ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Amy Webb - Founder and CEO, Future Today Institute
Amy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.”

Why you should listen

Amy Webb uses data to understand the present and future of humanity, a practice she first developed as a journalist for the Wall Street Journal and Newsweek and has continued as a futurist. She is the head of the Future Today Institute, which researches collisions between technology, society and business — and maps scenarios that are on the horizon. She was named to the Thinkers50 Radar list of the 30 management thinkers most likely to shape the future of how organizations are managed and led.

Webb is on the adjunct faculty at the NYU Stern School of Business, where she teaches a popular MBA-level course on futures forecasting. She is the author of The Signals Are Talking, Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream, which has become the standard text on futures forecasting and explains how to predict and manage technological change. Her book Data: A Love Story tells the tale of how she gamed the online dating system to figure out how to find the love of her life.

More profile about the speaker
Amy Webb | Speaker | TED.com
TEDSalon NY2013

Amy Webb: How I hacked online dating

艾咪.韋伯: 我如何破解網路交友

Filmed:
7,847,043 views

艾咪.韋伯 (Amy Webb) 曾經在網路交友上失敗過,她喜歡的對象沒有回信給她,而且她的個人資料都吸引到怪人(或更糟的)。所以,像其它數據狂一樣:她開始製作試算表。這是一個關於她如何在網路交友上成功的故事 ─ 充滿挫折、歡笑,和改變生命的結局。
- Founder and CEO, Future Today Institute
Amy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.” Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
So my name名稱 is Amy艾米 Webb韋伯,
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我的名字是艾咪韋伯
00:15
and a few少數 years年份 ago I found發現 myself at the end結束
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幾年前,我發現自己再次走到
00:17
of yet然而 another另一個 fantastic奇妙 relationship關係
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另一段美好戀情的盡頭
00:20
that came來了 burning燃燒 down in a spectacular壯觀 fashion時尚.
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當然最終也壯烈的結束了
00:23
And I thought, you know, what's wrong錯誤 with me?
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接著我想:「我是怎麼了?」
00:26
I don't understand理解 why this keeps保持 happening事件.
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為什麼每段感情總以失敗告終
00:28
So I asked everybody每個人 in my life
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所以我問了我身邊的人
00:30
what they thought.
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聽聽他們的想法
00:32
I turned轉身 to my grandmother祖母,
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我問了我祖母
00:33
who always had plenty豐富 of advice忠告,
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她總是有一堆建議
00:36
and she said, "Stop being存在 so picky挑剔.
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她回答我:「不要這麼挑剔!
00:39
You've got to date日期 around.
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妳得出去約會
00:40
And most importantly重要的,
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最重要的是
00:42
true真正 love will find you when you least最小 expect期望 it."
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真愛總是在不經意時出現」
00:46
Now as it turns out,
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事實上
00:48
I'm somebody who thinks a lot about data數據,
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我是個非常相信根據的人
00:50
as you'll你會 soon不久 find.
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我想你很快就會發現這點
00:52
I am constantly經常 swimming游泳的 in numbers數字
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我的生活跟數字、公式
00:55
and formulas公式 and charts圖表.
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還有圖表脫不了關係
00:56
I also have a very tight-knit綿密 family家庭,
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我有一個非常棒的家庭
00:59
and I'm very, very close with my sister妹妹,
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我和我的姐姐十分親密
01:01
and as a result結果, I wanted to have
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因此,我夢想著能擁有一個
01:02
the same相同 type類型 of family家庭 when I grew成長 up.
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像我家一樣美好的家庭
01:04
So I'm at the end結束 of this bad breakup分手,
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所以我最終是慘烈地分手了
01:06
I'm 30 years年份 old,
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我現在三十歲
01:08
I figure數字 I'm probably大概 going to have
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我認為至少要交往六個月
01:09
to date日期 somebody for about six months個月
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才能夠確定這個人
01:11
before I'm ready準備 to get monogamous一夫一妻制
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是你未來的伴侶
01:13
and before we can sort分類 of cohabitate同居,
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開始同居生活前也需要一點時間
01:15
and we have to have that happen發生 for a while before we can get engaged訂婚.
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同居過一陣子後,才是訂婚
01:18
And if I want to start開始 having children孩子 by the time I'm 35,
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假設我想在35歲時生小孩
01:21
that meant意味著 that I would have had to have been
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代表我必須在
01:23
on my way to marriage婚姻 five years年份 ago.
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五年前開始計劃結婚
01:26
So that wasn't going to work.
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很明顯地,這行不通
01:27
If my strategy戰略 was to least-expect萬萬沒想到 my way
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如果找到真愛的方法是減少期待
01:30
into true真正 love, then the variable變量 that I had
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那唯一的變數
01:32
to deal合同 with was serendipity意外發現.
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就是看緣份了
01:34
In short, I was trying to figure數字 out, well,
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簡單來說,我想搞清楚
01:36
what's the probability可能性 of my finding發現 Mr先生. Right?
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我找到真命天子的機率有多少?
01:40
Well, at the time I was living活的 in the city of Philadelphia費城,
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我住在費城的時候
01:42
and it's a big city, and I figured想通,
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它是個大城市,而且我發現
01:45
in this entire整個 place地點, there are lots of possibilities可能性.
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在這個地方充滿了機會
01:48
So again, I started開始 doing some math數學.
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所以,我又算了一下
01:50
Population人口 of Philadelphia費城: It has 1.5 million百萬 people.
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費城的人口是150萬人
01:54
I figure數字 about half of that are men男人,
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我推估半數是男性
01:55
so that takes the number down to 750,000.
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因此男性至少有75萬名
01:58
I'm looking for a guy between之間 the ages年齡 of 30 and 36,
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我的目標是30到36歲之間的男性
02:01
which哪一個 was only four percent百分 of the population人口,
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大概只佔了百分之四
02:04
so now I'm dealing交易 with the possibility可能性 of 30,000 men男人.
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所以只剩下3萬人
02:07
I was looking for somebody who was Jewish猶太,
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我想要找猶太人
02:08
because that's what I am and that was important重要 to me.
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因為我自己就是,而且這對我很重要
02:11
That's only 2.3 percent百分 of the population人口.
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但他們只佔人口的百分之2.3
02:13
I figure數字 I'm attracted吸引 to maybe one out of 10
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我假設這之中有1/10的人
02:15
of those men男人,
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會喜歡我
02:18
and there was no way I was going
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不過我跟打高爾夫的
02:20
to deal合同 with somebody who was an avid狂熱 golfer高爾夫球手.
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完全合不來
02:22
So that basically基本上 meant意味著 there were 35 men男人 for me
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意思就是說只剩35個人
02:25
that I could possibly或者 date日期
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可能成為我約會的對象
02:28
in the entire整個 city of Philadelphia費城.
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在整個費城!
02:32
In the meantime與此同時, my very large Jewish猶太 family家庭
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同時,在我的猶太大家族中
02:35
was already已經 all married已婚 and well on their way
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所有人都已經結婚
02:38
to having lots and lots of children孩子,
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準備生很多很多小孩
02:40
and I felt like I was under tremendous巨大 peer窺視 pressure壓力
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這更讓我感覺到
02:42
to get my life going already已經.
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必須快點成家的壓力
02:44
So if I have two possible可能 strategies策略 at this point
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所以對此我有
02:46
I'm sort分類 of figuring盤算 out.
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兩個對策
02:47
One, I can take my grandmother's祖母 advice忠告
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一、聽我祖母的話
02:50
and sort分類 of least-expect萬萬沒想到 my way
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不要抱太大期待
02:52
into maybe bumping碰撞 into the one
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以為能在費城150萬人口中
02:55
out of 35 possible可能 men男人 in the entire整個
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與那35個人
02:57
1.5 million-person百萬人 city of Philadelphia費城,
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在路上巧遇
03:01
or I could try online線上 dating約會.
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又或者試試網路交友
03:04
Now, I like the idea理念 of online線上 dating約會,
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現在我比較喜歡網路交友這個方法
03:06
because it's predicated預測 on an algorithm算法,
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因為這可以用算式算出來
03:08
and that's really just a simple簡單 way of saying
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這很非常地簡單
03:10
I've got a problem問題, I'm going to use some data數據,
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當你遇到問題,只要運用一些數據
03:12
run it through通過 a system系統
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透過系統的計算
03:13
and get to a solution.
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最後得到解決方法
03:16
So online線上 dating約會 is the second第二 most popular流行 way
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所以網路交友成了現代人找對象時
03:18
that people now meet遇到 each other,
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第二受歡迎的方法
03:20
but as it turns out, algorithms算法 have been around
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但是計算的方法
03:22
for thousands數千 of years年份 in almost幾乎 every一切 culture文化.
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在每個文化中其實已經存在好幾千年了
03:25
In fact事實, in Judaism猶太教, there were matchmakers媒人
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事實上,猶太教從很久以前開始
03:28
a long time ago, and though雖然
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就有媒人了
03:29
they didn't have an explicit明確的 algorithm算法 per seSE,
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雖然沒有明確的公式
03:32
they definitely無疑 were running賽跑 through通過 formulas公式 in their heads,
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他們一定也在腦裡計算過
03:34
like, is the girl女孩 going to like the boy男孩?
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像是,那女孩會喜歡那男孩嗎?
03:36
Are the families家庭 going to get along沿?
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他們的家人會處得來嗎?
03:38
What's the rabbi拉比 going to say?
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拉比會怎麼想?
(註: 拉比 是猶太人生活宗教上的老師)
03:39
Are they going to start開始 having children孩子 right away?
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他們會不會很快就有孩子?
03:42
And the matchmaker媒人 would sort分類 of think through通過 all of this,
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媒人通常會在腦中想過這些問題後
03:45
put two people together一起, and that would be the end結束 of it.
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把兩人湊成一對
03:47
So in my case案件, I thought,
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我猜想,像我的情形
03:49
well, will data數據 and an algorithm算法
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數據和算式真能夠幫我找到
03:52
lead me to my Prince王子 Charming迷人?
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我的白馬王子嗎?
03:54
So I decided決定 to sign標誌 on.
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我決定註冊網路交友
03:56
Now, there was one small catch抓住.
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這裡有一個小小的插曲
03:57
As I'm signing簽約 on to the various各個 dating約會 websites網站,
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當我在一堆交友網站註冊後
04:00
as it happens發生, I was really, really busy.
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想當然,我變得相當忙
04:02
But that actually其實 wasn't the biggest最大 problem問題.
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但這還不是最大的問題
04:05
The biggest最大 problem問題 is that I hate討厭
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最困擾我的是
04:07
filling填充 out questionnaires問卷調查 of any kind,
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我痛恨填問卷
04:09
and I certainly當然 don't like questionnaires問卷調查
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更不要說那些問卷根本
04:11
that are like Cosmo科斯莫 quizzes測驗.
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就像是心理測驗
04:13
So I just copied複製 and pasted粘貼 from my résumé.
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因此我就直接從履歷複製貼上
04:16
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
04:21
So in the descriptive描述的 part部分 up top最佳,
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在最上方的自我描述那一欄
04:24
I said that I was an award-winning獲獎 journalist記者
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我填上我是個得過獎的記者
04:26
and a future未來 thinker思想家.
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和未來思想家
04:28
When I was asked about fun開玩笑 activities活動 and
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當它問到我的興趣和理想的對象
04:30
my ideal理想 date日期, I said monetization貨幣化
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我回答賺錢
04:33
and fluency流暢 in Japanese日本.
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和流利的日文
04:36
I talked a lot about JavaScriptJavaScript的.
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我寫了許多有關程式語言的事
04:38
So obviously明顯 this was not the best最好 way
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但這似乎不是展現自己最好一面的
04:42
to put my most sexy性感的 foot腳丫子 forward前鋒.
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的好方法
04:45
But the real真實 failure失敗 was that
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但最糟的是
04:47
there were plenty豐富 of men男人 for me to date日期.
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那裡有一堆可以跟我約會的男人
04:50
These algorithms算法 had a sea full充分 of men男人
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這些運算法則提供了一堆
04:52
that wanted to take me out on lots of dates日期 --
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要約我出去的男人
04:55
what turned轉身 out to be truly awful可怕 dates日期.
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雖然那些約會的結果都不太好
04:59
There was this guy Steve史蒂夫, the I.T. guy.
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有一位叫史帝夫的男人,是位科技人
05:01
The algorithm算法 matched匹配 us up
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運算法則把我們湊成一對
05:03
because we share分享 a love of gadgets小工具,
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因為我們都喜歡小玩意
05:05
we share分享 a love of math數學 and data數據 and '80s music音樂,
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還有數學和80年代的音樂
05:09
and so I agreed約定 to go out with him.
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所以我也同意跟他出去
05:11
So Steve史蒂夫 the I.T. guy invited邀請 me out
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史帝夫這位科技人約我去
05:13
to one of Philadelphia's費城 white-table-cloth白表布,
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費城一家的高檔餐廳
05:15
extremely非常 expensive昂貴 restaurants餐館.
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那裡消費非常昂貴
05:17
And we went in, and right off the bat蝙蝠,
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我們到了以後
05:19
our conversation會話 really wasn't taking服用 flight飛行,
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並沒有講到什麼話
05:22
but he was ordering排序 a lot of food餐飲.
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他只是點了很多食物
05:24
In fact事實, he didn't even bother looking at the menu菜單.
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事實上他連餐單都沒瞄過一眼
05:26
He was ordering排序 multiple appetizers開胃菜,
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點了一堆開胃菜
05:28
multiple entrENTRéesES, for me as well,
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一堆主菜,當然也替我點了
05:31
and suddenly突然 there are piles and piles of food餐飲 on our table,
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突然之間,桌上擺滿了食物
05:33
also lots and lots of bottles瓶子 of wine紅酒.
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和一瓶又一瓶的酒
05:36
So we're nearing接近 the end結束 of our conversation會話
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在我們快要沒話講
05:38
and the end結束 of dinner晚餐, and I've decided決定
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也快吃完飯時,我默默想
05:39
Steve史蒂夫 the I.T. guy and I are really just not meant意味著 for each other,
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我們兩個並不適合彼此
05:42
but we'll part部分 ways方法 as friends朋友,
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但我們不會分開的太難看
05:44
when he gets得到 up to go to the bathroom浴室,
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他去廁所的時候
05:47
and in the meantime與此同時 the bill法案 comes to our table.
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服務生將賬單送到桌上
05:50
And listen, I'm a modern現代 woman女人.
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聽好了,我是個現代女性
05:53
I am totally完全 down with splitting分裂 the bill法案.
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當然可以接受各付各的
05:56
But then Steve史蒂夫 the I.T. guy didn't come back. (Gasping喘氣)
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但是史帝夫那位科技人沒有回來
06:00
And that was my entire整個 month's一個月 rent出租.
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那足足是我整個月的房租
06:04
So needless不必要 to say, I was not having a good night.
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不用說,那不是個美好的晚餐
06:08
So I run home, I call my mother母親, I call my sister妹妹,
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所以我跑回家,打給我媽媽和姐姐
06:11
and as I do, at the end結束 of each one of these
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就像每次經歷過一場
06:14
terrible可怕, terrible可怕 dates日期,
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糟糕的約會後一樣
06:16
I regale款待 them with the details細節.
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告訴她們所有細節
06:18
And they say to me,
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她們告訴我
06:20
"Stop complaining抱怨的."
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「不要再抱怨了!」
06:22
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
06:23
"You're just being存在 too picky挑剔."
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「妳就是太挑剔了!」
06:26
So I said, fine, from here on out
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所以我決定從此之後
06:28
I'm only going on dates日期 where I know
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我只去我知道的地方約會
06:29
that there's wi-fi無線上網, and I'm bringing使 my laptop筆記本電腦.
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要有無線網路,我還要帶著筆電
06:31
I'm going to shove it into my bag,
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我會把它塞進我的包包
06:33
and I'm going to have this email電子郵件 template模板,
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我會用這個電子郵件範本
06:35
and I'm going to fill it out and collect蒐集 information信息
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填上空格,收集些資料
06:37
on all these different不同 data數據 points during the date日期
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這樣我就能透過這些資料
06:40
to prove證明 to everybody每個人 that empirically經驗,
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以親身經歷向大家證明
06:42
these dates日期 really are terrible可怕. (Laughter笑聲)
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這些約會有多糟 (笑聲)
06:44
So I started開始 tracking追踪 things like
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我開始注意那些
06:46
really stupid, awkward尷尬, sexual有性 remarks備註;
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笨拙、尷尬、帶有性意味的言論
06:49
bad vocabulary詞彙;
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不當用詞
06:51
the number of times a man forced被迫 me to high-five舉手擊掌 him.
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逼我和他擊掌的次數
06:54
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
06:56
So I started開始 to crunch緊縮 some numbers數字,
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我開始統計這些數字
07:00
and that allowed允許 me to make some correlations相關.
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接著我發現了一些關聯性
07:03
So as it turns out,
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例如說
07:06
for some reason原因, men男人 who drink Scotch蘇格蘭人
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不知道為什麼 喝蘇格蘭威士忌的男人
07:09
reference參考 kinky sex性別 immediately立即.
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總令我聯想到性變態
07:11
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
07:13
Well, it turns out that these
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當然這不代表
07:16
probably大概 weren't bad guys.
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他們真的是壞人
07:17
There were just bad for me.
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他們只是不適合我
07:19
And as it happens發生, the algorithms算法 that were setting設置 us up,
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將我們湊在一起的交友網站
07:23
they weren't bad either.
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也沒有錯
07:24
These algorithms算法 were doing exactly究竟
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它們只是照著
07:26
what they were designed設計 to do,
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一定的公式運作而已
07:27
which哪一個 was to take our user-generated用戶生成的 information信息,
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蒐集使用者的基本資料
07:30
in my case案件, my résumé,
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像是我的履歷表
07:32
and match比賽 it up with other people's人們 information信息.
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和其他人的資料做配對
07:35
See, the real真實 problem問題 here is that,
185
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所以真正的問題是
07:36
while the algorithms算法 work just fine,
186
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1925
運算法則可以正常運作
07:38
you and I don't, when confronted面對
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我們卻作不到
07:40
with blank空白 windows視窗 where we're supposed應該
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當面對需要填入
07:42
to input輸入 our information信息 online線上.
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個人資料的空白視窗時
07:44
Very few少數 of us have the ability能力
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我們之中只有極少數的人
07:46
to be totally完全 and brutally粗暴地 honest誠實 with ourselves我們自己.
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能夠全然地坦白面對
07:50
The other problem問題 is that these websites網站 are asking us
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另一個問題是,交友網站總是問一些問題
07:52
questions問題 like, are you a dog person or a cat person?
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像是,你喜歡狗還是貓?
07:55
Do you like horror恐怖 films影片 or romance浪漫 films影片?
194
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你喜歡恐怖片還是愛情片?
07:58
I'm not looking for a pen鋼筆 pal朋友.
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1910
我又不是要找筆友
08:00
I'm looking for a husband丈夫. Right?
196
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我是要找老公,不是嗎?
08:02
So there's a certain某些 amount of superficiality膚淺 in that data數據.
197
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3139
那裡頭淨是一些膚淺的資料
08:05
So I said fine, I've got a new plan計劃.
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我想說好吧,我有一個新的計劃
08:08
I'm going to keep using運用 these online線上 dating約會 sites網站,
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1998
我會繼續用這些交友網站
08:10
but I'm going to treat對待 them as databases數據庫,
200
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2711
但僅僅是把它當成資料庫
08:12
and rather than waiting等候 for an algorithm算法 to set me up,
201
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另外,比起讓系統替我配對
08:15
I think I'm going to try reverse-engineering逆向工程 this entire整個 system系統.
202
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我決定反向操作這整個系統
08:19
So knowing會心 that there was superficial data數據
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因為在知道它僅靠一些膚淺問題
08:22
that was being存在 used to match比賽 me up with other people,
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幫我找尋適合的對象之後
08:24
I decided決定 instead代替 to ask my own擁有 questions問題.
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我決定自己提出自己的問題
08:27
What was every一切 single possible可能 thing
206
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1638
在我找另一半時
08:28
that I could think of that I was looking for in a mate伴侶?
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會想到哪些條件呢?
08:31
So I started開始 writing寫作 and writing寫作 and writing寫作,
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我開始不停地寫
08:36
and at the end結束, I had amassed聚斂
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最後,我累積了
08:38
72 different不同 data數據 points.
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72個不同的條件
08:41
I wanted somebody was Jew...ishISH,
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2406
我想找猶太人
08:43
so I was looking for somebody who had the same相同
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找一個跟我有相同背景
08:45
background背景 and thoughts思念 on our culture文化,
213
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相同文化觀的人
08:47
but wasn't going to force me to go to shulshul
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1573
但前提是每週五、週六
08:49
every一切 Friday星期五 and Saturday星期六.
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2333
他不會逼我去猶太教會
08:51
I wanted somebody who worked工作 hard,
216
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1590
我想找認真工作的人
08:53
because work for me is extremely非常 important重要,
217
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1884
因為工作對我來說相當重要
08:55
but not too hard.
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不過也不能太過火
08:56
For me, the hobbies愛好 that I have
219
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對我而言,我的嗜好就只是
08:58
are really just new work projects項目 that I've launched推出.
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手頭上正在進行的工作
09:01
I also wanted somebody who not only wanted two children孩子,
221
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3165
我想找個打算生兩個小孩
09:04
but was going to have the same相同 attitude態度 toward parenting育兒 that I do,
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教養觀念和我一樣的人
09:07
so somebody who was going to be totally完全 okay
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一個不反對我們的小孩
09:09
with forcing迫使 our child兒童 to start開始 taking服用 piano鋼琴 lessons教訓 at age年齡 three,
224
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三歲開始學鋼琴
09:12
and also maybe computer電腦 science科學 classes
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如果可能的話
09:16
if we could wrangle爭吵 it.
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還要上電腦課
09:18
So things like that, but I also wanted somebody
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像是這些問題,還有最好是個
09:20
who would go to far-flung遙遠, exotic異國情調 places地方,
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見多識廣的人,旅行過特別的地方
09:22
like Petra佩特拉, Jordan約旦.
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像是佩特拉、約旦
09:23
I also wanted somebody who would weigh稱重
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1505
還有,無論何時
09:25
20 pounds英鎊 more than me at all times,
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無論我多重
09:27
regardless而不管 of what I weighed稱重.
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他都必須比我重個20磅
09:28
(Laughter笑聲)
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2402
(笑聲)
09:31
So I now have these 72 different不同 data數據 points,
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現在,我有72個條件
09:34
which哪一個, to be fair公平, is a lot.
235
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2046
老實說,實在很多
09:36
So what I did was, I went through通過
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我看了看那張清單
09:37
and I prioritized優先 that list名單.
237
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1822
排出優先順序
09:39
I broke打破 it into a top最佳 tier一線 and a second第二 tier一線 of points,
238
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我把整份清單分為兩部分
09:43
and I ranked排名 everything starting開始 at 100
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我將每樣條件從100分開始打分數
09:46
and going all the way down to 91,
240
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1980
最低91分
09:48
and listing清單 things like I was looking for somebody who was really smart聰明,
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3240
並且寫下具體條件,像是聰明
09:51
who would challenge挑戰 and stimulate刺激 me,
242
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1712
能夠挑戰和激勵我
09:53
and balancing平衡 that with a second第二 tier一線
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跟第二部分的條件
09:55
and a second第二 set of points.
244
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做平衡
09:57
These things were also important重要 to me
245
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1405
這些條件對我而言當然也很重要
09:59
but not necessarily一定 deal-breakers交易斷路器.
246
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但是並沒有那麼絕對
10:04
So once一旦 I had all this doneDONE,
247
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1421
在我完成之後
10:05
I then built內置 a scoring得分 system系統,
248
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1809
我建立了一個記分系統
10:07
because what I wanted to do
249
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2623
因為我想做的
10:09
was to sort分類 of mathematically數學 calculate計算
250
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1850
就像是數學計算
10:11
whether是否 or not I thought the guy that I found發現 online線上
251
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2506
計算出我在網路上找到的這個男人
10:14
would be a match比賽 with me.
252
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1447
是不是適合我
10:15
I figured想通 there would be a minimum最低限度 of 700 points
253
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2443
根據我的記分系統,要達到700分
10:18
before I would agree同意 to email電子郵件 somebody
254
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1546
我才會寫電子郵件給對方
10:19
or respond響應 to an email電子郵件 message信息.
255
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或是回信
10:21
For 900 points, I'd agree同意 to go out on a date日期,
256
609812
2002
900分代表可以跟他出去
10:23
and I wouldn't不會 even consider考慮 any kind of relationship關係
257
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2681
但是不到1,500分的話
10:26
before somebody had crossed越過 the 1,500 point threshold.
258
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我就不會考慮開始一段關係
10:30
Well, as it turns out, this worked工作 pretty漂亮 well.
259
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這方法非常的成功
10:33
So I go back online線上 now.
260
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1809
因此,我從新回到網路世界
10:35
I found發現 JewishdocJewishdoc57
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2755
我找到Jewishdoc57
10:38
who's誰是 incredibly令人難以置信 good-looking好看, incredibly令人難以置信 well-spoken說得好,
262
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2937
他長的很帥,很會說話
10:41
he had hiked上調 Mt公噸. Fuji富士,
263
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1718
他爬過富士山
10:42
he had walked along沿 the Great Wall.
264
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1742
走過長城
10:44
He likes喜歡 to travel旅行 as long as it doesn't involve涉及 a cruise巡航 ship.
265
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3116
只要不是搭郵輪,他喜歡旅遊
10:47
And I thought, I've doneDONE it!
266
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2738
我心想,我做到了!
10:50
I've cracked破解 the code.
267
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2064
我破解了
10:52
I have just found發現 the Jewish猶太 Prince王子 Charming迷人
268
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3770
我找到我夢想中美滿家庭
10:56
of my family's家庭的 dreams.
269
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2218
的猶太王子
10:58
There was only one problem問題:
270
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2156
只有一個問題
11:00
He didn't like me back.
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他並不喜歡我
11:03
And I guess猜測 the one variable變量 that I haven't沒有 considered考慮
272
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3086
我想我忘了還有一個變數
11:06
is the competition競爭.
273
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1893
競爭
11:08
Who are all of the other women婦女
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在這些交友網站上的其他女人
11:10
on these dating約會 sites網站?
275
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2445
她們是誰?
11:12
I found發現 SmileyGirlSmileyGirl1978.
276
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3704
我找到SmileyGirl1978
11:16
She said she was a "fun開玩笑 girl女孩 who is Happy快樂 and Outgoing傳出."
277
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2829
她表示自己是個風趣外向的女孩
11:19
She listed上市 her job工作 as teacher老師.
278
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1442
她的工作欄寫著老師
11:20
She said she is "silly愚蠢, nice不錯 and friendly友善."
279
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2606
她說自己傻傻的、親切好相處
11:23
She likes喜歡 to make people laugh "alot很多."
280
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2449
喜歡逗人笑
11:25
At this moment時刻 I knew知道, clicking點擊 after profile輪廓
281
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2442
這瞬間,我懂了
11:28
after profile輪廓 after profile輪廓 that looked看著 like this,
282
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2051
看了一個又一個類似這樣的資料後
11:30
that I needed需要 to do some market市場 research研究.
283
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2176
我想我必須做些市場調查
11:32
So I created創建 10 fake male profiles型材.
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3280
因此我註冊了10個假的男性帳號
11:35
Now, before I lose失去 all of you --
285
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2944
在你們準備要唾棄我之前
11:38
(Laughter笑聲) --
286
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1753
(笑聲)
11:40
understand理解 that I did this
287
688475
3588
我必須澄清我這樣做
11:44
strictly嚴格 to gather收集 data數據
288
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2137
純粹只是為了蒐集
11:46
about everybody每個人 else其他 in the system系統.
289
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1748
這個系統裡其他人的資料
11:47
I didn't carry攜帶 on crazy Catfish-style鯰魚式 relationships關係 with anybody任何人.
290
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4195
我沒有戲弄任何人
11:52
I really was just scraping their data數據.
291
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2013
我真的只是蒐集資料
11:54
But I didn't want everybody's每個人的 data數據.
292
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1968
不過我並不需要所有人的
11:56
I only wanted data數據 on the women婦女
293
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1883
我只需要那些
11:58
who were going to be attracted吸引
294
706007
1564
會喜歡上
11:59
to the type類型 of man that I really, really wanted to marry結婚. (Laughter笑聲)
295
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3234
我想嫁的男人的那些女人 (笑聲)
12:02
When I released發布 these men男人 into the wild野生,
296
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3595
我剛開始用這些假帳號時
12:06
I did follow跟隨 some rules規則.
297
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1302
我遵守了一些規則
12:07
So I didn't reach達到 out to any woman女人 first.
298
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2140
所以一開始,我沒和任何女人主動聯繫
12:09
I just waited等待 to see who these profiles型材 were going to attract吸引,
299
717842
2921
我想看這些假帳號能吸引到什麼樣的人
12:12
and mainly主要 what I was looking at was two different不同 data數據 sets.
300
720763
3371
我將它分為兩組數據組
12:16
So I was looking at qualitative定性 data數據,
301
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1538
我觀察特性類的數據
12:17
so what was the humor幽默, the tone,
302
725672
1949
找出這些女人在幽默感、語調
12:19
the voice語音, the communication通訊 style樣式
303
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1562
聲音和溝通方式方面
12:21
that these women婦女 shared共享 in common共同?
304
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1850
有哪些共同點
12:23
And also quantitative data數據,
305
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1283
另外那些量化的數據
12:24
so what was the average平均 length長度 of their profile輪廓,
306
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2338
像是個人檔案的平均長度
12:26
how much time was spent花費 between之間 messages消息?
307
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2235
傳訊息時花了多少時間
12:28
What I was trying to get at here was
308
736889
1681
我想知道的是
12:30
that I figured想通 in person,
309
738570
1925
假使我也這麼做了
12:32
I would be just as competitive競爭的
310
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1410
我就會跟SmileyGirl1978
12:33
as a SmileyGirlSmileyGirl1978.
311
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2065
一樣受歡迎
12:35
I wanted to figure數字 out how to maximize最大化
312
743970
1900
我想試著將我的個人檔案
12:37
my own擁有 profile輪廓 online線上.
313
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2940
發揮最大效益
12:40
Well, one month later後來,
314
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1727
一個月後
12:42
I had a lot of data數據, and I was able能夠 to do another另一個 analysis分析.
315
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3753
我蒐集到許多數據作分析
12:46
And as it turns out, content內容 matters事項 a lot.
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結果是,內容很重要
12:49
So smart聰明 people tend趨向 to write a lot --
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聰明的人通常都寫很長
12:51
3,000, 4,000,
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三四千字
12:53
5,000 words about themselves他們自己,
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甚至5千字
12:55
which哪一個 may可能 all be very, very interesting有趣.
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而且內容十分有趣
12:57
The challenge挑戰 here, though雖然, is that
321
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困難點在
12:58
the popular流行 men男人 and women婦女
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這些受歡迎的男人和女人
13:00
are sticking癥結 to 97 words on average平均
323
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平均都只打97個字
13:03
that are written書面 very, very well,
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當然也寫得很好
13:05
even though雖然 it may可能 not seem似乎 like it all the time.
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雖然有些看起來像假的
13:08
The other sort分類 of hallmark特點 of the people who do this well
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另一個特點是
13:10
is that they're using運用 non-specific非特異性 language語言.
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他們絕不會寫的很具體
13:12
So in my case案件, you know,
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以我的例子來說
13:14
"The English英語 Patient患者" is my most favorite喜愛 movie電影 ever,
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我最喜歡的電影是「英倫情人」
13:17
but it doesn't work to use that in a profile輪廓,
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但我絕不能將它寫在我的資料上
13:21
because that's a superficial data數據 point,
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因為那樣會太具體了
13:22
and somebody may可能 disagree不同意 with me
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有人可能因為不喜歡那部電影
13:24
and decide決定 they don't want to go out with me
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就拒絕跟我出去
13:25
because they didn't like sitting坐在 through通過 the three-hour三小時 movie電影.
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因為他們對坐三個小時看一部電影沒興趣
13:28
Also, optimistic樂觀 language語言 matters事項 a lot.
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另外,正面的字眼非常重要
13:30
So this is a word cloud
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這是文字雲
13:32
highlighting突出 the most popular流行 words that were used
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顯示出那些受歡迎的女人
13:34
by the most popular流行 women婦女,
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常用的字
13:36
words like "fun開玩笑" and "girl女孩" and "love."
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像是"有趣"、"女孩"、"愛"
13:38
And what I realized實現 was not that I had
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然而我意識到的
13:40
to dumb down my own擁有 profile輪廓.
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並不是降低我個人檔案的水準
13:42
Remember記得, I'm somebody who said
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還記得嗎,我說過我是
13:43
that I speak說話 fluent流利 Japanese日本 and I know JavaScriptJavaScript的
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能說一口流利日文和懂得程式語言的人
13:46
and I was okay with that.
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我覺得這很好啊
13:48
The difference區別 is that it's about being存在 more approachable親切
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重點是要讓自己變得容易親近些
13:51
and helping幫助 people understand理解
346
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使其他人了解
13:53
the best最好 way to reach達到 out to you.
347
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如何與你接觸
13:55
And as it turns out, timing定時 is also really, really important重要.
348
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時間點也相當重要
13:57
Just because you have access訪問
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你有了某人的電話號碼
13:59
to somebody's某人的 mobile移動 phone電話 number
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又或者是
14:01
or their instant瞬間 message信息 account帳戶
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他們的即時通訊軟體帳號
14:03
and it's 2 o'clock in the morning早上 and you happen發生 to be awake甦醒,
352
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即時你清晨2點還醒着
14:05
doesn't mean that that's a good time to communicate通信 with those people.
353
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也不應該在這個時間跟那些人聯絡
14:08
The popular流行 women婦女 on these online線上 sites網站
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交友網站上這些受歡迎的女人
14:11
spend an average平均 of 23 hours小時
355
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花在交談上的時間
14:13
in between之間 each communication通訊.
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每段平均約23小時
14:15
And that's what we would normally一般 do
357
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通常我們追求某人的時候
14:17
in the usual通常 process處理 of courtship求愛.
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也都是這樣的
14:19
And finally最後, there were the photos相片.
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最後是照片
14:22
All of the women婦女 who were popular流行
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受歡迎的女人
14:24
showed顯示 some skin皮膚.
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每個都會露些肉
14:26
They all looked看著 really great,
362
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2012
她們看起來都很美
14:28
which哪一個 turned轉身 out to be in sharp尖銳 contrast對比
363
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和我上傳的照片就形成
14:31
to what I had uploaded上傳.
364
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極大的對比
14:34
Once一旦 I had all of this information信息,
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當我擁有了這些資訊之後
14:36
I was able能夠 to create創建 a super profile輪廓,
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我就能作出一個「超級檔案」
14:38
so it was still me,
367
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這還是我
14:40
but it was me optimized優化 now for this ecosystem生態系統.
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但這是在這個生態圈下最佳化後的我
14:44
And as it turns out, I did a really good job工作.
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4850
結果顯示,我成功了
14:49
I was the most popular流行 person online線上.
370
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我是網路上最有名的人
14:52
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
14:54
(Applause掌聲)
372
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4214
(掌聲)
14:58
And as it turns out, lots and lots of men男人 wanted to date日期 me.
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有數不清的男人想約我出去
15:02
So I call my mom媽媽, I call my sister妹妹, I call my grandmother祖母.
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所以我打電話給我媽、我姐姐還有祖母
15:04
I'm telling告訴 them about this fabulous極好 news新聞,
375
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我告訴她們這個好消息
15:06
and they say, "This is wonderful精彩!
376
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1869
她們說:「這真是太棒了!」
15:08
How soon不久 are you going out?"
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「妳什麼時候要去約會?」
15:10
And I said, "Well, actually其實, I'm not going to go out with anybody任何人."
378
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我回答:「事實上,我不會跟任何人出去」
15:13
Because remember記得, in my scoring得分 system系統,
379
901072
1937
記得嗎?在我的記分系統
15:15
they have to reach達到 a minimum最低限度 threshold of 700 points,
380
903009
2334
他們至少要拿到700分
15:17
and none沒有 of them have doneDONE that.
381
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2310
但沒有一個人達到這個標準
15:19
They said, "What? You're still being存在 too damn該死的 picky挑剔."
382
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2778
她們說:「什麼?妳怎麼還是這麼挑剔」
15:22
Well, not too long after that,
383
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1657
但在不久之後
15:24
I found發現 this guy, Thevenin戴維南,
384
912088
2202
我遇見了戴維寧
15:26
and he said that he was culturally文化 Jewish猶太,
385
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2470
他說他文化上屬於猶太文化
15:28
he said that his job工作 was an arctic北極 baby寶寶 seal密封 hunter獵人,
386
916760
3020
他說他的工作是北極小海豹獵人
15:31
which哪一個 I thought was very clever聰明.
387
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我覺得很妙
15:34
He talked in detail詳情 about travel旅行.
388
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他寫了很多關於旅行的事
15:37
He made製作 a lot of really interesting有趣 cultural文化 references引用.
389
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2313
舉了許多有趣的文化差異的例子
15:39
He looked看著 and talked exactly究竟 like what I wanted,
390
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3018
他的長相和說話的方式都是我喜歡的型
15:42
and immediately立即, he scored進球 850 points.
391
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3211
當然,他馬上就得了850分
15:45
It was enough足夠 for a date日期.
392
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1761
850分已經足夠出去約會
15:47
Three weeks later後來, we met會見 up in person
393
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2116
三個禮拜之後,我們見面了
15:49
for what turned轉身 out to be a 14-hour-long-Hour長 conversation會話
394
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3358
我們聊了14個小時
15:52
that went from coffee咖啡 shop to restaurant餐廳
395
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2065
從咖啡廳到餐廳
15:55
to another另一個 coffee咖啡 shop to another另一個 restaurant餐廳,
396
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2333
又從另一家咖啡廳到另一間餐廳
15:57
and when he dropped下降 me back off at my house that night
397
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1913
當他送我回家時
15:59
I re-scored再拿下 him --
398
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1539
我重新為他打了分數
16:00
[1,050 points!] --
399
948848
1253
「1050分!」
16:02
thought, you know what,
400
950101
1386
你知道嗎?
16:03
this entire整個 time I haven't沒有 been picky挑剔 enough足夠.
401
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3085
這次我一點都不挑剔
16:06
Well, a year and a half after that,
402
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1632
一年半後
16:08
we were non-cruise非巡航 ship traveling旅行
403
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我們去了佩特拉、約旦
16:11
through通過 Petra佩特拉, Jordan約旦,
404
959126
2085
當然,不是搭郵輪
16:13
when he got down on his knee膝蓋 and proposed建議.
405
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當時他跪下,向我求婚
16:16
A year after that, we were married已婚,
406
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2771
一年後,我們結婚了
16:19
and about a year and a half after that, our daughter女兒,
407
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2408
那之後一年半,我們的女兒佩特拉
16:21
Petra佩特拉, was born天生.
408
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1800
出生了
16:23
(Applause掌聲)
409
971391
7380
(掌聲)
16:30
Obviously明顯, I'm having a fabulous極好 life, so --
410
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顯然,我現在過著很幸福的生活,所以...
16:33
(Laughter笑聲) --
411
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1428
(笑聲)
16:34
the question is, what does all of this mean for you?
412
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2628
問題是,這些對你而言是什麼?
16:37
Well, as it turns out, there is an algorithm算法 for love.
413
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3848
這是一個為愛訂做的運算法則
16:40
It's just not the ones那些 that we're being存在 presented呈現 with online線上.
414
988994
3696
這不只是我們在網路上看起來的樣子
16:44
In fact事實, it's something that you write yourself你自己.
415
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2236
是你怎麼形容你自己
16:46
So whether是否 you're looking for a husband丈夫 or a wife妻子
416
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2251
所以,無論你是在找另一半
16:49
or you're trying to find your passion
417
997177
2062
找尋你的熱情
16:51
or you're trying to start開始 a business商業,
418
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1474
或是嘗試創業
16:52
all you have to really do is figure數字 out your own擁有 framework骨架
419
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3057
你需要做的是找出你自己的原則
16:55
and play by your own擁有 rules規則,
420
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1917
照你的規則來
16:57
and feel free自由 to be as picky挑剔 as you want.
421
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愛怎麼挑剔就怎麼挑剔
17:00
Well, on my wedding婚禮 day,
422
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1460
我結婚那天
17:01
I had a conversation會話 again with my grandmother祖母,
423
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1906
我跟我的祖母談了一下
17:03
and she said, "All right, maybe I was wrong錯誤.
424
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2797
她說:「好吧,我也許是錯的」
17:06
It looks容貌 like you did come up with
425
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1283
「看來妳真的發明出
17:07
a really, really great system系統.
426
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2016
一個非常好的系統」
17:09
Now, your matzohmatzoh balls.
427
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2935
「不過妳的瑪索球 (註:猶太丸子)
17:12
They should be fluffy蓬鬆, not hard."
428
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3131
口感應該是鬆軟的,不應該是硬的」
17:15
And I'll take her advice忠告 on that.
429
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這次我會聽她的話了
17:17
(Applause掌聲)
430
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(掌聲)
Translated by Wen-Hsin (Willy) Feng
Reviewed by Kuo-Hsien Chiang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Amy Webb - Founder and CEO, Future Today Institute
Amy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.”

Why you should listen

Amy Webb uses data to understand the present and future of humanity, a practice she first developed as a journalist for the Wall Street Journal and Newsweek and has continued as a futurist. She is the head of the Future Today Institute, which researches collisions between technology, society and business — and maps scenarios that are on the horizon. She was named to the Thinkers50 Radar list of the 30 management thinkers most likely to shape the future of how organizations are managed and led.

Webb is on the adjunct faculty at the NYU Stern School of Business, where she teaches a popular MBA-level course on futures forecasting. She is the author of The Signals Are Talking, Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream, which has become the standard text on futures forecasting and explains how to predict and manage technological change. Her book Data: A Love Story tells the tale of how she gamed the online dating system to figure out how to find the love of her life.

More profile about the speaker
Amy Webb | Speaker | TED.com