TEDGlobal 2007
Euvin Naidoo: Why invest in Africa
Euvin Naidoo:投资非洲
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南非投资银行家尤维恩·奈多解释为什么投资非洲是极具意义的买卖
Euvin Naidoo - Investment banker
As leading advocate for Western Investment into Africa, BCG's Euvin Naidoo works with leading corporations and governments to strengthen trans-Atlantic economic ties. Full bio
As leading advocate for Western Investment into Africa, BCG's Euvin Naidoo works with leading corporations and governments to strengthen trans-Atlantic economic ties. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:26
Welcome to Africa! Or rather, I should say, welcome home.
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欢迎来到非洲！或者我应该说，欢迎回家。
00:30
Because this is where it all really began, isn't it?
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不是吗？此处便是我们的起源地
00:33
Looking at fossils dating back several millions of years --
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从数百万年前的化石
00:36
it all points to evidence that life
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它们是我们在此生活的证据
00:38
for the human species as we know it began right here.
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我们所知道的人类族类均发源于此。
00:44
We are on an amazing journey the next four days.
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下来的四天，我们会有一次激动的旅程
00:48
You're going to hear stories of "Africa: The Next Chapter."
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你们在下来的节目中你们会从其它演讲者听到各种关于非洲的
00:52
Fantastic tales, anecdotes from speakers.
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怪诞的、离奇的故事
00:54
But I want to turn that upside down for a moment,
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但我现在想把顺序颠倒过来，
00:58
and get something out on the table and clear the air so to say.
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让这些故事留着日后再探讨.我们先把一些事情拿到台上谈，消除下我们彼此间的隔阂
01:03
What's the worst thing you've ever heard about Africa?
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好的，那我要问：你们听到关于非洲最糟糕的情况是什么？
01:06
And this is not a rhetorical question.
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这可不是一个反问句哦
01:07
I actually want answers from you.
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我真的希望能听到你们的回答。
01:10
Go for it! The worst.
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继续！最烂的。
01:13
Famine.
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饥荒
01:15
Corruption.
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腐败
01:17
More.
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继续
01:19
Genocide.
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种族灭绝
01:21
AIDS.
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艾滋病
01:24
Slavery.
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奴隶制
01:28
That's enough.
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差不多了
01:30
We've all heard these things.
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我们都听到过了这些东西
01:32
But this is about Africa, the story we have not heard.
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但是关于非洲，那些我们以前没有听到的故事
01:36
The stories that we want to know,
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那些我们想知道的
01:38
and the stories that do exist about positive tales.
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真实存在正面意义的故事
01:42
A part of my talk is going to be about investment opportunities
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也我要讲述的内容
01:46
that exist on this continent,
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关于在这里的投资机会
01:48
to separate the rhetoric from the reality, the fact from the fiction.
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去掉那些粉饰的，虚构的成分
01:52
To go to the actual data and statistics that exist
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获取那些真实的统计数据
01:55
about the actual things that are happening on the ground
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获取那些正在我们身边发生的事实
01:58
that make Africa a realistic investment opportunity and option for you.
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让非洲成为可供你选择的一个投资机会
02:05
So let's get going because Africa,
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选择非洲在于
02:06
to some degree, is on a turnaround.
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某种意义上,这里正处于变革
02:10
A turnaround in terms of how it manages its image,
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这个“变革”依赖于我们如何去理解想象
02:14
and how it takes control of its own destiny.
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如何去把握机遇
02:17
And turnarounds are part and parcel
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“变革”
02:19
of what I have focused on for most of my professional career.
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是我职业生涯中所关注的重要领域
02:23
And it all started almost a decade ago,
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早在10年前
02:26
as a young consultant at McKinsey & Company
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我作为一个年轻的顾问加入到约翰内斯堡城市的麦肯锡
02:28
at their first African office in Johannesburg.
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它是麦肯锡设立在非洲的第一个办公室
02:31
And there we worked with leading CEOs
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在那里我们与企业家领袖一起处理非洲的问题
02:34
on African issues, and African companies on turnarounds,
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以及非洲企业的转型
02:37
making the companies not just the best in Africa
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帮助这些企业成为不仅是非洲
02:40
but the best globally.
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也是全球最好的公司
02:42
But I really formalized this focus on turnarounds
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而我真正的关注到变革这个领域
02:46
when I was completing my MBA in the United States.
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是我在美国刚完成MBA学习的时候
02:49
It all began with a fantastic phone call.
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它由一个神奇的电话开始
02:51
It was from Rosabeth Moss Kanter,
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那个电话来至于罗莎白·默丝·坎特
02:54
Harvard Business School guru and a professor of mine.
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哈弗商学院的领军人物，同时也是我的导师
02:56
And she said, "I want to write a case, Euvin --
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她和我说到“Euvin ,我想写一个案例--
02:59
a case on a public-sector leader
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一个公共事业领域领袖的案例
03:01
that has lessons for the corporate world."
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这个案例将会用于跨国公司的课程
03:05
And the leader that came to mind was Nelson Mandela.
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我当时第一个想到的领导人便是纳尔逊.曼德拉(南非总统）
03:09
Because Nelson Mandela, as he took over power
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因为纳尔逊.曼德拉
03:12
as the first democratically-elected president of South Africa,
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是南非的第一个民选总统
03:15
faced a situation of a country
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上任伊始就面对
03:17
that could have slid into the abyss of chaos.
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一个已经陷入混乱深渊的国家
03:20
But he started the country on a path of a positive cycle.
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但由他开始引领国家走向良性的循环
03:24
Now the case, "Nelson Mandela: Change Leader,"
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现在，这个案例“纳尔逊.曼德拉：变革的领袖”
03:27
became part of the research base for a chapter
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已经成为罗莎白新书的一个章节
03:30
in Rosabeth's new book called "Confidence."
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那本书名为：《信心:创造成功的循环》
03:34
And "Confidence" became a New York Times bestseller
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并且信心:创造成功的循环》一书被列入纽约《Times》商业领域的畅销榜
03:38
and topped Business Week's hardcover bestseller list.
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并位居前列
03:41
And why I tell you this story is because later, when I was interviewed
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为什么我要跟大家讲这故事呢？因为在那之后，我去了SABC面试
03:44
on SABC Africa, on a pan-African broadcast, they asked,
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SABC是一个泛非洲的广播公司，他们问到我
03:47
"What is your key lesson, or the key thing you enjoy the most?" --
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“你在这里面学到了什么？或者你最喜欢的是什么？"
03:51
because it was a huge privilege to be part of such a project.
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对于编写这样一个案例的项目是非常荣耀的事情
03:54
The lesson from that was that it was Africa -- an African story --
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我学到的东西自于非洲，一个非洲的故事。
03:59
that was used to share news with the rest of the world
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然后用它与世界各国分享
04:03
of what the benchmark can be for corporate turnarounds.
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分享公司转型中的基准点是什么
04:06
Africa was being used as a success story!
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非洲已经被作为一个成功的实例
04:11
So I want to share with you a personal story
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我想和大家分享下我个人的故事
04:13
about a turnaround or a transformation.
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一个关于变革或者转变的故事
04:15
And that has to do with me
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这事情就发生在我身上
04:17
because in 1994, I packed a few things into a backpack
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在1994年，我打包收拾我的行李
04:21
and headed off for a year of travel
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并中断学业去周游
04:23
in the middle of my university career.
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那是我大学学业进行一半时候
04:26
You should have seen my parents' reaction!
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你们可以想象我父母的反应！
04:28
(Laughter)
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（笑)
04:29
But very soon, I found myself from the southern part of Africa,
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但很快我一个来至自非洲南部的人--
04:33
in South Africa -- at the very north, in Egypt.
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南非---抵达了非洲的最北端，埃及
04:36
And I sought out the most remote places.
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我拼命的去最远的地方
04:38
I went to the Siwa Oasis. That was one of my stops.
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第一站来到了锡瓦绿洲--我其中的一个落脚点
04:41
And the Siwa Oasis is famous for several things,
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锡瓦绿洲之所以出名有很多因素，
04:43
but the key thing is that it was the place
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但最关键的地方在此处是
04:45
that Alexander the Great went to
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亚历山大帝
04:48
when he wanted to find out what his destiny had in store for him.
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来过此处寻找他的神谕
04:51
And legend has it that Alexander trekked through this desert.
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传说中，亚历山大长途跋涉的穿越沙漠
04:54
Half his battalion was wiped out in the sandstorm.
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一半的军队在沙尘爆覆没
04:57
And myth says that he had an audience with the oracle,
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在神话中，亚历山大得到神谕
05:00
and it foretold his destiny of greatness.
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表明它是命中注定的君主（君权神受）
05:03
This was 300 BC.
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这是公元300年前
05:05
So Africa had long been seen as a place to go to for answers.
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因此非洲在自古以来就是一个寻找答案的地方
05:11
Now, the thing I remember about Siwa
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现在，我能想起关于锡瓦的
05:14
was the magical view of the sky at night.
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就是它迷人夜色天空
05:17
With no natural light source, Siva is one of these amazing places
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没有非自然的光源，锡瓦就是这样一个迷人的地方
05:20
that when you look up you see a perfect tapestry.
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一抬头就看到天空如锦画一般
05:24
Fast forward to 2002.
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到了2002年
05:26
I'm sitting in Cambridge, Massachusetts
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我来到马萨诸州的剑桥
05:28
at the Healthcare Development Conference.
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参加一个保健发展的会议
05:30
And I see the same picture, but from the opposite side.
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我看到了类似的景色，不过那是相反的景色
05:33
A satellite picture looking down at the earth.
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这是一张从卫星上观测地球的图像
05:38
And it was that picture that made such a profound impact on me
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那张图片深深震撼了我
05:41
because I'll never forget it. I remember the very moment.
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以致于让我无法忘怀。那一刻便记住了
05:44
And I wanted to share that image with you of what I saw at that point.
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和大家分享下在那一刻我看到了什么样的景色
05:50
The first thing that I saw was North America at night --
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第一个图片是我看到的北美的夜色---
05:55
glowing, in all its glory. A warm feeling. Light.
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灯火通明，暖洋洋的灯光
06:05
And then I saw it -- Africa. Quite literally the "Dark Continent."
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然后我看到---非洲。毫不夸张的“黑暗大陆”（非洲的代称）。
06:15
And while Africa may be dark,
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那一刻非洲是黑暗的
06:17
the thing that brought the message home to me
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它给清楚说明的表明一个信息
06:20
was that this is the challenge we are facing,
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也是我们正在面临的挑战
06:23
but it's also the opportunity.
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但同时也是机会
06:26
Because whilst Africa may be dark -- other than the few specks
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因为尽管非洲可能是黑暗的--相对于
06:29
that exist north and in the south and other areas --
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它的北面、南面或者地区上的其它地方---
06:33
it's aglow with the light in the hearts
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相对于那些灯火通明的核心地区
06:35
of the millions of people that are there.
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的成千上万的人民
06:37
Entrepreneurs, dynamic people, people with hope.
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企业家，精力充沛的人，充满希望的人
06:41
It was George Kimble, the geographer, who said
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正如乔治.金布尔,一个地理学家所说
06:44
that, "The only thing dark about Africa is our ignorance of it."
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“我们觉得非洲只有黑色的，根源是我们的无知”
06:49
So let's start shedding light on this amazing eclectic continent
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让我们开始照亮这片土地
06:53
that has so much to offer.
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虽然光已很多了
06:55
Let's start unpacking it.
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我们开始解构。
07:00
Africa is the second-largest continent, a landmass second from Asia.
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非洲是世界上第二大洲，一个仅次于亚洲的第二大个大陆。
07:07
It also is the second most populated continent,
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是世界上第二大人口的地区
07:09
with 900 million people.
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拥有9亿人口
07:11
In fact -- coming back to the land mass -- Africa is so big
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事实上，从大陆面积看---非洲如此之大以至
07:14
that you could fit in the continental United States,
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可以把美国，
07:17
China, and the entire Europe into Africa, and still have space.
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中国，还有整个欧洲塞在这里，依然还有空间
07:22
Africa is home to over 1,000 languages --
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非洲是一个有超过1000种语言的家庭--
07:25
2,000 is another estimate that's out there --
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也有人估计
07:28
with over 2,000 languages and dialects.
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有超过2000种语言和方言
07:31
But you could say, "Invest in Africa in over 1,000 languages,
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你可能说“投资在非洲这样超过1000种语言的地方，
07:35
and it wouldn't make a difference."
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根本没有什么效果
07:38
What does the data say?
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但数据又是怎么说的？
07:40
As an investment banker, I'm in the cross-flow of information
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作为一个银行家，我总处于各种交错的信息中
07:44
and the changes that are taking place in capital markets.
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处于瞬息万变资本市场
07:47
So I want to share with you some of these bellwether signals, or signs,
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我想和你们分享下这些变革前的预兆，或者说信号
07:50
and winds of change that are sweeping this continent.
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也可以说是改革的风向
07:52
So let's start on that.
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我们就从这里谈起
07:54
And let's start at the high level, on the macro-factors.
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以一个高层次的宏观因素入手
07:56
Inflation, in general, is coming down across Africa --
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一般的，整个非洲的通货膨胀都在下降
07:59
that's the first sign --
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这是第一个信号--
08:01
in many countries reaching double-digit figures.
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在很多国家已经达到两位数的通货膨胀
08:03
So let's start looking at some of those.
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我们在看看这些国家
08:05
I call it my Z.E.N. cluster.
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我称它们为：Z.E.N群集
08:07
Zambia: from 2004 to 2006, moves from the 18 percent in inflation
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赞比亚：从2004年到2006年，通货膨胀由18%
08:12
to the nine percent.
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降低到9%
08:14
Egypt: from the 16 percent to about 8.4 percent.
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埃及：由16%降低到8.4%
08:19
Nigeria: a similar situation,
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尼日利亚,情况相同
08:21
from the 16 percent to the eight percent. Single digits.
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从16降低到8%
08:27
More fascinating, you have other countries -- South Africa,
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更有意思的是，其它的国家如南非，
08:31
Mauritius, Namibia -- all in single digits.
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毛里求斯,纳米比亚--都处在个位数中
08:38
But that's just part of the story. You have a similar trend with currencies --
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这只是故事的一部分。类似的还有货币--
08:41
currencies going through an extreme time of stability.
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货币已经度过了极端的时期慢慢趋于平稳.
08:47
But that's looking at the big picture.
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不过这只是在全局上看到的
08:49
And the first myth to dispel is that Africa is not a country.
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同时，在第一个观念，非洲并不是一个国家.
08:55
It's made up --
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非洲只是一个统称--
08:57
(Applause)
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（鼓掌)
08:58
It's made up of 53 different countries.
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它是由53个不同的国家组成.
09:02
So the very definition -- to say "invest in Africa" is a no-go.
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因此可以肯定是---称"投资非洲"完全不合适.
09:06
It's meaningless.
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也无意义。
09:08
Each country has a unique value proposition.
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因为每个国家有自己独立的主张。
09:11
You can make money, you can lose money in Africa.
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你可以在非洲赚到钱，也可能赔钱。
09:14
But opportunities, boy oh boy, they exist.
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但是机会，大家伙啊，大家伙，机会可是存在的.
09:17
And this is what today is about --
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这就是我们今天要探讨的--
09:20
it's about discussing those very opportunities.
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探讨这些机会。
09:24
So let's start getting into the countries
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好的，我们开始看这些国家的
09:26
and into the specific material and data.
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用数据、材料来说
09:31
I was recently elected, as Emeka mentioned,
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我最近被推选为
09:33
as the President of the South African Chamber of Commerce in America.
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北美非洲商会的会长。
09:36
And I'm very proud and happy to be in that role
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能当选我很荣幸，也很光荣.
09:39
because it is a fascinating position to be in.
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因为它是一个吸引人的角色.
09:41
To hear this dialogue that's just increasing in tenor and velocity,
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我说这些话只是想促进那些
09:45
of decisions about trade and companies wanting to come.
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想来非洲发展的公司
09:49
So the first port of call: let's talk a little bit about South Africa.
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第一个我们先来谈点关于南非的事情
09:51
But not the South Africa we always talk about --
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但不是关于我们经常谈论到的南非---
09:53
the gold, the minerals, the First World infrastructure --
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那些黄金、矿物和基础设施建设
09:56
a bit about the other side of it.
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谈的是与这些无关的东西
09:58
For example, South Africa was recently voted as the top destination
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例如：南非现在被1000个英国公司评选为
10:02
for the top 1,000 UK companies for offshore call-centers.
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最佳呼叫离岸呼叫中心.
10:06
Same language, timeline, et cetera. Makes sense.
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相同的语言、时区等等。这毫无疑问。
10:11
Other headlines that have recently reached South Africa
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最近南非的头条新闻是
10:13
were Bain Capital and KKR, the big boys of private equity.
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私募领域大老的贝恩资本和KKR资本抵达南非
10:18
Headline in South Africa: "They have landed." Quite ominous.
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南非的新闻头条是：“狼来了！”非常悲观
10:21
But what were they there for? To acquire assets.
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但他们去哪里干嘛呢？为了获得资产
10:25
Bing Capital's acquisition of Edcon, a large retailer, is testimony
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获取Edcon公司的股份，Edcon是当地一家很大的零售商
10:32
to the confidence they are starting to place in the economy.
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这些事实表明他们开启了它们的商业进程
10:35
Because it is actually a long-term play.
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因为这是一个真正的长期投资
10:37
Being a retailer, it is a play on the belief
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作为一个零售商，它坚信
10:39
that this middle-class that's growing will continue to grow,
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一个中产阶层的数目会持续增加
10:43
that the boom and the confidence in consumer spending will continue.
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相信消费者的信心会增加
10:49
But the story of Africa, and my focus, is beyond South Africa
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但是关于非洲，我关注的领域。远不止南非，
10:54
because there's so much happening.
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因为那么有太多这样正在发生的事情
10:56
Undoubtedly, Nigeria is clearly a hot spot.
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毫无疑问，尼日利亚是一个明显的热点。
11:00
Challenges -- and we will hear a lot about Nigeria in these four days.
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挑战--下来四天我们将会听到更多多关于尼日利亚的事情。
11:04
But looking at Goldman Sachs' work -- we had the famous BRIC Report.
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但看看高盛投资做的工作---我们有著名的“金砖四国”的报告。
11:09
The new report, "The Next Eleven," highlights that by 2020
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最新的报告，“N-11”，凸显出2020年
11:13
Nigeria is going to be amongst the top 10 economies in the world.
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尼日利亚会成为世界前10内的经济体。
11:17
It's an investment opportunity. Think about that.
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这是一个投资机会，考虑下
11:21
Is anyone -- our banks, our investors --
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有没有人--我们的银行家，我们的投资者---
11:24
seriously thinking about going to Nigeria?
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认真考虑去尼日利亚呢？
11:25
If you haven't, why not?
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如果你还没有，这又为什么呢？
11:27
What's going on in Nigeria? A couple of things.
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尼日利亚正在发生什么事情？很多。
11:31
I want to talk about it from the perspective of capital markets.
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我想从资本市场的角度上谈论这个
11:35
Bellwether signs again.
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接着从领先企业的信号来看看
11:38
Guarantee Trust Bank recently issued the first Euro Bond
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信托担保银行最近发行第一个欧洲债券
11:42
out of Africa, and this excludes South Africa.
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在非洲之外，但不包括南非
11:45
But the first Eurobond, the raising of international capital
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第一个欧洲债券，促使了国际离岸资本
11:48
offshore, off its own balance sheet,
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摆脱了它们自己的收支平衡，
11:51
without any sovereign backing --
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没有任何主权国家担保
11:53
that is an indication of the confidence that is taking place in that economy.
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这是一个经济领域发生的迹象
11:57
Without any sovereign backing,
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没有任何主权国家担保
11:59
a Nigerian company raising capital offshore.
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一个尼日利亚公司募集到了资金
12:01
It's just a sign of things to come.
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它仅仅是一个将要发生变化的信号
12:02
Looking at the oil industry, Africa provides 18 percent
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再看一看石油行业，非洲提供了18%
12:07
of the U.S.'s oil supply, with the Middle East just 16 percent.
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的美国石油供应量，而中东仅仅是16%
12:11
It's an important strategic partner.
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它是一个很重要的战略伙伴
12:13
Let's put Nigeria in perspective.
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我们全面的看下尼日利亚
12:15
2.2 to 2.4 million barrels of oil a day --
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每天220～240万桶的石油
12:18
the same league as Kuwait, the same league as Venezuela.
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与科威特、委内瑞拉相同
12:23
But with Africa, let's start being careful about this.
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但在非洲，我们开始谨慎对待这个事情
12:26
And Emeka and I have had these discussions.
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Emeka和我曾经讨论过这个事情
12:28
We have to move away from what's called "the curse of the commodities."
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我们不得不离开被称为“日用品的诅咒”
12:32
Because it's not about oil, it's not about commodities.
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因为它无关于石油，无关于日用品
12:34
For Africa to truly be sustainable,
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对非洲而言真的需要可持续性
12:36
we have to move beyond to other industries.
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我们必须跨出到其他行业
12:39
So let's unpack those very quickly,
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我们也将会很快的摆脱掉
12:41
and I'm going to move through these very, very, very fast
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而我自己也正在快速的撤离这个领域
12:43
because I can see that clock counting down.
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因为我已经看到了开始在倒计时了
12:47
What else is going on there? Egypt.
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下来还要谈的是哪个国家？埃及
12:50
Egypt is launching a first large industrial zone --
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埃及是一个正在腾飞的大的工业区域
12:53
2.8 billion investment.
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2.8亿的投资
12:55
The announcement just came out the last few weeks.
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上周刚刚公布的消息
12:57
Close to the Mediterranean, near Alexandria --
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在靠近地中海，亚历山大市附近
13:01
textiles, petrochemicals.
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纺织品，石化
13:03
It's being managed by a Singaporean-based management company.
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正被一个新加坡公司所控制
13:07
So they want to emerge as an industrial powerhouse
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他们想成为一个工业大国
13:10
across the industries -- away from oil.
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拥有各个行业---以摆脱石油
13:12
Let's look at agriculture. Let's look at forestry.
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再看一看农业，我们看下森林
13:15
What's going on there?
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那里又在发生什么？
13:16
In Tanzania last week, we had the launch
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坦桑尼亚上一周颁布
13:20
of the East African Organic Produce Standard.
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东非有机产品标准
13:24
Again, gathering together farmers, gathering together stakeholders
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在东非，农场主和利益相关者再一次团结起来
13:29
in East Africa to get standards for organic produce. Better prices.
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以达到有机农产品的标准。因为可以卖出更好的价钱。
13:36
It ties in with small-scale farmers
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这与小规模的农场主一致
13:39
in terms of no pesticides, no fertilizers.
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在标准的条款中，无农药，无杀虫剂。
13:44
Again, opportunity to tackle markets to get that higher price.
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再一次，机会在于满足市场需求
13:49
Uganda: the New Forest Company,
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乌干达:新的森林公司
13:51
replanting and redeveloping their forests. Why is that important?
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重新耕作和开发他们的森林。为什么要这么做呢？
13:57
As the energy needs are met and electricity is needed [we will need]
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用来满足能源和电力的需求
14:00
poles for rolling out electricity.
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用于延伸电网的电线杆
14:02
But here is the sweetener in the deal.
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但这只是整个生意里面的一丁点
14:04
They're going to be tapping into carbon credits.
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他们打算进一步深入挖掘碳排放信用额
14:08
Let's go back to Nigeria.
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我们再回过来看看尼日利亚
14:10
The banking sector has undergone tremendous transformation,
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银行业发生巨大的蜕变
14:13
from over 80 banks to 25 banks. Strengthening of the system.
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从80家银行到25家，虽然巩固了整个系统
14:18
But what's going on there? Only 10 percent of the country is banked.
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但那将会发生什么呢？整个国家只有10%的地方有银行
14:23
The largest population in Africa is in Nigeria.
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尼日利亚是非洲人口最多的国家
14:26
135 million-plus people. Think about that.
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超过1.35亿的人口，想像下
14:30
There are only 700 ATMs in the country. Opportunity.
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整个国家只有700台ATM取款机。机会！
14:35
The same for telecoms across the country.
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对于整个国家的通讯也是如此
14:38
Now let's look at the continent as a whole.
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我们来整体看看非洲大陆
14:40
People look at the roads, for example, and they'd say,
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人们一看到马路，比如，就会说到
14:42
"Angola: 90 percent of roads are untarred. Ah, problem!"
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"安哥拉：90%的马路没有沥青，哦，真糟糕！”
14:49
It's more expensive to transport goods. Prices of goods go up,
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对于运输货物来讲，价格就会飙升上去。
14:52
inflation is affected.
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然后导致通货膨胀
14:54
Nigeria: 70 percent of roads are untarred. Zambia: 80 percent.
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尼日利亚：70%的马路没有沥青。赞比亚：80%
14:57
In general, more than 50 percent of roads are untarred.
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大部分情况，超过50%的马路没有沥青。
15:00
This is an opportunity! Energy needs -- it's an opportunity.
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这是一个机会！能源需求--一个机会
15:05
So what are the signs that things are fundamentally changing?
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那么从正在根本性转变中的信号是什么呢？
15:08
Let's look at the stock markets in Africa.
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我们看看非洲的股票交易市场吧
15:11
If I had to ask you, "In 2005 what was the best performing stock market
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如果我问你，“2005年中，全世界表现最好的股票市场
15:15
or stock exchange in the world?" Would Egypt come to mind?
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或者期货市场在哪里？”你能想到是埃及吗？
15:20
In 2005, the Egyptian stock exchange returned over 145 percent.
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在2005年，埃及股市--股票交易所--回报率超过145%
15:28
What's going on in some of the other countries?
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而同期在其它国家呢？
15:30
Let's look at some 2006 numbers. Kenya: over 60 percent. Nigeria: over 40 percent.
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我们再看看2006年的数字。肯尼亚：超过60%。尼日利亚：超过40%
15:37
South Africa: in the 20 percents. High ones.
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南非：20%。这都是比较高的数字。
15:40
These are the trends that are taking place.
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这就是正在发生的趋势
15:46
But in any investment decision, the key question is,
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在任何投资决策中，有一个关键的问题就是，
15:50
"What is my alternative investment?"
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"什么是我的另类投资？"
15:53
Because in Africa today, we are competing globally for capital.
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因为今日的非洲，我们和全球的资本市场竞争。
15:57
And global capital is agnostic -- it has no loyalties.
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同时全球的资本不可知--因为他没有特许费
16:02
There's an overhang of capital in the U.S., and the key is yield pickup.
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美国则是资本过剩，问题出在收益率上。
16:06
What Africa is providing is a diversification play,
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非洲能提供多元化的组合
16:09
and also opportunities for yield pickup for the investor
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以给投资者提高收益率
16:11
that's aware of what he or she is doing.
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能够意识到他或者她正在做什么
16:15
Now, when looking at Africa vis-a-vis other things,
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好的，我们拿非洲和其它地方向比较
16:17
and countries in Africa vis-a-vis other things,
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也拿非洲中的国家进行比较
16:19
comparisons become important.
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对比显得很重要
16:21
10 years ago there, were very few countries
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10年以前，我们只有少数的国家
16:24
that received sovereign ratings from
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能够获得
16:25
the Standard & Poors, Moody's and Fitch's.
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标准普尔，穆迪还有惠誉的独立评级
16:28
Today, 16 African countries and growing
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今天，已有16个非洲的国家
16:32
have sovereign country ratings. What does this mean?
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获得国家评级，这又意味着什么？
16:35
Take Nigeria again: double B-minus --
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再以尼日利亚为例：它得到
16:38
in the league of Ukraine and Turkey. Immediately we have a comparison.
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乌克兰和土耳其的两个B-.很快我们就有个对比
16:43
The backbone of making investment decisions
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为全球主流金融资本持有者
16:46
for global holders of capital.
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提供投资决策参考
16:48
Some other figures. South Africa: triple B-plus. Botswana: A-plus.
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也有人指出。南非：3 个B-.波扎那:A-+
16:55
Bakino Faso: B-minus. And so on.
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布基纳法索:B-等等
16:58
In fact, one of the big agencies is setting up an office in Africa.
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实际上，全球最大的一个经纪公司正在非洲设立办公室
17:03
Why are they doing that? Because they expect investment to follow.
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他们为什么要这么做？因为他们想跟进投资。
17:09
So one of the big bellwethers,
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其中一个带头大哥
17:11
and one of my final points I want to mention, is
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也就是我最后一个想提及的，也是
17:14
the interesting thing I read is that CNBC
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我认为最有意思的：CNBC（美国全国广播公司财经频道)
17:16
has launched their first African channel. Why is CNBC doing this?
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已经启动第一个非洲频道。CNBC为什么要这么做？
17:21
It's the 24-hour rolling African news channel.
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它是一个24小时滚动播放非洲新闻的频道
17:25
They're doing it because they are expecting things to happen.
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之所以这么做他们期待大事件发生
17:28
Me and you, the investments we are going to be making,
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我还有你，我们这些做投资的人
17:32
the investments the world is going to be making --
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还有全世界在做投资的人
17:33
that's the 24-hour news channel dedicated to Africa.
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从那里可以得到24小时的非洲新闻
17:37
So that's the change that's coming down the pipeline.
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这就是变化，从头到尾的变化
17:42
So in conclusion, I want to turn back to that very slide
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最后，我想简单回顾下
17:47
that made such a deep impact on me all those years ago.
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这些年来对我深远影响的事情
17:52
This time [I'll] give you the entire picture that I saw in 2002,
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这一次我给你们看看我在2002年所看到的完整张图片
17:58
and ask you that when you think about what your role can be in Africa,
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也问下你什么时候你也考虑下自己在非洲可以是什么角色
18:03
think about your journey in terms of bringing light to this continent.
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思考下你的旅途是否给这篇大陆带来光明
18:07
Because there are amazing opportunities available.
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因为这里有太多惊人的机会
18:10
And think about the concept of transformation
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也思考下变革的概念
18:12
in the back of your mind
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印在你的脑海里
18:14
because things can be turned around rather quickly.
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因为有些事情很难一下转变过来
18:18
In 1899, Joseph Conrad released "The Heart of Darkness,"
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1989年，约瑟夫·康拉德发行了《黑暗之心》一书
18:25
a tale of grim horror along the Congo River.
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一个冷酷的英雄在刚果河的故事
18:32
If one looks carefully, on the Congo River
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假如有人注意到的话，刚果河
18:37
is one of those bright lights. And that's the very Congo river
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也是带来光亮的。这是真正的刚果河
18:41
generating light -- the old heart of darkness
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发出光--那古老的黑暗之心--
18:44
now generating light with hydro-electric power.
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正在利用水来发电
18:47
That is a transformation in power of ideas.
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这也是一个转换电力的看法
18:50
So the next step, over the next four days,
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到下一阶段，接下来的四天里
18:52
is us exploring more of these ideas.
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我们会探讨更多这样的想法
18:55
And perchance, if you can always keep this picture in your mind,
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或许，如果你能保存这张图片在你的大脑中
18:58
that when we convene maybe in the distant future, in 2020,
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不久的将来，到2020年我们再次相聚
19:03
that picture will look very different.
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这个图片将会看起来非常不同
19:05
Thank you.
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谢谢
19:07
(Applause)
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(掌声)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Euvin Naidoo - Investment bankerAs leading advocate for Western Investment into Africa, BCG's Euvin Naidoo works with leading corporations and governments to strengthen trans-Atlantic economic ties.
Why you should listen
Euvin Naidoo wants to change your mind about Africa. A partner in BCG's Johannesburg office, Naidoo is armed with facts, figures and a forward-looking outlook to convey a nuanced picture of a continent that's large, diverse and full of potential, with stabilizing economies and business growth. Speaking at TED in a personal capicity, he offers persuasive reasons why the continent's challenges should be reframed as opportunities, and why investing in Africa can make great business sense. A third-generation South African, Naidoo was selected by Forbes in 2011 onto their Top 10 Most Powerful and Influential Men under Forty in Africa list, and in 2009 was seleted as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. Naidoo holds an MBA from Harvard, where he served on the Board of Admissions. He previously served as President and CEO of the South African Chamber of Commerce in America (SACCA), a position which allowed him to promote entrepreneurship and business investment throughout Africa.
Euvin Naidoo | Speaker | TED.com