TEDxVienna
Paul Knoepfler: The ethical dilemma of designer babies
Pol Nofler (Paul Knoepfler): Etička dilema dizajniranja beba
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Stvaranje genetski modifikovanih ljudi više nije naučnofantastična fantazija; to je izgledan budući scenario. Biolog Pol Nofler procenjuje da bi za petnaest godina naučnici mogli da koriste tehnologiju redigovanja gena CRISPR kako bi napravili izvesna "unapređenja" na ljudskom embrionu - od izmene fizičkog izgleda do eliminacije rzika od autoimunih bolesti. U ovom govoru, koji izaziva na razmišljanje, Nofler nas priprema za predstojeću revoluciju dizajniranih beba i njene veoma lične i nepredvidljive posledice.
Paul Knoepfler - Biologist
Paul Knoepfler is a biomedical scientist and writer focusing on stem cells and genetics. Full bio
Paul Knoepfler is a biomedical scientist and writer focusing on stem cells and genetics. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So what if I could make for you
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Šta kad bih mogao da vam napravim
00:15
a designer baby?
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dizajniranu bebu?
00:18
What if you as a parent-to-be
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Šta kad bi ste vi kao budući roditelj,
00:20
and I as a scientist decided
to go down that road together?
to go down that road together?
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i ja kao naučnik, odlučili
da zajedno krenemo tim putem?
da zajedno krenemo tim putem?
00:26
What if we didn't?
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Šta ako ne bismo?
00:27
What if we thought, "That's a bad idea,"
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Šta ako bismo mislili: "To je loša ideja",
00:30
but many of our family,
friends and coworkers
friends and coworkers
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ali mnogi iz naše porodice,
naši prijatelji i kolege
naši prijatelji i kolege
00:33
did make that decision?
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su doneli tu odluku?
00:36
Let's fast-forward just 15 years from now.
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Premotajmo samo 15 godina unapred.
00:39
Let's pretend it's the year 2030,
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Pretvarajmo se da je 2030. godina
00:42
and you're a parent.
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i vi ste roditelj.
00:44
You have your daughter,
Marianne, next to you,
Marianne, next to you,
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Vaša kćerka Marijana je pored vas,
00:48
and in 2030, she is what we call a natural
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a 2030. ona je ono što bismo
nazvali prirodnim
nazvali prirodnim
00:51
because she has no genetic modifications.
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jer nema genetske modifikacije.
00:55
And because you and your partner
consciously made that decision,
consciously made that decision,
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A zato što ste vi i vaš partner
svesno doneli tu odluku,
svesno doneli tu odluku,
00:59
many in your social circle,
they kind of look down on you.
they kind of look down on you.
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mnogi iz vašeg društvenog kruga
vas gledaju s nipodaštavanjem.
vas gledaju s nipodaštavanjem.
01:02
They think you're, like,
a Luddite or a technophobe.
a Luddite or a technophobe.
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Smatraju vas luditom ili tehnofobom.
01:07
Marianne's best friend Jenna,
who lives right next door,
who lives right next door,
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Marijanina najbolja prijateljica Džena,
koja živi u komšiluku,
koja živi u komšiluku,
01:10
is a very different story.
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je potpuno druga priča.
01:12
She was born a genetically modified
designer baby with numerous upgrades.
designer baby with numerous upgrades.
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Rođena je kao genetski modifikovana
dizajnerska beba s brojnim unapređenjima.
dizajnerska beba s brojnim unapređenjima.
01:20
Yeah. Upgrades.
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Da. Unapređenjima.
01:22
And these enhancements were introduced
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A ova poboljšanja su uvedena
01:25
using a new genetic
modification technology
modification technology
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upotrebom nove tehnologije
za genetske modifikacije
za genetske modifikacije
01:28
that goes by the funny name CRISPR,
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koja ima zabavno ime CRISPR,
01:31
you know, like something's crisp,
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znate kao nešto "crisp" [sveže],
01:32
this is CRISPR.
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ovo je CRISPR [svežije].
01:35
The scientist that Jenna's parents
hired to do this
hired to do this
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Naučnici, koje su Dženini roditelji
unajmili da ovo urade
unajmili da ovo urade
01:38
for several million dollars
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za nekoliko miliona dolara,
01:41
introduced CRISPR
into a whole panel of human embryos.
into a whole panel of human embryos.
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uveli su CRISPR
u čitav niz ljudskih embriona.
u čitav niz ljudskih embriona.
01:46
And then they used genetic testing,
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I koristili su genetska testiranja
01:48
and they predicted that
that little tiny embryo, Jenna's embryo,
that little tiny embryo, Jenna's embryo,
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i predvideli da će taj sićušni embrion,
Dženin embrion,
Dženin embrion,
01:52
would be the best of the bunch.
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biti najbolji iz gomile.
01:55
And now, Jenna is an actual, real person.
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I sada, Džena je stvarna, prava osoba.
01:58
She's sitting on the carpet
in your living room
in your living room
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Sedi na tepihu u vašem dnevnom boravku
02:01
playing with your daughter Marianne.
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i igra se sa vašom kćerkom Marijanom.
02:05
And your families have known
each other for years now,
each other for years now,
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Vaše porodice se poznaju godinama,
02:08
and it's become very clear to you
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i prilično vam je jasno
02:10
that Jenna is extraordinary.
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da je Džena izvanredna.
02:13
She's incredibly intelligent.
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Veoma je inteligentna.
02:15
If you're honest with yourself,
she's smarter than you,
she's smarter than you,
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Ako ćete da budete iskreni prema sebi,
pametnija je od vas,
pametnija je od vas,
02:18
and she's five years old.
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a pet joj je godina.
02:21
She's beautiful, tall, athletic,
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Lepa je, visoka, atletske građe
02:24
and the list goes on and on.
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i spisak je sve duži.
02:28
And in fact, there's
a whole new generation
a whole new generation
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I zapravo imamo čitavu novu generaciju
02:30
of these GM kids like Jenna.
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GM dece poput Džene.
02:33
And so far it looks like
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I zasad se čini
02:36
they're healthier
than their parents' generation,
than their parents' generation,
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da su zdraviji
od generacije njihovih roditelja,
od generacije njihovih roditelja,
02:38
than your generation.
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od vaše generacije.
02:40
And they have lower health care costs.
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I imaju niže zdravstvene troškove.
02:44
They're immune to a host
of health conditions,
of health conditions,
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Imuni su na veliki broj
zdravstevnih stanja,
zdravstevnih stanja,
02:46
including HIV/AIDS and genetic diseases.
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uključujući HIV/AIDS i genetske bolesti.
02:51
It all sounds so great,
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Sve to zvuči sjajno,
02:53
but you can't help but have
this sort of unsettling feeling,
this sort of unsettling feeling,
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ali ne možete a da ne osećate nespokoj,
02:56
a gut feeling, that there's something
just not quite right about Jenna,
just not quite right about Jenna,
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instinktivno osećanje da nešto
prosto nije kako treba kod Džene
prosto nije kako treba kod Džene
03:02
and you've had the same feeling
about other GM kids that you've met.
about other GM kids that you've met.
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i imali ste isti osećaj
o drugoj GM deci koju ste upoznali.
o drugoj GM deci koju ste upoznali.
03:07
You were also reading
in the newspaper earlier this week
in the newspaper earlier this week
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Takođe ste čitali u novinama
ranije ove nedelje
ranije ove nedelje
03:10
that a study of these children
who were born as designer babies
who were born as designer babies
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da istraživanje ove dece,
koja su rođena kao dizajnirane bebe,
koja su rođena kao dizajnirane bebe,
03:14
indicates they may have some issues,
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nagoveštava da imaju neke probleme,
03:16
like increased aggressiveness
and narcissism.
and narcissism.
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poput naglašene agresivnosti
i narcisoidnosti.
i narcisoidnosti.
03:21
But more immediately on your mind
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Ali svežije su vam u mislima
03:23
is some news that you just got
from Jenna's family.
from Jenna's family.
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neke vesti koje ste upravo
čuli od Dženine porodice.
čuli od Dženine porodice.
03:27
She's so smart,
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Toliko je pametna
03:28
she's now going to be going
to a special school,
to a special school,
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da će sada pohađati specijalnu školu,
03:31
a different school
than your daughter Marianne,
than your daughter Marianne,
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različitu školu nego vaša kćerka Marijana,
03:34
and this is kind of throwing
your family into a disarray.
your family into a disarray.
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i to na neki način izbacuje
vašu porodicu iz ravnoteže.
vašu porodicu iz ravnoteže.
03:37
Marianne's been crying,
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Marijana plače,
03:39
and last night when you took her to bed
to kiss her goodnight,
to kiss her goodnight,
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a sinoć kad ste je uspavljivali
i ljubili za laku noć,
i ljubili za laku noć,
03:42
she said, "Daddy, will Jenna
even be my friend anymore?"
even be my friend anymore?"
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pitala je: "Tata, hoće li
mi Džena uopšte više biti prijateljica?"
mi Džena uopšte više biti prijateljica?"
03:48
So now, as I've been telling you
this imagined 2030 story,
this imagined 2030 story,
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Sad, kako sam vam pričao
ovu zamišljenu priču iz 2030,
ovu zamišljenu priču iz 2030,
03:52
I have a feeling
that I may have put some of you
that I may have put some of you
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imam osećaj da sam neke od vas smestio
03:54
into this sci-fi
frame of reference. Right?
frame of reference. Right?
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u naučnofantastični okvir. Je li tako?
03:57
You think you're reading a sci-fi book.
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Mislite da čitate
naučnofantastičnu knjigu.
naučnofantastičnu knjigu.
03:59
Or maybe, like,
in Halloween mode of thinking.
in Halloween mode of thinking.
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Ili, pak, razmišljate
u smeru Noći veštica.
u smeru Noći veštica.
04:02
But this is really
a possible reality for us,
a possible reality for us,
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Ali ovo je zaista naša moguća stvarnost,
04:05
just 15 years from now.
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svega 15 godina od sad.
04:07
I'm a stem cell and genetics researcher
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Ja sam istraživač
matičnih ćelija i genetike
matičnih ćelija i genetike
04:10
and I can see this new CRISPR technology
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i razumem novu CRISPR tehnologiju
04:13
and its potential impact.
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i njen potencijalni uticaj.
04:15
And we may find ourselves in that reality,
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I možemo se zateći u toj stvarnosti
04:19
and a lot will depend
on what we decide to do today.
on what we decide to do today.
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i mnogo će zavisiti od toga
šta odlučimo danas.
šta odlučimo danas.
04:23
And if you're still
kind of thinking in sci-fi mode,
kind of thinking in sci-fi mode,
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A ako i dalje razmišljate
u naučnofantastičnom smeru,
u naučnofantastičnom smeru,
04:26
consider that the world of science
had a huge shock earlier this year,
had a huge shock earlier this year,
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razmotrite da je svet nauke
poprilično zatečen ranije ove godine,
poprilično zatečen ranije ove godine,
04:31
and the public largely
doesn't even know about it.
doesn't even know about it.
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a javnost uglavnom pojma nema o tome.
04:33
Researchers in China just a few months ago
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Istraživači iz Kine,
pre svega nekoliko meseci,
pre svega nekoliko meseci,
04:36
reported the creation
of genetically modified human embryos.
of genetically modified human embryos.
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izvestili su da su stvorili
genetski modifikovane ljudske embrione.
genetski modifikovane ljudske embrione.
04:41
This was the first time in history.
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Ovo se desilo prvi put u istoriji.
04:44
And they did it using
this new CRISPR technology.
this new CRISPR technology.
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A postigli su to upotrebom
nove CRISPR tehnologije.
nove CRISPR tehnologije.
04:47
It didn't work perfectly,
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Nije savršeno funkcionisalo,
04:49
but I still think
they sort of cracked the door ajar
they sort of cracked the door ajar
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ali i dalje smatram
da su time odškrinuli vrata
da su time odškrinuli vrata
04:52
on a Pandora's box here.
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Pandorine kutije.
04:56
And I think some people
are going to run with this technology
are going to run with this technology
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I mislim da će se neki ljudi
voditi ovom tehnologijom
voditi ovom tehnologijom
04:59
and try to make designer babies.
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i pokušaće da dizajniraju bebe.
05:02
Now, before I go on, some of you
may hold up your hands and say,
may hold up your hands and say,
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Sad, pre nego što nastavim, neki od vas
će da podignu ruke i kažu:
će da podignu ruke i kažu:
05:05
"Stop, Paul, wait a minute.
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"Stani, Pol, čekaj malo.
05:07
Wouldn't that be illegal?
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Zar to ne bi bilo nezakonito?
05:09
You can't just go off
and create a designer baby."
and create a designer baby."
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Ne možeš prosto da se zaputiš
i stvoriš dizajniranu bebu."
i stvoriš dizajniranu bebu."
05:13
And in fact, to some extent, you're right.
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I zapravo ste donekle u pravu.
05:15
In some countries, you couldn't do that.
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U nekim državama to ne možete da uradite.
05:18
But in many other countries,
including my country, the US,
including my country, the US,
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Ali u mnogim drugim državama,
uključujući moju državu, SAD,
uključujući moju državu, SAD,
05:21
there's actually no law on this,
so in theory, you could do it.
so in theory, you could do it.
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zapravo ne postoji zakon o ovome,
pa u teoriji, mogli biste to da uradite.
pa u teoriji, mogli biste to da uradite.
05:26
And there was another development
this year that resonates in this area,
this year that resonates in this area,
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A desio se još jedan razvoj ove godine
koji se odrazio na ovu oblast,
koji se odrazio na ovu oblast,
05:31
and that happened
not so far from here over in the UK.
not so far from here over in the UK.
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a to se desilo nedaleko odavde,
u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu.
u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu.
05:34
And the UK traditionally
has been the strictest country
has been the strictest country
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A Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo je tradicionalno
bila najstroža država
bila najstroža država
05:37
when it comes to human
genetic modification.
genetic modification.
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kada se radi
o genetskim modifikacijama ljudi.
o genetskim modifikacijama ljudi.
05:40
It was illegal there,
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Tamo je to bilo nezakonito,
05:42
but just a few months ago,
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ali pre samo nekoliko meseci,
05:44
they carved out an exception to that rule.
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napravili su izuzetak tom pravilu.
05:46
They passed a new law
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Usvojili su novi zakon,
05:48
allowing the creation
of genetically modified humans
of genetically modified humans
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koji dozvoljava stvaranje
genetski modifikovanih ljudi
genetski modifikovanih ljudi
05:51
with the noble goal of trying
to prevent a rare kind of genetic disease.
to prevent a rare kind of genetic disease.
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s plemenitim ciljem pokušaja da se spreče
retki oblici genetskih bolesti.
retki oblici genetskih bolesti.
05:56
But still I think in combination
these events are pushing us
these events are pushing us
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Ali i dalje smatram da nas kombinacija
ovih događaja pomera
ovih događaja pomera
06:00
further towards an acceptance
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sve bliže ka prihvatanju
06:02
of human genetic modification.
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ljudskih genetskih modifikacija.
06:05
So I've been talking
about this CRISPR technology.
about this CRISPR technology.
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Dakle, govorio sam
o toj tehnologiji CRISPR.
o toj tehnologiji CRISPR.
06:08
What actually is CRISPR?
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Šta je zapravo CRISPR?
06:11
So if you think about the GMOs
that we're all more familiar with,
that we're all more familiar with,
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Pa, ako razmišljate o GMO
koji nam je svima poznatiji,
koji nam je svima poznatiji,
06:14
like GMO tomatoes and wheat
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poput GMO paradajza i pšenice
06:17
and things like that,
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i sličnih stvari,
06:19
this technology
is similar to the technologies
is similar to the technologies
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ova tehnologija je slična tehnologijama
06:22
that were used to make those,
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koje koristimo da njih napravimo,
06:24
but it's dramatically better,
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ali je drastično bolja,
06:26
cheaper and faster.
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jeftinija i brža.
06:30
So what is it?
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Pa, šta je to?
06:31
It's actually like
a genetic Swiss army knife.
a genetic Swiss army knife.
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To je poput genetskog
švajcarskog vojničkog noža.
švajcarskog vojničkog noža.
06:34
We can pretend this is a Swiss army knife
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Možemo da se pretvaramo
da je to švajcarski nož
da je to švajcarski nož
06:36
with different tools in it,
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koji sadrži različite alate,
06:37
and one of the tools
is kind of like a magnifying glass
is kind of like a magnifying glass
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a jedan od tih alata je nalik lupi
06:40
or a GPS for our DNA,
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ili GPS za naš DNK,
06:43
so it can home in on a certain spot.
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dakle, može da se smesti
u određenoj tački.
u određenoj tački.
06:46
And the next tool is like scissors
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A sledeći alat je poput makaza
06:48
that can cut the DNA right in that spot.
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koje mogu da seku DNK baš u toj tački.
06:51
And finally we have a pen
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I naposletku imamo olovku
06:53
where we can literally rewrite
the genetic code in that location.
the genetic code in that location.
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kojom bukvalno možemo da nanovo ispišemo
genetski kôd na toj lokaciji.
genetski kôd na toj lokaciji.
06:57
It's really that simple.
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Zaista je tako jednostavno.
06:59
And this technology, which came
on the scene just three years ago,
on the scene just three years ago,
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A ova tehnologija, koja se pojavila
pre samo tri godine,
pre samo tri godine,
07:03
has taken science by storm.
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iznenadila je nauku.
07:06
It's evolving so fast, and it's
so freaking exciting to scientists,
so freaking exciting to scientists,
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Toliko brzo se razvija,
i tako je prokleto uzbudljiva naučnicima,
i tako je prokleto uzbudljiva naučnicima,
07:10
and I admit I'm fascinated by it
and we use it in my own lab,
and we use it in my own lab,
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i ja priznajem da me fascinira
i koristimo je u našoj laboratoriji,
i koristimo je u našoj laboratoriji,
07:15
that I think someone
is going to go that extra step
is going to go that extra step
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da mislim kako će neko da ode korak dalje
07:18
and continue the GM human embryo work
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i da nastavi rad na genetskoj modifikaciji
ljudskog embriona
ljudskog embriona
07:21
and maybe make designer babies.
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i možda će da naprave dizajnirane bebe.
07:25
This is so ubiquitous now.
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Trenutno je to toliko sveprisutno.
07:26
It just came on the scene three years ago.
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Tek se pojavilo pre tri godine.
07:29
Thousands of labs
literally have this in hand today,
literally have this in hand today,
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Trenutno hiljade laboratorija
ovo bukvalno imaju pri ruci
ovo bukvalno imaju pri ruci
07:33
and they're doing important research.
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i bave se važnim istraživanjem.
07:35
Most of them are not interested
in designer babies.
in designer babies.
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Većinu njih ne interesuje
dizajniranje beba.
dizajniranje beba.
07:38
They're studying human disease
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Izučavaju ljudske bolesti
07:41
and other important elements of science.
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i druge važne elemente nauke.
07:43
So there's a lot of good research
going on with CRISPR.
going on with CRISPR.
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Dakle, mnogo se važnog istraživanja
sprovodi CRIPR-om.
sprovodi CRIPR-om.
07:47
And the fact that we can
now do genetic modifications
now do genetic modifications
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A činjenica da trenutno možemo
da radimo genetske modifikacije,
da radimo genetske modifikacije,
07:50
that used to take years
and cost millions of dollars
and cost millions of dollars
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koje su nekad trajale godinama
i koštale milione dolara,
i koštale milione dolara,
07:54
in a few weeks
for a couple thousand bucks,
for a couple thousand bucks,
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za nekoliko nedelja
za nekoliko hiljada dolara,
za nekoliko hiljada dolara,
07:57
to me as a scientist that's fantastic,
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meni kao naučniku je fantastična,
07:59
but again, at the same time,
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ali opet, istovremeno,
08:01
it opens the door to people going too far.
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otvara prostor ljudima da odu predaleko.
08:05
And I think for some people
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I mislim da se neki ljudi
08:06
the focus is not going to be
so much on science.
so much on science.
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neće usredsređivati toliko na nauku.
08:09
That's not what's going
to be driving them.
to be driving them.
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Neće ih nauka pokretati.
08:11
It's going to be ideology
or the chase for a profit.
or the chase for a profit.
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Pokretaće ih ideologija
ili jurenje za novcem.
ili jurenje za novcem.
08:16
And they're going to go
for designer babies.
for designer babies.
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I posegnuće za dizajniranjem beba.
08:20
So why should we be concerned about this?
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Pa, zašto bi trebalo da budemo
zabrinuti zbog ovoga?
zabrinuti zbog ovoga?
08:24
We know from Darwin,
if we go back two centuries,
if we go back two centuries,
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Znamo od Darvina,
ako se vratimo dva veka unazad,
ako se vratimo dva veka unazad,
08:27
that evolution and genetics
profoundly have impacted humanity,
profoundly have impacted humanity,
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da su evolucija i genetika
istinski uticali na čovečanstvo,
istinski uticali na čovečanstvo,
08:31
who we are today.
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na to ko smo danas.
08:33
And some think there's like
a social Darwinism at work in our world,
a social Darwinism at work in our world,
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A neki smatraju da se dešava nešto
poput društvenog darvinizma u našem svetu,
poput društvenog darvinizma u našem svetu,
08:37
and maybe even a eugenics as well.
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a možda čak i eugenika.
08:40
Imagine those trends, those forces,
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Zamislite te trendove, te sile,
08:44
with a booster rocket
of this CRISPR technology
of this CRISPR technology
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sa raketnim pogonom ove CRISPR tehnologije
08:47
that is so powerful and so ubiquitous.
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koja je toliko moćna i sveprisutna.
08:51
And in fact, we can just go back
one century to the last century
one century to the last century
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I zapravo, dovoljno je da se vratimo
jedan vek u prošli vek
jedan vek u prošli vek
08:54
to see the power that eugenics can have.
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kako bismo videli moć eugenike.
08:58
So my father, Peter Knoepfler,
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Moj otac, Piter Nofler,
09:01
was actually born right here in Vienna.
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je rođen baš ovde u Beču.
09:04
He was Viennese,
and he was born here in 1929.
and he was born here in 1929.
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Bio je Bečlija i rođen je ovde 1929.
09:08
And when my grandparents
had little baby Peter,
had little baby Peter,
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A kada su moji baka i deka
dobili malenu bebu Pitera,
dobili malenu bebu Pitera,
09:12
the world was very different. Right?
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svet je bio drugačiji. Je li tako?
09:14
It was a different Vienna.
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Bio je to neki drugi Beč.
09:15
The United States was different.
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SAD su bile drugačije.
09:17
The world was different.
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Svet je bio drugačiji.
09:18
There was a eugenics rising,
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Eugenika je bila u usponu
09:20
and my grandparents realized,
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i moji baka i deka su shvatili,
09:23
pretty quickly I think,
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verujem veoma brzo,
09:24
that they were on the wrong side
of the eugenics equation.
of the eugenics equation.
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da su na pogrešnoj strani
eugeničke jednačine.
eugeničke jednačine.
09:28
And so despite this being their home
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I uprkos tome što je ovo bio njihov dom
09:31
and their whole extended family's home,
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i dom njihove čitave šire porodice,
09:33
and this area being their family's
home for generations,
home for generations,
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a ova oblast je generacijama
bila dom njihovoj porodici,
bila dom njihovoj porodici,
09:37
they decided because of eugenics
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odlučili su da zbog eugenike
09:40
that they had to leave.
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moraju da odu.
09:42
And they survived,
but they were heartbroken,
but they were heartbroken,
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I preživeli su, ali slomljenog srca
09:44
and I'm not sure my dad
ever really got over leaving Vienna.
ever really got over leaving Vienna.
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i nisam siguran da je moj otac
ikad prežalio odlazak iz Beča.
ikad prežalio odlazak iz Beča.
09:49
He left when he was just eight years old
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Otišao je kad mu je bilo tek osam godina
09:51
in 1938.
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1938.
09:54
So today, I see a new eugenics
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Stoga danas vidim novu eugeniku
09:57
kind of bubbling to the surface.
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kako izranja na površinu.
10:00
It's supposed to be a kinder,
gentler, positive eugenics,
gentler, positive eugenics,
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Trebalo bi da bude plemenitija,
nežnija, pozitivna eugenika,
nežnija, pozitivna eugenika,
10:05
different than all that past stuff.
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drugačija od svega toga iz prošlosti.
10:08
But I think even though it's focused
on trying to improve people,
on trying to improve people,
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Ali smatram da iako je usredsređena
na pokušavanje da poboljša ljude,
na pokušavanje da poboljša ljude,
10:12
it could have negative consequences,
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mogla bi da ima negativne posledice
10:15
and it really worries me
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i zaista me brine
10:16
that some of the top proponents
of this new eugenics,
of this new eugenics,
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što neki od najvećih zagovornika
ove nove eugenike
ove nove eugenike
10:19
they think CRISPR is the ticket
to make it happen.
to make it happen.
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smatraju da je CRISPR
karta za njeno ostvarivanje.
karta za njeno ostvarivanje.
10:24
So I have to admit, you know,
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Pa, moram da priznam, znate,
10:26
eugenics, we talk
about making better people.
about making better people.
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eugenika, govorimo o unapređenju ljudi.
10:29
It's a tough question.
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To je teško pitanje.
10:30
What is better when we're talking
about a human being?
about a human being?
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Šta je bolje kad govorimo
o ljudskim bićima?
o ljudskim bićima?
10:34
But I admit I think maybe a lot of us
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Ali priznajem da smatram
da možda mnogi od nas
da možda mnogi od nas
10:37
could agree that human beings,
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bi mogli da se slože da bi ljudskim bićima
10:40
maybe we could use a little betterment.
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1976
godilo malo poboljšanja.
10:42
Look at our politicians
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Pogledajte naše političare
10:44
here, you know, back in the US --
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ovde, znate, tamo u SAD-u -
10:46
God forbid we go there right now.
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Ne daj bože da sad pođemo tamo.
10:50
Maybe even if we just look in the mirror,
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1976
Možda ako samo pogledamo u ogledalo,
10:52
there might be ways
we think we could be better.
we think we could be better.
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moguće da bismo otkrili
vidove da se popravimo.
vidove da se popravimo.
10:54
I might wish, honestly, that I had
more hair here, instead of baldness.
more hair here, instead of baldness.
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Možda bih poželeo, iskreno,
da imam više kose ovde, umesto ćelavosti.
da imam više kose ovde, umesto ćelavosti.
10:59
Some people might wish they were taller,
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Neki ljudi bi poželeli da su viši,
11:02
have a different weight, a different face.
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da imaju drugačiju težinu, drugačije lice.
11:05
If we could do those things,
we could make those things happen,
we could make those things happen,
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Ako bismo mogli to da uradimo,
ako bismo mogli sve to da ostvarimo
ako bismo mogli sve to da ostvarimo
11:09
or we could make them happen
in our children,
in our children,
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ili bismo to mogli da ostvarimo
kod naše dece,
kod naše dece,
11:11
it would be very seductive.
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to bi bilo primamljivo.
11:14
And yet coming with it
would be these risks.
would be these risks.
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A ipak, uz to bi išli sledeći rizici.
11:16
I talked about eugenics,
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Govorio sam o eugenici,
11:18
but there would be risks
to individuals as well.
to individuals as well.
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ali postojali bi rizici i po pojedince.
11:21
So if we forget about enhancing people
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Dakle, ako bismo zaboravili
na unapređivanje ljudi
na unapređivanje ljudi
11:24
and we just try to make them
healthier using genetic modification,
healthier using genetic modification,
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i samo pokušali da ih napravimo zdravijim
upotrebom genetskih modifikacija,
upotrebom genetskih modifikacija,
11:28
this technology is so new
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ova tehnologija je toliko nova
11:31
and so powerful,
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i toliko moćna
11:32
that by accident
we could make them sicker.
we could make them sicker.
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da bismo slučajno mogli
da ih napravimo bolesnijima.
da ih napravimo bolesnijima.
11:36
That easily could happen.
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To bi lako moglo da se desi.
11:38
And there's another risk,
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A tu je i drugi rizik,
11:39
and that is that all of the legitimate,
important genetic modification research
important genetic modification research
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a to je da sve legitimno, važno
istraživanje genetskih modifikacija
istraživanje genetskih modifikacija
11:44
going on just in the lab --
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se dešava samo u laboratoriji -
11:46
again, no interest in designer babies --
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opet, bez zainteresovanosti
za dizajniranje beba -
za dizajniranje beba -
11:49
a few people going
the designer baby route,
the designer baby route,
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ako bi nekoliko ljudi krenulo
putem dizajniranja beba,
putem dizajniranja beba,
11:52
things go badly,
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a stvari bi krenule po zlu,
11:53
that entire field could be damaged.
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čitava oblast bi ispaštala.
11:57
I also think it's not that unlikely
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Takođe smatram da nije nemoguće
11:59
that governments might start taking
an interest in genetic modification.
an interest in genetic modification.
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da bi vlade mogle početi da se interesuju
za genetske modifikacije.
za genetske modifikacije.
12:04
So for example our imagined GM Jenna child
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Pa, na primer,
naše zamišljeno GM dete, Džena,
naše zamišljeno GM dete, Džena,
12:09
who is healthier,
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koje je zdravije,
12:11
if there's a generation that looks
like they have lower health care costs,
like they have lower health care costs,
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ako postoji generacija za koju se čini
da ima niže troškove zdravstvene nege,
da ima niže troškove zdravstvene nege,
12:15
it's possible that governments
may start trying to compel their citizens
may start trying to compel their citizens
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moguće je da vlade
mogu da počnu da sile svoje građane
mogu da počnu da sile svoje građane
12:19
to go the GM route.
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da krenu GM putem.
12:21
Look at China's one-child policy.
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Pogledajte politiku jednog deteta u Kini.
12:23
It's thought that that prevented
the birth of 400 million human beings.
the birth of 400 million human beings.
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Smatra se da je sprečila
rođenje 400 miliona ljudskih bića.
rođenje 400 miliona ljudskih bića.
12:30
So it's not beyond the realm of possible
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Stoga nije u sferi nemogućeg
12:33
that genetic modification
could be something that governments push.
could be something that governments push.
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da bi genetske modifikacije
mogle da budu nešto što vlade guraju.
mogle da budu nešto što vlade guraju.
12:37
And if designer babies become popular,
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A ako dizajnirane bebe postanu popularne,
12:40
in our digital age --
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u našem digitalnom dobu -
12:42
viral videos, social media --
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popularnih snimaka, društvenih mreža -
12:45
what if designer babies
are thought to be fashionable,
are thought to be fashionable,
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šta ako bi se smatralo
da su dizajnirane bebe moderne,
da su dizajnirane bebe moderne,
12:47
and they kind of become
the new glitterati,
the new glitterati,
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i one postanu neka vrsta novog glamura,
12:50
the new Kardashians or something?
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novi Kardašijanovi ili slično?
12:51
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:52
You know, are those trends
that we really could control?
that we really could control?
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Znate, jesu li to trendovi
koje bi zaista mogli da kontrolišemo?
koje bi zaista mogli da kontrolišemo?
12:57
I'm not convinced that we could.
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Nisam ubeđen da jesu.
13:00
So again, today it's Halloween
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Dakle, opet, danas je Noć veštica
13:03
and when we talk
about genetic modification,
about genetic modification,
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i kada govorimo
o genetskim modifikacijama,
o genetskim modifikacijama,
13:06
there's one Halloween-associated character
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pstoji jedan lik u vezi sa Noći veštica
o kom se govori i koji se priziva
više od bilo čega drugog,
više od bilo čega drugog,
13:09
that is talked about
or invoked more than anything else,
or invoked more than anything else,
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13:12
and that is Frankenstein.
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a to je Frankenštajn.
13:14
Mostly that's been Frankenfoods
and all this other stuff.
and all this other stuff.
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Najčešće je to bila frankenhrana
i razne druge stvari.
i razne druge stvari.
13:19
But if we think about this now
and we think about it in the human context
and we think about it in the human context
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Ali ako razmislimo danas o tome
i razmislimo o tome u ljudskom kontekstu
i razmislimo o tome u ljudskom kontekstu
13:23
on a day like Halloween,
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na dan poput Noći veštica,
13:24
if parents can in essence
costume their children genetically,
costume their children genetically,
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ako roditelji u suštini mogu
da genetski kostimiraju svoju decu,
da genetski kostimiraju svoju decu,
13:30
are we going to be talking about
a Frankenstein 2.0 kind of situation?
a Frankenstein 2.0 kind of situation?
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da li ćemo da govorimo
o nekoj vrsti situacije Frankenštajn 2.0?
o nekoj vrsti situacije Frankenštajn 2.0?
13:36
I don't think so. I don't think
it's going to get to that extreme.
it's going to get to that extreme.
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Ne verujem. Ne verujem
da će ići toliko daleko.
da će ići toliko daleko.
13:39
But when we are going about
hacking the human code,
hacking the human code,
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Ali kada se bavimo cepkanjem
ljudskog kôda,
ljudskog kôda,
mislim da sve opklade otpadaju,
u smislu šta bi moglo proizaći iz toga.
u smislu šta bi moglo proizaći iz toga.
13:43
I think all bets are off
in terms of what might come of that.
in terms of what might come of that.
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13:46
There would still be dangers.
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I dalje bi postojala opasnost.
Možemo da pogledamo u prošlost
13:49
And we can look in the past
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13:51
to other elements
of transformative science
of transformative science
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druge elemente preobražajne nauke
13:53
and see how they can
basically go out of control
basically go out of control
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i da vidimo kako su se
u suštini otrgli kontroli
u suštini otrgli kontroli
13:57
and permeate society.
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i kako su proželi društvo.
13:59
So I'll just give you one example,
and that is in vitro fertilization.
and that is in vitro fertilization.
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Daću vam samo jedan primer,
a to je vantelesna oplodnja.
a to je vantelesna oplodnja.
14:04
Almost exactly 40 years ago,
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Pre skoro tačno 40 godina,
14:08
test tube baby number one
Louise Brown was born,
Louise Brown was born,
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rođena je prva beba iz tube, Luiza Braun,
14:11
and that's a great thing,
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a to je sjajna stvar,
14:13
and I think since then
five million IVF babies have been born,
five million IVF babies have been born,
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i mislim da je od tada pet miliona beba
rođeno vantelesnom oplodnjom,
rođeno vantelesnom oplodnjom,
14:18
bringing immeasurable happiness.
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donele su bezmernu radost.
14:20
A lot of parents now can love those kids.
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Mnogi roditelji sad mogu da vole tu decu.
Ali ako razmislite o tome,
za četiri decenije,
za četiri decenije,
14:23
But if you think about it,
in four decades,
in four decades,
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14:25
five million babies being born
from a new technology
from a new technology
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pet miliona beba rođenih
zahvaljujući novoj tehnologiji
zahvaljujući novoj tehnologiji
14:29
is pretty remarkable,
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je prilično izvanredno,
14:31
and the same kind of thing could happen
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a isto bi moglo da se desi
14:33
with human genetic modification
and designer babies.
and designer babies.
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s genetskim modifikacijama ljudi
i dizajniranjem beba.
i dizajniranjem beba.
14:37
So depending on the decisions
we make in the next few months,
we make in the next few months,
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Pa, u zavisnosti od odluka
koje donesemo u narednih nekoliko meseci,
koje donesemo u narednih nekoliko meseci,
14:40
the next year or so,
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u narednih godinu dana,
14:41
if designer baby number one is born,
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ako se rodi prva dizajnirana beba
14:44
within a few decades,
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u narednih par decenija,
14:46
there could well be millions
of genetically modified humans.
of genetically modified humans.
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moglo bi da dođe do miliona
genetski modifikovanih ljudi.
genetski modifikovanih ljudi.
14:49
And there's a difference there too,
because if we, you in the audience, or I,
because if we, you in the audience, or I,
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A tu imamo i razliku,
jer ako mi, vi u publici ili ja,
jer ako mi, vi u publici ili ja,
14:54
if we decide to have a designer baby,
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ako odlučimo da imamo dizajniranu bebu,
14:57
then their children will also
be genetically modified, and so on,
be genetically modified, and so on,
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onda će i njihova deca
da budu genetski modifikovana itd.
da budu genetski modifikovana itd.
15:01
because it's heritable.
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jer je to nasledno.
15:02
So that's a big difference.
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Dakle, to je velika razlika.
15:05
So with all of this in mind,
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Pa, imajući sve ovo na umu,
15:07
what should we do?
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šta da radimo?
15:10
There's actually going to be a meeting
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Zapravo će da dođe do sastanka
15:11
a month from tomorrow in Washington, D.C.
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za mesec dana od sutra u Vašingtonu,
od strane Nacionalne akademija nauke SAD-a
15:14
by the US National Academy of Sciences
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15:16
to tackle that exact question.
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kako bi se bavili tim pitanjem.
15:19
What is the right path forward
with human genetic modification?
with human genetic modification?
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Koji je pravi put napred po pitanju
ljudskih genetskih modifikacija?
ljudskih genetskih modifikacija?
15:24
I believe at this time
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Verujem da nam trenutno
15:26
we need a moratorium.
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treba moratorijum.
15:27
We have to ban this.
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Moramo to da zabranimo.
15:29
We should not allow
creating genetically modified people,
creating genetically modified people,
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Ne bi trebalo da dozvolimo
stvaranje genetski modifikovanih ljudi
stvaranje genetski modifikovanih ljudi
15:33
because it's just too dangerous
and too unpredictable.
and too unpredictable.
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jer je prosto suviše opasno
i suviše nepredvidivo.
i suviše nepredvidivo.
15:37
But there's a lot of people --
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Ali ima mnogo ljudi -
15:38
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
15:40
Thanks.
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Havala.
15:41
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
15:47
And let me say, just as a scientist,
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I dozvolite da kažem, prosto kao naučnik,
15:50
it's a little bit scary
for me to say that in public,
for me to say that in public,
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malčice je zastrašujuće da to javno kažem
15:52
because science generally doesn't like
self-regulation and things like that.
self-regulation and things like that.
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jer nauka uopšteno ne voli
samoregulaciju i slične stvari.
samoregulaciju i slične stvari.
15:59
So I think we need to put a hold on this,
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Zato smatram da moramo da odložimo ovo,
no postoje mnogi ljudi
koji ne samo da se ne slažu sa mnom,
koji ne samo da se ne slažu sa mnom,
16:02
but there are many people
who not only disagree with me,
who not only disagree with me,
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16:05
they feel the exact opposite.
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već osećaju baš suprotno.
16:06
They're like, step on the gas,
full speed ahead,
full speed ahead,
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Oni su potpuno nagazili gas,
idu punom brzinom napred,
idu punom brzinom napred,
16:10
let's make designer babies.
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napravimo dizajnirane bebe.
16:11
And so in the meeting in December
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Pa će na sastanku u decembru
i na drugim sastancima koji će verovatno
uslediti u narednih nekoliko meseci,
uslediti u narednih nekoliko meseci,
16:14
and other meetings that are likely
to follow in the next few months,
to follow in the next few months,
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16:18
it's very possible
there may be no moratorium.
there may be no moratorium.
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veoma je moguće da neće biti moratorijuma.
16:21
And I think part
of the problem that we have
of the problem that we have
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A mislim da je deo našeg problema
16:24
is that all of this trend,
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to što je čitav ovaj trend,
16:26
this revolution in genetic modification
applying to humans,
applying to humans,
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ova revolucija u genetskoj modifikaciji
koja je primenjiva na ljude,
koja je primenjiva na ljude,
16:30
the public hasn't known about it.
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javnost nije znala za to.
16:32
Nobody has been saying,
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Niko nije govorio,
16:34
look, this is a big deal,
this is a revolution,
this is a revolution,
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pogledajte, ovo je velika stvar,
ovo je revolucija
ovo je revolucija
i moglo bi da utiče na vas
na veoma lične načine.
na veoma lične načine.
16:38
and this could affect you
in very personal ways.
in very personal ways.
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16:40
And so part of my goal
is actually to change that
is actually to change that
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Te je moj cilj delimično
da to zapravo promenim
da to zapravo promenim
16:43
and to educate and engage with the public
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i da obrazujem i angažujem javnost
16:46
and get you guys talking about this.
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i da vi ljudi pričate o ovome.
16:49
And so I hope at these meetings
that there will be a role for the public
that there will be a role for the public
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Pa se nadam da će na ovim sastancima
biti mesta za javnost
biti mesta za javnost
16:53
to bring their voice to bear as well.
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da doprinese svojim glasom.
16:57
So if we kind of circle back now
to 2030 again, that imagined story,
to 2030 again, that imagined story,
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Pa, ako se vratimo nazad,
opet na 2030, na tu zamišljenu priču,
opet na 2030, na tu zamišljenu priču,
17:03
and depending on the decisions
we make, again, today --
we make, again, today --
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i u zavisnosti od odluka
koje, opet, donesemo danas -
koje, opet, donesemo danas -
17:06
literally we don't have a lot of time --
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bukvalno nemamo mnogo vremena -
17:08
in the next few months,
the next year or so,
the next year or so,
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u narednih nekoliko meseci,
sledećih godinu,
sledećih godinu,
17:10
because this technology
is spreading like wildfire.
is spreading like wildfire.
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jer se ova tehnologija širi poput požara.
17:13
Let's pretend we're back in that reality.
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Pretvarajmo se da smo ponovo
u toj stvarnosti.
u toj stvarnosti.
17:16
We're at a park,
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Nalazimo se u parku
17:18
and our kid is swinging on the swing.
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i naše dete se ljulja na ljuljašci.
17:22
Is that kid a regular old kid,
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Da li je to dete obično staro dete
17:25
or did we decide to have a designer baby?
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ili smo odlučili
da imamo dizajniranu bebu?
da imamo dizajniranu bebu?
17:28
And let's say we went
the sort of traditional route,
the sort of traditional route,
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I recimo da smo krenuli
nekom vrstom tradicionalnog puta,
nekom vrstom tradicionalnog puta,
17:32
and there's our kid swinging on the swing,
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i naše dete se ljulja na ljuljašci,
17:34
and frankly, they're kind of a mess.
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i iskreno, ono je nered.
17:37
Their hair is all over
the place like mine.
the place like mine.
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Kosa mu je zamršena poput moje.
17:40
They have a stuffy nose.
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Zapušen mu je nos.
17:42
They're not the best student in the world.
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Nije najbolji đak na svetu.
17:45
They're adorable, you love them,
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Ljupko je, volite ga,
17:47
but there on the swing next to them,
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ali na ljuljašci do njegove,
17:49
their best friend is a GM kid,
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njegov najbolji prijatelj je GM dete,
17:52
and the two of them
are kind of swinging like this,
are kind of swinging like this,
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i njih dvoje se tako ljuljaju,
17:54
and you can't help
but compare them, right?
but compare them, right?
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a vi ne možete
a da ih ne poredite, zar ne?
a da ih ne poredite, zar ne?
17:56
And the GM kid is swinging higher,
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A GM dete se ljulja više,
17:59
they look better,
they're a better student,
they're a better student,
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izgleda bolje, bolji je đak,
18:01
they don't have that stuffy nose
you need to wipe.
you need to wipe.
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nema zapušen nos koji morate da brišete.
18:04
How is that going to make you feel
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Kako ćete se zbog toga osećati
18:06
and what decision
might you make next time?
might you make next time?
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i kakvu odluku ćete sledeći put doneti?
18:10
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
18:12
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Knoepfler - BiologistPaul Knoepfler is a biomedical scientist and writer focusing on stem cells and genetics.
Why you should listen
Dr. Paul Knoepfler loves stem cells. He is working to figure out how we use safely them to treat many diseases and how stem cells sometimes turn to the dark side to cause cancer. Over the years he has made key discoveries about how stem cells and cancer are programmed. Now he is especially interested in how to hack these cells to control their behavior, including using powerful CRISPR genetic modification technology.
Knoepfler has also been a leading voice in the discussion about how CRISPR could be used to make designer babies and the risks of going down that path. He is a professor of cell biology and anatomy at UC Davis School of Medicine in California, where he both does research and teaches. In addition, he is a prolific writer including his popular science blog, The Niche, and two books: Stem Cells: An Insider's Guide and GMO Sapiens: The Life-Changing Science of Designer Babies. He is excited about contributing to efforts to build an innovative, global community of interconnected people with a shared passion for biomedical science and battling fake science. Knoepfler’s outspoken, approachable nature in tackling some of the most transformative questions in science has made him a go-to scientist for journalists and ordinary people across the globe.
Paul Knoepfler | Speaker | TED.com