We the Future
Johan Rockström: 5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world
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In a talk about how we can build a robust future without wrecking the planet, sustainability expert Johan Rockström debuts the Earth3 model -- a new methodology that combines the UN Sustainable Development Goals with the nine planetary boundaries, beyond which earth's vital systems could become unstable. Learn more about five transformational policies that could help us achieve inclusive and prosperous world development while keeping the earth stable and resilient.
Johan Rockstrom - Sustainability expert
Johan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen. Full bio
Johan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
In 2015, we saw two fantastic,
hopeful breakthroughs for humanity.
hopeful breakthroughs for humanity.
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First, the adoption of
the Sustainable Development Goals,
the Sustainable Development Goals,
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the collective, universal
plan for humanity
plan for humanity
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to eradicate hunger,
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[promote] good economic
development and good health,
development and good health,
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within global environmental targets.
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Secondly, after 21 years of negotiations,
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we adopted the legally binding
Paris Agreement,
Paris Agreement,
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all nations in the world keeping
global warming under two degrees Celsius,
global warming under two degrees Celsius,
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aiming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.
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Today, three years down the line,
we're still in the hand-waving business.
we're still in the hand-waving business.
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Now, I think it's time
to step back one step
to step back one step
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and recognize that I wonder if the world
leaders really knew what they signed
leaders really knew what they signed
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at the General Assembly three years ago.
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These are universal, aspirational,
transformational goals
transformational goals
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for inclusive, prosperous humanity
on a stable earth system.
on a stable earth system.
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But there are underlying problems.
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We have inherent contradictions
between these goals,
between these goals,
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where there's the risk of pursuing
one favored goal at the expense of others.
one favored goal at the expense of others.
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Take, for example, Goal 8,
on decent work and economic growth.
on decent work and economic growth.
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If we continue doing that
by exploiting natural resources
by exploiting natural resources
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and burning fossil fuels,
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it will be impossible to reach Goal 13.
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Three years down the line,
we simply must admit
we simply must admit
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we're seeing limited action
to really, really address this
to really, really address this
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as an inclusive, collective,
universal package.
universal package.
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Now, this requires us
to step back one step.
to step back one step.
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I think we have to ask ourselves
some hard questions:
some hard questions:
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Do we have any chance of accomplishing
the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030?
the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030?
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Are there actually inherent trade-offs
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that are not compatible
with our current development paradigm?
with our current development paradigm?
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But are there, perhaps, synergies
where we can really accelerate change?
where we can really accelerate change?
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And is it really a people-planet agenda,
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really taking seriously
the social and economic aspirational goals
the social and economic aspirational goals
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within the life-support systems on earth?
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Now, citizens across the world
have started to recognize
have started to recognize
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that we're facing global
rising environmental risks;
rising environmental risks;
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in fact, that a stable planet
is a prerequisite
is a prerequisite
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to have good human well-being on earth.
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We need to define a safe operating space
on a stable earth system,
on a stable earth system,
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and the planetary boundary
framework was introduced
framework was introduced
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by the scientific community in 2009
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to do exactly that.
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It has now been widely embraced
across the world
across the world
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in policy, business and communities
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as a framework for sustainable development
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in the Anthropocene.
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This slide really shows the framework
with the nine environmental processes
with the nine environmental processes
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that regulate the stability
of the earth system,
of the earth system,
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providing a safe operating space,
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where we'll have a high chance
of having good human well-being
of having good human well-being
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and prosperity and equity.
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If we move into the yellow zone,
we enter a dangerous uncertainty zone;
we enter a dangerous uncertainty zone;
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and into the red, we have a high
likelihood of crossing tipping points
likelihood of crossing tipping points
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that could take us irreversibly away
from the ability of the earth system
from the ability of the earth system
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to provide social and economic
well-being for humanity.
well-being for humanity.
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Now, we can today, scientifically,
quantify these boundaries,
quantify these boundaries,
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providing us a stable
earth system for humanity.
earth system for humanity.
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But we have to go beyond this
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and recognize the Sustainable
Development Goals --
Development Goals --
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if we really want
to seriously accomplish them --
to seriously accomplish them --
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must now occur within
this safe operating space.
this safe operating space.
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We need to achieve SDGs within PBs.
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But dear friends, not even this is enough.
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We need to recognize
that the Sustainable Development Goals
that the Sustainable Development Goals
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is 12 years away.
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It's only a milestone.
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It is the bull's-eye
that we need to go through
that we need to go through
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and zoom ourselves towards transformations
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where we can have a good future
for all co-citizens on earth,
for all co-citizens on earth,
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nine billion plus,
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within a stable earth system
in 2050 and beyond.
in 2050 and beyond.
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This is a quest,
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and in order to really explore this
and not have only opinions about it,
and not have only opinions about it,
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we gathered the scientific community,
the best thinkers and modelers
the best thinkers and modelers
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and started to develop a completely
new complex systems dynamic model,
new complex systems dynamic model,
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the Earth-3 model,
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building on models that have been around
for the last 50 years.
for the last 50 years.
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And here it is.
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This is a fantastic piece of work.
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This has a climate module, a biosphere
module, a global economic model;
module, a global economic model;
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it has algorithms, it has the whole room
of fantastic accomplishments.
of fantastic accomplishments.
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This is what turns us scientists on.
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(Laughter)
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I mean, this is just
a beautiful piece of work?
a beautiful piece of work?
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And I'd just love to spend the whole
evening walking this through with you,
evening walking this through with you,
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but I'll make you disappointed.
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I cannot do that.
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In fact, the only thing I can do with you
is just to assure you
is just to assure you
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that this is the first time it's done.
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Nobody has ever tried
to really analytically combine
to really analytically combine
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the Sustainable Development Goals
with planetary boundaries.
with planetary boundaries.
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And we were able to find patterns
and really convergent trends
and really convergent trends
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that gives us a lot of confidence
in our ability to now project
in our ability to now project
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economic development,
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resources use from water, food and energy,
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population growth, income per person,
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yet along these consistent
and systemic pathways.
and systemic pathways.
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So, it's the first time we have
a robust opportunity
a robust opportunity
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to really explore the futures of ability
of attaining the SDGs within PBs.
of attaining the SDGs within PBs.
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Now, how do we do this?
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Well, look at this.
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Here, you have the data
coming from the real world,
coming from the real world,
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calibrated from 1970-2015:
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100,000 data points around the world,
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building on seven regions' ability,
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of really picking on all these
Sustainable Development Goals.
Sustainable Development Goals.
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Now, one example of how
we calibrated this,
we calibrated this,
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here you have [data] for
Sustainable Development Goals
Sustainable Development Goals
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on eradicating poverty, health,
education and food.
education and food.
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And here you have in the bubbles
the seven regions of the world,
the seven regions of the world,
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how they move up until 2015
in our empirical observations
in our empirical observations
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in relation to GDP per capita,
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giving these universal convergent trends,
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which enabled us to create regressions
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that could make us able to do
simulations into the future,
simulations into the future,
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all the way until 2050,
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showing the ability along
the lines here to attain the SDGs.
the lines here to attain the SDGs.
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Now, this gave us the opportunity
of doing several scenarios,
of doing several scenarios,
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testing different possible futures:
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business as usual, global transformations,
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investment schemes in business,
different governance options,
different governance options,
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policies, finance --
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really, to explore what
the future can look like
the future can look like
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in our ability to attain
the SDGs within PBs.
the SDGs within PBs.
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And the results, I can tell you,
really surprised us.
really surprised us.
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And this will be
the first time it's shown.
the first time it's shown.
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It should actually not even
be referenced outside of this room.
be referenced outside of this room.
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Now, it actually is presented
along two axes.
along two axes.
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The y-axis here shows our ability
to stay within planetary boundaries.
to stay within planetary boundaries.
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The higher up, the closer you are
to the safe operating space.
to the safe operating space.
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On the x-axis are
the Sustainable Development Goals;
the Sustainable Development Goals;
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the further to the right,
the more of the SDGs we fulfill.
the more of the SDGs we fulfill.
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We all want to be in
the upper right-hand corner,
the upper right-hand corner,
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the safe and just world for the future.
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Now, the point you see there is 1980.
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We were in a situation where we actually
were in a safe operating space
were in a safe operating space
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but not meeting so many of the SDGs.
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Here's the trend up until 2015.
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So this is the conventional world,
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which is actually delivering
on an increasing number of SDGs,
on an increasing number of SDGs,
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lifting millions of people out of poverty,
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but doing it at the expense
of the safe operating space on earth.
of the safe operating space on earth.
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Now, this is the scenario
business as usual, into the future.
business as usual, into the future.
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If we just move on as today,
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we will be able to deliver
on some of the SDGs,
on some of the SDGs,
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but we'll do it at the expense
of the stability of the earth system.
of the stability of the earth system.
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Now, what if we go faster
on economic growth
on economic growth
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and really ally on one percent
increase per year of income
increase per year of income
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and an even tripling
of the world economy by 2050?
of the world economy by 2050?
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That would give us
the following trajectory.
the following trajectory.
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We would, yes, go a little bit further
on SDG accomplishments,
on SDG accomplishments,
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but still at the expense of the risk
of destabilizing the planet.
of destabilizing the planet.
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But what if we really go harder?
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What if we increase our ability
to deliver on our promises by 30 percent
to deliver on our promises by 30 percent
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across all sectors in society,
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from climate to our trade agreements?
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A harder scenario would take us
a little bit better,
a little bit better,
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but still, we're failing on the SDGs,
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and we are not accomplishing
a safe operating space for humanity.
a safe operating space for humanity.
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So this really led us to a quite
disappointing conclusion,
disappointing conclusion,
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that we will actually, even if we go
conventional futures, fail on the SDGs
conventional futures, fail on the SDGs
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and transgress planetary boundaries.
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We need some radical thinking.
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We need to go into
a transformative, disruptive future,
a transformative, disruptive future,
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where we start thinking
outside of the box.
outside of the box.
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The modeling and engagement
and dialogues enable us to identify
and dialogues enable us to identify
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five transformations that could
actually potentially take us there.
actually potentially take us there.
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The first one is to cut emissions
by half every decade
by half every decade
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along the scientific pathway to Paris,
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doubling investments in renewable energy,
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creating a global energy democracy,
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allowing us to meet several of the SDGs.
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The second is a rapid shift
towards sustainable food systems,
towards sustainable food systems,
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investing one percent per year
in sustainable intensification
in sustainable intensification
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and really moving towards implementing
and investing in solutions
and investing in solutions
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that we already have available today.
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The third is really to shift
our development paradigm
our development paradigm
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and learn from many
of the developing countries
of the developing countries
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that have moved very fast.
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What if we could have
an economic growth such as in China,
an economic growth such as in China,
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while doing it within
the environmental parameters
the environmental parameters
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of an ecological civilization?
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Fourth, a redistribution of wealth.
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What if we could [agree]
that the richest 10 percent
that the richest 10 percent
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could not allow themselves to amass
more than 40 percent, maximum,
more than 40 percent, maximum,
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of national incomes --
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a drastic redistribution of wealth,
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reforming the ability
of equity across regions?
of equity across regions?
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And finally, fifth, a radical increase
in more education, health,
in more education, health,
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access to work, contraception,
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investing largely in women
across the world,
across the world,
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allowing us to deliver on SDGs
on gender, inequality,
on gender, inequality,
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economics and urban development.
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Now, if we would push ourselves
across all these five --
across all these five --
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we tested this, and it would give us
an amazing journey
an amazing journey
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towards the safe and just
operating space on earth.
operating space on earth.
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It shows us that even with
a conservative, empirically based,
a conservative, empirically based,
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complex system dynamics model,
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we are at a state where we can
actually think of transformations
actually think of transformations
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over the next 12 years and beyond
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that can take us up into
the safe operating space
the safe operating space
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and deliver on aspirational
social and economic goals.
social and economic goals.
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This is actually quite uplifting,
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despite the fact that we're
not moving along this trajectory.
not moving along this trajectory.
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So, in summary:
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we now, three years into
the operational delivery on the SDGs,
the operational delivery on the SDGs,
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must draw a line
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and conclude that we're not
delivering on our promises,
delivering on our promises,
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and not only that, we're running the risks
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of future generations having
an even tougher ability,
an even tougher ability,
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because of the risk of pushing
the earth system beyond tipping points.
the earth system beyond tipping points.
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In fact, we are facing even
a risk of a hothouse earth,
a risk of a hothouse earth,
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where we will undermine
and create geopolitical instabilities
and create geopolitical instabilities
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that could actually make life
even more tough
even more tough
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for billions of people on earth.
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This, in all honesty,
really, really scares me.
really, really scares me.
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But that's also why
I'm standing here tonight,
I'm standing here tonight,
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because the window
of success is still open.
of success is still open.
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The earth system is still resilient.
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She is still providing us
with ecosystem services and functions
with ecosystem services and functions
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that can allow us a transition
back into a safe operating space.
back into a safe operating space.
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But we need radically different thinking.
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We need to see this
as an incredible wake-up call
as an incredible wake-up call
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but also an opportunity
for transformative change,
for transformative change,
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where we shift gears
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and really start thinking
of the SDGs as a transformative agenda
of the SDGs as a transformative agenda
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within a safe operating space on earth.
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In other words, we can build
a safe and just world.
a safe and just world.
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We just have to really,
really get on with it.
really get on with it.
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And let's do it. Thank you.
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Johan Rockstrom - Sustainability expertJohan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen.
Why you should listen
Johan Rockström leads the Stockholm Resilience Centre, focusing on a new approach to sustainability: the capacity to use change and crisis to spur renewal and innovative thinking. In 2009, working with an international team of scientists, he identified and quantified a set of nine planetary boundaries within which humanity can continue to develop and thrive for generations to come -- while crossing them could generate abrupt or irreversible environmental changes.
Since then, the boundaries research has spread among international organizations, governments, NGOs and companies and has been adopted as a new framework to guide the discussion about "sustainable growth". It is currently debated as a core part of setting the criteria that will follow the UN's Millennium Development Goals. Rockström also chairs Future Earth, an initiative to advance integrated science for global sustainability.
Johan Rockstrom | Speaker | TED.com