind of plumbing水暖 the depths深處 of the global全球 brain,
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最重要的是要推深這個網路大腦的深度,
10:43
that are sending發出 kind of trace跟踪 dyes染料 through通過 that whole整個 bloodstream血液 --
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他們必須在血管裡注入一些可以用來追蹤的染色因子--
10:47
the question is, are you finding發現 out something new?
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問題是,你找得出什麼是新聞嗎?
10:49
And one of the things that I experimented試驗 with is this thing called Google谷歌 Share分享
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我針對Google Share做了另一個實驗,
10:52
which哪一個 is basically基本上, you take an abstract抽象 term術語,
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我選定某個詞彙,
10:56
and you search搜索 Google谷歌 for that term術語,
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在Google上進行搜尋,
10:59
and then you search搜索 the results結果 that you get back for somebody's某人的 name名稱.
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然後在這個搜尋結果裡再搜尋某個人的名字,
11:02
So basically基本上, the number of pages網頁 that mention提到 this term術語,
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所以,同時提到這個詞彙和某人名字的頁面數,
11:06
that also mention提到 this page, the percentage百分比 of those pages網頁
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佔提到這個詞彙頁面數的百分比,
11:09
is that person's人的 Google谷歌 Share分享 of that term術語.
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就是這二者之間的關聯百分比。
11:11
So you can do kind of interesting有趣 contests競賽.
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所以我們可以來做個有趣的比賽,
11:13
Like for instance, this is a Google谷歌 Share分享 of the TEDTED Conference會議.
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像是為TED研討會來辦個比賽,
11:17
So Richard理查德 Saul索爾 Wurman沃爾曼
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理查·沙烏·吳爾曼(TED創辦人)就和TED研討會
11:20
has about a 15 percent百分 Google谷歌 Share分享 of the TEDTED conference會議.
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產生了百分之15的關聯性;
11:24
Our good friend朋友 Chris克里斯 has about a six percent百分 -- but with a bullet子彈, I might威力 add.
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我們的好朋友克里斯有百分之6,但是他威脅我,所以我會幫他加一點...
11:29
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
11:31
But the interesting有趣 thing is, you can broaden擴大 the search搜索 a little bit.
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有趣的是,你還可以加大搜尋的範圍,
11:34
And it turns out, actually其實, that 42 percent百分 is the Mola莫拉 mola莫拉 fish.
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你會發現,翻車魚有百分之42的關聯性,
11:37
I had no idea理念.
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真不知道是怎麼搞的...
11:39
No, that's not true真正.
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不,這不是真的。
11:40
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
11:43
I made製作 that up because I just wanted to put up a slide滑動
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那是我捏造的,我只是想放一張
11:45
of the Mola莫拉 mola莫拉 fish.
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翻車魚的照片。
11:47
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
11:49
I also did -- and I don't want to start開始 a little fight鬥爭 in the next下一個 panel面板 --
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我並不想和下一組演講人打起來,
11:52
but I did a Google谷歌 Share分享 analysis分析 of evolution演化 and natural自然 selection選擇.
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但我的確做了一份有關演進和物競天擇的Google Share分析,
11:55
So right here -- now this is a big category類別, you have smaller percentages百分比,
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看這裡,因為這是一個很大的題目,所以關聯性會很小,
12:00
so this is 0.7 percent百分 -- Dan Dennett丹尼特, who'll誰就會 be speaking請講 shortly不久.
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鄧·丹尼特有百分之0.7,他待會兒會上台演講,
12:05
Right below下面 him, 0.5 percent百分, Steven史蒂芬 Pinker平克.
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在他後面的是史帝芬·平克,有百分之0.5,
12:10
So Dennett's丹尼特的 in the lead a little bit there.
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所以目前丹尼特領先一點。
12:12
But what's interesting有趣 is you can then broaden擴大 the search搜索
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有趣的是,你可以擴大搜尋範圍,
12:14
and actually其實 see interesting有趣 things and get a sense of what else其他 is out there.
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你會發現一些很有趣的事,看到一些好玩的結果。
12:18
So Gary加里 Bauer鮑爾 is not too far behind背後 --
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蓋里·鮑爾(政治家)就緊跟在後,
12:21
has slightly different不同 theories理論 about evolution演化 and natural自然 selection選擇.
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雖然他對物競天擇有一點不同的看法;
12:26
And right behind背後 him is L. Ron羅恩 Hubbard哈伯德. So --
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緊接在後的是羅恩.賀伯特(山達基教創辦人)...
12:29
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
12:31
you can see we're in the ascot阿斯科特, which哪一個 is always good.
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我們好像在賽馬場上哩...還真不錯。
12:33
And by the way, Chris克里斯, that would've會一直 been a really good panel面板,
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對了,克里斯,他們可以組成一個很棒的演講,
12:35
I think, right there.
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就讓他們在那裡講...
12:36
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
12:41
Hubbard哈伯德 apparently顯然地 started開始 to reach達到, but besides除了 that,
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賀伯特應該已經準備好了,不管怎樣,
12:43
I think it would be good next下一個 year.
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明年的演講一定很精采。
12:45
Another另一個 quick thing -- this is a slightly different不同 thing,
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再講另一件不太一樣的事,
12:47
but this analysis分析 some of you may可能 have seen看到.
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你們可能有看過這種分析,
12:49
It just came來了 out. This is bursty突發 words,
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這種分析剛剛出爐,是有關熱門詞彙的分析,
12:51
looking at the historical歷史的 record記錄 of State of the Union聯盟 Addresses地址.
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主要分析歷屆國情諮文出現的詞彙。
12:56
So these are words that suddenly突然 start開始 to appear出現 out of nowhere無處,
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這些詞彙不知道是怎麼跑出來的,
13:00
so they're kind of, you know, memes模因 that start開始 taking服用 off,
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有點像是隨機挑選的詞彙,
13:02
that didn't have a lot of historical歷史的 precedent先例 before.
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以前沒有什麼先例。
13:05
So the first one is -- these are the bursty突發 words around 1860s --
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讓我們來看看1860年代最熱門的詞彙:
13:08
slaves奴隸, emancipation解放, slavery奴隸制度, rebellion暴動, Kansas堪薩斯.
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奴隸、解放、奴隸制度、暴亂、堪薩斯。
13:11
That's Britney布蘭妮 Spears布蘭妮. I mean, you know, OK, interesting有趣.
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這些詞就是那個年代的小甜甜布蘭妮,很有趣吧!
13:13
They're talking about slavery奴隸制度 in 1860.
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1860年代他們所談的是奴隸制度。
13:15
1935 -- relief浮雕, depression蕭條, recovery復甦 banks銀行.
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1935年:救濟金、經濟大蕭條、復甦、銀行。
13:18
And OK, I didn't learn學習 anything new there as well -- that's pretty漂亮 obvious明顯.
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好,很顯然這裡面沒有什麼是我們不知道的。
13:21
1985, right at the center中央 of the Reagan裡根 years年份 --
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1985年,那是雷根執政的中期:
13:25
that's, we're, there's, we've我們已經, it's.
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那是、我們是、有一些、我們以前、那件事。
13:28
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
13:30
Now, there's one way to interpret this, which哪一個 is to say that
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現在,讓我們來看看,
13:33
"emancipation解放" and "depression蕭條" and "recovery復甦" all have a lot of syllables音節.
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「解放」、「經濟大蕭條」和「復甦」的音節都很多,
13:36
So you know, you can actually其實 download下載 -- it's hard to remember記得 those.
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你可以把這些詞下載下來,因為確實不是那麼好記;
13:41
But seriously認真地, actually其實, what you can see there,
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但如果我們認真地看待這件事,
13:43
in a way that would be very hard to detect檢測 otherwise除此以外,
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你會發現一些不容易察覺的事,
13:45
is Reagan裡根 reinventing重塑 the political政治 language語言 of the country國家
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那就是雷根重新改造了我們國家的政治語言,
13:48
and shifting to a much more intimate親密, much more folksy平易近人, much more telegenic上鏡 --
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把政治語言修正為較為親切、較具庶民風格、較適合在電視上播放的語言,
13:52
contracting承包 all those verbs動詞.
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而不再是那些生硬的詞彙。
13:54
You know, 20 years年份 before it was still, "Ask not what you can do,"
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20年前大家都說:「不要問國家為你做了什麼」,
13:56
but with Reagan裡根, it's, "that's where, there's Nancy南希 and I," that kind of language語言.
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雷根說的卻是:「南茜和我來到這裡」這類的話。
14:01
And so something we kind of knew知道,
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我們都知道雷根說了什麼,
14:04
but you didn't actually其實 notice注意 syntactically語法 what he was doing.
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但卻很難察覺他在語句上做了什麼改變。
14:06
I'll go very quickly很快.
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我很快地說明一下。
14:08
The question now -- and this is the really interesting有趣 question --
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現在,很有趣的問題是:
14:10
is, what kind of higher-level更高層次 shape形狀 is emerging新興 right now
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現在在網路世界裡正在興起的現象是什麼?
14:14
in the overall總體 Web捲筒紙 ecosystem生態系統 -- and particularly尤其 in the ecosystem生態系統 of the blogs博客
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尤其是在網路世界走在最前端的部落格,
14:18
because they are really kind of at the cutting切割 edge邊緣.
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有什麼新的現象?
14:21
And I think what happens發生 there will also happen發生 in the wider更寬的 system系統.
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我相信那裡的新玩意兒也會影響到其他的地方。
14:23
Now there was a very interesting有趣 article文章 by Clay粘土 Shirky舍基
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克雷.雪積大約在一個月以前
14:26
that got a lot of attention注意 about a month ago,
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寫了一篇有趣的文章,引起了大家的注意,
14:28
and this is basically基本上 the distribution分配 of links鏈接
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你可以在這裡看到網路上各個不同部落格
14:30
on the web捲筒紙 to all these various各個 different不同 blogs博客.
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引用這篇文章的連結分佈。
14:35
It follows如下 a power功率 law, so that there are a few少數 extremely非常 well-linked以及聯 to, popular流行 blogs博客,
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這個圖呈現出典型的80/20理論,少數幾個知名的部落格擁有最多的連結,
14:40
and a long tail尾巴 of blogs博客 with very few少數 links鏈接.
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後面則有一大串部落格都只有少數連結,
14:44
So 20 percent百分 of the blogs博客 get 80 percent百分 of the links鏈接.
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所以有百分之20的部落格擁有百分之80的連結。
14:47
Now this is a very interesting有趣 thing.
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這真的很有趣!
14:49
It's caused造成 a lot of controversy爭議
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這引起許多討論,
14:51
because people thought that this was the ultimate最終 kind of one man,
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因為大家原本認為網路就代表著民主,
14:53
one modem調製解調器 democracy民主, where anybody任何人 can get out there and get their voice語音 heard聽說.
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擁有數據機就擁有民主,每個人都可以發出自己的聲音。
14:57
And so the question is, "Why is this happening事件?"
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問題是:「為什麼會這樣?」
14:59
It's not being存在 imposed徵收 by fiat菲亞特 from above以上.
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這不是由上而下傳遞的命令,
15:03
It's an emergent應急 property屬性 of the blogosphere博客 right now.
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這是部落格文化的副產品。
15:06
Now, what's great about it is that people are working加工 on --
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最棒的是,大家都在忙著--
15:09
within seconds of Clay粘土 publishing出版 this piece, people started開始 working加工 on changing改變
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當克雷發表了那篇文章後,幾秒之內,大家就忙著改寫
15:14
the underlying底層 rules規則 of the system系統 so that a different不同 shape形狀 would start開始 appearing出現.
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部落格的潛規則,因此形成了一種現象。
15:17
And basically基本上, the shape形狀 appears出現
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這種現象大部分是導因於
15:19
largely大部分 because of a kind of a first-mover第一個動的 advantage優點.
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某種類似先佔先贏的優勢,
15:21
if you're the first site現場 there, everybody每個人 links鏈接 to you.
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也就是說,如果你是第一個連結的網站,其他人都會連結到你這裡;
15:23
If you're the second第二 site現場 there, most people link鏈接 to you.
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如果你搶到了第二順位,大部分的人也會連結到你這裡;
15:25
And so very quickly很快 you can accumulate積累 a bunch of links鏈接,
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很快地,你就會累積出大量的連結,
15:28
and it makes品牌 it more likely容易 for newcomers新人 to link鏈接 to you in the future未來,
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未來只要是新建立的網站,都很有可能連結到你的網站,
15:30
and then you get this kind of shape形狀.
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這就形成了這個現象。
15:32
And so what Dave戴夫 Sifry希夫瑞 at TechnoratiTechnorati的 started開始 working加工 on,
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大衛.西弗瑞(Technorati創辦人)在Technorati上所做的,
15:35
literally按照字面 as Shirky舍基 started開始 -- after he published發表 his piece --
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其實就是類似在雪積發表文章之後,
15:38
was something that basically基本上 just gave a new kind of priority優先 to newcomers新人.
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給那些新加入的網站一個機會。
15:42
And he started開始 looking at interesting有趣 newcomers新人 that don't have a lot of links鏈接,
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他觀察那些沒有多少連結的新進網站,
15:45
that suddenly突然 get a bunch of links鏈接 in the last 24 hours小時.
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為何會在短短24小時之內累積出大量的連結。
15:49
So in a sense, bursty突發 weblogs博客 coming未來 from new voices聲音.
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就某種程度來說,熱門的部落格都是些新的網站。
15:52
So he's working加工 on a tool工具 right there that can actually其實 change更改 the overall總體 system系統.
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所以他希望能開發出改變整個遊戲規則的工具,
15:57
And it creates創建 a kind of planned計劃 emergence緊急情況.
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可以創造出某種預設的現象,
15:59
You're not totally完全 in control控制,
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你雖沒有完全的掌控權力,
16:01
but you're changing改變 the underlying底層 rules規則 in interesting有趣 ways方法
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但是你卻以有趣的方式改變各項潛規則,
16:03
because you have an end結束 result結果 which哪一個 is
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因為你最終將會以更民主的方式,
16:05
maybe a more democratic民主的 spread傳播 of voices聲音.
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將自己的聲音散佈出去。
16:07
So the most amazing驚人 thing about this -- and I'll end結束 on this note注意 --
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所以這件事最棒的地方在於--我想用這個做為結尾--
16:09
is, most emergent應急 systems系統, most self-organizing自組織 systems系統
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這些最新發展出來的系統、可以由使用者自行組織而成的系統,
16:12
are not made製作 up of component零件 parts部分 that are capable of looking at the overall總體 pattern模式
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並不是由零件所組成,這些系統有能力看到整體趨勢,
16:17
and changing改變 their behavior行為 based基於 on whether是否 they like the pattern模式 or not.
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並且可以依據他們對該趨勢的喜好程度,而修改自己的行為。
16:21
So the most wonderful精彩 thing, I think, about this whole整個 debate辯論
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我認為這些對於80/20理論的爭論,
16:23
about power功率 laws法律 and software軟件 that could change更改 it
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以及設計軟體來改變這個系統的這些事,
16:25
is the fact事實 that we're having the conversation會話.
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都代表了一件事:我們終於可以對話了!
16:28
I hope希望 it continues繼續 here.
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我希望未來能持續對話下去。
16:30
Thanks謝謝 a lot.
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謝謝!
Translated by Marie Wu
Reviewed by Zhu Jie

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Johnson - Writer
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience.

Why you should listen

Steven Johnson is a leading light of today's interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to innovation. His writings have influenced everything from cutting-edge ideas in urban planning to the battle against 21st-century terrorism. Johnson was chosen by Prospect magazine as one of the top ten brains of the digital future, and The Wall Street Journal calls him "one of the most persuasive advocates for the role of collaboration in innovation."

Johnson's work on the history of innovation inspired the Emmy-nominated six-part series on PBS, "How We Got To Now with Steven Johnson," which aired in the fall of 2014. The book version of How We Got To Now was a finalist for the PEN/E.O. Wilson Literary Science Writing Award. His new book, Wonderland: How Play Made the Modern World, revolves around the creative power of play and delight: ideas and innovations that set into motion many momentous changes in science, technology, politics and society. 

Johnson is also the author of the bestselling Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation, one of his many books celebrating progress and innovation. Others include The Invention of Air and The Ghost Map. Everything Bad Is Good For You, one of the most discussed books of 2005, argued that the increasing complexity of modern media is training us to think in more complex ways. Emergence and Future Perfect explore the power of bottom-up intelligence in both nature and contemporary society.

An innovator himself, Johnson has co-created three influential sites: the pioneering online magazine FEED, the Webby-Award-winning community site, Plastic.com, and the hyperlocal media site outside.in, which was acquired by AOL in 2011.

Johnson is a regular contributor to WIRED magazine, as well as the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and many other periodicals. He has appeared on many high-profile television programs, including "The Charlie Rose Show," "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer."


More profile about the speaker
Steven Johnson | Speaker | TED.com