ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Joe Lassiter - Energy scholar
Joe Lassiter focuses on one of the world’s most pressing problems: developing clean, secure and carbon-neutral supplies of reliable, low-cost energy all around the world.

Why you should listen

As the Senator John Heinz Professor of Management Practice in Environmental Management, Retired and current Senior Fellow at Harvard Business School, Joe Lassiter studies how high-potential ventures attacking the energy problem are being financed and how their innovations are being brought to market in different parts of the world. In the MBA and executive education programs, he teaches about the lessons learned from these ventures as well as potential improvements in business practices, regulation and government policy. Lassiter also supports University-wide efforts as a faculty fellow of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program and a faculty associate of the Harvard University Center for the Environment.

Following a 20-year career leading technology businesses, Lassiter joined HBS in 1996. He has taught courses in entrepreneurial finance, entrepreneurial marketing and innovation in business, energy & environment. For Harvard University, he taught courses in innovation & entrepreneurship to undergraduates, graduate students and post-doctoral fellows across the University and its affiliated hospitals. From its founding in 2010 until 2015, Lassuter was Faculty Chair of the University-wide Harvard Innovation Lab (Harvard i-lab).

Lassiter received his BS, MS, and PhD from MIT and was awarded National Science, Adams and McDermott Fellowships. He was elected to Sigma Xi.

More profile about the speaker
Joe Lassiter | Speaker | TED.com
TEDSummit

Joe Lassiter: We need nuclear power to solve climate change

喬伊·拉西特: 我們需要核能來解決氣候變遷問題

Filmed:
1,192,799 views

喬伊·拉西特(Joe Lassiter)是一位深度思想者兼直言者,專注乾淨、安全、碳平衡、可靠、低成本能量設備的發展。他在世界能源現況分析報告中,對目前相當棘手的核能發電問題提出了相當深度的看法,其中包括比石化燃料還要經濟實惠的發電廠的新設計。拉西特說,我們有潛力可以讓核能發電比以前更安全且更便宜。現在我們必須做出選擇盡快趕上。
- Energy scholar
Joe Lassiter focuses on one of the world’s most pressing problems: developing clean, secure and carbon-neutral supplies of reliable, low-cost energy all around the world. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
It's easy簡單 to forget忘記 that last night,
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有件事很容易被人們遺忘——
00:16
one billion十億 people went to sleep睡覺
without access訪問 to electricity電力.
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就是昨晚仍有10億人口
在就寢前沒有電力可以使用。
十億人口。
00:20
One billion十億 people.
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00:22
Two and a half billion十億 people
did not have access訪問 to clean清潔 cooking烹飪 fuels燃料
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有 25 億人口沒有乾淨的烹飪燃料
00:27
or clean清潔 heating加熱 fuels燃料.
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或乾淨的暖氣燃料可用。
00:30
Those are the problems問題
in the developing發展 world世界.
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這些是開發中國家的問題。
00:32
And it's easy簡單 for us not to be empathetic感情移入的
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而我們似乎也不太同情那些
00:35
with those people
who seem似乎 so distanced疏遠 from us.
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離我們這麼遙遠的人們。
00:38
But even in our own擁有 world世界,
the developed發達 world世界,
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但即使是在我們的世界——發達的世界,
00:41
we see the tension張力 of stagnant economies經濟
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我們仍會看到因為經濟不景氣
00:45
impacting影響 the lives生活 of people around us.
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對我們周遭人生活所造成的影響。
00:48
We see it in whole整個 pieces of the economy經濟,
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我們可以看到他們受各種景氣的影響,
00:51
where the people involved參與
have lost丟失 hope希望 about the future未來
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在這樣的背景下,人們對未來不抱希望,
00:55
and despair絕望 about the present當下.
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對目前現狀也相當失望。
00:57
We see that in the BrexitBrexit vote投票.
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我們在英國脫歐看到了這種現象。
00:59
We see that in the Sanders桑德斯/Trump王牌
campaigns活動 in my own擁有 country國家.
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我們在自己國家的總統大選
也看到了這種現象。
01:03
But even in countries國家 as recently最近
turning車削 the corner
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但即使是最近正要從
發展中國家轉變成
01:08
towards being存在 in the developed發達 world世界,
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發達國家的——
01:10
in China中國,
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中國,
01:11
we see the difficulty困難
that President主席 Xi has
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我們也看到習主席也相當為難,
01:14
as he begins開始 to un-employ失業 so many許多 people
in his coal煤炭 and mining礦業 industries行業
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他也開始在煤礦及
採礦產業解雇了很多
01:20
who see no future未來 for themselves他們自己.
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看不到自己未來的礦工。
01:23
As we as a society社會
figure數字 out how to manage管理
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即使我們的社會已經知道如何管理
01:26
the problems問題 of the developed發達 world世界
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發達國家的問題
01:28
and the problems問題 of the developing發展 world世界,
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以及發展中國家的問題,
01:30
we have to look at how we move移動 forward前鋒
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我們仍得仔細想想要如何更進一步的
01:33
and manage管理 the environmental環境的 impact碰撞
of those decisions決定.
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管理這些決定所帶給環境的影響。
01:37
We've我們已經 been working加工 on this problem問題
for 25 years年份, since以來 Rio里約熱內盧,
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自從里約的《京都議定書》後,
01:40
the Kyoto京都 Protocols協議.
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我們已經在這個議題上努力了25年。
01:43
Our most recent最近 move移動 is the Paris巴黎 treaty條約,
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我們最近的活動是在
巴黎的全球氣候大會協議,
01:46
and the resulting造成 climate氣候 agreements協議
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最後的協議書
01:49
that are being存在 ratified批准
by nations國家 around the world世界.
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已經被世界各國所簽署認可。
01:52
I think we can be very hopeful有希望
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我想,我們都很期待
01:54
that those agreements協議,
which哪一個 are bottom-up自下而上 agreements協議,
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這些協議,這些由下而上
01:57
where nations國家 have said
what they think they can do,
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由各國政府所承諾的協議,
02:00
are genuine真正 and forthcoming即將到來
for the vast廣大 majority多數 of the parties派對.
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能真正的實現並為所有人帶來利益。
02:04
The unfortunate不幸的 thing
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不幸的是,
02:07
is that now, as we look
at the independent獨立 analyses分析
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當我們仔細觀察獨立分析報告裡面
02:10
of what those climate氣候 treaties條約
are liable容易 to yield產量,
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這些氣候協定有哪些盲點時,
02:15
the magnitude大小 of the problem問題
before us becomes clear明確.
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一大堆問題就會一一浮現眼前。
02:18
This is the United聯合的 States狀態
Energy能源 Information信息 Agency's機構的 assessment評定
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這是美國能源資訊
評估委員會的評估報告,
02:23
of what will happen發生 if the countries國家
implement實行 the climate氣候 commitments承諾
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報告中說明了在巴黎氣候大會上
那些發表承諾的國家,
如果從現在起到2040年,
都執行了他們所說的事
02:28
that they've他們已經 made製作 in Paris巴黎
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02:30
between之間 now and 2040.
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那會有甚麼事發生。
02:33
It shows節目 basically基本上 COCO2 emissions排放
around the world世界
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這份報告基本上告訴了我們,
未來30年全球的碳排狀況。
02:37
over the next下一個 30 years年份.
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02:40
There are three things that you need
to look at and appreciate欣賞.
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有三件事,各位要特別注意:
02:44
One, COCO2 emissions排放 are expected預期
to continue繼續 to grow增長
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第一,未來三十年,
碳排預計仍會持續增長。
02:48
for the next下一個 30 years年份.
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02:51
In order訂購 to control控制 climate氣候,
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為了要控制氣候,
02:54
COCO2 emissions排放 have to literally按照字面 go to zero
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碳排幾乎必須要達到「零排放」,
02:57
because it's the cumulative累積的 emissions排放
that drive駕駛 heating加熱 on the planet行星.
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因為二氧化碳會積累,
它主導了地球的溫度。
03:02
This should tell you that we are losing失去
the race種族 to fossil化石 fuels燃料.
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這說明了,我們的石化燃料競賽
根本是個錯誤。
03:07
The second第二 thing you should notice注意
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第二,各位要明白:
03:09
is that the bulk of the growth發展
comes from the developing發展 countries國家,
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主要的增長來源是來自開發中國家,
03:13
from China中國, from India印度,
from the rest休息 of the world世界,
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像是,中國、印度,還有其它國家,
03:16
which哪一個 includes包括 South Africa非洲
and Indonesia印度尼西亞 and Brazil巴西,
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包括南非、印尼、巴西,
03:21
as most of these countries國家
move移動 their people
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當大部分這些國家把他們的人民
03:24
into the lower降低 range範圍 of lifestyles生活方式
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帶往了一個更低水準的生活的同時,
03:27
that we literally按照字面 take for granted理所當然
in the developed發達 world世界.
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在發達國家的我們卻認為
這是理所當然的必經過程。
03:32
The final最後 thing that you should notice注意
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最後一件各位必須注意的是:
03:34
is that each year,
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我們每一年,
03:37
about 10 gigatons億噸 of carbon are getting得到
added添加 to the planet's地球上的 atmosphere大氣層,
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大約有100億噸的碳
會排入地球的大氣層中,
03:44
and then diffusing擴散 into the ocean海洋
and into the land土地.
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之後溶入到海洋及大地裡。
03:48
That's on top最佳 of the 550 gigatons億噸
that are in place地點 today今天.
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這些會附加到目前存在地球
5500億噸的碳存量上。
03:54
At the end結束 of 30 years年份,
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30年後,
03:55
we will have put 850 gigatons億噸
of carbon into the air空氣,
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我們的空氣中將有8500億噸的碳,
04:01
and that probably大概 goes a long way
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所以要把地球表面的上升溫度
04:03
towards locking鎖定 in a 2-4 degree C increase增加
in global全球 mean surface表面 temperatures溫度,
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控制在2~4度C內,那可能比登天還難,
04:10
locking鎖定 in ocean海洋 acidification酸化
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還有控制海洋酸化、
04:13
and locking鎖定 in sea level水平 rise上升.
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控制海平面上升亦是百般困難。
04:16
Now, this is a projection投影 made製作 by men男人
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這是人類造成的結果、
04:20
by the actions行動 of society社會,
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社會造成的結果、
04:22
and it's ours我們的 to change更改, not to accept接受.
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我們必須改變,不能接受。
04:25
But the magnitude大小 of the problem問題
is something we need to appreciate欣賞.
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但我們還有很多問題要釐清。
04:30
Different不同 nations國家 make
different不同 energy能源 choices選擇.
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不同的國家有不同的能源選擇。
04:33
It's a function功能
of their natural自然 resources資源.
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取決於他們的天然資源的功能,
04:35
It's a function功能 of their climate氣候.
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一種氣候的功能。
04:37
It's a function功能 of the development發展 path路徑
that they've他們已經 followed其次 as a society社會.
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這是他們社會通往
發展道路上的方式。
04:42
It's a function功能 of where
on the surface表面 of the planet行星 they are.
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這條方程式,取決於他們位於
地球表面的哪一個位置。
04:46
Are they where it's dark黑暗
a lot of the time,
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他們是否長時間處於黑暗狀態
04:48
or are they at the mid-latitudes中緯度?
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或是他們位於中緯度?
04:50
Many許多, many許多, many許多 things
go into the choices選擇 of countries國家,
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有很多方式可以讓各國選擇,
04:55
and they each make a different不同 choice選擇.
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而每個國家都有不同的選擇。
04:58
The overwhelming壓倒 thing
that we need to appreciate欣賞
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有件擋不住的事,我們需要了解,
05:02
is the choice選擇 that China中國 has made製作.
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那就是中國所做出的選擇。
05:04
China中國 has made製作 the choice選擇,
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中國已經做出選擇,
05:07
and will make the choice選擇, to run on coal煤炭.
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他們將選擇繼續燒煤。
05:10
The United聯合的 States狀態 has an alternative替代.
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美國自己有替代方案,
05:12
It can run on natural自然 gas加油站
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可以選擇天然氣,
05:14
as a result結果 of the inventions發明
of fracking壓裂 and shale頁岩 gas加油站,
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因為我們有水力壓裂技術
及頁岩氣的探勘技術。
05:18
which哪一個 we have here.
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05:19
They provide提供 an alternative替代.
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它們提供了替代方案。
05:22
The OECD經合組織 Europe歐洲 has a choice選擇.
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歐洲的經濟合作發展組織
也做了選擇。
05:25
It has renewables可再生能源 that it can afford給予
to deploy部署 in Germany德國
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德國選擇再生能源,
05:28
because it's rich豐富 enough足夠
to afford給予 to do it.
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因為他們有錢可以支付做這件事。
05:31
The French法國 and the British英國的
show顯示 interest利益 in nuclear power功率.
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法國及英國對核能發電很有興趣。
05:37
Eastern Europe歐洲, still very heavily嚴重
committed提交 to natural自然 gas加油站 and to coal煤炭,
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東歐對天然氣及煤礦仍相當依賴,
05:42
and with natural自然 gas加油站
that comes from Russia俄國,
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提到天然氣,就會想到俄羅斯,
05:45
with all of its entanglements糾葛.
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它跟周遭國家一直糾纏不清。
05:47
China中國 has many許多 fewer choices選擇
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中國的選擇比較少,
05:50
and a much harder更難 row to hoe.
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而且困難重重。
05:53
If you look at China中國, and you ask yourself你自己
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如果你仔細觀察中國,你也許會問,
05:56
why has coal煤炭 been important重要 to it,
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為什麼煤礦對中國這麼重要?
05:58
you have to remember記得 what China's中國的 doneDONE.
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你必須回想中國的發展軌跡。
06:01
China中國 brought people to power功率,
not power功率 to people.
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中國帶給人民的是權力,
而不是電力。
06:05
It didn't do rural鄉村 electrification起電.
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他們不發展農村電力。
06:08
It urbanized城市化.
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他們全力發展城市化。
06:09
It urbanized城市化 by taking服用 low-cost低成本 labor勞動
and low-cost低成本 energy能源,
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低成本的勞力及低成本的能源,
促成了都市化的發展,
06:14
creating創建 export出口 industries行業
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造成出口產業的
06:16
that could fund基金 a tremendous巨大
amount of growth發展.
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大幅度成長。
06:19
If we look at China's中國的 path路徑,
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如果各位觀察中國的發展軌跡,
06:21
all of us know that prosperity繁榮 in China中國
has dramatically顯著 increased增加.
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大家都知道,中國的繁榮
成長地相當快速。
06:26
In 1980, 80 percent百分 of China's中國的 population人口
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在1980年代,有將近80%的中國人
06:31
lived生活 below下面 the extreme極端 poverty貧窮 level水平,
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生活在極度貧窮線以下。
06:34
below下面 the level水平 of having
$1.90 per person per day.
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平均每人每天賺的
竟低於1.9美金的水準。
06:38
By the year 2000, only 20 percent百分
of China's中國的 population人口
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但到了2000年,只剩下20%的中國人
06:44
lived生活 below下面 the extreme極端 poverty貧窮 level水平 --
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生活在極度貧窮線之下——
06:47
a remarkable卓越 feat功績,
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相當了不起的政績,
06:49
admittedly固然, with some costs成本
in civil國內 liberties自由
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誠然,這是犧牲了
一些人民的自由換來的,
06:52
that would be tough強硬 to accept接受
in the Western西 world世界.
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這在西方世界裡是不可能被接受的。
06:56
But the impact碰撞 of all that wealth財富
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但這樣的財富增長
06:59
allowed允許 people to get
massively大規模 better nutrition營養.
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讓人民大量獲得了更好的營養。
07:03
It allowed允許 water pipes管道 to be placed放置.
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地下水管得以建設、
07:06
It allowed允許 sewage污水 pipes管道 to be placed放置,
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衛生下水道得以建設、
07:08
dramatic戲劇性 decrease減少 in diarrheal腹瀉 diseases疾病,
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大量減少了腹瀉的疾病,
07:12
at the cost成本 of some outdoor戶外 air空氣 pollution污染.
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而這些卻是用空氣汙染換來的。
07:16
But in 1980, and even today今天,
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但在1980年代,甚至到目前為止,
07:18
the number one killer兇手 in China中國
is indoor室內 air空氣 pollution污染,
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中國的頭號殺手,
竟是室內的空氣汙染,
07:22
because people do not have access訪問
to clean清潔 cooking烹飪 and heating加熱 fuels燃料.
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因為人民沒有乾淨的烹飪
及暖氣燃料可用。
07:28
In fact事實, in 2040,
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事實上,在2040年,
07:31
it's still estimated預計
that 200 million百萬 people in China中國
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預估仍有二億的中國人口
07:36
will not have access訪問
to clean清潔 cooking烹飪 fuels燃料.
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沒有乾淨的烹飪燃料可用。
07:41
They have a remarkable卓越 path路徑 to follow跟隨.
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他們仍有相當艱辛的一段路要走。
07:44
India印度 also needs需求 to meet遇到 the needs需求
of its own擁有 people,
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印度也需要滿足人民的需求,
07:49
and it's going to do that by burning燃燒 coal煤炭.
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他們也準備用燃煤的方式來進行。
07:52
When we look at the EIA'sEIA的 projections預測
of coal煤炭 burning燃燒 in India印度,
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當我們仔細觀察印度燃煤的
環境影響評估,就會發現
07:58
India印度 will supply供應 nearly幾乎 four times
as much of its energy能源 from coal煤炭
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印度未來對燃煤的需求
是再生能源的四倍。
08:03
as it will from renewables可再生能源.
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08:06
It's not because they don't know
the alternatives備擇方案;
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並不是因為他們不知道
替代能源方案;
08:09
it's because rich豐富 countries國家
can do what they choose選擇,
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是因為富裕國家可以自由選擇,
08:14
poor較差的 countries國家 do what they must必須.
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而貧窮國家只能被迫選擇。
08:18
So what can we do to stop
coal's煤炭的 emissions排放 in time?
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所以,我們要如何及時的
停止燃煤的排放?
08:22
What can we do that changes變化
this forecast預測 that's in front面前 of us?
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我們有沒有辦法可以改善
眼前的預測結果?
08:27
Because it's a forecast預測 that we can change更改
if we have the will to do it.
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因為只要我們有意願改變,
我們一定辦的到。
08:33
First of all, we have to think
about the magnitude大小 of the problem問題.
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首先,我們必須從大方向來思考。
08:36
Between之間 now and 2040,
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從現在開始到2040年,
08:39
800 to 1,600 new coal煤炭 plants植物
are going to be built內置 around the world世界.
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全世界即將有800~1600座
燃煤發電廠被建造出來。
08:46
This week, between之間 one and three
one-gigawatt一個千兆瓦 coal煤炭 plants植物
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光這個禮拜,世界上就有1~3座
十億瓦特的燃煤發電廠開始運轉。
08:50
are being存在 turned轉身 on around the world世界.
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08:53
That's happening事件 regardless而不管
of what we want,
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不管我們想不想,
這件事就是會發生,
08:57
because the people
that rule規則 their countries國家,
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因為為了人民著想,
09:00
assessing評估 the interests利益 of their citizens公民,
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當權者在權衡利益之後,
09:02
have decided決定 it's in the interest利益
of their citizens公民 to do that.
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就已經決定要怎麼做了。
09:07
And that's going to happen發生
unless除非 they have a better alternative替代.
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除非有更好的替代方案,
不然事情擋都擋不住。
09:11
And every一切 100 of those plants植物 will use up
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而每100座燃煤發電廠
09:15
between之間 one percent百分 and three percent百分
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將會耗損1~3%的
09:18
of the Earth's地球 climate氣候 budget預算.
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地球氣候容忍量。
09:21
So every一切 day that you go home
thinking思維 that you should do something
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所以當你每天回家思考
如何在全球暖化議題上有所貢獻時,
09:24
about global全球 warming變暖,
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09:26
at the end結束 of that week, remember記得:
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記得,在每周結束前:
09:28
somebody fired解僱 up a coal煤炭 plant
that's going to run for 50 years年份
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已經又有人將要開啟
壹座運行50年的發電站
09:32
and take away your ability能力 to change更改 it.
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而這些人就是奪走你
想改變這一切能力的人。
09:37
What we've我們已經 forgotten忘記了 is something
that Vinod維諾德 Khosla科斯拉 used to talk about,
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我們可能已經忘記,
維諾德·柯斯拉曾說過的,
09:41
a man of Indian印度人 ethnicity種族
but an American美國 venture冒險 capitalist資本家.
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他是印度裔,但他是一位
美國籍的風險投資家,
09:45
And he said, back in the early 2000s,
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他說,回想2000年初期,
09:48
that if you needed需要 to get
China中國 and India印度 off of fossil化石 fuels燃料,
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如果你想要讓中國和
印度不使用石化燃料,
09:52
you had to create創建 a technology技術
that passed通過 the "Chindia中印 test測試,"
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那你得創造出一種可以通過
「Chindia測試」的科技,
09:56
"Chindia中印" being存在 the appending附加
of the two words.
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Chindia是中國和印度的縮寫。
09:59
It had to be first of all viable可行,
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這是他們的首要考量,
10:02
meaning含義 that technically技術上, they could
implement實行 it in their country國家,
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意思就是,這項技術,
可以運用在他們的國家,
10:05
and that it would be accepted公認
by the people in the country國家.
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且可以被他們的人民接受。
10:10
Two, it had to be a technology技術
that was scalable可擴展性,
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第二,這項技術必須能被規模化,
10:16
that it could deliver交付 the same相同 benefits好處
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它必須與石化燃料有相同的好處,
10:19
on the same相同 timetable時間表 as fossil化石 fuels燃料,
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能及時的傳送所需的能量,
這樣他們才能享受那樣的生活,
我再說一遍,我們認為這是理所當然的。
10:23
so that they can enjoy請享用 the kind of life,
again, that we take for granted理所當然.
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10:27
And third第三, it had to be cost-effective經濟有效
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第三,它必須夠便宜,
10:30
without subsidy補貼 or without mandate要求.
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不用接受補助或受第三方牽制。
10:33
It had to stand on its own擁有 two feet;
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必須自給自足;
10:36
it could not be maintained保持
for that many許多 people
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它不能由其他人來維護,
10:40
if in fact事實, those countries國家
had to go begging乞討
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如果這樣,他們國家就得求別人,
10:43
or had some foreign國外 country國家 say,
"I won't慣於 trade貿易 with you,"
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或者哪一天被其他國家說,
「我不跟你交易了」,
10:47
in order訂購 to get
the technology技術 shift轉移 to occur發生.
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為了就是讓技術突破能發生。
10:52
If you look at the Chindia中印 test測試,
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如果我們仔細觀察Chindia測試,
10:53
we simply只是 have not come up
with alternatives備擇方案 that meet遇到 that test測試.
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我們根本找不到符合的可替代方案。
10:58
That's what the EIAEIA forecast預測 tells告訴 us.
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這是環境引評估報告中告訴我們的。
11:02
China's中國的 building建造 800 gigawatts吉瓦 of coal煤炭,
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中國正在建造8000億瓦的燃煤發電廠
11:06
400 gigawatts吉瓦 of hydro水電,
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4000億瓦的水力發電廠
11:09
about 200 gigawatts吉瓦 of nuclear,
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2000億瓦的核能發電廠,
11:12
and on an energy-equivalent能量當量 basis基礎,
adjusting調整 for intermittency間歇,
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在能量相等的基礎上,因應跳電的調整,
11:16
about 100 gigawatts吉瓦 of renewables可再生能源.
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大約還需要1000億瓦的再生能源、
11:19
800 gigawatts吉瓦 of coal煤炭.
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8000億瓦的燃媒能源。
11:21
They're doing that, knowing會心 the costs成本
better than any other country國家,
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這樣做的原因是因為他們知道,
他們的成本比其它國家便宜,
11:25
knowing會心 the need better
than any other country國家.
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知道他們的需求比其它國家還要多。
11:28
But that's what they're aiming瞄準 for in 2040
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但這就是他們2040年的目標,
11:31
unless除非 we give them a better choice選擇.
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除非我們能給他們一個更好的選擇。
11:34
To give them a better choice選擇,
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要給他們更好的選擇,
11:35
it's going to have to meet遇到
the Chindia中印 test測試.
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還必須符合Chindia測試。
11:38
If you look at all the alternatives備擇方案
that are out there,
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如果仔細看一下現有的替代方案,
11:40
there are really two
that come near to meeting會議 it.
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真的只有2個可以符合。
11:43
First is this area of new nuclear
that I'll talk about in just a second第二.
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第一個是新核能技術領域,
我稍微談一談。
11:48
It's a new generation of nuclear plants植物
that are on the drawing畫畫 boards
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它是新一代的核能廠,
設計規劃目前正在全世界進行,
11:51
around the world世界,
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11:52
and the people who are
developing發展 these say
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而建造這些技術的人說,
11:55
we can get them
in position位置 to demo演示 by 2025
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我們可以在2025年建造展示機,
11:59
and to scale規模 by 2030,
if you will just let us.
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如果你們願意讓我們做的話,
2030年前可以大規模建置。
12:03
The second第二 alternative替代
that could be there in time
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第二個替代方案可以馬上使用,
12:06
is utility-scale公用事業規模 solar太陽能
backed已備份 up with natural自然 gas加油站,
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就是現今已經有的
多用途太陽能廠及天然氣做後盾,
12:10
which哪一個 we can use today今天,
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12:12
versus the batteries電池
which哪一個 are still under development發展.
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搭配目前仍在發展的蓄電池。
12:16
So what's holding保持 new nuclear back?
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那麼,是甚麼阻礙了新核能技術的發展?
12:19
Outdated過時的 regulations法規
and yesterday's昨天的 mindsets心態.
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過時的法令與老舊的想法。
12:23
We have not used our latest最新
scientific科學 thinking思維 on radiological放射性 health健康
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我們尚未運用最新的科技
解決放射性的健康問題
12:28
to think how we communicate通信
with the public上市
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以及要如何與大眾溝通
12:30
and govern治理 the testing測試
of new nuclear reactors反應堆.
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並管理新核能反應爐的測試能力。
12:33
We have new scientific科學 knowledge知識
that we need to use
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我們有新的科技知識,需要被使用
12:37
in order訂購 to improve提高 the way
we regulate調節 nuclear industry行業.
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才能改進核能產業的規範。
12:42
The second第二 thing is we've我們已經 got a mindset心態
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第二件事,就是我們有個大致的想法,
12:45
that it takes 25 years年份
and 2 to 5 billion十億 dollars美元
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需要花25年,20~50億美金
12:48
to develop發展 a nuclear power功率 plant.
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來發展新的核能電廠技術。
12:49
That comes from the historical歷史的,
military軍事 mindset心態
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這是來自歷史、軍事方面的知識累積,
12:54
of the places地方 nuclear power功率 came來了 from.
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這些是核能技術的知識來源。
12:57
These new nuclear ventures企業 are saying
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這些新的核能探險家告訴我們
12:59
that they can deliver交付 power功率
for 5 cents a kilowatt千瓦 hour小時;
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他們只要花5分錢就能產出
1千瓦小時的能量;
13:03
they can deliver交付 it
for 100 gigawatts吉瓦 a year;
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一年可以產出1000億瓦的能量;
13:06
they can demo演示 it by 2025;
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他們可以在2025年做展示;
13:09
and they can deliver交付 it in scale規模 by 2030,
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2030年規模量產,
13:12
if only we give them a chance機會.
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如果我們願意給他們機會。
13:16
Right now, we're basically基本上
waiting等候 for a miracle奇蹟.
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現在,我們基本上在等一個奇蹟
13:19
What we need is a choice選擇.
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但我們需要的只是個選擇。
13:21
If they can't make it safe安全,
if they can't make it cheap低廉,
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如果他們不能令它安全,
如果他們不能讓它便宜,
13:24
it should not be deployed部署.
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那就不能蓋。
13:26
But what I want you to do
is not carry攜帶 an idea理念 forward前鋒,
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但我希望各位要做的是,
不是聽聽就好,
13:30
but write your leaders領導者,
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而是要寫信給你們的領導人,
13:32
write the head of the NGOs非政府組織 you support支持,
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寫信給你支持的非政府組織的老大,
13:34
and tell them to give you the choice選擇,
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告訴他們,給你選擇,
不要給你老舊的思維,
13:38
not the past過去.
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13:39
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝各位。
13:40
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Yi-Fan Yu
Reviewed by jonathan oleg

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Joe Lassiter - Energy scholar
Joe Lassiter focuses on one of the world’s most pressing problems: developing clean, secure and carbon-neutral supplies of reliable, low-cost energy all around the world.

Why you should listen

As the Senator John Heinz Professor of Management Practice in Environmental Management, Retired and current Senior Fellow at Harvard Business School, Joe Lassiter studies how high-potential ventures attacking the energy problem are being financed and how their innovations are being brought to market in different parts of the world. In the MBA and executive education programs, he teaches about the lessons learned from these ventures as well as potential improvements in business practices, regulation and government policy. Lassiter also supports University-wide efforts as a faculty fellow of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program and a faculty associate of the Harvard University Center for the Environment.

Following a 20-year career leading technology businesses, Lassiter joined HBS in 1996. He has taught courses in entrepreneurial finance, entrepreneurial marketing and innovation in business, energy & environment. For Harvard University, he taught courses in innovation & entrepreneurship to undergraduates, graduate students and post-doctoral fellows across the University and its affiliated hospitals. From its founding in 2010 until 2015, Lassuter was Faculty Chair of the University-wide Harvard Innovation Lab (Harvard i-lab).

Lassiter received his BS, MS, and PhD from MIT and was awarded National Science, Adams and McDermott Fellowships. He was elected to Sigma Xi.

More profile about the speaker
Joe Lassiter | Speaker | TED.com