ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxChange

Hans Rosling: The good news of the decade? We're winning the war against child mortality

Hans Rosling:最近十年的好消息?

Filmed:
900,534 views

Hans Rosling以其獨到的見解,重新解讀聯合國最近十年所報導的資料,發現了一項以前從未有人報導過的重量級好消息。在他的演說中,他揭露了統計數據上的盲點,這盲點掩蓋了最重要的事實。
- Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
We are here today今天
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今天我來到這裡,
00:17
because [the] United聯合的 Nations國家
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是因為聯合國
00:19
have defined定義 goals目標
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為國家的發展
00:21
for the progress進展 of countries國家.
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定了幾個目標,
00:23
They're called Millennium千年 Development發展 Goals目標.
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他們稱之為「千禧發展目標」。
00:26
And the reason原因 I really like these goals目標
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我喜歡這些目標的原因是,
00:29
is that there are eight of them.
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他們分成八個目標。
00:32
And by specifying確定 eight different不同 goals目標,
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這八個不同目標是由聯合國所訂定的,
00:34
the United聯合的 Nations國家 has said
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他們認為要讓一個國家
00:36
that there are so many許多 things needed需要
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為人民創造更好的生活,
00:38
to change更改 in a country國家
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有太多事情
00:40
in order訂購 to get the good life for people.
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是等著我們去做的。
00:42
Look here -- you have to end結束 poverty貧窮,
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看看這裡,我們應該終止貧窮、
00:44
education教育, gender性別,
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發展教育、性別平等、
00:46
child兒童 and maternal母系 health健康,
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重視孩童與母親的健康、
00:48
control控制 infections感染, protect保護 the environment環境
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控制傳染病、保護環境、
00:51
and get the good global全球 links鏈接 between之間 nations國家
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讓世界各國維持良好關係,
00:53
in every一切 aspect方面
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這些目標包涵了每一個面向,
00:55
from aid援助 to trade貿易.
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從援助到貿易都有。
00:58
There's a second第二 reason原因 I like these development發展 goals目標,
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我喜歡這幾個發展目標還有另一個原因,
01:01
and that is because each and every一切 one is measured測量.
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就是每一個目標都可以加以衡量。
01:04
Take child兒童 mortality死亡;
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舉孩童死亡率為例,
01:07
the aim目標 here is to reduce減少 child兒童 mortality死亡
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目標是要在1990年到2050年內,
01:09
by two-thirds三分之二,
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降低孩童死亡率
01:11
from 1990 to 2015.
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達三分之二,
01:14
That's a four percent百分 reduction減少 per year --
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也就是每年要下降4%,
01:18
and this, with measuring測量.
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這是可以衡量的。
01:20
That's what makes品牌 the difference區別
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這就是為什麼政治語言
01:22
between之間 political政治 talking like this
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和實際上為人民創造
01:24
and really going for the important重要 thing,
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更好的生活,
01:26
a better life for people.
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會有那麼大的差別。
01:29
And what I'm so happy快樂 about with this
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我之所以很高興,
01:31
is that we have already已經 documented記錄
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是因為我們終於看到,
01:33
that there are many許多 countries國家
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在亞洲、中東、
01:35
in Asia亞洲, in the Middle中間 East,
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拉丁美洲
01:37
in Latin拉丁 America美國 and East Europe歐洲
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和東歐的許多國家裡,
01:40
that [are] reducing減少 with this rate.
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這個比率確實在下降。
01:42
And even mighty威武 Brazil巴西 is going down with five percent百分 per year,
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即使偉大的巴西每年的孩童死亡率也下降了5%,
01:45
and Turkey火雞 with seven percent百分 per year.
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土耳其則下降了7%,
01:47
So there's good news新聞.
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這真是好消息。
01:49
But then I hear people saying, "There is no progress進展 in Africa非洲.
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但我聽到有人說:「非洲的情況並沒有改善啊...
01:52
And there's not even statistics統計 on Africa非洲
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我們連非洲的統計數據都看不到,
01:54
to know what is happening事件."
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要怎麼知道發生了什麼事?」
01:56
I'll prove證明 them wrong錯誤 on both points.
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我要來證明這些人錯了。
01:59
Come with me to the wonderful精彩 world世界 of statistics統計.
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和我一起來看看這些美妙的統計數據,
02:02
I bring帶來 you to the webpage網頁, ChildMortalityChildMortality.org組織,
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你可以上這個網頁:ChildMortality.org,
02:05
where you can take deaths死亡 in children孩子
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上面有每一個國家
02:07
below下面 five years年份 of age年齡 for all countries國家 --
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年齡小於五歲的孩童死亡數字,
02:10
it's doneDONE by U.N. specialists專家.
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這是由聯合國的專家所統計出來的,
02:12
And I will take Kenya肯尼亞 as an example.
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我就舉肯亞為例子好了。
02:14
Here you see the data數據.
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你看這個資料,
02:16
Don't panic恐慌 -- don't panic恐慌 now, I'll help you through通過 this.
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先別緊張,先別緊張,我來告訴你們怎麼看這些數據。
02:19
It looks容貌 nasty討厭, like in college學院
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這看起來很恐怖,就像你在大學時
02:21
when you didn't like statistics統計.
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最討厭上的統計課一樣,
02:23
But first thing, when you see dots like this,
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但是,當你看到這些點點的時候,
02:25
you have to ask yourself你自己:
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你得先問你自己一個問題:
02:27
from where do the data數據 come?
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這些數據是從哪裡來的?
02:29
What is the origin起源 of the data數據?
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原始數據在哪裡?
02:31
Is it so that in Kenya肯尼亞,
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在肯亞有沒有
02:33
there are doctors醫生 and other specialists專家
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醫生或其他專業人員,
02:35
who write the death死亡 certificate證書 at the death死亡 of the child兒童
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在孩童死去的時候,填寫一張死亡證明,
02:37
and it's sent發送 to the statistical統計 office辦公室?
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然後送到統計局去?
02:39
No -- low-income低收入 countries國家 like Kenya肯尼亞
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沒有,像肯亞這種低收入國家
02:42
still don't have that level水平 of organization組織.
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還沒有這種層級的機構組織,
02:45
It exists存在, but it's not complete完成
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是有這種組織沒錯,但是缺乏完整的運作功能,
02:47
because so many許多 deaths死亡 occur發生 in the home
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因為有許多孩童是在
02:50
with the family家庭,
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家裡死去,
02:52
and it's not registered註冊.
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沒有做任何登記。
02:54
What we rely依靠 on is not an incomplete殘缺 system系統.
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我們不能信任這種不完整的系統,
02:56
We have interviews面試, we have surveys調查.
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我們只能進行訪談,深入調查。
02:59
And this is highly高度 professional專業的
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這是一位極為專業的
03:01
female interviewers面試
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女性訪問員,
03:03
who sit down for one hour小時 with a woman女人
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她和一位女士坐在一起一個小時,
03:05
and ask her about [her] birth分娩 history歷史.
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詢問對方的生產資料,
03:07
How many許多 children孩子 did you have?
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你生了幾個小孩?
03:09
Are they alive?
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全都活著嗎?
03:11
If they died死亡, at what age年齡 and what year?
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死掉的孩子是在哪一年、幾歲的時候死去?
03:14
And then this is doneDONE in a representative代表 sample樣品
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這些會成為那個國家裡
03:16
of thousands數千 of women婦女 in the country國家
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成千上萬婦女的代表性樣本,
03:19
and put together一起 in what used to be called
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這些樣本會被蒐集起來,
03:21
a demographic人口 health健康 survey調查 report報告.
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放進人口健康調查的報告裡。
03:24
But these surveys調查 are costly昂貴,
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但這種調查需要很多經費,
03:26
so they can only be doneDONE [in] three-三- to five-year五年 intervals間隔.
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所以只能每隔三到五年才能做一次,
03:29
But they have good quality質量.
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但調查的品質很好,
03:31
So this is a limitation局限性.
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只是經費有些限制。
03:33
And all these colored有色 lines here are results結果;
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這些有顏色的線就是調查結果,
03:36
each color顏色 is one survey調查.
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每一種顏色代表每一次的調查。
03:38
But that's too complicated複雜 for today今天, so I'll simplify簡化 it for you,
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但這樣看起來太複雜了,所以我想要簡化一點,
03:41
and I give you one average平均 point for each survey調查.
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我就把每一次調查的平均值點出來好了,
03:44
This was 1977, 1988,
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這是1977年、1988年、
03:47
1992, '97
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1992年、1997年
03:49
and 2002.
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和2002年。
03:52
And when the experts專家 in the U.N.
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當聯合國的專家們
03:54
have got these surveys調查 in place地點 in their database數據庫,
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把這些數據放進資料庫,
03:57
then they use advanced高級 mathematical數學的 formulas公式
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他們就會用先進的數學公式
04:00
to produce生產 a trend趨勢 line, and the trend趨勢 line looks容貌 like this.
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來畫出一條趨勢線,像是這一條趨勢線,
04:03
See here -- it's the best最好 fit適合 they can get of this point.
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看這裡,這是他們畫出來的線,
04:06
But watch out --
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請你注意看,
04:08
they continue繼續 the line
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他們還把線
04:10
beyond the last point
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往後延伸了,
04:12
out into nothing.
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延伸到未來,
04:14
And they estimated預計 that in 2008,
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他們估計,在2008年,
04:17
Kenya肯尼亞 had per child兒童 mortality死亡 of 128.
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肯亞孩童的死亡率是128。
04:20
And I was sad傷心,
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我很難過,
04:22
because we could see
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因為我們本來以為,
04:24
this reversal翻轉 in Kenya肯尼亞
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在90年代肯亞的
04:26
with an increased增加 child兒童 mortality死亡 in the 90s.
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孩童死亡率達到高峰後,應該會下降,
04:29
It was so tragic悲慘.
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但沒有,真的很慘。
04:31
But in June六月, I got a mail郵件 in my inbox收件箱
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但我在六月的時候收到一封電子郵件,
04:34
from Demographic人口 Health健康 Surveys調查,
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是從人口健康調查局送出的郵件,
04:36
and it showed顯示 good news新聞 from Kenya肯尼亞.
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我看到了來自肯亞的好消息。
04:38
I was so happy快樂.
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我很高興,
04:40
This was the estimate估計 of the new survey調查.
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這是新調查做出的估計,
04:43
Then it just took another另一個 three months個月
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聯合國又花了三個月的時間,
04:45
for [the] U.N. to get it into their server服務器,
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把資料放進電腦裡,
04:47
and on Friday星期五 we got the new trend趨勢 line --
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星期五我們才收到新畫出來的趨勢線,
04:50
it was down here.
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從這裡開始下降了,
04:52
Isn't it nice不錯 -- isn't it nice不錯, yeah?
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很棒吧?這真的很棒,不是嗎?
04:54
I was actually其實, on Friday星期五, sitting坐在 in front面前 of my computer電腦,
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星期五的時候,我一整個上午都坐在電腦前面,
04:57
and I saw the death死亡 rate fall秋季
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看著死亡率下降,
04:59
from 128 to 84 just that morning早上.
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從128下降到84,
05:02
So we celebrated著名.
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我們高興地慶祝了起來。
05:04
But now, when you have this trend趨勢 line,
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但是,當你看到這條趨勢線的時候,
05:06
how do we measure測量 progress進展?
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要怎麼樣來衡量進步程度?
05:08
I'm going into some details細節 here,
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我現在來仔細講解
05:10
because [the] U.N. do it like this.
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聯合國的作法,
05:12
They start開始 [in] 1990 -- they measure測量 to 2009.
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他們是從1990年開始,一直衡量到2009年,
05:15
They say, "0.9 percent百分, no progress進展."
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他們發現:「只有0.9%,沒有進步。」
05:18
That's unfair不公平.
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這不合理,
05:20
As a professor教授, I think I have the right to propose提出 something differently不同.
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身為一位教授,我認為我有權利提出不同的見解,
05:23
I would say, at least最小 do this --
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我會說,至少要做這個分析,
05:25
10 years年份 is enough足夠 to follow跟隨 the trend趨勢.
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十年就足以看出趨勢了,
05:27
It's two surveys調查, and you can see what's happening事件 now.
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十年裡會有二次調查,你就可以看出實際的狀況,
05:30
They have 2.4 percent百分.
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其實是2.4%。
05:32
Had I been in the Ministry of Health健康 in Kenya肯尼亞,
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要是我是肯亞的衛生署長,
05:34
I may可能 have joined加盟 these two points.
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我就會把這二個點列入考慮。
05:37
So what I'm telling告訴 you
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我要告訴各位的是,
05:39
is that we know the child兒童 mortality死亡.
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我們已經知道孩童的死亡率,
05:41
We have a decent正經 trend趨勢.
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我們畫得出一條趨勢線,
05:43
It's coming未來 into some tricky狡猾 things then
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但我們在衡量這些千禧發展目標時,
05:45
when we are measuring測量 MDGs千年發展目標.
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有些陷阱是必須注意的,
05:47
And the reason原因 here for Africa非洲 is especially特別 important重要,
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尤其是對非洲來說格外重要,
05:50
because '90s was a bad decade,
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因為90年代是很不好的十年,
05:52
not only in Kenya肯尼亞, but across橫過 Africa非洲.
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不只是肯亞,整個非洲都很不好。
05:55
The HIVHIV epidemic疫情 peaked見頂.
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HIV病毒的擴散達到高峰;
05:57
There was resistance抵抗性 for the old malaria瘧疾 drugs毒品, until直到 we got the new drugs毒品.
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瘧疾已對舊的藥物產生抗藥性,直到我們開發出新藥才抑制下來;
06:00
We got, later後來, the mosquito蚊子 netting.
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我們後來也收到許多蚊帳;
06:02
And there was socio-economic社會經濟 problems問題,
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還有一些社會經濟的問題,
06:04
which哪一個 are now being存在 solved解決了 at a much better scale規模.
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現在才改善到較好的狀況。
06:07
So look at the average平均 here --
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現在來看看平均數,
06:09
this is the average平均 for all of sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲.
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這是撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲的平均數,
06:11
And [the] U.N. says
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聯合國說
06:13
it's a reduction減少 with 1.8 percent百分.
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下降了1.8%。
06:16
Now this sounds聲音 a little theoretical理論,
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我現在要講的會讓你以為很理論,
06:18
but it's not so theoretical理論.
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但是並不會,
06:20
You know, these economists經濟學家,
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這些經濟學家,
06:22
they love money, they want more and more of it, they want it to grow增長.
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他們愛錢,他們希望錢愈多愈好,他們喜歡看到成長,
06:25
So they calculate計算 the percent百分 annual全年 growth發展 rate of [the] economy經濟.
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所以他們老是在計算每年的經濟成長率;
06:28
We in public上市 health健康, we hate討厭 child兒童 death死亡,
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但我們這種公共衛生領域的人,我們討厭孩童死亡,
06:31
so we want less and less and less of child兒童 deaths死亡.
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我們希望孩童死亡人數愈少愈好,
06:33
So we calculate計算 the percent百分 reduction減少 per year,
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所以我們會計算每年的下降比率,
06:35
but it's sort分類 of the same相同 percentage百分比.
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但其實這二種都是同一種比率。
06:37
If your economy經濟 grows成長 with four percent百分,
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如果經濟成長了4%,
06:39
you ought應該 to reduce減少 child兒童 mortality死亡 four percent百分;
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孩童死亡率應該也會下降4%才對,
06:41
if it's used well and people are really involved參與
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因為如果經濟成長了,
06:44
and can get the use of the resources資源 in the way they want it.
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人們就會有足夠的資源去做他們想做的事。
06:47
So is this fair公平 now to measure測量 this over 19 years年份?
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那你覺得用19年的期間來衡量這個指標合理嗎?
06:50
An economist經濟學家 would never do that.
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經濟學家就不會這麼做。
06:53
I have just divided分為 it into two periods.
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我把整個期間分成二個期間來看,
06:55
In the 90s, only 1.2 percent百分,
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在1990年代,只有1.2%,
06:58
only 1.2 percent百分.
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只有1.2%。
07:00
Whereas now, second第二 gear齒輪 --
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現在則換到二檔--
07:02
it's like Africa非洲 had first gear齒輪,
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過去的非洲是在一檔,
07:04
now they go into second第二 gear齒輪.
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現在換到了二檔。
07:06
But even this
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但即使如此,
07:08
is not a fair公平 representation表示 of Africa非洲,
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還是不能合理代表非洲的狀況,
07:10
because it's an average平均,
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因為我們用的是平均數,
07:12
it's an average平均 speed速度 of reduction減少 in Africa非洲.
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也就是說,這是非洲平均的下降速度。
07:14
And look here when I take you into my bubble泡沫 graphs.
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我讓你們看看我畫的圖表,
07:17
Still here,
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和前面一樣,
07:19
child兒童 death死亡 per 1,000 on that axis.
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這個軸代表的是每千個孩童死亡的人數,
07:22
Here we have [the] year.
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這邊則代表年份。
07:24
And I'm now giving you a wider更寬的 picture圖片 than the MDG千年發展目標.
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我要讓你們看看比千禧發展目標更宏觀的圖表,
07:27
I start開始 50 years年份 ago
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我從50年前開始記錄,
07:29
when Africa非洲 celebrated著名 independence獨立 in most countries國家.
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那時非洲大部分的國家都才剛剛獨立,
07:32
I give you Congo剛果, which哪一個 was high,
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例如剛果,死亡率很高,
07:34
Ghana加納 -- lower降低. And Kenya肯尼亞 -- even lower降低.
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迦納比較低,肯亞更低一點。
07:36
And what has happened發生 over the years年份 since以來 then? Here we go.
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那以後又發生了什麼事?我們來看看,
07:39
You can see, with independence獨立, literacy讀寫能力 improved改善
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因為國家獨立了,人民的讀寫能力跟著提升;
07:42
and vaccinations接種疫苗 started開始, smallpox天花 was eradicated根除,
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人民接種牛痘疫苗,天花逐漸絕跡;
07:45
hygiene衛生 was improved改善, and things got better.
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衛生環境也改善了,每一件事都變得更好。
07:48
But then, in the '80s, watch out here.
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但我們看看這裡,1980年代的時候,
07:50
Congo剛果 got into civil國內 war戰爭,
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剛果發生了內戰,
07:52
and they leveled夷為平地 off here.
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所以他們就維持在這個水平線上,
07:54
Ghana加納 got very ahead, fast快速.
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迦納則持續下降,
07:56
This was the backlash反彈 in Kenya肯尼亞, and Ghana加納 bypassed繞過,
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肯亞稍微往上升一點,然後迦納超越肯亞,
07:59
but then Kenya肯尼亞 and Ghana加納 go down together一起 --
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接著肯亞和迦納就一起往下降,
08:01
still a standstill停頓 in Congo剛果.
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剛果還是維持在那個水平線上。
08:03
That's where we are today今天.
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到今天就是這副模樣。
08:05
You can see it doesn't make sense
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你們看看,把那些沒有改善的國家
08:08
to make an average平均 of this zero improvement起色
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和改善非常快的國家,放在一起平均,
08:11
and this very fast快速 improvement起色.
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是完全沒有道理的。
08:15
Time has come
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現在是該停止
08:17
to stop thinking思維 about sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲 as one place地點.
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把撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲視為一個整合區域的時候了,
08:21
Their countries國家 are so different不同,
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那裡每個國家都不一樣,
08:24
and they merit值得 to be recognized認可 in the same相同 way,
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他們不應該再被視為一個區域,
08:27
as we don't talk about Europe歐洲 as one place地點.
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就像我們不會以為歐洲是一個區域一樣。
08:29
I can tell you that the economy經濟 in Greece希臘 and Sweden瑞典 are very different不同 --
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我可以告訴各位,希臘和瑞典的經濟是完全不同的,
08:32
everyone大家 knows知道 that.
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大家都知道這一點,
08:34
And they are judged判斷, each country國家, on how they are doing.
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所以每一個國家的表現,都是被單獨評估的。
08:37
So let me show顯示 the wider更寬的 picture圖片.
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所以我們來看看宏觀的圖表,
08:40
My country國家, Sweden瑞典:
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我的國家,瑞典:
08:43
1800, we were up there.
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1800年的時候,我們在這上面,
08:46
What a strange奇怪 personality個性 disorder紊亂 we must必須 have,
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我們國家的個性真的很奇怪,
08:49
counting數數 the children孩子 so meticulously精心 in spite儘管 of a high child兒童 death死亡 rate.
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儘管我們精心統計小孩的出生數字,卻還有這麼高的孩童死亡率,
08:52
It's very strange奇怪. It's sort分類 of embarrassing尷尬.
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這真的很奇怪,我都有點不好意思了。
08:55
But we had that habit習慣 in Sweden瑞典, you know,
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但我們瑞典人就是有這種習慣,
08:57
that we counted all the child兒童 deaths死亡,
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我們會計算孩童的死亡率,
08:59
even if we didn't do anything about it.
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但卻也沒做什麼事來改善這個狀況。
09:01
And then, you see, these were famine飢荒 years年份.
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接下來,你們看看,這幾年鬧饑荒,
09:03
These were bad years年份, and people got fed美聯儲 up with Sweden瑞典.
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生活不好過,人們追求自由,
09:05
My ancestors祖先 moved移動 to the United聯合的 States狀態.
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所以我的祖先搬到了美國。
09:08
And eventually終於, soon不久 they started開始 to get better and better here.
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最後,很快地,死亡率下降得愈來愈快,
09:11
And here we got better education教育, and we got health健康 service服務,
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到了這裡,我們有更好的教育制度、醫療保健,
09:14
and child兒童 mortality死亡 came來了 down.
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孩童死亡率就下降到這裡。
09:16
We never had a war戰爭; Sweden瑞典 was in peace和平 all this time.
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瑞典從來沒有發生過戰爭,一直都處於和平狀態,
09:19
But look, the rate of lowering降低
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但是你看,瑞典孩童死亡率
09:21
in Sweden瑞典
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下降的速度
09:23
was not fast快速.
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並沒有那麼快,
09:25
Sweden瑞典 achieved實現 a low child兒童 mortality死亡
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瑞典之所以會讓孩童死亡率降到這麼低,
09:28
because we started開始 early.
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只是因為我們起步得很早。
09:31
We had primary school學校 actually其實
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我們的小學教育
09:33
started開始 in 1842.
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是在1842年開始的,
09:35
And then you get that wonderful精彩 effect影響
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所以在一個世代以後,
09:37
when we got female literacy讀寫能力
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我們才看到婦女讀寫能力
09:39
one generation later後來.
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大幅度提升所帶來的好處。
09:41
You have to realize實現 that the investments投資 we do in progress進展
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各位必須瞭解,為國家進步發展而投入的投資,
09:44
are long-term長期 investments投資.
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將是一段漫長的投資,
09:46
It's not about just five years年份 --
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不是短短五年的投資,
09:48
it's long-term長期 investments投資.
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而是更長遠的投資。
09:50
And Sweden瑞典 never reached到達 [the] Millennium千年 Development發展 Goal目標 rate,
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瑞典從來沒有達到千禧發展目標所要求的水準,
09:53
3.1 percent百分 when I calculated計算.
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我計算了一下,只有3.1%。
09:55
So we are off track跟踪 -- that's what Sweden瑞典 is.
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所以我們不合格,哈!這就是瑞典。
09:58
But you don't talk about it so much.
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不過不要告訴別人。
10:00
We want others其他 to be better than we were, and indeed確實, others其他 have been better.
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我們希望其他國家能有更好的表現,而其他國家也真的有更好的表現,
10:03
Let me show顯示 you Thailand泰國,
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我們來看看泰國,
10:05
see what a success成功 story故事, Thailand泰國 from the 1960s --
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看看他們成功的故事,泰國從1960年代
10:07
how they went down here
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下降到這裡,
10:09
and reached到達 almost幾乎 the same相同 child兒童 mortality死亡 levels水平 as Sweden瑞典.
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他們的孩童死亡率幾乎和瑞典一樣。
10:12
And I'll give you another另一個 story故事 -- Egypt埃及,
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還有另一個例子,埃及,
10:15
the most hidden, glorious輝煌 success成功 in public上市 health健康.
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他們在公衛領域的成就是最突出的,但也最不為人知。
10:18
Egypt埃及 was up here in 1960,
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埃及在1960年代的時候是在這上面,
10:20
higher更高 than Congo剛果.
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比剛果還要高,
10:22
The Nile尼羅河 Delta三角洲 was a misery苦難 for children孩子
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尼羅河三角洲附近的孩童,
10:25
with diarrheal腹瀉 disease疾病
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深受腹瀉、瘧疾
10:27
and malaria瘧疾 and a lot of problems問題.
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和其他疾病困擾。
10:29
And then they got the Aswan阿斯旺 Dam. They got electricity電力 in their homes家園,
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後來他們建了亞斯望水庫,每個人家裡都有電力,
10:32
they increased增加 education教育
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教育水準提升,
10:34
and they got primary health健康 care關心.
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也有了基礎的醫療體系,
10:36
And down they went, you know.
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所以死亡率就下降了。
10:38
And they got safer更安全 water, they eradicated根除 malaria瘧疾.
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他們的飲用水更為清潔,瘧疾也絕跡了,
10:41
And isn't it a success成功 story故事.
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這真的是一個成功的典範,
10:43
Millennium千年 Development發展 Goal目標 rates利率 for child兒童 mortality死亡
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讓我們看到千禧發展目標所訂的孩童死亡率,
10:46
is fully充分 possible可能.
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是完全有可能達到的。
10:48
And the good thing is
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好消息是,
10:50
that Ghana加納 today今天 is going with the same相同 rate
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迦納現在也以和埃及一樣快的速度
10:52
as Egypt埃及 did at its fastest最快的.
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降低孩童的死亡率;
10:55
Kenya肯尼亞 is now speeding超速 up.
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肯亞正在加速追趕。
10:57
Here we have a problem問題.
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但我們有個問題,
10:59
We have a severe嚴重 problem問題 in countries國家 which哪一個 are at a standstill停頓.
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有些國家的死亡率仍維持在相同的水準,這是嚴重的問題。
11:03
Now, let me now bring帶來 you to a wider更寬的 picture圖片,
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現在,我讓各位看看一張更宏觀的圖表,
11:06
a wider更寬的 picture圖片 of child兒童 mortality死亡.
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有關孩童死亡率的圖表,
11:08
I'm going to show顯示 you the relationship關係
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我要讓各位知道,在這個軸上的
11:10
between之間 child兒童 mortality死亡 on this axis here --
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孩童死亡率,
11:13
this axis here is child兒童 mortality死亡 --
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這個軸是孩童死亡率,
11:16
and here I have the family家庭 size尺寸.
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和家庭人數多寡之間的關係,
11:19
The relationship關係 between之間 child兒童 mortality死亡 and family家庭 size尺寸.
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也就是孩童死亡率和家中小孩數之間的關係。
11:21
One, two, three, four children孩子 per woman女人:
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一、二、三、四,這是每位婦女所生的小孩數,
11:23
six, seven, eight children孩子 per woman女人.
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還有人生了六、七、八個小孩。
11:25
This is, once一旦 again, 1960 --
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我們再來看看1960年代,
11:27
50 years年份 ago.
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也就是50年前,
11:29
Each bubble泡沫 is a country國家 --
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每一個圓點代表一個國家,
11:31
the color顏色, you can see, a continent大陸.
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顏色則代表該國所處的大陸,
11:33
The dark黑暗 blue藍色 here is sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲.
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像是深藍色就代表撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲,
11:35
And the size尺寸 of the bubble泡沫 is the population人口.
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圓點的大小代表該國的人口數。
11:39
And these are
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這些是
11:41
the so-called所謂 "developing發展" countries國家.
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大家眼中的「開發中國家」,
11:43
They had high, or very high, child兒童 mortality死亡
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他們的孩童死亡率非常高,
11:46
and family家庭 size尺寸, six to eight.
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家中小孩有六到八個。
11:49
And the ones那些 over there,
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在這裡的這些國家,
11:51
they were so-called所謂 Western西 countries國家.
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則是一般人眼中的西方國家,
11:53
They had low child兒童 mortality死亡
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孩童死亡率很低,
11:55
and small families家庭.
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小孩人數也很少。
11:57
What has happened發生?
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這是怎麼一回事?
11:59
What I want you [to do] now is to see with your own擁有 eyes眼睛
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我要你們親眼看看
12:02
the relation關係 between之間 fall秋季 in child兒童 mortality死亡
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孩童死亡率的下降,
12:05
and decrease減少 in family家庭 size尺寸.
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是和家中小孩數減少有關的。
12:08
I just want not to have any room房間 for doubt懷疑 --
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我要你們每一個人
12:10
you have to see that for yourself你自己.
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都親眼看看這張圖的變化,
12:12
This is what happened發生. Now I start開始 the world世界.
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就是這麼一回事。現在,世界在改變,
12:15
Here we come down with the eradication根除 of
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教育水準提升了,
12:17
smallpox天花, better education教育,
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天花也不見了,教育水準
12:19
health健康 service服務.
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和醫療體系都提升了,
12:21
It got down there -- China中國 comes into the Western西 box here.
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大家都下降到這裡了,現在中國擠進西方國家框框裡了,
12:24
And here Brazil巴西 is in the Western西 Box.
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巴西也加入了,
12:26
India印度 is approaching接近. The first African非洲人 countries國家 coming未來 into the Western西 box,
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印度就快進來了,有一個非洲國家也進到了這個區塊,
12:29
and we get a lot a new neighbors鄰居.
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我們一下子多了好多新鄰居,
12:31
Welcome歡迎 to a decent正經 life.
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歡迎大家一起提升生活品質,
12:33
Come on. We want everyone大家 down there.
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來吧!每個人都下來這裡吧!
12:35
This is the vision視力 we have, isn't it.
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這是我們的夢想,不是嗎?
12:37
And look now, the first African非洲人 countries國家 here are coming未來 in.
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看看,首次有非洲國家進到這個區塊了,
12:40
There we are today今天.
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這就是現在這個世界的樣子。
12:43
There is no such這樣 thing
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根本沒有什麼
12:45
as a "Western西 world世界" and "developing發展 world世界."
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「西方國家」和「開發中國家」的差別。
12:47
This is the report報告 from [the] U.N.,
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這一份是聯合國的報告,
12:49
which哪一個 came來了 out on Friday星期五.
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星期五才剛出刊的,
12:51
It's very good -- "Levels水平 and Trends趨勢 in Child兒童 Mortality死亡" --
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這份報告非常棒:「孩童死亡率及其趨勢」,
12:54
except this page.
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除了這一頁以外。
12:56
This page is very bad;
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這一頁很糟,
12:58
it's a categorization分類 of countries國家.
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它把國家做了分類,
13:01
It labels標籤 "developing發展 countries國家," -- I can read from the list名單 here --
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標題是「開發中國家」--我可以把名單讀出來,
13:04
developing發展 countries國家: Republic共和國 of Korea韓國 -- South Korea韓國.
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開發中國家:南韓...
13:07
Huh?
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啊?
13:09
They get Samsung三星, how can they be [a] developing發展 country國家?
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他們有三星這種大公司,怎麼可能是開發中國家?
13:12
They have here Singapore新加坡.
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還有,新加坡...
13:14
They have the lowest最低 child兒童 mortality死亡 in the world世界, Singapore新加坡.
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新加坡的孩童死亡率可是全世界最低的耶!
13:16
They bypassed繞過 Sweden瑞典 five years年份 ago,
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他們在五年前就超越了瑞典,
13:18
and they are labeled標記 a developing發展 country國家.
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竟然還只是開發中國家?
13:20
They have here Qatar卡塔爾.
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卡達也在名單上,
13:22
It's the richest首富 country國家 in the world世界 with Al Jazeera半島電視台.
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卡達可是全世界最有錢的國家耶...他們還擁有半島電視台耶!
13:24
How the heck赫克 could they be [a] developing發展 country國家?
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卡達怎麼會是開發中國家?
13:26
This is crap擲骰子.
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這簡直胡說八道!
13:28
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
13:31
The rest休息 here is good -- the rest休息 is good.
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報告的其他部分都很好,都很好。
13:33
We have to have a modern現代 concept概念,
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我們的觀念應該要跟得上時代,
13:35
which哪一個 fits適合 to the data數據.
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才能讀得懂這些資料。
13:37
And we have to realize實現
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我們必須瞭解,
13:39
that we are all going to into this, down to here.
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所有的國家都應該下降到這個水準,
13:42
What is the importance重要性 now with the relations關係 here.
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重要的是要瞭解其中的關係。
13:45
Look -- even if we look in Africa非洲 --
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看看,即使我們把焦點放在非洲,
13:47
these are the African非洲人 countries國家.
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這些就是非洲國家,
13:49
You can clearly明確地 see the relation關係 with falling落下 child兒童 mortality死亡
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你還是可以清楚地看到,在孩童死亡率下降的同時,
13:52
and decreasing減少 family家庭 size尺寸,
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家中小孩數也在減少,
13:54
even within Africa非洲.
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就算在非洲也一樣,
13:56
It's very clear明確 that this is what happens發生.
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這是一個很明顯的事實。
13:58
And a very important重要 piece of research研究 came來了 out on Friday星期五
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西雅圖的健康評估機構在星期五
14:01
from the Institute研究所 of Health健康 Metrics度量 and Evaluation評估 in Seattle西雅圖
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發表了一篇很重要的研究報告,
14:05
showing展示 that almost幾乎 50 percent百分
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他們指出,孩童死亡率之所以下降,
14:07
of the fall秋季 in child兒童 mortality死亡
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有一半可以歸功於
14:09
can be attributed由於 to female education教育.
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女性接受教育所帶來的影響。
14:12
That is, when we get girls女孩 in school學校,
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也就是說,當我們把女孩們送到學校去,
14:15
we'll get an impact碰撞 15 to 20 years年份 later後來,
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15到20年後,我們就會看到實際的效用發生,
14:17
which哪一個 is a secular世俗 trend趨勢 which哪一個 is very strong強大.
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這種影響的效用是很強烈的。
14:20
That's why we must必須 have that long-term長期 perspective透視,
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所以我們得把眼光放遠,
14:23
but we must必須 measure測量 the impact碰撞
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至少要以十年
14:25
over 10-year-年 periods.
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做為衡量的區間。
14:27
It's fully充分 possible可能
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要讓這些國家的
14:29
to get child兒童 mortality死亡 down in all of these countries國家
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孩童死亡率下降,是絕對可能的,
14:31
and to get them down in the corner
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他們一定能下降到這個角落,
14:33
where we all would like to live生活 together一起.
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達到和其他國家一樣的水準。
14:37
And of course課程, lowering降低 child兒童 mortality死亡
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當然,從人道主義的觀點來看,
14:40
is a matter of utmost importance重要性
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孩童死亡率的降低
14:43
from humanitarian人道主義 aspects方面.
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有其絕對的重要性,
14:45
It's a decent正經 life for children孩子,
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我們所談的,
14:47
we are talking about.
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是要保障孩童基本的生活品質。
14:49
But it is also a strategic戰略 investment投資
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這當然也算是我們全體人類
14:52
in the future未來 of all mankind人類,
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對未來的重要策略性投資,
14:54
because it's about the environment環境.
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因為這攸關環境的現況。
14:57
We will not be able能夠 to manage管理 the environment環境
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如果我們不能控制全世界的人口成長,
14:59
and avoid避免 the terrible可怕 climate氣候 crisis危機
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我們就無法保有良好的環境,
15:01
if we don't stabilize穩定 the world世界 population人口.
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也就無法避免可怕的氣候變遷,
15:03
Let's be clear明確 about that.
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我們一定得清楚瞭解這一點。
15:05
And the way to do that,
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要達到這個目標,
15:07
that is to get child兒童 mortality死亡 down, get access訪問 to family家庭 planning規劃
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首先我們得降低孩童死亡率,提倡家庭計畫,
15:10
and behind背後 that drive駕駛 female education教育.
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而且讓女性接受教育,
15:13
And that is fully充分 possible可能. Let's do it.
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我們絕對有可能辦到,就這麼辦吧!
15:15
Thank you very much.
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謝謝各位!
15:17
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Marie Wu
Reviewed by Geoff Chen

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com