ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shermer - Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market.

Why you should listen

As founder and publisher of Skeptic Magazine, Michael Shermer has exposed fallacies behind intelligent design, 9/11 conspiracies, the low-carb craze, alien sightings and other popular beliefs and paranoias. But it's not about debunking for debunking's sake. Shermer defends the notion that we can understand our world better only by matching good theory with good science.

Shermer's work offers cognitive context for our often misguided beliefs: In the absence of sound science, incomplete information can powerfully combine with the power of suggestion (helping us hear Satanic lyrics when "Stairway to Heaven" plays backwards, for example). In fact, a common thread that runs through beliefs of all sorts, he says, is our tendency to convince ourselves: We overvalue the shreds of evidence that support our preferred outcome, and ignore the facts we aren't looking for.

He writes a monthly column for Scientific American, and is an adjunct at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University. His latest book is The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. He is also the author of The Mind of the Market, on evolutionary economics, Why Darwin Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design, and The Science of Good and Evil. And his next book is titled The Moral Arc of Science.

More profile about the speaker
Michael Shermer | Speaker | TED.com
TED2006

Michael Shermer: Why people believe weird things

Michael Shermer o verovanju v čudne stvari

Filmed:
7,339,268 views

Zakaj ljudje vidijo Devico Marijo na sirovem sendviču ali slišijo hudičeve besede v pesmi "Stopnice do nebes"? S pomočjo videoposnetkov in glasbe nam skeptični Michael Shermer pokaže, kako se prepričamo, da verjamemo, in pri tem spregledamo dejstva.
- Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:24
I'm MichaelMichael ShermerShermer,
directordirektor of the SkepticsSkeptiki SocietyDružbe,
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Sem Michael Shermer, direktor organizacije Skeptična družba
in založnik revije Skeptik.
00:27
publisherzaložnik of "SkepticSkeptik" magazinerevija.
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Raziskujemo paranormalnost, psevdo-znanost,
00:28
We investigateraziskati claimsterjatev of the paranormalparanormalno,
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obrobne skupine in kulte ter take in drugačne trditve;
00:30
pseudo-sciencepseudo-znanost, fringeobrobje groupsskupine and cultskultov,
and claimsterjatev of all kindsvrste betweenmed,
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00:34
scienceznanost and pseudo-sciencepseudo-znanost
and non-sciencene-znanosti and junkjunk scienceznanost,
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znanost in psevdo-znanost, ne-znanost, junk-znanost,
vudu-znanost, patološko znanost, slabo znanost
00:37
voodooVoodoo scienceznanost, pathologicalpatološko scienceznanost,
badslab scienceznanost, non-sciencene-znanosti,
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00:40
and plainnavaden oldstar non-sensebrez smisla.
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in preproste starodavne bedarije.
00:42
And unlessrazen you've been on MarsMars recentlypred kratkim,
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Razen če niste ravno prišli z Marsa,
00:44
you know there's a lot of that out there.
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veste, da je veliko teh znanosti na svetu.
00:46
Some people call us debunkersdebunkers,
whichki is kindvrste of a negativenegativno termdolgoročno.
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Ljudje nam pravijo razbijalci bedarij, kar je negativen izraz.
00:49
But let's faceobraz it, there's a lot of bunkpograd.
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Soočimo se z resnico - obstaja veliko bedarij.
Mi smo kot policijski preiskovalci bedarij.
00:51
We are like the bunkobunko squadsoddelki
of the policepolicija departmentsoddelkov out there --
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00:55
well, we're sortRazvrsti of like
the RalphRalph NadersNaders of badslab ideasideje,
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Mi smo kot Ralph Naders s slabimi idejami.
00:58
(LaughterSmeh)
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(smeh)
Poskušamo zamenjati slabe ideje z dobrimi.
01:00
tryingposkušam to replacezamenjati badslab ideasideje
with good ideasideje.
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01:02
I'll showshow you an exampleprimer of a badslab ideaideja.
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Pokazal vam bom primer slabe ideje.
01:04
I broughtprinesel this with me,
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To sem prinesel s sabo.
01:05
this was givendan to us
by NBCNBC DatelineNedatiran to testtest.
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To smo dobili za testiranje od NBC Dateline.
01:09
It's producedproizvedeni by the QuadroQuadro
CorporationOd dohodkov pravnih oseb of WestWest VirginiaVirginia.
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Izdelala ga je korporacija Quadro iz Zahodne Virginije.
To je detektorska palica Quadro 2000.
01:13
It's calledpozval the QuadroQuadro 2000 DowserDowser RodPalica.
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(smeh)
01:16
(LaughterSmeh)
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01:17
This was beingbiti soldprodano to high-schoolSrednja šola
administratorsadministratorji for $900 apiecekošček.
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Palice so prodali srednjim šolam za 900 dolarjev na kos.
01:22
It's a piecekos of plasticplastika with a RadioRadio
ShackLope antennaantena attachedpriložen to it.
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To je kos plastike z anteno.
S palico bi lahko iskal karkoli, a ta palica
01:27
You could dowseDowse for all sortsvrste of things,
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01:29
but this particularzlasti one was builtzgrajeno
to dowseDowse for marijuanamarihuana
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je bila izdelana za odkrivanje marihuane v šolskih omaricah.
01:32
in students'študentov lockersomarice.
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01:33
(LaughterSmeh)
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(smeh)
Deluje tako. S palico hodiš med omaricami,
01:36
So the way it worksdela
is you go down the hallwayhodnik,
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01:39
and you see if it tiltsnagibi
towardproti a particularzlasti lockeromarica,
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če se palica obrne proti določeni omarici, odpreš omarico.
01:42
and then you openodprto the lockeromarica.
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To bi izgledalo tako.
01:44
So it looksizgleda something like this.
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Pokazal vam bom.
01:45
I'll showshow you.
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01:48
(LaughterSmeh)
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(smeh)
01:49
Well, it has kindvrste of a right-leaningdesno nagnjeno biaspristranskost.
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Malo se nagiba v desno...
To je znanost. Naredili bomo kontroliran preizkus.
01:53
Well, this is scienceznanost,
so we'llbomo do a controlledpod nadzorom experimentposkus.
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Gotovo se bo obrnila tja.
01:56
It'llTo bom go this way for sure.
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(smeh)
01:57
(LaughterSmeh)
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02:01
SirGospod, do you want to emptyprazno
your pocketsžepi, please, sirGospod?
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Gospod, bi izpraznili žepe, prosim?
(smeh)
02:04
(LaughterSmeh)
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Vprašanje je bilo, ali lahko res najde marihuano v omarici?
02:06
So the questionvprašanje was, can it actuallydejansko
find marijuanamarihuana in students'študentov lockersomarice?
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Odgovor je... Če odprete dovolj omaric, ja.
02:09
And the answerodgovor is,
if you openodprto enoughdovolj of them, yes.
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(smeh)
02:12
(LaughterSmeh)
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(aplavz)
02:13
(ApplauseAplavz)
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02:14
But in scienceznanost, we have to keep tracksledi
of the missespogreša, not just the hitszadetkov.
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V znanosti moramo upoštevati zmote, ne le zadetke.
To je ključna lekcija mojega govora;
02:18
And that's probablyverjetno the keyključ lessonlekcijo
to my shortkratek talk here:
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02:21
This is how psychicspsihologi work, astrologersastrologi,
tarottarot cardkartica readersbralci and so on.
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tako delajo jasnovidci, astrologi, vedeževalci s kart...
Ljudje si zapomnijo zadetke in pozabijo na zmote.
02:25
People rememberZapomni si the hitszadetkov
and forgetpozabi the missespogreša.
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V znanosti moramo voditi vso podatkovno zbirko
02:27
In scienceznanost, we keep the wholeceloto databasebaze podatkov,
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in ugotoviti, če število zadetkov izstopa
02:29
and look to see if the numberštevilka
of hitszadetkov somehownekako standsstojala out
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iz skupnega števila, ki je pričakovano po naključju.
02:32
from the totalskupaj numberštevilka
you'dTi bi expectpričakovati by chancepriložnost.
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To napravo smo testirali.
02:34
In this caseprimera, we testedtestiran it.
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02:35
We had two opaqueneprozorno boxesškatle:
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Imeli smo dve neprosojni škatli.
02:37
one with government-approvedodobrila vlada THCTHC
marijuanamarihuana, and one with nothing.
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V eni je bila THC marihuana, v drugi pa nič.
Palica je zadela v 50% testov.
02:40
And it got it 50 percentodstotkov of the time --
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02:42
(LaughterSmeh)
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To je pričakovana kvota pri metanju kovanca.
02:43
whichki is exactlytočno what you'dTi bi expectpričakovati
with a coin-flipkovancev modelmodel.
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02:46
So that's just a funzabavno little exampleprimer
here of the sortsvrste of things we do.
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To je zabaven primer tega, kar delamo.
Skeptik izide vsake tri mesece.
02:50
"SkepticSkeptik" is the quarterlyčetrtletno publicationobjavo.
EachVsak one has a particularzlasti themetema.
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Vsak ima določeno temo. Ta je o prihodnosti inteligence.
02:54
This one is on the futureprihodnost of intelligenceinteligenca.
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Postajajo ljudje pametnejši ali neumnejši?
02:56
Are people gettingpridobivanje smarterpametnejši or dumberdumber?
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O tem imam svoje mnenje zaradi dela, ki ga opravljam.
02:58
I have an opinionmnenje of this myselfjaz
because of the businessposlovanje I'm in,
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Izkazalo se je, da postajajo ljudje pametnejši.
03:01
but in factdejstvo, people, it turnszavrti out,
are gettingpridobivanje smarterpametnejši.
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Vsakih 10 let se IQ dvigne za tri točke.
03:03
ThreeTri IQIQ pointstočke perna 10 yearslet, going up.
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03:06
SortRazvrščanje of an interestingzanimivo thing.
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Zanimiva zadeva.
03:08
With scienceznanost, don't think of skepticismSkepticizem
as a thing, or scienceznanost as a thing.
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Ne mislite, da je skepticizem stvar ali da je znanost stvar.
Sta znanost in religija združljivi?
03:12
Are scienceznanost and religionreligija compatiblezdružljiv?
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03:13
It's like, are scienceznanost
and plumbingvodovod compatiblezdružljiv?
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Sta znanost in vodovodarstvo združljiva?
To sta dve različni stvari.
03:16
They're just two differentdrugačen things.
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03:17
ScienceZnanost is not a thing. It's a verbglagol.
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Znanost ni stvar. Znanost je glagol.
03:19
It's a way of thinkingrazmišljanje about things.
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To je način razmišljanja o stvareh.
03:21
It's a way of looking for naturalnaravno
explanationspojasnila for all phenomenapojavov.
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Je način iskanja naravnih razlag za fenomene.
Kaj je bolj verjetno -
03:24
I mean, what's more likelyverjetno:
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03:25
that extraterrestrialzunajzemeljsko intelligencesinteligence
or multi-dimensionalvečdimenzionalno beingsbitja
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da izvenzemeljske inteligence ali večdimenzionalna bitja potujejo
03:29
travelpotovanje acrossčez vastogromno distancesrazdalje
of interstellarmedzvezdni spaceprostor
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skozi širjave medzvezdnega prostora in naredijo kroge
03:31
to leavedopust a croppridelek circlekrog in FarmerKmet Bob'sOsebe Bob
fieldpolje in PuckerbrushPuckerbrush, KansasKansas
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na žitnem polju kmeta Boba v Kansasu za promocijo naše strani skeptic.com?
03:34
to promotespodbujati skepticskeptik.comcom, our websplet pagestran?
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Ali je bolj mogoče, da je bralec Skeptika to naredil s programom Photoshop?
03:36
Or is it more likelyverjetno that a readerbralec
of "SkepticSkeptik" did this with PhotoshopPhotoshop?
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V vseh primerih se moramo vprašati...
03:41
And in all casesprimerov we have to askvprašajte --
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(smeh)
03:42
(LaughterSmeh)
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03:44
What's the more likelyverjetno explanationrazlago?
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...katera razlaga je najbolj možna?
03:46
Before we say something
is out of this worldsvet,
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Preden rečemo, da je nekaj izven tega sveta,
se moramo prepričati, da gotovo ni s tega sveta.
03:48
we should first make sure
that it's not in this worldsvet.
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Kaj je bolj mogoče...
03:51
What's more likelyverjetno:
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da je imel Arnold izvenzemeljsko pomoč pri kandidiranju za guvernerja?
03:52
that ArnoldArnold had extraterrestrialzunajzemeljsko help
in his runteči for the governorshipguvernerstvo,
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Ali da si World Weekly News izmišlja novice?
03:56
or that the "WorldSvet WeeklyTedenski NewsNovice"
makesnaredi stuffstvari up?
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03:58
(LaughterSmeh)
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(smeh)
Ista tema je lepo predstavljena
04:00
The sameenako themetema is expressedizraženo nicelylepo
here in this SidneySidney HarrisHarris cartoonrisanka.
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na tej sliki s Sidneyjem Harrisom.
04:04
For those of you in the back,
it sayspravi here: "Then a miraclečudež occursse zgodi.
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Za tiste zadaj, tu piše: Nato se zgodi čudež.
04:08
I think you need to be more
expliciteksplicitno here in stepkorak two."
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V drugem koraku morate biti bolj eksplicitni.
04:10
This singlesamski slidezdrs completelypopolnoma dismantlesdemontaže
the intelligentinteligenten designoblikovanje argumentsargumente.
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Ta posnetek poruši vse inteligentne oblikovne argumente v obliki slike.
Ničesar drugega ni več.
04:15
There's nothing more to it than that.
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(aplavz)
04:17
(ApplauseAplavz)
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Lahko rečete, da se je zgodil čudež.
04:18
You can say a miraclečudež occursse zgodi,
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04:19
it's just that it doesn't explainpojasnite
anything or offerponudbe anything.
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A to ne razloži ničesar.
Ničesar ne ponudi. Ničesar ne moremo testirati.
04:22
There's nothing to testtest.
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To je konec pogovora za inteligentne ustvarjalce.
04:23
It's the endkonec of the conversationpogovor
for intelligentinteligenten designoblikovanje creationistsustvarjalci.
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Kjerkoli že - in je res, znanstveniki uporabijo izraze, kot so
04:27
And it's trueresnično, scientistsznanstveniki sometimesvčasih throwmetati
termspogoji out as linguisticjezikovno placemesto fillerspolnila --
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naslednji izrazi - temna energija ali temna snov ali kaj podobnega.
04:32
darktemno energyenergija or darktemno matterzadevo,
something like that --
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Dokler ne ugotovimo, kaj to je, naj bo ime takšno.
04:34
untildo we figureštevilka out what it is,
we'llbomo call it this.
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To je začetek tradicionalne verige za znanost.
04:37
It's the beginningzačetek of the causalvzročna
chainverige for scienceznanost.
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Za inteligentne ustvarjalce je to konec verige.
04:39
For intelligentinteligenten designoblikovanje creationistsustvarjalci,
it's the endkonec of the chainverige.
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Torej še enkrat se lahko vprašamo -- kaj je bolj verjetno --
04:43
So again, we can askvprašajte this:
what's more likelyverjetno?
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so NLP-ji vesoljske ladje ali kognitivne napake, morda le ponaredki?
04:46
Are UFOsNLP-jev alientujec spaceshipsvesoljske ladje, or perceptualperceptual
cognitivekognitivno mistakesnapake, or even fakesponaredke?
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04:50
This is a UFOUFO shotstrel from my househiša
in AltadenaAltadena, CaliforniaCalifornia,
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To je posnetek NLP-ja iz moje hiše v Altadeni v Kaliforniji.
04:53
looking down over PasadenaPasadena.
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S pogledom proti Pasadeni.
04:55
And if it looksizgleda a lot like a BuickBuick
hubcaphubcap, it's because it is.
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Če zgleda kot pokrov od avtomobilskega kolesa, je to zato, ker to je.
04:59
You don't even need PhotoshopPhotoshop
or high-techvisoka tehnologija equipmentopremo,
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Ni potreben niti Photoshop niti vrhunska elektronska oprema,
niso potrebni računalniki.
05:02
you don't need computersračunalniki.
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05:03
This was shotstrel with a throwawayvrzi stran
KodakKodak InstamaticInstamatic camerakamera.
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To je bilo posneto s Kodakovim fotoaparatom za enkratno uporabo.
05:06
You just have somebodynekdo off on the sidestran
with a hubcaphubcap readypripravljen to go.
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Potrebuješ le nekoga, ki drži pokrov, in si pripravljen.
Fotoaparat je pripravljen - to je to.
05:09
Camera'sFotoaparata readypripravljen -- that's it.
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(smeh)
05:11
(LaughterSmeh)
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Čeprav je mogoče, da je večina teh reči ponaredkov
05:13
So, althoughčeprav it's possiblemogoče
that mostnajbolj of these things are fakeponaredek
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05:16
or illusionsiluzije or so on,
and that some of them are realresnično,
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ali iluzij, ter da je nekaj od njih resničnih,
je bolj verjetno, da so vsi ponaredki, kot žitni krogi.
05:20
it's more likelyverjetno that all of them
are fakeponaredek, like the croppridelek circleskroge.
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Če se zresnimo, v celotni znanosti iščemo ravnovesje
05:23
On a more seriousresno noteOpomba, in all of scienceznanost
we're looking for a balanceravnovesje
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med podatki in teorijo.
05:27
betweenmed datapodatkov and theoryteorija.
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05:28
In the caseprimera of GalileoGalileo,
he had two problemstežave
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Na primer, Galilejo je imel dva problema,
05:32
when he turnedobrnjen his telescopeteleskop to SaturnSaturn.
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ko je usmeril teleskop proti Saturnu.
Prvič, takrat ni bilo nobene teorije o planetarnih obročih.
05:35
First of all, there was no
theoryteorija of planetaryplanetarni ringsobroči.
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Drugič, njegovi posnetki so bili nejasni in nečisti,
05:38
SecondDrugi of all, his datapodatkov
was grainyzrnat and fuzzymehka,
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zato ni mogel natančno ugotoviti, kaj gleda.
05:40
and he couldn'tni mogel quitečisto make out
what he was looking at.
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Napisal je torej, kar je videl:
05:43
So he wrotenapisal that he had seenvidel --
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05:44
"I have observedopazili that the furthestnajbolj oddaljeni
planetplanet has threetri bodiestelesa."
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"Opazil sem, da ima najbolj oddaljeni planet tri telesa."
In to je tisto, kar je na koncu trdil, da je videl.
05:48
And this is what he endedkončal up
concludingsklepanje that he saw.
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Brez teorije o planetarnih obročih in samo z nejasnimi podatki
05:51
So withoutbrez a theoryteorija of planetaryplanetarni
ringsobroči and with only grainyzrnat datapodatkov,
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05:54
you can't have a good theoryteorija.
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ni mogoče imeti dobre teorije.
05:56
It wasn'tni bilo solvedrešiti untildo 1655.
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In vse do leta 1655 ni bilo rešeno.
05:58
This is ChristiaanChristiaan Huygens'sHuygens je bookknjigo
that catalogskatalogi all the mistakesnapake
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To je knjiga Cristiaana Huygensa, v kateri je zapisal vse napake,
06:01
people madeizdelane tryingposkušam to figureštevilka out
what was going on with SaturnSaturn.
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ki so jih naredili ljudje, ko so skušali ugotoviti, kaj se dogaja s Saturnom.
Vse dokler ni imel Huygens dveh stvari.
06:04
It wasn'tni bilo tilldo HuygensHuygens had two things:
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Dobre teorije o planetarnih obročih in delovanju sončnega sistema.
06:06
He had a good theoryteorija of planetaryplanetarni ringsobroči
and how the solarsončna energija systemsistem operatedupravljali,
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06:10
and he had better telescopicteleskopski,
more fine-grainfino zrno datapodatkov
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Imel je tudi boljši teleskop in natančnejše podatke,
06:13
in whichki he could figureštevilka out that
as the EarthZemlja is going around fasterhitreje --
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iz katerih je lahko ugotovil, da Zemlja kroži hitreje
- po Keplerjevih zakonih - kot Saturn, kasneje ga mi dohitimo.
06:17
accordingglede na to Kepler'sKepler je LawsZakoni --
than SaturnSaturn, then we catchulov up with it.
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Tudi obroči so vidni pod različnimi koti.
06:20
And we see the angleskoti of the ringsobroči
at differentdrugačen angleskoti, there.
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06:23
And that, in factdejstvo, turnszavrti out to be trueresnično.
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In to se je izkazalo za resnično.
Problem s teorijo je ta,
06:26
The problemproblem with havingimeti a theoryteorija is that
it maylahko be loadednaložen with cognitivekognitivno biasespristranskosti.
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da je morda v njej veliko dvoumnosti.
Zato je eden od problemov, zakaj ljudje verjamejo v čudne stvari
06:31
So one of the problemstežave of explainingrazlaga
why people believe weirdčudno things
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ta, da gledamo na stvari na osnovni ravni.
06:34
is that we have things, on a simplepreprosto levelravni,
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Potem bom pokazal zapletenejše primere.
06:36
and then I'll go to more seriousresno onestiste.
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Na primer, ljudje pogosto vidimo obraze.
06:38
Like, we have a tendencytežnja to see facesobrazi.
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To je obraz na Marsu, ki je bil
06:40
This is the faceobraz on MarsMars.
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slikan leta 1976, med NASINIM raziskovanjem
06:42
In 1976, where there was a wholeceloto movementpremikanje
to get NASANASA to photographfotografija that areaobmočje
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in slikanjem tistega območja, ker so ljudje mislili
06:46
because people thought this was monumentalmonumentalno
architecturearhitektura madeizdelane by MartiansMarsovci.
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da je to arhitektura, ki so jo naredili Marsovci.
No, izkaže se - tu je bližnji posnetek iz leta 2001.
06:50
Here'sTukaj je the close-upZapri of it from 2001.
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06:53
If you squintmrčenje, you can still see the faceobraz.
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Če nekoliko zaškilimo, vidimo obraz.
In ko škilimo v bistvu
06:56
And when you're squintingprežvekovanje,
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06:57
you're turningobračanje that from fine-grainfino zrno
to coarse-graingrobo zrno,
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spreminjamo kvaliteto iz dobre v slabo.
Torej zmanjšujemo kvaliteto podatkov.
07:00
so you're reducingzmanjšanje
the qualitykakovost of your datapodatkov.
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Tudi če vam ne bi povedal, kaj morate videti,bi še vedno videli obraz,
07:02
And if I didn't tell you what to look for,
you'dTi bi still see the faceobraz,
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ker smo ljudje z evolucijo programirani, da vidimo obraze.
07:05
because we're programmedprogramirano
by evolutionevolucijo to see facesobrazi.
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Obrazi so za nas družbeno pomembni.
07:08
FacesObrazi are importantpomembno for us sociallysocialno.
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In seveda - srečni obrazi.
07:10
And of courseseveda, happyvesel facesobrazi,
facesobrazi of all kindsvrste are easyenostavno to see.
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Enostavno je videti različne obraze.
(smeh)
07:14
You see the happyvesel faceobraz on MarsMars, there.
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Lahko opazite nasmejan obraz na Marsu.
07:16
(LaughterSmeh)
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Če bi bili astronavti žabe, bi morda videli Kermita.
07:17
If astronomersastronomi were frogsžabe,
perhapsmorda they'doni bi see KermitKermit the FrogŽaba.
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Ali ga vidite?
07:20
Do you see him there? Little froggyfroggy legsnog.
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Majhne žabje nogice.
07:22
Or if geologistsgeologi were elephantssloni?
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Ali pa če bi bili geologi sloni?
07:25
ReligiousVerske iconographyikonografija.
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Verska ikona.
07:28
(LaughterSmeh)
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(smeh)
Odkril jo je pekar iz Tennesseeja leta 1996.
07:31
DiscoveredOdkril by a TennesseeTennessee bakerpekar in 1996.
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07:33
He chargedzaračuna fivepet bucksdolarjev a headglava
to come see the nunnuna bunŽemlja
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Računal je 5$ na osebo, ki je hotela videti nuno,
vse dokler ni dobil prepovedi odvetnika Matere Tereze.
07:36
tilldo he got a cease-and-desistprenehati in se odpovedati
from MotherMati Teresa'sTerezije lawyerodvetnik.
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Tukaj je Naša Dama iz Guadalupe in Naša Dama iz Watsonvilla, dol po cesti.
07:40
Here'sTukaj je Our LadyLady of GuadalupeGuadalupe and Our
LadyLady of WatsonvilleWatsonville, just down the streetulica,
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07:43
or is it up the streetulica from here?
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Ali morda navzgor po cesti?
07:45
TreeDrevo barklubje is particularlyzlasti good
because it's nicelepo and grainyzrnat, branchyrazvejani,
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Vzorec na drevesu je še posebej dober, ker je grob,
07:48
black-and-whitečrno in belo splotchysplitchy and you can
get the pattern-seekingiskanje vzorcev --
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črnobel in nepravilen. Kot nalašč za iskanje vzorcev --
ljudje smo iskalci vzorcev.
07:51
humansljudje are pattern-seekingiskanje vzorcev animalsživali.
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07:53
Here'sTukaj je the VirginDevica MaryMary on the sidestran
of a glasssteklo windowokno in SaoSao PauloPaulo.
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Tukaj je Devica Marija na zunanjem delu steklenega okna v Sao Paulu.
In tukaj je Devica Marija na sendviču -
07:57
Here'sTukaj je when the VirginDevica MaryMary madeizdelane
her appearancevidez on a cheesesir sandwichsendvič --
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ki sem ga držal lasvegaškem kazinoju,
08:00
whichki I got to actuallydejansko
holddržite in a LasLas VegasVegas casinocasino --
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seveda - v Ameriki.
08:03
of courseseveda, this beingbiti AmericaAmerika.
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(smeh)
08:04
(LaughterSmeh)
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08:06
This casinocasino paidplačani $28,500
on eBayeBay for the cheesesir sandwichsendvič.
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Ta kazino je plačal 28,500$ na eBay-u za dva sirova sendviča.
08:10
(LaughterSmeh)
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(smeh)
08:12
But who does it really look like?
The VirginDevica MaryMary?
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Ampak komu je zares podobna, Devici Mariji?
(smeh)
08:15
(LaughterSmeh)
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Ima lička iz 1940-ih let.
08:17
It has that sortRazvrsti of
puckeredpuckered lipsustnice, 1940s-eraS-era look.
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Devica Marija v Clearwathu na Floridi.
08:21
VirginDevica MaryMary in ClearwaterClearwater, FloridaFlorida.
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08:22
I actuallydejansko wentšla to see this one.
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1976
Slednjo sem dejansko šel pogledat.
08:24
There was a lot of people there.
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Veliko ljudi je bilo tam, vernikov
08:26
The faithfulzvest come in theirnjihovi wheelchairsinvalidski vozički
and crutchesbergle, and so on.
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v invalidskih vozičkih, z berglami in tako naprej.
Zadevo smo raziskali.
08:31
We wentšla down and investigatedpreiskovan.
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Samo da dobite predstavo o velikosti - Dawkins, jaz in neverjetni Randi,
08:33
Just to give you a sizevelikost, that's DawkinsDawkins,
me and The AmazingNeverjetno RandiRandi,
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nasproti teh dveh pa dva in pol nadstropja velika slika.
08:36
nextNaslednji to this two,
two and a halfpol story-sizedzgodba imagesliko.
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Vse te sveče so prižgali verniki.
08:38
All these candlessveče, thousandstisoče of candlessveče
people had litlit in tributepoklon to this.
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Odšli smo na zadnjo stran, da bi videli, kaj se dogaja tam.
08:42
So we walkedhodil around the backsideZadnja stran,
to see what was going on.
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Izkazalo se je, da kjerkoli imamo škropilnico in palmino drevo,
08:45
It turnszavrti out whereverkjerkoli there's
a sprinklersprinkler headglava and a palmpalm treedrevo,
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dobimo ta efekt.
08:48
you get the effectučinek.
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08:49
Here'sTukaj je the VirginDevica MaryMary on the backsideZadnja stran,
whichki they startedzačel to wipeobrišite off.
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Tu je Devica Marija na zadnji strani, katero so začeli brisati.
Ugibam, da imaš lahko le en čudež na zgradbo.
08:53
I guessugibati you can only have
one miraclečudež perna buildingstavbe.
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08:55
(LaughterSmeh)
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(smeh)
Ampak, ali je res Marijin čudež ali je to Marge?
08:59
So is it really a miraclečudež of MaryMary,
or is it a miraclečudež of MargeMarge?
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(smeh)
09:02
(LaughterSmeh)
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1001
Zaključil bom še z enim primerom.
09:03
And now I'm going to finishkonča up
with anotherdrugo exampleprimer of this,
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Z glasbo - glasbeno iluzijo.
09:07
with auditoryslušni illusionsiluzije.
196
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Obstaja film "Bel Šum",
09:10
There's this filmfilm, "WhiteBela NoiseHrup,"
with MichaelMichael KeatonKeaton,
197
525513
2526
z Michaelom Kaeatonom, govori o mrtvih, ki govorijo z nami.
09:12
about the deadmrtev talkinggovoriti back to us.
198
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Mimogrede, ves ta posel govorjenja mrtvim sploh ni tako težaven.
09:15
By the way, the wholeceloto businessposlovanje of talkinggovoriti
to the deadmrtev is not that bigvelik a dealobravnava.
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Vsakdo lahko to naredi.
09:19
AnybodyVsakdo can do it, turnszavrti out.
200
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Težje je narediti, da mrtvi odgovori.
09:20
It's gettingpridobivanje the deadmrtev to talk
back that's the really hardtežko partdel.
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(smeh)
09:23
(LaughterSmeh)
202
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V tem primeru so sporočila skrita v elektronskem zapisu.
09:24
In this caseprimera, supposedlydomnevno, these messagessporočil
are hiddenskrito in electronicelektronsko phenomenapojavov.
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09:28
There's a ReverseSpeechReverseSpeech.comcom websplet pagestran
where I downloadedpreneseno this stuffstvari.
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S spletne strani ReverseSpeech.com sem prenesel te stvari.
Tukaj je normalen posnetek - najbolj znan od vseh tovrstnih posnetkov.
09:31
This is the mostnajbolj famousslavni one
of all of these.
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To je normalen posnetek ene najbolj znanih pesmi.
09:35
Here'sTukaj je the forwardnaprej versionrazličico
of the very famousslavni songpesem.
206
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09:37
(MusicGlasba with lyricslyrics)
207
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09:39
If there's a bustlevrveža in your hedgerowhedgerow
don't be alarmedvznemirjen now.
208
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09:44
It's just a springspomladi cleančisto
for the MayMaja QueenKraljica.
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09:50
Yes, there are two pathspoti you
can go by, but in the long runteči,
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4987
09:56
There's still time to changesprememba
the roadcesta you're on
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Ne bi to lahko poslušali cel dan?
10:03
Couldn'tNi mogel you just listen to that all day?
212
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(smeh)
In zdaj posnetek nazaj,
10:06
All right, here it is backwardsnazaj,
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10:07
and see if you can hearslišite the hiddenskrito
messagessporočil that are supposedlydomnevno in there.
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poskusite, če boste slišali sporočilo, ki je baje zakrinkano.
10:12
(MusicGlasba with unintelligiblenerazumljivo lyricslyrics)
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10:26
(LyricsLyrics) SatanSatan!
216
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10:27
(UnintelligibleNerazumljiv lyricslyrics continuenadaljuj)
217
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Kaj ste ujeli?
10:41
What did you get?
AudienceObčinstvo: SatanSatan!
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(Občinstvo: Satan.)
10:43
SatanSatan. OK, at leastvsaj we got "SatanSatan".
219
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Satan? Vsaj to smo ujeli.
10:45
Now, I'll primeprime the auditoryslušni
partdel of your brainmožganov
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Sedaj bom prepričal glasbeni del vaših možganov,
10:47
to tell you what you're supposeddomnevno
to hearslišite, and then hearslišite it again.
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kaj morate slišati in vam posnetek zopet predvajal.
10:50
(MusicGlasba with lyricslyrics)
222
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11:17
(MusicGlasba endskonča)
223
652673
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(smeh)
11:18
(LaughterSmeh)
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(Aplavz)
11:19
(ApplauseAplavz)
225
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Ne morete zgrešiti, ko vam povem, kaj je tam.
11:26
You can't misszgrešiti it
when I tell you what's there.
226
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11:28
(LaughterSmeh)
227
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(smeh)
Končal bom z lepo pozitivno zgodbo
11:32
I'm going to just endkonec
with a positivepozitiven, nicelepo little storyzgodba.
228
667274
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o - the Skeptics je neprofitna izobraževalna organizacija.
11:36
The SkepticsSkeptiki is a nonprofitneprofitna organizacija
educationalizobraževanje organizationorganizacija.
229
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2845
Vedno iščemo male, dobre stvari, ki jih ustvarijo ljudje.
11:39
We're always looking for little
good things that people do.
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V Angliji je priljubljena pop pevka.
11:41
And in EnglandAnglija, there's a poppop singerpevka.
231
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2009
Zelo priljubljena - na vrhu lestvic priljubljenosti v Angliji danes, Katie Melua.
11:43
One of the topna vrh popularpriljubljena singerspevci
in EnglandAnglija todaydanes, KatieKatie MeluaMelua.
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Napisala je prečudovito pesem.
11:47
And she wrotenapisal a beautifullepo songpesem.
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Leta 2005 je bila med prvimi petimi na svetu s pesmijo "Nine Milion Bicycles in Beijing".
11:49
It was in the topna vrh fivepet in 2005, calledpozval,
"NineDevet MillionMilijonov BicyclesKolesa in BeijingPeking."
234
684400
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11:54
It's a love storyzgodba -- she's sortRazvrsti
of the NorahNorah JonesJones of the UKVELIKA BRITANIJA --
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Je ljubezenska zgodba - ona je kot Norah Jones Velike Britanije -
o tem, kako močno ljubi svojega fanta
11:57
about how she much lovesljubi her guy,
236
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11:59
and comparedprimerjali to ninedevet millionmilijonov
bicycleskolesa, and so forthnaprej.
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v primerjavi z devetimi milijoni koles in tako naprej.
V pesmi je ta odlomek.
12:02
And she has this one passageprehod here.
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12:04
(MusicGlasba)
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♫Smo 12 miljardd svetlobnih let od roba♫©
12:05
(LyricsLyrics) We are 12 billionmilijardo
light-yearssvetlobnih let from the edgerob
240
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♫To je ugibanje♫
12:11
That's a guessugibati,
241
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2325
♫Nihče ne more potrditi, da je res♫
12:13
No one can ever say it's trueresnično,
242
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3711
♫Vendar vem, da vedno s tabo bom♫
12:17
But I know that I will always be with you.
243
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No, to je prijetno.
12:22
MichaelMichael ShermerShermer: Well, that's nicelepo.
At leastvsaj she got it closeblizu.
244
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2965
Navsezadnje je bila blizu.
V Ameriki bi bilo, "Smo 6000 svetlobnih let od roba"
12:25
In AmericaAmerika it'dto bi be,
"We're 6,000 lightsvetloba yearslet from the edgerob."
245
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(smeh)
12:28
(LaughterSmeh)
246
723667
1036
Toda moj prijatelj Simon Singh, fizik, sedaj znanstvenik,
12:29
But my friendprijatelj, SimonSimon SinghSingh, the particledelec
physicistfizik now turnedobrnjen scienceznanost educatorvzgojitelj,
247
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je napisal knjigo Veliki Pok.
12:33
who wrotenapisal the bookknjigo
"The BigVelik BangBang," and so on,
248
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2127
Vsako priložnost izkoristi za promoviranje dobre znanosti.
12:35
usesuporabe everyvsak chancepriložnost he getsdobi
to promotespodbujati good scienceznanost.
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Zato je v časopisu Guardian napisal članek o pesmi,
12:37
And so he wrotenapisal an op-edop-ed piecekos
in "The GuardianVaruh" about Katie'sKatie songpesem,
250
733100
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v katerem je zatrdil, da vemo natančno, kako stari, kako daleč od roba smo.
12:41
in whichki he said, well, we know exactlytočno
how fardaleč from the edgerob.
251
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5036
Smo 12, 13.7 milijard let stari in to ni ugibanje.
12:46
You know, it's 13.7 billionmilijardo lightsvetloba yearslet,
and it's not a guessugibati.
252
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3818
Natančno vemo, kako blizu smo.
12:50
We know withinznotraj precisenatančno
errornapaka barspalice how closeblizu it is.
253
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4264
In tako lahko rečemo, da ne absolutno resnično, a zelo blizu resničnemu.
12:54
So we can say, althoughčeprav not absolutelyabsolutno
trueresnično, it's prettylepa closeblizu to beingbiti trueresnično.
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Po objavi članka ga je Katie poklicala.
12:58
And, to his creditkredit, KatieKatie calledpozval him up
after this op-edop-ed piecekos cameprišel out, and said,
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Ogovorila ga je: "Zelo me je sram".
13:02
"I'm so embarrassednerodno.
I was in the astronomyastronomija clubklub.
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Bila sem članka astronomskega krožka in lahko bi vedela bolj natančno.
13:05
I should'vemoram knownznano better."
257
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Tako je popravila pesem.
13:06
And she re-cutponovite the songpesem.
258
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Končal bo z novo verzijo.
13:07
So I will endkonec with the newnovo versionrazličico.
259
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♫Smo 13.7 miljarde svetlobnih let♫
13:09
(MusicGlasba with lyricslyrics)
260
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13:11
We are 13.7 billionmilijardo lightsvetloba yearslet
261
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♫od roba opazovanega vesolja♫
13:13
from the edgerob of the observableopazen universevesolje.
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3491
♫To je dober približek z dobro natančnostjo napake♫
13:17
That's a good estimateoceniti
with well-defineddobro definirani errornapaka barspalice.
263
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♫In z dosegljivi informacijami♫
13:20
And with the availablena voljo informationinformacije,
264
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♫predvideva, da s tabo vedno bom♫
13:24
I predictnapovedati that I will always be with you.
265
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(aplavz)
13:28
(LaughterSmeh)
266
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1157
Kako kul je to?
13:29
How coolkul is that?
267
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(aplavz)
13:30
(ApplauseAplavz)
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785969
2031
Translated by Aleksander Fabijan
Reviewed by Janja Sterle

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shermer - Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market.

Why you should listen

As founder and publisher of Skeptic Magazine, Michael Shermer has exposed fallacies behind intelligent design, 9/11 conspiracies, the low-carb craze, alien sightings and other popular beliefs and paranoias. But it's not about debunking for debunking's sake. Shermer defends the notion that we can understand our world better only by matching good theory with good science.

Shermer's work offers cognitive context for our often misguided beliefs: In the absence of sound science, incomplete information can powerfully combine with the power of suggestion (helping us hear Satanic lyrics when "Stairway to Heaven" plays backwards, for example). In fact, a common thread that runs through beliefs of all sorts, he says, is our tendency to convince ourselves: We overvalue the shreds of evidence that support our preferred outcome, and ignore the facts we aren't looking for.

He writes a monthly column for Scientific American, and is an adjunct at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University. His latest book is The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. He is also the author of The Mind of the Market, on evolutionary economics, Why Darwin Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design, and The Science of Good and Evil. And his next book is titled The Moral Arc of Science.

More profile about the speaker
Michael Shermer | Speaker | TED.com