TEDxVienna
Paul Knoepfler: The ethical dilemma of designer babies
保罗·俄福勒: 设计婴儿的道德困境
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1,462,842 views
创造一个基因编辑的人类已经不再是科幻小说中出现的场景了，而是对未来真实生活画面的设想。生物学家保罗俄福勒预测，15年后，科学家们可以用基因编辑技术将人类胚胎“升级”——从改变人体相貌到防止自身免疫病的发生。在这场发人深思的演讲中，俄福勒向我们介绍了即将到来婴儿设计革命，以及这场革命可能引发的极私人的，无法预料的后果。
Paul Knoepfler - Biologist
Paul Knoepfler is a biomedical scientist and writer focusing on stem cells and genetics. Full bio
Paul Knoepfler is a biomedical scientist and writer focusing on stem cells and genetics. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So what if I could make for you
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假如说我可以给你设计一个婴儿，
00:15
a designer baby?
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那会怎么样？
假如你是一个设计婴儿的准父母
00:18
What if you as a parent-to-be
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00:20
and I as a scientist decided
to go down that road together?
to go down that road together?
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和我这个科学家一起尝试
婴儿设计的项目，那会怎么样？
婴儿设计的项目，那会怎么样？
00:26
What if we didn't?
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假如我们没决定一起尝试呢？
00:27
What if we thought, "That's a bad idea,"
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如果我们认为设计婴儿
真是一个不怎么样的想法呢，
真是一个不怎么样的想法呢，
00:30
but many of our family,
friends and coworkers
friends and coworkers
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而我们的很多
家人朋友还有同事，
家人朋友还有同事，
却决定尝试这个项目呢？
00:33
did make that decision?
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00:36
Let's fast-forward just 15 years from now.
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让我们设想在15年后。
00:39
Let's pretend it's the year 2030,
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假设现在是2030年，
而你已为人父母。
00:42
and you're a parent.
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00:44
You have your daughter,
Marianne, next to you,
Marianne, next to you,
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你的女儿玛丽安坐在你的身边，
00:48
and in 2030, she is what we call a natural
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在2030年，
她就是我们说的“自然人”，
她就是我们说的“自然人”，
00:51
because she has no genetic modifications.
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因为她没有进行过任何的基因改造。
00:55
And because you and your partner
consciously made that decision,
consciously made that decision,
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而因为你和你的伴侣有意识地
让你们的女儿成为“自然人”，
让你们的女儿成为“自然人”，
你总是被你社交圈子中的人瞧不起。
00:59
many in your social circle,
they kind of look down on you.
they kind of look down on you.
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他们认为你是一个勒德派成员
（反对技术进步的人），
（反对技术进步的人），
01:02
They think you're, like,
a Luddite or a technophobe.
a Luddite or a technophobe.
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或者是一个技术恐惧者。
01:07
Marianne's best friend Jenna,
who lives right next door,
who lives right next door,
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玛丽安最好的朋友
珍娜就住在你们隔壁。
珍娜就住在你们隔壁。
她的生活和你们的完全不一样。
01:10
is a very different story.
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01:12
She was born a genetically modified
designer baby with numerous upgrades.
designer baby with numerous upgrades.
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她出生时就是一个经过
基因改造设计出来的婴儿，
基因改造设计出来的婴儿，
并且有着很多改造升级。
01:20
Yeah. Upgrades.
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是的，改造升级。
01:22
And these enhancements were introduced
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而这些提升是由一个
01:25
using a new genetic
modification technology
modification technology
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新的基因编辑技术完成的，
01:28
that goes by the funny name CRISPR,
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这项技术有一个滑稽的名字‘脆脆鲜’，
（基因编辑技术，因音近crisp顾译为脆脆鲜）
（基因编辑技术，因音近crisp顾译为脆脆鲜）
01:31
you know, like something's crisp,
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你懂的，就好比某样东西又脆又鲜，
这个是‘脆脆鲜’（基因编辑技术）。
01:32
this is CRISPR.
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01:35
The scientist that Jenna's parents
hired to do this
hired to do this
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那个被珍娜的父母雇佣的科学家
得到了百万元的佣金，
01:38
for several million dollars
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01:41
introduced CRISPR
into a whole panel of human embryos.
into a whole panel of human embryos.
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把基因编辑
引入到了一个完整的人类胚胎层面。
引入到了一个完整的人类胚胎层面。
01:46
And then they used genetic testing,
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然后他们进行基因检测，
01:48
and they predicted that
that little tiny embryo, Jenna's embryo,
that little tiny embryo, Jenna's embryo,
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他们预测那个小小的胚胎
珍娜的胚胎
珍娜的胚胎
是一群胚胎里发育得最好的那一个。
01:52
would be the best of the bunch.
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01:55
And now, Jenna is an actual, real person.
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现在，珍娜是一个有肉体的
实实在在的人了。
实实在在的人了。
01:58
She's sitting on the carpet
in your living room
in your living room
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她正坐在你客厅里的地毯上，
正和你的女儿玛丽安一起玩。
02:01
playing with your daughter Marianne.
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02:05
And your families have known
each other for years now,
each other for years now,
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你们两家人从很久以前就认识了，
02:08
and it's become very clear to you
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而你很清楚的认识到
珍娜是不同于常人的。
02:10
that Jenna is extraordinary.
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02:13
She's incredibly intelligent.
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她超乎想象的聪明。
02:15
If you're honest with yourself,
she's smarter than you,
she's smarter than you,
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如果你足够诚实的话，
就会承认她甚至比你还要聪明，
就会承认她甚至比你还要聪明，
并且她只有五岁。
02:18
and she's five years old.
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02:21
She's beautiful, tall, athletic,
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她漂亮、修长、充满活力，
可以用来赞美她的话还有很多很多。
02:24
and the list goes on and on.
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02:28
And in fact, there's
a whole new generation
a whole new generation
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事实上，
现在已经有新一代的儿童
现在已经有新一代的儿童
是和珍娜一样是被基因改造的了。
02:30
of these GM kids like Jenna.
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02:33
And so far it looks like
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到目前为止他们看起来
02:36
they're healthier
than their parents' generation,
than their parents' generation,
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都比他们父母的那一代要更健康，
02:38
than your generation.
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都比你们这一代更健康。
他们在卫生保健方面花费更少。
02:40
And they have lower health care costs.
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02:44
They're immune to a host
of health conditions,
of health conditions,
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他们对很多的健康威胁都是免疫的，
这其中包括艾滋病和一些遗传疾病。
02:46
including HIV/AIDS and genetic diseases.
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02:51
It all sounds so great,
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这些听起来都很棒，
02:53
but you can't help but have
this sort of unsettling feeling,
this sort of unsettling feeling,
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但是你始终有些坐立不安，
直觉告诉你珍娜有些不对劲，
02:56
a gut feeling, that there's something
just not quite right about Jenna,
just not quite right about Jenna,
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03:02
and you've had the same feeling
about other GM kids that you've met.
about other GM kids that you've met.
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你见过其他一些经过基因改造的儿童 ，
有了同样的感觉。
有了同样的感觉。
03:07
You were also reading
in the newspaper earlier this week
in the newspaper earlier this week
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你读了这星期早些时候的报纸，
03:10
that a study of these children
who were born as designer babies
who were born as designer babies
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对于这些设计婴儿的研究
03:14
indicates they may have some issues,
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表明这其中可能存在一些问题，
03:16
like increased aggressiveness
and narcissism.
and narcissism.
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比如攻击性和自恋心理的增强。
03:21
But more immediately on your mind
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而你的脑海中蹦出的第一个想法
03:23
is some news that you just got
from Jenna's family.
from Jenna's family.
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是你从珍娜的家人那里得知的。
珍娜太过聪明了，
03:27
She's so smart,
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她现在要去到一个特殊学校，
03:28
she's now going to be going
to a special school,
to a special school,
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那个学校和你女儿的学校不太一样，
03:31
a different school
than your daughter Marianne,
than your daughter Marianne,
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这则消息把你们一家搞得乱成一团。
03:34
and this is kind of throwing
your family into a disarray.
your family into a disarray.
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玛丽安开始大哭起来，
03:37
Marianne's been crying,
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昨天晚上，当你把你的女儿带去睡觉
准备亲吻她说晚安的时候，
准备亲吻她说晚安的时候，
03:39
and last night when you took her to bed
to kiss her goodnight,
to kiss her goodnight,
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她问，“爸爸，珍娜以后
还会是我的好朋友吗？”
还会是我的好朋友吗？”
03:42
she said, "Daddy, will Jenna
even be my friend anymore?"
even be my friend anymore?"
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03:48
So now, as I've been telling you
this imagined 2030 story,
this imagined 2030 story,
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现在，就好像我向你们
描述的2030故事一样，
描述的2030故事一样，
我感到我可能把你们其中的一些人
03:52
I have a feeling
that I may have put some of you
that I may have put some of you
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带进了一个科学小说的
参照框架。是吗？
参照框架。是吗？
03:54
into this sci-fi
frame of reference. Right?
frame of reference. Right?
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你认为自己正在读一本科幻小说。
03:57
You think you're reading a sci-fi book.
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或者是，把自己调到了
万圣节晚上的思考模式。
万圣节晚上的思考模式。
03:59
Or maybe, like,
in Halloween mode of thinking.
in Halloween mode of thinking.
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但这真的可能在短短15年之后
04:02
But this is really
a possible reality for us,
a possible reality for us,
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变成现实。
04:05
just 15 years from now.
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04:07
I'm a stem cell and genetics researcher
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我是一个基因和干细胞的研究者，
我能够设想出这个新的CRISPR技术，
04:10
and I can see this new CRISPR technology
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和它的潜在影响。
04:13
and its potential impact.
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04:15
And we may find ourselves in that reality,
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我们会发现在那个现实中的很多事，
都是基于我们现在做出的决定。
04:19
and a lot will depend
on what we decide to do today.
on what we decide to do today.
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04:23
And if you're still
kind of thinking in sci-fi mode,
kind of thinking in sci-fi mode,
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如果你还认为这是一部科幻小说的话，
想想今年早些时候
科学界有一个爆炸性的新闻，
科学界有一个爆炸性的新闻，
04:26
consider that the world of science
had a huge shock earlier this year,
had a huge shock earlier this year,
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而大部分的群众对此一无所知。
04:31
and the public largely
doesn't even know about it.
doesn't even know about it.
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几个月前，中国的研究者
04:33
Researchers in China just a few months ago
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发布了一个 已经创造出的
经过基因改造的人类胚胎。
经过基因改造的人类胚胎。
04:36
reported the creation
of genetically modified human embryos.
of genetically modified human embryos.
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这可是从古至今第一次。
04:41
This was the first time in history.
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他们就是通过CRISPR完成的。
04:44
And they did it using
this new CRISPR technology.
this new CRISPR technology.
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04:47
It didn't work perfectly,
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结果并不是很完美，
但我依旧认为
他们打开了那个微开着的门
他们打开了那个微开着的门
04:49
but I still think
they sort of cracked the door ajar
they sort of cracked the door ajar
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打开了潘多拉的魔盒。
04:52
on a Pandora's box here.
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04:56
And I think some people
are going to run with this technology
are going to run with this technology
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我相信有些人
会更加努力地研究这项技术
会更加努力地研究这项技术
并且尝试婴儿设计。
04:59
and try to make designer babies.
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05:02
Now, before I go on, some of you
may hold up your hands and say,
may hold up your hands and say,
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现在，在我继续演讲之前，
你们有些人可能会举手说
你们有些人可能会举手说
“停下，保罗，等一下
05:05
"Stop, Paul, wait a minute.
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这项技术难道不会违法吗？
05:07
Wouldn't that be illegal?
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你不能只是随随便便的
创造出了一个设计婴儿。”
创造出了一个设计婴儿。”
05:09
You can't just go off
and create a designer baby."
and create a designer baby."
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05:13
And in fact, to some extent, you're right.
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是的，从某种程度上来说，
你考虑的很对。
你考虑的很对。
在一些国家，
这项研究是不被允许的。
这项研究是不被允许的。
05:15
In some countries, you couldn't do that.
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05:18
But in many other countries,
including my country, the US,
including my country, the US,
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但在其他很多国家，
包括我的国家，美国，
包括我的国家，美国，
并没有关于这项研究的法律，
所以从理论上来说，设计婴儿是可以的。
所以从理论上来说，设计婴儿是可以的。
05:21
there's actually no law on this,
so in theory, you could do it.
so in theory, you could do it.
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05:26
And there was another development
this year that resonates in this area,
this year that resonates in this area,
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今年，有另一个研究取得了新的进展
在整个领域引起了强烈反响，
在整个领域引起了强烈反响，
就发生在离这里不远的英国。
05:31
and that happened
not so far from here over in the UK.
not so far from here over in the UK.
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05:34
And the UK traditionally
has been the strictest country
has been the strictest country
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英国从传统来看，
一直是最严格的国家，
一直是最严格的国家，
05:37
when it comes to human
genetic modification.
genetic modification.
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在人类基因编辑技术这件事上。
这在英国被认为是违法的。
05:40
It was illegal there,
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但就在几个月前，
05:42
but just a few months ago,
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他们在这项规则上做了一个特例。
05:44
they carved out an exception to that rule.
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他们通过了新的法律，
05:46
They passed a new law
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允许研制创造基因编辑出的人类
05:48
allowing the creation
of genetically modified humans
of genetically modified humans
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以“防御一种稀有遗传疾病”为高尚理由。
05:51
with the noble goal of trying
to prevent a rare kind of genetic disease.
to prevent a rare kind of genetic disease.
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05:56
But still I think in combination
these events are pushing us
these events are pushing us
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但我始终认为，
这些事件综合起来是在推动我们
这些事件综合起来是在推动我们
对基因编辑技术
06:00
further towards an acceptance
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采取更加包容的态度。
06:02
of human genetic modification.
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06:05
So I've been talking
about this CRISPR technology.
about this CRISPR technology.
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我一直在谈论这个CRISPR。
那到底什么是基因编辑技术是CRISPR？
06:08
What actually is CRISPR?
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06:11
So if you think about the GMOs
that we're all more familiar with,
that we're all more familiar with,
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如果是转基因呢，
我们对转基因都很熟悉，
我们对转基因都很熟悉，
好比转基因番茄和小麦
06:14
like GMO tomatoes and wheat
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以及其它转基因的生物，
06:17
and things like that,
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这项技术与
06:19
this technology
is similar to the technologies
is similar to the technologies
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用来转基因的技术很像，
06:22
that were used to make those,
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但有着更加显著的优势，
06:24
but it's dramatically better,
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那就是花费少且耗时短。
06:26
cheaper and faster.
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06:30
So what is it?
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所以这到底是什么？
这其实像是一个
基因型的军用瑞士刀。
基因型的军用瑞士刀。
06:31
It's actually like
a genetic Swiss army knife.
a genetic Swiss army knife.
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我们假装这是一个军用瑞士刀，
06:34
We can pretend this is a Swiss army knife
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一把小刀包含了很多的工具，
06:36
with different tools in it,
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其中一个工具有点像放大镜，
06:37
and one of the tools
is kind of like a magnifying glass
is kind of like a magnifying glass
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或者是DNA（脱氧核糖核苷酸）
的GPS（全球卫星定位系统），
的GPS（全球卫星定位系统），
06:40
or a GPS for our DNA,
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06:43
so it can home in on a certain spot.
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所以基因
可以被编辑到特定的DNA区域。
可以被编辑到特定的DNA区域。
下一个工具有点像剪刀，
06:46
And the next tool is like scissors
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能够把DNA的特定区域剪断。
06:48
that can cut the DNA right in that spot.
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最后一个工具是笔，
06:51
And finally we have a pen
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用来在特定区域
对遗传密码重新编辑。
对遗传密码重新编辑。
06:53
where we can literally rewrite
the genetic code in that location.
the genetic code in that location.
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就是这么简单。
06:57
It's really that simple.
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06:59
And this technology, which came
on the scene just three years ago,
on the scene just three years ago,
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而这项技术在三年前登上舞台，
用暴风雨般的力量席卷了整个科学界。
07:03
has taken science by storm.
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07:06
It's evolving so fast, and it's
so freaking exciting to scientists,
so freaking exciting to scientists,
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它发展的如此之快，
科学家对此真是兴奋异常，
科学家对此真是兴奋异常，
我必须承认我也被它深深吸引着，
我自己的实验室里也在使用这项技术，
我自己的实验室里也在使用这项技术，
07:10
and I admit I'm fascinated by it
and we use it in my own lab,
and we use it in my own lab,
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07:15
that I think someone
is going to go that extra step
is going to go that extra step
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我认为有人应该再迈出一步，
继续研究基因编辑人类胚胎技术
07:18
and continue the GM human embryo work
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或者研究婴儿设计。
07:21
and maybe make designer babies.
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07:25
This is so ubiquitous now.
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现在这项技术已经无处不在了。
而它才发展了仅仅三年。
07:26
It just came on the scene three years ago.
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上千家实验室正在着手做这项技术，
07:29
Thousands of labs
literally have this in hand today,
literally have this in hand today,
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他们正做着至关重要的研究。
07:33
and they're doing important research.
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他们中很大一部分，
虽然对设计婴儿都不太感兴趣，
虽然对设计婴儿都不太感兴趣，
07:35
Most of them are not interested
in designer babies.
in designer babies.
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但他们正在研究人类疾病
07:38
They're studying human disease
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以及科学中的其他重要问题。
07:41
and other important elements of science.
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所以现在关于基因编辑技术
有很多好的研究。
有很多好的研究。
07:43
So there's a lot of good research
going on with CRISPR.
going on with CRISPR.
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07:47
And the fact that we can
now do genetic modifications
now do genetic modifications
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事实表明，我们现在能够做的
是曾经需要很多年，花很多钱，
07:50
that used to take years
and cost millions of dollars
and cost millions of dollars
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现在只需要
几星期和几千块的基因编辑，
几星期和几千块的基因编辑，
07:54
in a few weeks
for a couple thousand bucks,
for a couple thousand bucks,
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这对于我，一个科学家来说
是个天大的好事，
是个天大的好事，
07:57
to me as a scientist that's fantastic,
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但同时，别忘了，
07:59
but again, at the same time,
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这为另一些人打开了新世界的大门。
08:01
it opens the door to people going too far.
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08:05
And I think for some people
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我想，对一些人来说，
关注的重心已经不是科学了。
08:06
the focus is not going to be
so much on science.
so much on science.
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科学研究不是他们的驱动力，
08:09
That's not what's going
to be driving them.
to be driving them.
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而是他们的意识形态
或者说是对利益的追求。
或者说是对利益的追求。
08:11
It's going to be ideology
or the chase for a profit.
or the chase for a profit.
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08:16
And they're going to go
for designer babies.
for designer babies.
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他们会直接去研究婴儿设计。
08:20
So why should we be concerned about this?
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所以我们为什么要关心这些东西？
从达尔文那里我们知道
我们现在的人性
我们现在的人性
08:24
We know from Darwin,
if we go back two centuries,
if we go back two centuries,
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被两个世纪以来的自然演变和基因学
08:27
that evolution and genetics
profoundly have impacted humanity,
profoundly have impacted humanity,
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深深影响着。
08:31
who we are today.
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现在依旧有些人认为我们现在的世界
还在被一个社会达尔文学
还在被一个社会达尔文学
08:33
And some think there's like
a social Darwinism at work in our world,
a social Darwinism at work in our world,
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或者是优生学所支配。
08:37
and maybe even a eugenics as well.
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08:40
Imagine those trends, those forces,
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想想这些人所引领的趋势，
这些人的力量，
这些人的力量，
再加上基因编辑技术
强大而又广泛的推力
强大而又广泛的推力
08:44
with a booster rocket
of this CRISPR technology
of this CRISPR technology
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所带来的影响将是不可忽视的。
08:47
that is so powerful and so ubiquitous.
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08:51
And in fact, we can just go back
one century to the last century
one century to the last century
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事实上，
我们只需要聚焦一百年前，上个世纪
我们只需要聚焦一百年前，上个世纪
去见识优生学的力量。
08:54
to see the power that eugenics can have.
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08:58
So my father, Peter Knoepfler,
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我的父亲，彼得·俄福勒，
就是在这里，维也纳，出生的。
09:01
was actually born right here in Vienna.
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他是个维也纳人，生于1929年。
09:04
He was Viennese,
and he was born here in 1929.
and he was born here in 1929.
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当我的祖父母抱着小彼得的时候，
09:08
And when my grandparents
had little baby Peter,
had little baby Peter,
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对他们来说整个世界都不一样了。
09:12
the world was very different. Right?
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维也纳不一样了。
09:14
It was a different Vienna.
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美国也不一样了。
09:15
The United States was different.
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整个世界都不一样了。
09:17
The world was different.
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优生学正在兴起，
09:18
There was a eugenics rising,
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而我的祖父母，
09:20
and my grandparents realized,
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我认为他们应该很快就明白过来了，
09:23
pretty quickly I think,
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他们站在了优生学的对立位。
09:24
that they were on the wrong side
of the eugenics equation.
of the eugenics equation.
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09:28
And so despite this being their home
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因此，
尽管维也纳是他们三人的小家，
尽管维也纳是他们三人的小家，
他们整个大家庭的大家，
09:31
and their whole extended family's home,
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他们世世代代所居住的家，
09:33
and this area being their family's
home for generations,
home for generations,
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就因为他们没有遵循优生学，
09:37
they decided because of eugenics
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他们选择离开这个地方。
09:40
that they had to leave.
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09:42
And they survived,
but they were heartbroken,
but they were heartbroken,
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他们虽然活了下来，
但活得很痛苦，
但活得很痛苦，
并且我不确定
我的父亲是否放下了对维也纳的不舍。
我的父亲是否放下了对维也纳的不舍。
09:44
and I'm not sure my dad
ever really got over leaving Vienna.
ever really got over leaving Vienna.
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他在1938年就离开了，
09:49
He left when he was just eight years old
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那时他才八岁。
09:51
in 1938.
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09:54
So today, I see a new eugenics
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今天，我看到了一种新的优生学
重新浮出水面。
09:57
kind of bubbling to the surface.
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我认为这会是一个
更加友好、温和、积极的优生学，
更加友好、温和、积极的优生学，
10:00
It's supposed to be a kinder,
gentler, positive eugenics,
gentler, positive eugenics,
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应该跟过去那些东西不一样。
10:05
different than all that past stuff.
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10:08
But I think even though it's focused
on trying to improve people,
on trying to improve people,
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但是我想，就算新优生学
是为了将人类变得更好，
是为了将人类变得更好，
它依旧会导致一些负面的结果，
10:12
it could have negative consequences,
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这些都让我很担心。
10:15
and it really worries me
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一些新优生学的支持者，
10:16
that some of the top proponents
of this new eugenics,
of this new eugenics,
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他们认为CRISPR
是让新优生学发生的唯一重要因素。
是让新优生学发生的唯一重要因素。
10:19
they think CRISPR is the ticket
to make it happen.
to make it happen.
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10:24
So I have to admit, you know,
201
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我在这里必须承认，
我们所讨论的将人类变得更好，
也就是优生学，
也就是优生学，
10:26
eugenics, we talk
about making better people.
about making better people.
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是一个很复杂的问题。
10:29
It's a tough question.
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当我们谈论将人类变得更好的时候，
对于“更好”的定义是什么？
对于“更好”的定义是什么？
10:30
What is better when we're talking
about a human being?
about a human being?
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10:34
But I admit I think maybe a lot of us
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我认为我们中的很多人都同意，
我们对个人的社会地位和经济水平
10:37
could agree that human beings,
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应当有一个提高。
10:40
maybe we could use a little betterment.
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1976
看看我们的政客就知道，
10:42
Look at our politicians
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无论是在维也纳还是在美国——
10:44
here, you know, back in the US --
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当然上帝现在不允许
我们俄福勒家族的人到美国去了。
我们俄福勒家族的人到美国去了。
10:46
God forbid we go there right now.
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或许我们只需要简单的看向镜子里，
10:50
Maybe even if we just look in the mirror,
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1976
我们一定有办法，
让镜子里的那个人变得更好。
让镜子里的那个人变得更好。
10:52
there might be ways
we think we could be better.
we think we could be better.
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坦诚的对大家说，我很希望
我在这有更多的头发而不是秃顶。
我在这有更多的头发而不是秃顶。
10:54
I might wish, honestly, that I had
more hair here, instead of baldness.
more hair here, instead of baldness.
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642600
4816
有些人可能
会希望他们的个子更高一些，
会希望他们的个子更高一些，
10:59
Some people might wish they were taller,
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2536
或者有不一样的体重，
不一样的面孔。
不一样的面孔。
11:02
have a different weight, a different face.
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11:05
If we could do those things,
we could make those things happen,
we could make those things happen,
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如果我们能够使用那些技术，
那我们刚刚设想的就都能实现，
那我们刚刚设想的就都能实现，
或者我们的设想
能在我们的孩子身上实现，
能在我们的孩子身上实现，
11:09
or we could make them happen
in our children,
in our children,
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这将会是非常有吸引力的。
11:11
it would be very seductive.
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11:14
And yet coming with it
would be these risks.
would be these risks.
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但同时还会伴随着风险的发生。
我刚刚谈论了优生学，
11:16
I talked about eugenics,
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但对于个体来说始终存在着风险。
11:18
but there would be risks
to individuals as well.
to individuals as well.
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所以如果我们先不考虑优化人类，
11:21
So if we forget about enhancing people
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而单单考虑用基因编辑技术
将人类变得更健康的话，
将人类变得更健康的话，
11:24
and we just try to make them
healthier using genetic modification,
healthier using genetic modification,
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那么这将是一项全新的，
11:28
this technology is so new
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并且有着巨大作用的技术，
11:31
and so powerful,
225
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11:32
that by accident
we could make them sicker.
we could make them sicker.
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但只要有一点点操作不小心，
这项技术的功能就无法完全发挥。
这项技术的功能就无法完全发挥。
11:36
That easily could happen.
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这很容易就能发生。
还有另一个风险，
11:38
And there's another risk,
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那就是对婴儿设计
没有兴趣的前提下，
没有兴趣的前提下，
11:39
and that is that all of the legitimate,
important genetic modification research
important genetic modification research
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所有重要的、合法的
11:44
going on just in the lab --
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基因编辑技术研究
都是在实验室里完成的——
都是在实验室里完成的——
11:46
again, no interest in designer babies --
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很少一部分人的研究是关于婴儿设计，
11:49
a few people going
the designer baby route,
the designer baby route,
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事情的发展不太乐观，
11:52
things go badly,
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整个领域都可能会被破坏。
11:53
that entire field could be damaged.
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11:57
I also think it's not that unlikely
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我认为这样
会使政府开始关注基因编辑。
11:59
that governments might start taking
an interest in genetic modification.
an interest in genetic modification.
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12:04
So for example our imagined GM Jenna child
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用我们想象出的更健康的
基因编辑儿童珍娜做个例子，
12:09
who is healthier,
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如果有像珍娜的一代人，
他们不再需要高昂的医疗保健费用，
他们不再需要高昂的医疗保健费用，
12:11
if there's a generation that looks
like they have lower health care costs,
like they have lower health care costs,
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那么政府就很有可能开始强迫市民
12:15
it's possible that governments
may start trying to compel their citizens
may start trying to compel their citizens
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都开始尝试基因编辑。
12:19
to go the GM route.
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看看中国的计划生育政策。
12:21
Look at China's one-child policy.
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它阻止了4亿人口的增长。
12:23
It's thought that that prevented
the birth of 400 million human beings.
the birth of 400 million human beings.
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12:30
So it's not beyond the realm of possible
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所以基因编辑
并不是一个理想化的存在，
并不是一个理想化的存在，
12:33
that genetic modification
could be something that governments push.
could be something that governments push.
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而是可以在政府的推动下
顺利实行的。
顺利实行的。
如果婴儿编辑在现在这样一个
12:37
And if designer babies become popular,
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有着营销视频、社交媒体的
12:40
in our digital age --
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数字化时代进行推广的话会怎么样，
12:42
viral videos, social media --
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如果设计婴儿被看做新的上层人士，
12:45
what if designer babies
are thought to be fashionable,
are thought to be fashionable,
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新的卡戴珊家族，
12:47
and they kind of become
the new glitterati,
the new glitterati,
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这些时尚潮流的话又会怎么样？
12:50
the new Kardashians or something?
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（笑声）
12:51
(Laughter)
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1016
这些难道不是我们可以控制的趋势吗？
12:52
You know, are those trends
that we really could control?
that we really could control?
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我不是在说我们一定可以。
12:57
I'm not convinced that we could.
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13:00
So again, today it's Halloween
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今天是万圣节，
我们在这里讨论了基因编辑技术，
13:03
and when we talk
about genetic modification,
about genetic modification,
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当谈论到与万圣节有关的人物时，
13:06
there's one Halloween-associated character
257
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就一定会提到一个人物，
13:09
that is talked about
or invoked more than anything else,
or invoked more than anything else,
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那就是弗兰肯斯坦
（科幻小说中人物）。
（科幻小说中人物）。
13:12
and that is Frankenstein.
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1840
13:14
Mostly that's been Frankenfoods
and all this other stuff.
and all this other stuff.
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讨论的内容
就是那些转基因食品什么的。
就是那些转基因食品什么的。
但如果我们现在把这些东西
带入到人类环境的氛围中想想，
带入到人类环境的氛围中想想，
13:19
But if we think about this now
and we think about it in the human context
and we think about it in the human context
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在万圣节，
13:23
on a day like Halloween,
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父母亲如果能够从本质上
用基因来“装扮”自己的孩子的话，
用基因来“装扮”自己的孩子的话，
13:24
if parents can in essence
costume their children genetically,
costume their children genetically,
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那我们现在说的
就是2.0版的弗兰肯斯坦了。
就是2.0版的弗兰肯斯坦了。
13:30
are we going to be talking about
a Frankenstein 2.0 kind of situation?
a Frankenstein 2.0 kind of situation?
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13:36
I don't think so. I don't think
it's going to get to that extreme.
it's going to get to that extreme.
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我其实不认为我们
会到弗兰肯斯坦这么极端的状况，
会到弗兰肯斯坦这么极端的状况，
但是当我们要做的事情
是黑了人类代码的时候，
是黑了人类代码的时候，
13:39
But when we are going about
hacking the human code,
hacking the human code,
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我认为任何关于此类事件的猜测
都应该停止了。
都应该停止了。
13:43
I think all bets are off
in terms of what might come of that.
in terms of what might come of that.
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一定会有危险存在。
13:46
There would still be dangers.
268
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13:49
And we can look in the past
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我们可以回望过去，
看看其他的因素
或者是那些革命性的科学，
或者是那些革命性的科学，
13:51
to other elements
of transformative science
of transformative science
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看看它们是如何挣脱控制，
13:53
and see how they can
basically go out of control
basically go out of control
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渗透到整个社会当中的。
13:57
and permeate society.
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13:59
So I'll just give you one example,
and that is in vitro fertilization.
and that is in vitro fertilization.
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我给你们举一个关于体外受精的例子。
14:04
Almost exactly 40 years ago,
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四十年前吧，
我应该可以确定就是四十年前，
我应该可以确定就是四十年前，
露易·丝布朗，
第一个试管婴儿出生了，
第一个试管婴儿出生了，
14:08
test tube baby number one
Louise Brown was born,
Louise Brown was born,
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真是一个可喜可贺的事情，
14:11
and that's a great thing,
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从那时起，大概有五百万个
通过试管受精的婴儿出生了，
通过试管受精的婴儿出生了，
14:13
and I think since then
five million IVF babies have been born,
five million IVF babies have been born,
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带来了不可估量的喜悦。
14:18
bringing immeasurable happiness.
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它使得一些父母
有机会爱他们的孩子。
有机会爱他们的孩子。
14:20
A lot of parents now can love those kids.
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但是如果仔细想想
在短短四十年间，
在短短四十年间，
14:23
But if you think about it,
in four decades,
in four decades,
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五百万个婴儿
是用一种新的技术生出来的，
是用一种新的技术生出来的，
14:25
five million babies being born
from a new technology
from a new technology
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这是很了不起的，
14:29
is pretty remarkable,
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而同样的事情也有可能发生，
14:31
and the same kind of thing could happen
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只要我们运用人类基因编辑技术 ，
只要我们接受婴儿设计。
只要我们接受婴儿设计。
14:33
with human genetic modification
and designer babies.
and designer babies.
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所以基于我们在未来几个月
或者是未来几年当中
或者是未来几年当中
14:37
So depending on the decisions
we make in the next few months,
we make in the next few months,
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会做出的决定，
14:40
the next year or so,
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如果第一个设计婴儿可以出生，
14:41
if designer baby number one is born,
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那么只需要几十年不到，
14:44
within a few decades,
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14:46
there could well be millions
of genetically modified humans.
of genetically modified humans.
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就会有数以百万计的基因编辑人类。
14:49
And there's a difference there too,
because if we, you in the audience, or I,
because if we, you in the audience, or I,
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但设计婴儿与试管婴儿也有不同之处，
因为如果我们
因为如果我们
不论是坐在观众席的你们，还是我，
如果我们决定拥有一个设计婴儿，
如果我们决定拥有一个设计婴儿，
14:54
if we decide to have a designer baby,
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14:57
then their children will also
be genetically modified, and so on,
be genetically modified, and so on,
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那么他们的孩子及后代也都会是
被基因编辑了的，
被基因编辑了的，
因为这项技术是可遗传的。
15:01
because it's heritable.
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所以，这与试管婴儿
也是有很大区别的。
也是有很大区别的。
15:02
So that's a big difference.
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15:05
So with all of this in mind,
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现在我们已经
考虑到了这么多问题，
考虑到了这么多问题，
我们应该做些什么？
15:07
what should we do?
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15:10
There's actually going to be a meeting
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实际上在距离明天还有一个月时间，
关于这个问题
关于这个问题
在华盛顿特区会有一个会议
15:11
a month from tomorrow in Washington, D.C.
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由美国国家科学院举办的，
15:14
by the US National Academy of Sciences
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就我们应该做什么
这个问题做一个细致的讨论。
这个问题做一个细致的讨论。
15:16
to tackle that exact question.
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在人类基因编辑这条道路上，
怎么走才是正确的？
怎么走才是正确的？
15:19
What is the right path forward
with human genetic modification?
with human genetic modification?
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15:24
I believe at this time
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我个人相信此时此刻，
我们需要暂停一下。
15:26
we need a moratorium.
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我们应该禁止这件事情。
15:27
We have to ban this.
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我们不应该允许
基因编辑的人类被创造出来，
基因编辑的人类被创造出来，
15:29
We should not allow
creating genetically modified people,
creating genetically modified people,
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因为那太危险了，
并且一切都是未知的。
并且一切都是未知的。
15:33
because it's just too dangerous
and too unpredictable.
and too unpredictable.
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15:37
But there's a lot of people --
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但是还有很多人——
（鼓掌）
15:38
(Applause)
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谢谢。
15:40
Thanks.
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（鼓掌）
15:41
(Applause)
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15:47
And let me say, just as a scientist,
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请允许我说，
很多人作为一个科学家，
很多人作为一个科学家，
对我来说在
公共场合这样说是一个很可怕的事，
公共场合这样说是一个很可怕的事，
15:50
it's a little bit scary
for me to say that in public,
for me to say that in public,
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因为科学并不简简单单的
是自我调节那么简单。
是自我调节那么简单。
15:52
because science generally doesn't like
self-regulation and things like that.
self-regulation and things like that.
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5240
15:59
So I think we need to put a hold on this,
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所以我认为我们需要暂停一下，
但有很多人不仅不赞同我的说法，
16:02
but there are many people
who not only disagree with me,
who not only disagree with me,
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想的还跟我恰好相反。
16:05
they feel the exact opposite.
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他们就好像，踩油门，加油冲，
16:06
They're like, step on the gas,
full speed ahead,
full speed ahead,
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来吧，来做婴儿设计吧。
16:10
let's make designer babies.
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所以在十二月份的那个会议上，
16:11
And so in the meeting in December
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以及在未来几个月的会议上，
16:14
and other meetings that are likely
to follow in the next few months,
to follow in the next few months,
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很有可能不会有任何的暂停。
16:18
it's very possible
there may be no moratorium.
there may be no moratorium.
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我认为，我们现在问题的
一部分就是
一部分就是
16:21
And I think part
of the problem that we have
of the problem that we have
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这些趋势，
16:24
is that all of this trend,
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这个应用在人类身上的
基因编辑的革命，
基因编辑的革命，
16:26
this revolution in genetic modification
applying to humans,
applying to humans,
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还没有被公共所熟知。
16:30
the public hasn't known about it.
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目前为止还没有人说，
16:32
Nobody has been saying,
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看啊，大事要发生了，
有一场革命呢，
有一场革命呢，
16:34
look, this is a big deal,
this is a revolution,
this is a revolution,
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这场革命会对我们每个人的
方方面面产生影响。
方方面面产生影响。
16:38
and this could affect you
in very personal ways.
in very personal ways.
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16:40
And so part of my goal
is actually to change that
is actually to change that
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所以我目标的一部分
就是改变这个现状，
就是改变这个现状，
去教育大众并与大家紧密联系，
16:43
and to educate and engage with the public
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让大家都在讨论基因编辑。
16:46
and get you guys talking about this.
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16:49
And so I hope at these meetings
that there will be a role for the public
that there will be a role for the public
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我同时也希望这些会议
能够给公众一个位置，
能够给公众一个位置，
使公众的声音也能够被听到。
16:53
to bring their voice to bear as well.
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16:57
So if we kind of circle back now
to 2030 again, that imagined story,
to 2030 again, that imagined story,
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4560
所以我们现在
回到那个假设故事里的2030年，
回到那个假设故事里的2030年，
17:03
and depending on the decisions
we make, again, today --
we make, again, today --
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由于我们今天做出的决定，
毫不夸张的说，
我们并没有多少做决定的时间了——
我们并没有多少做决定的时间了——
17:06
literally we don't have a lot of time --
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1936
就在接下来的几个月或者几年，
17:08
in the next few months,
the next year or so,
the next year or so,
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因为这项技术就像野火一样在蔓延。
17:10
because this technology
is spreading like wildfire.
is spreading like wildfire.
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17:13
Let's pretend we're back in that reality.
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让我们假装回到了那个“现实”。
17:16
We're at a park,
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我们在公园里，
我们的孩子在荡秋千，
17:18
and our kid is swinging on the swing.
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17:22
Is that kid a regular old kid,
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那是一个普通的孩子，
还是我们所决定的被设计出的孩子？
17:25
or did we decide to have a designer baby?
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17:28
And let's say we went
the sort of traditional route,
the sort of traditional route,
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假如我们选择的是传统的路线，
那边是我们的孩子在荡秋千，
17:32
and there's our kid swinging on the swing,
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17:34
and frankly, they're kind of a mess.
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坦白来说，他们有些乱糟糟的。
他们的头发，
就好像我的一样到处都是。
就好像我的一样到处都是。
17:37
Their hair is all over
the place like mine.
the place like mine.
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17:40
They have a stuffy nose.
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他们有一个不通气的鼻子。
他们不是世界上最好的学生。
17:42
They're not the best student in the world.
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17:45
They're adorable, you love them,
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他们很可爱，你也爱他们，
但在他们旁边的秋千上，
17:47
but there on the swing next to them,
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他们最好的朋友是基因编辑孩子，
17:49
their best friend is a GM kid,
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他们就好像这样在荡秋千，
17:52
and the two of them
are kind of swinging like this,
are kind of swinging like this,
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那你就会情不自禁的
把他们作比较，对吧？
把他们作比较，对吧？
17:54
and you can't help
but compare them, right?
but compare them, right?
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17:56
And the GM kid is swinging higher,
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基因编辑出的孩子荡的更高些，
17:59
they look better,
they're a better student,
they're a better student,
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他们看起来更好，他们是个好学生，
他们没有需要你擦的不通气的鼻子。
18:01
they don't have that stuffy nose
you need to wipe.
you need to wipe.
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这会让你感到什么，
18:04
How is that going to make you feel
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如果再给你一次机会，
你会怎么选择？
你会怎么选择？
18:06
and what decision
might you make next time?
might you make next time?
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谢谢。
18:10
Thank you.
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18:12
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Knoepfler - BiologistPaul Knoepfler is a biomedical scientist and writer focusing on stem cells and genetics.
Why you should listen
Dr. Paul Knoepfler loves stem cells. He is working to figure out how we use safely them to treat many diseases and how stem cells sometimes turn to the dark side to cause cancer. Over the years he has made key discoveries about how stem cells and cancer are programmed. Now he is especially interested in how to hack these cells to control their behavior, including using powerful CRISPR genetic modification technology.
Knoepfler has also been a leading voice in the discussion about how CRISPR could be used to make designer babies and the risks of going down that path. He is a professor of cell biology and anatomy at UC Davis School of Medicine in California, where he both does research and teaches. In addition, he is a prolific writer including his popular science blog, The Niche, and two books: Stem Cells: An Insider's Guide and GMO Sapiens: The Life-Changing Science of Designer Babies. He is excited about contributing to efforts to build an innovative, global community of interconnected people with a shared passion for biomedical science and battling fake science. Knoepfler’s outspoken, approachable nature in tackling some of the most transformative questions in science has made him a go-to scientist for journalists and ordinary people across the globe.
Paul Knoepfler | Speaker | TED.com