ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Anne Milgram - Criminal justice reformer
Anne Milgram is committed to using data and analytics to fight crime.

Why you should listen

Anne Milgram is focused on reforming systems through smart data, analytics and technology. She is currently a Professor of Practice and Distinguished Scholar in Residence at New York University School of Law, where she is building a Criminal Justice Innovation Lab, dedicated to using data and technology to transform the American criminal justice system. She also teaches seminars on criminal justice policy and human trafficking. Milgram began her career as a criminal prosecutor, serving in state, local and federal prosecution offices.  She then became the Attorney General of the State of New Jersey, where she served as the Chief Law Enforcement Officer for the State and oversaw the Camden Police Department.

Though her work, Milgram seeks to bring the best of the modern world -- data, technology and analytics -- to bear in an effort to transform outdated systems and practices. Milgram is centered on creating a paradigm shift in how we think about innovation and reform in the criminal justice system and beyond.

Milgram graduated summa cum laude from Rutgers University and holds a Master of Philosophy in social and political theory from the University of Cambridge. She received her law degree from New York University School of Law.

More profile about the speaker
Anne Milgram | Speaker | TED.com
TED@BCG San Francisco

Anne Milgram: Why smart statistics are the key to fighting crime

安妮 米尔格拉姆: 为什么智能统计数据是打击犯罪的关键

Filmed:
1,034,735 views

当安妮米尔格拉姆2007年出任新泽西州的司法部长之时,很快便发现了某些惊人的事实:她的团队不仅对蹲监狱的人不甚了解,而且也无法确定他们所作的判决是否真正加强了公众安全。因此,她展开了一次鼓舞人心的探索,即将数据分析与统计分析应用到美国刑事司法体系当中。
- Criminal justice reformer
Anne Milgram is committed to using data and analytics to fight crime. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
In 2007, I became成为 the attorney律师 general一般
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2007年,我担任了新泽西州的
00:15
of the state of New Jersey新泽西.
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司法部长。
00:17
Before that, I'd been a criminal刑事 prosecutor原告,
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在那之前,我曾是一名刑事检察官,
00:19
first in the Manhattan曼哈顿 district attorney's律师 office办公室,
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先是在曼哈顿地区检查官办公室,
00:22
and then at the United联合的 States状态 Department of Justice正义.
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后来是在国家司法部。
00:24
But when I became成为 the attorney律师 general一般,
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但是在担任司法部长之后,
00:26
two things happened发生 that changed
the way I see criminal刑事 justice正义.
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发生了两件事让我改变了对刑事司法的看法
00:30
The first is that I asked what I thought
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第一个是我提出我所认为的
00:32
were really basic基本 questions问题.
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很基本的问题。
00:35
I wanted to understand理解 who we were arresting逮捕,
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我想要了解我们逮捕的是什么人,
00:37
who we were charging充电,
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我们指控的是什么人,
00:39
and who we were putting in our nation's国家 jails监狱
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还有我们是将什么样的人关进看守所
00:41
and prisons监狱.
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和监狱。
00:43
I also wanted to understand理解
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我也想要了解
00:44
if we were making制造 decisions决定
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我们所做的决定是否
00:46
in a way that made制作 us safer更安全.
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会让民众更加安全。
00:48
And I couldn't不能 get this information信息 out.
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但我无法获取这类信息
00:51
It turned转身 out that most big criminal刑事 justice正义 agencies机构
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原来多数大型刑事司法机构
00:55
like my own拥有
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就像我工作的地方
00:56
didn't track跟踪 the things that matter.
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他们并没有对真正重要的事情进行持续的跟踪调查和记录。
00:58
So after about a month of being存在 incredibly令人难以置信 frustrated受挫,
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所以经历了约一个月的异常沮丧之后,
01:02
I walked down into a conference会议 room房间
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我走进一个会议室
01:04
that was filled填充 with detectives侦探
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满屋都是探员
01:06
and stacks and stacks of case案件 files,
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和成堆成堆的案件档案,
01:08
and the detectives侦探 were sitting坐在 there
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探员们坐在那里
01:10
with yellow黄色 legal法律 pads taking服用 notes笔记.
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用黄色便笺簿作着笔记。
01:12
They were trying to get the information信息
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他们试图获取的信息
01:13
I was looking for
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就是我一直在寻找的
01:15
by going through通过 case案件 by case案件
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通过逐个分析
01:17
for the past过去 five years年份.
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过去的五年间的所有案件。
01:19
And as you can imagine想像,
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你可以想象
01:20
when we finally最后 got the results结果, they weren't good.
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我们终于得出的结果并不是很理想。
01:23
It turned转身 out that we were doing
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原来我们一直在做
01:25
a lot of low-level低级别 drug药物 cases
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很多低级的毒品案件
01:27
on the streets街道 just around the corner
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就在拐角处的街道上
01:28
from our office办公室 in Trenton特伦顿.
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离我们在特伦顿的办公室不远。
01:30
The second第二 thing that happened发生
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第二件事是
01:32
is that I spent花费 the day in the Camden卡姆登,
New Jersey新泽西 police警察 department.
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我在卡姆登的新泽西州警察局耗了一天。
01:35
Now, at that time, Camden卡姆登, New Jersey新泽西,
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当时,新泽西州的卡姆登
01:37
was the most dangerous危险 city in America美国.
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是美国最危险的城市。
01:40
I ran the Camden卡姆登 Police警察
Department because of that.
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我跑了一趟卡姆登警察局就是因为这个原因。
01:44
I spent花费 the day in the police警察 department,
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我在警察局待了一整天,
01:46
and I was taken采取 into a room房间
with senior前辈 police警察 officials官员,
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被带到了一个高级警官待的房间,
01:49
all of whom were working加工 hard
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那里所有人都在努力工作
01:50
and trying very hard to reduce减少 crime犯罪 in Camden卡姆登.
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并很努力的试图减少卡姆登的犯罪活动
01:54
And what I saw in that room房间,
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在那个房间里,
01:55
as we talked about how to reduce减少 crime犯罪,
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当我们谈到如何减少犯罪,
01:58
were a series系列 of officers长官 with a
lot of little yellow黄色 sticky notes笔记.
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有很多拿着小小的黄色便笺的警官。
02:01
And they would take a yellow黄色 sticky
and they would write something on it
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他们会揭下一张黄色便笺,在上面写点东西
02:04
and they would put it up on a board.
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然后把它贴在板儿上。
02:06
And one of them said,
"We had a robbery抢劫 two weeks ago.
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其中一个警官说,“我们有一宗劫案发生在两个星期前
02:08
We have no suspects犯罪嫌疑人."
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但没发现疑犯。”
02:10
And another另一个 said, "We had a shooting射击 in this neighborhood邻里 last week. We have no suspects犯罪嫌疑人."
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另一个说:“上周在这附近发生了一场枪击事件,没发现疑犯”
02:15
We weren't using运用 data-driven数据驱动 policing治安.
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我们未曾使用过数据分析来维持治安。
02:18
We were essentially实质上 trying to fight斗争 crime犯罪
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我们基本上在试图
02:20
with yellow黄色 Post-it发表它 notes笔记.
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用黄色便利签打击犯罪。
02:22
Now, both of these things made制作 me realize实现
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这两件事让我意识到
02:24
fundamentally从根本上 that we were failing失败.
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从根本上说,我们过去一直表现欠佳。
02:28
We didn't even know who was
in our criminal刑事 justice正义 system系统,
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我们甚至不知道有谁涉及到刑事犯罪,
02:31
we didn't have any data数据 about
the things that mattered要紧,
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我们没有相关重要事件的任何数据,
02:34
and we didn't share分享 data数据 or use analytics分析
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我们未曾共享数据,使用分析技术
02:36
or tools工具 to help us make better decisions决定
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或分析工具,以帮助我们做出更好地判断
02:39
and to reduce减少 crime犯罪.
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并减少犯罪。
02:41
And for the first time, I started开始 to think
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我第一次开始思考
02:43
about how we made制作 decisions决定.
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我们是如何作出决定的。
02:45
When I was an assistant助理 D.A.,
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当我还是助理地方检察官,
02:46
and when I was a federal联邦 prosecutor原告,
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和联邦检察官的时候,
02:48
I looked看着 at the cases in front面前 of me,
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我看着面前的那些案件,
02:50
and I generally通常 made制作 decisions决定 based基于 on my instinct直觉
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我所做出的决定通常是依据我的直觉
02:52
and my experience经验.
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和我的经验。
02:54
When I became成为 attorney律师 general一般,
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后来我成为司法部长,
02:56
I could look at the system系统 as a whole整个,
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我可以全面的观察整个司法系统
02:57
and what surprised诧异 me is that I found发现
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令人吃惊的是我发现
02:59
that that was exactly究竟 how we were doing it
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我们的这种做法恰恰适用于
03:01
across横过 the entire整个 system系统 --
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整个司法系统 — —
03:03
in police警察 departments部门, in prosecutors's检察官的 offices办事处,
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警察部门,检察官办公室,
03:06
in courts法院 and in jails监狱.
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法庭和监狱。
03:09
And what I learned学到了 very quickly很快
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很快,我了解到
03:11
is that we weren't doing a good job工作.
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我们过去的工作成果并不令人满意。
03:14
So I wanted to do things differently不同.
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所以我想做些改变。
03:16
I wanted to introduce介绍 data数据 and analytics分析
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我想将数据、逻辑分析
03:19
and rigorous严格 statistical统计 analysis分析
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和严格的统计分析
03:21
into our work.
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纳入到我们的工作。
03:22
In short, I wanted to moneyball点球成金 criminal刑事 justice正义.
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总之,我想在刑事司法上做到点球成金。
03:25
Now, moneyball点球成金, as many许多 of you know,
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正如大家所知,点球成金,
03:27
is what the Oakland奥克兰 A's did,
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是奥克兰运动家棒球队的方法,
03:29
where they used smart聪明 data数据 and statistics统计
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他们使用了智能数据和统计学
03:31
to figure数字 out how to pick players玩家
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找出如何挑选球员的办法
03:32
that would help them win赢得 games游戏,
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这将有助于他们赢得比赛,
03:34
and they went from a system系统 that
was based基于 on baseball棒球 scouts侦察兵
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依据一个由棒球侦查员组成的系统
03:37
who used to go out and watch players玩家
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他们频繁的观察球员的表现
03:39
and use their instinct直觉 and experience经验,
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利用他们的直觉和经验,
03:40
the scouts'侦察兵 instincts本能 and experience经验,
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侦查员的直觉和经验,
03:42
to pick players玩家, from one to use
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挑选球员,通过使用
03:44
smart聪明 data数据 and rigorous严格 statistical统计 analysis分析
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智能数据和严格的统计分析
03:47
to figure数字 out how to pick players玩家
that would help them win赢得 games游戏.
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找出挑选球员的办法,这会帮助他们赢得比赛。
03:50
It worked工作 for the Oakland奥克兰 A's,
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奥克兰运动家棒球队就是这样运作的,
03:52
and it worked工作 in the state of New Jersey新泽西.
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这对新泽西州也是适用的。
03:54
We took Camden卡姆登 off the top最佳 of the list名单
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我们已经将卡姆登从
03:56
as the most dangerous危险 city in America美国.
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美国最危险的城市的名单中剔除。
03:58
We reduced减少 murders谋杀 there by 41 percent百分,
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我们减少了41%的谋杀率,
04:01
which哪一个 actually其实 means手段 37 lives生活 were saved保存.
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实际上相当于拯救了37条生命。
04:04
And we reduced减少 all crime犯罪 in the city by 26 percent百分.
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整个城市的犯罪行为减少了26%。
04:08
We also changed the way
we did criminal刑事 prosecutions起诉.
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我们也改变了刑事诉讼的工作方式。
04:11
So we went from doing low-level低级别 drug药物 crimes犯罪
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所以我们从调查低级毒品犯罪案件
04:13
that were outside our building建造
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它们就发生在办公大楼外面
04:15
to doing cases of statewide全州 importance重要性,
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转移到调查全州范围内的重要案件,
04:17
on things like reducing减少 violence暴力
with the most violent暴力 offenders罪犯,
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比如减少暴力罪犯的暴力行为,
04:20
prosecuting控方 street gangs帮派,
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起诉街头帮派,
04:22
gun and drug药物 trafficking贩卖, and political政治 corruption腐败.
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枪支和毒品的不法交易,还有政治腐败。
04:26
And all of this matters事项 greatly非常,
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所有这些事项都很重要,
04:28
because public上市 safety安全 to me
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因为我认为,保证公共安全
04:30
is the most important重要 function功能 of government政府.
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是政府最重要的职能。
04:33
If we're not safe安全, we can't be educated博学,
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如果人身安全无法保证,我们就不能接受教育,
04:35
we can't be healthy健康,
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就不能保持身体健康,
04:36
we can't do any of the other things
we want to do in our lives生活.
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就不能做生活中想要做的任何事。
04:39
And we live生活 in a country国家 today今天
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今天我们生活的国家
04:41
where we face面对 serious严重 criminal刑事 justice正义 problems问题.
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面临着严重的刑事司法问题。
04:44
We have 12 million百万 arrests逮捕 every一切 single year.
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我们每年有1200 万起拘捕行动。
04:48
The vast广大 majority多数 of those arrests逮捕
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绝大多数的拘捕行动
04:50
are for low-level低级别 crimes犯罪, like misdemeanors轻罪,
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是针对低级的犯罪行为,像轻罪,
04:53
70 to 80 percent百分.
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这些占据了70%至80%。
04:55
Less than five percent百分 of all arrests逮捕
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不到5%的拘捕行动
04:57
are for violent暴力 crime犯罪.
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是针对暴力犯罪。
04:58
Yet然而 we spend 75 billion十亿,
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然而,我们每年花费750亿美元,
05:01
that's b for billion十亿,
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以十亿为单位,
05:02
dollars美元 a year on state and local本地 corrections更正 costs成本.
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作为国家和地方的修正成本。
05:06
Right now, today今天, we have 2.3 million百万 people
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此时此刻,有230万人
05:09
in our jails监狱 and prisons监狱.
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被监禁在看守所和监狱里。
05:11
And we face面对 unbelievable难以置信的 public上市 safety安全 challenges挑战
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我们在公共安全方面面临着惊人的挑战
05:14
because we have a situation情况
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因为现在的形势是
05:16
in which哪一个 two thirds三分之二 of the people in our jails监狱
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监狱中有三分之二的人
05:18
are there waiting等候 for trial审讯.
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在那里等待审判。
05:20
They haven't没有 yet然而 been convicted被定罪 of a crime犯罪.
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他们至今还没有被判定有罪。
05:22
They're just waiting等候 for their day in court法庭.
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他们一直等着出庭受审,
05:24
And 67 percent百分 of people come back.
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其中有67%的人会重返社会。
05:28
Our recidivism累犯 rate is amongst其中包括
the highest最高 in the world世界.
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我们是世界上累犯率最高的国家之一。
05:31
Almost几乎 seven in 10 people who are released发布
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几乎每释放10个人就有7个
05:33
from prison监狱 will be rearrested再次被捕
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将会再次被逮捕
05:35
in a constant不变 cycle周期 of crime犯罪 and incarceration监禁.
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这是一个恒定的犯罪和监禁的周期。
05:39
So when I started开始 my job工作 at the Arnold阿诺德 Foundation基础,
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所以,当我开始在阿诺德基金会工作时,
05:41
I came来了 back to looking at a lot of these questions问题,
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回头看了很多这类问题,
05:44
and I came来了 back to thinking思维 about how
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重新思考了我们怎样
05:46
we had used data数据 and analytics分析 to transform转变
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利用数据和分析转变了
05:48
the way we did criminal刑事 justice正义 in New Jersey新泽西.
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新泽西州的刑事司法。
05:51
And when I look at the criminal刑事 justice正义 system系统
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后来我注意到
05:53
in the United联合的 States状态 today今天,
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当今国家的刑事司法系统,
05:54
I feel the exact精确 same相同 way that I did
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我觉得应使用同样的方法
05:56
about the state of New Jersey新泽西 when I started开始 there,
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即首先在新泽西州使用的那种方法,
05:59
which哪一个 is that we absolutely绝对 have to do better,
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毫无疑问我们要做得更好,
06:02
and I know that we can do better.
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而且我知道我们可以做得更好。
06:04
So I decided决定 to focus焦点
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所以我决定将重点集中在
06:05
on using运用 data数据 and analytics分析
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使用数据和分析
06:08
to help make the most critical危急 decision决定
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以帮助作出最关键的判断
06:10
in public上市 safety安全,
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在公共安全方面,
06:12
and that decision决定 is the determination决心
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这一决定是判断
06:14
of whether是否, when someone有人 has been arrested被捕,
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已经被逮捕的某个人,
06:16
whether是否 they pose提出 a risk风险 to public上市 safety安全
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是否会对公共安全构成风险
06:18
and should be detained被拘留,
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而被拘留
06:20
or whether是否 they don't pose提出 a risk风险 to public上市 safety安全
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还是不会对公共安全造成风险
06:22
and should be released发布.
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应被释放。
06:24
Everything that happens发生 in criminal刑事 cases
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刑事案件中发生的一切
06:26
comes out of this one decision决定.
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都出自这一决定。
06:27
It impacts影响 everything.
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它影响了全局。
06:29
It impacts影响 sentencing宣判.
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它影响了判刑。
06:30
It impacts影响 whether是否 someone有人 gets得到 drug药物 treatment治疗.
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它影响到是否有人需要药物治疗。
06:32
It impacts影响 crime犯罪 and violence暴力.
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它影响了犯罪和暴力行为。
06:34
And when I talk to judges法官 around the United联合的 States状态,
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当我同全美众多法官交谈时,
06:36
which哪一个 I do all the time now,
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我现在无时无刻不在做这件事,
06:38
they all say the same相同 thing,
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他们都说着同样的话,
06:40
which哪一个 is that we put dangerous危险 people in jail监狱,
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我们把危险的人关进监狱,
06:43
and we let non-dangerous非危险, nonviolent非暴力 people out.
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把没有危险的人、非暴力的人放出去。
06:47
They mean it and they believe it.
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他们是认真的,他们相信自己所做的。
06:49
But when you start开始 to look at the data数据,
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但当你开始查看那些数据,
06:51
which哪一个, by the way, the judges法官 don't have,
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顺便提一句,那些法官没看过,
06:53
when we start开始 to look at the data数据,
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当我们开始查看数据,
06:55
what we find time and time again,
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我们一次又一次的发现,
06:57
is that this isn't the case案件.
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这不是个案。
06:59
We find low-risk低风险 offenders罪犯,
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我们发现,
07:01
which哪一个 makes品牌 up 50 percent百分 of our
entire整个 criminal刑事 justice正义 population人口,
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占刑事司法总人数的50%的低风险罪犯
07:05
we find that they're in jail监狱.
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被关在监狱里。
07:07
Take Leslie莱斯利 Chew, who was a Texas德州 man
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举个例子,莱斯利丘是德克萨斯州人
07:09
who stole偷了 four blankets毯子 on a cold winter冬季 night.
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在一个寒冷的冬夜偷了四个毯子。
07:12
He was arrested被捕, and he was kept不停 in jail监狱
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他被拘捕,然后被关进监狱
07:15
on 3,500 dollars美元 bail保释,
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需要三千五百美元保释金,
07:17
an amount that he could not afford给予 to pay工资.
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这是一笔他支付不起的金额。
07:20
And he stayed in jail监狱 for eight months个月
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他在监狱里呆了八个月
07:22
until直到 his case案件 came来了 up for trial审讯,
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直到他的案子开庭,
07:24
at a cost成本 to taxpayers纳税人 of more than 9,000 dollars美元.
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共花了纳税人9,000 多美元税款。
07:28
And at the other end结束 of the spectrum光谱,
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在另一个极端,
07:30
we're doing an equally一样 terrible可怕 job工作.
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我们所做的工作也同样糟糕,
07:33
The people who we find
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那些我们抓获的
07:34
are the highest-risk高风险 offenders罪犯,
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高危险罪犯,
07:36
the people who we think have the highest最高 likelihood可能性
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那些被认为一旦释放会有极高的可能性
07:39
of committing提交 a new crime犯罪 if they're released发布,
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再次犯罪的人,
07:41
we see nationally国内 that 50 percent百分 of those people
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在全国范围内,其中的50%
07:44
are being存在 released发布.
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正在回归社会。
07:46
The reason原因 for this is the way we make decisions决定.
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是我们做决定的方式导致的这种结果。
07:49
Judges士师记 have the best最好 intentions意图
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法官怀着善意
07:50
when they make these decisions决定 about risk风险,
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做出这些有风险的决定,
07:52
but they're making制造 them subjectively主观.
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但,是主观的决定。
07:55
They're like the baseball棒球 scouts侦察兵 20 years年份 ago
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他们就像20 年前的棒球侦查员
07:57
who were using运用 their instinct直觉 and their experience经验
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他们凭本能和经验
07:59
to try to decide决定 what risk风险 someone有人 poses姿势.
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试着去判断某个人制造的危险。
08:02
They're being存在 subjective主观,
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他们是主观的,
08:03
and we know what happens发生
with subjective主观 decision决定 making制造,
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我们知道主观决策会导致什么,
08:06
which哪一个 is that we are often经常 wrong错误.
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那就是我们常常犯错。
08:09
What we need in this space空间
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我们需要的是
08:11
are strong强大 data数据 and analytics分析.
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有力的数据和分析。
08:13
What I decided决定 to look for
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我决定寻找
08:15
was a strong强大 data数据 and analytic解析 risk风险 assessment评定 tool工具,
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一个有力的数据分析的风险评估工具,
08:18
something that would let judges法官 actually其实 understand理解
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这个工具会让法官
08:20
with a scientific科学 and objective目的 way
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以科学的客观的方式去了解
08:23
what the risk风险 was that was posed构成
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什么样的风险
08:24
by someone有人 in front面前 of them.
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摆在他们面前。
08:26
I looked看着 all over the country国家,
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我找遍了全国,
08:28
and I found发现 that between之间 five and 10 percent百分
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发现5%至10%的
08:30
of all U.S. jurisdictions司法管辖区
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美国管辖区域
08:31
actually其实 use any type类型 of risk风险 assessment评定 tool工具,
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实际使用了某些类型的风险评估工具,
08:34
and when I looked看着 at these tools工具,
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我查看了这些评估工具之后,
08:35
I quickly很快 realized实现 why.
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很快意识到其中缘由。
08:37
They were unbelievably令人难以置信 expensive昂贵 to administer管理,
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它们应用起来非常昂贵,
08:40
they were time-consuming耗时的,
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非常耗时,
08:42
they were limited有限 to the local本地 jurisdiction管辖权
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它们被限制在地方管辖区域
08:44
in which哪一个 they'd他们会 been created创建.
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因为它们就出自那里。
08:45
So basically基本上, they couldn't不能 be scaled缩放
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因此,基本上,它们不能扩展
08:47
or transferred转入 to other places地方.
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或转移到其他地方。
08:49
So I went out and built内置 a phenomenal非凡的 team球队
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所以我组建了一个出色的团队
08:51
of data数据 scientists科学家们 and researchers研究人员
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由数据科学家和研究人员
08:53
and statisticians统计学家
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还有统计人员组成
08:55
to build建立 a universal普遍 risk风险 assessment评定 tool工具,
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建立一个通用的风险评估工具,
08:58
so that every一切 single judge法官 in
the United联合的 States状态 of America美国
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这样一来,全美的每一个法官
09:00
can have an objective目的, scientific科学 measure测量 of risk风险.
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都可以做一个客观、科学的风险评估。
09:05
In the tool工具 that we've我们已经 built内置,
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在这个已经建立的这个工具里,
09:06
what we did was we collected 1.5 million百万 cases
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我们收集了150 万个案件
09:09
from all around the United联合的 States状态,
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来自美国各地,
09:11
from cities城市, from counties,
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包括城市,县,
09:12
from every一切 single state in the country国家,
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国内的每个州,
09:14
the federal联邦 districts.
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联邦区。
09:16
And with those 1.5 million百万 cases,
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有了那150 万个案例,
09:18
which哪一个 is the largest最大 data数据 set on pretrial预审
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这是美国审判前最大的数据库
09:20
in the United联合的 States状态 today今天,
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截止到今天,
09:22
we were able能够 to basically基本上 find that there were
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我们基本上能够找到
09:23
900-plus-加 risk风险 factors因素 that we could look at
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我们可以查看的九百多个危险因素
09:27
to try to figure数字 out what mattered要紧 most.
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试着找出最重要的问题。
09:30
And we found发现 that there were nine specific具体 things
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我们发现具体有九件事
09:32
that mattered要紧 all across横过 the country国家
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在全国范围内都很重要
09:34
and that were the most highly高度 predictive预测 of risk风险.
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是可预测的最高风险。
09:37
And so we built内置 a universal普遍 risk风险 assessment评定 tool工具.
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于是我们建立了一种通用的风险评估工具。
09:41
And it looks容貌 like this.
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它看起来就像这个。
09:42
As you'll你会 see, we put some information信息 in,
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正如你所看到的,我们把一些信息列在上面,
09:45
but most of it is incredibly令人难以置信 simple简单,
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但大多数都格外简单,
09:47
it's easy简单 to use,
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它使用起来很容易,
09:48
it focuses重点 on things like the
defendant's被告 prior convictions信念,
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它侧重的方面是被告的前科,
09:51
whether是否 they've他们已经 been sentenced判刑 to incarceration监禁,
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他们是否曾被判处监禁,
09:53
whether是否 they've他们已经 engaged订婚 in violence暴力 before,
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他们是否曾被卷入过暴力事件,
09:55
whether是否 they've他们已经 even failed失败 to come back to court法庭.
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他们是否甚至没能回到法庭。
09:58
And with this tool工具, we can predict预测 three things.
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使用此工具,我们可以预测三件事。
10:00
First, whether是否 or not someone有人 will commit承诺
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第一,他们是否会再次犯罪
10:02
a new crime犯罪 if they're released发布.
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如果被释放的话。
10:04
Second第二, for the first time,
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第二,我第一次觉得,
10:05
and I think this is incredibly令人难以置信 important重要,
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这一点非常重要,
10:07
we can predict预测 whether是否 someone有人 will commit承诺
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我们可以预测他们是否会
10:09
an act法案 of violence暴力 if they're released发布.
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进行暴力活动,如果被释放的话。
10:11
And that's the single most important重要 thing
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法官说这是最重要的一件事
10:13
that judges法官 say when you talk to them.
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当你向他们问话的时候。
10:15
And third第三, we can predict预测 whether是否 someone有人
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第三,我们可以预测是否他们
10:16
will come back to court法庭.
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会回到法庭。
10:18
And every一切 single judge法官 in the
United联合的 States状态 of America美国 can use it,
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美国的任何一名法官都可以使用它,
10:22
because it's been created创建 on a universal普遍 data数据 set.
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因为它是由通用的数据库制成的。
10:25
What judges法官 see if they run the risk风险 assessment评定 tool工具
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如果他们使用了这个风险评估工具你就会看到
10:28
is this -- it's a dashboard仪表板.
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这个--一个评分板。
10:30
At the top最佳, you see the New Criminal刑事 Activity活动 Score得分了,
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在顶部的,是新的刑事犯罪活动评分,
10:33
six of course课程 being存在 the highest最高,
273
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1929
六当然是最高分,
10:35
and then in the middle中间 you
see, "Elevated提高的 risk风险 of violence暴力."
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然后在中间你可以看到“增长的暴力风险”
10:37
What that says is that this person
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说的是,这个人
10:39
is someone有人 who has an elevated提高的 risk风险 of violence暴力
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进行暴力行为的概率有所升高
10:41
that the judge法官 should look twice两次 at.
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这是法官应该注意的重点。
10:43
And then, towards the bottom底部,
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然后在底部,
10:44
you see the Failure失败 to Appear出现 Score得分了,
279
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你看到的是未能出庭的分数,
10:46
which哪一个 again is the likelihood可能性
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1392
这也是判断
10:48
that someone有人 will come back to court法庭.
281
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此人会回到法庭的可能性。
10:51
Now I want to say something really important重要.
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现在我想说些非常重要的事。
10:53
It's not that I think we should be eliminating消除
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我不认为应该排除
10:56
the judge's法官 instinct直觉 and experience经验
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法官的直觉和经验
10:58
from this process处理.
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在整个过程中。
10:59
I don't.
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我不这样想。
11:00
I actually其实 believe the problem问题 that we see
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事实上,我相信我们看到的问题
11:02
and the reason原因 that we have
these incredible难以置信 system系统 errors错误,
288
650992
2854
以及系统内出现令人难以置信的错误的原因,
11:05
where we're incarcerating监禁
low-level低级别, nonviolent非暴力 people
289
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也就是我们关押低级、非暴力的人
11:08
and we're releasing释放 high-risk高风险, dangerous危险 people,
290
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3172
我们释放高风险的、危险的人的原因,
11:12
is that we don't have an objective目的 measure测量 of risk风险.
291
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2723
是因为我们没有客观的衡量风险。
11:14
But what I believe should happen发生
292
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1300
但我相信
11:16
is that we should take that
data-driven数据驱动 risk风险 assessment评定
293
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2800
我们应该将这种数据驱动的风险评估
11:18
and combine结合 that with the
judge's法官 instinct直觉 and experience经验
294
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与法官的直觉和经验相结合
11:21
to lead us to better decision决定 making制造.
295
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会使我们做出更好的决策。
11:24
The tool工具 went statewide全州 in Kentucky肯塔基 on July七月 1,
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该评估工具于7月1日在肯塔基州全面推行,
11:28
and we're about to go up in a
number of other U.S. jurisdictions司法管辖区.
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我们还要在许多其他美国司法管辖区内推行。
11:31
Our goal目标, quite相当 simply只是, is that every一切 single judge法官
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我们的目标很简单,就是让全美的每一个法官
11:34
in the United联合的 States状态 will use a data-driven数据驱动 risk风险 tool工具
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都能使用这种数据驱动的风险评估工具
11:36
within the next下一个 five years年份.
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在未来五年内实现。
11:38
We're now working加工 on risk风险 tools工具
301
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我们现在正在研究风险工具
11:39
for prosecutors检察官 and for police警察 officers长官 as well,
302
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3284
以便检察官和警官使用,
11:43
to try to take a system系统 that runs运行 today今天
303
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2700
想要把过去50年不变的系统
11:45
in America美国 the same相同 way it did 50 years年份 ago,
304
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继续运行下去,
11:48
based基于 on instinct直觉 and experience经验,
305
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2097
基于直觉和经验,
11:50
and make it into one that runs运行
306
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1855
并把它变成一种运用
11:52
on data数据 and analytics分析.
307
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数据分析的系统。
11:55
Now, the great news新闻 about all this,
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现在,
11:56
and we have a ton of work left to do,
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我们仍有大量的工作要做,
11:58
and we have a lot of culture文化 to change更改,
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仍要改变相关文化,
12:00
but the great news新闻 about all of it
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但关于这所有一切有个好消息
12:02
is that we know it works作品.
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那就是我们知道这很管用。
12:04
It's why Google谷歌 is Google谷歌,
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这就是为什么数据成就了谷歌,
12:06
and it's why all these baseball棒球 teams球队 use moneyball点球成金
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为什么棒球队会因使用点球成金的方法
12:08
to win赢得 games游戏.
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而打赢比赛。
12:10
The great news新闻 for us as well
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还有一个好消息是
12:12
is that it's the way that we can transform转变
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我们可以用这种方法转变
12:14
the American美国 criminal刑事 justice正义 system系统.
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美国的刑事司法系统。
12:16
It's how we can make our streets街道 safer更安全,
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它可以使我们的周边环境更安全,
12:18
we can reduce减少 our prison监狱 costs成本,
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可以减少我们的监狱花销,
12:21
and we can make our system系统 much fairer更公平
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可以让我们的司法系统更公平
12:23
and more just.
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更公正。
12:24
Some people call it data数据 science科学.
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有人说这是数据科学。
12:26
I call it moneyballingmoneyballing criminal刑事 justice正义.
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我称之为点球成金式刑事司法。
12:29
Thank you.
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谢谢。
12:31
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Yuexin Gao
Reviewed by Liu Xiying

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Anne Milgram - Criminal justice reformer
Anne Milgram is committed to using data and analytics to fight crime.

Why you should listen

Anne Milgram is focused on reforming systems through smart data, analytics and technology. She is currently a Professor of Practice and Distinguished Scholar in Residence at New York University School of Law, where she is building a Criminal Justice Innovation Lab, dedicated to using data and technology to transform the American criminal justice system. She also teaches seminars on criminal justice policy and human trafficking. Milgram began her career as a criminal prosecutor, serving in state, local and federal prosecution offices.  She then became the Attorney General of the State of New Jersey, where she served as the Chief Law Enforcement Officer for the State and oversaw the Camden Police Department.

Though her work, Milgram seeks to bring the best of the modern world -- data, technology and analytics -- to bear in an effort to transform outdated systems and practices. Milgram is centered on creating a paradigm shift in how we think about innovation and reform in the criminal justice system and beyond.

Milgram graduated summa cum laude from Rutgers University and holds a Master of Philosophy in social and political theory from the University of Cambridge. She received her law degree from New York University School of Law.

More profile about the speaker
Anne Milgram | Speaker | TED.com