ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Angel Hsu - Environmental data scientist
Angel Hsu is a professor and data geek who applies data-driven methods to solve challenging environmental issues.

Why you should listen

Angel Hsu is a professor, researcher, writer and speaker who spends much of her time analyzing large datasets to develop policy solutions to the world's most pressing environmental problems, such as climate change and air pollution. As she writes: "I work between the push and pull of data science and public policy, and this passion drives me to explore how new technologies, analytical techniques and communication strategies can improve governance and lead to better environmental outcomes in rapidly developing countries like China."

Hsu is jointly appointed at Yale-NUS in Singapore at Yale's School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. She founded and directed Data-Driven Yale, an international team of interdisciplinary researchers, scientists, programmers and visual designers. Under her direction, Data-Driven Yale works collaboratively with scholars and practitioners around the world to collect, transform and communicate information, creating new knowledge and policy tools designed to make the world greener and healthier. Her work has been published in scientific journals like Nature and Nature Climate Change and featured in media like The Economist and the New York Times.

More profile about the speaker
Angel Hsu | Speaker | TED.com
TED2018

Angel Hsu: How China is (and isn't) fighting pollution and climate change

徐安琪: 中国有没有在对抗环境污染和气候变化

Filmed:
1,767,453 views

中国是世界上最大的污染国——现在也是最大的清洁能源生产国。中国将往何处走,它会如何影响全球环境?数据科学家徐安琪描述了这个人口众多的国度如何通过可替代能源构筑未来——以及如何应对随着其快速工业化带来的环境灾难。
- Environmental data scientist
Angel Hsu is a professor and data geek who applies data-driven methods to solve challenging environmental issues. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
When is seeing眼看 not believing相信?
0
1720
2360
什么时候眼见不实?
00:17
A couple一对 years年份 ago, my friend朋友
sent发送 me this photo照片 from Ürümqimqi,
1
5120
3536
几年前,我朋友给我发了这张
来自乌鲁木齐的照片,
00:20
which哪一个 is the capital首都 of Xinjiang新疆
province in northwest西北 China中国.
2
8680
4096
它是中国西北部新疆省的省会。
00:24
On this particular特定 day,
she couldn't不能 believe her eyes眼睛.
3
12800
3336
在这个特定的日子里,
她无法相信自己的眼睛。
00:28
Checking检查 the quality质量 of the air空气 outside
using运用 this app应用 on her iPadiPad的,
4
16160
4240
用她iPad上这个手机应用
查看外面的空气质量,
00:33
the numbers数字 were telling告诉 her
the air空气 quality质量 was good,
5
21160
3136
数字告诉她空气质量优质,
00:36
one on a scale规模 of 500.
6
24320
1840
在500的范围内质量为1。
00:38
But when she looked看着 outside,
she saw something much different不同.
7
26920
2920
但当她看外面,她看到了
一些很不一样的东西。
00:42
Yes, those are buildings房屋
in the background背景.
8
30800
2096
是的,这些是背景的建筑。
00:44
(Laughter笑声)
9
32920
1320
(笑声)
00:47
But the data数据 were simply只是
not telling告诉 the truth真相
10
35160
2936
但数据只是没有反映
00:50
of what people were seeing眼看 and breathing呼吸,
11
38120
2416
人们看到和呼吸到的真相。
00:52
and it's because they were
failing失败 to measure测量 PM下午2.5,
12
40560
3576
这是因为中国没能监测PM2.5,
00:56
or fine particulate颗粒 pollution污染.
13
44160
2256
或细颗粒污染。
00:58
When PM下午2.5 levels水平
went off the charts图表 in 2012,
14
46440
3896
当2012年PM2.5水平爆表时,
01:02
or "crazy bad," as the US Embassy大使馆
once一旦 described描述 it in a tweet鸣叫,
15
50360
3976
或者“糟糕透了”,正如美国大使馆
在一条推特上所说,
01:06
Chinese中文 denizens娇客 took to social社会 media媒体
16
54360
2176
中国公民使用社交媒体
01:08
and they started开始 to question why it was
that they were seeing眼看 this disconnect断开
17
56560
3656
开始质疑为什么官方空气质量统计数据
01:12
between之间 official官方 air空气 quality质量 statistics统计
18
60240
2016
与他们自己看到和呼吸的
01:14
and what they were seeing眼看
and breathing呼吸 for themselves他们自己.
19
62280
2720
存在这么大的脱节。
01:18
Now, this questioning疑问 has led
20
66400
2136
这个质疑引发了
01:20
to an environmental环境的 awakening唤醒
of sorts排序 in China中国,
21
68560
3416
中国环境意识的觉醒,
01:24
forcing迫使 China's中国的 government政府
to tackle滑车 its pollution污染 problems问题.
22
72000
3560
迫使中国政府解决污染问题。
01:28
Now China中国 has the opportunity机会
to become成为 a global全球 environmental环境的 leader领导.
23
76400
4400
现在中国有机会成为全球环境领袖。
01:34
But the picture图片
that I'll paint涂料 for you today今天
24
82440
2496
但今天我要给你们描绘的画面
01:36
is one that's mixed.
25
84960
1656
要更加混合。
01:38
There are some signs迹象
that are very promising有希望,
26
86640
2736
有一些迹象非常令人鼓舞,
01:41
and there are other trends趋势
that are more troubling令人不安
27
89400
2376
但也有一些令人不安的趋势
01:43
that warrant保证 closer接近 attention注意.
28
91800
1616
需要更值得关注。
01:45
But now let's go back
to the story故事 at hand.
29
93440
2040
现在让我们回到手头的故事。
01:48
I started开始 to witness见证 the beginnings开始
of China's中国的 green绿色 evolution演化
30
96360
3056
我开始见证中国绿色革命的开端,
01:51
when I was a PhD博士 student学生
conducting开展 fieldwork实习 in China中国 in 2011.
31
99440
4856
当2011年我还是一名博士生,
在中国进行实地考察时。
01:56
I traveled旅行 all across横过 the country国家
seeking answers答案 to the question
32
104320
3456
我全国到处行走寻找回答
01:59
that I often经常 got myself
from the skeptical怀疑的 outsider局外人:
33
107800
3496
外部质疑者的怀疑问题:
02:03
What, you mean China中国 is doing
something on the environment环境?
34
111320
2816
什么,你说中国有在做环境相关的事情?
02:06
They have environmental环境的 policies政策?
35
114160
1616
他们有环保政策?
02:07
What policies政策?
36
115800
1200
什么政策?
02:09
At that time, PM下午2.5 data数据
was considered考虑 too politically政治上 sensitive敏感
37
117600
4376
当时,PM2.5被认为政治太敏感,
02:14
and so the government政府
was keeping保持 it secret秘密,
38
122000
2696
于是政府秘而不宣,
02:16
but citizens公民 were becoming变得 aware知道的
of its harmful有害 human人的 health健康 effects效果,
39
124720
4776
但公众开始逐渐意识到它的健康危害,
02:21
and they were demanding严格
greater更大 transparency透明度
40
129520
2096
他们要求政府
02:23
on the part部分 of the government政府.
41
131640
1456
提高透明度。
02:25
I actually其实 started开始 to see some of this
growing生长 evolution演化 and awareness意识 myself
42
133120
4176
事实上,我开始看到这些不断增长
的演变和意识
02:29
cropping种植 up all over China中国.
43
137320
1480
在中国各地不断冒出。
02:31
Department stores商店, for example,
started开始 to market市场 these air空气 purifiers净化器
44
139680
3776
例如,百货商店开始销售空气净化器
02:35
that could filter过滤 out harmful有害 PM下午2.5.
45
143480
2560
用来过滤有害的PM2.5。
02:39
Citizens公民 were also adopting采用 PM下午2.5
as the title标题 of musical音乐 festivals节日.
46
147320
4816
公民也用PM2.5作为音乐节的名字。
02:44
(Laughter笑声)
47
152160
2296
(笑声)
02:46
And then I went to a golf高尔夫球 course课程
in Shenzhen深圳, which哪一个 is in southern南部的 China中国,
48
154480
3496
后来我去了深圳的一个高尔夫球场,
它在中国南方,
02:50
and you can see from this banner旗帜,
they're advertising广告 a retreat撤退 from PM下午2.5.
49
158000
5416
你可以从这条横幅上看到,
他们在宣传这里几乎没有PM2.5。
02:55
Golf高尔夫球 sub-par副 par, but don't
breathe呼吸 sub-par副 par air空气.
50
163440
2440
高尔夫球场低于平均水平,
不要呼吸低标准的空气。
02:59
And then Shanghai's上海的
Environmental环境的 Protection保护 Bureau
51
167360
2416
然后是上海的环境保护局
决定创建一个以空气质量指数命名的吉祥物
03:01
decided决定 to create创建 a mascot吉祥物
named命名 after the air空气 quality质量 index指数
52
169800
4576
03:06
to better communicate通信
the air空气 quality质量 data数据 to its people.
53
174400
3240
来更好地跟民众沟通空气质量指数。
03:10
I call her AQI空气质量 Girl女孩,
54
178440
1936
我叫她为AQI女孩(空气质量指数女孩),
03:12
and her expression表达 and hair头发 color颜色 changes变化
depending根据 on the quality质量 of air空气 outside.
55
180400
4200
她的表情和头发的颜色会随着
外面空气的质量而变化。
03:17
Five years年份 later后来 and she's still
the mostly大多 smiling微笑 face面对
56
185520
3656
五年后,上海空气质量在大部分情况下
03:21
of Shanghai's上海的 air空气 quality质量.
57
189200
1360
都是微笑面孔。
03:23
And then in 2015,
58
191640
1696
然后在2015年,
03:25
former前任的 CCTV央视 reporter记者 Chai Jing
59
193360
2376
中央电视台前记者柴静
03:27
created创建 this documentary记录
called "Under the Dome拱顶."
60
195760
2560
制作了纪录片《穹顶之下》。
03:30
It would be likened比喻
to Rachel雷切尔 Carson's卡森的 "Silent无声 Spring弹簧."
61
198880
3136
这就好比蕾切尔·卡逊的《寂静的春天》。
03:34
And much like Rachel雷切尔 Carson卡森
62
202040
1816
很像蕾切尔·卡逊
03:35
brought to attention注意 the fact事实
that pesticides农药 were harming汉宁波 human人的 health健康,
63
203880
3816
唤起人们关注杀虫剂正在危害人类健康,
03:39
"Under the Dome拱顶" stamped冲压
into the popular流行 consciousness意识
64
207720
3776
《穹顶之下》让人们意识到
03:43
that air空气 pollution污染 was leading领导
to one million百万 premature过早 deaths死亡
65
211520
4496
空气污染每年光在中国就导致100万人
03:48
every一切 year in China中国 alone单独.
66
216040
2200
过早死亡。
03:51
This video视频 garnered囊括
67
219120
1256
这个视频
03:52
more than a hundred million百万
views意见 in a single weekend周末
68
220400
2896
在政府干预前的一个周末内
03:55
before China's中国的 government政府,
69
223320
1896
播放量就超过了1亿,
03:57
fearing担心 that it might威力 incite煽动
some type类型 of social社会 unrest动荡,
70
225240
2896
政府担心这会引起社会动荡,
04:00
pulled it from the internet互联网.
71
228160
1360
从互联网下架了此视频。
04:02
But the damage损伤 had already已经 been doneDONE.
72
230800
1800
但损害已经造成。
04:05
Public上市 outcry喊叫 over air空气 pollution污染
73
233080
2216
公众对空气污染的愤怒
04:07
galvanized镀锌 China's中国的 government政府,
74
235320
1896
刺激了中国政府,
04:09
perhaps也许 in an act法案 of self-preservation自保,
75
237240
2416
或许是出于自我保护,
04:11
to think big and decisively果断地
about how it could tackle滑车
76
239680
2496
从大的和决定性的角度考虑
04:14
the root of its air空气 pollution污染
77
242200
2016
如何解决空气污染的根源
04:16
and many许多 of its other
environmental环境的 problems问题:
78
244240
2616
以及它的很多其他环境问题:
04:18
its energy能源 system系统.
79
246880
1200
它的能源体系。
04:20
For you see, in China中国,
80
248800
2056
如你所见,中国,
04:22
about two thirds三分之二 of its
electricity电力 comes from coal煤炭.
81
250880
2840
大概2/3的电力来自煤炭。
04:26
China中国 has more coal-fired燃煤 power功率 plants植物
than any other country国家 in the world世界,
82
254760
4696
中国拥有世界上最多的燃煤发电厂,
04:31
about 40 percent百分 of the global全球 total,
83
259480
2440
占全球总量的40%,
04:34
and it's because of this fact事实
that China's中国的 government政府
84
262960
3016
正是因为这个事实,中国政府
04:38
has decided决定 since以来 2014
to wage工资 a war战争 on coal煤炭,
85
266000
4176
决定2014年开始对煤炭宣战,
04:42
shutting关闭 down small coal煤炭 mines矿山,
86
270200
2256
关闭小煤矿,
04:44
setting设置 limits范围 on coal煤炭 consumption消费,
87
272480
2536
限制煤炭消费,
04:47
even canceling取消 an Australia's澳大利亚 worth价值
of coal-fired燃煤 power功率 plants植物.
88
275040
4400
甚至关闭了相当于澳大利亚
的煤炭发电厂。
04:53
They've他们已经 also been making制造
enormous巨大 investments投资
89
281120
2136
他们也在诸如水力发电,
风能和太阳能
04:55
when it comes to clean清洁
and renewable可再生 energy能源,
90
283280
2256
那样的清洁和可再生能源上
04:57
like hydropower水电, wind and solar太阳能,
91
285560
2936
做了大举投入,
05:00
and the pace步伐 and the scale规模
of this transformation转型
92
288520
2896
这种转变的速度和规模
05:03
has been absolutely绝对 mind-blowing令人兴奋.
93
291440
1856
绝对令人震惊。
05:05
Let me give you a couple一对 of statistics统计
to show显示 you what I mean.
94
293320
3416
让我给你们一组统计数据阐明我的意思。
05:08
China中国 leads引线 the world世界
when it comes to hydropower水电,
95
296760
2616
在水力发电方面,
中国以全球1/3的容量
05:11
with a third第三 of total capacity容量.
96
299400
1640
领先全球。
05:13
There's enough足够 for every一切 Chinese中文 citizen公民
97
301800
2376
仅水力发电一年
05:16
to power功率 two homes家园 in a single year
from hydropower水电 alone单独.
98
304200
4000
就足够每个中国公民为两户人家
提供电力。
05:20
You may可能 have heard听说
of the Three Gorges三峡 Dam,
99
308880
2096
你们可能听过三峡大坝,
05:23
pictured合照 here,
100
311000
1216
图片在这,
05:24
which哪一个 is the largest最大
power功率 station in the world世界,
101
312240
2246
是世界上最大的发电站,
05:26
and it's powered动力 by water.
102
314510
1506
它是由水驱动的。
05:28
In terms条款 of wind power功率,
103
316040
1336
风电方面,
05:29
China中国 has a third第三 of the global全球 capacity容量.
104
317400
3056
中国占全球装机容量的1/3.
05:32
This makes品牌 it the number one
leader领导 by far.
105
320480
2160
这它成为遥遥领先的第一名。
05:35
When we look at solar太阳能,
China's中国的 also leading领导.
106
323520
2936
当我们看太阳能时,
中国也处于领先地位。
05:38
In fact事实, they crushed their 2020 target目标
107
326480
3536
事实上,他们实现了2020年
05:42
of installing安装 105 gigawatts吉瓦
of solar太阳能 power功率.
108
330040
3456
安装105千兆瓦太阳能的目标。
05:45
This is after the government政府
already已经 revised修订 upwards向上
109
333520
3336
在此之前,中国政府
05:48
several一些 times its solar太阳能 energy能源 target目标
110
336880
2656
已在2009年至2015年间数次上调
05:51
between之间 2009 and 2015.
111
339560
2160
太阳能目标。
05:54
Last year, in seven months个月 alone单独,
112
342960
2336
去年,仅仅在7个月内,
05:57
China中国 was able能够 to install安装
a whopping高达 35 gigawatts吉瓦 of solar太阳能 power功率.
113
345320
4696
中国太阳能装机容量达到了
惊人的35千兆瓦。
这一数字超过了美国总和的一半,
06:02
This is more than half
of what the US has combined结合 in total
114
350040
3736
06:05
and China中国 did this
in just seven months个月 alone单独.
115
353800
2320
而且中国在7个月的时间内就做到了。
06:09
We can verify校验 this remarkable卓越 growth发展
in solar太阳能 power功率 from space空间,
116
357080
4056
我们可以从太空中验证
太阳能的显著增长,
06:13
like the startup启动 SpaceKnowSpaceKnow
has doneDONE in this slide滑动.
117
361160
2680
如初创公司天空之眼(SpaceKnow)
的这张图表上所示。
06:16
By 2020, China中国 is on track跟踪 to generate生成
Germany's德国 entire整个 electricity电力 consumption消费
118
364960
5616
到2020年,中国有望只通过风能和太阳能
06:22
from just wind and solar太阳能 power功率 alone单独.
119
370600
2440
就能实现德国的全部电力消费。
06:25
It's pretty漂亮 darn remarkable卓越.
120
373560
1400
这是相当惊人的。
06:28
And we see some evidence证据 now
121
376000
2536
我们现在可以看到一些证据,
06:30
that China's中国的 efforts努力 on clean清洁 energy能源
122
378560
2136
中国在清洁能源上的努力
06:32
is actually其实 having an effect影响,
123
380720
2096
确实在产生成效,
06:34
not just on air空气 pollution污染 reduction减少,
124
382840
1976
不仅对减少空气污染,
06:36
but also on global全球 climate气候 change更改,
125
384840
1696
但也对全球气候变化,
06:38
where China中国 has the world's世界
largest最大 carbon footprint脚印.
126
386560
2510
中国是世界上碳排放量最大的国家。
06:42
If we look at some of the data数据,
we can see that China's中国的 coal煤炭 consumption消费
127
390000
4016
如果我们看数据,可以看到中国的煤炭消费
06:46
may可能 have already已经 reached到达 a peak
as early as 2013.
128
394040
3400
可能早在2013年就达到了峰值。
06:50
This is a major重大的 reason原因
why China's中国的 government政府 announced公布
129
398320
3376
这是中国政府之所以宣布
06:53
that actually其实 they've他们已经 already已经 achieved实现
their 2020 carbon reduction减少 pledge保证
130
401720
4576
他们已经提前实现2020年减排承诺
06:58
ahead of schedule时间表.
131
406320
1200
的主要原因。
07:00
This reduction减少 in coal煤炭 consumption消费
132
408320
2016
煤炭消费的减少
07:02
is also directly driving主动
improvements改进 in air空气 quality质量
133
410360
2976
也直接改善了全国各地的
07:05
across横过 the country国家,
134
413360
1376
空气质量,
07:06
as I've shown显示 here in blue蓝色.
135
414760
1600
就如我在这里展现的蓝色部分。
07:09
In most major重大的 Chinese中文 cities城市,
136
417280
1536
在多数主要中国城市,
07:10
air空气 pollution污染 has fallen堕落
by as much as 30 percent百分.
137
418840
2880
空气污染下降多达30%。
07:14
And this reduction减少 in air空气 pollution污染
is actually其实 leading领导 people
138
422800
2936
空气污染的减少也确实让中国人们
07:17
to live生活 longer lives生活 in China中国,
139
425760
1976
寿命增加,
07:19
on average平均 two and a half years年份 more
than they would have in 2013.
140
427760
5000
平均比2013年多两年半。
07:25
In yellow黄色, we can see
the cities城市 that have experienced有经验的
141
433680
2976
黄色这些,是我们可以看到的
07:28
the greatest最大 improvements改进 in air空气 quality质量.
142
436680
1953
空气质量改善最大的城市。
07:31
But of course课程, as I mentioned提到
at the beginning开始 of this talk,
143
439600
2896
但当然,就如我在这个演讲开头
提到的那样,
07:34
we have to temper脾气 some of this optimism乐观
144
442520
2016
我们必须用适当的谨慎
07:36
with a healthy健康 dose剂量 of caution警告,
145
444560
2176
来缓和这种乐观情绪,
07:38
and that's largely大部分 because
the data数据 are still being存在 determined决心.
146
446760
3720
这很大程度上是因为数据还未最终确认。
07:43
At the end结束 of last year,
147
451480
1656
去年年底,
07:45
after roughly大致 three years年份
of pretty漂亮 steady稳定 global全球 carbon emissions排放,
148
453160
4176
在全球碳排放量稳定增长大约三年之后,
07:49
scientific科学 projections预测 suggest建议
149
457360
2536
科学预测表明,
07:51
that global全球 emissions排放
may可能 be on the rise上升 again
150
459920
2856
全球排放量可能再次上升
07:54
and that could be due应有 to increases增加
in China's中国的 fossil化石 fuel汽油 consumptions消费,
151
462800
4136
这可能是由于中国化石燃料消费的增加,
07:58
so they may可能 not have reached到达
that peak that I showed显示 earlier.
152
466960
3256
所以它们可能没有达到
我之前展示的峰值。
08:02
But of course课程, the statistics统计
and the data数据 are still murky模糊
153
470240
3616
但当然,统计数据和数据仍然模糊不清,
08:05
and that's because China中国 regularly经常 revises修改
its coal煤炭 statistics统计 after the fact事实.
154
473880
5176
这是因为中国在事后定期修正
煤炭统计数据。
08:11
Actually其实, it's funny滑稽,
155
479080
1496
实际上,这很有趣,
08:12
since以来 I've been here I've been
having a debate辩论 on Twitter推特
156
480600
2696
自从我来到这里,我就在推特上和其他
08:15
with other climate气候 modelers建 模,
157
483320
1536
气候模型专家辩论,
08:16
trying to figure数字 out
whether是否 China's中国的 carbon emissions排放
158
484880
2496
想要搞清楚中国的碳排放
08:19
have gone走了 up, gone走了 down or whether是否
they're staying relatively相对 stable稳定.
159
487400
3680
是上升,下降还是保持相对稳定。
08:24
And of course课程, China中国 is still
a rapidly急速 developing发展 country国家.
160
492200
3520
当然,中国仍然是快速发展中国家。
08:28
It's still experimenting试验
with a range范围 of policies政策,
161
496160
2696
它仍然在试验各种政策,
08:30
like docklessdockless bike自行车 sharing分享,
162
498880
1616
比如无桩共享单车,
08:32
which哪一个 has been hailed欢呼 as a possible可能
sustainable可持续发展 transport运输 solution.
163
500520
3240
这被认为是一种可行的可持续交通解决方案。
08:36
But then we have images图片
of this bicycle自行车 graveyard墓地
164
504680
3656
但后来我们有这个自行车墓地的图片
08:40
that tell a more cautionary警示 tale故事.
165
508360
1920
说明一个更值得警惕的故事。
08:42
Sometimes有时, solutions解决方案 can move移动 too fast快速
166
510840
2136
有些时候,解决方案变化太快
08:45
and outpace超过 demand需求.
167
513000
1240
并超出需求。
08:47
And of course课程,
coal煤炭 is still king国王 in China中国,
168
515159
3201
当然,煤炭仍然是中国的王者,
08:51
at least最小 for now.
169
519200
1200
至少目前而言。
08:53
So why should we care关心 about
what China中国 is doing on the environment环境?
170
521520
3536
那么,我们为什么要关心中国
在环境上的所作所为呢?
08:57
Well, what China中国 does at home
on the environment环境
171
525080
3056
中国在国内环境问题上的作为可能会对
09:00
can have global全球 implications启示
for the rest休息 of us.
172
528160
2736
我们其他国家产生全球性的影响。
09:02
To borrow a line线 from Chai Jing,
173
530920
1936
引用柴静的一句台词,
09:04
we're all under the same相同 dome拱顶,
174
532880
1856
我们都生活在同一个穹顶下,
09:06
and air空气 pollution污染 that originates起源 in China中国
175
534760
2656
来自中国的空间污染
09:09
can travel旅行 beyond its borders国界
176
537440
2096
可以跨越国家扩散
09:11
and affect影响 populations人群
as far away as those in North America美国.
177
539560
3280
影响远至北美的人民。
09:16
China's中国的 not only exporting出口 air空气 pollution污染,
178
544200
2576
中国不仅出口空间污染,
09:18
but they're also exporting出口 aid援助,
infrastructure基础设施, technology技术 abroad国外.
179
546800
4520
他们也在向国外输出援助,
基础设施和技术。
09:24
President主席 Xi Jinping锦屏 in 2013 announced公布
the One Belt, One Road Initiative倡议,
180
552200
5576
2013年习近平主席宣布一带一路倡议,
09:29
a massive大规模的, one-trillion-US-dollar一万亿美元
infrastructure基础设施 investment投资 project项目
181
557800
4376
一个规模庞大,价值1万亿美元,
覆盖超过60个其他国家
09:34
in more than 60 other countries国家.
182
562200
1760
的基础设施建设项目。
09:36
And historically历史, when we've我们已经 seen看到
183
564560
2096
历史上,当我们看
09:38
that China中国 has made制作
these infrastructure基础设施 investments投资 abroad国外,
184
566680
2896
中国在海外进行基础设施投资时,
09:41
they haven't没有 always been clean清洁.
185
569600
1600
它们并不总是清洁的。
09:43
The Global全球 Environment环境 Institute研究所,
a Chinese中文 civil国内 society社会 group,
186
571760
3576
全球环境研究所,一个中国公民社会组织,
09:47
found发现 that in the last 15 years年份,
187
575360
2376
发现在过去15年,
09:49
China中国 has invested投资 in more
than 240 coal-fired燃煤 power功率 plants植物
188
577760
4056
中国已经在68个国家投资超过
09:53
in more than 68 countries国家
189
581840
2096
240个燃煤发电厂,
09:55
affiliated附属 with the One Belt,
One Road Initiative倡议.
190
583960
2776
这与一路一带倡议有关。
09:58
That's more than a quarter25美分硬币 of China's中国的
own拥有 domestic国内 coal-fired燃煤 capacity容量
191
586760
4136
超过中国国内燃煤发电能力的1/4
10:02
that is exported出口 abroad国外.
192
590920
1816
被出口至海外。
10:04
So we can see that even though虽然
China中国 is cleaning清洁的 up at home,
193
592760
4136
于是我们可以看到尽管中国国内正在改善,
10:08
it's exporting出口 some of that pollution污染
194
596920
2176
它在出口部分的污染
10:11
to other countries国家,
195
599120
1496
到其他国家,
10:12
and greenhouse温室 gas加油站 emissions排放
simply只是 don't have a passport护照.
196
600640
2760
而且温室气体排放根本不用护照。
10:16
So when we're trying
to evaluate评估 this question
197
604240
2176
所以当我们试图评估中国
10:18
of whether是否 or not China中国
is actually其实 leading领导,
198
606440
2096
是否真正领先这个问题时,
10:20
we can see it's still
very much an open打开 debate辩论.
199
608560
2560
我们可以看到仍然有太多的公开争议。
10:24
But time is running赛跑 out.
200
612040
1616
但时间所剩无几。
10:25
I've studied研究 the climate气候 models楷模,
and the outlook外表 is not good.
201
613680
3456
我研究过气候模型,前景并不乐观。
10:29
We still have a gap间隙
between之间 current当前 policies政策
202
617160
3536
如果我们要避免危险的环境变化,
10:32
and what needs需求 to happen发生 if we want
to avoid避免 dangerous危险 climate气候 change更改.
203
620720
3720
现行政策和需要做的事情之间
仍有很大的鸿沟。
10:37
Leadership领导 is what we desperately拼命 need,
204
625240
2536
领导力是我们迫切需要的,
10:39
but it's not coming未来
from the US, for example.
205
627800
2496
但举例来说,美国是不能指望了。
10:42
The US administration行政 last June六月
announced公布 its intent意图
206
630320
3016
美国政府去年6月宣布
10:45
to withdraw收回 from
the Paris巴黎 Climate气候 Agreement协议,
207
633360
2616
有意退出《巴黎气候协定》,
10:48
so now people are looking towards China中国
to fill that leadership领导 void空虚.
208
636000
3440
因此现在人们希望中国来填补
这一领导真空。
10:52
So China中国 is very much in the driver's司机 seat座位
209
640040
2376
所以,中国很大程度上掌握着主动权
10:54
determining决定 our global全球
environmental环境的 future未来.
210
642440
2320
决定我们全球环境的未来。
10:57
What they do on carbon trading贸易,
211
645760
2056
他们在碳交易,
10:59
on clean清洁 energy能源, on air空气 pollution污染,
212
647840
2440
清洁能源,空气污染的作为,
11:03
we can learn学习 many许多 lessons教训.
213
651680
1600
我们可以学到很多东西。
11:05
One of those lessons教训 is that clean清洁 energy能源
is not just good for the environment环境,
214
653880
4336
其中一点是清洁能源不仅对环境好,
11:10
it can save保存 lives生活
by reducing减少 air空气 pollution污染.
215
658240
2320
它可以通过减少空气污染拯救生命。
11:13
It's also good for the economy经济.
216
661680
1480
它也对经济有益。
11:15
We can see that last year,
217
663880
1256
我们可以看到去年,
11:17
China中国 was responsible主管
for 30 percent百分 of the global全球 growth发展
218
665160
3336
中国占了全球清洁能源就业增长
11:20
in green绿色 jobs工作.
219
668520
1376
中的30%。
11:21
The US? Only six.
220
669920
1480
美国呢?只有6%。
11:24
So the picture图片 that I just painted for you
221
672800
2416
所以我刚才给你们绘的图,
11:27
hopefully希望 seems似乎 much different不同
222
675240
2176
那些模糊的,雾霾的空气质量统计数据
11:29
from those murky模糊,
foggy有雾 air空气 quality质量 statistics统计
223
677440
3136
到更加中国清洁能源更加清洁的图片
11:32
to a much clearer更清晰 picture图片
of China's中国的 clean清洁 energy能源.
224
680600
3456
希望看起来不同。
11:36
And even though虽然 China中国
is headed当家 in the right direction方向,
225
684080
2936
尽管中国正朝着正确的方向前进,
11:39
we know that there's still
a very long road ahead.
226
687040
2720
我们知道前面仍有很长的路要走。
11:42
So let me ask you once一旦 more:
Is seeing眼看 believing相信?
227
690520
2720
所以让我再问你一次:眼见为实吗?
11:45
Can we trust相信 the data数据 and the statistics统计
228
693880
1936
我们能够相信数据和统计
11:47
that show显示 that China's中国的
air空气 quality质量 is coming未来 down
229
695840
3256
所显示的中国空气质量指数在改善
11:51
and that its war战争 on coal煤炭
is actually其实 having an effect影响?
230
699120
3240
以及对煤炭的战争取得成效了吗?
11:55
Well, let's take a look
at some of the latest最新 satellite卫星 images图片
231
703440
3416
让我们来看看中国太阳能装机的
11:58
of China's中国的 solar太阳能 power功率 installations安装.
232
706880
2360
最新的卫星图片。
12:02
I want you to look
very closely密切 at this image图片.
233
710640
2560
我想要你们认真看看这张照片。
12:06
Can you see?
234
714440
1200
看到了吗?
12:08
The proof证明 may可能 just be in the pandas大熊猫.
235
716200
3136
证据就在熊猫上。
12:11
Thank you so much.
236
719360
1216
谢谢。
12:12
(Applause掌声)
237
720600
4760
(鼓掌)
Translated by jacks peng
Reviewed by Wei Wu

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Angel Hsu - Environmental data scientist
Angel Hsu is a professor and data geek who applies data-driven methods to solve challenging environmental issues.

Why you should listen

Angel Hsu is a professor, researcher, writer and speaker who spends much of her time analyzing large datasets to develop policy solutions to the world's most pressing environmental problems, such as climate change and air pollution. As she writes: "I work between the push and pull of data science and public policy, and this passion drives me to explore how new technologies, analytical techniques and communication strategies can improve governance and lead to better environmental outcomes in rapidly developing countries like China."

Hsu is jointly appointed at Yale-NUS in Singapore at Yale's School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. She founded and directed Data-Driven Yale, an international team of interdisciplinary researchers, scientists, programmers and visual designers. Under her direction, Data-Driven Yale works collaboratively with scholars and practitioners around the world to collect, transform and communicate information, creating new knowledge and policy tools designed to make the world greener and healthier. Her work has been published in scientific journals like Nature and Nature Climate Change and featured in media like The Economist and the New York Times.

More profile about the speaker
Angel Hsu | Speaker | TED.com