TEDxSanJoseCA
Seth Shostak: ET is (probably) out there -- get ready
赛斯.肖斯塔克：外星人（可能）真的存在 -- 请准备好
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SETI研究员赛斯.肖斯塔克打赌说我们会在接下来的24年里找到外星生物，否则他就免费请你喝杯咖啡。在TED的加州圣何塞拍摄点，他解释了新的科学技术和概率学规律是如何证明寻找外星人很可能有重大突破的-- 也预测了如果发现一个比我们先进很多的文明会对地球造成什么影响。（TED加州圣何塞拍摄）
Seth Shostak - Astronomer
Seth Shostak is an astronomer, alien hunter and bulwark of good, exciting science. Full bio
Seth Shostak is an astronomer, alien hunter and bulwark of good, exciting science. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Is E.T. out there?
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外星人真的存在吗？
00:13
Well, I work at the SETI Institute.
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我在SETI机构工作
00:16
That's almost my name. SETI:
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SETI几乎成为了我的代名词
00:17
Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence.
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它的意思是：搜寻地外文明计划
00:19
In other words, I look for aliens,
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换句话说，我的工作是寻找外星人
00:21
and when I tell people that at a cocktail party, they usually
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当我在一个鸡尾酒聚会上跟人说起我的工作，他们通常
00:24
look at me with a mildly incredulous look on their face.
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会带着一副友善却怀疑的样子看着我
00:27
I try to keep my own face somewhat dispassionate.
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而我尽量让自己看起来很镇静
00:30
Now, a lot of people think that this is kind of idealistic,
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现在很多人都认为寻找外星人这件事太理想化
00:32
ridiculous, maybe even hopeless,
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很可笑，甚至可能毫无希望
00:35
but I just want to talk to you a little bit about why I think
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但是我只想跟你们解释为什么我认为
00:38
that the job I have is actually a privilege, okay,
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我的工作事实上是一个特权，好吗？
00:42
and give you a little bit of the motivation for my getting into
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我还会告诉你们促使我走向
00:44
this line of work, if that's what you call it.
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"这条不归路"的动机 - 如果你们这样称呼它的话
00:47
This thing — whoops, can we go back?
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这件事 - 哦，能倒回去吗？
00:50
Hello, come in, Earth.
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拜托
00:52
There we go. All right.
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好了，我们继续
00:54
This is the Owens Valley Radio Observatory
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这是奥文斯谷射电天文台
00:56
behind the Sierra Nevadas, and in 1968,
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它坐落在内华达山脉后面，在1968年
00:59
I was working there collecting data for my thesis.
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我就在那里工作，为我的论文搜集数据
01:02
Now, it's kinda lonely, it's kinda tedious, just collecting data,
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因为只是收集数据难免会有些孤单，有些无聊
01:05
so I would amuse myself by taking photos at night
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所以我会在晚上为望远镜
01:08
of the telescopes or even of myself,
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甚至给自己拍照作为娱乐
01:11
because, you know, at night, I would be the only hominid
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因为在晚上，我是30英里内
01:16
within about 30 miles.
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唯一的原始人
01:18
So here are pictures of myself.
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这里有些我自己的照片
01:20
The observatory had just acquired a new book,
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天文台刚刚添置了一本新书
01:23
written by a Russian cosmologist
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是一位俄国宇宙学家所著
01:25
by the name of Joseph Shklovsky, and then expanded
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他的名字是约瑟夫.什克洛夫斯基，这本书还被
01:28
and translated and edited by a little-known
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一位鲜为人知的康奈尔天文学家卡尔.萨根
01:31
Cornell astronomer by the name of Carl Sagan.
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扩写，翻译并校订
01:34
And I remember reading that book,
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我记得在读这本书的时候，
01:36
and at 3 in the morning I was reading this book
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那是凌晨三点
01:38
and it was explaining how the antennas I was using
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我正好看到一段在写
01:40
to measure the spins of galaxies could also be used
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我用来测量旋转星系的天线还可以用来
01:45
to communicate, to send bits of information
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进行通信，从一个星系发送信息
01:48
from one star system to another.
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去另外一个星系
01:50
Now, at 3 o'clock in the morning when you're all alone,
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你想想，凌晨三点，你自己一个人
01:52
haven't had much sleep, that was a very romantic idea,
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没睡多少觉，而那又是一个非常浪漫的念头
01:55
but it was that idea -- the fact that you could in fact
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但正是因为“你也许真的可以
01:58
prove that there's somebody out there
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证明有外星人
02:00
just using this same technology --
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而且只需用到同样的科学技术”
02:03
that appealed to me so much that 20 years later I took a job
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这个念头的吸引力太大了，所以20年后
02:05
at the SETI Institute. Now, I have to say
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我选择了SETI机构工作。现在，我必须要说
02:07
that my memory is notoriously porous, and I've often
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我的记忆力是众所周知的不可靠，甚至我自己经常
02:11
wondered whether there was any truth in this story,
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怀疑这个故事到底有没有真实性
02:13
or I was just, you know, misremembering something,
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也许我只是记错了什么
02:15
but I recently just blew up this old negative of mine,
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但是最近我刚刚赶走了这个消极的想法
02:17
and sure enough, there you can see
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并且我非常确定，你可以看到
02:19
the Shklovsky and Sagan book underneath that
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那本由什克洛夫斯基和赛根编写的书
02:21
analog calculating device.
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就在那部模拟计算装置的下面
02:24
So it was true.
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所以这个故事是真实的
02:24
All right. Now, the idea for doing this, it wasn't very old
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好了，用天线和外星人联络这一理念距离
02:27
at the time that I made that photo.
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我照下那张照片的时间并不是很久
02:29
The idea dates from 1960, when a young astronomer
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这个理念可以追溯到1960年，当时一个年轻的天文学家
02:32
by the name of Frank Drake used this antenna
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弗兰克.德雷克用西弗吉尼亚州的一根天线
02:35
in West Virginia, pointed it at a couple of nearby stars
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指向了一些附近的星球
02:38
in the hopes of eavesdropping on E.T.
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希望能偷听到外星人的谈话
02:42
Now, Frank didn't hear anything.
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但是，弗兰克并没有听到什么
02:43
Actually he did, but it turned out to be the U.S. Air Force,
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事实上他听到了一些声音，但是那只来自美国空军
02:46
which doesn't count as extraterrestrial intelligence.
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并不是什么“外星文明”
02:48
But Drake's idea here became very popular
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但是德雷克的理念从此以后开始流行
02:51
because it was very appealing — and I'll get back to that —
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因为它很吸引人 - 等会儿我还会说到
02:54
and on the basis of this experiment, which didn't succeed,
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在这个并没有成功的实验基础上，
02:57
we have been doing SETI ever since,
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我们从此之后就开始做SETI了
02:59
not continuously, but ever since.
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有过间断，但是一直在做
03:01
We still haven't heard anything.
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我们还没听到任何东西
03:03
We still haven't heard anything.
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我们还没听到任何东西
03:05
In fact, we don't know about any life beyond Earth,
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事实上，我们还不知道任何除地球以外的生命
03:06
but I'm going to suggest to you that that's going to change
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但是我认为这一切即将有变化
03:09
rather soon, and part of the reason, in fact,
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一部分原因是，事实上
03:12
the majority of the reason why I think that's going to change
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大部分原因
03:14
is that the equipment's getting better.
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是因为设备更加先进了
03:16
This is the Allen Telescope Array, about 350 miles
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这是艾伦望远镜系列，离你现在的位置
03:19
from whatever seat you're in right now.
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大约350英里远
03:21
This is something that we're using today
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这是我们现在用来搜寻外星人的仪器
03:23
to search for E.T., and the electronics have gotten
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其他的电子设备
03:25
very much better too.
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也比以前提高了很多
03:26
This is Frank Drake's electronics in 1960.
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这是弗兰克.额雷克在1960年使用的电子设备
03:29
This is the Allen Telescope Array electronics today.
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这是如今的艾伦望远镜系列电子设备
03:31
Some pundit with too much time on his hands
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有些闲的发慌的权威人士
03:34
has reckoned that the new experiments are approximately
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认为新的实验几乎
03:37
100 trillion times better than they were in 1960,
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比1960年的要精准百万亿倍
03:42
100 trillion times better.
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百万亿倍啊
03:43
That's a degree of an improvement that would look good
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如此大幅度的水平提升会
03:45
on your report card, okay?
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在你的报告上看起来非常显著，对吗？
03:48
But something that's not appreciated by the public is,
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但是没有被大众赏识的一点是
03:50
in fact, that the experiment continues to get better,
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事实上，这个实验正在越做越好
03:53
and, consequently, tends to get faster.
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所以也会越来越快
03:56
This is a little plot, and every time you show a plot,
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这是一个示意图，每当你展示示意图的时候
03:57
you lose 10 percent of the audience.
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你通常会损失百分之十的听众
03:59
I have 12 of these. (Laughter)
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不幸的是我有12个（笑声）
04:01
But what I plotted here is just some metric
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但是我绘制的只是一些
04:06
that shows how fast we're searching.
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会显示我们搜寻速度的度量标准
04:08
In other words, we're looking for a needle in a haystack.
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换句话说，我们正在大海捞针
04:10
We know how big the haystack is. It's the galaxy.
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我们知道大海有多大，它代表整个银河系
04:13
But we're going through the haystack no longer
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但是我们不再只用一个汤匙在捞
04:15
with a teaspoon but with a skip loader,
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而是用一个翻斗车
04:18
because of this increase in speed.
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这因为这样，我们的速度加快了
04:20
In fact, those of you who are still conscious
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事实上，你们其中有些仍然清醒
04:21
and mathematically competent,
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并有数学头脑的人
04:24
will note that this is a semi-log plot.
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会注意到这是一个半对数图
04:26
In other words, the rate of increase is exponential.
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换句话说，增长率是呈指数增长的
04:30
It's exponentially improving. Now, exponential is an
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它是呈指数增长的。指数是
04:33
overworked word. You hear it on the media all the time.
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一个被过度消费的词语。你总是能在媒体上听到
04:35
They don't really know what exponential means,
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他们根本不懂指数是什么意思
04:37
but this is exponential.
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但这个的确是指数
04:39
In fact, it's doubling every 18 months, and, of course,
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事实上，这个速度每18个月都会翻倍，当然
04:42
every card-carrying member of the digerati knows
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每个先知先觉的正牌会员都知道
04:44
that that's Moore's Law.
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这个正是摩尔定律
04:45
So this means that over the course of the next
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所以这代表着在接下来的
04:48
two dozen years, we'll be able to look at a million star systems,
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24年过程中，我们能看到一百万个星系
04:52
a million star systems, looking for signals
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而在这一百万个星系里面，我们要寻找
04:54
that would prove somebody's out there.
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能够证明有外星人存在的信号
04:55
Well, a million star systems, is that interesting?
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一百万个星系，听起来很有趣吧？
04:58
I mean, how many of those star systems have planets?
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我的意思是，在他们里面又有多少个星系有行星呢？
05:01
And the facts are, we didn't know the answer to that
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事实是我们在过去的15年里不知道答案
05:03
even as recently as 15 years ago, and in fact, we really
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事实上，我们
05:05
didn't know it even as recently as six months ago.
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在过去的六个月内也还是不知道答案
05:08
But now we do. Recent results suggest
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但现在我们知道了。最新的结果显示
05:11
that virtually every star has planets, and more than one.
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几乎每个恒星都有行星，而且不止一个
05:15
They're like, you know, kittens. You get a litter.
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星球就像是，你知道，小猫咪
05:18
You don't get one kitten. You get a bunch.
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一个窝里面可能没有小猫咪，也可能有一堆小猫咪
05:20
So in fact, this is a pretty accurate estimate
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所以事实上，这个结果已经非常精确的估计了
05:23
of the number of planets in our galaxy,
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银河系里行星的数量
05:27
just in our galaxy, by the way,
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顺便说一句，这个发现只限于我们的银河系
05:29
and I remind the non-astronomy majors among you
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请允许我提醒在座的非天文专业听众
05:31
that our galaxy is only one of 100 billion
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我们的银河系只是
05:34
that we can see with our telescopes.
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我们能用望远镜看到的1000亿个星系之一
05:36
That's a lot of real estate, but of course,
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这个数量很惊人，但是当然
05:37
most of these planets are going to be kind of worthless,
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大部分行星都是没有研究价值的
05:39
like, you know, Mercury, or Neptune.
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比如说像是水星，或是海王星
05:41
Neptune's probably not very big in your life.
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你可能甚至没有听说过海王星
05:43
So the question is, what fraction of these planets
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所以现在问题是，这些星球中有多少
05:48
are actually suitable for life?
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是适合生命存在的？
05:49
We don't know the answer to that either,
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我们也不知道这个问题的答案
05:51
but we will learn that answer this year, thanks to
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但是我们今年将会有答案
05:53
NASA's Kepler Space Telescope,
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这多亏美国航空航天局的开普勒太空望远镜
05:55
and in fact, the smart money, which is to say the people who work on this project,
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而事实上，精英们，也就是那些为这个项目工作的人们
05:59
the smart money is suggesting that the fraction of planets
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他们认为可能有生命存在的星球比例
06:02
that might be suitable for life is maybe one in a thousand,
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可能是千分之一
06:06
one in a hundred, something like that.
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或百分之一之类
06:09
Well, even taking the pessimistic estimate, that it's
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那么，就算是采用最悲观的预测
06:12
one in a thousand, that means that there are
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千分之一的概率，这意味着
06:15
at least a billion cousins of the Earth
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在我们的银河系中
06:17
just in our own galaxy.
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至少有十亿和地球的兄弟姐妹
06:19
Okay, now I've given you a lot of numbers here,
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好的，现在我已经给了你们很多数据
06:21
but they're mostly big numbers, okay, so, you know,
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但他们大部分都是大数据，好的
06:25
keep that in mind. There's plenty of real estate,
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记住他们，宇宙中有很多很多房子
06:28
plenty of real estate in the universe,
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很多很多
06:30
and if we're the only bit of real estate in which there's
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如果我们是少数房子里的唯一
06:33
some interesting occupants, that makes you a miracle,
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居住者的话，这算得上是一个奇迹
06:36
and I know you like to think you're a miracle,
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我也知道你很希望自己是个奇迹
06:38
but if you do science, you learn rather quickly that
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但是如果你懂科学，你就会迅速理解
06:40
every time you think you're a miracle, you're wrong,
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每当你认为自己是个奇迹的时候，你都是错的
06:42
so probably not the case.
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所以这应该不是事实
06:45
All right, so the bottom line is this:
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好了，我们的底线就是：
06:47
Because of the increase in speed, and because of the
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由于速度的增长和
06:50
vast amount of habitable real estate in the cosmos, I figure
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宇宙拥有的大量可生存的房子，我认为
06:55
we're going to pick up a signal within two dozen years.
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我们会在24年内找出一个信号
06:57
And I feel strongly enough about that to make a bet with you:
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而且我强烈认为我可以用它和你打个赌：
07:00
Either we're going to find E.T. in the next two dozen years,
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要么就是我们在接下来的24年内找到外星人
07:02
or I'll buy you a cup of coffee.
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要么我就请你喝一杯咖啡
07:06
So that's not so bad. I mean, even with two dozen years,
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所以这样对谁都不坏，我的意思是，就算是24年
07:08
you open up your browser and there's news of a signal,
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你打开了你的浏览器，看到一则关于外星人信号的新闻
07:10
or you get a cup of coffee.
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不然你免费喝到一杯咖啡
07:12
Now, let me tell you about some aspect of this that
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现在，让我告诉你一些
07:16
people don't think about, and that is,
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人们还没想到的方面，就是发现外星人之后
07:18
what happens? Suppose that what I say is true.
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会发生什么？假设我说的都是真的
07:22
I mean, who knows, but suppose it happens.
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谁知道呢？但请假设它会发生
07:24
Suppose some time in the next two dozen years
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假设在接下来的24年里的某个时间
07:25
we pick up a faint line that tells us
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我们接受到一个微弱的信号
07:28
we have some cosmic company.
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它意味着我们在宇宙里找到了同类
07:29
What is the effect? What's the consequence?
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这会带来什么影响？会有什么后果？
07:32
Now, I might be at ground zero for this.
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我可能对这些一无所知
07:34
I happen to know what the consequence for me would be,
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但我知道对于我来说后果是什么
07:35
because we've had false alarms. This is 1997,
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因为我们曾经有过一场虚惊。那是1997年
07:38
and this is a photo I made at about 3 o'clock in the morning
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这是我在凌晨三点拍下的一张照片
07:41
in Mountain View here, when we were watching
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在这儿，山景城 （加州城市），我们正在看
07:43
the computer monitors because we had picked up a signal
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电脑屏幕，因为我们刚刚接收到了一个信号
07:45
that we thought, "This is the real deal." All right?
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我们在想：“这是另一座房子。”明白了吗？
07:48
And I kept waiting for the Men in Black to show up. Right?
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而我一直在等待黑衣人的出现
07:51
I kept waiting for -- I kept waiting for my mom to call,
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我一直等一直等 - 等我妈打电话来
07:56
somebody to call, the government to call. Nobody called.
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其他人打电话来，政府打电话来。但没有人打来
07:59
Nobody called. I was so nervous
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没有人。我非常紧张
08:02
that I couldn't sit down. I just wandered around
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坐立不安。我只是走来走去
08:04
taking photos like this one, just for something to do.
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拍些相似的照片，纯粹为了找些事情干
08:07
Well, at 9:30 in the morning, with my head down
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到了早上9:30，我的头撞在了书桌上
08:09
on my desk because I obviously hadn't slept all night,
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因为显然我整晚都没睡
08:11
the phone rings and it's The New York Times.
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电话响了，是纽约时报
08:13
And I think there's a lesson in that, and that lesson is
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我认为我学到了一课，就是
08:16
that if we pick up a signal, the media, the media will be on it
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如果我们接收到了一个信号，媒体一定会收到风
08:19
faster than a weasel on ball bearings. It's going to be fast.
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媒体的速度是任何其他事物都无法比拟的
08:23
You can be sure of that. No secrecy.
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相信我，这已经不是一个秘密了
08:25
That's what happens to me. It kind of ruins my whole week,
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它就发生在我身上。这件事几乎毁了我整整一周
08:28
because whatever I've got planned that week is kind of out the window.
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因为我所有的计划都泡汤了
08:30
But what about you? What's it going to do to you?
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但是你呢？在你身上会发生什么？
08:33
And the answer is that we don't know the answer.
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答案就是我们也不知道会发生什么
08:35
We don't know what that's going to do to you,
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我们不知道在你身上会发生什么
08:35
not in the long term, and not even very much in the short term.
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长期来说不知道，短期来说也不知道
08:39
I mean, that would be a bit like
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这就像是
08:41
asking Chris Columbus in 1491, "Hey Chris,
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在1491年问克里斯.哥伦布：“嘿，克里斯
08:45
you know, what happens if it turns out that there's a
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如果你发现这儿和日本之间
08:47
continent between here and Japan, where you're sailing to,
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还有一块大陆，就在你航行的方向
08:50
what will be the consequences for humanity
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如果是真的，那你觉得这对整个人类来说
08:53
if that turns out to be the case?"
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究竟意味着什么？
08:55
And I think Chris would probably offer you some answer
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我想克里斯估计会以
08:57
that you might not have understood, but it probably
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你不会理解的方式回答你，但是
09:00
wouldn't have been right, and I think that to predict
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答案不一定正确，所以我认为去预测
09:02
what finding E.T.'s going to mean,
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找到外星人意味着什么
09:04
we can't predict that either.
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是我们也无法猜测的
09:05
But here are a couple things I can say.
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但是有些事情我能猜测到
09:07
To begin with, it's going to be a society that's way in advance of our own.
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首先，一定存在一个比我们的社会先进很多的另一个社会
09:11
You're not going to hear from alien Neanderthals.
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你不会收到外星人的祖先的来信
09:13
They're not building transmitters.
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他们不会有发报机
09:14
They're going to be ahead of us, maybe by a few thousand
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他们比我们先进很多，也许几千年
09:16
years, maybe by a few millions years, but substantially
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也许几百万年，但总之是
09:19
ahead of us, and that means, if you can understand
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比我们先进，这就意味着如果你能理解
09:21
anything that they're going to say, then you might be able
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他们说的任何事情，你就可能有能力
09:25
to short-circuit history by getting information from a society
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缩短历史进程，因为你从一个先进得多的社会
09:28
that's way beyond our own.
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获取了信息
09:30
Now, you might find that a bit hyperbolic, and maybe it is,
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好吧，你也许觉得有些夸张，也是的确是夸张了一点
09:33
but nonetheless, it's conceivable that this will happen,
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但是无论如何，我们可以想象这是有可能发生的
09:35
and, you know, you could consider this like, I don't know,
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而且你知道，你可以认为就如同
09:38
giving Julius Caesar English lessons and the key
224
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给朱利叶斯·凯撒上英文课，给他
09:40
to the library of Congress.
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议会图书馆的钥匙
09:41
It would change his day, all right?
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这会改变他的时代，对吗？
09:44
That's one thing. Another thing that's for sure
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1995
这是一方面。另一方面肯定会发生的就是
09:46
going to happen is that it will calibrate us.
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这件事会重新校正我们的认知
09:49
We will know that we're not that miracle, right,
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我们会知道我们不是奇迹，是的
09:53
that we're just another duck in a row,
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我们只是队列里的另一只鸭子
09:55
we're not the only kids on the block, and I think that that's
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1995
我们不是小区里仅有的小孩，而我认为
09:57
philosophically a very profound thing to learn.
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这是哲学上一个非常深刻的问题
10:00
We're not a miracle, okay?
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我们不是奇迹，好吗？
10:03
The third thing that it might tell you is somewhat vague,
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第三点有些模糊
10:06
but I think interesting and important,
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但我认识很有趣也很重要
10:08
and that is, if you find a signal coming from a more
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那就是如果你找到一个信号，它来自
10:10
advanced society, because they will be,
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一个更为先进的社会，因为他们一定是
10:12
that will tell you something about our own possibilities,
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你可能会被告知一些我们自己社会发展的可能性
10:15
that we're not inevitably doomed to self-destruction.
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我们并不是不可避免的走向自我毁灭
10:20
Because they survived their technology,
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因为他们在自己的技术中存活了下来
10:22
we could do it too.
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我们一定也可以做到
10:23
Normally when you look out into the universe,
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通常当你仰望星空
10:25
you're looking back in time. All right?
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你是在看向过去，对吗？
10:27
That's interesting to cosmologists.
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这对于宇宙学家来说非常有意思
10:29
But in this sense, you actually can look into the future,
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但如果你找到外星人，你会看见未来
10:33
hazily, but you can look into the future.
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或许有些朦胧，但是会看见未来
10:35
So those are all the sorts of things that would come from a detection.
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所以这些所有的事情都会因为你的发现接踵而来
10:40
Now, let me talk a little bit about something that happens
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现在，让我告诉你们一些
10:43
even in the meantime, and that is,
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正在发生的事情，那就是
10:47
SETI, I think, is important, because it's exploration, and
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SETI，我认为它很重要，因为它在探险
10:52
it's not only exploration, it's comprehensible exploration.
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而且不仅仅是探索，它是在合理的探险
10:54
Now, I gotta tell you, I'm always reading books about
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好了，我必须告诉你们，我总是在读一些
10:57
explorers. I find exploration very interesting,
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关于探险者的书籍，我认为探险非常有趣
11:00
Arctic exploration, you know, people like Magellan,
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北极探险，或者是探险家麦哲伦
11:03
Amundsen, Shackleton, you see Franklin down there,
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阿蒙森，沙克尔顿，还有富兰克林
11:06
Scott, all these guys. It's really nifty, exploration.
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斯科特，所有的这些人都在探险，探险是件很俏皮的事情
11:09
And they're just doing it because they want to explore,
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2239
他们探险只是因为他们想要做这件事
11:11
and you might say, "Oh, that's kind of a frivolous opportunity,"
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2116
你可能会说：”哦，这是一个疯狂的机遇。“
11:13
but that's not frivolous. That's not a frivolous activity,
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但它不是，探险不是一个疯狂的行为
11:17
because, I mean, think of ants.
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2031
想想蚂蚁
11:19
You know, most ants are programmed to follow one another
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1997
大部分蚂蚁都是老老实实跟着前一只
11:21
along in a long line, but there are a couple of ants,
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排成一条长队，但是总有一些蚂蚁
11:23
maybe one percent of those ants, that are what they call
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可能只是百分之一的蚂蚁，就是那些
11:26
pioneer ants, and they're the ones that wander off.
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被称为先锋蚁的那些，它们到处游荡
11:28
They're the ones you find on the kitchen countertop.
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1901
你会在厨房的台面上发现它们
11:30
You gotta get them with your thumb before they
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1998
你必须要用你的大拇指拦住它们
11:32
find the sugar or something.
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以防它们找到糖之类的东西
11:33
But those ants, even though most of them get wiped out,
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2405
但是正是这些蚂蚁，虽然它们大部分都被消灭了
11:36
those ants are the ones that are essential to the survival
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但是它们对于整个蚁群的生存有巨大的作用
11:39
of the hive. So exploration is important.
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所以探险也是同样重要
11:42
I also think that exploration is important in terms of
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我认为探险重要还因为
11:46
being able to address what I think is a critical
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它能够阐述一个我认为社会上普遍存在的
11:51
lack in our society, and that is the lack of science literacy,
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科学素养缺失问题
11:54
the lack of the ability to even understand science.
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就是说人们缺乏理解科学的能力
11:58
Now, look, a lot has been written about the
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2042
好的，让我们看看
12:00
deplorable state of science literacy in this country.
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许多关于我们国家可悲的科学素养的文章
12:03
You've heard about it.
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2552
相信你一定听说过
12:06
Well, here's one example, in fact.
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2052
这儿就有一个例子，事实上
12:08
Polls taken, this poll was taken 10 years ago.
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2319
是一个投票，这个投票是10年前做的
12:10
It shows like roughly one third of the public thinks
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2129
它大致说明了三分之一的人们认为
12:12
that aliens are not only out there, we're looking for them
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1964
外星人不是只存在于外太空的
12:14
out there, but they're here, right?
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有可能我们在外太空寻找他们，但是他们却在这里，对吗？
12:16
Sailing the skies in their saucers and occasionally
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乘坐他们的小飞碟在太空遨游，时不时的
12:18
abducting people for experiments their parents wouldn't approve of.
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绑架一些地球人去做即使是外星人的父母也不会赞同的实验
12:21
Well, that would be interesting if it was true,
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如果这都是真的，那实在很有趣
12:24
and job security for me, but I don't think the evidence is
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即使我会担心我的职业安全, 但我不认为它们会是事实
12:26
very good. That's more, you know, sad than significant.
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这固然令人沮丧，但是并不重要
12:30
But there are other things that people believe
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2019
然而有些事情是人们确信不疑而且
12:32
that are significant, like the efficacy of homeopathy,
289
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很重要的，比如说顺势疗法的疗效
12:35
or that evolution is just, you know, sort of a crazy idea
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3551
或是进化论可能只是失去双腿的科学家
12:39
by scientists without any legs, or, you know, evolution,
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的一个疯狂的念头，或者说进化论
12:42
all that sort of thing, or global warming.
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那一类东西，例如全球变暖之类
12:44
These sorts of ideas don't really have any validity,
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3401
这类想法并没有事实根据
12:48
that you can't trust the scientists.
294
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你不能轻易相信科学家们
12:50
Now, we've got to solve that problem, because that's
295
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2243
现在，我们就要解决这个问题，因为这是
12:52
a critically important problem, and you might say,
296
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4078
一个至关重要的问题，你可能会说
12:56
"Well, okay, how are we gonna solve that problem with SETI?"
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2629
“那好啊，我们怎样用SETI来解决这个问题呢？”
12:59
Well, let me suggest to you that SETI obviously can't
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2399
让我告诉你，SETI显然是不能
13:01
solve the problem, but it can address the problem.
299
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解决这个问题的，但是它可以阐述这个问题
13:03
It can address the problem by getting young people
300
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2943
它可以通过唤起年轻人对科学的热情
13:06
interested in science. Look, science is hard, it
301
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2998
来阐述这个问题。科学并不简单
13:09
has a reputation of being hard, and the facts are, it is hard,
302
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3053
它总是被描述的很难，事实上，它的确很困难
13:12
and that's the result of 400 years of science, right?
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4935
而且他们是400年来积累下来的，对吧？
13:17
I mean, in the 18th century, in the 18th century
304
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2479
在18世纪，
13:19
you could become an expert on any field of science
305
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2590
你可能下午去过一趟图书馆，就有可能
13:22
in an afternoon by going to a library,
306
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2914
成为某一个领域的专家
13:25
if you could find the library, right?
307
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2021
如果你找得到图书馆的话
13:27
In the 19th century, if you had a basement lab,
308
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3616
而在19世纪，如果你有一个地下实验室
13:30
you could make major scientific discoveries
309
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2747
你可能在家里就能
13:33
in your own home. Right? Because there was all this
310
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2225
作出重大的科学发现。对吗？因为那时还有很多
13:35
science just lying around waiting for somebody to pick it up.
311
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2875
科学观点就躺在那儿等待被人发觉
13:38
Now, that's not true anymore.
312
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1593
而现在，这些都不复存在
13:40
Today, you've got to spend years in grad school
313
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2428
如今，你必须作为研究生或是博士后
13:42
and post-doc positions just to figure out what
314
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3498
在研究领域花上数年，只是为了找出
13:46
the important questions are.
315
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2056
什么才是重要的研究课题
13:48
It's hard. There's no doubt about it.
316
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1995
这当然是毋庸置疑的困难
13:50
And in fact, here's an example: the Higgs boson,
317
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2309
事实上，这就有一个例子：
13:52
finding the Higgs boson.
318
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1909
证明希格斯玻色子的存在
13:54
Ask the next 10 people you see on the streets,
319
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1800
如果你去问在街上见到的10个人
13:56
"Hey, do you think it's worthwhile to spend billions
320
824076
2338
“嘿，你觉得花费几十亿瑞士法郎去
13:58
of Swiss francs looking for the Higgs boson?"
321
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2641
研究希格斯玻色子值得吗？”
14:01
And I bet the answer you're going to get, is,
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2321
我打赌你会得到这样的回答
14:03
"Well, I don't know what the Higgs boson is,
323
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1657
“呃，我不知道什么是希格斯玻色子
14:05
and I don't know if it's important."
324
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1232
我也不知道它重不重要。”
14:06
And probably most of the people wouldn't even know
325
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1799
甚至可能大部分人们根本不知道
14:08
the value of a Swiss franc, okay?
326
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瑞士法郎值多少美元！
14:10
And yet we're spending billions of Swiss francs on this problem.
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直到如今我们依然在花费数十亿瑞士法郎去研究它
14:13
Okay? So that doesn't get people interested in science
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明白了吗？这个课题不会引起人们对科学的兴趣
14:15
because they can't comprehend what it's about.
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是因为他们根本不理解它在研究什么
14:17
SETI, on the other hand, is really simple.
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SETI就不一样了，它的概念很简单
14:18
We're going to use these big antennas and we're going to
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我们会用到很大的天线，我们也会
14:20
try to eavesdrop on signals. Everybody can understand that.
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尝试收听各种信号。每个人都能理解我们在做什么
14:23
Yes, technologically, it's very sophisticated,
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没错，技术上来说它还是很复杂
14:25
but everybody gets the idea.
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但是每个人都能明白
14:27
So that's one thing. The other thing is, it's exciting science.
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这是一方面，另一方面则是因为它的研究方向令人兴奋
14:31
It's exciting because we're naturally interested
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我说它令人兴奋是因为我们天生就对
14:33
in other intelligent beings, and I think that's
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其他智能生物感兴趣，而且我认为这正是
14:35
part of our hardwiring.
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我们人类的天性
14:37
I mean, we're hardwired to be interested
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我是说，我们天生会对
14:38
in beings that might be, if you will, competitors,
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那些你也许会说是对手
14:41
or if you're the romantic sort, possibly even mates. Okay?
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浪漫一点也可以说是伙伴感兴趣
14:45
I mean, this is analogous to our interest in things that
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我是说这和我们对有巨大牙齿的生物
14:47
have big teeth. Right?
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感兴趣是类似的，对吗？
14:49
We're interested in things that have big teeth, and you
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我们对有着巨大牙齿的生物感兴趣，而你
14:50
can see the evolutionary value of that, and you can also see
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能看得到进化的价值，你还能通过
14:53
the practical consequences by watching Animal Planet.
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观看动物星球节目了解进化的结果
14:56
You notice they make very few programs about gerbils.
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你发现了吗？他们可没有为长爪沙鼠做多少节目
14:59
It's mostly about things that have big teeth.
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而节目中更多的是有巨大牙齿的动物
15:01
Okay, so we're interested in these sorts of things.
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好了，所以说我们对这些东西感兴趣
15:04
And not just us. It's also kids.
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而且不仅仅是我们，小孩也是一样
15:08
This allows you to pay it forward by using this subject as a
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我们可以利用这个话题来
15:11
hook to science, because SETI involves all kinds of science,
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与科学挂钩，因为SETI显然和
15:14
obviously biology, obviously astronomy,
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生物学和天文学密切相关
15:16
but also geology, also chemistry, various scientific
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还有地理学，化学，各种科学学科
15:20
disciplines all can be presented in the guise of,
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都能被用于这个课题
15:24
"We're looking for E.T."
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“我们在寻找外星人。”
15:25
So to me this is interesting and important, and in fact,
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因此对于我来说，这既有趣又重要，而事实上
15:29
it's my policy, even though I give a lot of talks to adults,
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我的原则就是即使我对成年人演讲比较多
15:33
you give talks to adults, and two days later they're back where they were.
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如果给成年人演讲，两天之后他们就恢复原样
15:35
But if you give talks to kids, you know,
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但如果是对孩子们，那么
15:38
one in 50 of them, some light bulb goes off, and they think,
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50个中会有那么一个会在结束之后想
15:42
"Gee, I'd never thought of that," and then they go,
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“天啊，我从没想过这个问题。”然后他们就
15:44
you know, read a book or a magazine or whatever.
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去读一本书或杂志或其他东西作进一步了解
15:46
They get interested in something.
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他们会开始对某些事情感兴趣
15:48
Now it's my theory, supported only by anecdotal,
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这只是我的理论，只有一些传闻
15:53
personal anecdotal evidence, but nonetheless,
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能够证明，但尽管如此
15:55
that kids get interested in something between the ages
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孩子们在8到11岁的时候的确很容易对事物感兴趣
15:57
of eight and 11. You've got to get them there.
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你一定要把握这一点
16:00
So, all right, I give talks to adults, that's fine, but I try
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好了，我举办成人讲座，这也很好，但是我有试着
16:02
and make 10 percent of the talks that I give,
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把百分之十的讲座
16:05
I try and make those for kids.
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留给孩子们
16:07
I remember when a guy came to our high school, actually,
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我还记得某天一个人来到我们的高中
16:10
it was actually my junior high school. I was in sixth grade.
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那时我还没上高中，我在上六年级
16:13
And he gave some talk. All I remember from it
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然后他给我们演讲。我唯一记得的内容
16:15
was one word: electronics.
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就只有一个词：电子
16:17
It was like Dustin Hoffman in "The Graduate," right,
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就和达斯汀.霍夫曼在电影“毕业生”里一样
16:19
when he said "plastics," whatever that means, plastics.
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当他说“塑料”，无论这个词还有什么别的意思都不重要
16:22
All right, so the guy said electronics. I don't remember
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说回来，那个人说了电子，我不记得
16:24
anything else. In fact, I don't remember anything
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其他的了，事实上，我也不记得
16:26
that my sixth grade teacher said all year,
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2010
我六年级老师一整年说了什么
16:28
but I remember electronics.
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2014
但我记得电子这个词
16:30
And so I got interested in electronics, and you know,
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所以我开始对电子感兴趣
16:32
I studied to get my ham license. I was wiring up stuff.
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我甚至努力学习拿到了业余执照。看，我在连接电路
16:35
Here I am at about 15 or something, doing that sort of stuff.
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那时我15岁左右，一直在做这些事情
16:38
Okay? That had a big effect on me.
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那次演讲对我影响非常大
16:39
So that's my point, that you can have a big effect
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我的重点是说，你们也同样可以对
16:41
on these kids.
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这些孩子产生重大影响
16:44
In fact, this reminds me, I don't know, a couple years ago
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事实上，说到这里我想起几年前
16:47
I gave a talk at a school in Palo Alto
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3326
我去帕洛阿尔托（加州城市）一所学校演讲
16:51
where there were about a dozen 11-year-olds
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2013
来听演讲的是一群11岁左右
16:53
that had come to this talk.
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972
的孩子们
16:54
I had been brought in to talk to these kids for an hour.
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我准备对他们做一小时的演讲
16:56
Eleven-year-olds, they're all sitting in a little semi-circle
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这群11岁的孩子们坐在一起围成一个半圆
16:58
looking up at me with big eyes, and I started,
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2244
睁大眼睛看着我，然后我就开始演讲
17:01
there was a white board behind me, and I started off
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1656
我身后以一张白板，我在上面
17:02
by writing a one with 22 zeroes after it, and I said,
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2838
写下一个1和22个0，我说
17:05
"All right, now look, this is the number of stars
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“看吧，这就是我们能在宇宙里看见
17:07
in the visible universe, and this number is so big
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的星星数量，这个数字太大了
17:10
there's not even a name for it."
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我们都不知道怎样表达它。”
17:14
And one of these kids shot up his hand, and he said,
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然后其中一个孩子举起手来，说
17:16
"Well, actually there is a name for it.
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“事实上他是有名字的，
17:18
It's a sextra-quadra-hexa-something or other." Right?
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他是十的6次方加4次方加16次方。”对吗？
17:21
Now, that kid was wrong by four orders of magnitude,
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虽然这个孩子多说了4个数量级
17:25
but there was no doubt about it, these kids were smart.
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但是毫无疑问，这些孩子们非常聪明
17:27
Okay? So I stopped giving the lecture.
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1968
所以我停止了我的演讲
17:29
All they wanted to do was ask questions.
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因为他们真正想做的是提问
17:32
In fact, my last comments to these kids, at the end I said,
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事实上，我最后对这些孩子们有些评价，我说
17:36
"You know, you kids are smarter
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2032
“你知道吗，你们这些孩子甚至
17:38
than the people I work with." Now — (Laughter)
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比和我一起工作的人们还要聪明。”但是 — （笑声）
17:43
They didn't even care about that.
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他们根本不在乎这个评价
17:44
What they wanted was my email address
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他们只想要知道我的邮箱地址
17:47
so they could ask me more questions. (Laughter)
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来问我更多问题。（笑声）
17:51
Let me just say, look, my job is a privilege
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我们只能说，我的工作算是一种特权
17:54
because we're in a special time.
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因为我们生活在一个特殊的时代
17:55
Previous generations couldn't do this experiment at all.
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以前的人们根本不能做这种实验
17:58
In another generation down the line,
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但是在我们的下一代中
18:00
I think we will have succeeded.
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我想我们会成功的
18:02
So to me, it is a privilege, and when I look in the mirror,
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所以对我来说，我的工作是个特权，而当我照镜子的时候
18:05
the facts are that I really don't see myself.
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我根本看不到我自己
18:08
What I see is the generation behind me.
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我只看得到我身后的这一代人
18:10
These are some kids from the Huff School, fourth graders.
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这是一些来自于Huff小学4年级的学生
18:12
I talked there, what, two weeks ago, something like that.
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大概两周之前我在那里演讲
18:15
I think that if you can instill some interest in science
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我认为如果你能喜爱科学
18:19
and how it works, well, that's a payoff
424
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以及它的运作方式，那么它带来的回报
18:22
beyond easy measure. Thank you very much.
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是无法简单估量的。谢谢大家
18:25
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Seth Shostak - AstronomerSeth Shostak is an astronomer, alien hunter and bulwark of good, exciting science.
Why you should listen
Seth Shostak is the Senior Astronomer at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California. Inspired by a book about the solar system he read at the age of ten, he began his career with a degree in physics from Princeton University and a PhD in astronomy from the California Institute of Technology before working with radio telescopes in the US and the Netherlands to uncover how the universe will end. In 1999, he produced twelve 30-minute lectures on audio-tape and video titled "The Search for Intelligent Life in Space" for the Teaching Company and has hosted SETI’s Big Picture Science podcast since 2002. In 2010, he was elected as a Fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and is the Chair of the International Academy of Astronautics SETI Permanent Study Group. He has published four books, nearly 300 popular articles on astronomy, technology, film and television and gives frequent talks to both young and adult audiences.
Seth Shostak | Speaker | TED.com