TED@BCG Paris
Olivier Scalabre: The next manufacturing revolution is here
Olivier Scalabre: 下一次工业革命就在眼前
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过去50年里，经济增长逐步放缓，但人们也无须过度担心，因为一种新的工业形式悄悄产生。它既不是你想象的样子，也不在你想象中的领域。工业系统思想家Oliver Scalabre向我们阐述，第四次工业革命将如何改变宏观经济、促进就业、提高生产力以及加速经济发展。
Olivier Scalabre - Industrial systems thinker
BCG's Olivier Scalabre analyzes the evolution of large industrial companies' manufacturing footprint and operations. Full bio
BCG's Olivier Scalabre analyzes the evolution of large industrial companies' manufacturing footprint and operations. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Guys, we have an issue.
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各位，我们遇到问题了。
（笑声）
00:16
(Laughter)
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经济增长逐渐放缓，
这可是个大问题。
这可是个大问题。
00:17
Growth is fading away,
and it's a big deal.
and it's a big deal.
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00:21
Our global economy stops growing.
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全球经济停止增长。
00:24
And it's not new.
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这已经不是什么新闻了。
00:25
Growth has actually declined
for the last 50 years.
for the last 50 years.
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事实上过去50年来
增速一直在逐渐放缓。
增速一直在逐渐放缓。
00:29
If we continue like this, we need to learn
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如果这一态势延续下去，
我们就必须学习
我们就必须学习
如何在无经济增长的情况下生存。
00:31
how to live in a world
with no growth in the next decade.
with no growth in the next decade.
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00:36
This is scary because
when the economy doesn't grow,
when the economy doesn't grow,
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这听起来很恐怖，
因为一旦经济发展停滞，
因为一旦经济发展停滞，
我们的孩子就无法拥有更好的生活。
00:39
our children don't get better lives.
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00:42
What's even scarier is that
when the pie does not grow,
when the pie does not grow,
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更加可怕的是一旦馅饼不再变大，
00:45
each of us get a smaller piece.
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每个人分到的份额就会更小，
00:47
We're then ready to fight
for a bigger one.
for a bigger one.
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要随时备战以争取更大的馅饼。
00:50
This creates tensions
and serious conflicts.
and serious conflicts.
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形势就会紧张，出现严重的冲突。
00:53
Growth matters a lot.
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经济增长事关重大。
如果我们回顾经济增长史，
00:57
If we look at the history of growth,
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就会发现高速增长往往都由
00:59
times of big growth
have always been fueled
have always been fueled
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01:02
by big manufacturing revolutions.
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大型工业革命带动。
01:04
It happened three times,
every 50-60 years.
every 50-60 years.
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这在历史上一共发生了三次，
每50到60年一次。
每50到60年一次。
它们分别是：
19世纪中叶的蒸汽机，
19世纪中叶的蒸汽机，
01:08
The steam engine
in the middle of the 19th century,
in the middle of the 19th century,
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20世纪早期的大规模生产模型——
01:12
the mass-production model
in the beginning of the 20th century --
in the beginning of the 20th century --
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这要感谢福特先生。
01:16
thanks, Mr. Ford.
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01:18
And the first automation
wave in the 1970s.
wave in the 1970s.
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和20世纪70年代的
第一次自动化浪潮。
第一次自动化浪潮。
为什么这些工业革命
01:22
Why did these manufacturing revolutions
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01:24
create huge growth in our economies?
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会引发经济高速增长呢？
因为他们显著提高了生产效率。
01:27
Because they have injected
huge productivity improvement.
huge productivity improvement.
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01:31
It's rather simple:
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这其实很简单：
为了实现增长，
人们需要生产更多的产品，
人们需要生产更多的产品，
01:33
in order to grow,
you need to be producing more,
you need to be producing more,
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01:36
putting more into our economy.
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为我们的经济投入更多的资源。
01:39
This means either more labor
or more capital or more productivity.
or more capital or more productivity.
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这就意味着需要更多劳动力，
更多资本，或更高的生产力。
更多资本，或更高的生产力。
01:44
Each time, productivity
has been the growth lever.
has been the growth lever.
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每次，生产力都是
经济增长的杠杆因素。
经济增长的杠杆因素。
我今天想要告诉各位
01:49
I'm here today to tell you
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01:52
that we are on the verge
of another huge change,
of another huge change,
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我们即将经历另一次剧变，
01:56
and that this change, surprisingly enough,
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这次改变，出乎意料的是，
也再次会从制造业开始。
01:59
is going to come
from manufacturing, again.
from manufacturing, again.
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02:03
It will get us out of our growth slump
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它将使我们走出经济的萧条期，
会从根本上改变过去十年
02:06
and it will change radically
the way globalization has been shaped
the way globalization has been shaped
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全球化塑造的状况。
02:10
over the last decade.
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02:11
I'm here to tell you about the amazing
fourth manufacturing revolution
fourth manufacturing revolution
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现在我要告诉大家，第四次工业革命
已经在发生了。
02:17
that is currently underway.
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02:19
It's not as if we've done nothing
with manufacturing
with manufacturing
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这并不意味着
自上次工业革命以来
自上次工业革命以来
02:21
since the last revolution.
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我们没有任何进步。
02:23
Actually, we've made
some pretty lame attempts
some pretty lame attempts
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事实上，我们做了几次努力
试图重振工业经济。
02:25
to try to revitalize it.
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02:27
But none of them
have been the big overhaul
have been the big overhaul
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但成效甚微，
02:30
we really need to get us growing again.
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不足以让经济恢复增长。
02:32
For example, we've tried
to relocate our factories offshore
to relocate our factories offshore
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比如说，我们曾试图将工厂迁至海外，
02:37
in order to reduce cost
and take advantage of cheap labor.
and take advantage of cheap labor.
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利用当地廉价劳动力，
从而降低成本。
从而降低成本。
但这不仅没有提高生产力，
02:41
Not only did this not
inspire productivity,
inspire productivity,
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还只是在短期内节省了成本，
02:44
but it only saved money
for a short period of time,
for a short period of time,
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因为廉价劳动力不会永远廉价。
02:47
because cheap labor
didn't stay cheap for long.
didn't stay cheap for long.
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02:50
Then, we've tried to make
our factories larger
our factories larger
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之后，我们还试图把工厂做大，
对每种产品进行专门化生产。
02:54
and we specialized them by product.
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02:57
The idea was that we can
make a lot of one product
make a lot of one product
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这个想法是基于
如果我们可以只做一种产品
如果我们可以只做一种产品
囤积起来以根据需求售卖。
03:00
and stockpile it to be sold with demand.
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这个做法确实
在一段时间内提高了生产力。
在一段时间内提高了生产力。
03:04
This did help productivity for a while.
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03:06
But it introduced a lot of rigidities
in our supply chain.
in our supply chain.
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但它让我们的供应链非常死板。
让我们以服饰时尚零售业为例。
03:11
Let's take fashion retail.
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03:13
Traditional clothing companies
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传统的服装企业
建立了位于海外的，全球化的
僵化的供应链。
僵化的供应链。
03:15
have built offshore,
global, rigid supply chains.
global, rigid supply chains.
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当像Zara等“快速时尚”竞争者
03:20
When fast-fashion competitors like Zara
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03:23
started replenishing their stocks faster
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加快存货周转率，
03:26
from two collections a year
to one collection a month,
to one collection a month,
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从一年两个时装系列
提高到一个月一个时装系列，
提高到一个月一个时装系列，
传统的服装企业
就都跟不上其节奏了。
就都跟不上其节奏了。
03:29
none of them have been able
to keep up with the pace.
to keep up with the pace.
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它们中的绝大多数如今都陷入了危机。
03:32
Most of them are
in great difficulties today.
in great difficulties today.
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03:36
Yet, with all of their shortcomings,
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但是，尽管有这些缺点，
03:39
those are the factories we know today.
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这些企业都依然很知名。
03:41
When you open the doors,
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当你打开门出去看看时，
03:43
they look the same
as they did 50 years ago.
as they did 50 years ago.
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你会发现这些工厂
和50年前一模一样。
和50年前一模一样。
03:46
We've just changed the location,
the size, the way they operate.
the size, the way they operate.
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我们仅仅变换了工厂的位置、
大小和运作方式。
大小和运作方式。
你们还能列举出任何
03:52
Can you name anything else
that looks the same
that looks the same
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五十年没有改变的例子吗？
03:54
as it did 50 years ago?
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03:56
It's crazy.
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这太难以置信了。
我们已尽我们所能
对该模型进行调整，
对该模型进行调整，
03:57
We've made all the tweaks
to the model that we could,
to the model that we could,
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04:00
and now we hit its limits.
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但目前已经达到了极限。
04:05
After all of our attempts to fix
the manufacturing model failed,
the manufacturing model failed,
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在对修补工业模型做出的
全部尝试都失败后，
全部尝试都失败后，
04:09
we thought growth could come
from elsewhere.
from elsewhere.
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我们猜测经济增长
或许可以来自其他领域。
或许可以来自其他领域。
我们转向科技行业——
04:12
We turned to the tech sector --
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那里有相当多的创新活动。
04:14
there's been quite a lot
of innovations there.
of innovations there.
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举一个例子：因特网。
04:17
Just to name one: the Internet.
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04:19
We hoped it could produce growth.
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我们希望网络能够带来增长。
04:21
And indeed, it changed our lives.
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事实上，它改变了我们的生活。
它对传媒业、服务业
和娱乐产业都带来了极大影响。
和娱乐产业都带来了极大影响。
04:24
It made big waves in the media,
the service, the entertainment spaces.
the service, the entertainment spaces.
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04:29
But it hasn't done much for productivity.
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但是它并未对生产力带来多大改变。
04:32
Actually, what's surprising
is that productivity is on the decline
is that productivity is on the decline
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实际上，令人惊讶的是，
尽管有这么多的创新的尝试，
尽管有这么多的创新的尝试，
04:36
despite all of those innovation efforts.
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生产力却一直在下降。
04:39
Imagine that -- sitting at work,
scrolling through Facebook,
scrolling through Facebook,
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想象一下——上班的时候，
刷刷Facebook，
刷刷Facebook，
在YouTube上看看视频，
这都让我们的生产效率降低了。
这都让我们的生产效率降低了。
04:43
watching videos on YouTube
has made us less productive.
has made us less productive.
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很奇怪吧。
04:47
Weird.
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(笑声)
04:48
(Laughter)
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04:49
This is why we are not growing.
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这就是为什么经济未能增长。
04:52
We failed at reinventing
the manufacturing space,
the manufacturing space,
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我们未能重新创造工业生产活动，
与此同时大型技术创新却与之相背。
04:55
and large technological innovations
have played away from it.
have played away from it.
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05:01
But what if we could combine those forces?
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但如果我们把这些结合起来
会发生什么？
会发生什么？
05:03
What if the existing manufacturing
and large technological innovation
and large technological innovation
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将当下的制造业与
大型技术创新结合起来，
大型技术创新结合起来，
05:08
came together to create
the next big manufacturing reinvention.
the next big manufacturing reinvention.
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也许会引发下一次大型工业革命。
05:13
Bingo!
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没错！
05:14
This is the fourth
manufacturing revolution,
manufacturing revolution,
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这就是第四次工业革命，
05:17
and it's happening right now.
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而它此时此刻正在发生。
05:19
Major technologies are entering
the manufacturing space,
the manufacturing space,
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重大技术革新正在进入制造业领域，
05:22
big time.
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这是个重大时刻。
05:24
They will boost industrial productivity
by more than a third.
by more than a third.
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它将会使生产力提高超过三分之一。
05:28
This is massive, and it will do
a lot in creating growth.
a lot in creating growth.
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这个巨大的改变，将引发经济的增长。
让我来向各位举几个例子。
05:33
Let me tell you about some of them.
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不知在座各位知不知道
高级工业机器人？
高级工业机器人？
05:36
Have you already met advanced
manufacturing robots?
manufacturing robots?
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05:39
They are the size of humans,
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它们和人类大小相仿，
05:41
they actually collaborate with them,
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可以和人类合作，
可以通过设定好的程序
05:43
and they can be programmed
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05:45
in order to perform
complex, non-repetitive tasks.
complex, non-repetitive tasks.
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来执行复杂的、非重复性的任务。
当今，在我们的工厂里
只有百分之八的任务是自动化的。
只有百分之八的任务是自动化的。
05:49
Today in our factories, only
8 percent of the tasks are automated.
8 percent of the tasks are automated.
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05:54
The less complex,
the more repetitive ones.
the more repetitive ones.
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尤其是那些不是很复杂，
且重复性更强的任务。
且重复性更强的任务。
在未来十年内这一数字
会增长到百分之二十五。
会增长到百分之二十五。
05:58
It will be 25 percent in 10 years.
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这意味着到2025年，
06:01
It means that by 2025,
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高级机器人将与工人合作，
06:04
advanced robots will complement workers
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将生产率将提升20%，
06:06
to be, together,
20 percent more productive,
20 percent more productive,
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产出量也将提升20%，
06:09
to manufacture 20 percent more outputs,
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06:11
to achieve 20 percent additional growth.
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从而实现20%的经济增长。
06:15
This isn't some fancy, futuristic idea.
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这并不是对未来的幻想。
06:18
These robots are working for us right now.
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这些机器人现在就在为我们工作。
06:21
Last year in the US, they helped
Amazon prepare and ship all the products
Amazon prepare and ship all the products
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去年在美国，
机器人帮助亚马逊发货
机器人帮助亚马逊发货
06:27
required for Cyber Monday,
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以应对网络星期一带来的
年度线上零售消费高峰。
06:29
the annual peak of online retail.
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06:32
Last year in the US,
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那是去年在美国的，
06:34
it was the biggest online shopping day
of the year and of history.
of the year and of history.
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有史以来最大的线上购物日。
06:40
Consumers spent 3 billion dollars
on electronics that day.
on electronics that day.
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消费者那天在网络上
共支出30亿美元。
共支出30亿美元。
06:44
That's real economic growth.
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那是实实在在的经济增长。
06:47
Then there's additive
manufacturing, 3D printing.
manufacturing, 3D printing.
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此外，还有积层制造，即3D打印技术。
06:51
3D printing has already improved
plastic manufacturing
plastic manufacturing
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3D打印已经提升了塑料制造行业。
06:55
and it's now making its way through metal.
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目前它正向钢铁行业进发。
它们可不是小型行业。
06:58
Those are not small industries.
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塑料和钢铁占全球
07:00
Plastic and metals represent 25 percent
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制造业生产的25%
07:03
of global manufacturing production.
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07:06
Let's take a real example.
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让我们看一个具体例子。
在航空航天产业，
07:09
In the aerospace industry,
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燃油喷嘴是最难生产的部件之一，
07:11
fuel nozzles are some of the most
complex parts to manufacture,
complex parts to manufacture,
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07:16
for one reason:
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就因为一个原因：
它由20种不同部件组成，
07:17
they are made up of 20 different parts
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07:21
that need to be separately produced
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并且它们需要独立生产，
07:23
and then painstakingly assembled.
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组装过程也极其复杂。
航空公司现在正在采用3D打印技术，
07:27
Aerospace companies
are now using 3D printing,
are now using 3D printing,
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这类技术可以让它们从
需要生产20种不同部件，
需要生产20种不同部件，
07:30
which allows them to turn
those 20 different parts
those 20 different parts
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07:33
into just one.
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变为只生产一种。
结果呢？
07:35
The results?
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生产力提高了百分之四十，
07:36
40 percent more productivity,
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产量提高了百分之四十，
经济增长加快了百分之四十，
经济增长加快了百分之四十，
07:39
40 percent more output produced,
40 percent more growth
40 percent more growth
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07:42
for this specific industry.
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仅仅就在这一特定的领域。
但事实上，这次新工业革命
最激动人心的地方
最激动人心的地方
07:45
But actually, the most exciting part
of this new manufacturing revolution
of this new manufacturing revolution
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07:51
goes much beyond productivity.
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远不止生产率的提高。
还有生产质量更优、
更为精细的产品，
更为精细的产品，
07:54
It's about producing better,
smarter products.
smarter products.
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还有批量定制。
07:58
It's about scale customization.
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想象一下，你可以买到
符合你所有需求的产品，
符合你所有需求的产品，
08:01
Imagine a world where you can buy
the exact products you want
the exact products you want
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08:05
with the functionalities you need,
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具备你需要的所有功能，
08:08
with the design you want,
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有你想要的设计，
08:10
with the same cost and lead time
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但却和大规模生产出的产品
08:11
as a product that's been mass produced,
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在价位与交付时间上相差无几，
你可以买到你所定制的
车、衣服，甚至是手机。
车、衣服，甚至是手机。
08:13
like your car, or your clothes
or your cell phone.
or your cell phone.
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这次新工业革命让这一切变得可能。
08:17
The new manufacturing revolution
makes it possible.
makes it possible.
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我们可以通过对高级机器人编程，
08:20
Advanced robots can be programmed
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08:23
in order to perform
any product configuration
any product configuration
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使其无须安装时间、无须缓冲
08:26
without any setup time or ramp up.
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便可以完成任何产品装配。
08:29
3D printers instantaneously produce
any customized design.
any customized design.
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3D打印机可以即刻生产
任何定做的设计品。
任何定做的设计品。
现如今我们可以用大批量生产所需
同样的成本及订货交付时间
同样的成本及订货交付时间
08:35
We are now able to produce
a batch of one product, your product,
a batch of one product, your product,
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08:41
at the same cost and lead time
as a batch of many.
as a batch of many.
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来生产一个仅属于你的产品。
这些仅仅是当下工业革命的
几个例子。
几个例子。
08:45
Those are only a few examples
of the manufacturing revolution at play.
of the manufacturing revolution at play.
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08:50
Not only will manufacturing
become more productive,
become more productive,
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不仅生产率更高，
同时制造业还变得更具弹性，
08:54
it will also become more flexible,
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08:57
and those were exactly the elements
of growth that we are missing.
of growth that we are missing.
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而这些恰恰是我们缺少的增长要素。
但实际上，制造业重回聚光灯下
09:03
But actually, there are even
some bigger implications
some bigger implications
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对我们所有人而言
还有更深层次的意义。
还有更深层次的意义。
09:06
for all of us when manufacturing
will find its way back into the limelight.
will find its way back into the limelight.
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09:12
It will create a huge macroeconomic shift.
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它会带来巨大的宏观经济转变。
首先，我们的工厂将会迁回国内市场。
09:16
First, our factories will be relocated
into our home markets.
into our home markets.
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09:21
In the world of scale customization,
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在大规模订制的情况下，
亲近客户将会变成新的模式。
09:24
consumer proximity is the new norm.
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09:27
Then, our factories
will be smaller, agile.
will be smaller, agile.
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而且，我们的工厂会变得
更小、更灵活。
更小、更灵活。
批量化不再重要，
弹性化取而代之。
弹性化取而代之。
09:31
Scale does not matter anymore,
flexibility does.
flexibility does.
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工厂将会基于多种类产品
及订制的基础上生产。
及订制的基础上生产。
09:35
They will be operating on a multi-product,
made-to-order basis.
made-to-order basis.
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这将是个剧变。
09:39
The change will be drastic.
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全球化将进入一个新纪元。
09:42
Globalization will enter a new era.
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09:47
The East-to-West trade flows
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由东至西的贸易流动
09:50
will be replaced by regional trade flows.
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将会被区域化贸易往来取缔。
09:52
East for East, West for West.
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东部供给东部，西部供给西部。
再回首看看过去的生产模式，
09:55
When you think about that,
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09:57
the old model was pretty much insane.
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就会发现它有多么不切实际。
10:01
Piling up stocks, making products
travel the whole world
travel the whole world
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囤积存货，在产品达到客户手上之前
10:04
before they reach their end consumers.
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让它们经历一次世界旅行。
10:06
The new model, producing
just next to the consumer market,
just next to the consumer market,
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这种在客户市场附近
生产销售的新生产模式，
生产销售的新生产模式，
将会更为清洁，对环境更好。
10:11
will be much cleaner,
much better for our environment.
much better for our environment.
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在成熟经济体中，
制造业将回归本国，
制造业将回归本国，
10:16
In mature economies,
manufacturing will be back home,
manufacturing will be back home,
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这将创造更多就业，
10:20
creating more employment,
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10:22
more productivity and more growth.
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提高生产率并且推动经济发展。
10:25
Good news, isn't it?
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好消息，不是吗？
但问题在于——
10:28
But here's the thing with growth --
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经济发展并不是自然而然就会发生的。
10:30
it does not come automatically.
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10:32
Mature economies will have to seize it.
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成熟经济体需要抓住经济发展机遇。
10:35
We'll have to massively
re-train our workforce.
re-train our workforce.
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我们必须对劳动力
进行大规模的再培训。
进行大规模的再培训。
在绝大多数国家，
比如我的祖国，法国，
比如我的祖国，法国，
10:38
In most countries,
like in my country, France,
like in my country, France,
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10:41
we've told our children
that manufacturing had no future.
that manufacturing had no future.
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我们曾经告诉孩子们：
制造业是没有前途的。
制造业是没有前途的。
而且很早以前就是这样了。
10:44
That it was something happening far away.
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10:46
We need to reverse that
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我们必须改变这一观点，
在大学里重新教授制造业课程。
10:48
and teach manufacturing again
at university.
at university.
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只有大胆变革的国家
10:51
Only the countries
that will boldly transform
that will boldly transform
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10:54
will be able to seize this growth.
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才能够抓住这次经济发展机会。
这对发展中国家而言
也是一个机遇。
也是一个机遇。
10:58
It's also a chance
for developing economies.
for developing economies.
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诚然，中国和其他发展中国家
11:02
Of course China
and other emerging economies
and other emerging economies
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不再会是世界工厂。
11:06
won't be the factory of the world anymore.
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2100
11:09
Actually, it was not a sustainable
model in the long term,
model in the long term,
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实际上，随着这些国家变得更为富有，
11:14
as those countries are becoming richer.
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作为世界工厂长期来看
也不是一个可持续发展方式。
也不是一个可持续发展方式。
去年，巴西的生产成本
11:17
Last year, it was already
as expensive to produce in Brazil
as expensive to produce in Brazil
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11:22
as to produce in France.
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已经与法国持平。
到2018年，中国的
生产成本也将追上美国。
生产成本也将追上美国。
11:26
By 2018, manufacturing costs in China
will be on par with the US.
will be on par with the US.
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这次全新的工业革命
11:33
The new manufacturing revolution
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11:35
will accelerate the transition
of those emerging economies
of those emerging economies
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将会推动新兴经济体
转变为以国内消费主导的发展模型。
11:40
towards a model driven
by domestic consumption.
by domestic consumption.
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11:43
And this is good,
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1177
这是个好消息，
因为这将是未来经济增长的源泉。
11:44
because this is where growth
will be created.
will be created.
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未来五年，
11:47
In the next five years,
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11:49
the next billion consumers in China
will inject more growth in our economies
will inject more growth in our economies
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中国数十亿消费者将会为
我们的经济发展注入更多动力，
我们的经济发展注入更多动力，
比欧洲内五大市场加起来还要多。
11:54
than the top five
European markets together.
European markets together.
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对我们所有人而言，
第四次工业革命都是一次机遇。
第四次工业革命都是一次机遇。
11:59
This fourth manufacturing revolution
is a chance for all of us.
is a chance for all of us.
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12:05
If we play it right,
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如果我们正确运用它，
我们将会看到我们的经济持续发展。
12:07
we'll see sustainable growth
in all of our economies.
in all of our economies.
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这意味着分给我们
所有人的财富会增加，
所有人的财富会增加，
12:10
This means more wealth
distributed to all of us
distributed to all of us
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我们的孩子们也将
拥有一个更好的未来。
拥有一个更好的未来。
12:14
and a better future for our children.
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感谢各位！
12:17
Thank you.
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（掌声）
12:18
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Olivier Scalabre - Industrial systems thinkerBCG's Olivier Scalabre analyzes the evolution of large industrial companies' manufacturing footprint and operations.
Why you should listen
Olivier Scalabre heads BCG's Operations Practice for Western Europe, North Africa and South America. In the last three years, he launched BCG Ops Centers serving regions out of Paris, London, and Sao Paolo via 100 experts dedicated to manufacturing, supply chain, procurement and services operations across industries. As part of his career at BCG, Scalabre has worked both in mature and emerging markets, most notably out of the BCG New Delhi and BCG Paris offices.
As a senior partner, Scalabre supports large operations programs for industrial goods clients in multiple sectors. He is also responsible for the overall BCG relationship with clients focused on large-scale engineered products and projects.
Scalabre is a member of the management team of the BCG Paris Office. He is an engineer and studied at École Centrale Paris.
Olivier Scalabre | Speaker | TED.com