TEDGlobal 2012
Pankaj Ghemawat: Actually, the world isn't flat
Pankaž Gemavat (Pankaj Ghemawat): Svet, u stvari, nije ravan
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949,341 views
Možda vam se čini da živimo u bezgraničnom svetu u kom se ideje, dobra i ljudi slobodno kreću od jedne nacije do druge. Nismo ni blizu tome, kaže Pankaž Gemavat. Značajnim podacima (i anketom koja će vam otvoriti oči), on argumentuje postojanje razlike između opažanja i stvarnosti u svetu koji možda ipak nije toliko hiperpovezan.
Pankaj Ghemawat - Globalization researcher
Our world is not flat, says ecnomist Pankaj Ghemawat -- it's at best semi-globalized, with limited interactions between countries and economies. Full bio
Our world is not flat, says ecnomist Pankaj Ghemawat -- it's at best semi-globalized, with limited interactions between countries and economies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm here to talk to you about how globalized we are,
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Ovde sam da pričam o tome
koliko smo globalizovani,
koliko smo globalizovani,
00:20
how globalized we aren't,
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koliko nismo globalizovani
00:23
and why it's important to actually be accurate
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i zašto je važno biti precizan
00:26
in making those kinds of assessments.
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pri pravljenju ovakvih procena.
00:29
And the leading point of view on this, whether measured
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Glavni način sagledavanja ovoga,
bilo da se meri
bilo da se meri
00:33
by number of books sold, mentions in media,
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brojem prodatih knjiga,
pominjanja u medijima
pominjanja u medijima
00:37
or surveys that I've run with groups ranging from
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ili anketama koje sam organizovao
sa grupama
sa grupama
00:40
my students to delegates to the World Trade Organization,
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studenata do grupa delegata
u Svetskoj trgovinskoj organizaciji,
u Svetskoj trgovinskoj organizaciji,
00:44
is this view that national borders
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je mišljenje da državne granice
00:48
really don't matter very much anymore,
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više nisu previše važne,
00:51
cross-border integration is close to complete,
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prekogranična integracija je skoro potpuna
00:55
and we live in one world.
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i živimo u povezanom svetu.
00:57
And what's interesting about this view
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Ono što je zanimljivo
u vezi sa ovim
u vezi sa ovim
01:00
is, again, it's a view that's held by pro-globalizers
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je mišljenje pobornika globalizacije
01:03
like Tom Friedman, from whose book this quote is obviously excerpted,
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poput Toma Fridmana,
iz čije knjige je ovaj citat,
iz čije knjige je ovaj citat,
01:08
but it's also held by anti-globalizers, who see this giant
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ali to je i mišljenje protivnika globalizacije,
onih koji vide ovaj džinovski
onih koji vide ovaj džinovski
01:12
globalization tsunami that's about to wreck all our lives
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cunami globalizacije
koji će nam uništiti živote,
koji će nam uništiti živote,
01:17
if it hasn't already done so.
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ako to već nije uradio.
01:20
The other thing I would add is that this is not a new view.
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Želeo bih da dodam
da ovo nije nova misao.
da ovo nije nova misao.
01:24
I'm a little bit of an amateur historian, so I've spent
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Pomalo sam i istoričar amater,
zato sam proveo
zato sam proveo
01:28
some time going back, trying to see the first mention
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neko vreme gledajući unazad, pokušavajući
01:31
of this kind of thing. And the best, earliest quote
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da nađem prvo spominjanje ovoga.
Najbolji, najraniji citat
Najbolji, najraniji citat
01:35
that I could find was one from David Livingstone,
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koji sam našao je citat Dejvida Livingstona,
01:39
writing in the 1850s about how the railroad, the steam ship,
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napisan 1850-ih o tome
kako su železnica, parobrod
kako su železnica, parobrod
01:45
and the telegraph were integrating East Africa perfectly
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i telegraf savršeno integrisali istočnu Afriku
01:50
with the rest of the world.
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sa ostatkom sveta.
01:53
Now clearly, David Livingstone
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Očigledno, Dejvid Livingston
01:55
was a little bit ahead of his time,
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je bio ispred svog vremena,
01:58
but it does seem useful to ask ourselves,
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ali zvuči korisno zapitati se:
02:02
"Just how global are we?"
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,,Koliko smo stvarno globalizovani?",
02:04
before we think about where we go from here.
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pre nego što pomislimo
kuda ćemo odavde.
kuda ćemo odavde.
02:06
So the best way I've found of trying to get people
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Otkrio sam da je korišćenje podataka
02:11
to take seriously the idea that the world may not be flat,
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najbolji način da ljudi ozbiljno shvate ideju
02:16
may not even be close to flat, is with some data.
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da svet možda nije ravan,
čak ni blizu toga.
čak ni blizu toga.
02:20
So one of the things I've been doing over the last few years
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Jedna od stvari koju sam radio
nekoliko prošlih godina
nekoliko prošlih godina
02:23
is really compiling data on things that could either happen
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je skupljanje podataka o stvarima
koje se mogu dogoditi
koje se mogu dogoditi
02:27
within national borders or across national borders,
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unutar ili preko državnih granica
02:31
and I've looked at the cross-border component
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i gledao sam procenat
prekogranične komponente
prekogranične komponente
02:35
as a percentage of the total.
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u odnosu na celinu.
02:37
I'm not going to present all the data that I have here today,
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Neću vam prikazati sve podatke
koje imam ovde,
koje imam ovde,
02:41
but let me just give you a few data points.
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ali ću vam pokazati par njih.
02:45
I'm going to talk a little bit about one kind of information flow,
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Pričaću malo o jednoj vrsti
protoka informacija,
protoka informacija,
02:49
one kind of flow of people, one kind of flow of capital,
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protoka ljudi, protoka kapitala
02:54
and, of course, trade in products and services.
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i naravno o trgovini proizvoda i usluga.
02:57
So let's start off with plain old telephone service.
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Počemo sa starim dobrim telefonom.
03:02
Of all the voice-calling minutes in the world last year,
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Od svih poziva na svetu prošle godine,
03:07
what percentage do you think were accounted for
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koliko procenata mislite da su zauzimali
03:12
by cross-border phone calls?
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prekogranični telefonski pozivi?
03:14
Pick a percentage in your own mind.
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Izaberite procenat u glavi.
03:18
The answer turns out to be two percent.
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Ispostavlja se da je odgovor
dva procenta.
dva procenta.
03:21
If you include Internet telephony, you might be able
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Ako uračunate i internet telefoniju,
možda uspete
možda uspete
03:25
to push this number up to six or seven percent,
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da pogurate ovaj broj
na šest ili sedam procenata,
na šest ili sedam procenata,
03:29
but it's nowhere near what people tend to estimate.
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ali to nije ni blizu onom što ljudi
uglavnom pretpostavljaju.
uglavnom pretpostavljaju.
03:33
Or let's turn to people moving across borders.
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Hajde da pređemo na ljude
koji prelaze granice.
koji prelaze granice.
03:37
One particular thing we might look at, in terms of
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Posebna stvar koju možemo
posmatrati, u pogledu
posmatrati, u pogledu
03:40
long-term flows of people, is what percentage
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dugoročnog protoka ljudi,
je koji procenat
je koji procenat
03:44
of the world's population is accounted for
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svetske populacije čini
03:48
by first-generation immigrants?
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prva generacija imigranata.
03:51
Again, please pick a percentage.
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Ponovo, izaberite neki procenat.
03:55
Turns out to be a little bit higher.
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Ispostavlja se da je malo viši.
03:57
It's actually about three percent.
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U stvari je oko tri procenta.
04:00
Or think of investment. Take all the real investment
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Pomislite na investicije.
Uzmite u obzir sve investicije
Uzmite u obzir sve investicije
04:05
that went on in the world in 2010.
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koje su se širom sveta desile 2010. godine.
04:08
What percentage of that was accounted for
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Koji procenat su činile
04:11
by foreign direct investment?
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direktne strane investicije?
04:15
Not quite ten percent.
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Malo manje od deset procenata.
04:19
And then finally, the one statistic
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I konačno, statistika
04:21
that I suspect many of the people in this room have seen:
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za koju mislim da ju je većina ljudi
u ovoj prostoriji ranije videla:
u ovoj prostoriji ranije videla:
04:24
the export-to-GDP ratio.
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odnos izvoza prema BDP-u.
04:27
If you look at the official statistics, they typically indicate
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Ako pogledate oficijelne statistike,
one obično prikazuju
one obično prikazuju
04:31
a little bit above 30 percent.
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nešto iznad 30 procenata.
04:33
However, there's a big problem with the official statistics,
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Međutim, postoji ogroman problem
sa zvaničnim statistikama,
sa zvaničnim statistikama,
04:39
in that if, for instance, a Japanese component supplier
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u tome što ako, na primer,
japanski snabdevač komponentama
japanski snabdevač komponentama
04:43
ships something to China to be put into an iPod,
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pošalje nešto u Kinu da se ugradi u ajpod
04:47
and then the iPod gets shipped to the U.S.,
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i onda se ajpod pošalje u SAD,
04:50
that component ends up getting counted multiple times.
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ta komponenta se prebroji više puta.
04:54
So nobody knows how bad this bias
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Tako da niko ne zna koliko ovo utiče
04:56
with the official statistics actually is, so I thought I would
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na zvanične statistike,
pa sam pomislio
pa sam pomislio
05:00
ask the person who's spearheading the effort
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da pitam osobu koja prednjači u naporima
05:03
to generate data on this, Pascal Lamy,
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da se skupe podaci o ovome,
Paskala Lamija,
Paskala Lamija,
05:06
the Director of the World Trade Organization,
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direktora Svetske trgovinske organizacije,
05:09
what his best guess would be
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koja je njegova najbolja procena
05:11
of exports as a percentage of GDP,
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o izvozima kao procentu BDP-a,
05:14
without the double- and triple-counting,
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bez duplog i trostrukog brojanja
05:17
and it's actually probably a bit under 20 percent, rather than
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i ona je nešto ispod 20 procenata,
05:21
the 30 percent-plus numbers that we're talking about.
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pre nego 30 ili više procenata
o kojima smo pričali.
o kojima smo pričali.
05:25
So it's very clear that if you look at these numbers
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Veoma je jasno da,
ako pogledate ove brojeve
ako pogledate ove brojeve
05:29
or all the other numbers that I talk about in my book,
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ili sve druge brojeve o kojima
pričam u svojoj knjizi,
pričam u svojoj knjizi,
05:33
"World 3.0," that we're very, very far from
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,,Svet 3.0", veoma smo daleko od
05:37
the no-border effect benchmark, which would imply
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bezgraničnog cilja,
koji bi podrazumevao
koji bi podrazumevao
05:41
internationalization levels of the order of 85, 90, 95 percent.
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nivoe internacionalizacije reda veličine
85, 90, 95 procenata.
85, 90, 95 procenata.
05:48
So clearly, apocalyptically-minded authors
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Jasno je da apokaliptični autori
05:52
have overstated the case.
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precenjuju stvar.
05:55
But it's not just the apocalyptics, as I think of them,
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Ali nisu samo apokaliptični,
kako ih zamišljam,
kako ih zamišljam,
05:59
who are prone to this kind of overstatement.
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podložni ovakvoj vrsti precenjivanja.
06:02
I've also spent some time surveying audiences
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Takođe sam proveo neko vreme
anketirajući publiku
anketirajući publiku
06:05
in different parts of the world
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u različitim delovima sveta
06:07
on what they actually guess these numbers to be.
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o njihovim pretpostavkama ovih brojeva.
06:11
Let me share with you the results of a survey
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Dozvolite mi da podelim rezultate ankete
06:14
that Harvard Business Review was kind enough to run
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koju je Harvard biznis pregled sproveo
06:18
of its readership as to what people's guesses
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među svojim čitaocima
o njihovim pretpostavkama
o njihovim pretpostavkama
06:21
along these dimensions actually were.
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o ovim brojevima.
06:26
So a couple of observations stand out for me from this slide.
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Par zapažanja se izdvaja
iz ovog slajda za mene.
iz ovog slajda za mene.
06:32
First of all, there is a suggestion of some error.
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Prvo, postoji sugestija neke greške.
06:37
Okay. (Laughter)
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OK.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
06:39
Second, these are pretty large errors. For four quantities
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Drugo, ovo su poprilično velike greške.
Za četiri brojke
Za četiri brojke
06:45
whose average value is less than 10 percent,
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čija je prosečna vrednost
manja od 10 procenata,
manja od 10 procenata,
06:48
you have people guessing three, four times that level.
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ljudi su pretpostavljali tri-četiri puta više.
06:52
Even though I'm an economist, I find that
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Iako sam ekonomista,
smatram da je ovo
smatram da je ovo
06:55
a pretty large error.
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poprilično velika greška.
06:57
And third, this is not just confined to the readers
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I treće, ovo nije samo
ograničeno na čitaoce
ograničeno na čitaoce
07:01
of the Harvard Business Review.
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Harvard biznis pregleda.
07:03
I've run several dozen such surveys in different parts
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Sproveo sam nekoliko desetina sličnih anketa
u različitim delovima sveta
u različitim delovima sveta
07:07
of the world, and in all cases except one,
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i u svim slučajevima osim jednog
07:10
where a group actually underestimated
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u kojoj je grupa potcenila
07:13
the trade-to-GDP ratio, people have this tendency
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odnos izvoza prema BDP-u,
ljudi imaju ovu tendenciju
ljudi imaju ovu tendenciju
07:17
towards overestimation, and so I thought it important
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da precenjuju i zato mislim
da je važno
da je važno
07:20
to give a name to this, and that's what I refer to
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nazvati ovo i to zovem
07:24
as globaloney, the difference between the dark blue bars
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globalonija, tu razliku između
tamno plavih poluga
tamno plavih poluga
07:28
and the light gray bars.
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i svetlo sivih poluga.
07:31
Especially because, I suspect, some of you may still be
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Posebno zato što sumnjam
da su neki od vas još uvek
da su neki od vas još uvek
07:35
a little bit skeptical of the claims, I think it's important
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pomalo skeptični u vezi sa ovim,
mislim da je važno
mislim da je važno
07:40
to just spend a little bit of time thinking about
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provesti malo više vremena
u razmišljanju
u razmišljanju
07:43
why we might be prone to globaloney.
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o tome zašto smo podložni globaloniji.
07:47
A couple of different reasons come to mind.
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Nekoliko različitih razloga
mi pada na pamet.
mi pada na pamet.
07:49
First of all, there's a real dearth of data in the debate.
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Prvi, postoji prava oskudica
podataka u ovoj debati.
podataka u ovoj debati.
07:54
Let me give you an example. When I first published
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Daću vam primer.
Kada sam prvi put objavio
Kada sam prvi put objavio
07:57
some of these data a few years ago
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neke od ovih podataka,
pre nekoliko godina
pre nekoliko godina
08:00
in a magazine called Foreign Policy,
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u časopisu zvanom Strana politika,
08:02
one of the people who wrote in, not entirely in agreement,
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jedan od ljudi koji je odgovorio,
ne u potpunosti u saglasnosti,
ne u potpunosti u saglasnosti,
08:06
was Tom Friedman. And since my article was titled
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je bio Tom Fridman. S obzirom da je
moj članak bio naslovljen
moj članak bio naslovljen
08:10
"Why the World Isn't Flat," that wasn't too surprising. (Laughter)
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,,Zašto svet nije ravan", to nije bilo previše
iznenađujuće. (Smeh)
iznenađujuće. (Smeh)
08:14
What was very surprising to me was Tom's critique,
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Ono što me je iznenadilo
je Tomova kritika,
je Tomova kritika,
08:19
which was, "Ghemawat's data are narrow."
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koja je bila:
,,Gemavatovi podaci su usko prikupljeni."
,,Gemavatovi podaci su usko prikupljeni."
08:24
And this caused me to scratch my head, because
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To me je zbunilo jer kako sam prolazio
08:27
as I went back through his several-hundred-page book,
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kroz njegovu knjigu
od nekoliko stotina stranica
od nekoliko stotina stranica
08:30
I couldn't find a single figure, chart, table,
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nisam mogao da nađem nijednu cifru,
grafikon, tabelu,
grafikon, tabelu,
08:35
reference or footnote.
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napomenu ili fusnotu.
08:37
So my point is, I haven't presented a lot of data here
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Moja poenta je, iako nisam pokazao
mnogo podataka ovde
mnogo podataka ovde
08:42
to convince you that I'm right, but I would urge you
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da vas ubedim da sam u pravu,
već da vas podstaknem
već da vas podstaknem
08:45
to go away and look for your own data
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da sami pronađete svoje podatke
08:48
to try and actually assess whether some of these
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i pokušate da procenite
da li su neka od ovih
da li su neka od ovih
08:52
hand-me-down insights that we've been bombarded with
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prenesenih shvatanja
kojima smo bombardovani
kojima smo bombardovani
08:56
actually are correct.
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u stvari tačna.
08:58
So dearth of data in the debate is one reason.
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Dakle, oskudica podataka je jedan razlog.
09:02
A second reason has to do with peer pressure.
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Drugi razlog je povezan
sa pritiskom vršnjaka.
sa pritiskom vršnjaka.
09:05
I remember, I decided to write my
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Sećam se da sam odlučio da napišem
09:09
"Why the World Isn't Flat" article, because
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,,Zašto svet nije ravan" članak zato što
09:11
I was being interviewed on TV in Mumbai,
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sam držao intervju na TV-u u Mumbaju
09:14
and the interviewer's first question to me was,
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i voditeljkino prvo pitanje je bilo:
09:18
"Professor Ghemawat, why do you still believe
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,,Profesore Gemavat, zašto i dalje mislite
09:22
that the world is round?" And I started laughing,
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da je svet okrugao?"
Počeo sam da se smejem
Počeo sam da se smejem
09:26
because I hadn't come across that formulation before. (Laughter)
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jer mi niko nije tako postavio to pitanje.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
09:30
And as I was laughing, I was thinking,
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Dok sam se smejao, razmišljao sam
09:32
I really need a more coherent response, especially
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kako mi je potreban
koherentniji odgovor, posebno
koherentniji odgovor, posebno
09:35
on national TV. I'd better write something about this. (Laughter)
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na nacionalnoj televiziji. Bilo bi bolje da napišem
nešto o ovome. (Smeh)
nešto o ovome. (Smeh)
09:39
But what I can't quite capture for you
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Ali ne mogu da vam tačno opišem
09:42
was the pity and disbelief
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sažaljenje i nevericu
09:45
with which the interviewer asked her question.
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sa kojom je voditeljka postavila to pitanje.
09:48
The perspective was, here is this poor professor.
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Njena perspektiva je bila,
ovo ovde je jadni profesor.
ovo ovde je jadni profesor.
09:53
He's clearly been in a cave for the last 20,000 years.
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Očigledno je proveo poslednjih
20 000 godina u pećini.
20 000 godina u pećini.
09:57
He really has no idea
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Stvarno nema pojma
10:00
as to what's actually going on in the world.
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šta se dešava u svetu.
10:03
So try this out with your friends and acquaintances,
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Probajte ovo sa svojim
prijateljima i poznanicima,
prijateljima i poznanicima,
10:06
if you like. You'll find that it's very cool
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ako želite. Videćete da je veoma kul
10:10
to talk about the world being one, etc.
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pričati o svetu kao celini itd.
10:13
If you raise questions about that formulation,
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Ako postavljate pitanja o tome,
10:17
you really are considered a bit of an antique.
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postajete pomalo starinski.
10:20
And then the final reason, which I mention,
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Poslednji razlog koji pominjem,
10:24
especially to a TED audience, with some trepidation,
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posebno TED publici, sa pomalo straha,
10:28
has to do with what I call "techno-trances."
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je povezan sa onim što zovem ,,tehno-transovi".
10:31
If you listen to techno music for long periods of time,
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Ako slušate tehno muziku
duži period vremena,
duži period vremena,
10:34
it does things to your brainwave activity. (Laughter)
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ona utiče na aktivnost vaših moždanih talasa.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
10:38
Something similar seems to happen
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Nešto slično se izgleda dešava
10:41
with exaggerated conceptions of how technology
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i sa preteranim koncepcijama
kako će tehnologija
kako će tehnologija
10:47
is going to overpower in the very immediate run
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da nadjača, u veoma brzom roku,
10:51
all cultural barriers, all political barriers,
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sve kulturne prepreke,
sve političke prepreke,
sve političke prepreke,
10:54
all geographic barriers, because at this point
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sve geografske prepreke
jer u ovom trenutku
jer u ovom trenutku
10:58
I know you aren't allowed to ask me questions,
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znam da vam nije dozvoljeno
da mi postavljate pitanja,
da mi postavljate pitanja,
11:00
but when I get to this point in my lecture with my students,
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ali kada dođem dovde
u svojim predavanjima sa studentima,
u svojim predavanjima sa studentima,
11:03
hands go up, and people ask me,
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ruke se dižu i ljudi me pitaju,
11:06
"Yeah, but what about Facebook?"
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,,Da, ali šta ćemo sa Fejsbukom?"
11:09
And I got this question often enough that I thought
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Ovo pitanje su mi postavili dovoljno često
da sam pomislio
da sam pomislio
11:12
I'd better do some research on Facebook.
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kako bi bilo dobro da sprovedem
istraživanje o Fejsbuku.
istraživanje o Fejsbuku.
11:15
Because, in some sense, it's the ideal kind of technology
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U neku ruku, to je idealna vrsta tehnologije
11:19
to think about. Theoretically, it makes it
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na koju možete pomisliti.
Teoretski, ona omogućava
Teoretski, ona omogućava
11:22
as easy to form friendships halfway around the world
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lako formiranje novih prijateljstava širom sveta
11:26
as opposed to right next door.
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nasuprot sa prvim susedom.
11:29
What percentage of people's friends on Facebook
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Koji procenat prijatelja na Fejsbuku
11:35
are actually located in countries other than where
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živi van države u kojoj žive ljudi
11:38
people we're analyzing are based?
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na kojima su zasnovane analize?
11:41
The answer is probably somewhere between
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Odgovor je verovatno negde između
11:44
10 to 15 percent.
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10 i 15 procenata.
11:47
Non-negligible, so we don't live in an entirely local
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Nije zanemarljivo. Dakle, ne živimo
ni u potpuno lokalnom
ni u potpuno lokalnom
11:51
or national world, but very, very far from the 95 percent level
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ili nacionalnom svetu, ali smo veoma daleko
od 95 procenata
od 95 procenata
11:56
that you would expect, and the reason's very simple.
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koje biste očekivali i razlog je veoma jednostavan.
12:00
We don't, or I hope we don't, form friendships at random
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Nadam se da ne formiramo
prijateljstva nasumično
prijateljstva nasumično
12:04
on Facebook. The technology is overlaid
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na Fejsbuku.
Tehnologija je postavljena
Tehnologija je postavljena
12:08
on a pre-existing matrix of relationships that we have,
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na već postojeću matricu odnosa
koje imamo
koje imamo
12:13
and those relationships are what the technology
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i te odnose tehnologija
12:16
doesn't quite displace. Those relationships are why
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ne menja u potpunosti.
Ti odnosi su razlog zašto
Ti odnosi su razlog zašto
12:19
we get far fewer than 95 percent of our friends
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imamo daleko ispod
95 procenata svojih prijatelja
95 procenata svojih prijatelja
12:23
being located in countries other than where we are.
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u državama različitim od naših.
12:27
So does all this matter? Or is globaloney
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Da li je sve ovo značajno?
Ili je globalonija
Ili je globalonija
12:33
just a harmless way of getting people to pay more attention
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samo bezopasan način primoravanja ljudi
da obrate više pažnje
da obrate više pažnje
12:38
to globalization-related issues?
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na probleme globalizacije?
12:41
I want to suggest that actually,
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Želim da predložim da u stvari
12:43
globaloney can be very harmful to your health.
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globalonija može biti veoma štetna
po vaše zdravlje.
po vaše zdravlje.
12:48
First of all, recognizing that the glass
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Kao prvo, prepoznavanje da je čaša
12:51
is only 10 to 20 percent full is critical to seeing
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samo 10 do 20 procenata puna
je veoma važno za shvatanje
je veoma važno za shvatanje
12:55
that there might be potential for additional gains
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da postoji potencijal za dodatne dobiti
12:59
from additional integration,
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od dodatnih integracija,
13:01
whereas if we thought we were already there,
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a ako mislimo da smo već tamo,
13:03
there would be no particular point to pushing harder.
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ne bi bilo ni razloga da nastavimo
da guramo napred.
da guramo napred.
13:07
It's a little bit like, we wouldn't be having a conference
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Kao na primer, ne bismo imali
ovu konferenciju
ovu konferenciju
13:10
on radical openness if we already thought we were totally open
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o radikalnoj otvorenosti da smatramo
da smo već potpuno otvoreni
da smo već potpuno otvoreni
13:14
to all the kinds of influences that are being talked about
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prema svim vrstama uticaja
o kojima se priča
o kojima se priča
13:18
at this conference.
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na ovoj konferenciji.
13:19
So being accurate about how limited globalization levels are
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Biti precizan o tome koliko je
ograničena globalizacija
ograničena globalizacija
13:24
is critical to even being able to notice
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je veoma važno, kako bismo bili
u stanju da primetimo
u stanju da primetimo
13:27
that there might be room for something more,
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da ima prostora za još nešto više,
13:31
something that would contribute further to global welfare.
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nešto što bi doprinelo
globalnom blagostanju.
globalnom blagostanju.
13:35
Which brings me to my second point.
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To me dovodi do moje druge poente.
13:37
Avoiding overstatement is also very helpful
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Izbegavanje precenjivanja je
takođe veoma korisno
takođe veoma korisno
13:42
because it reduces and in some cases even reverses
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jer smanjuje i u nekim slučajevima
u potpunosti preokreće,
u potpunosti preokreće,
13:46
some of the fears that people have about globalization.
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strahove ljudi o globalizaciji.
13:51
So I actually spend most of my "World 3.0" book
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Većinu svoje knjige ,,Svet 3.0" sam proveo
13:55
working through a litany of market failures and fears
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obrađujući litije o krahu tržišta i strahovima
13:59
that people have that they worry globalization is going to exacerbate.
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koje ljudi imaju i smatraju
da će ih globalizacija samo pogoršati.
da će ih globalizacija samo pogoršati.
14:04
I'm obviously not going to be able to do that for you today,
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Naravno to neću moći da uradim za vas danas,
14:08
so let me just present to you two headlines
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ali ću vam pokazati dva naslova
14:11
as an illustration of what I have in mind.
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kao primer onoga što imam na umu.
14:14
Think of France and the current debate about immigration.
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Pomislite na Francusku
i trenutnu debatu o imigraciji.
i trenutnu debatu o imigraciji.
14:19
When you ask people in France what percentage
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Kada pitate ljude u Francuskoj
koji procenat
koji procenat
14:22
of the French population is immigrants,
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francuske populacije čine imigranti,
14:24
the answer is about 24 percent. That's their guess.
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odgovor je oko 24 procenta.
To je njihova pretpostavka.
To je njihova pretpostavka.
14:29
Maybe realizing that the number is just eight percent
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Možda shvatanje da je taj broj
jedva osam procenata
jedva osam procenata
14:33
might help cool some of the superheated rhetoric
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pomogne da se ohladi uzavrela retorika
14:38
that we see around the immigration issue.
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koju vidimo u vezi sa ovim problemom.
14:41
Or to take an even more striking example,
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Ili da uzmemo još upadljiviji primer,
14:45
when the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations
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kada je Odbor Čikaga za strane odnose
14:47
did a survey of Americans, asking them to guess
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napravio anketu među Amerikancima,
pitajući ih da pogode
pitajući ih da pogode
14:51
what percentage of the federal budget went to foreign aid,
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koji deo federalnog budžeta se izdvaja
za međunarodnu pomoć,
za međunarodnu pomoć,
14:55
the guess was 30 percent, which is
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odgovor je bio 30 procenata, što je
14:59
slightly in excess of the actual level — ("actually about ... 1%") (Laughter) —
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malo iznad stvarnog nivoa
- (,,u stvari oko... 1%") (Smeh) -
- (,,u stvari oko... 1%") (Smeh) -
15:04
of U.S. governmental commitments to federal aid.
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davanja američke vlade za saveznu pomoć.
15:07
The reassuring thing about this particular survey was,
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Ohrabrujuća stvar u vezi sa ovom anketom je to
15:11
when it was pointed out to people how far
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da kada su ljudi saznali koliko
15:14
their estimates were from the actual data,
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su pogrešili u svojim procenama,
15:17
some of them — not all of them — seemed to become
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neki od njih su - ne svi - smatrali da
15:20
more willing to consider increases in foreign aid.
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bi trebalo povećati međunarodnu pomoć.
15:24
So foreign aid is actually a great way
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Međunarodna pomoć je u stvari odličan način
15:27
of sort of wrapping up here, because
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da završim sa ovim jer
15:30
if you think about it, what I've been talking about today
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kada razmislite o tome,
ono o čemu sam pričao danas je
ono o čemu sam pričao danas je
15:33
is this notion -- very uncontroversial amongst economists --
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ovaj pojam - veoma nekontroverzan
među ekonomistima -
među ekonomistima -
15:37
that most things are very home-biased.
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da je većina ljudi pristrasna.
15:40
"Foreign aid is the most aid to poor people,"
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"Međunarodna pomoć je
najveća pomoć siromašnima",
najveća pomoć siromašnima",
15:44
is about the most home-biased thing you can find.
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to je otprilike najveća
predrasuda koju možete naći.
predrasuda koju možete naći.
15:47
If you look at the OECD countries and how much
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Ako pogledate države članice OECD-a i koliko
15:50
they spend per domestic poor person,
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one troše po jednoj siromašnoj osobi
15:53
and compare it with how much they spend
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i uporedite sa trošenjem
15:56
per poor person in poor countries,
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po siromašnoj osobi
u siromašnim državama,
u siromašnim državama,
16:00
the ratio — Branko Milanovic at the World Bank did the calculations —
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odnos je - Branko Milanović
iz Svetske banke je radio proračune
iz Svetske banke je radio proračune
16:04
turns out to be about 30,000 to one.
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- oko 30 000 prema jedan.
16:09
Now of course, some of us, if we truly are cosmopolitan,
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Naravno, neki od nas bi,
ako smo stvarno kosmopolite,
ako smo stvarno kosmopolite,
16:15
would like to see that ratio being brought down
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želeli da vidimo kako se
taj odnos smanjuje
taj odnos smanjuje
16:18
to one-is-to-one.
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na jedan prema jedan.
16:20
I'd like to make the suggestion that we don't need to aim
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Želeo bih da predložim
da ne treba da ciljamo
da ne treba da ciljamo
16:24
for that to make substantial progress from where we are.
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da napravimo bitniji napredak
ovde gde smo sad.
ovde gde smo sad.
16:28
If we simply brought that ratio down to 15,000 to one,
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Ako bismo samo smanjili taj odnos
na 15 000 prema jedan,
na 15 000 prema jedan,
16:33
we would be meeting those aid targets that were agreed
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postigli bismo ciljeve
koji su dogovoreni
koji su dogovoreni
16:36
at the Rio Summit 20 years ago that the summit
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na samitu u Riju pre 20 godina,
za koje nije postignut
za koje nije postignut
16:40
that ended last week made no further progress on.
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nikakav napredak na samitu prošle nedelje.
16:44
So in summary, while radical openness is great,
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U zaključku, iako je radikalna otvorenost dobra,
16:48
given how closed we are,
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s obzirom na to koliko smo zatvoreni,
16:50
even incremental openness could make things
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čak bi i delimična otvorenost drastično
16:53
dramatically better. Thank you very much. (Applause)
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poboljšala stvari. Mnogo vam hvala.
(Aplauz)
(Aplauz)
16:56
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Pankaj Ghemawat - Globalization researcherOur world is not flat, says ecnomist Pankaj Ghemawat -- it's at best semi-globalized, with limited interactions between countries and economies.
Why you should listen
There seem to be two leading views of globalization: either that it is done and the world is flat (a view popularized by Tom Friedman) or that it has led to a world dominated by corporations (Naomi Klein). Pankaj Ghemawat disagrees with both -- and his case, backed by data, can be convincing. His most recent book, World 3.0, based on extensive research and backed up with abundant data, explores the true face of globalization--and shows that the world is not one vast market, but many small, interconnected, discrete entities, with varying degrees of openness to one another. That even the most open economies are still relatively closed. That we live in a world of semi-globalization at best. Ghemawat also refutes the assumption that globalization leads to homogeneization. According to The Economist, World 3.0 “should be read by anyone who wants to understand the most important economic development of our time.”
Ghemawat is a professor of strategic management at IESE Business School in Spain. In his latest work, he explores another kind of networked economy--the cross-border "geography" of Facebook and Twitter followers.
Pankaj Ghemawat | Speaker | TED.com