ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ray Dalio - Hedge fund chair
Ray Dalio is the founder, chair and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, a global leader in institutional portfolio management and the largest hedge fund in the world.

Why you should listen

Dalio started Bridgewater out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York City in 1975 and has grown it into the fifth most important private company in the U.S. (according to Fortune magazine). Because of the firm’s many industry-changing innovations over its 40-year history, he has been called the “Steve Jobs of investing” by aiCIO magazine and named one of TIME magazine’s "100 Most Influential People."

Dalio attributes Bridgewater’s success to its unique culture. He describes it as “a believability-weighted idea meritocracy” in which the people strive for “meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency.” He has explained this approach in his book Principles, which has been downloaded more than three million times and has produced considerable curiosity and controversy.

More profile about the speaker
Ray Dalio | Speaker | TED.com
TED2017

Ray Dalio: How to build a company where the best ideas win

Ray Dalio: 如何建立一个能够获得最佳决策的公司

Filmed:
3,449,614 views

你是否知道你的工作伙伴如何看待你，以及他们是怎样的人呢？Ray Dalio 给出了一个商业案例，关于使用绝对透明和算法来做出决策，创造精英对话。人们可以畅所欲言——甚至也可以针对老板。一起来学习这样的方法如何帮助Dalio创造出了世界上最好的对冲基金公司，以及如何依靠强大的数据进行决策。
- Hedge fund chair
Ray Dalio is the founder, chair and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, a global leader in institutional portfolio management and the largest hedge fund in the world. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
Whether是否 you like it or not,
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不管你是否喜欢，
绝对透明和利用算法的
决策时代正在快速到来，
00:13
radical激进 transparency透明度 and algorithmic算法
decision-making做决定 is coming未来 at you fast快速,
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并且将改变你的生活。
00:19
and it's going to change更改 your life.
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00:21
That's because it's now easy简单
to take algorithms算法
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因为现在把算法嵌入到计算机中
00:24
and embed嵌 them into computers电脑
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十分容易，
00:26
and gather收集 all that data数据
that you're leaving离开 on yourself你自己
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它能收集你所有的
00:29
all over the place地点,
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私自保留的信息，
00:30
and know what you're like,
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明白哪些是你需要的，
00:32
and then direct直接 the computers电脑
to interact相互作用 with you
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然后引导计算机与你互动，
00:35
in ways方法 that are better
than most最 people can.
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这比大部分人跟你
互动的效果好多了。
00:38
Well, that might威力 sound声音 scary害怕.
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这听上去似乎有点吓人。
00:39
I've been doing this for a long time
and I have found发现 it to be wonderful精彩.
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不过我这么做已经很久了，
发现其实很管用。
00:44
My objective目的 has been
to have meaningful富有意义的 work
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我的目标是做有意义的工作，
00:46
and meaningful富有意义的 relationships关系
with the people I work with,
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与同事建立有意义的工作关系，
00:49
and I've learned学到了 that I couldn't不能 have that
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我知道，如果没有
绝对透明和算法决策的支持，
这一切都不会发生。
00:51
unless除非 I had that radical激进 transparency透明度
and that algorithmic算法 decision-making做决定.
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00:56
I want to show显示 you why that is,
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我想告诉你们为什么会这样，
00:58
I want to show显示 you how it works作品.
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并展示它是如何运作的。
01:00
And I warn警告 you that some of the things
that I'm going to show显示 you
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接下来向你们展示的
也许有点不同寻常。
01:03
probably大概 are a little bit位 shocking触目惊心.
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01:05
Since以来 I was a kid孩子,
I've had a terrible可怕 rote死记硬背 memory记忆.
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当我还是小孩子时，
我憎恶死记硬背。
01:10
And I didn't like following以下 instructions说明,
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不喜欢按部就班，
也不擅长墨守成规。
01:12
I was no good at following以下 instructions说明.
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我喜欢用自己的方式来理解事物。
01:14
But I loved喜爱 to figure数字 out
how things worked工作 for myself我.
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01:18
When I was 12,
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我12岁的时候，
01:20
I hated恨 school学校 but I fell下跌 in love
with trading贸易 the markets市场.
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讨厌上学，但爱上了市场交易。
01:23
I caddied球童 at the time,
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我当时是个小球童，
服务一包球得5美元。
01:25
earned赚 about five五 dollars美元 a bag袋.
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01:27
And I took拿 my caddying球童 money钱,
and I put it in the stock股票 market市场.
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我把自己的球童收入投入了股市。
01:31
And that was just because
the stock股票 market市场 was hot热 at the time.
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因为那个时候股市很火爆。
我买的第一个公司股票是
01:34
And the first company公司 I bought买
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01:36
was a company公司 by the name名称
of Northeast东北 Airlines航空公司.
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一家叫做东北航空的公司。
01:39
Northeast东北 Airlines航空公司 was
the only company公司 I heard听说 of
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东北航空是当时我所知道
01:42
that was selling销售 for less减
than five五 dollars美元 a share分享.
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唯一的单股价格低于 5 美元的。
01:44
(Laughter笑声)
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（笑）
我计划买更多的股票，
01:46
And I figured想通 I could buy购买 more shares分享,
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01:48
and if it went去 up, I'd make more money钱.
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如果上涨，就可以赚更多的钱。
01:50
So, it was a dumb哑 strategy战略, right?
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这个策略听上去挺傻的吧？
01:54
But I tripled三倍 my money钱,
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不过我赚了3倍的钱，
01:55
and I tripled三倍 my money钱
because I got lucky幸运.
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因为当时运气不错。
01:58
The company公司 was about to go bankrupt破产者,
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那家公司快破产了，
最后被其他公司收购，
02:00
but some other company公司 acquired后天 it,
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02:02
and I tripled三倍 my money钱.
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我就翻了3倍。
02:03
And I was hooked迷上.
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从此就一发不可收拾。
02:05
And I thought, "This game游戏 is easy简单."
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我在想： “这个游戏真简单。”
02:09
With time,
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后来，
我才明白这个游戏一点也不简单。
02:10
I learned学到了 this game游戏 is anything but easy简单.
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02:12
In order订购 to be an effective有效 investor投资者,
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要成为一个成功的投资人，
02:15
one has to bet赌注 against反对 the consensus共识
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要和市场对赌，
还得成功。
02:17
and be right.
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要做到这一点很难。
02:19
And it's not easy简单 to bet赌注
against反对 the consensus共识 and be right.
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02:22
One has to bet赌注 against反对
the consensus共识 and be right
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之所以难，
是因为股票价格是由市场决定的。
02:24
because the consensus共识
is built内置 into the price价钱.
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02:28
And in order订购 to be an entrepreneur企业家,
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不过要成为一个
成功的企业家，
02:30
a successful成功 entrepreneur企业家,
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你必须与市场对赌并且赢得胜利。
02:32
one has to bet赌注 against反对
the consensus共识 and be right.
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02:37
I had to be an entrepreneur企业家
and an investor投资者 --
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我是个企业家，也是一个投资家，
02:40
and what goes去 along沿 with that
is making制造 a lot of painful痛苦 mistakes错误.
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扮演这种角色的代价就是
获得了很多惨痛的教训。
02:45
So I made制作 a lot of painful痛苦 mistakes错误,
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我的确得到了很多教训，
随后，
02:48
and with time,
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我对于犯错的态度转变了。
02:49
my attitude态度 about those mistakes错误
began开始 to change更改.
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02:53
I began开始 to think of them as puzzles谜题.
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我开始意识到它们是谜团。
如果我能解开这些谜团，
02:55
That if I could solve解决 the puzzles谜题,
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就会获得巨大的回报。
02:57
they would give me gems宝石.
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02:59
And the puzzles谜题 were:
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这个谜团就是：
03:00
What would I do differently不同 in the future未来
so I wouldn't不会 make that painful痛苦 mistake错误?
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如何防止我在将来不犯大错？
03:05
And the gems宝石 were principles原则
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而要获得回报的原则就是
03:07
that I would then write写 down
so I would remember记得 them
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记录并回忆它们，
03:11
that would help me in the future未来.
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这对将来的决策很有帮助。
03:13
And because I wrote写 them down so clearly明确地,
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因为我清楚地做了详细的记录，
03:15
I could then --
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最终——
我发现了——
03:17
eventually终于 discovered发现 --
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03:18
I could then embed嵌 them into algorithms算法.
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我能将这些方法嵌入算法中。
03:23
And those algorithms算法
would be embedded嵌入式 in computers电脑,
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再把算法嵌入计算机中，
03:26
and the computers电脑 would
make decisions决定 along沿 with me;
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计算机就能协助我做决定；
同时，我们也能制定出最后的决策。
03:30
and so in parallel平行,
we would make these decisions决定.
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03:33
And I could see how those decisions决定
then compared相比 with my own拥有 decisions决定,
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和我自己做的决策对比之后，
03:37
and I could see that
those decisions决定 were a lot better.
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我发现这些决策要好很多。
03:40
And that was because the computer电脑
could make decisions决定 much faster更快,
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因为计算机做决策更快，
能处理更多信息，
03:45
it could process处理 a lot more information信息
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03:47
and it can process处理 decisions决定 much more --
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几乎不带有任何情绪地
03:51
less减 emotionally感情上.
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处理更多决策。
03:54
So it radically根本 improved改善
my decision-making做决定.
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于是它彻底提高了
我的决策正确率。
04:00
Eight八 years年份 after I started开始 Bridgewater布里奇沃特,
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在创建了Bridgewater 8年后，
我犯下了人生中最大的错误，
04:05
I had my greatest最大 failure失败,
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04:06
my greatest最大 mistake错误.
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经历了最大的一次失败。
04:09
It was late晚了 1970s,
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那是1970年代末，
04:11
I was 34 years年份 old旧,
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我当时34岁，
04:13
and I had calculated计算 that American美国 banks银行
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计算出美国银行
04:17
had lent借给 much more money钱
to emerging新兴 countries国家
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出借了太多资金给新兴国家，
04:20
than those countries国家
were going to be able能够 to pay工资 back
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而不是那些有能力还款的国家。
04:23
and that we would have
the greatest最大 debt债务 crisis危机
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这会导致自大萧条后
04:25
since以来 the Great Depression萧条.
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最大的债务危机。
04:28
And with it, an economic经济 crisis危机
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随后，就会出现经济危机，
股市走熊。
04:30
and a big大 bear熊 market市场 in stocks个股.
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04:33
It was a controversial争论的 view视图 at the time.
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这个观点当时是有争议的，
04:36
People thought it was
kind类 of a crazy疯 point点 of view视图.
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人们认为我的想法太疯狂。
04:39
But in August八月 1982,
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但是在1982年8月，
04:41
Mexico墨西哥 defaulted默认 on its debt债务,
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墨西哥违约，
04:44
and a number数 of other countries国家 followed其次.
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其他一系列国家跟进，
04:46
And we had the greatest最大 debt债务 crisis危机
since以来 the Great Depression萧条.
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的确出现了自大萧条后
最严重的债务危机。
04:51
And because I had anticipated预期 that,
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因为我早先的预测，
04:53
I was asked问 to testify作证 to Congress国会
and appear出现 on "Wall壁 Street街 Week周,"
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我被国会要求出席
“华尔街之周”的听证会，
04:58
which哪一个 was the show显示 of the time.
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当时备受关注。
05:00
Just to give you a flavor味道 of that,
I've got a clip夹 here,
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我裁剪了一小短现场录像，
05:03
and you'll你会 see me in there.
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大家可以看到我。
05:06
(Video视频) Mr先生. Chairman主席, Mr先生. Mitchell米切尔,
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（录像）主席先生，米切尔先生，
05:08
it's a great pleasure乐趣 and a great honor荣誉
to be able能够 to appear出现 before you
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很荣幸出席今天的会议，
检查我们的经济哪里出了问题。
05:11
in examination检查 with what
is going wrong错误 with our economy经济.
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05:15
The economy经济 is now flat平面 --
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经济增长已经停滞——
在失败的边缘摇摇欲坠。
05:17
teetering摇摇欲坠 on the brink边缘 of failure失败.
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Martin Zweig:
最近有一篇文章提到了你，
05:19
Martin马丁 Zweig茨威格: You were recently最近
quoted引 in an article文章.
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你说过：“我对此深信不疑，
05:22
You said, "I can say this
with absolute绝对 certainty肯定
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我知道市场是如何运作的。”
05:24
because I know how markets市场 work."
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05:26
Ray射线 Dalio戴利奥: I can say
with absolute绝对 certainty肯定
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Ray Dalio： 我能毫不犹豫的说，
如果你们在公司和整个世界范围内
05:28
that if you look at the liquidity流动性 base基础
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观察流动性基础，
05:30
in the corporations公司
and the world世界 as a whole整个,
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流动性大幅度减少，
05:33
that there's such这样 reduced减少
level水平 of liquidity流动性
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05:35
that you can't return返回
to an era时代 of stagflation滞胀."
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你不可能回到一个滞胀的时代。“
现在回过头来看，
我想的是：“多么自负的傻瓜！”
05:39
I look at that now, I think,
"What an arrogant傲慢 jerk混蛋!"
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（笑）
05:42
(Laughter笑声)
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05:45
I was so arrogant傲慢, and I was so wrong错误.
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我太骄傲了，而且大错特错。
我的意思是，尽管债务危机发生了，
05:48
I mean, while the debt债务 crisis危机 happened发生,
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05:50
the stock股票 market市场 and the economy经济
went去 up rather宁 than going down,
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股市和经济却都在上涨，而非下降，
05:54
and I lost丢失 so much money钱
for myself我 and for my clients客户
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我损失了自己和客户的大量资金，
05:59
that I had to shut关闭 down
my operation手术 pretty漂亮 much,
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不得不关闭整个公司，
06:03
I had to let almost几乎 everybody每个人 go.
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遣散所有的员工。
06:05
And these were like extended扩展 family家庭,
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这是一个延伸的大家庭，
我的心都要碎了。
06:07
I was heartbroken肠断.
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我本人也损失惨重，
06:09
And I had lost丢失 so much money钱
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06:10
that I had to borrow借
4,000 dollars美元 from my dad爸
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不得不向我父亲借了4000美元
来支付家庭的日常开支。
06:14
to help to pay工资 my family家庭 bills票据.
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06:16
It was one of the most最 painful痛苦
experiences经验 of my life ...
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这是我人生经历中
最惨痛的一次经历。。。
06:21
but it turned转身 out to be
one of the greatest最大 experiences经验 of my life
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同时也成为我人生经历中
最珍贵的一次经历，
06:25
because it changed变 my attitude态度
about decision-making做决定.
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因为它改变了我对决策的态度。
06:28
Rather宁 than thinking思维, "I'm right,"
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不再去想，“我是正确的”，
06:31
I started开始 to ask问 myself我,
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我现在开始询问自己
06:33
"How do I know I'm right?"
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“你如何才知道自己是正确的？”
06:36
I gained获得 a humility谦逊 that I needed需要
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为了平衡我的鲁莽，
06:38
in order订购 to balance平衡 my audacity大胆.
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我学会了什么是谦卑。
06:41
I wanted to find the smartest最聪明的
people who would disagree不同意 with me
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我需要找到最聪明的人来反驳我，
06:46
to try to understand理解 their其 perspective透视
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以此来理解他们的观点，
或者来测试我的观点。
06:48
or to have them
stress强调 test测试 my perspective透视.
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06:51
I wanted to make an idea理念 meritocracy任人唯贤.
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我称之为“精英对话”。
换个说法是，
06:54
In other words话,
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不利用自己的权利来带领其他人，
06:55
not an autocracy专制 in which哪一个
I would lead铅 and others其他 would follow跟随
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06:59
and not a democracy民主 in which哪一个 everybody's每个人的
points点 of view视图 were equally一样 valued价值,
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也不是每个人都能
平等说出自己观点的民主氛围，
07:02
but I wanted to have an idea理念 meritocracy任人唯贤
in which哪一个 the best最好 ideas思路 would win赢得 out.
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而是用精英对话的方式，
来得到最好的点子。
为了实现这一点，
07:08
And in order订购 to do that,
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07:09
I realized实现 that we would need
radical激进 truthfulness真实性
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我意识到公司需要完全的信任，
07:12
and radical激进 transparency透明度.
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完全的透明，
07:14
What I mean by radical激进 truthfulness真实性
and radical激进 transparency透明度
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我指的绝对诚实和绝对透明，
07:18
is people needed需要 to say
what they really believed相信
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是指人们能表达出自己的真实想法，
07:21
and to see everything.
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能看得更加全面。
07:23
And we literally按照字面
tape胶带 almost几乎 all conversations对话
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我们会记录下所有的对话，
让每个人都能看清一切，
07:27
and let everybody每个人 see everything,
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如果我们不这么做，
07:29
because if we didn't do that,
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就不能实现真正的精英管理。
07:30
we couldn't不能 really have
an idea理念 meritocracy任人唯贤.
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07:34
In order订购 to have an idea理念 meritocracy任人唯贤,
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为了达到这个目的，
07:38
we have let people speak说话
and say what they want.
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我们需要让人们自由表达。
07:40
Just to give you an example例,
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这里有个例子，
这是一封Jim Haskel
写给我的电子邮件——
07:42
this is an email电子邮件 from Jim吉姆 HaskelHaskel --
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07:45
somebody谁 who works作品 for me --
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Jim 是我的员工——
07:46
and this was available可得到
to everybody每个人 in the company公司.
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公司中任何人都可以这样做。
07:49
"Ray射线, you deserve值得 a 'D-'' D '
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“Ray，针对你今天在会上的表现，
只能给你评个D-，
07:52
for your performance性能
today今天 in the meeting会议 ...
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你根本没有做好准备，
07:54
you did not prepare准备 at all well
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07:56
because there is no way
you could have been that disorganized杂乱无章."
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从来没有哪次会议
组织得这么混乱。“
08:01
Isn't that great?
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是不是很棒？
08:02
(Laughter笑声)
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（笑）
的确很棒。
08:04
That's great.
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因为首先，我需要这样的反馈。
08:05
It's great because, first of all,
I needed需要 feedback反馈 like that.
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我需要像这样的反馈。
08:08
I need feedback反馈 like that.
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08:09
And it's great because if I don't let Jim吉姆,
and people like Jim吉姆,
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如果我不支持Jim或者其他人
08:13
to express表现 their其 points点 of view视图,
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自由表达自己的观点，
我们的关系就会变得不同了。
08:14
our relationship关系 wouldn't不会 be the same相同.
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08:17
And if I didn't make that public上市
for everybody每个人 to see,
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如果我不让每个人都能看见，
这就不是精英对话。
08:20
we wouldn't不会 have an idea理念 meritocracy任人唯贤.
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08:23
So for that last 25 years年份
that's how we've我们已经 been operating操作.
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我们这样做了25年，
08:27
We've我们已经 been operating操作
with this radical激进 transparency透明度
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保持绝对透明，
08:30
and then collecting搜集 these principles原则,
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凭着这样的原则，
08:33
largely大部分 from making制造 mistakes错误,
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避免了重大错误，
08:35
and then embedding嵌入
those principles原则 into algorithms算法.
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于是我们把这个原则植入了算法中。
算法向我们证明了——
08:39
And then those algorithms算法 provide提供 --
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我们可以跟随算法做决策，
08:42
we're following以下 the algorithms算法
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08:44
in parallel平行 with our thinking思维.
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同时也运用我们自己的思考。
08:47
That has been how we've我们已经 run跑
the investment投资 business商业,
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这就是我们如何经营投资公司，
以及如何管理员工。
08:50
and it's how we also也 deal合同
with the people management管理.
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08:53
In order订购 to give you a glimmer微光
into what this looks容貌 like,
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为了让你们更好的理解我的意思，
08:57
I'd like to take you into a meeting会议
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我想邀请大家参加一个会议，
看看我们的工具“网络收集者”
08:59
and introduce介绍 you to a tool工具 of ours我们的
called叫 the "Dot点 Collector收藏家"
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是如何帮助我们完成目标的。
09:02
that helps帮助 us do this.
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09:07
A week周 after the US election选举,
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在美国大选一周后，
我们的调查团队开了个会，
09:09
our research研究 team球队 held保持 a meeting会议
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09:11
to discuss讨论 what a Trump王牌 presidency总统任期
would mean for the US economy经济.
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讨论特朗普当选
对美国经济意味着什么。
09:16
Naturally自然, people had
different不同 opinions意见 on the matter物
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很自然的，人们对此有很多不同观点，
我们如何进行这次讨论呢？
09:18
and how we were
approaching接近 the discussion讨论.
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09:21
The "Dot点 Collector收藏家" collects收集 these views意见.
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“网络收集器”收集观点
09:24
It has a list名单 of a few少数 dozen打 attributes属性,
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其中列举了几十个属性，
只要思考其他人的想法
09:26
so whenever每当 somebody谁 thinks想 something
about another另一个 person's人的 thinking思维,
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09:31
it's easy简单 for them
to convey传达 their其 assessment评定;
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就很容易交换评价。
属性提供从1-10的评价系统。
09:33
they simply只是 note注意 the attribute属性
and provide提供 a rating评分 from one to 10.
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09:39
For example例, as the meeting会议 began开始,
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比如，会议开始时，
09:41
a researcher研究员 named命名 Jen仁 rated额定 me a three三 --
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调查者Jen给我的评分是3——
09:45
in other words话, badly惨 --
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换句话说，很糟——
09:47
(Laughter笑声)
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（笑）
在开放和自信的
平衡方面做得不好。
09:49
for not showing展示 a good balance平衡
of open-mindedness开明 and assertiveness独断.
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09:54
As the meeting会议 transpired蒸腾,
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随着会议继续进行，
09:55
Jen's珍的 assessments评估 of people
added添加 up like this.
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Jen也对其他人也会做出评价，
09:59
Others其他 in the room房间
have different不同 opinions意见.
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屋里其他人有各自不同的观点。
10:02
That's normal正常.
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这很正常。
10:03
Different不同 people are always
going to have different不同 opinions意见.
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不同人总有不同观点，
10:06
And who knows知道 who's谁是 right?
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怎么分辨谁对谁错呢？
10:09
Let's look at just what people thought
about how I was doing.
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只关注一下人们对我的评价。
10:13
Some people thought I did well,
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一些人认为我做的很好，
10:15
others其他, poorly不好.
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另外一些人认为很糟。
10:18
With each每 of these views意见,
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依据不同的观点，
10:19
we can explore探索 the thinking思维
behind背后 the numbers数字.
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我们能探索数字背后的原因。
10:22
Here's这里的 what Jen仁 and Larry拉里 said.
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这是Jen和Larry说的。
10:25
Note注意 that everyone大家
gets得到 to express表现 their其 thinking思维,
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每人都有机会表达想法，
包括他们的评判式思考，
10:28
including包含 their其 critical危急 thinking思维,
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无论他们在公司里的地位如何。
10:30
regardless而不管 of their其 position位置
in the company公司.
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10:33
Jen仁, who's谁是 24 years年份 old旧
and right out of college学院,
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Jen，24岁，刚从学校毕业，
10:36
can tell me, the CEOCEO,
that I'm approaching接近 things terribly可怕.
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她能告诉我，他们的CEO，
在解决问题方面很糟。
10:40
This tool工具 helps帮助 people
both都 express表现 their其 opinions意见
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这个工具帮助人们自由表达，
10:44
and then separate分离 themselves他们自己
from their其 opinions意见
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把观点和个人分离开，
10:47
to see things from a higher更高 level水平.
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从更高层次看问题。
10:50
When Jen仁 and others其他 shift转移 their其 attentions注意事项
from inputting输入 their其 own拥有 opinions意见
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当Jen和其他人交换观点
10:55
to looking down on the whole整个 screen屏幕,
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并纵览整个屏幕，
他们的观念就会发生转变。
10:58
their其 perspective透视 changes变化.
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11:00
They see their其 own拥有 opinions意见
as just one of many许多
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他们看出自己代表的
仅仅是其中的一部分观点，
11:03
and naturally自然 start开始 asking问 themselves他们自己,
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自然会开始自问，
“我怎么知道我的观点是正确的呢？”
11:06
"How do I know my opinion意见 is right?"
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11:09
That shift转移 in perspective透视 is like going
from seeing眼看 in one dimension尺寸
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观点的转变就像只从一个维度
11:13
to seeing眼看 in multiple多 dimensions尺寸.
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看多维空间。
11:15
And it shifts转变 the conversation会话
from arguing争论 over our opinions意见
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谈话从争论各种观点，转变成了
11:19
to figuring盘算 out objective目的 criteria标准
for determining决定 which哪一个 opinions意见 are best最好.
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找到客观标准来决定
哪个观点最好。
11:24
Behind背后 the "Dot点 Collector收藏家"
is a computer电脑 that is watching观看.
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在“网络收集器”的背后，
计算机正在观察
11:29
It watches手表 what all
these people are thinking思维
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所有这些人在想什么，
并与他们如何思考相关联。
11:31
and it correlates相关因素 that
with how they think.
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基于这些谈话反馈，
11:33
And it communicates相通 advice忠告
back to each每 of them based基于 on that.
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11:38
Then it draws平 the data数据
from all the meetings会议
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从所有会议中抽取数据，
11:41
to create创建 a pointilistpointilist painting绘画
of what people are like
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对人们的特点和他们的想法
做出数据点图。
11:45
and how they think.
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11:47
And it does that guided引导 by algorithms算法.
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这个过程由算法引导，
11:50
Knowing会心 what people are like helps帮助
to match比赛 them better with their其 jobs工作.
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了解人们的特点可以
帮助他们更好的与工作进行匹配。
11:55
For example例,
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例如，
创造性思想家不太靠谱，
11:56
a creative创作的 thinker思想家 who is unreliable靠不住
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也许可以匹配一个靠谱
但是无创造性的人。
11:58
might威力 be matched匹配 up with someone有人
who's谁是 reliable可靠 but not creative创作的.
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12:02
Knowing会心 what people are like
also也 allows允许 us to decide决定
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知道其他人的想法，
也让我们能够决定
12:05
what responsibilities责任 to give them
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应该赋予他们怎样的责任，
并基于人们的优势
来权衡我们的决策。
12:07
and to weigh称重 our decisions决定
based基于 on people's人们 merits优点.
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12:12
We call it their其 believability可信度.
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我们称之为他们的“可依赖度”。
12:14
Here's这里的 an example例 of a vote投票 that we took拿
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这里有个我们投票的例子，
大部分人同意一个方案——
12:16
where the majority多数
of people felt毡 one way ...
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12:20
but when we weighed称重 the views意见
based基于 on people's人们 merits优点,
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但当我们根据各自优势来权衡时，
12:23
the answer回答 was completely全然 different不同.
256
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答案就不同了。
12:26
This process处理 allows允许 us to make decisions决定
not based基于 on democracy民主,
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这个过程让我们做决定的时候
不再基于民主，
12:31
not based基于 on autocracy专制,
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不基于专制，
仅基于考虑人们可依赖度的算法。
12:33
but based基于 on algorithms算法 that take
people's人们 believability可信度 into consideration考虑.
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12:41
Yup对, we really do this.
260
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没错，我们就是这样做的。
12:43
(Laughter笑声)
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（笑）
12:46
We do it because it eliminates消除
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因为这消除了
12:49
what I believe to be
one of the greatest最大 tragedies悲剧 of mankind人类,
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人性中最大的悲剧，
就是人类的自大、
12:53
and that is people arrogantly傲慢,
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12:56
na呐ïvelyvely holding保持 opinions意见
in their其 minds头脑 that are wrong错误,
265
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天真，自以为是的
持有错误的观点，
并执行它，
13:01
and acting演戏 on them,
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而不放在压力环境中进行测试，
13:02
and not putting把 them out there
to stress强调 test测试 them.
267
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13:06
And that's a tragedy悲剧.
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就会产生悲剧。
13:07
And we do it because it elevates提升 ourselves我们自己
above以上 our own拥有 opinions意见
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我们相信这样做会提升自己，
开始从别人眼中看问题，
13:12
so that we start开始 to see things
through通过 everybody's每个人的 eyes眼睛,
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13:15
and we see things collectively统.
271
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用集体方式的看待问题。
13:18
Collective集体 decision-making做决定 is so much
better than individual个人 decision-making做决定
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如果运用良好，集体决策比个人决策
要好很多。
13:22
if it's doneDONE well.
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13:24
It's been the secret秘密 sauce酱
behind背后 our success成功.
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这就是我们成功背后的秘密武器。
正因为如此，对比其他对冲基金公司，
13:27
It's why we've我们已经 made制作
more money钱 for our clients客户
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13:29
than any other hedge树篱 fund基金 in existence存在
276
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1936
我们可以为客户赚更多钱。
13:31
and made制作 money钱
23 out of the last 26 years年份.
277
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26年中有23年都是如此。
13:35
So what's the problem问题
with being存在 radically根本 truthful真实
278
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那么绝对信任和绝对透明的
13:40
and radically根本 transparent透明 with each每 other?
279
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问题是什么呢？
13:45
People say it's emotionally感情上 difficult难.
280
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人们认为从感情上很难接受。
13:48
Critics批评者 say it's a formula式
for a brutal野蛮 work environment环境.
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有批评家说这是
严酷工作环境的模式。
13:53
Neuroscientists神经学家 tell me it has to do
with how are brains大脑 are prewired预配.
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神经科学家告诉我，
这与大脑如何进行预先假设有关。
13:58
There's a part部分 of our brain脑
that would like to know our mistakes错误
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一部分大脑知道我们会犯错，
14:01
and like to look at our weaknesses弱点
so we could do better.
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直面缺点会让后我们变得更好。
14:06
I'm told that that's
the prefrontal前额叶 cortex皮质.
285
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这是前额皮层做的事情。
14:09
And then there's a part部分 of our brain脑
which哪一个 views意见 all of this as attacks攻击.
286
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4856
大脑的另外一部分
会将这些当成抨击的观点。
14:13
I'm told that that's the amygdala杏仁核.
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这是在大脑杏仁核区域发生的。
14:16
In other words话,
there are two you's你的 inside内 you:
288
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换句话说，有2个人在你体内，
14:19
there's an emotional情绪化 you
289
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一个极富情绪，
另一个很理智，
14:20
and there's an intellectual知识分子 you,
290
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1776
14:22
and often经常 they're at odds可能性,
291
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他们彼此常常互不相容，
14:24
and often经常 they work against反对 you.
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时常对抗你。
14:27
It's been our experience经验
that we can win赢得 this battle战斗.
293
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我们的经验表明，
我们可以赢得这场战争，
以团队的方式。
14:30
We win赢得 it as a group组.
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14:33
It takes about 18 months个月 typically一般
295
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通常需要18个月
14:35
to find that most最 people
prefer比较喜欢 operating操作 this way,
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去发现大部分人喜欢的方式，
14:38
with this radical激进 transparency透明度
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以完全透明，
而非隐蔽的环境中
进行公司改造。
14:40
than to be operating操作
in a more opaque不透明 environment环境.
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14:43
There's not politics政治,
there's not the brutality残酷 of --
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没有政治，没有野蛮——
14:48
you know, all of that hidden隐,
behind-the-scenes幕后的 --
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也就是没有任何暗箱操作——
人们可以畅所欲言的表达。
14:50
there's an idea理念 meritocracy任人唯贤
where people can speak说话 up.
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这样很好。
14:53
And that's been great.
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给我们更有效的工作，
14:54
It's given特定 us more effective有效 work,
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以及更有效的人际关系。
14:56
and it's given特定 us
more effective有效 relationships关系.
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14:59
But it's not for everybody每个人.
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但这并不适用于任何人。
15:01
We found发现 something like
25 or 30 percent百分 of the population人口
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我们发现有25%-30%的人
15:04
it's just not for.
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不适合这样做。
顺便提一句，
15:06
And by the way,
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当我说绝对透明，
15:07
when I say radical激进 transparency透明度,
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15:09
I'm not saying话 transparency透明度
about everything.
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不是指对任何事情都绝对透明。
15:11
I mean, you don't have to tell somebody谁
that their其 bald秃 spot点 is growing生长
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你不需要告诉别人
他们秃顶越来越严重，
或者他们的孩子很难看。
15:15
or their其 baby's宝宝 ugly丑陋.
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15:17
So, I'm just talking说 about --
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我的意思是——
（笑）
15:19
(Laughter笑声)
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15:20
talking说 about the important重要 things.
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重要的事情。
所以——
15:22
So --
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15:24
(Laughter笑声)
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（笑）
15:28
So when you leave离开 this room房间,
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当你离开这间屋子，
15:30
I'd like you to observe守 yourself你自己
in conversations对话 with others其他.
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我希望你在与他人交流时
能仔细观察自己，
15:35
Imagine想像 if you knew知道
what they were really thinking思维,
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想象如果你能真正理解他人的思想，
15:39
and imagine想像 if you knew知道
what they were really like ...
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真正理解他人的特质，
15:43
and imagine想像 if they knew知道
what you were really thinking思维
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想象他们能真正理解你的思想，
15:47
and what were really like.
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理解你的特质。
15:50
It would certainly当然 clear明确 things up a lot
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这样一来一定会
帮你理清很多事情，
15:52
and make your operations操作
together一起 more effective有效.
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使得你们在一起合作更加高效。
15:55
I think it will improve提高
your relationships关系.
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我想这样也会促进你们的关系。
15:58
Now imagine想像 that you can have algorithms算法
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现在想象，你有一些算法
16:01
that will help you gather收集
all of that information信息
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帮助你收集信息，
16:05
and even help you make decisions决定
in an idea-meritocratic理念，精英 way.
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甚至帮助你做出优选决策。
16:12
This sort分类 of radical激进 transparency透明度
is coming未来 at you
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这样绝对透明的时代马上就要到来，
16:17
and it is going to affect影响 your life.
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影响你的生活。
16:19
And in my opinion意见,
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依我的拙见，
前途是光明的。
16:21
it's going to be wonderful精彩.
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我希望这个方法对你有帮助，
16:23
So I hope希望 it is as wonderful精彩 for you
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就如同我们所收获的一样。
16:25
as it is for me.
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16:27
Thank you very much.
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十分感谢。
（鼓掌）
16:28
(Applause掌声)
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Translated by xiao gu

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ray Dalio - Hedge fund chair
Ray Dalio is the founder, chair and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, a global leader in institutional portfolio management and the largest hedge fund in the world.

Why you should listen

Dalio started Bridgewater out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York City in 1975 and has grown it into the fifth most important private company in the U.S. (according to Fortune magazine). Because of the firm’s many industry-changing innovations over its 40-year history, he has been called the “Steve Jobs of investing” by aiCIO magazine and named one of TIME magazine’s "100 Most Influential People."

Dalio attributes Bridgewater’s success to its unique culture. He describes it as “a believability-weighted idea meritocracy” in which the people strive for “meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency.” He has explained this approach in his book Principles, which has been downloaded more than three million times and has produced considerable curiosity and controversy.

More profile about the speaker
Ray Dalio | Speaker | TED.com
THE ORIGINAL VIDEO ON TED.COM