ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shermer - Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market.

Why you should listen

As founder and publisher of Skeptic Magazine, Michael Shermer has exposed fallacies behind intelligent design, 9/11 conspiracies, the low-carb craze, alien sightings and other popular beliefs and paranoias. But it's not about debunking for debunking's sake. Shermer defends the notion that we can understand our world better only by matching good theory with good science.

Shermer's work offers cognitive context for our often misguided beliefs: In the absence of sound science, incomplete information can powerfully combine with the power of suggestion (helping us hear Satanic lyrics when "Stairway to Heaven" plays backwards, for example). In fact, a common thread that runs through beliefs of all sorts, he says, is our tendency to convince ourselves: We overvalue the shreds of evidence that support our preferred outcome, and ignore the facts we aren't looking for.

He writes a monthly column for Scientific American, and is an adjunct at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University. His latest book is The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. He is also the author of The Mind of the Market, on evolutionary economics, Why Darwin Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design, and The Science of Good and Evil. And his next book is titled The Moral Arc of Science.

More profile about the speaker
Michael Shermer | Speaker | TED.com
TED2006

Michael Shermer: Why people believe weird things

麥可‧薛莫-奇異的信念

Filmed:
7,339,268 views

為什麼人們會看到聖母瑪利亞在三明治上,或是會聽到"天堂之梯"那有魔力的歌詞呢?利用影片跟音樂,懷疑論者協會理事長麥可‧薛莫告訴我們要如何說服自己去相信、細看事實。
- Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:24
I'm Michael邁克爾 Shermer舍默,
director導向器 of the Skeptics懷疑論者 Society社會,
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嗨!我是麥可‧薛莫,是懷疑論者協會理事長。
懷疑論者雜誌的發行人。
00:27
publisher出版者 of "Skeptic懷疑論者" magazine雜誌.
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我們調查聲稱超自然偽科學的現象,
00:28
We investigate調查 claims索賠 of the paranormal超自然,
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邊緣科學、邪教和種種主張 -
00:30
pseudo-science偽科學, fringe邊緣 groups and cults邪教,
and claims索賠 of all kinds between之間,
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00:34
science科學 and pseudo-science偽科學
and non-science非科學 and junk破爛 science科學,
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科學和偽科學和非科學和垃圾科學,
巫毒科學、病態科學、壞科學、非科學,
00:37
voodoo巫毒教 science科學, pathological病態的 science科學,
bad science科學, non-science非科學,
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00:40
and plain old non-sense廢話.
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以及無稽之談。
00:42
And unless除非 you've been on Mars火星 recently最近,
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除非你最近去過火星,
00:44
you know there's a lot of that out there.
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你知道世上有許多這些東西,
00:46
Some people call us debunkers揭穿真面目,
which哪一個 is kind of a negative term術語.
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所以,人人稱我們為拆穿者 雖然這稱呼有點負面。
00:49
But let's face面對 it, there's a lot of bunk假寐.
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但是,承認吧!確實有太多胡說八道了。
我們就像是警察局的詐騙小組進行掃除工作,
00:51
We are like the bunko文庫 squads敢死隊
of the police警察 departments部門 out there --
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00:55
well, we're sort分類 of like
the Ralph拉爾夫 NadersNaders of bad ideas思路,
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我們就像是偵辦壞主意的拉爾夫納德檢察官。
00:58
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
嘗試將壞主意換成好的。
01:00
trying to replace更換 bad ideas思路
with good ideas思路.
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01:02
I'll show顯示 you an example of a bad idea理念.
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讓我給你們看看壞主意長什麼樣子
01:04
I brought this with me,
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我帶來了這個
01:05
this was given特定 to us
by NBCNBC Dateline日界線 to test測試.
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NBC晨間節目把這個給我們做測試
01:09
It's produced生成 by the Quadro的Quadro
Corporation公司 of West西 Virginia弗吉尼亞州.
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由西維吉尼亞州的Quadro公司所製造,
稱為Quadro2000探測棒。
01:13
It's called the Quadro的Quadro 2000 Dowser擋光板 Rod竿.
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(笑聲)
01:16
(Laughter笑聲)
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01:17
This was being存在 sold出售 to high-school中學
administrators管理員 for $900 apiece一塊.
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賣給高中職員 一個900塊美金
01:22
It's a piece of plastic塑料 with a Radio無線電
Shack窩棚 antenna天線 attached to it.
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由一片塑膠連接RadioShack牌天線所組成。
你可以用它探測任何東西 但是這一款,是特別為
01:27
You could dowse道斯 for all sorts排序 of things,
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01:29
but this particular特定 one was built內置
to dowse道斯 for marijuana大麻
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探測學生置物櫃裡的大麻所設計的。
01:32
in students'學生們' lockers儲物櫃.
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01:33
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
使用方法是你走進走廊一路偵測,看天線是否
01:36
So the way it works作品
is you go down the hallway門廳,
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01:39
and you see if it tilts傾斜
toward a particular特定 locker更衣室,
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會指向某個置物櫃,然後,你就可以打開來檢查。
01:42
and then you open打開 the locker更衣室.
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所以,看起來就像這樣。
01:44
So it looks容貌 something like this.
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我秀給你們看。
01:45
I'll show顯示 you.
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01:48
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
01:49
Well, it has kind of a right-leaning偏右翼 bias偏壓.
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不,噢!它似乎會偏右邊。
所以,嗯!這是科學,所以我們來做個核對實驗。
01:53
Well, this is science科學,
so we'll do a controlled受控 experiment實驗.
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從這邊走應該就會朝向這邊了。
01:56
It'll它會 go this way for sure.
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(笑聲)
01:57
(Laughter笑聲)
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02:01
Sir先生, do you want to empty
your pockets口袋, please, sir先生?
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先生,可以請您掏出您的口袋嗎?先生。
(笑聲)
02:04
(Laughter笑聲)
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所以,問題是,這真的能找出學生置物櫃裡藏的大麻嗎?
02:06
So the question was, can it actually其實
find marijuana大麻 in students'學生們' lockers儲物櫃?
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答案是,如果你開得夠多,就找得出來。
02:09
And the answer回答 is,
if you open打開 enough足夠 of them, yes.
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(笑聲)
02:12
(Laughter笑聲)
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(掌聲)
02:13
(Applause掌聲)
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02:14
But in science科學, we have to keep track跟踪
of the misses錯過, not just the hits點擊.
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但是,在科學上我們必須記錄那些不準的,不能只記準的。
這也許就是我這簡短演講的重點,那就是
02:18
And that's probably大概 the key lesson
to my short talk here:
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02:21
This is how psychics心理學 work, astrologers占星家,
tarot塔羅牌 card readers讀者 and so on.
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這就是通靈者占星家、塔羅牌師等等的運作原理。
人們會記住準的,忘記不準的。
02:25
People remember記得 the hits點擊
and forget忘記 the misses錯過.
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在科學上,我們必須保存完整的資料。
02:27
In science科學, we keep the whole整個 database數據庫,
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檢視準確的數據是否會明顯地
02:29
and look to see if the number
of hits點擊 somehow不知何故 stands站立 out
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從全部可預測的機率數字當中突顯出來。
02:32
from the total number
you'd expect期望 by chance機會.
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在這個例子中,我們測試了這儀器。
02:34
In this case案件, we tested測試 it.
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02:35
We had two opaque不透明 boxes盒子:
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我們準備兩個不透光的箱子,
02:37
one with government-approved政府批准 THCTHC
marijuana大麻, and one with nothing.
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一個藏有政府認證含有四氫大麻酚的大麻,另一個是空的,
準確度是一半一半,
02:40
And it got it 50 percent百分 of the time --
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02:42
(Laughter笑聲)
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跟你可預測的丟銅板的機率法則完全一樣。
02:43
which哪一個 is exactly究竟 what you'd expect期望
with a coin-flip硬幣翻轉 model模型.
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02:46
So that's just a fun開玩笑 little example
here of the sorts排序 of things we do.
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所以,這只是個有趣的小例子告訴你我們,工作的性質。
懷疑論者雜誌是個季刊,
02:50
"Skeptic懷疑論者" is the quarterly季刊 publication出版物.
Each one has a particular特定 theme主題.
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每季都有個主題,例如這一個是關於未來智慧的,
02:54
This one is on the future未來 of intelligence情報.
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人是愈來愈聰明?還是愈來愈笨?
02:56
Are people getting得到 smarter聰明 or dumber?
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因為工作的關係,我自己對這有個人的見解。
02:58
I have an opinion意見 of this myself
because of the business商業 I'm in,
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但事實上,結果顯示,人是愈來愈聰明的。
03:01
but in fact事實, people, it turns out,
are getting得到 smarter聰明.
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每十年提升3個IQ數值。
03:03
Three IQ智商 points per 10 years年份, going up.
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03:06
Sort分類 of an interesting有趣 thing.
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這點蠻有趣的。
03:08
With science科學, don't think of skepticism懷疑論
as a thing, or science科學 as a thing.
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講科學不能把懷疑論或甚至是科學當作一樣東西。
像是在問科學和宗教可並立嗎?
03:12
Are science科學 and religion宗教 compatible兼容?
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03:13
It's like, are science科學
and plumbing水暖 compatible兼容?
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像是在問科學與水電並立嗎?
這些它們其實就是兩種不同的東西。
03:16
They're just two different不同 things.
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03:17
Science科學 is not a thing. It's a verb動詞.
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科學不是東西,而是動詞,
03:19
It's a way of thinking思維 about things.
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是思考事物的方式。
03:21
It's a way of looking for natural自然
explanations說明 for all phenomena現象.
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是為所有現象尋找自然的解釋的方法。
我的意思是,
03:24
I mean, what's more likely容易:
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03:25
that extraterrestrial外星人 intelligences智能
or multi-dimensional多維 beings眾生
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外星生物和多重次元的生靈橫跨
03:29
travel旅行 across橫過 vast廣大 distances距離
of interstellar星際 space空間
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星際空間浩瀚的距離,留下麥田圈,
03:31
to leave離開 a crop作物 circle in Farmer農民 Bob's鮑勃的
field領域 in PuckerbrushPuckerbrush, Kansas堪薩斯
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在堪薩斯州帕克布萊西的鮑伯農場上,宣傳我們的網站skeptic.com的可能性較大,
03:34
to promote促進 skeptic懷疑論者.comCOM, our web捲筒紙 page?
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還是某懷疑論者雜誌的讀者利用Photoshop製作出來的可能性大呢?
03:36
Or is it more likely容易 that a reader讀者
of "Skeptic懷疑論者" did this with PhotoshopPhotoshop中?
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在所有這些案例裡頭,我們都必須問,
03:41
And in all cases we have to ask --
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(笑聲)
03:42
(Laughter笑聲)
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03:44
What's the more likely容易 explanation說明?
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最有可能的解釋是什麼?
03:46
Before we say something
is out of this world世界,
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在我們說有些東西來自外世界之前,
我們首先應該查明它並不存在於這個世界。
03:48
we should first make sure
that it's not in this world世界.
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哪個可能性較高,
03:51
What's more likely容易:
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阿諾史瓦辛格有外星人幫忙競選州長呢?
03:52
that Arnold阿諾德 had extraterrestrial外星人 help
in his run for the governorship州長,
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或是世界新聞周刊捏造的呢?
03:56
or that the "World世界 Weekly每週 News新聞"
makes品牌 stuff東東 up?
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03:58
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
其中同樣的主題,卻在辛尼海羅斯的卡通中,
04:00
The same相同 theme主題 is expressed表達 nicely很好
here in this Sidney西德尼 Harris哈里斯 cartoon動畫片.
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被詮釋得很不錯。
04:04
For those of you in the back,
it says here: "Then a miracle奇蹟 occurs發生.
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給坐在後排的觀眾,這上面說,"然後奇蹟發生,
04:08
I think you need to be more
explicit明確的 here in step two."
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我覺得你應該把第二步驟說得更詳細一點。"
04:10
This single slide滑動 completely全然 dismantles擅自拆除
the intelligent智能 design設計 arguments參數.
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這一張投影片完全拆散了智慧設計論證。
再清楚也不過了。
04:15
There's nothing more to it than that.
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(掌聲)
04:17
(Applause掌聲)
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你可以說奇蹟發生。
04:18
You can say a miracle奇蹟 occurs發生,
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04:19
it's just that it doesn't explain說明
anything or offer提供 anything.
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只是這不能解釋任何事情。
不能提供什麼。沒有東西可以測試。
04:22
There's nothing to test測試.
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這是智慧設計創意工作者的談話終點。
04:23
It's the end結束 of the conversation會話
for intelligent智能 design設計 creationists神創論.
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反之,確實科學家有時會丟出一些名詞當作
04:27
And it's true真正, scientists科學家們 sometimes有時 throw
terms條款 out as linguistic語言 place地點 fillers填料 --
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語言學的填空詞--黑暗能量或黑暗物質或其他類似的等等。
04:32
dark黑暗 energy能源 or dark黑暗 matter,
something like that --
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直到我們明白這是什麼之前,我們就暫時稱它為這個,
04:34
until直到 we figure數字 out what it is,
we'll call it this.
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對科學而言這是因果連結鏈的開始。
04:37
It's the beginning開始 of the causal因果
chain for science科學.
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對智慧設計創意工作者而言,則是因果連結鏈的末端。
04:39
For intelligent智能 design設計 creationists神創論,
it's the end結束 of the chain.
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我們可以再次詢問,哪個可能性較高,
04:43
So again, we can ask this:
what's more likely容易?
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幽浮比較可能是外星人的太空船或是感官認知的錯誤或甚至是假的。
04:46
Are UFOs不明飛行物 alien外僑 spaceships飛船, or perceptual知覺的
cognitive認知 mistakes錯誤, or even fakes假貨?
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04:50
This is a UFO飛碟 shot射擊 from my house
in Altadena阿爾塔迪納, California加州,
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這是我從加州猶它旦市家中拍到的幽浮照片,
04:53
looking down over Pasadena帕薩迪納.
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向下俯瞰帕薩迪納市。
04:55
And if it looks容貌 a lot like a Buick別克
hubcap輪轂罩, it's because it is.
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如果這看起來像別克汽車的輪蓋,那是因為它根本就是。
04:59
You don't even need PhotoshopPhotoshop中
or high-tech高科技 equipment設備,
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你甚至不需要Photoshop,不需要高科技器材,
你不需要電腦,
05:02
you don't need computers電腦.
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05:03
This was shot射擊 with a throwaway丟掉
Kodak柯達 InstamaticINSTAMATIC camera相機.
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這是用柯達Instamatic拋棄型相機拍的。
05:06
You just have somebody off on the side
with a hubcap輪轂罩 ready準備 to go.
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你只需要有人在旁邊準備擲出輪蓋就可以了。
相機準備好--就這麼簡單。
05:09
Camera's相機的 ready準備 -- that's it.
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(笑聲)
05:11
(Laughter笑聲)
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雖然,大部份這些東西都有可能是假的,
05:13
So, although雖然 it's possible可能
that most of these things are fake
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05:16
or illusions幻想 or so on,
and that some of them are real真實,
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或是幻象等等,但有些是真的。
更有可能全部都是假的,就像麥田圈一樣。
05:20
it's more likely容易 that all of them
are fake, like the crop作物 circles.
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說正經的,在所有科學裡,我們都在尋找一種平衡,
05:23
On a more serious嚴重 note注意, in all of science科學
we're looking for a balance平衡
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介於數據與理論之間。
05:27
between之間 data數據 and theory理論.
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05:28
In the case案件 of Galileo伽利略,
he had two problems問題
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以伽利略來說,他有兩個困難,
05:32
when he turned轉身 his telescope望遠鏡 to Saturn土星.
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當他用望遠鏡觀察土星時,
首先,那時沒有行星環的理論,
05:35
First of all, there was no
theory理論 of planetary行星 rings戒指.
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第二,他的數據是粗糙模糊的,
05:38
Second第二 of all, his data數據
was grainy顆粒感 and fuzzy模糊,
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而且,他並不太了解自己正在看的是什麼,
05:40
and he couldn't不能 quite相當 make out
what he was looking at.
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所以他就寫下他看到了。
05:43
So he wrote that he had seen看到 --
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05:44
"I have observed觀察到的 that the furthest最遠
planet行星 has three bodies身體."
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"我觀察到最遠的星球有三個形體"。
而這是他最後對自己的觀察所做的結論。
05:48
And this is what he ended結束 up
concluding結論 that he saw.
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沒有行星環的理論且憑靠粗糙的資料,
05:51
So without a theory理論 of planetary行星
rings戒指 and with only grainy顆粒感 data數據,
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05:54
you can't have a good theory理論.
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你不可能建構很好的理論。
05:56
It wasn't solved解決了 until直到 1655.
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一直到1655年才得到解答,
05:58
This is Christiaan克里斯蒂安 Huygens's惠更斯 book
that catalogs目錄 all the mistakes錯誤
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惠更斯的書中記載了所有人在嘗試了解,
06:01
people made製作 trying to figure數字 out
what was going on with Saturn土星.
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土星時所犯的錯誤。
但是一直到惠更斯有了兩樣東西,
06:04
It wasn't till直到 Huygens惠更斯 had two things:
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好的行星環理論和了解太陽系如何運轉。
06:06
He had a good theory理論 of planetary行星 rings戒指
and how the solar太陽能 system系統 operated操作,
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06:10
and he had better telescopic伸縮式,
more fine-grain細粒度 data數據
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而且,當時他有更好的望遠鏡及更細微的數據,
06:13
in which哪一個 he could figure數字 out that
as the Earth地球 is going around faster更快 --
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從中他了解到當地球轉得比土星更快速,
根據克卜勒三大定律,然後我們會追上它。
06:17
according根據 to Kepler's開普勒 Laws法律 --
than Saturn土星, then we catch抓住 up with it.
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我們從不同的角度,看見行星環不同的角度。
06:20
And we see the angles of the rings戒指
at different不同 angles, there.
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06:23
And that, in fact事實, turns out to be true真正.
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而事實上,結果真是如此。
有理論的問題是,
06:26
The problem問題 with having a theory理論 is that
it may可能 be loaded with cognitive認知 biases偏見.
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你的理論可能會充滿認知偏見。
所以,要解釋人為何會相信奇異現象的困難之一,
06:31
So one of the problems問題 of explaining說明
why people believe weird奇怪的 things
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就是我們會簡化事物。
06:34
is that we have things, on a simple簡單 level水平,
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然後,我之後會再說比較多的例子。
06:36
and then I'll go to more serious嚴重 ones那些.
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例如,我們會傾向看見臉孔,
06:38
Like, we have a tendency趨勢 to see faces面孔.
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這些是在火星上的臉,
06:40
This is the face面對 on Mars火星.
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1976年有很多運動要求美國太空總署
06:42
In 1976, where there was a whole整個 movement運動
to get NASANASA to photograph照片 that area
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為這些地區拍攝照片,因為人們認為
06:46
because people thought this was monumental紀念
architecture建築 made製作 by Martians火星.
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這些是火星人蓋的紀念建築。
後來發現這是2001年所拍攝的近照。
06:50
Here's這裡的 the close-up特寫 of it from 2001.
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06:53
If you squint, you can still see the face面對.
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如果你斜視仍可以看見臉,
當你斜視時,你就是在
06:56
And when you're squinting瞇眼,
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06:57
you're turning車削 that from fine-grain細粒度
to coarse-grain粗粒,
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將影像從微粒變成粗粒的。
也就是說你在降低資料的品質。
07:00
so you're reducing減少
the quality質量 of your data數據.
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如果我不告訴你,該看什麼,你還是會看見臉孔,
07:02
And if I didn't tell you what to look for,
you'd still see the face面對,
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因為進化將我們設計成,會看見臉孔的生物。
07:05
because we're programmed程序
by evolution演化 to see faces面孔.
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在社交上,臉孔對我們很重要,
07:08
Faces are important重要 for us socially社交上.
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當然還有笑臉,
07:10
And of course課程, happy快樂 faces面孔,
faces面孔 of all kinds are easy簡單 to see.
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各種臉孔都很容易被看見。
(笑聲)
07:14
You see the happy快樂 face面對 on Mars火星, there.
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你可以看見火星上的笑臉在上面。
07:16
(Laughter笑聲)
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如果天文學家是青蛙的話,那麼他們可能就會看見芝麻街的青蛙柯密特。
07:17
If astronomers天文學家 were frogs青蛙,
perhaps也許 they'd他們會 see Kermit克米特 the Frog青蛙.
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看見了嗎?
07:20
Do you see him there? Little froggy小青蛙 legs.
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小小的青蛙腳。
07:22
Or if geologists地質學家 were elephants大象?
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或是如果考古學家是大象呢?
07:25
Religious宗教 iconography肖像.
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宗教肖像。
07:28
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
1996年由田納西的一位麵包師傅所發現,
07:31
Discovered發現 by a Tennessee田納西 baker麵包師傅 in 1996.
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07:33
He charged帶電 five bucks雄鹿 a head
to come see the nun尼姑 bun包子
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他收一個人頭五塊錢來讓人看這塊修女麵包,
直到他收到特瑞莎修女的律師寄來的禁止通知函為止。
07:36
till直到 he got a cease-and-desist停止和終止
from Mother母親 Teresa's德肋撒 lawyer律師.
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這是在下一條街的瓜達露珮聖母和華森維爾聖母。
07:40
Here's這裡的 Our Lady淑女 of Guadalupe瓜達盧佩 and Our
Lady淑女 of Watsonville沃森維爾, just down the street,
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07:43
or is it up the street from here?
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或是從這裡過去的上一條街?
07:45
Tree bark is particularly尤其 good
because it's nice不錯 and grainy顆粒感, branchy,
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樹皮的效果特別好,因為粗糙且枝繁,
07:48
black-and-white黑與白 splotchy有污點 and you can
get the pattern-seeking模式求 --
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黑白有汙點,然後你就可以尋找圖樣,
人類是圖樣找尋的動物。
07:51
humans人類 are pattern-seeking模式求 animals動物.
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07:53
Here's這裡的 the Virgin處女 Mary瑪麗 on the side
of a glass玻璃 window窗口 in Sao聖保羅 Paulo聖保羅.
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這是在聖保羅一個玻璃窗邊上的聖母瑪利亞。
而這是聖母瑪利亞顯靈在起司三明治上,
07:57
Here's這裡的 when the Virgin處女 Mary瑪麗 made製作
her appearance出現 on a cheese起司 sandwich三明治 --
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實際上我在拉斯維加斯賭場親手拿過。
08:00
which哪一個 I got to actually其實
hold保持 in a Las拉斯維加斯 Vegas拉斯維加斯 casino賭場 --
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當然因為這裡是美國。
08:03
of course課程, this being存在 America美國.
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(笑聲)
08:04
(Laughter笑聲)
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08:06
This casino賭場 paid支付 $28,500
on eBay易趣 for the cheese起司 sandwich三明治.
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這間賭場在eBay上花了28500美金買下這起司三明治。
08:10
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
08:12
But who does it really look like?
The Virgin處女 Mary瑪麗?
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但是這到底看起來像誰呢?聖母瑪利亞嗎?
(笑聲)
08:15
(Laughter笑聲)
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有那種40年代噘嘴的樣子,
08:17
It has that sort分類 of
puckered lips嘴唇, 1940s-eraS-時代 look.
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聖母瑪利亞在佛羅里達州的清水市。
08:21
Virgin處女 Mary瑪麗 in Clearwater克利爾沃特, Florida佛羅里達.
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08:22
I actually其實 went to see this one.
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我實際去看過這個。
08:24
There was a lot of people there.
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那裡聚集了許多人--虔誠的信徒來到這裡,
08:26
The faithful可信 come in their wheelchairs輪椅
and crutches拐杖, and so on.
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有坐輪椅的、有撐拐的等等,
我們到那裡去做了調查。
08:31
We went down and investigated調查.
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順便讓你知道,我們的人力,那是道金斯、我和令人驚奇的瑞迪。
08:33
Just to give you a size尺寸, that's Dawkins道金斯,
me and The Amazing驚人 Randi蘭迪,
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在兩個兩個半層樓高的影像旁邊,
08:36
next下一個 to this two,
two and a half story-sized故事大小 image圖片.
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所有的蠟燭人們,點燃成千上萬的蠟燭來讚頌這景象。
08:38
All these candles蠟燭, thousands數千 of candles蠟燭
people had lit發光的 in tribute to this.
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所以我們就繞到背後去看看,這到底是怎麼回事。
08:42
So we walked around the backside背面,
to see what was going on.
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結果發現只要有灑水噴頭和棕櫚樹的地方,
08:45
It turns out wherever哪裡 there's
a sprinkler灑水車 head and a palm棕櫚 tree,
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你就會看到這樣的效果。
08:48
you get the effect影響.
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08:49
Here's這裡的 the Virgin處女 Mary瑪麗 on the backside背面,
which哪一個 they started開始 to wipe擦拭 off.
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這就是在後面,他們已經開始在擦拭的聖母瑪利亞。
我想一棟建築物頂多只能有一個奇蹟吧!
08:53
I guess猜測 you can only have
one miracle奇蹟 per building建造.
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08:55
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
這到底是聖母瑪利亞的奇蹟?還是瑪姬的奇蹟?
08:59
So is it really a miracle奇蹟 of Mary瑪麗,
or is it a miracle奇蹟 of Marge瑪吉?
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(笑聲)
09:02
(Laughter笑聲)
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接下來我想要以另一個類似的例子來作為結束,
09:03
And now I'm going to finish up
with another另一個 example of this,
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用聽--聽覺幻象。
09:07
with auditory聽覺 illusions幻想.
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有部電影叫鬼訊號,
09:10
There's this film電影, "White白色 Noise噪聲,"
with Michael邁克爾 Keaton基頓,
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由麥可基頓主演,關於亡者回應我們的話。
09:12
about the dead talking back to us.
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順便說一下,跟亡者說話並沒有什麼了不起,
09:15
By the way, the whole整個 business商業 of talking
to the dead is not that big a deal合同.
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結論是任何人都做得到。
09:19
Anybody任何人 can do it, turns out.
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叫亡者回應我們的話,才是真正難的地方。
09:20
It's getting得到 the dead to talk
back that's the really hard part部分.
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(笑聲)
09:23
(Laughter笑聲)
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這個例子,在電子現象當中藏有一些訊息,
09:24
In this case案件, supposedly按說, these messages消息
are hidden in electronic電子 phenomena現象.
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09:28
There's a ReverseSpeechReverseSpeech.comCOM web捲筒紙 page
where I downloaded下載 this stuff東東.
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我從ReverseSpeech.com的網站上下載了這個,
這是向前轉的,也是最有名的一段。
09:31
This is the most famous著名 one
of all of these.
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這是這首非常有名的歌曲的正常版本。
09:35
Here's這裡的 the forward前鋒 version
of the very famous著名 song歌曲.
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09:37
(Music音樂 with lyrics歌詞)
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09:39
If there's a bustle忙碌 in your hedgerow灌木籬牆
don't be alarmed驚慌 now.
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09:44
It's just a spring彈簧 clean清潔
for the May可能 Queen女王.
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09:50
Yes, there are two paths路徑 you
can go by, but in the long run,
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09:56
There's still time to change更改
the road you're on
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天啊!這音樂可以讓人聽一整天。
10:03
Couldn't不能 you just listen to that all day?
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(笑聲)
好的,接下來是倒轉的版本。
10:06
All right, here it is backwards向後,
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10:07
and see if you can hear the hidden
messages消息 that are supposedly按說 in there.
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看看你是否聽得出裡面應該藏有的訊息。
10:12
(Music音樂 with unintelligible不知所云 lyrics歌詞)
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10:26
(Lyrics歌詞) Satan撒但!
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10:27
(Unintelligible不知所云 lyrics歌詞 continue繼續)
217
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你聽到了什麼?
10:41
What did you get?
Audience聽眾: Satan撒但!
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(聽眾:撒旦)
10:43
Satan撒但. OK, at least最小 we got "Satan撒但".
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麥可‧薛莫:撒旦,好,至少我們聽出了撒旦。
10:45
Now, I'll prime主要 the auditory聽覺
part部分 of your brain
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現在我將先替你頭腦的聽力部分做準備,
10:47
to tell you what you're supposed應該
to hear, and then hear it again.
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告訴你,應該聽見的內容然後再聽一遍。
10:50
(Music音樂 with lyrics歌詞)
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11:17
(Music音樂 ends結束)
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(笑聲)
11:18
(Laughter笑聲)
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(掌聲)
11:19
(Applause掌聲)
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我告訴你那裡有什麼之後,你就不可能會錯過。
11:26
You can't miss小姐 it
when I tell you what's there.
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11:28
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
好,最後我將以一個正面溫馨的小故事做為結束。
11:32
I'm going to just end結束
with a positive, nice不錯 little story故事.
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關於懷疑論者協會是非營利的教育組織。
11:36
The Skeptics懷疑論者 is a nonprofit非營利性
educational教育性 organization組織.
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我們總是在尋找人們所做的小小的好事。
11:39
We're always looking for little
good things that people do.
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在英國有個流行歌手,
11:41
And in England英國, there's a pop流行的 singer歌手.
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是當下英國最頂尖的流行歌手凱特瑪露。
11:43
One of the top最佳 popular流行 singers歌手
in England英國 today今天, Katie凱蒂 Melua瑪露.
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她寫了一首很美的歌。
11:47
And she wrote a beautiful美麗 song歌曲.
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2005年排名前五名歌名,叫做"北京有九百萬輛腳踏車"。
11:49
It was in the top最佳 five in 2005, called,
"Nine Million百萬 Bicycles自行車 in Beijing北京."
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11:54
It's a love story故事 -- she's sort分類
of the Norah諾拉 Jones瓊斯 of the UK聯合王國 --
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描寫一個愛情故事--她就像是英國的諾拉瓊絲。
關於她有多愛她的男人,
11:57
about how she much loves her guy,
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11:59
and compared相比 to nine million百萬
bicycles自行車, and so forth向前.
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與九百萬輛腳踏車做比較等等。
其中有一段歌詞
12:02
And she has this one passage通道 here.
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12:04
(Music音樂)
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♫我們距離宇宙邊緣120億 光年♫
12:05
(Lyrics歌詞) We are 12 billion十億
light-years光年 from the edge邊緣
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♫這是個猜想♫
12:11
That's a guess猜測,
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♫從沒有人能說這是真的♫
12:13
No one can ever say it's true真正,
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♫但我確切知道我會永遠伴著你♫
12:17
But I know that I will always be with you.
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這很動人。
12:22
Michael邁克爾 Shermer舍默: Well, that's nice不錯.
At least最小 she got it close.
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至少她猜得很接近。
在美國,就會變成,"我們距離宇宙邊緣6000光年"。
12:25
In America美國 it'd它會 be,
"We're 6,000 light years年份 from the edge邊緣."
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(笑聲)
12:28
(Laughter笑聲)
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但是,我的朋友賽門辛是粒子物理學家,現在成了科學教育家。
12:29
But my friend朋友, Simon西蒙 Singh辛格, the particle粒子
physicist物理學家 now turned轉身 science科學 educator教育家,
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寫了"大爆炸"這本書以及其他等等。
12:33
who wrote the book
"The Big Bang," and so on,
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他總是抓住每個可以宣導好科學的機會,
12:35
uses使用 every一切 chance機會 he gets得到
to promote促進 good science科學.
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於是,他就在衞報上寫了一篇專欄關於凱特的歌。
12:37
And so he wrote an op-ed專欄 piece
in "The Guardian監護人" about Katie's凱蒂的 song歌曲,
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當中,他指出我們確切知道宇宙邊緣有多老及離我們多遠,
12:41
in which哪一個 he said, well, we know exactly究竟
how far from the edge邊緣.
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就是12--137億光年,不是用猜的。
12:46
You know, it's 13.7 billion十億 light years年份,
and it's not a guess猜測.
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我們知道在精準的誤差槓之內,宇宙邊緣離我們多近。
12:50
We know within precise精確
error錯誤 bars酒吧 how close it is.
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所以,我們可以說,雖然不是絕對正確但已非常接近。
12:54
So we can say, although雖然 not absolutely絕對
true真正, it's pretty漂亮 close to being存在 true真正.
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為了讚揚他,凱特在專欄上報之後打電話給他,
12:58
And, to his credit信用, Katie凱蒂 called him up
after this op-ed專欄 piece came來了 out, and said,
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然後說:"我真是慚愧。
13:02
"I'm so embarrassed尷尬.
I was in the astronomy天文學 club俱樂部.
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我曾經是天文學社團的團員,我應該最清楚不過了。"
13:05
I should've應該 known已知 better."
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所以她就重錄了這一段。
13:06
And she re-cut重斬 the song歌曲.
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而我也將以這新版本結束這演講。
13:07
So I will end結束 with the new version.
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♫我們距離可觀察的宇宙邊緣♫
13:09
(Music音樂 with lyrics歌詞)
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13:11
We are 13.7 billion十億 light years年份
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♫137億光年 ♫
13:13
from the edge邊緣 of the observable可觀察 universe宇宙.
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♫這是在精密誤差槓內產出的可靠估計♫
13:17
That's a good estimate估計
with well-defined明確 error錯誤 bars酒吧.
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♫從佐證的資料中♫
13:20
And with the available可得到 information信息,
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♫我可預測我將會永遠伴著你♫
13:24
I predict預測 that I will always be with you.
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(掌聲)
13:28
(Laughter笑聲)
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很酷吧!
13:29
How cool is that?
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(掌聲)
13:30
(Applause掌聲)
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Translated by Dxm Online大小媒體
Reviewed by Coco Shen

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shermer - Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market.

Why you should listen

As founder and publisher of Skeptic Magazine, Michael Shermer has exposed fallacies behind intelligent design, 9/11 conspiracies, the low-carb craze, alien sightings and other popular beliefs and paranoias. But it's not about debunking for debunking's sake. Shermer defends the notion that we can understand our world better only by matching good theory with good science.

Shermer's work offers cognitive context for our often misguided beliefs: In the absence of sound science, incomplete information can powerfully combine with the power of suggestion (helping us hear Satanic lyrics when "Stairway to Heaven" plays backwards, for example). In fact, a common thread that runs through beliefs of all sorts, he says, is our tendency to convince ourselves: We overvalue the shreds of evidence that support our preferred outcome, and ignore the facts we aren't looking for.

He writes a monthly column for Scientific American, and is an adjunct at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University. His latest book is The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. He is also the author of The Mind of the Market, on evolutionary economics, Why Darwin Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design, and The Science of Good and Evil. And his next book is titled The Moral Arc of Science.

More profile about the speaker
Michael Shermer | Speaker | TED.com