ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shermer - Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market.

Why you should listen

As founder and publisher of Skeptic Magazine, Michael Shermer has exposed fallacies behind intelligent design, 9/11 conspiracies, the low-carb craze, alien sightings and other popular beliefs and paranoias. But it's not about debunking for debunking's sake. Shermer defends the notion that we can understand our world better only by matching good theory with good science.

Shermer's work offers cognitive context for our often misguided beliefs: In the absence of sound science, incomplete information can powerfully combine with the power of suggestion (helping us hear Satanic lyrics when "Stairway to Heaven" plays backwards, for example). In fact, a common thread that runs through beliefs of all sorts, he says, is our tendency to convince ourselves: We overvalue the shreds of evidence that support our preferred outcome, and ignore the facts we aren't looking for.

He writes a monthly column for Scientific American, and is an adjunct at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University. His latest book is The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. He is also the author of The Mind of the Market, on evolutionary economics, Why Darwin Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design, and The Science of Good and Evil. And his next book is titled The Moral Arc of Science.

More profile about the speaker
Michael Shermer | Speaker | TED.com
TED2006

Michael Shermer: Why people believe weird things

Michael Shermer 谈奇异的信念

Filmed:
7,339,268 views

为什么人们会看到圣母玛利亚在三明治上,或是会听到"天堂之梯"那有魔力的歌词呢?利用影片跟音乐,怀疑论者协会理事长 Michael Shermer 告诉我们要如何说服自己去相信、细看事实。
- Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:24
I'm Michael迈克尔 Shermer舍默,
director导向器 of the Skeptics怀疑论者 Society社会,
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嗨!我是 Michael Shermer 怀疑论者协会理事长
怀疑论者杂志的发行人。
00:27
publisher出版者 of "Skeptic怀疑论者" magazine杂志.
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我们调查声称超自然伪科学的现象,
00:28
We investigate调查 claims索赔 of the paranormal超自然,
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边缘科学、邪教和种种主张 -
00:30
pseudo-science伪科学, fringe边缘 groups and cults邪教,
and claims索赔 of all kinds between之间,
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00:34
science科学 and pseudo-science伪科学
and non-science非科学 and junk破烂 science科学,
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科学和伪科学和非科学和垃圾科学,
巫毒科学、病态科学、坏科学、非科学,
00:37
voodoo巫毒教 science科学, pathological病态的 science科学,
bad science科学, non-science非科学,
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00:40
and plain old non-sense废话.
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以及无稽之谈。
00:42
And unless除非 you've been on Mars火星 recently最近,
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除非你最近去过火星,
00:44
you know there's a lot of that out there.
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你知道世上有许多这些东西,
00:46
Some people call us debunkers揭穿真面目,
which哪一个 is kind of a negative term术语.
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所以,人人称我们为拆穿者 虽然这称呼有点负面。
00:49
But let's face面对 it, there's a lot of bunk假寐.
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但是,承认吧!确实有太多胡说八道了。
我们就像是警察局的诈骗小组进行扫除工作,
00:51
We are like the bunko文库 squads敢死队
of the police警察 departments部门 out there --
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00:55
well, we're sort分类 of like
the Ralph拉尔夫 NadersNaders of bad ideas思路,
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我们就像是侦办坏主意的拉尔夫纳德检察官。
00:58
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
尝试将坏主意换成好的。
01:00
trying to replace更换 bad ideas思路
with good ideas思路.
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01:02
I'll show显示 you an example of a bad idea理念.
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让我给你们看看坏主意长什么样子
01:04
I brought this with me,
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我带来了这个
01:05
this was given特定 to us
by NBCNBC Dateline日界线 to test测试.
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NBC晨间节目把这个给我们做测试
01:09
It's produced生成 by the Quadro的Quadro
Corporation公司 of West西 Virginia弗吉尼亚州.
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由西弗吉尼亚州的Quadro公司制造
称为Quadro2000探测棒。
01:13
It's called the Quadro的Quadro 2000 Dowser挡光板 Rod竿.
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(笑声)
01:16
(Laughter笑声)
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01:17
This was being存在 sold出售 to high-school中学
administrators管理员 for $900 apiece一块.
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卖给高中职员 一个900块美金
01:22
It's a piece of plastic塑料 with a Radio无线电
Shack窝棚 antenna天线 attached to it.
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由一片塑料连接RadioShack牌天线所组成。
你可以用它探测任何东西 但是这一款,是特别为
01:27
You could dowse道斯 for all sorts排序 of things,
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01:29
but this particular特定 one was built内置
to dowse道斯 for marijuana大麻
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探测学生置物柜里的大麻所设计的。
01:32
in students'学生们' lockers储物柜.
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01:33
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
使用方法是你走进走廊一路侦测,看天线是否
01:36
So the way it works作品
is you go down the hallway门厅,
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01:39
and you see if it tilts倾斜
toward a particular特定 locker更衣室,
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会指向某个置物柜,然后,你就可以打开来检查。
01:42
and then you open打开 the locker更衣室.
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所以,看起来就像这样。
01:44
So it looks容貌 something like this.
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我秀给你们看。
01:45
I'll show显示 you.
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01:48
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
01:49
Well, it has kind of a right-leaning偏右翼 bias偏压.
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不,噢!它似乎会偏右边。
所以,嗯!这是科学,所以我们来做个核对实验。
01:53
Well, this is science科学,
so we'll do a controlled受控 experiment实验.
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从这边走应该就会朝向这边了。
01:56
It'll它会 go this way for sure.
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(笑声)
01:57
(Laughter笑声)
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02:01
Sir先生, do you want to empty
your pockets口袋, please, sir先生?
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先生,可以请您掏出您的口袋吗?先生。
(笑声)
02:04
(Laughter笑声)
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所以,问题是,这真的能找出学生置物柜里藏的大麻吗?
02:06
So the question was, can it actually其实
find marijuana大麻 in students'学生们' lockers储物柜?
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答案是,如果你开得够多,就找得出来。
02:09
And the answer回答 is,
if you open打开 enough足够 of them, yes.
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(笑声)
02:12
(Laughter笑声)
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(掌声)
02:13
(Applause掌声)
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02:14
But in science科学, we have to keep track跟踪
of the misses错过, not just the hits点击.
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但是,在科学上我们必须记录那些不准的,不能只记准的。
这也许就是我这简短演讲的重点,那就是
02:18
And that's probably大概 the key lesson
to my short talk here:
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02:21
This is how psychics心理学 work, astrologers占星家,
tarot塔罗牌 card readers读者 and so on.
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这就是通灵者占星家、塔罗牌师等等的运作原理。
人们会记住准的,忘记不准的。
02:25
People remember记得 the hits点击
and forget忘记 the misses错过.
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在科学上,我们必须保存完整的数据。
02:27
In science科学, we keep the whole整个 database数据库,
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检视准确的数据是否会明显地
02:29
and look to see if the number
of hits点击 somehow不知何故 stands站立 out
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从全部可预测的机率数字当中突显出来。
02:32
from the total number
you'd expect期望 by chance机会.
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在这个例子中,我们测试了这仪器。
02:34
In this case案件, we tested测试 it.
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02:35
We had two opaque不透明 boxes盒子:
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我们准备两个不透光的箱子,
02:37
one with government-approved政府批准 THCTHC
marijuana大麻, and one with nothing.
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一个藏有政府认证含有四氢大麻酚的大麻,另一个是空的,
准确度是一半一半,
02:40
And it got it 50 percent百分 of the time --
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02:42
(Laughter笑声)
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跟你可预测的丢铜板的机率法则完全一样。
02:43
which哪一个 is exactly究竟 what you'd expect期望
with a coin-flip硬币翻转 model模型.
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02:46
So that's just a fun开玩笑 little example
here of the sorts排序 of things we do.
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所以,这只是个有趣的小例子告诉你我们,工作的性质。
怀疑论者杂志是个季刊,
02:50
"Skeptic怀疑论者" is the quarterly季刊 publication出版物.
Each one has a particular特定 theme主题.
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每季都有个主题,例如这一个是关于未来智慧的,
02:54
This one is on the future未来 of intelligence情报.
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人是愈来愈聪明?还是愈来愈笨?
02:56
Are people getting得到 smarter聪明 or dumber?
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因为工作的关系,我自己对这有个人的见解。
02:58
I have an opinion意见 of this myself
because of the business商业 I'm in,
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但事实上,结果显示,人是愈来愈聪明的。
03:01
but in fact事实, people, it turns out,
are getting得到 smarter聪明.
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每十年提升3个IQ数值。
03:03
Three IQ智商 points per 10 years年份, going up.
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03:06
Sort分类 of an interesting有趣 thing.
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这点蛮有趣的。
03:08
With science科学, don't think of skepticism怀疑论
as a thing, or science科学 as a thing.
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讲科学不能把怀疑论或甚至是科学当作一样东西。
像是在问科学和宗教可并立吗?
03:12
Are science科学 and religion宗教 compatible兼容?
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03:13
It's like, are science科学
and plumbing水暖 compatible兼容?
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像是在问科学与水电并立吗?
这些它们其实就是两种不同的东西。
03:16
They're just two different不同 things.
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03:17
Science科学 is not a thing. It's a verb动词.
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科学不是东西,而是动词,
03:19
It's a way of thinking思维 about things.
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是思考事物的方式。
03:21
It's a way of looking for natural自然
explanations说明 for all phenomena现象.
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是为所有现象寻找自然的解释的方法。
我的意思是,
03:24
I mean, what's more likely容易:
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03:25
that extraterrestrial外星人 intelligences智能
or multi-dimensional多维 beings众生
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外星生物和多重次元的生灵横跨
03:29
travel旅行 across横过 vast广大 distances距离
of interstellar星际 space空间
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星际空间浩瀚的距离,留下麦田圈,
03:31
to leave离开 a crop作物 circle in Farmer农民 Bob's鲍勃的
field领域 in PuckerbrushPuckerbrush, Kansas堪萨斯
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在堪萨斯州帕克布莱西的鲍伯农场上,宣传我们的网站skeptic.com的可能性较大,
03:34
to promote促进 skeptic怀疑论者.comCOM, our web卷筒纸 page?
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还是某怀疑论者杂志的读者利用Photoshop制作出来的可能性大呢?
03:36
Or is it more likely容易 that a reader读者
of "Skeptic怀疑论者" did this with PhotoshopPhotoshop中?
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在所有这些案例里头,我们都必须问,
03:41
And in all cases we have to ask --
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(笑声)
03:42
(Laughter笑声)
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03:44
What's the more likely容易 explanation说明?
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最有可能的解释是什么?
03:46
Before we say something
is out of this world世界,
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在我们说有些东西来自外世界之前,
我们首先应该查明它并不存在于这个世界。
03:48
we should first make sure
that it's not in this world世界.
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哪个可能性较高,
03:51
What's more likely容易:
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阿诺德·施瓦辛格有外星人帮忙竞选州长呢?
03:52
that Arnold阿诺德 had extraterrestrial外星人 help
in his run for the governorship州长,
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或是世界新闻周刊捏造的呢?
03:56
or that the "World世界 Weekly每周 News新闻"
makes品牌 stuff东东 up?
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03:58
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
其中同样的主题,却在辛尼海罗斯的卡通中,
04:00
The same相同 theme主题 is expressed表达 nicely很好
here in this Sidney西德尼 Harris哈里斯 cartoon动画片.
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被诠释得很不错。
04:04
For those of you in the back,
it says here: "Then a miracle奇迹 occurs发生.
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给坐在后排的观众,这上面说,"然后奇迹发生,
04:08
I think you need to be more
explicit明确的 here in step two."
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我觉得你应该把第二步骤说得更详细一点。"
04:10
This single slide滑动 completely全然 dismantles擅自拆除
the intelligent智能 design设计 arguments参数.
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这一张投影片完全拆散了智能设计论证。
再清楚也不过了。
04:15
There's nothing more to it than that.
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(掌声)
04:17
(Applause掌声)
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你可以说奇迹发生。
04:18
You can say a miracle奇迹 occurs发生,
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04:19
it's just that it doesn't explain说明
anything or offer提供 anything.
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只是这不能解释任何事情。
不能提供什么。没有东西可以测试。
04:22
There's nothing to test测试.
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这是智慧设计创意工作者的谈话终点。
04:23
It's the end结束 of the conversation会话
for intelligent智能 design设计 creationists神创论.
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反之,确实科学家有时会丢出一些名词当作
04:27
And it's true真正, scientists科学家们 sometimes有时 throw
terms条款 out as linguistic语言 place地点 fillers填料 --
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语言学的填空词--暗能量或暗物质或其它类似的等等。
04:32
dark黑暗 energy能源 or dark黑暗 matter,
something like that --
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直到我们明白这是什么之前,我们就暂时称它为这个,
04:34
until直到 we figure数字 out what it is,
we'll call it this.
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对科学而言这是因果连结链的开始。
04:37
It's the beginning开始 of the causal因果
chain for science科学.
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对智慧设计创意工作者而言,则是因果连结链的末端。
04:39
For intelligent智能 design设计 creationists神创论,
it's the end结束 of the chain.
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我们可以再次询问,哪个可能性较高,
04:43
So again, we can ask this:
what's more likely容易?
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幽浮比较可能是外星人的宇宙飞船或是感官认知的错误或甚至是假的。
04:46
Are UFOs不明飞行物 alien外侨 spaceships飞船, or perceptual知觉的
cognitive认知 mistakes错误, or even fakes假货?
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04:50
This is a UFO飞碟 shot射击 from my house
in Altadena阿尔塔迪纳, California加州,
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这是我从加州犹它旦市家中拍到的幽浮照片,
04:53
looking down over Pasadena帕萨迪纳.
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向下俯瞰帕萨迪纳市。
04:55
And if it looks容貌 a lot like a Buick别克
hubcap轮毂罩, it's because it is.
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如果这看起来像别克汽车的轮盖,那是因为它根本就是。
04:59
You don't even need PhotoshopPhotoshop中
or high-tech高科技 equipment设备,
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你甚至不需要Photoshop,不需要高科技器材,
你不需要计算机,
05:02
you don't need computers电脑.
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05:03
This was shot射击 with a throwaway丢掉
Kodak柯达 InstamaticINSTAMATIC camera相机.
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这是用柯达Instamatic抛弃型相机拍的。
05:06
You just have somebody off on the side
with a hubcap轮毂罩 ready准备 to go.
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你只需要有人在旁边准备掷出轮盖就可以了。
相机准备好--就这么简单。
05:09
Camera's相机的 ready准备 -- that's it.
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(笑声)
05:11
(Laughter笑声)
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虽然,大部份这些东西都有可能是假的,
05:13
So, although虽然 it's possible可能
that most of these things are fake
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05:16
or illusions幻想 or so on,
and that some of them are real真实,
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或是幻象等等,但有些是真的。
更有可能全部都是假的,就像麦田圈一样。
05:20
it's more likely容易 that all of them
are fake, like the crop作物 circles.
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说正经的,在所有科学里,我们都在寻找一种平衡,
05:23
On a more serious严重 note注意, in all of science科学
we're looking for a balance平衡
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介于数据与理论之间。
05:27
between之间 data数据 and theory理论.
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05:28
In the case案件 of Galileo伽利略,
he had two problems问题
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以伽利略来说,他有两个困难,
05:32
when he turned转身 his telescope望远镜 to Saturn土星.
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当他用望远镜观察土星时,
首先,那时没有行星环的理论,
05:35
First of all, there was no
theory理论 of planetary行星 rings戒指.
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第二,他的数据是粗糙模糊的,
05:38
Second第二 of all, his data数据
was grainy颗粒感 and fuzzy模糊,
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而且,他并不太了解自己正在看的是什么,
05:40
and he couldn't不能 quite相当 make out
what he was looking at.
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所以他就写下他看到了。
05:43
So he wrote that he had seen看到 --
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05:44
"I have observed观察到的 that the furthest最远
planet行星 has three bodies身体."
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"我观察到最远的星球有三个形体"。
而这是他最后对自己的观察所做的结论。
05:48
And this is what he ended结束 up
concluding结论 that he saw.
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没有行星环的理论且凭靠粗糙的资料,
05:51
So without a theory理论 of planetary行星
rings戒指 and with only grainy颗粒感 data数据,
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05:54
you can't have a good theory理论.
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你不可能建构很好的理论。
05:56
It wasn't solved解决了 until直到 1655.
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一直到1655年才得到解答,
05:58
This is Christiaan克里斯蒂安 Huygens's惠更斯 book
that catalogs目录 all the mistakes错误
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惠更斯的书中记载了所有人在尝试了解,
06:01
people made制作 trying to figure数字 out
what was going on with Saturn土星.
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土星时所犯的错误。
但是一直到惠更斯有了两样东西,
06:04
It wasn't till直到 Huygens惠更斯 had two things:
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好的行星环理论和了解太阳系如何运转。
06:06
He had a good theory理论 of planetary行星 rings戒指
and how the solar太阳能 system系统 operated操作,
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06:10
and he had better telescopic伸缩式,
more fine-grain细粒度 data数据
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而且,当时他有更好的望远镜及更细微的数据,
06:13
in which哪一个 he could figure数字 out that
as the Earth地球 is going around faster更快 --
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从中他了解到当地球转得比土星更快速,
根据克卜勒三大定律,然后我们会追上它。
06:17
according根据 to Kepler's开普勒 Laws法律 --
than Saturn土星, then we catch抓住 up with it.
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我们从不同的角度,看见行星环不同的角度。
06:20
And we see the angles of the rings戒指
at different不同 angles, there.
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06:23
And that, in fact事实, turns out to be true真正.
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而事实上,结果真是如此。
有理论的问题是,
06:26
The problem问题 with having a theory理论 is that
it may可能 be loaded with cognitive认知 biases偏见.
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你的理论可能会充满认知偏见。
所以,要解释人为何会相信奇异现象的困难之一,
06:31
So one of the problems问题 of explaining说明
why people believe weird奇怪的 things
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就是我们会简化事物。
06:34
is that we have things, on a simple简单 level水平,
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然后,我之后会再说比较多的例子。
06:36
and then I'll go to more serious严重 ones那些.
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例如,我们会倾向看见脸孔,
06:38
Like, we have a tendency趋势 to see faces面孔.
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这些是在火星上的脸,
06:40
This is the face面对 on Mars火星.
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1976年有很多运动要求美国太空总署
06:42
In 1976, where there was a whole整个 movement运动
to get NASANASA to photograph照片 that area
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为这些地区拍摄照片,因为人们认为
06:46
because people thought this was monumental纪念
architecture建筑 made制作 by Martians火星.
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这些是火星人盖的纪念建筑。
后来发现这是2001年所拍摄的近照。
06:50
Here's这里的 the close-up特写 of it from 2001.
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06:53
If you squint, you can still see the face面对.
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如果你斜视仍可以看见脸,
当你斜视时,你就是在
06:56
And when you're squinting眯眼,
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06:57
you're turning车削 that from fine-grain细粒度
to coarse-grain粗粒,
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将影像从微粒变成粗粒的。
也就是说你在降低数据的质量。
07:00
so you're reducing减少
the quality质量 of your data数据.
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如果我不告诉你,该看什么,你还是会看见脸孔,
07:02
And if I didn't tell you what to look for,
you'd still see the face面对,
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因为进化将我们设计成,会看见脸孔的生物。
07:05
because we're programmed程序
by evolution演化 to see faces面孔.
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在社交上,脸孔对我们很重要,
07:08
Faces are important重要 for us socially社交上.
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当然还有笑脸,
07:10
And of course课程, happy快乐 faces面孔,
faces面孔 of all kinds are easy简单 to see.
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各种脸孔都很容易被看见。
(笑声)
07:14
You see the happy快乐 face面对 on Mars火星, there.
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你可以看见火星上的笑脸在上面。
07:16
(Laughter笑声)
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如果天文学家是青蛙的话,那么他们可能就会看见芝麻街的青蛙柯密特。
07:17
If astronomers天文学家 were frogs青蛙,
perhaps也许 they'd他们会 see Kermit克米特 the Frog青蛙.
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看见了吗?
07:20
Do you see him there? Little froggy小青蛙 legs.
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小小的青蛙脚。
07:22
Or if geologists地质学家 were elephants大象?
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或是如果考古学家是大象呢?
07:25
Religious宗教 iconography肖像.
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宗教肖像。
07:28
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
1996年由田纳西的一位面包师傅所发现,
07:31
Discovered发现 by a Tennessee田纳西 baker面包师傅 in 1996.
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07:33
He charged带电 five bucks雄鹿 a head
to come see the nun尼姑 bun包子
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他收一个人头五块钱来让人看这块修女面包,
直到他收到特瑞莎修女的律师寄来的禁止通知函为止。
07:36
till直到 he got a cease-and-desist停止和终止
from Mother母亲 Teresa's德肋撒 lawyer律师.
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这是在下一条街的瓜达露佩圣母和华森维尔圣母。
07:40
Here's这里的 Our Lady淑女 of Guadalupe瓜达卢佩 and Our
Lady淑女 of Watsonville沃森维尔, just down the street,
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07:43
or is it up the street from here?
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或是从这里过去的上一条街?
07:45
Tree bark is particularly尤其 good
because it's nice不错 and grainy颗粒感, branchy,
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树皮的效果特别好,因为粗糙且枝繁,
07:48
black-and-white黑与白 splotchy有污点 and you can
get the pattern-seeking模式求 --
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黑白有污点,然后你就可以寻找图样,
人类是图样找寻的动物。
07:51
humans人类 are pattern-seeking模式求 animals动物.
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07:53
Here's这里的 the Virgin处女 Mary玛丽 on the side
of a glass玻璃 window窗口 in Sao圣保罗 Paulo圣保罗.
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这是在圣保罗一个玻璃窗边上的圣母玛利亚。
而这是圣母玛利亚显灵在起司三明治上,
07:57
Here's这里的 when the Virgin处女 Mary玛丽 made制作
her appearance出现 on a cheese起司 sandwich三明治 --
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实际上我在拉斯韦加斯赌场亲手拿过。
08:00
which哪一个 I got to actually其实
hold保持 in a Las拉斯维加斯 Vegas拉斯维加斯 casino赌场 --
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当然因为这里是美国。
08:03
of course课程, this being存在 America美国.
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(笑声)
08:04
(Laughter笑声)
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08:06
This casino赌场 paid支付 $28,500
on eBay易趣 for the cheese起司 sandwich三明治.
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这间赌场在eBay上花了28500美金买下这起司三明治。
08:10
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
08:12
But who does it really look like?
The Virgin处女 Mary玛丽?
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但是这到底看起来像谁呢?圣母玛利亚吗?
(笑声)
08:15
(Laughter笑声)
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有那种40年代噘嘴的样子,
08:17
It has that sort分类 of
puckered lips嘴唇, 1940s-eraS-时代 look.
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圣母玛利亚在佛罗里达州的清水市。
08:21
Virgin处女 Mary玛丽 in Clearwater克利尔沃特, Florida佛罗里达.
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08:22
I actually其实 went to see this one.
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我实际去看过这个。
08:24
There was a lot of people there.
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那里聚集了许多人--虔诚的信徒来到这里,
08:26
The faithful可信 come in their wheelchairs轮椅
and crutches拐杖, and so on.
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有坐轮椅的、有撑拐的等等,
我们到那里去做了调查。
08:31
We went down and investigated调查.
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顺便让你知道,我们的人力,那是道金斯、我和令人惊奇的瑞迪。
08:33
Just to give you a size尺寸, that's Dawkins道金斯,
me and The Amazing惊人 Randi兰迪,
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在两个两个半层楼高的影像旁边,
08:36
next下一个 to this two,
two and a half story-sized故事大小 image图片.
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所有的蜡烛人们,点燃成千上万的蜡烛来赞颂这景象。
08:38
All these candles蜡烛, thousands数千 of candles蜡烛
people had lit发光的 in tribute to this.
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所以我们就绕到背后去看看,这到底是怎么回事。
08:42
So we walked around the backside背面,
to see what was going on.
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结果发现只要有洒水喷头和棕榈树的地方,
08:45
It turns out wherever哪里 there's
a sprinkler洒水车 head and a palm棕榈 tree,
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你就会看到这样的效果。
08:48
you get the effect影响.
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08:49
Here's这里的 the Virgin处女 Mary玛丽 on the backside背面,
which哪一个 they started开始 to wipe擦拭 off.
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这就是在后面,他们已经开始在擦拭的圣母玛利亚。
我想一栋建筑物顶多只能有一个奇迹吧!
08:53
I guess猜测 you can only have
one miracle奇迹 per building建造.
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08:55
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
这到底是圣母玛利亚的奇迹?还是玛吉的奇迹?
08:59
So is it really a miracle奇迹 of Mary玛丽,
or is it a miracle奇迹 of Marge玛吉?
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(笑声)
09:02
(Laughter笑声)
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接下来我想要以另一个类似的例子来作为结束,
09:03
And now I'm going to finish up
with another另一个 example of this,
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用听--听觉幻象。
09:07
with auditory听觉 illusions幻想.
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有部电影叫鬼讯号,
09:10
There's this film电影, "White白色 Noise噪声,"
with Michael迈克尔 Keaton基顿,
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由麦可基顿主演,关于亡者回应我们的话。
09:12
about the dead talking back to us.
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顺便说一下,跟亡者说话并没有什么了不起,
09:15
By the way, the whole整个 business商业 of talking
to the dead is not that big a deal合同.
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结论是任何人都做得到。
09:19
Anybody任何人 can do it, turns out.
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叫亡者响应我们的话,才是真正难的地方。
09:20
It's getting得到 the dead to talk
back that's the really hard part部分.
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(笑声)
09:23
(Laughter笑声)
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这个例子,在电子现象当中藏有一些讯息,
09:24
In this case案件, supposedly按说, these messages消息
are hidden in electronic电子 phenomena现象.
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09:28
There's a ReverseSpeechReverseSpeech.comCOM web卷筒纸 page
where I downloaded下载 this stuff东东.
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我从ReverseSpeech.com的网站上下载了这个,
这是向前转的,也是最有名的一段。
09:31
This is the most famous著名 one
of all of these.
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这是这首非常有名的歌曲的正常版本。
09:35
Here's这里的 the forward前锋 version
of the very famous著名 song歌曲.
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09:37
(Music音乐 with lyrics歌词)
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09:39
If there's a bustle忙碌 in your hedgerow灌木篱墙
don't be alarmed惊慌 now.
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09:44
It's just a spring弹簧 clean清洁
for the May可能 Queen女王.
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09:50
Yes, there are two paths路径 you
can go by, but in the long run,
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09:56
There's still time to change更改
the road you're on
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天啊!这音乐可以让人听一整天。
10:03
Couldn't不能 you just listen to that all day?
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(笑声)
好的,接下来是倒转的版本。
10:06
All right, here it is backwards向后,
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10:07
and see if you can hear the hidden
messages消息 that are supposedly按说 in there.
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看看你是否听得出里面应该藏有的讯息。
10:12
(Music音乐 with unintelligible不知所云 lyrics歌词)
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10:26
(Lyrics歌词) Satan撒但!
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10:27
(Unintelligible不知所云 lyrics歌词 continue继续)
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你听到了什么?
10:41
What did you get?
Audience听众: Satan撒但!
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(听众:撒旦)
10:43
Satan撒但. OK, at least最小 we got "Satan撒但".
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麦可‧薛莫:撒旦,好,至少我们听出了撒旦。
10:45
Now, I'll prime主要 the auditory听觉
part部分 of your brain
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现在我将先替你头脑的听力部分做准备,
10:47
to tell you what you're supposed应该
to hear, and then hear it again.
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告诉你,应该听见的内容然后再听一遍。
10:50
(Music音乐 with lyrics歌词)
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11:17
(Music音乐 ends结束)
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(笑声)
11:18
(Laughter笑声)
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(掌声)
11:19
(Applause掌声)
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我告诉你那里有什么之后,你就不可能会错过。
11:26
You can't miss小姐 it
when I tell you what's there.
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11:28
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
好,最后我将以一个正面温馨的小故事做为结束。
11:32
I'm going to just end结束
with a positive, nice不错 little story故事.
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关于怀疑论者协会是非营利的教育组织。
11:36
The Skeptics怀疑论者 is a nonprofit非营利性
educational教育性 organization组织.
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我们总是在寻找人们所做的小小的好事。
11:39
We're always looking for little
good things that people do.
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在英国有个流行歌手,
11:41
And in England英国, there's a pop流行的 singer歌手.
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2009
是当下英国最顶尖的流行歌手凯特玛露。
11:43
One of the top最佳 popular流行 singers歌手
in England英国 today今天, Katie凯蒂 Melua玛露.
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她写了一首很美的歌。
11:47
And she wrote a beautiful美丽 song歌曲.
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2005年排名前五名歌名,叫做"北京有九百万辆脚踏车"。
11:49
It was in the top最佳 five in 2005, called,
"Nine Million百万 Bicycles自行车 in Beijing北京."
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11:54
It's a love story故事 -- she's sort分类
of the Norah诺拉 Jones琼斯 of the UK联合王国 --
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描写一个爱情故事--她就像是英国的诺拉琼丝。
关于她有多爱她的男人,
11:57
about how she much loves her guy,
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11:59
and compared相比 to nine million百万
bicycles自行车, and so forth向前.
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与九百万辆脚踏车做比较等等。
其中有一段歌词
12:02
And she has this one passage通道 here.
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12:04
(Music音乐)
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♫我们距离宇宙边缘120亿 光年♫
12:05
(Lyrics歌词) We are 12 billion十亿
light-years光年 from the edge边缘
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♫这是个猜想♫
12:11
That's a guess猜测,
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♫从没有人能说这是真的♫
12:13
No one can ever say it's true真正,
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♫但我确切知道我会永远伴着你♫
12:17
But I know that I will always be with you.
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这很动人。
12:22
Michael迈克尔 Shermer舍默: Well, that's nice不错.
At least最小 she got it close.
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至少她猜得很接近。
在美国,就会变成,"我们距离宇宙边缘6000光年"。
12:25
In America美国 it'd它会 be,
"We're 6,000 light years年份 from the edge边缘."
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(笑声)
12:28
(Laughter笑声)
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但是,我的朋友赛门辛是粒子物理学家,现在成了科学教育家。
12:29
But my friend朋友, Simon西蒙 Singh辛格, the particle粒子
physicist物理学家 now turned转身 science科学 educator教育家,
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写了"大爆炸"这本书以及其它等等。
12:33
who wrote the book
"The Big Bang," and so on,
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他总是抓住每个可以倡导好科学的机会,
12:35
uses使用 every一切 chance机会 he gets得到
to promote促进 good science科学.
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于是,他就在卫报上写了一篇专栏关于凯特的歌。
12:37
And so he wrote an op-ed专栏 piece
in "The Guardian监护人" about Katie's凯蒂的 song歌曲,
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当中,他指出我们确切知道宇宙边缘有多老及离我们多远,
12:41
in which哪一个 he said, well, we know exactly究竟
how far from the edge边缘.
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就是12--137亿光年,不是用猜的。
12:46
You know, it's 13.7 billion十亿 light years年份,
and it's not a guess猜测.
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我们知道在精准的误差杠之内,宇宙边缘离我们多近。
12:50
We know within precise精确
error错误 bars酒吧 how close it is.
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所以,我们可以说,虽然不是绝对正确但已非常接近。
12:54
So we can say, although虽然 not absolutely绝对
true真正, it's pretty漂亮 close to being存在 true真正.
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为了赞扬他,凯特在专栏上报之后打电话给他,
12:58
And, to his credit信用, Katie凯蒂 called him up
after this op-ed专栏 piece came来了 out, and said,
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然后说:"我真是惭愧。
13:02
"I'm so embarrassed尴尬.
I was in the astronomy天文学 club俱乐部.
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我曾经是天文学社团的团员,我应该最清楚不过了。"
13:05
I should've应该 known已知 better."
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所以她就重录了这一段。
13:06
And she re-cut重斩 the song歌曲.
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而我也将以这新版本结束这演讲。
13:07
So I will end结束 with the new version.
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♫我们距离可观察的宇宙边缘♫
13:09
(Music音乐 with lyrics歌词)
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13:11
We are 13.7 billion十亿 light years年份
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♫137亿光年 ♫
13:13
from the edge边缘 of the observable可观察 universe宇宙.
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♫这是在精密误差杠内产出的可靠估计♫
13:17
That's a good estimate估计
with well-defined明确 error错误 bars酒吧.
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♫从左证的资料中♫
13:20
And with the available可得到 information信息,
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♫我可预测我将会永远伴着你♫
13:24
I predict预测 that I will always be with you.
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(掌声)
13:28
(Laughter笑声)
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很酷吧!
13:29
How cool is that?
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(掌声)
13:30
(Applause掌声)
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Translated by Coco Shen
Reviewed by Geoff Chen

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Shermer - Skeptic
Michael Shermer debunks myths, superstitions and urban legends -- and explains why we believe them. Along with publishing Skeptic Magazine, he's author of Why People Believe Weird Things and The Mind of the Market.

Why you should listen

As founder and publisher of Skeptic Magazine, Michael Shermer has exposed fallacies behind intelligent design, 9/11 conspiracies, the low-carb craze, alien sightings and other popular beliefs and paranoias. But it's not about debunking for debunking's sake. Shermer defends the notion that we can understand our world better only by matching good theory with good science.

Shermer's work offers cognitive context for our often misguided beliefs: In the absence of sound science, incomplete information can powerfully combine with the power of suggestion (helping us hear Satanic lyrics when "Stairway to Heaven" plays backwards, for example). In fact, a common thread that runs through beliefs of all sorts, he says, is our tendency to convince ourselves: We overvalue the shreds of evidence that support our preferred outcome, and ignore the facts we aren't looking for.

He writes a monthly column for Scientific American, and is an adjunct at Claremont Graduate University and Chapman University. His latest book is The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. He is also the author of The Mind of the Market, on evolutionary economics, Why Darwin Matters: Evolution and the Case Against Intelligent Design, and The Science of Good and Evil. And his next book is titled The Moral Arc of Science.

More profile about the speaker
Michael Shermer | Speaker | TED.com