TEDxParis 2010
Guy-Philippe Goldstein: How cyberattacks threaten real-world peace
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Nations can now attack other nations with cyber weapons: silent strikes on another country's computer systems, power grids, dams that leave no trace behind. (Think of the Stuxnet worm.) Guy-Philippe Goldstein shows how cyberattacks can leap between the digital and physical worlds to prompt armed conflict -- and how we might avert this global security hazard.
Guy-Philippe Goldstein - Author
Guy-Philippe Goldstein is the author of Babel Minute Zero, a novel that examines the reality of cyberwar in our current geopolitical topography. Full bio
Guy-Philippe Goldstein is the author of Babel Minute Zero, a novel that examines the reality of cyberwar in our current geopolitical topography. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
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Good afternoon.
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If you have followed
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diplomatic news in the past weeks,
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you may have heard of a kind of crisis
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between China and the U.S.
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regarding cyberattacks
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against the American company Google.
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Many things have been said about this.
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Some people have called a cyberwar
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what may actually be
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just a spy operation --
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and obviously, a quite mishandled one.
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However, this episode reveals
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the growing anxiety in the Western world
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regarding these emerging cyber weapons.
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It so happens that these weapons are dangerous.
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They're of a new nature:
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they could lead the world
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into a digital conflict
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that could turn into an armed struggle.
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These virtual weapons can also destroy the physical world.
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In 1982, in the middle of the Cold War
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in Soviet Siberia,
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a pipeline exploded with a burst of 3 kilotons,
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the equivalent of a fourth of the Hiroshima bomb.
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Now we know today -- this was revealed
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by Thomas Reed,
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Ronald Reagan's former U.S. Air Force Secretary --
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this explosion was actually the result
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of a CIA sabotage operation,
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in which they had managed
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to infiltrate the IT management systems
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of that pipeline.
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More recently, the U.S. government revealed
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that in September 2008, more than 3 million people
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in the state of Espirito Santo in Brazil
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were plunged into darkness,
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victims of a blackmail operation from cyber pirates.
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Even more worrying for the Americans,
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in December 2008 the holiest of holies,
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the IT systems of CENTCOM,
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the central command
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managing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,
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may have been infiltrated by hackers
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who used these:
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plain but infected USB keys.
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And with these keys, they may have been able
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to get inside CENTCOM's systems,
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to see and hear everything,
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and maybe even infect some of them.
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As a result, the Americans take the threat very seriously.
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I'll quote General James Cartwright,
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Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
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who says in a report to Congress
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that cyberattacks could be as powerful as
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weapons of mass destruction.
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Moreover, the Americans have decided
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to spend over 30 billion dollars
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in the next five years
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to build up their cyberwar capabilities.
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And across the world today, we see
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a sort of cyber arms race,
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with cyberwar units
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built up by countries like North Korea
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or even Iran.
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Yet, what you'll never hear
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from spokespeople
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from the Pentagon or the French Department of Defence
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is that the question isn't really
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who's the enemy, but actually
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the very nature of cyber weapons.
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And to understand why, we must look at how,
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through the ages, military technologies
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have maintained or destroyed
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world peace.
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For example,
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if we'd had TEDxParis
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350 years ago,
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we would have talked about the military innovation of the day --
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the massive Vauban-style fortifications --
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and we could have predicted
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a period of stability in the world or in Europe.
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which was indeed the case in Europe
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between 1650 and 1750.
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Similarly, if we'd had this talk
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30 or 40 years ago, we would have seen
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how the rise of nuclear weapons,
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and the threat of mutually assured destruction they imply,
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prevents a direct fight between the two superpowers.
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However, if we'd had this talk 60 years ago,
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we would have seen how the emergence
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of new aircraft and tank technologies,
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which give the advantage to the attacker,
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make the Blitzkrieg doctrine very credible
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and thus create the possibility of war in Europe.
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So military technologies
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can influence the course of the world,
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can make or break world peace --
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and there lies the issue with cyber weapons.
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The first issue:
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Imagine a potential enemy announcing
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they're building a cyberwar unit,
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but only for their country's defense.
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Okay, but what distinguishes it
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from an offensive unit?
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It gets even more complicated
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when the doctrines of use become ambiguous.
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Just 3 years ago, both the U.S. and France
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were saying they were investing militarily in cyberspace,
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strictly to defend their IT systems.
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But today both countries say
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the best defense is to attack.
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And so, they're joining China,
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whose doctrine of use for 15 years has been
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both defensive and offensive.
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The second issue:
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Your country could be under cyberattack
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with entire regions plunged into total darkness,
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and you may not even know
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who's attacking you.
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Cyber weapons have this peculiar feature:
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they can be used
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without leaving traces.
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This gives a tremendous advantage to the attacker,
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because the defender
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doesn't know who to fight back against.
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And if the defender retaliates against the wrong adversary,
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they risk making one more enemy
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and ending up diplomatically isolated.
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This issue isn't just theoretical.
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In May 2007, Estonia was the victim of cyberattacks,
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that damaged its communication
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and banking systems.
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Estonia accused Russia.
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But NATO, though it defends Estonia,
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reacted very prudently. Why?
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Because NATO couldn't be 100% sure
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that the Kremlin was indeed behind these attacks.
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So to sum up, on the one hand,
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when a possible enemy announces
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they're building a cyberwar unit,
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you don't know whether it's for attack
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or defense.
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On the other hand,
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we know that these weapons give an advantage to attacking.
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In a major article published in 1978,
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Professor Robert Jervis of Columbia University in New York
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described a model to understand
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how conflicts could arise.
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In this context,
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when you don't know if the potential enemy
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is preparing for defense or attack,
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and if the weapons give an advantage to attacking,
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then this environment is
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most likely to spark a conflict.
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This is the environment that's being created
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by cyber weapons today,
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and historically it was the environment in Europe
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at the onset of World War I.
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So cyber weapons
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are dangerous by nature,
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but in addition, they're emerging
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in a much more unstable environment.
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If you remember the Cold War,
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it was a very hard game,
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but a stable one played only by two players,
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which allowed for some coordination between the two superpowers.
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Today we're moving to a multipolar world
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in which coordination is much more complicated,
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as we have seen at Copenhagen.
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And this coordination may become even trickier
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with the introduction of cyber weapons.
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Why? Because no nation
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knows for sure whether its neighbor
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is about to attack.
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So nations may live under the threat
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of what Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling
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called the "reciprocal fear of surprise attack,"
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as I don't know if my neighbor
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is about to attack me or not --
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I may never know --
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so I might take the upper hand
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and attack first.
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Just last week,
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in a New York Times article dated January 26, 2010,
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it was revealed for the first time that
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officials at the National Security Agency
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were considering the possibility of preemptive attacks
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in cases where the U.S. was about
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to be cyberattacked.
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And these preemptive attacks
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might not just remain
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in cyberspace.
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In May 2009, General Kevin Chilton,
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commander of the U.S. nuclear forces,
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stated that in the event of cyberattacks against the U.S.,
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all options would be on the table.
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Cyber weapons do not replace
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conventional or nuclear weapons --
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they just add a new layer to the existing system of terror.
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But in doing so, they also add their own risk
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of triggering a conflict --
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as we've just seen, a very important risk --
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and a risk we may have to confront
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with a collective security solution
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which includes all of us:
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European allies, NATO members,
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our American friends and allies,
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our other Western allies,
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and maybe, by forcing their hand a little,
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our Russian and Chinese partners.
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The information technologies
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Joël de Rosnay was talking about,
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which were historically born from military research,
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are today on the verge of developing
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an offensive capability of destruction,
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which could tomorrow, if we're not careful,
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completely destroy world peace.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Guy-Philippe Goldstein - AuthorGuy-Philippe Goldstein is the author of Babel Minute Zero, a novel that examines the reality of cyberwar in our current geopolitical topography.
Why you should listen
By day, Guy-Philippe Goldstein is a management consultant. At night, he writes gripping political thrillers treating of cyberwar. He's a graduate of France’s prestigious Hautes Études Commerciales, and has an MBA from Northwestern University. Babel Minute Zero is his first novel.
Guy-Philippe Goldstein | Speaker | TED.com