TEDGlobal 2013
Annette Heuser: The 3 agencies with the power to make or break economies
安妮特·霍泽尔: 成败经济的三巨头
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评级机构改革者安妮特·霍泽尔声称，现有的评估国民经济的方式大错特错。借助模糊且不为人知的方法，三家美国私人信用评级机构主宰全球国民经济的评判，而这或将带来严重后果。然而假如有其他的方式呢？霍泽尔和我们分享她的愿景：一家非盈利性评级机构，为评级领域注入公平与正义。
Annette Heuser - Rating agency reformer
Annette Heuser proposes critical reforms to loosen the iron grip of rating agencies on national credit scores. Full bio
Annette Heuser proposes critical reforms to loosen the iron grip of rating agencies on national credit scores. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Almost two years ago,
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大约两年前
00:14
I was driving in my car in Germany,
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我在德国开车的时候
00:16
and I turned on the radio.
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打开了收音机
00:19
Europe at the time was in the middle
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当时的欧洲
00:21
of the Euro crisis,
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正处于欧债危机当中
00:22
and all the headlines were about European countries
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所有报纸上的头版头条
00:27
getting downgraded by rating agencies
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都是欧洲国家
00:30
in the United States.
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被美国评级机构降级的消息
00:31
I listened and thought to myself,
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我边听边想
00:34
"What are these rating agencies,
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这些评级机构是做什么的
00:36
and why is everybody so upset about their work?"
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为什么大家都因为他们的工作感到沮丧
00:39
Well, if you were sitting
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其实如果当时
00:41
next to me in the car that day
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你坐在我车里的副驾上
00:43
and would have told me that I would devote
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你肯定会告诉我
00:45
the next years to trying to reform them,
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我将在未来几年中致力于评级机构的改革
00:49
obviously I would have called you crazy.
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当然 我会说那是疯狂的想法
00:53
But guess what's really crazy:
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但你猜真正疯狂的是什么
00:55
the way these rating agencies are run.
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这些评级机构的运作模式
00:58
And I would like to explain to you
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我今天要和你们探讨的不仅是
00:59
not only why it's time to change this,
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为什么我们要在现在进行改革
01:01
but also how we can do it.
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还要讨论怎样进行改革
01:04
So let me tell you a little bit
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先来说说
01:06
about what rating agencies really do.
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评级机构到底都做什么
01:10
As you would read a car magazine
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你一般会先看看汽车杂志
01:12
before purchasing a new car
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再去买新车
01:14
or taking a look at a product review
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或者是先浏览产品评价
01:16
before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get,
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再决定到底买哪种平板电脑或手机
01:20
investors are reading ratings
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投资者们则是先看评级
01:22
before they decide in which kind of product
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再决定
01:25
they are investing their money.
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把钱投向哪种产品
01:27
A rating can range from a so-called AAA,
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评级范围包括
01:30
which means it's a top-performing product,
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从最顶尖的AAA
01:33
and it can go down to the level
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到最差的垫底级别
01:36
of the so-called BBB-,
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也就是BBB-
01:39
which means it's a fairly risky investment.
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也就是说这是一项非常冒险的投资
01:42
Rating agencies are rating companies.
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评级机构的评级对象包括
01:45
They are rating banks.
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公司、银行
01:46
They are rating even financial products
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甚至是金融产品
01:48
like the infamous mortgage-backed securities.
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比如说名声不怎么好的按揭证券
01:51
But they can also rate countries,
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但评级对象还包括国家
01:54
and these ratings are called sovereign ratings,
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这种评级叫做主权信用评级
01:56
and I would like to focus in particular
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今天我就想主要讲一讲
01:59
on these sovereign ratings.
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这些主权信用评级
02:01
And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,
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我敢说，在座的各位听众
02:04
you're thinking,
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肯定有人在想
02:05
so why should I really care about this, right?
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主权信用评级关我什么事？
02:08
Be honest.
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肯定有人在这么想
02:09
Well, ratings affect you.
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其实 主权信用评级对你有影响
02:12
They affect all of us.
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对我们所有人都有影响
02:14
If a rating agency rates a country,
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一家评级机构对国家进行评级
02:17
it basically assesses and evaluates
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主要是评判
02:20
a country's debt
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一个国家的债务状况
02:22
and the ability and willingness of a country
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及其履行偿债责任的
02:24
to repay its debt.
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信用意愿与信用能力
02:26
So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency,
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所以如果某国主权信用评级下降
02:29
the country has to pay more
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那么这个国家
02:31
in order to borrow money
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在国际市场借债
02:33
on the international markets.
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则需支出更多成本
02:35
So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer,
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所以作为公民和纳税人的你当然受到影响
02:37
because you and your fellow countrymen
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因为你和你的同胞们不得不付出
02:40
have to pony up more in order to borrow.
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更高昂的贷款利息支出
02:44
But what if a country can't afford to pay more
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但如果一个国家负担不起
02:46
because it's maybe too expensive?
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太过高昂的借贷成本怎么办
02:49
Well, then the country has less available
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那么这个国家只能削减服务
02:52
for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare.
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比如道路、学校、医疗
02:56
And this is the reason why you should care,
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所以你必须要关注这个问题
02:58
because sovereign ratings affect everyone.
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因为主权信用评级影响每一个人
03:01
And that is the reason why I believe
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这正因如此，我认为
03:03
they should be defined as public goods.
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应将其定义为公共财产
03:06
They should be transparent, accessible,
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透明的、可获取的
03:09
and available to everyone at no cost.
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免费面向所有人
03:13
But here's the situation:
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但现在的情况是
03:15
the rating agency market is dominated
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评级机构市场
03:17
by three players and three players only --
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被三家机构垄断
03:20
Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch --
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标普、穆迪和惠誉
03:23
and we know whenever there
is a market concentration,
is a market concentration,
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众所周知，当市场集中度走高
03:26
there is really no competition.
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就不会有竞争
03:28
There is no incentive to improve
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从而也就不会有诱因
03:30
the quality of your product.
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鼓励大家提高产品质量
03:33
And let's face it, the credit rating
agencies have contributed,
agencies have contributed,
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我们只能面对现实
03:37
putting the global economy on the brink,
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信用评级机构把全球经济推向边缘
03:40
and yet they have to change the way they operate.
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然而他们必须要改变其运作方式
03:43
The second point,
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第二点我要说的是
03:45
would you really buy a car
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你买车的时候
03:47
just based on the advice of the dealer?
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难道是经销商说了算吗
03:51
Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible.
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明显不是。那是不负责任的做法
03:54
But that's actually what's going on
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但事实上现在就是这样
03:56
in the rating agency sector every single day.
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评级行业每天都是如此
04:00
The customers of these rating agencies,
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这些评级机构的客户
04:03
like countries or companies,
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比如说国家 或公司
04:06
they are paying for their own ratings,
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他们付费从而获得评级
04:08
and obviously this is creating
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很明显
04:10
a conflict of interest.
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这其中存在利益冲突
04:13
The third point is,
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我要讲的第三点是
04:15
the rating agencies are not really telling us
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评级机构并没有向我们展示
04:18
how they are coming up with their ratings,
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他们评级的方法和过程
04:21
but in this day and age,
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但在如今这个年代
04:23
you can't even sell a candy bar
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你如果不清清楚楚列出其成分
04:25
without listing everything that's inside.
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连一块糖都别想卖出去
04:28
But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy,
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但就评级来讲
04:31
we really do not know
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经济中如此重要的一个元素
04:33
what all the different ingredients are.
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我们并不知道其工作方法过程
04:36
We are allowing the rating agencies
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我们允许评级机构
04:37
to be intransparent about their work,
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工作的不透明性
04:40
and we need to change this.
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我们现在需要改变
04:42
I think there is no doubt that the sector
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毫无疑问，我认为
04:45
needs a complete overhaul,
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评级领域需要彻底改革
04:46
not just a trimming at the margins.
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绝不仅仅是小打小闹
04:49
I think it's time for a bold move.
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是时候采取大动作了
04:51
I think it's time to upgrade the system.
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是时候进行改善升级了
04:54
And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation
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正因如此，贝塔斯曼基金会
04:57
have invested a lot of time and effort
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投入大量时间和精力
05:00
thinking about an alternative for the sector.
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探索如何对评级行业进行改革
05:03
And we have developed the first model
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我们已经建立了一个全新模式
05:06
for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk,
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一个非营利性的主权信用评级机构
05:11
and we call it by its acronym, INCRA.
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其缩写是INCRA
05:16
INCRA would make a difference
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INCRA 将会
05:17
to the current system
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改变现行机制
05:19
by adding another nonprofit player to the mix.
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将非盈利性机构加入现有的组合
05:24
It would be based on a nonprofit model
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INCRA 基于非盈利性模式
05:27
that would be based on a sustainable endowment.
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会有持续不断的款项为其奠定基础
05:31
The endowment would create income
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这些款项将为其运营者们
05:33
that would allow us to run the operation,
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带来收入
05:35
to run the rating agency,
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保证评级机构的运营管理
05:37
and it would also allow us
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同时还能够保证
05:39
to make our ratings publicly available.
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我们提供的评级公开可用
05:43
But this is not enough to make a difference, right?
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但仅凭这些尚且无法实现大转变
05:45
INCRA would also be based on
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INCRA还将基于
05:47
a very, very clear governance structure
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一个十分明确的管理结构
05:50
that would avoid any conflict of interest,
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避免利益冲突
05:53
and it would include many stakeholders from society.
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涵盖社会各界的利益攸关者
05:58
INCRA would not only be a European
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INCRA 将不仅仅是欧洲的
06:00
or an American rating agency,
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或者美国的评级机构
06:02
it would be a truly international one,
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它将切实成为全球性的机构
06:05
in which, in particular, the emerging economies
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尤其是考虑到新兴经济体
06:08
would have an equal interest,
voice and representation.
voice and representation.
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他们将享有平等的利益、话语权和代表权
06:13
The second big difference that INCRA would make is
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INCRA 要实现的第二大转变是
06:16
that would it base its sovereign risk assessment
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其主权信用风险评判
06:19
on a broader set of indicators.
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将基于一系列更广泛的指标
06:22
Think about it that way.
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想想看
06:24
If we conduct a sovereign rating,
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如果我们进行主权信用评级
06:26
we basically take a look at
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我们基本上是要看
06:27
the economic soil of a country,
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一个国家的经济土壤
06:30
its macroeconomic fundamentals.
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其宏观经济的基本面
06:33
But we also have to ask the question,
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但我们也必须考虑一个问题
06:35
who is cultivating the economic soil
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谁在培育这个国家的经济土壤
06:38
of a country, right?
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是不是？
06:40
Well, a country has many gardeners,
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事实上 一个国家有许多位园艺大师
06:42
and one of them is the government,
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其中之一 便是政府
06:44
so we have to ask the question,
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所以我们又要考虑的问题是
06:46
how is a country governed?
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一个国家是如何管理？
06:47
How is it managed?
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它又是如何运作的？
06:49
And this is the reason why we have developed
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正因如此，我们探索开发了
06:51
what we call forward-looking indicators.
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我们所谓的前瞻性指标
06:54
These are indicators that give you
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这些指标能够
06:56
a much better read about
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为你更好地解读
06:57
the socioeconomic development of a country.
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一个国家的社会经济发展状况
07:01
I hope you would agree it's important for you to know
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我希望你能认同的是，你需要了解
07:03
if your government is willing to invest
in renewable energy and education.
in renewable energy and education.
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政府是否愿意投资可再生能源和教育
07:11
It's important for you to know
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你需要了解
07:12
if the government of your country
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政府是否
07:14
is able to manage a crisis,
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有能力管理危机
07:16
if the government is finally able to implement
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政府是否最终能够
07:19
the reforms that it's promised.
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推行其承诺过的改革
07:23
For example, if INCRA would rate
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例如，如果现在
07:25
South Africa right now,
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INCRA 要对南非进行主权信用评级
07:27
of course we would take a very, very close look
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我们肯定会密切审视
07:30
at the youth unemployment of the country,
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这个国家的青年失业问题
07:33
the highest in the world.
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全球最严重非其莫属
07:35
If over 70 percent of a country's population
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如果一个国家35岁以下的人口当中
07:38
under the age of 35 is unemployed,
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超过70%处于失业状态
07:42
of course this has a huge impact on the economy
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显然会对经济产生巨大影响
07:45
today and even more so in the future.
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今天如此，将来更甚
07:49
Well, our friends at Moody's,
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于是，穆迪
07:52
Standard & Poor's, and Fitch will tell us
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标普和惠誉的同行会说
07:54
we would take this into account as well.
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我们也会考虑这个因素
07:57
But guess what? We do not know
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但你猜怎么着？我们并不知道
07:59
exactly how they will take this into account.
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他们到底会如何将之列入考虑因素
08:02
And this leads me to the third big difference
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这也把我们引到了
08:04
that INCRA would make.
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INCRA要实现的第三个重大转变
08:06
INCRA would not only release its ratings
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INCRA不仅会公布其评级
08:09
but it would also release its indicators
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还会公布其各项指标
08:12
and methodology.
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以及评级方法
08:14
So in contrast to the current system,
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因此，与现行制度形成鲜明对比
08:16
INCRA would be fully transparent.
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INCRA 将是完全透明的
08:20
So in a nutshell,
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总而言之
08:21
INCRA would offer an alternative
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INCRA 将提供
08:24
to the current system of
the big three rating agencies
the big three rating agencies
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除现有的三大评级机构主宰局势的另一种选择
08:27
by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix
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通过引入全新非盈利性机构的方式
08:31
that would increase the competition,
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这将增加竞争
08:33
it would increase the transparency of the sector,
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提高评级领域透明度
08:36
and it would also increase the quality.
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还会提高评级工作的质量
08:39
I can tell that sovereign ratings
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主权信用评级在你看来
08:41
may still look to you like this very small piece
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可能还是复杂的世界金融系统中
08:44
of this very complex global financial world,
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一个小小的组成部分
08:48
but I tell you it's a very important one,
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但我敢跟你保证
08:51
and a very important one to fix,
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这一改革尤为重要
08:53
because sovereign ratings affect all of us,
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因为主权信用评级影响着所有人
08:56
and they should be addressed and should be defined
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应当将其作为公共财产
09:00
as public goods.
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对待和处理
09:01
And this is why we are testing our model right now,
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所以 现在我们正在试行这一全新模式
09:04
and why we are trying to find out if it can
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我们也在试图探索是否可以召集一组人马
09:07
bring together a group of able and willing actors
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怀揣共同目标，胜任这一工作
09:10
to bring INCRA to life.
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给 INCRA 注入活力
09:13
I truly believe building up INCRA
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我坚信 INCRA 的成立
09:16
is in everyone's interest,
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符合每个人的利益
09:18
and that we have the unique opportunity right now
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现在我们享有绝佳时机
09:22
to turn INCRA into a cornerstone
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将 INCRA 打造成为基石
09:24
of a new, more inclusive financial system.
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奠定一个全新的，更具包容性的金融体系
09:29
Because for way too long,
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因为太久以来
09:31
we have left the big financial players on their own.
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我们对金融巨头的行为不闻不问
09:35
It's time to give them some company.
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是时候参与进来了
09:38
Thank you.
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谢谢
09:40
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Annette Heuser - Rating agency reformerAnnette Heuser proposes critical reforms to loosen the iron grip of rating agencies on national credit scores.
Why you should listen
Credit rating agencies, with their power to downgrade credit ratings for entire nations, have come under intense scrutiny and recent events have put their acceptance and transparency into question. What if there was an alternative, free from the limitations and weakened legitimacy that encumbers the big three agencies?
Annette Heuser, executive director of the Washington branch of the German Bertelsmann Foundation, has created a blueprint for a new, non-profit solution to loosen the agencies’ iron grip. The International Nonprofit Credit Rating Agency (INCRA) would conduct unsolicited foreign-risk assessments, redefining sovereign ratings as a public good, and could dramatically shift the financial futures of the world.
Annette Heuser | Speaker | TED.com