ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Amy Webb - Founder and CEO, Future Today Institute
Amy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.”

Why you should listen

Amy Webb uses data to understand the present and future of humanity, a practice she first developed as a journalist for the Wall Street Journal and Newsweek and has continued as a futurist. She is the head of the Future Today Institute, which researches collisions between technology, society and business — and maps scenarios that are on the horizon. She was named to the Thinkers50 Radar list of the 30 management thinkers most likely to shape the future of how organizations are managed and led.

Webb is on the adjunct faculty at the NYU Stern School of Business, where she teaches a popular MBA-level course on futures forecasting. She is the author of The Signals Are Talking, Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream, which has become the standard text on futures forecasting and explains how to predict and manage technological change. Her book Data: A Love Story tells the tale of how she gamed the online dating system to figure out how to find the love of her life.

More profile about the speaker
Amy Webb | Speaker | TED.com
TEDSalon NY2013

Amy Webb: How I hacked online dating

艾咪·韦伯: 玩转婚恋网

Filmed:
7,847,043 views

艾米·韦伯 (Amy Webb)在婚恋网运气不佳--看上的人不回复,约她的人又谈不拢(还有更糟的)。所以,这位数据迷开始列表运算找幸福。来听听她如何玩转婚恋网,把烦人的遭遇化为改变命运的快乐机遇。
- Founder and CEO, Future Today Institute
Amy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.” Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
So my name名称 is Amy艾米 Webb韦伯,
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我的名字呢 叫艾米·韦伯
00:15
and a few少数 years年份 ago I found发现 myself at the end结束
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几年前 我发现自己走到
00:17
of yet然而 another另一个 fantastic奇妙 relationship关系
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又一段美好恋情的尽头
00:20
that came来了 burning燃烧 down in a spectacular壮观 fashion时尚.
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一切绚丽消逝
00:23
And I thought, you know, what's wrong错误 with me?
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你说我 到底怎么了?
00:26
I don't understand理解 why this keeps保持 happening事件.
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真不懂 为什么每次都这样
00:28
So I asked everybody每个人 in my life
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我就去问 身边的人
00:30
what they thought.
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看他们 怎么想
00:32
I turned转身 to my grandmother祖母,
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我找到 姥姥
00:33
who always had plenty丰富 of advice忠告,
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她总有 很多忠告
00:36
and she said, "Stop being存在 so picky挑剔.
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她说 “别太挑剔了"
00:39
You've got to date日期 around.
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“你得 多跟人谈谈"
00:40
And most importantly重要的,
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“还有 最重要的是“
00:42
true真正 love will find you when you least最小 expect期望 it."
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“顺其自然 缘分始终会来的“
00:46
Now as it turns out,
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而实际上
00:48
I'm somebody who thinks a lot about data数据,
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我这个人 总要找依据
00:50
as you'll你会 soon不久 find.
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这点相信你 很快会发现
00:52
I am constantly经常 swimming游泳的 in numbers数字
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我总是沉浸在 数字当中
00:55
and formulas公式 and charts图表.
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长期和公式 图表打交道
00:56
I also have a very tight-knit绵密 family家庭,
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同时 我的家庭 非常和睦
00:59
and I'm very, very close with my sister妹妹,
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我和姐姐 关系特别好
01:01
and as a result结果, I wanted to have
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所以 从小我就想
01:02
the same相同 type类型 of family家庭 when I grew成长 up.
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长大以后 要有一个温暖的大家庭
01:04
So I'm at the end结束 of this bad breakup分手,
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所以这次分手 很伤心
01:06
I'm 30 years年份 old,
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我当时30岁
01:08
I figure数字 I'm probably大概 going to have
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想着 起码要和下一任
01:09
to date日期 somebody for about six months个月
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交往6个月
01:11
before I'm ready准备 to get monogamous一夫一妻制
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才能真正 确定关系
01:13
and before we can sort分类 of cohabitate同居,
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然后再考虑 搬一起住
01:15
and we have to have that happen发生 for a while before we can get engaged订婚.
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之后再过段时间 才考虑订婚
01:18
And if I want to start开始 having children孩子 by the time I'm 35,
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所以 如果想在35岁之前 要孩子
01:21
that meant意味着 that I would have had to have been
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就意味着我必须
01:23
on my way to marriage婚姻 five years年份 ago.
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提前5年为结婚做准备
01:26
So that wasn't going to work.
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很明显 那行不通
01:27
If my strategy战略 was to least-expect万万没想到 my way
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如果换个思路 “顺其自然”等缘分
01:30
into true真正 love, then the variable变量 that I had
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那么 我要面临的变数 是运气
01:32
to deal合同 with was serendipity意外发现.
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那么 我要面临的变数 是运气
01:34
In short, I was trying to figure数字 out, well,
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简单来说 我想探个究竟 看看
01:36
what's the probability可能性 of my finding发现 Mr先生. Right?
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随缘偶遇真命天子 概率有多高
01:40
Well, at the time I was living活的 in the city of Philadelphia费城,
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当时我呢 住在费城
01:42
and it's a big city, and I figured想通,
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这是个大城市 所以我判断
01:45
in this entire整个 place地点, there are lots of possibilities可能性.
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地方越大 机会越大
01:48
So again, I started开始 doing some math数学.
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接着我又开始 算数了
01:50
Population人口 of Philadelphia费城: It has 1.5 million百万 people.
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费城人口:总共150万
01:54
I figure数字 about half of that are men男人,
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估计 一半是男性
01:55
so that takes the number down to 750,000.
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有效人数 下降到75万
01:58
I'm looking for a guy between之间 the ages年龄 of 30 and 36,
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我的目标是 30到36岁之间的男性
02:01
which哪一个 was only four percent百分 of the population人口,
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他们 占这部分人口的4%
02:04
so now I'm dealing交易 with the possibility可能性 of 30,000 men男人.
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算起来 可能剩下3万人
02:07
I was looking for somebody who was Jewish犹太,
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我要找 犹太人
02:08
because that's what I am and that was important重要 to me.
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因为我本身也是 这点很重要
02:11
That's only 2.3 percent百分 of the population人口.
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他们只占 这部分人口的2.3%
02:13
I figure数字 I'm attracted吸引 to maybe one out of 10
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然后 估计10个人当中 有1个我喜欢
02:15
of those men男人,
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然后 估计10个人当中 有1个我喜欢
02:18
and there was no way I was going
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还有 我和爱打高尔夫的 完全合不来
02:20
to deal合同 with somebody who was an avid狂热 golfer高尔夫球手.
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还有 我和爱打高尔夫的 完全合不来
02:22
So that basically基本上 meant意味着 there were 35 men男人 for me
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也就是说 对我而言
02:25
that I could possibly或者 date日期
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费城总共有35位男士 适宜约会
02:28
in the entire整个 city of Philadelphia费城.
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在整个费城!
02:32
In the meantime与此同时, my very large Jewish犹太 family家庭
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与此同时 我们犹太大家族
02:35
was already已经 all married已婚 and well on their way
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其他成员 全部都结了婚
02:38
to having lots and lots of children孩子,
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而且还生了 很多很多孩子
02:40
and I felt like I was under tremendous巨大 peer窥视 pressure压力
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所以我总有 巨大的压力和紧迫感
02:42
to get my life going already已经.
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要尽快解决 人生大事
02:44
So if I have two possible可能 strategies策略 at this point
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这时候 我有两个办法
02:46
I'm sort分类 of figuring盘算 out.
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我发现
02:47
One, I can take my grandmother's祖母 advice忠告
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一是 可以听姥姥的话
02:50
and sort分类 of least-expect万万没想到 my way
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尝试“顺其自然” 碰上那一位
02:52
into maybe bumping碰撞 into the one
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尝试“顺其自然” 碰上那一位
02:55
out of 35 possible可能 men男人 in the entire整个
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在费城茫茫 150万人海中
02:57
1.5 million-person百万人 city of Philadelphia费城,
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偶遇那35位男士 其中的一位
03:01
or I could try online线上 dating约会.
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又或者 我可以试试婚恋网
03:04
Now, I like the idea理念 of online线上 dating约会,
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其实我挺喜欢 这个概念
03:06
because it's predicated预测 on an algorithm算法,
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因为我们可以 用运算规则推算结果
03:08
and that's really just a simple简单 way of saying
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所谓运算规则 其实很简单
03:10
I've got a problem问题, I'm going to use some data数据,
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当我们遇到问题 只要收集数据
03:12
run it through通过 a system系统
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放到系统里面 就能找到解决办法
03:13
and get to a solution.
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放到系统里面 就能找到解决办法
03:16
So online线上 dating约会 is the second第二 most popular流行 way
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婚恋网 现在已经成为大家
03:18
that people now meet遇到 each other,
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互相认识的 第二大途径
03:20
but as it turns out, algorithms算法 have been around
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不过 网站的运算规则
03:22
for thousands数千 of years年份 in almost几乎 every一切 culture文化.
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在几千年前 就可以找到
03:25
In fact事实, in Judaism犹太教, there were matchmakers媒人
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例如犹太族 从很早以前就有媒人
03:28
a long time ago, and though虽然
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例如犹太族 从很早以前就有媒人
03:29
they didn't have an explicit明确的 algorithm算法 per seSE,
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虽然他们没有 列出公式
03:32
they definitely无疑 were running赛跑 through通过 formulas公式 in their heads,
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但在脑子里 一定琢磨过这些问题
03:34
like, is the girl女孩 going to like the boy男孩?
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比如 女孩会喜欢男孩吗?
03:36
Are the families家庭 going to get along沿?
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两家人能处得来吗?
03:38
What's the rabbi拉比 going to say?
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拉比(犹太教教师或法学导师)会怎么说?
03:39
Are they going to start开始 having children孩子 right away?
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他们会不会马上生孩子?
03:42
And the matchmaker媒人 would sort分类 of think through通过 all of this,
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媒人们会 先想好这些问题
03:45
put two people together一起, and that would be the end结束 of it.
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再把两个人凑到一起 就完事了
03:47
So in my case案件, I thought,
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而我呢 我想
03:49
well, will data数据 and an algorithm算法
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能不能通过数据和公式
03:52
lead me to my Prince王子 Charming迷人?
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帮我找到白马王子?
03:54
So I decided决定 to sign标志 on.
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我决定注册
03:56
Now, there was one small catch抓住.
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这里还有一个小插曲
03:57
As I'm signing签约 on to the various各个 dating约会 websites网站,
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我开设了几个婚恋网帐户
04:00
as it happens发生, I was really, really busy.
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碰巧那段时间特别 特别忙
04:02
But that actually其实 wasn't the biggest最大 problem问题.
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不过那还不是 最大的问题
04:05
The biggest最大 problem问题 is that I hate讨厌
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最大的 问题是
04:07
filling填充 out questionnaires问卷调查 of any kind,
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我讨厌填 问答表
04:09
and I certainly当然 don't like questionnaires问卷调查
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尤其不喜欢 时尚杂志小编爱问的题目
04:11
that are like Cosmo科斯莫 quizzes测验.
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尤其不喜欢 时尚杂志小编爱问的题目
04:13
So I just copied复制 and pasted粘贴 from my résumé.
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所以我直接把简历 复制粘贴上去
04:16
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
04:21
So in the descriptive描述的 part部分 up top最佳,
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上面 描述部分
04:24
I said that I was an award-winning获奖 journalist记者
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我说我是 获奖记者
04:26
and a future未来 thinker思想家.
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和未来思考者
04:28
When I was asked about fun开玩笑 activities活动 and
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让我描述兴趣爱好和理想人选
04:30
my ideal理想 date日期, I said monetization货币化
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我填了 赚钱
04:33
and fluency流畅 in Japanese日本.
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和日语流利
04:36
I talked a lot about JavaScriptJavaScript的.
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还写了很多关于 网页编码的内容
04:38
So obviously明显 this was not the best最好 way
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这一步 走得确实不太优雅
04:42
to put my most sexy性感的 foot脚丫子 forward前锋.
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这一步 走得确实不太优雅
04:45
But the real真实 failure失败 was that
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最根本的问题是
04:47
there were plenty丰富 of men男人 for me to date日期.
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还是有很多男士 和我约会
04:50
These algorithms算法 had a sea full充分 of men男人
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配对公式 为我找到一大批男士
04:52
that wanted to take me out on lots of dates日期 --
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他们不断约我--
04:55
what turned转身 out to be truly awful可怕 dates日期.
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可结果却特别糟糕
04:59
There was this guy Steve史蒂夫, the I.T. guy.
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其中有一位 叫史蒂夫的技术男
05:01
The algorithm算法 matched匹配 us up
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配对公式 发现我们都对小玩意着迷
05:03
because we share分享 a love of gadgets小工具,
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配对公式 发现我们都对小玩意着迷
05:05
we share分享 a love of math数学 and data数据 and '80s music音乐,
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我们是数学迷 数据迷 还是80年代歌迷
05:09
and so I agreed同意 to go out with him.
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我同意见他
05:11
So Steve史蒂夫 the I.T. guy invited邀请 me out
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然后这位技术男 带我到
05:13
to one of Philadelphia's费城 white-table-cloth白表布,
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费城一家 特别高消费的西餐厅
05:15
extremely非常 expensive昂贵 restaurants餐馆.
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费城一家 特别高消费的西餐厅
05:17
And we went in, and right off the bat蝙蝠,
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刚到 我们就发现
05:19
our conversation会话 really wasn't taking服用 flight飞行,
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谈得 不太有意思
05:22
but he was ordering排序 a lot of food餐饮.
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但他 点了很多吃的
05:24
In fact事实, he didn't even bother looking at the menu菜单.
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他餐牌都 不用看
05:26
He was ordering排序 multiple appetizers开胃菜,
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就点了几份 开胃菜
05:28
multiple entrENTRéesES, for me as well,
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几份主食 还帮我点了
05:31
and suddenly突然 there are piles and piles of food餐饮 on our table,
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忽然间 桌上堆满了大盘小盘吃的
05:33
also lots and lots of bottles瓶子 of wine红酒.
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还有 很多很多瓶酒
05:36
So we're nearing接近 the end结束 of our conversation会话
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在我们 谈得差不多
05:38
and the end结束 of dinner晚餐, and I've decided决定
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晚餐也 接近尾声的时候
05:39
Steve史蒂夫 the I.T. guy and I are really just not meant意味着 for each other,
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我确信和技术男 并非天生一对
05:42
but we'll part部分 ways方法 as friends朋友,
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但再见 还可以是朋友
05:44
when he gets得到 up to go to the bathroom浴室,
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他去趟 洗手间
05:47
and in the meantime与此同时 the bill法案 comes to our table.
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帐单也来了
05:50
And listen, I'm a modern现代 woman女人.
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看 我是现代女性
05:53
I am totally完全 down with splitting分裂 the bill法案.
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平分帐单完全没问题
05:56
But then Steve史蒂夫 the I.T. guy didn't come back. (Gasping喘气)
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但 技术男却没回来(倒吸气)
06:00
And that was my entire整个 month's一个月 rent出租.
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而那是我 整整一个月的房租
06:04
So needless不必要 to say, I was not having a good night.
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不用说 我那天晚上很不好受
06:08
So I run home, I call my mother母亲, I call my sister妹妹,
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跑回家之后 我打电话找妈妈 找姐姐
06:11
and as I do, at the end结束 of each one of these
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每一次经历这些 糟糕至极的约会之后
06:14
terrible可怕, terrible可怕 dates日期,
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我都会 打给她们
06:16
I regale款待 them with the details细节.
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我披露 每一个细节
06:18
And they say to me,
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之后 她们对我说
06:20
"Stop complaining抱怨的."
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“别抱怨了”
06:22
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
06:23
"You're just being存在 too picky挑剔."
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“你就是太挑”
06:26
So I said, fine, from here on out
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我说 好吧 那以后
06:28
I'm only going on dates日期 where I know
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我只去 有无线网络的地方约会
06:29
that there's wi-fi无线上网, and I'm bringing使 my laptop笔记本电脑.
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要带上 手提电脑
06:31
I'm going to shove it into my bag,
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把它 塞到袋子里
06:33
and I'm going to have this email电子邮件 template模板,
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然后做一个 邮件模版
06:35
and I'm going to fill it out and collect搜集 information信息
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把收集到的信息 填进去
06:37
on all these different不同 data数据 points during the date日期
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一边约会 一边填
06:40
to prove证明 to everybody每个人 that empirically经验,
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用客观事实 向大家证实
06:42
these dates日期 really are terrible可怕. (Laughter笑声)
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这些约会 究竟有多糟糕 (笑声)
06:44
So I started开始 tracking追踪 things like
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我开始 记录那些
06:46
really stupid, awkward尴尬, sexual有性 remarks备注;
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无聊又尴尬的 性暗示语言
06:49
bad vocabulary词汇;
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不适当的用词
06:51
the number of times a man forced被迫 me to high-five举手击掌 him.
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还有对方 逼我与他击掌的次数
06:54
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
06:56
So I started开始 to crunch紧缩 some numbers数字,
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然后我开始 统计这些数据
07:00
and that allowed允许 me to make some correlations相关.
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并且找到 一些关联
07:03
So as it turns out,
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我发现
07:06
for some reason原因, men男人 who drink Scotch苏格兰人
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不知为什么 喝苏格兰威士忌的男性
07:09
reference参考 kinky sex性别 immediately立即.
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立马联想到 性怪癖
07:11
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
07:13
Well, it turns out that these
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当然 不是说
07:16
probably大概 weren't bad guys.
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他们不好
07:17
There were just bad for me.
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只是 不适合我
07:19
And as it happens发生, the algorithms算法 that were setting设置 us up,
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同样 把我们凑到一起的 配对公式
07:23
they weren't bad either.
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也不差
07:24
These algorithms算法 were doing exactly究竟
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它们按预先设计好的 正常运行
07:26
what they were designed设计 to do,
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它们按预先设计好的 正常运行
07:27
which哪一个 was to take our user-generated用户生成的 information信息,
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用提取到的 用户信息
07:30
in my case案件, my résumé,
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比如 我的简历
07:32
and match比赛 it up with other people's人们 information信息.
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再和其他人的信息 配对
07:35
See, the real真实 problem问题 here is that,
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可见 真正的问题是
07:36
while the algorithms算法 work just fine,
186
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虽然公式会按部就班
07:38
you and I don't, when confronted面对
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我们却没有
07:40
with blank空白 windows视窗 where we're supposed应该
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当我们面对 空白栏
07:42
to input输入 our information信息 online线上.
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填写 个人信息的地方
07:44
Very few少数 of us have the ability能力
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没有多少人
07:46
to be totally完全 and brutally粗暴地 honest诚实 with ourselves我们自己.
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可以赤裸裸地 描述完全真实的自己
07:50
The other problem问题 is that these websites网站 are asking us
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另一个问题是 网站总爱问
07:52
questions问题 like, are you a dog person or a cat person?
193
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你喜欢猫还是喜欢狗?
07:55
Do you like horror恐怖 films影片 or romance浪漫 films影片?
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爱看惊悚片还是爱情片?之类的问题
07:58
I'm not looking for a pen钢笔 pal朋友.
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我又不是来找笔友
08:00
I'm looking for a husband丈夫. Right?
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我在找丈夫 对吧?
08:02
So there's a certain某些 amount of superficiality肤浅 in that data数据.
197
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而这些数据 比较肤浅
08:05
So I said fine, I've got a new plan计划.
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所以 我有个新计划
08:08
I'm going to keep using运用 these online线上 dating约会 sites网站,
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继续上 婚恋网
08:10
but I'm going to treat对待 them as databases数据库,
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但只把它们当作 资料库
08:12
and rather than waiting等候 for an algorithm算法 to set me up,
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而不是继续 被动地等公式配对
08:15
I think I'm going to try reverse-engineering逆向工程 this entire整个 system系统.
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我要把整个系统反过来 重新定义
08:19
So knowing会心 that there was superficial data数据
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既然公式配对 用的是肤浅信息
08:22
that was being存在 used to match比赛 me up with other people,
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既然公式配对 用的是肤浅信息
08:24
I decided决定 instead代替 to ask my own拥有 questions问题.
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我决定 自己问问题
08:27
What was every一切 single possible可能 thing
206
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我要找的 另一半
08:28
that I could think of that I was looking for in a mate伴侣?
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需要具备 哪些条件呢?
08:31
So I started开始 writing写作 and writing写作 and writing写作,
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我开始写 不停地写
08:36
and at the end结束, I had amassed聚敛
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到最后 我积攒了72个数据点
08:38
72 different不同 data数据 points.
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到最后 我积攒了72个数据点
08:41
I wanted somebody was Jew...ishISH,
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我想找 犹太人
08:43
so I was looking for somebody who had the same相同
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找一个与我有 共同文化背景和观点的人
08:45
background背景 and thoughts思念 on our culture文化,
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找一个与我有 共同文化背景和观点的人
08:47
but wasn't going to force me to go to shulshul
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但他又不会 强迫我
08:49
every一切 Friday星期五 and Saturday星期六.
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每周五六去 犹太集会
08:51
I wanted somebody who worked工作 hard,
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我想找一个 勤奋的人
08:53
because work for me is extremely非常 important重要,
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因为我觉得 工作特别重要
08:55
but not too hard.
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但不能 工作狂
08:56
For me, the hobbies爱好 that I have
219
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对我来说 我的兴趣
08:58
are really just new work projects项目 that I've launched推出.
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无非是我的 一些新项目
09:01
I also wanted somebody who not only wanted two children孩子,
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我还想找一个 打算生两个小孩
09:04
but was going to have the same相同 attitude态度 toward parenting育儿 that I do,
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而且在育儿方面和我 观点一致的人
09:07
so somebody who was going to be totally完全 okay
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也就是说 他完全不介意
09:09
with forcing迫使 our child儿童 to start开始 taking服用 piano钢琴 lessons教训 at age年龄 three,
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要孩子三岁学钢琴
09:12
and also maybe computer电脑 science科学 classes
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可能还外加一些 电脑课
09:16
if we could wrangle争吵 it.
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如果 条件允许的话
09:18
So things like that, but I also wanted somebody
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除此之外 我还想找一个
09:20
who would go to far-flung遥远, exotic异国情调 places地方,
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愿意 远足异乡的人
09:22
like Petra佩特拉, Jordan约旦.
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一起去 约旦的彼得拉
09:23
I also wanted somebody who would weigh称重
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还有 我希望他
09:25
20 pounds英镑 more than me at all times,
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比我重20磅 不论时间
09:27
regardless而不管 of what I weighed称重.
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也不论我当时 体重是多少
09:28
(Laughter笑声)
233
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(笑声)
09:31
So I now have these 72 different不同 data数据 points,
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有了这 72个数据点
09:34
which哪一个, to be fair公平, is a lot.
235
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说实话 还真不少了
09:36
So what I did was, I went through通过
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接下来着 我整理出
09:37
and I prioritized优先 that list名单.
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优先次序
09:39
I broke打破 it into a top最佳 tier一线 and a second第二 tier一线 of points,
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分两层 排列这些数据点
09:43
and I ranked排名 everything starting开始 at 100
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然后从100
09:46
and going all the way down to 91,
240
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排到91?
09:48
and listing清单 things like I was looking for somebody who was really smart聪明,
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写的有 我希望找一个 很聪明的人
09:51
who would challenge挑战 and stimulate刺激 me,
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一个可以给我带来 挑战和刺激的人
09:53
and balancing平衡 that with a second第二 tier一线
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然后在第二层
09:55
and a second第二 set of points.
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放上 另外一组数据点
09:57
These things were also important重要 to me
245
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这些对我 同样重要
09:59
but not necessarily一定 deal-breakers交易断路器.
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但不是 必不可少
10:04
So once一旦 I had all this doneDONE,
247
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列表完毕 之后
10:05
I then built内置 a scoring得分 system系统,
248
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1809
我开始 建立计分系统
10:07
because what I wanted to do
249
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我想尝试 借助数学计算出
10:09
was to sort分类 of mathematically数学 calculate计算
250
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1850
我想尝试 借助数学计算出
10:11
whether是否 or not I thought the guy that I found发现 online线上
251
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我和网站人选 是否匹配
10:14
would be a match比赛 with me.
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我和网站人选 是否匹配
10:15
I figured想通 there would be a minimum最低限度 of 700 points
253
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我想 对方至少要达到700分
10:18
before I would agree同意 to email电子邮件 somebody
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才给他 发电子邮件
10:19
or respond响应 to an email电子邮件 message信息.
255
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或者 回信
10:21
For 900 points, I'd agree同意 to go out on a date日期,
256
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2002
达到900分 才答应约会
10:23
and I wouldn't不会 even consider考虑 any kind of relationship关系
257
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我不会轻易 投入感情
10:26
before somebody had crossed越过 the 1,500 point threshold.
258
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除非对方 超过1500分才可以考虑
10:30
Well, as it turns out, this worked工作 pretty漂亮 well.
259
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这个方法 还挺有效的
10:33
So I go back online线上 now.
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我回到 婚恋网
10:35
I found发现 JewishdocJewishdoc57
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发现了 Jewishdoc57
10:38
who's谁是 incredibly令人难以置信 good-looking好看, incredibly令人难以置信 well-spoken说得好,
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他出奇地帅 而且谈吐出众
10:41
he had hiked上调 Mt公吨. Fuji富士,
263
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1718
曾经登上 富士山
10:42
he had walked along沿 the Great Wall.
264
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徒步长城
10:44
He likes喜欢 to travel旅行 as long as it doesn't involve涉及 a cruise巡航 ship.
265
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而且他喜欢旅行 只要没有游船就好
10:47
And I thought, I've doneDONE it!
266
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2738
我想 我成功了!
10:50
I've cracked破解 the code.
267
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2064
编码已被破解
10:52
I have just found发现 the Jewish犹太 Prince王子 Charming迷人
268
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3770
我终于发现了 犹太白马王子
10:56
of my family's家庭的 dreams.
269
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2218
正如 家人所愿
10:58
There was only one problem问题:
270
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问题 只有一个
11:00
He didn't like me back.
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他 并不喜欢我
11:03
And I guess猜测 the one variable变量 that I haven't没有 considered考虑
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看来有一个变数 我还没考虑
11:06
is the competition竞争.
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那就是 竞争对手
11:08
Who are all of the other women妇女
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社交网站 都有哪些 其他的女性?
11:10
on these dating约会 sites网站?
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社交网站 都有哪些 其他的女性?
11:12
I found发现 SmileyGirlSmileyGirl1978.
276
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3704
我发现了 SmileyGirl1978
11:16
She said she was a "fun开玩笑 girl女孩 who is Happy快乐 and Outgoing传出."
277
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2829
她说她是 "快乐、活泼、有趣的女孩"
11:19
She listed上市 her job工作 as teacher老师.
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她填写的职业是 教师
11:20
She said she is "silly愚蠢, nice不错 and friendly友善."
279
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2606
她说她 "很傻 很友善“
11:23
She likes喜欢 to make people laugh "alot很多."
280
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2449
“常常”爱逗大家笑
11:25
At this moment时刻 I knew知道, clicking点击 after profile轮廓
281
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2442
就在那一刻 在点击完一个又一个
11:28
after profile轮廓 after profile轮廓 that looked看着 like this,
282
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2051
类似的个人档案之后
11:30
that I needed需要 to do some market市场 research研究.
283
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2176
我知道还需要 市场调研
11:32
So I created创建 10 fake male profiles型材.
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3280
接着我建立了 10个虚拟的 男士档案
11:35
Now, before I lose失去 all of you --
285
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2944
在人都 走光之前
11:38
(Laughter笑声) --
286
686722
1753
(笑声)-
11:40
understand理解 that I did this
287
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我想请大家 谅解我的初衷
11:44
strictly严格 to gather收集 data数据
288
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2137
仅仅是 收集数据
11:46
about everybody每个人 else其他 in the system系统.
289
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去了解系统内的 其他人
11:47
I didn't carry携带 on crazy Catfish-style鲶鱼式 relationships关系 with anybody任何人.
290
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4195
我并没有 借此进行任何不道德的交流
11:52
I really was just scraping their data数据.
291
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2013
确实只是 收集数据
11:54
But I didn't want everybody's每个人的 data数据.
292
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1968
还不是 所有人的数据
11:56
I only wanted data数据 on the women妇女
293
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1883
仅限女性 那些
11:58
who were going to be attracted吸引
294
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1564
我的理想伴侣 可能会喜欢的女性(笑声)
11:59
to the type类型 of man that I really, really wanted to marry结婚. (Laughter笑声)
295
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3234
我的理想伴侣 可能会喜欢的女性(笑声)
12:02
When I released发布 these men男人 into the wild野生,
296
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3595
我把虚拟男士 放出来之后
12:06
I did follow跟随 some rules规则.
297
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1302
还遵守了 一些规矩
12:07
So I didn't reach达到 out to any woman女人 first.
298
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2140
首先我没有 主动联系女性
12:09
I just waited等待 to see who these profiles型材 were going to attract吸引,
299
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2921
只等着看 能吸引到谁
12:12
and mainly主要 what I was looking at was two different不同 data数据 sets.
300
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3371
主要关注点 有两方面
12:16
So I was looking at qualitative定性 data数据,
301
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1538
首先是 定性数据
12:17
so what was the humor幽默, the tone,
302
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1949
比如 幽默感 语调
12:19
the voice语音, the communication通讯 style样式
303
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1562
声音 沟通方式
12:21
that these women妇女 shared共享 in common共同?
304
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1850
这些女性 的共通点是什么?
12:23
And also quantitative data数据,
305
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1283
还有 定量数据
12:24
so what was the average平均 length长度 of their profile轮廓,
306
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2338
比如 个人档案的平均长度
12:26
how much time was spent花费 between之间 messages消息?
307
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2235
两次通信之间 隔多久
12:28
What I was trying to get at here was
308
736889
1681
我想证明的是
12:30
that I figured想通 in person,
309
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1925
如果有机会 面对面交流
12:32
I would be just as competitive竞争的
310
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1410
我的竞争力
12:33
as a SmileyGirlSmileyGirl1978.
311
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2065
不比SmileyGirl1978差
12:35
I wanted to figure数字 out how to maximize最大化
312
743970
1900
所以 我想知道怎么调整 网上档案
12:37
my own拥有 profile轮廓 online线上.
313
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2940
才能最好地 呈现自己
12:40
Well, one month later后来,
314
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1727
一个月 之后
12:42
I had a lot of data数据, and I was able能够 to do another另一个 analysis分析.
315
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3753
我收集了大量数据 足够再分析一回
12:46
And as it turns out, content内容 matters事项 a lot.
316
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2880
结果发现 内容很重要
12:49
So smart聪明 people tend趋向 to write a lot --
317
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2706
聪明的人 往往写很多 — —
12:51
3,000, 4,000,
318
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1875
3、4千
12:53
5,000 words about themselves他们自己,
319
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1743
甚至5千字 自我介绍
12:55
which哪一个 may可能 all be very, very interesting有趣.
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也许真的 非常非常有意思
12:57
The challenge挑战 here, though虽然, is that
321
765640
1352
但 很难匹敌
12:58
the popular流行 men男人 and women妇女
322
766992
1182
最受欢迎男女
13:00
are sticking症结 to 97 words on average平均
323
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3772
精选的97个字
13:03
that are written书面 very, very well,
324
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精选的97个字
13:05
even though虽然 it may可能 not seem似乎 like it all the time.
325
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虽然我们不一定 感觉得到
13:08
The other sort分类 of hallmark特点 of the people who do this well
326
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高手们的另外一个杀手锏
13:10
is that they're using运用 non-specific非特异性 language语言.
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是不特定语言
13:12
So in my case案件, you know,
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以我为例 你看
13:14
"The English英语 Patient患者" is my most favorite喜爱 movie电影 ever,
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"英国病人" 是我 最喜欢的电影
13:17
but it doesn't work to use that in a profile轮廓,
330
785348
3809
但它不适合 放在个人档案里面
13:21
because that's a superficial data数据 point,
331
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1741
因为这是一个 肤浅的数据点
13:22
and somebody may可能 disagree不同意 with me
332
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1542
有人可能 会有不同意见
13:24
and decide决定 they don't want to go out with me
333
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1215
并且 决定不和我约会
13:25
because they didn't like sitting坐在 through通过 the three-hour三小时 movie电影.
334
793671
2699
仅仅因为他们不愿意 花三个小时看一场电影
13:28
Also, optimistic乐观 language语言 matters事项 a lot.
335
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还有 积极正面的语言很重要
13:30
So this is a word cloud
336
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看这些关键词
13:32
highlighting突出 the most popular流行 words that were used
337
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里面是 最常用的词语
13:34
by the most popular流行 women妇女,
338
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最受欢迎女性 都在用
13:36
words like "fun开玩笑" and "girl女孩" and "love."
339
804138
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比如 "有趣" “女孩” 还有 “爱”
13:38
And what I realized实现 was not that I had
340
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2111
后来 我意识到
13:40
to dumb down my own拥有 profile轮廓.
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没必要写一个 低智商简介
13:42
Remember记得, I'm somebody who said
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还记得吗 我说
13:43
that I speak说话 fluent流利 Japanese日本 and I know JavaScriptJavaScript的
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我能讲流利的日语 并且熟悉网页编码
13:46
and I was okay with that.
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这些都 没问题
13:48
The difference区别 is that it's about being存在 more approachable亲切
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重点是 怎么写 让自己显得更亲切
13:51
and helping帮助 people understand理解
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让别人知道 怎么采取主动
13:53
the best最好 way to reach达到 out to you.
347
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让别人知道 怎么采取主动
13:55
And as it turns out, timing定时 is also really, really important重要.
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除此之外 时机也非常重要
13:57
Just because you have access访问
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当我们拿到
13:59
to somebody's某人的 mobile移动 phone电话 number
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别人的 手机号码
14:01
or their instant瞬间 message信息 account帐户
351
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或者 聊天帐号
14:03
and it's 2 o'clock in the morning早上 and you happen发生 to be awake苏醒,
352
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2407
碰巧凌晨2点还没睡
14:05
doesn't mean that that's a good time to communicate通信 with those people.
353
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也许不是 联系他们的好时机
14:08
The popular流行 women妇女 on these online线上 sites网站
354
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2649
最受欢迎的女性
14:11
spend an average平均 of 23 hours小时
355
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一般会等 23小时
14:13
in between之间 each communication通讯.
356
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再进行 下一次沟通
14:15
And that's what we would normally一般 do
357
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1931
这也是我们 约会时的常规
14:17
in the usual通常 process处理 of courtship求爱.
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2064
这也是我们 约会时的常规
14:19
And finally最后, there were the photos相片.
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最后 轮到照片了
14:22
All of the women妇女 who were popular流行
360
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所有 受欢迎女性
14:24
showed显示 some skin皮肤.
361
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1625
都会 露一些
14:26
They all looked看着 really great,
362
854434
2012
她们 看起来很棒
14:28
which哪一个 turned转身 out to be in sharp尖锐 contrast对比
363
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2778
形成 鲜明对比的
14:31
to what I had uploaded上传.
364
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3293
是我当时 上传的照片
14:34
Once一旦 I had all of this information信息,
365
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掌握了 这些信息之后
14:36
I was able能够 to create创建 a super profile轮廓,
366
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2344
我建立了一个 超级档案
14:38
so it was still me,
367
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1874
我 还是我
14:40
but it was me optimized优化 now for this ecosystem生态系统.
368
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3909
只是 在这个生态系统当中 更优化的我
14:44
And as it turns out, I did a really good job工作.
369
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4850
事实证明 我做得很不错
14:49
I was the most popular流行 person online线上.
370
877134
3056
成了婚恋网 最受欢迎的人
14:52
(Laughter笑声)
371
880190
2519
(笑声)
14:54
(Applause掌声)
372
882709
4214
(掌声)
14:58
And as it turns out, lots and lots of men男人 wanted to date日期 me.
373
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3487
后来 特别特别多男人想和我约会
15:02
So I call my mom妈妈, I call my sister妹妹, I call my grandmother祖母.
374
890410
2406
我又打电话给 妈妈 姐姐 和姥姥
15:04
I'm telling告诉 them about this fabulous极好 news新闻,
375
892816
1831
告诉她们 这个好消息
15:06
and they say, "This is wonderful精彩!
376
894647
1869
她们说 "真棒 !“
15:08
How soon不久 are you going out?"
377
896516
2117
“什么时候开始约会呀?"
15:10
And I said, "Well, actually其实, I'm not going to go out with anybody任何人."
378
898633
2439
然后我说 "嗯 我不会跟任何一个约会的"
15:13
Because remember记得, in my scoring得分 system系统,
379
901072
1937
因为 记得吧 要在计分系统
15:15
they have to reach达到 a minimum最低限度 threshold of 700 points,
380
903009
2334
至少达到700分才行
15:17
and none没有 of them have doneDONE that.
381
905343
2310
这些男士们 都还不够
15:19
They said, "What? You're still being存在 too damn该死的 picky挑剔."
382
907653
2778
她们就说 "什么?你还是太挑剔了"
15:22
Well, not too long after that,
383
910431
1657
然后 没过多久
15:24
I found发现 this guy, Thevenin戴维南,
384
912088
2202
我发现这个人 戴文宁(Thevenin)
15:26
and he said that he was culturally文化 Jewish犹太,
385
914290
2470
他说他 接受犹太风俗
15:28
he said that his job工作 was an arctic北极 baby宝宝 seal密封 hunter猎人,
386
916760
3020
还说他的工作是 猎捕北极小海豹
15:31
which哪一个 I thought was very clever聪明.
387
919780
2564
我觉得 这个说法很有意思
15:34
He talked in detail详情 about travel旅行.
388
922344
2877
他详谈了很多 关于旅行的事
15:37
He made制作 a lot of really interesting有趣 cultural文化 references引用.
389
925221
2313
引用了各种 有趣的文化
15:39
He looked看着 and talked exactly究竟 like what I wanted,
390
927534
3018
他外表和谈吐 都是我想要的
15:42
and immediately立即, he scored进球 850 points.
391
930552
3211
当场就 拿下850分
15:45
It was enough足够 for a date日期.
392
933763
1761
够约会了
15:47
Three weeks later后来, we met会见 up in person
393
935524
2116
三个星期之后 我们见面
15:49
for what turned转身 out to be a 14-hour-long-Hour长 conversation会话
394
937640
3358
谈了足足 14小时
15:52
that went from coffee咖啡 shop to restaurant餐厅
395
940998
2065
从咖啡店 到餐厅
15:55
to another另一个 coffee咖啡 shop to another另一个 restaurant餐厅,
396
943063
2333
到另一家咖啡厅 再到下一家餐厅
15:57
and when he dropped下降 me back off at my house that night
397
945396
1913
那天晚上 他送我回家之后
15:59
I re-scored再拿下 him --
398
947309
1539
我重新评估
16:00
[1,050 points!] --
399
948848
1253
[1,050分!]--
16:02
thought, you know what,
400
950101
1386
看来
16:03
this entire整个 time I haven't没有 been picky挑剔 enough足够.
401
951487
3085
我一直还 不够挑剔
16:06
Well, a year and a half after that,
402
954572
1632
一年半之后
16:08
we were non-cruise非巡航 ship traveling旅行
403
956204
2922
我们去旅游 当然没有坐游船
16:11
through通过 Petra佩特拉, Jordan约旦,
404
959126
2085
在约旦的 佩特拉
16:13
when he got down on his knee膝盖 and proposed建议.
405
961211
3201
他单膝下跪 求婚
16:16
A year after that, we were married已婚,
406
964412
2771
一年之后 我们结婚
16:19
and about a year and a half after that, our daughter女儿,
407
967183
2408
又过了一年半 我们的女儿
16:21
Petra佩特拉, was born天生.
408
969591
1800
佩特拉 出生了
16:23
(Applause掌声)
409
971391
7380
(掌声)
16:30
Obviously明显, I'm having a fabulous极好 life, so --
410
978771
2319
可以看到 我很享受这段精彩人生 不过
16:33
(Laughter笑声) --
411
981090
1428
(笑声)-
16:34
the question is, what does all of this mean for you?
412
982518
2628
问题是 这一切对你有什么意义?
16:37
Well, as it turns out, there is an algorithm算法 for love.
413
985146
3848
事实可以证明 爱有计算规则
16:40
It's just not the ones那些 that we're being存在 presented呈现 with online线上.
414
988994
3696
但不是我们 在网上看到的那些
16:44
In fact事实, it's something that you write yourself你自己.
415
992690
2236
而是 你自己写出来的
16:46
So whether是否 you're looking for a husband丈夫 or a wife妻子
416
994926
2251
所以无论你要 寻觅另一半
16:49
or you're trying to find your passion
417
997177
2062
还是 找回激情
16:51
or you're trying to start开始 a business商业,
418
999239
1474
又或者 要创业
16:52
all you have to really do is figure数字 out your own拥有 framework骨架
419
1000713
3057
只需要 真真切切地 找出自己的框架
16:55
and play by your own拥有 rules规则,
420
1003770
1917
按自己的规则 进行发挥
16:57
and feel free自由 to be as picky挑剔 as you want.
421
1005687
2640
爱多挑剔 就多挑剔
17:00
Well, on my wedding婚礼 day,
422
1008327
1460
最后 在我的婚礼上
17:01
I had a conversation会话 again with my grandmother祖母,
423
1009787
1906
我和姥姥 又谈了一回
17:03
and she said, "All right, maybe I was wrong错误.
424
1011693
2797
她说 "好吧 也许是我错了“
17:06
It looks容貌 like you did come up with
425
1014490
1283
“看来 你确实做了”
17:07
a really, really great system系统.
426
1015773
2016
“一个 很棒很厉害的系统“
17:09
Now, your matzohmatzoh balls.
427
1017789
2935
“可是 你的玛索球”
17:12
They should be fluffy蓬松, not hard."
428
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3131
“该松软些 不能太硬了”
17:15
And I'll take her advice忠告 on that.
429
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1552
这个意见 我赞成
17:17
(Applause掌声)
430
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4602
(掌声)
Translated by J. L. ( a - m e )
Reviewed by xuan wang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Amy Webb - Founder and CEO, Future Today Institute
Amy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.”

Why you should listen

Amy Webb uses data to understand the present and future of humanity, a practice she first developed as a journalist for the Wall Street Journal and Newsweek and has continued as a futurist. She is the head of the Future Today Institute, which researches collisions between technology, society and business — and maps scenarios that are on the horizon. She was named to the Thinkers50 Radar list of the 30 management thinkers most likely to shape the future of how organizations are managed and led.

Webb is on the adjunct faculty at the NYU Stern School of Business, where she teaches a popular MBA-level course on futures forecasting. She is the author of The Signals Are Talking, Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream, which has become the standard text on futures forecasting and explains how to predict and manage technological change. Her book Data: A Love Story tells the tale of how she gamed the online dating system to figure out how to find the love of her life.

More profile about the speaker
Amy Webb | Speaker | TED.com