ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Wright - Journalist, philosopher
The best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral.

Why you should listen

Author Robert Wright thinks the crises the human species now faces are moral in nature, and that our salvation lies in the intelligent pursuit of self-interest. In his book Nonzero, Wright argues that life depends on a non-zero-sum dynamic. While a zero-sum game depends on a winner and loser, all parties in a non-zero-sum game win or lose together, so players will more likely survive if they cooperate. This points to an optimistic future of ultimate cooperation among humans -- if we recognize the game.

Well-respected for his erudition and original thinking (Bill Clinton hailed him as a genius), Wright draws from multiple disciplines -- including science, religion, history and politics -- in his search for big-picture perspectives on today's problems, particularly terrorism, while offering guarded hope for where we might be headed. A Schwartz Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, Wright also hosts an interview series with celebrated thinkers at Meaningoflifetv.com.

Wright's newest book, The Evolution of God, explores the history of the idea of God in the three Abrahamic religions, Judaism, Islam and Christianity.

More profile about the speaker
Robert Wright | Speaker | TED.com
TED2006

Robert Wright: Progress is not a zero-sum game

罗伯特.怀特谈乐观主义

Filmed:
1,748,574 views

作者罗伯特解释了"非零和效应"是如何在机缘与合作的互动中,引导了我们的进化,以及我们应该如何利用它来拯救今天的人类世界。
- Journalist, philosopher
The best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:25
I've got apparently显然地 18 minutes分钟
0
1000
2000
我大概有18分钟的时间
00:27
to convince说服 you that history历史 has a direction方向, an arrow箭头;
1
3000
3000
来说服你们历史发展是有方向的---如一个箭头。
00:30
that in some fundamental基本的 sense, it's good;
2
6000
3000
本质上来说,这是个好事。
00:33
that the arrow箭头 points to something positive.
3
9000
3000
箭头指向着一些积极的事物。
00:36
Now, when the TEDTED people first approached接近 me about giving this upbeat乐观 talk --
4
12000
4000
当初TED来找我做个乐观的演讲
00:40
(Laughter笑声)
5
16000
1000
(笑声)
00:41
-- that was before the cartoon动画片 of Muhammad穆罕默德 had triggered触发 global全球 rioting骚乱.
6
17000
6000
-- 那时穆斯林还没有在世界各地引发暴乱
00:47
It was before the avian禽流感 flu流感 had reached到达 Europe欧洲.
7
23000
2000
禽流感还未登录欧洲
00:49
It was before Hamas哈马斯 had won韩元 the Palestinian巴勒斯坦的 election选举,
8
25000
2000
哈马斯还未赢得巴勒斯坦大选
00:51
eliciting诱发作用 various各个 counter-measures反制措施 by Israel以色列.
9
27000
4000
以色列也还未对之采取一系列对抗政策
00:55
And to be honest诚实, if I had known已知 when I was asked to give this upbeat乐观 talk
10
31000
4000
说实话,如果当初接受邀请时
00:59
that even as I was giving the upbeat乐观 talk,
11
35000
3000
我能预见知道现在
01:02
the apocalypse启示 would be unfolding展开 --
12
38000
3000
老天还没打开启示录的话
01:05
(Laughter笑声)
13
41000
1000
(笑声)
01:06
-- I might威力 have said, "Is it okay if I talk about something else其他?"
14
42000
4000
我也许会说,“我能不能说点别的?”
01:10
But I didn't, OK. So we're here. I'll do what I can. I'll do what I can.
15
46000
5000
不过我当时没说,那么好吧,我只能尽力试试看了。
01:16
I've got to warn警告 you:
16
52000
2000
我必须先警告你们
01:18
the sense in which哪一个 my worldview世界观 is upbeat乐观 has always been kind of subtle微妙,
17
54000
7000
我世界观的积极意义很难被理解
01:25
sometimes有时 even elusive难以捉摸.
18
61000
2000
甚至可以说是晦涩难懂
01:27
(Laughter笑声)
19
63000
1000
(笑声)
01:28
The sense in which哪一个 I can be uplifting令人振奋 and inspiring鼓舞人心 --
20
64000
3000
当我说:“我可以变得很乐观“,
01:31
I mean, there's always been a kind of a certain某些 grim严峻 dimension尺寸
21
67000
3000
我想,我尝试去乐观这件事
01:34
to the way I try to uplift抬起, so if grim严峻 inspiration灵感 --
22
70000
4000
本来就带着点悲观色彩,所以-
01:38
(Laughter笑声)
23
74000
1000
(笑声)
01:39
-- if grim严峻 inspiration灵感 is not a contradiction矛盾 in terms条款, that is, I'm afraid害怕,
24
75000
4000
--如果“悲观的乐观主义精神“不算自相矛盾的话,恐怕
01:43
the most you can hope希望 for. OK, today今天 -- that's if I succeed成功.
25
79000
4000
这就是今天你们可以从我这儿得到的,最乐观的东西了。
01:47
I'll see what I can do. OK?
26
83000
2000
我会尽力的。
01:49
Now, in one sense,
27
85000
2000
首先,
01:51
the claim要求 that history历史 has a direction方向 is not that controversial争论的.
28
87000
3000
历史发展有一定方向性这个观点,不会引起太多异议。
01:54
If you're just talking about social社会 structure结构体,
29
90000
3000
比如我们来看看社会的结构
01:57
OK, clearly明确地 that's gotten得到 more complex复杂
30
93000
2000
很显然,在过去的一万年里
01:59
a little over the last 10,000 years年份 -- has reached到达 higher更高 and higher更高 levels水平.
31
95000
3000
社会结构越来越复杂,也越来越高级
02:02
And in fact事实, that's actually其实 sustaining维持
32
98000
2000
事实上,
02:04
a long-standing由来已久 trend趋势 that predates human人的 beings众生, OK,
33
100000
4000
这个远期的趋势在人类出现之前就定好了
02:08
that biological生物 evolution演化 was doing for us.
34
104000
3000
这是生物进化的客观规律所决定的
02:11
Because what happened发生 in the beginning开始, this stuff东东 encases包住 itself本身 in a cell细胞,
35
107000
5000
生命起源,从一个细胞开始,
02:16
then cells细胞 start开始 hanging out together一起 in societies社会.
36
112000
3000
然后细胞们逐渐成群结队了
02:19
Eventually终于 they get so close, they form形成 multicellular organisms生物,
37
115000
3000
最后它们彼此亲近,构成了多细胞组织
02:22
then you get complex复杂 multicellular organisms生物; they form形成 societies社会.
38
118000
5000
然后有了更复杂些的多细胞组织;这可以理解为社群的一种形式。
02:27
But then at some point, one of these multicellular organisms生物
39
123000
3000
某个时间点,某一个多细胞组织
02:30
does something completely全然 amazing惊人 with this stuff东东, which哪一个 is
40
126000
3000
发生了一些奇妙的事情
02:33
it launches发布会 a whole整个 second第二 kind of evolution演化: cultural文化 evolution演化.
41
129000
5000
启动了一种全新的进化过程:文化进化。
02:38
And amazingly令人惊讶, that evolution演化 sustains维持 the trajectory弹道
42
134000
3000
更奇妙的是,这种进化所遵循的轨迹
02:41
that biological生物 evolution演化 had established既定 toward greater更大 complexity复杂.
43
137000
5000
与生物进化是一致的---越来越复杂
02:46
By cultural文化 evolution演化 we mean the evolution演化 of ideas思路.
44
142000
3000
文化进化,是指思想的演化过程。
02:49
A lot of you have heard听说 the term术语 "memes模因." The evolution演化 of technology技术,
45
145000
3000
你们中的很多人都听说过“文化基因“这个词。
02:52
I pay工资 a lot of attention注意 to, so, you know,
46
148000
2000
一直以来,我还很关注技术进化,
02:54
one of the first things you got was a little hand axe斧头.
47
150000
4000
我们从一把小小的斧片开始,
02:58
Generations go by, somebody says, hey, why don't we put it on a stick?
48
154000
5000
代代相传,直到某人说,我们为什么不把斧片安在棍子上呢?
03:03
(Laughter笑声)
49
159000
3000
(笑声)
03:06
Just absolutely绝对 delights美食 the little ones那些.
50
162000
3000
这大大方便了那些个子比较矮的人。
03:09
Next下一个 best最好 thing to a video视频 game游戏.
51
165000
2000
另一个例子,电视游戏。
03:11
This may可能 not seem似乎 to impress,
52
167000
2000
看上去它好像没什么了不起的。
03:13
but technological技术性 evolution演化 is progressive进步, so another另一个 10, 20,000 years年份,
53
169000
4000
但是技术进化是一个持续的过程,所以过了一两万年,
03:17
and armaments军备 technology技术 takes you here.
54
173000
2000
到今天,我们拥有了强大的武器装备。
03:19
(Laughter笑声)
55
175000
1000
(笑声)
03:20
Impressive有声有色. And the rate of technological技术性 evolution演化 speeds速度 up,
56
176000
4000
技术进化也是一个加速进化,
03:24
so a mere quarter25美分硬币 of a century世纪 after this, you get this, OK.
57
180000
4000
所以再过250年,我们有了这个。
03:28
(Laughter笑声)
58
184000
2000
(笑声)
03:30
And this.
59
186000
2000
还有这个。
03:32
(Laughter笑声)
60
188000
1000
(笑声)
03:33
I'm sorry -- it was a cheap低廉 laugh, but I wanted to find a way
61
189000
3000
不好意思--这个笑话很冷,我只是
03:36
to transition过渡 back to this idea理念 of the unfolding展开 apocalypse启示,
62
192000
3000
想找到一种解释默示录的方法,
03:39
and I thought that might威力 do it.
63
195000
2000
我以为讲些笑话能有些帮助。
03:41
(Applause掌声)
64
197000
7000
(掌声)
03:48
So, what threatens威胁 to happen发生 with this unfolding展开 apocalypse启示
65
204000
5000
当今世界社会体系的崩溃,
03:53
is the collapse坍方 of global全球 social社会 organization组织.
66
209000
4000
冥冥中预示着默示录的秘密
03:57
Now, first let me remind提醒 you how much work it took to get us where we are,
67
213000
3000
首先,我们来看看,世界上的社会体系
04:00
to be on the brink边缘 of true真正 global全球 social社会 organization组织.
68
216000
3000
是如何演化到今天的样子的。
04:03
Originally本来, you had the most complex复杂 societies社会, the hunter-gatherer狩猎采集 village.
69
219000
6000
起初,是一个复杂的、靠狩猎与采集维生的村落。
04:09
Stonehenge巨石阵 is the remnant of a chiefdom酋邦,
70
225000
2000
然后是酋长社会,代表遗迹---巨石阵,
04:11
which哪一个 is what you get with the invention发明 of agriculture农业: multi-village多村 polity政体
71
227000
3000
在酋长社会,出现了农业,这是一种
04:14
with centralized集中 rule规则.
72
230000
3000
有中央集权的多村落群体制。
04:17
With the invention发明 of writing写作, you start开始 getting得到 cities城市. This is blurry模糊. I kind of like that
73
233000
5000
随着书写的发明,城市出现了。这个关系看上去有点牵强。但是我很喜欢,
04:22
because it makes品牌 it look like a one-celled单细胞 organism生物 and reminds提醒 you
74
238000
3000
整个过程就像刚才所讲的单细胞组织的进化过程,
04:25
how many许多 levels水平 organic有机 organization组织 has already已经 moved移动 through通过
75
241000
4000
有机体经过层层演化,
04:29
to get to this point. And then you get to, you know, you get empires帝国.
76
245000
6000
才成了今天的样子。接下来的,你们一定猜到,是帝国。
04:35
I want to stress强调, you know, social社会 organization组织 can transcend超越 political政治 bounds界限.
77
251000
4000
我必须强调一下,社会组织是不受政治界限约束的。
04:39
This is the Silk Road connecting the Chinese中文 Empire帝国 and the Roman罗马 Empire帝国.
78
255000
4000
丝绸之路,贯通了古中国与古罗马帝国。
04:43
So you had social社会 complexity复杂 spanning跨越 the whole整个 continent大陆,
79
259000
3000
我们在整片亚欧大陆上看到了一致的社会属性,
04:46
even if no polity政体 did similarly同样. Today今天, you've got nation国家 states状态.
80
262000
5000
即使政体不同。今天,有那么多国家,
04:51
Point is: there's obviously明显 collaboration合作 and organization组织 going on
81
267000
3000
但很显然,各种组织与合作蓬勃发展着,
04:54
beyond national国民 bounds界限.
82
270000
2000
超越了国界。
04:56
This is actually其实 just a picture图片 of the earth地球 at night,
83
272000
3000
这张图片显示了深夜里地球的样子,
04:59
and I'm just putting it up because I think it's pretty漂亮.
84
275000
2000
我认为它非常漂亮,
05:01
Does kind of convey传达 the sense that this is an integrated集成 system系统.
85
277000
5000
传递着一种整体感。
05:06
Now, I explained解释 this growth发展 of complexity复杂 by reference参考 to something
86
282000
6000
现在,我要用“非零和效应“
05:12
called "non-zero非零 sumnesssumness."
87
288000
4000
来解释这类演化。
05:16
Assuming假设 that a few少数 of you did not do the assigned分配 reading, very quickly很快,
88
292000
5000
考虑到有些人可能没有看过阅读资料,
05:21
the key idea理念 is the distinction分别 between之间 zero-sum零和 games游戏, in which哪一个 correlations相关
89
297000
5000
在零和博弈中,博弈者的关系是对立的:
05:26
are inverse: always a winner优胜者 and a loser失败者.
90
302000
3000
一个赢家,一个输家。
05:29
Non-zero-sum非零和 games游戏 in which哪一个 correlations相关 can be positive, OK.
91
305000
4000
而非零和博弈,这种关系可以是双赢的。
05:33
So like in tennis网球, usually平时 it's win-lose输赢;
92
309000
4000
就像在网球赛中,通常是有输赢的,
05:37
it always adds增加 up to zero-zero-sum零 - 零 - 总和. But if you're playing播放 doubles双打,
93
313000
3000
比分总是零和的,但是在双打赛中,
05:40
the person on your side of the net, they're in the same相同 boat as you,
94
316000
2000
你的搭档,与你站在同一战线,
05:42
so you're playing播放 a non-zero-sum非零和 game游戏 with them.
95
318000
2000
因此你与你的搭档之间,是一种非零和游戏。
05:44
It's either for the better or for the worse更差, OK.
96
320000
3000
你们总是有福同享,有难同当。
05:47
A lot of forms形式 of non-zero-sum非零和 behavior行为 in the realm领域 of economics经济学 and so on
97
323000
5000
在经济学领域,非零和博弈
05:52
in everyday每天 life often经常 leads引线 to cooperation合作.
98
328000
4000
往往会带来合作。
05:56
The argument论据 I make is basically基本上 that, well,
99
332000
2000
我想说的是,
05:58
non-zero-sum非零和 games游戏 have always been part部分 of life.
100
334000
2000
非零和博弈始终是我们生活的一部分。
06:00
You have them in hunter-gatherer狩猎采集 societies社会,
101
336000
2000
在人类采集狩猎的时代,就有非零和博弈。
06:02
but then through通过 technological技术性 evolution演化, new forms形式 of technology技术 arise出现
102
338000
5000
然而随着技术进步,新的技术不断兴起,
06:07
that facilitate促进 or encourage鼓励 the playing播放 of non-zero-sum非零和 games游戏,
103
343000
5000
促进了非零和博弈的发生。
06:12
involving涉及 more people over larger territory领土.
104
348000
3000
参与其中的博弈者,其分布也越来越广。
06:15
Social社会 structure结构体 adapts适应 to accommodate容纳 this possibility可能性 and
105
351000
4000
为了适应这种可能性,社会的结构不断改变,
06:19
to harness马具 this productive生产的 potential潜在, so you get cities城市, you know,
106
355000
3000
来保证我们有这样的生产潜力,所以出现了你所熟知的城市,
06:22
and you get all the non-zero-sum非零和 games游戏 you don't think about
107
358000
3000
以及你所不熟知的非零和博弈,
06:25
that are being存在 played发挥 across横过 the world世界.
108
361000
1000
你可能并未意识到非零和博弈在世界每个角落都在发生。
06:26
Like, have you ever thought when you buy购买 a car汽车,
109
362000
3000
举个例子,当你买车的时候,
06:29
how many许多 people on how many许多 different不同 continents大陆 contributed贡献
110
365000
2000
你有没有想过,有多少身处各大洲的人,
06:31
to the manufacture制造 of that car汽车? Those are people in effect影响
111
367000
5000
涉及了这辆车的制造过程?这些相关人士,
06:36
you're playing播放 a non-zero-sum非零和 game游戏 with.
112
372000
2000
就是你进行非零和游戏的对象。
06:38
I mean, there are certainly当然 plenty丰富 of them around.
113
374000
7000
显然,他们人数众多。
06:45
Now, this sounds声音 like an intrinsically本质 upbeat乐观 worldview世界观 in a way,
114
381000
3000
某种程度上来讲,这实际上是一种非常j积极乐观的世界观,
06:48
because when you think of non-zero非零, you think win-win双赢, you know,
115
384000
3000
因为当你提到零和时,你所考虑的是双赢的结果,
06:51
that's good. Well, there are a few少数 reasons原因
116
387000
2000
这很不错。不过,我也认为,
06:53
that actually其实 it's not intrinsically本质 upbeat乐观.
117
389000
3000
本质上,它也并不是那么令人乐观。
06:56
First of all, it can accommodate容纳; it doesn't deny拒绝 the existence存在
118
392000
4000
首先,它并没有否定
07:00
of inequality不等式 exploitation开发 war战争.
119
396000
3000
不平等的剥削战争的存在。
07:03
But there's a more fundamental基本的 reason原因
120
399000
2000
还有一个更深层的原因,
07:05
that it's not intrinsically本质 upbeat乐观, because a non-zero-sum非零和 game游戏,
121
401000
3000
因为非零和博弈,
07:08
all it tells告诉 you for sure is that the fortunes命运 will be correlated相关 for better or worse更差.
122
404000
4000
它只能保证结果要么是都好,要么是都坏,
07:12
It doesn't necessarily一定 predict预测 a win-win双赢 outcome结果.
123
408000
6000
它不能保证最后的结果是双赢的。
07:18
So, in a way, the question is: on what grounds理由
124
414000
2000
那么,我到底凭什么
07:20
am I upbeat乐观 at all about history历史? And the answer回答 is,
125
416000
4000
对整个历史进程保持乐观的态度呢?答案如下,
07:24
first of all, on balance平衡 I would say people have played发挥 their games游戏
126
420000
4000
第一,总的来说,我认为
07:28
to more win-win双赢 outcomes结果 than lose-lose两败俱伤 outcomes结果. On balance平衡,
127
424000
4000
人们总是能更多的得到双赢结果。
07:32
I think history历史 is a net positive in the non-zero-sum非零和 game游戏 department.
128
428000
6000
我认为历史进程,在非零和博弈里,净结果是正的。
07:38
And a testament遗嘱 to this is the thing that most amazes惊讶 me,
129
434000
5000
对这个结论,有一个最令我惊异的实际证明,
07:43
most impresses令人印象深刻 me, and most uplifts隆起带 me,
130
439000
2000
它给我留下了深刻的印象,也非常激励我:
07:45
which哪一个 is that there is a moral道德 dimension尺寸 to history历史;
131
441000
5000
历史进程,本身包含了一个道德维度,
07:50
there is a moral道德 arrow箭头. We have seen看到 moral道德 progress进展 over time.
132
446000
3000
存在一个道德指向。可以看到,道德也是随着时间而发展的。
07:53
2,500 years年份 ago, members会员 of one Greek希腊语 city-state市,州
133
449000
4000
2500年钱,希腊城邦里的人,
07:57
considered考虑 members会员 of another另一个 Greek希腊语 city-state市,州 subhuman类人的
134
453000
3000
认为其他希腊城邦里的人,都是次等人,
08:00
and treated治疗 them that way. And then this moral道德 revolution革命 arrived到达,
135
456000
5000
用对待此等人的方式对待他们。随着道德革命的开始,
08:05
and they decided决定 that actually其实, no, Greeks希腊人 are human人的 beings众生.
136
461000
4000
他们改变了主意,所有的希腊人都是人类。
08:09
It's just the Persians波斯人 who aren't fully充分 human人的
137
465000
3000
只有波斯人是次等人,
08:12
and don't deserve值得 to be treated治疗 very nicely很好.
138
468000
2000
不应该对他们太好了,
08:14
But this was progress进展 -- you know, give them credit信用. And now today今天,
139
470000
3000
但这至少是个进步--呵呵,给希腊人一个小表扬。今天,
08:17
we've我们已经 seen看到 more progress进展. I think -- I hope希望 -- most people here would say
140
473000
3000
这个进步就更大了。我认为--我也希望--在座的大部分人,
08:20
that all people everywhere到处 are human人的 beings众生,
141
476000
3000
都会承认,世界各地的人都是同类,
08:23
deserve值得 to be treated治疗 decently体面,
142
479000
3000
所有人都应该被平等对待,
08:26
unless除非 they do something horrendous可怕的, regardless而不管 of race种族 or religion宗教.
143
482000
4000
除非他们做了令人厌恶的事情,不论什么种族什么宗教。
08:30
And you have to read your ancient history历史 to realize实现 what a revolution革命 that has been,
144
486000
4000
你应该去读读古代史,然后才能明白这是怎样一个革命。
08:34
OK. This was not a prevalent流行 view视图,
145
490000
2000
这个观点并未被广泛接受,
08:36
few少数 thousand years年份 ago, and I attribute属性 it to this non-zero-sum非零和 dynamic动态.
146
492000
5000
我认为正式因为非零和效应,几千年前的人类,
08:41
I think that's the reason原因 there is as much tolerance公差 toward nationalities国籍,
147
497000
4000
就学会了包容国籍、
08:45
ethnicities种族, religions宗教 as there is today今天. If you asked me,
148
501000
5000
种族和宗教方面的差异,这与现在的情况无异。如果你问我,
08:50
you know, why am I not in favor偏爱 of bombing轰炸 Japan日本,
149
506000
2000
为什么我不支持向日本投放原子弹,
08:52
well, I'm only half-joking半开玩笑 when I say they built内置 my car汽车.
150
508000
3000
如果我说那是因为日本人造了我的车,那是半开玩笑的。
08:55
We have this non-zero-sum非零和 relationship关系,
151
511000
2000
我们之间存在一种非零和关系,
08:57
and I think that does lead to a kind of a tolerance公差 to the extent程度 that you realize实现
152
513000
6000
我认为,这种关系确实促进我们彼此包容,
09:03
that someone有人 else's别人的 welfare福利 is positively积极 correlated相关 with yours你的 --
153
519000
4000
因为其他人的福利确实与你的福利正相关。
09:07
you're more likely容易 to cut them a break打破.
154
523000
2000
你可能更愿意给他们一个机会。
09:09
I kind of think this is a kind of a business-class商务课程 morality道德.
155
525000
5000
我想这是一种商务仓的道德准则。
09:14
Unfortunately不幸, I don't fly trans-Atlantic跨大西洋 business商业 class often经常 enough足够
156
530000
4000
不幸的是,我不常坐trans-Atlantics公司的商务仓,
09:18
to know, or any other kind of business商业 class really,
157
534000
3000
也真不太了解其他航空公司的商务仓了。
09:21
but I assume承担 that in business商业 class, you don't hear many许多 expressions表达式 of, you know,
158
537000
4000
我暂且认定,在商务仓,你不会听到太多
09:25
bigotry偏执 about racial种族 groups or ethnic民族 groups,
159
541000
3000
关于种族的偏执言论,
09:28
because the people who are flying飞行 trans-Atlantic跨大西洋 business商业 class
160
544000
3000
因为坐商务仓的人,
09:31
are doing business商业 with all these people; they're making制造 money
161
547000
2000
与各种各样的人进行交易;
09:33
off all these people. And I really do think that, in that sense at least最小,
162
549000
4000
他们只想从这些人手里赚钱。因此我认为,至少在这个层面,
09:37
capitalism资本主义 has been a constructive建设性 force,
163
553000
3000
资本主义是一股有助益的力量,
09:40
and more fundamentally从根本上, it's a non-zero-sumness非零sumness
164
556000
2000
它是非零纯和的,
09:42
that has been a constructive建设性 force in expanding扩大 people's人们 realm领域
165
558000
4000
它帮助人们扩张了
09:46
of moral道德 awareness意识. I think the non-zero-sum非零和 dynamic动态,
166
562000
5000
道德意识的领域。我认为非零和机制,
09:51
which哪一个 is not only economic经济 by any means手段 -- it's not always commerce商业 --
167
567000
4000
不只是说经济--任何事都不能只归到经济利益--
09:55
but it has driven驱动 us to the verge边缘 of a moral道德 truth真相,
168
571000
5000
非零和机制带领我们逼近了道德真相的边缘,
10:00
which哪一个 is the fundamental基本的 equality平等 of everyone大家. It has doneDONE that.
169
576000
3000
那就是人人平等。
10:03
As it has moved移动 global全球, moved移动 us toward a global全球 level水平 of social社会 organization组织,
170
579000
5000
当我们进入一个全球层面的社会机构,
10:08
it has driven驱动 us toward moral道德 truth真相.
171
584000
2000
我们必须面对道德真相。
10:10
I think that's wonderful精彩.
172
586000
3000
这太棒了。
10:13
Now, back to the unfolding展开 apocalypse启示.
173
589000
3000
现在,回到那本未开启的启示录。
10:16
And you may可能 wonder奇迹, OK, that's all fine,
174
592000
2000
好吧,你可能会好奇,
10:18
sounds声音 great -- moral道德 direction方向 in history历史 --
175
594000
2000
听起来不错--历史的道德维度--
10:20
but what about this so-called所谓 clash冲突 of civilizations文明? Well, first of all,
176
596000
9000
但是怎么解释那些不同文明之间的冲突?首先,
10:29
I would emphasize注重 that it fits适合 into the non-zero-sum非零和 framework骨架,
177
605000
3000
我要强调一下,这些冲突的发生也是符合非零和机制的,
10:32
OK. If you look at the relationship关系
178
608000
2000
如果我们仔细看看
10:34
between之间 the so-called所谓 Muslim穆斯林 world世界 and Western西 world世界 --
179
610000
3000
所谓的穆斯林世界与西方世界的关系--
10:37
two terms条款 I don't like, but can't really avoid避免;
180
613000
3000
这两个词是我不喜欢用的,但是又无法避免使用它们--
10:40
in such这样 a short span跨度 of time, they're efficient高效 if nothing else其他 --
181
616000
4000
在这么短的时间内,没什么比这两个词更高效了。
10:44
it is non-zero-sum非零和. And by that I mean,
182
620000
3000
这个关系是非零和的。我是说,
10:47
if people in the Muslim穆斯林 world世界 get more hateful可恶, more resentful不满,
183
623000
4000
如果穆斯林世界的人怀着更多的敌意、更多的憎恨,
10:51
less happy快乐 with their place地点 in the world世界,
184
627000
1000
对他们在世界上的位置更不满意,
10:52
it'll它会 be bad for the West西. If they get more happy快乐, it'll它会 be good for the West西.
185
628000
4000
这对西方世界来说,也是不利的。反之,如果他们更快乐,对西方世界也是有益处的。
10:56
So that is a non-zero-sum非零和 dynamic动态.
186
632000
5000
所以这是一种非零和机制。
11:01
And I would say the non-zero-sum非零和 dynamic动态 is only going to grow增长 more intense激烈 over time
187
637000
4000
这种机制,会因为科技的发展趋势,
11:05
because of technological技术性 trends趋势, but more intense激烈 in a kind of negative way.
188
641000
5000
这种非零和机制,会向负面方向进行的越来越激烈。
11:10
It's the downside缺点 correlation相关 of their fortunes命运 that will become成为 more and more possible可能.
189
646000
6000
他们未来的命运,将越来越可能呈现负面的相关性。
11:16
And one reason原因 is because of something I call the "growing生长 lethality杀伤力 of hatred."
190
652000
5000
我称其为憎恨的破坏性积累效应。
11:21
More and more, it's possible可能 for grassroots基层 hatred abroad国外
191
657000
4000
基层草根很有可能以在美国发动更频繁的、有组织的暴力
11:25
to manifest表现 itself本身 in the form形成 of organized有组织的 violence暴力 on American美国 soil.
192
661000
5000
来发泄他们对异族的强烈憎恨。
11:30
And that's pretty漂亮 new, and I think it's probably大概 going to get a lot worse更差
193
666000
3000
我认为这种状况很有可能继续恶化,
11:33
-- this capacity容量 -- because of
194
669000
3000
--我之所以这么说--
11:36
trends趋势 in information信息 technology技术, in technologies技术 that can be used
195
672000
4000
是因为信息技术的迅猛发展,
11:40
for purposes目的 of munitions弹药 like biotechnology生物技术 and nanotechnology纳米技术.
196
676000
6000
生物技术和纳米技术也正在更多地被运用在军火上。
11:46
We may可能 be hearing听力 more about that today今天.
197
682000
2000
我们时常能听到新技术在军事上的新应用。
11:48
And there's something I worry担心 about especially特别, which哪一个 is that
198
684000
3000
我尤其忧虑的是,
11:51
this dynamic动态 will lead to a kind of a feedback反馈 cycle周期 that puts看跌期权 us on a slippery slope.
199
687000
6000
这种动态变化会导致一种回馈循环,逼迫我们走上陡坡。
11:57
What I have in mind心神 is: terrorism恐怖主义 happens发生 here; we overreact反应过度 to it.
200
693000
3000
我的想法是:恐怖主义已经发生了;我们的反应过于激烈。
12:00
That, you know, we're not sufficiently充分地 surgical外科 in our retaliation报复
201
696000
4000
我们对于恐怖主义的复仇,并不是那么理智,
12:04
leads引线 to more hatred abroad国外, more terrorism恐怖主义.
202
700000
2000
这只会让外族更憎恨我们,导致更猖狂的恐怖主义。
12:06
We overreact反应过度 because being存在 human人的, we feel like retaliating报复,
203
702000
4000
当我们感到被憎恨时,我们的反应会更加激烈,这是人的本性,
12:10
and it gets得到 worse更差 and worse更差 and worse更差.
204
706000
2000
这是一种恶性循环。
12:12
You could call this the positive feedback反馈 of negative vibes气氛,
205
708000
4000
你可以称之为负面情绪的正向反馈效应,
12:16
but I think in something so spooky幽灵般的,
206
712000
2000
这在我看来非常可怕,
12:18
we really shouldn't不能 have the word positive there at all, even in a technical技术 sense.
207
714000
3000
我们甚至不该使用“正向”这个词,即使只是术语的表达。
12:21
So let's call it the death死亡 spiral螺旋 of negativity消极.
208
717000
3000
所以让我们称之为负面情绪的死亡螺旋效应。
12:24
(Laughter笑声)
209
720000
2000
(笑声)
12:26
I assure保证 you if it happens发生, at the end结束, both the West西
210
722000
2000
我敢说,一旦这个效应开始作用,到头来,
12:28
and the Muslim穆斯林 world世界 will have suffered遭遇.
211
724000
3000
西方世界和穆斯林世界都要受罪。
12:31
So, what do we do? Well, first of all, we can do a lot more with arms武器 control控制,
212
727000
6000
所以我们到底该怎么办?首先,我们要做的远远不只是武装控制,
12:37
the international国际 regulation of dangerous危险 technologies技术.
213
733000
2000
或者什么对威胁性技术的国际公约。
12:39
I have a whole整个 global全球 governance治理 sermon讲道
214
735000
2000
我想给你们讲一大堆道理,
12:41
that I will spare备用 you right now,
215
737000
2000
讲讲整个地球该怎么治理,
12:43
because I don't think that's going to be enough足够 anyway无论如何, although虽然 it's essential必要.
216
739000
3000
虽然我其实觉得怎么讲都不嫌多,这还是很有必要的。
12:46
I think we're going to have to have a major重大的 round回合
217
742000
2000
我认为,
12:48
of moral道德 progress进展 in the world世界.
218
744000
2000
一轮新的道德进化即将开始。
12:50
I think you're just going to have to see less hatred among其中 groups,
219
746000
5000
我认为,不同群体---不同的种族、宗教,任何有差异的群体,
12:55
less bigotry偏执, and, you know, racial种族 groups, religious宗教 groups, whatever随你.
220
751000
6000
他们之间的厌恶会减少,偏执的行为会减少,
13:01
I've got to admit承认 I feel silly愚蠢 saying that.
221
757000
2000
好吧我必须承认当我这么说时,我也觉得自己很傻。
13:03
It sounds声音 so kind of PollyannaishPollyannaish. I feel like Rodney罗德尼 King国王, you know,
222
759000
3000
听起来我好像在盲目乐观,好像罗德尼 金当年说,
13:06
saying, why can't we all just get along沿?
223
762000
2000
我们为什么就不能一起混?
13:08
But hey, I don't really see any alternative替代, given特定 the way I read the situation情况.
224
764000
6000
但是,就我目前的处境看,我没有其他选择了。
13:14
There's going to have to be moral道德 progress进展.
225
770000
3000
道德进化一定要发生。
13:17
There's going to have to be a lessening减持 of the amount of hatred in the world世界,
226
773000
4000
整个世界上弥漫的仇恨一定要减少,
13:21
given特定 how dangerous危险 it's becoming变得.
227
777000
4000
因为现在这个世界是如此岌岌可危。
13:25
In my defense防御, I'd say, as naive幼稚 as this may可能 sound声音,
228
781000
3000
尽管听起来很无知,但我还是要维护自己一下,
13:28
it's ultimately最终 grounded接地 in cynicism玩世不恭.
229
784000
3000
即使一大堆冷嘲热讽依然存在。
13:31
That is to say --
230
787000
1000
也就是说--
13:32
(Laughter笑声)
231
788000
1000
(笑声)
13:33
-- thank you, thank you. That is to say, remember记得: my whole整个 view视图
232
789000
5000
--谢谢,谢谢。也就是说,请记住:
13:38
of morality道德 is that it boils down to self-interest自我利益.
233
794000
3000
我讲所有的道德,都归结于自我利益。
13:41
It's when people's人们 fortunes命运 are correlated相关.
234
797000
2000
当人们的命运彼此相连,
13:43
It's when your welfare福利 conducesconduces to mine, that I decide决定, oh yeah,
235
799000
3000
当你的福利也能带给我福利,那么行呀,
13:46
I'm all in favor偏爱 of your welfare福利. That's what's responsible主管
236
802000
4000
我绝对为你的福利着想。
13:50
for this growth发展 of this moral道德 progress进展 so far,
237
806000
3000
这个就是道德进步的源动力。
13:53
and I'm saying we once一旦 again have a correlation相关 of fortunes命运,
238
809000
3000
我再强调一遍,我们的命运紧紧相连。
13:56
and if people respond响应 to it intelligently智能, we will see
239
812000
4000
如果人们采取明智的回应,
14:00
the development发展 of tolerance公差 and so on --
240
816000
3000
我们将看到更多的包容,以及
14:03
the norms规范 that we need, you know.
241
819000
3000
其他我们所需要的东西。
14:06
We will see the further进一步 evolution演化 of this kind of business-class商务课程 morality道德.
242
822000
4000
我们讲看到此类公务舱道德的再次进化。
14:10
So, these two things, you know, if they get people's人们 attention注意
243
826000
6000
所以这两个方面--人们注意到并且认可这种正相关性,
14:16
and drive驾驶 home the positive correlation相关 and people do what's in their self-interests自身利益,
244
832000
3000
并且他们从自己的利益出发--
14:19
which哪一个 is further进一步 the moral道德 evolution演化,
245
835000
4000
促成了道德的进一步发展,
14:23
then they could actually其实 have a constructive建设性 effect影响.
246
839000
3000
那么,可以看到一些建设性作用。
14:26
And that's why I lump growing生长 lethality杀伤力 of hatred
247
842000
3000
这就是我为什么把“增强的憎恨的破坏性效应“
14:29
and death死亡 spiral螺旋 of negativity消极 under the general一般 rubric专栏,
248
845000
3000
和“负面效应的死亡螺旋效应“放在一个大标题下:
14:32
reasons原因 to be cheerful快乐.
249
848000
2000
这值得高兴。
14:34
(Laughter笑声)
250
850000
2000
(笑声)
14:36
Doing the best最好 I can, OK.
251
852000
2000
我已经很尽力了,好嘛。
14:38
(Laughter笑声)
252
854000
1000
(笑声)
14:39
I never called myself Mr先生. Uplift抬起.
253
855000
2000
我从来不叫自己“乐观先生”。
14:41
I'm just doing what I can here.
254
857000
3000
我确实很尽力了。
14:44
(Laughter笑声)
255
860000
1000
(笑声)
14:45
Now, launching发射 a moral道德 revolution革命 has got to be hard, right?
256
861000
3000
好吧,道德进化的展开,确实是非常困难的,对吧?
14:48
I mean, what do you do?
257
864000
2000
你们要怎么做?
14:50
And I think the answer回答 is a lot of different不同 people
258
866000
2000
我的回答是,
14:52
are going to have to do a lot of different不同 things.
259
868000
3000
我们所有人各尽其责。
14:55
We all start开始 where we are. Speaking请讲 as an American美国
260
871000
5000
我们就从眼下开始。作为一个美国人,
15:00
who has children孩子 whose谁的 security安全 10, 20, 30 years年份 down the road
261
876000
4000
我们的孩子有10年,20年,30年的保障,
15:04
I worry担心 about -- what I personally亲自 want to start开始 out doing
262
880000
3000
我的忧虑在于--我个人设定的起点--
15:07
is figuring盘算 out why so many许多 people around the world世界 hate讨厌 us, OK.
263
883000
4000
是想清楚为什么这个世界上,有这么多人讨厌我们。
15:11
I think that's a worthy值得 research研究 project项目 myself.
264
887000
4000
我个人认为这是个很值得研究的课题。
15:15
I also like it because it's an intrinsically本质 kind of morally道德 redeeming弥补的 exercise行使.
265
891000
5000
基本上,这也可以算做一个道德拯救的小练习。
15:20
Because to understand理解 why somebody
266
896000
2000
因为要弄理解那些
15:22
in a very different不同 culture文化 does something --
267
898000
2000
不同文化背景的人所做的事--
15:24
somebody you're kind of viewing观看 as alien外侨,
268
900000
2000
这些人对你来说简直就是外星人--
15:26
who's谁是 doing things you consider考虑 strange奇怪
269
902000
2000
他们的所作所为在你看来奇怪极了,
15:28
in a culture文化 you consider考虑 strange奇怪 -- to really understand理解 why they do
270
904000
4000
在这样一个奇怪的文化背景下,真正能理解他们,
15:32
the things they do is a morally道德 redeeming弥补的 accomplishment成就,
271
908000
4000
是一个道德救赎方面的大成就,
15:36
because you've got to relate涉及 their experience经验 to yours你的.
272
912000
2000
你必须把他们的经历与你的联系起来,
15:38
To really understand理解 it, you've got to say, "Oh, I get it.
273
914000
4000
才能真正明白,才能说,“啊,我懂了。
15:42
So when they feel resentful不满, it's kind of like
274
918000
2000
因此当他们感到愤恨时,
15:44
the way I feel resentful不满 when this happens发生,
275
920000
2000
我似乎也能感到愤恨,
15:46
and for somewhat有些 the same相同 reasons原因." That's true真正 understanding理解.
276
922000
4000
出于完全一致的理由。“这才是真正的理解。
15:50
And I think that is an expansion扩张 of your moral道德 compass罗盘 when you manage管理 to do that.
277
926000
6000
我认为,你应该把这种理解,添加到你的道德范畴中。
15:56
It's especially特别 hard to do when people hate讨厌 you, OK,
278
932000
3000
当对方憎恨你时,这变的尤其困难了,对吧,
15:59
because you don't really, in a sense, want
279
935000
3000
因为确实没有人会愿意,
16:02
to completely全然 understand理解 why people hate讨厌 you.
280
938000
2000
去完整地搞清楚为什么有人憎恨你。
16:04
I mean, you want to hear the reason原因, but you don't want to be able能够 to relate涉及 to it.
281
940000
2000
我是说,你当然想知道原因,但是你不会愿意把前后两者联系起来。
16:06
You don't want it to make sense, right? (Laughter笑声)
282
942000
2000
你不想承认这个因果关系,对吗?
16:08
You don't want to say, "Well, yeah, I can kind of understand理解
283
944000
2000
你不想说,“好吧好吧,我明白了,
16:10
how a human人的 being存在 in those circumstances情况
284
946000
2000
为什么一个处于那种环境下的人,
16:12
would hate讨厌 the country国家 I live生活 in." That's not a pleasant愉快 thing,
285
948000
3000
会讨厌我所在的国家。”这毕竟是件别扭的事情,
16:15
but I think it's something that we're going to have to get used to and
286
951000
6000
但我想我们不得不渐渐去适应。
16:21
work on. Now, I want to stress强调 that to understand理解, you know --
287
957000
11000
我想强调一下,之所以,
16:32
there are people who don't like this whole整个 business商业 of understanding理解
288
968000
3000
某些人并不喜欢我这一整套理解草根的玩意儿,
16:35
the grassroots基层, the root causes原因 of things; they don't want to know
289
971000
4000
根本原因是:他们不想知道
16:39
why people hate讨厌 us. I want to understand理解 it.
290
975000
3000
为什么人们讨厌我们。但是我想了解。
16:42
The reason原因 you're trying to understand理解 why they hate讨厌 us,
291
978000
2000
只有弄明白他们为什么讨厌我们,
16:44
is to get them to quit放弃 hating us. The idea理念
292
980000
3000
我们才能让他们不再讨厌我们,对吧。
16:47
when you go through通过 this moral道德 exercise行使 of really coming未来 to appreciate欣赏
293
983000
4000
当我们通过这种道德反思,去真正体谅
16:51
their humanity人性 and better understand理解 them, is part部分 of an effort功夫
294
987000
5000
他们的人性,去更理解他们,
16:56
to get them to appreciate欣赏 your humanity人性 in the long run.
295
992000
2000
他们才能更体谅我们的想法。
16:58
I think it's the first step toward that. That's the long-term长期 goal目标.
296
994000
4000
这是第一步。这是个需要长期努力才能实现的目标。
17:02
There are people who worry担心 about this, and in fact事实,
297
998000
5000
有些人有顾虑,大家都知道,
17:07
I, myself, apparently显然地, was denounced谴责 on national国民 TV电视
298
1003000
5000
就几天前,我在国家电视台上被公开指责,
17:12
a couple一对 of nights ago because of an op-ed专栏 I'd written书面.
299
1008000
4000
起因是我在专栏里所写的东西。
17:16
It was kind of along沿 these lines线, and the allegation断言 was
300
1012000
2000
我所写的字句,被指控为,
17:18
that I have, quote引用, "affection感情 for terrorists恐怖分子."
301
1014000
4000
引用他们的话,“对恐怖主义的感情。”
17:22
Now, the good news新闻 is that the person who said it was Ann Coulter库尔特.
302
1018000
3000
好消息是,至少念出这个指控的人是安妮库尔特。
17:25
(Laughter笑声)
303
1021000
2000
(笑声)
17:27
(Applause掌声)
304
1023000
2000
(掌声)
17:29
I mean, if you've got to have an enemy敌人, do make it Ann Coulter库尔特.
305
1025000
2000
如果你一定要树个敌,那么就找安妮库尔特吧。
17:31
(Laughter笑声)
306
1027000
1000
(笑声)
17:32
But it's not a crazy concern关心, OK, because understanding理解 behavior行为
307
1028000
4000
他们不是杞人忧天。
17:36
can lead to a kind of empathy同情,
308
1032000
2000
尝试理解恐怖主义,引起了某种共鸣,
17:38
and it can make it a little harder更难 to deliver交付 tough强硬 love, and so on.
309
1034000
3000
使得传达这种纠结的情感变得更为困难。
17:41
But I think we're a lot closer接近 to erring犯错 on the side of not comprehending理解
310
1037000
7000
但我也认为,选择不去理解,会是个更大的错误,
17:48
the situation情况 clearly明确地 enough足够, than in comprehending理解 it so clearly明确地
311
1044000
4000
情况已经很清楚了,
17:52
that we just can't, you know, get the army军队 out to kill terrorists恐怖分子.
312
1048000
3000
我们不能再让士兵去杀害恐怖分子了。
17:55
So I'm not really worried担心 about it. So --
313
1051000
3000
我并不真在乎这个问题。所以--
17:58
(Laughter笑声)
314
1054000
2000
(笑声)
18:00
-- I mean, we're going to have to work on a lot of fronts战线,
315
1056000
5000
--我是说,我们必须再采取些更直接更勇敢的措施,
18:05
but if we succeed成功 -- if we succeed成功 -- then once一旦 again,
316
1061000
7000
一旦我们成功了--那么,
18:12
non-zero-sumness非零sumness and the recognition承认 of non-zero-sum非零和 dynamics动力学
317
1068000
4000
非零和效应将再一次被认可,非零和机制将再一次被接受,
18:16
will have forced被迫 us to a higher更高 moral道德 level水平.
318
1072000
4000
我们的道德水准无疑将进入新的水平。
18:20
And a kind of saving保存 higher更高 moral道德 level水平,
319
1076000
5000
某种意义上的,拯救性的,更高的道德水准,
18:25
something that kind of literally按照字面 saves节省 the world世界.
320
1081000
2000
可以拯救世界。
18:27
If you look at the word "salvation救恩" in the Bible圣经 --
321
1083000
3000
如果你看看圣经里的“救赎”这个词--
18:30
the Christian基督教 usage用法 that we're familiar with --
322
1086000
3000
我们已很熟悉它在基督教中的用法--
18:33
saving保存 souls灵魂, that people go to heaven天堂 -- that's actually其实 a latecomer后来者.
323
1089000
3000
拯救灵魂,带人们上天堂--这其实是后人给的解释了。
18:36
The original原版的 meaning含义 of the word "salvation救恩" in the Bible圣经 is about saving保存 the social社会 system系统.
324
1092000
6000
救赎在圣经里最原始的意思是,拯救社会系统。
18:42
"Yahweh耶和华 is our Savior救主" means手段 "He has saved保存 the nation国家 of Israel以色列,"
325
1098000
3000
“耶和华是我们的救世主,”是指“他拯救了以色列人的国,”
18:45
which哪一个 at the time, was a pretty漂亮 high-level高水平 social社会 organization组织.
326
1101000
3000
那个时候,以色列已经是个很高级的社会组织了。
18:48
Now, social社会 organization组织 has reached到达 the global全球 level水平, and I guess猜测,
327
1104000
4000
现在,整个地球都是一个社会组织,所以我猜想,
18:52
if there's good news新闻 I can say I'm bringing使 you, it's just that
328
1108000
4000
如果我说我能带给你们什么好消息的话,
18:56
all the salvation救恩 of the world世界 requires要求 is the intelligent智能 pursuit追求
329
1112000
6000
只要以规范而谨慎的方式,明智地追求自我利益,
19:02
of self-interests自身利益 in a disciplined纪律 and careful小心 way.
330
1118000
6000
就能拯救这个世界。
19:08
It's going to be hard. I say we give it a shot射击 anyway无论如何
331
1124000
3000
这很难。但我们无论如何要试试看,
19:11
because we've我们已经 just come too far to screw it up now.
332
1127000
3000
因为如今我们已无法回头。
19:14
Thanks谢谢.
333
1130000
2000
谢谢。
19:16
(Applause掌声)
334
1132000
2000
(掌声)
Translated by Qian Yue
Reviewed by Tony Yet

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Wright - Journalist, philosopher
The best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral.

Why you should listen

Author Robert Wright thinks the crises the human species now faces are moral in nature, and that our salvation lies in the intelligent pursuit of self-interest. In his book Nonzero, Wright argues that life depends on a non-zero-sum dynamic. While a zero-sum game depends on a winner and loser, all parties in a non-zero-sum game win or lose together, so players will more likely survive if they cooperate. This points to an optimistic future of ultimate cooperation among humans -- if we recognize the game.

Well-respected for his erudition and original thinking (Bill Clinton hailed him as a genius), Wright draws from multiple disciplines -- including science, religion, history and politics -- in his search for big-picture perspectives on today's problems, particularly terrorism, while offering guarded hope for where we might be headed. A Schwartz Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, Wright also hosts an interview series with celebrated thinkers at Meaningoflifetv.com.

Wright's newest book, The Evolution of God, explores the history of the idea of God in the three Abrahamic religions, Judaism, Islam and Christianity.

More profile about the speaker
Robert Wright | Speaker | TED.com