TED2003
Jared Diamond: Why do societies collapse?
Jared Diamond, gizarteek zergatik egiten duten gainbehera azaltzen
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Zergatik hutsegiten dute gizarteek? Burdin Aroko Groenlandiako norvegiarrengandik, oihanez soilduriko Pazko uhartetik eta gaur egungo Montanatik ateratako ikasbideak oinarritzat harturik, gainbehera hurbil dela adierazten duten zantzuez eta nola -- garaiz antzematen badiegu--aurrea har diezaiekegun haiei esaten digu Jared Diamond-ek.
Jared Diamond - Civilization scholar
Jared Diamond investigates why cultures prosper or decline -- and what we can learn by taking a broad look across many kinds of societies. Full bio
Jared Diamond investigates why cultures prosper or decline -- and what we can learn by taking a broad look across many kinds of societies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
I think all of us have been interested, at one time or another,
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Uste dut guri guztioi interesatu izan zaizkigula noiz edo noiz
00:22
in the romantic mysteries of all those societies that collapsed,
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gainbehera egin zuten gizarte horien guztien misterio erromantikoak,
00:27
such as the classic Maya in the Yucatan, the Easter Islanders,
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hala nola maia klasikoenak eta Yucatangoa, Pazko uharteko biztanleenak,
00:32
the Anasazi, Fertile Crescent society, Angor Wat, Great Zimbabwe
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Anasazienak, Ekialde Hurbil emankorreko gizartearenak, Angkor Wat-ena, Zimbabwe Handiarena
00:36
and so on. And within the last decade or two,
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eta abar. Eta azken pare bat hamarkadatan,
00:40
archaeologists have shown us that there were environmental problems
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arkeologoek erakutsi digute ingurumen-arazoak izan zirela
00:44
underlying many of these past collapses.
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iraganeko gainbehera horietako askoren azpian.
00:47
But there were also plenty of places in the world
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Baina leku asko zeuden munduan
00:48
where societies have been developing for thousands of years
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non gizarteak garatu ziren milaka urtean,
00:52
without any sign of a major collapse,
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inolako gainbehera garrantzitsuren zantzurik gabe,
00:54
such as Japan, Java, Tonga and Tikopea. So evidently, societies
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hala nola Japonia, Java, Tonga eta Tikopia. Beraz, nabarmenki, zenbait
01:00
in some areas are more fragile than in other areas.
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lekutako gizarteak kalteberagoak dira beste leku batzuetakoak baino.
01:03
How can we understand what makes some societies more fragile
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Nola jakin dezakegu zerk eragiten duen gizarte batzuk beste batzuk
01:06
than other societies? The problem is obviously relevant
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baino kalteberagoak izatea? Arazoa, jakina, esanahi handikoa da
01:12
to our situation today, because today as well, there are
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gure gaurko egoerari begira, gaur ere badirelako
01:15
some societies that have already collapsed, such as Somalia
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gizarte batzuk dagoeneko gainbehera egin dutenak, hala nola Somalia
01:19
and Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia. There are also
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eta Rwanda eta Jugoslavia ohia. Badira, halaber,
01:22
societies today that may be close to collapse, such as Nepal, Indonesia and Columbia.
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gaur egun gizarteak gainbeheratik hurbil egon daitezkeenak, esate baterako Nepal, Indonesia eta Columbia.
01:27
What about ourselves?
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Eta zer esan geure buruaz?
01:30
What is there that we can learn from the past that would help us avoid
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Zer ikas dezakegu iraganetik lagungarri gerta dakigukeena,
01:36
declining or collapsing in the way that so many past societies have?
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iraganeko gizarte askok izan duten gainbehera saihesteko?
01:41
Obviously the answer to this question is not going
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Bistan denez, galdera horren erantzuna ez da
01:43
to be a single factor. If anyone tells you that there is a single-factor
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faktore bakarraren menpeko izango. Norbaitek esaten badizu faktore bakarrean
01:47
explanation for societal collapses, you know right away
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oinarrituriko azalpen bat dutela gizarteen gainbeherek, badakizu garbi
01:50
that they're an idiot. This is a complex subject.
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hura ergela dela. Gai konplexua da hori.
01:54
But how can we make sense out of the complexities of this subject?
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Baina, nola jabetu gaitezke zentzuz gai horren konplexutasunez?
01:58
In analyzing societal collapses, I've arrived at a
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Gizarteen gainbeherak aztertuz. Bost puntuko
02:01
five-point framework -- a checklist of things that I go through
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eredu batera iritsi naiz. Eta azaltzera noa bost puntuok
02:05
to try and understand collapses. And I'll illustrate that five-point
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eta saiatzera gainbeherak ulertzen. Eta bost puntuko
02:10
framework by the extinction of the Greenland Norse society.
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eredu hori Groenlandiako norvegiar gizartearen suntsipenaren bitartez azalduko dut.
02:15
This is a European society with literate records,
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Hura europar gizarte bat da, literatur ondarea duena,
02:18
so we know a good deal about the people and their motivation.
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beraz nahikoa dakigu jende hartaz eta beren motibazioaz.
02:22
In AD 984 Vikings went out to Greenland, settled Greenland,
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984. urtean vikingoak Groenlandiara joan ziren, han kokatu ziren
02:26
and around 1450 they died out -- the society collapsed,
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eta 1450 inguruan desagertu egin ziren -- gizarteak gainbehera egin zuen,
02:30
and every one of them ended up dead.
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eta haiek guztiak hil egin ziren azkenean.
02:32
Why did they all end up dead? Well, in my five-point framework,
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Zergatik hil ziren guztiak? Hara, nire bost puntuko ereduan,
02:36
the first item on the framework is to look for human impacts
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lehenbizikoa gizakiek ingurumenean izandako eragina da:
02:40
on the environment: people inadvertently destroying the resource
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jendeak oharkabean suntsitu egiten ditu
02:43
base on which they depend. And in the case of the Viking Norse,
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irauteko behar dituen oinarrizko baliabideak. Eta, vikingo norvegiarren kasuan,
02:48
the Vikings inadvertently caused soil erosion and deforestation,
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oharkabean lurraren higadura eta oihan-soiltzea eragin zituzten,
02:53
which was a particular problem for them because
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eta hori arazo berezia zen haientzat,
02:56
they required forests to make charcoal, to make iron.
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oihanak behar zituztelako egur-ikatza egiteko, burdina lortzeko.
02:59
So they ended up an Iron Age European society, virtually
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Beraz, azkenean Burdin Aroko europar gizarte bat
03:03
unable to make their own iron. A second item on my checklist is
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ez zen gai bere burdina lortzeko. Nire zerrendako bigarren elementua
03:08
climate change. Climate can get warmer or colder or dryer or wetter.
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klimaren aldaketa da. Klima bihur daiteke beroago edo hotzago edo idorrago edo bustiago.
03:14
In the case of the Vikings -- in Greenland, the climate got colder
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Groenlandiako vikingoen kasuan, klima hotzago bihurtu zen
03:18
in the late 1300s, and especially in the 1400s. But a cold climate
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1300. urteen azkenaldean, eta bereziki 1400. urteetan. Baina klima hotz bat
03:22
isn't necessarily fatal, because the Inuit -- the Eskimos inhabiting
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ez da nahitanahiez hilgarria, zeren inuitak --
03:27
Greenland at the same time -- did better, rather than worse,
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Groenlandian garai berean bizi ziren eskimalak -- okerrago ez, baizik eta hobeto ibili ziren
03:29
with cold climates. So why didn't the Greenland Norse as well?
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klima hotzetan. Beraz, zergatik ez zitzaien gauza bera gertatu Groenlandiako norvegiarrei?
03:33
The third thing on my checklist is relations with neighboring
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Nire zerrendako hirugarren aztergaia inguruko
03:37
friendly societies that may prop up a society. And if that
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gizarte bati aitzinatzen lagun diezaieketen gizarte adiskideekiko harremanak dira.
03:41
friendly support is pulled away, that may make a society
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Eta adiskidantzazko laguntza hori desagertzen bada, horrek eragin
03:44
more likely to collapse. In the case of the Greenland Norse,
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dezake gizarteak errazago gainbehera egitea. Groenlandiako norvegiarren kasuan,
03:48
they had trade with the mother country -- Norway --
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harreman komertzialak zituzten jatorrizko herrialdearekin, Norvegiarekin,
03:50
and that trade dwindled: partly because Norway got weaker,
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eta merkataritza hori gutxitu egin zen, partez Norvegia ahuldu zelako,
03:54
partly because of sea ice between Greenland and Norway.
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partez Groenlandia eta Norvegia arteko itsasoa jelatu zelako.
03:59
The fourth item on my checklist is relations with hostile societies.
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Nire zerrendako laugarren elementua gizarte etsaiekiko harremanak dira.
04:05
In the case of Norse Greenland, the hostiles were the Inuit --
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Groenlandiako norvegiarren kasuan, etsaiak inuitak ziren.
04:08
the Eskimos sharing Greenland -- with whom the Norse
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Norvegiarrekin Groenlandia partekatzen zuten eskimalekiko
04:12
got off to bad relationships. And we know that the Inuit
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harremanak gaiztotu egin ziren. Eta badakigu inuitek
04:16
killed the Norse and, probably of greater importance,
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norvegiarrak hil zituztela, eta, seguru asko garrantzi handikoa izan zena,
04:19
may have blocked access to the outer fjords, on which
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norvegiarrek urte-sasoi kritiko batean itsasoratzeko
04:23
the Norse depended for seals at a critical time of the year.
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ezinbestekoak zituzten fiordoak blokeatu zituztela.
04:27
And then finally, the fifth item on my checklist is the political,
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Eta azkenik, nire zerrendako azken elementua gizarteak
04:31
economic, social and cultural factors in the society that make it
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ingurumeneko arazoak atzematea eta konpontzea bideragarriago
04:35
more or less likely that the society will perceive and solve its
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edo zailago egiten duten faktore ekonomiko, sozial eta politikoek
04:39
environmental problems. In the case of the Greenland Norse,
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osatzen dute. Groenlandiako norvegiarren kasuan,
04:44
cultural factors that made it difficult for them
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beren arazoak konpontzea zaildu zuten faktore kulturalak
04:46
to solve their problems were: their commitments to a
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kristau gizartea izateak zekarzkien betebeharrak izan ziren, katedraletan asko inbertituz,
04:49
Christian society investing heavily in cathedrals; their being
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lehiakortasunean nagusiki oinarriturik mailakaturiko gizartea izatea eta inuitak
04:53
a competitive-ranked chiefly society; and their scorn for the Inuit,
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mespretxatzea eta haiengandik ez ikasi nahi izatea. Beraz, bost ataleko
04:59
from whom they refused to learn. So that's how the five-part
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ereduak balio du
05:02
framework is relevant to the collapse and eventual extinction of the Greenland Norse.
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Groenlandiako norvegiarren gainbehera eta suntsipena azaltzeko.
05:07
What about a society today?
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Zer esan egungo gizarte batez?
05:10
For the past five years, I've been taking my wife and kids to
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Azken bost urteotan nire emaztearekin eta familiarekin
05:14
Southwestern Montana, where I worked as a teenager
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Montanaren hegomendebaldean bizi izan naiz, mutil gaztea nintzela
05:17
on the hay harvest. And Montana, at first sight, seems
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belar biltzen lan egin nuen lekuan. Eta Montanak begiratu batean ematen du
05:21
like the most pristine environment in the United States.
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Amerikako Estatu Batuetako ingurumenik naturalena duela.
05:24
But scratch the surface, and Montana suffers from serious problems.
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Baina azala harrotu, eta Montanak arazo larriak dituela ikusten da.
05:29
Going through the same checklist: human environmental impacts?
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Goazen zerrenda berbera errepasatzera: gizakiok ingurumenean eragiten ditugun inpaktuak.
05:33
Yes, acute in Montana. Toxic problems from mine waste
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Bai, Montanan larriak dira. Meatzeetako hondakinek eragindako toxizitate-arazoek
05:38
have caused damage of billions of dollars.
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milaka milioi dolarreko kalteak ekarri dituzte.
05:41
Problems from weeds, weed control, cost Montana nearly
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Belar txarren kontrola Montanari ia
05:44
200 million dollars a year. Montana has lost agricultural areas
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200 milioi dolar kostatzen zaio urtean. Montanan gatzek
05:48
from salinization, problems of forest management,
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hondatu dituzten nekazaritza-arloak, oihanen kudeaketako arazoak,
05:52
problems of forest fires. Second item on my checklist:
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oihanetako suteen arazoak. Nire zerrendako bigarren elementua:
05:56
climate change. Yes -- the climate in Montana is getting warmer
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klima-aldaketa. Bai -- Montanan klima beroago eta
05:59
and drier, but Montana agriculture depends especially on irrigation
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idorrago bihurtzen ari da, baina metaturiko
06:03
from the snow pack, and as the snow is melting -- for example,
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elurretatik datorren urez ureztatzea beharrezkoa du Montanako laborantzak, eta elurra urtzea, adibidez,
06:07
as the glaciers in Glacier National Park are disappearing --
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Glaziarren Parke Nazionaleko glaziarrak desagertu ahala,
06:10
that's bad news for Montana irrigation agriculture.
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albiste txarra da Montanako ureztatze-laborantzarentzat.
06:14
Third thing on my checklist: relations with friendlies
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Nire zerrendako hirugarren elementua: gizartea manten dezaketen
06:16
that can sustain the society. In Montana today, more than half of
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adiskideekiko harremanak dira. Montanan gaur egun, diru-sarreren erdia baino
06:20
the income of Montana is not earned within Montana,
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gehiago ez dator Montanatik bertatik,
06:24
but is derived from out of state: transfer payments from
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baizik eta estatuaz kanpotik dator: gizarte-segurantzako transferentziek
06:27
social security, investments and so on --
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inbertsioek, etab.
06:30
which makes Montana vulnerable to the rest of the United States.
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Montana AEBren enparauaren pentzudan egotea dakarte.
06:34
Fourth: relations with hostiles. Montanans have the same problems
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Laugarrena: etsaiekiko harremanak. Montanatarrek gainerako
06:38
as do all Americans, in being sensitive to problems
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estatubatuarrek dituzten arazo berberak dituzte,
06:42
created by hostiles overseas affecting our oil supplies,
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atzerriko etsaiek sortuak, petrolio-hornikuntzan eta
06:46
and terrorist attacks. And finally, last item on my checklist:
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eraso terroristetan eragina dutenak. Eta azkenik, nire zerrendako azken elementua:
06:52
question of how political, economic, social, cultural attitudes
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horretan jarrera politiko, ekonomiko, sozial eta kulturalek
06:55
play into this. Montanans have long-held values, which today
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nola jokatzen duten. Montanatarrek sakonki erroturiko balioak dituzte,
07:00
seem to be getting in the way of their solving their own problems.
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beren arazoak konpontzeko bidean oztopoak jartzen dizkietela diruditenak.
07:03
Long-held devotion to logging and to mines and to agriculture,
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Oihanetik egurra ateratzearekiko,meatzeekiko eta laborantzarekiko duten atxikimendua,
07:07
and to no government regulation; values that worked well
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eta gobernuaren erregulaziorik ez izatea. Balio horiek ondo funtzionatzen zuten
07:11
in the past, but they don't seem to be working well today.
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iraganean, baina ez dirudi gaur egun ondo funtzionatzen dutenik.
07:15
So, I'm looking at these issues of collapses
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Beraz, gainbeheren arazo horiek aztertzen ari naiz
07:17
for a lot of past societies and for many present societies.
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iraganeko gizarte askotan eta gaur egungo gizarte askotan.
07:22
Are there any general conclusions that arise?
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Atera al daitezke ondorio orokor batzuk?
07:24
In a way, just like Tolstoy's statement about every unhappy marriage
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Nola edo hala, Tolstoik zoritxarreko ezkontza guztiak desberdinak direla
07:29
being different, every collapsed or endangered society is different --
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zioenean esan zuena esan daiteke kasu honetan ere: gainbehera etorritako edo horretarako
07:32
they all have different details. But nevertheless, there are certain
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arriskuan dauden gizarte guztiek xehetasunak dituztela desberdinak, baina hala ere,
07:36
common threads that emerge from these comparisons
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badituztela tasun erkide batzuk, agertzen direnak konparatzen direnean
07:39
of past societies that did or did not collapse
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gainbehera egin zuten edo ez zuten iraganeko gizarteak
07:42
and threatened societies today. One interesting common thread
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gaur egun mehatxaturik dauden gizarteekin. Ezaugarri erkide interesgarri batek
07:49
has to do with, in many cases, the rapidity of collapse
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zerikusia du, kasu askotan, gainbeheraren lastertasunarekin,
07:53
after a society reaches its peak. There are many societies
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gizartea bere puntu gorenera heldu ostean. Gizarte asko dira
07:57
that don't wind down gradually, but they build up -- get richer
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ez direnak pixkanaka jausten, baizik eta eraikitzen direnak, aberasten
08:00
and more powerful -- and then within a short time, within a few decades
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eta ahaltsuago bihurtzen direnak, eta denbora laburraren buruan, gailurrera heldu ondoko
08:04
after their peak, they collapse. For example,
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hamarkada batzuetan, gainbehera egiten dutenak. Adibidez,
08:06
the classic lowland Maya of the Yucatan began to collapse in the
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Yucatango lur behereetako maia gizarte klasikoak 800. urteen hasieran
08:12
early 800s -- literally a few decades after the Maya were building
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egin zuen gainbehera, literalki maiek beren monumenturik
08:15
their biggest monuments, and Maya population was greatest.
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handienak eraikitzen ari zirenetik, eta maien biztanleria handiena zenetik hamarkada batzuetara.
08:20
Or again, the collapse of the Soviet Union took place
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Edo, orobat, Sobietar Batasunaren gainbehera
08:23
within a couple of decades, maybe within a decade, of the time
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Sobietar Batasuna ahaltsuena zenetik pare bat hamarkadatara, agian hamarkada baten buruan
08:27
when the Soviet Union was at its greatest power.
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gertatu zen.
08:30
An analogue would be the growth of bacteria in a petri dish.
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Analogia bat bakterio batek Petriren kaxa batean duen ugalpena izan liteke.
08:35
These rapid collapses are especially likely where there's
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Gainbehera laster horiek bereziki irispidean dauden baliabideak baliabideen
08:38
a mismatch between available resources and resource consumption,
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kontsumoarekin bat ez datozenean gerta litezke,
08:43
or a mismatch between economic outlays and economic potential.
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edo inbertsio ekonomikoak potentzial ekonomikoarekin bat ez datozenean.
08:47
In a petri dish, bacteria grow. Say they double every generation,
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Petriren kaxa batean bakterioa ugaldu egiten da. Demagun belaunaldi bakoitzean bikoiztu egiten dela,
08:52
and five generations before the end the petri dish is 15/16ths empty,
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eta ahitu baino bost belaunaldi lehenago Petriren kaxaren 15 hamaseiren hutsik daudela
08:57
and then the next generation's 3/4ths empty, and the next generation
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eta hurrengo belaunaldian 3 laurden hutsik daudela eta hurrengo belaunaldian
09:01
half empty. Within one generation after the petri dish still
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erdia hutsik dagoela. Petriren kaxaren erdia hutsik zegoenetik belaunaldi batera guztiz
09:05
being half empty, it is full. There's no more food and the bacteria have collapsed.
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beterik dagoela. Ez dago janari gehiago eta bakterioak gainbehera egiten du.
09:10
So, this is a frequent theme:
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Beraz, sarri gertatzen den gauza da
09:12
societies collapse very soon after reaching their peak in power.
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gizarteek gainbehera egitea, ahalmenaren puntu gorenera heldu eta berehala.
09:17
What it means to put it mathematically is that, if you're concerned
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Matematika erabiliz esateko, gaur gizarte batek kezkatzen bazaitu,
09:19
about a society today, you should be looking not at the value
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ez zenioke begiratu behar funtzio matematikoaren balioari,
09:24
of the mathematical function -- the wealth itself -- but you should
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ugaritasunari berari, baizik eta
09:27
be looking at the first derivative and the second derivatives
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funtzioaren lehen deribatuari eta bigarren deribatuari.
09:30
of the function. That's one general theme. A second general theme
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Hori gai orokorra da. Bigarren gai orokor bat
09:35
is that there are many, often subtle environmental factors that make
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da, badirela ingurumeneko faktore asko, sarri sentikorrak izaten direnak eta
09:40
some societies more fragile than others. Many of those factors
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gizarte batzuk beste batzuk baino kalteberagoak izatea eragiten dutenak
09:44
are not well understood. For example, why is it that in the Pacific,
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eta ez direnak ondo ezagutzen. Adibidez, zergatik gertatzen da hori
09:48
of those hundreds of Pacific islands, why did Easter Island end up as
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Ozeano Bareko ehunka uharteetan, zergatik gertatu zen Pazko uhartean
09:52
the most devastating case of complete deforestation?
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inoizko oihan-soiltzerik suntsikorrena?
09:56
It turns out that there were about nine different environmental
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Gertatzen da han bazirela bederatzi ingurumen-faktore diferente,
09:59
factors -- some, rather subtle ones -- that were working against
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batzuk nahiko sentikorrak, Pazko uharteko biztanleen aurka
10:03
the Easter Islanders, and they involve fallout of volcanic tephra,
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jokatzen ari zirenak, besteak beste sumendietako harriak eta laba jaustea,
10:08
latitude, rainfall. Perhaps the most subtle of them
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latitudea, euri-prezipitazioak. Agian faktorerik sentikorrena
10:11
is that it turns out that a major input of nutrients
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da Ozeano Bareko uharteetako ingurumenak babesten dituen
10:14
which protects island environments in the Pacific is from
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mantenugaien sarrera garrantzitsu bat
10:18
the fallout of continental dust from central Asia.
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Asiaren erdialdetik datorren hautsaren prezipitazioa dela.
10:21
Easter, of all Pacific islands, has the least input of dust
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Pazko uharteak jasotzen du, Ozeano Bareko uharteen artean, hautsik gutxiena
10:25
from Asia restoring the fertility of its soils. But that's
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lurren emankortasuna berreskuratzeko. Baina faktore hori
10:29
a factor that we didn't even appreciate until 1999.
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ez genuen ezagutu ere egiten 1999 arte.
10:34
So, some societies, for subtle environmental reasons,
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Beraz, gizarte batzuk, ingurumenari loturiko arrazoi batzuengatik,
10:36
are more fragile than others. And then finally,
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kalteberagoak dira beste batzuk baino. Eta azkenik,
10:39
another generalization. I'm now teaching a course
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beste generalizazio batzuk. Zeren ez bainaiz ari ikastaro bat ematen
10:42
at UCLA, to UCLA undergraduates, on these collapses
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UCLAn, UCLAko graduatu gabeko ikasleei, gizarteen gainbehera
10:45
of societies. What really bugs my UCLA undergraduate students is,
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horietaz. UCLAko graduatu gabeko ikasleak benetan gogaitzen dituena da,
10:49
how on earth did these societies not see what they were doing?
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nolatan ez zuten gizarte horiek ikusi zer ari ziren egiten?
10:52
How could the Easter Islanders have deforested their environment?
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Nolatan soildu zituzten beren oihanak Pazko uharteko biztanleek?
10:55
What did they say when they were cutting down the last palm tree?
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Zer esan zuten azken palmondoa botatzen ari zirenean?
10:59
Didn't they see what they were doing? How could societies
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Ez al zuten ikusten zer ari ziren egiten? Nolatan ez ziren konturatu
11:02
not perceive their impacts on the environments and stop in time?
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zer inpaktu ari ziren eragiten beren ingurumenetan eta ez ziren garaiz gelditu?
11:07
And I would expect that, if our human civilization carries on,
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Eta espero al nezake gure giza zibilizazioak jarraitzen badu,
11:14
then maybe in the next century people will be asking,
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agian hurrengo mendean, jendeak galdetuko duela
11:17
why on earth did these people today in the year 2003 not see
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zergatik gaurko jendeak 2003an ez zituen ikusi
11:21
the obvious things that they were doing and take corrective action?
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gertatzen ari ziren gauza nabarmenak eta ez zituen erremedioak jarri?
11:25
It seems incredible in the past. In the future, it'll seem
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Iraganekoak sinetsi ezinezkoa dirudi. Etorkizunean
11:28
incredible what we are doing today. And so I've been
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sinetsi ezinezkoa irudituko zaie egun egiten ari garena. Eta horrela
11:31
trying to develop a hierarchical set of considerations
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saiatzen ari izan naiz kontsiderazio multzo hierarkiko bat garatzen,
11:36
about why societies fail to solve their problems --
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gizarteek beren arazoak konpontzeko garaian huts egiteko dauden arrazoiez.
11:40
why they fail to perceive the problems or, if they perceive them,
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Zergatik huts egiten dute arazoez jabetzeko garaian, edo haietaz jabetzen badira,
11:42
why they fail to tackle them. Or, if they tackle them,
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zergatik huts egiten dute haiei erantzuterakoan? Edo, haiei erantzuterakoan huts egiten badute,
11:45
why do they fail to succeed in solving them?
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zergatik huts egiten dute arazoa gainditzerakoan?
11:48
I'll just mention two generalizations in this area.
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Bi generalizazio bakarrik aipatuko ditut arlo horretan.
11:52
One blueprint for trouble, making collapse likely,
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Oker jokatzeko oinarrizko arrazoi bat, gainbehera eragin dezakeena,
11:55
is where there is a conflict of interest between the short-term
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erabakiak hartzen dituzten eliteen epe laburreko interesen
11:58
interest of the decision-making elites and the long-term
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eta oro har gizartearen epe luzeko interesen arteko gatazka da,
12:02
interest of the society as a whole, especially if the elites
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batez ere eliteak gai baldin badira
12:06
are able to insulate themselves from the consequences
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beren buruak beren jokabideen ondorioetatik libratzeko.
12:08
of their actions. Where what's good in the short run for the elite
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Epe laburrean elitearentzat ona dena
12:12
is bad for the society as a whole, there's a real risk of the elite
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txarra baldin bada gizartearentzat oro har, benetako arriskua dago
12:16
doing things that would bring the society down in the long run.
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eliteak gizartea galbidera eramango duten gauzak egiteko.
12:19
For example, among the Greenland Norse --
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Adibidez, Groenlandiako norvegiarren artean --
12:21
a competitive rank society -- what the chiefs really wanted
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lehiakortasunaren araberako gizartea izaki -- agintariek benetan nahi zutena
12:24
is more followers and more sheep and more resources
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jarraitzaile gehiago eta ardi gehiago eta baliabide gehiago izatea zen,
12:27
to outcompete the neighboring chiefs. And that led the chiefs
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inguruko agintarien gainetik jartzeko. Eta horrek eraman zituen agintariak
12:30
to do what's called flogging the land: overstocking the land,
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lurra zigortzera: lurra neurriz kanpo ustiatzera,
12:34
forcing tenant farmers into dependency. And that made
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nekazariak menpekotasunera kondenatuz. Eta horrek
12:38
the chiefs powerful in the short run,
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ahaltsu bihurtu zituen agintariak epe laburrean,
12:42
but led to the society's collapse in the long run.
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baina gizartea gainbeherara eraman zuen epe luzean.
12:46
Those same issues of conflicts of interest are acute
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Interes-gatazken kontu horietxek larriak dira
12:49
in the United States today. Especially because
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Amerikako Estatu Batuetan gaur egun. Bereziki
12:52
the decision makers in the United States are frequently
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AEBko erabakitzaileak sarri
12:56
able to insulate themselves from consequences
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gai izaten direlako ondorioetatik libratzeko
12:59
by living in gated compounds, by drinking bottled water
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itxituraz inguraturiko urbanizazioetan biziz, botilako ura edanez, etab.
13:02
and so on. And within the last couple of years,
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Eta azken pare bat urtean,
13:05
it's been obvious that the elite in the business world
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nabaria izan da negozioen munduko eliteak
13:09
correctly perceive that they can advance
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garbi ikusi duela bere epe laburreko interesak aurrera
13:11
their short-term interest by doing things that are
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atera ditzakeela berarentzat onak baina gizartearentzat
13:14
good for them but bad for society as a whole,
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oro har txarrak diren gauzak eginez,
13:16
such as draining a few billion dollars out of Enron
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hala nola milaka miloi dolar Enron-etik eta
13:19
and other businesses. They are quite correct
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beste negozio batzuetatik drainatuz. Aski garbi dago
13:23
that these things are good for them in the short term,
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gauza horiek onak direla haientzat epe laburrean,
13:26
although bad for society in the long term.
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nahiz eta txarrak izan gizartearentzat epe luzean.
13:29
So, that's one general conclusion about why societies
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Beraz horixe da ondorio orokor bat gizarteek
13:32
make bad decisions: conflicts of interest.
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erabaki okerrak hartzeko dauden arrazoiez: interesen arteko gatazkak.
13:36
And the other generalization that I want to mention
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Eta aipatu nahi dudan beste generalizazio bat da
13:40
is that it's particularly hard for a society to make
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bereziki gogorra dela gizarte batentzat
13:42
quote-unquote good decisions when there is a conflict involving
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erabaki onak hartzea, zenbait egoeratan egokiak izan arren,
13:48
strongly held values that are good in many circumstances
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beste egoera batzuetan kaskarrak diren ongi erroturiko balioekin
13:53
but are poor in other circumstances. For example,
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gatazka dagoenean. Adibidez,
13:56
the Greenland Norse, in this difficult environment,
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Groenlandiako norvegiarren kasuan,
13:59
were held together for four-and-a-half centuries
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lau mende eta erdian erlijioarekiko betebeharrek
14:02
by their shared commitment to religion,
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eta kohesio sozial sendoak elkarturik mantendu zituzten.
14:05
and by their strong social cohesion. But those two things --
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Baina gauza biok --
14:09
commitment to religion and strong social cohesion --
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erlijioarekiko betebeharrak eta kohesio sozial sendoak --
14:12
also made it difficult for them to change at the end
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aldi berean zaildu egin zien aldatzea eta
14:15
and to learn from the Inuit. Or today -- Australia.
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inuitengandik ikastea. Edo gaur egun, Australia.
14:18
One of the things that enabled Australia to survive
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Australiari, Europako zibilizaziotik urrun kokatu zenean,
14:21
in this remote outpost of European civilization
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250 urtean irautea ahalbidetu zioten gauzetako bat
14:24
for 250 years has been their British identity.
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identitate britainiarra izan zen.
14:28
But today, their commitment to a British identity
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Baina gaur egun, haiek identitate britaniarrarekiko duten atxikimenduak
14:32
is serving Australians poorly in their need to adapt
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ez die askorik balio Asian duten egoerara moldatzeko.
14:35
to their situation in Asia. So it's particularly difficult
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Horrela, bereziki zaila da
14:39
to change course when the things that get you in trouble
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aldatzea arazoak sortzen dizkizuten gauzak
14:43
are the things that are also the source of your strength.
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zure sendotasunaren oinarria ere badirenean.
14:47
What's going to be the outcome today?
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Zein izango da ondorioa gaur egun?
14:49
Well, all of us know the dozen sorts of ticking time bombs
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Hara, guk guztiok ezagutzen ditugu dozenaka erloju-bonba
14:55
going on in the modern world, time bombs that have fuses
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moduko batzuk mundu modernoan, hamarkada gutxi batzuetarako
15:01
of a few decades to -- all of them, not more than 50 years,
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metxak dituztenak --denek ere, ez 50 urte baino gehiagorako,
15:05
and any one of which can do us in; the time bombs of water,
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eta horietako edozein leher dakiguke. Uraren, lurraren
15:10
of soil, of climate change, invasive species,
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klima-aldaketaren, espezie inbaditzaileen
15:14
the photosynthetic ceiling, population problems, toxics, etc., etc. --
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fotosintesi-sabaiaren, biztanleria-arazoen, produktu toxikoen, eta abarren erloju-bonbak --
15:19
listing about 12 of them. And while these time bombs --
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horietako 12 zerrenda daitezke. Eta erloju-bonba horietako batzuek --
15:23
none of them has a fuse beyond 50 years, and most of them
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horietako batek bakarrik ere ez du 50 urte baino gehiagorako metxarik, eta
15:25
have fuses of a few decades -- some of them, in some places,
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badira metxak hamarkada gutxi batzuetarako -- horietako batzuek zenbait lekutan
15:28
have much shorter fuses. At the rate at which we're going now,
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askoz metxa laburragoak dituzte. Orain daramagun martxan,
15:32
the Philippines will lose all its accessible loggable forest
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Filipinek beren oihan ustiagarri guztiak galduko dituzte
15:36
within five years. And the Solomon Islands are only
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bost urteren buruan. Eta Solomon uharteetan urtebete bakarrik
15:39
one year away from losing their loggable forest,
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falta zaie beren oihan ustiagarriak galtzeko,
15:42
which is their major export. And that's going to be spectacular
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eta hori da beren esportazio nagusia. Eta hori izugarria izango da
15:44
for the economy of the Solomons. People often ask me,
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Solomon uharteetako ekonomiarentzat. Jendeak askotan galdetzen dit,
15:48
Jared, what's the most important thing that we need to do
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Jared, zein da egin behar dugun gauzarik inportanteena
15:51
about the world's environmental problems?
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munduko ingurumen-arazoei dagokienez?
15:53
And my answer is, the most important thing we need to do
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Eta nire erantzuna hauxe da: egin behar dugun gauzarik inportanteena
15:55
is to forget about there being any single thing that is
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egin behar dugun gauzarik inportanteena bat bakarra dela
15:58
the most important thing we need to do.
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ahaztea da.
16:00
Instead, there are a dozen things, any one of which could do us in.
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Aitzitik, dozenaka gauza dira, salba gaitzaketenak.
16:03
And we've got to get them all right, because if we solve 11,
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Eta haiek guztiak ondo egitea lortu behar dugu, zeren 11 soluzionatzen baditugu,
16:06
we fail to solve the 12th -- we're in trouble. For example,
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eta hamabigarrena soluzionatzean huts egiten badugu, arazoak izango ditugu. Adibidez,
16:09
if we solve our problems of water and soil and population,
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urarekin eta lurrarekin ditugun arazoak konpontzen baditugu,
16:12
but don't solve our problems of toxics, then we are in trouble.
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baina ez baditugu konpontzen produktu toxikoekin ditugun arazoak, gaizki ibiliko gara.
16:18
The fact is that our present course is a non-sustainable course,
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Kontua da gure oraingo martxa ez dela jasangarria,
16:23
which means, by definition, that it cannot be maintained.
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eta horrek esan nahi du definizioz ezin dela mantendu.
16:27
And the outcome is going to get resolved within a few decades.
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Eta ondorioak hamarkada batzuk beharko ditu konpontzeko.
16:34
That means that those of us in this room who are less than
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Horrek esan nahi du gela honetan gaudenon artean 50 edo 60 urte baino
16:37
50 or 60 years old will see how these paradoxes are resolved,
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gutxiago ditugunok ikusiko dugula paradoxa horiek nola konpontzen diren,
16:41
and those of us who are over the age of 60 may not see
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eta 60 urtetik gora ditugunok ezin izango dugula
16:44
the resolution, but our children and grandchildren certainly will.
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soluzioa ikusi, baina gure seme-alabek eta bilobek seguru ikusiko dutela.
16:48
The resolution is going to achieve either of two forms:
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Soluzioak bi forma hauetakoren bat izango du:
16:51
either we will resolve these non-sustainable time-fuses
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edo konpontzen ditugu jasangarriak ez diren metxa horiek
16:56
in pleasant ways of our own choice by taking remedial action,
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geuk aukeratzen ditugun bide atseginak erabiliz edota
17:01
or else these conflicts are going to get settled
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bestela gatazka horiek gure esku ez dauden modu ez-atseginetan
17:04
in unpleasant ways not of our choice -- namely, by war,
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-- bereziki gerren, gaixotasunen edo goseteen bidez aldatuko dira.
17:08
disease or starvation. But what's for sure is that our
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Baina segurua da gure martxa ez-jasangarria
17:12
non-sustainable course will get resolved in one way or another
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era batera edo bestera soluzionatuko dela
17:14
in a few decades. In other words, since the theme of this session
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hamarkada batzuen buruan. Bestela esateko, saio hau
17:18
is choices, we have a choice. Does that mean that we should
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aukerez denez, badugu aukera. Horrek esan nahi al du
17:23
get pessimistic and overwhelmed? I draw the reverse conclusion.
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ezkorrak izan eta etsi egin behar dugula? Nik alderantzizko ondorioa ateratzen dut.
17:28
The big problems facing the world today are not at all
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Munduak gaur egun dituen arazo handiak ez daude inola ere
17:31
things beyond our control. Our biggest threat is not an asteroid
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gure kontrolaz haraindi. Dugun mehatxurik handiena ez da
17:35
about to crash into us, something we can do nothing about.
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gainera etorriko zaigun asteroide bat, ezer egiterik uzten ez digun ezer.
17:39
Instead, all the major threats facing us today are problems
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Ostera, gaur egun aurrean ditugun mehatxu nagusiak
17:42
entirely of our own making. And since we made the problems,
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erabat gure esku dauden arazoak dira. Eta arazoak sortzen ditugunez,
17:46
we can also solve the problems. That then means that it's
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konpondu ere egin ditzakegu. Horrek esan nahi du erabat
17:50
entirely in our power to deal with these problems.
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gure esku dagoela arazo horiek konpontzea.
17:54
In particular, what can all of us do? For those of you
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Zehazki, guk guztiok zer egin dezakegu? Aukera horietan
17:57
who are interested in these choices, there are lots of things
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interesaturik zaudetenontzat, gauza asko egin
18:00
you can do. There's a lot that we don't understand,
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ditzakezue. Ulertzen ez ditugun gauza asko daude
18:04
and that we need to understand. And there's a lot that
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ulertu behar ditugunak. Eta gauza asko daude dagoeneko
18:07
we already do understand, but aren't doing, and that
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ulertzen ditugunak, baina egiten ez ditugunak, eta
18:11
we need to be doing. Thank you.
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egin behar ditugunak. Eskerrik asko.
18:13
(Applause)
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(Txaloak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jared Diamond - Civilization scholarJared Diamond investigates why cultures prosper or decline -- and what we can learn by taking a broad look across many kinds of societies.
Why you should listen
In his books Guns, Germs and Steel and Collapse (and the popular PBS and National Geographic documentaries they inspired), big-picture scholar Jared Diamond explores civilizations and why they all seem to fall. Now in his latest book, The World Until Yesterday, Diamond examines small, traditional, tribal societies -- and suggests that modern civilization is only our latest solution to survival.
Diamond’s background in evolutionary biology, geography and physiology informs his integrated vision of human history. He posits that success -- and failure -- depends on how well societies adapt to their changing environment.
Jared Diamond | Speaker | TED.com