TEDxCaltech
Colin Camerer: When you're making a deal, what's going on in your brain?
Colin Camerer: Nevroznanost, teorija iger, opice
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Ko se dva poskušata dogovoriti – ali tekmujeta ali sodelujeta – kaj se v resnici dogaja znotraj njunih možganov? Vedenjski ekonomist Colin Camerer razkriva v raziskavi, kako smo zelo malo lahko predvidimo kaj drugi mislijo. V presenetljivi študiji predstavlja da bi šimpanzi pri tem lahko bili pravzaprav boljši od nas. (Posneto na TEDxCalTech.)
Colin Camerer - Behavioral economist
Colin Camerer is a leading behavioral economist who studies the psychological and neural bases of choice and strategic decision-making. Full bio
Colin Camerer is a leading behavioral economist who studies the psychological and neural bases of choice and strategic decision-making. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm going to talk about the strategizing brain.
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Govoril bom o strategijah možganov.
00:14
We're going to use an unusual combination of tools
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Uporabili bomo nenavadno
kombinacijo orodij
kombinacijo orodij
00:17
from game theory and neuroscience
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iz teorije iger in nevroznanosti,
00:19
to understand how people interact socially when value is on the line.
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da bi razumeli komunikacijo
v družbi, ko gre za neko vrednost.
v družbi, ko gre za neko vrednost.
00:22
So game theory is a branch of, originally, applied mathematics,
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Teorija iger je izvirno veja
uporabne matematike,
uporabne matematike,
00:26
used mostly in economics and political science, a little bit in biology,
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ki se uporablja v ekonomiji,
političnih vedah in v biologiji,
političnih vedah in v biologiji,
00:28
that gives us a mathematical taxonomy of social life
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daje nam matematično taksonomijo
družbenega življenja
družbenega življenja
00:32
and it predicts what people are likely to do
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in predvideva, kaj ljudje ponavadi počnejo
00:34
and believe others will do
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in verjamejo, da bodo drugi storili
00:35
in cases where everyone's actions affect everyone else.
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v primerih, ko dejanja vsakogar
vplivajo na vse druge.
vplivajo na vse druge.
00:38
That's a lot of things: competition, cooperation, bargaining,
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To je veliko stvari:
konkurenca, sodelovanje, pogajanje,
konkurenca, sodelovanje, pogajanje,
00:42
games like hide-and-seek, and poker.
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igre, kot so skrivalnice in poker.
00:45
Here's a simple game to get us started.
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Začnimo z eno preprosto igro.
00:48
Everyone chooses a number from zero to 100,
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Vsakdo izbere številko od 0 do 100,
00:50
we're going to compute the average of those numbers,
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izračunali bomo povprečje teh števil
00:52
and whoever's closest to two-thirds of the average wins a fixed prize.
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in, kdor bo najbližji dvem tretjinam
povprečja dobi fiksno nagrado.
povprečja dobi fiksno nagrado.
00:56
So you want to be a little bit below the average number,
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Torej hočemo biti malo
pod povprečnim številom,
pod povprečnim številom,
00:59
but not too far below, and everyone else wants to be
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vendar ne preveč spodaj,
enako, kot vsi drugi,
enako, kot vsi drugi,
01:01
a little bit below the average number as well.
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ki bi radi bili rahlo pod povprečjem.
01:03
Think about what you might pick.
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Razmislite, kaj bi lahko izbrali.
01:05
As you're thinking, this is a toy model of something like
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In kot si mislite, to je poskusni model
za nekaj podobnega
za nekaj podobnega
01:09
selling in the stock market during a rising market. Right?
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borzni prodaji v času
naraščajočega trga. Kajne?
naraščajočega trga. Kajne?
01:11
You don't want to sell too early, because you miss out on profits,
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Nočete prodati prezgodaj,
saj ne bo dobička,
saj ne bo dobička,
01:14
but you don't want to wait too late
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vendar ni dobro preveč čakati,
01:16
to when everyone else sells, triggering a crash.
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da vsi drugi prodajo,
kar bi povzročilo propad.
kar bi povzročilo propad.
01:18
You want to be a little bit ahead of the competition, but not too far ahead.
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Želite biti malo pred konkurenco,
vendar ne preveč.
vendar ne preveč.
01:21
Okay, here's two theories about how people might think about this,
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Ok, tukaj sta dve teoriji,
kako lahko ljudje razmišljajo o tem,
kako lahko ljudje razmišljajo o tem,
01:25
and then we'll see some data.
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potem bomo videli podatke.
01:26
Some of these will sound familiar because you probably are
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Nekaj od tega bo zvenelo znano,
saj ste verjetno
saj ste verjetno
01:28
thinking that way. I'm using my brain theory to see.
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razmišljali na takšen način. Jaz uporabljam
svojo teorijo možganov, da razumem.
svojo teorijo možganov, da razumem.
01:32
A lot of people say, "I really don't know what people are going to pick,
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Veliko ljudi pravi:
"Res ne vem, kaj bodo ljudje izbrali,
"Res ne vem, kaj bodo ljudje izbrali,
01:35
so I think the average will be 50."
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mislim pa, da bo povprečje 50".
01:37
They're not being really strategic at all.
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Oni se sploh ne vedejo strateško.
01:39
"And I'll pick two-thirds of 50. That's 33." That's a start.
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"In jaz bom izbral dve tretjini od 50.
To je 33.«. To je začetek.
To je 33.«. To je začetek.
01:42
Other people who are a little more sophisticated,
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Drugi, ki so malo bolj sofisticirani,
01:44
using more working memory,
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uporabljajo več delovnega spomina,
01:46
say, "I think people will pick 33 because they're going to pick a response to 50,
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povejo:"Mislim, da bodo ljudje izbrali 33,
ker bodo izbrali odgovor na 50,
ker bodo izbrali odgovor na 50,
01:49
and so I'll pick 22, which is two-thirds of 33."
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zato bom izbral 22,
kar je dve tretjini od 33. "
kar je dve tretjini od 33. "
01:52
They're doing one extra step of thinking, two steps.
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Oni naredijo še en korak
razmišljanja, dva koraka.
razmišljanja, dva koraka.
01:55
That's better. And of course, in principle,
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To je boljše. In seveda, načeloma
01:57
you could do three, four or more,
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jih lahko naredite tri, štiri ali več,
01:59
but it starts to get very difficult.
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ampak postane zelo težko.
02:01
Just like in language and other domains, we know that it's hard for people to parse
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Tako kot pri jezikih in drugje,
je težko razčleniti
je težko razčleniti
02:04
very complex sentences with a kind of recursive structure.
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zelo zapletene stavke z neke vrste
rekurzivno strukturo.
rekurzivno strukturo.
02:07
This is called a cognitive hierarchy theory, by the way.
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To je kognitivna teorija hierarhije.
02:09
It's something that I've worked on and a few other people,
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To je nekaj, kar sem delal
s še nekaj drugimi ljudmi
s še nekaj drugimi ljudmi
02:12
and it indicates a kind of hierarchy along with
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in to pomeni
neke vrste hierarhijo skupaj
neke vrste hierarhijo skupaj
02:14
some assumptions about how many people stop at different steps
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s predpostavkami koliko ljudi
se ustavi kje
se ustavi kje
02:16
and how the steps of thinking are affected
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in kako na korake razmišljanja vplivajo
02:18
by lots of interesting variables and variant people, as we'll see in a minute.
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mnoge zanimive spremenljivke in
različni ljudje, kot bomo videli v minuti.
različni ljudje, kot bomo videli v minuti.
02:22
A very different theory, a much more popular one, and an older one,
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Zelo drugačna teorija,
veliko bolj priljubljena in starejša,
veliko bolj priljubljena in starejša,
02:25
due largely to John Nash of "A Beautiful Mind" fame,
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predvsem zaradi John-a Nash-a
iz znamenitega "Čudovitega uma",
iz znamenitega "Čudovitega uma",
02:29
is what's called equilibrium analysis.
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je tista, ki se imenuje
analiza ravnovesja.
analiza ravnovesja.
02:31
So if you've ever taken a game theory course at any level,
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Torej, če ste kdaj bili
na tečaju teorije iger,
na tečaju teorije iger,
02:33
you will have learned a little bit about this.
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ste se naučili nekaj o tem.
02:35
An equilibrium is a mathematical state in which everybody
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Ravnovesje je matematično stanje,
v katerem so vsi
v katerem so vsi
02:38
has figured out exactly what everyone else will do.
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natančno ugotovili, kaj bo vsakdo počel.
02:40
It is a very useful concept, but behaviorally,
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To je zelo uporaben koncept,
ampak vedenjsko
ampak vedenjsko
02:42
it may not exactly explain what people do
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ne more razložiti, kaj ljudje počnejo,
02:44
the first time they play these types of economic games
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ko prvič igrajo ekonomske igre teh vrst,
02:47
or in situations in the outside world.
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ali v situacijah v zunanjem svetu.
02:49
In this case, the equilibrium makes a very bold prediction,
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Tukaj teorija ravnovesja
zelo drzno predvideva,
zelo drzno predvideva,
02:52
which is everyone wants to be below everyone else,
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da bodo vsi zato,
ker želijo biti pod drugimi,
ker želijo biti pod drugimi,
02:55
therefore they'll play zero.
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odigrali igro z ničelno vsoto.
02:57
Let's see what happens. This experiment's been done many, many times.
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Poglejmo, kaj se zgodi.
Ta poskus je bil narejen velikokrat.
Ta poskus je bil narejen velikokrat.
03:00
Some of the earliest ones were done in the '90s
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Prve smo naredili v devetdesetih
03:02
by me and Rosemarie Nagel and others.
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z Rosemarie Nagel in drugimi.
03:04
This is a beautiful data set of 9,000 people who wrote in
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To je lep niz podatkov
9000 ljudi, ki so se prijavili
9000 ljudi, ki so se prijavili
03:07
to three newspapers and magazines that had a contest.
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na natečaj v treh časopisih in revijah.
03:10
The contest said, send in your numbers
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Pisalo je: " Pošljite vaše številke
03:12
and whoever is close to two-thirds of the average will win a big prize.
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in kdor bo blizu dvem tretjinam povprečja,
bo dobil veliko nagrado".
bo dobil veliko nagrado".
03:15
And as you can see, there's so much data here, you can see the spikes very visibly.
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Kot vidite, tukaj je veliko podatkov,
dobro lahko vidite vrhove.
dobro lahko vidite vrhove.
03:18
There's a spike at 33. Those are people doing one step.
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Vrh je na 33. To so ljudje,
ki naredijo en korak.
ki naredijo en korak.
03:22
There is another spike visible at 22.
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Še en stolpec je viden na 22.
03:24
And notice, by the way, that most people pick numbers right around there.
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Opazite, da večina izbira
številke tam nekje.
številke tam nekje.
03:27
They don't necessarily pick exactly 33 and 22.
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Ne izbirajo nujno točno 33 in 22.
03:29
There's something a little bit noisy around it.
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Precej je živahno tu okoli.
03:31
But you can see those spikes, and they're there.
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A vidite tudi tiste vrhove tam.
03:33
There's another group of people who seem to have
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Tu je še ena skupina ljudi in zdi se,
03:34
a firm grip on equilibrium analysis,
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da se čvrsto držijo analize ravnovesja,
03:36
because they're picking zero or one.
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ker so izbrali 0 ali 1.
03:39
But they lose, right?
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Ampak oni izgubijo, kajne?
03:41
Because picking a number that low is actually a bad choice
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Zato, ker je izbira tako nizke številke
dejansko slaba izbira,
dejansko slaba izbira,
03:44
if other people aren't doing equilibrium analysis as well.
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razen, če se tudi drugi
ne ukvarjajo z analizami ravnovesja.
ne ukvarjajo z analizami ravnovesja.
03:47
So they're smart, but poor.
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Oni so pametni, vendar revni.
03:49
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:51
Where are these things happening in the brain?
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Kje do tega prihaja v možganih?
03:53
One study by Coricelli and Nagel gives a really sharp, interesting answer.
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Ena od študij Coricelli-ja in Nagel-ove
daje zelo jasen, zanimiv odgovor.
daje zelo jasen, zanimiv odgovor.
03:57
So they had people play this game
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Pri njih so ljudje igrali to igro
03:58
while they were being scanned in an fMRI,
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medtem, ko so jih skenirali v fMRi,
04:01
and two conditions: in some trials,
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pod dvema pogojema: v nekaterih preizkusih
04:03
they're told you're playing another person
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so rekli: " Igrate z drugo osebo,
04:04
who's playing right now and we're going to match up
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ki igra zdaj in pomerili bomo
04:06
your behavior at the end and pay you if you win.
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vajino vedenje na koncu
in vam ob zmagi plačali".
in vam ob zmagi plačali".
04:08
In the other trials, they're told, you're playing a computer.
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Drugim so rekli,
da igrajo z računalnikom.
da igrajo z računalnikom.
04:10
They're just choosing randomly.
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Izbirali so naključno.
04:12
So what you see here is a subtraction
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Torej kar vidite tukaj, je odštevanje
04:14
of areas in which there's more brain activity
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področij v katerih je več
možganskih dejavnosti,
možganskih dejavnosti,
04:17
when you're playing people compared to playing the computer.
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ko vaš je soigralec v igri človek
v primerjavi z računalnikom.
v primerjavi z računalnikom.
04:20
And you see activity in some regions we've seen today,
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Vidite dejavnost v nekaterih področjih,
04:22
medial prefrontal cortex, dorsomedial, however, up here,
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v medialni prefrontalni skorji,
dorzomedialni, pa tu gor,
dorzomedialni, pa tu gor,
04:25
ventromedial prefrontal cortex,
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v ventromedialni prefrontalni skorji,
04:27
anterior cingulate, an area that's involved
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v anteriorni cingulatni skorji,
področju, ki se ukvarja
področju, ki se ukvarja
04:28
in lots of types of conflict resolution, like if you're playing "Simon Says,"
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z veliko vrst reševanja sporov,
kot če se igrate "Simon reče"
kot če se igrate "Simon reče"
04:32
and also the right and left temporoparietal junction.
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in tudi desno in levo
temporoparietalno stičišče.
temporoparietalno stičišče.
04:36
And these are all areas which are fairly reliably known
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Vse to so področja,
za katere se dokaj zanesljivo ve,
za katere se dokaj zanesljivo ve,
04:38
to be part of what's called a "theory of mind" circuit,
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da so del krogotoka "teorije uma",
04:40
or "mentalizing circuit."
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ali " mentalni krogotok."
04:42
That is, it's a circuit that's used to imagine what other people might do.
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Ta krogotok se uporablja, ko razmišljmo
kaj bi lahko drugi naredili.
kaj bi lahko drugi naredili.
04:46
So these were some of the first studies to see this
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To so nekatere prvih študij,
kjer so opazili
kjer so opazili
04:48
tied in to game theory.
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povezanost s teorijo iger.
04:50
What happens with these one- and two-step types?
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Kaj se zgodi s temi en-korak
in dva-koraka tipi?
in dva-koraka tipi?
04:52
So we classify people by what they picked,
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Ljudi smo razvrstili glede
na njihovo izbiro
na njihovo izbiro
04:54
and then we look at the difference between
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in potem iskali razliko v
04:56
playing humans versus playing computers,
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igranju proti ljudem in proti računalniku,
04:58
which brain areas are differentially active.
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katera možganska področja so aktivna.
05:00
On the top you see the one-step players.
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Na vrhu boste videli en-korak igralce.
05:01
There's almost no difference.
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Tam skoraj ni razlike.
05:03
The reason is, they're treating other people like a computer, and the brain is too.
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Zato ker obravnavajo druge
kot računalnike in tako tudi možgani.
kot računalnike in tako tudi možgani.
05:06
The bottom players, you see all the activity in dorsomedial PFC.
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Spodnji igralci, vidite vse dejavnosti
v dorsomedialni prefrontalni skorji.
v dorsomedialni prefrontalni skorji.
05:10
So we know that those two-step players are doing something differently.
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Vidimo, da dva-koraka igralci
delajo drugače.
delajo drugače.
05:12
Now if you were to step back and say, "What can we do with this information?"
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Če bi se ustavili in vprašali:
"Kaj naj storimo s to informacijo?"
"Kaj naj storimo s to informacijo?"
05:15
you might be able to look at brain activity and say,
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Lahko pogledamo delovanje možganov:
05:17
"This person's going to be a good poker player,"
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"Ta oseba bo dober igralec pokra,"
05:19
or, "This person's socially naive,"
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ali "Ta oseba je družbeno naivna"
05:20
and we might also be able to study things
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Morda bi lahko proučevali
05:22
like development of adolescent brains
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razvoj adolescentnih možganov
05:23
once we have an idea of where this circuitry exists.
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ko spoznamo, kje ta krogotok obstaja.
05:27
Okay. Get ready.
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Ok. Pripravite se.
05:29
I'm saving you some brain activity,
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Prihranil sem vam
nekaj možganskih dejavnosti,
nekaj možganskih dejavnosti,
05:31
because you don't need to use your hair detector cells.
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zato, ker vam ni treba uporabljati
detektorskih celic las.
detektorskih celic las.
05:34
You should use those cells to think carefully about this game.
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Morali bi uporabiti te celice,
za premislek o tej igri.
za premislek o tej igri.
05:37
This is a bargaining game.
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To je pogajalska igra.
05:39
Two players who are being scanned using EEG electrodes
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Dva igralca, ki jih skenirajo
s pomočjo EEG elektrod,
s pomočjo EEG elektrod,
05:42
are going to bargain over one to six dollars.
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bosta barantala
za vsoto od 1 do 6 dolarjev.
za vsoto od 1 do 6 dolarjev.
05:45
If they can do it in 10 seconds, they're going to actually earn that money.
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Dogovorita se v 10 sekundah
in dobita ta denar.
in dobita ta denar.
05:47
If 10 seconds goes by and they haven't made a deal, they get nothing.
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Če se v 10 sekundah ne dogovorita,
ne dobita ničesar.
ne dobita ničesar.
05:50
That's kind of a mistake together.
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To je neke vrste skupna napaka.
05:52
The twist is that one player, on the left,
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Trik je, da je igralec na levi strani
05:55
is informed about how much on each trial there is.
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obveščen o višini zneska
v vsakem preizkusu.
v vsakem preizkusu.
05:57
They play lots of trials with different amounts each time.
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Igrata velikokrat,
vsakič z različnimi zneski.
vsakič z različnimi zneski.
06:00
In this case, they know there's four dollars.
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Tu sta vedela, da je znesek štiri dolarje.
06:02
The uninformed player doesn't know,
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Neobveščeni igralec ne ve,
06:04
but they know that the informed player knows.
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vendar vesta,
da obveščen igralec ve.
da obveščen igralec ve.
06:06
So the uninformed player's challenge is to say,
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Torej, se neobveščeni igralec
lahko vpraša:
lahko vpraša:
06:08
"Is this guy really being fair
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"Ali je ta fant res pošten,
06:09
or are they giving me a very low offer
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ali so mi dali zelo nizko ponudbo
06:11
in order to get me to think that there's only one or two dollars available to split?"
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da bi mislil, da sta v igri
le en ali dva dolarja ?"
le en ali dva dolarja ?"
06:14
in which case they might reject it and not come to a deal.
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V tem primeru bi lahko zavrnila dogovor
in do soglasja ne bi prišla.
in do soglasja ne bi prišla.
06:17
So there's some tension here between trying to get the most money
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Tukaj je nekaj napetosti med poskusom,
da bi dobili največ denarja
da bi dobili največ denarja
06:20
but trying to goad the other player into giving you more.
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prepričevanjem drugega igralca,
da vam da več.
da vam da več.
06:23
And the way they bargain is to point on a number line
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Način barantanja je
kazanje na številko vrstice,
kazanje na številko vrstice,
06:25
that goes from zero to six dollars,
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ki gre od 0 do 6 dolarjev,
06:27
and they're bargaining over how much the uninformed player gets,
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pogajata, pa se o tem,
koliko bo neobveščeni igralec dobil,
koliko bo neobveščeni igralec dobil,
06:30
and the informed player's going to get the rest.
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ostanek dobi obveščeni igralec.
06:32
So this is like a management-labor negotiation
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Torej, to je podobno pogajanjem
med vodstvom podjetja in delavci
med vodstvom podjetja in delavci
06:34
in which the workers don't know how much profits
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v katerem delavci ne vedo koliko dobička
06:37
the privately held company has, right,
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privatno podjetje ima,
06:40
and they want to maybe hold out for more money,
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bi pa radi vztrajali pri čim več denarja,
06:42
but the company might want to create the impression
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vendar bi podjetje lahko dalo vtis,
06:44
that there's very little to split: "I'm giving you the most that I can."
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da obstaja zelo malo za razdelitev:
" Dajem največ, kar lahko."
" Dajem največ, kar lahko."
06:47
First some behavior. So a bunch of the subject pairs, they play face to face.
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Najprej nekaj o obnašanju.
Množica parov, igrata iz oči v oči.
Množica parov, igrata iz oči v oči.
06:51
We have some other data where they play across computers.
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So tudi podatki o igri preko računalnika.
06:53
That's an interesting difference, as you might imagine.
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To je zanimiva razlika.
06:55
But a bunch of the face-to-face pairs
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Ampa v množici parov,
ki igrajo iz oči v oči
ki igrajo iz oči v oči
06:57
agree to divide the money evenly every single time.
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se prav vsakič dogovorita
o enakomerni porazdelitvi denarja
o enakomerni porazdelitvi denarja
07:00
Boring. It's just not interesting neurally.
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Dolgočasno. To enostavno ni
nevronsko zanimivo.
nevronsko zanimivo.
07:03
It's good for them. They make a lot of money.
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Dobro je zanje,
ker zaslužijo veliko denarja.
ker zaslužijo veliko denarja.
07:06
But we're interested in, can we say something about
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Ampak nas zanima, ali lahko kaj povemo
07:09
when disagreements occur versus don't occur?
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o tem kdaj pride do nesoglasja in kdaj ne?
07:11
So this is the other group of subjects who often disagree.
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To je druga skupina,
kjer se pogosto ne strinjata.
kjer se pogosto ne strinjata.
07:13
So they have a chance of -- they bicker and disagree
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Ker se prerekata in se ne strinjata,
imata možnost,
imata možnost,
07:16
and end up with less money.
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da končata z manj denarja.
07:18
They might be eligible to be on "Real Housewives," the TV show.
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Lahko bi bili primerni za nastop
v TV šovu "Prave gospodinje."
v TV šovu "Prave gospodinje."
07:21
You see on the left,
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Na levi strani vidite,
07:23
when the amount to divide is one, two or three dollars,
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ko je znesek za razdelitev
1, 2 ali 3 dolarjev,
1, 2 ali 3 dolarjev,
07:26
they disagree about half the time,
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se polovico časa ne strinjata ,
07:28
and when the amount is four, five, six, they agree quite often.
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ko pa je znesek 4, 5, 6,
se pogosto strinjata .
se pogosto strinjata .
07:30
This turns out to be something that's predicted
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Izkaže se, da je to nekaj,
kar je predvidljivo
kar je predvidljivo
07:32
by a very complicated type of game theory
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z zelo zapleteno vrsto teorije iger
07:34
you should come to graduate school at CalTech and learn about.
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in bi morali študirati na Caltech-u,
da bi to spoznali.
da bi to spoznali.
07:37
It's a little too complicated to explain right now,
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To je prezapleteno,
da bi zdaj pojasnjeval ,
da bi zdaj pojasnjeval ,
07:39
but the theory tells you that this shape kind of should occur.
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ampak teorija vam pove, da bi se ta oblika
nekako morala zgoditi.
nekako morala zgoditi.
07:42
Your intuition might tell you that too.
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Vaša intuicija vam lahko pove enako.
07:45
Now I'm going to show you the results from the EEG recording.
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Zdaj vam bom pokazal
rezultate EEG snemanja.
rezultate EEG snemanja.
07:47
Very complicated. The right brain schematic
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Zelo zapleteno. Na shemi so desni možgani
07:49
is the uninformed person, and the left is the informed.
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od neobveščene,
na levi od obveščene osebe.
na levi od obveščene osebe.
07:52
Remember that we scanned both brains at the same time,
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Ne pozabite,
da smo skenirali možgane obeh hkrati,
da smo skenirali možgane obeh hkrati,
07:55
so we can ask about time-synced activity
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zato lahko iščemo
časovno sinhronizirane dejavnosti
časovno sinhronizirane dejavnosti
07:57
in similar or different areas simultaneously,
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v podobnih ali različnih področjih hkrati,
08:00
just like if you wanted to study a conversation
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tako kot, če bi radi preučevali pogovor
08:03
and you were scanning two people talking to each other
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in bi skenirali dva, ki se pogovarjata
08:05
and you'd expect common activity in language regions
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bi pričakovali skupno dejavnost
v področju jezika,
v področju jezika,
08:07
when they're actually kind of listening and communicating.
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ko onadva dejansko
poslušata in komunicirata.
poslušata in komunicirata.
08:09
So the arrows connect regions that are active at the same time,
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Torej puščice povezujejo področja,
ki so aktivna istočasno,
ki so aktivna istočasno,
08:13
and the direction of the arrows flows
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začetek puščice je
08:15
from the region that's active first in time,
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v območju, ki je časovno najprej aktivno,
08:18
and the arrowhead goes to the region that's active later.
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vrh puščice pa v območju,
ki se aktivira pozneje.
ki se aktivira pozneje.
08:21
So in this case, if you look carefully,
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Torej, v tem primeru,
če ste skrbno opazovali,
če ste skrbno opazovali,
08:24
most of the arrows flow from right to left.
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gra večina puščic od desne proti levi.
08:25
That is, it looks as if the uninformed brain activity
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To pomeni, da je videti, kot da se
dejavnost v neobveščenih možganih
dejavnost v neobveščenih možganih
08:29
is happening first,
201
497252
1959
zgodi prva,
08:31
and then it's followed by activity in the informed brain.
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nato pa ji sledi dejavnost
v obveščenih možganih.
v obveščenih možganih.
08:34
And by the way, these were trials where their deals were made.
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In mimogrede, to so bili preizkusi,
v katerih sta do pogodbe prišla.
v katerih sta do pogodbe prišla.
08:38
This is from the first two seconds.
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To je v prvih dveh sekundah.
08:40
We haven't finished analyzing this data,
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508198
1980
Nismo končali analize teh podatkov,
08:42
so we're still peeking in, but the hope is
206
510178
1900
tako da še vedno kukamo, v upanju,
08:44
that we can say something in the first couple of seconds
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512078
2564
da bomo lahko rekli nekaj
v prvih nekaj sekundah
v prvih nekaj sekundah
08:46
about whether they'll make a deal or not,
208
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o tem, ali bo do dogovora prišlo,
08:48
which could be very useful in thinking about avoiding litigation
209
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2043
kar bi bilo koristno
pri izogibanju sporom,
pri izogibanju sporom,
08:50
and ugly divorces and things like that.
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1928
grdim razvezam in podobnemu.
08:52
Those are all cases in which a lot of value is lost
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To so vse primeri, v katerih je
veliko vrednosti izgubljeno
veliko vrednosti izgubljeno
08:55
by delay and strikes.
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2976
zaradi zavlačevanja in zgrešenih poskusov.
08:58
Here's the case where the disagreements occur.
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Tukaj je primer, ko pride do nesoglasja.
09:00
You can see it looks different than the one before.
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Lahko opazite, da izgleda
drugače kot prejšnji.
drugače kot prejšnji.
09:02
There's a lot more arrows.
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Tukaj je veliko več puščic.
09:04
That means that the brains are synced up
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Možgani so bolj sinhronizirani
09:06
more closely in terms of simultaneous activity,
217
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v smislu hkratnih dejavnosti
09:08
and the arrows flow clearly from left to right.
218
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2010
in puščice se gibljejo z leve na desno.
09:10
That is, the informed brain seems to be deciding,
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2242
To je, da se obveščeni možgani odločajo:
09:12
"We're probably not going to make a deal here."
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"Tukaj se verjetno ne bova pogodila."
09:15
And then later there's activity in the uninformed brain.
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In šele pozneje je dejavnost
v neobveščenih možganih.
v neobveščenih možganih.
09:18
Next I'm going to introduce you to some relatives.
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V nadaljevanju vam bom predstavil
nekaj sorodnikov.
nekaj sorodnikov.
09:20
They're hairy, smelly, fast and strong.
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Oni so kosmati, smrdeči, hitri in močni.
09:23
You might be thinking back to your last Thanksgiving.
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Mogoče vas to spomni
na vaš Zahvalni dan.
na vaš Zahvalni dan.
09:26
Maybe if you had a chimpanzee with you.
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Morda, če so bili šimpanzi z vami.
09:29
Charles Darwin and I and you broke off from the family tree
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Charles Darwin, jaz in vi smo se odlomili
od družinskega drevesa
od družinskega drevesa
09:32
from chimpanzees about five million years ago.
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s šimpanzi pred približno
pet milijonov let.
pet milijonov let.
09:34
They're still our closest genetic kin.
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1968
Oni so genetsko naši najbližji sorodniki.
09:36
We share 98.8 percent of the genes.
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Skupno nam je 98,8 odstotkov genov.
09:38
We share more genes with them than zebras do with horses.
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Imamo več skupnih genov z njimi
kot zebre s konji.
kot zebre s konji.
09:41
And we're also their closest cousin.
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Mi smo njihovi najbližji sorodniki.
09:43
They have more genetic relation to us than to gorillas.
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Z nami so so si genetsko bližje
kot z gorilami.
kot z gorilami.
09:46
So how humans and chimpanzees behave differently
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Tako nam razlike
v vedenju ljudi in šimpanzov
v vedenju ljudi in šimpanzov
09:48
might tell us a lot about brain evolution.
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lahko povedo veliko o razvoju možganov.
09:51
So this is an amazing memory test
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2601
Torej, to je neverjeten test spomina
09:53
from Nagoya, Japan, Primate Research Institute,
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iz Inštituta za proučevanje primatov
iz Nagoje na Japonskem,
iz Nagoje na Japonskem,
09:56
where they've done a lot of this research.
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kjer so naredili veliko teh raziskav.
09:58
This goes back quite a ways. They're interested in working memory.
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To sega daleč nazaj.
Zanima jih delovni spomin.
Zanima jih delovni spomin.
10:00
The chimp is going to see, watch carefully,
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Šimpanz bo videl, glejte pozorno,
10:02
they're going to see 200 milliseconds' exposure
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videli bodo posnetek v 200 milisekundah
10:04
— that's fast, that's eight movie frames —
241
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- kar je hitro, osem filmskih sličic -
10:06
of numbers one, two, three, four, five.
242
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1951
številke ena, dva, tri, štiri, pet.
10:08
Then they disappear and they're replaced by squares,
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1998
Številke izginejo,
nadomestijo jih kvadrati.
nadomestijo jih kvadrati.
10:10
and they have to press the squares
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Oni pa morajo pritisniti kvadrate,
10:12
that correspond to the numbers from low to high
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ki ustrezajo številkam
od nizkih do visokih,
od nizkih do visokih,
10:14
to get an apple reward.
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da bi dobili jabolko.
10:15
Let's see how they can do it.
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Poglejmo, kako to oni lahko počnejo.
10:28
This is a young chimp. The young ones
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To je mlad šimpanz. Mladi
10:29
are better than the old ones, just like humans.
249
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so boljši od starih, tako kot ljudje.
10:32
And they're highly experienced, so they've done this
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Zelo so izkušeni, ker so to počeli
10:34
thousands and thousands of time.
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več tisočkrat.
10:35
Obviously there's a big training effect, as you can imagine.
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Očitno je učinek treninga velik ,
kot si lahko predstavljate.
kot si lahko predstavljate.
10:39
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:41
You can see they're very blasé and kind of effortless.
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Vidite, da jim ni mar in se ne naprezajo.
10:43
Not only can they do it very well, they do it in a sort of lazy way.
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Ne le, da to lahko delajo zelo dobro,
pač pa to počnejo na nekakšen len način.
pač pa to počnejo na nekakšen len način.
10:47
Right? Who thinks you could beat the chimps?
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Kajne? Kdo si misli,
da bi lahko premagal šimpanza?
da bi lahko premagal šimpanza?
10:50
Wrong. (Laughter)
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Narobe. (Smeh)
10:52
We can try. We'll try. Maybe we'll try.
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Lahko poskusimo, morda bomo poskusili.
10:54
Okay, so the next part of this study
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Ok, naslednji del te študije,
10:57
I'm going to go quickly through
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bom preletel,
10:58
is based on an idea of Tetsuro Matsuzawa.
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temelji na ideji Tetsura Matsuzawa.
11:01
He had a bold idea that -- what he called the cognitive trade-off hypothesis.
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Svojo drzno idejo je poimenoval
kognitivno kompromisna hipoteza.
kognitivno kompromisna hipoteza.
11:04
We know chimps are faster and stronger.
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Vemo, da so šimpanzi hitrejši in močnejši.
11:05
They're also very obsessed with status.
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Prav tako so obsedeni s statusom.
11:07
His thought was, maybe they've preserved brain activities
265
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Njegova misel je bila, da morda
ohranjajo možganske dejavnosti
ohranjajo možganske dejavnosti
11:10
and they practice them in development
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in jih vadijo v razvoju,
11:12
that are really, really important to them
267
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ker jim je zelo, zelo pomembno,
11:14
to negotiate status and to win,
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da se pogajajo o statusu in da zmagajo,
11:16
which is something like strategic thinking during competition.
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kar je nekaj podobnega strateškemu
razmišljanju med tekmovanjem.
razmišljanju med tekmovanjem.
11:19
So we're going to check that out
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Torej, to bomo preverili,
11:21
by having the chimps actually play a game
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ko bodo šimpanzi dejansko igrali igro
11:23
by touching two touch screens.
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z dotikanjem dveh zaslonov na dotik.
11:26
The chimps are actually interacting with each other through the computers.
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Šimpanza sta dejansko
v stiku prek računalnika.
v stiku prek računalnika.
11:28
They're going to press left or right.
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Pritiskala bosta levo ali desno.
11:30
One chimp is called a matcher.
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En šimpanz se imenuje ujemalni.
11:32
They win if they press left, left,
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1983
Oni zmagajo, če pritisnejo levo, levo,
11:34
like a seeker finding someone in hide-and-seek, or right, right.
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ali desno, desno,
podobno iskanju v igri skrivalnice.
podobno iskanju v igri skrivalnice.
11:37
The mismatcher wants to mismatch.
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Neujemalni se ne bi rad ujemal.
11:38
They want to press the opposite screen of the chimp.
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Oni bi radi pritisnili na nasprotni zaslon.
11:41
And the rewards are apple cube rewards.
280
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Nagrada je jabolčna kocka.
11:44
So here's how game theorists look at these data.
281
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Tukaj vidite, kako teoretiki igre
gledajo te podatke.
gledajo te podatke.
11:47
This is a graph of the percentage of times
282
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To je graf kolikokrat
11:48
the matcher picked right on the x-axis,
283
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je ujemalni izbral desno na x- osi
11:51
and the percentage of times they predicted right
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in odstotek kolikokrat je dobro predvidel
11:52
by the mismatcher on the y-axis.
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neujemalni na y- osi.
11:55
So a point here is the behavior by a pair of players,
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Torej tu gre za ravnanje para igralcev
11:58
one trying to match, one trying to mismatch.
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en poskuša uskladiti,
drugi poskuša nasprotno.
drugi poskuša nasprotno.
12:01
The NE square in the middle -- actually NE, CH and QRE --
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NE kvadrat v sredini -
dejansko NE, CH in QRE -
dejansko NE, CH in QRE -
12:04
those are three different theories of Nash equilibrium, and others,
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so tri različne teorije
Nash-evega ravnovesja in drugih,
Nash-evega ravnovesja in drugih,
12:06
tells you what the theory predicts,
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ki vam povejo, kaj teorija predvideva,
12:09
which is that they should match 50-50,
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torej da bi oni morali odigrati 50-50,
12:11
because if you play left too much, for example,
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ker, če levo igrate prevečkrat, na primer,
12:13
I can exploit that if I'm the mismatcher by then playing right.
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jaz to izkoristim,
če sem neujemalni in odigram desno.
če sem neujemalni in odigram desno.
12:16
And as you can see, the chimps, each chimp is one triangle,
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In kot vidite, šimpanzi,
vsak šimpanz je en trikotnik,
vsak šimpanz je en trikotnik,
12:19
are circled around, hovering around that prediction.
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krožijo in se gibljejo okrog te napovedi.
12:22
Now we move the payoffs.
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Zdaj gremo na izplačila.
12:24
We're actually going to make the left, left payoff for the matcher a little bit higher.
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Dejansko bomo za levo, levo
malce povišali izplačilo ujemalnemu.
malce povišali izplačilo ujemalnemu.
12:28
Now they get three apple cubes.
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Zdaj dobijo tri jabolčne kocke.
12:29
Game theoretically, that should actually make the mismatcher's behavior shift,
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Po teoriji igre bi to moralo
obrniti vedenje neujemalnega
obrniti vedenje neujemalnega
12:32
because what happens is, the mismatcher will think,
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ker bo neujemalni pomislil:
12:34
oh, this guy's going to go for the big reward,
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"Oh, tale cilja na veliko nagrado,
12:35
and so I'm going to go to the right, make sure he doesn't get it.
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in zato bom šel na desno,
da zagotovim, da je ne dobi".
da zagotovim, da je ne dobi".
12:38
And as you can see, their behavior moves up
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Njihovo vedenje se premika gor
12:40
in the direction of this change in the Nash equilibrium.
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v smeri te spremembe
v Nash-ovem ravnovesju.
v Nash-ovem ravnovesju.
12:44
Finally, we changed the payoffs one more time.
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Na koncu smo
spremenili izplačila še enkrat.
spremenili izplačila še enkrat.
12:46
Now it's four apple cubes,
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Štiri jabolčne kocke,
12:47
and their behavior again moves towards the Nash equilibrium.
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vedenje se premika
proti Nash-ovem ravnovesju.
proti Nash-ovem ravnovesju.
12:49
It's sprinkled around, but if you average the chimps out,
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razmetano je okoli,
ampak, če izračunate povprečje,
ampak, če izračunate povprečje,
12:51
they're really, really close, within .01.
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dejansko so zelo blizu, znotraj 0,01.
12:53
They're actually closer than any species we've observed.
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Dejansko so bližje kot katerakoli vrsta,
ki smo jo opazovali.
ki smo jo opazovali.
12:57
What about humans? You think you're smarter than a chimpanzee?
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Kaj pa ljudje? Mislite,
da ste pametnejši od šimpanza?
da ste pametnejši od šimpanza?
13:00
Here's two human groups in green and blue.
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Tu sta dve skupini ljudi,
v zeleni in modri barvi.
v zeleni in modri barvi.
13:03
They're closer to 50-50. They're not responding to payoffs as closely,
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Bližje so 50-50.
Ne odzivajo se toliko na izplačila,
Ne odzivajo se toliko na izplačila,
in če pogledate njihovo učenje v igri,
13:07
and also if you study their learning in the game,
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13:09
they aren't as sensitive to previous rewards.
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niso tako občutljivi na prejšnje nagrade.
13:11
The chimps are playing better than the humans,
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Šimpanzi igrajo bolje kot ljudje,
13:12
better in the sense of adhering to game theory.
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v smislu, da se bolj držijo teorije iger.
13:14
And these are two different groups of humans
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To sta dve različni skupini ljudi
13:16
from Japan and Africa. They replicate quite nicely.
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iz Japonske in Afrike.
Oni to lepo ponovijo.
Oni to lepo ponovijo.
13:19
None of them are close to where the chimps are.
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Nihče od njih ni niti blizu šimpanzom.
13:22
So here are some things we learned today.
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Nekaj stvari, ki smo se jih naučili.
13:24
People seem to do a limited amount of strategic thinking
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Zdi se, da ljudje z uporabo teorije uma
13:26
using theory of mind.
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lahko omejeno strateško razmišljajo.
13:28
We have some preliminary evidence from bargaining
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Imamo nekaj
začetnih dokazov iz pogajanj,
začetnih dokazov iz pogajanj,
13:30
that early warning signs in the brain might be used to predict
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da bi zgodnja pozorila
v možganih lahko uporabljali
v možganih lahko uporabljali
13:32
whether there will be a bad disagreement that costs money,
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za napoved slabega nesoglasja,
ki bi nas stalo,
ki bi nas stalo,
13:34
and chimps are better competitors than humans,
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in da šimpanzi boljši tekmovalci od nas,
13:36
as judged by game theory.
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po oceni teorije iger.
13:39
Thank you.
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Hvala.
13:41
(Applause)
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(Aplavz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Colin Camerer - Behavioral economistColin Camerer is a leading behavioral economist who studies the psychological and neural bases of choice and strategic decision-making.
Why you should listen
Colin Camerer focuses on brain behavior during decision making, strategizing and market trading. He is the Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at the California Institute of Technology. A child prodigy in his youth, Camerer received a B.A. in quantitative studies from Johns Hopkins when he was just 17 and a PhD in decision theory from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business when he was 22. Camerer's research departs from previous theory in that it does not assume the mind to be a rational and perfect system, but rather focuses on the limitations of everyday people when they play actual games, and seeks to predict how they will behave in situations that involve strategy. His studies focus on neurological findings from economic experiments in the lab (on humans -- and monkeys!) Camerer is the author of Behavioral Game Theory.
Colin Camerer | Speaker | TED.com